The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.

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The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
The hype
                                         has quieted—but
                                        that doesn't mean
                                      Apple Pay, Samsung Pay,
                                        and Google Pay are
                                            sitting still.

Volume Eighteen, Number Twelve • DigitalTransactions.net • December 2021

                                                                           ALSO IN THIS ISSUE:
                                                                           PayPal’s Amazon Coup
                                                                           Real Time at the Register
                                                                           A Volatile Time for Stablecoins
                                                                           Why Europe is Scary
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
DigitalTransactions.net
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all in one place.                               payments market, posted daily

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                                   current and
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                                   Digital Transactions
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                               suppliers
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
DECEMBER 2021 • VOLUME 18, NUMBER 12

    Remember the Pays?                                                                                                                                      22
    You may not be hearing much about them any more, but Apple Pay, Google Pay, and
    Samsung Pay haven’t gone away. In fact, they may be more potent than ever.

THE GIMLET EYE               Searching for Stability                                                                                                                  4

TRENDS & TACTICS                                                                                                                                                      6
PayPal, Venmo, Amazon,                     How the Chip Squeeze Is                     Mastercard Eyes a                          Square Looks to Attract
And the Super App                          Helping Tap-to-Mobile Tech                  Deeper Involvement                         Bigger Merchants
The colossal marketplace                   Can’t find a new POS terminal?              in A2A Transfers                           The $29-billion Afterpay deal
welcomes Venmo for payment                 No worries—just start using                                                            is just the start.
                                                                                       The global networks are
just as PayPal rolls out its               your mobile phone.                          looking for fresh pipes
souped-up super app.                                                                   to funnel huge volumes.
                                                                                       Mastercard is no exception.

                         Plus, Security Notes explains the role of randomness as it concludes its series on quantum money;
                                and Payments 3.0 warns against the potential for over-reach from Washington’s regulators.

ACQUIRING                                      14                                                                    STRATEGIES                                     27
Coming to a Store Checkout                                                                                           The Digital Financial
Near You?                                                                                                            Services Playbook
Real-time payments have proven value                                                                                 Advanced technologies and open
for many payment needs. Now, experts                                                                                 banking have rewritten the rules for
are looking at mining the potential for                                                                              success in payments and other crucial
real time at the point of sale.                                                                                      financial services. Here’s how to
                                                                                                                     compete—and win.
                                                          NETWORKS                                        18
                                                                                                                     ENDPOINT                                       30
                                                          The Price of Stability
                                                          And you thought stablecoins                                Why Europe Is Scary
                                                          were all about ‘set it and forget it.’                     PSD2 won’t solve fraud completely.
                                                          Some—including the government—                             Here’s why—and what U.S. online
                                                          think otherwise.                                           merchants should do.

                                                                                                                     Cover Illustration: Jason Smith, 123rf.com
Digital Transactions (USPS 024-247) is published monthly by Boland Hill Media LLC, 800 Roosevelt Road, Building B, Suite 212, Glen Ellyn, IL, 60137. Periodicals Postage
Paid at Glen Ellyn, IL, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Digital Transactions, P.O. Box 493, Northbrook, IL 60065-3553.

2      DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                                                                            CONTENTS
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
DECEMBER 2021 • VOL. 18, NO. 12

                                                                                     PUBLISHER Robert A. Jenisch
                                                                                     EDITOR-IN-CHIEF John Stewart
                                                                                     SENIOR EDITOR, DIGITAL
HAVE YOU USED BITCOIN OR SOME OTHER CRYPTOCURRENCY LATELY?                           Kevin Woodward
Or have you used one at all? If you did, was it worth the same at the time of        CORRESPONDENTS
the transaction as it was when you obtained it? Chances are, its value had           Jim Daly, Peter Lucas
fluctuated, maybe by a very wide margin.                                             ART DIRECTOR/PRODUCTION EDITOR
   Bitcoin, the largest (in terms of market cap) and best-known of the cryptos,      Jason Smith

is notorious for these big swings in value between when the coin was gener-          EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD
                                                                                     Eula L. Adams
ated and when it was spent—or even from day to day or week to week. To take
                                                                                     John Elliott
a recent example, Bitcoin recorded a value of $64,863 at 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 13,      Alex W. “Pete” Hart
but at 10 p.m. five days later it was logging in at $56,016, a loss of $8,847, or    Former Chief Executive Officer,
                                                                                     Mastercard International
13.6%, in a matter of five-and-a-half days. That sounds more like a share of
                                                                                     William F. Keenan
stock than a medium of exchange.                                                     President, De Novo Corp.
   And that’s been the rub with most cryptocurrencies. Holders who want              Dr. Gideon Samid
                                                                                     Chief Technology Officer,
to spend their coins can’t be certain hour-by-hour of the total value of their       AGS Encryptions Ltd.
holdings, as they could be with a stack of dollars or a card backed by a stack       DIRECTOR OF ADVERTISING
of dollars. This is what has made holders of Bitcoin treat the digital currency      Robert A. Jenisch, 877-658-0418
                                                                                     bob@digitaltransactions.net
more like an investment. But that wasn’t the original intention for this money.
It was supposed to function as a digital stand-in for folding money, able to be      ADVERTISING SALES REPRESENTATIVES
                                                                                     Robert Mitchell, 877-658-0418, x7
swiftly transmitted from a mobile wallet to any seller anywhere in the world.        bmitchell@digitaltransactions.net
   What’s the solution? Some have argued for stablecoins, a digital currency         Rob Akert, 877-658-0418, x6
                                                                                     rakert@digitaltransactions.net
whose value can be linked to an existing national currency, typically the U.S
dollar. In this way, the coin enjoys all the ease and convenience of digital safe-   Digital Transactions, Digital Transactions News,
                                                                                     and DigitalTransactions.net are publications of
keeping and transmission but without the volatility of a Bitcoin. Since the first    Boland Hill Media LLC, 800 Roosevelt Road,
                                                                                     Suite B212, Glen Ellyn, IL 60137
stablecoins appeared in 2014, the market has seen the emergence of scores of
                                                                                     John Stewart, Managing Director
these coins, so much so that their total market cap has soared past $140 billion.    Robert A. Jenisch, Managing Director
   But as our story on page 18 points out, this popularity hasn’t come without       For advertising information, call
                                                                                     877-658-0418. To subscribe or
problems. The federal government, concerned about how some issuers are               give us a change of address, go to
                                                                                     www.digitaltransactions.net and click on
backing their coins with loads of commercial paper and other instruments             “Subscriber Care” or call 847-559-7599.
besides cold, hard cash, is looking to impose a menu of regulations to safe-         The views expressed in this publication are
                                                                                     not necessarily those of the editors or of the
guard holders in case of a run. Some observers fear over-regulation, which           members of the Editorial Advisory Board.
                                                                                     The publisher makes reasonable efforts to
could stifle stablecoins just as they’re edging toward mainstream usage.             ensure the timeliness and accuracy of its
   That would render the coins less useful as a medium of exchange, and throw        content, but is not engaged in any way in
                                                                                     offering professional services related to
the digital-transactions market back onto cards—plastic or virtual. In our           financial, legal, accounting, tax, or other
                                                                                     matters. Readers should seek professional
opinion, that would be a shame. Let’s hope the regulators can find a balance         counsel regarding such matters. All content
                                                                                     herein is copyright © 2021 Boland Hill Media
between user protection and the innovative benefits offered by stablecoins.          LLC. No part may be reproduced without the
                                                                                     express written permission of the publisher.
  John Stewart, Editor                                                               Subscription prices: $59/year for subscribers
                                                                                     in the United States; $69/year for Canadian
  john@digitaltransactions.net                                                       subscribers. All other subscribers, $119/year,
                                                                                     payable in U.S. currency.

4    DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
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The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
trends & tactics

PAYPAL, VENMO, AMAZON,
AND THE SUPER APP
PayPal Holdings Inc.’s big news in             PayPal has concentrated over the      Venmo will generate $900 million in
November was that U.S. users of its         past few years on finding ways for its   2021 revenue, Schulman said.
Venmo wallet will be able to pay with       P2P app to earn revenue. One of those       Amazon’s U.S. gross merchan-
Venmo on Amazon.com Inc.’s mas-             initiatives, Pay with Venmo, allows      dise volume, both directly and
sive marketplace and on the Amazon          users to pay merchants with funds        through third-party sellers, totaled
shopping app, starting in 2022.             in their account and PayPal to levy      $92.4 billion in the third quarter,
    The news comes as the latest devel-     transaction fees. Venmo’s payment        accounting for about 44% of the U.S.
opment in a long effort PayPal has          volume grew 36% in the quarter, to       e-commerce market, according to
engaged in to bolster Venmo’s ability       $60 billion, though PayPal does not      estimates from Digital Commerce 360.
to earn fee revenue and move beyond         break out volume for Pay with Venmo.        The Amazon deal represents the
its base of peer-to-peer payments.          Partly as a result of such efforts,      latest such marketplace agreement
“This is obviously a very significant
moment in monetizing Venmo,” said
PayPal chief executive Dan Schulman
while announcing the news during
                                            VENMO HELPS LIFT PAYPAL                                 $311.0
                                            (Total payment volume, in billions, by quarter)                       $309.9
an earnings call to discuss PayPal’s
third-quarter results.
    PayPal announced the Venmo deal                                                   $285.4
with Amazon even though an exact                                           $277.1
launch date hasn’t yet been fixed. “We’re
still working through the launch time
frame,” Schulman said, “We’re both                          $246.7
[PayPal and Amazon] eager to get going.
Think about the market share Amazon           $221.7
has in the United States. This [deal]
quite appreciably increases the address-
able market for Pay with Venmo.”            Q2 2020       Q3 2020       Q4 2020      Q1 2021      Q2 2021       Q3 2021
                                                                                                              Source: PayPal

6    DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                           TRENDS & TACTICS
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
struck by PayPal since the expiration
last year of the payments company’s         HOW THE CHIP SQUEEZE IS
                                            HELPING TAP-TO-MOBILE TECH
legal agreement with its former owner,
eBay Inc. PayPal separated from eBay
in 2015 but agreed to process payments
for the site for five years.                The continuing shortage of semicon-          and maintenance of the technology
    Separately, Schulman reported the       ductor chips is creating an opportu-         and more than 55% cited consumer
thorough-going redesign of the PayPal       nity for merchants and consumers             demand. Both are significant indica-
app, launched this summer, is on its way    to embrace tap-to-mobile payments,           tors of tap-to-mobile’s growing appeal.
to paying dividends for the company,        according to a study from payments               The chip shortage, which has pushed
though he didn’t announce numbers.          processor NMI.                               lead times for POS terminal orders out
“We’re focused on becoming an everyday         The survey, which polled mer-             to 26 to 30 weeks, compared to 12 weeks
app for consumers,” he told the analysts.   chants and consumers in the United           pre-Covid, is causing terminal prices
    The so-called super app supports        States and the United Kingdom,               to rise, especially on the spot market,
an array of payments, shopping, and         revealed that 95% of merchants said          according to payment-industry experts
financial features and represents the       they would consider tap-to-mobile            (“Out of the Chips,” September).
company’s first complete redesign of        payment technology to accept pay-                “For a lot of small merchants, the
its app in seven years. It also enables     ments. NMI defines tap-to-mobile             cost of a terminal can be a barrier to
cryptocurrency transactions, a feature
Schulman called out by announcing
it had led to a “15% lift in first-time                          ‘The cost of a terminal can be a barrier to
users of crypto.”
    In the increasingly critical buy                             entry. Eliminating that barrier can spur a
now, pay later arena, PayPal’s entry,                            lot of entrepreneurs to go this route.’
Pay in 4, has generated $5.4 billion                              —JEREMY GUMBLEY, CHIEF INFORMATION SECURITY OFFICER, NMI
in payment volume since its launch
late in the summer of 2020, Schul-          technology as a payment solution that        entry. Eliminating that barrier can
man said. “We will expand in early          converts a smart phone into a point-         spur a lot of entrepreneurs to go this
2022 to allow longer-term repayment         of-sale device that allows a consumer        route,” Gumbley says.
plans,” he added.                           to pay for a purchase by tapping her            Despite growing demand for tap-
    For the quarter, PayPal recorded        credit or debit card against the phone.      to-mobile, NMI’s research reveals that
$310 billion in payment volume                 “With the chip shortage that is affect-   34% of small and medium businesses
($300 billion excluding eBay), down         ing production of POS terminals not          in the U.S. still don’t offer contactless
slightly from the second quarter but        expected to end any time soon, there         payment options.
up 26% year-over-year. Active accounts      are a lot of merchants looking at remov-        In addition, the research reveals
reached 416 million, up 15%, including      ing [POS] hardware from the [payment         there is significant consumer demand
33 million merchant accounts. Reve-         acceptance] equation,” says Jeremy Gum-      for the technology. Indeed, 83% of
nue was up 13%, to almost $6.2 billion.     bley, chief information security officer     consumers surveyed said they would
    The transaction take rate, however,     for Schaumburg, Ill.-based NMI. “Tap-        likely use tap-to-mobile payments if
slipped to 1.81% from 2.06% a year          to-mobile is an alternative to POS ter-      it were offered by a merchant. Key
ago. PayPal attributes the decline in       minals because all merchants need to         reasons for using the technology are
this number, which measures PayPal’s        do to enable tap-to-mobile is download       convenience (76%) and speed (73%).
share of each transaction, to factors       an app to their mobile device.”                 Factors influencing merchants’
including lower eBay volumes and a             When asked what factors would             preference for tap-to-mobile include
larger share of payments at bigger          influence their decision to adopt tap-       security (53%), easy set up and instal-
merchants and marketplaces.                 to-mobile payments for their busi-           lation (46%), user friendliness (38%),
                       —John Stewart        ness, 63% of merchants cited cost            and good customer service (33.9%).

TRENDS & TACTICS                                                      DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                     7
The hype has quieted-but that doesn't mean Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google Pay are sitting still.
The ease of converting existing
mobile phones into a POS terminal                                 MASTERCARD EYES A DEEPER
is expected to keep interest in tap-
to-mobile solutions high, says Sam
Shawki, chief executive of Magic-
                                                                  INVOLVEMENT IN A2A TRANSFERS
Cube Inc., whose i-Accept software                                Mastercard reported a strong third                         account balances and ownership,
converts off-the-shelf mobile devices                             quarter as it builds out the founda-                       vital functions for transfer activ-
into point-of-sale terminals.                                     tions for a near-term future in which                      ity that doesn’t depend on cards.
    “This [the chip shortage] has been an                         it sees itself playing a central role                      “We see [A2A] as an opportunity, a
element that encourages some players                              in new transaction flows involving                         way to get volumes we’ve not his-
to look at us more closely …. Everyone                            account-to-account (A2A) transfers                         torically been involved with,” Mie-
that stopped talking to us are back                               and digital-currency payments.                             bach said. Years before these deals,
as they are looking at alternatives,”                                 Mastercard has been laying the                         Mastercard had laid the ground-
Shawki told Digital Transactions in                               groundwork for A2A business for at                         work for its nascent A2A business in
an interview conducted in August as                               least the past couple of years. The                        Europe with its acquisitions of the
part of the magazine’s research for                               payments network expects to close                          software firm Vocalink and Trans-
its September cover story, “Out of the                            by year’s end on its acquisition of                        fast Remittance LLC, a cross-border
Chips.” “It’s wind in our sails,” he added.                       Copenhagen-based open-banking                              payments specialist.
    Despite merchants’ growing incli-                             provider Aiia, chief executive Michael                         Mastercard is in a race with its
nation toward tap-to-mobile technol-                              Miebach said during an October earn-                       rival network, Visa Inc., to build out
ogy, there are lingering reservations                             ings call.                                                 its A2A capabilities, with Visa having
about the technology. According to                                    The deal, terms of which were not                      agreed in June to acquire Stockholm-
NMI, 50% of merchants have concerns                               announced, represents Mastercard’s                         based open-banking network Tink AB
about the security of the technology,                             second major acquisition in open                           in Europe. Earlier, Visa withdrew an
more than 35% say they don’t have the                             banking, following its $825-million                        offer to buy open-banking specialist
infrastructure to support the technol-                            pickup late last year of Salt Lake                         Plaid Inc. after the Department of
ogy, and 21% don’t want to incur the                              City-based Finicity Corp.                                  Justice objected to the deal on anti-
cost of adding a new payment option.                                  Both deals involve technology                          trust grounds.
                          —Peter Lucas                            that allows financial firms to verify                          Miebach denied the race to build
                                                                                                                             A2A capability will hurt his company’s
                                                                                                                             core card business. “We don’t see a
                                                                                                                             disintermediation risk. I see a way
                                  MONTHLY MERCHANT METRIC                                                                    to form partnerships and improve

 Growth in Same-Store Sales Year Over Year
 Annual volume
                                                                                                                             our [transaction] flows,” he said. “It’s
                                                                                                                             still early days.”
 change/growth             Q3 2020                                                                           2.61%               Other opportunities beckon for
 of retained
                           Q4 2020                                                                           1.54%           Mastercard, Miebach made clear.
 (non-attrited)
 accounts for                                                                                                                He cited the rapidly growing mar-
 given period              Q1 2021                                                                           8.73%           ket for buy now, pay later install-
 divided by total
 portfolio volume          Q2 2021                                                                          36.29%           ment lending online at the point
 from same period                                                                                                            of sale, for which Mastercard has
 of the prior year.        Q3 2021                                                                          15.39%
                                                                                                                             built an application programming
 Note: This is sourced from The Strawhecker Group’s merchant data                                                            interface called Mastercard Install-
 warehouse of over 3 million merchants in the U.S. market. The ability
 to understand this data is important as small and medium-size                                                               ments. There will be further devel-
 businesses (SMBs) and the payments providers that serve them are key drivers of the economy.                                opments soon, he promised. “Watch
 All data are for SMB merchants defined as merchants with less than $5 million in annual card volume.                        this space. More to come,” he told
 Source: The Strawhecker Group © Copyright 2021. The Strawhecker Group. All Rights Reserved. All information as available.
                                                                                                                             the analysts.

8     DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                                                                   TRENDS & TACTICS
MASTERCARD’S U.S. VOLUME                                                              Longer term, he said, his company
                                                                                      plans to support crypto transactions
 Q3 2020  Q3 2021 (Gross dollar volume, in billions)                                on central bank digital currencies,
                                                                                      which are digital versions of the dol-
                                                                                      lar and other national currencies.
                                                                                      “When it comes to crypto as a pay-
                                                                                      ment tool, we will make our network
                                                                                      able to do that when a government

                                               $299 $326
                                                                                      is ready,” he said.
                       $292                                                               For the quarter, gross dollar
                                                                                      volume for Mastercard in the U.S.
        $214                                                                          market climbed 20% to $618 billion.
                                                                                      That’s compared to a year-ago
                                                                                      quarter impacted by the pandemic.
                                                                                      Debit volume alone shot up 36% to
                                                                                      $292 billion. Overall volume globally
                Credit                                   Debit                        totaled $1.99 trillion, up 21%.
                                                                 Source: Mastercard
                                                                                          Revenue for the quarter came to
  Miebach also promised further            users buy and sell crypto. “We see         $4.99 billion, up 30%. Transaction
development of Mastercard’s early          a role in facilitating that,” he said,     processing, the biggest component
ventures into cryptocurrency. One          “It’s good from a volume perspec-          of that flow, grew 27% to $2.85 billion.
entry point, he said, lies in helping      tive, and there’s real opportunity.”                              —John Stewart

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SQUARE LOOKS TO ATTRACT BIGGER MERCHANTS
In the face of an ongoing pandemic,
Square Inc. last month reported a
record quarter for gross processing
                                           SQUARE’S VOLUME TAKES OFF
                                            (Gross payment volume in billions)
volume and made it plain its strategic
priorities are to move upmarket to          Q3 2020                   $31.7
larger merchants and to expand the          Q4 2020                   $32.0
user base for its consumer product,         Q1 2021                     $33.1
Cash App.                                   Q2 2021                            $42.8
   Recent moves include Square              Q3 2021                              $45.4
Invoices Plus, launched in the second
quarter and aimed at “larger, more
complex businesses,” said Square chief
executive Jack Dorsey during a call
with equity analysts. But other tac-
tics also support the thrust toward
bigger sellers, including Square’s
August announcement of its deal
to acquire the Australia-based buy
now, pay later provider Afterpay Ltd.
   That $29-billion investment,
expected to close early next year,
                                                                                                                Source: Square
not only launches Square into the
hot market for installment lending,       parental approval,” Dorsey stressed         currency for the Internet.” To that
it also brings into Square’s camp a       while touting the new feature, Cash         end, he said, Square is also “focus-
bevy of big chains, including such        App for Families.                           ing on building a hardware wallet.”
names as Bed, Bath, & Beyond, Dil-           Cash App for some time has sup-             A longtime Bitcoin enthusiast,
lard’s, and Gap. “Afterpay has done       ported Bitcoin trading and stock            Dorsey has said on previous earn-
very well with large retailers,” noted    investments. To bring commerce              ings calls that Square is focused on
Dorsey during the call.                   to the wallet, Square in September          the biggest digital currency and is
   The migration to larger sellers        launched Cash App Pay, which uses           not interested in supporting others.
has been evident among Square’s           QR codes to let users make contactless      This may not be surprising in view
existing seller base for some time.       transactions in stores. It’s not Square’s   of the $1.82 billion Square reported
Merchants with half a million dol-        first effort to launch a mobile wallet.     in Bitcoin revenue for the quarter,
lars or more in annual processing         But, with more than 40 million active       or 48% of all revenue.
volume accounted for 37% of Square’s      users of Cash App, the company is              For the quarter, Square reported
merchant volume of $41.7 billion in       betting this product will be its most       $3.84 billion in total revenue, up 27%
the third quarter, up from 31% a          successful. “There’s a lot of potential     year-over-year. It’s the second suc-
year ago and from 28% in the same         in having the scale we have, but we         cessive quarter Square has exceeded
period in 2019.                           can go much higher,” noted Dorsey.          $1 billion in transaction revenue
   On the consumer side of its busi-         With its Bitcoin capabilities, Cash      alone, and represents a near dou-
ness, Square’s other priority is growth   App supports another priority Dorsey        bling of that revenue since the third
in adoption and usage of Cash App, a      has set for Square. That, he said, is       quarter of 2018.
digital wallet now open to teens “with    “helping Bitcoin become the native                                  —John Stewart

10     DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                           TRENDS & TACTICS
I’M CLOSING MY SERIES on quan-                                                        to play with two dice, and the game
tum computing and payments with                                                       returns to the way it was. And so
an introduction of the underlying                                                     does the score.
vision, pregnant with a bouquet of                                                        What happened? Randomness
shining scenarios for a level playing                            gideon@bitmint.com   denied Mr. Sophisticato his smarts
field in cyber territory.                                                             advantage. The players could not
   Quantum computers are surpris-                                                     play any better than randomness
ingly non-deterministic in that they      who laments that his IQ advantage           allowed, nor could they play worse
are governed by probability. The lot-     over Mr. Innocento is not coming            than randomness dictated. Random-
tery they play on runs on what we         into play.                                  ness cannot be defeated by math-
might call cyber oil—randomness.              So Mr. Sophisticato contrives a         ematical wisdom.
Much as the 20th Century ran on           scheme. He proposes to Mr. Innocento            The payment-security lesson for us
crude oil, this century runs on cyber     a slight change in the game. Instead of     is: Increase the role of randomness,
oil. It took us a while to realize that   tossing one die, they will throw two.       and decrease the role of mathemati-
crude oil is the source of plastic,       The guesser will guess the outcome,         cal sophistication. A smart mathema-
asphalt, medicine … and climate           not from one to six but from two to         tician will be defeated by a smarter
change. Similarly, one by one, we         twelve. Mr. Innocento readily agrees.       one (who is often a hacker). But a
learn that cyber oil has a lot to offer   But then something strange happens.         randomness shield works every time
for the betterment of society in gen-     While Mr. Innocento is guessing all         it is tried.
eral and for money and payment in         over the place, sometimes two, some-            A caveat: Randomness deliv-
particular.                               times three, sometimes twelve, and          ers only if it is high grade, that is,
   Randomness is the undefeatable         so on, Mr. Sophisticato invariably          quantum grade. Fake randomness
equalizer. How so? Bear with me for       guesses seven.                              (which is most of the randomness
this short tale. Mr. Sophisticato and         When the sun sets, Mr. Sophisti-        used for cyber security) is defeatable
Mr. Innocento come together to play       cato counts $1,850 and Mr. Innocento,       by smarter math.
dice. One throws a single die, and the    $150. A similar gap happens the next            What can be done then? Random-
other is to guess the outcome. If the     day, and the next. Mr. Innocento is         ness affects every facet of the pay-
guess is correct, the thrower pays        at his wit’s end. How did his luck          ment realm, from choice of cipher
a dollar to the guesser. Then, they       switch on him? Little does he know          to network processing, data storage,
switch roles.                             that math advised Mr. Sophisticato          origination, validation, summation,
   Both players bring $1,000 to           to choose seven every time. There           settlement, legacy payment, digital
the game. After ten hours of play,        are six dice combinations resulting         currency, Internet of Things pay-
Mr. Sophisticato counts $1,020 in his     in seven (1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1])    ment, cross-border payment—down
pocket, and Mr. Innocento counts          while two and twelve appear only in         to behavioral solutions. Watch for
$980. The next day, Mr. Sophisticato      a single combination.                       coming columns.
finds only $970 in his wallet, and            But then Mr. Innocento has a flash-         The first important step is to inter-
Mr. Innocento clocks $1,030. So it        back. Things looked quite different         nalize this unexpected realization
goes, day after day. This persistent      when they played with one die only.         that cyber space is run on cyber oil—
equality annoys Mr. Sophisticato,         He resolutely withdraws his consent         randomness.

TRENDS & TACTICS                                                 DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                     11
THE REGULATORY PENDULUM is                                                                that they provide access to money
swinging again in Washington, and                                                         that workers have already earned.
while the changes might be predict-                                                          Using both of these hearings as a
able, they are not always optimal for                                  bjackson@ipa.org   guide to what is coming next, one dis-
consumers.                                                                                appointing trend is that preconceived
    The Consumer Financial Protec-           shut down and when the large play-           notions seem to rule the day. Even
tion Bureau got a new director when          ers repeatedly break the law, it feels       the titles of the hearings spell out the
Rohit Chopra was confirmed by the            like nothing happens,” Chopra said.          attitudes of lawmakers. Depending
Senate on Sept. 30, and the Biden            “In my testimony, I submitted one of         on who’s talking, either regulators
Administration has nominated a new           the areas that is going to be a focus for    are the devil or industry is the devil.
Comptroller of the Currency.                 me is the issue of repeat offenders.”        People in the industry and, more
    Additionally, Congress continues             But even with that focus on big          important, the customers themselves,
to take an active interest in the pay-       companies, Congress, and with them           know that neither is true.
ments business. The House Financial          the regulators, are not going to ignore         Whether a financial product is
Services Committee and its Financial         the rest of the industry. On Nov. 2, the     good or bad often depends on the
Technology Task Force held hearings          Task Force on Financial Technology           circumstances of the people using it.
on a wide variety of payment prod-           held a hearing entitled “Buy Now, Pay        Too often, regulators and consumer
ucts. These hearings provide clues           More Later? Investigating Risks and          advocates operate on the assumption
about the attitudes and agendas for          Benefits of BNPL and Other Emerging          that everyone has the same access
both regulators and legislators.             Fintech Cash Flow Products.”                 to products and services (and oper-
    On Oct. 27, Chopra testified in a            The hearing covered the short-           ates on the same income level) as
hearing entitled “Bringing Consumer          term financing now being offered at          someone in Congress or a lawyer at
Protection Back: A Semi-Annual Review        the point of sale and in online check-       a nonprofit has. While they intellec-
of the Consumer Financial Protection         outs by non-traditional lenders. It          tually understand that many people
Bureau.” The title reflects that many in     also looked at earned-wage-access            could not manage a $400 emergency
Congress expect regulators to step up        products that provide workers with           expense, it appears they have no vis-
their scrutiny of the industry.              access to the money they have earned         ceral sense of what that means.
    In the hearing, Chopra pledged to        outside of traditional pay cycles.              As with any other issue facing this
do this, citing mortgages, consumer              This and the Chopra hearing make         country, the reality is not reflected
debt, and big technology companies           it plain that credit products are top        in radical rhetoric. The industry,
as three areas of early focus. He also       of mind for regulators and legisla-          regulators, and even advocates need
noted that he plans to hold organiza-        tors. Brian Tate, the chief executive        to come together to ensure that laws
tions of all kinds accountable.              of the Innovative Payments Associa-          and regulations do not end up hurting
    “I have to tell you, one of the things   tion, testified on earned-wage-access        the very people they are supposed to
that bothers me so much is when              products and tried to make it clear          protect by eliminating the ability for
small players break the law, they get        that these products are not credit in        certain products to exist.

12      DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                              TRENDS & TACTICS
ONLY ONE OF THESE BIRDS CAN
                            GIVE YOU THE LATEST NEWS
                      IMPACTING THE PAYMENTS MARKET

Today and every day follow
DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS
@DTPAYMENTNEWS on Twitter
Real-time payments            THE TECHNOLOGY TO ENABLE                    a March report from ACI Worldwide
                              REAL-TIME PAYMENTS at the point             Inc., ranked ninth in real-time pay-
  have proven value           of sale is available today. But many        ments transactions with 1.2 billion.
 for many payment             questions remain: Are consumers
                              ready? Are merchants ready? Is the
                                                                          India had the most, 25.5 billion.
                                                                              Some payments executives don’t
needs. Now, experts           payments ecosystem ready?                   hesitate. “Absolutely,” says Brady
                                  The answer is, kind of. The hesi-       Harris, chief executive of Dwolla
       are looking at         tation is like that you see with any        Inc., a Des Moines, Iowa-based com-
mining the potential          change in payments. Questions sur-
                              face over whether real-time payments
                                                                          pany that specializes in application
                                                                          programming interfaces for digital
 for real time at the         at the point of sale will overly disrupt
                              the regular flow of transactions.
                                                                          payments. In April, Dwolla debuted
                                                                          an API that can connect fintechs to
        point of sale.            Plus, questions remain about            The Clearing House Payments Co.
                              demand. Is there really a market for        LLC’s Real Time Payments network.
                              real-time payments at the point of              TCH’s RTP service primarily
BY   KEVIN WOODWARD           sale? After all, the United States, as of   enables financial institutions to offer
                                                                          the real-time payment service to their
                                                                          business clients, which can then offer
                                                                          it to their customers. TCH declined
                                                                          to discuss real-time payments at the
                                                                          point of sale. “We have a lot going on
                                                                          with RTP right now, but POS is not
                                                                          one of them. It is something RTP
                                                                          will address in the future, but not
                                                                          right now,” a TCH spokesperson says
                                                                          via email.
                                                                              The Federal Reserve is developing
                                                                          a real-time payment service called
                                                                          FedNow, but it is not expected to be
                                                                          available until 2023. The Fed did not
                                                                          respond to a Digital Transactions
                                                                          inquiry for this story.
                                                                              “Transactions should happen as
                                                                          fast as the Internet moves,” Harris
                                                                          says. “As real-time payments continue

14    DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                         ACQUIRING
to be more widely used by consumers             “The interesting thing is that RTP      the regulators. Here in the United
of all ages and technology abilities,        capabilities advertise as being able to    States, innovators are pushing the
RTP will be essential for point-of-          have other industry players partici-       real-time payment movement, caus-
sale transactions.”                          pate in the ecosystem more directly,”      ing banks and government regulators
                                             Allen says. “I’m sure the online mer-      to play catch-up.”
‘A LASTING TREND’                            chant community would love to get
                                             their money faster.” One acquirer,
                                                                                           As a result, he adds, “As policymak-
                                                                                        ers and financial institutions start to
Others agree. “Absolutely,” says             EVO Payments Inc., added in 2020 the       catch up with the fintech industry,
Erika Baumann, director of com-              Visa Direct push-payment service as        retailers and even countries will feel
mercial banking and payments at              a settlement option for merchants.         even more comfortable utilizing faster
Aite-Novarica Group, a Boston-based          Funds can be credited to a debit card      account-to-account transactions.”
consulting and research firm. “For           at any time.                                  The Deloitte report also suggests
small businesses in particular, [real-          Real-time payments at the point         that technology innovation, such as
time payments] can have a dramatic           of sale have the potential to speed up     pervasive smart-phone adoption and
impact on cash flow.”                        merchant funding, lower payment-           consumer use of digital wallets, will
    “There are so many options, Pay-         acceptance fees compared to credit         have a large role in real-time payments
Pal, Zelle, RTP,” she says. “The issue       and debit cards, and increase vis-         adoption. New providers, merchant
really is how to change expectations         ibility around payment status and          and consumer expectations, how regu-
of the POS experience. [With] online,        transaction information. But can           lators treat real-time payments, and
[it] is much easier to align expecta-        that potential be realized?                increasing globalization will all have
tions than in a retail location, due to         “You are seeing different markets       an impact on real-time payments
how we as consumers and business             and industries realize the potential       adoption, too, the report says.
owners have been conditioned.”               of real-time payments,” says Harris.
    Now, some consulting firms are
measuring the potential for real time
                                             “The shift towards real-time pay-
                                             ments for point-of-sale and online
                                                                                        ‘THE PARADIGM WILL SHIFT’
payments at the checkout counter.            shopping is going to be a lasting trend    What will it take to get real-time
Deloitte published its “Real-time            that will become a standard option         payments in regular use at the point
payments are changing the reality            moving forward.”                           of sale?
of payments” report that discussed              Harris says a number of factors            “Merchants. They’re the ones who
the opportunity the payment method           could affect the ability of real-time      typically pay the cost of transactions,”
presents. Christopher Allen, Deloitte        payments to have a larger role in retail   says Ravneet K. Randhawa, senior
Consulting managing director and             payments. “Banking and govern-             manager of payments transforma-
payments sector lead, says there will        ment regulations are in the process of     tion at Deloitte Consulting. “They
be point-of-sale and online opportu-         catching up to fintech solutions,” he      would play a significant role in driv-
nities for real-time payments.               says. “In Europe, the faster-payment       ing adoption of real-time payments
                                             movement was very much driven by           in the retail space.”

                                          ‘As policymakers and financial institutions start to
                                             catch up with the fintech industry, retailers and
                                              even countries will feel even more comfortable
                                            utilizing faster account-to-account transactions.’
                                                                               —BRADY HARRIS, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, DWOLLA INC.

ACQUIRING                                                          DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                   15
‘Right now, real-time payments
              are thought of as beneficial for
              the recipient, but not as much
              for the payor. As real-time
 becomes more the norm, the paradigm
 will shift to be accepted as normal.’
     —ERIKA BAUMANN, DIRECTOR OF COMMERCIAL BANKING
                  AND PAYMENTS, AITE-NOVARICA GROUP

    As Harris explains, the impact          is like an instant debit,” she says.      from account to account at not even
real-time payments at the point of          “The U.S. has been more of a credit-      a quarter of the cost and with just
sale could have on acceptance costs         based economy. However, we did see        as much reliability?” adding that
is substantial, “which is why you see       a shift in the pandemic. It would be      Dwolla is working on how to intro-
the big-time card processors start-         interesting to see how this plays out     duce account-to-account payments
ing to invest in alternative payment        in the longer run.”                       with real-time speed in a retail envi-
methods. Real-time payment technol-            What could aid the adoption for        ronment. He did not share details.
ogy will be offered alongside credit        point-of-sale transactions? “Real-
cards,” he says.
    “And because of how expensive
                                            time payments are slowly becoming
                                            understood and expected by the mar-
                                                                                      AN ‘EMBEDDED’ OPTION
credit card fees are to a business,”        ket,” Aite-Novarica’s Baumann says.       Real-time payments at the point of
Harris continues, “we are seeing               She looks at the adoption of the       sale may not show up in a big way
brands use account-to-account trans-        Check 21 legislation 17 years ago as an   in 2022, but sources for this article
actions to actually create their own        example of how real-time payments         agree it will happen relatively soon.
customer loyalty debit card and offer       at the point of sale might advance.           “From merchants’ perspectives, they
rewards with the transaction sav-           “… Everyone panicked about what it        would like to get their money faster,”
ings, making account-to-account             would mean to convert a check to an       Deloitte’s Allen says. “The merchant
more appealing than a credit card           electronic payment, and that anxiety      side would like to be a bigger player
for their customers.”                       went away as a new norm was estab-        in the payment ecosystem. Potentially,
    One early adopter of that logic was     lished,” she says.                        real-time payments has the ability to
ZipLine, a private-label debit-payment         “As [real-time development] con-       allow for that. From the consumer
service for convenience stores that is      tinues and accessibility expands, it      side, it will create more innovation.”
now owned by Professional Datasolu-         will become more prevalent at the             He adds, though, that “research
tions Inc. While not a real-time pay-       POS,” she adds. “Right now, real-time     has suggested that consumers aren’t
ments variant, it does showcase the         payments are thought of as beneficial     completely unhappy with how they
account-to-account example.                 for the recipient, but not as much for    pay for things.”
    Still, Deloitte’s Allen cautions that   the payor. As real-time becomes more          Still, the point-of-sale future has a
credit cards offer benefits that real-      the norm, the paradigm will shift to      place for real-time payments. “It will
time payments, at least at this time,       be accepted as normal.”                   be part of the POS experience,” Bau-
do not, such as extended warranties            As Harris says, “On e-commerce         mann says. “Online, this is selecting
and fraud-protection plans.                 sites, customers value choice and         the payment method at checkout. At a
    And consumers may need some             expect a variety of payment options.      POS terminal, it will be embedded in
coaxing, Randhawa says. “One thing          Why pay a fee on top of your trans-       the options we see today like tap-to-
to consider is that real-time payments      action when the funds can move            pay or Apple Pay through a device.”

16      DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                                    ACQUIRING
And you thought             IT IS ONE OF THE IRONIES of the             Some observers aren’t surprised.
                             payments business these days that        “Stablecoins promise something
 stablecoins were            there seems to be little that’s stable   they’re basically not delivering,” says

   all about ‘set it         about the news surrounding stable-
                             coins. For a concept that came on
                                                                      James Royal, senior wealth reporter at
                                                                      Bankrate.com. “They promise they’re
     and forget it.’         the scene a scant seven years ago to
                             answer complaints about the wild
                                                                      backed by cash, and they’re not.”
                                                                         Still, if any cryptocurrency concept
  Some—including             volatility of Bitcoin, stablecoins
                             have grown to a collective mar-
                                                                      seems ripe to function as a means of
                                                                      exchange, it would be stablecoins.
the government—              ket cap of more than $140 billion
                             as of mid-November, according to
                                                                      This is blockchain currency, like Bit-
                                                                      coin, but unlike Bitcoin its value is
 think otherwise.            Coinmarketcap.com.                       tied to that of a national currency, in
                                Yet rising concerns about the         nearly all cases, the U.S. dollar. There
                             potential for runs, money laundering,    may be small fluctuations, but over
                             and terrorism financing led govern-      time the price of a single stablecoin,
                             ment officials last month to recom-      like Tether or USDC, is supposed to
                             mend Congress regulate this rela-        zero in on $1.
     BY   JOHN STEWART       tively new species of cryptocurrency.       These tokens have grown fast over
                                                                      the past year, rising from a total mar-
                                                                      ket cap last fall around $25 billion.
                                                                      And new entrants could supercharge
                                                                      that growth further. One such can-
                                                                      didate is the Diem stablecoin, for-
                                                                      merly known as Libra, which has
                                                                      yet to launch. Its backer, Facebook
                                                                      Inc., has already introduced a Diem
                                                                      digital wallet, known as Novi.

                                                                      A PERFECT BRIDGE’
                                                                      That vaunted price stability has
                                                                      attracted major payments entities
                                                                      that otherwise have looked askance
                                                                      at the dizzying runups and scary
                                                                      pratfalls of other cryptocurrencies.
                                                                      Mastercard Inc. in July said it will
                                                                      work with a pair of issuing banks and

18   DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                      NETWORKS
several service providers to test con-       And right now, stablecoins are           USDC, at $34.4 billion the second-
verting crypto coins to stablecoins for   coming on fast. At BitPay Inc., a plat-     largest stablecoin by market cap,
direct acceptance of crypto-backed        form that supports crypto transac-          behind only Tether.
cards on its network.                     tions, the USDC stablecoin accounted
    Mastercard’s announcement fol-
lowed a similar move by Visa Inc.,
                                          for 15.1% of volume in October, up
                                          from 1% a year earlier, says Bill Zielke,
                                                                                      ‘A LOT TO UNPACK’
which late in March said its inte-        chief marketing officer. Much of this       But some of that momentum could
gration with San Francisco-based          activity, he adds, stems from cross-        be sapped by a federal government
Anchorage Hold LLC, the first fed-        border payments, where senders are          that isn’t so sure this branch of cryp-
erally chartered digital-asset bank,      looking to avoid the costs of conven-       tocurrency is such a good idea. The
allowed the network to process its        tional channels. “Wire transfers can        root cause of this skepticism lies in
first transaction involving direct        be expensive and cumbersome” by             the backing for these digital dollars.
settlement with a stablecoin, in this     comparison, he adds.                           Stablecoin developers are supposed
case, USD Coin (USDC).                       Indeed, a digital transfer at the        to keep reserves in hard currency
    “As a payments guy, I think crypto    blink of an eye and at low cost explains    equal to the value of the coins they
is coming on a transaction network,       much of the increasing appeal of            have minted. In at least some cases,
and stablecoins are a very impor-         stablecoins. “We provide that per-          however, they have been found to
tant [push] behind that,” says Cliff      fect bridge, a seamless transition          have used some cash along with com-
Gray, who follows cryptocurrency as       from legacy systems to fast, cheap          mercial paper, short-term corporate
a senior associate at The Strawhecker     systems,” says Rachel Mayer, vice           debt, or other such non-cash assets.
Group, an Omaha, Neb.-based pay-          president of product at Circle Inter-          Such investments can generate
ments consultancy.                        net Financial Inc., the developer of        income for the stablecoin sponsor,

      THE ONLY MAGAZINE COVERING
      THE TOTAL PAYMENTS MARKET
                                                    In 2019, there were 150.2 billion
                                                    digital transactions in North America.
                                                    Digital Transactions magazine covered
                                                    them all. It is the only publication
                                                    addressing the total market.
                                                                               Subscribe today by going to
                                                                Bolandhill.omeda.com/dtr/ to start tackling
                                                                      the ever-changing payments market.
TOP 10 STABLECOINS BY MARKET CAP
(As of mid-afternoon Central Time, Nov. 15)
                                                                                         private-sector innovation in sta-
                                                                                         blecoins,” notes Eric Grover, princi-
                                                                                         pal at Intrepid Ventures, a Minden,
  1 Tether                                                           $73.9 billion       Nev.-based payments consultancy.
                                                                                             Grover backs disclosure require-
 2 USD Coin                                                          $34.4 billion       ments for stablecoin sponsors but
 3 Binance USD                                                       $12.8 billion       suspects some regulators may be
                                                                                         angling for stricter rules to hobble
 4 Dai                                                                $6.5 billion       private-sector initiatives and protect
 5 TerraUSD                                                           $5.4 billion       a future central bank digital currency
                                                                                         (CBDC) tied to the dollar and likely
 6 TrueUSD                                                             $1.2 billion      controlled by the Federal Reserve.
 7 Pax Dollar                                                       $946 million             Such government-backed digital
                                                                                         currencies have been topics of discus-
 8 Neutrino USD                                                     $559 million         sion in a number of countries. “I worry
                                                                                         about that,” says Grover. “This notion
 9 Reserve Rights                                                   $552 million
                                                                                         that the Fed is benign and fintechs
10 Fei USD                                                          $424 million         are risky. That concern is wrong, but
          Total market cap for all 70 stablecoins: $140.2 billion                        it’s clear that it’s out there.”
                                                             Source: Coinmarketcap.com

which makes them more attractive            and the Office of the Comptroller
                                                                                         ‘NO COMPARISON’
than cash, but that kind of backing         of the Currency early last month             For now, sponsors are chiefly inter-
could prove problematic, to say the         issued sweeping recommendations              ested in developing use cases that
least, were there a run on any of these     to address what they called “signifi-        can maximize stablecoins’ inherent
coins. “At a time of stress, those assets   cant and growing risks.”                     advantages—a primary one having
could be marked down, making the               These boiled down to a suggested          to do with enabling low-cost trans-
coins worth less than a dollar,” says       trio of new regulations. The first one,      fers in markets like remittances.
Bankrate.com’s Royal. “It’s a problem       which would mandate that issuers be          Circle has formed ties to both Visa
generally for stablecoins.”                 insured depository institutions, cap-        and Mastercard for settlement of
   By contrast, non-stablecoin block-       tured the most notice, But the other         payments in USDC at rock-bottom
chain currencies, like Bitcoin, may         two could be equally consequential:          cost, Mayer says. “To settle $1 million
have volatility problems but are gen-       that custodial-wallet providers be           in USDC transactions, it’s orders of
erally not seen as run risks. “Bit-         subject to federal oversight and that        magnitude less than a traditional
coin doesn’t have to have backing           issuers be subjected to limits on affili-    transfer,” she notes.
because it derives its value from its       ations with commercial enterprises.             The same holds for such fast-
utility as the most widely accepted            For their part, issuers are pub-          growing markets as gig-economy
[cryptocurrency] coin,” notes Aaron         licly promising cooperation with             payouts, “where, with the econom-
McPherson, an independent fintech           any new regulations, whatever their          ics of sending $30 to Nigeria, there’s
and payments consultant.                    private opinions may be. “There’s a          no comparison [with stablecoins],”
   Fears of a general rout in sta-          lot to unpack, and we’re hard at work        Mayer adds. “It’s orders of magni-
blecoins—and a resulting general            working with the federal agencies,”          tude cheaper” than a card network.
markdown in value—grow steadily             says Circle’s Mayer.                            It may be hard to beat costs like
along with the coins’ market caps.             But not all observers agree there’s       that, but stablecoins may first have to
In response, the President’s Working        a problem, let alone a need for new          find some stable ground with the Feds
Group on Financial Markets, the Fed-        government fixes. “One has to worry          and other skeptics before they can
eral Deposit Insurance Corporation,         the regulatory regime will stifle            profitably press that advantage.

20       DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                                     NETWORKS
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The hype around
 Apple Pay, Samsung Pay,
and Google Pay has quieted
  considerably. But that
doesn’t mean the three big
  wallets are sitting still.
                         BY PETER LUCAS
When the so-called Pay wallets—           iPhone or Android phone, was 27%,
Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, and Google        according to payment consultancy
Pay—launched in 2014, 2015 and 2018,      Auriemma Group Inc. Fast forward
respectively, they did so to great fan-   to late 2021, and that figure jumps to
fare. At the time, the expectation        44%; respectable growth, but still less
was that these mobile wallets could       than half of eligible users.
potentially make traditional card-            Another indicator of the Pays’
based payments obsolete.                  struggles to gain traction is the low
   Mobile wallets were considered         percentage of consumers linking a
groundbreaking payment technology         credit card to one of them. That figure
because they gave consumers tap-and-      held flat at 15% in 2016 and 2017, then
go payment capability through their       dropped to 14% in 2018, according to
smart phones, which greatly reduced       Phoenix Marketing International,
friction at the point-of-sale. That       which tracks the wallets.
convenience, along with the weight            In 2019, that percentage jumped to
and consumer awareness of the Apple,      18%, and then to 26% in 2020, when
Samsung, and Google brands, made the      the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated
ceiling for the Pays seem unlimited.      consumer adoption of contactless
   In the intervening years, much of      payments. Nevertheless, indications
the marketing hype around the Pays        are that growth is flattening again,
has died down and consumer adop-          with 27% of consumers having a credit
tion has been sluggish.                   card linked to one of the Pay wallets
   In 2016, for example, adoption         through the first half of the year.
among consumers eligible to use a             Even Apple Pay, the largest of the
Pay wallet, i.e., consumers with an       Pays with 43.9 million users, according

DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS                                DECEMBER 2021         23
to research firm Insider Intelligence,
has followed a similar trend line when
it comes to consumers linking a card.                 HOW THE PAYS STACK UP
                                                                      (User counts in millions)
From 2016 to 2018, that percentage of
consumers held steady at 10%, then                                          2021  2025 1
climbed to 12% in 2019. In 2020, the
figure jumped to 16%, then leveled off
at 17% during the first half of 2021,
according to Phoenix Marketing.
    Again, the figures, while respect-
able, are not world beaters, payments
experts say. If nothing else, they
are an indication the Pays have not
accomplished what they and many
observers expected terms of adop-
                                                           54.5
tion and usage.
    “A lot of mistakes were made by
                                                43.9
the Pays when they launched, includ-                                                 32.2
ing a stretched adoption curve [and]
technical and acceptance problems.
                                                                           25.0
And when they didn’t spark like ini-                                                                 16.3 17.6
tially thought, the marketing fervor
around them ceased and there was no
real backup plan [to reignite them],”              Apple Pay                  Google Pay              Samsung Pay
says Leon Majors, senior vice presi-                                                 1. Projected Source: Insider Intelligence
dent, payments systems practice, at
Phoenix Marketing.
                                             “Millennials and Gen Zers make          or they are integrated as one-click
      ‘FULLY INTEGRATED’                  up 68% of mobile proximity pay-
                                          ments, and their use of the technol-
                                                                                     checkout options in-app, which makes
                                                                                     them more convenient than other
That’s on the negative side of the led-   ogy is great news for the future [of       methods,” says Nick Maynard, head
ger. While the wallets may not have       the Pay wallets],” says Jaime Toplin,      of research for Juniper Research.
met their initial lofty expectations      a senior research analyst for Insider         To be sure, the Pays still face many
for adoption, payment experts say         Intelligence.                              challenges when it comes to broad-
they remain a force to be reckoned           The second reason is that Pay           ening consumer adoption beyond
with. They cite two primary reasons.      users have shown a preference for          online usage and their popularity
   First, the Pays are extremely popu-    using their wallets online, as opposed     among Millennials and Gen Zers. If
lar among Millennials and Gen Zers,       to in-store. That’s encouraging, as        the Pays are to become truly ubiq-
which consider it easier to pay with      e-commerce sales have rocketed since       uitous, especially outside their core
a mobile wallet than with a physi-        the Covid-19 pandemic hit and show         audience, they will need to find ways
cal card. Indeed, more than 36% of        no signs of a slowdown nearly two          to attract new users and increase
the population of the United States,      years into the health crisis.              daily usage, payments experts say.
ages 14 and up, have made at least           A big reason for why the Pays are          “With the exception of Millenni-
one mobile proximity transaction          getting used more for online pur-          als and Gen Zers, a large percentage
in the last six months, according to      chases is that “in a lot of cases these    of consumers don’t see the value of
Insider Intelligence. By 2025, that       wallets are fully integrated in the user   migrating to a mobile wallet, espe-
figure is projected to rise to 43.7%.     journeys for respective app stores,        cially with contactless cards more

24      DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                                                     REMEMBER THE PAYS?
and loyalty information, all of which

                      IT’S PROGRESS—                                                           can be organized around conversa-
                                                                                               tions with other users, former Google

                     BUT IS IT ENOUGH?                                                         general manager and vice president
                                                                                               Caesar Sengupta said in a blog post
                                                                                               at the time. In April, Sengupta left
                       (Percentage of cardholders linking
                         a credit card to a Pays 1 wallet)                                     Google after nearly 15 years to pur-
                                                                                               sue entrepreneurial opportunities.
                                                                                                  Despite Sengupta’s departure,
                                                                                               Google has remained on track for
            2016                            2017                          2018                 introducing new enhancements to

           15%                            15%                            14%                   Google Pay. “This spring we intro-
                                                                                               duced new features which help users
                                                                                               find the latest grocery deals, quickly
                                                                                               search their spending by category or
                                                                                               business, and a way to send money to
                                                                                               friends and family abroad in India and
                                                                                               Singapore, thanks to an integration
            2019                           2020                           20212                with Wise and Western Union,” says

           18%                           26%                             27%                   Josh Woodward, Google Pay’s senior
                                                                                               director of product management.
                                                                                                  More enhancements are planned
                                                                                               for the coming year. Starting in 2022,
                                                                                               Google Pay users will reportedly be
  1. Apple Pay, Google Pay, Samsung Pay 2. Through first half 2021 Source: Phoenix Marketing   able to access Groupon deals through
                                                                                               their wallet.
                                                                                                  “There’s a need for a new, mobile
widely available,” says Thad Peter-                don’t necessarily think of using it         money experience for people who have
son, strategic advisor, retail bank-               for payment,” says Jaclyn Holmes,           grown up in a mobile-first environ-
ing and payments at Boston-based                   director of research at the Auriemma        ment, where everything from hailing
consultancy Aite-Novarica Group.                   Group. “People have shown they              a cab to opening a bank account can
                                                   like that feature, and if they have         be done with simple taps on a mobile
   ‘A HOLISTIC APPROACH’                           a good experience with it, it helps
                                                   hook users.”
                                                                                               device … so with the new Google Pay
                                                                                               app, we took a holistic approach to
The Pays are on that case. To attract new             Google Pay has taken a different         money by allowing [users] to man-
users, Apple Pay and Google Pay have               approach, focusing on helping users         age all [their] finances in one place,”
focused on adding non-payment adja-                manage their finances and spending          Woodward says.
cent features to raise awareness of their          through the wallet, as opposed to              One aspect of the Google Pay
respective wallets among consumers.                using it strictly as a payment vehi-        revamp that won’t come to fruition
   Apple Pay, for example has posi-                cle. That revamp began in late 2020         is the wallet’s plans to offer bank
tioned itself as a place where users can           when Google Pay parent Alphabet Inc.        accounts through its Plex service.
digitally store identification cards,              announced plans to add new features         Google announced in October it was
such as driver’s licenses and vac-                 intended to increase daily usage.           abandoning that initiative. The plan
cination, loyalty, and membership                     The plan calls for Google Pay users      had called for Google Pay users to have
cards, even boarding passes.                       to have the ability to pay for, and         access to their checking and savings
   “It’s a move that creates a gateway             split, purchases between users, see         accounts, and eventually a debit card,
to using the wallet for people that                past transactions, and find offers          as well as set savings goals.

REMEMBER THE PAYS?                                                        DIGITAL TRANSACTIONS | DECEMBER 2021                 25
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