Quo vadis Germany - the readjustment of German multilateral relations in the 20s of the 21st century - the readjustment of German multilateral ...
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Quo vadis Germany -
the readjustment of German
multilateral relations in the 20s
of the 21st century
Germany is facing a historic Bundestag Nevertheless, in the shadow of this long
election. After 16 years and thus four, period of stability, the fragmentation
full legislatures, Angela Merkel will no of the German party landscape has
longer enter the race as the CDU / CSU's continued to develop. The appeal of
top candidate. For the first time since Germany's two major parties, the CDU/
the end of the Second World War, there CSU and the SPD, has steadily declined.
will be no office bonus in this election. For the first time since the Second World Ingo Leven
The relevance of such an incumbency War, these two political forces in the Director Polling and
bonus is illustrated by the fact that in centre have combined less than 60% of Strategy
the 18 federal elections since 1953, the the members of the 16 German Landtag
incumbent Chancellor has only been since 2019 (see Figure 1). Kantar Public Germany
voted out of office three times (Kurz
Georg Kiesinger in 1969, Helmut Kohl in
1998, Gerhard Schröder in 2005).
Upcoming federal elections between stability and change over time
German States Members of Parliament: new currents becoming part of the political system
100
90 CD + SD
AfD
80 NPD
German State Members of Parliament (in %)
Liberals
70
Green Party
60 Left
50
40
30
20
10
0
In two federal states, these two parties Whether the Greens will be able to
from the centre of the party spectrum hold their own in the autumn elections
do not currently have the Prime Minister remains to be seen, given the high
(Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens in volatility of the polls and the government
Baden-Württemberg and Bodo Ramelow policies that will have to be implemented
of the Left in Thuringia). For the federal by then - the focus will be on dealing
election this autumn, the Greens are with the corona pandemic. In any case, a
putting Annalena Baerbock into the race turning point is looming in Germany:the
as their top candidate for Chancellor, post-Merkel era. The central question
whose party is now after her nomination is in which direction Germany foreign
at least in a neck-and-neck race for policy will continue to develop.
first place with the CDU/CSU in the
Sunday polls. Only once in the history of
the Federal Republic of Germany has a
party other than the CDU/CSU and SPD
nominated a candidate for Chancellor
(FDP 2002 with Guido Westerwelle).
1
This study was conducted by Kantar Public on behalf of the German Marshall Fund as an online study in 11 countries. The sample consisted of n=1,000 people aged 18 and over in the UK, USA,
France, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Poland, Turkey, Canada, Spain and the Netherlands. The fieldwork covered the period from 29 March to 13 April.
1
Germany: an anchor of future stability
in multilateral cooperation?
Which country is most influential in Europe?
Studies such as «Transatlantic Trends The upcoming Bundestag elections
2021»1 by Kantar Public for the German can have a significant influence on this
Marshall Fund make it clear that current positioning. Among the possible
Germany has been able to assert itself coalition options, the so-called German
as an influential anchor of stability in coalition2 of CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP
multilateral relations during Angela is most likely to stand for a "carry on"
Merkel’s 16 years of continuity as Federal after the Merkel era. Out of the many
Chancellor. Even if the population in other possible coalition options, the
the countries participating in the study Left's participation in government in
ascribes little influence to the European a Red-Red-Green alliance stands out.
Union in the concert of the great powers With its fundamental criticism of NATO
USA, Russia and China - China has as a sabre-rattling and war-mongering
outstripped Russia in many countries - institution, it repeatedly calls this
Germany is seen as playing a strong role form of transatlantic cooperation into
within Europe. It is noteworthy that this question. Here it is open to what extent
is especially the view of the populations the Left is prepared to give up such
within the European countries radical positions for participation
participating in this study. Here, the
influence of Germany’s persistent in the federal government. After
European and global policy is seen all, it is not to be expected that
more than in the two North American the other two parties in such a
countries, the USA and Canada (see government coalition will move
Figure 2). towards this position in the coalition
negotiations.
2
The name comes from the fact that the political colours of the parties involved in this coalition correspond to the colours of the national flag.
2
Germany’s role in the EU - engine of
change, but what’s the destination?
In the current times, everything is In view of the fact that the vaccination At the same time, of course, vaccines
focused on the fight against the rate in the EU, at almost 40%, is are still a scarce commodity worldwide
coronavirus pandemic. In the process, currently more than three times and thus also nationally. Already at the
much has been done primarily at higher than worldwide (see Figure 3), beginning of this year, when announcing
the level of nation states - or even such accusations raise the question the necessary restrictive measures, the
more regionally. Regional lockdown of whether it would really have been German federal government appealed
measures, equipping national health sensible for the EU to strive for an even for perseverance, pointing out that the
systems and national border closures more regional special path here and imminent vaccination campaign would
with sometimes even more restrictions thus exacerbate the worldwide shortage bring about the big turnaround towards
on movement regionally or even locally of vaccines. The guiding idea behind the more relief. However, the expectations
on the ground are all issues that have joint procurement of vaccines at the that had been built up could not be
rarely been addressed in a coordinated EU level was to avoid special national fulfilled in such a short time. With refe-
way at the European level. A prominent approaches and thus a race for scarce rence to the EU as the body responsible
counterexample is the EU-wide vaccines among the EU countries. for the purchase of vaccines, a culprit
procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. was quickly found who could not be lo-
The EU Commission has come under cated in the domestic political wrangling
criticism for this, especially in Germany. of an election year in Germany. This
Compared to countries such as Israel, has always been very convenient at the
the USA or the UK, the vaccination point in Germany. At the same time,
campaign in the EU countries has been national politicians from different par-
slower to gain momentum due to the ties wanted to stage themselves as the
still scarce vaccines. movers and shakers in the pandemic.
3
Thus, changes in the vaccination order In this context, it is remarkable that the This also has to do with the fact that in a
are hastily announced, although not image of the EU among the German large number of countries, the popu-
all people from particularly vulnerable population has not (yet) suffered any lations attest that there was solidarity
groups have yet received a vaccination lasting damage. Half (50%) of Germans between the EU member states in
offer. Or preliminary contracts for still rate the EU positively. This is not only dealing with the Corona pandemic. It
Russian vaccines that have not yet slightly above the current EU average is remarkable that in Germany (35%)
been approved are agreed with media (48%) but also slightly above the value as well as in France (34%) it is far less
attention. The fact that none of this for Germany from last summer (47%). frequently assessed in this way. Against
contributes to overcoming the Corona This image of the EU is very remarkable this background, it is not surprising that
pandemic is, however, of secondary overall. Indeed, we have to look back almost three quarters of Europeans
importance in such staging. more than a decade at the EU level to (74%) would like the EU to have more
find a comparable number of people competences in future comparable
That such a national discussion is who rated the EU so positively back then crises. In Germany, too, a broad majority
not without consequences, however, (2009). (65%) sees it this way.
becomes apparent when looking
at the image of the EU. The current
Eurobarometer survey3 conducted
by Kantar Public for the EU in the 27
Member States shows that, across all
27 countries, only just under half of the
population (48%) is aware of measures
taken at EU level against the Corona
pandemic. Given the strong public focus
in Germany on the procurement of
Corona vaccines at the EU level, it is not
surprising that the figure in Germany
is significantly higher at almost two-
thirds (63%). To the same extent, it is
not surprising that satisfaction with
these measures among people who
can identify measures at the EU level is
significantly lower in Germany (35%)
than the EU average (48%) due to the
policy of blame shifting.
3
The survey of the current Eurobarometer was conducted in the period from 16 March to 12 April in the 27 member countries in compliance with national pandemic regulations. In eleven countries
this was possible with personal interviews on site. In eleven countries, too, only online interviews formed the basis, while in five countries a mixed model had to be used. The results presented for the
EU27 are based on a weighting that takes into account the population figures of the respective countries.
4Acceleration of climate protection as
an international policy issue in the 20s
One such next crisis could be the Among the following issues, which do you think are the three most important
consequences of climate change that issues for transatlantic cooperation?
will only become visible in the longer
term as global warming increases.
A look at the Kantar Public study for the
German Marshall Fund shows that even
in times of the Corona pandemic, the
populations of the countries involved
attach great importance to combating
global climate change. Only in Poland
and Turkey does this task does not land
among the top two priorities.
And the results of the new
Eurobarometer also make it clear that
besides public health care, which is at
the centre of political spending in times
of the Corona pandemic, it is above all
support for the economy and the fight
against climate change that set the
political agenda.
This means that, unlike in the past,
economic recovery needs do not lead
to the postponement of environmental
protection measures. With the basic
idea of a Green Deal with the goal of
making Europe the first continent to
become climate neutral by 2050 and
the integration of this goal into the
reconstruction fund NextGenerationEU,
which, with a volume of 750 billion
euros as the largest economic stimulus
package of all time in Europe, is to get
the recovery of societies after the effects
of the Corona pandemic underway, the
foundations are to be laid for a future
green, digital and resilient EU.
5The current positioning of the German
parties
A federal government led by the Greens Table 1: Status on the election programme for the upcoming Bundestag
can also be expected to have its own elections of the parties currently represented in the Bundestag
momentum. The fight against global
climate change, under the slogan
«protecting the basis of life”4, would Party Status Date Finalisation Comment
certainly form a focal point of future
German global and European policy CDU/CSU In Preparation tbd tbd
and make Germany a driving force in
the efforts to establish fundamental,
effective and globally binding rules.
SPD Published May 9th, 2021 Already done
But it is not only relations with Poland,
representative of other Eastern
European countries that (have to) AfD Published May 20th, 2021 Already done
rely even more on coal as an energy
source, that controversial issues
in the implementation of climate
protection goals would occur for a FDP Decided May 17th, 2021 Already done Official
federal government led by the Greens. publication
Rejecting nuclear energy is one of the pending
core contents of the German Greens, so
France’s energy policy orientation with Left Draft February 8th, June 20th,
a large share of nuclear energy in the 2021 2021
national energy mix could well lead to
new tensions with its neighbour west of Greens Draft March 19th, June 13th, 2021
the Rhine. 2021
But this is not the only area of
controversy. NATO’s 2% target is
rejected by the Greens as an arbitrary With regard to relations with Russia, the As expected, the FDP’s election
target5. However, this is not a rejection AfD formulates positions that clearly manifesto contains liberal counter-
of multilateralism. Rather, the Greens go against the majority opinion of positions to such economic regulatory
stand for a deepening of value- sanctioning Russia for, among other interventions. With freedom and
oriented international cooperation. things, the occupation of Crimea, human rights worldwide14, however,
Accordingly, their participation while at the same time appealing the Free Democrats also set the tone
in government would stand for a to a significant part of the German for a value-oriented deepening of
deepening in a variety of policy areas population with sentences like these: international cooperation. Within the
(including human rights6, gender «The AfD advocates the lifting of framework of a German foreign,
justice). EU sanctions and the expansion of security and development policy
economic relations with Russia”9. from a single mould15, the FDP wants
The right-wing AfD positions itself to ensure that Germany invests three
as a counterpart to the Greens With this positioning towards per cent of its gross domestic product
with a deep scepticism towards Russia, the AfD is also travelling in in international security (3D - defence,
deepening international cooperation. the realms of the Left, which calls development and diplomacy) in the
This positioning culminated in for the dissolution of NATO and its sense of a networked approach, thus
the formulation of the campaign replacement by a collective security fulfilling the commitments it made in
programme for the upcoming system with the participa-tion of Russia, NATO, consolidating its development
Bundestag elections when, after a which has disarmament as a central policy and strengthening its diplomacy16.
lively debate at the party conference, goal10. But overall, the differences in
a majority decided that Germany views on international cooperation
should leave the European Union predominate here. However, the left’s
and consider the foundation of a anti-militarist stance is not a general
new European economic and interest rejection of multilateralism. The
community necessary7. A possible goal of implementing social justice
withdrawal of Germany from the WHO worldwide11 is linked to a deepening
is also anchored in the programme8. of international cooperation, including
globalising labour law12 and a supply
chain law worthy of its name13.
4
Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen (2021): Deutschland. Alles ist drin. Programmentwurf zur Bundestagswahl 2021. https://cms.gruene.de/uploads /documents /2021_Wahlprogrammentwurf.pdf (Abruf am
31.05.2021): p. 7
5
ibid.: S. 134
6
ibid.; S. 123
7
Alternative für Deutschland (2021): Deutschland. Aber normal. Programm der Alternative für Deutschland für die Wahl zum 20. Deutschen Bundestag. https://cdn.afd.tools /wp-content /
uploads/sites/111/2021/05/2021-05-20-_-AfD-Bundestagswahlprogramm-2021.pdf (Abruf am 31.05.2021): S. 28
8
ibid.: S. 143
9
ibid. S. 63
10
DIE LINKE (2021): Zeit zu handeln: Für soziale Sicherheit, Frieden und Klimagerechtigkeit! Wahlprogramm der Partei DIE LINKE zur Bundestagswahl 2021. Vorgelegt von Katja Kipping und Bernd
Riexinger. https://www.die-linke.de/fileadmin/download/wahlen2021/BTWP21_Entwurf_Vorsitzende.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021): p. 133
11
ibid.: p. 113
12
ibid.: p. 114
13
ibid.: S. 114
14
Die Freien Demokraten (2021): Nie gab es mehr zu tun. Wahlprogramm der Freien Demokraten. Programmentwurf der Freien Demokraten zur Bundestagswahl 2021. https://www.fdp.de/sites/
default/files/import/2021-04/110463-programmentwurf-nie-gab-es-mehr-zu-tun-2.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021)
15
ibid.: p. 57
16
ibid.: p. 57
6The SPD’s election manifesto, on the Last but not least, the election This ultimately resulted in the contents
other hand, reflects priorities of today’s programme of the CDU/CSU for for the election programme, which were
EU policy. The historic decisions on the the Bundestag elections should be adopted by the CDU/CSU as a joint
largest reconstruction programme in mentioned. It is remarkable that there election programme in July 2017. This
the history of the European Union17 is still a blank space here. Even in the time, the CDU/CSU is later and only
with NextGeneration EU is claimed by 2017 Bundestag election, the election since 30 March of this year have citizens
the party, which sees it as a solidarity programme was only published in July of Germany been able to participate in
achievement that mitigates the social and thus as the last programme of the the CDU campaign «Zusammenmachen
consequences of the Corona crisis and parties represented in parliament. In - Dein Deutschland» (Making Together
at the same time advances socio- the run-up to the last federal election, - Your Germany) at 11 thematic tables,
ecological change and promotes six German congresses were held by from which content will find its way
innovation18. The aim is to strengthen the party in the autumn of the previous into the election programme, which,
solidarity19 and enable socio- year, the contents and results of which according to an announcement made
ecological economic activity20 and were incorporated into the election at the beginning of the year, is to be
expand democracy21. In this way it programme, as were a leading motion adopted by the CDU/CSU in July.
should be possible that ultimately the EU of the CDU’s federal executive at its
becomes the most modern democracy party congress in December of the
and Europe also becomes a pioneer in previous year and statements by the
climate protection22. party’s internal federal committees and
networks.
17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (2021): Aus Respekt vor Deiner Zukunft. Das Zukunftsprogramm der SPD. Wofür wir stehen. Was uns antreibt. Wonach wir streben. https://www.spd.
de/fileadmin/Dokumente/Beschluesse/Programm/SPD-Zukunftsprogramm.pdf (downloaded May 31st, 2021): p. 55
18
ibid.: p. 6
19
ibid.: p. 55
20
ibid.: p. 55
21
ibid. p. 58
22
ibid.: p. 6
7Conclusion and outlook
In view of the many coalition options It is certain that the AfD will not form a But it is precisely such compromises
that are currently being announced government. This leaves out in Germany that will be important. And not only
in the run-up to the 2021 Bundestag the political force that positions itself for the Left; this ability to compromise
elections, it is far too early to make in the field of foreign policy through will also be demanded of all political
a final assessment of the extent to a fundamental scepticism regarding actors involved in any other government
which a new federal government international cooperation and with its formation. Even if the Greens seem to
could shift the balance in international pro-Russian and pro-Chinese stances have the largest arithmetical choice
relations and in what direction. Rather, occupies a special role in the German of possible government constellations
exciting coalition negotiations are party landscape. after the election, the main issue will
in the offing in the run-up to the next be to bring together the substantive
government formation in Germany. For the Left, too, the possibilities of ingredients of the different parties.
While the formation of a coalition government participation are limited. If it is really possible to permanently
comprising three parliamentary parties Whether it will even be enough to form "unite the best of both worlds" in
failed spectacularly because of the a red-red-green federal government is government action, as the Austrian
FDP after the last federal election, it not at all clear at the moment. At the government at the beginning of its term
is currently impossible to tell whether same time, the extent to which the Left in office at least claimed to be able to
two parliamentary parties will really be is prepared to make concessions from its do, entirely new political contents can
able to form a government on the basis extreme positions on the dissolution of powerfully take shape here in Germany.
of their vote shares and whether they NATO in the context of possible coalition Germany has the chance to lead the
will be able to come together in terms negotiations is also open. way in the 2020s when new political
of content. The CDU/CSU is currently alliances emerge from conservative,
dominated by voices saying they do not liberal, ecological and social currents to
want to play a junior role together with jointly tackle the political challenges
the Greens. And the Greens must ask ahead. While there will certainly be
themselves whether, beyond a junior role a focus on domestic issues after the
in the coalition with the CDU/CSU, they Corona pandemic - buzzwords here are
might not also be able to form other economic recovery and the fundamental
three-party constellations under their digitalisation of society - one thing is
leadership. certain about these possible alliances:
The new German government will ensure
that Germany will certainly remain an
important partner in the context of
international cooperation. With which
direction of pull for which multilateral
issues will largely depend on which
parties the German citizens vote for
on September 26th, 2021 and to what
extent.
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