Survey of Large-scale O ce Building Market in Tokyo's 23 Cities

 
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Detailed Market Trend Survey

                                                                                                                                   April 16, 2019

Survey of Large-scale Office Building Market in Tokyo’s 23 Cities

    General Trends in Supply
    – The Shimbashi-Toranomon area, which has seen a major increase in supply volume as well as growth
      in size of properties, is expected to become more competitive due to several large-scale develop-
      ment projects including a new metro station.
    In Tokyo’s 23 cities, there is expected to be abundant supply of large-scale office buildings in 2020 and 2023 while that
      supply will be low in 2021 and 2022. The average over the next 5 years is forecast to be about the same as the historic
      average. In addition, the average amount of floor space provided per property is trending upward. In 2023, the supply
      and the percentage of total supply of large-scale office buildings of 100,000m2 or more are expected to be greatest
      since this report was first released, which shows that properties are growing in size.
    Broken down by area, the three central cities will account for at least 70% of yearly total supply from 2020 through 2023,
      surpassing the historical average. In particular, the Shimbashi-Toranomon area, which has seen a marked increase in
      supply, is expected to become significantly more competitive due to several large-scale development projects.

    General Trends in Demand
    – Demand for office space expected to remain firm
     The percentage of companies that intend to lease more office space is trending upward every year. 45% of companies
       "expect to increase the number of workers." Among the reasons why companies intend to lease new office space,
       positive reasons for moving have been trending upward. For example, "to expand business or to accommodate an
       increase in employees" is the top reason for the sixth consecutive year. There is strong desire among companies to
       expand and demand for office space is forecast to remain firm.

    Vacancy rate
    – Vacancy rate at the end of 2018 falls to 1.9%, the first time in 18 years, since 2000, that it declines to
      the 1% level
     The vacancy rate at the end of 2018 fell to 1.9%, the first time in 18 years, since 2000, that it declined to the 1% level. At
       the end of 2019, it is expected to remain at the low level of 2.0% due to strong demand for office space. At the end of
       2020, it is forecast to rise slightly on account of the large supply.

Since 1986, Mori Building Co., Ltd. (Minato-ku, Tokyo; President & CEO Shingo Tsuji) has regularly conducted market surveys of
supply and demand trends for 10,000m2-class or higher office buildings that were constructed in Tokyo’s 23 Cities since 1986
(hereinafter referred to as “large-scale office buildings”). Through a diverse analysis of the results of this survey, we are also
able to develop forecasts of future office market trends. We are pleased to present you with the results of our survey in the
following report.

“Survey of the Large-scale Office Building Market in Tokyo’s 23 Cities” Framework

    Research area: Tokyo’s 23 Cities
    Research Subject Buildings: Office buildings with gross floor area exceeding 10,000m2 and a construction completion
                                 date of 1986 or later.

      “Supply volume” is calculated based on publicly available information, and on-site and “interview” research undertaken in January and
      February 2019.
      This is a tabulation of gross total office floor space of all large-scale office buildings completed since 1986 (including properties owned
      and used by the same company) but excluding floor space reserved for non-office uses such as retail, residential, hotel, etc.

For more information & inquiries, please contact:
Mr. Shinji Takeda, Mr. Satoshi Hasegawa or Mr. Masayuki Fujimoto, Strategic Planning Unit, Office Business Department,
Mori Building Co., Ltd. Roppongi Hills Mori Tower, 6-10-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-6155 TEL 03-6406-6672
Detailed Market Trend Survey

    1-1             General Trends in Supply Volume

          In 2018, the supply of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 cities was at a high level, surpassing the historical
          average.
        Supply will be low in both 2021 and 2022.
        Supply volume for the next 5 years is expected to be on par with the average of past years.

  The supply of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 cities rose to 1,410,000 m2 in 2018,
  surpassing the historical average of 1,030,000 m2/year. Although there is expected to be abundant supply in 2020 (1,720,000 m2)
  and 2023 (1,320,000 m2), supply is forecast to be low for two consecutive years, 2021 (570,000 m2) and 2022 (500,000 m2). Supply
  volume for the next 5 years will be on par with the average for past years, with an average of 102,000 m2/year. (Fig. 1).

  Figure 1: Large Office Building Supply Trend in Tokyo’s 23 Cities

                                           46   47             Supply – No. of Properties
                    41               44                                                               42
                         40                                                                                 37
                                36
               32                                                                                                                             31          32
                                                       29 30                                    28                     28    26                    29
         24                                                                                                                             25                                                   26    26
                                                                  21                       19                     19               21                           16   19    22     21    19                21
   12                                                                  15    14    16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                12    11    9
                                                                                                      216
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Average from2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                           1,020,000/year
                                                183                                                                                                                              Supply (planned)
                                                                                                                                                          175                                             172
                                                           Supply (actual) (10,000m2)                                                                                            (10,000 )
                                                                                                                       154
                                                                                                                                                                                             141
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           132
                                                                                                125         121
Historic Average                     114 118                119                                                              119                   117
                        108 104                                                                                                                                            109
 1,030,000/year     100                                                99                                                                                                         97               99
                                                      92                                   91                                                                        87
               83                                                                                                                       86    85
                                                                  74               72                             77
                                                                                                                                   65                                                   69
   56    55                                                                                                                                                     58                                              57
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      50
                                                                             36

   ’86 ’87 ’88 ’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23

                                                                             1986 2018                                                                                                              2019 2023
                                                                               Properties 907                                                                                                         Properties 79
                                                                               Gross Floor Space 34,050,000m2                                                                                         Gross Floor Space
                                                                                                                                                                                                      5,090,000m2

  Fig. 2 compares the 5-year forecast for supply data from last year’s survey (released April 27, 2018) with survey results from this year.
  There have been no major changes in overall trends indicated in the supply graph for 2018–2022, which proves the supply is
  developing as predicted. The forecast supply for each year between 2020 and 2022 rose slightly, primarily because of small-scale
  projects of 10,000–20,000 m2 coming to light.

  Figure 2: Comparison of Shifts in Large-scale Office Building Supply Volume with Previous Years
  2018.4 Market Trend Survey                                                                                                       2019.4 Market Trend Survey

                                            Supply – No. of Properties
              27          27                                                                                                            26               26
                                          21                                                                                                                         21

          Supply Volume (10,000m2)                                                                                                                                   172               12           11
                                          168          10                                                                                                                                                             9
              146                                                      6
                                                                                                                                        141
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     132

                          99                               1,010,000/year                                                                                99                      1,020,000/year

                                                       52                                                                                                                              57           50
                                                                       43
                                                                                     Not
                                                                                  announced

              ’18         ’19             ’20          ’21             ’22           ’23                                                ’18              ’19         ’20               ’21          ’22              ’23
Detailed Market Trend Survey

 1-2            Supply Volume Trends by Office Building Scale

   Average floor space per property is trending upward, which indicates office buildings are growing in size.
   In 2023, supply provided by properties of 100,000 m2 or more is expected to account for the largest
      percentage of total supply since this report was first released.

Fig. 3 shows the trend of annual average supply per property. Around 1990, the average supply was 20,000 to 300,000 m2 per
property. However, in recent years, it has become more common for the average supply to exceed 50,000 m2 per property. Even in
2018, the figure was 540,000 m2 per property. The increasing trend for average supply volume per property is clear from the
approximation curve. The conclusion is that the scale of office buildings being supplied is increasing.

Figure 3: Trend in Average Supply per Property

   Average supply per property (10,000 m2 per property)                                                                                5.5                                    5.5                                      5.4
                                                                                                                    5.1                                                                           5.0
 4.7                                                                                       4.5           4.5                                  4.6                                          4.6
                                                                                                  4.2
                                                  3.7                                                                                                                                                   4.6
                                                                   3.6                                                                                     3.4
                  Approximation curve                                                                                            4.0                                    4.0
                                                                                                                                                                                    3.6                          3.7
                                                         3.2              3.2                                              3.3                      3.1
                  2.7 2.8                                                            2.6                                                                          2.7
      2.3 2.5 2.4         2.5 2.5

 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Fig. 4 shows the supply trends shown in Fig. 1 dividing properties into those with gross office floor space of 10,000 m2 or more and
those with less than 10,000 m2. For properties with gross office floor space of 10,000 m2 or more, supply for 2023 (1,200,000 m2) is
expected to be the highest figure since the study began. In 2023, properties with a gross office floor space of 100,000 m2 or more
are expected to account for the largest percentage of supply (91%) since this report was first released.
In addition, properties with gross office floor space of 100,000 m2 accounted for much of the supply both in absolute terms and as
a percent of total supply in 2018 (980,000 m2, 69%). This is forecast to be true in 2020, too (1,180,000 m2, 68%).
The proportion of supply of large-scale office buildings with 100,000 m2 or more is large and it can be said that the amount of floor
space of large-scale office buildings is increasing.

Figure 4: Trend in Supply of Properties with 100,000 m2 or More of Gross Office Floor Space
                                                                                     1986 2018                 100,000 m2 or more                         Less than 100,000 m2
                                                                                     2019 2023                 100,000 m2 or more                         Less than 100,000 m2             Unit(10,000m2)              91
                                                                                                                                                                                          69          68
           Percentage of 100,000 m2 or more (%)
 53                                                                                                                         56
                                                                     51                                                                                            47         49
                                                                                     41    42                                                                                                                    45
                                            40                                                   37           36                                       40
                      24                                23                                                                                        24                                             42
                                                                                                                                                                        37          33
                14         11                                                                                        29
                                 9                                                                                               28                                                                         23
                                                                                                                                       20
                                                  12                                             216 11
      0    0                                                   0            0                                                                0               0

                                            183
                                                                                                                                                       175                                            172

                                                                                                                     154
                                                                                                 137                                                                                      141         54
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       132
                                            111                                            125          121
                                      118              119                                                                 119                    117 105                                                              12
                                114                                                                                                                                                       43
                      108 104                                                                                                                                           109
                100                                                  99                                                                                                       97                 99
                                                  92                                 91                              109
                                                                                                                            52         86    85                    87
           83                                                                              72
                                                             74                                                77
                                                                     48         72                                                                                      68          69
                      82                                91                                             108                       65               89                          50
                                                                                     54                                                                      58
 56   55        86         93 103 118
                                                                                                                                       68
                                                                                                                                                                   46                                 118   57
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  50   120
 27        83
                                                  81
                                                                           36   52
                                                                                                              49
                                                                                                                                             85                                     47    98
                                                             74                                  79                              47
                                            73                                                                              67                         70                                                         27
      55                                                                                                                                                     58                                             43
                                                                     51                    53                        45                                                       47
                                                                           36        38                                                                            41   41                       41
 30                   26                                27                                                    28                                  28                                23                            22
                                                                                                                                                                                                            13

 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Detailed Market Trend Survey

 1-3        Supply Volume Trends by Area

   The supply in the three central cities will exceed 1,000,000 m2 in both 2020 and 2023, greatly surpassing the
     historical average.
   Between 2020 and 2023, at least 70% of supply will be in the three central cities.
     The Shimbashi-Toranomon area, which has seen a marked increase in supply, is expected to become more competitive.

The supply volume of large-scale office space in the three central cities (Chiyoda, Chuo and Minato Cities) over the next 5 years is
expected to average 730,000 m2/year, exceeding the 670,000 m2/year average of the past decade (Figure 5). In particular, supply is
expected to exceed 1,000,000 m2 in 2020 (1,230,000 m2) and 2023 (1,080,000 m2), greatly exceeding the historical average.
The three central cities will account for at least 70% of total supply in each year from 2020 through 2023, surpassing the 10-year
average of 65%.

Figure 5: Shifts in Large-scale Office Building Supply Volume by Area
                                                                                                        2009 2018            Central 3 Cities             Other 20 Cities
                                                                                                        2019 2023            Central 3 Cities             Other 20 Cities Unit (10,000m2)

                                        175
                                                                                                                                        172

             2009 – 2018
             Average Supply                                                                                                              48
             in the Central 3 Cities:                                                                      141
             670,000m2/year             78                                                                                                                                   132

                                                                                                            30
                            117
                                                                                                                                                                              24
                                                                   109

                                                                                 97                                        99
                                                                    31                                                                            2019 – 2023
      86       85                                        87                                                                                       Average Supply
                                                                                 27                                                               in the Central 3 Cities:
                             81                          17                                                                43                     730,000m2/year
      21                                                                                      69

               49                             58                                              17                                       123           57
                                              4                                                            110                                                    50         108
                                        97                                                                                                           16
                                                                                                                                                                  15
                                                                    78
      65                                                 70                      70
                                              54                                              52                           56
                             37                                                                                                                      41
               36                                                                                                                                                 35

      '09      '10           '11        '12   '13        '14        '15          '16          '17           '18           '19           '20         '21           '22        '23

Figure 6: Large-scale Office Building Supply Volume Share by Area
                                                                            2009 2018               Central 3 Cities            Other 20 Cities
                                                                            2019 2023               Central 3 Cities            Other 20 Cities Unit (10,000m2)

                       '09 '18                                 (670,000m2/year)                                            35%(350,000m2/year)

                            '19                     57%(560,000m2/year)                                                43%(430,000m2/year)

                             '20                                 (1,230,000m2/year)                                              28%(480,000m2/year)

                             '21                                   (410,000m2/year)                                               27%(160,000m2/year)

                             '22                                  (350,000m2/year)                                              30%(150,000m2/year)

                             '23                                         (1,080,000m2/year)                                             18%(240,000m2/year)
Detailed Market Trend Survey

Figure 7 shows the five main business areas that Mori Building is focusing on. Figure 8 gives the amount of supply and the
percentages of total supply for each area for the 5-year period 2019–2023. The 5-year average supply in Tokyo’s 23 cities is
5,090,000 m2. These 5 main areas account for 3,670,000 m2, which is 72% of that supply.
Driven by various projects, including massive development projects underway in areas around Toranomon Hills, the Shimbashi-
Toranomon area is the source of the greatest supply (1,380,000 m2, 27%).
Figure 9 gives a comparison of the supply for the period 2014–2018 and the period 2019–2023 for each area. Looking at change in
supply between the two periods, there will be a decline in supply in the Marunouchi Otemachi area (1,330,000 m2 700,000 m2),
which boasts the largest supply over the past 5 years, and the Nihombashi-Yaesu-Kyobashi area (680,000 m2 460,000 m2). On the
other hand, supply will grow in the Shimbashi-Toranomon area (230,000 m2 1,380,000 m2) and the Shibuya area (140,000 m2
390,000 m2). There has been a particularly marked increase in supply in the Shimbashi-Toranomon area. It is projected that the
competitiveness of the whole area will increase dramatically because of the renovation of urban functions and concentration of
companies on account of various major development projects, including the construction of a new metro station.

Figure 7:Main Business Areas of Focus                                                Figure 8:Supply Share by Major Business Areas
                                                                                              for the Years 2019 – 2023

                                                 Marunouchi-
                                                 Otemachi
                                                                 Nihonbashi-                  Outside                                  Shimbashi-
                                                                                                            2018 – 2022
                                                                 Yaesu-                    the top 5 areas                             Toranomon
                                                                 Kyobashi                   1,420,000m2 Total Supply Volume            1,380,000m2
                                                                                                28%
                                                                                                           5,080,000m     2                27%

                                                                                                                 2019 – 2023
                                         Shimbashi-                                                        Total Supply Volume
                                         Toranomon
    Shibuya                                                                                                 5,090,000m2
                                                                                           Shibuya                                       Shinagawa-
                                                                                          390,000m2                                        Tamachi-
                                                                                             8%                                         Hamamatsucho
                                                                                                                                          740,000m2
                               Shinagawa-                                                                                                    14%
                               Tamachi-                                                                          Marunouchi-Otemachi
                               Hamamatsucho                                                                           700,000m2
                                                                                                                         14%

                                                                                           Nihonbashi-
                                                                                          Yaesu-Kyobashi                       Top 5 areas
                                                                                            460,000m2                          Total Supply Volume     3,670,000m2
                                                                                                9%                             Supply Share 72%

Figure 9: Supply Volume by Major Business Areas for the Years 2019 – 2023                                                                              Unit (10,000m2)
                         0          20                40                 60               80               100             120                   140              160

                                          23
  Shimbashi-Toranomon
                                                                                                                                                 138

   Shinagawa-Tamachi-                                               54
       Hamamatsucho                                                                  74

                                                                                                                                           133
  Marunouchi-Otemachi
                                                                                70

     Nihonbashi-Yaesu-                                                         68
             Kyobashi                                       46

                               14
              Shibuya
                                                       39
                                                                                      For each area referenced, the upper bar displays the data for 2014-2018,
                                                                                        and the lower bar displays the data for 2019-2023.
Detailed Market Trend Survey

  2-1           Tenant Office Needs

   Among the companies who intend to lease new office space, "to increase office space" is soaring year by year
     as their main reason.
   For the sixth consecutive year, the number one reason was ‘To Expand Business/To Accommodate an Increase
     in Employees’.
   45% of firms indicated plans to increase employee numbers.

In the following section, we would like to present our views on future demand trends, drawing on the results of the “Survey of
Office Needs in Tokyo’s 23 Cities” (taken in October 2018), a survey conducted by Mori Building Co., Ltd. since 2003 that targets the
top 10,000 companies (based on capital) who have their head office in one of Tokyo’s 23 Cities.
When companies were asked about plans to lease new offices, 27% answered yes. This percentage is increasing year by year (Figure
10). In addition, companies that expect to lease new office were asked if they plan to increase or decrease office space. The
percentage that answered that they plan to increase office space is also increasing year by year (Figure 11). There is strong desire
among companies to expand, which proves demand for office space is forecast to remain firm.

Figure 10: Future Plans to Lease New Office Space                       Figure 11: Plans for Expansion vs. Reduction of Space
                                                                                   over time
                                         Yes,we have plans   No plans                                         Expansion                   No change                  Reduction
        0%                      50%                           100%             0%                      10%                                20%                             30%

2014         20% 413               80% 1,641                             2014       12        240               6       113           3       54
n=2,054                                                                  n=2,054

2015         22% 482                  78% 1,727                          2015        13        285                  6       130           3       65
n=2,209                                                                  n=2,209

2016         22% 446                  78% 1,622                          2016            14     287                     6       114           2        45
n=2,068                                                                  n=2,068

2017         24% 484                  76% 1,551                          2017            14     285                         7     139              3        59
n=2,035                                                                  n=2,035

2018          27% 449                  73% 1,237                         2018                 17      289                             7       113                3   45
n=1,686                                                                  n=1,686

Among the reasons for planning to lease new office space, ‘To Expand Business/ To Accommodate an Increase in Employees’ was
1st for the sixth consecutive year. (Fig. 12). The top five reasons were the same as for the last year, which shows that the trend
toward actively changing offices is continuing.
In addition, "lower rent/lower priced building" fell to the 7th position, making it the second consecutive year it has fallen and the
lowest rank for this reason since the survey was first conducted.

Figure 12: Trends in the Reason for Plans to Lease New Office Space
        2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
No. 1                                                                                               No. 1: To Expand Business / To Accommodate an
                                                                                                           Increase in Employees

No. 2                                                                                               No. 2: Better Location

No. 3                                                                                               No. 3: More Floorspace per Floor

No. 4                                                                                               No. 4: Higher Grade Facilities

No. 5                                                                                               No. 5: Anti-seismic Design

No. 6                                                                                               No. 6: Superior Security

No. 7                                                                                               No. 7: Lower Rent / Lower-Priced Building

No. 8                                                                                               No. 8: Disaster Prevention Systems / Backup Systems
Detailed Market Trend Survey

When asked about the number of employees in the current office compared with last year, 44% of companies answered that it had
‘increased’ (Fig. 13). Subsequently, when asked about the prospects for the future, 45% of companies said they ‘expect an increase’
(Fig. 14). It is clear that the ‘expected increase’ is much greater than the ‘expected decrease’, indicating that the number of
employees is on an upward trend.

Figure 13: Changes to Employee Numbers Over                                                        Figure 14: Outlook for Employee Numbers
           Previous Year

         Decreased greatly                           Increased greatly                                                        Decrease greatly               Increase greatly
             1(24)                                       6(102)                                                                   0(4)                           4(70)

                                                                                                               Decrease slightly
          Slightly                                                                                                 3(58)
         decreased
         11(180)

                                                                           44%                                                                                                      45%

                                                                                                                                                              Increase
                                                       Slightly                                                                No change                       slightly
                                                      increased                                                                51(859)                       41(700)
                         No change                    38(645)
                         44(738)

                                                                          ( )Number of Responses                                                                          ( )Number of Responses

 2-2           Absorption Capacity and Vacancy Rates

The next section examines new demand trends using the concept of “absorption capacity”. As shown in Fig. 14, the concept of
“absorption capacity” is newly occupied floor space for the current year [(vacant floor space at the end of the previous year) +
(newly supplied floor space) – (vacant floor space at the end of the current year)] in all large-scale office buildings as defined in this
survey (over 10,000m2 and completed since 1986).

Figure 14: Concept of New Demand (Absorption Capacity)

(1) When absorption capacity is positive

    Stock at the end of last year              Occupied Floor Space                                Vacant Floor Space

                                                                                             Absorption
                                                                                             Capacity                                    New Supply Volume This Year

    Stock at the end of this year                          Occupied Floor Space                                                    Vacant Floor Space

(2) When absorption capacity is negative

    Stock at the end of last year              Occupied Floor Space                                Vacant Floor Space

                                                                     Absorption
                                                                     Capacity −                                                          New Supply Volume This Year

    Stock at the end of this year     Occupied Floor Space                                                 Vacant Floor Space

      Total Floor Space (gross) is calculated by dividing the effective leasable space ratio for a typical large-scale office building (65.5%) to the leasable floor space (net).
Detailed Market Trend Survey

      The vacancy rate in Tokyo's 23 cities at the end of 2018 fell to 1.9%, the first time in 18 years, since 2000, that it
        declined to the 1% level.
        The vacancy rate at the end of 2019 is forecast to remain low with 2.0% because of firm demand for office space.
        The vacancy rate at the end of 2020 is expected to increase slightly to 2.3% due to the increase in supply.

In Tokyo’s 23 cities in 2018, the vacancy rate fell from 2.6% to 1.9% (Figure 16), the first time it has declined to the 1% level in 18
years, since 2000, because the amount of new floor space absorbed (1,610,000 m2) exceeded the supply (1,410,000 m2). A
breakdown by area reveals that the decline in the vacancy rate in the three central cities drove the overall fall (Figure 17). The
vacancy rate in the three central cities declined by 1.2 percent (3.1%1.9%) while that in the other 20 cities remained unchanged
(1.8%1.8%).

Current demand for office space remains firm. Many companies are giving positive reasons for moving, including "to expand
business or to accommodate an increase in employees," " to move to a better location," and "wanting more floor space per floor."
The percentage of companies that plan "to increase floor space" and "increase in the number of workers" is trending upward year
by year. Although there are concerns about the risk of secondary vacancies*as a result of the increase in supply, it will have a limited
impact due to strong demand. * Vacancies in existing buildings as a result of tenants moving to new buildings

It is also becoming more important to create easy-to-work-in environments because of the recent labor shortage and work-style
reforms. Companies moving to the city center to improve office location and an increase in shared offices and co-working offices
are leading to a decrease in vacancies, particularly in the three central cities.

In 2019, demand is expected to still be firm as in 2018 and the vacancy rate at the end of 2019 is expected to remain low at 2.0%.

Demand in 2020 is forecast to continue to be strong thanks to not only the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics but also Japan’s
continuing gentle economic recovery. On the other hand, the vacancy rate in 2020 is forecast to increase slightly to 2.3%
because of the abundant supply, which will surpass the historical average.

Figure 16: Supply Volume, New Demand (Absorption Capacity) and Vacancy Rate Trends (Tokyo’s 23 Cities)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Projected Values
      Vacancy rate(%)               8.1                                                                                                          7.8
                                                6.7                                                                       6.3            6.9                 6.2
                                                             5.3                                                5.9
                                                                                                   3.8                                                                  4.3         3.9
                        3.6                                                                                                                                                                     3.2
  2.4                                                                        2.8            2.5                                                                                                         2.6                                  2.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1.9      2.0
                 1.2
                                              216 224
      Supply Volume (10,000 )
                                                                                                                                                175                                                                                         172
Absorption Capacity (10,000 )                                                                                                                                                                                         161                         157
                                                                           154 157
                                                           142                                                                                    139                    139                                       141
                                   125                  121                            119 122                                      117                                                          119
                                                                     115                                                                                                       109 114
                                                                                                                                                                  99                           97                              99 96
                   88   91                                                                                     86        85                91                          87                                   85
             72                                                     77                                                                                                                                 69
                                                                                                  65                          69
                             54                                                                                                                             58
      44                                 48
 36                                                                                                    34           31

 '99             '00    '01         '02         '03          '04    '05      '06            '07   '08           '09       '10            '11     '12         '13        '14         '15         '16     '17            '18      '19          '20

Figure 17: Supply Volume, New Demand (Absorption Capacity), and Vacancy Rate Trends by Area
                                                                                                                                                  Central 3 Cities              Other 20 Cities                              Central 3 Cities
                                                                                                                                                  Supply Volume                 Supply Volume (10,000m2)                     Vacancy Rate (%)
                                                                                 9.3                                                              Central 3 Cities              Other 20 Cities                              Other 20 Cities
                                   8.0                       8.4
                                                                                                                                                  New Demand                    New Demand (10,000m2)                        Vacancy Rate (%)
           6.1                                                                                           6.6
                                                                                                                                   5.2                      4.5
                                                                               6.5                       5.9                                                                        3.4                     3.1
           5.6                     5.0                       5.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.9
                                                                                                                                   3.5                      3.6
                                                                                                                                                                                    2.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.8                       1.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            30
                                                                            78
                                                                                                                                         33                                                                                      30
                                                                                       61
                                                                                                                                                       31         39                      48
                                                        81                                                     38             17                                               27
      21                                                                                                                                                                                                          30
                                                                                                    4                                                                                                  17                               131
                              49         19                    70                                                                                                                                                               110
                                                                            97                                                       106
                                                                                       78                                     70                       78         75           70         71
      65                                 50                                                        54          61                                                                                      52         55
                 35           36                        37
                                                               21
           '09     -4              '10                       '11               '12                       '13                       '14                      '15                     '16                     '17                       '18
Detailed Market Trend Survey

Major Large-Scale Office Buildings to be Completed in the Future (includes some completed projects)

                                                      Floor Area
        Name of Project (Name of Building)                                                          Lead Project Developer(s)                              Location
                                                    (m2)     (Tsubo)

 2019

 Shinagawa HEART                                    39,500    11,949   HATO BUS Co., Ltd., Urban Renaissance Agency                              Konan, Minato-ku

 Abema Towers                                       37,900    11,465   Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                   Utagawacho, Shibuya-ku

 Nihonbashi Muromachi Mitsui Tower                 168,000    50,820   Redevelopment Association (Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.)                      Nihonbashi-Muromachi, Chuo-ku

 DaiyaGate Ikebukuro                                49,700    15,034   Seibu Railway Co., Ltd.                                                   Minami-Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku

 Shibuya Solasta                                    47,000    14,218   Dogenzaka 121 (Tokyu Land Corporation)                                    Dogenzaka, Shibuya-ku

 Nittetsu Nihonbashi Building                       27,400     8,289   Nippon Steel Kowa Real Estate Co., Ltd.                                   Chuo-ku, Nihonbashi

 Park 24 Head Office Building                       17,000     5,143   Park 24                                                                   Nishi Gotanda, Shinagawa-ku

 S5 Project                                         19,500     5,899   Yodobashi Holdings                                                        Shinjuku, Shinjuku-ku

 New Japan Sports Association & JOC Hall            19,100     5,778   Japan Sports Association / JOC                                            Kasumigaokamachi, Shinjuku-ku

 The Okura Prestige Tower                          180,700    54,662   Hotel Okura Co., Ltd.                                                     Toranomon, Minato-ku

 Yamato Group Shin-Konan Building Project           19,600     5,929   Yamato Transport                                                          Konan, Minato-ku

 Museum Tower Kyobashi                              41,800    12,645   Nagasaka Sangyo                                                           Kyobashi, Chuo-ku

 Urbannet Uchisaiwaicho Building                    36,100    10,920   NTT Urban Development Corporation                                         Shimbashi, Minato-ku

 Jimbocho Kita Tokyu Building                       11,400     3,449   Tokyu Land Corporation                                                    Misaki-cho, Chiyoda-ku

 Shinjuku South Exit Project                        43,800    13,250   Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd., Nippon Flour Mills Co., Ltd.                 Sendagaya, Shibuya-ku

 Sumitomo Fudosan Akihabara First Bldg.             26,200     7,926   Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                   Sotokanda, Chiyoda-ku

 Sumitomo Fudosan Akihabara Ekimae Bldg.            30,800     9,317   Redevelopment Association Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.         Kanda Neribeicho, Chiyoda-ku

 Sumitomo Fudosan Central Park Tower                60,500    18,301   Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                   Nishi Shinjuku, Shinjiku-ku

 Sumitomo Fudosan Ikebukuro Higashi Building        16,100     4,870   Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                   Higashi Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku

 Udagawacho Area 14-15 Redevelopment Project        63,900    19,330   Parco Co., Ltd., Hulic Co., Ltd.                                          Udagawacho, Shibuya-ku

 WING New Building Expansion                        14,800     4,477   LIXIL                                                                     Oshima, Koto-ku

 Shibuya Fukuras                                    59,000    17,848   Redevelopment Association (Tokyu Land Corporation)                        Dogenzaka, Shibuya-ku

 Konami Creative Center Ginza                       22,500     6,806   Konami Real Estate, Inc.                                                  Ginza, Chuo-ku

 BOATRACE Roppongi                                  13,400     4,054   Boat Race Promotion Association                                           Roppongi, Minato-ku

 Shibuya Scramble Square East Building             181,000    54,753   Tokyu Corp., East Japan Railway Company, Tokyo Metro Co., Ltd.            Shibuya, Shibuya-ku

 Toranomon Hills Business Tower                    173,200    52,393   Redevelopment Association (Mori Building, Nishimatsu Construction         Toranomon, Minato-ku

 2020

 CO MO RE YOTSUYA                                  139,600    42,229   Urban Renaissance Agency, Mitsubishi Estate and others                    Yotsuya, Shinjuku-ku

 Nippon Koei Building                               17,600     5,324   Nippon Koei Co., Ltd.                                                     Koji-machi, Chiyoda-ku

 OH-1 Project                                      358,500   108,446   Mitsui & Co., Ltd., Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd                               Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku

 msb Tamachi Tamachi Station Tower N               152,800    46,222   Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd.                                                       Shibaura, Minato-ku

 Kanda Nishikicho 2-chome Project                   85,400    25,834   Sumitomo Corporation                                                      Kanda Nishikicho, Chiyoda-ku

 Tokyo World Gate Kamiyacho Trust Tower            195,200    59,048   Mori Trust                                                                Toranomon, Minato-ku

 D Tower Nishi Shinjuku                             39,500    11,949   Daiwa House Industry                                                      Nishi Shinjuku, Shinjiku-ku

 Kita Aoyama 2-chome Project                        22,900     6,927   MEC Urban Development No. 6 (Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd.)                 Kita Aoyama, Minato-ku

 Toyosu Bayside Cross Tower A, Tower C             185,800    56,205   Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.                                                  Toyosu, Koto-ku

 Waters Takeshiba                                  102,600    31,037   East Japan Railway Company                                                Kaigan, Minato-ku

 Takeshiba District Development Project,           180,700    54,662   Albero Grande (Tokyu Land Corporation, Kajima Corporation)                Kaigan, Minato-ku
 Architectural Plan

 Hareza Tower                                       68,600    20,752   Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd., The Sankei Building Co., Ltd                    Higashi Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku

 Haneda Airport Former Site Zone 1                  57,400    17,364   Haneda Mirai Specified Purpose Company                                    Haneda Airport, Ota-ku
 Development (Stage 1)

 Kao Sumida Workplace Central Building Expansion    12,600     3,812   Kao Corporation                                                           Bunka, Sumida-ku

 Toranomon Station Area Redevelopment               47,300    14,308   Redevelopment Association (Nomura Real Estate Development, Tokyo Metro)   Toranomon, Minato-ku

 Sumitomo Fudosan Kojimachi Garden Tower            48,000    14,520   Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                   Koji-machi, Chiyoda-ku

 Marunouchi 1-3 Project                            181,000    54,753   Mitsubishi Estate, Mizuho FG, Japanese Bankers Association                Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku

 Marubeni New Head Office Building                  80,600    24,382   Marubeni Corporation                                                      Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku

 Toyosu Bayside Cross Tower B                       72,600    21,962   Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.                                                  Toyosu, Koto-ku
Detailed Market Trend Survey

                                                                Floor Area
         Name of Project (Name of Building)                                                                      Lead Project Developer(s)                                     Location
                                                              (m2)      (Tsubo)

  2021

                                                                                   World Trade Center Building, Kajima Corporation,
  World Trade Center Building, South Building                 95,200      28,798                                                                                     Hamamatsu-cho, Minato-ku
                                                                                   Tokyo Monorail Co., Ltd., East Japan Railway Company

  Ochanomizu Project                                          12,700      3,842    Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                           Yushima, Bunkyo-ku

  Nihonbashi Kabutocho, 7-district Development Plan           39,400     11,919    Heiwa Real Estate Co., Ltd., Yamadane Fudosan, Chibagin Securities Co., Ltd.      Nihonbashi Kabuto-cho, Chuo-ku

  Shibaura 3-chome Project                                    13,000      3,933    Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                           Shibaura, Minato-ku

  Shimbashi Tamuracho Area Redevelopment                    105,600      31,944    Redevelopment Association (Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Urban Development)                  Nishi Shimbashi, Minato-ku

  Toyosu District 4-2 block Development Plan                  88,000     26,620    Shimizu Corporation                                                               Toyosu, Koto-ku

  Tokyo Station Area Tokiwabashi Project, Building A        146,000      44,165    Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd.                                                       Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku

  Kanda Izumicho Project                                      10,300      3,116    Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                                           Kanda Izumi-cho, Chiyoda-ku

  Fukuda Denshi Hongo Office New Construction                 13,700      4,144    Fukuda Denshi Co., Ltd.                                                           Hongo, Bunkyo-ku

  Nippon Express New Head Office Building                     42,600     12,887    Nippon Express                                                                    Kanda Izumi-cho, Chiyoda-ku

  2022

  Yanmar Tokyo Building New Construction                      22,300      6,746    Seirei Kosan Co., Ltd.                                                            Yaesu, Chuo-ku

  Toranomon 2-chome Project District B                        26,200      7,926    Toyo Kaiji Kogyo                                                                  Toranomon, Minato-ku

  Tokyo Station Area Tokiwabashi Project, Building D          30,000      9,075    Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd.                                                       Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku

  Kyodo Printing Head Office Refurbishment                    33,000      9,983    Kyodo Printing                                                                    Koishikawa, Bunkyo-ku

  Shibuya-ku Dogenzaka 2-chome Development Project            41,000     12,403    Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation                                    Dogenzaka, Shibuya-ku

  Kudanminami 1-chome Project                                 68,500     20,721    Nove Grande (Tokyu Land Corporation, Kajima Corporation)                          Kudan Minami, Chiyoda-ku

  Yaesu 2-chome North Redevelopment,                        289,800      87,665    Redevelopment Association (Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.)                              Yaesu, Chuo-ku
  Districts A-1 and A-2

  Nishishinjuku Gochome North Area Disaster Protection                             Disaster Protection District Development Project Association
                                                            134,900      40,807                                                                                      Nishi Shinjuku, Shinjiku-ku
  District Development Project                                                     (Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.)

  Nakano Nichome Area Redevelopment                           96,200     29,101    Redevelopment Association Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                 Nakano, Nakano-ku

  2023

  Toranomon and Azabudai District                           864,100     261,390    Redevelopment Association Mori Building                                           Azabudai, Minato-ku
  Urban Redevelopment Project

  Toranomon 1&2-chome District                              253,100      76,563    Redevelopment Association Mori Building                                           Toranomon, Minato-ku
  Urban Redevelopment Project

  Mita 3&4-chome District Redevelopment Project             225,000      68,063    Redevelopment Association Sumitomo Realty & Development Co., Ltd.                 Mita, Minato-ku

  Toranomon 2-chome District                                181,000      54,753    Urban Renaissance Agency                                                          Toranomon, Minato-ku
  Redevelopment Project Business Building

* The supply volume figure provided by Mori Building is calculated from the actual office floor area, and does not agree with the total floor area figures shown in this chart (which includes retail
  and residence floor areas)
* Projects that are have only been published for the supply financial year are recorded, in principal, as supply for the end of the financial year.
* In the column “Lead Project Developer(s)", the companies and organization in brackets ( ) are major enterprises that are participating as an association member, investor in the special purpose
  company (S.P.C.), specified constructor, partner or joint venture party.
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