QUICK GUIDE - American Statistical Association

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QUICK GUIDE - American Statistical Association
JSM

QUICK GUIDE
 The American Statistical Association* • Institute of Mathematical Statistics* • International Biometric Society (ENAR and WNAR)*
International Chinese Statistical Association • International Indian Statistical Association • International Society for Bayesian Analysis
 International Statistical Institute • Korean International Statistical Society • Statistical Society of Canada* • Royal Statistical Society

                                                (*indicates the founding societies of JSM)
QUICK GUIDE - American Statistical Association
Cambridge University Press
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Discounts | Free shipping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Spin-the-wheel | Giveaways
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Editors | Sneak Peeks
values vs posteriors • confirmation vs falsification • probabilism vs performance vs probativeness • Jeffreys-Lindley paradox • behavio-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ...Find it all at Booth 202
pperian falsification vs carnapian confirmation • problem of induction • significance test controversy • type I and type II errors • power:
science and philosophy of science • cherry-picking, data dredging, multiple testing • estimation vs testing • objectivity vs subjectivity •
ubjective priors • stopping rules: relevant or irrelevant? • statistical crisis in science • Bayes boost vs likelihood ratios • replication para-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      “Probabilistic inference of massive and complex data has received much attention
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cambridge Series in Statistical

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    van der Vaart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ghosal and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      in statistics and machine learning, and Bayesian nonparametrics is one of the core

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              STATISTICAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              “Prediction, one of the most important practical applications of statistical analysis,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cambridge Series in Statistical                                                                 tools. Fundamentals of Nonparametric Bayesian Inference is the first book to com-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        and Probabilistic Mathematics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and Clarke
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Clarke

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    The focus of this book is on the two major areas of risk                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES   46
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               and Currie
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Richards
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Macdonald,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              has rarely been treated as anything more than an afterthought in most formal                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            prehensively cover models, methods, and theories of Bayesian nonparametrics.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                International Series on Actuarial Science
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              treatments of statistical inference. This important book aims to counter this neglect
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and Probabilistic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     - Mathematics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    theory: aggregate claims distributions and ruin theory. For                                       Readers can learn basic ideas and intuitions as well as rigorous treatments of under-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Exploratory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              by a wholehearted emphasis on prediction as the primary purpose of the analysis.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mehri
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    aggregate claims distributions, detailed descriptions are given                                   lying theories and computations from this wonderful book.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The authors cut a broad swathe through the statistical landscape, conducting thor-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              INFERENCE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    of recursive techniques that can be used in the individual                                                                                   – Yongdai Kim, Seoul National University
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ough analyses of numerous traditional, recent, and novel techniques, to show how

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Fundamentals of                                                                                               Social Network Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              these are illuminated by taking the predictive perspective.”                                                                                                                                                          and collective risk models. For the collective model, the book                                    “Bayesian nonparametrics has seen amazing theoretical, methodological and com-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Predictive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           – Philip Dawid, University of Cambridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     -                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              discusses different classes of counting distribution, and                                         putational developments in recent years. This timely book gives an authoritative

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Modelling Mortality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Modelling Mortality with Actuarial

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nonparametric Bayesian Inference
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Fundamentals of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    presents recursion schemes for probability functions and                                          account of the current state of the art by two leading scholars in the field. They

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              as
                                                      “The prime focus in statistics has always been on modeling rather than prediction;
 robabilism vs performance vs probativeness • Jeffreys-Lindley                       paradox            • behavioral             vs subfields
                                                                                                                                       evidential         interpretation • popperian falsification
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nonparametric                                                                                                        with Pajek
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      masterfully cover all major aspects of the discipline, with an emphasis on asymp-

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Exploratory Social Network Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Predictive Statistics

                                                      as a result, different prediction     methods have     arisen within different             of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 moments. For the individual model, the book illustrates the
                                                      statistics, and a general, all-encompassing account has been lacking. For the first                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             totics, and achieve the rare feat of being simultaneously broad and deep, while
                                                                                                                                                            9781107028289 CLARKE AND CLARKE – PREDICTIVE STATISTICS PPC C M Y K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Statistics
 m of induction • significance test controversy • type         I and
                                                      time, this          typesuchII anerrors
                                                                  book provides                        • power:
                                                                                            account and,                 pre-data
                                                                                                           as such, it convincingly  argues vs   post-data • statistical science and philos
                                                                                                                                            for the                                                                   philos-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       three most commonly applied techniques. Beyond the classical
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      preserving the utmost mathematical rigor. This book is, without doubt, a must-read

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        with Actuarial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              SEVERE
                                                      primacy of prediction. The authors consider a wide range of topics from a predic-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             topics in ruin theory, this new edition features an expanded                                      for PhD students and researchers in statistics and probability.”
 ata dredging, multiple testing • estimation vs testing         • objectivity vs subjectivity • Savage forum • subjective vs non-subjective priors •                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Revised    and e xpanded edition
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Bayesian Inference
                                                      tive point of view and I am impressed by both the breadth and depth of the topics                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             section covering time of ruin problems, Gerber–Shiu functions,                                                                                      – Igor Prünster, Bocconi University
                                                      addressed and by the unifying story the authors manage to tell.”

 ? • statistical crisis in science • Bayes boost vs likelihood ratios • replication                               paradox • Fisher vs Neyman • relevance Analysis
                                                                                                  – Peter Grünwald, CWI and Leiden University
                                                                                                                                                                                               of outcomes         and otherInference beyond Models
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    and the application of De Vylder approximations.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      “Worth waiting for, this book gives a both global and precise overview on the fun-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        foR   Updated softwaRe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      damentals of Bayesian nonparametrics. It will be extremely valuable as a textbook
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Applications
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              TESTING
                                                      This bold treatise outlines a fully predictive approach to statistical problems based
 uhem’s problem • one-sided vs two-sided • p-values           vs error        probabilities
                                                                                 the approach does not•require
                                                                                                             model         testing        vs tomodel        selection • calibration:                    actual vs hy         hy-
                                                                                                                                                                                           Suitable for a first course in insurance risk theory and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   for Masters and PhD students, along with more experienced researchers, as the
                                                      on studying    predictors;                                    predictors  to correspond     a
                                                                                                                                                                                           extensively classroom tested, the book is accessible to readers                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            authors have managed to gather, link together, and present with great clarity a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 THIRD EDITION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Subhashis Ghosal
                                                      model, although this important special case is included. Throughout, the point is to
  ror probabilities • significance tests vs confidence      intervals
                                                      examine                 • frequentist,
                                                                 predictive performance                     fiducial,
                                                                                             before considering              bayesian
                                                                                                                   conventional                  unification • Bayes factors
                                                                                                                                  inference. These
                                                      ideas are traced through five traditional subfields of statistics, helping readers to
                                                                                                                                                                                           withBertrand
                                                                                                                                                                                                 a solid  understanding ofS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   exaggerate                 evi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              evi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             basic Clarke
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   probability. Numerous                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              large part of the major advances in Bayesian nonparametric modeling and theory.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            – Judith Rousseau, Université Paris-Dauphine
                                                                                                                                                                                           worked examples are included and each chapter concludes
  significance • bayes factors vs bayesian posteriors refocus•andperformance                  vs outlook.
                                                                                                    probabilism
                                                                                                              The book also vs      probativism            • probability: epistemic            Jennifer vs variability   L. Clarke   •                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aad van der Vaart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Angus S. Macdonald,
                                                                     adopt a directly predictive                             considers  prediction
                                                      via contemporary “black box” techniques and emerging data types and methodol-                                                        with  exercises for which complete     solutions are provided.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Explosive growth in computing power has made Bayesian methods for infinite-di-
 y vs correlation • Fisher-Bayes disagreement • conditional                vs unconditional inference • no evidence against vs evidence for • behavioral
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              How to Get Beyond
                                                      ogies where conventional modeling is so difficult that good prediction is the main                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              mensional models – Bayesian nonparametrics – a nearly universal framework for
                                                      criterion available for evaluating the performance of a statistical method. Well-

  vs explanation • bootstrapping • randomized vs observational                      • false       discovery
                                                                                                                                                                                           David Dickson is Professor of Actuarial Studies at the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     inference, finding practical use in numerous subject areas. Written by leading
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Stephen J. Richards
                                                                                                     investigations. rates vs positive predictive values • University                      adequacy                vsHistruth        • interest is ruin
                                                      documented open-source R code in a Github repository allows readers to replicate
                                                                                                                                                                                                       of Melbourne.       main research                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              researchers, this authoritative text draws on theoretical advances of the past 20
                                                      examples and apply techniques        to other

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the Statistics Wars                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and Iain D. Currie
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      years to synthesize all aspects of Bayesian nonparametrics, from prior construction
                                                                                                                                                                                           theory, and he has published many papers in the leading
  oral vs evidential interpretation • popperian falsification vs carnapian confirmation • problem of induction • significance                                                                         test      controver
                                                                                                                                                                                                                controver-
                                                                                                                                                                                           international actuarial journals. He is a Fellow of the Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to computation and large sample behavior of posteriors. Because understanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the behavior of posteriors is critical to selecting priors that work, the large sample
                                                      CAMBRIDGE SERIES IN STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC MATHEMATICS
r: pre-data vs post-data • statistical science and philosophy of science • cherry-picking, data dredging, multiple testing                                                                           • estimation
                                                                                                                                                                                           and Faculty   of Actuaries in the UKvsand the Institute of Actuaries                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       theory is developed systematically, illustrated by various examples of model and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      prior combinations. Precise sufficient conditions are given, with complete proofs,
                                                      Editorial Board:                                                                                                                     of Australia, and has twice been awarded the H.M. Jackson
   Savage forum • subjective vs non-subjective priors          • stopping
                                                        Z. Ghahramani,    Department
                                                           University of Cambridge
                                                                                     rules:       relevant or irrelevant? • statistical crisis in science
                                                                                         of Engineering,
                                                                                                                                                                                           Prize of the• Institute
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bayes          boost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   of Actuaries of Australia, most recently for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      that ensure desirable posterior properties and behavior. Each chapter ends with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      historical notes and numerous exercises to deepen and consolidate the reader’s
radox • Fisher vs Neyman • relevance of outcomesF.R.other              than observed                   • preregistration
                                                           Gill, Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
                                                           P. Kelly, Department    of Pure Mathematics     and                            • Duhem’s problem • one-sided                              vs two-sided •
                                                                                                                                                                                           the first edition of this book. He is also a co-author of Actuarial
                                                                                                                                                                                           Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks, the recommended text
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      understanding, making the book valuable for graduate students and researchers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      alike in statistics and machine learning, as well as application areas such as econo-
                                                           Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge
del testing vs model selection • calibration: actual B.vs       hypothetical
                                                           D. Ripley,                       • likelihood
                                                                       Department of Statistics,    University of principle vs error probabilitie• significance                                       tests
                                                                                                                                                                                           for the Society         vs confi-
                                                                                                                                                                                                            of Actuariesconfi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MLC exam.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    metrics and biostatistics.
                                                            Oxford
uentist, fiducial, bayesian unification • Bayes factors        exaggerate
                                                        S. Ross,                        evidence
                                                                  Department of Industrial     and Systems • significance vs substantive significance • bay
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CAMBRIDGE SERIES IN STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC MATHEMATICS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              DEBOR AH G. MAYO
                                                           Engineering, University of Southern California
 agreement • conditional vs unconditional inference          • noDepartment
                                                        M. Stein,
                                                           Chicago
                                                                      evidence             against
                                                                                  of Statistics, University vs
                                                                                                            of evidence for • behavioral vs evidential • test bans • predic                                            predic-
                                                                                                                                                                                           Cover designed by Hart McLeod    Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Editorial Board:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Z. Ghahramani, Department of Engineering,
 • randomized vs observational • false discovery rates vs positive predictive values • adequacy vs truth • corroboration vs falsification •                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               University of Cambridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       R. Gill, Mathematical Institute, Leiden University
yes-frequentist controversy • p-values vs posteriors • confirmation vs falsification • probabilism vs performance vs probativeness • Jef                                                                                      Jef-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     F. P. Kelly, Department of Pure Mathematics and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mathematical Statistics, University of Cambridge                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Wouter de Nooy, Andrej Mrvar
  vs evidential interpretation • popperian falsification vs carnapian confirmation • problem of induction • significance test controversy •                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            B. D. Ripley, Department of Statistics, University of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oxford                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               and Vladimir Batagelj
 -data vs post-data • statistical science and philosophy of science • cherry-picking, data dredging, multiple testing • estimation vs test-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            S. Ross, Department of Industrial and Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Engineering, University of Southern California
 vage forum • subjective vs non-subjective priors • stopping rules: relevant or irrelevant? • statistical crisis in science • Bayes boost vs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           M. Stein, Department of Statistics, University of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Chicago
x • Fisher vs Neyman • relevance of outcomes other            than observed • preregistration • Duhem’s problem • one-sided vs two-sided • p-val-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               MAGALLAN ES REYES
                                                                 Magallanes Reyes. 9781107117419 PPC. C M Y K

                                                     Data science has now firmly moved from computer science and engineering to
  ting vs model selection • calibration: actual vs hypothetical
                                                     the disciplines of the   • likelihood
                                                                                  social sciences, principle
                                                                                                       where scholars vs  are error
                                                                                                                               harnessing
                                                     ful power of ever larger and more complex data sets. This volume provides a
                                                                                                                                          probabilities
                                                                                                                                             the insight-      • significance tests vs confidence                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Molchanov and Molinari
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Random Sets in Econometrics              ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY MONOGRAPHS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ROVERATO

  quentist, fiducial, bayesian unification • Bayes7factors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ImprovIng
                                                                     exaggerate
                                                     and Python, including bestTextbooks
                                                                                              evidence            • significance
                                                                                                                       researchers into thevs    usesubstantive
                                                                                                                                                                 What signifi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    For advanced students of network data science, this compact
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     von Winterfeldt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Tambe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Abbas

                                                     clear introduction      for social scientists      and policy                                   of R
                                                                                                                                                                      are the risk of terrorism and what are their consequences and economic impacts?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    account covers both well-established methodology and the theory

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         INTRODUCTION
                                                                                          practice of working with data files, command files,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Are we safer from terrorism today than before 9/11? Does the government spend our
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           and outputs. The step-by-step approach with real-world examples will be of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               of models recently introduced in the graphical model literature.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      homeland security funds well? These questions motivated a twelve-year research program
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           great value to students, scholars, and practitioners engaged in data analytic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            It focuses on the discrete case where all variables involved are

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Homeland
 hematical Statistics Textbooks                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       of the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) at the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Random Sets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           approaches to social problems.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          categorical and, in this context, it achieves a unified presentation of                                                                                                       SemStat

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Lectures on the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      University of Southern California, funded by the Department of Homeland Security. This
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Penrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Last and

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  – Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science and Pro Vice Chancellor,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           classical and recent results.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Nottingham
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      book showcases some of the most important results of this research and offers key insights
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 TO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        in Econometrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      on how to address the most important security problems of our time.
 ity of Oxford)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            DATA SCIENCE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           “The irruption of big data and the need to comply with high standards of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  SecurIty
  sity of Oxford)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Written for homeland security researchers and practitioners, this book covers a wide range

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Poisson Process
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           research reproducibility require social scientists and policy analysts to be con-
 rd University)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       of methodologies and real-world examples of how to reduce terrorism risks, increase the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           versant in data collection and management techniques. Unfortunately, even
 rd University)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       efficient use of homeland security resources, and thereby make better decisions overall.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           those with sophisticated methodological training often lack the necessary tools
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Graphical Models for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Lectures on the Poisson Process

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      FOR SOCIAL AND POLICY RESEARCH

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ISBN Author format C M Y K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           to take on these requirements. Magallanes Reyes’s book at long last collects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       INTRODUCTION TO DATA SCIENCE

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ali e. abbas is Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Professor of Public
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Graphical Models for Categorical Data

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    FOR SOCIAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           and organizes a large amount of information and useful advice on how to curate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  DecIsIons
  ss, a core object in modern probability, enjoys a richer theory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Categorical Data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Policy and Management at the University of Southern California. He also serves as the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           data for scientific analysis. Through agile narrative and compelling examples, he
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Günter Last and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                decISIonS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Homeland SecurIty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ImprovIng

   appreciated. This volume develops the theory in the setting of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     director of the Center for Interdisciplinary Decisions and Ethics (DECIDE). His research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           walks the reader through the use of open-source tools of data science such as R,
 measure space, establishing basic results and properties as well                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     interests focus on all aspects of decision making under uncertainty broadly defined. He is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Python, and Github. The book is an invaluable resource for students and scholars
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      author of two books, two edited volumes, and has more than 100 refereed publications.
  d topics in the stochastic analysis of the Poisson process. Also
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mathew Penrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           at different levels of proficiency, from neophytes to advanced users.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      He has organized numerous workshops on decision making in large-scale systems

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    AND POLICY
  ications and related topics in stochastic geometry, including                                                                                                                                                                                                    – Guillermo Rosas, Washington University in St. Louis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with NASA Langley, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Department
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               9781107161887 ABBAS – HOMELAND SECURITY PPC C M Y K

 rocesses, the Boolean model, the Gilbert graph, stable allocations,
  ocesses. Comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained, this text is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           “This new, practical, reader-friendly how-to manual on computational social
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      of Homeland Security, and the National Science Foundation.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 edited by   Ali e. Abbas, milind Tambe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           data analysis is both long overdue and a must-have for analysts and research-
 courses or for self-study, with a substantial number of exercises for                                                                                                                                                                                     ers. The range of problem-solving strategies and demonstrations is impressive.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      milind tambe is Professor of Computer Science and Professor of Industrial and Systems
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Engineering at the University of Southern California. He is a founding co-director of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and  Detlof
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   About the series:von Winterfeldt Series editor:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RESEARCH
 hematical prerequisites, mainly a sound knowledge of measure-                                                                                                                                                                                             While eminently practical, Magallanes Reyes’s contribution is also rigorous and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          SemStat Elements is the exclusive vehicle        Ernst Wit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      USC Center on Artificial Intelligence in Society. Among his pioneering contributions in
 ity, are kept in the background, but are reviewed comprehensively                                                                                                                                                                                         true to its scientific aims, which will please both basic and applied scientists and                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     for short monographs prepared by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           practitioners.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Artificial Intelligence is the security games framework that has been deployed by agencies                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Chair of Statistics
 he authors are well-known researchers in probability theory;
 tic geometry. Their approach is informed both by their research                                                                                                                                                                                                   – Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, Professor of Computational Social Science and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Director, Center for Social Complexity, George Mason University,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      such as the US Coast Guard, Federal Air Marshals Service, and various nongovernmental
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      organizations, for which he has received several commendations. He is a fellow of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the invited lecturers at the Seminaires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Européens de Statistiques (SemStat).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SemStat is known for high-quality courses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and Probability at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     the University of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Alberto Roverato
 sive experience in teaching at undergraduate and graduate levels.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Association for Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI) and Association for Computing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and founding President, Computational Social Science Society                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Groningen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Machinery (ACM).                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              of expository lectures on important new
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     of the Americas
 essor of Stochastics at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. He                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  developments in statistics delivered at
 probabilist with particular expertise in stochastic geometry, point                                                                                                                                                                                       “Magallanes Reyes’s excellent book on data science for researchers and policy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering and Professor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Collecting and Organizing Data                                                                                                                                                                                 a biennial meeting to an audience of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ilya Molchanov
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      of Public Policy and Management at the University of Southern California. His research
dom measures. He coauthored a research monograph on marked                                                                                                                                                                                                 analysts is an accessible yet thorough introduction to data management and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            with R and Python
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      interests are in the foundation and practice of decision and risk analysis. In 2004, he co-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    advanced PhD students. Each meeting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    is organized around a particular theme
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Francesca Molinari
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ESM 60

n the line as well as two textbooks on general mathematics. He has                                                                                                                                                                                         analyses in R and Python. It has a broad coverage of the techniques required to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      founded the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)
d talks on his research worldwide.                                                                                                                                                                                                                         capture, clean, and process complex information. It is the perfect companion for                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         by the European Regional Committee of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and serves as its current director. He is the author of two books, three edited volumes, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           sophisticated policy analysts and researchers that are ready to take advantage                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           the Bernoulli Society, and the Bernoulli
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      more than 100 refereed articles and chapters. He is a fellow of the Institute for Operations
 s Professor of Probability at the University of Bath. He is an                                                                                                                                                                                            of the wealth of data that is available to skilled computer scientists.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Society sponsors the SemStat Elements
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) and of the Society for Risk Analysis.
  ding researcher in stochastic geometry and applied probability                                                                                                                                                                                                  – Ernesto Calvo, University of Maryland                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           series.
  f the influential monograph Random Geometric Graphs.
  edrich Wilhelm Bessel Research Award from the Humboldt
  8, and has held visiting positions as guest lecturer in New Delhi,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cover image courtesy of © Westhoff / E+ / Getty Images                                                                                                                                                                          J OSE MANUEL MAG AL L ANES REYES                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ISSN 2398-404X (online)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ISSN 2514-3778 (print)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cover design by Holly Johnson                                                                                                                              Cover image: Capitol Hill with US flag.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Copyright © franckreporter/iStockphoto.com

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cover design by ALICE SOLOWAY
                                                                                                                9781108415859 Anderson et al. PPC C M Y K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Cambridge Series in Statistical                                                                                                                                                            CAMBRIDGE              MATH EMATIC AL

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Research Methods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                TE X TBOOKS                                                                                                                   Probability has applications in many areas of modern science, not
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Tijms

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              and Probabilistic Mathematics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               KOLACZYK

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                This snapshot of the current frontier of statistics and network                                                                               to mention in our daily life, and its importance as a mathematical
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              discipline cannot be overrated. This engaging book, with its easy to

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         INTRODUCTION TO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to                             David F. Anderson is a Professor of                                                                                                       analysis focuses on the foundational topics of modeling, sampling,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            AND VALKÓ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            SEPPÄLÄINEN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ANDERSON,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     probability theory with the right balance between                                Mathematics at the University of                                                                                                          and design. Primarily for graduate students and researchers in                                                                                follow writing style, provides a comprehensive, yet concise, introduction

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and                             Wisconsin-Madison.                                                                                                                        statistics and closely related fields, emphasis is not only on what                                                                           to the subject. It covers all of the standard material for undergraduate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              and first-year-graduate-level courses, as well as many topics that
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     concrete applications. Introduction to Probability                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SemStat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          PROBABILITY: A LIVELY INTRODUCTION

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              High-Dimensional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Timo Seppäläinen is the John                                                                                                              has been done, but on what remains to be done.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PROBABILITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive                          and Abigail Van Vleck Chair of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          are usually not found in standard texts – such as Bayesian inference,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     technical details. Intended for students with a calculus                         Mathematics at the University of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation, and Chernoff bounds.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     background, the text teaches not only the nuts and                               Wisconsin-Madison.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The student-friendly text has the following additional features:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Probability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific                            Benedek Valkó is a Professor of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     problems, but also why the methods of solution work.                             Mathematics at the University of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Is the result of many years of teaching and feedback from students
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Wisconsin-Madison.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Stresses why probability is so relevant and how to apply it
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Topics at the Frontier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     FEATURES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ISBN Author format C M Y K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        David F. Anderson | Timo Seppäläinen | Benedek Valkó
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Henk Tijms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Presented in full color and written in an accessible                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   • Offers many real-world examples to support the theory
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      An Introduction with
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Topics at the Frontier of Statistics and Network Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       way, the text provides a comprehensive and well-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       balanced introduction to probability.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Applications in Data Science
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Includes more than 750 problems with detailed solutions of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                odd-numbered problems                                                               of Statistics and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Network Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Pedagogical features include numerous examples to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Gives students confidence in their own problem-solving skills
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        illustrate concepts and theory, over 600 exercises of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        varying levels, and separate Finer Points sections for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Roman Vershynin
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Henk Tijms is Professor Emeritus at the Vrije University in Amsterdam.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        technical details.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    He is the author of several textbooks and numerous papers on applied
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              probability and stochastic optimization. In 2008 Henk Tijms received
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     “The authors have carefully chosen a set of core topics,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     resisting the temptation to overload the reader. They                                                                                                                                                                      About the series:                                     Series editor:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the prestigious INFORMS Expository Writing Award for his publications                 (Re)Visiting the Foundations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          A LIVELY INTRODUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     tie it all together with a coherent philosophy. Knowing                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and books. His activities also include the popularization of probability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SemStat Elements is the exclusive vehicle             Ernst Wit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     the authors’ work, I would expect nothing less. I predict                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                for high-school students and the general public.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                for short monographs prepared by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     that this text will become the standard for beginning                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Chair of Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     probability courses.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     – Carl Mueller, University of Rochester
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the invited lecturers at the Seminaires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Européens de Statistiques (SemStat).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                SemStat is known for high-quality courses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and Probability at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the University of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Eric D. Kolaczyk
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Groningen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     “This is an excellent book written by three active                                                                                                                                                                         of expository lectures on important new
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     researchers in probability that combines both solid                                                                                                                                                                        developments in statistics delivered at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     mathematics and the distinctive style of thinking                                                                                                                                                                          a biennial meeting to an audience of                                                                                                                                                                          Online Resources
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     needed for modeling random systems. It also has a great                                                                                                                                                                    advanced PhD students. Each meeting is                                                                                                                                                                        www.cambridge.org/TijmsProbability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     collection of problems. I expect it to become a standard                                                                                                                                                                   organized around a particular theme.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     textbook for undergraduate probability courses at least                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Solutions manual with answers to odd and even-numbered
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9781108407847: Tijms: Cover: C M Y K

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     in the US.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              problems for instructors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     – Gregory F. Lawler, University of Chicago                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Powerpoint slides of figures

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            asv
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Instructor’s Manual with solutions to selected problems                                                                                                                                                                .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cover credit: Terrace chairs © Bryce Richter / University of Wisconsin-Madison                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cover image: EyesWideOpen/Getty Images
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Bernard C. Beins ••• Maureen A. McCarthy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cover designed by Zoe Naylor.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Cover design: Andrew Ward                                                                                                          ISSN 2398-404X (online)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ISSN 2514-3778 (print)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                www.cambridge.org/JSM2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      37961.indd 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               23/04/2018 14:33
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                     question and task you complete to win prizes at the end of the week.
                     The JSM Challenge runs Saturday through Wednesday, with new
       Don’t miss    questions each day. You’ll be working together for a special prize
       out on the
  opportunity to     that will light up this year’s Dance Party. What are you waiting for?
    have fun and
win great prizes!    Get glowing! (Don’t worry—if you’re the competitive type, our four
  Download the
  JSM app from       top-scoring participants will also receive individual prizes.)
     Google Play
       or the App
    Store. For all
  other devices,
  a web version      CONVENTION HOUSING
   is available at   Fairmont Waterfront (HQ)       (604) 691-1991          Pan Pacific Hotel Vancouver (604) 662-8111
     ww2.amstat.
  org/meetings/      Days Inn Vancouver             (604) 681-4335          Pinnacle Hotel Harbourfront (604) 689-9211
       jsm/2018/     Delta Vancouver Suites         (604) 689-8188          Sheraton Wall Centre       (604) 331-1000
          jsmapp.
                     Fairmont Vancouver             (604) 684-3131          Sheraton Vancouver Airport (604) 273-7878
                     Four Seasons Hotel             (604) 689-9333          The Douglas, Autograph     (604) 676-0889
                     Vancouver                                              Collection Vancouver
                     Hampton Inn & Suites           (604) 602-1008          Vancouver Marriott         (604) 684-1128
                                                                            Pinnacle Downtown
                     Hyatt Regency Vancouver        (604) 683-1234
                                                                            Westin Bayshore Vancouver (604) 682-3377
                     JW Marriott Parq Vancouver (604) 676-0888

                     SOCIAL MEDIA

                     Join the Joint Statistical Meetings conversation by using                     WIFI
                     #JSM2018 on social media. Also follow the official ASA social
                     media accounts for news, pictures, and last-minute updates.           SPONSORED BY
                                                                                              AbbVie
                        • www.facebook.com/          • www.instagram.com/
                                                                                          Network: JSM2018
                         AmstatNews                   AmstatNews
                        • www.twitter.com/           • community.amstat.org             Password: abbvie2018
                         AmstatNews

6   JSM2018
QUICK GUIDE - American Statistical Association
!!!

DOCENT PROGRAM
Questions? New to JSM? Find a JSM docent
to help you learn the ropes. JSM docents are
experienced JSM attendees wearing an orange
button (pictured) who can help you make the
most of your experience.

Emergency                        Policies                         JSM 2018 presenters are
                                                                                                                            PROCEED
Telephone Messages               Electronic Devices               available at ww2.amstat.                  JS
                                                                                                              M                    I
                                                                  org/meetings/jsm/2018/

                                                                                                                                                          NG
                                 All cell phones, pagers, and

                                                                                                  8
In case of emergency,

                                                                                               201
                                 other electronic devices         submissions.cfm. The

                                                                                                                                                             S
messages may be left                                              submission site will open
during registration hours by     should be silenced before

                                                                                                                                                                        • ISI
                                                                  August 28, 2018, and

                                                                                                   ASA •
                                 attending any session or

                                                                                                                                                                    RSS
calling (778) 331-7615. We                                        close September 29, 2018

                                                                                                    EN

                                                                                                                                                                   A•
                                 meeting.

                                                                                                      AR

                                                                                                                                                                   SB
will attempt to contact the

                                                                                                                                                              •I
                                                                                                           •W
                                                                  (11:59 p.m. EDT).
                                                                                                            N
                                                                                                                AR                                            IS

                                                                                                                                                          S
                                                                                                                     • IM                                •K
registrant using the contact                                                                                                S•S
                                                                                                                                  SC • ICSA • I
                                                                                                                                                  IS A

information provided in          Smoking
their registration.              Smoking is not permitted at      Meetings Conduct
                                 any JSM function, unless the     Policy*
Assistance for Those             event is held outside.
                                                                  As a professional society,
with Disabilities                Recycling
                                                                  the American Statistical
                                                                  Association (ASA) is                     *Please read the
Please contact a                 Please use the paper,
                                                                  committed to providing an                complete Conduct
staff member at the              plastic, and aluminum                                                     Policy at www.
                                                                  atmosphere that encourages
Help Desk in the                 trash containers located                                                  amstat.org/
                                                                  the free expression and
registration area if             throughout the convention                                                 meetings/jsm/
                                                                  exchange of ideas. Consistent
you have a disability that may   center. Also, participating in                                            2018/conduct
                                                                  with this commitment, it is
impede your participation.       the towel and linen programs                                              policy.cfm.
                                                                  the policy of the ASA that all
                                 at area hotels makes a
                                                                  participants in ASA activities
Child Care                       significant difference in the
                                                                  will enjoy a welcoming
Kiddie Corp is the official      amount of energy and water
                                                                  environment free from
child care provider for          used. Finally, place JSM
                                                                  unlawful discrimination,
JSM 2018. Arrangements           badges and badge holders
                                                                  harassment, and retaliation.
should have been made            in one of the designated bins
                                                                  All participants in ASA
in advance. Please contact       when leaving.
                                                                  activities also agree to
Kiddie Corp at (858) 455-                                         comply with all rules and
1718 or info@kiddiecorp.         JSM Proceedings                  conditions of the activities,
com for any questions or         Eligibility guidelines and       which are subject to change
possible availability.           author instructions for          without notice.

                                                                     VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA                                                            7
!!!
              HOURS OF OPERATION
              Registration and ASA Membership/                     EXPO 2018
              Help Desk/Press Desk                                 CC-West Hall B
              CC-West Ballroom Foyer                               Visit publishers, software companies, and
              JSM registration includes the JSM Quick              recruiters. See state-of-the-art products
              Guide; access to the exhibit hall; and               designed for the statistical community. Make
              admission to the Opening Mixer, Student              sure to check out the coffee, refreshment, and
              Mixer (students only), and JSM Dance Party.          lunch options available each day, as well.

              Saturday                  7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.                               1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.,
                                                                   Sunday
                                                                                            8:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m.
              Sunday                    7:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m.
                                                                   Monday – Tuesday         9:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m.
              Monday – Tuesday          7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.
                                                                   Wednesday                9:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m.
              Wednesday                 7:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.
              Thursday                  7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
                                                                   Cyber Center
                                                                   CC-West Ballroom Foyer
              Speaker Management Room                              Send email, print boarding passes, and check
              Sponsored by AbbVie                                  the JSM online program using available
              CC-West 103/104                                      computers and printers.
              Speakers are required to check in four hours         Saturday                 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.
              prior to their presentations to upload their
              materials to the speaker management system or        Sunday                   7:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m.
              confirm their materials were uploaded correctly.     Monday – Tuesday         7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.
              Session chairs also should check in to confirm all
                                                                   Wednesday                7:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.
              speakers have uploaded their materials.
                                                                   Thursday                 7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
              Sunday                    9:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.

              Monday – Wednesday        7:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m.      ASA Store (inside EXPO 2018)
              Thursday                  7:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.     CC-West Hall B, Booth #401
                                                                   The ASA Store is the place for your official JSM
              Career Service                                       2018 T-shirt and other JSM and ASA souvenirs.
              CC-West Hall A
                                                                                            1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.,
                                                                   Sunday
                                 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. (Pre-                                8:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m.
                                 registered attendee badge         Monday – Tuesday         9:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m.
              Saturday
                                 pick-up and onsite registration
                                 only)                             Wednesday                9:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m.
              Sunday             1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m.
                                                                   Vancouver Restaurant & Tourism
              Monday – Tuesday 8:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m.
                                                                   Information Center
                                 8:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. (onsite     CC-West Ballroom Foyer
              Wednesday
                                 registration closes at noon)
                                                                   Operated by Tourism Vancouver, this center
              JSM Luggage Storage                                  provides extensive information about and
              CC-West Ballroom Foyer                               referrals for restaurants and sightseeing. Stop
                                                                   by the desk and pick up maps and travel
              Wednesday                 8:00 a.m. – 6:30 p.m.      information.
              Thursday                  8:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m.      Saturday – Wednesday     10:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
8   JSM2018
!!!
SPECIAL EVENTS
                                          ASA Longtime Member
 FIRST TIMER                              Reception (by invitation only),
                                          Sponsored by Westat
                                          Monday, July 30, 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
JSM First-Time Attendee                   CC-West 201
Orientation and Reception                 This annual reception is held to
Sunday, July 29, 12:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m.   honor ASA members who have
CC-West Ballroom D                        shown dedication to the
Join fellow first-timers at this          association for 35 or
orientation reception and learn how       more years.
to become involved in JSM. Hear
about the benefits of membership          JSM Dance Party
and get tips about the conference.        Tuesday, July 31, 9:30 p.m.
                                          – 12:00 a.m.
JSM Opening Mixer & Invited               CC-West Ballroom D
Poster Session, sponsored by              A fun highlight of JSM, the
Eli Lilly & Company                       dance party is held right
Sunday, July 29, 8:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m.   after the ASA President’s
                                          Address and Founders
CC-West Hall B
                                          & Fellows Recognition.
All conference attendees are              There are snacks, a cash
encouraged to come together for           bar, and music!
the kick-off social event of JSM.

ASA Awards Celebration and
Editor Appreciation
Sunday, July 29, 7:30 p.m. – 8:30 p.m.
CC-West 211
The Sunday night awards ceremony
recognizes retiring editors and
honorees of annual ASA awards,
section awards, and scholarships.             The JSM Opening Mixer is in the
JSM Student Mixer                             EXPO! Sunday from 8:30 p.m.–
Monday, July 30, 6:00 p.m. – 8:00 p.m.
CC-West Ballroom D
                                              10:30 p.m. Some exhibitors will
The Student Mixer provides an                 have refreshments. Look for more
opportunity for students to join their
contemporaries for a fun-filled time.         information inside the EXPO.

                                                                  VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA   9
!!!
                                                             POTLIGHT
               Join us for featured
               events throughout the
                                                            S
               week that give you a little
               taste of the city. Check out
               the schedule and stop by
               Spotlight to see more!                  VA
                                                               N CO U VE

                                                                                        R
               Sunday, July 29
               1:00 p.m.
               Spotlight Vancouver Kick-Off
               Swing by and kick off JSM with          3:30 p.m.
               samples of area specialties like wild   Tasty Vancouver Fruit Tartelettes
               salmon sliders, porcini mushroom
               tarts, and BBQ duck spring rolls.       No time to venture to Granville Island?
               Enjoy while they last!                  No matter. Enjoy fresh samples of fruit
                                                       tartelettes made from local fruit and
                                                       berries (while supplies last) and mingle
                                                       with other attendees.

                                                       8:30 p.m.
                                                       Opening Mixer Popcorn,
                                                        Sponsored by Netflix
                                                        Enjoy a pick-me-up with a traditional
                                                       popcorn break.

                VANCOUVER
                     Interested in giving back
                                                           Connect with other JSM attendees while
                            while in Vancouver?            making blankets (no sewing involved) to be
                                                           donated to those in need. Just drop by Spotlight
                                                           Monday through Wednesday between 11:30 a.m.
                                                           and 1:00 p.m. to participate.

10   JSM2018
Monday, July 30
9:00 a.m.
Vancouver Insider Tips
Whether you seek tips for              3:30 p.m.
activities and food nearby or the      Vancouver Microbrew
variety of options surrounding         Tasting, Sponsored by RTI
lovely Vancouver and whether           International
you have been to Vancouver             Stop by to taste a variety of
before or need a rundown for           Vancouver microbrews (while
your first time in the city, Tourism   supplies last).
Vancouver is here to guide you.
                                       Tuesday, July 31
                                       10:00 a.m.
10:00 a.m.                             Get Your JSM Energy Fix
JSM Coffee House                         Come power up with fresh
                                          fruit and yogurt smoothie
Refresh with a cup
                                           samples (strawberry,
of coffee or tea from
                                           mango, or blueberry) and
Vancouver’s local
                                            energy bars.
organic, fair-trade coffee
maker, Moja Coffee.
                                            1:30 p.m.
Enjoy the featured
house blend, Rainforest                    Popcorn Break,
Alliance Sumatra, or                      Sponsored by Netflix
choose from a variety
of imported teas.
                                       Enjoy an afternoon
                                       pick-me-up with a traditional
                                       popcorn break.
                                                                           DATA ART
                                       3:30 p.m.
11:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.                 Experience B.C. Wines               Explore the art in data art
JSM Photo Booth, Sponsored by          Don’t miss this chance to taste     with the JSM exhibit
Cytel, Inc.                            local wines. Sample a variety of    featuring data artists located
                                       red and white wines from B.C.’s     on the EXPO floor!
Stop by to create memories with        famous Okanagan Valley (while
your friends using fun props.          supplies last).
1:30 p.m.
Popcorn Break, Sponsored by
                                       Wednesday, August 3
XLSTAT                                 10:00 a.m.
Enjoy an afternoon pick-me-up with     JSM Coffee House
a traditional popcorn break.           Refresh with a cup of coffee
                                       or tea from Vancouver’s local
                                       organic, fair-trade coffee maker,
                                       Moja Coffee. Enjoy the featured
                                       house blend, Rainforest Alliance
                                       Sumatra, or choose from a variety
                                         of imported teas.

                                                                VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA         11
FEATURED SPEAKERS
               SUNDAY
                         IMS Medallion Lecture I
                         2:00 p.m.
                         CC-West 109
                         Statistical Inference for Complex Extreme Events
                         Anthony Davison, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

               MONDAY
                         ASA President’s Invited Address
                         4:00 p.m.
                         CC-West Ballroom BC
                         Laura Evans, The New York Times

                         JSM Public Lecture
                         7:00 p.m.
                         CC-West Ballroom A
                         Born on Friday the Thirteenth: The Curious
                         World of Probabilities
                         Jeffrey Rosenthal, University of Toronto

               TUESDAY
                         ASA Deming Lecture
                         4:00 p.m.
                         CC-West Ballroom BC
                         Improving the Quality and Value of Statistical
                         Information: 14 Questions on Management
                         John L. Eltinge, US Census Bureau

                         ASA President’s Address and Founders &
                         Fellows Recognition
                         8:00 p.m.
                         CC-West Ballroom BC
                         Choose to Lead
                         Lisa LaVange, The University of North Carolina

12   JSM2018
WEDNESDAY
                  IMS Medallion Lecture II
                  2:00 p.m.
                  CC-West Ballroom A
                  Statistical Analysis of Large Tensors
                  Ming Yuan, Columbia University

                  COPSS Awards & Fisher Lecture
                  4:00 p.m.
                  CC-West Ballroom BC
                  The Future: Stratified Micro-Randomized Trials with
                  Applications in Mobile Health
                  Susan Murphy, Harvard University

 INTRODUCTORY                                              LATE-BREAKING
 OVERVIEW LECTURES                                         SESSIONS
 Sunday, July 29,           Monday, July 30                Monday, July 30, 2:00 p.m.
 2:00 p.m.                  10:30 a.m.
                                                           CC-West Ballroom A
 CC-West Ballroom A         CC-West Ballroom A
                                                           Session 211 – Addressing
 Session 2 – The Deep       Session 137 –                  Sexual Misconduct
 Learning Revolution        Multivariate Data              in the Statistics Community
                            Modeling with Copulas
 Sunday, July 29                                           Tuesday, July 31, 10:30 a.m.
 4:00 p.m.                  Tuesday, July 31
                            8:30 a.m.                      CC-West Ballroom A
 CC-West 301
                            CC-West Ballroom A             Session 316 – Statistical Issues
 Session 42 – Examining                                    in Application of Machine
 What and How We            Session 271 –
                            Reproducibility, Efficient     Learning to High-Stakes
 Teach at All Levels: Key                                  Decisions
 Ideas to Ensure the        Workflows, and Rich
 Progress and Relevance     Environments
 of Statistics
                            Wednesday, August 1,
 Monday, July 30            8:30 a.m.
 8:30 a.m.                  CC-West Ballroom A
 CC-West Ballroom A         Session 448 – The
 Session 95 – Leading       Statistical and Data
 Data Science: Talent,      Revolution in the Social
                            Sciences
 Strategy, and Impact

                                                         VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA   13
West Exhibition Level
                                                                                  Hall B

                                                CONCESSIONS

               EXHIBITOR
               LOUNGE

                               541    540 441   440 341           340 241   240

                               539    538 439   438 339           338 239   238

                               537    536 437   436 337           336 237   236

                                         CHARGING STATIONS
                               531    530 431   DATA              330 231   230
                                                 ART
                               529    528 429   SHOW              328 229   228

                               527    526 427                     326 227   226
                                                     TLIGHT
                                                  SPO
                               525    524 425                     324 225   224
                                                 VA
                                                      N CO U VE
                                                            R

                           ePOSTERS                                   POSTERS

                               509    508 409   408 309           308 209   208

                                      506 407   406 307           306 207
                               507                                          206

                               505    504 405   404 305           304 205   204
                                                                                        EXHIBITOR

                               503    502 403   402 303           302 203   202
                                                                                        CHECK IN

                               501    500 401   400 301           300 201   200

                                                RESTROOMS                    ENTRANCE

14   JSM2018                          ESCALATORS TO MAIN LEVEL
Exhibitor Name                Booth Number   Exhibitor Name               Booth Number
Advanced Clinical             441            National Security Agency     529, 531

American Statistical                         NCSS                         200
                              400, 402
Association                                  Netflix                      525
Aptech Systems, Inc.          330            NISS                         341
ASA Store                     401,403,405    nQuery                       328
Barrington James              509            Oxford University Press      505
Berry Consultants             324            Pearson                      231
Bureau of Economic Analysis 506              Penfield Search
                                                                          226
Cambridge University Press    202, 204       Partners, LLC

Cengage                       239            Penn State University
                                                                          206
                                             World Campus
CITI Program, a division
                              507            PRA Health Sciences          440             The JSM
of BRANY
                                                                                          Opening Mixer
Clindata Insight              427            Predictive Analytics Group   527             is in the Expo!
                                                                                          Sunday
Covance / Chiltern            228            Responsive Survey Design:
                                                                          408             from 8:30 p.m. –
                                             A Research Education Pro                     10:30 p.m. Some
CRC Press/Taylor &
                              337,436,438    RStudio Inc.                 536             exhibitors will
Francis Group
                                                                                          have refreshments.
Cytel                         524, 425       SAGE Publishing              508             Look for more
                                                                                          information inside
Exploristics Ltd              541            Sandia National Labs         538
                                                                                          the EXPO.
FDA                           237            SAS EDU Practice             207, 209

FDA                           336            SAS PUBS                     306, 308

Frontline Systems Inc.        230            SAS R&D                      201, 203, 205

H2O.ai                        236            SIAM                         406

IBM                           530            Springer                     307, 309

Institute of Mathematical                    StataCorp LLC                301,303,305
                              407
Statistics (IMS)                             Statgraphics
                                                                          501
JMP a software from SAS       300,302,304    Technologies, Inc.

JSM 2019: Denver, CO          404            STAT-HAWKERS                 224

Jump Trading                  537            Statistical Society of
                                                                          409
                                             Canada (SSC)
Lyft                          539
                                             Takeda Pharmacetical Co.     208
Maplesoft                     526
                                             The Lotus Group, LLC         437
Minitab                       500,502,504
                                             TWO SIGMA                    503
National Center for
                              227            University of Kansas Dept.
Education Statistics (NCES)                                               338
                                             of Biostat
National Center for
                              241            Wiley                        429, 431
Health Statistics
National Science                             Xiaoju Science and
                              326                                         229
Foundation                                   Technology Limited
                                             XLSTAT                       225
                                             Zillow Group                 528

                                                                  VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA    15
NORTH ▲
                                                                                                                            KEY
                                                                                                                                  ESCALATOR

                                                                                                                                  STAIRS
      CONVENTION CENTRE • WEST LEVEL 1                                                                                            ELEVATOR

      CC-West                                                                                                                     RESTROOMS

      •   Roundtables                •   Plenary Sessions              • First-Time Attendee

      •   Fellows Reception          •   Speaker Management               Orientation and Reception
                                                                       • Access  to Exhibit Hall
      •   Dance Party                •   Cyber Center
                                                                          and Level 2

                                                                                                                             120       119
                                                   BALLROOM D
                                                                                                      122   121                               TO/FROM
                                                                                                                                    118       LEVEL 2

                                                                                      ROUNDTABLES
                                                                                      FIRST-TIME ATTENDEE
                                                                                      ORIENTATION AND RECEPTION
                                                  BALLROOM BC                         DANCE PARTY

                                                                                                               114    115    116     117

                                                  BALLROOM BC                                                  113    112   111

                                                                                                                     110

                                                  BALLROOM A                             SPEAKER                     109
                                                                                       MANAGEMENT
                                                                                          ROOM

                            NURSING
                              ROOMS                             101 102     103/104    105/106   107 108
                         AND FIRST AID

                                                                                         JSM CHILD CARE
                                                                                                                                   SEAWALL
                   CYBER CENTER
                                                            JSM REGISTRATION                                                       PATHWAY
                                                                                            TO/FROM
                                     TO/FROM                                                LEVEL 2
                                     LEVEL 2
                                                       VANCOUVER
                                                     RESTAURANTS &                        TWITTER
                                                          TOURISM                         WALL
                                                             DESK                                                            TO/FROM
                                                                                                                             LOBBY &
     THURLOW                                 TO/FROM                        TO/FROM                  TO/FROM                 HARBOUR
     STREET                                  EXPO (Hall B) AND              EXPO (Hall B) AND       ENTRANCE                 CONCOURSE
     ENTRANCE                                CAREER SERVICE (Hall A)        CAREER SERVICE (Hall A)                          CONNECTOR TO
                                                                                                                             EAST BUILDING
                                                                                                                BURRARD
                                                                                                                STREET
                                                                                                                ENTRANCE

16   JSM2018
NORTH ▲
                                                                                                                      KEY
                                                                                                                           ESCALATOR

 CONVENTION CENTRE • WEST LEVEL 2
                                                                                                                           STAIRS

 CC-West
                                                                                                                           ELEVATOR

                                                                                                                           RESTROOMS

 • Business and Committee Meetings         • Access to Level 1
 • Committee Tables                        • Access to Level 3 (Living Roof )
 • Speaker Luncheons

                                                                                                                           222         221
                                                                                                 224         223                              TO/FROM
                                                                                                                                              LEVEL 3
                                                                                                                                 220

                                                                                                       215/216      217    218         219

                                                                                                                                            LES
                                                                                                                                        TAB
                                                                                                   214        213    212

                                                                                                                                       TEE
                                                                                                                                  MIT
                                                                                                              211

                                                                                                                                M
                                                                                                                             CO

                                                                                      BEEHIVES

STAIRS
TO          201
LEVEL 1                                                                   209                          210
                             202     203     204    205   206    207
                                                                          208
          SPEAKER
          LUNCHEONS

                                      TO/FROM LEVEL 1
                                                                                LIVING ROOF
            TERRACE

                                                                                      VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA                               17
CONVENTION CENTRE • WEST LEVEL 3
CC-West
 •   Business and
     Committee Meetings
 • Access   to/from Level 2

                                                  305/304     303 302
                                            306
                                                            301

                              LIVING ROOF

18    JSM2018
CONVENTION CENTRE • EAST GROUND LEVEL
                                  CC-East

                                             TO/FROM
                      UNDERGROUND            WEST BUILDING CONNECTOR
                  CONNECTOR TO/FROM                                                                                             TO/FROM
                      WEST BUILDING                                                                                        MEETING LEVEL

CONVENTION CENTRE LOBBY                                             TO/FROM MEETING
                                                                    LEVEL & HOTEL
                 UNDERGROUND
                  CONNECTOR TO
             FOOD COURT & HOTEL
                                       TO/FROM
                                       FOOD COURT & HOTEL

                       KEY                              CONVENTION CENTRE • EAST LEVEL 1
                            ESCALATOR
                                                        CC-East
                            STAIRS
                                                        •   Professional                   •   Business and       •   Access to Ground
                            ELEVATOR                        Development                        Committee              Level, Pan Pacific
                                                        •   Technical Sessions                 Meetings               Hotel
                            RESTROOMS

                                          STAIRS TO GROUND LEVEL

                                                               4         5        6
    1              3                                                                                              TO/FROM            10
                                                                                                                  DELEGATE
                                                                                                                  CONCOURSE

 PARK VIEW         2
 TERRACE                                                                              7                 8     9
                                                                                                                                11

                                      TO/FROM                 TO PAN PACIFIC
                                      LEVEL 2 & LOBBY                 HOTEL           16
                                                                                                        15                      12
SOUTHFOYER

                                                                                                                                13

                                                               20                                  17
                                                                             19       18
                                                                                                                                14

                                          STAIRS TO GROUND LEVEL

                                                                                               VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA         19
CA
         FAIRMONT WATERFRONT                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                                              A
                                                                                                                                                  D
         LOBBY LEVEL                                                                                                                               A

                                                                                    FRONT DESK

                                                                                                                                            PL
                                                                                                                                             M

                                                                                                                                              AC
                                                                                                                                               AI
                                                                                                         LOBBY

                                                                                                                                                 N

                                                                                                                                                  EW ANC
                                                                                                                                                   EN

                                                                                                                                                    AY
                                                                                                                                                     TR

                                                                                                                                                       EN
                                                                                                                        PARKING ELEVATOR

                                                                                                                                                         TR
                                                                                                                                                          E

                                                                                                                                                           AN
                                           WATERFRONT

                                                                                                                                                             CE
                                            BALLROOM

                                                  C

        PLAZA   WATERFRONT
     ENTRANCE     FOYER

                                      B                   A

                                                                                                             SECHELT
                                                                                                                                           HOWE STREET
                                                                                                                                           ENTRANCE

         CONCOURSE LEVEL

                                                                                                        MALASPINA
                                          II
                                         E
                                      ZI

                                                               NOOTKA
                                     KEN
                                  AC
                                  M
                              I
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                                                                                 TO/FROM
                                                                                 LOBBY LEVEL             KEY
                                                                                                                       ESCALATOR

                                                                                                                       STAIRS

                                                                                                                       ELEVATOR
                                                          TO SKYTRAIN, SEABUS,
                                                          CONVENTION CENTRE,                                           RESTROOMS
                                                          AND MALL

20    JSM2018
FAIRMONT WATERFRONT
TERRACE LEVEL

                                    TERRACE ROOM

                     HEALTH CLUB

SECOND LEVEL
                             RESTAURANT AND LOUNGE

                                   PRINCESS
                                    LOUISA    BURRARD
                                     SUITE      SUITE
                UR
              MO
           SEY

     KEY
       ESCALATOR

       STAIRS

       ELEVATOR

       RESTROOMS

                                                        VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA   21
Jane Doe
        @
                CAREER SERVICE
                Would you like to explore career opportunities with top statistical
                employers? The 2018 Career Service, located in Hall A of the
                Vancouver Convention Centre, will give you the opportunity to
                research job postings and contact employers. Access is for registered
                applicants and employers only and interviews are by appointment.

                To register, visit the main JSM registration area and ask to add the
                Career Service to your registration.

                CAREER SERVICE EMPLOYERS
                Executive Suite Employers

                Additional Employers
                                                                                Candidate Fees
                • East China Normal University   • National Security Agency
                                                                                ASA Student Member   $85
                • Exponent                       • School of Statistics,
                                                  Southwestern University       Student Nonmember    $130
                • Ford Motor Company
                                                  of Finance and Economics      ASA Member           $155
                • Jump Trading
                                                 • Two Sigma Vertex
                • Lawrence Livermore                                            Nonmember            $250
                                                  Pharmaceuticals
                 National Laboratory
                                                 • Westat
                • Mayo Clinic

                For a current list of employers, see www.amstat.org/careerservice.

22   JSM2018
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
All Professional Development (PD) courses are at the Vancouver
Convention Centre East Building. An additional fee is charged for
PD offerings. To add a course, go to the main registration desk in the
Vancouver Convention Centre West Building.

                   COURSE     TIME          ROOM           INSTRUCTOR(S)            TITLE

                   CE_01C     8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Master the Tidyverse: An Introduction to R
   *               (Two-day
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 1
                                                           Garrett Grolemund
                                                                                    for Data Science
                   course)

                              8:00 a.m. – East Meeting
                   CE_02C                                  Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel    Shiny Essentials
                              12:00 p.m. Room 11
SATURDAY JULY 28

                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Gang Li/Robert           Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and
                   CE_03C
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 8         Elashoff/Ning Li         Time-to-Event Data
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Bayesian Thinking: Fundamentals,
                   CE_04C                                  Jim Albert
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 12                                 Computation, and Multilevel Modeling
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Propensity Score Methods: Concepts
                   CE_05C                                  Wei Pan/Haiyan Bai
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 13                                 and Applications
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting
                   CE_06C                                  Charlotte Wickham        Advanced R
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 2/3
                              1:00 p.m. – East Meeting                              Introduction to the Design of Cluster
                   CE_07C                                  Lawrence Moulton
                              5:00 p.m.   Room 11                                   Randomized Trials

                   CE_01C     8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Master the Tidyverse: An Introduction to R
                   (Two-day                                Garrett Grolemund
                   course)    5:00 p.m.     Room 1                                  for Data Science

                                                                                    Statistical and Computational Methods and
                              8:00 a.m. – East Meeting     Curtis Huttenhower/
                   CE_08C                                                           Software for Microbiome and Metagenomics
                              12:00 p.m. Room 13           Hongzhe Li
                                                                                    and Applications
SUNDAY JULY 29

                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting
                   CE_09C                                  Frank Harrell            Regression Modeling Strategies
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 8
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Art and Practice of Regression Trees and
                   CE_10C                                  Wei-Yin Loh
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 12                                 Forests
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Peter Müller/Byron       Practical Considerations for Bayesian and
                   CE_11C
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 11        Jones/Frank Bretz        Frequentist Adaptive Clinical Trials
                              8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting
                   CE_12C                                  E. James Harner          Data Science Workflows Using R and Spark
                              5:00 p.m.     Room 2/3
                                                                                    Topics in Design of Computer Experiment:
                              1:00 p.m. – East Meeting
                   CE_13C                                  Dennis Lin               Recent Advances in Latin Hypercube and
                              5:00 p.m.   Room 13
                                                                                    Uniform Designs

                                                                                   VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA          23
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
                  COURSE    TIME          ROOM           INSTRUCTOR(S)            TITLE

                  CE_14C    8:00 a.m. – East Meeting     James Wagner             Adaptive Survey Design
                            12:00 p.m. Room 13
                            8:00 a.m. – East Meeting     Ludovic Trinquart/       Meta-Analysis for Biopharmaceutical and
                  CE_15C
                            12:00 p.m. Room 2/3          Michael LaValley         Public Health Research Using SAS
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Jason Roy/Michael        Introduction to Bayesian Nonparametric
                  CE_16C
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 1         Daniels                  Methods for Causal Inference
MONDAY JULY 30

                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   David Banks/Margaret     Nonparametric Regression and
                  CE_17C
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 11        Johnson                  Classification for Modern Data Scientists
                                                         Kenneth Lange/Hua
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Julia Meets Mendel: Algorithms and
                  CE_18C                                 Zhou/Janet Sinsheimer/
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 12                                 Software for Modern Genomic Data Analysis
                                                         Eric Sobel
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Pankaj Choudhary/        Analysis of Continuous and Categorical
                  CE_19C
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 8         Haikady Nagaraja         Method Comparison Data
                            1:00 p.m. – East Meeting     Daniel Heitjan/Gui-
                  CE_20C                                                          Prediction in Event-Based Clinical Trials
                            5:00 p.m.   Room 2/3         Shuang Ying
                                                         Christina Kendziorski/
                            1:00 p.m. – East Meeting     Rhonda Bacher/           Statistical Methods for Single-Cell RNA-Seq
                  CE_21C
                            5:00 p.m.   Room 13          Mingyao Li/Nancy         Analysis
                                                         Zhang

                            8:00 a.m. – East Meeting
                  CE_22C                                 Fang Chen                Practical Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling
                            12:00 p.m. Room 11
                            8:00 a.m. – East Meeting                              Health Care Analytics in the Presence of ‘Big
                  CE_23C                                 Evan Carey
                            12:00 p.m. Room 13                                    Data’
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting                            Statistical Machine Learning for Biomedical
                  CE_24C                                 Noah Simon
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 8                                  Data
TUESDAY JULY 31

                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Devan Mehrotra/Alex      Analysis of Clinical Trials: Theory and
                  CE_25C
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 2/3       Dmitrienko/Jeff Maca     Applications
                                                                                  Deep Learning, Prediction, and Validation:
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Tze Leung Lai/Hao Zou/
                  CE_26C                                                          Innovations in Statistical Modeling and
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 12        Ying Lu
                                                                                  Applications to Medical/Health Big Data
                            8:30 a.m. –   East Meeting   Alan Agresti/Maria
                  CE_27C                                                          Categorical Data Analysis
                            5:00 p.m.     Room 1         Kateri
                            1:00 p.m. – East Meeting
                  CE_28C                                 Rafael Irizarry          Data Science for Statisticians
                            5:00 p.m.   Room 11
                                                         Rebecca Andridge/
                            1:00 p.m. – East Meeting                              Applications of Hot Deck Imputation
                  CE_29C                                 Katherine Jenny
                            5:00 p.m.   Room 13                                   Methods to Survey Data
                                                         Thompson

24                JSM2018
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