SPECIAL BRIEFING ON PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS - Kreab
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KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 3, SEPTEMBER 2021
SPECIAL BRIEFING
ON PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS
01 | RESULTS
SPD wins with 25.7 percent
02 | OLAF SCHOLZ
What does Olaf Scholz stand for?
03 | COALITIONS OPTIONS
Coalition negotiations will be complicated
Source: Photo by Tom Radetzki on Unsplash
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 RESULTS | 02 | 03 CONTENT
GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION
SPD 25.7%
SOCIAL DEMOCRAT OLAF SCHOLZ
WINS ELECTIONS
Angela Merkel Armin Laschet Olaf Scholz Annalena Baerbock
The social democratic SPD with 25.7 percent (2017:
20.5) is the winner of the German federal elections.
Close behind lies the former governing conserva-
tive Party CDU/CSU with 24.1 percent (2017: 32.9).
With its candidate Laschet, it achieves its worst
result in history. With strong gains, the Greens reach THE 2021 ELECTION CAMPAIGN WAS MORE
third place with 14.8 percent (8.9) – but fall short EXCITING THAN PREVIOUS ELECTION CYCLES.
of expectations. The liberal democratic FDP was
able to improve slightly to 11.5 percent (10.8). The The departure of Chancellor Merkel marks the end of an era in German politics.
right-wing nationalist AfD most recently third strong- For the first time, 3 candidates competed for the most important political office
est party decreased to 10.3 percent (12.6). The Left in Germany. Throughout the election campaign, media and public discourse
with 4.9 percent (9.2) could not reach the 5 per cent predominantly revolved around the performance of the top candidates from the
minimum barrier, but thanks to its three direct man- CDU, SPD and Greens, with a specific focus on their perceived missteps.
dates it may nevertheless enter the Bundestag with
the full strength of its election result. This is what the
German basic mandate clause stipulates.
Source: Photos by Angela Merkel © CDU/Laurence Chaperon | https://www.bilder.cdu.de, Armin Laschet © CDU/Laurence Chaperon, Olaf Scholz © Federal Ministry of Finance, Annalena Baerbock © gruene.de
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 RESULTS | 02 | 03 CONTENT
FACTS & FIGURES
German Federal Elections 2021: preliminary results Distribution of seats in the 20th German Bundestag
Gains and losses compared to 2017 According to preliminary results of the German Federal Elections 2021
25.7
24.1 6.4
5.2
0.8 1.4 1.2
14.8 –8.8 –2.3 –4.3
11.5
10.3
6.2 735 seats in total.
4.9
2.4
CDU/
SPD CSU Greens FDP AfD Left SSW (1)
CDU/ CDU/
SPD CSU Greens FDP AfD Left FW Other SPD CSU Greens FDP AfD Left FW Other
Source: The Federal Returning Officer. As of: 27/09/2021 Chart: www.bundestagswahl-2021.de
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 | 02 OLAF SCHOLZ | 03 CONTENT
WHAT DOES While the CDU has fallen sharply in voter favour, the SPD,
the Greens and the FDP have made slight to significant
OLAF SCHOLZ
gains. From this, Scholz derives a clear mandate to govern
with a “Traffic light” coalition (SPD–Greens–FDP)
STAND FOR? With OLAF SCHOLZ,
the election is now being won by
a candidate who, in the public
perception, stands for the con-
47%
stancy and stability of the grand
coalition. The highly experienced According to polls, with
former Head of Government of
the Federal State of Hamburg and
significantly more people
previous finance minister wants
to implement social reforms and
want Olaf Scholz (47 percent)
strengthen Germany’s climate
policy. In addition, he wants to
as chancellor than
strengthen the role of Europe. His Armin Laschet (20 percent).
plan is to finance reforms through
tax increases for higher earners. The gains as well as the
strong poll numbers for
Olaf Scholz could give him
a moral advantage in the
upcoming public debate on
forming a government.
Source: Photo by Olaf Scholz © Federal Ministry of Finance
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 | 02 | 03 COALITIONS CONTENT
WHAT COALITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY?
AT LEAST ON THE FEDERAL LEVEL – it will most likely be the first
time since the early 50s that a three-party coalition is likely to materialise Five different coalitions are theoretically possible but
instead of a two-party coalition between a large and a smaller coalition partner. likely to very different degrees. Another special fact is
This result could be a foretaste of the evolving party system with three to four that after this election a coalition is not only possible
comparably sized parties between 15–25 percent, in which there are no longer under the election winner SPD. One thing is certain,
any classic people’s parties. the coalition negotiations will be complicated.
Source: Photo by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash READ MORE NEXT PAGE
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 | 02 | 03 COALITIONS CONTENT
WHAT COALITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY? Possible coalitions
Following the German Federal Elections 2021
(according to preliminary results)
Black-Red-Green
Black-Red-Yellow
“TRAFFIC LIGHT” COALITION
“Traffic light”
SPD–FDP–Greens: reasonably likely. On the one hand, there are overlaps on Grand coalition
foreign & European, climate & energy and societal policy topics. On the other “Jamaica” coalition
hand, there is great potential for conflict on social reforms, economic & finan-
Red-Red-Green
cial policy as well as transport policy. The coalition is only possible if SPD and
Greens offer major concessions to the FDP. Social reforms and sanctions in Red-Green
climate policy would hardly be possible, tax increases completely impossible. Black-Green
In economic and financial policy, the FDP would insist on a high degree of influ-
Black-Yellow
ence. Permanent conflicts amongst the coalition partners would be inevi-
table. In addition, this coalition is not very popular among FDP members. majority of seats no majority; 735 seats in total
As of: 27/09/2021. Chart: http://www.bundestagswahl-2021.de/
“JAMAICA” COALITION “KENYA” COALITION
CDU/CSU–FDP–Greens: conceivable, but not very likely. The parties CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens: possible, but unlikely. In foreign and European
have a lot of common ground on foreign and European policy, and they have policy, as well as after recent rapprochements in climate and energy policy,
recently been converging on energy policy and digitalization. However, cli- this coalition has some overlaps. On top of the aforementioned strategic and
mate, economic and social policy remain major conflict topics. Whereas the historical reasons, the strong differences in terms of economic and social
Green Party wishes to restructure the social-ecological system and redistrib- policy also make this coalition more unlikely.
ute wealth in society, CDU/CSU and FDP are focusing on tax cuts, innovation
and budget consolidation. Among members of the Greens this coalition is
very unpopular, even more than the “Traffic light” coalition among FDP
members. CDU/CSU would like to continue governing but are cautious about
their claim on the day after the election. Within the conservatives, voices
are also being raised calling for a reorganisation in the opposition.
READ MORE NEXT PAGE
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021 01 | 02 | 03 COALITIONS CONTENT
WHAT COALITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND LIKELY?
Other coalition options, such as CDU/CSU–SPD, SPD–Greens, CDU/CSU–Greens
and CDU/CSU–FDP have already been ruled out mathematically. PREVIEW
In our next Special Report we will look at develop-
ments concerning the ongoing coalition negotiations.
Which coalition will prevail? Which party will gain
which ministries? Which orientations and agendas
will shape the next government?
OUTLOOK
For tactical and strategic reasons, a longer
phase of initial talks and explorative con-
sultations is now to be expected. For the
formation of coalitions it will not be the
two stronger parties, but the Greens
and the FDP, which will ultimately prove
decisive. After strongly distancing itself
from the Greens in the election campaign,
the FDP has already made initial state-
ments in which it has come closer to the
Greens on climate policy. The two parties
have already announced that they will hold
initial talks in a small group.
An agreement on a possible coalition is
not to be expected before the end of 2021,
and a coalition agreement will likely not be
reached before February or March 2022.
Source: Photo by Christian Lue on Unsplash
KREAB SPECIAL BRIEFING GERMANY EDITION 4, SEPTEMBER 2021
SABINE CLAUSECKER
Managing Partner | Kreab Germany
sabine.clausecker@kreab.com „We face our world’s complexity
Dir +49 (0)30. 81 884 132
Franklinstraße 27 | 10587 Berlin | Germany with clarity, relevant competencies
and agile processes. Thereby we
create remarkable, effective
communication and events for
CARSTEN HOLTKAMP
Senior Partner | Kreab Germany and with our clients.“
carsten.holtkamp@kreab.com
SABINE CLAUSECKER Managing Partner, Kreab Germany
Dir +49 (0)30. 81 884 181
Franklinstraße 27 | 10587 Berlin | Germany
PAUL SCHOTTHÖFER
Director of Corporate Communications | Kreab Germany
paul.schotthoefer@kreab.com
Dir +49 (0)30. 81 884 141
Franklinstraße 27 | 10587 Berlin | Germany
kreab.com/germany
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