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UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
A Final Report on
The UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative:
Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the
Caribbean
A UNESCO International Initiative to Promote Human Security and
Sustainable Development by Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters
March 2004
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
“The toll from natural disasters is particularly severe and tragic in poor countries. In dealing with the
hazards, we need to act in a responsible manner. We need to place far greater emphasis on prevention across
the whole continuum of hazards faced by humanity - ranging from natural to man-made disasters and
including threats to civil and international peace.”
Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO
Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO at
the opening ceremony of the initiative’s mid-term meeting
in Paris, France
“It is our right to have safe schools! We do not build our school buildings. However, if they are very weak,
the earthquake will destroy them and kill us. Why should we, the children, die from weakness that others
create? It is not our fault but the fault of those who build those structures. So, we request our parents and
teachers to build safe houses and school buildings for us!”
Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student representative
Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student representative, at the
initiative’s final symposium in Tijuana, Mexico
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Preface
Cities are growing rapidly, and so is their risk to natural disasters. According to the US Office for Foreign
Disaster Attention, the population of the world’s 50 largest earthquake-threatened cities in 1950 was of 150
million people. In 2000, that population was almost 500 million, that is, more than three times the number in
1950. However, the number of people at risk has not only augmented, but the distribution of that population
has changed as well. While in 1950, one in every two people living in earthquake threatened cities were in
developing countries, in 2000 nine of every ten lived in developing countries. Currently, nine of every ten
people killed by earthquakes die in developing countries. When all types of natural hazards are considered, it
is estimated than more than 95% of people killed by natural disasters die in developing countries. Evidence
shows that urban risk is increasing rapidly, especially in developing countries.
Rapid, poorly planned urban growth increases risk to natural disasters. UN-Habitat studies indicate that
almost 180,000 people are added to the urban population each day. Informal construction and settlements,
lack of enforcement of appropriate codes and regulations for both structures and infrastructure, uncontrolled
use of soils and unplanned location of social and economic activities contribute to the steep increase of the
urban physical and social vulnerabilities to natural hazards, especially in developing countries. Currently,
over 90% of population growth in developing countries is in cities and, according to World Bank estimates,
one third of people in developing countries living in cities live in slum/squatter settlements. Clearly, risk is
increasing rapidly, especially in developing countries, and that risk increase is mainly the result of the rapid
and unplanned growth of urban areas.
There is a close linkage between development and disasters. Poverty results in social and physical
vulnerability to disasters, which is made evident by the fact that in any given natural disaster the most affected
are always the poorest communities. In the same way, disasters generate and perpetuate poverty by causing
huge financial losses and destroying infrastructure. In Bangladesh, just one flood destroyed 15,000 km of
roads, 14,000 schools, and caused US$ 500 million in damage to rice crops. There is, therefore, a vicious
circle of poverty causing increasing vulnerability to natural disasters and disasters causing increasing poverty.
Poverty
Losses Vulnerability
Disaster
The close linkage between poverty and disasters generate a vicious circle
In consequence, any initiative that reduces poverty will reduce the effect of disasters and, similarly, any action
that mitigates the impact of disasters will help to reduce poverty and promote development. From this
perspective, it is only logical for risk reduction to be an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and
development processes. That is what the UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative was about. The goal of
this initiative was to promote and protect development and reduce poverty by reducing the losses caused by
natural disasters through the incorporation of risk management in urban planning and development processes.
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
One of the main end products of this project was a set of recommendations to the local governments on
normative actions that should be undertaken in terms of urban planning and citizen empowerment in order to
enhance disaster reduction and, in this way, protect development.
To achieve its goal, the initiative worked in close collaboration with local authorities, experts, and institutions
of selected cities in Asia and Latin America to a) evaluate the cities’ existing development plans and
determine their potential impact on the level of urban earthquake risk, b) utilize the cities’ growth tendencies
(demographic, economic) to estimate future earthquake risk if urban growth continues with the current
characteristics (without risk management considerations), and c) identify feasible, effective mitigation options
for each participating city and perform cost-benefit analyzes to determine the most efficient risk reduction
activities for each particular city. The cities selected for the project were Antofagasta (Chile), Dehradun
(India), Kathmandu (Nepal), and Tijuana (Mexico).
Besides producing urban planning mitigation options tailored to the particular needs and implementation
capacity of each city, which are being incorporated into the cities’ development plans, the project increased
local capacity by installing risk assessment tools in the computer systems of the local governments and
training city official and local experts on the use and application of those tools to urban planning. Also, the
project increased public awareness through the active participation of city institutions and representatives of
the various sectors of the community throughout the project and a collaborative interaction with the local
mass media.
Understanding that effective reduction of urban risk requires long-term efforts that produce permanent
solutions and that sustainable implementation of long-term programs will only be possible when there is a
well-established culture of preparedness and planning, this initiative implemented demonstration projects with
schools in the participating cities. The aim of these demonstration projects was two-fold. In the short-term,
the objective was to promote the introduction of risk reduction and management in the educational system of
the participating cities, and, in this way, contribute to the long-term objective of creating a culture of
prevention. Both objectives are set with the necessary consequential goal of ensuring the sustainability of
long-term risk reduction programs.
As Coordinator of this initiative, I would like to highlight the hard work and enthusiasm of the working
groups in the participating cities, where local government officials, scientists, and city institutions
collaborated very closely to make the most of this effort. All the material presented in this report is the
product of their dedication and commitment to their cities’ safety and development. My special thanks go to
Ms. Cynthia Cardona, who assisted me in the implementation of this project and whose bright and tireless
work made possible the successful implementation, in a relatively short time, of this initiative in four cities of
two continents and using two languages. Finally, I would like to thank Ms. Elina Palm, Head of the UN-
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) Office for Latin America and the Caribbean for coming
to the rescue when the implementation of the project’s final symposium was lacking the necessary funds.
The impact of the project has been felt immediately. The representatives of the Kathmandu City Government
to the project’s mid-term meeting in Paris expressed: “The beauty of this project is that we, the staff of the city
government, performed the assessment of Kathmandu’s risk and we now understand what is making our city
vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, we now can act accordingly.” It is my sincere hope that many other local
governments and communities will use this methodology to understand their cities’ risk and take actions to
protect the lives of their citizens and the development of their societies.
Carlos Villacis
Program Coordinator
UNESCO/ISDR Consultant
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Project Participants
Coordinators
Carlos A. Villacis, Program Coordinator
Cynthia N. Cardona, Assistant Program Coordinator
Antofagasta Working Group Tijuana Working Group
Municipality of Antofagasta Municipality of Tijuana
Caupolicán Aguirre Luis Duarte M.
Joel Becerra F. Delia Castellanos A.
Ulises Cabrera Lydía Montañés
Claudio Castillo R. Antonio Rosquillas N.
Sergio Díaz
Jorge Infanta Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education
Ernesto López B. of Ensenada (CICESE)
Javier Mandiola C. Ana María Frías L.
Pedro Miric Luis Mendoza G.
Rodolfo Rojas Ernesto Rocha G.
Roberto Rivera R. Rogelio Reyes S.
Catholic University of the North Student Representatives
Marcelo Avalos T. José Paredes
María Soledad Bembow Angel Castillo
Alexandra Joo V.
Juan Music T.
Mario Pereira A.
Gloria Paredes L.
Cinthia Rojas C.
Student Representatives
David Soto
Jonathan Aguirre
Kathmandu Working Group
Municipality of Kathmandu National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)
Ram Saran Humagain Bishnu H Pandey
Kumari Rai Amod Dixit
Rajesh Manandhar
Tribhuwan Man Singh Pradhan Student Representatives
Sorojani Joshi Sony Maharjan
Manish Pradhan Susan Munikar
Surendra Prakash Rajkarnikar
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Contents
Preface ……………………………………………………………………...
Project Participants ………………………………………………………...
Contents ……………………………………………………………………
Part I Reducing earthquake risk through proper urban planning
Outline of the Initiative …………………………………………………….
Individual City Reports …………………………………………………….
Antofagasta, Chile, City Report ……………...………………………….....
Kathmandu, Nepal, City Report …………….……………………………...
Tijuana, Mexico, City Report ………………………………………….…..
Dehradun, India, City Report …………….………………………………...
Part II The Schools Project-Creating a culture of prevention
Outline of the Educational Component-The Schools Project ……………...
Individual City Reports …………………………………………………….
Antofagasta, Chile, City Report ……………...………………………….....
Kathmandu, Nepal, City Report …………….……………………………...
Tijuana, Mexico, City Report ………………………………………….…..
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Part I
Reducing earthquake risk through proper urban
planning
UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative:
Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Final Report
UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Outline of the Cross-cutting Theme Initiative:
Reduction of Natural Disaster in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
INTRODUCTION
The escalation of severe disasters triggered by natural hazards is increasingly threatening human security and
sustainable development. Thousands of lives are lost each year, of which more than 90% are in developing
countries. Tremendous damage is destroying the living conditions of millions of people, especially the poorest
and most vulnerable. Population growth and rapid and unplanned urbanization are exposing more people to
hazards in cities, threatening the stability of their lives. Disasters can turn the development clock backwards,
and often times the lack of sound planning is the main cause of increasing disaster risk.
Considering this, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), in the
framework of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), implemented an
international, multi-disciplinary project entitled The Cross-cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural
Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
The goal of the Initiative was to preserve sustainable development and reduce poverty through the reduction
of the impact of natural disasters by incorporating risk management as an integral part of public policy as well
as city development plans and processes. In its initial phase, the project focused on the following participant
cities: Antofagasta, Chile; Dehradun, India; Kathmandu, Nepal; and Tijuana, Mexico.
Among the end products of this project were recommendations to the local governments on normative actions
that should be undertaken in terms of urban planning and citizen empowerment in order to enhance disaster
reduction. Urban planning mitigation options tailored to the particular needs and implementation capacity of
each city were identified and are now being incorporated into the cities’ development plans,
The long-term vision of this initiative is for cities worldwide to adopt an effective and recognized mechanism
to a) improve governance through better use and application of existing knowledge, and b) contribute to
sustainable development by significantly reducing the losses due to natural disasters.
MAIN ACTIVITIES OF THE INITIATIVE
The project built on previous achievements made with respect to risk management in cities. In particular, it
used the results of the Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters
(RADIUS) project carried out from 1997 to 2000 under the aegis of the United Nations’ International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The project utilized the practical tools of urban risk management
that were developed during the RADIUS project. These tools have been distributed by the United Nations
among local authorities of earthquake-threatened cities worldwide.
The cities selected for this project belong to the RADIUS network of cities and are the following ones:
Latin America
City Country Population Local counterparts
Tijuana Mexico 1,250.000 Municipality of Tijuana
(year 2000) Research Center for Higher Education of Ensenada
(CICESE)
Antofagasta Chile 298,738 Municipality of Antofagasta
(year 2002) Universidad Católica del Norte
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UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Asia
City Country Population Local counterparts
Kathmandu Nepal 671,846 Municipality of Kathmandu
(year 2001) National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET)
Dehradun India 527859 Municipality of Dehradun
(year 2001) Disaster Management and Mitigation Center,
Dehradun
The project’s program of activities is presented in Fig. 1. The three main phases of the project, namely
preparation, risk evaluation, and incorporation of risk management in urban planning, are indicated in the
figure. A Mid-term meeting and an international final symposium were held in which the cities presented their
work to the international community to get feedback and guidance.
In each of the participating cities, the project:
• Trained local leaders and experts in the use and application of earthquake damage assessment tools.
• Prepared simplified earthquake scenarios for different conditions (i.e. several plausible earthquakes,
different building occupancy instances -- e.g. day and night occupancies).
• Estimated future risk by preparing simplified earthquake scenarios for future conditions considering
current local growth tendencies.
• Tested current urban growth plans and policies to understand their implications in the level of urban risk.
• Identified and tested possible risk reduction measures. Performed cost-benefit analyzes and delineated
strategies to incorporate the most effective mitigation options into the cities’ development plans.
• Compared the relative risk among the participating cities.
• Promoted the exchange of experiences, information, and best practices among the participating cities.
• Raised awareness, both at the local and international levels, of the existing risk and the availability of
affordable solutions.
Activity March April May June July August September October November
Project preparation Preparation
First visit to the cities
Training seminars
Local kick-off meetings
Collection of required information
Information analysis and formatting Risk Evaluation
Risk assessment- Preparation of scenarios
Analysis of existing and future risk
Local scenario workshops
Mid-term meeting in Paris
Applications for urban planning
Identification of risk reduction measures
Public presentation of results (locally)
Preparation of final reports
Comparison of relative risk among cities Application to urban planning
Preparation of International Symposium
International Symposium in one of the cities
Publication and dissemination of results
Exchange of information and best practices
Fig.1 Program of activities
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UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
PROJECT PREPARATION
The project started in each city with the visit by the project coordinator to:
• Meet with the local authorities to introduce and explain the project to them
• Implement a kick-off meeting, with the assistance of the local and regional authorities and the
participation of representatives of the various sectors of the society, to present the project to the
community and ask for their active participation and support
• Establish the local working groups
• Train city officers in charge of the city planning on the application of risk assessment tools and
methodologies to urban planning and development programs.
Figures 2 through 4 show some of these activities in the participating cities.
Fig.2 Working session with city officers in charge of Fig.3 Training session on use and application of the
urban planning in Tijuana project's software in Kathmandu
Fig.4 Some of the approximately 60 participants of the seminar organized in Antofagasta to introduce the project to
the community and its leaders.
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AND FUTURE EARTHQUAKE URBAN RISK
Using the risk assessment tools and methodology provided by the project, the local working groups evaluated
the current and future urban earthquake risk. The particular growth tendencies of each city were considered to
prepare projections of the cities in the future and estimate the changes in earthquake risk associated with the
cities’ growth. Since the project’s software was installed on the Municipality’s computers, the city officials in
charge of planning the city’s growth were the ones performing all the risk estimations using information
available at the Municipality. Local technical experts provided the necessary advice and support and city
institutions participated in the process by providing information on the city systems and services. Figure 5
shows samples of the current and future earthquake risk estimated for Antofagasta.
2003 2007
2012 2022
Fig. 5 Estimated earthquake damage to buildings in Antofagasta (modeled
above using the project's software) under current and future conditions
The results of the risk estimations and their implications in the proper planning of the cities’ growth were
presented to the community in a public workshop with the participation of representatives of the various
sectors of the society. Besides validating the results and informing the community on the project findings, the
public presentation of the risk estimations helped to prepare the city representatives for their participation at
the mid-term meeting in Paris in which the participating cities presented the progress of their work to the
international community.
THE MID-TERM MEETING
In order to draw lessons from the work done up to that point by the cities and prepare for last phase of the
initiative, namely the introduction of risk management into the city planning, a mid-term meeting was held on
25-26 September 2003, at UNESCO Headquarters in France that allowed city representatives to report on
their progress and share their experiences.
Approximately seventy participants from all over the world attended the mid-term meeting, which was
opened by Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-general of UNESCO. Mr. Matsuura emphasized the need to place
far greater emphasis on prevention across the whole continuum of hazards faced by humanity in spite of the
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
natural impulse to put the emphasis on addressing immediate problems rather than anticipating potential ones.
He indicated that a coherent worldwide effort is required to harness the environmental sciences for
vulnerability reduction so as to make our settlements and our world safer in this new century. Finally, Mr.
Matsuura emphasized that disaster and vulnerability reduction should be a central theme of UNESCO’s
action.
Fig. 6 Mr. Koïchiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, presided the meeting’s opening ceremony
The mid-term meeting provided city representatives and project participants an opportunity to evaluate the
project to date. More importantly, it facilitated the following:
• Presentation, discussion, and evaluation of work carried out to date by each participating city
• Exchange of experiences among cities
• Discussion of the application of the project’s risk assessment and evaluation results to urban planning
methods and public policy
• Direct interaction of city representatives and UNESCO, international experts, and potential funders
Among the recommendations produced by the meeting on the key elements for ensuring sustainable, long-
term risk reduction processes in the participant cities, the following can be highlighted:
• Long-term vision and political commitment, which need to be reflected in, among other things,
appropriate resource allocations. Real political commitment implies also understanding and accepting the
fact that the benefits of risk reduction, in most cases, can only be seen in the distant future (not
necessarily during the period in office)
• An integrated approach that links the different actors and main stakeholders (avoiding isolated projects) to
ensure their integration in a democratic process
• Use and integration of local capacities and know how, such as local expertise, indigenous materials,
construction technology, etc. (the Kathmandu School safety program is a remarkable example)
• Generation of local funding to avoid dependency on external sources of financing and promote local
autonomy. Local funding can be generated through, for example, the involvement of the private sector
and the implementation of microfinance schemes.
APPLICATION TO URBAN PLANNING
The recommendations produced in the Mid-Term meeting were used by the cities to complete the project’s
last phase, that is, the incorporation of risk management measures into the cities’ development plans. Once
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
again, city authorities, institutions, and technical experts worked together in this process under the guidance
and coordination of the program coordinator.
In this phase, the earthquake risk evaluations performed during the first phase under current and future city
conditions were analyzed and synthesized to identify the main implications of urban growth on the earthquake
risk level. For each city, the main contributors to earthquake risk increase were identified for the short- (next
5 years), medium- (next 10-15 years) and long- (next 20-25 years) terms if nothing is done to control risk, that
is, if the cities continue growing with the same regulations, development plans, code enforcement
mechanisms, supervision, and growth tendencies they now have.
The working groups in each city interacted with local authorities, technical experts, and city institutions to
prepare a set of identified problems and the corresponding proposed solutions for each time category under
consideration (short-, medium-, and long-term). When determining the proposed solutions to the identified
problems, the working groups in the cities considered, among other things, the current city capacity to address
a certain problem and the capacity that would be required to solve it as well as the possible relation of the
proposed solutions to national or regional programs that could facilitate, support and even fund the cities’ risk
reduction efforts. Also, considering the financial, legislative, and technical limitations in the cities, a priority
ranking was applied to the proposed solutions to optimize the available resources.
Finally, cost-benefit analyzes were performed for the proposed risk reduction solutions in order to identify the
most effective and efficient planning measures to be incorporated in the cities’ development plans.
Implementation strategies were also delineated for the recommended risk reduction measures. Examples of
these analyzes are presented in Fig. 7 and 8. Figure 7 shows the effect of several risk reduction investment
strategies for Tijuana. These strategies range from an aggressive risk reduction program that would invest
$ 11.6 million in the next 25 years to avoid risk increase to the extreme case of doing nothing and allowing
the risk to continue growing at its current rate. Figure 8 shows the positive effect of the application of
building codes in Kathmandu in the short-, medium-, and long-terms.
Risk reduction strategies
1800
People at risk (in thousands)
1600
1400
1200 a
1000 b
800 c
600 d
400 e
200
0
89
94
99
04
09
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
Fig. 7 Effect of several risk reduction investment options for Tijuana, which range from doing nothing (red line) to an
aggressive risk reduction program that would invest $ 11.6 million in the next 25 years (green line).
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
60
50 48
45
40
40
% decrease 37 Building Damage
29
30 Injury
27 24 Death
20
17
10 11
0
Short Term Medium Long Term
Term
Fig. 8 Short-, medium-, and long-term risk reduction effects of the application of building codes in Kathmandu, in terms
of building damage and casualties,
The final recommendations produced by the project in each city, including the proposed risk reduction
planning measures and their implementation strategies, were presented to the community in public workshops
to validate them and obtain community support for their implementation.
Fig. 9 The Mayor of Kathmandu addresses the Fig. 10 Representatives of the various community sectors
participants of a public workshop discuss risk reduction recommendations
organized to present the project results proposed by the project for Tijuana
FINAL INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM
In order to draw final lessons from the project, a final symposium was held on 19-22 January 2004, in
Tijuana, Mexico and San José, California that allowed city representatives to report on their results, share
their experiences, and discuss next steps. Specifically, the symposium facilitated the following:
• Presentation, discussion, and evaluation of work carried out by each participating city
• Exchange of experiences among cities
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Discussion of the application and implementation of the project’s results and recommendations to urban
planning and public policy in each of the cities
• Direct interaction of city representatives, international experts, and potential funders
• Generation of ideas for potential collaboration opportunities and preparation for a potential longer-term
initiative
Approximately one hundred and ten participants from around the world attended the final symposium, which
was co-organized by UNESCO and the Municipality of Tijuana with the administrative assistance of the
Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE). The participants included school
children from the participating cities who presented the results of demonstration projects that were
implemented to promote the creation of a culture of prevention. Details of the educational component of this
initiative are presented somewhere else in this report.
Fig. 11 Some of the approximately 110 participants of the final symposium in Tijuana, Mexico
Fig. 12 Antonio Rosquillas, Tijuana’s Director of Civil Fig. 13 Kathmadu students Sony Maharjan and Susan
Protection, and Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student Munikar present their work at the final symposium
representative, test seismic-resistant structures at the (pictured here with Elina Palm, Head of the ISDR-LAC
Tech Museum of San Jose, California Office, and Project Coordinator Carlos Villacís)
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The meeting participants engaged in active discussions during group working sessions based on the results
and findings presented by the city representatives. As a result, the Final Symposium event produced specific
recommendations on ways to incorporate risk reduction considerations into the city development plans and on
necessary actions to establish a culture of prevention and long-term planning, especially in developing
countries.
Recommendations
The working groups produced recommendations on four vital aspects of urban risk reduction processes:
1- Vulnerability reduction of buildings, infrastructure and services
2- Political, institutional, and legal frameworks
3- Financing of these processes
4- Public awareness and education
The main recommendations and a long-term vision for each of these aspects are listed below.
1- Vulnerability reduction of buildings, infrastructure and services
Long-term vision: All the new construction (structures and infrastructure) is properly designed and built and
safely located.
Recommendations:
Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Revising and modifying the current processes for issuing construction permits by local authorities and
adding adequate technical support to these processes.
• Revising the basic philosophy of current building codes to incorporate local cultural aspects, indigenous
materials, and traditional construction techniques.
• Introducing risk management in the study programs of universities and professional associations through
coordinated actions by government, universities, and professional associations.
• Providing technical guidance, at affordable price, to the lower-income sectors of the community through
social programs implemented by local authorities and professional associations
2- Political, institutional, and legal frameworks
Long-term vision: Risk management considerations are an integral part of every planning, development, and
investment decision.
Recommendations:
Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Compiling and synthesizing the work, results, and findings produced by isolated risk reduction initiatives
implemented so far by both local and international organizations in order to properly utilize what has
already been done and learn from past experiences.
• Modifying the legislation in order to incorporate all the civil and political institutions in risk management
processes based on the understanding that risk considerations must be included in every development and
investment decision.
• Strengthening local risk management organizations that coordinate the coordinated implementation of
long-term risk reduction programs and monitor and report the progress (or lack of it) of these programs.
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Promoting and facilitating the participation of the cities in risk management initiatives with other cities at
the domestic, regional, and international levels to take advantage of other cities’ experiences, incorporate
best practices at the local level, and even import applicable legislation and institutional frameworks. The
creation of partnerships among cities with similar needs and problems should be encouraged.
• Promoting decentralization at the national level. Cities need greater political, financial, and administrative
autonomy to address their particular needs in managing urban risk.
3- Financing of these processes
Long-term vision: While the cities may need assistance during large catastrophes, they should be self-
sufficient for the implementation of risk reduction processes and the response to minor disasters.
Recommendations:
Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Identifying already allocated funds in the budgets of city institutions and agencies that have been assigned
to similar or related risk management activities and coordinating their use to avoid duplication of
activities and optimize the utilization of available resources. The necessary funds for risk management
may already be available but are not being efficiently utilized.
• Revising the current tax regulations to create incentives to encourage risk reduction activities and
practices. Utilization of current tax revenues should also be revised to redirect some of them towards risk
reduction activities.
• Creating a certification system that recognizes industries and private enterprises that adopt risk reduction
practices. Certified industries and corporations would enjoy a special status that could encourage the
private sector to play an active role in managing urban risk.
• Implementing new and creative programs to generate funds for risk management programs for critical
facilities. National or local lottery programs, for example, could generate significant funding for the
implementation of safety initiatives for public schools or hospitals.
• Revising the role of international collaboration. External assistance and funding should only be welcomed
when they are completely compatible with the local needs, programs, and realities. Dependency on
external assistance should be avoided at all costs.
4- Public awareness and education
Long-term vision: By age 18, all citizens have risk management and proper planning concepts and practices
integrated into their daily lives.
Recommendations:
Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Integrating risk management and disaster prevention in the official educational programs.
• Delineating comprehensive programs, both formal and informal, for risk reduction and disaster prevention
education in collaboration with universities and professional associations.
• Establishing educational programs for broad dissemination via the media.
• Effectively utilizing grassroots organizations and community leaders to reach the community. Training-
of-trainers programs should be implemented at every level of the society to take advantage of the existing
community structure and organization.
• Requiring that city political authorities take an introductory course on risk management and disaster
mitigation.
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Requiring that other public officials (such as public planning and finance ministers) be sensitized to the
issues of prevention.
PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP PLAN
This pilot project will be used to promote and prepare the implementation of a proposed large-scale, long-
term initiative that will include:
• Development and application of similar tools for other hazards, namely floods and landslides
• Incorporation of more cities from around the world
• Establishment of links with other international risk reduction initiatives
This proposed large-scale initiative would be implemented in two phases. The first phase would have a
duration of three years and the participation of a dozen cities worldwide. The second phase would include the
continuing and progressive incorporation of more cities to this initiative until achieving the initiative’s long-
term vision of cities worldwide adopting an effective and recognized mechanism to a) improve governance
through better use and application of existing knowledge, and b) contribute to sustainable development by
significantly reducing the losses due to natural disasters.
The progressive implementation of this proposed initiative is presented schematically in Fig. 7
Large-scale project
2002-03 3 years Continues progressively
First phase Second phase
Pilot 12 cities Add more cities
Project Add floods & continuously
landslides
Fig.14 Progressive long-term implementation of the proposed initiative
CONTACT INFORMATION
Dr. Carlos Villacís, M.P.A., Ms. Cynthia Cardona
Project Coordinator UNESCO Consultant
UNESCO/ISDR Consultant Tel: (1- 408) 251-4042
Tel: (1-650) 967-3667 E-mail: cardona_cynthia@gsb.stanford.edu
Fax: (1-253) 679-8397
E-mail: Carlos_Villacis@ksg02.harvard.edu
villacis@pangea.stanford.edu
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative:
Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America,
and the Caribbean
Individual City Reports
Prepared by the city representatives of
Antofagasta, Chile
Kathmandu, Nepal
Tijuana, Mexico
Dehradun, India
Final ReportUNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative
Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean
Antofagasta, Chile, City Report
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE CITY
The port-city of Antofagasta is located 1,300 Km. Northbound Santiago city, capital of Chile, on the
occidental edge of Atacama desert. Its extension reaches 27 kilometres of length from South to North, with an
average width of 2 Km. Geographically, it is restricted on its growth to the East by De La Costa Cordillera,
with slopes of 40° and to the West by the Pacific Ocean, whereas to the South its growth is difficult because
of the same cordillera that abruptly falls on the shore.
Population, according to the year 2002 Census, is of 299.880 inhabitants. Main economic activity in
Antofagasta Region is mining, associated to Cooper production, that explains the Regional GNP of 60%.
Antofagasta Region, with a 3.2% of the country total population, contributes with more than 8% of the
National GNP, and an equivalent of 27.1% of the total national exportations (1998). Another relevant mining
products are the Potassium Nitrate (first worldwide producer) and Lithium Carbonate.
Current growth of the Region, is visualized in the conformation of a mining cluster that assures the
maintenance, generating a higher value-added to mining products, and at the same time, that this becomes the
initial support of the productive diversification, for example in aquiculture, and in tourism increase.
Regional economic activity has been remarkably increased in the last years. The economic activity index
(INACER) shows a duplication between 1992 and 1998. The same happens in key economic areas of the
Region, like mining and electricity, gas and water sectors.
The Region of Antofagasta in the year 1992 produced more than 1 million tons of fine cooper, nowadays its
production goes over 2 million tons, that are shipped, mostly, through Antofagasta port.
This Region achieved, in 1998, a regional participation in the country exportations of a total of 27.1%
generating exportations for more than US$ 5,103,928 in the year 1997, where the main destinations were Asia
and Europe.
Government strategic lineaments, that are proposed as priority, are the commercial integration with bordering
countries, the generation of a greater value-added to the mining activity and the productive diversification.
The new focussing that valorized the local dimension of development, implicates to put a new dimension to
regional territory not on the centre perspective, but on the articulation of relationships from its own
maintenance. About this, it seems possible to affirm that the Region has initiated a vast and deep process of
change at a territorial level. This new territory embraces o circumscribes a bigger area of hinterland or
economic influence, that involves the Norte Grande, but also bordering country areas that gravitate on the
Argentinean NW, Bolivian NW, the Gran Chaco in Brazil and in Paraguay, being fundamental the East-West
tension, contrary to old North-South axis that connected us with Santiago city.
From the last is deduced the understanding of Antofagasta as a key city or nodal for the future commercial
space of the Pacific, what implicates an important scale change. Meaning, beyond the city image of the actual
city a new image emerges; the Port Urban Complex, which will potentially create Antofagasta-Mejillones.
Now it is been developed the Project of Mejilones Port and the North Bio-oceanic Treatment. Projects that
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together are the sustain growth platform, decentralized and self-referred for the Second Region, transforming
Antofagasta into a centre of services and support to the productive and development activity in the entire
region.
2. PAST IMPORTANT NATURAL DISASTERS IN ANTOFAGASTA
The possibility of a big earthquake is sustained in the fact that, during the last century The North of Chile and
the South of Peru, experimented earthquakes of a magnitude estimated in over 8 degrees, being the last of
them in 1877.
This situation turns out much clearly after the statistic analysis of big earthquakes in the zone, which indicates
a repetition period of 120 years. This, assures the hypothesis that points out that seismic cycle in this zone is
in its mature stage, for what it would exist a high probability of occurrence of this type of catastrophes.
Because of this situation, which is added to a series of similar phenomena occurred previously in the Region
of Antofagasta, such as the 1991 flood that affected Antofagasta and Taltal cities, the mud stream that cut all
communication with Paposo on July 1999, the earthquake in Antofagasta in 1995 and the volcanic eruptions
which affected the Talabre Area during 1994 and 1998, is fundamental for the public step, integrate planning
and education matters for risk reduction before the possibility of a natural disaster.
The Region of Antofagasta registers, in the coast area, the following quakes of consequence:
CITY YEAR CONSEQUENCES
Antofagasta 1877 Earthquake accompanied of tsunami, no human lives lost, serious material
damages. It was considered to have a magnitude of 8° in Richter Scale.
1922 Earthquake accompanied of tsunami, no human lives lost, material damages.
1929 Earthquake accompanied of epicentre in Pampa Union (former Saltpetre Office
located in the Region of Antofagasta) in Antofagasta city, they were 2 deaths,
several injured, 60 semi-destroyed houses and innumerable collapses. It was
estimated to have a magnitude of IX (Mercalli Scale).
1950 Quake with characteristics of earthquake, left four deaths and dozens of injured, it
also caused collapses and cracking on old buildings or in those with a deficient
maintenance.
1952 Tsunami with epicentre in the ocean, outside Chilean coast, that affected the entire
costal area between Antofagasta and Talcahuano (South of Chile).
In Antofagasta several ships got lost, several littoral sectors got overflowed. The
swelling of the sea lasted 3 hours and waves reached a height of 3,6 metres.
1966 Earthquake with no fatal victims, only minor material waste.
1995 Earthquake, three deaths, structural damage in buildings and local port. It had a
magnitude of 7,3° in Richter Scale, and a maximum intensity of VII in Mercalli Scale.
The earthquake during July 30th in 1995 in Antofagasta had a magnitude of 8.1 (Mw) and it was at 20 Km
NW the city, to a depth of 36 Km, causing structural damages for more than 440 thousand million pesos to
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Chilean Government and 615 additional million pesos, just out of house damages (2 million dollars).
According to what the Urbanism and Housing Ministry reported at that time. Three people lost their lives and
more than 1400 got injured. One of the fatal victims perished by crushing, after the detaching of a rock.
House damages were reported in most of the Second Region, although it was said that worst wastes were
concentrated in Antofagasta city, particularly in the port. For six months, only 30% of port system could
maintain operating being this area the one that suffered major impact indeed, because it is a filling zone.
Electronic and communicational systems were affected several hours after the earthquake, whereas the
drinking water and sewage services got to normal more slowly, after proving damages in the networks.
Human losses due to natural disasters in Antofagasta (1991-2003)
Adultos Menores
Aluvión (1991) 60 48
Terremoto (1995) 2 1
Terrem oto 1995 Aluvión de 1991
M enores ; 1; Menores ;
33% 48; 44%
Adultos;
Adult os; 2; 60; 56%
67%
Adultos Menores Adultos Menores
En 1999 la inversión pública para la Segunda Región, fue de 50 mil millones de pesos (100 millones de USD),
lo que representa un 4% de la inversión nacional. En tanto, una evaluación económica de las pérdidas
provocadas por Desastres en el 2001, indicó que en la región de Antofagasta, se produjeron pérdidas por
desastres naturales que bordean los 20 millones de dólares, equivalentes al 20% del total invertido en la zona,
sólo en 10 años.
El detalle entregado por la Oficina Regional de Protección Civil, sólo para de de los desastres más
importantes ocurridos, indica que el aluvión de 1991 dejó 108 muertos, 6 desaparecidos, 16.317 damnificados
y 2.664 viviendas dañadas, 737 de las cuales resultaron completamente destruidas. Las pérdidas económicas
fueron avaluadas en torno a los 29 mil 328 millones de pesos.
En tanto, el terremoto de 1995 provocó 3 muertos y 9.452 damnificados. Posteriormente, tuvieron que ser
demolidas 826 viviendas, mientras que 143 inmuebles quedaron con daños estructurales de consideración.
Los perjuicios económicos bordearon los 440 millones de pesos.
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3. CITY GROWTH PROJECTIONS
In general terms, constructions are concentrated in categories of RES 1 and RES 2 (22% and 40% average
respectively), what means, according to computational program definitions, that more than 60% of the
constructions are designated to houses and they have important grades of lack or informality (camps, slams of
self-construction or even three floor buildings which do not reach standards). On the other hand, constructions
designated to commercial uses present an average of 15% and those designate to industrial and productive
activities, and average of 7%.
Porcentaje Tipo Edificatorio 2003
Antofagasta - Chile
OTROS
RES 1
16%
22%
IND
7%
COM
15%
RES 2
40%
RES 1 RES 2 COM IND OTROS
(RES1 -- - construcción Informal y precaria / RES2 -- - URM-RC construcción de baja calidad que no cumple con las
reglamentaciones locales. Altura hasta 3 pisos, sin supervisón profesional)
El acelerado crecimiento de la ciudad en los últimos 10 años, se basa principalmente en la generación de
nuevos trabajos como consecuencia de la industria minera. Asimismo, la base de crecimiento de la economía
promedio para Antofagasta, en el período 2003 – 2022 es de un 4%, según estudios de crecimiento para el
Plano Regulador de Antofagasta.
Esta previsto que al año 2022, la tendencia será a crecer por densificación, especialmente en los extremos
Norte y Sur de la ciudad. Hecho que deja en evidencia la necesidad de gestionar mejor el uso territorial y
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establecer normas para ello. Asimismo, para una población total de 299.880 personas al 2003, la
estratificación social se da de la siguiente manera:
Estratificación Socio-Económ ica en % - 2003
Antofagasta - Chile
6,6 14,65
18,4
37,37
22,94
Extrema pobreza clase media baja clase media clase media emergente clase alta
De lo anterior se desprende que el 52 % de la población es de bajos recursos, por lo tanto, la potencialidad de
autoconstrucción de viviendas, ocupación ilegal de terrenos y de riesgo es muy alta, siendo necesario la
intervención de áreas catalogadas para este estudio como de alta vulnerabilidad, en aspectos como la
planificación, erradicación de viviendas y educación de las personas sobre la materia.
En 1999, la Segunda región ocupó el primer lugar en el ranking de competitividad nacional, ya que aporta
más del 7% al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) nacional, situándose en el cuarto lugar entre las 13 regiones que
componen Chile. El PIB per cápita de la región, es de 2,7 veces el promedio nacional, siendo el más alto del
país.
Antofagasta, al ser la ciudad más importante de la Segunda Región, también concentra el 39% de la población
total. Asimismo sustenta las actividades minera, industrial y de servicios tales como portuarios, energía y
financieros, y es receptora de grandes inversiones. Por este motivo, la población se ve incrementada por las
ofertas de trabajo del área.
Población de Antofagasta respecto del resto de la
Segunda Región, Chile 2003
39%
61%
Region Antof agasta
Se espera que la población de la ciudad se incremente a 500.019 al año 2022, como causa de las ofertas
laborales. En la actualidad se estima que la población de allegados en la ciudad es de 15% respecto del total
de la población.
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Se han distinguido dos tipos básicos de crecimiento, a saber, crecimiento por extensión, que se produce en
áreas nuevas de la ciudad que no cuentan a la fecha con urbanización, y crecimiento por densificación, que se
produce en áreas consolidadas de la ciudad.
De acuerdo a los antecedentes históricos de evolución de la relación entre construcción de casas y
departamentos, obtenidas del registro de permisos de construcción municipal (Memoria del Plan Regulador
Comunal), se verifica que entre los años 1988 y 1998, se presentó un comportamiento estable de distribución
porcentual, que osciló en torno a un 15% a 20% de edificación en altura y 80% a 85% de edificación en
extensión (vivienda de 1 o 2 pisos). Lo anterior indica con claridad, que la ciudad de Antofagasta no ha
iniciado aún un proceso claro de densificación, propio de ciudades intermedias, y que dicha evolución es
esperable para los próximos años.
Sobre esta base se proyectaron los siguientes escenarios por corte temporal, reconociendo un incremento del
crecimiento por densificación en desmedro del crecimiento por extensión, como fenómeno típico de ciudades
intermedias en crecimiento:
Año % crecimiento por % crecimiento por
densificación extensión
2003 20 80
2007 25 75
2012 30 70
2017 35 65
2022 40 60
Para el uso residencial, en Antofagasta se distribuyen las construcciones en un total de 80% para viviendas y
un 20% de departamentos4, por tanto, asumimos estos valores para la situación base en extensión y
densificación respectivamente. Esta propuesta debería variar en años futuros y aumentar el porcentaje de
densificación frente a la extensión, motivo por el cual se propuso para los escenarios siguientes un proceso de
cambio gradual hasta llegar a 60% para el crecimiento por extensión y 40% para crecimiento por
densificación.
De Norte a Sur, se estableció que la ciudad crecerá por extensión. Al Norte: al Oriente y al Poniente se cree
que podría ser por densificación, áreas residenciales y sector rural e industrial. Todas estas percepciones son a
partir de proyectos que están vislumbrándose en la ciudad y que para este ejercicio son un supuesto.
4. PROJECT IMPLEMENTACION
In the 1998-1999 period, Antofagasta, used the RADIUS Project (Risk Assessment Tools Diagnosis of Urban
Areas against Seismic Disasters), which generated maps over land, structures, vital lines, schools quality,
apart from the distribution of emergency services, population and map of intensities, among others.
Another contribution to the project was the development of a seismic scenario, describing what would
eventually happen with Antofagasta facing a similar or a stronger than 8° Richter earthquake, finalizing with
21 action plans, some of which have been done by the local Town Hall.
RADIUS methodology was extended to most of the cities in the North of Chile, through the use of research
projects by the Catolica del Norte University. In the year 2000, an evaluation of the city after the use of the
project was effectuated, which measured the level of commitment and execution of the proposed action plans
during this program.
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