THINK Global: Outlets - TH Real Estate

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THINK Global: Outlets - TH Real Estate
THINK Global: Outlets

                                                                                                         a nuveen company

                                                                                   Data generating art
                                                                                   This image is an abstract representation of Fig.3 and
                                                                                   Fig.4, illustrating exceptional sales density and prime
THIS IS AN OPINION PIECE. PLEASE REFER TO DISCLOSURES FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION.   yields across Europe.

                                                                                                                  THINK Global: Outlets      1
THINK Global: Outlets - TH Real Estate
Introduction

Designer outlets have been one of the most widely misunderstood, but strongest performing, real estate sectors in Europe over the
past decade. Relatively speaking, they thrived during the global economic downturn. So what are outlet malls and what is so special
about them? Typically, they are single storey, village-style retail centres, selling goods at a 30-70% discount. They do, however, come
in all shapes and sizes, and naturally vary in quality. Ownership is largely accounted for by a few major players who tend to manage
the better schemes, plus a larger group of single or small portfolio owners.

This specialist division of the retail market is relatively immature - as both a shopping concept and an investment opportunity. This is
changing as retailing becomes more international and demand for luxury goods increases globally in line with the burgeoning middle-
classes. The sector is already popular with shoppers and tourists, and the best schemes generate among the strongest sales densities
of any retail destination. Retailers, enticed by the strong footfall and sales, are increasingly including outlets in their portfolio strategy.
In turn, the sector is attracting a wider pool of investors.

The sector is considered niche as an investment class – a word often associated with risk – but it is in fact underpinned by sound drivers
of performance, and should continue to enjoy structural growth globally. In fact, unlike other core real estate sectors, where market
cycles have become more pronounced, designer outlets have proved to be relatively immune to cyclical economic and real estate
market swings.

In this report, we examine the history of the outlet mall sector and its relative attractiveness to consumers, retailers and investors
across different parts of the globe. These are high quality, well-managed assets with a strong presence of international brands, and
not warehouses or sheds selling goods of a dubious origin.

Note: Real estate investments are subject to various risks, including fluctuations in property values, higher expenses or lower income than expected, and potential environmental problems
and liability. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity particularly where the underlying asset comprises real estate, differing levels of
government regulation and tax implications in some jurisdictions, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments.

                                                                                                                                                                                    THINK Global: Outlets   2
THINK Global: Outlets - TH Real Estate
Introduction (continued)

It is always interesting to compare sector differences and similarities across global property markets, and interestingly – aside from
prime offices in financial capitals – outlets are the most globally homogenous in terms of their physical, occupational and performance
characteristics; or at least the successful ones are.

This is not entirely surprising; the occupier base is heavily     Retailers are attracted to:
biased towards international occupiers. Sought-after, well-       • High levels of footfall traffic
recognised brands make schemes appealing and draw
                                                                  • Strong sales densities
shoppers from extensive catchment areas. The brands don’t
need to be ‘luxury’, but should be identifiable by today’s        • Good rent affordability and low entry costs
aspirational customer. In Europe and the US, a mix of domestic
                                                                  • A reputable channel for disposing of surplus stock
and international brands makes for the optimal shopping
experience, therefore creating the most compelling offer.         For investors, outlets offer:
While in Asia Pacific, the more luxurious international brands,   • A defensive investment with relatively low levels of volatility,
the better.                                                         as witnessed during the last economic downturn
                                                                  • Outperformance - good quality assets, where data is
Outlets tick all the boxes in terms of what today’s cost-
                                                                    available, have outperformed in their sales growth, rental
conscious, yet discerning, consumer is looking for:
                                                                    growth and investment returns
• Value - not cheap, but the best price for the goods
  in question                                                     • Improving covenant quality as the sector attracts
                                                                    stronger brands
• Choice - a wide range of brands not found in traditional
  shopping centres                                                • Good investment value compared to traditional shopping
                                                                    centres and high street
• Experience – inspiring architecture creates a sense of place,
  while catering, entertainment and services, increase dwell      • Potential to drive performance through asset management
  time and loyalty                                                  and marketing

• Environment – a clean, safe shopping experience                 • A retail investment which is defensive in light of the
                                                                    ongoing diversion of sales to the internet; this is a shopping
                                                                    experience that is very difficult to replicate online
                                                                  • A lease designed to promote growth

                                                                                                                                       THINK Global: Outlets   3
THINK Global: Outlets - TH Real Estate
The evolution of outlet malls: Factory to designer outlet

The factory outlet industry has been around, in various forms, for over 100 years. The industry began when clothing and textile
stores offered excess and damaged goods to their employees, eventually opening their doors to customers. In 1975, the first
purpose-built outlet centre opened in the US and while the definition of an outlet mall is somewhat elastic, there now are close to
400 schemes in the US.
The second wave of development came in the 1980s and              Factory outlets were initially designed with minimal style,
1990s, when designer outlets were first introduced to Europe.     poor merchandising and basic shop fittings, located in                Common themes
There are around 250 designer outlet malls across Europe          industrial or manufacturing areas and often near the original
                                                                                                                                        • Typically located within 45-60 minutes’ drive of
currently in existence, although development density varies.      manufacturers’ production sites. By contrast, modern designer
                                                                                                                                          a large city
                                                                  outlet centres provide consumers with high value, branded
While the UK and Italy are close to saturation, restrictive       goods at attractive, discounted prices, situated in a welcoming       • Prime schemes are generally 20,000-50,000
planning laws mean countries like Germany are considerably        and safe environment.                                                   sq m with 100-200 brands
under-represented. In Central and Eastern Europe, the market
is in its infancy but most countries have a handful of schemes    Mirroring the mainstream retail market, polarisation of               • Village style malls are increasingly popular
or developments underway. Designer outlet operators are now       demand for the designer outlet market has favoured the                • Attractive leasing structure: the higher of
casting their eyes further eastwards to Asia, most notably        better presented and maintained schemes. Well-executed                  guaranteed minimum base rent + CPI or
to China.                                                         outlets provide a pleasurable, compelling and rewarding visit           percentage of tenants’ turnover
                                                                  for consumers. Recognising shopping as a leisure activity,
In the most rapid growth cycle, between the late 1980s and the    designer outlet centres are improving their catering facilities       • 3-5 year leases - subject to local legislation
late 1990s, the number of outlet malls increased dramatically.    to enhance the overall experience, increase dwell time and            • Luxury and premium brands accelerate
Since then, there has been a slowing of development, with a       boost spend.                                                            performance
bias towards larger centres and the closing of smaller centres
or single brand locations.                                        Like their full price counterparts, outlet malls vary significantly   • Sales densities of prime quality assets range
                                                                  in size and quality. Common characteristics for institutional           from €6,000-€15,000 per sq m (some super
For manufacturers and retailers, designer outlets provide         investment class outlets include dominance, critical mass, a            prime assets outperforming this range) with full
a profitable, and reputable channel for the sale of surplus       large catchment area, a strong brand mix and - perhaps most             transparency on tenant trading information
merchandise direct to consumers - generally last season’s         importantly - partnership with a successful operator.
excess, outdated and returned stock. They now sell a wide                                                                               • Low voids
range of retail goods - mainly clothing, footwear, accessories,                                                                         • Brands have embraced the outlet mall concept
gifts and home decor products - to bargain-hunting consumers                                                                              and have a dedicated outlet mall business
at discounts from RRP of between 30-70%.
                                                                                                                                        • Intensive asset management approach

                                                                                                                                                                       THINK Global: Outlets   4
The global supply story

There are large differences in outlet mall provision globally. The US – the most mature market –
is relatively oversupplied with supply levels per capita well ahead of any other market. According     Observations of the Australian market
to the International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC), the number of new outlet mall openings
                                                                                                       The concept was first introduced in 1997 - DFO at Moorabbin - and initially the
has slowed significantly in recent years. It is also observed that many smaller schemes have
                                                                                                       sector was aimed at low-income households selling faulty stock at bargain prices.
ceased to be viable as retailers and shoppers focus their demand on the best, largest schemes.
                                                                                                       Over time, the offer has become increasingly focused on middle-to high-income
In the US, opportunities remain in the sector, but sales at outlet malls are likely to be highly
                                                                                                       earners with a higher price positioning. The most recent schemes have a relatively
polarised.
                                                                                                       high-end and increasingly younger offering.
Development in the European market is also slowing and supply levels remain comfortably
                                                                                                       There is an estimated 504,000 sq m of outlet space in Australia, representing just
behind those in North America. With restrictive planning legislation, oversupply is unlikely to be
                                                                                                       2.0% of the retail market. Schemes are generally bigger than in Europe at 28,000
an issue. As growing demand for outlet space as the sector grows in popularity, and cross-border
                                                                                                       sq m on average and less homogeneous in appearance. They are typically located
expansion continues apace, a healthy demand/supply balance will persist.
                                                                                                       near airports - where the slacker planning laws are attractive - or in tourist
There are now approximately 250 centres across Europe with varying levels of maturity in               destinations. Some schemes have been repositioned from underperforming full-
different countries. The UK remains Europe’s most developed market with 38 outlet centres, and         price centres.
10 sq m of space per 1,000 inhabitants. This remains below the US average, but is well supplied
compared to other European markets, such as Germany, which has very low levels of just three
                                                                                                       Australia’s best-performing outlets deliver healthy sales densities and are
sq m per 1,000 inhabitants. This suggests further opportunities for growth or development.
                                                                                                       enjoying strong growth. This should be further supported by a growing number of
                                                                                                       premium brands seeking representation in the Australian market.
Asia Pacific is still in the early growth phase with its provision of outlets - at least as we would
recognise them - remaining very low. In China, supply per capita is one of the lowest globally.
                                                                                                       While evidence is scarce, the sector would appear to offer good investment value
Sales performance at new, strong schemes is testimony to this with densities up there with the
                                                                                                       in Australia. Opportunities to improve the retail offer, promote the sector to both
very best in Europe, after only a few years of trading, as illustrated in Fig.2. The development
                                                                                                       shoppers and tenants, and drive sales through a more aggressive operational
pipeline in China is not insignificant, but the provision of high-quality/high-end schemes will
                                                                                                       model should make the sector a compelling investment opportunity, with potential
struggle to meet the insatiable demand for luxury goods from Chinese consumers. Japan is the
                                                                                                       for a structural repositioning in the retail hierarchy.
most established market in Asia.

                                                                                                                                                                    THINK Global: Outlets    5
The global supply story (continued)

   Fig.1: Global outlet mall provision

                          90,000

                          80,000               China

                          70,000

                          60,000
Average size GLA (sq m)

                          50,000
                                                           Hong Kong

                          40,000                                                                                      Turkey
                                                                                                                                            United States   South Korea
                                            Mexico                      Japan          Italy
                          30,000
                                                                                                          Austria
                                               Germany                                                                         Australia
                          20,000
                                   Russia
                                                                                 United
                          10,000                                                Kingdom

                              0
                                                          5.0                   10.0               15.0                        20.0        25.0                 30.0                       35.0

                                                                                               Outlet space per 1,000 capita
  Key
    North America                            Europe      Asia Pacific

  Source: TH Real Estate, Japan Council of Shopping Centres, 2018
  Note: Size of the bubble represents total GLA.

                                                                                                                                                                   THINK Global: Outlets     6
The investment case for outlets

Outlet malls are a much less established investment concept when compared to full price shopping centres, with many investment
professionals feeling the sector falls outside of their area of expertise. However, extremely strong performance, relative to the full
price retail sector over the last few years, has pushed this niche segment of the retail market into the spotlight, with an increased
number of investors active in the sector or seeking to gain access.

The case for investing in the outlet mall sector is expected to remain compelling over the medium- to long-term for the following reasons:
• A sector with defensive qualities                                                              • Strong investor demand putting pressure on yields
• Sales underpinned by long-term consumer trends                                                 • Growing retailer demand and limited supply which support growth
Each of these is explored in detail on the following pages.

McArthurGlen Designer Outlet Serravalle, Italy

                                                                                                                                                                     THINK Global: Outlets   7
A sector with defensive qualities

The sector should remain resilient in a low economic growth environment with
a strong upside potential for growth. Having come out from the depths of the          Fig.2: Progression of sales densities (after opening)
Global Financial Crisis (GFC), most major economies are enjoying the feeling
of recovery with positive – albeit modest - growth in GDP almost across the           Strong sales growth as schemes mature and grow in popularity
board. Investors appear confident that the global economy is broadly healthy
and although financial market volatility remains heightened, cautious optimism
exists. While economic data generally points to the positive, momentum is
expected to be gentle. Growth over the medium-term is expected to be slower                                          $12,000
than in the years prior to the recession. The outlook for retail sales growth is no

                                                                                      Average spend per sq m (US$)
different – we do not expect to see pre-crisis rates of credited fuelled spending                                    $10,000
growth any time soon. Rental growth across the retail sector will be modest,                                                                                       China
and outperformance will have to come from asset management and smart
                                                                                                                     $8,000
stock selection – picking those assets that are growing in attractiveness to both
shoppers and tenants.
                                                                                                                     $6,000
Data recorded across prime European outlet malls shows strong sales growth
which has outperformed the market average consistently over the past decade.
                                                                                                                     $4,000
In particular, the sector demonstrated excellent resilience to the poor market
conditions of 2008-2009. During this period, outlet sales did slow, but only fell
into negative territory for one quarter during 2009, when sales fell by 0.5%                                         $2,000
compared to the European average of -5.4%. This supports the expectation
that the outlet mall sector will remain resilient in a low growth environment.
                                                                                                                         $0
While outlets are more defensive during an economic downturn, a stronger
retail market will support strong turnover performance, with outlets typically                                                 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13
enjoying two or three times the market average rate of growth.
                                                                                      Key
This sector is well placed to outperform in both periods of strong and weak                                    European country A             European country B     European country C      European country D
economic growth – defensive on the downside, with a large upside potential.
In poor economic times, we believe outlets benefit from a more cost-conscious         Source: TH Real Estate, 2018
consumer and surplus stock on the high street, meaning retailers are
channelling more goods through this medium. During a buoyant economic
period, the sector benefits from growth in tourism, a greater propensity to
shop and enjoy a day out, as well as a boost to demand for luxury goods.

                                                                                                                                                                                                     THINK Global: Outlets   8
Sales underpinned by long-term consumer trends

Discerning, yet value-conscious, consumers have a growing awareness
and demand for international and luxury brands. The GFC, coupled with                What about the internet?
improved pricing transparency - via the internet - and heavy discounting on
                                                                                     Multi-channel retailing is having a dramatic impact on the way we shop and how retailers trade.
the high street, has undoubtedly created more value-conscious shoppers
                                                                                     This is a structural change and a global trend which is here to stay. Quite simply, online retailing
globally. Customers now expect to find discounts in-store or will use the internet
                                                                                     means weaker demand for physical retail space. Shoppers have more choice and less need to visit
to seek out the best priced products. However, retailers trading in full-price
                                                                                     a store and, in theory, retailers can service their customers without the presence of a store. Given
centres cannot offer discounted products indefinitely and remain profitable.
                                                                                     the ease and convenience of internet retailing, ‘bricks and mortar’ retail assets need to work
The outlet mall model, which is based on discounting, is well-positioned to
                                                                                     harder to capture footfall. Stores will remain a vital part of the retail market, however customer
grow its share of the value-conscious market. And this is reflected in the
                                                                                     ‘experience’ is crucial to staying ahead of online competition.
growing footfall at prime outlets. Consumer insight data conducted across
McArthurGlen’s European outlet mall portfolio identified ‘permanent discounts        Online retail sales have grown rapidly over the last few years; although internet penetration
between 30-70%’ as the top reason for visiting. Clearly the issue of value           varies considerably across geographies, outlets provide a ‘shopping experience’ which is
is extremely important and shoppers will be prepared to travel significant           very difficult to replicate online. Prime outlets which have always been successful in offering
distances, even overseas, in pursuit of value if the quality and range of brands     customers a ‘day out’ are those with attractive architecture, pristine shopping environments
on offer is superior enough.                                                         and multiple customer services to enhance the experience. The majority of outlet customers
Indeed, the same consumer insight data also suggested that the availability
                                                                                     consider shopping a leisure activity that cannot be replaced by the internet. Outlet operators
of brands followed closely behind value as a popular reason for visiting
                                                                                     have invested in enhanced catering facilities to increase dwell time, alongside marketing events –
outlets. Outlets typically have a broader range of brands, both domestic and
                                                                                     such as music concerts, seasonal themes and farmers markets - which improve footfall. It is this
international, than those found in traditional shopping centres, widening their
                                                                                     combination of retail theatre, events and the quality of brand mix which create internet-proof
appeal to consumers and increasing catchment sizes. This is an area where
                                                                                     retail destinations.
prime outlets have seen marked improvements in recent years, as increasing           The outlet sector also attracts a higher proportion of tourism spend, which will remain unaffected
numbers of premium and luxury brands have recognised outlets as a key                by growth in online retailing. In addition, online retailing remains dominated by electrical goods,
distribution channel, and international retailers have expanded their global         books, music and furniture. Fashion and footwear, which accounts for the majority of the offer at
presence. Shopper behaviour is heavily influenced by branding, and                   an outlet, represents a comparatively smaller proportion of online sales simply because people
the influence of luxury and lifestyle brands is apparent when analysing              want to touch and feel these items.
trading data and destination popularity.
                                                                                     Designer outlet malls are for people who love to shop and therefore the internet is not an
                                                                                     attractive alternative. We believe outlet malls are the most defensive part of the physical retail
                                                                                     market in light of the ongoing and irreversible diversion of sales to the internet.

                                                                                                                                                                    THINK Global: Outlets   9
Growing retailer demand and limited supply is supporting growth

Strong retailer demand, coupled with low supply and enhanced        At a time when wider economic performance cannot be
                                                                                                                                        Fig.3: Exceptional sales densities
asset management opportunities, support outperformance.             relied upon to drive retail property performance, the role
The strong consumer demand for the outlet sector is reflected       of asset management is vital and we believe the outlet
in the high levels of footfall traffic, extensive catchment areas   leasing model is more conducive to growth than its shopping         The top outlets are among the world’s best-performing
and strong sales densities. In turn, the strong occupier demand     centre counterpart. Greater flexibility in leases means that        shopping destinations
that accounts for very high occupancy rates is found at good        operators and landlords can respond to retailers specific local
quality outlets. Tier 1 assets have an average vacancy rate of      requirements, with optimal unit sizing or relocation of retailers    Quality                       Sales density per sq m (€)
just 2%.                                                            completed more easily.
                                                                                                                                         Super prime international     >10,000

The outlet mall sector is one of the few parts of the property      Generally speaking, the turnover lease component aligns the          Prime international           >6,000
market to deliver consistent positive rental growth over the        landlord’s interests with the retailer’s to optimise performance;
                                                                                                                                         Regional                      3,000 - 6,000
last decade. The key contributor to this growth is robust           slowing retail sales growth will encourage retailers to re-
demand from retailers and constrained supply of quality             fit stores, or landlords to increase marketing expenditure.          Local
Increasing investor demand and attractive pricing for the sector

Historic data shows that prime outlets have benefited from a        For example, the total outlet transaction volume in Europe
                                                                                                                                       Fig.4: Prime yields (European average over a 10-year
far less volatile yield profile, compared with other prime retail   for 2017 was estimated at approximately €1.7bn, compared to
assets. Pricing volatility has remained low as a result of the      shopping centre transactions of €21.0bn.                           period)
robust nature of the turnover performance and, in turn,
rental income.                                                      Long-term outlet transaction data suggests outlet transactions      7%
                                                                    represent just 3.2% of the total shopping centre market.
As well as reduced volatility, the outlet sector offers good        However, the sector should not be disregarded due to perceived      6%
investment value compared to more traditional property              illiquidity. Prime outlets, whilst rarely traded, are currently
sectors. The pricing of prime retail portfolios vary, however       receiving strong investor interest with record yields being         5%
analysis of long-term valuation yields from Q1 2008 - Q4            achieved. This is creating a long-term structural lowering of
2017 suggests a prime shopping centre in Europe commands            equilibrium yields for the sector, closing the gap on full-price    4%
a net initial yield of around 5.3%. At the time of writing, the     shopping centres.
shopping centre markets of France and Germany show much                                                                                 3%
keener yields at 3.25% and 3.80% respectively. The long-            Outlets offer investors the benefits of diversification in
term average yield for outlet malls for the same time horizon       reducing volatility in a balanced portfolio, given their low
                                                                                                                                        2%
was around 100bps higher than shopping centres at 6.4%,             correlation with other sectors. Retail markets generally
demonstrating the attractive pricing that investors have            demonstrate lower correlation with each other compared to
                                                                                                                                        1%
historically received for the sector, versus an equivalent for      office markets. Outlets, being less mature and less susceptible
full-price shopping centres. In Europe, we believe that outlets     to global economic conditions, offer even greater benefits
                                                                                                                                        0%
remain one of the best value property sectors, especially           from geographical diversification. We would expect outlets to                 Outlet    Shopping      Office         Shop
given the past performance of the asset class and its strong        contribute to both higher returns and lower volatility in a real               mall      centre
fundamentals, including strong projected turnover growth,           estate portfolio.
low voids and modest volatility. Historically, the sector has                                                                          Source: TH Real Estate, CBRE, Q1 2008 – Q4 2017
delivered excellent total returns, consistently outperforming
the INREV All Retail Index.

Reflecting the sector’s outperformance over the last 10
years, we have seen more investors enter the market. 2017
saw the highest level of outlet mall transactions in Europe
ever recorded, with volumes almost three times the long-
term average. However, the sector is small and investment
opportunities are rare, meaning overall transaction volumes
are always low compared to other sectors and do not reflect
the popularity of the sector with investors.

                                                                                                                                                                         THINK Global: Outlets   11
Conclusion

Outlet malls are expected to continue to grow in popularity, with shoppers seeking aspirational brands, good value and an exciting
shopping experience. The best schemes, controlled by the leading operators, will see footfall and sales densities improve through
structural changes in the retail market, and via the superior ability to drive performance through asset management.

In response to consumer behaviour and the associated footfall and sales potential, outlets will remain an important part of retailers’
store portfolios. Outlets can generate sales densities that are superior to traditional shopping centres or high streets, and they
also have a relatively low rental burden, offering good affordability. Turnover-based leases mean that tenants have the comfort
of ongoing affordability.

A leasing structure with aligned interest means that outlet operators can respond rapidly to both structural changes in the global
retail market and specific local retailer requirements. This is key to optimising tenant mix, the shopper experience and performance.

If a retail offer works for both the shopper and retailer, then it is likely it can work for an investor. While this is a small, specialist part
of the retail market, investors should not be deterred by perceived risk or illiquidity. It is underpinned by sound supply and demand
fundamentals, and offers some of the most attractive risk-adjusted returns in the real estate market – particularly in Europe and
Asia Pacific - as long as a reputable operator is in place.

Strong demand from international retailers means the occupier base is broadening and covenant quality is improving. Likewise, the
investor base is deepening. Constrained supply, coupled with growing demand, should see continued rental growth and a long-term
structural improvement in investment pricing globally.

                                                                                                                               THINK Global: Outlets   12
Case study: China

China has one of the most lucrative and fastest-growing retail     China is now the largest travel spender and a significant spend        The European discount luxury outlet chain Value
markets in the world. Retail sales growth in China has been        on luxury goods is diverted overseas. This is due to exchange          Retail, states that the company’s Bicester Village
consistently outstripping that of GDP growth over the last         rate savings, but surveys also cite perceived quality and choice       in Oxfordshire lures an estimated two-thirds of all
decade, averaging at 11.4% per annum. This growth has been         of product, as well as the overall shopping experience, as             Chinese visitors to Britain, making it one of the
fuelled by a rapid increase in disposable income, rather than      reasons for shopping abroad. Chinese spend accounts for a              top tourism destinations for Chinese visitors to
credit, which has driven sales growth in the US or UK, making      large proportion of sales at Europe’s top designer outlet malls.       the UK. Moreover, visitors from Greater China
it more sustainable. Urbanisation and the creation of wealth                                                                              spend more per transaction than shoppers from
has seen Chinese consumers’ focus shift from basic needs to        China is a particularly attractive growth market for luxury
                                                                                                                                          any other country.
improving their quality of life. Chinese consumers are brand       retailers due to its large population, high number of densely
conscious and will seek to celebrate their new found wealth        populated cities, growing affluence and consumers’ appetite
 with material goods.                                              for luxury and globally recognised brands. While more mature
                                                                   markets in North America and Europe are seeing flat or modest
The growth of retail sales in China is excellent, however an       levels of sales growth, emerging Asian markets are delivering       The challenge for international brands looking to enter the
area that we envisage delivering stronger growth still, is the     double digit growth per annum for some high-end retailers.          Chinese market will be the supply. It is reported that 80%
luxury goods sector. The growth in wealthy households and                                                                              of luxury stores are located in the largest 15 Chinese cities
millionaires - in US dollar terms - and the age profile of rich    China provides retailers with a growing source of fashion-          (measured by GDP), however, these cities only accounted for
consumers, makes a very strong case for growth in branded          conscious consumers with a growing interest in celebrity            25% of the wealthy population in the country. While there is no
fashion and luxury goods sales. The average age of a millionaire   culture. Young Chinese see luxury goods as a way to showcase        shortage of shopping centre space in Tier 1 cities in China, many
in China is almost 20 years younger than in the US or Europe,      their wealth and rising spending power. Chinese consumers like      schemes have been designed by local developers and do not
and younger shoppers have a much higher propensity to              the heritage and history behind brands such as Louis Vuitton        meet the requirements of international luxury retailers. Most
spend on fashion and accessories. Furthermore, most rich           and Hermes, and want to enhance their status and social             schemes have been developed for mass-market retailers. These
consumers have made their wealth themselves, and we believe        standing by wearing luxury items. The influence of Chinese          will often have a supermarket anchor which has little synergy
this demographic is more likely to celebrate their success with    shoppers on sales in London and Paris supports this. While          with luxury retailers. Retailers in any goods category benefit from
material goods, demonstrating different spending behaviour to      consumers in China are loyal to designers and labels, they are      being located within a cluster of like-minded retailers with critical
those who have inherited their wealth.                             also accepting of new brands as they continue to look for the       mass generating footfall of the right kind of consumer. Chinese
                                                                   next big designer to impress their peers with.                      cities do not offer historical high street retail pitches – like those
Female consumers have replaced male consumers to become key                                                                            found in European cities - where luxury labels benefit from
spenders in China’s luxury market. Bain & Company reported that    Luxury brands are typically more international than mass-           adjacency to similar brands. In the absence of suitable shopping
nowadays female shoppers comprise over 50% of all Chinese          market retailers, and their global business model will make Asian   centre space, many upmarket retailers and brands have used
luxury buyers - an enormous growth from 1995 when only             expansion less daunting than for retailers whose business has       department stores to gain representation in the Chinese market.
10% of luxury buyers were female. There is still much room for     historically been largely domestic. For luxury goods retailers
this trend to develop further, as over 65% of luxury goods are     entering the Chinese market, there is little domestic competition   There remains a clear gap in the Chinese market for landlords
purchased by women in the more mature European markets. As         to overcome, unlike in the mass-market sector where the power       to address the needs of luxury brands and the aspirations of
Chinese women are becoming richer and more independent, the        of domestic brands is not to be underestimated.                     wealthy consumers. As shoppers become more discerning, they
rebalancing of luxury goods consumption between female and                                                                             will increasingly demand more from their shopping experience,
male will continue.                                                                                                                    and will value the convenience of being able to shop for similar
                                                                                                                                       items in one location.

                                                                                                                                                                               THINK Global: Outlets      13
Key contacts

Alice Breheny                                  Angela Goodings                                    Haoran Wu
Global Head of Research                        Director of Research                               Research Analyst
T: +4420237278122                              T: +442037278147                                   T: +442037278231
E: alice.breheny@threalestate.com              E: angela.goodings@threalestate.com                E: haoran.wu@threalestate.com

threalestate.com
contact@threalestate.com
    @THRealEstate14

Issued by Nuveen Real Estate Management Limited (reg. no. 2137726), (incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3BN) which is
authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. Telephone calls may be recorded and monitored. This document is not directed at or
intended for any person (or entity) who is citizen or resident of (or located or established in) any jurisdiction where its use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation [or would subject the
issuing companies or products to any registration or licencing requirements]. The information presented herein is the opinion of and proprietary to TH Real Estate. This material not to be reproduced
in whole or in part or used for any purpose except as authorized by TH Real Estate. This document is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as a recommendation or an offer to
buy or sell any investment, product or service to which this information may relate. Past performance is no indication of future results. Any assumptions made or opinions expressed herein are as of
the dates specified or if none at the document date and may change assubsequent conditions vary. In particular, this document has been prepared by reference to current tax and legal considerations
that may alter in the future. This document may contain “forward-looking” information or estimates that are not purely historical in nature. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Such information may include, among other things, illustrative projections and forecasts. The information presented in these materials is believed to be materially correct as at the date hereof, but
no representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of this information. Nothing set out in these materials is or shall be relied upon as a promise
or representation as to the past or future. There is no guarantee that any projections or forecasts made will come to pass. Nothing in this document is intended or should be construed as advice.
Please be aware that this description may be amended or revised from time to time without prior notice. TH Real Estate is a real estate investment management holding company owned by Teachers
Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA). TH Real Estate securities products distributed in North America are advised by UK regulated subsidiaries or Nuveen Alternatives Advisors LLC,
a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of TIAA, and distributed by Nuveen Securities, LLC, member FINRA. 575260-INV-G-AN-08/19
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