The African year in africapractice - Africa Practice
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
africapractice The African year in January 2018 africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Managing the pace of change The stability of African governments is increasingly In South Africa, we anticipate that Ramaphosa will work defined by their ability to manage the pace of social and with allies to outmanoeuvre President Jacob Zuma and political change. Africa’s burgeoning youth populations remove him from office in a process that will leave the “Africa is getting to the tipping are flocking to the cities, embracing new forms of party bruised and battered. This will potentially pave point where the people will communications and media, and vocally demanding the way for further judicial processes targeting Zuma. greater accountability from their governments. Young Thereafter, the ANC’s new leader is likely to make robust determine who governs them. A and aspirational societies are above all anxious for jobs, but they also expect better public services and more cabinet selections to reassure the capital markets, step back from some of President Jacob Zuma’s more club of elite will no longer have evident social justice. This tide of expectation from controversial recent populist policy interventions, and the power to dictate what happens the grassroots makes change inevitable. But while importantly, push for investigations into some of the governments cannot stop it, they can still shape the alleged graft which has rocked South African politics in on the continent” pace and direction of change. recent years. This will not be an easy task, such is the In The African Year in 2017, we talked about the notion divided nature of his party and the fragile state of the Oby Ezekwesili of a divergent continent in which reform-minded economy. But he will look to assert his authority and governments with the political will to deliver on their strike a note of change, while upholding aspects of the development strategy would oversee robust growth, ANC’s radical economic transformation agenda, which Oby Ezekwesili while those that resorted to window-dressing efforts remains so critical to South Africa’s long-term socio- at reform while clinging to power through a reliance economic rebalancing post-apartheid. on patronage would bumble along in a dysfunctional Lourenço is also making waves in Angola as he seeks status quo – or worse still, face overthrow or electoral to assert his authority over the state apparatus and defeat. In 2018, we anticipate more bumps in the dilute the lingering influence of the dos Santos family, road for African leaders who fail to respond to the who have dominated Angolan politics for the last three clamouring of their young populations. But we also see decades. From his new position of growing strength, we the emergence of a new generation of leadership which anticipate that Lourenço’s reforms will move beyond has grown savvier to these risks, and more responsive personnel changes to actually tackle some of the as a result. monopolies that thrive in Angola’s heavily politicised The new administrations of Cyril Ramaphosa in South business landscape. It remains to be seen however, Africa, João Lourenço in Angola, and Emmerson whether such actions constitute part of a coherent Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe, while facing notable political development agenda, or whether they are simply a and economic challenges, will all strike a more reformist means of wresting control of key patronage structures and accountable tone than their predecessors. from the past administration. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 02
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice In those countries where leaders have sought to push back and resist the forces of change, political risks will increase, as was evidenced recently in Zimbabwe (see “The problem of Africa in general Five markets to watch in 2018). In perhaps the most prominent example of this dynamic, President Joseph and Uganda in particular is not Kabila’s dance around the international community in the DRC will continue to fuel a political and security the people but leaders who want crisis in 2018 that carries risks of escalation. Kabila will to overstay in power.” continue to play to the gallery on his commitment to elections, but we see this as a means to drag his heels as he remains in power. This dynamic will continue to Yoweri Museveni in 1986, foment unrest and violence as the country limps along shortly before he took power its transitional route. The impact on the mining sector will be limited in relatively stable regions like Katanga, whereas companies operating in the volatile Kivus and Kasai region will see greater risks. But while the political Lastly, Ethiopia is an interesting example of a country crisis may distract from some of the more aggressive Yoweri Museveni where the forces of grassroots mobilisation are policy initiatives being considered by the Kabila creating upwards pressure on the ruling system. Since administration, we anticipate substantial license and the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012, policy review in the coming years as the government remain in power in 2018, but his lack of succession the country has been transitioning from its heavily seeks to reap greater rewards from its prized copper, planning will exacerbate structural risks in the event of centralised leadership. Formal mechanisms for grass- cobalt and coltan reserves. his death. The status quo in Cameroon therefore looks roots participation with political leaders are weak and increasingly untenable. In Cameroon, President Paul Biya retains a tight grip it is notable that social media has become a powerful over his party but not over his country, with the military Although Yoweri Museveni has recently taken a similar tool for political debate and mobilisation in the country, struggling to contain both Boko Haram infiltration in the course of action to Biya in amending the constitution signalling a growing trend that political actors across the Far North, and growing restiveness in the Anglophone to ensure he can stand once again for election in continent are struggling to respond to. Recent cycles regions. With little sign that the President will seek to Uganda in 2021, this year is unlikely to mark such a of protest in the ethnic-Oromo and -Amhara regions manage a dos Santos-style succession, an anticipated critical juncture for the country. Museveni’s calculated of the country reflect a deep dissatisfaction amongst bid to stand for re-election in October 2018 may inflame move was certainly controversial, and he will face the youth of the country who are frustrated by social geopolitical rivalries in his own party and produce a strident criticism from the opposition for his autocratic hardships and the perceived political marginalisation more volatile political landscape as the ageing President tendencies. But his grip on the political and military of key constituencies (the Oromo and Amhara make up clings on to power without managing a clear plan for apparatus is such that for now at least, he is reasonably almost two-thirds of the population but are politically his aftermath. Biya still represents a firm favourite to secure in his position. less powerful than the minority Tigray). africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 03
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Year they assumed office Liberia Gambia Angola Zimbabwe Burkina Ghana Tanzania faso Mozambique Zambia Nigeria Kenya CAR Namibia Ethiopia Madagascar Guinea Bissau Mali Senegal South Sudan Cote d'Ivoire Niger Guinea 2010 Somalia Gabon Botswana South Africa Burundi Sierra Leone Togo DRC 2000 Rwanda Djibouti Rep. of Congo Eritrea 1990 Chad Sudan Uganda African leaders Cameroun 1980 Equatorial Guinea 40 50 60 70 80 AGE africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 04
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice In response to this tide of pressure, the ruling EPRDF has taken steps to respond, reshuffling the cabinet to Fig: Total public debt as a percentage of GDP (IMF) replace controversial party stalwarts with younger or more technocratic figures, releasing selected political prisoners, and opening political dialogues to give more political power to regional administrations. Behind these moves, we are witnessing a generational power-struggle within the ruling party, which is seeing younger figures rise to prominence to provide some form of representation for the restive youth. Yet while robust economic growth provides a degree of legitimacy to the government under its state-led development strategy, the pace of political change remains slow, and some would argue that the measures taken are superficial at best. As such, the new status quo in Ethiopia will likely see more bouts of unrest met by a forceful government response as the authorities make fitful progress in responding to the frustrations of its young and 2013 aspirational population. Between populism and pragmatism Linked to this same demographic pressure for reform After a swathe of debt write-offs in the 2000s with and progress, governments are having to make the launch of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries tough decisions on how they run their economies, Initiative (HIPC) in 1996, African debt is again on make policy and fund their development plans. With the rise, with many governments using commercial commodity prices still somewhat subdued, donor and concessional borrowing to plug persistent fiscal streams proving unreliable, and China taking a more and budgetary gaps. As a positive note, unlike in cautious approach to the continent, in the last two- previous debt cycles, much of the focus of recent to-three years African governments have been forced borrowing has been to fund capital spending on to place a greater focus on economic diversification, infrastructure and developmental projects. However, debt-raising, fiscal reform, and efforts to broaden many governments have also proven either reluctant the tax base. Such reforms are much-needed to or unable to trim the public wage bill, cut back on strengthen the macro-economic sustainability of subsidies and reduce wastage in the system by 2016 many countries. But they also carry structural risks, pioneering robust public-sector reform. This has and notable opportunities and risks for business, proven evident in the challenging IMF negotiations which need to be carefully evaluated. around concessional reforms to enable extended With regards to structural risk, IMF chief Christine credit facilities in countries like Ghana, Guinea and Lagarde in December 2017 sounded the warning Zambia. The IMF is still smarting from its experiences Less than 35% bell over resurgent public debt levels in Africa, with with the concealed debt in Mozambique and we Between 35 and 50% external debt in particular vulnerable to foreign anticipate more stringent requirements around Greater than 50% currency appreciation noting the likelihood of further concessional lending, with greater disclosure as a interest hikes in the US and Euro-area this year. centrepiece. Source IMF, World Economic Outlook database. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 05
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice ring-fenced industrial parks like the export-oriented manufacturing hubs being developed in Ethiopia. Such moves are unlocking significant potential for both companies and government, with an aligned benefit from wealth and jobs creation, and increased fiscal contributions. Yet in other areas, fiscal reforms and efforts to broaden the tax base come with risks for business. Internal revenue generation in Africa is lamentably low due to a combination of poor checks and systems, high levels of informality in the economy, low tax rates, and corruption. The drive to address this issue forms an important step to build more sustainable economies. Yet while improving tax collection systems and broadening the tax base to capture untaxed areas is likely to be a positive move, we are also likely to see a struggle play out between the need for pragmatic fiscal management and the desire to secure easy populist wins which carry political capital. In particular, where tax authorities target the low-hanging fruit of existing tax payers to drive up tax collection, this is likely to carry risks to business and in some instances, have a detrimental effect on economic activity. In 2018, we are likely to see hikes in excise taxes on consumer goods that are seen to carry health and environmental impact – notably drinks, plastics and tobacco Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) products – and the telecoms sector will also face similar pressures as a perceived cash-cow for government. While environmental and health issues will be used as While 2018 is unlikely to be the year when the tide turns on African debt, we expect the rationale, often the real driver of fiscal change will be short-term revenue-raising this issue to come increasingly into focus with several bond issuances nearing requirements. And while the foot has been taken off the pedal in terms of resource maturity, and the long-term sustainability of debt in countries like Kenya, Zambia and nationalism in the extractives sector after a wave of fiscal and regulatory reform in even Ethiopia being called into question. Fortunately, African governments appear the last decade, tax and regulatory enforcement – including stringent sanctions for more engaged with the IMF and other lenders than they were during the stubborn non-compliance – is likely to remain a feature for this strategic sector, where local debt crises of the 1980s. But public-sector reforms will prove a bitter pill to swallow, content and beneficiation will be the primary government focus. and with governments under pressure to maintain spending and preserve jobs, the Businesses will need to be alert to these risks, which can originate domestically or debt mountain is more likely to swell than deflate. This issue could well come back to result from contagion stemming from ‘influencer markets’ like South Africa, Nigeria bite, and donors are unlikely to countenance a second bailout along the lines of HIPC, and Kenya, which can carry significant regional influence. While the risk of contagion underlining the long-term structural risks this presents if spending is not contained. from the more radical forms of policy that has been pursued in recent years in countries On the other hand, the move towards economic diversification – particularly in like Zimbabwe or even Tanzania is limited by the realities of the political-economy in resource dependent economies – presents huge opportunities to business. These other markets, tax and regulatory pressures are likely to become a growing challenge range from reforms and incentives to open untapped or under-productive sectors for business, requiring robust and proactive engagement to manage the impact on like mining and agriculture in Nigeria, to the launch of special economic zones or operations and the bottom line. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 06
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice The shifting sands of international engagement with Africa In The African Year in 2017, we noted the uncertainties we are seeing engineering and construction firms in the days of unrestricted support are certainly over. Even in international policy and engagement with Africa particular pushing new boundaries in their pursuit of on its favourable loan-terms, China has been burnt by a prompted by Trump’s victory in the US elections and opportunities in Africa. number of disputes in Chad, Zimbabwe and Angola to the ongoing Brexit negotiations in Europe. As we name but a few. These typically range from non-payment The UK has been locked in tough internal challenges anticipated, Africa has not featured highly on the issues to commercial disputes affecting its firms. Such stemming from its planned exit from the EU, but priority list for the new US President. And while the US’s experiences have drawn a more selective approach a key pillar of this approach is likely to see a trade financial clout will mean that it remains a prominent to the continent from China, and a greater focus on and investment drive with non-European partners, player on the continent, we anticipate that its influence political risks and financial returns when channelling in Africa will be in stasis for the remainder of Trump’s including Africa. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s recent announcement that UK aid should be more funds into Africa. Japan meanwhile, will continue to term, which will become increasingly bogged down in push for more Japanese investment, but the risk averse domestic infighting and diplomatic gaffes. explicitly tied to UK interests, likely signalling a greater alignment of spending on programmes that promote and cautious approach of Japanese companies may see Other countries are set to adopt new approaches security, trade and reduced migration to Europe. In them struggle to compete effectively on a fast-moving to the continent. European nations in particular particular, the UK government remains a key partner continent. Nevertheless, where Japanese capital is are reviving their interest in Africa, notably from a to many African governments and will increasingly brought to bear, it is likely to deliver robust results in migration, security and commercial perspective. And seek to use its positive diplomatic relations across the long term. we see progressive leaders like Emmanuel Macron many parts of the continent to drive a more vibrant in France and Angela Merkel in Germany, espousing Other rising Asian economies like India, Malaysia, narrative around commercial opportunities for the South Korea and Singapore will also grow their new narratives for engagement with the continent, UK private sector, supporting a post-Brexit strategy of while urging their respective businesses to seek out footprint on the continent, particularly in infrastructure, diversified trade and investment. This will be evident in industrials and consumer goods. Their geographic opportunities on the continent. France continues to the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in footprint will be more limited, but where these endeavour to break with the image of its neo-colonial London in April, when the Commonwealth’s business countries are targeting their investments in markets approach to influencing outcomes in its former colonies forum will likely provide a key focus. as diverse as Kenya, Nigeria, Gabon, Sudan, Mauritius, by forging more equitable partnerships, while Germany is focusing its energies on immigration and security, with Asia has not lost its appetite for Africa, but China’s Angola and South Africa, they will be forces to contend its development agency GIZ playing a key role in this approach to the continent has become notably more with, bringing with them an alignment of experience respect. German companies have historically adopted a cautious. China continues to be a major player in as nations which have made remarkable strides in risk averse approach to the continent, but even there, funding and delivering infrastructure across Africa but development in recent decades. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 07
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Walking the tightrope of reputational risk Recent corporate scandals ranging from the Gupta debacle in South Africa or the more recent Steinhoff controversies, to the current investigations into Glencore in the DRC, and Shell and ENI in Nigeria, have brought reputational risks back into the spotlight once again. As a frontier market for investment, Africa carries notable integrity and reputational risks that must be effectively managed if companies are to thrive in the continent’s complex and at times challenging operational environment. In today’s globalised society, issues that may once have appeared locally-focused can swiftly escalate to become global headaches for corporate boards and compliance teams. The Gupta scandal in particular has carried into a web of investigations and recriminations that has Some might argue that South Africa, with its vibrant clear lessons for the private sector. It brought about hurt their business in South Africa but caused wider media and civil-society, and robust judiciary, represents the collapse of the public affairs agency Bell Pottinger ramifications at corporate HQ. a higher risk of corporate exposure than other parts of and has dragged global names like McKinsey and KPMG In an environment in which there is increased domestic the continent where scrutiny is less apparent. But playing and international scrutiny of corporate activity, and politics and engaging in corrupt activities is becoming a growing tide of political change on the continent, an increasingly high-stakes game wherever you are in “It takes twenty years to build a companies that fail to establish and enforce rigorous compliance and ethics checks will find themselves the world. In the African context, political change will frequently bring with it scrutiny of past administrations’ reputation and five minutes to increasingly exposed. It is no longer considered actions and agreements, while international anti- acceptable to claim ignorance to ongoings in remote corruption and bribery authorities have demonstrated ruin it. If you think about that, office hubs; corporate accountability for policies, a growing willingness to call companies to account, no you’ll do things differently” procedures and strategic decisions being made across matter where they are operating. As such, from mining intrigue in Guinea to public procurement scandals in a business will remain a key challenge going forward. This requires a robust and proactive approach to risk Kenya and Nigeria, foreign companies will continue to Warren Buffett management which is also properly resourced and face substantial risks if they are found to have breached overseen at a strategic level within an organisation. the law. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 08
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Five markets to watch in 2018 South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa’s victory in the ANC’s seminal elective conference in December 2017 has been celebrated in many quarters. For those who have tired of the sleaze and political intrigue headlines which have become a daily feature of South African politics under President Jacob Zuma, the result was a rejection of the status quo and an opportunity to hold the state accountable once more. Yet while Ramaphosa is probably the best person for the job, he faces a monumental task ahead of him in 2018. He will also be shackled by the deep fault-lines that now run through his party, evidenced not just in the factional split of the top-six leadership positions that surround him, but throughout the ANC’s party structures. Muhammadu Buhari, President of Nigeria We anticipate that Ramaphosa will stay true to his commitment to taking a tougher line on graft, and pushing for investigations into Nigeria some of the allegations which have blighted Zuma’s political career. The President may well even find himself forced from office in the Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s defection from the ruling APC to the opposition PDP in coming weeks, but he will be reluctant to leave without some form November 2017 feels like a starting gun for a year that will no doubt see electoral politics rise of guarantees, and this will dominate South African political debate in to the fore once again ahead of elections in February 2019. President Muhammadu Buhari’s the short term. On the policy front, once Ramaphosa has the reins of ill-health over the course of his first term in office is the main uncertainty leading into the year. power, he is likely to be pragmatic in his approach, not bending to the His backers are rallying behind him to run for a second term, and if he takes this option, the rest wind of populism, nor responding wholeheartedly to the demands of of his party – including key power-brokers from the south-west – will likely fall in line, signalling business and financiers. Several of the more controversial decisions continuity in the medium-term political outlook. Yet any further deterioration in Buhari’s health, made by Zuma in recent months – including around the nuclear or a decision not to run, will open the floodgates for a political scramble to succeed him. This deal, state agency bailouts and the new mining charter – are likely could undo the ruling APC’s internal alliances as personal ambitions and regional rivalries trump to come under scrutiny. Ramaphosa is also likely to put in place a what remains a nascent party structure. cabinet with reassuringly technocratic figures in strategic posts. And The PDP is unlikely to regain the advantage and triumph at the national level having struggled to while his rhetoric will sometimes see populist overtures on the need overcome its own internal differences and regain stature. But floor-crossing and fragmentation of to drive a more radical economic transformation agenda, for the most the APC could create a weaker centre of power which complicates policymaking and the process part, policy interventions and reforms will tow a more cautious line. of governing amid continual political distractions. Businesses will feel the impact of creeping Importantly, Ramaphosa’s tentative approach will limit the prospects electoral politics, but Nigeria is poised to regain stature in 2018 as the country claws its way back for radical reform and progress – at least until he can gain a stronger into economic recovery and reclaims its position as one of Africa’s foremost economies. foothold after the 2019 elections. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 9
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Zimbabwe Tanzania The euphoria that accompanied Robert Mugabe’s overthrow is already giving way to The ‘Magufuli way’ has seemed like an unstoppable force since President John a recognition of the realities that Zimbabwe finds itself in. The economy has shrunk Magufuli came to power in November 2015, promising to clean up the system to less than half its size since 2000, when the country defaulted on its external debt. and recalibrate the state’s relationship with the private sector. Magufuli has While Chinese support provided some alleviation to a steadily worsening economic reduced losses and leakages within the state apparatus, while taking a tough situation, in recent years even the Chinese have been reluctant to reach for the wallet. stance on fiscal and regulatory compliance. Yet the authorities’ committed The country’s new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, faces a tough task to convince approach to increasing internal revenue generation and tackling corruption the international and business community that Zimbabwe is changing its ways. But has at times looked over-zealous and broad-brushed, capturing compliant while he is undoubtedly a stalwart ZANU-PF figure, he has also shown signs in recent and ethical companies in a net of politicised state intrusion. This has elicited months that he is committed to reform. accusations that Tanzania is returning to its socialist roots, and fostered a climate Mnangagwa has made a cautious start, appointing a cabinet that blends competent of frustration and despair within parts of the private sector. As such, businesses officials in key posts with military and political stalwarts who can help steady the ship in that were previously in growth-and-investment mode, are now battening down a time of volatility. He is likely to focus his initial energies on courting the international the hatches to manage these emergent political, fiscal and regulatory risks. community to secure a debt write-off – a process that will likely require a willingness In 2018, we anticipate that these dynamics will become increasingly evident to agree to political and electoral reforms. With Mnangagwa enjoying a groundswell of in the real economy. Amid tough operating conditions, there are already signs support after Mugabe’s overthrow, and the opposition remaining in a state of relative that non-performing loans are spiking and lending to the private sector is on disarray, he may just bite this bullet. But he will also tread cautiously, knowing he the decline. More broadly, business confidence is down and new investors remains answerable to vested interests in his party and in the military old-guard. This are feeling wary of a government which at times appears more interested in will be evident in the ruling party’s approach to national elections, scheduled for July securing populist wins and re-asserting the state’s central role than attracting 2018, but subject to change given the current political flux and uncertainty. and partnering with private investment. Commercial results and foreign With Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF looking likely to remain in power beyond the next investment streams in 2018 will expose these issues, even if a continued state- elections, much attention will also be given to their policy stance. We anticipate a led investment drive preserves reasonably robust growth levels. The interesting move away from the disastrous indigenisation agenda, with efforts to re-assure and re- thing to watch will be whether the private sector’s travails resonate politically. engage with investors. This will see Zimbabwe’s economic growth pick up apace, given The opposition remains a weak force, and Magufuli’s detractors in the CCM are the huge potential and strong human capital the country still holds. But the country will wary of challenging the status quo for fear of being seen to be against the party be starting from a low base after nearly two decades of decline, and it will take years and the anti-corruption drive. But there are increased rumblings of discontent to rebuild an economy that has been brought to its knees. While there may be some and the data will likely bear that out in 2018, potentially fostering more debate bargains for those with a risk appetite, many investors and financiers remain wary of across the political landscape, and even a softening of government approach on dealing with a party that has such a poor track record on meeting its commitments and some issues impacting business. Much will depend on Magufuli’s temperament providing stable guarantees to investors. and response, given how central he has become to the ruling system. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 10
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Kenya Kenya limps into 2018 after its protracted electoral cycle, but will likely Uhuru Kenyatta, President of Kenya emerge stronger once the year is out. The dust has yet to settle on Uhuru Kenyatta and the Jubilee Party’s electoral victory, and the political landscape will remain dominated by the fallout in the short-term. Going forward, we anticipate a continual tussle for priority between the President’s camp and that of his deputy as Kenyatta seeks to secure a legacy and Ruto eyes succession. Despite a determined effort by the opposition to challenge the legitimacy of the poll after their boycott of the re-run, we anticipate that they will struggle to maintain momentum as the Jubilee administration gets back to the business of running the state. If the opposition does seek to raise the tempo, we can anticipate a forceful response from government with legal measures to curb political challenges, and tough policing if it spills into the streets again. Revitalising the economy will be Kenyatta’s first priority once his appointments are all in place. The government will focus on development- oriented priorities around job creation, affordable housing, food security and universal healthcare, but it will also need to tackle the thornier issue of its rising debt profile. There have been limited signs to date that the Kenyatta administration has the appetite to reel in wasteful public expenditure, restructure debt and build a more sustainable macro-economic management framework. But Kenyatta’s second term presents a window for this, which will perhaps be the greatest test of his leadership. It also remains to be seen whether the government in its drive to improve service delivery is also going to be more committed to tackling the governance shortfalls which were a clarion call for the opposition in the elections. A tougher stance on corruption in particular will be essential to re-setting the political narrative in Kenya after an underwhelming first term. africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 11
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice About africapractice africapractice is a pan-African risk advisory and strategic communications consulting firm. We advise some of the largest institutions, companies and investors on the African continent, helping them to understand complex political and commercial dynamics Our local footprint and consulting experience and manage challenging relationships with demanding and critical audiences including regulators, media, capital markets, customers and suppliers. Casablanca Our team of political and sector analysts, public affairs advisors and communications specialists provides a range of services designed to assist companies to manage risk and reputation throughout the investment cycle: London Conakry Intelligence & Analysis UK • Opportunity identification Nairobi • Commercial intelligence • Political intelligence Lagos • Risk analysis Dar es Salaam 90+ consultants with country, Strategy sector and disciplinary expertise • Knowledge Management • Issues Management 80+ vetted sources Permanent presence Gaborone • Stakeholder Management • Market Entry Consulting experience 2,000+ informal sources • Leadership Positioning Johannesburg AP offices Engagement • Corporate Communications • Media Relations • Government Affairs • Investor Relations africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com 12
The African year in 2018 - January 2018 africapractice Contact Roddy Barclay Head of Intelligence and Analysis rbarclay@africapractice.com/ +44 207 087 3785 africapractice - www.africapractice.com africapractice Ltd, 14 Cambridge Court, 210 Shepherds Bush Road, London, W6 7NJ, +44 (0)20 7087 3780 - www.africapractice.com
You can also read