STRATEGIC FORESIGHT - 6-10 AUGUST 2018 - School of International Futures
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H AR TW EL L H OUSE, B UC K ING H AMSH IR E , U K #SOIF2018
6–10 AUGUST 2018
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT
SU M M E R R E T R E AT PR OG R AM M E
SUMMER RETREAT IN STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 6–1 0 AUGU ST 201 8 HARTWELL HOUSE, BUCKINGHAMSHIRE, UK
WELCOME TO SOIF2018
It is with great pleasure This is our seventh flagship retreat and we see each year as a renewal
that we welcome you to – an opportunity to innovate and to build on the successes of previous
retreats. We have created the programme with care: nurturing the different
SOIF’s summer retreat
elements around participants’ needs, new issues arising in the foresight
on Strategic foresight. field, our desire to hear inspiring speakers, to build our personal practice as
a community – and a good dose of synchronicity.
For 2018, we were encouraged by our guest faculty, Roger Dennis, to add
moments of delight into the programme to inspire and boost creativity –
including through performances and insights from poet and author Betty
Sue Flowers, writer and educator Christian Foley, chorister and musician
Reuben Thomas, artist and community story-teller Carlotta Allum and John
Furey, a natural philosopher of time.
On Wednesday, we are also delighted to host the inaugural Award
Ceremony for the Joseph Jaworski Next Generation Foresight Practitioners
Award. We celebrate innovative practice from young and new practitioners.
We look forward to getting to know you during the week, exploring your
motivations, hearing about your experiences, and sharing with you our
approach to foresight, both as a theory and as a way of understanding
and shaping the future. We design this week and hold the space to help
you achieve three results: to become better users and commissioners of
foresight; to return to your work ready to build future-ready organisations;
and to learn from each other and support each other as part of a global
foresight community (see the learning outcomes on page 5).
The process, methodology and techniques we’ll introduce – with the help
of our guest faculty – are ones we have found achieve results in a range
of organisations and countries. But foresight is an art as well as a science,
which together make a craft. And it is the practical application of this craft
that is a core design feature of our retreats. This year, our live Challenge
Client asks you to grapple with exploring the future of a changing China
from an African perspective.
We will also explore two additional themes: the future of infrastructure
and risk, and the links between foresight and Theory U and how to achieve
personal and professional transformation.
We hope you enjoy the next few days! We’ve left time in the programme
for walks in the grounds, chats on the sofa, even early-morning yoga and
mindfulness... The whole environment – in and out of the formal sessions
– is designed to be a reflective space for learning and debate that is both
enjoyable as well as fruitful for your future plans.
Thank you for coming to SOIF2018 with an open mind, and heart – we hope
the relationships you make this week will be a first step in a long journey in
building a better future together.
The SOIF Team
1
WHO WHAT
WE ARE WE DO
SOIF helps policy-makers, business leaders and communities SOIF exists to help organisations
make strategic choices, manage risk and become future- use foresight to impact decision-
ready. Our foresight work focuses on the transmission of making today. Our work focuses on
insights about the future into decisions today. We design for the transmission of insights about
impact, complexity and participation. the future into decisions today.
Come and learn with us, translate
We have worked to apply foresight and strategy at the foresight into strategic insights, and
highest levels of government, private and NGO sectors. As build a future-focused organisation
foresight and strategy experts, we have introduced strategic through our educational, project
foresight to over 600 senior leaders from over 50 countries and advisory services
and led projects in countries as varied as Switzerland, South
Korea, Oman, Tunisia, Chile and Russia. We help you to think differently –
and confidently – about the future:
We have advised national governments and United Nations to position your organisation
on the use of foresight and strategy and have worked with to take advantage of new
organisations around the world to build their capacity, opportunities while protecting you
develop insight and support their long-term sustainability. against shocks and surprises.
We advocate for the use of foresight and the need to put
people at the heart of the future. Gain insight about your future
environment: spot upcoming
trends and issues, risks and
opportunities, and the new players
in your field.
Build your capability: strengthen
the skills of your senior decision-
makers and staff, so they can
create and lead future-ready
organizations. These skills can
be accredited by the ILM, the
UK’s leading specialist provider
in leadership and management
qualifications.
Access latest expert advice:
inform your good practice through
our research, innovation and
thought leadership.
Connect and mobilize with
others: draw upon, and support
in turn, our wider community of
practice and networks of change-
makers to co-create a better future.
2
OUR SERVICES
GAIN INSIGHT OUR CLIENTS
• Explore the implications of themes or issues coming up on your radar SOIF works with industry, public
and third sector organisations from
• Conduct a strategic review and navigate possibilities, scenarios and options
around the world. We have trained
• Rapid horizon scans or deep dives and advised more than 600 policy-
makers and leaders.
• Assess and manage risk – develop mitigation and response plans
• Projects to drive innovation, build sector vision or engage Clients include British Council, BP,
your community IATA, Shell Global, Metropolitan
Education Trust in Nigeria,
Malaysian Industry-Government
Group for High Technology, Mott
BUILD CAPABILITY
MacDonald. NATO, Overseas
• Foresight audit to understand the ‘future-preparedness’ of your team Development Institute, Royal
or organisation Society, Save the Children UK,
STEPI Korea, Swedish Defence
• Support integrating foresight into strategy development, policy or risk
University, United Nations
management, or help to set up or enhance an existing function
Economic Commission for Latin
• Skills development, mentoring and training for individual, teams and America and the Caribbean, United
organisations Nations Development Programme,
UNDOCO and UN-Habitat
• Tailored training programmes and modules to build your capability at
programmes, UK Cabinet Office,
a strategic, operational or executive level
US Office of the Secretary of
• Demonstrate your skills as an accredited foresight practitioner Defence and US State Department.
through our Strategic Foresight Programme, endorsed by the ILM
• Custom retreat and events, tincluding agenda design, speaker
engagements and strategic/senior team facilitation
ACCESS EXPERT ADVICE
• Full or ½–day strategy sessions for board, C-suite or senior
management in private companies, industry bodies & NGOs
• Government experts – championing the growing use of foresight in
governments including the UK and internationally
• Promoting an integration and innovation agenda: evidence and
comparative insights with new global practice in strategic planning,
open government, democracy and SDGs (especially goal 16 “effective
accountable and inclusive institutions”).
• Driving new practice – we innovate with foresight methodology for
impact, collect case studies, and cross-pollinate practice from different
domains (e.g. actuary, intelligence, design thinking, ecology)
CONNECT AND MOBILISE
• Our Foresight retreats – A unique combination of capacity building,
networking and coalition building, and conference
• Join our international network of over 600 alumni and 100 collaborators
and access our online platform (SOIFSpace) to make new contacts
• Benefit from peer-to-peer mentoring and networking opportunities
including SOIF Alumni meetings and webinars
3
YOUR LEARNING JOURNEY
AND THE SOIF FOUR STAGES
Our retreats are curated and YOUR LEARNING JOURNEY THE FOUR STAGES
designed to ensure that our
Our foresight work focuses on the For foresight to have impact, it
participants receive the maximum
transmission of insights about the needs to be conceived from the
benefit of their time at the
future into decisions today. SOIF’s outset with the decision-maker,
retreat. We design the week as
core values are to design strategic policy-maker, or other client of
a “Learning Journey” to support
foresight experiences for impact, the work in mind. SOIF’s practical
your personal development. We
purpose and participation. four-stage approach – Scoping,
build in opportunities to learn and
Ordering uncertainty, Implications
reflect during the week, and teach
The foresight journey is one that and Integrating Futures – has been
a practical four-stage approach
we take as individuals as well developed to ensure that our clients
to foresight that provides the
as together in organisations. as well as new foresight users are
framework for you to learn the
Effective foresight requires us all to aware of the essential components
principles, art and science of
continually explore the future and of successful foresight work.
foresight.
to expand our practice, learning
from each other and sharing The four stages are set out
As you progress through the week
insights across disciplines. graphically opposite. You will also
there are a core set of Learning
learn and practise a number of
Outcomes that we address through
It is a space for participants tools during the week.
the faculty and live challenge
to build the skills they need to
sessions, and supported by
understand change and disruption
our speakers.
and how to create future-ready
organisations in an uncertain and
Your primer provides additional
increasingly volatile world. We
information on the four-stage
bring together our values, seven
approach and some background
principles, four-stage process, and
to foresight.
three themes to this end.
4
LEARNING OUTCOMES • Be able to describe and apply • Have regularly reflected
SOIF’s four stage process for on their personal learning
By the end of the Retreat, with foresight; principles; and the journey throughout the week
the aid of faculty sessions, panel values of designing foresight and committed to on-going
sessions, personal notes, and other for participation, purpose and development actions that
learning resources, participants will: impact support their current work
• Through panel discussions • Have developed their own
• Have learned about the theory
and debates with expert foresight practice, and know
and application of strategic
practitioners and exploration of how to build their capability
foresight
case-studies, better understand over time, including through
• Be confident in the design and the art of foresight, and have engagement with the wider
tailoring of their approach, critically evaluated how the community of interest
selecting and applying experiences of others can be
• Have identified and committed
appropriate tools, to ensure applied to their organisation’s
to a personal foresight project,
the impact of their work and and their personal practice of
designed to apply Retreat
make a real difference to their foresight
learning to practice and to
organisations
• Through the live policy influence wider practice within
• Have the vocabulary and challenge, have built critical their organisation.
understanding to design and understanding, confidence
facilitate effective conversations and practical experience in the
about the future foresight craft
5
OUR PRINCIPLES 3. Foresight as art,
science and craft
SOIF sits at the place where
Foresight is both art and
theory and practice meet. Our
science and together these
principles are informed by our
make the craft of foresight.
experience implementing and
To achieve impact requires
researching foresight practice in
both a good understanding
over fifty countries. We also draw
of tools and techniques and
on insights from our network and
the judgement to use them
from conversations with ministers,
effectively.
policy-makers, civil servants,
front-line staff, foresight experts 4. Design foresight as a
and consultants. four-stage journey
This journey acts as a scaffold
These principles shape the for our work, moving from
design of our retreats and form Scoping through Ordering
the foundation of our training, and Implications to
advisory, project and advocacy Integrating Futures.
work. They reflect our belief in
5. Understand the context first,
foresight as a holistic approach
then choose the tools and
to empower people to create a
methods for impact.
better world for this and future
Tools and method are
generations.
important, but are influenced
and guided by culture, time,
1. Collective reflection on the
topic resources, and purpose.
future enables resilience and
The tools used within the four-
empowerment
stage journey maximise impact
The act of reflecting on the
around the purpose, while
future collectively – and the
staying within resource and
capability to do so – is valuable
other constraints.
for all communities and countries
at all times. It is not a luxury; it is 6. Mobilise left-brain and
a necessity. It helps build vision, right-brain approaches
resilience and empowerment in in our personal and
an uncertain world. organizational journey
Engaging with the future
2. Focus on the decision and
involves left-brain and right-
decision-maker, but unlock
brain approaches. We need
transformation with wide
to be mindful of our own
participation
personal practice when doing
Any effective foresight process
so, striving to make sense of
must be designed to benefit
things in an uncertain world
the decision and decision-
and paying attention to our
maker and use insights
cognitive biases. What we learn
about the future to create
inspires us to build future-alert
change in the world today.
organisations and communities.
But it is essential to confront
different views, engage the 7. We are part of a wider
periphery and ensure broad community of interest
participation, particularly by and advocacy
those not usually listened to. We learn from each other
This is the key to unlocking and support each other with
the transformative potential examples of what we have
of tomorrow, empowering achieved.
citizens, and holding today’s
decision-makers accountable
to future generations.
6
JOSEPH JAWORSKI NEXT new geographies, with a growing In total we awarded 13 special
GENERATION FORESIGHT foresight practice in Africa and awards to recognise amazing
PRACTITIONERS AWARD Asia. As well as second and third contributions to particular sectors
career practitioners entering the or geographies. All special
We are delighted to be holding
field from other domains, with awardees will be supported
the first awards ceremony
fresh ideas and approaches from personally and professionally
for the Joseph Jaworski
across civil society, business and including mentoring with top
Next Generation Foresight
creative industries. international foresight thinkers
Practitioners Award on
and practitioners, meetups, and
Wednesday night.
The Award aims to identify these training webinars.
innovators and support them in
The award is a new annual award
their endeavours and support them What next… a first step in
recognising the next generation’s
both personally and professionally. establishing a new Sensing
endeavours in shaping the future.
Network. Our long-term vision
We received 76 applications
The winners: we are delighted to for the award is to create a global
for the award from over 40
welcome three of our awardees sensing-network of future-alert
nationalities from Azerbaijan to
to to this years’ retreat: Pupul activists and connect them to form
Zambia and from all six continents.
Bisht (Main Award), Bunmi Alijore a Sensing Network.
(Runner up and Africa Special
Why is the award needed? The
Award) and Elliot Brennan This will provide a platform to
world is changing and as it does
(Oceania Special Award). showcase innovative practice
we need new sources of inspiration
from around the world.
and innovation. Change will come
As the Main Award winner Pupul
from many arenas and peoples. It
will receive $25k funding to
will come from a new generation,
develop a new foresight initiative
millennials, with new aspirations
as well as other support to realise
and values. But equally from
the endeavour.
7THEMES AND LIVE CHALLENGE At SOIF2018 we explore three themes: a policy issue, a methodological question, and a geographic “Live challenge” focused on the Future of China. Policy Issue: Infrastructure and risk The infrastructure that surrounds us links our past, present and future. Whether transportation, energy or telecommunications, our legacy infrastructure shapes our life in the present and, through the choices we make now, may also constrain our futures. New infrastructure can be built to help us adapt in the face of uncertainty, emerging technology and a disruptive environment – or it can lock us in and leave us vulnerable to risk. Major infrastructure projects often span borders and decades, with both private and public benefits. Faced with the need to transform our infrastructure to meet the challenges of the Global Goals, this is a fascinating lens through which to understand resilience and long-term decision-making. Methodological Question: How to use Theory U to unleash the transformative potential of Strategic Foresight We will take a look at how Synchronicity and Theory U can be harnessed to help drive personal and organisational transformation. With the help of our speakers we will explore different aspects of this issue, including: how do we lead from the future as it emerges; how can we presence into the future; what leadership capacities are needed? The Future of China We will be joined by Moeletsi Mbeki Deputy Chairperson of The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA); who will set participants a foresight challenge looking at the future of a changing China and the relationship between China and Africa. 8
PROGRAMME
DAY 1 MONDAY 6 AUGUST
WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS
Getting to know each other, our projects and the programme
1300 – 1430 Participants arrive, check-in and buffet lunch available
1500 – 1600 1. Welcome and introductions – “Check in”
Cat Tully Founder and Managing Director, School of International Futures
1600 – 1700 2. Video Keynote “Synchronicity and using Theory U to unleash the transformative
potential of Strategic Foresight”
Joseph Jaworski Chairman of Generon International In conversation with Susan Taylor CEO,
Generon International
Respondent: Betty Sue Flowers Author “The Power of Myth” and former editor for Global
Scenarios for Shell International (1992 to 2013)
Chair: Peter Glenday Director – Programmes and Research, School of International Futures
1700 Tea/Coffee
1730 – 1800 3. Faculty Session – Introduction to the Programme, our learning objectives and design
principles for learning about strategic foresight
Cat Tully in conversation with Betty Sue Flowers
1800 – 1900 4. Live Challenge Exercise Introduction to the Live Challenge.
Our policy client introduces our challenge for the week
Moeletsi Mbeki Deputy Chairperson of The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)
Respondent: Kerry Brown Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China
Institute, King’s College, London
Chair: Peter Glenday
1900 – 1910 5. Closing session – “Check out” Cat Tully
1930 Reception drinks followed by dinner at 8pm
Moment of Delight: “The art of the storyteller.” Lifelong writer and poet Betty-Sue casts
some light into the creative corners of our mind, and the role of narrative in foresight
Betty Sue Flowers
9PROGRAMME
DAY 2 TUESDAY 7 AUGUST
STAGES I TO II – SCOPING TO ORDERING
Starting the Live Challenge together – What the policy maker needs and how foresight can meet
that need – principles of futures thinking and drivers of change – participants’ experiences
0700 – 0745 Yoga session (Garden or James Wyatt room)
0730 – 0900 Breakfast
0900 – 0915 6. Opening Session “Check in” – Starting the Learning journey Cat Tully
0915 – 0945 7. Faculty Session Thinking like a futurist: an introduction to some foundational foresight
concepts and approaches. Introduction to the SOIF Learning Journey
Cat Tully and Roger Dennis SOIF Guest faculty: Innovation consultant and serendipity architect
0945 – 1045 8. Panel Discussion The policy client’s perspective. Decision-makers and senior researchers
from government, civil society and the private sector discuss the relationship between strategic
foresight and policy, their experience of commissioning futures work and promoting long-term
decision-making
Hajo Junge Team Leader Future Development Policy, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
Jane Davidson Pro Vice Chancellor – External Engagement and Sustainability, University of
Wales Trinity Saint David. Former Welsh Minister and architect of the Future Generations Act
Moutaz Al Riyami Upstream Joint Venture Leadership Team, Royal Dutch Shell
Chair: Cat Tully
1045 Tea/Coffee
1115 – 1145 9. Faculty Session Introduction to scoping. Outlining the purpose of the scoping stage
Cat Tully and Roger Dennis
1145 – 1300 10. Live Challenge Exercise Scoping the Live Challenge Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1300 Lunch
1445 – 1515 11. Faculty Session Ordering Uncertainty Roger Dennis
1515 – 1615 12. Live Challenge Exercise Ordering Uncertainty Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1615 Tea/coffee
1645– 1800 13. Plenary Session Participants’ experience of foresight. Participants share their experience of
foresight work, giving examples of projects they have been involved in
Chair: Cat Tully
1800 – 1810 14. Closing Session – “Check out” Cat Tully
1930 Barbecue and Croquet
Moment of Delight: “An evocation of the wonder of being alone in the vastness of the desert
night “An after diner performance of texts from Antoine de St-Exupéry’s Wind, Sand and
Stars and The Little Prince and some improvised song
Reuben Thomas Baritone, writer and programmer
10PROGRAMME
DAY 3 WEDNESDAY 8 AUGUST
STAGES II TO III – ORDERING
Introduction to scenarios – global trends – scenario development
0700 – 0745 Mindfulness (Garden or James Wyatt room)
0730 – 0900 Breakfast
0900 – 0915 15. Opening Session “Check In” – Continuing the Learning Journey Cat Tully
0915 – 1015 16. Faculty Session Ordering uncertainty. Generating alternative images of the future
Roger Dennis and Cat Tully
1015 Tea/coffee
1030 – 1100 Optional session: Overview of the Strategic Foresight Programme endorsed by ILM
Karen West SOIF Internal Verifier; and Paul Burgess External Verifier for ILM
1100 – 1200 17. Panel Discussion An international panel explains how they order the futures,
develop scenarios and apply them to policy
Mathew Burrows Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Atlantic Council
Eugene Boadu Director, Corporate Affairs, mPedigree
(Special Guest) Pupul Bisht, Design Researcher, OCAD University
Chair: Peter Glenday
1200 – 1300 18. Live Challenge Exercise Scenario development. Plenary followed by group work
Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1300 Lunch followed by conference photo and Learning walk
1445 – 1600 19. Live Challenge Exercise Continue Scenario Development (continued)
1600 – 1650 20. Report back . Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1650 – 1700 21. Closing Session – “Check out” Cat Tully
1700 Tea/coffee and activities. Available for your enjoyment during afternoon activities:
walk, croquet, spa, time at leisure
1900 Reception Joseph Jaworski Next Generation Foresight Practitioners Award –
join our guests in the library
1930 Dinner followed by awards ceremony at 2030
Including: Keynote Rebeca Grynspan Iberoamerican Secretary General, SEGIB; Vice-President
of Costa Rica (1994–98); Former Assistant Secretary General of the United Nations
Moment of Delight: “Speaking in Flow and Rhythm” Christian speaks in flow and rhythm,
celebrating the winners of the Next Generation Foresight Practitioners Award and the futures
projects they are pioneering
Christian Foley Spoken Word Educator, T.S Eliot Foundation and The Complete Works Charity
11PROGRAMME
DAY 4 THURSDAY 9 AUGUST
STAGES III TO IV – IMPLICATIONS TO INTEGRATING FUTURES
Building on our scenarios to identify implications – application of foresight to policy and strategy
0700 – 0745 Yoga session (Garden or James Wyatt room)
0730 – 0900 Breakfast
0900 – 0915 22. Opening Session “Check In” – Continuing the Learning Journey Cat Tully
0915 – 0945 23. Faculty Session Implications. Making the bridge from futures to policy
Cat Tully and Roger Dennis
0945 – 1045 24. Live Challenge Exercise Visioning and Backcasting
Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1045 Tea/Coffee
1115 – 1300 25. Live Challenge Exercise Wind-tunnelling and Policy portfolios
Peter Glenday and Roger Dennis
1300 Lunch
Moment of Delight: “Understanding ourselves as thinking, creating human beings”. In search
of a universal language to help people understand people and the lifelong benefit of knowing
yourself and others better
John Furey, Natural philosopher of time, Author, Technologist
Followed by optional Garden tour at 1400
1430 – 1545 26. Panel Discussion How to think through the implications of foresight work and develop the
strategic capability of organisations to harness foresight in policy and decision-making processes
Danièle Réchard, Head of Global Trends Unit and Member of ESPAS, European Parliamentary
Research Service
Gordon Woo Catastrophist, Risk Management Solutions (RMS)
Nicholas Colloff, Director, Argidius Foundation and former Director of Innovation, Oxfam GB
Rosemarie Forsythe, Former Director, International Political Strategy at ExxonMobil and former
White House National Security Council Director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian Affairs
Chair: Cat Tully
1545 – 1745 27. Live Challenge Exercise Completing the Live Challenge. Participants prepare their advice
to the client on how to respond to the Live Challenge
Tea/coffee available
1745 – 1845 28. Faculty Session Integrating the futures approach Embedding and communicating insights
Roger Dennis
1845 – 1855 29. Closing Session – “Check out” Cat Tully
2000 Gala dinner
12PROGRAMME
DAY 5 FRIDAY 10 AUGUST
STAGE IV – INTEGRATING FUTURES AND LESSONS FROM THE WEEK
Integrating the foresight approach: Presenting back to the client – bringing foresight back to the
office and planning our projects – lessons from the whole week as we wrap-up the journey for
this year. Goodbyes
0700 – 0745 Mindfulness (Garden or James Wyatt room)
0730 – 0900 Breakfast and checkout of rooms. Please return your key to Hartwell House by 0900.
You can leave your luggage at reception
0900 – 0915 30. Opening Session “Check in” – Continuing the Learning journey Cat Tully
0915 – 1000 31. Live Challenge Exercise Groups present their recommendations to our policy client
Moeletsi Mbeki Deputy Chairperson of The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)
Chair: Peter Glenday
1000 – 1045 32. Faculty Session Integrating the futures approach. Building strategic capability and
stimulating a forward-looking organisation Cat Tully and Roger Dennis
1045 Tea/coffee
Moment of Delight: “The Power of the Arts to change lives” Carlotta brings us her story of
voice and empowerment, transformation and agency. Inspiration from a personal mission
Carlotta Allum Founder, Stretch
1130 – 1200 33. Integrating Futures Exercise Integrating Futures in your organisation – your project
Cat Tully
1200 – 1245 34. Advisory Session Developing future project plans with SOIF advisers and coaches
1245 – 1315 35. Concluding the Learning Journey Next steps and goodbyes. Final “Check Out”
Cat Tully and the SOIF Team
1315 Lunch
1400 Participants depart
13ACCREDITED LEARNING Benefits:
PROGRAMME FOR • Continue to practice and
STRATEGIC FORESIGHT deepen your skills as a Strategic
PRACTITIONERS Foresight practitioner
School of International Futures
• Maximise the benefits of your
(SOIF) is pleased to offer
learning for you and your
attendees at our SOIF2018 retreat
organisation
the option to achieve professional
certification to our Strategic • Benefit from support from SOIF
Foresight Programme endorsed faculty and advisers
by ILM, the UK’s leading specialist
• Receive external validation for
provider in leadership, coaching
your work and enhancement of
and management qualifications
your personal CV
• Apply and maximise learning • Access amazing resources as a
from the Retreat in a practical student ILM member
way for the immediate benefit
For further information on the
of you and your organisation
Strategic Foresight Programme,
• Commit to precious space in ask of the SOIF team or attend
busy work diaries to continue to the Overview of the Strategic
reflect and learn in a structured Foresight Programme on
and supported way Wednesday at 10.30.
• Gain the award of a certificate
We are also developing an
from the world’s largest
alternative accreditation route
professional institute for
for those either can’t attend the
management and leadership
Retreat (or don’t want to wait for
• Contribute to your organisation it) based on a 2-day workshop
or community through the with additional distance learning.
process and outcomes of Speak to Paul Davies for more
your project information.
14TEAM
At this year’s retreat you will be
supported by different members of the
SOIF team, who will be helping you at
different stages of your journey.
CORE RETREAT TEAM
• Cat Tully (Retreat host and Faculty)
• Peter Glenday (Retreat host and Live Challenge lead)
• Sophie Gardner (Retreat Co-ordinator)
GUEST FACULTY
• Roger Dennis (Guest Faculty)
FACILITATION TEAM
• Guy Yeomans
• Johann Schutte
• Nerea Cuadra
• Paul Davies (Lead Facilitator)
AWARDS HOSTS AND ORGANISERS
• Debbie Cooper
• Sarah Spencer
SPECIAL GUESTS
• Karen West (ILM and accreditation)
• Brian Chandler
• Betty Sue Flowers
15TEAM BIOS
TEAM BIOS
BRIAN CHANDLER CAT TULLY DEBBIE COOPER
Between 1980 and 1990 Brian was Cat Tully is the founder of the Debbie is a Coordinator for
the main change agent at Arthur School of International Futures SOIF, leading the Finance and
Young (now Ernst & Young). He (SOIF). SOIF helps leaders, Community/L&D workstreams and
turned the training department communities and organisations engaging with participants who
into a profit centre and built a team engage with the future, to make are undertaking the ILM endorsed
which moved from ‘classroom’ better decisions today. Strategic Foresight Programme.
teaching to working with business She also supports SOIF projects
leaders on their problems. He SOIF runs projects and foresight utilising her organisational,
drew on Gallwey’s ‘Inner Game’ retreats across the world and has communication and delivery skills.
Huthwaite’s behavioural research, 600 alumni in 50 countries. Cat
Porter’s theories, and much else advises on and teaches strategic She is an APMP qualified Project
to underpin this. Along with Mairi foresight, emergent strategy and Manager with over 10 years
Eastwood, who used to head system stewardship internationally, experience – delivering complex
Praesta, global leaders in coaching including at the UN and as a Visiting research and development projects
he opened up the UK market Professor in Malaysia and Russia. (including trials, international
for MBAs. collaboration and support to
Previously, Cat was Strategy military operations) for the
What he learned and created in Project Director at the UK FCO Defence Science and Technology
this period (he transformed the and Senior Policy Adviser in the Laboratory (DSTL), an executive
training programme for 4000 Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit. agency of the UK Ministry of
people) enabled him to build his Before working in government, Defence.
own consulting practice. With many she worked in strategy and
of his clients now retired, he has international relations across the As a Clear Mind Institute Level
moved into ‘Angel Investing’ with, not-for-profit and business sectors, 2 Mindfulness Practitioner she
amongst others: a headhunter including Christian Aid, Technoserve enjoys sharing the many benefits
who leads in placing women in and Procter and Gamble. of practising mindfulness and
engineering management; and engages with professionals
a project to provide postcode Cat has degrees from Cambridge and individuals either through
addresses in Africa. He lives in a and Princeton Universities. She providing sessions in workplaces,
tiny village in Norfolk. is a trustee for Involve, a public public spaces or 1-to-1.
participation Think Tank; the
Publications: Consultant Editor Foundation for Democracy
on The Manager’s Handbook and Sustainable Development
(’86–’92). Sold 500,000 copies (FDSD); a Global board member
in 15 languages. With Tony Scott, of Academics Stand Against
occasional articles in management Poverty (ASAP); and a member of
journals. ‘Executive Producer’ on the Advisory Group of the British
his late wife’s The Lore of Scotland Foreign Policy Group (BFPG).
(October 2009), and The Fabled
Coast (July 2012).
16TEAM BIOS
GUY YEOMANS JOHANN SCHUTTE KAREN WEST
Guy is a Foresight Consultant at Johann Schutte developed his Enabling others to be the best
SOIF. Prior to moving into the futures foresight-policy expertise at that they can be – whether that’s
field Guy spent over a decade UNICEF’s Data, Research and Policy as a leader, manager, professional,
working in the online and internet Unit in New York where he advised or even simply as a fellow human
sector across a variety of enterprises national committees and country being(!) – is the common thread
from small scale start-ups, through offices and penned guidance notes throughout Karen’s working
professional service firms to on using megatrends and scenario life. A facilitator, mentor, people
international investment banks. planning for country analysis and developer and coach for more than
programming. the past 20+ years, Karen’s work
Guy then initially trained as a has been mainly in the public and
strategic scenario practitioner After graduating with an M.Sc. not for profit sectors but has also
under the tuition of Kees van in Strategic Foresight at the worked in the private sector. She
der Heijden (ex-Global Business University of Houston, he worked is proud to be a life-long learner
Network / Shell and author of in the automobile industry on and following undergraduate
“The Art of the Strategic technology forecasting, the future studies, built a strong foundation
Conversation”) and Dr. George of automobile user experience (UX), of knowledge from postgraduate
Burt at the Centre for Scenario user interfaces (UI) and Mobility as studies in vocational guidance
Planning and Future Studies at the a Service (MaaS). His work includes and Masters programmes in both
University of Strathclyde Business identifying emerging biotechnology learning/training and international
School, Glasgow, Scotland. opportunities and risks in of development.
neurology, immunology and bone
Since 2009 Guy has worked as an disease, backcasting scenarios for Karen practises in the UK and in
independent futures and strategic the US Forestry Service and the 40+ countries around the globe.
foresight consultant using a range future of fresh produce in urban Whilst in the Civil Service she was
of processes and techniques to help areas including Cape Town. At quickly ‘bitten by the overseas bug’
clients – via proposition, project the 2016 World Future Society and had amazing opportunities
and strategy development – to conference he presented on space to work on short and longer-
identify, assess and engage with exploration and the scientific term projects and assignments
future change. Previous clients search for extraterrestrial life. He in countries from South Africa to
include British Red Cross, Kantar is a member of the Association Bermuda and the Caribbean; from
Futures, UK Ministry of Defence’s of Professional Futurists and Ethiopia to Beijing, via much time
Development, Concepts and organized their 2016 and 2017 in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
Doctrine Centre, Institute for Risk &; online Global Futures Festivals. Her work in the not for profit
Disaster Reduction, UCL, and Royal sector was at Lambeth Palace,
United Services Institute (RUSI). Johann holds an M.Div. from the supporting the on-going CPD of
University of Stellenbosch and was Archbishops and Bishops of the
Guy previously studied a reverend for twelve years in Cape Church of England. More recently
International Studies at the Town responsible for leading and she worked in the private sector
University of Leeds and has managing a 5000-member, local in assessment work for selection
particular interests in futures faith organization through national and development and applying
research in relation to disasters socio-political change, local facilitation skills in a range of
studies and disaster risk reduction demographic shifts and a period of different settings.
and the Arctic. economic uncertainty.
17TEAM BIOS
NEREA CUADRA PAUL DAVIES PETER GLENDAY
I joined the School of International Paul helps people in organisations Peter Glenday is Programme &
Futures in October 2017 as a think and converse better, whether Research Director at the School
Project Manager. The field of working strategically at Board level, of International Futures. He has
strategic foresight and all the engaging the wider organisation or seven years’ experience delivering
possibilities it can bring to you coaching on a one-to-one basis. consultancy and research projects
personally and to society in general including horizon scanning and
really attracted me. During this He is hard to beat at helping foresight projects for governments,
time I have managed projects executives maintain rigour whilst consulting in the non-profit sector,
based on futures approach for engaging in the complex social and academic research.
several clients, including the Royal dynamics of any significant
Society and Cancer Research UK. personal or organisational He has led and worked on horizon
I also support project teams as an development. His analytical skills scanning projects for School of
analyst, carrying out desk research, from McKinsey & Company and International Futures for clients
horizon scanning and interviews Accenture support the relational including BOND Development
as well as assisting the project approaches he developed at Futures, Cancer Research UK,
lead with scenario planning and Ashridge Business School. UK Government, Arts Council
organising participative scenario Serving Ambassadors, Directors, England, IATA the Royal Society
workshops. Partners and Senior Civil Servants, and a refresh of the Technology
he is often a ‘consultant to the and Innovation Futures project
I have a Prince 2 foundation consultants.’ commissioned by Government
qualification and over 10 years’ Office for Science, as well as
experience managing projects that His work is grounded in his facilitating scenario planning and
aim to bring innovation to industry experience of Founding CXO roles foresight workshops. He previously
in the private sector, as I am a at charities such as Teach First. His worked at the Horizon Scanning
chartered engineer by degree. perspective is enriched by recent Center, Government Office for
Past experience at Tate. years studying at Taoist kung fu Science as a lead researcher on the
schools in China and Buddhist 2010 Technology and Innovation
Personally, I enjoy volunteering in temples in SE Asia, as well as Futures and ‘Dimensions of
different fields to get to know new teaching on international MBA Uncertainty’ projects, and
people and live new experiences. and MPP programmes. subsequently for Horizon Scanning
For example, I volunteered and Ltd on the 2012 refresh.
trained as a qualified first aider In addition to being a SOIF
with St. John’s Ambulance and Companion, Paul is a Director at Peter has a doctorate in Zoology
often participate through different Talik & Company, a consultancy (Genetics) from University of
associations in initiatives to that helps organizations find new Oxford and a BA in Natural Sciences
promote STEM learning to girls ways of organising to address from University of Cambridge.
and women to combat gender complex global challenges by
stereotypes and inequality. designing for “relevance and
resilience”. He also works with
Mindfulness Connected.
18TEAM BIOS
ROGER DENNIS SARAH SPENCER SOPHIE GARDNER
Roger Dennis works in the Sarah Spencer is coordinating Sophie Gardner is events
continuum between foresight, the Next Generation Foresight coordinator for the SOIF 2018
strategy and innovation. In 2006 Practitioner Award and the summer Retreat. She is passionate
he co-led the Shell Technology ceremony at the retreat. Prior to about supporting change-making
Futures programme for the joining SOIF, Sarah spent 10 years people and organisations and
GameChanger team in The Hague, in the Prime Minister’s Strategy has worked in many third sector
is a member of the team for Future Unit, Cabinet Office leading environments including charities,
Agenda – the world’s largest on their events programme, networks, development and
foresight programme – and has managing their core team and community projects.
worked across a range of industries. HR, she also spent 2 years in
Roger was one of the drivers Sure Start and Early Intervention Sophie has made hundreds
of the Canterbury DHB change Unit, Department for Education of events, co-producing and
programme in New Zealand. His contributing to the Sure Start managing educational and
thinking has been referenced in programme. Sarah’s passions are entertainment gatherings, festival
numerous publications in including family and happiness. areas, music events, workshops,
the FT and Scientific American. and high level meetings in UK
and Africa in aid of causes which
Roger is a frequent speaker at include sustainable development,
events around the world, and Calais refugees, banking fraud,
presented on cities, data and indigenous people’s rights.
climate change at the 2015 Nobel
Laureate Symposium in Hong Kong. She has helped to produce
conferences within Africa Utopia
at Southbank Centre, at the
Sierra Leone Embassy UK, and in
Gambia, with a focus on raising
collaboration and participation
between government depts, third
sector organisations and grassroots
community for the protection of
both people and their environment.
She has worked on broad range of
environmental and social justice
causes for the past twenty years.
She has also produced and run
arts-based community projects
throughout London, UK.
In 2008 she founded community
organisation Welkin Earth www.
welkinearth.org which voluntarily
support multiple projects and
organisations to do their good work.
19SPEAKERS
SPEAKERS DAY 1
JOSEPH JAWORSKI SUSAN TAYLOR BETTY SUE FLOWERS
Joseph Jaworski has devoted Susan Taylor has devoted much Betty Sue Flowers, Ph.D. (University
much of his life to exploring of her life to exploring the deeper of London), and Distinguished
the deeper dimensions of dimensions of human potential. Alumnus of the University of
transformational leadership. As As CEO of Generon International, Texas, is a writer, editor, and
founder and Chairman of Generon Susan collaborates with leaders, international business consultant,
International, Joseph advises CEOs teams and organizations to with publications ranging from
and senior executives in Fortune create more effective, advanced, poetry therapy to human rights.
500 companies. He specializes in conscious contributions to business She has served as a moderator for
the design and execution of large and society. executive seminars at the Aspen
scale organizational change as Institute, consultant for NASA
well as strategy formation and Susan is a certified group facilitator and CIA, Visiting Advisor to the
implementation. He is a pioneer through Interaction Associates and Secretary of the Navy, Public
and prominent thought leader in a certified coach through CTA; she Director of the American Institute of
the discipline “Strategic Foresight”; is ICF certified. Her expertise in Architects, and editor of scenarios
enabling leaders to deepen their Generative Dialogue and executive for Shell International in London
capacity for tactical and strategic coaching are routinely applied as and the Hague, and the World
insight. she works with executives to build Business Council for Sustainable
organizational cultures that are Development in Geneva. She was
In 1980, Joseph founded the values-based and purpose-driven. the series consultant for the PBS
American Leadership Forum, a television series, “Joseph Campbell
non-governmental organization Susan has two daughters, and the Power of Myth”and on-
dedicated to strengthening Carolanne (24) and Erin (21) and air consultant for the nationally
collaborative civic leadership in the resides in Hilton Head Island, SC. broadcast “The Mystery of Love.”
United States. Ten years later, he Flowers served as Director of the
joined the Royal Dutch/Shell Group Johnson Presidential Library and
of companies in London to head Museum and as a professor, Director
Shell’s renowned team of scenario of Creative Writing in the English
planners. Under his leadership, the Department, and Associate Dean of
Shell team made a fundamental shift Graduate Studies at the University
in the way the company framed and of Texas at Austin. Publications
used scenarios as a tool for strategy include (with Peter Senge, Otto
formation. Joseph encouraged the Scharmer, and Joseph Jaworski):
company to use scenarios not merely Presence: Human Purpose and the
to adapt to different possible futures, Field of the Future, “Leadership in
but to generate—to participate in Action: Three Essential Energies,”
bringing forth—better futures. in The Transforming Leader: New
Approaches to Leadership for the
Jaworski is the author of the Twenty-First Century, “The Shield
critically acclaimed international of Athena: Archetypal Images and
best-seller, Synchronicity: The Inner Women as Political Leaders,” and
Path of Leadership. He currently (co-edited with Angela Wilkinson)
resides in Austin, TX. Realistic Hope: Facing Global
Challenges (forthcoming).
20SPEAKERS
DAY 2
MOELETSI MBEKI KERRY BROWN HAJO JUNGE
Moeletsi Mbeki is a political analyst, Kerry Brown is Professor of Chinese After completing my studies of
author and entrepreneur. He is Studies and Director of the Lau China human geography, social and
a director of several companies, Institute at King’s College, London. political sciences, and international
Chairman of KMM Investments, From 2012 to 2015 he was Professor development in Berlin and
KMM Review Publishing, MGM of Chinese Politics and Director of the Durban I worked in South Africa
Capital Investments and Executive China Studies Centre at the University and the Philippines for several
Chairman of Pomegranate Media. of Sydney, Australia. Prior to this he years. In South Africa my work
worked at Chatham House from 2006 focused on public sector reform,
Moeletsi is the author of Architects to 2012, as Senior Fellow and then intergovernmental relations and
of Poverty: Why African Capitalism Head of the Asia Programme. From municipal development. Using
Needs Changing. He edited 1998 to 2005 he worked at the British Manila in the Philippines as a base
Advocates for Change: How to Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as I worked on urban development
Overcome Africa’s Challenges. First Secretary at the British Embassy issues in the context of climate
Both books have been translated in Beijing, and then as Head of the change at city level in South
into Chinese. He has recently co- Indonesia, Philippine and East Timor East Asia (Philippines, Vietnam,
authored A Manifesto for Social Section. He lived in the Inner Mongolia Singapore) and South Asia
Change: How to Save South Africa, region of China from 1994 to 1996. (Bangladesh, India).
with his niece Dr Nobantu Mbeki.
Professor Brown directed the My assignments in Johannesburg
He is Deputy Chairman of the South Europe China Research and Advice and Manila were followed by
African Institute for International Network (ECRAN) giving policy a coordination position at the
Affairs (SAIIA); an independent advice to the European External German Agency for International
think tank based at the University of Action Service between 2011 and Cooperation’s (GIZ) head office in
the Witwatersrand and is a member 2014. He is the author of over Frankfurt for GIZ’s development
of the council of the International ten books on modern Chinese cooperation portfolio (governance
Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) politics, history and language, and democracy) in Sub-Saharan
based in London. the most recent of which are The Africa, North Africa and the
New Emperors: Power and the Middle East.
After returning to South Africa from Princelings in China (2014),What’;s
exile in 1990, he was appointed Head Wrong with Diplomacy: The Case I am currently heading a team at
of Communications for the Congress of the UK and China (2015) and the GIZ’s Berlin office focusing on
of South Africa Trade Unions, Berkshire Dictionary of Chinese the analysis of global trends and
(Cosatu) and Media Consultant to Biography (in Four Volumes- 2014– scenarios and developing policy
the African National Congress. 2015). His ‘China’s CEO: Xi Jinping’; recommendations for Germany’s
was published in 2016. ‘China’s future development policy and
During most of the 1980s he was a World: What Does China Want was its international development
Senior Journalist for the Zimbabwe published in August 2017, and `The cooperation going forward.
Newspapers in Harare. Mbeki began World According to Xi Jinping’ in
his journalism career in London in 2018. `China’s Dreams: The Culture
1979 as a contributor to Africa, New of the Communist Party and the
African, Africa Now magazines and Secret Sources of its Power’ will be
to the BBC Africa Service. published by Polity Press, Cambridge
in September 2018.
21SPEAKERS
DAY 2
JANE DAVIDSON MOUTAZ AL RIYAMI REUBEN THOMAS
Dr Jane Davidson is Pro Vice- Moutaz Al Riyami joined Shell in Reuben Thomas began his
Chancellor for Sustainability 2015 as a member of the Group singing career at the age of
and Engagement and Director Strategy Business Environment eight in the choir of St John’s
of INSPIRE at the University of leadership team (Shell’s Scenario College, Cambridge, where
Wales Trinity Saint David which Team) and was responsible for he returned to take a BA and
is embedding sustainability managing the Energy Transition PhD in computer science, and
throughout the university’s culture, Programme. In November of 2017 won both academic and choral
campus and curriculum. Jane has he assumed his current role as a scholarships. A London-based
won a number of UK wide awards member of the Upstream Joint baritone, writer and programmer
for this work. Venture leadership team. Moutaz since 2005, Reuben is a lay clerk at
joined Shell from Petroleum Westminster Cathedral, and sings
From 2007- 2011, Jane was Minister Development Oman (PDO), a Shell regularly with groups such as the
for Environment, Sustainability Joint Venture, having taken on Academy of Ancient Music, the
and Housing in Wales where she numerous technical and corporate Hanover Band and Philharmonia
proposed legislation to make roles in the upstream business. Voices. Recent projects include
sustainable development its Moutaz studied engineering and a recording of Buxtehude’s Jesu
central organising principle – the holds a degree in mechanical membra nostri with the choir of
Wellbeing of Future Generations engineering. Trinity Hall, Cambridge, and the
Act came into law in April 2015. She first performance of the choral
created a Welsh Climate Change cycle To Every Thing…, for which
Commission and Future Generations he wrote the lyrics and Jamie Hall
Commissioner, legislated on waste the music. In September he will join
which has seen Wales become the the men of Westminster Cathedral
lead recycling country in Britain and Choir in singing 24 hours of the
introduced the Welsh charge on Divine Offices in Oxford. Books
carrier bags. include a mock-epic in verse, The
Youth Hostel; a 100-year diary,
From 2000–2007, Jane was Minister The Life Book, and most recently
of Education, Lifelong Learning and a collection of poetry in English,
Skills in Wales. French, and Perl, Recalled Home.
Jane says “Sustainability needs
to be at the heart of how we do
business. We cannot continue to
use more resources than our one
planet can support”.
22SPEAKERS
DAY 3
MATHEW J. BURROWS EUGENE KWEKU BOADU REBECA GRYNSPAN
Mathew Burrows serves as director Eugene Boadu has more than Rebeca Grynspan is the Secretary
of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, a decade’s experience working General of the Ibero American
Strategy and Risks Initiative (FSR) across academia, entrepreneurship, Conference, an international
working with a broad range of corporate intrapreneurship, and at multlateral institution which brings
partners, analysing trends and the interfaces of private enterprise together Latin America plus Spain,
possible scenarios and their broad and public administration. Andorra and Portugal.
implications. Burrows recently
authored sreports on “Reducing He is currently a leader in the Prior to this appointment she held
the Risks From Rapid Demographic operations design and strategy the post of Assistant Secretary
Change,” and the “Global System formulation groups in mPedigree General of the United Nationsand
on the Brink: Pathways Toward a Network, a social enterprise Associate Administrator of the
New Normal.” and a book “The building and deploying many United Nations Development
Future Declassified: Megatrends innovative technologies for human Program (UNDP) since February
that Will Undo the World Unless security, trade standards, and 2010. As a recognized leader in
We Take Action” (Palgrave/ market exchange facilitation, promoting human development,
Macmillan 2014). In August 2013 with particular emphasis on she has focused on critical issues
he retired from a 28-year career anticounterfeiting, supply chain such as the reduction of inequality
in the CIA and State Department, transformation, predictive analytics, and poverty, gender equity, South-
the last ten being spent at the infra-sensors, and brand equity. South cooperation as tool for
National Intelligence Council (NIC), development, among others. She is
the premier analytic unit in the US Boadu is a prolific speaker and one of the 50 leading intellectuals
Intelligence Community. In 2007, trainer, and has headlined multiple of Latin America.
he was appointed Counselor which global and regional conferences
is the number three position in the and workshops on four Before joining the United Nations,
NIC guiding and shepherding all continents, including the Global she served as Vice President of
NIC products from inception to Entrepreneurship Summit under Costa Rica from 1994 to 1998. She
dissemination. He was the principal the auspices of President Barack was Minister of Housing, Minister
drafter for the NIC publication Obama and The 2016 Ashoka Coordinator of Economic and Social
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Changemaker Summit. Affairs of her country and Deputy
Worlds, which received widespread Minister of Finance; also, she was
praise in the international media. Boadu is an Expert facilitator of the a member of the High Level Panel
Africa Union’s Trade Commission’s on Financing for Development
consultative group playing a convened by the UN Secretary
highlevel advisory function in the General Kofi Annan in 2001.
Commission’s quest to promote
a new regulatory harmonisation
agenda and accelerate the
integration of trade standards
across the African continent.
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