Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050

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Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
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Technology Roadmap
Concentrating Solar Power
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
  The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in
 November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
 countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member
countries on sound energy policy.
The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced
economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency aims to:
n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
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  in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
   to climate change.
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           and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
             efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
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                       and dialogue with non-member countries, industry,
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                                                                                     Austria
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    online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp               the work of the IEA.
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Foreword
Current trends in energy supply and use                The emerging technology known as concentrating
are patently unsustainable – economically,             solar power, or CSP, holds much promise for
environmentally and socially. Without decisive         countries with plenty of sunshine and clear skies.
action, energy-related emissions of CO2 will more      Its electrical output matches well the shifting
than double by 2050 and increased oil demand will      daily demand for electricity in places where air-
heighten concerns over the security of supplies.       conditioning systems are spreading. When backed
                                                       up by thermal storage facilities and combustible
We must – and can – change our current path; we        fuel, it offers utilities electricity that can be
must initiate an energy revolution in which low-       dispatched when required, enabling it to be used
carbon energy technologies play a lead role. If we     for base, shoulder and peak loads. Within about one
are to reach our greenhouse-gas emission goals,        to two decades, it will be able to compete with coal
we must promote broad deployment of energy             plants that emit high levels of CO2. The sunniest
efficiency, many types of renewable energy,            regions, such as North Africa, may be able to export
carbon capture and storage, nuclear power and          surplus solar electricity to neighbouring regions,
new transport technologies. Every major country        such as Europe, where demand for electricity from
and sector of the economy must be involved.            renewable sources is strong. In the medium-to-
Moreover, we must ensure that investment               longer term, concentrating solar facilities can also
decisions taken now do not saddle us with sub-         produce hydrogen, which can be blended with
optimal technologies in the long term.                 natural gas, and provide low-carbon liquid fuels for
                                                       transport and other end-use sectors.
There is a growing awareness of the urgent need
to turn political statements and analytical work       For CSP to claim its share of the coming energy
into concrete action. To spark this movement, at       revolution, concerted action is required over the
the request of the G8, the International Energy        next ten years by scientists, industry, governments,
Agency (IEA) is developing a series of roadmaps        financing institutions and the public. This roadmap
for key energy technologies. These roadmaps            is intended to help drive these indispensable
provide solid analytical footing that enables          developments.
the international community to move forward,
following a well-defined growth path – from today
to 2050 – that identifies the technology, financing,
policy and public engagement milestones needed
to realise the technology’s full potential. The IEA
roadmaps include special focus on technology
development and deployment to emerging
economies, and highlight the importance of
                                                                                            Nobuo Tanaka
international collaboration.
                                                                                     Executive Director, IEA

                                                                                                   Foreword    1
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Table of contents
Foreword                                                             1
Table of contents                                                    3
Acknowledgements                                                     4
Key findings                                                         5
Key actions by government in the next ten years                      5
Introduction                                                         7
Rationale for CSP                                                    7
The purpose of the roadmap                                           8
Roadmap process, content and structure                               8
CSP status today                                                     9
The importance of the solar resource                                 9
Current technologies for power production                           11
Enhancing the value of CSP capacities                               13
Grid integration of CSP plants                                      16
Plant cooling and water requirements                                17
CSP for niche markets                                               17
Vision of future deployment                                        19
Existing scenarios and proposals                                    19
CSP deployment                                                      19
The vital role of transmission                                      20
Deployment till 2020: intermediate and peak loads                   21
Deployment till 2030: base loads and CO2 reductions                 22
Deployment beyond 2030: power and fuels                             23
Economic perspectives                                              27
Operation and maintenance costs                                     28
Costs of providing finance for CSP plants                           28
Generating costs                                                    28
Towards competitiveness                                             28
Milestones for technology improvements                             31
Troughs and LFR                                                     31
Towers and dishes                                                   32
Improvements in storage technologies                                33
Emerging solar fuel technologies                                    33
Policy framework: roadmap actions and milestones                   35
Overcoming economic barriers                                        35
Financing innovation                                                35
Incentives for deployment                                           36
Addressing non-economic barriers                                    36
Research, development and demonstration support                     36
Collaboration in R&D and deployment                                 37
Deployment in developing economies                                  38
Conclusion and role of stakeholders                                41
Units, acronyms, abbreviations and references                      43

                                                      Table of contents   3
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Acknowledgements
    This publication was prepared by the International    Goldman (BrightSource); Bill Gould (SolarReserve);
    Energy Agency’s Renewable Energy Division, with       Bill Gross (eSolar); Marianne Haug (Hohenheim
    Cédric Philibert serving as lead author, under the    University); Gregory Kolb (Sandia Lab); Natalia
    supervision and with contributions of Paolo Frankl,   Kulinchenko (World Bank); Keith Lovegrove
    Head of the Renewable Energy Division. Zuzana         (ANU); Thomas Mancini (Sandia Lab/SolarPACES);
    Dobrotkova helped considerably in researching         Mark Mehos (NREL); Pietro Menna (European
    the potential growth of concentrating solar           Commission); Anton Meier (PSI); Richard Meyer
    power (CSP). Several IEA staff members provided       (Suntrace); David Mills (Ausra); Jean-Charles
    thoughtful comments and support including Brian       Mulet (Bertin); Jim Pacheco (eSolar); Jay Paidipati
    Ricketts, Tom Kerr, Steven Lee, Joana Chiavari,       (Navigant); Charlie Reid (TesseraSolar); Christoph
    Driss Berraho and Hugh Ho. Madeleine Barry,           Richter (SolarPACES); Gus Schellekens (PwC);
    Andrew Johnston, Marilyn Smith and Delphine           Frédéric Siros (EDF R&D); Wes Stein (CSIRO);
    Grandrieux edited the publication. Bertrand Sadin     Yutaka Tamaura (Tokyo Technology Institute);
    and Corinne Hayworth designed the graphs and          Rainer Tamme (DLR); Andy Taylor (BrightSource);
    made the layout.                                      Craig Tyner (eSolar); Jonathan Walters (World
                                                          Bank); Zhifeng Wang (Chinese Academy of
    This work was guided by the IEA Committee on          Sciences); Tex Wilkins (US Department of Energy);
    Energy Research and Technology. Its members           Albert Young (Alsthom Power); and Eduardo Zarza
    provided important review and comments that           (CIEMAT/PSA).
    helped to improve the document. Richard Jones
    – IEA Deputy Executive Director, Didier Houssin       Other individuals who participated in the IEA CSP
    – Director of Energy Markets and Security,            expert workshop (Berlin, 14 September 2009) also
    Bo Diczfalusy – Director of Sustainable Energy        provided useful insights: Nikolaus Benz (Schott);
    Policy and Technology, and Peter Taylor – Head        Ralph Christman (German Environment Ministry);
    of Energy Technology Policy Division provided         Karina Haüslmeier (German Foreign Office);
    additional guidance and input.                        Klaus Hennecke (DLR); Katerina Hoefer (German
                                                          Cooperation Ministry); Rainer Kistner (MAN
    Numerous experts provided the author with             Ferrostaal); Avi Kribus (Tel Aviv University); Dermot
    information and/or comments on working drafts:        Liddy (Tessera Solar/SES); Wolf Muth (KfW); Jose
    Rainer Aringhoff (Solar Millennium); Pierre Audinet   Nebrera (ACS Cobra); Rolf Ostrom (European
    (World Bank); Denis Bonnelle (ENS); Hélène Bru        Commission); Mariàngels Perez Latorre (ESTELA);
    (Total); Terry Carrington (UK DECC); Joe Cashion      Robert Pitz-Paal (DLR); Nathan Siegel (Sandia Lab);
    (Tessera Solar); Jenny Chase (NEF); Euro Cogliani     and Gerd-Uwe Weller (EIB).
    (ENEA); Gilbert Cohen (Eliasol/Acciona Solar); Luis
    Crespo (Protermosolar); Goncalo Dumiense (A.T.        This publication was made possible thanks to the
    Kearney); Michael Epstein (Weizmann Institute);       support of the Government of France, through the
    Alain Ferrière (CNRS); Antonio García-Conde           Agency for the Environment and Energy Efficiency
    (INTA); Henner Gladen (Solar Millennium); Arnold      (ADEME), and the Government of Japan.

4                                                               Technology Roadmaps    Concentrating Solar Power
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Key findings
Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide low-         	CSP  facilities could begin providing competitive
carbon, renewable energy resources in countries or          solar-only or solar-enhanced gaseous or liquid
regions with strong direct normal irradiance (DNI),         fuels by 2030. By 2050, CSP could produce
i.e. strong sunshine and clear skies. This roadmap          enough solar hydrogen to displace 3% of global
envisages development and deployment of CSP                 natural gas consumption, and nearly 3% of the
along the following paths:                                  global consumption of liquid fuels.

	By 2050, with appropriate support, CSP could
   provide 11.3% of global electricity, with 9.6%
   from solar power and 1.7% from backup fuels
                                                         Key actions by government
   (fossil fuels or biomass).                            in the next ten years
	In the sunniest countries, CSP can be expected        Concerted action by all stakeholders is critical to
   to become a competitive source of bulk power          realising the vision laid out in this roadmap. In
   in peak and intermediate loads by 2020, and of        order to stimulate investment on the scale required
   base-load power by 2025 to 2030.                      to support research, development, demonstration
                                                         and deployment (RDD&D), governments must take
	The  possibility of integrated thermal storage        the lead role in creating a favourable climate for
   is an important feature of CSP plants, and            industry and utilities. Specifically, governments
   virtually all of them have fuel-power backup          should undertake the following:
   capacity. Thus, CSP offers firm, flexible
   electrical production capacity to utilities and       	Ensure   long-term funding for additional RD&D
   grid operators while also enabling effective             in: all main CSP technologies; all component
   management of a greater share of variable                parts (mirrors/heliostats, receivers, heat
   energy from other renewable sources (e.g.                transfer and/or working fluids, storage, power
   photovoltaic and wind power).                            blocks, cooling, control and integration);
                                                            all applications (power, heat and fuels); and
	This roadmap envisions North America as the              at all scales (bulk power and decentralised
   largest producing and consuming region for               applications).
   CSP electricity, followed by Africa, India and the
   Middle East. Northern Africa has the potential        	Facilitate the development of ground and
   to be a large exporter (mainly to Europe) as its         satellite measurement/modelling of global solar
   high solar resource largely compensates for the          resources.
   additional cost of long transmission lines.
                                                         	Support    CSP development through long-term
	CSP  can also produce significant amounts                oriented, predictable solar-specific incentives.
   of high-temperature heat for industrial                  These could include any combination of feed-in
   processes, and in particular can help meet               tariffs or premiums, binding renewable energy
   growing demand for water desalination in arid            portfolio standards with solar targets, capacity
   countries.                                               payments and fiscal incentives.

	Given the arid/semi-arid nature of                    	Where    appropriate, require state-controlled
   environments that are well-suited for CSP, a             utilities to bid for CSP capacities.
   key challenge is accessing the cooling water
   needed for CSP plants. Dry or hybrid dry/wet          	Avoid  establishing arbitrary limitations on
   cooling can be used in areas with limited water          plant size and hybridisation ratios (but develop
   resources.                                               procedures to reward only the electricity
                                                            deriving from the solar energy captured by the
	The  main limitation to expansion of CSP plants          plant, not the portion produced by burning
   is not the availability of areas suitable for power      backup fuels).
   production, but the distance between these
   areas and many large consumption centres.             	Streamline procedures for obtaining permits for
   This roadmap examines technologies that                  CSP plants and access lines.
   address this challenge through efficient, long-
                                                         Other action items for governments, and actions
   distance electricity transportation.
                                                         recommended to other stakeholders, are outlined
                                                         in the Conclusion.

                                                                                                   Key findings   5
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
Introduction
This concentrating solar power roadmap is part of          accelerate the overall RDD&D process in order
a series being developed by the IEA in response to         to enable earlier commercial adoption of the
the pressing need to accelerate the development            technology in question.
of advanced energy technologies to address
the global challenges of clean energy, climate
change and sustainable development. Ministers           Rationale for CSP
from the G8 countries, China, India and South
Korea, acknowledged this need in their June 2008        CSP uses renewable solar resource to generate
meeting (Aomori, Japan) and expressed their desire      electricity while producing very low levels of
to have the IEA prepare roadmaps to chart clear         greenhouse-gas emissions. Thus, it has strong
paths for the development and deployment of             potential to be a key technology for mitigating
innovative energy technologies.                         climate change. In addition, the flexibility of
                                                        CSP plants enhances energy security. Unlike
   We will establish an international initiative        solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, CSP has an
   with the support of the IEA to develop               inherent capacity to store heat energy for short
   roadmaps for innovative technologies and             periods of time for later conversion to electricity.
   cooperate upon existing and new partnerships,        When combined with thermal storage capacity,
   including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and       CSP plants can continue to produce electricity
   advanced energy technologies. Reaffirming our        even when clouds block the sun or after sundown.
   Heiligendamm commitment to urgently develop,         CSP plants can also be equipped with backup
   deploy and foster clean energy technologies, we      power from combustible fuels.
   recognize and encourage a wide range of policy
   instruments such as transparent regulatory           These factors give CSP the ability to provide
   frameworks, economic and fiscal incentives,          reliable electricity that can be dispatched to
   and public/private partnerships to foster private    the grid when needed, including after sunset
   sector investments in new technologies…              to match late evening peak demand or even
                                                        around the clock to meet base-load demand.
To achieve this ambitious goal, the IEA has             Collectively, these characteristics make CSP a
undertaken, under international guidance and in         promising technology for all regions with a need
close consultation with industry, to develop a series   for clean, flexible, reliable power. Further, due to
of global roadmaps covering 19 technologies.            these characteristics, CSP can also be seen as an
These are evenly divided among demand-side              enabling technology to help integrate on grids
and supply-side technologies.                           larger amounts of variable renewable resources
                                                        such as solar PV or wind power.
The overall aim of these roadmaps is to
demonstrate the critical role of energy                 While the bulk of CSP electricity will come from
technologies in achieving the stated goal of            large, on-grid power plants, these technologies
halving energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2)             also show significant potential for supplying
emissions by 2050. The roadmaps will enable             specialised demands such as process heat for
governments, industry and financial partners            industry, co-generation of heating, cooling and
to identify the practical steps they can take to        power, and water desalination. CSP also holds
participate fully in the collective effort required.    potential for applications such as household
                                                        cooking and small-scale manufacturing that are
This process began with establishing a clear            important for the developing world.
definition and the elements needed for each
roadmap. Accordingly, the IEA has defined its           The possibility of using CSP technologies to
global technology roadmaps as:                          produce concentrating solar fuels (CSF, such
                                                        as hydrogen and other energy carriers), is
   … a dynamic set of technical, policy, legal,         an important area for further research and
   financial, market and organizational requirements    development. Solar-generated hydrogen can
   identified by the stakeholders involved in its       help decarbonise the transport and other end-
   development. The effort shall lead to improved       use sectors by mixing hydrogen with natural
   and enhanced sharing and collaboration of all        gas in pipelines and distribution grids, and by
   related technology-specific research, development,   producing cleaner liquid fuels.
   demonstration and deployment (RDD&D)
   information among participants. The goal is to

                                                                                                   Introduction   7
Technology Roadmap Concentrating Solar Power 2050
The purpose of the roadmap                             Roadmap process,
    Concentrating solar power can contribute               content and structure
    significantly to the world’s energy supply. As
    shown in this roadmap, this decade is a critical       The IEA convened a CSP Roadmap Expert Meeting
    window of opportunity during which CSP could           to coincide with the SolarPACES 2009 Conference
    become a competitive source of electrical power to     (Berlin, 14 September 2009). The workshop
    meet peak and intermediate loads in the sunniest       was attended by 35 experts from ten countries,
    parts of the world.                                    representing academic, industry, financial and
                                                           policy-making circles. Sessions focused on five
    This roadmap identifies technology, economy            topics: CSP technologies; systems integration;
    and policy goals and milestones needed to              solar fuels; economics and financing; and aspects
    support the development and deployment of              of policy. The roadmap also takes account of other
    CSP, as well as ongoing advanced research in           regional and national efforts to investigate the
    CSF. It also sets out the need for governments to      potential of CSP, including:
    implement strong, balanced policies that favour
                                                           	The European Union’s Strategic Energy
    rapid technological progress, cost reductions
    and expanded industrial manufacturing of                  Technology (SET) Plan and the Solar Thermal
    CSP equipment to enable mass deployment.                  Electricity European Industrial Initiative (STEII)
    Importantly, this roadmap also establishes a
                                                           	The   Solar America Initiative (SAI)
    foundation for greater international collaboration.
                                                           	China’s   solar energy development plans
    The overall aim of this roadmap is to identify
    actions required – on the part of all stakeholders     	India’s   Solar Mission
    – to accelerate CSP deployment globally. Many
    countries, particularly in emerging regions, are       	Australia’s   Solar Flagship Initiative
    only just beginning to develop CSP. Accordingly,
                                                           	TheSolar Technology Action Plan of the Major
    milestone dates should be considered as indicative
                                                              Economies Forum on Energy and Climate
    of urgency, rather than as absolutes.
                                                              Change.
    This roadmap is a work in progress. As global
                                                           This roadmap is organised into five major sections.
    CSP efforts advance and an increasing number
                                                           It starts with the status of CSP today, including
    of CSP applications are developed, new data will
                                                           considerations relative to the solar resource,
    provide the basis for updated analysis. The IEA will
                                                           current technologies and equipping CSP for grid
    continue to track the evolution of CSP technology
                                                           integration. The roadmap then sketches a vision of
    and its impacts on markets, the power sector
                                                           future large-scale use of CSP, includes an overview
    and regulatory environments, and will update its
                                                           of the economic perspectives for CSP. Milestones
    analysis and set additional tasks and milestones as
                                                           for technology improvements are then described.
    new learning comes to light.
                                                           The roadmap concludes with the policy framework
                                                           required to support the necessary RDD&D.

8                                                                Technology Roadmaps        Concentrating Solar Power
CSP status today
The basic concept of concentrating solar power is                                                                           The importance
relatively simple: CSP devices concentrate energy
from the sun’s rays to heat a receiver to high                                                                              of the solar resource
temperatures.1 This heat is transformed first into
mechanical energy (by turbines or other engines)                                                                            The sunlight hits the Earth’s surface both directly
and then into electricity. CSP also holds potential                                                                         and indirectly, through numerous reflections and
for producing other energy carriers (solar fuels).                                                                          deviations in the atmosphere. On clear days, direct
                                                                                                                            irradiance represents 80% to 90% of the solar
CSP is a proven technology. The first commercial                                                                            energy reaching the Earth’s surface. On a cloudy
plants began operating in California in the period                                                                          or foggy day, the direct component is essentially
1984 to 1991, spurred by federal and state tax                                                                              zero. The direct component of solar irradiance
incentives and mandatory long-term power                                                                                    is of the greatest interest to designers of high-
purchase contracts. A drop in fossil fuel prices then                                                                       temperature solar energy systems because it can
led the federal and state governments to dismantle                                                                          be concentrated on small areas using mirrors or
the policy framework that had supported the                                                                                 lenses, whereas the diffuse component cannot.
advancement of CSP. In 2006, the market re-                                                                                 Concentrating the sun’s rays thus requires reliably
emerged in Spain and the United States, again in                                                                            clear skies, which are usually found in semi-arid,
response to government measures such as feed-                                                                               hot regions.
in tariffs (Spain) and policies obliging utilities
to obtain some share of power from renewables                                                                               The solar energy that CSP plants use is measured as
– and from large solar in particular.                                                                                       direct normal irradiance (DNI), which is the energy
                                                                                                                            received on a surface tracked perpendicular to the
As of early 2010, the global stock of CSP plants                                                                            sun's rays. It can be measured with a pyrheliometer.
neared 1 GW capacity. Projects now in development
or under construction in more than a dozen                                                                                  DNI measures provide only a first approximation
countries (including China, India, Morocco, Spain                                                                           of a CSP plant’s electrical output potential. In
and the United States) are expected to total 15 GW.                                                                         practice, what matters most is the variation in
                                                                                                                            sunlight over the course of a day: below a certain
Parabolic troughs account for the largest share                                                                             threshold of daily direct sunlight, CSP plants have
of the current CSP market, but competing                                                                                    no net production (Figure 1), due to constant heat
technologies are emerging. Some plants now                                                                                  losses in the solar field.
incorporate thermal storage.
                                                                                                                            CSP developers typically set a bottom threshold
1	By contrast, photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating                                                                        for DNI of 1900 kWh/m2/year to 2100 kWh/m2/
   photovoltaics (CPV) produce electricity from the sun's rays                                                              year. Below that, other solar electric technologies
   using direct conversion with semi-conductor materials.

Figure 1: O
           utput of a SEGS plant in kWh/m2/day
          as a function of the DNI in kWh/m2/day
                                            1.8
Electric production (kWh per m2 per day)

                                                           January
                                            1.6            February
                                            1.4            March
                                            1.2            April
                                                           May
                                            1.0
                                           0.8
                                           0.6
                                           0.4
                                           0.2
                                           0.0
                                                  0             1             2             3             4             5         6        7        8           9        10         11
                                                                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                                                                  Direct sunlight (kWh per m per day)
Source: Pharabod and Philibert, 1991. 2

2                                          Unless otherwise indicated, data for tables and figures reflect IEA analysis.

                                                                                                                                                                   CSP status today      9
that take advantage of both direct and diffuse                      measurements can only be achieved through
     irradiance, such as photovoltaics, are assumed to                   ground-based monitoring; satellite results must
     have a competitive advantage.                                       thus be scaled with ground measurements for
                                                                         sufficient accuracy.
     Distribution of the solar
                                                                         Several studies have assessed in detail the
     resource for CSP                                                    potential of key regions (notably the United States
                                                                         and North Africa), giving special consideration
     The main differences in the direct sunlight available
                                                                         to land availability: without storage, CSP plants
     from place to place arise from the composition
                                                                         require around 2 hectares per MWe, depending on
     of the atmosphere and the weather. Good DNI
                                                                         the DNI and the technology.
     is usually found in arid and semi-arid areas with
     reliably clear skies, which typically lay at latitudes              Even though the Earth’s “sunbelts” are relatively
     from 15° to 40° North or South. Closer to the                       narrow, the technical potential for CSP is huge. If
     equator the atmosphere is usually too cloudy and                    fully developed for CSP applications, the potential
     wet in summer, and at higher latitudes the weather                  in the southwestern US states would meet the
     is usually too cloudy. DNI is also significantly better             electricity requirements of the entire United States
     at higher altitudes, where absorption and scattering                several times over. Potential in the Middle East
     of sunlight are much lower.                                         and North Africa would cover about 100 times the
                                                                         current consumption of the Middle East, North
     Thus, the most favourable areas for CSP resource
                                                                         Africa and the European Union combined. In
     are in North Africa, southern Africa, the Middle
                                                                         short, CSP would be largely capable of producing
     East, northwestern India, the southwestern United
                                                                         enough no-carbon or low-carbon electricity and
     States, Mexico, Peru, Chile, the western part of
                                                                         fuels to satisfy global demand. A key challenge,
     China and Australia. Other areas that may be
                                                                         however, is that electricity demand is not always
     suitable include the extreme south of Europe and
                                                                         situated close to the best CSP resources.
     Turkey, other southern US locations, central Asian
     countries, places in Brazil and Argentina, and other
     parts of China.                                                     Transporting and exporting
                                                                         electricity from CSP
     Recent attempts to map the DNI resource
     worldwide are based on satellite data (Figure 2).                   As demonstrated over decades by hydropower
     While existing solar resource maps agree on                         dams in remote regions, electricity can be
     the most favourable DNI values, their level                         transported over long distances to demand
     of agreement vanishes when it comes to less                         centres. When distance is greater than a few
     favourable ones. Important differences exist,                       hundred kilometres, economics favour high-
     notably with respect to the suitability of                          voltage direct-current (HVDC) technology over
     northeastern China, where the most important                        alternative-current technology. HVDC lines of
     consumption centres are found. However, precise                     gigawatt capacity can exceed 1 000 km and can

     Figure 2: Solar resource for CSP technologies (DNI in kWh/m2/y)

                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                  3 000 kWh per m per yr
                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                  2 500 kWh per m per yr

                                                                                                  2 000 kWh per m2 per yr

                                                                                                  1 500 kWh per m2 per yr

                                                                                                  1 000 kWh per m2 per yr

                                                                                                  500 kWh per m2 per yr

                                                                                                  0 kWh per m2 per yr

     Source: Breyer & Knies, 2009 based on DNI data from DLR-ISIS (Lohmann, et al. 2006).

10                                                                               Technology Roadmaps   Concentrating Solar Power
be installed across the seabed; they also have              emitting very little infra-red radiation. The pipes
a smaller environmental footprint. Electricity              are insulated in an evacuated glass envelope. The
losses are 3% per 1 000 km, plus 0.6% for each              reflectors and the absorber tubes move in tandem
conversion station (as HVDC lines usually link two          with the sun as it crosses the sky.
alternative-current areas).
                                                                  Parabolic trough            All parabolic trough
This creates opportunities for CSP plant operators                                            plants currently
to supply a larger range of consumers. However,                                               in commercial
the cost of constructing major transmission and                                               operation rely on
distribution lines must be taken into account.                                                synthetic oil as the
                                                                                    Reflector fluid that transfers
                                                                              Absorber tube   heat (the heat
Current technologies for                                                   Solar field piping transfer fluid) from
                                                                                              collector pipes to
power production                                                                              heat exchangers,
                                                            where water is preheated, evaporated and then
At present, there are four main CSP technology
                                                            superheated. The superheated steam runs a
families, which can be categorised by the way they
                                                            turbine, which drives a generator to produce
focus the sun’s rays and the technology used to
                                                            electricity. After being cooled and condensed, the
receive the sun’s energy (Table 1).
                                                            water returns to the heat exchangers.

Parabolic troughs                                           Parabolic troughs are the most mature of the
(line focus, mobile receiver)                               CSP technologies and form the bulk of current
                                                            commercial plants. Most existing plants, however,
Parabolic trough systems consist of parallel rows           have little or no thermal storage and rely on
of mirrors (reflectors) curved in one dimension             combustible fuel as a backup to firm capacity. For
to focus the sun’s rays. The mirror arrays can be           example, all CSP plants in Spain derive 12% to 15%
more than 100 m long with the curved surface                of their annual electricity generation from burning
5 m to 6 m across. Stainless steel pipes (absorber          natural gas. Some newer plants have significant
tubes) with a selective coating serve as the heat           thermal storage capacities.
collectors. The coating is designed to allow pipes
to absorb high levels of solar radiation while

Table 1: The four CSP technology families

                                      Focus type         Line focus                      Point focus
                                                   Collectors track the      Collectors track the sun along
                                                   sun along a single axis   two axes and focus irradiance
                                                   and focus irradiance      at a single point receiver. This
                                                   on a linear receiver.     allows for higher temperatures.
                                                   This makes tracking
 Receiver type                                     the sun simpler.

          Fixed receivers are stationary devices
          that remain independent of the
                                                      Linear Fresnel
 Fixed

          plant’s focusing device. This eases                                          Towers (CRS)
                                                        Reflectors
          the transport of collected heat to the
          power block.

          Mobile receivers move together with
 Mobile

          the focusing device. In both line
                                                    Parabolic Troughs                Parabolic Dishes
          focus and point focus designs, mobile
          receivers collect more energy.

                                                                                                   CSP status today   11
Linear Fresnel reflectors (line                           designers can choose from a wide variety of
     focus, fixed receiver)                                    heliostats, receivers, transfer fluids and power
                                                               blocks. Some plants have several towers that feed
                                    Linear Fresnel             one power block.
                                    reflectors (LFRs)
                                    approximate the            Parabolic dishes (point focus,
                                    parabolic shape of         mobile receiver)
                                    trough systems but
                                    by using long rows of                          Parabolic dishes concentrate
                                    flat or slightly curved                        the sun’s rays at a focal point
                                    mirrors to reflect                             propped above the centre of
                                    the sun’s rays onto                            the dish. The entire apparatus
                                    a downward-facing                              tracks the sun, with the
                                    linear, fixed receiver.                        dish and receiver moving in
                                    A more recent design,                          tandem. Most dishes have an
     known as compact linear Fresnel reflectors (CLFRs),                           independent engine/generator
     uses two parallel receivers for each row of mirrors                           (such as a Stirling machine or
     and thus needs less land than parabolic troughs to                            a micro-turbine) at the focal
                                                                       R
     produce a given output.                                                       point. This design eliminates
                                                                                   the need for a heat transfer fluid
     The main advantage of LFR systems is that their                               and for cooling water.
     simple design of flexibly bent mirrors and fixed
     receivers requires lower investment costs and             Dishes offer the highest solar-to-electric conversion
     facilitates direct steam generation (DSG), thereby        performance of any CSP system. Several features
     eliminating the need for – and cost of – heat             – the compact size, absence of cooling water,
     transfer fluids and heat exchangers. LFR plants are,      and low compatibility with thermal storage and
     however, less efficient than troughs in converting        hybridisation – put parabolic dishes in competition
     solar energy to electricity and it is more difficult to   with PV modules, especially concentrating
     incorporate storage capacity into their design.           photovoltaics (CPV), as much as with other CSP
                                                               technologies. Very large dishes, which have been
     Solar towers (point focus,                                proven compatible to thermal storage and fuel
     fixed receiver)                                           backup, are the exception. Promoters claim that
                                                               mass production will allow dishes to compete with
              Central receiver         Solar towers,           larger solar thermal systems.
                                       also known as
                                       central receiver        Parabolic dishes are limited in size (typically tens
                Solar Tower
                                       systems (CRS),          of kW or smaller) and each produces electricity
                                       use hundreds            independently, which means that hundreds or
                                       or thousands of         thousands of them would need to be co-located
                                       small reflectors        to create a large-scale plant. By contrast, other
                                       (called heliostats)     CSP designs can have capacities covering a very
                                       to concentrate          wide range, starting as low as 1 MW. The optimal
                                       the sun’s rays on       size of troughs, LFR and towers, typically from
                            Heliostats
                                       a central receiver      100 MW to 250 MW, depends on the efficiency of
                                       placed atop a           the power block.
     fixed tower. Some commercial tower plants now
     in operation use DSG in the receiver; others use          Other systems
     molten salts as both the heat transfer fluid and
                                                               Some smaller CSP devices combine fixed receivers
     storage medium.
                                                               with parabolic troughs or, more often, dishes
     The concentrating power of the tower concept              (called “Scheffler dishes”). They are notably used
     achieves very high temperatures, thereby                  in India for steam cooking devices in facilities that
     increasing the efficiency at which heat is converted      serve thousands meals per day. Dishes have also
     into electricity and reducing the cost of thermal         been used for process heat by gathering the heat
     storage. In addition, the concept is highly flexible;     collected by each dish; feeding a single power

12                                                                   Technology Roadmaps     Concentrating Solar Power
block to produce electricity this way is possible,        places. Furthermore, human activity and thermal
but this option does not seem to be pursued               inertia of buildings often maintain high demand
at present.                                               for electricity several hours after sunset. To provide
                                                          a larger share of clean electricity and maximise
Solar thermal electricity without concentration is
                                                          CO2 emission reductions, CSP plants will need to
also possible. Highly efficient non-concentrating
                                                          provide base load power. Thermal storage and
solar collectors could evaporate enough steam to
                                                          backup or hybridisation with fuels help address
run specific power blocks (e.g. based on organic
                                                          these issues.
Rankine cycles). The efficiency would be relatively
low in comparison to CSP technologies discussed
above, but non-concentrating solar power could            Thermal storage
capture both direct and diffuse sunlight (like PV
                                                          All CSP plants have some ability to store heat
modules) and thus expand the geographic areas
                                                          energy for short periods of time and thus have a
suitable for solar thermal electricity. Low-cost
                                                          “buffering” capacity that allows them to smooth
thermal storage and fuel backup could give this
                                                          electricity production considerably and eliminate
technology interesting features when and if it
becomes commercial.                                       the short-term variations other solar technologies
                                                          exhibit during cloudy days.

                                                          Recently, operators have begun to build thermal
Enhancing the value                                       storage systems into CSP plants. The concept of
of CSP capacities                                         thermal storage is simple: throughout the day,
                                                          excess heat is diverted to a storage material (e.g.
In arid and semi-arid areas suitable for CSP              molten salts). When production is required after
production, sunlight usually exhibits a good match        sunset, the stored heat is released into the steam
with electricity demand and its peaks, driven by          cycle and the plant continues to produce electricity.
air-conditioning loads. However, the available
sunlight varies somewhat even in the sunniest

   Storage system in a trough solar plant

   This graph shows how storage works in a CSP plant. Excess heat collected in the solar field is sent to the
   heat exchanger and warms the molten salts going from the cold tank to the hot tank. When needed, the
   heat from the hot tank can be returned to the heat transfer fluid and sent to the steam generator.
   Source: SolarMillennium.

                                                                                                 CSP status today   13
Studies show that, in locations with good sunlight          extending production after sunset. For example,
     (high DNI), extending electricity production to             some trough plants in Spain store enough heat in
     match this demand requires a storage capacity               molten salts to produce power at the rated capacity
     of two to four hours. In slightly less sunny areas,         of the turbine (50 MWe) for more than 7 additional
     storage could be larger, as it also helps compensate        hours (See box).
     for the somewhat less predictable resource. The
     solar field is somewhat larger relative to the rated
     electrical capacity (i.e. the plant has a greater           3   T he solar multiple is the ratio of the actual size of a CSP
     solar multiple3), to ensure sufficient electricity              plant’s solar field compared to the field size needed to
     production. As a result, at maximum sunlight                    feed the turbine at design capacity when solar irradiance
                                                                     is at its maximum (about 1 kW/m2). Plants without
     power, solar fields produce more heat than their
                                                                      storage have an optimal solar multiple of roughly 1.1 to
     turbines can absorb. In the absence of storage, on               about 1.5 (up to 2.0 for LFR), depending primarily on the
     the sunniest hours, plant operators would need to                amount of sunlight the plant receives and its variation
     “defocus” some unneeded solar collectors. Storage                through the day. Plants with large storage capacities
     avoids losing this energy while also allowing for               may have solar multiples of up to 3 to 5.

        Tailoring storage to serve purpose
        Varying the storage capacity is a means of tailoring CSP plant to meet different needs. All four
        hypothetical plants below have the same solar field size and produce the same amount of
        electricity, but at different times and different power rates.

        Figure 3: F
                   our different configurations
                  of CSP plants of a given solar field size
        Intermediate load                                                The intermediate load
                                                                         configuration is designed
            Solar field                                                  to produce electricity
                                                                         when the sunshine
                                                                         available covers peak
                                                                         and shoulder loads. It
                                                                         has a 250 MW turbine
                            Small storage        250 MW turbine
                                                                         and requires only a small
                                                                         amount of storage. It has
                          Production from 08.00h to 19.00h               the smallest investment
                                                                         costs and the least-
                                                                         expensive electricity
        0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2324h output.

        The delayed                  Delayed intermediate load
        intermediate load
                                           Solar field
        design collects solar
        energy all day but
        produces electricity
        from noon on and after
        sunset, corresponding                                                               250 MW turbine
        to peak and shoulder                                     Medium-size storage
        loads. It has the same
        size turbine as the                                                      Production from 12.00h to 23.00h
        intermediate load plant
        but requires a larger
        amount of storage.          0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2324h

14                                                                      Technology Roadmaps          Concentrating Solar Power
Base load                                                                   The base load
                                                                               configuration
         Solar field
                                                                               runs 24 hours per day
                                                                               for most of the year; it
                                                                               needs a larger amount
                                                     120 MW turbine            of storage and a smaller
                                                                               turbine. If the costs
                                    Large storage                              of storage capacity
                                                                               are lower than those
                                 24/24h Production                             of larger turbines,
                                                                               electricity from the base
                                                                               load plant is slightly
   0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2324h cheaper than that of
                                                                               delayed intermediate
   load plant. This will likely be the case with higher working temperatures, which will allow for less-
   expensive storage but require more sophisticated and costly turbines.

   The peak load plant is
                                      Peak load
   designed to provide
   electricity only for a
   few hours to meet the
   extreme peak load. It
   requires a large turbine
   (600 MW) and a large
   amount of storage. Of all
   four designs it produces
   the most expensive, but
   also the most valuable
   electricity.

   Source: Julien Octobre and Frank Guihard, Systèmes Solaires, 2009.

CSP plants with large storage capacities may be                         Backup and hybridisation
able to produce base-load solar electricity day and
night, making it possible for low-carbon CSP plants                     Virtually all CSP plants, with or without storage,
to compete with coal-fired power plants that emit                       are equipped with fuel-powered backup systems
high levels of CO2. For example, one 17 MW solar                        that help to regulate production and guarantee
tower plant under construction in Spain will use                        capacity – especially in peak and mid-peak
molten salts as both heat transfer fluid and storage                    periods. The fuel burners (which can use fossil
medium and store enough heat energy to run the                          fuel, biogas or, eventually, solar fuels) can provide
plant at full load for 16 hours.                                        energy to the heat transfer fluid or the storage
                                                                        medium, or directly to the power block.
Storage has a cost, however, and cannot be
expanded indefinitely to prevent rare events of solar                   In areas where DNI is less than ideal, fuel-powered
energy shortages. A current industry focus is to                        backup makes it possible to almost completely
significantly increase the temperature to improve                       guarantee the plant’s production capacity at a
overall efficiency of CSP plants and reduce storage                     lower cost than if the plant depended only on the
costs. Enhanced thermal storage would help to                           solar field and thermal storage (Figure 4). Providing
guarantee capacity and expand production. Storage                       100% firm capacity with only thermal storage
potentially makes base-load solar-only power                            would require significantly more investment in
plants possible, although fuel-powered backup and                       reserve solar field and storage capacity, which
hybridisation have their own advantages and are                         would produce little energy over the year.
likely to remain, as described below.

                                                                                                               CSP status today   15
Figure 4: Combination of storage and hybridisation in a solar plant
          50

          40
                   Firm capacity line                          To storage
          30
     MW

          20
                      Fuel backup                              Solar direct                            From storage
          10

          0
               0          2       4        6          8   10       12         14     16       18        20       22       24
                                                                                                                 Time of day
     Source: Geyer, 2007, SolarPACES Annual Report.

     Fuel burners also boost the conversion efficiency             being built adjacent to existing or new fossil fuel
     of solar heat to electricity by raising the working           power plants in Algeria, Australia, Egypt, Iran, Italy
     temperature level; in some plants, they may be                and the United States (in the state of Florida).
     used continuously in hybrid mode.

     CSP can also be used in hybrid by adding a small
     solar field to fossil fuel plants such as coal plants         Grid integration
     or combined-cycle natural gas plants in so-called
     integrated solar combined-cycle plants (ISCC). As
                                                                   of CSP plants
     the solar share is limited, such hybridisation really         The storage and backup capabilities of CSP plants
     serves to conserve fuel. A positive aspect of solar           offer significant benefits for electricity grids. Losses
     fuel savers is their relatively low cost: with the            in thermal storage cycles are much smaller than
     steam cycle and turbine already in place, only                in other existing electricity storage technologies
     components specific to CSP require additional                 (including pumped hydro and batteries), making
     investment. Such fuel savings, with capacities                the thermal storage available in CSP plants more
     ranging from a few megawatts to 75 MW, are                    effective and less costly.

          Two examples of backup and/or hybridisation
          The SEGS CSP plants, built in California between 1984 and 1991, use natural gas to boost
          production year-round. In the summer, SEGS operators use backup in the late afternoon and run
          the turbine alone after sunset, corresponding to the time period (up to 10:00 p.m.) when mid-peak
          pricing applies. During the winter mid-peak pricing time (12:00 noon to 6:00 p.m.), SEGS uses
          natural gas to achieve rated capacity by supplementing low solar irradiance. By law, the plant is
          limited to using gas to produce only 25% of primary energy.

          The Shams-1 trough plant (100 MW), planned in the United Arab Emirates, will combine
          hybridisation and backup, using natural gas and two separate burners. The plant will burn natural
          gas continuously during sunshine hours to raise the steam temperature (from 380°C to 540°C)
          for optimal turbine operation. Despite its continuous use, natural gas will account for only 18% of
          overall production of this peak and mid-peak plant. The plant will use a natural gas heater for the
          heat transfer fluid. This backup measure was required by the electric utility to guarantee capacity,
          but will be used only when power supply is low due to lack of sunshine. Over one year, this second
          burner could add 3% to the plant’s overall energy production.

16                                                                       Technology Roadmaps       Concentrating Solar Power
CSP plants can enhance the capacity of electricity       penalty. As water cooling is more effective but
grids to accommodate a larger share of variable          more costly, operators of hybrid systems tend to
energy sources, thereby increasing overall grid          use only dry cooling in the winter when cooling
flexibility. As demonstrated in Spain, connecting        needs are lower, then switch to combined wet and
CSP plants to some grid sub-stations facilitates a       dry cooling during the summer. For a parabolic
greater share of wind energy. CSP plant backup           trough CSP plant, this approach could reduce water
may also eliminate the need to build fossil-fired        consumption by 50% with only a 1% drop in annual
“peaking” plants purely to meet the highest loads        electrical energy production.
during a few hours of the day.

Although the optimal size of CSP plant is                CSP for niche markets
probably 200 MW or more, many existing grids
use small power lines at the ends of the grid in         CSP technologies can be highly effective in various
less-populated areas, which cannot support the           niche markets. Mid-sized CSP plant can fuel remote
addition of large amounts of electricity from solar      facilities such as mines and cement factories.
plants. Thus, in some cases, the size of a CSP plant     Even small CSP devices (typically using organic
could be limited by the available power lines or         Rankine cycles or micro-turbines) can be useful on
require additional investment in larger transport        buildings to provide electricity, heat and cooling.
lines. Furthermore, it is often easier to obtain
sites, permits, grid connections and financing for       CSP plants can produce significant quantities
smaller, scalable CSP plant designs, which can also      of industrial process heat. For example, a solar
enter production more quickly.                           tower will soon produce steam for enhanced oil
                                                         recovery in the United States. At a smaller scale,
                                                         concentrating sunlight can be used for cooking
Plant cooling                                            and artisanal production such as pottery. The
                                                         advantages could be considerable in developing
and water requirements                                   countries, ranging from independence from
As in other thermal power generation plants,             fossil resources, protection of ecosystems from
CSP requires water for cooling and condensing            deforestation and land degradation, more
processes. CSP water requirements are relatively         reliable pottery firing and, in the case of cooking,
high: about 3 000 L/MWh for parabolic trough and         reduction of indoor air pollution and its resulting
LFR plants (similar to a nuclear reactor) compared       health impacts. The scope of this roadmap
to about 2 000 L/MWh for a coal plant and only           precludes a full investigation of these possibilities,
800 L/MWh for combined-cycle natural gas plants.         barriers to their dissemination, or policies to
Tower CSP plants need less water per MWh than            overcome such barriers.
trough plants, depending on the efficiency of the        Large CSP plants may also prove effective for co-
technology. Dishes are cooled by the surrounding         generation to support water desalination. CSP
air, and need no cooling water.                          plants are often located in arid or semi-arid areas
Accessing large quantities of water is an important      where water is becoming scarcer while water
challenge to the use of CSP in arid regions, as          demand is increasing rapidly as populations and
available water resources are highly valued by           economies grow. CSP plants could be designed
many stakeholders. Dry cooling (with air) is one         so that low-pressure steam is extracted from the
effective alternative used on the ISCC plants under      turbine to run multi-effect distillation (MED)
construction in North Africa. However, it is more        stages. Such plants would produce fresh water
costly and reduces efficiencies. Dry cooling installed   along with electricity, but at some expense of
on trough plants in hot deserts reduces annual           efficiency loss in power production. Economic
electricity production by 7% and increases the           studies suggest that it might be preferable,
cost of the produced electricity by about 10%. The       however, to separate the two processes, using
“performance penalty” of dry cooling is lower for        CSP for electricity production and reverse osmosis
solar towers than for parabolic troughs.                 for desalination, when the working temperature
                                                         is relatively low, as with trough plants. Co-
Installation of hybrid wet/dry cooling systems is a      generation of electricity and fresh water would
more attractive option as such systems reduce water      probably work best with higher temperature
consumption while minimising the performance             levels, such as with towers.

                                                                                                CSP status today   17
With respect to concentrating solar fuels, current
     R&D efforts have shown promise in a number of
     necessary steps, including water splitting, fossil
     fuel decarbonisation and conversion of biomass
     and organic wastes into gaseous fuels. Success
     in these areas affirms the need for larger-scale
     experiments to support the further development
     of CSF as part of the global energy mix.

18                                                        Technology Roadmaps   Concentrating Solar Power
Vision of future deployment
Existing scenarios                                      of it, mostly from onshore wind and solar power.
                                                        CSP plants would form the backbone of the export
and proposals                                           capacities from North Africa to Europe.

The IEA publication Energy Technology Perspectives
2008 (ETP 2008) includes CSP as one of the
many cost-effective technologies that will lower
                                                        CSP deployment
CO2 emissions. In the ETP BLUE Map scenario,            This roadmap foresees a rapid expansion of CSP
global energy-related CO2 emissions by 2050 are         capacities in countries or regions with excellent
reduced to half their 2005 level, and CSP produces      DNI, and computes its electricity production
2 200 TWh annually by 2050 from 630 GW of local         as progressively growing percentages of the
capacities (no exports taken in account). CSP is        overall consumption forecast in IEA climate-
expected to contribute 5% of the annual global          friendly scenarios in these regions (Table 2). In
electricity production in 2050 in this scenario.        neighbouring but less sunny regions, a lower
                                                        contribution of CSP electricity is expected, which
In the Advanced scenario of CSP Global Outlook
                                                        mixes local production and electricity from nearby
2009, the IEA SolarPACES programme, the
                                                        sunnier areas.
European Solar Thermal Electricity Association and
Greenpeace estimated global CSP capacity by 2050        Plants built before 2020 mostly respond to
at 1 500 GW. The SolarPACES forecast sees large         intermediate and peak loads, while a first set of
storage and solar fields that would enable capacity     HVDC lines is built to connect some of the CSP
factors of 59% (5 200 hours per year), with a yearly    plants in sunny areas to large demand centres.
output of 7 800 TWh.                                    From 2020 to 2030, as costs are reduced and
                                                        performance enhanced, the deployment of CSP
In its study of the renewable energy potential
                                                        continues with base-load plants, thus maximising
in the Middle East/North Africa region, the
                                                        CO2 emission reductions. After 2030, while CSP
German Aerospace Center (DLR) estimates that
                                                        continues to develop, solar fuels enter the global
by 2050, CSP plants could provide about half of
                                                        energy mix. By 2050, CSP represents about 11% of
the region’s electrical production, from a total
                                                        global electricity production.
capacity of 390 GW.
                                                        The overall estimated growth of CSP electricity
According to a recent study by PriceWaterHouse
                                                        output is represented in Figure 5 in comparison
Cooper, Europe and North Africa together
                                                        with three other scenarios: the BLUE Map scenario
could by 2050 produce all their electricity from
                                                        of ETP 2008, and the Advanced and Moderate
renewables if their respective grids are sufficiently
                                                        scenarios of Global CSP Outlook 2009.
interconnected. While North Africa would consume
one-quarter of the total it would produce 40%

Figure 5: Growth of CSP production under four scenarios (TWh/y)

        9 000
        8 000      ETP Blue
        7 000      This roadmap
        6 000      Global outlook adv.
                   Global outlook mod.
TWh/y

        5 000
        4 000
        3 000
        2 000
        1 000
           0
           2007                   2020                  2030                    2040                       2050

                                                                                   Vision of future deployment    19
Table 2: Electricity from CSP plants as shares of total electricity consumption

     Countries                                                      2020              2030           2040               2050

     Australia, Central Asia,4 Chile, India
     (Gujarat, Rajasthan), Mexico, Middle East,
                                                                     5%               12%             30%                40%
     North Africa, Peru, South Africa, United
     States (Southwest)
     United States (remainder)                                       3%               6%              15%                20%
     Europe (mostly from imports), Turkey                            3%               6%              10%                15%
     Africa (remainder), Argentina, Brazil,
                                                                     1%               5%              8%                 15%
     India (remainder)
     Indonesia (from imports)                                       0.5%              1.5%            3%                 7%
     China, Russia (from imports)                                   0.5%              1.5%            3%                 4%

     4	Includes Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan,
        Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

     Figure 6 shows the growth of CSP electricity                             feed Indonesia; the Central Asian countries supply
     production by region according to this roadmap                           Russia; Northern African countries and Turkey
     as it is further detailed below. This projection                         deliver power to the European Union; northern
     takes into account a significant amount of                               and southern African countries feed equatorial
     electricity transportation.                                              Africa; and Mexico provide CSP electricity to the
                                                                              United States.

     The vital role of transmission                                           The transfer of large amounts of solar energy
                                                                              from desert areas to population centres has
     This roadmap sees long-range transportation of                           been promoted, in particular, by the DESERTEC
     electricity as an important way of increasing the                        Foundation (Figure 8). This idea has inspired two
     achievable potential of CSP. Large countries such
                                                                              major initiatives in Europe, the Mediterranean
     as Brazil, China, India, South Africa and the United
                                                                              Solar Plan and the DESERTEC Industry Initiative.
     States (Figure 7) will have to arrange for large
                                                                              The first, developed within the framework of the
     internal transmission of CSP-generated electricity.
                                                                              Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean,
     In other cases, high-voltage transmission lines                          aims to bring about 20 GW of renewable
     will cross borders, opening export markets for                           electricity to EU countries by 2020 from the
     CSP producing countries and increasing energy                            various developing economies that adhered to this
     security for importing countries. Australia might                        recently created intergovernmental organisation.

     Figure 6: Growth of CSP production by region (TWh/y)
                5 000
                4 500     EU + Turkey
                4 000     Pacific
                          China
                3 500
                          Central Asia
                3 000
     TWh/year

                          South America
                2 500     Middle East
                2 000     India
                1 500     Africa
                          North America
                1 000
                 500
                   0
                   2010                         2020                          2030                    2040                        2050

20                                                                                   Technology Roadmaps    Concentrating Solar Power
Figure 7: V
           ision of possible HVDC lines linking
          the Southwest to the rest of the United States

Source: Hank Price, US DOE, 2007.

Figure 8: The DESERTEC concept applied to EU-MENA Region

Source: the DESERTEC Foundation.

The second initiative, announced in July 2009,                               electricity losses. Further, the current feed-in tariffs
takes the form of a limited liability company, with                          in Spain or France for large-scale, ground-based
12 shareholders. 5 The DESERTEC Industry Initiative                          solar electricity would largely cover the costs of
aims to establish a framework for investments to                             production of electricity in North Africa, assessed
supply the Middle East, North Africa and Europe                              at USD 209 (EUR 150)/MWh on best sites, plus
with solar and wind power. The long-term goal is to                          its transport to the south of Europe, assessed at
satisfy a substantial part of the energy needs of the                        USD 21 (EUR 15)/MWh to USD 63 (EUR 45)/MWh.
Middle East and North Africa, and meet as much as
15% of Europe’s electricity demand by 2050.
                                                                             Deployment till 2020:
The abundant sunlight in the Middle East and
North Africa will lead to lower costs, compensating                          intermediate and peak loads
for the additional expected transmission costs and
                                                                             From 2010 to 2020, the global rollout of CSP
                                                                             initiated before 2010 is expected to accelerate,
5   T hese are ABB, Abengoa Solar, Cevital, DESERTEC Foundation, Deutsche
     Bank, E.ON, HSH Nordbank, MAN Solar Millennium, Munich Re, M+W
                                                                             thanks to ongoing industry efforts and the adoption
     Zander, RWE, Schott Solar and Siemens.                                  of suitable incentives for CSP in sunny countries.

                                                                                                           Vision of future deployment   21
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