SPECIAL ADVISORY - Healix
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SPECIAL ADVISORY
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Table of Contents
Ramadan at a Glance.......................................................................................... P3
Security Risks by Region
Africa
East Africa......................................................................................... P4
West Africa........................................................................................ P4
Asia-Pacific
Afghanistan/Pakistan ...................................................................... P5
China/Thailand ................................................................................. P6
Middle East and North Africa
Egypt/Iran......................................................................................... P7
Israel/West Bank/Saudi Arabia....................................................... P8
Tunisia/United Arab Emirates.......................................................... P9
General advice................................................................................................... P10
Regional advice.................................................................................................. P11
Regional advice.................................................................................................. P12
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Ramadan at a glance
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The Islamic holy month of Ramadan will commence on 16 May 2018, and will culminate
with the celebration of Eid al-Fitr on 14th June.
Ramadan falls in the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Due to differences between the
Muslim calendar and the Gregorian calendar, the date for Ramadan changes yearly. Ramadan
is the period when Muslims abstain from food and drink between sunrise and sunset. Ramadan
is seen as a time of reflection and during this period Muslims are encouraged to participate in
charity, fasting and prayer. It is a significant event and constitutes one of the Five Pillars of
Islam (almsgiving, faith, fasting, pilgrimage and worship).
During the holy month, Muslims will rise early to eat a pre-dawn meal called suhoor. In the
evening, the fast is broken with a meal known as iftar. Nightly prayers, called Tarawih, are also
held in mosques after iftar. Iftar may take the form of large public buffets or free meals at
mosques and community centres. Although traditions and practices during Ramadan may differ
by region and across cultures, the core principles remain the same.
Logistical Considerations
Opening hours of businesses and government offices will be impacted, with some organisations
opening for shorter hours. Business operations, especially those in Muslim-majority countries,
will experience disruption, such as a reduction in working hours and delayed decision-making.
Areas in the vicinity of mosques will likely be crowded during prayer time and iftar. As such,
there remains a potential for traffic disruption near large mosques in urban centres. Large
crowds are expected at various iftar gatherings and during Eid al-Fitr when Muslims celebrate
the end of Ramadan.
Etiquette
Try to avoid planning work lunches, and schedule any meetings so that it will not clash with
prayer times.
Refrain from playing loud music in public places or behaving in a way that may be
considered disrespectful.
Although in some countries non-Muslims are legally not required to fast, it is advisable to
refrain from consuming food and drink, or smoking in public places.
Local laws and customs relating to the business etiquette and behaviour may differ by region
and country.
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Security risks by region - East Africa
Al-Shabaab, a Somalia-based terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, remains the most
pertinent threat actor in East Africa. In previous years, al-Shabaab has carried out an
increased number of attacks in Kenya and Somalia during Ramadan. The group has recently
recorded its deadliest year (2018) thus far owing to several mass casualty attacks in Somalia. In
the past, the group has threatened to attack "non-believers" in Kenya during this period, and al-
Shabaab is expected to continue what has become an annual offensive during the Islamic holy
month. Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Kenya since 2011 after the Kenyan Defence
Forces began operations in Somalia against the terrorist group. In April 2015, al-Shabaab
attacked Garissa University College, killing 152 people.
In 2017, the Kenyan police identified several areas as being vulnerable to attacks by al-
Shabaab. These included Arabia, Fino and Elwak in Mandera county, the IIkambere and Kolbio
areas in Garissa county and Boni Forest in the coast region. At the time of publication, the police
have issued no such statement for 2018, most likely due to the improved security environment.
Outside Kenya and Somalia, al-Shabaab has demonstrated a limited capability to conduct
attacks in East Africa. It should be noted that the Islamic State (IS) militant group
established itself as a threat actor in Somalia in 2017. Five people were killed at a checkpoint
in the north-eastern port city of Bosaso on 24th May 2017. Since then, the group has gone on to
conduct more daring attacks as the security forces reel from increased al-Shabaab operations.
Security risks by region - West Africa
The frequency of attacks conducted by Boko Haram in Nigeria during Ramadan has
dropped significantly between 2015 and 2017, due to increased security operations in
north-east Nigeria. In February 2018, the Nigerian government announced that it had
defeated the group. While this remains far from the truth, recent claims highlight a containment
of Boko Haram in Nigeria. It remains likely that the militant group will attempt attacks during the
religious festival; however, these will likely be limited to rural areas around Borno and Yobe
States and border areas in Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Like al-Shabaab in East Africa, there
has been no expressed declaration of an intent to increase attacks.
A Shia Muslim group, the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, is expected to conduct more
protests during this period, calling for the release of its leader Ibrahim el-Zakzaky. There
are concerns that the Shia group could use the religious period as an opportunity to stage
further protests in northern Nigeria and the capital, Abuja. Although the group espouses non-
violence, members of the group have been involved in bouts of civil disobedience with the
actions of the security forces in many cases resulting in violence. There are up to three million
practising Shia Muslims in Nigeria.
Against a backdrop of poverty plus social and political disenfranchisement, the Sahel
has become a notable area of operations for Islamist extremist groups. In recent years
Burkina Faso (and the wider Sahel) has experienced an escalation in jihadist violence in part
linked to militant activities in Mali but also due to the emergence of homegrown groups. In
recent years, multiple terrorist attacks have occurred in the capitals of Mali, Niger, and Burkina
Faso, as well as attacks on security personnel in the border regions of these countries. Despite
the presence of foreign security personnel and security initiatives such as the G5-Sahel, the
complex groupings of criminal networks and militants will likely pose a threat during the holiday
period.
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Security risks by region - APAC
Afghanistan
An uptick in militant attacks is expected as Ramadan coincides with the Taliban’s annual
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spring offensive which was declared on 25 April.
The spring offensive seeks to destabilise the Afghan government by staging mass-casualty
attacks. In 2017, at least 18 people were killed on the first day of Ramadan alone. The 2018
spring offensive will pose a challenge to the Afghan security forces as control of districts is at its
lowest since 2015. The spate of US air strikes against the militants has provoked the Taliban,
who are expected to retaliate strongly by staging more high-profile attacks. Hopes of a
diplomatic resolution diminished when the Taliban rejected President Ashraf Ghani’s call to
register themselves for the upcoming parliamentary election. The group asserted that the
government had no legal right and legitimacy as it remained under foreign occupation.
Attacks targeting large urban centres will likely take the form of bombings. Taliban attacks
focusing on Afghan forces strongholds scattered throughout rural areas are expected to take
the form of a ground assault mounted by Taliban militants.
Pakistan
The risk of a high-profile attack targeting urban centres increases around Ramadan.
Islamist militant groups often capitalise on the festive period of Ramadan to perpetrate attacks.
In 2017, several militant attacks in Quetta, Karachi and Parachinar resulted in 73 people killed
and more than 100 other wounded. The attacks were claimed by several militant groups
affiliated to IS, as well as by Pakistani Taliban militant groups like Jamaat-ur-Ahra. Historical
precedence indicates that the attacks are likely to be driven by sectarian hostility, given that
most of the attacks during Ramadan were conducted by Sunni militant groups. As a
consequence, flashpoints for unrest are localised to Shia-dominated areas, and locations close
to government buildings or places with high pedestrian traffic.
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Security risks by region - APAC
China
The risk of unrest increases during Ramadan as a result of the antagonistic relationship
between the ethnic Uighurs and the Chinese authorities.
Southern Xinjiang is home to the majority of China’s Uighur population, an ethnic minority that
primarily practices Islam. There have been several high-profile periods of unrest in the region.
On the eve of Ramadan in July 2011, a series of knife and bomb attacks took place in Kashgar,
Xinjiang resulting in a total of 37 people killed and 57 others wounded. The unrest prompted the
authorities to deploy more security personnel. The securitisation of Xinjiang was also
accompanied by laws which curtailed religious freedom. In March 2017, the Chinese authorities
banned the burqa and Islamic baby names. In 2016, the government banned civil servants from
fasting during Ramadan.
The operational capacity of Islamist militant groups in Xinjiang remains limited.
IS has published several propaganda pieces calling on disenfranchised Uighurs to rally against
oppression by the Chinese government. Despite the aggressive posturing, IS currently does not
have much traction among the Uighur population and lacks any notable physical presence in
the country, limiting its effectiveness to conduct terrorist attacks in China. Likewise, although the
al-Qaeda-linked Turkestan Islamic Party has established a two-decade-long prominence among
the Uighur militant groups, its operations and resources remain focused and limited to the
Middle East.
Thailand
Militant activity in Thailand’s southern provinces usually increases during Ramadan.
Various Islamist groups operate in the Muslim majority provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani
and Songkhla, and militant activity typically increases during Ramadan. The profile of attacks
during Ramadan does not deviate much from previous occurrences, composed of bombings
and ambushes that are typically targeted at the security forces or areas with high pedestrian
traffic. In January 2018, twelve people were wounded and three others were killed when a
bomb detonated at a marketplace in Yala.
The profile of attacks has been showing signs of an increase in sophistication over the
past few months.
Although militant attacks over the past few months have regularly featured small improvised
explosive devices (IEDs), which have caused limited fatalities, reports of coordinated attacks
and the use of stronger IEDs suggests that militant targeting patterns might be changing. In
January, a motorcycle IED killed three people and wounded more than 20 others when it
detonated in Yala. In April, three bombs exploded simultaneously in several areas in Sungai
Golok, Narathiwat, wounding at least four people.
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Security risks by region - MENA
Egypt
The risk of militant attacks is increased in urban centres during Ramadan, especially
around religious sites. We consider Egypt to be a MODERATE security risk country, owing to
numerous attacks on urban centres such as Cairo, Alexandria and Luxor in recent years.
The source of attacks is likely to come from IS affiliates operating in the North Sinai, where the
security risks are EXTREME. Wilayat Sinai, the IS affiliate in the North Sinai has demonstrated
its operational capabilities by carrying out attacks on urban centres during Ramadan in the past
years. In May 2017, the group claimed responsibility for an attack on a bus carrying Coptic
Christians that killed 29 people near the city of Minya, 152 miles (145km) south of Cairo.
The security forces in Egypt are capable and heightened security measures should be
anticipated for the duration of Ramadan. Islamist extremist groups that are operating in the
North Sinai have expressed intent to carry out further attacks outside of the region; however,
many of these are thwarted by the Egyptian security forces. Travellers without a religious
reason to attend should minimise time spent in the vicinity of potential targets such as Coptic
Christian sites.
Iran
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The risk of an attack against urban centres is increased throughout Ramadan. On 27
July 2017, gunmen entered the parliament building, held a number of individuals hostage and
detonated at least one suicide IED. Simultaneously, the Ayatollah Khomeini mausoleum,
approximately 15 miles (25 kilometres) south of Tehran, was stormed by militants. At least 17
people were killed and up to 40 people wounded.
This attack, claimed by IS, was unprecedented in that it was the first attack on Tehran
since 2010. The short-lived nature and rarity of attacks highlight the capabilities of the security
forces in Iran. During Ramadan in 2016, the security forces claimed they thwarted a large-scale
attack that targeted Tehran and other major cities. Although attacks on urban centres remain
unlikely, the 2017 attacks mean that a heightened security presence should be anticipated
throughout the country.
There is also a possibility of an uptick in protest activity owing to widespread anti-
government demonstrations in January 2018. Should protests break out, these will be
forcibly dispersed by the security forces, with credible incidental risks and risk of arrest posed to
bystanders. There are also annual anti-Western protests known as Al-Quds day which are held
on the last Friday of Ramadan. Heightened security measures will be in place.
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Security risks by region - MENA
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Israel/West Bank
Palestinian militant factions maintain an expressed intent to launch attacks at all times
irrespective of Ramadan. While Ramadan places upward pressure on our security risk ratings
throughout the region, effective measures implemented by the Israeli security forces heavily
restrict the capability of militant factions, meaning the risk environment remains stable
throughout Israel and the West Bank. Violent unrest is also reported year-round, though the
security forces disperse any such gatherings at the first sign of trouble.
Due to the capability of the security forces, attacks are generally restricted to
unsophisticated stabbings and vehicle-rammings. These attacks typically target security
personnel stationed at checkpoints, border crossings, settlement entranceways and major
highways in the West Bank. Shootings involving homemade firearms have also been reported
on an infrequent basis, although recent security operations have reduced the availability of such
weapons. Attacks will be largely focused against the security forces and pose incidental risks to
bystanders. During Ramadan in 2017, two Palestinians fired at Israeli police officers in the Old
City of Jerusalem, wounding four. An additional nearby stabbing attack took place, and resulted
in one police officer being killed.
Saudi Arabia
There is a heightened risk of militant activity during Ramadan, with Islamist militant groups
such as IS maintaining a determined intent to carry out attacks. A heightened security posture
will partially mitigate risks, though the anticipated volume of plots means attacks remain likely.
The threat posed by IS militancy places upward pressure on our MODERATE security risk
rating throughout the Ramadan period.
Unsophisticated attacks, such as vehicle-rammings and stabbings pose the greatest
risks as they are extremely difficult to prevent. Heightened security measures have reduced
the risk of high-impact bombing and firearms attacks which require significant planning and
coordination, leaving plotters vulnerable to detection. While these attacks cannot be ruled out,
their relative complexity mean unsophisticated attacks have become an increasingly central
facet of IS strategy.
The Saudi forces are capable of preventing attacks, underscored by the prevention of a
major terrorist attack on the Grand Mosque in Mecca in June 2017. The assailant
exchanged fire with the security forces, before detonating a suicide device in a residential area
near Mecca. However, the threat from militancy is not completely eradicated. In July 2016,
three separate attacks were carried out simultaneously; one at the Prophet’s Mosque in
Medina, killing four and wounding five others, another at a Shia Muslim mosque in Qatif District
killing only the attackers, and the final one at the US consulate in Jeddah that wounded two
security officers. There is a further threat posed by the Houthi militants in Yemen, who have
expressed intent to target religious sites in the Saudi interior. The threat is nevertheless
mitigated by the reliability of Saudi Patriot missile defence systems.
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8Security risks by region - MENA
Tunisia
Previous trends indicate that public agitation and unrest are likely. The Mouch Bessif
group (meaning ‘not against our will’) organised demonstrations in Tunis in 2017 and other
large urban centres to protest for the right not to fast, which culminated in several people being
detained. The demonstrations were in response to the arrest of a man in Bizerte who was
apprehended for smoking in public during fasting hours, something that is not illegal in Tunisia.
Protests often result in the police using tear gas and forceful methods of dispersal.
Although foreign nationals are unlikely to be targeted, travellers should avoid any large
gatherings due to the risk of incidental violence. Relocate to a secure location should protests
arise. Flashpoint locations include Al-Waslatiyah, Bouhajla, El-Guettar, El-Kef, Firyanah,
Kasserine, Melloulèche, Sabita, Sidi Bouzid, Tala, Tebourba. The security forces carry out
regular raids and operations to counter terror cells loyal to al-Qaeda militants and IS which
somewhat negates the threat posed by Islamist militants. Nonetheless, militant groups
maintain determined intent to carry out attacks on high profile locations during
Ramadan. These include hotels, shopping centres, tourist sites and restaurants.
United Arab Emirates
Ramadan increases the latent risk of militant activity, though our security risk rating
remains MINIMAL. Our security risk rating is a result of the stable security environment, which
despite the existence of numerous attractive targets, lacks any credible threat actors. The
primary risk posed to travellers takes the form of organised and petty crime, though rates of
both generally decrease in more affluent Gulf countries during Ramadan.
Nonetheless, Islamist militants do pose a threat to all Gulf countries. Islamist extremist
groups including, but not limited, to IS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) continue
to publicly threaten Westerners in the Arabian Peninsula, and attacks targeting Westerners
have occurred in neighbouring countries. Heightened security measures should be
anticipated, particularly in areas surrounding mosques during evening prayers and
central tourist areas, though this is not a cause for concern.
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9General security advice
As a standard security precaution, travellers should minimise time spent in unsecured,
crowded areas in the immediate vicinity of government infrastructure and religious sites.
Plan itineraries to account for the reduction in business hours during Ramadan,
arrange business meetings in the morning where possible.
Refrain from photographing worshippers during prayers.
Locals in observant communities may be more tired and irritable than usual, and as such,
travellers should be patient in interactions.
Dress modestly and respect local cultures; foreign travellers are usually afforded some
leeway in regard to conservative dress but there are been reports of attacks on foreigners in
recent years due to perceived disrespect.
Adopting common sense precautions will largely mitigate any risks posed by opportunistic
crime. Travellers should avoid carrying valuables on their person and leave them
locked in a hotel safe; better still, avoid bringing them altogether. When carrying essential,
high-value goods, travellers should avoid overt displays of wealth and take care not to
attract unwanted attention, particularly in more remote areas located away from central
thoroughfares.
Where possible, travellers should seek to book transport through trusted local providers
(hotels will often provide details). It is strongly advised that travel is avoided in the hours
preceding and immediately following iftar when traffic is most intense and the frequency of
traffic collisions is highest. Ensure adequate supplies of non-perishable food and water are
kept in accommodation in order to avoid unnecessary travel during peak times (around
sundown).
Contact the Healix GSOC for further country-specific information or pre-trip travel
advice.
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10Regional advice
Region Advice
Africa Cultural
• In Muslim-majority West African countries, believers abstain from eating
or drinking during daylight hours, and are also expected to refrain from
other un-Islamic behaviour including smoking.
Female Travellers
• Females should wear loose-fitting clothes and have their shoulders and
legs covered in coastal areas of Tanzania, as well as Chad, Mauritania,
Mali, Niger, Kenya and rural areas of Sudan. In more conservative areas
such as Somalia, north-eastern Nigeria, north-eastern Mali and Darfur,
female travellers should wear a headscarf.
Disruption
• Islamic communities are found mostly in coastal areas of East Africa, so
any travel disruption should be limited to these areas. Most hotelis (small
restaurants) close during daylight hours, and fasting is widespread. There
is little pressure for non-Muslims to participate. Public transport and
official business aren't generally affected in Mombasa and Malindi, but
expect disruptions further up the coast.
APAC Cultural
• Be aware that traditions and cultural practices may differ not only between
regions, but also within countries. For instance, restrictions during
Ramadan are expected to be more strict in Aceh than in other provinces
in Indonesia.
• Be mindful that when invited for iftar, travellers are advised to use their
right hand to eat as the left hand is typically used for bodily hygiene.
Security Considerations
• Travel to countries like Afghanistan or Pakistan where there is a HIGH
and above security risk rating would require travelers to adhere to security
precautions which includes taking professional profile and travel-risk
assessments.
Female Travellers
• In conservative countries, like Pakistan and Afghanistan, women should
wear loose fitting clothes and a headscarf. Female travellers should
remain vigilant and cover their legs and shoulders in less conservative
Muslim majority areas.
11Regional advice
Region Advice
MENA Security and Cultural Considerations
• Laws are much more stringent in Saudi Arabia and Iran than other
countries in the region. Liaise with local contacts in order to understand
specific local laws and customs.
• We strongly recommend minimising non-essential travel in the immediate
vicinity of security infrastructure and Shia Muslim religious sites in Iran
and Saudi Arabia, as these are priority targets for the IS militant group.
Where travel to these sites is essential or unavoidable, care should be
taken to minimise time spent in crowded entranceways and unsecured
areas.
• Avoid all Coptic Christian sites in Egypt where there is no reason to
attend, as these have been common targets for attacks in the past.
Minimise time spent on the outskirts of churches if attending, and identify
easily accessible exit routes.
• Travellers should liaise with trusted local fixers when travelling to the
West Bank and ensure that itinerary-specific planning identifies likely
flashpoint areas. Where possible, routes should be planned to avoid
these areas and time spent in their vicinity minimised.
Female Travellers
• Women should cover their knees and shoulders in order to avoid
attracting attention; security personnel may enact stricter rules during the
month of Ramadan. This does not apply for urban centres in Israel,
although discretion should be maintained in Muslim majority areas, such
as Jaffa in Tel Aviv. This also applies for urban centres in Morocco,
Tunisia and Turkey.
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