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Rural adaptation to
climate change
94
ACIAR TECHNICAL REPORTS
Rural adaptation to
climate change
Jikun Huang, Jinxia Wang, Khoi Dang Kim, Herb Plunkett, Ying Xu
and Christopher Findlay
2020
The Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) was established in June 1982 by an Act of the
Australian Parliament. ACIAR operates as part of Australia’s international development cooperation program, with a
mission to achieve more productive and sustainable agricultural systems, for the benefit of developing countries and
Australia. It commissions collaborative research between Australian and developing-country researchers in areas
where Australia has special research competence. It also administers Australia’s contribution to the International
Agricultural Research Centres.
The Chief Executive Officer of ACIAR reports directly to the Australian Government Minister for Foreign Affairs.
ACIAR operates solely on budget appropriation from Australia’s Official Development Assistance (ODA).
The use of trade names constitutes neither endorsement of nor discrimination against any product by ACIAR.
ACIAR TECHNICAL REPORTS SERIES
This series of publications contains technical information resulting from ACIAR-supported programs,
projects and workshops (for which proceedings are not published); reports on ACIAR-supported fact-finding
studies; or reports on other topics resulting from ACIAR activities. Publications in the series are available as
hard copy, in limited numbers, and online from the ACIAR website at aciar.gov.au
© Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) 2020
This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced
by any process without prior written permission from ACIAR, GPO Box 1571, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia,
aciar@aciar.gov.au
Huang, J, Wang, J, Dang, KK, Plunkett, H, Xu, Y & Findlay, C 2020, Rural adaptation to climate change, ACIAR Technical
Reports Series, No. 94, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra, pp. 32.
ACIAR Technical Reports No. 94 (TR094)
ISSN 0816-7923 (print)
ISSN 1447-0918 (pdf)
ISBN 978-1-922345-39-4 (print)
ISBN 978-1-922345-23-3 (pdf)
Technical editing by SuperScript Writing and Editing
Design by Redtail Graphic Design
Cover: Farmer in a ‘safe vegetables’ farm in Vietnam. Photo: Khan LongForeword
Millions of farmers in East and South-East Asia are responding to climate change, whether
they know it or not. They risk poverty by not responding proactively. Adaptation to a
changing climate will come about through practices and policies at household, farm, market
and government levels.
The Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) is mandated under
the ACIAR Act (1982) to work with partners across the Indo-Pacific region to generate the
knowledge and technologies that underpin improvements in agricultural productivity,
sustainability and food systems resilience. We do this by funding, brokering and managing
research partnerships for the benefit of partner countries and Australia.
This technical report presents the findings of an ACIAR project that examined the effects
and potential benefits of responses to climate change in rice markets in China and Vietnam.
The project provided a social sciences dimension to the study of climate change. Its primary
objectives were to identify those farmers most at risk from climate change and then to
identify policy responses to assist their adaptation and adjustment.
The research found that some farmers were responding to climate change mostly by
adopting changes in farm management practices. However, adoption is dependent on
the relative advantage to be realised from innovation. The research also found that the
incentive for farmers to act was influenced by the policy environment, the institutional
environment and investment by governments. Because planned and institutional measures
are in the hands of various levels of government, the research reinforced the importance
of coordination to develop a cohesive package of measures for farmers to address climate
change at the farm level.
Understanding farmers’ adaptation strategies and decision-making processes is important
for designing future policy interventions to ameliorate and prevent the adverse effects of
extreme weather events on farming systems. I look forward to the contribution that this
research will make to understanding the interaction of farmers and government when
responding and adapting to climate change.
Importantly, this work also contributes to a strategic objective of ACIAR, of building
knowledge to support managing natural resources and producing food more sustainably,
adapting to climate variability and mitigating climate change.
Andrew Campbell
Chief Executive Officer, ACIAR
iContents
Foreword............................................................................................................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgments................................................................................................................................................................... iv
Authors................................................................................................................................................................................................ iv
Introduction..................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Structural change in China and Vietnam............................................................................................................ 2
Effects and potential benefits of adaptations............................................................................................... 4
Channels of effects.............................................................................................................................................................................4
National, regional and sectoral studies...............................................................................................................................4
ACIAR farm-level studies................................................................................................................................................................6
Chapter 1 Forms of adaptation.................................................................................................................................... 8
Chapter 2 Farmers’ information and perceptions.................................................................................. 11
Chapter 3 Other drivers of adaptation..............................................................................................................13
Household characteristics......................................................................................................................................................... 13
Land tenure........................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
Water allocation regimens......................................................................................................................................................... 14
Labour markets.................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Social capital......................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Chapter 4 Market signals................................................................................................................................................ 16
Chapter 5 Infrastructure................................................................................................................................................. 17
Adaptation and policy options....................................................................................................................................18
Conclusion......................................................................................................................................................................................19
Appendix: sampling methodology.........................................................................................................................20
References...................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Sources from ‘Assessing farmer responses to climate change — adjustment policy
options’ (ACIAR project ADP/2011/039).............................................................................................................................21
Other sources......................................................................................................................................................................................24
iiiAcknowledgments This technical report is a summary of other reports prepared from research conducted in the ACIAR project, ‘Assessing farmer responses to climate change—adjustment policy options’ (ADP/2011/039). Authors Jikun Huang China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University Jinxia Wang China Center for Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Sciences, Peking University Khoi Dang Kim Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development Herb Plunkett Independent Public Policy Professional Ying Xu Research Fellow, Centre for Global Food and Resources, The University of Adelaide Christopher Findlay Emeritus Professor, The University of Adelaide iv | TECHNICAL REPORT 94
Introduction
Climate change is a new source of pressure weather events. No two such events are
for adaptation in farming systems (Cooper likely to be the same. Understanding
et al. 2008; Thornton & Herrero 2015; Huang farmers’ adaptation strategies and decision-
& Sim 2017). In particular, the number of making processes is therefore important in
extreme events such as droughts, floods designing policy interventions to ameliorate
and severe storms (Easterling et al. 2000) is and prevent the adverse effects of extreme
increasing (Adger et al. 2003). Consequently, weather events on farming.
welfare effects are likely to be significant
In considering existing and new policy
(Howden et al. 2007). Farmers in developing
measures that might improve rural
countries are likely to be more vulnerable
adaptation to climate change, it is also
(Adger et al. 2003). There are different
useful to consider the perceptions farmers
channels for adaptation to these events, at
have about the effects of climate change,
the levels of markets and of households.
the conditions governing their access
Trade can ameliorate the effects of extreme to land and water, and the supporting
weather events on local markets, through infrastructure available to them, both
access to farm produce from less affected physical and social.
regions. Extreme weather events elsewhere
Our research project was undertaken with
may create new market opportunities for
support from the Australian Centre for
local producers. Opening markets to trade is
International Agricultural Research (ACIAR).
therefore an important means of adapting
We focused on the economies of China and
to climate change, so that inter-regional
Vietnam, and we review our results here
adjustments in production and consumption
along with those of related literature. In the
buffer the severity of the effects of climate
next section we outline changes over recent
change (Reilly & Hohmann 1993).
years in the structure of the agricultural
At the farm household level, adaptation is a sectors in China and Vietnam. Following
key strategy that can alleviate the severity that is a review of the recorded effects and
of climate change effects on agriculture and potential benefits of adaptations to climate
food production (Alam, Alam & Mushtaq change, as revealed by the research results
2017). The risks associated with extreme from the project to date. We give specific
weather events are highly uncertain, attention in the subsequent sections to:
and the adaptations farmers make to • forms of adaptation
accommodate them are significantly
• farmers’ information and perceptions
different from the day-to-day adaptations
of existing farming practices traditionally • other drivers of adaptation, such as
made in response to seasonal fluctuations household characteristics, land tenure,
in climate (Adger et al. 2003). Traditional water allocation, labour markets and
adaptations are based on methods that social capital
have proven successful in the past. Those • market signals
adaptations are continually being tested • infrastructure.
and refined. However, there is no store
We then discuss adaptation and
of knowledge and learned experience
policy options.
for coping with infrequent and extreme
1Structural change in China and Vietnam
China and Vietnam are countries in The land area in both economies is small
transition, where the agricultural economies relative to the populations, and the area
have been growing with significant of cultivated land has been falling as
transformation (International Fund for urbanisation occurs. Arable land is now
Agricultural Development [IFAD] 2016). 0.09 ha/person in China and 0.11 ha/person
Agricultural gross domestic product growth in Vietnam. IFAD has highlighted the big
rates in China and Vietnam were 4.2% increase in land equipped for irrigation
and 3.4%, respectively, over the period in China (from 38% to 55% since 1990),
2000–2015. Productivity in agriculture but that the proportion of land equipped
has increased at a rate of 4% per year for irrigation in Vietnam has remained at
in China and 3% per year in Vietnam. around 45% (IFAD 2016, Table 2.3). Average
Drivers of growth included the use of farm size is less than 1 ha in both China and
irrigation and farm chemicals, investments Vietnam, which is the smallest in Asia. The
in infrastructure, policy reforms and average farm size increased in China by 37%
technological changes. Agricultural from 2003 to 2013 (Huang & Ding 2016).
production has also gradually shifted from
Food consumption has been growing and
grains to higher-value-added products such
changing. Despite the strong productivity
as horticulture, livestock and fisheries in
growth discussed above, imports of food
response to changes in consumption. The
have been increasing in both economies,
ongoing changes are an important part of
and labour and land inputs to agriculture
the context of designing policy to respond
have been declining. The cost of labour
to the risks associated with climate change.
has been increasing and the production of
Another important change in rural areas some foods has declined as farm resources
is the growth of off-farm employment. In have been used to expand the production
China, 70% of the rural population now of other foods. This process has been
has some form of off-farm employment happening more rapidly in China, which
(National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015, became a net food importer in 2004, mainly
quoted by IFAD 2016). In Vietnam, the share because of imports of oilseeds. While other
of rural household income attributed to commodities are traded, on balance, it has
agriculture fell from 43% in 2002 to 32% in remained nearly self-sufficient in them. Until
2012. Over the same period, the proportion 2011, however, Vietnam remained a net
of the population living in urban areas food exporter.
increased dramatically, from 20% in 1980 in
China to 54% in 2013, and from 15% to 33%
in Vietnam.
2 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94The change in trade patterns has led to In China, there has been a focus on the
concerns about Vietnam’s food supply self- supply of staple goods, despite their falling
sufficiency. The Vietnamese government share of consumption. Since 1996, the
issued a resolution mandating a minimum target has been for 95% self-sufficiency
land area of 3.8 million ha devoted to rice in grain. The main policy instruments
production and that at least one rice crop for this purpose have been the payment
per year be grown on that land (Resolution of subsidies to farmers and a price
63/2009/NQ-CP on food security). The intervention program (Huang & Yang
World Bank (2016, p. 17) notes that, as a 2017). Domestic prices have exceeded
result of this policy, ‘farmers have faced international prices, and the gap between
difficulties introducing rotation crops which them increased from 2009 to 2014 (Huang
otherwise might be more profitable, help to & Yang 2017, Table 2). These subsidies are
maintain soil fertility, and interrupt cycles growing rapidly (doubling in the five years
of pest and disease’. Giesecke et al. (2013) to 2012, for example) and overall, China
concluded that the rice land designation has been shifting from taxing agriculture to
policy reduced the social welfare and subsidising it. There have also been efforts
nutrition security of Vietnamese people. to separate support for farmer income
Rules on the land areas to be held for rice from pricing policy. Huang and Yang (2017)
production are particularly significant in outline several efforts to curb the extent
limiting the adjustment options available to of the subsidies. However, with the growth
farmers to adapt to climate change (Nguyen of the consumption of meats requiring
et al. 2020). However, since 2015, because feed grains to produce, the goal of self-
of Decree 35/2015/ND-CP on rice land use sufficiency in grains has been impossible
and management, some transfers out of to attain1.
rice production have been allowed, up to a
Huang and Yang (2017) explain that, since
limit in some provinces, but only as long as
2004, the policy has distinguished between
the transfers are registered with the local
food and feed grain, with the goal of self-
People’s Committee and associated fees
sufficiency in the former, but with a more
are paid. The World Bank observed that the
open market expected for feed grain. The
decree in 2015 providing this flexibility was
soybean and rapeseed markets are already
‘likely just the beginning of a major reform
open, but price intervention continues to
to come with respect to the governance of
apply to maize. Huang and Yang (2017)
agricultural land-use.’ (2016, p. 17).
also report on other efforts to increase
productivity, including land consolidation
(requiring land rights reform) and
investment in research and development.
1 In the short term, meat self-sufficiency has also been challenged by the outbreak of African swine fever, which is
reducing demand for imported grain. See https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-
commodities/sep-2019/african-swine-fever and https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/
article/3029961/chinas-pork-imports-surged-almost-80-cent-august-cover-gap.
3Effects and potential benefits of adaptations
In this section, we review the effects of • Climate variability, especially the
climate change and the potential to benefit increased frequency of extreme events
from adaptation. The key result is that the such as droughts and floods, can result in
scope for adaptation to offset the impact of unpredictable damage to crops.
climate change is significant.
Lobell and Burke (2008) explain that the
agricultural effects of climate change
Channels of effects are uncertain because of the varying
relative importance of temperature and
The literature relating to the effects of precipitation, therefore the net impact of
climate change on agriculture has grown climate change on crop production can be
significantly in the past several decades. mixed. This is confirmed in most studies
Early studies generally assessed such concerning climate change effects in China
effects with simulation techniques that (e.g. Smit & Cai 1996; You et al. 2009; Zhai,
were built on theories from the physical and Lin & Byambadorj 2009; Yin et al. 2016).
social sciences (e.g. Adams et al. 1990; Kane,
Reilly & Tobey 1992). A substantial body of
research, as reviewed in Adams et al. (1990), National, regional and
has addressed possible physical effects of sectoral studies
climate change on agriculture, focusing on
crop and livestock yield changes and the Multiple climate impact assessments have
associated economic consequences. been performed using data from China,
usually at either national or regional levels.
Among all agricultural subsectors, most Tang et al. (2000) applied alternative general
literature focuses on crop production and circulation models to evaluate the potential
the possible effects of climate change. impacts of global climate change on China’s
Hulme (1996) identifies four ways that agriculture. Liu et al. (2004) used county-
climate could physically affect crops: level data on agricultural net revenue to
• Temperature and precipitation assess the economic impacts of climate
changes will alter the distribution of change, and found that the overall effect
agroecological zones. The resulting could be positive. Wang, Huang and Rozelle
changes of multiple environmental (2010) refer to scenarios in which rice yields
factors that lie within each would further in China fall by between 9% and 13% by
affect crop production. the 2020s (without consideration of a CO2
• Higher carbon dioxide levels can fertilisation effect).
positively affect crop production through Tao et al. (2003) specifically broke down the
increased water-use efficiency and rates climate–agriculture linkage from a water-
of photosynthesis (although the extra use perspective. They found that the water
food that is grown in this environment demands of south and north China face
may be less nutritious [Zhu et al. 2018]). opposite changes—demand would decrease
• Water run-off is affected by climate in the south but increase in the north, and
conditions and this directly affects would consequently result in differing crop
crop yields. yield impacts. Zhai, Lin and Byambadorj
4 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94Productivity in agriculture has increased at a rate of 4% per year in China. Drivers of growth included the use of
irrigation and farm chemicals, investments in infrastructure, policy reforms and technological changes. Photo: ACIAR
(2009) estimated the effect of climate Other researchers have focused on the
change on China’s agriculture with a general climate change effects on one or several
equilibrium model, and concluded that the specific types of crops. These include You et
overall impact would be moderate at the al. (2009) who studied wheat productivity
macroeconomic level. in China, Yao et al. (2007) and Xiong et al.
(2009) who studied rice yields, and Xiong et
From a regional perspective, Chavas et al.
al. (2010) who studied cereals. The use of
(2009) investigated the long-term climate
key crop production inputs such as water
change effects on agricultural productivity
has also been investigated in conjunction
in eastern China. With simulation
with crop yield impact assessments,
techniques, they concluded that maize and
for example, Wu et al. (2010) and Xiong
winter wheat would benefit significantly
et al. (2010). As Hulme (1996) predicted,
in the North China Plain, while potato
the mechanisms linking climate change
yields might suffer in southwest China. Yin
and agriculture are numerous and can
et al. (2016) assessed the climate change
result in mixed findings, as is evident in
impacts on cropping systems in northeast
these studies.
China, and concluded that there could be
production benefits from the expansion Wang, Huang and Yan (2013) used a
of the crop-growing season, but that the comprehensive water-simulation model
effects of pests, diseases and weeds could to analyse the effects on agriculture in
also become more severe. 10 river basins of China in three different
climate scenarios. They report that in some
5scenarios, water shortages in the north decision-making in response to climate
(in particular in the Liahe and Haibe river change events (see Appendix).
basins) would become more acute, but that
An example of this work was the
in other basins in the south, water balances
consideration of the impact of climate
would improve. They found that, despite the
change on net crop revenue in north and
greater influence on water balances in the
south China by Wang, Huang, Zhang and Li
north, the effects on total crop production
(2014). They used data from 753 national
would be moderate if farmers were able
meteorological stations and socioeconomic
to relocate water among crops and adjust
data from 8,405 farms across 28 provinces
irrigated and rain-fed land use.
in China. They concluded that, on average, a
There is less literature on the impact of rise in temperature would reduce farm crop
climate change in Vietnam than in China. revenue in both north and south China.
Rutten et al. (2014) have examined scenarios Increasing temperatures, while beneficial
of the impact of climate change on land use to irrigated farms, would have adverse
in Vietnam. They found that 47% of paddy effects on rain-fed farms. With climate
land area is at risk of flooding, and the areas change, farms in the north were considered
that are more flood-prone are concentrated to be more vulnerable to temperature
in the Mekong River Delta. The World Bank and precipitation variations than those in
(2010) review of the effects of climate the south.
change on agriculture in Vietnam included
Huang, Wang and Wang (2015) used data
effects through changes in temperature,
from a survey of 1,653 rice farmers to
changes in rainfall and rising sea levels. They
examine the impact of climate change on
include hydroclimatic risks such as river
farm practices that had been adopted to
flooding, storms, salinity intrusion and sea
cope with extreme weather events, and
inundation (all of which are important in the
their consequences. They found that floods
Mekong River Delta), as well as flash floods
and droughts significantly reduced yields
and droughts (which are less important). In
and increased the risk of reduction of
the scenarios the World Bank considered, it
rice yields. They also found that farmers
estimated that rice yields could fall by 6.3%
who had adapted their farming practices
to 12% in the Mekong River Delta (without
had significantly reduced those risks and
consideration of a CO2 fertilisation effect)
increased yields. They concluded that there
by 2050. Another study considered the
was scope for scaling up cost-effective
possible effects of climate change on forest
adaptive farm practices and provision of
species (Booth et al. 1999).
public services related to natural disasters.
Similarly, in examining the impacts of
ACIAR farm-level studies climate change on mean (average) yields
of indica and japonica rice and the variance
A key objective of the ACIAR project (variability) of them, Wang, Zhang and
reviewed here was to supplement and Huang (2016) analysed 30 years of data.
complement the existing literature on the They found that both the trend of climate
effects of climate change on agriculture in change and change in its variability
China and Vietnam from a macroeconomic significantly influenced the yields and
perspective, with an understanding of their variability of yield of both rice types.
microeconomic effects. This has involved
using surveys of individual and farm-level
6 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94Huang et al. (2018), using a panel of Using panel data of rice farmers in Vietnam,
household survey data from a large sample Dang et al. (2020) examined the short-
in rural China, estimated the potential run impacts of farmers’ adaptations
benefits of long-run adaptation. They found on rice yield. They found that adopting
that, for various model settings and climate adaptive measures could reduce yield
change scenarios, long-run adaptations loss due to disasters. They also found
should mitigate one-third to one-half of that farmers having direct access to early-
the damages of climate warming on crop warning information about climate and
profits by the end of the 21st century. A technical support were more likely to apply
similar result was found using the same adaptation measures.
method in the USA and Vietnam, where
In the following sections, the different forms
long-run adaptations were estimated to
of adaptation used by farmers and drivers
mitigate one-third and one-half of the
of their use are reviewed. The focus is on
damages, respectively.
decision-making at the household level.
A survey of 340 households in Vietnam found that farmers with access to government services were more likely to
adjust farm practices to offset weather hazards, and farmers participating in agricultural production training were
more likely to apply offsetting measures. Photo: ACIAR
71 Forms of adaptation
In the face of climate extremes,
numerous adaptation strategies in
Other frequently observed responses
were to irrigate more frequently,
different agroecological conditions change crop varieties and to buy crop
have been adopted by farmers. insurance. Of interest, however, was
These include, but are not limited to, the low use of engineering measures.
irrigation technology advancement In the small proportion of farm
(Wu, Jin & Zhao 2010; Xiong et al. households who used engineering
2010), variety choice (Tao & Zhang measures, the most popular measure
2010), cultivation-timing changes, soil- related to water management—
tillage practices, crop protection (Yin investing in wells, building new
et al. 2016), and input changes (You et dams, purchasing pumps, investing
al. 2009), including, for example, the in surface pipes and sprinklers,
use of plastic film for soil cover (Yin and maintaining channels. Chen,
et al. 2016). Wang and Huang (2014) observed
that when ‘policy support’ was
Forms of adaptation may be
available, farmers were more likely
conveniently divided on the basis
to adopt both engineering and non-
of the level of the decision-maker
engineering measures. Policy support
involved. The categories shown
included early-warning technology
in Table 1.1 are farm household,
and technical, financial and physical
rural community and government
supports. However, few farmers (5%)
measures. Measures may be further
received this type of support. Farmers
categorised into those related to
with indicators of higher levels of
engineering, and non-engineering.
social connections were also found
Examples of engineering measures
to be more likely to adopt both types
are investments in irrigation. Non-
of responses.
engineering categories include new
methods of farm management. Climate change is widely recognised
but the role of government support in
Chen, Wang and Huang (2014)
adaptation is much less understood.
present results for six provinces in
Xu and Findlay (2019) modelled the
China relating to farmers’ choice
adaptation decision as a three-stage
of adaptation methods to the
process, with the stages dependent
experience of drought. The farmers
on whether:
predominantly used only non-
engineering drought-adaptation 1. the farmer needs adaptation
measures (76%); 14% of households 2. there are constraints that prevent
used no measures; only 10% used adaptation
both types of measures; and none 3. such constraints are able to be
used only engineering measures. removed through government
The most popular non-engineering support.
measures were changing inputs
to production or adjusting crop They found that government support
planting and/or harvesting times. was associated with an increase
8 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94Table 1.1 Types of adaptations
Level of decision-
maker Category 1 Category 2 Activity
Farm household Engineering Investment Well, pump, greenhouse, water cellar and
pond
Maintenance Well, pump, greenhouse, water cellar and
pond
Non- Water-saving Border irrigation, furrow irrigation, level
engineering technology field, surface pipe, sprinkler, drip, plastic
film, less tillage, residual retention,
intermittent irrigation, drought-resistant
crop varieties
Farm Change: variety, sowing and harvest date,
management reseeding, fixing and cleaning, irrigation
time and volume, other inputs
Risk Adjust planting structure, agricultural
management insurance
Off-farm Employment, migration, investment etc.
Rural community Engineering Investment Reservoir, irrigation–drainage system, dam,
pond, well, pump and underground pipe
Maintenance Reservoir, irrigation–drainage system, dam,
pond, well, pump and underground pipe
Non- Risk Disaster-resistant activity, agricultural
engineering management insurance
Capacity Disaster-prevention training, water-user
improvement association, other farmers’ association
Government Engineering Investment Reservoir, irrigation–drainage system, dam
Maintenance Reservoir, dam
Non- Risk Provide: disaster-warning service, disaster-
engineering management response knowledge, funding support,
technical support, emergency-warning
system, emergency-response plan, rules
and regulations for disaster, amended water
price policy
Capacity Disaster-prevention training
improvement
CHAPTER 1 | 9of 24.4% in the probability of adaptation found that more adaptations to traditional
measures being adopted. This positive practices were made in the more serious
change is much larger than the estimates disaster years and that government support
in other recent literature and suggests that influenced those adaptations (along
government support is much more effective with other household characteristics).
among farmers with adaptation constraints Dang et al. (2016b) found that the more
that they can address. Therefore, there is serious the disaster was, the more likely
value in correctly identifying each subgroup the adaptations of farmers and local
to optimise expected policy impacts. governments were to reinforce one another
(based on data for 2011, 2015 and 2016 from
In Vietnam, the adoption of engineering
a sample of 390 rice-producing households
measures has been more widespread (see
in the same provinces). However, they
Figure 1.1), and has mainly consisted of
also found that policy changes tended to
modifications to irrigation systems. The
lag behind the quicker shifts in climate
non-engineering measures used most by
conditions and farmer adaptations.
Vietnamese farmers included changing
sowing and harvesting dates, rice varieties Our main focus from this point on in this
and crops. These adaptation measures report is therefore on the adoption of non-
were adopted in disaster years to cope engineering measures and the drivers of
with disasters and in normal years as a the decision to adapt. Our discussion begins
precautionary measure. with farmers’ use of information about
climate change and their perceptions of it.
Dang et al. (2016a) studied farmers’
responses to drought and to salinity
intrusion in the Mekong Delta during
the 2010–2016 period. Using data from a
panel sample of 340 farm households in
the Ben Tra and Tra Vinh provinces, they
Proportion of farm plots (%)
45 Engineering adaptations
40 Non-engineering adaptations
35 Any adaptations
30 Engineering and non-engineering
adaptations
25
20
15
10
5
0
No disaster Small disaster Severe disaster
2015 2011 2016
Type of disaster and year
Figure 1.1 Adaptation measures, Vietnam, by disaster experience
Source: Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (2016)
10 | TECHNICAL REPORT 942 Farmers’ information and perceptions
The literature from many parts of
the world has consistently shown
that the severity of droughts had
increased in the previous 10 years.
that farmers’ perceptions affect their Early warnings of drought had also
choice of adaptation strategies (Juana, altered their perceptions and affected
Kahaka & Okurut 2013; Asante et al. their adaptation choices. Farmers
2017; Ayanlade, Radeny & Morton perceiving an increased severity of
2017). A recent study in China has drought were found to be more likely
also confirmed that perceptions are to adapt by adopting water-saving
a key factor affecting farmers’ actual technologies. In looking specifically at
adaptation behaviour (e.g. Sjögersten the influence of social networks and
et al. 2013). This follows from the farm assets on farmer perceptions
reasoning that human actions are of climate change, Hou, Huang and
based on perceptions formed from Wang (2017) found that only 18% of
the quality and relevance of available farmers accurately perceived the
information, and the ability to access actual increases in annual mean
and assess that information. That temperatures over the past 10 years.
ability is facilitated by social networks, However, they found that social
education and experience. In networks improved perceptions,
particular, information about climate and those with larger land holdings
and early warnings about drought and had more accurate perceptions of
floods are important in promoting climate change.
better adaptive responses by farmers.
The China-based research on access
Similarly, information about the
to information stresses the value
availability of post-event services,
of early-warning systems. This is
assistance and support are important
because, overall:
in alleviating hardship.
• Farmers are about 20% more likely
Empirically, overall perceptions have to perceive an increasing drought
been shown to be affected by factors severity when early-warning
such as the farmers’ age, education, information is provided.
and access to information (Debela et
• About 8% more farmers are
al. 2015). Moreover, risk perceptions
expected to adopt the use of
have been shown to be affected by
surface pipes in particular to
adaptive capacity at the farm level
respond to drought if early-
and sensitivity to climate change (Safi,
warning drought information
Smith & Liu 2012).
is provided.
In their study of early-warning
Weather information has the features
information, and of farmer
of a public service, so its provision
perceptions and adaptations to
is unlikely to be adequately funded
drought in China, Hou, Huang and
privately and there is a case for
Wang (2015) used household survey
state funding. Dang & Nguyen (2016)
data from nine provinces and found
found that the provision of formal
that over half the farmers perceived
CHAPTER 2 | 11A study of information provision and policy supports in three provinces in Vietnam found significant improvement in the adaptive responses, because of early-warning information. Photo: ACIAR information with government support village and farm surveys in five provinces, played an important role in improving Wang et al. (2015) found that wheat farmers farmers’ perceptions of local climate adapted better to droughts when provided variability. As these authors pointed out, with early-warning information and any consideration of a policy to raise policy support. The adaptations included awareness of climate change should adjusting seeding and harvesting dates and consider its ability to be applied widely. enhancing irrigation intensity. Similarly, Using household survey data from rice in their study of the effect of information farmers in the Ben Tra and Tra Vinh provision and policy supports on 2,157 provinces of the Mekong River Delta, plots of 695 households drawn from 66 Nguyen, Dang & Vu (2016) found that villages in three provinces in Vietnam, individual farmer perceptions of increases Dang and Nguyen (2016) found a significant in drought and salinity intrusion during improvement in adaptive responses, the 2010–2016 period had influenced their because of early-warning information. In adaptation behaviours. They also found that addition, the government support included the provision of early warnings of drought financial, technical and in-kind measures. had altered those perceptions. The North China Plain is an ecologically vulnerable region frequently hit by drought. In a study of farmer responses to drought in that region, using data from large-scale 12 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94
3 Other drivers of adaptation
Household smaller farms may benefit from
more attention.
characteristics
Results vary, however, with respect
Household characteristics have long to the importance of various
been considered possible factors household characteristics. For
affecting adaptation to climate example, Thennakoon et al. (2020)
change. Commonly identified features did not find statistically significant
include education level, sex, age and evidence that age, education or
wealth status (e.g. Deressa et al. 2009), wealth affected the use of adaptation
and the influences of these factors in the form of changes in a variety of
may be further manifested through management practices.
perception formation (Juana, Kahaka
Wang, Huang, Wang and Findlay
& Okurut 2013; Asante et al. 2017;
(2018) reviewed the determinants
Ayanlade, Radeny & Morton 2017).
of changes in irrigation practices in
Huang et al. (2014) focused on response to extreme drought events.
farmers’ use of crop diversification to They found that a response was more
adapt to the extreme weather events likely when the household head was
of flood and drought. They used data male. Their explanation was that
from a large-scale household survey changes in irrigation practices require
in nine provinces of China, and found more coordination among households
that crop diversification was used to and that heads are mostly male.
adapt, and significantly so if they had The effects of age and, interestingly,
experienced the event in the previous education were negative in these
year. They also found that use of results, but the effect of land holding
crop diversification varied by the per head and a location in a plains
age and sex of the farmer. Younger area was positive.
farmers were more likely to plant
Capital intensity and farm size
more types of crops. Female farmers
matter, according to the research
were more likely to diversify than
results. Huang, Wang, Huang and
males. Interestingly, farmers with less
Findlay (2018) examined the adaptive
education were more likely to manage
capacity of farmers, and identified
risk in this way—the authors noted
factors influencing the ability to derive
that these farmers may have had
benefits from adapting to changed
difficulty in responding using other
climate in the long run. They found
measures. Farmers with larger farms
that household-level capital intensity
were also found to be more likely
(production capital per hectare) had
to diversify. The authors concluded
a significant positive effect on the
that the value of capacity-building to
adaptive capacity of farmers. They
support adjustment varies between
also found that beyond a certain
types of farmers, and they suggested
level, increases in farm size led
that older farmers and those with
to increases in adaptive capacity.
CHAPTER 3 | 13Age had a significant negative effect in is used. Such longer-term investments are
adaptive capacity. facilitated by land tenure arrangements that
assure farmers who make such investments
These results reinforce the value of focusing
that they will be able to reap their longer-
on indicators of risk categories for farmers,
term benefits. Many of the successful
such as:
adaptations to climate-change-related
• smaller farm size events depend on there being such longer-
• older age term investments.
• location other than a plains area In this project, we also found that better-
• lesser wealth. defined property rights had an impact on
the use of management practices as well.
In Vietnam, Vu et al. (2016), found that
Thennakoon et al. (2020) found that in the
cultivated land size was a positive factor in
Guangdong province of China, rice farmers
adaptation, but that this could be offset by
with contracted land were more likely to
fragmentation of land holdings. Larger and
implement successful adaptation measures
more consolidated holdings helped farmers
to extreme weather events than farmers
adapt. Other positive factors included ease
who rented land from the collective or from
of access to main roads, higher quality of
other farmers.
cultivated soil, and irrigated land share at
the village level. The authors referred to
these features as matters of agricultural Water allocation regimens
infrastructure. However, they found
no effect of age or education level on Well-defined rights for water use encourage
adaptation. They speculated that farmers longer-term investment in conservation and
with higher education might be more likely efficient use of water. Rights to the available
to be involved in off-farm work, which would supplies of water and the ability to trade
reduce the incentive to adapt on the farm. those rights are important for encouraging
water flow to the most profitable uses. This
is especially so at times when, or in areas
Land tenure where, water is scarce, and there are many
uses for the available supplies.
Land tenure has widely been considered
a factor affecting agricultural technology Urbanisation in China has an effect
adoption, including climate change on agricultural use of water and crop
adaptation procedures (Soule, Tegene production. Yan, Wang and Huang (2015)
& Wiebe 2000; Place & Otsuka 2002; estimated that a 1% increase in urbanisation
Gebremedhin & Swinton 2003; Deininger would result in a 0.47% decline in the share
& Jin 2006; Abdulai, Owusu & Goetz 2011; of water used for agriculture. The decrease
Oostendorp & Zaal 2012). The nature of in use of water for irrigation of crops such
farmer rights to land and water has an as rice and wheat is associated with declines
important influence on farmer adaptation in yields and production, and an increase in
to climate change through their influence reliance on rain-fed production. Adaptation
on farming practices. More sustainable and measures they highlighted to minimise such
profitable practices depend on longer-term declines included institutional and policy
investments to maintain and improve the innovations, such as clarifying water rights
quality of soil and the manner in which it and pricing mechanisms, to encourage use
14 | TECHNICAL REPORT 94of water-saving techniques and technologies An important area for discussion is the
for both agricultural and urban uses influence of policies and social capital on
of water. farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation
measures against drought. Using a large-
scale household and village survey in six
Labour markets provinces across China, Chen, Wang and
Huang (2014) found that a higher level of
Off-farm labour markets provide a means
social capital in a household was associated
of adaptation for farmers to climate change.
with better adaptation capacity against
In response to the negative productivity
drought. They also found that the ability to
shocks to agricultural output that climate
adapt was influenced by characteristics of
change results in, farmers can mitigate
households and local communities. Dang
the damage to their overall welfare by
(2016) found similar results relating to the
seeking off-farm employment. However, the
influence of farm household characteristics,
mitigating effect of such labour reallocation
local infrastructure and government
depends on the property rights of farmland
supports on adaptation capacity in Vietnam.
and the availability of off-farm work.
These results were from a study of the
This was illustrated in a study by Huang,
adaptation behaviour of Vietnamese rice
Huang, Wang and Findlay (2016), who
farmers based on a large-scale survey of
found that farmers with off-farm working
623 rice farmers affected by climate change
opportunities who did not have property
in the Mekong River Delta and South–
rights to farmland benefited most from the
Central Coast regions.
adaptation of labour reallocation.
Social capital
Social capital means the norms and
networks that enable people to act
collectively. Specifically, family, friends and
associates represent an important collective
asset which helps people deal with poverty
and vulnerability, resolve disputes and take
advantage of new opportunities (Woolcock
& Narayan 2000).
CHAPTER 3 | 154 Market signals
A major factor in influencing farmer
behaviour is the prices of agricultural
The study by Huang, Xie, Ali and Yang
(2017) examined these effects. They
products. When the effect of climate applied the empirically estimated
change is to reduce supply, prices price elasticities of major crops
typically rise, inducing an increase in in both the normal and extreme
output in the new supply conditions. weather event years from this project.
However, farmer response to price They then simulated the impacts
changes may also vary in the context of extreme weather events using
of climate change. It is typically found an integrated model of CAPSiM (a
that farmers’ responses are not strong partial ‘captive simulation’ equilibrium
in the short-run because, as might be model in agriculture for China)
expected, periods of extreme weather and a general equilibrium model
limit their capacity to respond (global trade analysis program).
(Yang & Huang 2016; Huang & Yang The results showed that, without
2016; Do & Dang 2016). In addition, considering the lower supply
elasticities of farmer responses will elasticities of many commodities in
be underestimated by models which the crop sector when encountering
do not allow for the longer-run lagged extreme weather events, the
adjustment in supply. impacts of climate variations on
production, consumption and trade
A further consideration with respect
are underestimated. The impacts
to the price signals is the extent of
also varied with the degree of trade
market integration. A weather event
liberalisation assumed. A more
which shocks supply may have the
open economy in the agricultural
initial effect of raising prices, but
sector was shown to reduce
when local markets are integrated
the effects of extreme weather
with the rest of the country or the rest
events on consumption and price
of the world, the price impact will be
through imports.
reduced when goods are imported
from other regions. The impact on
consumers in that case is reduced,
but a greater impact is borne by local
producers. Incentives to increase
local production are also reduced.
This reduced-incentive effect is less
significant when the weather events
are more widespread.
16 | TECHNICAL REPORT 945 Infrastructure
Community infrastructure supporting
agriculture includes roads and
Where suitable water resources are
available, farm-specific infrastructure,
waterways that facilitate the transport such as irrigation systems, can be
of farm produce to markets; local developed or enhanced to further
community centres; schools and facilitate the expansion of intensive
shops; and information about weather water-dependent farming, such as
and market prices. The nature and rice paddies in drought-prone regions.
quality of such physical and social For example, Wang, Huang, Wang and
infrastructure have important Findlay (2018) used a field survey to
influences on farmers and on farming study the adaptive responses of rice
practices, especially during extreme farmers in their use of water, and
weather events. found that in villages with irrigation
infrastructure there was a significant
Household and community assets
increase in yields and reduction to
affect farmer adaptations to drought
the downside risks in rice production.
in China. Wang, Huang and Wang
Similarly, Wang, Yang, Huang and
(2014), using data from a household
Adhikari (2018) report from a field
survey in three provinces, found
survey of five provinces in the North
that both asset types affect adaptive
China Plain that, when faced with a
behaviour. Household social capital
severe drought, farmers changed
and wealth, community networks
their management practices to
and access to government anti-
mitigate its effects by increasing
drought services facilitated farmer
irrigation frequency and by increasing
adoption of adaptation measures
the efficiency of irrigation by using
that resulted in higher crop yields.
surface pipes. Again, they reported
They also found there could be a
a significant increase in yields and
degree of substitution between
a reduction in the downside risks in
irrigation infrastructure and other
production with irrigation.
adaptation measures.
In Vietnam, Dang et al. (2020) used
data from a survey of 340 households
undertaken in 2011, 2015 and 2016
to examine farmer adaptation to
drought. They found that farmers
having access to government services
were more likely to adjust farm
practices to offset weather hazards,
and that farmers participating in
agricultural production training
were more likely to apply offsetting
measures. The adaptations made had
significantly increased rice yields and
reduced yield variability.
CHAPTER 5 | 17Adaptation and policy options
Options for adaptation are either those infrastructure which farmers share, and
which are autonomous and can be this varies by catchment. Similarly, the
undertaken by farmers individually, or those ability to make investments will depend
which are planned and require collective on the availability of credit, the financial
action and undertaken by local communities viability of the particular measure and the
and governments. The latter include credit-worthiness of the borrower. Also,
investments in infrastructure or other in the results reported above, the security
forms of social support. As noted earlier, of property rights was found to affect
adaptations can also be categorised into not only longer-term investment in land
those which involve elements of engineering improvement and on-farm irrigation works,
and the various other non-engineering types but also even the willingness of farmers to
of adaptations, such as those listed in Table adopt improved management measures.
1.1 under risk management and capacity
The planning and institutional measures
improvement. Also, as illustrated in Table
affect the impact of measures adopted.
1.1, most engineering adaptations are likely
Specifically, there are synergies between
to require action by local communities or
planned adaptation activities at the
governments. Many of the non-engineering
community level, which can, through better
adaptations are in the hands of farmers and
incentives, stimulate adaptive responses.
involve changes in farm management.
For example, good information systems will
A focus of the project was on decision- support more efficient choices by farmers.
making by farmers, and the belief Likewise, water pricing provides incentives
that farmers are more likely to make for farmers to make more efficient use of
decisions which can have a high water, and also provides a benchmark for
impact on climate adaptation when evaluating investments in local capture and
those decisions are complemented by storage of water. Removal of restrictions
planned government measures. The on labour mobility allows farmers to make
importance of complementarities can be efficient choices with respect to remaining in
overlooked if undue emphasis is placed on on-farm work or seeking work off the farm,
individual measures. or relocating to urban areas permanently.
Ease of implementation also matters. For A challenge is that these packages of
each type of adaptation, implementation planned and institutional measures are in
can be relatively easy or difficult. Similarly, the hands of various levels of government,
the impact of implementation can be so an important implication of this work
relatively low or high. Policy priority should is the degree of coordination required
be given to identifying and implementing to implement them (Nguyen et al. 2020).
adaptation measures that are easy to Another challenge is that governments often
implement and have a high impact. have incentives to adopt particular types of
measures. Visible initiatives such as large-
The ease of implementation will generally
scale engineering measures (e.g. sea walls)
depend on local conditions. For example,
may be more visible to their constituencies,
the ease of implementation of various
despite a lack of return on investment,
water-related measures will depend on
compared to others which are less visible in
the extent and quality of the irrigation
those terms (e.g. water markets).
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