Supporting the growth of electric vehicles - January 2019 - National Grid
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Supporting the growth of electric vehicles January 2019
National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles 40,000 There are around 40,000 premature deaths each year in the UK, due to high levels of air pollution. This is equivalent to over 100 preventable deaths every day. 02
Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
The decarbonisation of transport
presents a huge opportunity for
the UK to reduce emissions,
improve air quality and to be a
leader in mobility
Transport became the largest Consumer range anxiety is a With a targeted investment
contributor to the UK’s carbon key blocker to the uptake of approach coupled with a proactive
emissions (27%) in 2016 electric vehicles strategy to planning network
Recent research shows that To overcome consumer range connections, the UK could become
high levels of air pollution, which anxiety and to remove early barriers a global leader in EV’s.
traditional vehicles significantly to EV uptake, a minimal viable This paper calls for a minimal viable
contribute to, is harming the network of ultra-rapid EV charge network of ultra-rapid EV charge
respiratory health of the UK’s points along the strategic road points to be delivered along the
population. This is leading to network, supported by appropriate strategic road network and sets
40,000 premature deaths, and 6 electricity network infrastructure in out how charging hubs could
million sick days each year, costing addition to home, destination, local be delivered quickly and funded
over £6bn to the NHS and £22bn fast and fleet charging, will be vital. efficiently, while stimulating new
to the UK economy. markets, and minimising costs
From concept to assets working
The Government has rightly on the ground, it will take up to to consumers.
recognised this in their case four-years to deliver the required
for change and commitment to infrastructure at sites along the
accelerating the shift to low carbon strategic road network. This makes
transport through the Industrial it imperative for Government to
Strategy1, Clean Growth Strategy2 make timely decisions on the
and Clean Air Strategy3. requirement as well as who would
pay for the required infrastructure,
To make the most of the
to ensure the projections for EV
opportunity to improve air quality,
uptake are not hindered by the lack
reduce emissions and develop
of infrastructure.
one of the best Electric Vehicle
(EV) infrastructure networks in the The decarbonisation of transport
world, the Government needs to presents a huge opportunity
speed up its preparations for the for UK industry in the research,
uptake of EV’s, and provide the development and production of
right environment to support and low carbon vehicles, technologies
encourage the transition. and infrastructure. The Industrial
Strategy sets out an ambition for Consumers will only
It is estimated that EV’s will reach
the UK to be a world leader in
price equivalency with internal
mobility, and recognises that EV’s switch to an EV if there
combustion engine vehicles by the are widespread charging
support new businesses and jobs
mid-2020’s. However, consumers
will only switch to an EV if they are
in the UK’s regions. The strategy points, which are easily
identifies the opportunity to build
confident that it will present minimal
and export new capabilities in
accessible, and can
disruption to their daily lives. charge at appropriate
automotive, energy, technology and
infrastructure sectors globally. speed.
03
National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles
Consumers will only switch to
an EV if there is a widespread
network of charging points,
including along the strategic
road network
A key reason for not purchasing We need an appropriate
an EV is the consumers’ network of electric car chargers
perception of ‘range anxiety’ A network of car chargers, at
This is an anxiety that their battery appropriate speeds to suit the
will run out of charge en route, time spent at each location, will
due to a lack of sufficient charging be vital to ensure we are ready for
points, and that it will take to EV uptake. In addition to home,
long to appropriately charge their destination, local fast and fleet
vehicle. charging, as seen in Fig. 1., a
network of ultra-rapid (120kW to
The most convenient A recent survey, by
350kW) charge points is needed
and cost-effective way to comparethemarket.com, identified
along the strategic road network,
that 66% of motorists do not want
address ‘range anxiety’ to buy an EV or hybrid vehicle as
enabling drivers to charge their
is to locate ultra-rapid vehicles in around 5-10 minutes.
their next car, citing the lack of
charging infrastructure at charging points and upfront cost as While approximately 90% of
the main reasons. A similar number Motorway Service Areas (MSA’s)
existing motorway service (52%) expressed “range anxiety” have some EV chargers on site,
areas with the ability to and worries that they would not which are often described as ‘fast’,
charge a vehicle in the able to travel long distances as they are usually 50kw chargers,
serious deterrents to switching4. which can take more than an hour
time it takes to buy a cup to charge a vehicle.
of coffee. Currently, EV’s and hybrids account
for just over 2% of current car The availability of charging
sales in the UK. Consumers will infrastructure can significantly delay
only switch to an EV if they are the speed of EV adoption in the UK
confident that it will present minimal and materially impact the country’s
disruption to their daily lives. To ability to achieve clean air and
achieve this, the UK will require carbon targets. The Government
widespread charging points, needs to build consumer
which are easily accessible, and confidence through the successful
can charge a vehicle at a speed delivery of infrastructure.
appropriate to the time they
As set out in the National
spend at a given location.
Infrastructure Assessment, and the
However, existing charging
BEIS Committee report ‘Electric
infrastructure is limited in both
Vehicles: Driving the Transition’,
numbers and location5.
National Grid agrees that the most
While charging at home will be a convenient and cost-effective
option for some, around 40% of way to address ‘consumer range
households do not have access to anxiety’ is to locate ultra-rapid
off street parking, leaving millions of charging infrastructure at existing
vehicles requiring adequate facilities MSA’s, with the ability to charge a
to charge elsewhere. vehicle in the time it takes to buy a
cup of coffee.
04
Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
52%
Lack of infrastructure is the
most serious deterrent to over
half of UK drivers, 52% of whom
say that they are worried about
travelling long distances in an
electric vehicle.
Fig. 1. There will be 5 key locations required for electric vehicle charging
Home Destination Local Fast Fleet Motorway
Or on a While doing At petrol station At depot hub At service station,
residential another activity equivalent, visited for fleets on driver routes
street typically e.g. work for the recharge enabling long
overnight journeys
05
National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles
There is a network solution
to overcome consumer
range anxiety by 2025,
if infrastructure delivery
begins in 2019
60%
The electricity networks power connection before 2030 to
operators, together, can allow for the additional numbers
enable a smooth and efficient of charge points required to meet
consumer transition to EVs consumer charging demand.
We have examined the links Given these existing constraints,
of the 165 motorway between the strategic road network significant network upgrades will
likely be needed to accommodate
sites in England and and the electricity transmission
the use of batteries.
network in England and Wales
Wales are within 5km of to understand the minimal viable A minimal viable solution is
the transmission network infrastructure requirement to needed to support the uptake of
infrastructure. overcome consumer range anxiety. EVs in England and Wales
Over the last year, we have studied As shown in Fig. 3. we have
54
the power capacity of the MSA identified an initial 54 ultra-rapid EV
sites, across the strategic road charging sites along the strategic
network, the journeys EV drivers road network, where an upgraded
are likely to take, and how close electricity network connection
they would need to be to an would allow 99% of EV drivers in
We have identified 54 ultra-rapid charger to overcome England and Wales to be within 50
consumer range anxiety. We miles (in any direction) of an ultra-
locations for strategic have also assessed the electricity rapid charging station. This would
ultra rapid charging along network infrastructure required provide drivers with the ability to
the existing motorway to support enough ultra-rapid charge their vehicle in the time it
charge points to provide takes to buy a cup of coffee.
network. confidence to EV drivers and
We have identified a cost-efficient
avoid queues at peak times.
99%
solution for the identified sites,
We have considered the use of which could include a combination
large scale battery solutions, of utilising the existing distribution
often in the form of charging networks, where there is enough
hubs, however the commercial capacity, and directly connecting to
models are still in the early stages the transmission network.
With the network of 54 of development. While solutions
With 60% of the strategic road
sites, 99% of all electric are emerging, they are utilising
network, in England and Wales,
an existing electricity network
vehicle drivers could connection with significant on-
being within 5km to National Grid’s
be within 50 miles, in any existing electricity transmission
site or local renewable energy
network, it makes us well placed to
direction, of an ultra generation.
deliver a cost-efficient infrastructure
rapid charging station It is evident that under any likely solution at many of the MSA sites,
with the ability to charge scenario of EV uptake, due to with the remainder better served by
existing power constraints, most a DNO solution.
in the time it takes to MSA’s will require a reinforced
buy a cup of coffee.
06
Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
Fig. 2. Electricity Transmission connection timeline
2023
2022
Years
2021
2020
2019
Pre Customer Elec. Elec. Tx Customer Elec. Tx Planning Procure Asset build
application data Tx data design and review and planning consent assets
meeting collection processed offer sign offer
Of the MSA sites which prove Fig. 3. The 54 identified sites will allow 99.6% of drivers to be
most economical for a direct within 50 miles of an ultra rapid charger.
transmission connection, 90%
could be supplied from existing
National Grid substations,
reducing the requirement for
wider reinforcement works and
therefore minimising the cost of
delivering this much needed EV
infrastructure. This also aligns with
the energy regulators ambitions to
ensure networks companies make
economic and efficient use of their
existing infrastructure.
However, as set out in Fig. 2.
from concept to assets working
on the ground, and dependent
on planning constraints, it will
take up to four-years to deliver
the required infrastructure at each
MSA site. This makes it imperative
for Government to make timely
decisions on the requirement
of infrastructure.
Recommendation:
To ensure that consumer uptake
of EVs is not hindered, and using
powers under the Automated
and Electric Vehicle Act, the
Government should designate, in
2019, which MSA sites should be
part of a minimal viable network
of ultra-rapid chargers, to ensure
there is adequate time to deliver
the required electricity network
infrastructure, and achieve
EV targets.
07
National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles
Building a network of ultra-
rapid EV chargepoints along
the strategic road network is
imperative to the success of
the EV industry in the UK
With the right conditions, the UK with many struggling to make the
has an opportunity to become a case for the costs of the electricity
global leader in electric vehicles network infrastructure, especially
However, for this to be a reality, a ahead of full utilisation. This is a
network of ultra-rapid EV charge market failure.
points will need to be delivered by A truly national solution is
2025 - the time at which vehicle needed to avoid air inequality
cost parity is reached - to ensure
If Government want to realise
infrastructure does not become an
the ambitious commitments to
A network of ultra-rapid unintended barrier to consumer
improving conditions for all UK
EV charge points will EV uptake.
citizens, irrespective of location,
need to be delivered by The infrastructure must allow EV there is a need for intervention
the time at which vehicle drivers to undertake out of pattern to enable the market to mature
and long distance journeys, quicker than it otherwise would. If
cost parity is predicted delivering charging times similar the market matures, the utilisation
to be reached, to ensure to those experienced for refueling risk will reduce and make it more
infrastructure is not the existing internal combustion commercially viable for private
engine vehicles. investment to deliver ultra-rapid
remaining barrier to charging infrastructure across
consumer EV uptake. While initially fewer chargers will be
the UK.
required, until the market develops,
the most economic infrastructure A market-led approach, without the
solution is to plan for a future where appropriate government intervention,
there is no liquid fuel. This would will result in a postcode lottery with
mean ensuring that there is enough many low wealth and rural areas left
electricity capacity to enable more with an insufficient network of rapid
ultra-rapid chargers to be added charging infrastructure. This will be
as and when necessary to meet a serious deterrent for potential EV
the future EV demand, without the drivers. We need to ensure that all
need for further disruptive and costly families across the UK have an equal
construction work to change the opportunity to reap the technology
network connection. and air quality benefits that EV’s
will bring. If left to the market
If there is an inadequate number of
alone, sufficient charging capacity
EV charge points, queues will form
will likely only be delivered at the
potentially causing the market to stall
high utilisation / low costs sites
reinforcing consumers’ perception of
highlighted in Fig.4. with a maximum
range anxiety.
of only 16 sites having potential for
While significant investment has the market to deliver.
been made into UK charging
infrastructure, the existing market
structures at MSA’s are complex. Recommendation:
In order to successfully leverage As set out in the National
private investment, the market needs Infrastructure Assessment6 and the
certainty in both affordable cost of BEIS Committee Report “Electric
infrastructure and EV utilisation rates. Vehicles: Driving the Transition”5,
We know from talking to prospective we believe the Government should
market participants that they do not prioritise the rollout of a “national
currently have certainty on either, network of ultra-rapid EV chargers”.
08
Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
A market-led approach, without the appropriate
government intervention, will result in an
infrastructure postcode lottery, and an unequal
distribution of chargers across the UK,
specifically in rural areas.
Fig. 4. National Grid analysis highlighting cost of delivering electricity
network capacity at strategic MSA sites vs. traffic flow.
30 14
25 12
10
20
Car traffic (k/day)
Solution cost (m)
8
15
6
10
4
5 2
0 0
Solution cost (m) Car traffic (k/day)
09
National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles
We are developing funding
options which minimise the cost
to consumers, while enabling the
future market to mature
For most energy transmission With the creation of a funding As set out in Fig. 6, if we assume
network infrastructure projects, pool, which would see market that the actual construction start
National Grid will fund the initial participants coming forward to date is phased over five years from
upfront capital investment for the pay for capacity access to each 2022, to deliver the 54 MSA sites,
required infrastructure, recovering site, the market would begin to the maximum annual payment
the costs over the lifetime of the contribute towards the annual will be £50m, in year five, with the
asset, typically 40 years, through costs, reducing the overall amount average annual connection fee
an annual connection charge. Government pays in the long-term. across the project being c.£20m.
While we appreciate the challenges
We recognise that, in addition to As an example of how the market
to justify any Government spend,
the market funding challenges, could participate in practice,
it serves to highlight the need
there are also concerns with energy the capacity price could be
for interdepartmental, long term
bill payers funding EV transport cost reflective, with payment
thinking.
infrastructure, especially in the early proportionate to the capacity
adoption years. required i.e. a participant requesting We recognise the current charging
a fifth of the site capacity, where a method for DNO’s does not
A strategic approach is required
site has annual connection charge enable them to recover costs
to fund a network of ultra-rapid
of £300k, would pay £60k/yr. into over the lifetime of their assets.
chargers
the funding pool. We understand however that
While there are likely several there is work ongoing to align
options for how to fund a strategic As the market matures, and
the distribution and transmission
network of ultra-rapid chargers, the utilisation rates increase,
charging regimes. This change
we believe one of the swiftest and market participants will erode
would ensure that the suggested
simplest methods is using the the Government payments, as
funding mechanism would work
existing network charging regime, depicted in Fig. 5. While this will
for both transmission and
which requires minimal legislative likely happen faster in some areas
distribution networks.
intervention from Government. than others, especially in areas
of high utilisation, this model will
To remove the initial market entry ensure that the country is served
barriers and ensure the timely Recommendation:
as a whole. Those areas that are
delivery of future-proofed network To ensure the infrastructure can
not as commercially viable to the
infrastructure, Government would be delivered in a timely manner,
market, such as the low wealth and
be required to underwrite the as a priority, the Government
rural areas, will also have access to
overall construction cost (c. £0.8- and Regulator should agree in
sufficient infrastructure to overcome
1bn), and pay the early years’ 2019 who should pay for MSA
consumer range anxiety.
annual connection charges. reinforcement and other critical
EV infrastructure, and agree an
appropriate funding mechanism.
10Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
Fig. 5. Indicative market share
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 15
Government Market participant
Fig. 6. Annual electricity connection costs for 54 MSA sites
70
60
Annual connection costs
50
Present value (£m)
40
30
20
10
0
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
Financial year
Connection costs
11National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles Recommendations Recommendation 1 As set out in the National Infrastructure Assessment and the BEIS Committee report ‘Electric Vehicles: Driving the Transition’, we believe the Government should prioritise the rollout of a ‘national network of ultra-rapid EV chargers’. Recommendation 2 To ensure that consumer uptake of EVs is not hindered, and using powers under the Automated and Electric Vehicle Act, the Government should designate, in 2019, which MSA sites should be part of a minimal viable network of ultra-rapid chargers, to ensure there is adequate time to deliver the required electricity network infrastructure, and ensure EV targets are achieved. Recommendation 3 To ensure the infrastructure can be delivered in a timely manner, as a priority, the Government and Regulator should agree in 2019 who should pay for MSA reinforcement and other critical EV infrastructure, and agree an appropriate funding mechanism to deliver the necessary investment, in areas where the market won’t deliver. 12
Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
13National Grid | January 2019 Supporting the growth of electric vehicles
References
1. HM Government (BEIS), 4. Comparethemarket.com,
Industrial Strategy: Building a “16 million motorists say they
Britain fit for the Future, (2017) can’t afford to drive electric
cars”, (2018)
2. HM Government (BEIS), The
Clean Growth Strategy: 5 BEIS, Electric Vehicles:
Leading the way to a low carbon Driving the Transition, (2018)
future, (2017)
6. National Infrastructure
3. DEFRA, Clean Air Strategy 2018, Commission,
(2018) National Infrastructure
Assessment, (2018)
7. HM Government,
AEV Act, (2018)
If you require any further information, please contact;
Pete Abson
peter.abson@nationalgrid.com
Graeme Cooper
graeme.cooper@nationalgrid.com
14Supporting the growth of electric vehicles National Grid | January 2019
15National Grid plc National Grid House Warwick Technology Park Gallows Hill Warwick CV34 6DA United Kingdom Registered in England and Wales No. 4031152 nationalgrid.com
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