The economic performance of England's regions - UK Regional Economic Forecast December 2020 - EY
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
The economic
performance
of England’s
regions
UK Regional Economic Forecast
December 2020
UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 1
ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Contents
Introduction 01
Regional focus 02
1 North East 03
Introduction
2 North West 04
3 Yorkshire and the Humber 05
We are very pleased to share our sixth economic forecast Despite the challenging outlook, there is opportunity.
4 East Midlands 06 for England’s regions, cities and towns. As a nationwide
employer, committed to supporting efforts to rebalance the
country’s economic geography, our forecasts are designed
Although COVID-19 delivered a huge economic and health
cost, the response to the pandemic showed us that there
are alternative ways to organise our economic and social
5
to help broaden understanding and to advance the debate. activities. With our research showing that both businesses
West Midlands 07 We will be working with our colleagues across the country and consumers are aware of the opportunities which
to share the detailed findings with local stakeholders. change offers, and are keen to explore them, we believe
6
there is a unique opportunity to transform England’s
East of England 08 As we reach the end of 2020, the launch of a vaccination economy and move to the Next Level — a more prosperous
programme points to light at the end of the tunnel. This and balanced economy. This document is intended to give
is reflected in our economic forecast, with the EY ITEM details of the regional performance. Click here to download
7
Club projecting a return to growth in 2021. However, the forecast in full where, we identify the key steps
South East 09 the consequences of the shock delivered by COVID-19 required to make this vision a reality.
will remain with us for some time. This is particularly
8
true in respect of the Government’s ambition to level up We firmly believe in the potential of ‘levelling up’ and
South West 10 the economy, and our forecast suggests that on current are committed to supporting attempts to maximise the
trends, the gap between the North and South of the opportunities and performance in all parts of the country.
country is likely to widen over the next three years, and We look forward to the opportunity to share and develop
9 London 11 cities are expected to pull further away from towns. our ideas with you.
Contact us 12
Notes 13
Definitions 14
Rohan Malik Mark Gregory
UK&I Managing Partner — UK Chief Economist,
Government and Infrastructure, Ernst & Young LLP
Ernst & Young LLP
2 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 1
ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
1
Regional North East
focus • According to the latest Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI), output in the
Employment structure: North East vs UK (excl. London), 2019
Human health and social work
North East increased for the fourth
Public administration
consecutive month in October 2020.
Manufacturing
However, like the rest of the UK, the pace
Education
of this growth has slowed since August.
Accommodation and food service
• Labour market data has been fairly
Other service activities
mixed for the North East. The total
Real estate activities Small relative Large relative
number of workforce jobs rose by 0.9% to UK excl. to UK excl.
over the year to June 2020, despite a Information and communication
London London
0.7% contraction nationally. However, Financial and insurance activities
the more timely Labour Force Survey Construction
(LFS) reports that employment fell by Arts, entertainment and recreation
0.8% in the quarter to September 2020 Administrative and support service
compared with the same period a year Transportation and storage
earlier — this contraction was broadly in Utilities, extraction and agriculture
line with that of the UK. The region also Wholesale and retail trade
recorded a rise in the unemployment Professional, scientific and technical
rate over the same period, up to 6.7% -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5
of the population aged 16 and above Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
from 5.9%.
• The North East recorded the weakest
GVA growth: North East vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23
growth house prices in the 12 months
to August 2020, growing by 0.2% Utilities, extraction and agriculture
compared to 2.5% nationally. Financial and insurance activities
• The North East will be among the Accommodation and food service
weakest performing regions over the Other service activities
period 2020-23, with GVA contracting Wholesale and retail trade
by 0.3% on average each year. Public administration
Employment is expected to decline Transportation and storage Slow relative Fast relative
by 0.4% each year as job losses in the to UK excl. to UK excl.
Arts, entertainment and recreation
London London
region’s manufacturing sector hinder Education
overall employment growth. Human health and social work
Manufacturing
Construction
Administrative and support service
Information and communication
The North East will be Professional, scientific and technical
among the weakest Real estate activities
performing regions over -0.7 -0.2 0.3
the period 2020-23 Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
2 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 3ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
2 3
North West Yorkshire and the Humber
• The latest survey data from the PMI Employment structure: North West vs UK (excl. London), 2019 • The latest PMI data shows that growth Employment structure: Yorkshire and the Humber vs UK
suggests that the North West’s economy in Yorkshire and the Humber’s economy (excl. London), 2019
Wholesale and retail trade
continued to grow in October 2020, slowed in October 2020 however, the Manufacturing
Professional, scientific and technical
although the rate of growth has started region still experienced growth above Education
Transportation and storage
to slow. UK average. Transportation and storage
Administrative and support service
• Recent labour market data has been • Recent employment data has been Administrative and support service
Manufacturing
relatively weak. Total workforce jobs in positive for Yorkshire and the Humber. Financial and insurance activities
Other service activities
the North West fell by 1.5% over the year Workforce jobs reports a 0.9% rise Accommodation and food service
Real estate activities Small relative Large relative
to June 2020, more than twice the rate in the 12 months to June 2020, the Public administration Small relative Large relative
to UK excl. to UK excl.
Financial and insurance activities to UK excl. to UK excl.
of contraction reported across the UK. London London strongest performance observed across Information and communication
Human health and social work London London
The more timely LFS indicates further the regions. The more timely LFS data Arts, entertainment and recreation
decline in the quarter to September Accommodation and food service records that employment also grew Real estate activities
2020 compared with the previous year, Public administration in the quarter to September 2020 Human health and social work
with employment declining by 6,000, Arts, entertainment and recreation compared with a year previous, Wholesale and retail trade
coinciding with a 0.4 percentage point Education rising by an additional 0.5%. Despite Other service activities
rise in the unemployment rate to 5.9% of Construction increasing employment, a rise in the Utilities, extraction and agriculture
the population aged 16 and above. Information and communication unemployment rate was also recorded Professional, scientific and technical
• Despite the poor performance of the Utilities, extraction and agriculture over the same period. Construction
labour market, house price growth in the -0.9 -0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 • The region’s strong employment -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9
North West has been among the highest Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference performance helped to support house Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
across the UK regions in the 12 months prices, with prices increasing by 2.7%
to August 2020, rising by 3.5% compared in the 12 months to August 2020 and
to 2.5% nationally. GVA growth: North West vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 outpacing the UK (2.5%). GVA growth: Yorkshire and the Humber vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23
• Our GVA and employment growth Real estate activities • GVA growth in Yorkshire and the Information and communication
forecasts for the North West match the Professional, scientific and technical Humber is forecast to lag the UK Financial and insurance activities
UK over the 2020-23 period, growing at Administrative and support service between 2020 and 2023, contracting Public administration
an average of 0.1% and -0.1% per year Construction by 0.2% annually compared with 0.1% Human health and social work
respectively. The professional, scientific Accommodation and food service average growth nationally. Despite Accommodation and food service
and technical and wholesale and retail Wholesale and retail trade the overall contraction, human health Education
sectors will be the most dynamic in the Manufacturing Slow relative Fast relative and social work and information and Wholesale and retail trade Slow relative Fast relative
region — the latter benefitting in the to UK excl. to UK excl. communication are forecast to be the to UK excl. to UK excl.
Transportation and storage Manufacturing
London London London London
near-term from pent-up demand. Arts, entertainment and recreation most dynamic over this period. Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities Transportation and storage
Utilities, extraction and agriculture Utilities, extraction and agriculture
Public administration Other service activities
Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities
Human health and social work Administrative and support service
Total workforce jobs in Education
Recent employment Construction
the North West fell by Information and communication data has been Professional, scientific and technical
1.5% over the year to -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 positive for Yorkshire -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
June 2020 Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference and the Humber Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
4 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 5ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
4 5
East Midlands West Midlands
• Following record growth in September Employment structure: East Midlands vs UK (excl. London), 2019 • The latest survey evidence from the Employment structure: West Midlands vs UK (excl. London), 2019
2020, output growth in the East PMI shows that output growth in the
Manufacturing Manufacturing
Midlands slowed significantly in October West Midlands has begun to slow, with
Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage
according to the latest PMI data. growth falling below the UK average in
Other service activities Wholesale and retail trade
• The latest labour market data has been October 2020.
Transportation and storage Real estate activities
relatively weak for the East Midlands. • The latest labour market data is also
Arts, entertainment and recreation Education
Whilst total workforce jobs remained less favourable. Workforce jobs fell
Education Other service activities
broadly flat in in the 12 months to June by 2.5% in the year to June 2020,
Utilities, extraction and agriculture Small relative Large relative Construction Small relative Large relative
2020, the more timely LFS suggests a to UK excl. to UK excl. the joint largest regional contraction to UK excl. to UK excl.
weakening picture for the region, with a Administrative and support service reported alongside the South East. The Financial and insurance activities
London London London London
1.8% contraction reported in the quarter Real estate activities more timely LFS supports this story of Human health and social work
to September 2020 compared with a Information and communication weak performance, with a contraction Administrative and support service
year earlier. This was accompanied by a Construction of 1.4% in the quarter to September Utilities, extraction and agriculture
rise in the unemployment rate to 4.9% of Accommodation and food service 2020 compared with a year earlier. Information and communication
the population aged 16 and above. Human health and social work Over the same period, unemployment Arts, entertainment and recreation
• House prices in the East Midlands Public administration rose by 24,000, bringing the Professional, scientific and technical
reported the fastest rate of growth in the Financial and insurance activities unemployment rate up to 4.9% of Public administration
12 months to August 2020, rising by Professional, scientific and technical the population aged 16 and above, Accommodation and food service
-1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5
3.6% and outpacing the UK (2.5%). marginally above the UK (4.8%). -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5
• GVA in the East Midlands is expected Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference • While house prices in the West Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
to remain broadly flat over the next Midlands rose in the year to August
four years, lagging marginally behind 2020, their pace of growth (2.3%)
GVA growth: East Midlands vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 GVA growth: West Midlands vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23
the 0.1% growth forecast nationally. lagged marginally behind that of the
The outlook for employment is slightly Transportation and storage UK (2.5%). Utilities, extraction and agriculture
weaker, with a 0.1% contraction Real estate activities • The GVA outlook for the West Midlands Manufacturing
expected, in line with the UK. Job losses Construction is among the weakest across the UK, Transportation and storage
in the region’s sizeable manufacturing Information and communication with a 0.3% contraction expected Public administration
sector will offset growth in other sectors. Human health and social work between 2020 and 2023. The region’s Other service activities
Public administration high reliance on manufacturing leaves Human health and social work
Education Slow relative Fast relative its economy particularly exposed to Financial and insurance activities Slow relative Fast relative
to UK excl. to UK excl. Brexit related trade frictions. to UK excl. to UK excl.
Administrative and support service Education
London London London London
Arts, entertainment and recreation Wholesale and retail trade
Professional, scientific and technical Arts, entertainment and recreation
Accommodation and food service Accommodation and food service
Financial and insurance activities Information and communication
Wholesale and retail trade Professional, scientific and technical
GVA in the East Midlands Other service activities The GVA outlook for Administrative and support service
Manufacturing Construction
is expected to remain Utilities, extraction and agriculture
the West Midlands is Real estate activities
broadly flat over the -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5
among the weakest -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3
next four years Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference across the UK Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
6 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 7ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
6 7
East of England South East
• The East of England experienced the Employment structure: East of England vs UK (excl. London), 2019 • Despite growth slowing marginally Employment structure: South East vs UK (excl. London), 2019
second fastest increase in economic between September and October, the
Professional, scientific and technical Information and communication
activity in September 2020 according South East experienced the strongest
Administrative and support service Professional, scientific and technical
to the latest PMI survey results. growth in economic activity in October
Transportation and storage Administrative and support service
• However, the latest labour market data 2020 according to the latest PMI.
Construction Education
for the region suggests weakening • The latest labour market data has
Education Construction
conditions. Over the year to June been particularly weak. Workforce jobs
Real estate activities Arts, entertainment and recreation
2020, workforce jobs contracted by contracted by 2.6% over the year to
Information and communication Small relative Large relative Wholesale and retail trade
0.8%, equating to around 25,000 job to UK excl. to UK excl. June 2020, the weakest regional Small relative Large relative
losses. Furthermore the more timely Utilities, extraction and agriculture performance alongside the West Financial and insurance activities
London London to UK excl. to UK excl.
LFS data reports a 0.6% decline over Financial and insurance activities Midlands. The more recent LFS data Other service activities London London
the quarter to September 2020 against Arts, entertainment and recreation shows a 1.5% contraction in the quarter Real estate activities
a year pervious. This contraction in Wholesale and retail trade to September 2020 compared with Transportation and storage
employment was accompanied by Other service activities a year previous, almost twice the Accommodation and food service
a 1.1 percentage point rise in the Accommodation and food service rate of decline reported nationally. Utilities, extraction and agriculture
unemployment rate to 4.3% of the Public administration The unemployment rate has risen 1 Public administration
population aged 16 and above. Manufacturing percentage point over this period but Human health and social work
• House prices in the East of England Human health and social work one remains one of the lowest at 4.1% of Manufacturing
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
have grown by 2.0% over the year the population aged 16 and above. -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
to August 2020, lagging marginally Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference • Despite the poor performance of the Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
behind that of the UK (2.5%). labour market, house prices have
• Employment and output in the East risen 2.9% in the year to August 2020,
GVA growth: East of England vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 GVA growth: South East vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23
of England are forecast to mirror the outpacing national growth (2.5%).
national average over the next four Human health and social work • Growth within the South East is forecast Real estate activities
years. GVA is expected to expand at Utilities, extraction and agriculture to outpace the national average. Wholesale and retail trade
an average annual rate of 0.1%, whilst Public administration Employment in the region is forecast Accommodation and food service
employment is forecast to contract by Arts, entertainment and recreation to expand by an annual average of Other service activities
0.1% per year. Education 0.1% between 2020 and 2023. Solid Arts, entertainment and recreation
Wholesale and retail trade performances in the information and Construction
Accommodation and food service Slow relative Fast relative communications and professional Administrative and support service
to UK excl. to UK excl. sectors are expected to support GVA Fast relative
Information and communication Human health and social work
London London to UK excl.
Financial and insurance activities growth of 0.4% per year. Professional, scientific and technical
London
Manufacturing Education
The East of England Other service activities Information and communication
experienced the second Professional, scientific and technical Manufacturing
fastest increase in Transportation and storage Financial and insurance activities
Construction Utilities, extraction and agriculture
economic activity Administrative and support service
Growth within the Transportation and storage
in September 2020 Real estate activities South East is forecast Public administration
according to the latest -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 to outpace the 0.0 0.2 0.4
PMI survey results Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference national average Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
8 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 9ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
8 9
South West London
• The latest PMI shows that following Employment structure: South West vs UK (excl. London), 2019 • According to the PMI, London followed a Employment structure: London vs UK (excl. London), 2019
three months of growth, economic similar trend to the UK as a whole, with
Accommodation and food service Professional, scientific and technical
activity in the South West declined three months of solid output growth
Construction Information and communication
marginally in October 2020. from July to September 2020 followed
Public administration Financial and insurance activities
• Recent labour market data has also by a slowdown in October 2020.
Arts, entertainment and recreation Administrative and support service
been weak. Workforce jobs in the South • The latest labour market data was
Human health and social work Real estate activities
West fell by 0.8% in the 12 months mixed. Workforce jobs in London
Utilities, extraction and agriculture Accommodation and food service
to June 2020. The more timelier rose by over 13,000 over the year
Real estate activities Small relative Large relative Arts, entertainment and recreation Small relative Large relative
LFS data shows a 4.0% contraction to UK excl. to UK excl. to June 2020, equating to a 0.2% to UK excl. to UK excl.
in total employment in the quarter to Professional, scientific and technical rise against a backdrop of a 0.7% Other service activities
London London London London
September 2020 compared with a year Other service activities decline nationally. The LFS shows a Public administration
previous. This is the largest regional Financial and insurance activities 2.0% increase in employment for the Transportation and storage
contraction reported. Similarly the Information and communication quarter to September 2020 compared Education
unemployment rate experienced the Education with a year previous — the highest Construction
largest regional increase over this Manufacturing percentage increase across all regions. Utilities, extraction and agriculture
period, rising from 2.6% to 4.1% of the Wholesale and retail trade The unemployment rate rose by 1.4 Human health and social work
population aged 16 and above. Transportation and storage percentage points to 6.0% of the Wholesale and retail trade
• Despite the weak labour market, house Administrative and support service population aged 16 and above, the Manufacturing
prices have risen 2.5% in the year to -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 second highest regional change. -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
August 2020, matching the national Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference • London’s house prices increased by Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
rate of growth. 3.5% in the year to August 2020,
• GVA and employment growth in the placing the region as one of the
GVA growth: South West vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23 GVA growth: London vs UK (excl. London), 2020-23
region is forecast to lag behind the strongest across the UK.
UK average over the next four years. Transportation and storage • London is expected to remain the Other service activities
Output in the South West is forecast Human health and social work fastest growing region in the UK in Wholesale and retail trade
to contract at an average annual rate Financial and insurance activities terms of both GVA and employment. Utilities, extraction and agriculture
of 0.2%, while employment is forecast Public administration Employment in the region is forecast to Accommodation and food service
to fall by 0.4% per year. The region’s Education increase at an average annual rate of Education
hospitality sector acts as a significant Utilities, extraction and agriculture 0.3% over the next four years, with GVA Administrative and support service
drag on growth, particularly in the Professional, scientific and technical Slow relative Fast relative forecast to grow by 0.5% per year over Public administration Slow relative Fast relative
near-term. to UK excl. to UK excl. the same period. to UK excl. to UK excl.
Administrative and support service Information and communication
London London London London
Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical
Information and communication Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities Human health and social work
Despite the weak labour Construction Financial and insurance activities
market, house prices Accommodation and food service
London is expected Real estate activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation Construction
have risen 2.5% in the Wholesale and retail trade to remain the fastest Transportation and storage
year to August 2020, Manufacturing growing region in the UK Manufacturing
matching the national -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3
in terms of both GVA and -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6
rate of growth Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference employment Source: EY ITEM Club Percentage point difference
10 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 11ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Contact us Notes on data and
forecast assumptions
The forecasts presented in this report are Key data definitions used
produced using the Oxford Economics Local in this report:
Authority District Forecasting Model, but are
fully consistent with the EY ITEM Club Interim • Total employment is jobs-based,
Forecast (November 2020). including employees in employment,
self-employed, Her Majesty’s Forces and
government-supported trainees;
The forecasts depend essentially upon • GVA data is presented in 2018 prices
three factors: and excludes output from the ‘extra
• National outlooks. region’; i.e., the contribution of
Stephen Church Suzanne Robinson Michael Scoular Simon O’Neill North Sea oil and gas extraction, UK
North West Yorkshire and Humberside North East Midlands • Historical trends in an area augmented
by local knowledge and understanding of embassies, and UK forces stationed
Senior Partner Senior Partner Senior Partner Senior Partner overseas. The latter are included in
patterns of economic development, built up
over decades of expertise. the GDP definition used in the EY
schurch1@uk.ey.com srobinson@uk.ey.com mscoular@uk.ey.com soneill@uk.ey.com macroeconomic forecasts.
• Fundamental economic relationships which
interlink the various elements of the outlook. • Labour force unemployment is the
official unemployment measure,
The forecasts are demand-based, and assume referring to jobless people who want
no supply-side constants. They also assume the to work, are available to work and are
continuation of existing government policies, actively seeking work.
and those currently announced. While the UK • Any reference to workforce jobs in the
Government does not have a specific regional regional focus slides relates to employee
policy, some enterprise support is allocated jobs rather than total workforce jobs,
locally, and infrastructure decisions clearly given the volatility of the regional self-
have regional implications. The devolved employment data.
administrations have their own responsibilities • The forecast period 2020-23 is a four
in these areas, which causes some differences in year forecast, including growth in 2020,
policies and priorities. 2021, 2022 and 2023.
Richard Baker Andrew Perkins Caroline Artis • The analysis in this report is based on
Thames Valley and South West London published data available on or before
South Coast Senior Partner Senior Partner Senior Partner 19 November 2020.
rbaker2@uk.ey.com aperkins@uk.ey.com cartis@uk.ey.com
12 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 13ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
Definitions
Newcastle Newcastle upon Tyne LA Bristol Bristol LA Wigan LA Torbay Torbay LA
Liverpool Liverpool LA Exeter Exeter LA Salford LA Windsor and
Manchester Manchester LA Sheffield City Region Trafford LA Maidenhead Windsor and Maidenhead LA
Kingston upon Hull Kingston upon Hull UA Combined Authority Barnsley LA Hartlepool Hartlepool LA Slough Slough LA
Leeds Leeds LA Bassetlaw LA Stockton-on-Tees Stockton-on-Tees LA Basingstoke
Bolsover LA and Deane Basingstoke and Deane LA
Birmingham Birmingham LA Darlington Darlington LA
Chesterfield LA Boston Boston LA
Stoke-on-Trent Stoke on Trent UA Durham CC Durham CC LA
Derbyshire Dales LA Mansfield Mansfield LA
Cambridge Cambridge LA Sunderland Sunderland LA
Doncaster LA Worcester Worcester LA
Luton Luton LA Blackburn
North East Derbyshire LA with Darwen Blackburn with Darwen LA Lichfield Lichfield LA
Reading Reading UA
Rotherham LA Blackpool Blackpool LA Rugby Rugby LA
Southampton Southampton UA
Sheffield LA Lancaster Lancaster LA Redditch Redditch LA
South Coast Bournemouth UA
Portsmouth Portsmouth UA Chorley Chorley LA Wigan Wigan LA
Poole UA
Oxford Oxford LA Warrington Warrington LA Preston Preston LA
Test Valley LA
Liverpool City Region Kingston upon Hull, Rochdale Rochdale LA
Southampton UA
Combined Authority Halton LA City of Kingston upon Hull, City of LA Carlisle Carlisle LA
New Forest LA
Knowsley LA York York LA Barnsley Barnsley LA
Eastleigh LA
Liverpool LA Sheffield Sheffield LA Doncaster Doncaster LA
Winchester LA
Sefton LA Bradford Bradford LA Harrogate Harrogate LA
Fareham LA
St Helens LA Wakefield Wakefield LA Rotherham Rotherham LA
Gosport LA
Wirral LA Derby Derby LA Guildford Guildford LA
East Hampshire LA
Milton Keynes Milton Keynes UA Nottingham Nottingham LA Winchester Winchester LA
Havant LA
Sunderland Sunderland LA Leicester Leicester LA Taunton Deane Taunton Deane LA
Portsmouth UA
West Midlands Telford and Wrekin Telford and Wrekin LA Stroud Stroud LA
Isle of Wight UA
Combined Authority Birmingham LA Solihull Solihull LA Middlesbrough Middlesbrough LA
Thames Valley West Berkshire UA
Coventry LA Coventry Coventry LA Norwich Norwich LA
Reading UA
Dudley LA Dudley Dudley LA
Windsor and Maidenhead UA
Sandwell LA Sandwell Sandwell LA
Wokingham UA
Solihull LA Walsall Walsall LA
Slough UA
Walsall LA Wolverhampton Wolverhampton LA
Bracknell Forest UA
Wolverhampton LA Peterborough Peterborough LA
Basingstoke and Deane LA
Greater Manchester Manchester LA Bedford Bedford LA
Hart LA
Stockport LA Southend-on-Sea Southend-on-Sea LA
Rushmoor LA
Tameside LA Brighton and Hove Brighton and Hove LA
Cherwell LA
Oldham LA Swindon Swindon LA
West Oxfordshire LA UA = Unitary Authority
Rochdale LA Bournemouth Bournemouth LA
Oxford LA LA = Local Authority District
Bury LA Poole Poole LA
Vale of White Horse LA CA = Council Area
Bolton LA Plymouth Plymouth LA
South Oxfordshire LA
14 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 UK Regional Economic Forecast — December 2020 15EY | Building a better working world EY exists to build a better working world, helping to create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets. Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate. Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. Ernst & Young LLP The UK firm Ernst & Young LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC300001 and is a member firm of Ernst & Young Global Limited. Ernst & Young LLP, 1 More London Place, London, SE1 2AF. © 2020 Ernst & Young LLP. Published in the UK. All Rights Reserved. EYSCORE 008715-20-UK EY Cities and Regions Outlook Autumn 2020 (Supplement).indd (UK) 12/20. Artwork by JDJ Creative Ltd. ED None In line with EY’s commitment to minimise its impact on the environment, this document has been printed on paper with a high recycled content. Information in this publication is intended to provide only a general outline of the subjects covered. It should neither be regarded as comprehensive or sufficient for making decisions, nor should it be used in place of professional advice. Ernst & Young LLP accepts no responsibility for any loss arising from any action taken or not taken by anyone using this material. ey.com/uk/regionalforecast
You can also read
