Sustainable Bonds Insight 2021 - Environmental Finance
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Sustainable Bonds Insight Contents 1 Introduction 21 Use of proceeds by volume and value 46 Fostering clarity in sustainability 2 2020 Market overview 22 Impact finance: the case for harmonising finance and social good 49 Issuance by currency 3 Largest green and social bonds in 2020 25 Driving ESG bond markets to 50 Covid-19 response bonds 4 Largest sustainability and sustainability-linked new heights bonds in 2020 Corporate & Investment Banking 51 Social bonds 5 Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 28 Driving impact in housing in the green bond market 52 Sustainability bonds affordability and environmental sustainability 6 Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 53 Sustainability-linked bonds in the social bond market 31 Nomura: helping to finance 54 Bringing transparency Asia’s low-carbon transition 7 Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 to the sustainable bond in the sustainability bond market market 34 Lead managers – total market 8 Supranational issuance 57 A broader approach 35 Lead managers – green, social, to ESG sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds 9 At a crossroads of innovation 36 External reviewers by share of issuers 60 Latin America 12 Trends in sustainable bonds 37 External reviewer coverage of CBI deals 61 Asia issuance and a look ahead to 2021 38 Breakdown of bonds aligned 62 Distribution of issuance value with the SDGs in 2020 15 Navigating sustainable debt 63 Growth, impact, engagement: instruments: from green 39 Sector breakdown and lead managers a year in sustainable fixed and social to transition and of largest SDGs income through a sustainability-linked bonds Covid-19 lens 40 The sustainable bond market 18 Annual issuance by type, value and tenor beyond 2020 – green bonds 66 Connecting and developing strike back markets 19 Monthly issuance by value and volume 43 London Stock Exchange: 20 Breakdown of issuer type enabling a credible transition 69 Market predictions for 2021 www.environmental-finance.com
Introduction Sustainable Bonds Insight 2 020 was another record-breaking year for the green, December, providing support for sustainability-linked and social, sustainability and sustainability-linked (GSSS) transition bond issuance in the future. bond market. By the end of 2020, eight sustainability-linked bonds aligned According to figures from the Environmental Finance Bond with the SLBP had been issued – raising just shy of $9 billion Database, total GSSS bond issuance crossed $600 billion in in total. The ground-breaking $750 million note from Brazilian 2020 – nearly double the $326 billion issued in 2019. Growth paper firm Suzano in September was soon followed by a €1.85 in the GSSS bond market in 2020 accelerated on the 53% billion ($2.2 billion) bond from Swiss pharma giant Novartis, year-on-year growth reported in 2019 compared to the $214 €600 million note from luxury fashion house Chanel, and a billion issued in 2018. JPY10 billion ($96 million) bond from Japanese real estate The number of super-sized issuances also exploded. More firm Hulic. than 50 bonds raising $2 billion or more were issued in 2020, Our poll suggests some respondents expect sustainability- up from just 15 such issues in 2019. linked bond issuance to surge to as much as $30 billion in More growth is expected in 2021. A poll conducted by 2021, though more than two-thirds believe the instruments Environmental Finance indicated more than two-thirds of will raise between $20 billion to $25 billion. respondents expect between $600 billion and $700 billion to For transition bonds, a marker has already been set in 2021 be raised during the year, with the majority of the remainder by the handbook-aligned $780 million dual-tranche Bank of forecasting between $700 billion and $800 billion. China note in January. Like many of the ‘transition’ bonds Yet, it was not the scale of the growth– impressive as it was – issued before it, the Bank of China bond received a mixed Author: Ahren Lester, senior reporter, that strikes me the most about the sustainable bond market in welcome from the market. Nonetheless, the orderbook was Environmental Finance 2020. For me, it was the growing diversification of sustainable strong and we can expect more transition bonds in 2021 as bond issuance that fascinates. Rewind to 2018 and over 85% of issuers and investors look to refine the instrument. total GSSS bond issuance was through green bonds, in 2019 So, 2020 was certainly an interesting year for the market – this proportion only dipped modestly to four-fifths. 2020, but 2021 should prove to be even more so. however, saw the share of the market held by green bonds – Momentum continues to build to take action on the climate despite continued growth – fall to just under half. emergency, meanwhile the pandemic and Black Lives Matter Social bonds, in particular, were the star performer of the protests have focused attention on the social inequality rife in year. Driven on by the demands created by the Covid-19 our communities. Governments, companies and consumers pandemic, social bond issuance jumped nine-fold to $165 are increasingly growing both more empathetic about the billion – supporting projects to get individuals, businesses and challenges around us and more energised to do something For enquiries about the data in this economies back on their feet. Sustainability bond issuance also about them. Insight, or about www.bonddata.org, tripled to $140 billion in 2020. Finance remains one of the most powerful tools to help please contact ashton.rowntree@ Nonetheless, 2020 has also laid the groundwork for further effect this change, and the sustainable bond market looks fieldgibsonmedia.com diversification in the market for the year ahead. The publication set to continue to innovate and grow in order to help set the of the Sustainability-Linked Bond Principles (SLBP) in June pace. There is no time to waste, certainly, but the potential of was followed by the Climate Transition Finance Handbook in sustainable bonds is increasingly being grasped. www.environmental-finance.com 1
Sustainable Bonds Insight 2020 Market overview Value breakdown by type of bond; total market Top 10 biggest issues of 2020 size $608.8 B Issuer Currency Value in local Value in USD Green bond 295,851 currency (M) Social bond 164,874 European Union EUR 17,000 19,976 Sustainability bond 139,294 European Union EUR 14,000 16,606 Sustainability-linked 8,781 bond European Union EUR 8,500 10,127 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 Value ($M) IBRD USD 8,000 8,000 Federal Republic of Volume breakdown of green social, sustainability Germany EUR 6,500 7,771 and sustainability-linked bonds of 2020 Sustainability bond Sustainability-linked bond Société du Grand Paris EUR 6,000 7,065 (187) (16) IBRD USD 6,000 6,000 Social bond (159) Cades EUR 5,000 5,897 Total: 1,744 Federal Republic of Green bond EUR 5,000 5,845 Germany (1,382) Cades EUR 5,000 5,825 2 www.bonddata.org
Largest in 2020 Sustainable Bonds Insight The largest deal and issuers of the The largest deal and issuers of the year in the green bond market year in the social bond market Largest Single Green Bond Largest Supranational Largest Single Social Bond Largest Supranational Federal Republic of European European Union European Union Germany Investment Value: €17,000 M Value: $46,708 M Value: € 6,500 M Bank ($19,976 M) ($7,771 M) Value: $6,051 M Largest Issuer Largest Corporate Largest Issuer Largest Corporate Federal Republic Prologis European Union East Nippon of Germany Value: $3,731 M Value: $46,708 M Expressway Value: $13,616 M Value: $3,723 M Largest Agency Largest Financial Institution Largest Agency Largest Financial Institution Cades Citigroup Fannie Mae China Development Value: $22,282 M Value: $2,500 M Value: Bank $13,093 M Value: $1,964 M Largest Sovereign Largest Municipal Largest Sovereign Largest Municipal Federal Republic of New York Republic of Chile Massachusetts Germany Metropolitan Value: $2,308 M School Building Value: $13,616 M Transportation Authority Number of Deals: 2 Authority Value $1,445 M Value: $3,697 M www.bonddata.org 3
Sustainable Bonds Insight Largest in 2020 The largest deal and issuers of the year The largest deal and issuers of the year in the sustainability bond market in the sustainability-linked bond market Largest Single Sustainability Bond Largest Supranational Largest Single Deals IBRD IBRD Novartis Value: Value: Value: $2,196 M $8,000 M $54,697 M Number of Deals: 51 Largest Issuer Suzano IBRD Largest Corporate Value: $1,250 M Value: Alphabet Inc. $54,697 M Value: $5,750 M Largest Agency LafargeHolcim Value: $1,006 M Agence Francaise Largest Financial Institution de Developpement BNG Bank Value: $2,361 M Value: $3,244 M NRG Energy Largest Sovereign Value: $900 M Luxembourg Largest Municipal Value: $1,777 M Federal State of NRW Value: $2,822 M Schneider Electric Value: $770 M 4 www.bonddata.org
Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 Sustainable Bonds Insight in the green bond market For the fourth consecutive year the US and France were two of the top three biggest issuing countries of green bonds, with Germany growing to the second largest. China $15,667 M Largest deals USA $61,388 M China Development Bank CNY 10,000 M ($1,428 M) Largest deals China Construction Bank $1,200 M AES Corporation $1,800 M Bank of China CNY 3,000 M Fannie Mae $1,746 M and $500 M ($938.8 M) New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority $1,725 M Largest issuers China Development Bank $1,964 M Largest issuers China Construction Bank $1,344 M Fannie Mae $13,093 M Beijing Enterprises Holdings $1,184 M New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority $3,970 M Prologis $3,731 M France $37,012 M The Netherlands $14,995 M Germany $41,297 M Largest deals Largest deals Largest deals Société du Grand Paris EUR 6,000 M ($7,065 M) TenneT EUR 1,350 M ($1,597 M) Federal Republic of Germany EUR 6,500 M ($7,771 M) Republic of France EUR 2,607 M ($2,858 M) State of the Netherlands EUR 1,420 M ($1,594 M) Federal Republic of Germany EUR 5,000 M ($5,845 M) EDF EUR 2,400 M ($2,838 M) State of the Netherlands EUR 1,195 M ($1,340 M) KfW EUR 3,000 M ($3,432 M) USD conversion taken from pricing date Largest issuers Largest issuers Largest issuers resulting in variation in USD value Société du Grand Paris $12,550 M State of the Netherlands $2,934 M Federal Republic of Germany $13,616 M Methodology: Deals from supranational Republic of France $7,412 M TenneT $2,745 M KfW $9,496 M entities have not been included in individual countries. EDF $2,838 M De Volksbank $1,736 M E.on $2,482 M www.bonddata.org 5
Sustainable Bonds Insight Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 in the social bond market France, USA and Japan are the three biggest issuing countries in the social bond market in 2020. Japan: $8,296 M Largest deals East Nippon Expressway JPY 70,000 M ($652 M) Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group EUR 500 M ($556 M) USA $10,277 M East Nippon Expressway JPY 60,000 M ($545 M) Largest deals Largest issuers Citigroup $2,500 M East Nippon Expressway $3,723 M Massachusetts School Building Authority Japan Student Services Organization $1,117 M $1,445 M Japan International Cooperation Agency $829 M Inter-American Investment Corp $1,000 M Largest issuers Citigroup $2,500 M Korea: $7,745 M Massachusetts School Building Authority Largest deals $1,445 M France $49,598 M The Netherlands: $4,477 M Korea Housing Finance Corporation Inter-American Investment Corp $1,000 M Largest deals Largest deals EUR 1,000 M ($1,102 M) Cades EUR 5,000 M ($5,897 M) Nederlandse Waterschapsbank NV Export-Import Bank of Korea EUR 500 M ($592 M) Cades EUR 5,000 M ($5,825 M) EUR 2,000 M ($2,185 M) Korea Housing Finance Corporation Nederlandse Waterschapsbank NV EUR 500 M ($561 M) Unédic EUR 4,000 M ($4,523 M) EUR 1,000 M ($1,192 M) Largest issuers Largest issuers Nederlandse Waterschapsbank NV $912 M USD conversion taken from pricing date Korea Housing Finance Corporation $1,102 M resulting in variation in USD value Cades $22,282 M Largest issuers Export-Import Bank of Korea $1,492 M Unédic $19,378 M Methodology: Deals from supranational entities Nederlandse Waterschapsbank NV $4,477 M Kookmin Bank $1,000 M have not been included in individual countries. Agence Francaise de Developpement $2,000 M 6 www.bonddata.org
Top 5 largest issuing countries in 2020 Sustainable Bonds Insight in the sustainability bond market USA, Netherlands and France are the three biggest issuing countries in the sustainability bond market in 2020. USA $18,631 M Largest deals Alphabet Inc. $5,750 M International Development Association $2,000 M Bank of America $2,000 M Largest issuers Alphabet Inc. $5,750 M International Development Association $4,000 M Bank of America $2,000 M Spain $3,570 M Largest deals Comunidad de Madrid EUR 1,250 M ($1,360 M) France $5,195 M The Netherlands: $5,416 M Japan: $4,963 M Basque Government EUR 600 M ($712 M) Largest deals Largest deals Largest deals Autonomous Community of Galicia EUR 500 M ($585 M) Agence Francaise de Developpement EUR 2,000 M BNG Bank EUR 1,000 M ($1,163 M) Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group JPY 150,000 ($1,413 M) Largest issuers ($2,361 M) Development Bank of Japan EUR ($828 M) BNG Bank $1,000 M Region Ile de France EUR 800 M ($616 M) Tokyo Tatemono JPY 22,000 ($371 M) Comunidad de Madrid $1,648 M BNG Bank $2,000 M Orange EUR 500 M ($593 M) Basque Government $1,268 M Largest issuers Largest issuers Autonomous Community of Galicia $584 M Largest issuers BNG Bank $3,244 M Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group $1,413 M Agence Francaise de Developpement $2,361 M Japan Railway Construction, Transport USD conversion taken from pricing date resulting in variation in USD value Koninklijke Philips NV $1,076 M Region Ile de France $616 M and Technology Agency $958 M Methodology: Deals from supranational entities have not been included in Nederlandse Financierings-Maatschappij voor individual countries. Orange $593 M Ontwikkelingslanden NV - FMO $548 M Development Bank of Japan $828 M www.bonddata.org 7
Sustainable Bonds Insight Supranational issuance Annual supranational issuance of green, social Breakdown of supranational issuance in 2020 and sustainability bonds 90,000 100 180,000 160 80,000 70,000 80 160,000 140 60,000 Volume 60 Value ($M) 50,000 140,000 120 40,000 40 30,000 120,000 20,000 100 20 Value ($M) Volume 10,000 100,000 0 0 80 Green Social Sustainability bonds bonds bonds 80,000 60 Value of deals Volume of deals 60,000 40 Top 5 supranational bonds 2020 40,000 Issuer Value Bond category 20,000 20 €17,000 M European Union Social bond ($19,975.5 M) 0 0 €14,000 M 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 European Union Social bond ($16,605.8 M) €8,500 M European Union Social bond ($10,127 M) Value ($M) Volume of deals IBRD $8,000 M Sustainability bond IBRD $6,000 M Sustainability bond 8 www.bonddata.org
Sustainable Bonds Insight At a crossroads of innovation Sustainable finance continues to drive innovation in sustainable finance solutions for BNP Paribas. Its bankers explain how the events of 2020 are shaping their approach to both the needs of issuers and investors alike BNP Paribas’ 2021 outlook for sustainable EF: What trends are driving sustainable finance activity finance in 2021? CC: We see three trends driving sustainable finance activity Environmental Finance: How is sustainable finance in 2021. Firstly, ahead of COP26, industry leaders are setting tackling the environmental and social challenges of ambitious targets to tackle climate change. Many companies today? are setting their own zero-carbon announcements and science- Constance Chalchat, head based corporate commitments are also ramping up. of company engagement Secondly, with the US re-entry to the Paris Agreement, at BNP Paribas CIB: we foresee an important year ahead and expect we will have We have reached a point a great deal of work to support our clients as they embark of no return where both on the ambitions of the new green deal. This alignment of institutional investors and climate policies towards a low carbon economy is a global corporates realise that phenomenon too, and we are seeing a scaling up of zero- delivering on sustainability is carbon commitments from governments around the world, essential to doing business in including China, the UK, and beyond. Frederic Zorzi, global head of primary markets the 21st century. Finally, greenwashing, inflated claims about sustainability Despite the ongoing credentials and questionable use of green frameworks will be economic and social impacts addressed by more rigor and harmonisation across the industry. climate transition finance has expressed itself via the use of of the Covid-19 pandemic, This will ensure that sustainability-labelled transactions are not proceeds concept with transition bonds, and more recently we are continuing to witness met with investor skepticism and remain credible. with an expansion of KPI-linked products. Both have attracted how investors and corporates a broad demand from investors as it links public environmental, are ramping up commitments Transition as a priority for primary markets social and governance (ESG) strategies for the issuer with towards tackling environ- their funding requirements. Constance Chalchat, head of mental and social challenges, EF: How transformational will climate transition In terms of a rebalancing, we will likely see some issuers company engagement, BNP while recognising the vital finance be? move from traditional financing to transition financing Paribas CIB role finance has to play in a Frederic Zorzi, global head of primary markets at BNP through these approaches. Overall, the objective remains to responsible recovery. This will Paribas: We are facing one of the biggest industrial challenges improve environmental impact and futureproof the business also drive innovation in sustainable finance solutions, further in history. Finance will be needed to support industrials and model towards a progressive strategy that aligns to a low- rebalancing towards solutions with positive impact. institutions through the low-carbon transition. The validity of carbon economy. www.environmental-finance.com 9
Sustainable Bonds Insight EF: How have issuers and investors responded to their sustainable strategies. Furthermore, a milestone moment increasing regulatory support for transition strategies? was when the European Central Bank (ECB) included FZ: Investors increasingly believe in the importance of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) as eligible collateral in their transition strategies. They fully understand the importance to asset purchase programme. This meant the market started align what can be seen as the “brown” sectors with a Paris to recognise SLBs as a viable tool for supporting corporate compliant trajectory. For those issuers and investors wanting transition through finance. to be ahead of the regulatory requirements from the EU We expect this increased momentum on sustainability- taxonomy and specifically, the ‘do no significant harm’ criteria, linked products to result in a deeper focus on ESG data and transition is top of the agenda of investors who are keen to help frameworks that will help align and standardise disclosures and corporates achieve their sustainability goals. reinforce risk management. There is also a need to scale up the development of blended Innovations ahead for capital markets finance structures in collaboration with the public and social sector to mobilise private sector capital toward riskier EF: What market innovations have caught the attention investments, and we expect to see more securitisation solutions of BNP Paribas? or derivatives market for climate risk mitigation and better Delphine Queniart, global head of sustainable allocation of risk. finance & solutions at BNP Paribas Global Markets: Sustainability-linked products are growing alongside the EF: How is BNP Paribas responding to such market Anjuli Pandit, primary markets sustainability manager embedding of science-based targets at a corporate level. These developments? enable issuers to have transparent and credible targets to meet DQ: We learn and grow by meeting our client’s specific needs, The investor perspective which is why knowing our clients is key. We have embedded sustainable finance experts across the entire spectrum of EF: How have investors responded to the events of 2020? products within our Global Markets division to ensure Anjuli Pandit, primary markets sustainability manager, that whatever the client needs, from innovative sustainable BNP Paribas: 2020 was the year of the “greenium” – the capital markets solutions through to sustainable investment clear trend that there is some pricing advantage to issuers opportunities, we will be able to provide them with the best bringing a strong sustainability framework to the market as we solution. BNP Paribas innovates in creating climate-aligned saw multiple issuers price inside their secondary curve. financial instruments and also on solutions delivering social Although there were various market dynamics which impact. contributed to the cheaper pricing, we heard directly from Specifically on climate finance, we are likely to see the many key ESG investors that they believe there is a value to translation of global carbon budgets into sector and region- be placed on ESG data, on ESG frameworks, and on investing specific pathways. Having sector expertise and a holistic directly in the ESG ambitions of an issuer. strategy across sustainable finance is vital to our approach, as it The call for social action also stimulated a more balanced is necessary to scale up transition finance across multiple high look at ESG investing, where social and governance started emission sectors – from steel and transport, to construction to take more prominence both from a products perspective and real estate. The corporate commitments emerging across (e.g social bonds and Covid bonds), but also in informing the these sectors need to be reflected in the frameworks being larger ESG view of the issuer. It is no surprise that as investors created in the sustainable product market, and part of our role start to focus on the big picture ESG story, that they will also is to ensure we can support the integrity, transparency and a begin to align with SLB structures. The beginnings of this Delphine Queniart, global head of sustainable finance & solutions genuine transition roadmap for our clients. market started to grow in the second half of 2020, and the first 10 www.environmental-finance.com
Sustainable Bonds Insight SLBs received very positive responses from investors. We can sectors haven’t yet fully entered this space. On the back of the The result of these three imagine this will be a main focus for 2021 now that the ECB landmark transactions of Eurazeo and EQT last year, we are factors is a greater product can also buy this format (albeit only with an environmental expecting private equity funds to be much more present in and sector diversification. KPI). the SLL market in the near future. We’d also anticipate smaller With new products, size companies to tap into SLL funding, with adapted KPIs such as SLBs, issuers EF: What needs to happen for the sophistication of ESG targeting transition towards a low carbon economy. from resource intensive investment strategies to keep improving? sectors can now access AP: Data will be the key focus on helping investors to develop EF: What are some of the unresolved questions in this the ESG bond market more sophistication on ESG investing. This will be driven space? provided they have through the EU taxonomy and the EU’s Sustainable Finance CM: What we anticipate for the year 2021 is a convergence the right sustainability Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) as investors put market of the SLL with the SLB. Greater transparency and analysis strategy in place. In that pressure on issuers to disclose more information so that they of the two instruments are now being undertaken. Ultimately respect, LafargeHolcim can report against these new regulations. As investors become it will result in a common and integrated approach adapted has opened up the market more accurate and specific in their measurements, through the to the sustainability strategy of our clients and will bring to the cement industry integration of scientific data into the assessment criteria – e.g. increased integrity to the market. with its debut SLB, and carbon metrics and biodiversity impacts, or granular social We already saw an interesting example of this with Tesco, as we expect more carbon data – such as employment security and gender balance – they in October 2020 BNP Paribas supported Tesco to become one intensive sectors to follow Agnès Gourc, co-head, will be better able to identify impactful investing opportunities. of the first UK retailers to establish a SLL which was linked to suit including steel, and sustainable finance markets emissions reduction, renewable energy and food waste. Then energy intensive industries. KPI-linked products in 2021 three months later the bank was joint sustainability structuring SLBs are also well advisor and joint bookrunner on Tesco’s €750 million ($910 adapted to sectors which are less capex intensive. We EF: When do you million) benchmark SLB, which also targeted reduction in the anticipate we will see a range of sectors in that category to tap expect to see more UK retailer’s greenhouse gas emissions. This is a great example the market. sustainability-linked of how a large corporate can utilise both the SLL and SLB to 2020 was also the year of the auto manufacturers coming products come to completely align their financing and environmental strategy, in in size to the green bond market with great results, pricing market? a transparent and scientific way. through their conventional bond curve for the most part, with Cecile Moitry, co- This is the reason why BNP Paribas is taking a very active more players expected from the sector. head, sustainable part in discussions both at the Loan Market Association level, We are seeing the development of sustainable convertible finance markets at but also in connection with International Capital Market bonds coming to the market as well, and we have been active BNP Paribas: By nature, Association (ICMA) dialogues. on several landmark deals including green convertible bonds sustainability-linked loans from EDF and the first ever sustainability-linked convertible (SLLs) are available to a Sector specific outlooks for sustainable bonds for Schneider Electric. wide range of companies finance From an issuer category and geographical perspective, we and sectors as they aim expect a broader range of issuers to come to the ESG bond to improve the overall EF: Which sectors are as yet untapped and have market in the high yield and emerging market spaces which ESG performance of a potential for issuance for SLBs? could open new sectors as well. Also given the notable shift company, whilst not being Agnes Gourc, co-head, sustainable finance markets in climate policy in the US, we can expect increased activity constrained by a specific at BNP Paribas: We are at an interesting crossroad for the in sustainable bonds coming out of issuers in the Americas, Cécile Moitry, co-head, use of proceeds. ESG bond market, led by regulation on the one hand, investor which will be matched by equally high engagement from the sustainable finance markets Nevertheless, some demand on the other hand, and finally product innovation. investor community. www.environmental-finance.com 11
Sustainable Bonds Insight Trends in sustainable bonds issuance and a look ahead to 2021 Moody’s forecasts that sustainable bond issuance will hit a record in 2021. Experts from Moody’s ESG Solutions Group and Moody’s Investors Service outlined to Environmental Finance the key sustainable finance trends they are keeping an eye on for the year ahead G lobal issuance of use of Green Bonds Social Bonds Sustainability Bonds proceeds green, social $700 and sustainability (GSS) bonds – collectively $600 referred to as sustainable bonds – hit record volumes in Annual Issuance ($billions) $500 2020 with $491 billion issued, according to Matt Kuchtyak, assistant vice president, ESG $400 at Moody’s Investors Service. Moody’s expects issuance to $300 reach another new record $650 billion in 2021, a 32% increase Matt Kuchtyak $200 over last year. This total will be comprised of approximately $375 billion of green bonds, $150 $100 billion of social bonds and $125 billion of sustainability bonds. The heightened market focus on coronavirus response efforts $0 drove social bond issuance to new heights in 2020 with issuance 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F reaching $141 billion, up from just $17 billion in 2019. Social Figure 1: Sustainable bonds to hit record $650 billion in 2021 Sources: Moody’s Investors Service, Climate Bonds Initiative, Dealogic bonds were heavily concentrated among issuers responding to the pandemic throughout the year. Sustainability bond volumes also continued to grow, with issuance doubling in 2020 to $79 billion. After the pandemic slowed green bond issuance during the first $375 billion for all of 2021, which would represent 39% growth “Although some of this growth is attributable to financings half of 2020, the segment rallied in the second half of the year, over 2020,” he says. related to the pandemic, there has been greater diversity in bringing full-year volumes to a new annual record of $270 billion. Although the pandemic-related financings that helped propel sustainability bond issuance. We see the broader focus on Moody’s expects this momentum to continue as the economy sustainable bonds volumes will likely wane as 2021 progresses, corporate sustainability as a lasting trend in this segment, which continues to rebound and issuers increasingly pursue debt the pandemic experience has heightened the focus on global will contribute to our forecast of 58% growth in sustainability financing for environmentally friendly projects. environmental and social risks and accelerated many of the trends bonds in 2021 to $125 billion,” says Kuchtyak. “As such, we are anticipating green bonds will total around supporting sustainable finance that were already underway. 12 www.environmental-finance.com
Sustainable Bonds Insight “Thus, we see continued growth in sustainable bond volumes in Labelled bonds often become an effective and efficient way – climate adaptation, clean water, biodiversity restoration, green 2021 and beyond, with more issuers turning to these instruments to start the sustainability dialogue with the market and begin transportation, unemployment reduction – to name just a few to highlight their sustainability plans, investors increasingly building an internal reporting infrastructure necessary to respond examples. demanding labelled sustainable bonds, banks seeking to green to stakeholders’ information needs. their underwriting and lending practices and governments Trend two: The rise of sustainability-linked increasingly aiming to combat climate change.” EF:What has driven the rise of governments and agencies financing Energy transition-related activities will also drive growth within as issuers of these bonds? Is it a short-term reaction to these types of instruments, he adds. the pandemic or a longer-term shift in issuer behaviour? EF: The rise of sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) has “We also expect sustainable bonds to continue to increase as AZ: Governments and agencies are increasingly issuing labelled been a key development for green debt issuance. What a share of total global issuance as they have in recent years. With bonds to raise capital for sustainable development projects more trends are you seeing in this space? this expected growth in sustainable bonds, and expectations that broadly. These issuers are at the forefront of responding to social Benjamin Cliquet, head of global debt volumes will pull back after the pandemic-fuelled and environmental risks presented by climate change, as well as sustainable finance business record year, sustainable bonds may represent between 8% and other key challenges of the 21st century, such as ensuring social development at Moody’s ESG 10% of total global bond issuance in 2021,” he says. cohesiveness in the face of growing income inequality. Solutions Group affiliate,V.E: 2020 In this regard, we provided second party opinion (SPO) was the breakout year for sustainability- Trend one: Increased issuance by ‘firsts’ for a sovereign in The Middle East (Egypt), and the linked instruments. The publication of governments and agencies first sustainable development goal (SDG) bond for Mexico. the Sustainability-Linked Bond Social bond issuance certainly surged in 2020, as the pandemic Principles and the rapid growth of the Environmental Finance: Corporates traditionally have highlighted the need to direct funds towards projects with social SLB market has placed a spotlight on been the main issuers GSS bonds – why do you think they benefits, however this trend did not start with the pandemic. Benjamin Cliquet their potential and attractivity as a were the trailblazers? Furthermore, since Poland issued the first sovereign green sustainable financing approach. Anna Zubets-Anderson, Vice bond in December 2016, more countries have been entering the Amongst others, we provided pioneering SPOs for JetBlue the President, ESG analyst at Moody’s market. Sovereign GSS issuance grew from $10.7 billion in 2017, first airline to deploy a sustainability-linked loan (SLL), and ESG Solutions Group: Corporates to $17.5 billion in 2018 and $21.8 billion in 2019, and reached Schneider’s first sustainability-linked convertible bond. have been the leading sector to issue $40.5 billion in 2020, according to data compiled by Moody’s Their cross-sector appeal is a key attribute. Since there is no labelled bonds since the green label first Investors Service and Environmental Finance. We believe that we need to identify specific projects or to ring-fence the proceeds kicked off the market in 2014. This is will continue to see growth in issuance from governments and related to these instruments, they are innately more accessible to part of the overall trend of growing agencies well beyond the pandemic. more types of issuers. focus on business sustainability, which In addition, because SLLs and SLBs do not focus on current we expect to continue in 2021 and EF: How do you think this will change the landscape for absolute performance but rather on the improvement of it, they beyond. the types of GSS bonds available and the use of proceeds are also more attractive to issuers that may still be in the early days Anna Zubets-Anderson In addition to managing their that are being allocated? of their sustainability journey. corporate social responsibility AZ: We believe that governments will increasingly issue green Given these attributes, in the mid-term, we can reasonably reputations, companies must respond to asset owners and bonds to fund climate mitigation and adaptation projects, as they expect the number of sustainability-linked instruments to match managers who are increasingly focused on the impact of work to combat the effects of climate change and meet their Paris the pace of traditional sustainable bonds and loans. SLLs and environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks on their climate agreement commitments. SLBs will also likely influence more issuers to improve their portfolios. Furthermore, there is a real need to advance strategic That said, compared to corporates, these issuers are also sustainability performance and to set quantified targets. and operational resilience. In response to these pressures, issuers more likely to issue labelled bonds that fund programs that There are two related projections that we would draw attention are shifting how they measure their performance along the ESG are widely diversified, target many different goals and span to. Firstly, these instruments will likely become a key tool for dimensions and how they interact with the capital markets. multiple years. They are likely to cross many eligible categories companies with heavy environmental footprints to showcase www.environmental-finance.com 13
Sustainable Bonds Insight $80 Alongside exposure, it is important to understand a project’s Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East & Africa North America sensitivity to these hazards, as a hydropower development would $70 be more vulnerable to water stress for example, than a toll bridge which would be more disrupted by flooding. This is particularly Quarterly issuance ($billions) $60 important due to the long-life cycles and large capital investments $50 in infrastructure projects. Whether or not a bond focuses explicitly on a resilience project, $40 to ensure that it remains operational and allows the issuer to repay its loan, it is important that the planning phase accounts $30 for changes in extreme conditions and factors in the necessary $20 steps to construct infrastructure that is prepared to withstand these conditions. $10 EF: What part can resilience bonds play here? $0 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 NA: Resilience bonds are a recently developed capital market instrument to raise money for adaptation and resilience projects. Figure 2: Sustainability-linked loan volumes hit record $68 billion in Q4 2020 Sources: Moody’s Investors Service and Dealogic They are a specific type of green bond, and they require that proceeds must be specified for climate resilience projects. The and finance their climate transition strategy for the coming years. Trend three: Climate risk and resilience Climate Bonds Initiative lays out Climate Resilience Principles Thus, these issuances will provide an opportunity for external explaining which activities qualify as resilience activities. stakeholders to have a view on corporate climate trajectories and in the bond markets The need for climate-resilient infrastructure presents significant their alignment with the Paris Agreement. EF: How does physical climate risk fit into the green bond investment opportunity and resilience bonds provide an Secondly, SLLs and SLBs appear to be complementary conversation? important vehicle to finance climate adaptation while fitting into to sustainable bonds and loans: while sustainability-linked Natalie Ambrosio Preudhomme, the investment strategies of many large institutional investors and instruments provide a forward-looking approach of one issuer’s director of communications at providing an attractive investment for those striving to integrate strategy, the more traditional use of proceeds model enables them Moody’s ESG Solutions Group ESG factors into their portfolios. to highlight the concrete investments that will be made to achieve affiliate, Four Twenty Seven: When The first resilience bond was issued by the European Bank the targets. it comes to floods, storms, and extreme for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in 2019. It was a temperatures the past is no longer an five-year bond and was oversubscribed by $200 million showing EF: What are the risks and the practical challenges of accurate representation of what the the appetite for this type of investment. Proving the benefits supporting such engagements? future may hold.When considering any of resilience is challenging because by definition a successful BC: It is not simple for all sectors to identify comparable metrics infrastructure project, it is essential to resilience project is about avoiding impacts on a community or referring to highly material issues. So, the first challenge is of take into consideration a forward- project that may have otherwise occurred during an extreme course for issuers to find the relevant KPI(s) to be included in Natalie Ambrosio looking view of climate projections at event. the mechanism. In addition to this, setting quantified targets for Preudhomme the planned location of these projects. As more resilience bonds are issued, tracked and reported upon the next five, ten years (or even more), and publicly committing This means leveraging the best it will be easier for the market to quantify the value of resilience. on these, can be considered as both risky and complex. To date, at available science to understand what the asset is likely to experience As the frequency of climate change-driven events increases, it least in the SLL market, we have seen that banks have used ESG over the duration of its life cycle, in terms of inundation events, is becoming widely understood that investing to prepare for ratings as an easy solution; enabling them to cover a wide range of water stress, higher average temperatures and other phenomena, extreme events pays off significantly, compared to repeatedly material sustainability issues in one shot. based on its location. repairing and rebuilding after the fact. 14 www.environmental-finance.com
Sustainable Bonds Insight Navigating sustainable debt instruments: from green and social to transition and sustainability-linked bonds For all its flaws, 2020 was a significant year for the sustainable bond market. Not only did the number of labelled issuances markedly increase, the breadth of sustainability topics being addressed also expanded following the release of key new market guidelines. These, most notably, included the Sustainability-Linked Bond Principles (SLBPs) and the Climate Transition Finance (CTF) Handbook, both administered by the International Capital Market Association (ICMA), as well as the Usability Guideline of the upcoming EU Green Bond Standard. Against this backdrop and as we look ahead to 2021, ISS ESG believes these initiatives are opening the door to more sectors for sustainable debt financing and will allow all issuers more flexibility in structuring their commitments and showcasing ambition. Environmental Finance spoke with ISS ESG to discuss the range of options available to issuers and how to select the best approach Environmental Finance: Looking back on 2020, what stands out to you in terms of market developments? Federico Pezzolato, sustainable finance business development manager for EMEA & APAC at ISS Corporate Solutions: The numbers speak for themselves, there has been a notable rise in both social and sustainability bonds. What stands out most prominently in our view, however, was the launch of important new industry guidance and standards: the SLBPs and the CTF Handbook and of course the EU Green Bond Standard moving ever closer to finalisation. Federico Pezzolato, Miguel Cunha, Viola Lutz, Mélanie Comble, Miguel Cunha, sustainable finance business sustainable finance business sustainable finance business head of investor consulting head of second party opinion development manager for Americas at ISS Corporate development manager development manager climate operations Solutions: While we were excited to conduct the first ever second party opinion (SPO) based on the SLBPs for Brazilian EF: How do these new guidelines complement the not put sufficient emphasis on the overall strategy of a company. pulp and paper giant, Suzano, we can also relate to issuers existing option of a use of proceeds issuance? A lack of insight on that point means that at times investors have who feel overwhelmed trying to navigate the rapidly evolving Viola Lutz, head of investor climate consulting at ISS no additional information as to the general direction a company sustainable finance market. The prevailing two questions going ESG: Use of proceed (UoP) bonds introduced a great degree is taking. forward will be, firstly, how issuers can select the best option of transparency on the activities financed through a transaction This concern has been mitigated somewhat by the fact that, to finance their individual sustainability strategy and, secondly, and the environmental and social objectives they address. While in practice, most issuers nowadays give ample information on how these new labelled bond types can help make the real that is correct with respect to the financed projects, a challenge their overall sustainability plans and characteristics; however, economy more sustainable. that has been brought up over the past years is that UoP bonds do the UoP structure following ICMA’s Green Bond Principles www.environmental-finance.com 15
Sustainable Bonds Insight (GBP) lacks a formal requirement in that respect, since the GBPs encourage only issuers to position the bond issuance in their overreaching strategy. Upstream activities COMPANY’S OWN Downstream activities While it has not yet been fully finalised, the EU Green Bond OPERATIONS & ACTIVITIES Standard is addressing this information gap by explicitly asking Green and social projects issuers to provide a rationale for issuance and disclosure on how and activities the financed UoP categories impact their business model. Transitional projects and Focus of Mélanie Comble, head of second party opinion operations activities UoP bonds at ISS ESG: Both the SLBPs and the CTF Handbook confirm the trend of putting a strong emphasis on issuers’ strategies as Potential well. For example, a core focus of SLB issuances is to select focus of environmental, social and governance (ESG) KPIs material to Value chain SLB bonds the issuer’s business model and set associated targets that are ambitious compared with the past performance of the company, but also with sector peers and international targets such as the Figure 1: Potential focus of use of proceeds and sustainability-linked bonds Paris Climate Agreement. The commitment to achieve the targets is tied to the bond’s Let’s take the example of a transport company’s climate MCu: We are already seeing issuances from a broader set of coupon, reinforcing the level of commitment. Interestingly, if ambition and how to make that visible via a sustainable debt sectors, such as the cement and paper and packaging industry. a target is both material and ambitious, it naturally implies the issuance. A UoP bond can highlight projects such as replacing This is crucial. implementation of sustainable actions across a significant share old vehicles with electric ones in the company’s own fleet and Continuing with the example of the cement industry, it of the issuer’s operations and business segments. SLB issuances thus address emissions from its own operation. A SLB bond becomes apparent that, according to commonly used Paris thus have the potential to have broader effects on the way a could allow a company to set a broader objective, targeting Climate Goal scenarios, this industry will be part of the economy company conducts business. emissions along its value-chain as well by supporting efforts in 2050. To achieve the transition to a carbon-neutral world, the In the case of the CTF Handbook, the strategy of an issuer from its contractors to likewise switch to cleaner alternatives. negative environmental impacts of such industries must hence be to shift towards being Paris Climate Goal-aligned takes centre reduced to the lowest level possible. The SLB structure allowed stage. Here again, the company’s impact across all its operations EF: Where does the CTF Handbook fit into all of this? LafargeHolcim, for example, to raise capital tied to a Paris- is impacted and at the core of the transaction. MCo: The CTF Handbook sets out guidelines for issuers aligned commitment of reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) to effectively demonstrate and communicate their transition emissions intensity on its entire business model. SLBs are not EF: How can issuers effectively leverage those new strategy and shows how to issue financing instruments that will only expanding the tool kit of issuers for sustainable financing, guidance documents and financing options? help advance their strategy. The focus is on transition towards they are also allowing new sectors to access sustainable investors VL: Crucially, the new issuance options that the SLBPs and aligning with the Paris Agreement and is of particular relevance and funding opportunities. So, in the coming years, we are the CTF Handbook represent give issuers the opportunity to to issuers that are in difficult to abate sectors. The benefit of the expecting to see a continued opening of the market to a broader address a wider scope of their business instead of focusing just Handbook is that it is flexible in terms of the bond structure group of issuers and the introduction of KPIs covering a wider on specific activities. Figure 1 shows that, with UoP bonds, you apply it to. As such, it can be used by issuers to showcase range of topics. an issuer can predominantly raise funding for the greening of their strategy on climate change both in the context of UoP FP: It is also important to note that, in 2020, UoP bonds were its own products, services and activities portfolio or highlight bonds and SLBs as illustrated in Figure 2. a critical tool for raising capital to address pressing social issues, its social dimension. A SLB structure allows an issuer to also all of which came during an unprecedented global health crisis. address its operations and processes, including upstream and EF: What trends do you see for 2021 based on those new Social bond issuances surged to $140 billion in 2020, up an downstream activities via the selection of appropriate KPIs. options for issuers? astonishing 778% compared with the previous year. UoP bonds 16 www.environmental-finance.com
Sustainable Bonds Insight Applicable guidelines their benefits and improvement options has always been very (cumulative) What is the underlying approach? dynamic in the sustainability bond market. By way of background, ISS Corporate Solutions (ICS) works in Allocating proceeds to green and/or social projects Achieving a forward-looking sustainability target collaboration with ISS ESG, the responsible investment arm of Institutional Shareholder Services, as the distributor of SPOs.While the SPOs are sold and distributed by ICS, the analytical work to prepare and issue SPOs is What is the topical focus? What is the topical focus? performed by ISS ESG. Social & Environmental Social & Environmental Climate Change Case study one: LafargeHolcim (excl. climate) (excl. climate) Why did you decide to issue a sustainability-linked bond? No No Leila Sassi, financing and capital markets manager at Focus on credibility of climate- LafargeHolcim: The issuance of our sustainability-linked bond change related transition? offered us the great opportunity to link our funding with our sustainability strategy particularly on climate change. Beyond Yes the target we have set by 2030 to decrease our CO2 emissions, we wanted to give additional comfort to investors that we are ICMA Transition Finance committed to reach this target by all means. Handbook What was the biggest challenge in the process? LS: Compared to a traditional bond, the sustainability-linked Alignment with EU Green Bond Standard? bond has additional requirements such as a financing framework which follows the guidelines provided by the International No Yes Capital Markets Association. Various teams worked together to make it happen, strengthening cross-functional collaboration ICMA Green, Social Usability Guideline across the company. & Sustainability Bond for EU Green Bond ICMA Sustainability Linked-Bond Principles Principles Standard Use of proceed bond Sustainability-linked bond Case study two: Suzano Why did you decide to issue a sustainability-linked bond? Cristiano Oliveira, sustainability executive manager at Figure 2: Key considerations for defining applicable market guidelines for sustainable debt issuance Suzano: We decided to issue a SLB to further integrate sustainability into our business in order to drive environmental performance where we have the ability to effect positive change. will continue to grow and be a crucial part of the market. range of industrial processes such as in the chemicals sector. Through our issuance, we commit to specific environmental One potential new KPI we may see in 2021 concerns issuances outcomes with skin-in-the game. EF: What topics are you especially curious about in the linked not only to social or environmental indicators, but also to What was the biggest challenge in the process? future of the sustainability debt market? governance metrics. CO: The biggest challenge lies in the fact that it is a new MCo: There are a number of emerging topics we are closely VL: And, of course, any issuances linked to the CTF Handbook. instrument in the market, and the short period of time that there following as we enter the new year. Regarding new technologies, It is a highly relevant guidance document but as with the Green was to structure it. Suzano was only the second company in the we speculate the potential for more issuances related to and Social Bond Principles and the SLBPs, a guideline really world to issue an SLB, and the first to issue according to ICMA’s hydrogen or carbon capture, utilisation and storage as well as comes to life once it is used repeatedly for transactions in the SLB Principles and with a second party opinion, so there was little in terms of reference. Everything we did was new. efforts relating to increasing the emission efficiency in a broader market. Market participants’ critical discussion of issuances, www.environmental-finance.com 17
Sustainable Bonds Insight Annual issuance The green bond market grew modestly in 2020 but total issuance almost doubled as social and sustainability bonds grew rapidly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The average tenor of bonds shortened in 2020 while the average value of bonds issued continued its upward trajectory. 700,000 600 14 600,000 12 500 500,000 10 400 Value ($M) Value ($M) 400,000 8 300 300,000 6 200 200,000 4 100 2 100,000 0 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Green bonds Sustainability bonds Average dollar value ($M) Social bonds Sustainability-linked bonds Average tenor *Average dollar value and tenor excluding Fannie Mae 18 www.bonddata.org
Monthly issuance Sustainable Bonds Insight Monthly issuance value of green, social, sustainability Monthly volume of issuance of green, social, and sustainability-linked bonds in 2020 sustainability and sustainability-linked bonds in 2020 120,000 300 100,000 250 Number of bonds 80,000 200 Value ($M) 60,000 150 40,000 100 20,000 50 0 0 y ry ch ril ay ne ly st r er r r y ry ch ril ay ne ly st r er r r be be be be be be ar ar Ju Ju Ap Ap gu gu ua ua ob ob M M ar ar Ju Ju nu nu em m m em m m br br M Au M Au ct ct ve ce ve ce Ja Ja Fe Fe pt pt O O No No De De Se Se Green bonds Sustainability bonds Green bonds Sustainability bonds Social bonds Sustainability-linked bonds Social bonds Sustainability-linked bonds www.bonddata.org 19
Sustainable Bonds Insight Issuer type Breakdown of issuers of green, social and sustainability bonds Green bonds Social bonds Sustainability bonds Supranational Agency 5% 6.9% Agency Sovereign 16.9% 11.7% Agency Corporate 36% 12.4% Municipal Supranational 6.6% 40.7% Financial Supranational 59% Institution 2020 2020 2020 9.9% Financial Municipal Institution Corporate 10% 16.9% Corporate 42.9% Sovereign 5.2% Sovereign 2.5% 1.9% Municipal Financial Institution 3.2% 12.3% Supranational Supranational Supranational Agency 7.3% 6.4% Agency 11.6% 12.4% Sovereign 19.9% Municipal 4.7% Sovereign 8.3% 1.2% Municipal 5.9% Agency 40.4% Municipal Corporate 2019 2019 19.6% 2019 22.7% Financial Institution 36% Financial Institution Corporate 24.1% 35.5% Corporate Financial Institution 11.6% 32.5% 20 www.bonddata.org
Use of Proceeds Sustainable Bonds Insight Use of proceeds breakdown of bonds issued in 2020 by value Percentage breakdowns Terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity Value ($M) conservation (0.9%); Eco-efficient products production technologies and 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Sustainable management of processes (0.8%); Food security (0.5%); living natural resources (2.2%) General Corporate Purposes (0.2%); Affordable basic infrastructure GB4 – Clean transportation (0.01%); Renewable energy 82,881 (2.5%) GB2 – Pollution Prevention and Control Climate Change Adaptation (0.01%); GB3 – Resource Conservation Green buildings 65,802 (2.6%) and Recycling (0%) Pollution prevention Access to essential services 56,714 and control (2.6%) Renewable Energy (14.9%) Sustainable Water Clean transportation 56,502 Management (3.5%) Affordable housing Green buildings Covid-19 response (4.8%) 52,726 Socioeconomic (11.8%) Employment generation including through the potential effect of SME 48,791 advancement and empowerment (6.1%) Value financing and microfinance Access to Energy efficiency 43,565 Energy Efficiency essential services (7.8%) (10.2%) Socioeconomic advancement and empowerment 33,929 Employment generation including through the potential Affordable housing 26,842 effect of SME financing and Clean Transportation (10.1%) microfinance (8.8%) Covid-19 response Sustainable water management 19,207 (9.5%) Pollution prevention and control 14,582 Food security (0.8%) General Corporate Purposes (0.03%); Eco-efficient products production GB4 – Clean transportation (0.03%); Climate change adaptation 14,574 technologies and processes (1.8%) GB2 – Pollution Prevention and Control Terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity (0.03%); GB3 – Resource Conservation Affordable basic and Recycling (0.06%) infrastructure 13,841 conservation (1.4%) Sustainable management of living Sustainable management of natural resources (3.9%) Renewable Energy (14.3%) living natural resources 12,426 Affordable basic infrastructure (2.4%) Terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity conservation 4,955 Climate Change Adaptation (3.7%) Eco-efficient products production Pollution prevention technologies and processes 4,471 and control (5.1%) Sustainable Water Management (5.6%) Food security 2,710 Affordable housing Volume (3.6%) Green buildings General corporate purposes 1,000 Socioeconomic (27.7%) advancement and empowerment (2.7%) GB4 – Clean transportation 58 Energy Efficiency (10.9%) GB2 – Pollution prevention and control 58 Total: Employment generation including Access to essential services (3.4%) through the potential effect of SME GB3 – Resource conservation $555,860.8M Clean Transportation (7.8%) and recycling 26 financing and microfinance (3%) Covid-19 response (1.7%) www.bonddata.org 21
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