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THE STATE OF POLARISATION
FEBRUARY 2021
THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UK
#NetworkedAgeTHE STATE OF POLARISATION METHODOLOGY Slides 3 and 4 use data from proprietary research conducted on behalf of ENGINE MHP by Cambridge University’s Political Psychology Lab. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+ completed this study online between 17 December – 20 December 2020. Participants were recruited through Prolific Academic based on their: voting behaviour in the 2019 general election and 2016 EU referendum, country of residence, age, gender, ethnicity and education. The final sample was then statistically weighted to the national profile of all adults aged 18+ on these characteristics, with target weights derived from 1) The results of the 2019 general election and 2016 EU referendum 2) Official ONS population estimates 3) Large scale surveys such as the YouGov and Ipsos MORI post-election surveys and the British Election Study. All other slides are based on research conducted by YouGov plc and employing a model of ‘Britain’s Tribes’ developed by More in Common and YouGov. Total sample size was 2,107 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21 December 2020 – 4 January 2021. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). 2 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UK
THE STATE OF POLARISATION
ISSUE POLARISATION – Differences in opinion between those on the political
right and left on particular issues
BREXIT IS BRITAIN’S Left Right
MOST DIVISIVE ISSUE Individual choice over conformity
Elites control the media
Cooperation over competition
Businesses should take stands
The economy is doing well
The most polarising political issue between Big business is harmful
left and right in Britain is Brexit, followed by
Issue Polarisation
Economic inequality
attitudes towards ‘traditional values’ and Climate change
Britain’s international impact
government competence. There is close Racial inequality
alignment on the question of personal choice. Government’s job on health
Scottish independence
Britain’s direction
Immigration is harmful
Government competence
Traditional values
Brexit
Disagree Neutral Agree
Mean response of those on the left Mean response of those on the right
Note: Responses were on 7-point scales
3 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
MEDIA POLARISATION – Trust in mainstream and official news sources
% replying Trusting Distrusting Neither trusting nor distrusting
THE UK IS NOT THE USA
Trust in the media is polarised in the UK but political Conservatives
party preference is not the biggest divide.
Labour
In contrast to the US, where surveys suggest that 65%
of Republicans report “hardly any” confidence in the Leavers
media, more than half (54%) of UK Conservative voters
said that they trust information from mainstream news Remainers
sources, while only 40% of Labour voters said the same.
Non−voters
The starkest difference is between voters and
non-voters: The politically engaged feel relatively well-
0 20 40 60 80 100
served by the UK media, but the disengaged
are distrustful. Note: “Slightly”, “Moderately” and “Extremely” response options have been aggregated
4 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
A PESSIMISTIC VIEW In general, do you think young people today will be
better or worse off than their parents?
OF THE FUTURE OF % Better off
THE COUNTRY 22%
21%
23% 23%
Only 15% of British people expect 15% 16%
young people will be better off
14%
10% 11%
than their parents. Labour voters,
8% 9%
Remain voters, Londoners and
young people themselves are
particularly pessimistic.
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
ABC1
C2DE
London
Scotland
Aged 18-24
Aged 65+
5 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
A DISUNITED KINGDOM How united or divided does the UK feel to you these days?
United
Divided
In general, British people think the country
feels divided. Labour voters are much more
likely to believe the country is divided than 21%
All
Conservative voters.
55%
16%
Labour
67%
29%
Conservative
46%
6 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
DECLINING CONFIDENCE Thinking about how experts have responded to the Coronavirus
pandemic, would you say this has made you more or less likely to
listen to experts in the future, or has there been no change?
IN THE EXPERTS More likely
Less likely
The response to the Covid-19 pandemic has
damaged confidence in experts, with 14% of
people reporting that they will be less likely 8%
All
to listen to experts in future, compared with 14%
8% who say they are more likely to listen in
future. Confidence among Leave voters has 8%
been particularly damaged. Leavers
19%
8%
Remainers
11%
7 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
LOW LEVELS OF If you learn something from the following sources, how likely
or unlikely are you to believe it? (Believe – Disbelieve)
CONFIDENCE IN % National Average Net belief
THE MEDIA 26%
44%
60%
18%
British people are much more likely to
believe news from their favourite source
than from the media in general and they are -1% -9% -10%
highly distrusting of unknown news sources
or information that appears in their social
feed, unless shared by a source they admire. -54%
TV news and Google searches continue to
-64%
Newspaper
TV news
Favourite news
organisation
Unknown
news site
Social feed
Someone I admire
on social media
Talkshow radio
Google search
Documentary
earn positive net scores.
8 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
HOW IMPORTANT On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is not at all important, and 5 is very
important, how important is your nationality to your identity?
IS NATIONALITY TO % Very important
IDENTITY? 43% 43%
49%
34%
26% 29%
Nationality polarises opinion among 28%
Conservative and Labour voters and
Remain and Leave voters to a very 19% 16%
similar degree. 14%
11%
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
Male
Female
Aged 18-24
Aged 25-49
Aged 50-64
Aged 65+
9 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
PERCEPTIONS Which words describe someone with strongly different political views?
(Choose three options from a list of nine)
OF OUT- Intelligent Open-minded Honest Closed-minded Hypocritical Selfish
GROUPS
39%
39%
29%
28%
Labour and Remain voters
24%
24%
24%
24%
23%
23%
22%
and young people are
20%
18%
more likely to use negative
16%
15%
15%
14%
14%
13%
13%
13%
13%
12%
terms to describe people
11%
10%
10%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
who disagree with them.
6%
6%
5%
4%
3%
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
Aged 18-24
Aged 25-49
10 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
BRITISH HISTORY In general, to what extent do you think Britain’s
history is something to be proud or ashamed of?
% Proud
Pride in Britain’s history is
a politically polarised issue.
Pride among 18-24 year-olds is
89% 85% 84%
dramatically lower than among 71% 77%
any other age group.
66%
55% 58%
49%
42%
35%
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
London
Midlands / Wales
Aged 18-24
Aged 25-49
Aged 50-64
Aged 65+
11 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
THE SCALE OF Have you personally tried to get something or someone banned,
withdrawn or cancelled because you disagreed with it?
CANCEL CULTURE
20% 7%
Something I like has
been cancelled
VS I have tried to
cancel something
12 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
WHOSE CULTURE In the last few years, has something or someone you like been
banned, withdrawn or cancelled due to public pressure?
IS BEING CANCELLED? % Yes
29%
Cancellation disproportionately targets
27% 26%
things enjoyed by Conservative voters, 23%
men and the ABC1 demographic. 20% 18% 17% 17%
15%
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
13 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
EXPRESSING “In general, I feel comfortable expressing
my political viewpoints...”
VIEWS IN PUBLIC % Among friends
% At work
People in Scotland are less
77%
77%
75%
74%
72%
72%
70%
70%
comfortable discussing their
67%
66%
64%
political views among friends or at
work than people from any other
43%
43%
42%
42%
39%
37%
part of the country.
35%
34%
34%
34%
32%
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Remain
Leave
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
London
Scotland
14 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
ACTIVIST Net approval scores for each group in the last 12 months
(“force for good” – “force for bad”)
GROUPS SPLIT Pride MeToo Black Lives Matter Antifa Extinction Rebellion Anti-Lockdown Protesters
THE NATION
66%
64%
59%
57%
49%
47%
44%
29%
26%
25%
Activist movements are
19%
12%
highly polarising. The
7%
4%
3%
0%
only movements to unite
-1%
the nation were Pride
-9%
(positive scores across all
-18%
-24%
-26%
-31%
groups) and Anti-Lockdown
-33%
-45%
Protesters (negative scores
-52%
across all groups).
-68%
-69%
-71%
-78%
-79%
National Average Labour Conservative Remain Leave
15 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION
WORKPLACE If you believed the company you worked for was doing something you
strongly objected to, which of the following, if any, actions would you take?
ACTIVISM I would join other colleagues in complaining (e.g. through a collective meeting or union)
I would look for another job
I would tip off a journalist
I would criticise the company anonymously (e.g. on Glassdoor)
Millennials are the
generation most likely
41%
40%
37%
36%
36%
35%
35%
34%
to engage in workplace
32%
32%
32%
32%
29%
29%
29%
28%
28%
activism. GenZ are most
27%
27%
likely to criticise
17%
anonymously.
41%
12%
12%
12%
10%
11%
10%
10%
10%
10%
9%
9%
9%
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
6%
5%
National Average
Labour
Conservative
Male
Female
ABC1
C2DE
Aged 18-24
Aged 25-49
Aged 50-64
16 THE STATE OF POLARISATION IN THE UKTHE STATE OF POLARISATION The Networked Age Guide to Communicating in a Polarised World can be downloaded at mhpc.com/networked-age Further Polarisation Tracker reports will be published in Summer and Winter 2021. Thank you to our partners at The Depolarization Project, More in Common, Cambridge University Political Psychology Lab and YouGov for helping us to design this study. To find out more about our Networked Age research programme contact nick.barron@mhpc.com mhpc.com @mhpc mischiefpr.com @mischiefpr #NetworkedAge
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