Telecommunications (New Regulatory Frameworks) Amendment Bill Vodafone New Zealand Full Submission to the Economic Development, Science and ...
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Telecommunications (New Regulatory Frameworks) Amendment Bill Vodafone New Zealand Full Submission to the Economic Development, Science and Innovation Select Committee 2 February 2018 Page 1 of 73
Contents All parties must have strong incentives to innovate over the UFB network ....................... 4 Line of Business restrictions must remain in place ...................................................................... 7 S69R and s69S are critical to structural separation ................................................................ 9 Removing the restrictions would have a significant impact on the market and consumers .............................................................................................................................................. 9 Ensuring continued Layer 2 access without the line of business restrictions is not a simple fix ............................................................................................................................................... 12 An alternative approach .................................................................................................................. 13 Unbundling must be made a commercial reality ...................................................................... 15 What is needed for unbundling to be successful .................................................................. 16 Competition on fibre networks is the norm internationally ............................................. 19 Layer 1 access is an essential feature of the regime ........................................................... 20 Unbundling cannot wait any longer .......................................................................................... 23 Unbundling is feasible in New Zealand..................................................................................... 24 Anchor products ..................................................................................................................................... 27 Anchor products and DFAS should be applied to LFCs to ensure geographically consistent pricing .............................................................................................................................. 27 The proposed anchor products are not well specified for the market in 2020 ......... 29 DFAS must be priced based on costs ......................................................................................... 32 Consumer Service Quality................................................................................................................... 33 A purpose statement is required ................................................................................................. 34 Information powers should focus on improving consumer choices ............................. 36 Codes can set minimum standards and resolve coordination issues ........................... 37 Page 2 of 73
Other issues .............................................................................................................................................. 39 CAPEX free-pass ................................................................................................................................. 39 Pricing methodologies will be a necessary complement to the Anchor products . 40 Full non-discrimination requirements must remain in place ........................................... 41 Commission workload could be streamlined ......................................................................... 41 Amend the purpose statement ................................................................................................... 42 Copper deregulation ........................................................................................................................ 43 Attachments Attachment 1: Advice from Paul Radich QC on the easing of the line of business restrictions................................................................................................................................................. 45 Attachment 2: The role of the line of business restrictions ................................................... 51 Attachment 3: Potential features of a Layer 1 input methodology .................................... 54 Attachment 4: Consolidated recommendations and changes to the Bill ........................ 58 Page 3 of 73
All parties must have strong incentives to innovate over the UFB network 1. Innovation is essential to reach the Government’s goal of elevating ICT to New Zealand’s second largest export category. As currently drafted, the Bill will not realise the full potential of the Government-funded UFB network. We have made huge strides with the rollout of fibre, but we must not drop the ball with the next round of innovation. 2. Chorus and LFCs currently have limited incentive to upgrade the UFB network, The Bill should maximise the and have strong incentives to prevent levels of innovation and RSPs from themselves investing in investment by Chorus, LFCs innovation such as fibre unbundling. and RSPs. This impacts our ability to bring new and innovative products to consumers.1 3. A combination of weak fibre unbundling requirements, limited terms set for entry-level broadband, and relaxation of line of business restrictions in the current Bill take us in the wrong direction. 1 Examples include Upgrades to the next generation of fibre equipment - a change as significant as the leap from VDSL to Fibre, the delivery of seamless and reliable ‘internet of things’ services, increasing demand for more sophisticated cyber security, and increasing use of data cloud applications like artificial intelligence. Page 4 of 73
Figure 1: Maximising RSP and Chorus/LFC innovation2 4. International experience shows that market growth comes from competition by both wholesalers (like Chorus and the LFC) and RSPs investing in fibre networks. 5. There are three key aspects of the Bill that will impact innovation: 5.1. The removal of the line of business restrictions on Chorus (sections 69R and 69S) will hand control of significant parts of the market to the fibre companies, bringing back the perverse vertically integrated incentives of ‘old Telecom’. This will stifle RSP innovation and put current product innovation, like internet telephone services and internet television broadcasting at risk. 5.2. The Bill is not strong enough to make fibre unbundling an early reality. The current proposal leaves too much in the hands of Chorus and the LFCs, hoping they act like a benevolent monopolist and shape the market to align with consumer’s interests rather than their own. 2 This figure is focussed on forward looking innovations, so does not cover the currently contracted UFB builds. It does, however, count innovations such as VOIP and multicast that are under threat by the current proposals. In the New Zealand context it is also appropriate to count adoption of technology as innovation as well as developing unique technologies. Page 5 of 73
5.3. Setting the broadband anchor product at 100/20 Mbps means that it will be irrelevant in the market in 2020-2023. In this fast moving market, what may be sufficient today will be irrelevant in five years’ time. With little other constraint on how Chorus and LFCs price services, we risk turning true fibre products of 1Gbps+ into niche products priced out of the reach of ordinary New Zealanders. A correctly specified anchor product will put increased pressure on Chorus to upgrade its network earlier to meet consumer demand Page 6 of 73
Line of Business restrictions must remain in place Recommendations Vodafone recommends that the Bill be amended to: 1. Line of business restrictions on Chorus must remain and be extended to the LFCs 1.1 Retain s69R and s69S 1.2 Extend the line of business restrictions to also cover the LFCs 1.3 Clarify that the Regulatory Asset Base only extends to Layer 2, no matter the line of business restrictions in place 6. The Bill proposes to repeal sections 69R and 69S. This would remove the current restrictions on what services Chorus can offer, short of retailing. This is the most significant change proposed in the Bill, and yet has been passed off as simply removing a ‘redundant’ provision. 7. The impact of this change appears to have been severely mis-understood. This issue has never been raised in any of other consultation to date, the implications have not been fully presented to Ministers, and no alternatives have been considered. 8. As per Figure 2 below, sections 69R and 69S draw the dividing line between wholesalers and retailers. They currently require Chorus to sell a plain wholesale product (known as a Layer 2 product under the OSI model), and to not bundle this with backhaul services.3 Without these restrictions Chorus could start offering “white label” products with the ultimate consequence of restricting the freedom of retailers to differentiate themselves. 3 Attachment 2 provides a more detailed description of these restrictions. Page 7 of 73
Figure 2: Competition is reduced by relaxing the line of business restrictions 9. Removing these restrictions would unwind the gains of structural separation achieved in 2011. It would risk reverting back to the perverse incentives when Telecom was vertically integrated and controlled all aspects of the market, innovation and investment. As the owner of the fibre they would Chorus clearly doesn’t be able to squeeze margins, monopolising services previously like competition provided by the competitive retail sector. This would harm A similar story is emerging in mobile innovation and consumer choice. services, where Chorus are aiming to shut down competition by promoting 10. This is further compounded by themselves as the owner of a the lack of leadership on Layer 1 monopolised 5G network, eliminating price and terms as discussed in the main rival to fibre. the following chapter. Without true Layer 1 access, Chorus faces The same anti-competitive attitude is no competitive pressures. It is likely to be taken in layer 3+ services therefore unlikely to develop if the line of business restrictions products that end users demand. were relaxed. 11. The line of business restrictions must remain in place for Chorus under the new regime. These restrictions should also be extended to the LFCs who will have greater freedom to creep up into other parts of the market as the product restrictions imposed by CFH expire. Page 8 of 73
S69R and s69S are critical to structural separation 12. Sections 69R and 69S are at the heart of the statutory obligations imposed on Chorus when they were structurally separated from Telecom. Nothing has changed to warrant altering this position. 13. In the Discussion Paper sections 69R and 69S were explicitly noted as “enduring legislative obligations” underpinning Chorus’ role as a “structurally separated, wholesale only” business operating in “markets with limited competition”.4 14. This is also reflected in the Regulatory Impact Statement accompanying the introduction of the line of business restrictions. It states that these provisions are necessary to ensure that Chorus could not reintegrate in markets “where it could have an undue advantage arising from its market power in upstream access network service markets”.5 Removing the restrictions would have a significant impact on the market and consumers 15. Table 1 below shows some of the practical changes that may occur in the market if the line of business restrictions are lifted and a clean Layer 2 service is no longer available on reasonable terms. 4 Regulating Communications for the Future: Review of the Telecommunications Act 2001 (September 2015), p 69. 5 MED, “Regulatory Issues Resulting if Telecom Becomes a Partner in the Ultra-Fast broadband initiative” February 2011, para 125. Page 9 of 73
Table 1: Potential changes for consumers if line of business restrictions are lifted WHAT THINGS WOULD CHORUS BE ABLE TO DO IF WHAT IMPACT WOULD THIS HAVE ON THE MARKET AND CONSUMERS? LINE OF BUSINESS RESTRICTIONS WERE REMOVED ? Create more geographically aggregated hand- If hand-over at local exchanges was no longer practical it would cause significant parts over points, i.e. only sell “end-to-end” services. of the competitive backhaul network to become monopolised. This would weaken New Zealand’s backhaul capacity and make the network less resilient for consumers. Only sell Layer 3 products that include an IP Competition at Layer 3 is important as there is currently two standard in use. address Vodafone uses IPv6 whereas other RSPs such as Spark use IPv4. Which standard would Chorus choose? Certain applications need (or perform better with) static addresses, for example DNS servers and some firewalls. If this choice is made by Chorus it would make it much harder for RSPs to sell differentiated products to meet end user’s needs. Only sell Layer 3/4 products with pre-defined Layers 3 and 4 significantly impact the quality of service experienced by consumers. quality specifications To capacity manage available bandwidth, rather than investing in additional bandwidth, Chorus may sell products with high latency, or more readily drop packets, harming the day to day consumer experience. With limited competitive pressure, regulations would need to work overtime to maintain current quality, and there would be little incentive to improve. Determine if and how voice services can be It is unclear whether Chorus has the incentives to configure the network for VOIP or offered over fibre. TV services. Determine if and how television broadcasting services can be offered Determine if and how, new as yet unthought- Chorus has little incentive to create unique or new offerings, or commercially of products could be offered. negotiate reasonable terms. This means that less new products will be offered to consumers, and those that are offered, will be developed more slowly.
WHAT THINGS WOULD CHORUS BE ABLE TO DO IF WHAT IMPACT WOULD THIS HAVE ON THE MARKET AND CONSUMERS? LINE OF BUSINESS RESTRICTIONS WERE REMOVED ? Gives Chorus the ability to bundle services at For example, Chorus may reach an agreement with a virus protection firm and offer a the wholesale level. “clean internet” wholesale product. If this service was considered part of their network it would be included in their RAB and they could earn a return on it. They could sell the “clean internet” product at zero extra cost compared to a standard wholesale product, this would effectively force consumers to buy a particular brand virus protection as they would be paying for it regardless of whether they took it up or not. Sell wholesale plans that include WiFi units If Chorus and the LFCs were able to include WiFi units at the wholesale level, they would have every incentive to sell them below cost to capture the market. This would be a significant detriment to consumers as RSPs would no longer: be able to offer troubleshooting advice, which we can only do on our WiFi units become unclear if consumers can use their own WiFi units prevent competition between RSPs on the WiFi units they offer, for example upgrading the bandwidth, or technology (such as beamforming) that they use. Also innovations like offering a WiFi unit that can pick up a 4G signal to work as a backstop if the fixed network goes down. Chorus may also be able to combine the WiFi unit and the fibre modem (known as an ONT), much like Vodafone does in markets where we have been able to unbundle such as Portugal. This may be a benefit to some consumers in some cases, but is better achieved by unbundling which would enable competition rather than extending a monopoly position. Page 11 of 73
16. Not only is monopolising these parts of Chorus has a history of the market possible, but they are in restricting the freedom Chorus’ rational interests. It may: of use of its products 16.1. provide greater control of the retail market, which is an ends of • HSNS – a copper product that itself. was configured in such a complex way that it took us a 16.2. delay further CAPEX and ration full year to construct a voice existing network capability by service to work with it reducing quality. 16.3. configure products in a way that • EUBA – a copper product that is cheaper for them to has part of its bandwidth administer, but significantly dedicated to voice services, and cannot be used for any increase RSP costs to offer the other services, even if the services consumers demand. customer does not want a voice service Ensuring continued Layer 2 access without the line of business restrictions is not a simple fix 17. Attempting to mandate Chorus and the LFCs to continue to offer Layer 2 access without the line of business restrictions is not a simple fix. It would require more regulatory control than currently proposed, vastly increasing complexity compared to simply retaining the existing line of business restrictions. 18. Firstly, the anchor product regime will not resolve this problem. The proposed ‘entry-level broadband’ 100/20 Mbps anchor product must be offered at Layer 2. However, as discussed in the Chapter below on the anchor products, the proposed service will be irrelevant in the market in 2020 to 2023. 19. To retain Layer 2 access without the line of business restrictions, an access regime would need to be developed. European experience shows that this will take many years and significant resource from the regulator and industry. 6 6 BEREC, 2015, “Common Characteristics of Layer 2 Wholesale Access Products in the European Union” Page 12 of 73
20. European regulators found that it was insufficient to simply require Most European Layer 2 access with non- discriminatory or equivalence of Countries have now input (EOI) obligations. In 2014 mandated Layer 2 when the UK regulator Ofcom first Access Including: introduced price regulation of • Austria Layer 2, they found that, despite • Belgium having an EOI obligation: “there is • Denmark a significant and real risk that BT • France has an incentive to impose a price • Greece squeeze”.7 To achieve genuine • Italy open access, European regulators • Spain have imposed some form of price • United Kingdom regulation, typically either a bottom up LRIC+ approach or a margin squeeze test. 21. The draft Bill contemplates no such regime alongside the removal of the line of business restrictions. At the bare minimum, the Government should consult with the industry on the broader implications. However, we fail to see any benefits that would justify the cost of implementing a Layer 2 access regime. It is far simpler to keep the current restrictions in place. An alternative approach 22. Before any change is made to these important provisions full consultation is necessary. This will provide the opportunity for the policy rational to be clarified, all issues to be fleshed out, and alternative options considered. 23. It is likely that such consultation would find that keeping the current restrictions in place is by far the simplest and most effective approach. This will retain competition, have little if any detrimental impact on the market and the service end users experience. 24. However, if Government is set on easing these restrictions we recommend considering an Exemptions regime as part of the consultation. This would be far simpler than a European style Layer 2 access regime, and could be modelled on the Electricity Industry Act 2010. That legislation stops generator- retailers from owning distribution or transmission networks, or vice versa. However, it does allow the Electricity Authority to grant an exemption if: 7 Ofcom, 19 March 2015, “Fixed Access Market Reviews: Approach to the VULA margin”, para 3.75 Page 13 of 73
(a) the exemption will either promote, or not inhibit, competition in the electricity industry; and (b) the exemption will not permit an involvement in a distributor and a generator or a retailer that may create incentives and opportunities to inhibit competition in the electricity industry8 25. Alongside the Exemptions regime, the legislation should also clarify that the regulatory asset base (RAB) only covers fibre services up to Layer 2. This would make it more difficult, but not impossible, for Chorus to implement a margin squeeze for any of the exempt activities. 8 Electricity Industry Act 2010 s90(2) Page 14 of 73
Unbundling must be made a commercial reality Recommendations Vodafone recommends that the Bill be amended to: 2. Ensure unbundling becomes a commercial reality 2.1 Include the Equivalence of Input (EOI) obligation on the Layer 1 product in the Act, and clarify that this applies to both price and terms 2.2 Extend the unbundling requirement to the LFCs, rather than just to providers subject to price-quality regulation 2.3 Require the Commission to set a Layer 1 input methodology 2.4 Require the Commission to collect and publish the information required to calculate the Layer 1 price 2.5 Allow the Commission to set a Layer 1 anchor price from the first regulatory period 2.6 Remove the Ministerial approval required before setting a layer 1 price 2.7 Delete the proposed s204 from the Bill, which will only serve to complicate and confuse any Layer 1 price calculations. 26. Unbundling continues to be delayed in any practical sense. Unbundling was intended to be a feature right from the beginning of the UFB roll-out. It was then delayed until 2020 to give Chorus and the LFCs time to build scale. And now the Bill is not strong enough to make it a commercial reality, leaving too many decisions in the hands of the fibre companies. 27. Unbundling would allow competition deep into the network by allowing connections directly to the fibres themselves (known as layer 1 access). Rival companies can then invest in their own active equipment creating a competitive market over features such as access speeds, latency and resilience. Competitive pressures will deliver continued improvements for all New Zealanders. Page 15 of 73
28. However, at present the Layer 1 price and terms will be set by Chorus or the LFC, guided by an EOI obligation. After 2023, the Commission can review the implementation of unbundling, and recommend to the minister that a regulated Layer 1 price is set for the following regulatory period starting in 2026 – 2028. This means it will be 2026 at the earliest before consumers receive the benefits of unbundling, almost a decade away. 29. The Bill’s approach is not strong enough to make fibre unbundling an early reality. It is the equivalent to letting the ‘fox in the henhouse’. Chorus and the LFCs are too conflicted to be given all the power to specify the unbundled product. 30. As a result, New Zealand is set to miss out on all the benefits of early fibre unbundling. This will deny the regime a major incentive for innovation, and will result in a much more complex regime. That cost that will ultimately be borne by all New Zealanders. What is needed for unbundling to be successful Equivalence of Inputs is necessary, but not sufficient 31. We agree that the Layer 1 price and terms must be set on EOI terms. This requirement is set in the Deeds of Open Access Undertakings for Fibre Services and requires Chorus and the LFCs to price Layer 1 access on the same price and terms as they supply it to themselves. 32. The EOI requirement must be included in the legislation and applied to both the LFCs and Chorus. This will provide certainty that the EOI requirement will remain in place. As it currently stands, it could be easily wiped out if the Deeds were changed. This is too low a threshold to support a significant long-term investment in unbundling. 33. The legislation must also clarify that the EOI obligation applies to price as well as access terms. Despite being the policy intent, it has caused confusion during the consultation process. 34. The omission of the LFC unbundling requirement in the Bill appears to be an oversight and must be rectified. Unbundling will be critical in LFC regions. Make sure EOI is enforceable by following international best practice 35. International experience has shown that regulatory requirements like EOI alone are not successful in constraining monopoly power. This is because too much discretion is left in the hands of the monopoly providers. Page 16 of 73
36. To make unbundling successful, we recommend that: The UK experience 36.1. the Commission is required to set a Layer 1 input In the UK, wholesale fibre access was initially regulated by a “fair and reasonable methodology terms” condition. Recent analysis found a. This aligns with the European that British Telecom over-recovered by Commission’s NZ$1.5b (₤780m) over the duration of recommendation that for EOI this regulatory approach (2014 – 2017). regimes to be successful, the By 2017 they were earning a rate of return regulator must determine in over three times greater than the advance “the procedure and approved rate. parameters” that need to be Frontier Economics, Profitability and the Incentive to Invest: A report for Vodafone, used to comply with the EOI obligation.9 Ofcom found that an EOI requirement was 36.2. the Commission is required to not sufficient for service metrics, and collect Information Disclosure resulted in quality that was “equivalently data on Layer 1 prices and poor for all providers”. For example only terms 60% of repairs on unbundled lines happened on time. They have now set a a. This will give interested far more prescriptive regime. parties the ability to hold Ofcom, Making Communications work for Chorus and the LFCs to everyone: Initial conclusions from the Strategic account on the prices and Review of Digital Communications terms they set for the Layer 1 product. 36.3. the Commission is able to set a Layer 1 anchor product from the first period if they see fit. a. If the Commission does not believe that Chorus and the LFCs will adhere to the EOI obligation, they should have the ability to set the price directly, as they did for the unbundled copper access. 37. The requirement to first report to the Minister on setting a Layer 1 price must also be removed. This is a highly technical decision, and well within the mandate of the Commission as an independent regulator. A review by the Minister will only slow down the process and impact the independence of the Commission’s decision. 9 European Commission, “Recommendation of 11.9.2013 on consistent non-discrimination obligations and costing methodologies to promote competition and enhance the broadband investment environment”,2013, para 66. Page 17 of 73
Remove the proposed section 204 38. The Government will set a number of static products that Chorus must offer, known as ‘anchor products’ and the DFAS product.10 Section 204 in the Bill excludes these products from consideration when setting the Layer 1 price. This will only complicate Layer 1 calculations, and is not future proof. 39. We favour a pragmatic ‘wholesale minus’ approach to setting a Layer 1 price. This would protect the margin between the Layer 1 and Layer 2 products, but still leave flexibility for Chorus and the LFCs Figure 3: Conceptual to manage prices of both products to reflect uptake. picture of wholesale minus calculation 40. As per figure 3, a ‘wholesale minus’ approach would require the Commission to make two key decisions. 40.1. determine a reference bundled Layer 1 and Layer 2 price to use as a starting point. This could be either the average price, or some product reflective of the middle of the market. 40.2. define the Layer 2 costs, and minus these off the bundled price.11 41. This is a common approach both in New Zealand and internationally. In New Zealand it is used for the RBI wholesale rate (ensuring a 38% discount between retail and wholesale), and the avoided costs saved approach applied by the Commission to Telecom in the past. A similar approach was also used for determining the wholesale access price to British Telecom’s fibre network in the UK. 42. Section 204 would constrain the choice of the reference product, potentially making a ‘wholesale minus’ approach unworkable. For example, it is unclear if the reference product could be the average price, as that would include the anchor products set by Government. If the anchor products were excluded from the average it would artificially inflate the Layer 1 price. 10 These products are discussed in more detail in the next chapter. 11 This would be a specific dollar value rather than a percentage. This gives greater flexibility for both prices to ‘float’, adjusting to the market conditions. Page 18 of 73
43. We are also concerned that if in the future the Commission sets a larger suite of anchor products, there may be few products remaining to use as a reference price. As it is currently written this even applies if the anchor product prices are set based on costs, leaving no justification to continue to exclude them. 44. This clause must be deleted, or at bare minimum amended to be more principles- based. The reference product must be able to be set on principled economic terms, not constrained by the Act. Competition on fibre networks is the norm internationally Regulatory agencies should 45. Unbundling is all about encourage infrastructure competition creating competition in a larger at the deepest level where it is part of the fibre market. It reasonable allows rival companies to install their own equipment in the BEREC Best Practice Remedies on the Market for Wholesale (Physical) Network Infrastructure network, offering variety to Access consumers and healthy competitive tension. 46. Most countries now consider some form of infrastructure competition to be an essential part of the market. The form of infrastructure competition varies from country to country, but there are broadly three approaches. 46.1. Facilities-based competition, which is most prominently practiced in the USA. Under this approach the Government encourages rival providers to completely duplicate their networks.12 46.2. Physical infrastructure access, which is becoming popular in Europe.13 It requires the incumbent to allow access seekers to use their physical assets like ducts and poles. Access seekers can then deploy their own fibre right up to the customers’ premise. 12 The FCC’s current stance is in a state of flux, but in the past they have put in place ‘overbuild’ conditions on merger applications. This means that the merged entity has to build a certain portion of its network in competition with existing networks. See: https://www.reuters.com/article/us- timewarnercable-m-a-charter-communi/u-s-approves-charters-time-warner-cable-buy-with- conditions-idUSKCN0XM22H. The FCC also considers regulation on a geographic basis, only regulating markets where there are not rival network providers. 13 Countries that have, or are currently consulting on implementing physical infrastructure access include: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungry, Ireland, Italy Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. Page 19 of 73
46.3. Access to Layer 1 equipment is also popular in some parts of Europe,14 and has really taken off in Singapore. Under this approach the incumbent gives access to their Layer 1 ‘unlit’ fibre to access seekers, who can then deploy their own active equipment. 47. The choice between these approaches comes down to the particular circumstances of each country. The large USA market can support duplicate networks. In Europe, mandated access to physical infrastructure is a response to the way incumbents deployed fibre, which made access to Layer 1 equipment near impossible. Layer 1 access is an essential feature of the regime 48. The reason infrastructure competition is so common across the world is because it plays an essential role in developing a sustainable fibre market. This remains true in New Zealand. Unbundling is the best incentive for innovation 49. Unbundling is crucial to creating competitive pressures deeper in the network. This will add an innovation incentive to complement the standard building blocks model, which in its standard configuration focusses solely on reducing costs, not bringing new products to the market. 50. Unbundling allows rival companies to offer connectivity with different capabilities to consumers. Figure 4 below shows the upgrade path available. 14 Including, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and Slovenia Page 20 of 73
Figure 4: Fixed line upgrade path 51. As Figure 4 shows, we are already starting to see New Zealand fall behind the rest of the world. Chorus have only recently started to consider upgrading to the current industry standard 10GS-PONs.15 This standard was approved by the IEEE in 2009,16 nine years later New Zealanders are still waiting. This would be like deploying a 4G mobile network for the first time in 2018 (rather than 2014 when it was deployed here) and calling it cutting edge innovation. 52. Internationally, the industry is on the cusp of upgrading to next generation equipment – NG-PON217. This will be critical to enable New Zealand’s digital future. 15 https://blog.chorus.co.nz/we-have-1-gig-broadband-whats-next/ 16 http://standards.ieee.org/findstds/standard/802.3av-2009.html 17 The International Telecommunications Union recently designated TWDM-PON as the NGPON-2 standard. This is capable of 40Gbps download and upload per port, see: http://www.itu.int/rec/T-REC- G.989/ Page 21 of 73
53. The upgrade to NG-PON2 will- among other things-resolve the Benefits of NG-PON2 need for greater assured (minimum) speeds. Today Chorus Massive upgrade in speed only offers 2.5Mbits of assured • Download speed 16 times greater speed on the UFB network.18 This is than today barely sufficient for a standard • Upload speeds 32 times greater definition video stream, and ten than today times below the 25MBps • Significantly increased assured (minimum) speeds recommended by Netflix for a Ability to parse out different single 4K stream.19 customer groups 54. NG-PON2 technology is being • Can differentiate service between actively developed by Verizon in business and residential the USA. They have resolved all customers technical issues, and plan to Improved resilience commercially deploy in early 2018. • Can maintain connectivity while They actively promote this as a maintenance or repairs are undertaken on key pieces of differentiator compared to their equipment competitive rivals CenturyLink and AT&T.20 55. Absent competitive pressure, New Zealand is unlikely to see this new technology deployed on UFB any time soon. However, if unbundling was available early, investors would progress right to NG-PON2 to offer new services not available today. Unbundling will simplify regulations 56. In New Zealand it is inefficient to have regulations as comprehensive as other countries. However, as the regime matures, there will be a growing need to manage the market power of Chorus and the LFCs by setting access terms and service level agreements (SLAs). 18 Currently it is rare for an end-user to ever be constrained to the assured speed, but we anticipate this will be a growing problem when the network is more fully utilised. 19 See https://help.netflix.com/en/node/13444 20 See https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/verizon-holds-firm-ng-pon2-fttp-path-says- approach-drive-future-proof-investments Page 22 of 73
57. The box to the left sets out the BEREC’s bare minimum 10 – bare minimum standards standards that BEREC21 recommends should be applied to all Layer 2 For each ‘Layer 2’ product standards products.22 In a market as small should be set for: as ours, it is not practical for the Commission to specify all • Type of technology features of every product. • Customer premise equipment • Bandwidth However, Chorus and LFC market • Quality of service power cannot just be ignored. • Traffic prioritisation 58. Unbundling will temper the • Multicast capability market power of Chorus and the • Number of VLANs • Customer identification LFCs, reducing the need for • Security comprehensive standards. • Fault management Unbundling cannot wait any longer 59. The Bill is effectively proposing to push unbundling out for a further decade. A Layer 1 anchor product could not come into force until the second regulatory period beginning in 2026-2028.23 This is almost 20 years after unbundling was initially promised. 60. By 2026-2028 the opportunity for unbundling may have passed. Delaying unbundling beyond 2020 reduces the competitive benefits and business case. If regulated unbundling is available from 2020: 60.1. we can roll out next generation equipment early in its life-cycle, meaning we can get the most value out of it before it is surpassed by the following generation. 60.2. we would be able to unbundle many customers as part of the fibre installation process, rather than as a separate upgrade visit. This would minimise disruption, cost and allow scale to be built quickly. 21 BEREC is the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communication. It provides. It provides advice to European regulators in the application of the EU regulatory framework. 22 BEREC, “Common Position on Layer 2 Wholesale Access Products” 6 October 2016. 23 The Commission can only review the Layer 1 price after 2023. If they see a problem they then have to report to the Minister. If the Minister agrees she then sets a Layer 1 price by order in council, which will then be ready for the third regulatory period which will start between 2026 and 2028. Page 23 of 73
Unbundling is feasible in New Zealand 61. Despite the significant benefits of unbundling, the Government has been reluctant to take the steps necessary for it to be successful. Much discussion has rested on an unfounded assumption that unbundling in New Zealand is not feasible.24 This does not align with our experience internationally where unbundling has occurred, or our experience of installing networks in New Zealand. Unbundling is a good business decision 62. Unbundling is an important part of our future strategy for our fixed line business. It will ensure that we can continue to bring innovation and investment on the fibre networks. 63. For example, connected homes of the future will require much greater bandwidth. Internationally, Gartner has named Vodafone as the world leader in IOT technologies for each of the last four years,25 and we are also investing heavily in video streaming services like Vodafone TV which will in the future require significantly greater assured speeds. To bring the future we see to New Zealand, we need to ensure that we have the right network to deliver it. Unbundling is practically achievable in New Zealand 64. The fibre network in New Zealand is one of (if not the) best designed networks in the world for unbundling. Unbundling was specifically designed in the contracts with CFH. As a result: 64.1. Splitters are housed in easy to access fibre flexibility points. 64.2. There are two fibre lines between the fibre flexibility points and the end- user premises. This allows continuous connection as a gaining access seeker can leap-frog the existing supplier, only shutting off the old connection once the new one is installed. 64.3. In most cases there is excess fibre between the fibre flexibility point and the exchange, with the ability to easily deploy more if needed. 24 For example in the RIS accompanying the last consultation paper it notes that “It is not clear whether widespread unbundling of fibre would occur”. Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment, “Regulatory Impact Statement: Implementing a post-2020 fixed line communications regulatory framework” 2017, p21. 25 Gartner, “Magic Quadrant for Managed M2M Services, Worldwide”, 23 October 2017. Page 24 of 73
65. As a wider Vodafone Group we also The reasons unbundling has have experience in unbundling GPON been dismissed elsewhere networks. Two current examples are in Portugal and Italy. The market are not applicable in NZ conditions in these countries allowed The paper by Analysis Mason that commercial deals to be reached.26 In concluded Layer 1 access was not both cases we were able to reach a viable in the UK focussed on the lack Layer 1 price that ensured a of flexipoints making access to reasonable return while also making splitters difficult, the lack of fibre unbundling commercially feasible for deployed and the high costs of the access seeker(s). deploying more fibre. 66. This demonstrates the practical Because of the way the network was achievability of unbundling, even in deployed here, these concerns are networks less suited to unbundling not applicable in New Zealand. than New Zealand. For example in both Portugal and Italy connections Analysis Mason: Competitive models in GPON: Final Report for Ofcom, 1 Dec 2009 run through two splitters (one near the exchange, and one closer to the premise), compared the one splitter in New Zealand. This shows the fallacy in the common argument that the number of splitter installations makes unbundling unachievable. 67. Vodafone locally has significant experience running fibre networks, and the equipment required to unbundle fibre. For example the upgrade of the ‘Fibre X’ HFC network, used the same active equipment as a fibre network. We recently upgraded to 10GS-PONs, which have four times the bandwidth of the GPONs used by Chorus. Unbundling can work in the proposed regulatory model 68. Throughout the consultation process, concerns have also been raised about how to ensure that Chorus and the LFCs can continue to have a guaranteed return each year, and continue to be able to offer a full suite of products.27 26 These were both commercial deals, but relied on very different market conditions compared to New Zealand. In Portugal we reached a commercial agreement with Optimus to sell layer 1 access to each other’s networks in the two main cities of Lisbon and Porto. This was necessary to present a greater challenger position to Portugal Telecom. In Italy the electricity utility company Enel established a fibre unit called Enel Open Fibre. Enel only deployed a layer 1 network, which they were able to do cheaply using some of their existing infrastructure. Vodafone Italy were among the first to reach an agreement with Enel for Layer 2 deployment 27 We have discussed in more detail in our previous submission why these concerns are over-played. Page 25 of 73
69. We strongly disagree with the assumption that regulation should shield Chorus and the LFCs from all revenue risk. All business in competitive markets face risks, which are increased if they do not keep up with consumer demand. If Chorus and the LFCs fail to keep up with the market, they will lose customers to any rival provider. This is the right incentive to have on Chorus and the LFCs, as it provides the pressure to deliver what consumers demand. 70. The purported risk that Chorus will not be able to offer a full range of differentiated products has also been over-played. Chorus claims that the current fibre prices – including the proposed 100/20 Mbps anchor product – are being sold below cost. They argue that using these costs as the benchmark for calculating a Layer 1 price would set the Layer 1 price too low. This is completely at odds with the financial performance of Chorus and LFCs. For example UFF and Enable would not have been in a position to buy out the Government’s shareholding ahead of schedule if their most popular products were being sold below cost.28 71. Instead of dismissing unbundling on the basis of these minor risks, attention should rather be on good regulatory design that balances risk and benefits between all parties. This can be achieved by implementing the ‘wholesale minus’ approach recommended above. See: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/waikato-networks-buys-out-crowns-holding-ultrafast-fibre- 28 189m-b-193981 Page 26 of 73
Anchor products Recommendations Vodafone recommends that the Bill be amended to: 3. Ensure ‘Anchor products’, and the DFAS product apply to the LFCs as well as Chorus to be nationally consistent; 4. Ensure Anchor products and the DFAS product are responsive to customer demand 4.1 Allow the Commission to set the Layer 2 broadband anchor product and the DFAS product as part of the price setting consultation. 4.2 Remove the requirement for a separate review, and Ministerial approval before anchor products or DFAS can be changed. 72. The Bill requires Chorus to offer certain ‘anchor’ services, which will be priced and specified by the Government. For the first regulatory period these products will be: 72.1. An entry level broadband product specified at 100/20Mbps 72.2. A voice only service 72.3. Government will also specify price and terms for the direct access fibre service (DFAS), a point to point Layer 1 service for enterprise customers. 73. These products will be fixed at their 2019 prices and then increased each year for inflation. Chorus can price any other products as it sees fit within its overall revenue cap. Anchor products and DFAS should be applied to LFCs to ensure geographically consistent pricing 74. Geographically consistent pricing has been a key principle of telecommunications services in New Zealand since December 2014. It has had an important democratising effect on supplying the best quality internet services available at the same prices across the country. Page 27 of 73
75. Section 200 of the Bill seeks to enshrine this principle in UFB pricing from 2020. However it makes one glaring omission. Currently the LFCs are free to price as they see fit, and are unlikely to align with Chorus or with each other. 76. This means many consumers will have different prices for the same Fibre product. For example it is likely that consumers in Whangarei, Auckland, Hamilton, and Figure 5 Map of Chorus and LFCs across Christchurch will all have NZ different prices. 77. One simple and low cost way to partially resolve this problem is to extend the anchor product and DFAS requirements to the LFCs. This would give at least some products nationwide consistency, and allow RSPs like Vodafone to continue advertising on a nationwide basis. Anchor product and DFAS prices will not hurt the LFCs viability 78. We see no reason why applying the anchor products and DFAS restrictions to the LFCs would hurt their ability to earn a reasonable return. Anchor, and DFAS prices will be set using actual prices already applied by the LFCs, or (if our recommendation below is accepted) by the Commission based on the actual cost of delivering these services. 79. LFCs would also be free to set all other prices as they see fit, giving them considerable freedom to ensure that they recover their costs. Page 28 of 73
80. If the Government remains LFCs have thrived under concerned about the ability for current fibre pricing the LFCs to recover costs it could allow LFCs to opt for a Both UFF and Enable have been able custom anchor and DFAS price to buy out the Government’s stake in set for their circumstances. This their networks well ahead of could work in a similar way to schedule. the DPP/CPP pricing regime for electricity distribution This would not be possible if current prices were insufficient to meet costs businesses. The proposed anchor products are not well specified for the market in 2020 81. Figure 6 below summarises what we expect the fixed market will look like during the first regulatory period (2020-23). Competition will exist for basic broadband services between fibre, copper and fixed wireless, with Chorus and the LFCs holding a near monopoly position over the higher speed products that will be in most demand. Figure 6: Broadband market in 2020-23 Page 29 of 73
82. Setting the anchor product at a speed of 100/20Mbps, priced at $4529 (and increasing for inflation) will: 82.1. not be sufficient to meet the needs of most customers; 82.2. dampen uptake of fibre for users with lower speed requirements. Alternative products will already be in place for 100/20Mbps, and $45+ for fibre at this speed will be too expensive to compete against the alternatives; and 82.3. shift most of the burden of recovering Chorus’ allowed revenue to the higher speed products significantly increasing those prices, and creating ‘haves’ on high speed fibre, and ‘have nots’ on lower speed copper and fixed wireless. 83. To avoid this situation, the Government should require the Commission to set an anchor product for mainstream users as part of the price-setting process. The Anchor products should also be set based on costs, and not automatically increase for inflation, instead only being adjusted when input costs justify it. A 100/20Mbps product will not be a reasonable substitute Figure 7 Demand for faster products will continue to 84. By 2020-23 a 100/20Mbps increase to meet peak traffic demands product will not meet the needs of most New Zealanders. As shown in figure 7 Cisco predicts that peak traffic demands will continue to exponentially increase. Faster and faster products will be needed to use this much data. 85. Asking consumers to step down to this speed if faster products are priced too high is not reasonable, and will only serve to hold back broad adoption of fast speed internet in New Zealand. 29 The Cabinet paper states that the anchor product will be priced at 2019 prices, which are currently set to be $45 for the 100/20 product. See Cabinet Economic Growth and Infrastructure Committee, 22 May 2017 “Review of the Telecommunications Act 2001: Final Decisions on Fixed Line Services, Mobile Regulation and Consumer Protection”, para 26. Page 30 of 73
86. We know that speeds have risen markedly in the last five years, and will continue to increase. For example about five years ago (August 2012) we were selling a 256Kbps product with a 3GB cap.30 For many users in 2020-23 a 100/20Mbps product will be as irrelevant as a 256Kbps product would be today. A fully connected household simultaneously managing a plethora of connected devices, running multiple 4k streams, as well as gaming and internet browsing will not function on a 100/20 Mbps connection. A high priced 100/20 product will hurt fibre uptake 87. A $45 wholesale price (and increasing for inflation), is simply too expensive for an entry-level product. This is greater than today’s price for mainstream products, and the inflation adjustment allows a continual upward march, which goes against all historic trends for this sector. 88. Alternative technologies unencumbered by regulatory pricing are likely to price more aggressively and pull customers away from UFB fibre. For example, copper (through technologies called vectoring and G.Fast)31 and fixed wireless (a possibility over 4G, but particularly when 5G is deployed)32 will be easily capable of 100/20Mbps speeds by the early 2020s. 89. We therefore risk facing the same situation as Australia, which is struggling to attract enough customers to the NBN network because the products are priced too high compared to the alternative technologies.33 This is making it very difficult for NBN to recover its costs, as there are not enough customers connected. Reports have shown that comparative uptake is now worse than before NBN.34 Prices above 100/20Mbps will sky-rocket 90. A falling number of ‘entry-level’ 100/20Mbps customers on fibre risks sky- rocketing prices for all other products. This will lock ordinary New Zealanders out of the benefits of ultra-fast connectivity. 31 See for example https://www.versatek.com/blog/how-g-inp-will-optimize-copper-lines-to-reach- 100mbs/ 32 See for example: https://www.cedmagazine.com/news/2015/06/vivint-launches-100Mbps-fixed- wireless-broadband-service; or http://www.zdnet.com/article/nbn-announces-100Mbps-fixed- wireless-product/; or http://www.landmobile.co.uk/news/spain-aeromax-selects-mimosa-networks- for-100Mbps-fixed-wireless-service-to-consumers-and-businesses/ 33 See ACCC, “Communications Sector Market Study: Draft Report” October 2017, p19. 34 See Technical Policy Institute “The End of Australia’s National Broadband Network?” June 2016. Page 31 of 73
91. Chorus’ allowed revenue will be based on the costs to deploy the fibre network, and will be recovered over all connections. Chorus’ allowed revenue doesn’t change if there are fewer people on the network. A smaller number of consumers on fibre simply means they will be burdened with higher prices to cover Chorus’ costs. 92. Ultimately this will drive more consumers away from fibre, raising the price for the remaining customers even further. Faster connectivity will be so valuable to the remaining few that they will likely pay enough to recover Chorus costs. But we are left with a few customers on fast fibre connections, with most ordinary New Zealanders on slower copper and fixed wireless. DFAS must be priced based on costs 93. The regulated DFAS product will be priced at the 2019 levels - $355 per month. This price was set in the reference offers agreed with CIP, with no clear link to the costs of actually supplying this service. We recommend that the Commission sets the price of this product based on costs. 94. At its current level the DFAS price could harm competition. DFAS is used both to supply services to enterprise customers, but also to connect mobile towers. If the DFAS price is not set on costs it may arbitrarily increase the costs of mobile services. This is particularly troubling as it may artificially make fixed wireless less competitive compared to fibre. Page 32 of 73
Consumer Service Quality Recommendations Vodafone recommends that Part 7 of the Bill be amended to: 5. Include robust purpose statements in the new Part 7 of the Bill 5.1 Introduce a purpose statement that makes clear the Commission’s role in Retail Service Quality: 5.2 Include the information gathering and monitoring powers in Part 7; 5.3 Require that the Commission issue determinations setting out the information it will collect under the information powers; 5.4 Introduce a specific purpose for information powers that focusses on improving end-users ability to make informed choices; 5.5 Make clear Retail Service Quality codes are to set minimum standards and overcome coordination issues between providers. 6. Remove the ability for the Commission to require service providers to “prepare and produce forecasts and forward plans”; and 7. Require that all Commission Retail Service Quality codes to apply equally to all providers (wholesale and retail) 96. Vodafone is focussed on providing a great customer experience. Unfortunately, service quality across the telecommunications sector has not always met the expectations of our customers, and this has resulted too frequently in complaints to the Commission, Minister and consumer organisations. 97. In part, this is driven by a once in a generation migration from legacy copper to next generation fibre and fixed wireless networks. Our customers are also rapidly changing the ways in which they use technology. This has challenged the industry’s capability to deliver services that meet customers’ expectations. 98. Vodafone recognises these pain points and is 100% focussed on addressing them. Improving service quality is at the very heart of our business plan, and we are making significant progress to address these challenges. Page 33 of 73
99. We also recognise that the backstop powers proposed under the Bill are a necessary safeguard if the industry (including RSPs, Chorus and the LFCs) is unable to address these service challenges of its own accord. However, we recommend some minor but important changes to ensure that the regime functions as intended. 100. Experience from the UK regulator, Ofcom, has shown the importance of the regulator and the industry working collaboratively to ensure that any future is effective and benefits consumers, without unnecessary cost or complexity. We are already working with the industry to determine a sensible set of metrics that could form the basis of the monitoring regime. A purpose statement is required 101. A general purpose statement for Experience in the UK Part 7 is required to ensure that the Commission has clear Ofgem, the UK energy regulator, was guidance about how Parliament given similar powers to those proposed intends the regime to work. At in the Bill. They chose to implement present, the draft Bill is strict codes that significantly curtailed ambiguous and leaves significant the ability of companies to compete. room for interpretation in the For example, suppliers were only future well beyond the policy allowed to offer four products, there intent. That would be damaging were rules on how products could be to competition. discounted, rules on bundling, and more. 102. If the purpose is clear, we can The UK Competition and Markets avoid that outcome. Clearly Authority later found these codes: defining a purpose is also consistent with the Legislation restrict the behaviour of suppliers Advisory Committee Guidelines,35 and constrain the choices of and the Treasury’s Expectations customers in a way that may have for Good Regulatory Practice.36 distorted competition and Both these documents reduced customer welfare. emphasise the need to clearly identify the policy objective in Competition and Markets Authority, “Energy the legislation itself. Market Investigation: Final Report” 24 June 2016, para 171. 35 Legislation Advisory Committee Guidelines: Guidelines on Process and Content of Legislation, 2014 Edition 36 The Treasury, “Government Expectations for Good Regulatory Practice”, April 2017 Page 34 of 73
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