Sustainable Aviation Fuels - Shanghai -2ndJuly 2019 Robert Boyd -IATA, Environment -SAF
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Sustainable Aviation Fuels ISCC – Stakeholder Dialogue Wastes, Resides and Advanced Low Carbon Fuels. Shanghai – 2nd July 2019 Robert Boyd – IATA, Environment - SAF
Aviation and the energy transition
10 years ago the aviation industry established a plan to address its emissions
Anti-aviation on the rise? Following a relative lull in activity 2011- 2015, now starting to see aviation the focus of climate activists again Post-Paris Agreement / IPCC1.5ºC Special Report Mainly a European message… for now • #Flygfritt2019 / #Flygskam / #FlightFree2019 • #Flyingless (academics) • Stay Grounded network • A surge in young activism
The potential financial implications
2100 – 325 = 1775 m/t**
2.5 billion tonnes @ $5/t = $8.9 billion p/a
$40 billion USD* @ $16/t = $28.4 billion p/a
**Estimates for illustration
2100 m/t
325 million
tonnes
Source: ATAG / IATA / ICAO estimates *$16 USD/tonne mid range ICAO carbon offset estimate for illustration purposes
CORSIA
2.5b 2019
tonnes of CO2 will Binding standards Carbon Offsetting and Reduction
be mitigated apply since Scheme for International Aviation
by 2035 1 January 2019
The aim of CORSIA is to cap the net
CO2from aviation to 2020 levels
$40b Scheme is intended to operate from
2021-2035
will be generated 79 States have volunteered for the
in climate finance pilot phase
by 2035
CORSIA: Offsetting or SAF
Each company must
compensate for emissions
Actual emissions
Baseline above its baseline with
emission reductions
achieved elsewhere or
sustainable aviation fuel
Total
CO2
Total
CO2 CORSIA Eligible Fuel (CEF)
SAF or LCAF
Must meet ICAO sustainability criteria
Emissions reduction = 3.16 ∗ ∗ GHG benefit
Emission factor for Jet A-1
The brief history of SAF… some milestones
LCA reduction Key questions
10 years ago 10%-20% Will it hurt the engines?
Will it affect aircraft performance?
How do we certify this?
Is it safe?
5 years ago 30%-40% What policies are needed?
How to verify sustainability?
Can the business case work?
Test flight or Off-take?
Today 60%-80% How do we engage customers?
Strategy – compliance today vs. fuel mix of the future
Where is the money to scale up?
Sustainability - Airlines Sustainability and policy
considerations
June 2017, Cancun - The International Air ICAO Sustainability Criteria: CORSIA
Transport Association (IATA) 73rd Annual
General Meeting (AGM) approved a resolution Regional policy sustainability criteria inc REDII
calling for governments to implement policies
to accelerate the deployment of sustainable
aviation fuels (SAF).
5. Endorses the continuing efforts of its
member airlines and other industry
stakeholders to develop, test and deploy into
commercial operations cost competitive SAF
which conserve an ecological balance by
avoiding the depletion of natural resources, as
an important element of the industry’s overall
approach to address CO2 emissions from
aviation;
SAF: Fact check
• 185,000 commercial flights since 2011
• 5 technical SAF pathways certified & 4 more
pre-2020
• Growing locations offering daily flights
• 2018 SAF volume = approximately 0.01% of
total fuel demand
• A number of major construction
announcements in the past 18 months
• Approximately 6 billion SAF liters in forward
purchase agreement
• More than 40 airlines have developed
experience using SAF
• 13% of major commercial airlines. Is this
enough?Global SAF activity – preparing for the future
Next stop: achieving the tipping point
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