The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice

Page created by Jerry Anderson
 
CONTINUE READING
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
africapractice

The African year in

                                                                                                                                  January 2018

        africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                    africapractice

Managing the pace of change
The stability of African governments is increasingly                     In South Africa, we anticipate that Ramaphosa will work
defined by their ability to manage the pace of social and                with allies to outmanoeuvre President Jacob Zuma and
political change. Africa’s burgeoning youth populations                  remove him from office in a process that will leave the                       “Africa is getting to the tipping
are flocking to the cities, embracing new forms of                       party bruised and battered. This will potentially pave                          point where the people will
communications and media, and vocally demanding                          the way for further judicial processes targeting Zuma.
greater accountability from their governments. Young                     Thereafter, the ANC’s new leader is likely to make robust                    determine who governs them. A
and aspirational societies are above all anxious for jobs,
but they also expect better public services and more
                                                                         cabinet selections to reassure the capital markets,
                                                                         step back from some of President Jacob Zuma’s more
                                                                                                                                                       club of elite will no longer have
evident social justice. This tide of expectation from                    controversial recent populist policy interventions, and                     the power to dictate what happens
the grassroots makes change inevitable. But while                        importantly, push for investigations into some of the
governments cannot stop it, they can still shape the                     alleged graft which has rocked South African politics in                             on the continent”
pace and direction of change.                                            recent years. This will not be an easy task, such is the
In The African Year in 2017, we talked about the notion                  divided nature of his party and the fragile state of the                                         Oby Ezekwesili
of a divergent continent in which reform-minded                          economy. But he will look to assert his authority and
governments with the political will to deliver on their                  strike a note of change, while upholding aspects of the
development strategy would oversee robust growth,                        ANC’s radical economic transformation agenda, which
                                                                                                                                                      Oby Ezekwesili
while those that resorted to window-dressing efforts                     remains so critical to South Africa’s long-term socio-
at reform while clinging to power through a reliance                     economic rebalancing post-apartheid.
on patronage would bumble along in a dysfunctional                       Lourenço is also making waves in Angola as he seeks
status quo – or worse still, face overthrow or electoral                 to assert his authority over the state apparatus and
defeat. In 2018, we anticipate more bumps in the                         dilute the lingering influence of the dos Santos family,
road for African leaders who fail to respond to the                      who have dominated Angolan politics for the last three
clamouring of their young populations. But we also see                   decades. From his new position of growing strength, we
the emergence of a new generation of leadership which                    anticipate that Lourenço’s reforms will move beyond
has grown savvier to these risks, and more responsive                    personnel changes to actually tackle some of the
as a result.                                                             monopolies that thrive in Angola’s heavily politicised
The new administrations of Cyril Ramaphosa in South                      business landscape. It remains to be seen however,
Africa, João Lourenço in Angola, and Emmerson                            whether such actions constitute part of a coherent
Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe, while facing notable political                    development agenda, or whether they are simply a
and economic challenges, will all strike a more reformist                means of wresting control of key patronage structures
and accountable tone than their predecessors.                            from the past administration.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                     02
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                         africapractice

In those countries where leaders have sought to push
back and resist the forces of change, political risks will
increase, as was evidenced recently in Zimbabwe (see                                                                                                 “The problem of Africa in general
Five markets to watch in 2018). In perhaps the most
prominent example of this dynamic, President Joseph                                                                                                   and Uganda in particular is not
Kabila’s dance around the international community in
the DRC will continue to fuel a political and security
                                                                                                                                                      the people but leaders who want
crisis in 2018 that carries risks of escalation. Kabila will                                                                                                to overstay in power.”
continue to play to the gallery on his commitment to
elections, but we see this as a means to drag his heels
as he remains in power. This dynamic will continue to                                                                                                     Yoweri Museveni in 1986,
foment unrest and violence as the country limps along                                                                                                    shortly before he took power
its transitional route. The impact on the mining sector
will be limited in relatively stable regions like Katanga,
whereas companies operating in the volatile Kivus and
Kasai region will see greater risks. But while the political
                                                                                                                                                    Lastly, Ethiopia is an interesting example of a country
crisis may distract from some of the more aggressive                       Yoweri Museveni                                                          where the forces of grassroots mobilisation are
policy initiatives being considered by the Kabila
                                                                                                                                                    creating upwards pressure on the ruling system. Since
administration, we anticipate substantial license and
                                                                                                                                                    the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012,
policy review in the coming years as the government                      remain in power in 2018, but his lack of succession
                                                                                                                                                    the country has been transitioning from its heavily
seeks to reap greater rewards from its prized copper,                    planning will exacerbate structural risks in the event of
                                                                                                                                                    centralised leadership. Formal mechanisms for grass-
cobalt and coltan reserves.                                              his death. The status quo in Cameroon therefore looks
                                                                                                                                                    roots participation with political leaders are weak and
                                                                         increasingly untenable.
In Cameroon, President Paul Biya retains a tight grip                                                                                               it is notable that social media has become a powerful
over his party but not over his country, with the military               Although Yoweri Museveni has recently taken a similar                      tool for political debate and mobilisation in the country,
struggling to contain both Boko Haram infiltration in the                course of action to Biya in amending the constitution                      signalling a growing trend that political actors across the
Far North, and growing restiveness in the Anglophone                     to ensure he can stand once again for election in                          continent are struggling to respond to. Recent cycles
regions. With little sign that the President will seek to                Uganda in 2021, this year is unlikely to mark such a                       of protest in the ethnic-Oromo and -Amhara regions
manage a dos Santos-style succession, an anticipated                     critical juncture for the country. Museveni’s calculated                   of the country reflect a deep dissatisfaction amongst
bid to stand for re-election in October 2018 may inflame                 move was certainly controversial, and he will face                         the youth of the country who are frustrated by social
geopolitical rivalries in his own party and produce a                    strident criticism from the opposition for his autocratic                  hardships and the perceived political marginalisation
more volatile political landscape as the ageing President                tendencies. But his grip on the political and military                     of key constituencies (the Oromo and Amhara make up
clings on to power without managing a clear plan for                     apparatus is such that for now at least, he is reasonably                  almost two-thirds of the population but are politically
his aftermath. Biya still represents a firm favourite to                 secure in his position.                                                    less powerful than the minority Tigray).

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                           03
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                     africapractice

    Year they
    assumed
       office

                                                     Liberia      Gambia                              Angola                                          Zimbabwe
                                                                                         Burkina                                    Ghana
                                                                                 Tanzania faso
                                                                         Mozambique              Zambia
                                                                                                                                        Nigeria
                                                                              Kenya           CAR                                                       Namibia
                                                      Ethiopia                      Madagascar Guinea Bissau                             Mali
                                                                                 Senegal                     South Sudan
                                                                                                                                                Cote d'Ivoire
                                                                                                               Niger                                              Guinea
          2010                                                        Somalia
                                                                                         Gabon                Botswana                           South Africa
                                                                           Burundi                            Sierra Leone

                                                               Togo

                                               DRC
          2000                                                                                   Rwanda
                                                                                                                                      Djibouti

                                                                                                                                     Rep. of Congo

                                                                                                                                      Eritrea
          1990                                                                                                    Chad
                                                                                                                                         Sudan

                                                                                                                                             Uganda

                                    African leaders                                                                                                                        Cameroun
          1980
                                                                                                                                                     Equatorial Guinea

                         40                              50                                 60                                 70                                 80                  AGE

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                      04
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                                  africapractice

In response to this tide of pressure, the ruling EPRDF has taken steps to respond, reshuffling the cabinet to                                            Fig: Total public debt as a percentage of GDP (IMF)
replace controversial party stalwarts with younger or more technocratic figures, releasing selected political
prisoners, and opening political dialogues to give more political power to regional administrations. Behind
these moves, we are witnessing a generational power-struggle within the ruling party, which is seeing younger
figures rise to prominence to provide some form of representation for the restive youth. Yet while robust
economic growth provides a degree of legitimacy to the government under its state-led development strategy,
the pace of political change remains slow, and some would argue that the measures taken are superficial
at best. As such, the new status quo in Ethiopia will likely see more bouts of unrest met by a forceful
government response as the authorities make fitful progress in responding to the frustrations of its young and                                           2013
aspirational population.

Between populism and pragmatism
Linked to this same demographic pressure for reform                   After a swathe of debt write-offs in the 2000s with
and progress, governments are having to make                          the launch of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
tough decisions on how they run their economies,                      Initiative (HIPC) in 1996, African debt is again on
make policy and fund their development plans. With                    the rise, with many governments using commercial
commodity prices still somewhat subdued, donor                        and concessional borrowing to plug persistent fiscal
streams proving unreliable, and China taking a more                   and budgetary gaps. As a positive note, unlike in
cautious approach to the continent, in the last two-                  previous debt cycles, much of the focus of recent
to-three years African governments have been forced                   borrowing has been to fund capital spending on
to place a greater focus on economic diversification,                 infrastructure and developmental projects. However,
debt-raising, fiscal reform, and efforts to broaden                   many governments have also proven either reluctant
the tax base. Such reforms are much-needed to                         or unable to trim the public wage bill, cut back on
strengthen the macro-economic sustainability of                       subsidies and reduce wastage in the system by                                      2016
many countries. But they also carry structural risks,                 pioneering robust public-sector reform. This has
and notable opportunities and risks for business,                     proven evident in the challenging IMF negotiations
which need to be carefully evaluated.                                 around concessional reforms to enable extended
With regards to structural risk, IMF chief Christine                  credit facilities in countries like Ghana, Guinea and
Lagarde in December 2017 sounded the warning                          Zambia. The IMF is still smarting from its experiences                                   Less than 35%
bell over resurgent public debt levels in Africa, with                with the concealed debt in Mozambique and we                                             Between 35 and 50%
external debt in particular vulnerable to foreign                     anticipate more stringent requirements around                                            Greater than 50%
currency appreciation noting the likelihood of further                concessional lending, with greater disclosure as a
interest hikes in the US and Euro-area this year.                     centrepiece.                                                                                             Source IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       05
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                   africapractice

                                                                                                              ring-fenced industrial parks like the export-oriented manufacturing hubs being
                                                                                                              developed in Ethiopia. Such moves are unlocking significant potential for both
                                                                                                              companies and government, with an aligned benefit from wealth and jobs creation,
                                                                                                              and increased fiscal contributions.
                                                                                                              Yet in other areas, fiscal reforms and efforts to broaden the tax base come with
                                                                                                              risks for business. Internal revenue generation in Africa is lamentably low due to a
                                                                                                              combination of poor checks and systems, high levels of informality in the economy,
                                                                                                              low tax rates, and corruption. The drive to address this issue forms an important
                                                                                                              step to build more sustainable economies. Yet while improving tax collection systems
                                                                                                              and broadening the tax base to capture untaxed areas is likely to be a positive move,
                                                                                                              we are also likely to see a struggle play out between the need for pragmatic fiscal
                                                                                                              management and the desire to secure easy populist wins which carry political capital.
                                                                                                              In particular, where tax authorities target the low-hanging fruit of existing tax payers
                                                                                                              to drive up tax collection, this is likely to carry risks to business and in some instances,
                                                                                                              have a detrimental effect on economic activity.
                                                                                                              In 2018, we are likely to see hikes in excise taxes on consumer goods that are seen
                                                                                                              to carry health and environmental impact – notably drinks, plastics and tobacco
   Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
                                                                                                              products – and the telecoms sector will also face similar pressures as a perceived
                                                                                                              cash-cow for government. While environmental and health issues will be used as
While 2018 is unlikely to be the year when the tide turns on African debt, we expect                          the rationale, often the real driver of fiscal change will be short-term revenue-raising
this issue to come increasingly into focus with several bond issuances nearing                                requirements. And while the foot has been taken off the pedal in terms of resource
maturity, and the long-term sustainability of debt in countries like Kenya, Zambia and                        nationalism in the extractives sector after a wave of fiscal and regulatory reform in
even Ethiopia being called into question. Fortunately, African governments appear                             the last decade, tax and regulatory enforcement – including stringent sanctions for
more engaged with the IMF and other lenders than they were during the stubborn                                non-compliance – is likely to remain a feature for this strategic sector, where local
debt crises of the 1980s. But public-sector reforms will prove a bitter pill to swallow,                      content and beneficiation will be the primary government focus.
and with governments under pressure to maintain spending and preserve jobs, the
                                                                                                              Businesses will need to be alert to these risks, which can originate domestically or
debt mountain is more likely to swell than deflate. This issue could well come back to
                                                                                                              result from contagion stemming from ‘influencer markets’ like South Africa, Nigeria
bite, and donors are unlikely to countenance a second bailout along the lines of HIPC,
                                                                                                              and Kenya, which can carry significant regional influence. While the risk of contagion
underlining the long-term structural risks this presents if spending is not contained.
                                                                                                              from the more radical forms of policy that has been pursued in recent years in countries
On the other hand, the move towards economic diversification – particularly in                                like Zimbabwe or even Tanzania is limited by the realities of the political-economy in
resource dependent economies – presents huge opportunities to business. These                                 other markets, tax and regulatory pressures are likely to become a growing challenge
range from reforms and incentives to open untapped or under-productive sectors                                for business, requiring robust and proactive engagement to manage the impact on
like mining and agriculture in Nigeria, to the launch of special economic zones or                            operations and the bottom line.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                      06
The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                         africapractice

The shifting sands of international engagement with Africa
In The African Year in 2017, we noted the uncertainties                  we are seeing engineering and construction firms in                        the days of unrestricted support are certainly over. Even
in international policy and engagement with Africa                       particular pushing new boundaries in their pursuit of                      on its favourable loan-terms, China has been burnt by a
prompted by Trump’s victory in the US elections and                      opportunities in Africa.                                                   number of disputes in Chad, Zimbabwe and Angola to
the ongoing Brexit negotiations in Europe. As we                                                                                                    name but a few. These typically range from non-payment
                                                                         The UK has been locked in tough internal challenges
anticipated, Africa has not featured highly on the                                                                                                  issues to commercial disputes affecting its firms. Such
                                                                         stemming from its planned exit from the EU, but
priority list for the new US President. And while the US’s                                                                                          experiences have drawn a more selective approach
                                                                         a key pillar of this approach is likely to see a trade
financial clout will mean that it remains a prominent                                                                                               to the continent from China, and a greater focus on
                                                                         and investment drive with non-European partners,
player on the continent, we anticipate that its influence                                                                                           political risks and financial returns when channelling
in Africa will be in stasis for the remainder of Trump’s                 including Africa. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s
                                                                         recent announcement that UK aid should be more                             funds into Africa. Japan meanwhile, will continue to
term, which will become increasingly bogged down in                                                                                                 push for more Japanese investment, but the risk averse
domestic infighting and diplomatic gaffes.                               explicitly tied to UK interests, likely signalling a greater
                                                                         alignment of spending on programmes that promote                           and cautious approach of Japanese companies may see
Other countries are set to adopt new approaches                          security, trade and reduced migration to Europe. In                        them struggle to compete effectively on a fast-moving
to the continent. European nations in particular                         particular, the UK government remains a key partner                        continent. Nevertheless, where Japanese capital is
are reviving their interest in Africa, notably from a                    to many African governments and will increasingly                          brought to bear, it is likely to deliver robust results in
migration, security and commercial perspective. And                      seek to use its positive diplomatic relations across                       the long term.
we see progressive leaders like Emmanuel Macron                          many parts of the continent to drive a more vibrant
in France and Angela Merkel in Germany, espousing                                                                                                   Other rising Asian economies like India, Malaysia,
                                                                         narrative around commercial opportunities for the                          South Korea and Singapore will also grow their
new narratives for engagement with the continent,                        UK private sector, supporting a post-Brexit strategy of
while urging their respective businesses to seek out                                                                                                footprint on the continent, particularly in infrastructure,
                                                                         diversified trade and investment. This will be evident in                  industrials and consumer goods. Their geographic
opportunities on the continent. France continues to
                                                                         the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in                            footprint will be more limited, but where these
endeavour to break with the image of its neo-colonial
                                                                         London in April, when the Commonwealth’s business                          countries are targeting their investments in markets
approach to influencing outcomes in its former colonies
                                                                         forum will likely provide a key focus.                                     as diverse as Kenya, Nigeria, Gabon, Sudan, Mauritius,
by forging more equitable partnerships, while Germany
is focusing its energies on immigration and security, with               Asia has not lost its appetite for Africa, but China’s                     Angola and South Africa, they will be forces to contend
its development agency GIZ playing a key role in this                    approach to the continent has become notably more                          with, bringing with them an alignment of experience
respect. German companies have historically adopted a                    cautious. China continues to be a major player in                          as nations which have made remarkable strides in
risk averse approach to the continent, but even there,                   funding and delivering infrastructure across Africa but                    development in recent decades.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                            07
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                        africapractice

Walking the tightrope of reputational risk
Recent corporate scandals ranging from the Gupta
debacle in South Africa or the more recent Steinhoff
controversies, to the current investigations into
Glencore in the DRC, and Shell and ENI in Nigeria,
have brought reputational risks back into the spotlight
once again. As a frontier market for investment, Africa
carries notable integrity and reputational risks that
must be effectively managed if companies are to thrive
in the continent’s complex and at times challenging
operational environment.
In today’s globalised society, issues that may once have
appeared locally-focused can swiftly escalate to become
global headaches for corporate boards and compliance
teams. The Gupta scandal in particular has carried                       into a web of investigations and recriminations that has                   Some might argue that South Africa, with its vibrant
clear lessons for the private sector. It brought about                   hurt their business in South Africa but caused wider                       media and civil-society, and robust judiciary, represents
the collapse of the public affairs agency Bell Pottinger                 ramifications at corporate HQ.                                             a higher risk of corporate exposure than other parts of
and has dragged global names like McKinsey and KPMG                      In an environment in which there is increased domestic                     the continent where scrutiny is less apparent. But playing
                                                                         and international scrutiny of corporate activity, and                      politics and engaging in corrupt activities is becoming
                                                                         a growing tide of political change on the continent,                       an increasingly high-stakes game wherever you are in
 “It takes twenty years to build a                                       companies that fail to establish and enforce rigorous
                                                                         compliance and ethics checks will find themselves
                                                                                                                                                    the world. In the African context, political change will
                                                                                                                                                    frequently bring with it scrutiny of past administrations’
  reputation and five minutes to                                         increasingly exposed. It is no longer considered                           actions and agreements, while international anti-
                                                                         acceptable to claim ignorance to ongoings in remote                        corruption and bribery authorities have demonstrated
 ruin it. If you think about that,                                       office hubs; corporate accountability for policies,                        a growing willingness to call companies to account, no
   you’ll do things differently”                                         procedures and strategic decisions being made across                       matter where they are operating. As such, from mining
                                                                                                                                                    intrigue in Guinea to public procurement scandals in
                                                                         a business will remain a key challenge going forward.
                                                                         This requires a robust and proactive approach to risk                      Kenya and Nigeria, foreign companies will continue to
                    Warren Buffett                                       management which is also properly resourced and                            face substantial risks if they are found to have breached
                                                                         overseen at a strategic level within an organisation.                      the law.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                          08
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                     africapractice

Five markets to watch in 2018                                                                                                     South Africa
                                                                                                                                  Cyril Ramaphosa’s victory in the ANC’s seminal elective conference in
                                                                                                                                  December 2017 has been celebrated in many quarters. For those who
                                                                                                                                  have tired of the sleaze and political intrigue headlines which have
                                                                                                                                  become a daily feature of South African politics under President Jacob
                                                                                                                                  Zuma, the result was a rejection of the status quo and an opportunity
                                                                                                                                  to hold the state accountable once more. Yet while Ramaphosa is
                                                                                                                                  probably the best person for the job, he faces a monumental task
                                                                                                                                  ahead of him in 2018. He will also be shackled by the deep fault-lines
                                                                                                                                  that now run through his party, evidenced not just in the factional split
                                                                                                                                  of the top-six leadership positions that surround him, but throughout
                                                                                                                                  the ANC’s party structures.
                                                                         Muhammadu Buhari, President of Nigeria
                                                                                                                                  We anticipate that Ramaphosa will stay true to his commitment to
                                                                                                                                  taking a tougher line on graft, and pushing for investigations into
Nigeria                                                                                                                           some of the allegations which have blighted Zuma’s political career.
                                                                                                                                  The President may well even find himself forced from office in the
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s defection from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP in
                                                                                                                                  coming weeks, but he will be reluctant to leave without some form
November 2017 feels like a starting gun for a year that will no doubt see electoral politics rise
                                                                                                                                  of guarantees, and this will dominate South African political debate in
to the fore once again ahead of elections in February 2019. President Muhammadu Buhari’s
                                                                                                                                  the short term. On the policy front, once Ramaphosa has the reins of
ill-health over the course of his first term in office is the main uncertainty leading into the year.
                                                                                                                                  power, he is likely to be pragmatic in his approach, not bending to the
His backers are rallying behind him to run for a second term, and if he takes this option, the rest
                                                                                                                                  wind of populism, nor responding wholeheartedly to the demands of
of his party – including key power-brokers from the south-west – will likely fall in line, signalling
                                                                                                                                  business and financiers. Several of the more controversial decisions
continuity in the medium-term political outlook. Yet any further deterioration in Buhari’s health,
                                                                                                                                  made by Zuma in recent months – including around the nuclear
or a decision not to run, will open the floodgates for a political scramble to succeed him. This
                                                                                                                                  deal, state agency bailouts and the new mining charter – are likely
could undo the ruling APC’s internal alliances as personal ambitions and regional rivalries trump
                                                                                                                                  to come under scrutiny. Ramaphosa is also likely to put in place a
what remains a nascent party structure.
                                                                                                                                  cabinet with reassuringly technocratic figures in strategic posts. And
The PDP is unlikely to regain the advantage and triumph at the national level having struggled to                                 while his rhetoric will sometimes see populist overtures on the need
overcome its own internal differences and regain stature. But floor-crossing and fragmentation of                                 to drive a more radical economic transformation agenda, for the most
the APC could create a weaker centre of power which complicates policymaking and the process                                      part, policy interventions and reforms will tow a more cautious line.
of governing amid continual political distractions. Businesses will feel the impact of creeping                                   Importantly, Ramaphosa’s tentative approach will limit the prospects
electoral politics, but Nigeria is poised to regain stature in 2018 as the country claws its way back                             for radical reform and progress – at least until he can gain a stronger
into economic recovery and reclaims its position as one of Africa’s foremost economies.                                           foothold after the 2019 elections.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                         9
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                     africapractice

Zimbabwe                                                                                                              Tanzania
The euphoria that accompanied Robert Mugabe’s overthrow is already giving way to                                      The ‘Magufuli way’ has seemed like an unstoppable force since President John
a recognition of the realities that Zimbabwe finds itself in. The economy has shrunk                                  Magufuli came to power in November 2015, promising to clean up the system
to less than half its size since 2000, when the country defaulted on its external debt.                               and recalibrate the state’s relationship with the private sector. Magufuli has
While Chinese support provided some alleviation to a steadily worsening economic                                      reduced losses and leakages within the state apparatus, while taking a tough
situation, in recent years even the Chinese have been reluctant to reach for the wallet.                              stance on fiscal and regulatory compliance. Yet the authorities’ committed
The country’s new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, faces a tough task to convince                                       approach to increasing internal revenue generation and tackling corruption
the international and business community that Zimbabwe is changing its ways. But                                      has at times looked over-zealous and broad-brushed, capturing compliant
while he is undoubtedly a stalwart ZANU-PF figure, he has also shown signs in recent                                  and ethical companies in a net of politicised state intrusion. This has elicited
months that he is committed to reform.                                                                                accusations that Tanzania is returning to its socialist roots, and fostered a climate
Mnangagwa has made a cautious start, appointing a cabinet that blends competent                                       of frustration and despair within parts of the private sector. As such, businesses
officials in key posts with military and political stalwarts who can help steady the ship in                          that were previously in growth-and-investment mode, are now battening down
a time of volatility. He is likely to focus his initial energies on courting the international                        the hatches to manage these emergent political, fiscal and regulatory risks.
community to secure a debt write-off – a process that will likely require a willingness                               In 2018, we anticipate that these dynamics will become increasingly evident
to agree to political and electoral reforms. With Mnangagwa enjoying a groundswell of                                 in the real economy. Amid tough operating conditions, there are already signs
support after Mugabe’s overthrow, and the opposition remaining in a state of relative                                 that non-performing loans are spiking and lending to the private sector is on
disarray, he may just bite this bullet. But he will also tread cautiously, knowing he                                 the decline. More broadly, business confidence is down and new investors
remains answerable to vested interests in his party and in the military old-guard. This                               are feeling wary of a government which at times appears more interested in
will be evident in the ruling party’s approach to national elections, scheduled for July                              securing populist wins and re-asserting the state’s central role than attracting
2018, but subject to change given the current political flux and uncertainty.                                         and partnering with private investment. Commercial results and foreign
With Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF looking likely to remain in power beyond the next                                          investment streams in 2018 will expose these issues, even if a continued state-
elections, much attention will also be given to their policy stance. We anticipate a                                  led investment drive preserves reasonably robust growth levels. The interesting
move away from the disastrous indigenisation agenda, with efforts to re-assure and re-                                thing to watch will be whether the private sector’s travails resonate politically.
engage with investors. This will see Zimbabwe’s economic growth pick up apace, given                                  The opposition remains a weak force, and Magufuli’s detractors in the CCM are
the huge potential and strong human capital the country still holds. But the country will                             wary of challenging the status quo for fear of being seen to be against the party
be starting from a low base after nearly two decades of decline, and it will take years                               and the anti-corruption drive. But there are increased rumblings of discontent
to rebuild an economy that has been brought to its knees. While there may be some                                     and the data will likely bear that out in 2018, potentially fostering more debate
bargains for those with a risk appetite, many investors and financiers remain wary of                                 across the political landscape, and even a softening of government approach on
dealing with a party that has such a poor track record on meeting its commitments and                                 some issues impacting business. Much will depend on Magufuli’s temperament
providing stable guarantees to investors.                                                                             and response, given how central he has become to the ruling system.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                       10
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                         africapractice

Kenya
Kenya limps into 2018 after its protracted electoral cycle, but will likely
                                                                                                                                                                          Uhuru Kenyatta, President of Kenya
emerge stronger once the year is out. The dust has yet to settle on Uhuru
Kenyatta and the Jubilee Party’s electoral victory, and the political landscape
will remain dominated by the fallout in the short-term. Going forward, we
anticipate a continual tussle for priority between the President’s camp
and that of his deputy as Kenyatta seeks to secure a legacy and Ruto eyes
succession. Despite a determined effort by the opposition to challenge the
legitimacy of the poll after their boycott of the re-run, we anticipate that
they will struggle to maintain momentum as the Jubilee administration gets
back to the business of running the state. If the opposition does seek to
raise the tempo, we can anticipate a forceful response from government
with legal measures to curb political challenges, and tough policing if it
spills into the streets again.
Revitalising the economy will be Kenyatta’s first priority once his
appointments are all in place. The government will focus on development-
oriented priorities around job creation, affordable housing, food security
and universal healthcare, but it will also need to tackle the thornier
issue of its rising debt profile. There have been limited signs to date that
the Kenyatta administration has the appetite to reel in wasteful public
expenditure, restructure debt and build a more sustainable macro-economic
management framework. But Kenyatta’s second term presents a window
for this, which will perhaps be the greatest test of his leadership. It also
remains to be seen whether the government in its drive to improve service
delivery is also going to be more committed to tackling the governance
shortfalls which were a clarion call for the opposition in the elections. A
tougher stance on corruption in particular will be essential to re-setting the
political narrative in Kenya after an underwhelming first term.

                                          africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                               11
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                                                      africapractice

About africapractice
africapractice is a pan-African risk advisory and strategic
communications consulting firm. We advise some of the largest
institutions, companies and investors on the African continent, helping
them to understand complex political and commercial dynamics                                                         Our local footprint and consulting experience
and manage challenging relationships with demanding and critical
audiences including regulators, media, capital markets, customers and
suppliers.
                                                                                                             Casablanca
Our team of political and sector analysts, public affairs advisors and
communications specialists provides a range of services designed
to assist companies to manage risk and reputation throughout the
investment cycle:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                London
                                                                                                           Conakry
   Intelligence & Analysis                                                                                                                                                                              UK

                                                •   Opportunity identification                                                                                                                Nairobi
                                                •   Commercial intelligence
                                                •   Political intelligence                                                Lagos
                                                •   Risk analysis                                                                                                                     Dar es Salaam

                                                                                                             90+ consultants with country,
              Strategy                                                                                       sector and disciplinary expertise
                                          •   Knowledge Management
                                          •   Issues Management                                              80+ vetted sources                                                                         Permanent presence
                                                                                                                                           Gaborone
                                          •   Stakeholder Management
                                          •   Market Entry                                                                                                                                              Consulting experience
                                                                                                             2,000+ informal sources
                                          •   Leadership Positioning                                                                                                           Johannesburg
                                                                                                                                                                                                        AP offices

           Engagement                                 •   Corporate Communications
                                                      •   Media Relations
                                                      •   Government Affairs
                                                      •   Investor Relations

                                               africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         12
The African year in 2018 - January 2018                                                                                                                                       africapractice

                                          Contact
                                          Roddy Barclay
                                          Head of Intelligence and Analysis
                                          rbarclay@africapractice.com/ +44 207 087 3785

                                          africapractice - www.africapractice.com

                                              africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
You can also read