Scottish Fiscal Commission Corporate Plan 2022 2025
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Scottish Fiscal Commission Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Content
Foreword Page 3
About us Page 4
Summary Page 5
What we do Page 6
Our vision Page 7
Strategic objectives Page 8
Measuring performance Page 12
Values Page 17
Resources Page 24
Page 2 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Foreword
s we enter our sixth tax revenues, and in-year funding been launched will bed in.
A year, we look back at
how the Commission
aCommission
has matured.
have built our own models of
the Scottish economy, of the
changes. We’ve published new
information about public finances
and persuaded other
organisations to publish more
data. The Covid-19 pandemic
Reconciliations will continue to
be a routine part of the Scottish
Budget process. The fiscal
framework will be reviewed,
and public debate on an
Dame Susan
Rice
various devolved taxes and of the and the UK’s exit from the independence referendum may
various social security payments. European Union have made this bring more attention to the future
We have developed an expert a particularly difficult period for of Scottish public finances.
staff,
We collaborative working economic forecasting. The
culture and strong relationships invasion of Ukraine and energy Professor Francis
Guarding our independence will
with Scottish Government, price rises will further affect the Breedon
remain crucial so that people
Scottish Parliament, Office for economic outlook. can trust our forecasts and
Budgetary Responsibility and assessments. The objectives and
our data providers. The OECD’s values in this Corporate Plan will
review in 2019 concluded that From this solid foundation we
look forward to the challenges
guide us through these coming Professor David
we have firmly established our years, helping us to bring further
and opportunities of the next Ulph
independence. rigour, clarity and transparency to
three years. the Scottish Budget.
We’ve brought complex issues Our work will expand to include
into the spotlight of the Budget fiscal sustainability – the
scrutiny process, such as analysis of the long-term risks
variations in forecasts and and uncertainties that face the
block grant adjustments, fiscal Scottish Government’s public
framework borrowing and reserve finances. The new Scottish
limits, high earners and income disability payments that have
Page 3 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
About us
We are an independent fiscal institution,
created by the Scottish Parliament.
What are independent fiscal institutions? We exist for two main purposes.
As defined by the Organisation for Economic Firstly, the Scottish Budget being based on
Co-operation and Development, independent independent forecasts means that the public
fiscal institutions are “publicly funded, can have confidence in the figures used.
independent bodies [with] statutory authority
… which provide non-partisan oversight and Secondly, reporting regularly on how the
analysis of, and in some cases advice on, Scottish Budget is funded and on the
changes and risks that arise, improves
fiscal policy and performance.”1
transparency and aids scrutiny of the Budget.
[1] OECD (2014) Recommendation on Principles for
Independent Fiscal Institution (link)
Page 4 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Summary
What we do Our Vision Our Values
We produce independent, robust forecasts The Scottish Budget is transparent and Everyone can trust our work because:
and assessments to improve the transparency well-scrutinised, and Government and
We are independent – we are impartial,
and scrutiny of the Scottish Budget. Parliament understand the uncertainties and
honest and objective
risks relating to devolved public finances.
We work well with others
We are transparent and promote transparency
in Scottish public finances
Our Strategic Objectives Our Commissioners We explain complex matters clearly and make
Provide robust, independent, official forecasts our work easy to access
Dame Susan Rice
of Scotland’s economy, devolved tax We produce quality work which informs public
revenues and social security spending. Professor Francis Breedon
debate
Professor David Ulph
Explain what our forecasts and analysis mean
for the Scottish Budget.
Analyse and explain the medium and longer Our Resources in 2022-23
term risks to the Scottish Budget.
£2.303 million
Be an effective and efficient organisation with
skilled, knowledgeable people. 23.4 staff (full-time equivalent)
Page 5 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Our mission - what we do
We produce independent, robust forecasts and assessments to improve the
transparency and scrutiny of Scotland’s Budget.
We produce the official, We can choose to report on
independent economic, tax and anything that influences the
social security forecasts. These resources available to the
include the official costings for tax Scottish Government. We publish
and social security policies. We information about changes to the
provide these independent Scottish Budget during the year,
forecasts and assess the Scottish and we will publish our first Fiscal
Government’s borrowing twice Sustainability Report for Scotland
a year, usually alongside the in 2023.
Scottish Budget and Medium
Term Financial Strategy. We also publish statements of
our data needs which describe
For transparency, we publish the main areas where we believe
information on how our forecasts improvements are required in
are produced, and the the data and information we use
assumptions and judgments we for forecasting, and occasional
made in producing the forecasts. papers explaining particular
We also publish evaluations of issues.
the accuracy of our forecasts
once outturn data are available.
Page 6 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Our vision – why we do it
The Scottish Budget is transparent and well-scrutinised, and Government and
Parliament understand the inevitable uncertainties and risks relating to devolved
public finances.
The OECD explains that When we consider new areas of
“Independent fiscal institutions work, alternative approaches,
have the potential to enhance or think about whether we have
fiscal discipline, promote been successful, we can ask
greater budget transparency ourselves “Has this / Will this
and accountability and raise the make the Scottish Budget
quality of public debate on fiscal better-scrutinised or more
policy… They are associated with transparent? Will this help
stronger fiscal performance... and Government make the best
can help countries to address possible use of finances despite
bias towards spending and uncertainties? Will this help
deficits.” Parliament understand an
important risk to the Scottish
Budget?”
We don’t expect to be able to
deliver this vision alone, but we
do want to make a clear
statement of why the
Commission exists.
Page 7 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Strategic Objectives
Our strategic objectives set out what we do to fulfil our
mission - producing independent, robust forecasts and
assessments to improve the transparency and scrutiny of
the Scottish Budget. Our annual business plans give more
detailed information about the work planned.
Provide robust, independent, official forecasts
of Scotland’s economy, devolved tax
revenues and social security spending
Explain what our forecasts and analysis mean
for the Scottish Budget
Analyse and explain the medium and longer
term risks to the Scottish Budget
Be an effective and efficient organisation with
skilled, knowledgeable people
Page 8 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Strategic Strategic
objective: objective:
Provide robust, independent, official forecasts of Explain what our forecasts and analysis mean for the
Scotland’s economy, devolved tax revenues and Scottish Budget
social security spending.
To produce good forecasts our Forecasting models can be We have developed unique
data, models and judgements complicated; with all our models expertise by producing economic
must all be robust. we aim to find the right balance and fiscal forecasts. This means
between transparency, story- we can produce high quality,
We need reliable, accurate and
telling, complexity and forecast independent analysis of important
timely data and information, so
accuracy. The OECD technical issues that are not generally well
we build strong relationships with
assessment deemed all of our understood. We try to explain
our data providers. We also have
models appropriate. We follow both how our forecasts are
a right of access with Scottish
a rigorous quality assurance produced and what they mean
public bodies and publish
process, with three rounds of for the Budget - the “so what?”
statements of data needs to set
checks for every major report. – in a way that is understandable
out our priorities for improving
and accessible. We publish
data.2 For good judgements, we this analysis and provide clear
need expert Commissioners assessment of our forecast
with diversity of thought, good accuracy. This adds transparency
intelligence about potential to the Scottish Budget and the
developments and a culture complex Fiscal Framework.
of debate and constructive
[2] Scottish Fiscal Commission (2022) challenge.
Statements of Data Needs (link)
Page 9 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission
Content Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Strategic Strategic
objective: objective:
Analyse and explain the medium and longer term Be an effective and efficient organisation with
risks to the Scottish Budget skilled, knowledgeable people.
The Scottish Budget, and scrutiny In 2023 we will produce our first Having the right people, We want to make sure the SFC is
of it, needs to consider both the fiscal sustainability report which performing well, is essential a great place to work, so that our
immediate financial year and the considers the likely path of for our small organisation. people can give their best. And
potential effect on future years. spending, tax revenues and other Our people should be able we must also make sure we are
Currently we explain the risks balance sheet items over the next to bring their whole selves to well-run to avoid damaging the
which we anticipate becoming 30 to 50 years. Issues such as work and thrive in our culture. credibility of our forecasts. This
important to the Scottish Budget health spending, income tax They should feel empowered, means responsive leadership,
over a five year horizon. We also revenues, Scottish social security respected and supported. We robust governance and effective
give clear assessments of how payments and net zero emissions invest in our people and we and efficient administration. We
accurate our forecasts turned could be covered. We anticipate make specific commitments to learn from and collaborate with
out to be, so that everyone can that future reports will be published make us a more inclusive and others to help us achieve this.
understand the risks associated at least once in each Parliamentary diverse organisation. We want the
with forecasting and the effects session. capacity for economic and fiscal We review our work programme
that can have on the Budget. analysis in Scotland to grow. to see where we can add greater
The current fiscal framework value and best use our resources
means that fiscal risks do not arise to improve quality.
if changes in revenues and
spending in Scotland are
mirrored in the rest of the United
Kingdom. But different pressures on
spending or different changes in tax
revenues could present sustainability
issues for the Scottish Budget.
Page 10 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Our main activities
Spring Summer Autumn Winter
Scottish Economic and Fiscal Forecasts Annual Report and Accounts Annual Report and Scottish Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
Fiscal updates Model development Accounts Forecast Fiscal updates
Evidence to Parliament Evaluation Report Evidence to Parliament
Public engagement events Public engagement events
Staff Survey
As required 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25
Policy costings Scoping paper for Fiscal Sustainability Fiscal Sustainability Report for Scotland Statutory evaluation of Commission
Occasional papers Statement of Data Needs Statement of Data Needs
Accessibility of publications and websites
Stakeholder Survey
Page 11 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
How are we performing
We report on our performance in our annual report and
accounts, and in our annual forecast evaluation reports.
Every five years we also commission an external,
statutory, independent review of our performance; the
next review is due in 2024-25.
Much of our performance should be judged on the quality
of our outputs: we strive for accurate forecasts. Our
performance can rarely be measured by figures alone.
Where we do publish numerical indicators, we will explain
the context and how to interpret the indicator.
Page 12 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Measuring
performance:
Robust, independent, What we
publish?
What we
publish?
What we
publish?
official forecasts Forecast evaluation Statement of data needs Number of forecasts and policy
costings
When and When and When and where?
where? where?
Annually Biannual Annual report
Website Website
What does it show? What does it show? What does it show?
How our past forecasts compare Outline the data we require to Volume of forecasting work
to outturn data create our forecasts produced
Evaluates how our past forecasts
compare to outturn data
How our forecast accuracy
compares to that of the OBR’s
forecasts for the rest of the UK
Lessons for our next forecast
Other indicators of good performance
Maintain voluntary compliance with the official code of statistics
Page 13 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Measuring
performance:
Explain what forecasts What we
publish?
What we
publish?
What we
publish?
mean for Scottish Parliamentary Indicators Interest and Coverage Events indicators
Budget
When and When and When and
Explain medium and where? where? where?
Annual Report Annual Report Annual report
longer term risks
What does it show? What does it show? What does it show?
How often we appear at Scottish Website hits on publication pages Number of events and
Parliament Committees attendance
How often we are referenced in Media coverage Summary event feedback
Committee reports
How often we are cited in Twitter coverage
Committee meetings
Page 14 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Measuring
performance:
Explain what forecasts What we
publish?
What we
publish?
What we
publish?
mean for Scottish Website accessibility Stakeholder survey Website user survey
Budget
When and When and When and
Explain medium and where? where? where?
Website Website Website
longer term risks (approximately every three years) (approximately every three years) (approximately three years)
What does it show? What does it show? What does it show?
Results of an independent audit Results of qualitative and User views on content and ease
of website accessibility quantitative survey of our key of use
stakeholders
Other indicators of good performance
Invitations to present to other organisations or externally
organised events
Page 15 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Measuring
performance:
Be an effective and What we
publish?
What we
publish?
What we
publish?
efficient organisation Staffing and Diversity Information Public body corporate indicators External Audit report
with skilled,
knowledgeable people When and When and When and
where? where? where?
Annual Report Annual Report Annually
Website
What does it show? What does it show? What does it show?
Staff survey results Number of complaints Audit opinion on annual report
and accounts
Number of leavers and joiners in Number of leavers and joiners in
a year and turnover a year and turnover Audit conclusions on
performance management,
Sickness absence Number of freedom of information corporate governance,
requests financial position and financial
Gender Pay Gap
Invoices paid within 10 days sustainability
Pay ratio
Gender composition of
Commissioners, staff and
committee appearances
Summary recruitment diversity
information
Page 16 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Our values
Our values express the personality of our organisation.
These principles guide how we go about everything we OECD Principles for Independent Fiscal Institutions, the
do, how we approach any new work and they help us to Civil Service Code, the Code of Practice for Statistics
be mindful of our longer term vision in our daily work. and the Code of Practice for Commissioners.
We want to make sure that our work and our assessments
can be trusted. Having the right values, and embodying We are independent - we are impartial, honest and
them in all that we do, is essential for that. objective in everything we do.
We work well with others
We are as transparent as we can be and promote
transparency in Scottish public finances.
We explain complex matters clearly and make our work
easy to access
We produce quality work which informs public debate.
Page 17 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We follow the OECD Principles for Independent Fiscal
Institutions, the Civil Service Code, the Code of Practice for
Statistics and the Code of Practice for Commissioners.
Code of Practice for Civil Service Code 4 OECD IFI core values 5 Commissioner Code
Statistics 3 of Conduct 6
Trustworthiness - having Integrity is putting the obligations Independence Duties
confidence in the people and of public service above your own
organisations that produce personal interests Non-partisanship Selflessness
statistics and data. Transparency Integrity
Honesty is being truthful and
Quality - using data and methods open Accountability Objectivity
that produce assured statistics. Technical competence Accountability and Stewardship
Objectivity is basing your advice
Value - producing statistics that and decisions on rigorous Relevant work of the highest Openness
support society’s needs for analysis of the evidence quality
Honesty
information. Impartiality is acting solely
according to the merits of the Leadership
[3] Code of Practice for Statistics (link)
[4] The Civil Service Code (link) case and serving equally well Respect
[5] OECD (2014) Recommendation on governments of different political
Principles for Independent Fiscal persuasions
Institutions (link)
[6] Scottish Fiscal Commission (2021)
Code of Conduct for Members of the
Scottish Fiscal Commission (link)
Page 18 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We are independent -
we are impartial, honest and objective in everything we do.
Our independence is essential to Our structural and operational However, we are conscious that aspects of our work
us so that our work is able to be independence is set out in the could be misunderstood or deliberately misconstrued as
equally trusted by all participants Scottish Fiscal Commission Act favouring a particular political party or position. We take
in public life. We are independent 2016. other measures to assure our independence.
of the Scottish Government, UK
Government, Scottish Parliament In particular: In particular:
and all political parties.
The content and conclusions Comply voluntarily with the Code of Practice for Statistics,
of our reports are the including pre-announcing publications
sole responsibility of the
Commissioners Publish a log of our correspondence and contact with
Scottish Government Ministers and Special Advisers
The Chief Executive is
accountable to the Scottish Require a written indication of our funding from the
Parliament for the use of Scottish Government for the next three years
resources
Always have independence as a category in our risk
Commissioner appointments must management framework
be approved by the Scottish
Parliament
Page 19 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We work well with others.
We are open to others’ ideas – In particular:
whether that be Commissioners
listening to all our analysts or We have a collaborative culture: We work with partners and peers
formal forecast meetings with we ask for help, we encourage in the UK and internationally
Government. Inviting comments our colleagues to critique our to share knowledge and best
and feedback, both internally work and we offer support and practice.
and externally, helps us to build challenge
trust by understanding our
users’ needs and whether we
have missed or misunderstood We seek feedback on our We are active in networks of other
important factors that could processes, reports, events and Independent Fiscal Institutions
affect our forecasts. It also allows website and other Scottish Public Bodies
us to consider and try new
approaches.
We understand the challenges
facing the organisations we rely
on for the data and information
we need to produce robust
forecasts and work with them to
find solutions
Page 20 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We are as transparent as we can be and promote transparency
in Scottish public finances.
Transparency is essential In particular:
for building trust in our
independence and in the We are transparent about We welcome scrutiny. Most We encourage transparency
quality of our forecasts. We are our forecasting methods and obviously this takes place from other organisations. Our
committed to transparency in assumptions. We explain through our appearances in Statements of Data Needs
everything we do. our assessment of the risks front of the Scottish Parliament’s request the publication
and benefits of each source Committees. We also engage of accessible, timely
of information. We publish actively with the media, external information. We encourage our
supplementary spreadsheets on experts and other stakeholders, data providers to align their data
our website. and hold public events to make it developments with the practices
easier to question our work. We and principles for production
publish our Forecast Evaluation of official statistics to enhance
We comply with the Code of
Report annually to help people to the transparency of the data
Practice for Statistics voluntarily
scrutinise our work. we use. We encourage other
and in 2020, we won the first ever
organisations to publish more
Voluntary Application of the Code
fiscal information.
Award.
We publish our corporate
policies, reports and minutes.
We follow a robust error policy
and publish our corrections and
revisions.
Page 21 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We explain complex matters clearly and make our work
easy to access.
Information and analysis is of In particular:
little use if no-one can access it,
use it or understand it. So we are
committed to making our We produce summaries and We raise awareness of our work,
forecasts, our reports, and infographics of our work to for example through holding our
responses deliver direct, clear messages own media conferences and
to queries accessible and for a range of users and open public events following the
understandable. requirements Scottish Budget.
We produce a detailed report and We continue to work on
supplementary tables for more improving the accessibility of our
technical users website and publications and
we recognise the shortcomings
We limit the length of our of pdf reports and excel
publications spreadsheets.
We are responsive to user
needs and we will survey our
stakeholders and website users
periodically to make sure we
understand those needs.
Page 22 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Values
:
We produce quality work which informs public debate.
This value informs much of our In particular:
planning and our decisions. we
ask ourselves: Is it relevant? Will
it inform public debate? Can we We engage with the Scottish We have a rigorous internal
do this to a high quality? How Government, Scottish Parliament quality assurance process for our
can we increase the quality or and other stakeholders to check reports and voluntarily comply
add greater value? that the work we plan will be with the Code of Practice for
useful to them. Statistics.
We recruit openly to find the best We do not shy away from
people then support and develop delivering analysis which the
them, so that we have highly UK Government, Scottish
skilled people performing well. Government or Scottish
Parliament might find challenging.
Page 23 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Resources
People Commissioners
The Commission employs around 23.4 FTE (full-time staff equivalent) permanent
staff, led by John Ireland, the Commission’s Chief Executive. Dame Susan Rice
Chair
Chief Executive Appointment ends
June 2022
Senior
Management Professor David Ulph
Team
Appointment ends
October 2022
Governance
Social Public
Economy Tax Securit Funding & Corporate
y Services Professor Francis Breedon
Appointment ends
October 2022
Page 24 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal CommissionContent Foreword About us What we do Our vision Strategic Measuring Values Resources
Objectives Performance
Finance
The Commission receives an annual budget
2022-23 Budget Operating costs 2020-218
approved by Parliament in the Scottish
Staff costs
Budget process. We also receive an indicative £2,303,000
budget for the subsequent two financial years, Commissioner costs
in line with the OECD’s Principles for 2023-24 (indicative) Shared
Independent Fiscal Institutions.7 £84K £151K
services and
£2,383,000 audit
Around 75 per cent of the Commission’s
core budget is allocated to staffing, with the Other costs
remaining covering running costs. Staff are 2024-25 (indicative) Refurbishment
employed on the same terms, conditions,
grading, and remuneration arrangements as £2,557,000 £221K
Scottish Government staff.
The Commission uses shared corporate
£128K
services for IT, HR, payroll, finance systems, £1,401K
legal services, procurement and internal audit.
The current provider for these is the Scottish
Government.
[7] Correspondence (2022) Cabinet Secretary for Finance and
Economy to Dame Susan Rice DBE (link)
[8] Scottish Fiscal Commission (2021) Annual Report and
Accounts (link)
Page 25 Corporate Plan 2022 - 2025 Scottish Fiscal Commission© Crown copyright 2022 This publication is available at www.fiscalcommission.scot Published by the Scottish Fiscal Commission, April 2022
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