Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO Issue 50: June 2019 - www.natowatch.org

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Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO Issue 50: June 2019 - www.natowatch.org
Issue 50: June 2019

Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO

                                  www.natowatch.org
Promoting a more transparent and accountable NATO Issue 50: June 2019 - www.natowatch.org
NATO Watch Observatory                                      In this edition:
No. 50 (January - May 2019)                                 NATO Watch Essay:
                                                            NATO’s new Military Strategy and Space
                                                            Policy: Why are parliamentarians and the
                                                            public being kept out of the loop?     3
Published by
NATO Watch                                                  News, Commentary & Reports:
Gairloch, Scotland                                           -   Arms Control & Disarmament: the
IV212DS                                                          INF Treaty                         6
                                                             -   Book Review                        8
Email:
                                                             -   Climate Change                     8
                                                             -   Collective Defence                 8
Editor: Dr. Ian Davis                                        -   Cyber Security, Information Warfare
                                                                 & Hybrid Threats                   9
Welcome to NATO Watch’s quarterly                            -   Defence Budgets & Procurement 10
Observatory: the only online publication                     -   Energy Security                  12
dedicated entirely to news and independent                   -   Enlargement & Partnerships       12
commentary on NATO policy-making and                             - Australia; Azerbaijan; Belarus; Bosnia
operational activities. The clips are drawn                      Herzegovina; Brazil; China-NATO relations;
from a wide range of subscriptions, feeds                        Colombia; Egypt; EU-NATO relations;
                                                                 Finland; Georgia; Israel; Jordan; Kuwait;
and alerts covering a substantial part of the
                                                                 Mediterranean Dialogue; New Zealand;
major English language newspapers and                            North Macedonia; Policy; Science for Peace
other periodicals worldwide.                                     and Security Programme; Serbia; Sweden;
                                                                 Tunisia; Ukraine; UN-NATO relations
NATO Watch                                                   -   Intelligence                   19
conducts independent monitoring and                          -   Maritime Security              19
analysis of NATO and aims to increase                        -   Military Exercises             19
transparency,    stimulate  parliamentary                    -   Missile Defence                20
engagement and broaden public awareness                      -   Munich Security Conference     21
and participation in a progressive reform                    -   NATO @ 70                      21
agenda within NATO.                                          -   NATO Defence Ministers Meeting 23
                                                             -   NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting 23
                                                             -   NATO Military Committee – new
                                                                 Military Strategy              23
                                                             -   NATO Parliamentary Assembly    24
                                                             -   NATO Summit                    24
                                                             -   Nuclear Weapons                24
                                                             -   Operations and Missions        26
                                                                 - Afghanistan; Kosovo; Libya
                                                             -   President Trump and NATO         28
                                                             -   Russia-NATO relations            28
                                                             -   Secretary General’s Annual
                                                                 Report                           30
                                                             -   Special Forces                   30
                                                             -   Transparency, Accountability and
                                                                 Good Governance                  31
Copyright © NATO Watch, 2019. Some rights
reserved.                                                    -   Women, Peace and Security        31
This publication is made available under a Creative         Security    News      from     NATO
Commons BY-NC-ND 3.0 licence, which allows copy
and distribution for non-profit use, provided the           Member States                      31
authors and NATO Watch are attributed properly and           - Albania; Belgium; Bulgaria; Canada;
the text is not altered in any way. All citations must be        Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia;
credited to NATO Watch and/or the original sources.
                                                                 France; Germany; Hungary; Iceland;
                                                                 Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Montenegro;
                                                                 Norway; Poland; Spain; Turkey; UK;
                                                                 USA
adapts. We continue to revise and review
NATO Watch Essay:                                 the threats we face, as allies. Today, our
                                                  Alliance faces enduring challenges from
NATO’s new Military Strategy and                  all strategic directions; state and non-
Space Policy: Why are                             state; military forces; and terrorist,
parliamentarians and the public                   cyber and hybrid. Against this
being kept out of the loop?                       background, the NATO Chiefs of Defence
                                                  decided in 2017 to task the Military
By Dr Ian Davis, NATO Watch                       Authorities to review our existing
On the 22 May 2019, the twenty-nine               strategy.
NATO Chiefs of Defence came together              To create a common understanding of
in Brussels to discuss and sign-off on            the threats and challenges was
NATO’s new Military Strategy. At a                developed, and through consensus, this
press conference on the 28 May,                   strategy was produced with each
following a meeting of the North                  member, each ally, being an equal
Atlantic Council with national security           partner. Therefore, we now have that
                                                  handrail to guide us and to enable us to
advisers, NATO Secretary General Jens
                                                  deliver our core business to defend
Stoltenberg said the alliance would               almost 1 billion people. This works
adopt its first space policy in June.             guides our other work and I would
Neither document is in the public                 particularly like to thank the nations,
domain.                                           the staff who have helped this come
                                                  together today. It brings coherence.
NATO’s new Military Strategy
                                                Peach was asked during the Q&A
According to the brief statement
                                                session with journalists after the
released by NATO, the new Military
                                                meeting whether the strategy would be
Strategy “marks an important step in
                                                published and if he could provide an
adapting     the  alliance   for   the
                                                outline as to its content. He replied:
increasingly     complex       security
challenges that NATO faces”. In his               We don’t intend to publish it, in
opening remarks Air Chief Marshal Sir             accordance with long-standing practice
Stuart Peach (UK Air Force), Chairman             within the alliance. And in terms of the
of the NATO Military Committee—the                outline, the content as you would expect
                                                  is a traditional military strategy, but in
senior military authority in the
                                                  very much a modern format. And we
alliance—said:                                    have worked on the document—and it is
    The     Military    Strategy     provides     a document, I can confirm that—but I
    overarching guidance, outlining how the       am not going to go into details as to its
    alliance effectively deters and defends       content.
    and helps shape our future plans. It will
                                                Some further details emerged when the
    be a handrail which guides our decision
    making process and provides coherence       Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff
    to our overall efforts. We cannot predict   Gen. Joseph Dunford addressed a
    the future, but this strategy and the       roundtable discussion at the Brookings
    strategic thinking that goes with it        Institution on the 29 May. Apparently,
    provided by you gives a level of guidance   the new Military Strategy is due to be
    to what we could do depending on the        approved by the respective defence
    circumstances presented to us. We’ll        ministries of the member states in the
    then give additional guidance on how to     coming weeks. “It is the first NATO
    go forward as this will become a living     military strategy in decades, … It clearly
    document.
                                                articulates the challenges that confront
In his closing press statement Peach            NATO [and] it provides the framework
said:                                           for the various plans that will be in
    We have, today, agreed a Military           place if deterrence fails”, he added.
    Strategy. This is the first time for many   While details of the new Military
    years, we have done so and it is part of    Strategy are still unknown, it seems
    NATO’s adaptation process. NATO

3
likely that the alliance is simply falling   While China is unlikely to feature so
in line with recent updates to US            prominently in the new NATO Military
military doctrine. Washington updated        Strategy, Russia undoubtedly will. Not
its National Security Strategy in 2017,      only has the traditional Russian military
National Defence Strategy (NDS) and          threat been actively espoused by senior
Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) in 2018,        NATO officials to justify a whole raft of
and Missile Defense Review in early          measures to enhance its deterrence
2019. All of these documents were            and defence posture in recent years,
published in full, with the exception of     the alliance has also been exploring
the US NDS, for which only an                ways of countering what it sees as
unclassified summary was released.           Moscow’s      covert     influence   and
NATO’s new strategy document is              destabilization operations. It is unclear
probably just a consolidation of US          to what extent the new NATO Military
military doctrine plus some window           Strategy will change the balance of the
dressing. However, since it is not           current mix of nuclear, conventional
publicly available it is impossible to       and missile defence capabilities that
assess (a) how closely it mirrors recent     make-up      the    collective   defence
US changes in military doctrine, and (b)     posture.
whether it diverges from the 2010
                                             With regard to nuclear weapons, for
Strategic     Concept—NATO’s        most
                                             example, the new US NPR sets out
recently agreed statement on core
                                             expanded scenarios for the possible
values, tasks and principles, the
                                             use of nuclear weapons against non-
evolving security environment and
                                             nuclear    threats,   including   cyber
strategic objectives for the next
                                             threats. It also identifies a plan to
decade.
                                             develop new ‘low-yield’ warheads for
Following the US lead?                       its    submarine-launched       ballistic
                                             missiles and new ground-launched
The new US NDS refocused on the
                                             cruise missiles. The US NPR contends
possibility of war with China and/or
                                             that this capability would strengthen
Russia, marking a shift from the last 15
                                             nuclear deterrence, while critics argue
years’ focus on fighting transnational
                                             it would lower the nuclear threshold
terrorist      groups.     “Great-power
                                             and increase the risk of nuclear war.
competition—not terrorism—is now the
primary focus of US national security”,      Although the NATO Secretary General
the then US Defense Secretary Jim            has said that the alliance has no
Mattis said in a speech unveiling the        intention to deploy new nuclear
new strategy in January last year.           missiles in Europe following the
Similarly, at a meeting of NATO foreign      collapse of the INF Treaty, there are
ministers in Washington in April that        plenty of US (and a few European)
marked the 70th anniversary of the           voices calling for NATO to deploy new
alliance, US Secretary of State Mike         nonstrategic and lower yield nuclear
Pompeo urged allies to work together         weapons or to adapt nuclear deterrence
to confront a wide variety of emerging       to play a larger role in NATO’s collective
threats from Russia and China. "We           defence.
must adapt our alliance to confront
                                             The timing of the announcement of a
emerging threats ... whether that's
                                             new NATO Space Policy also suggests
Russian      aggression,    uncontrolled
                                             that this is a reaction to US-led
migration, cyberattacks, threats to
                                             developments. At his May press
energy security, Chinese strategic
                                             conference, Stoltenberg said, "We are
competition, including technology and
                                             now also working on an overarching
5G ... [or] many other issues", Pompeo
                                             space policy, another first for NATO.
said.
                                             And next month, I expect NATO
                                             defence ministers will adopt our new

4
space policy". He added that NATO also       substantive and prior parliamentary
needed to strengthen the resilience of       discussion of key documents such as
its telecommunication networks, 5G,          these represents woefully inadequate
undersea cables and space assets.            oversight.
However, the United States was clearly       In the second decade of the twenty-first
first with its own ‘first’. In June 2018,    century, surely it should be a NATO-
President Trump announced that he            wide norm for any significant policy
had directed the Pentagon to establish       document, international treaty or
a Space Force, describing it as a sixth      agreement—that is, one that impinges
branch of the US military. It would be       on human rights and fundamental
the first time the Pentagon has stood        freedoms,      transfers     sovereignty,
up a new service since the Air Force         requires the passing of a law, or carries
received its independence after World        the possibility of the deployment of
War II. In August, Vice President Mike       armed force abroad—to always require
Pence outlined some of the concrete          consent     from     member         states’
steps needed to create the US Space          parliaments, thereby giving the people
Force, which is expected to be vaguely       a direct say in the external activities of
modelled on the US Special Operations        the state, including key developments
Command,                                                              within alliances.
bringing        in
                                                                         Parliaments
personnel from
                                                                    should have a
all    branches.
                                                                    role           in
There will also
                                                                    examining     all
be     a   Space
                                                                    decisions about
Development
                                                                    the negotiation
Agency         to
                                                                    of treaties and
streamline
                                                                         multilateral
hardware
                                                                            accords,
procurement
                                                                           including
and innovation.
                                                                      determination
Where is the                                                        of    objectives,
oversight?                                                               negotiating
                                                                    positions, the
Given        the
                                                                         parameters
importance of
                                             within which the national delegation
NATO’s new Military Strategy and Space
Policy—and their likely shaping by US        can operate and the final decision as to
military interests—both documents            whether to sign and ratify. This should
ought to be subjected to close scrutiny.     not be the exclusive reserve of defence
                                             ministries and their ministers. Without
Oversight mechanisms help to ensure
                                             such certainty of process, NATO policy
that the right questions are asked
                                             development lacks authority and
about strategy and the objectives of
                                             credibility.   At   a   minimum,       a
any military preparations before the
                                             parliamentary       mechanism         or
price becomes too high, both in terms
                                             committee should exist in each
of costly and unnecessary military
                                             member state to consider alliance
procurement and in destabilising
                                             policy documents, tabled treaties or
international relations. While there may
                                             international instruments.
be a case for allowing government
officials in defence ministries to
discuss finer points in private, not least
to enable consensus building around
some of the more contentious issues,
the lack of time set aside for

5
News, Commentary and                      US is unable to counter because it is
                                          bound by the INF Treaty.
Reports:
                                          In 2018, the US administration
                                          announced plans to develop a low-yield
Arms Control & Disarmament: the           warhead for the Trident D-5 submarine-
INF Treaty                                launched ballistic missile and a nuclear-
In February, the United States            armed, sea-launched cruise missile,
announced that it has started the         calling those options “important for the
process to withdraw from the              preservation of credible deterrence
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces         against regional aggression”. The
(INF) Treaty, unless Russia destroys a    Pentagon also could deploy a new
new class of medium-range missiles        ground-launched cruise missile or
that    US     officials  allege   are    larger intermediate-range missiles.
noncompliant. Critics warned it could     In response to the US decision, Russian
spark a dangerous new arms race with      President Vladimir Putin threatened to
Moscow and a return to the nuclear        aim new hypersonic missiles at the
tensions of the Cold War.                 United States if it deploys further
US-Russian discussions in Geneva in       missile systems to Europe. NATO
January failed to reach a compromise      Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
despite Moscow’s offer to allow the       announced that NATO is exploring
United States to inspect the disputed     ways to counter Russia’s violations of
missile. The US decision starts a six-    the treaty, while ruling out new
month countdown to formal treaty          deployment of land-based nuclear
withdrawal on 1 August 2019.              systems in Europe.
The decision had been expected—           Some NATO allies are uneasy about
President Trump warned in October         keeping US missiles capable of carrying
2018 that he would pull out if Russia     nuclear warheads on their territory,
didn’t comply—and is consistent with      although Poland may be willing to host
his ‘America First’ strategy, which has   US missiles.
already seen the United States pull out   In March, Russia also suspended its
of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris    participation in the INF Treaty “until the
climate accord.                           US ends its violations of the treaty or
The INF Treaty banned all missiles with   until it terminates”.
a range between 500 and 5,500
                                          INF treaty can be saved, political will
kilometres. It protected the European     needed for that, NATO chief says, TASS, 26
continent from those weapons, and         May 2019
also banned US Pershing cruise
missiles, which had been deployed by      John Feffer, A Farewell to Arms Control?
                                          Foreign Policy in Focus, 1 May 2019
the US and Germany. Since 2014, the
United States has accused Russia of       Ulrich Kühn, The End of Conventional Arms
violating the treaty, and Washington      Control and the Role of US Congress,
imposed     sanctions   intended     to   Journal    for    Peace    and    Nuclear
pressure Russia into compliance.          Disarmament, 2019
Russia denied violating the treaty but    Bruno Hellendorff, Europe in a multipolar
accused Washington of doing so with a     missile world – Why the EU and NATO
missile defence system deployed in        should not try to salvage the INF Treaty,
Europe.                                   Egmont Paper 106, March 2019

US officials have also expressed          Ulrich Kühn, Between a rock and a hard
                                          place: Europe in a post-INF world, The
concern that China, anon-signatory to
                                          Nonproliferation Review 26, no. 1-2, 4 April
the treaty, is deploying short- and       2019
medium-range missiles in Asia that the

6
NATO Chief Urges Russia To Comply With         to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,
INF Treaty, Radio Free Europe/ Radio           Press Release, 8 February 2019
Liberty, 1 March 2019
                                               Lincoln Pigman, To Understand the INF
As a Key Arms-Control Treaty Is Set to Die,    Treaty’s Demise, Look to the US Republican
Russia Threatens to Target U.S. with New       Party, RUSI Commentary, 8 February 2019
Nukes, Popular Mechanics, 21 February
                                               Gustav Gressel, Russia, Germany, and the
2019
                                               INF: Will Berlin break its silence? ECFR, 6
Piotr Buras, State of disunion: Europe,        February 2019
NATO, and disintegrating arms control,
                                               Russia plans land-based intermediate
ECRF Commentary, 28 February 2019
                                               missiles in two years, The Guardian, 5
John Mecklin, How and why the US and           February 2019
Russia should save the INF, Bulletin of the
                                               Russia blames NATO for dismantling INF
Atomic Scientists, 19 February 2019
                                               due to plans to deploy launchers to Poland,
Simon Lunn and Nicholas Williams, The          TASS, 4 February 2019
Demise of the INF Treaty: What are the
                                               Frank Sauer, Artificial Intelligence in the
consequences for NATO? ELN Policy Brief,
                                               Armed Forces: On the need for regulation
February 2019
                                               regarding autonomy in weapon systems,
No movement in Russian missile talks:          German Federal Academy for Security
NATO chief, France 24, 15 February 2019        Policy, Security Policy Working Paper No.
                                               26/2018
The Western press has often treated the        Rebecca Johnson, Who gains from Trump
Russian claim that US missile defense          trashing the INF Treaty - Putinand Lockheed
installations    have     an   offensive       Martin!, openDemocray, 3 February 2019
capability as rhetorical obfuscation. But
                                               Russia follows US in suspending nuclear
publicly available information makes it        deal, The Guardian , 2 February 2019
clear that the US Aegis-based systems
in Eastern Europe, if equipped with            Donald Trump confirms US withdrawal
cruise missiles, would indeed violate          from INF nuclear treaty, The Guardian, 1
                                               February 2019
the INF.
                                               Trump’s ‘terrible’ withdrawal from nuke
Must Read: Theodore Postol, Russia may
                                               treaty poses three risks to the world:
have violated the INF Treaty. Here’s how the
                                               Former NATO chief, Raw Story, 1 February
United States appears to have done the
                                               2019
same, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 14
February 2019                                  Timmon Wallis, Why We All Need the INF
                                               Treaty, NuclearBan.US, 1 February 2019
NATO’s rhetoric about no new nuclear           Susi Snyder, INF Suspension: Who benefits?
missiles in Europe to counter Russia is        PAX, 1 February 2019
unclear, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 14
February 2019                                  NATO Chief Urges Russia to Comply with
                                               Missile Pact, Military.com, 31 January 2019
NATO in search of options to prepare for
post-INF world, EuroActiv, 14 February         NATO: Russia's new missile lowers bar for
2019                                           the use of nuclear arms, CNBC, 24 January
                                               2019
NATO is getting ready for a future where
Russia has a lot more missiles after Trump     US to begin nuclear treaty pullout next
ditched a landmark treaty, Business Insider,   month after Russia missile talks fail, The
13 February 2019                               Guardian, 16 January 2019
Must Read: Reducing the Risks of               NATO Chief: February Deadline ‘Last
Conventional Deterrence in Europe Arms         Chance’ for Russia to Comply With INF
Control in the NATO-Russia Contact Zones,      Treaty, Sputnik, 4 January 2019
OSCE Network, 2018
The United States Remains in Compliance
with the INF Treaty, United States Mission

7
Book Review                                     sustain a stable maritime-security
                                                environment in European waters and
Dagomar Degroot, Seeking solutions to
Cold War divisions, in the mid-20th century     beyond, to enable the free flow of
NATO        embraced     environmentalism,      international maritime trade, and to
sciencemag, 1 January 2019: Reviewed            protect global maritime infrastructure.
‘Greening the Alliance: The Diplomacy of        The IISS assessed that European NATO
NATO's       Science  and     Environmental     members would have to invest between
Initiatives’, Simone Turchetti, University of   US$94 billion and US$110bn to fill the
Chicago Press, 2018 - the first book to         capability gaps generated by this
explain the surprising rise, repeated           scenario.
revision, and possible decline of NATO’s
environmental research programme.               The second scenario dealt with the
                                                defence of European NATO territory
                                                against a state-level military attack. In
Climate Change                                  this scenario, tensions between Russia
Diplomats, military officers and experts        and NATO members Lithuania and
gathered at the Ministry of Foreign             Poland escalate into war after the US
Affairs in the Czech Republic in May to         has left NATO. This war results in the
discuss energy security and future              Russian occupation of Lithuania and
challenges     facing    NATO.     While        some Polish territory Invoking Article V,
discussing what the alliance may be up          the European members of NATO take
against 70 years from now, some                 measures to deter further Russian
argued that the impacts of climate              aggression, and also prepare and
change are likely to be the main threat.        assemble forces for a military operation
                                                to restore Polish and Lithuanian
NATO’s Biggest Long-Term Future Threat Is
Climate Change, Suggests Expert. Radio
                                                government       control    over    their
Praha, 21 May 2019                              territories. The IISS assesses that
                                                European NATO members would have
                                                to invest between US$288bn and
Collective Defence                              US$357bn to fill the capability gaps
The International Institute for Strategic       generated by this scenario. These
Studies (IISS) published research in            investments would establish a NATO
April on what European defence would            Europe force level that would likely
look if the United States left NATO and         allow it to prevail in a limited regional
did not contribute militarily. The 50-          war in Europe against a peer adversary.
page study applies scenario analysis to         If the funding to meet shortfalls were
generate force requirements and                 available, the IISS assesses that the
assesses the ability of NATO’s                  recapitalisation across the military
European member states to meet these            domains would take up to 20 years,
requirements.                                   with some significant progress around
The study explored two scenarios for            the ten- and 15-year marks. The
the development of events in the                reasons for this are limited production
absence of financial support from the           capacity; the time it takes to decide on
United States. The first scenario looked        and then produce equipment and
at the protection of the global sea lines       weapons; recruitment and training
of    communication       (SLOCs)     and       demands; and the time it takes for new
assumed that the United States had              units to reach an operational capability.
withdrawn from NATO and also
                                                Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, Dr Lucie Béraud-
abandoned      its    global    maritime
                                                Sudreau, Henry Boyd, Nick Childs and Dr
presence and protection, not just for its       Bastian Giegerich, Defending Europe:
own national interest but also as an            scenario-based capability requirements for
international public good. It thus falls        NATO’s European members, IISS, April
to European countries to achieve and            2019

8
Murielle Delaporte, NATO’s Strength: A        cyber capabilities or offensive cyber
Burden-sharing Success Story, Breaking        into alliance operations and missions”,
Defense, 20 March 2019                        he said.
Can Kasapoğlu, Why and How NATO Should        In January, Facebook deleted a number
Adapt to a New Mediterranean Security
                                              of pages on its platform that were
Environment, SWP Comment 2019/C 15,
March 2019
                                              operated by Russian news agency
                                              Sputnik and promoted anti-NATO
Madeleine    Moon,      NATO's  National      sentiment     in    eastern    European
Resilience Obligations, RUSI Commentary,      countries. In February, US Secretary of
15 March 2019
                                              State Mike Pompeo warned central
Wolf-Diether Roepke and Hasit Thankey,        European      states    against    using
Resilience: the first line of defence, NATO   equipment from Chinese telecom giant
Review, 27 February 2019                      Huawei, saying it could threaten US
Nato allies offer contributions for Four      cooperation in those countries.
Thirties   Readiness    Initiative, Army
                                              Also in February, new research
Technology, 18 February 2019
                                              concluded that social media could be
Paul Taylor, Jan Techau, Julian Lindley-      used to not only find and target NATO
French, Ulrike Franke, Ben Hodges, Paul       forces, but also manipulate them.
Cornish, Elisabeth Braw, Claudia Major,       Researchers with NATO's Strategic
Andrew Michta, Andreas Wittkowsky,
                                              Communications Center of Excellence
Stephen Szabo, Anna Wieslander Judy Asks:
                                              used open source data, primarily social
Is NATO Deterrence a Paper Tiger? Carnegie
Europe, 31 January 2019                       media, to successfully identify 150
                                              soldiers, locate multiple battalions,
Jonathan Hill, NATO – ready for anything?     track troop movements, and even
NATO Review, 24 January 2019                  convince service members to leave
Sara Bjerg Moller, Drawing the Line on U.S.   their posts and engage in other
Reassurance to Eastern Europe, Lawfare, 6     “undesirable behaviour” during a
January 2019                                  military exercise.
                                              In April, a French team of security
Cyber Security, Information                   experts emerged the winner of a NATO-
Warfare & Hybrid Threats                      backed      “live-fire”     cybersecurity
While NATO does not have its own              exercise, Locked Shields, that involved
cyber weapons, the alliance established       nearly 1,200 cybersecurity experts
an operations centre in August 2018 at        competing in a red team-blue team
its military hub in Mons, Belgium.            engagement to defend a fictional
Several member states have since              country. The annual event is the world’s
offered their cyber capabilities. The         largest exercise of its kind.
new NATO cyber operations centre              The Tallinn-based NATO Cooperative
(CYOC) is expected to be fully staffed        Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence
by 2023 and able to mount its own             launched an interactive web-based
cyber attacks.                                resource for legal professionals and
Although the alliance is still grappling      students in May, called the Cyber Law
with ground rules for doing so, it            Toolkit. The toolkit was launched at the
appears to be adopting a tough                11th Annual Conference on Cyber
posture. In May, Secretary General Jens       Conflict—or CyCon 2019—in Tallinn,
Stoltenberg told attendees at the Cyber       Estonia, on 29 May.
Defence Pledge conference in London,          An interactive cyber law toolkit launched in
“We are not limited to respond in             Tallinn, Estonian World, 30 May 2019
cyberspace when we are attacked in            NATO to integrate offensive cyber
cyberspace”. NATO members have                capabilities of individual members, Fifth
already “agreed to integrate national         Domain, 29 May 2019

9
National Security Advisers meet at NATO         New publication from NATO's Rīga
Headquarters, NATO News Release, 29 May         StratCom center on cyber threats, LSM, 18
2019                                            February 2019
Patrick Tucker, NATO Getting More               Christopher Porter and Klara Jordan, Don’t
Aggressive on Offensive Cyber, Defense          Let Cyber Attribution Debates Tear Apart
One, 24 May 2019                                the NATO Alliance, Lawfare, 14 February
                                                2019
Secretary General gives keynote speech on
NATO’s adaptation to cyber threats, NATO        Inside NATO's cyber defence centre, Sky
News Release, 23 May 2019                       News, 12 February 2019
Ethan Williamson, NATO’s Expanding Role         New NATO hub will gather the Alliance's
in Cybersecurity, Charged Affairs, 13 May       cyber defenders, NATO News Release, 12
2019                                            February 2019
Joel Rogers de Waal, The West Should            Don Lewis, What is NATO really doing in
Weaponise Embarrassment in the New              Cyberspace? War on The Rocks, 4 February
Information Wars, RUSI Commentary, 26           2019
April 2019
                                                Responding    to   Cognitive   Security
France    Wins     NATO’s   “Live    Fire”      Challenges, NATO Stratcom COE, January
Cybersecurity Exercise, Computer Business       2019
Review, 17 April 2019
                                                NATO battles for a place on the emoji
NATO     launches    cyber-defense  drill       keyboard, The National, 29 January 2019
simulating elections under attack, Fifth
                                                NATO invests $422K toward          a     new
Domain, 8 April 2019
                                                international     cybersecurity        team,
NATO team takes part in one of the world’s      Concordia, 23 January 2019
most challenging cyber exercises, NATO
                                                Facebook takes down anti-NATO pages
News Release, 8 April 2019
                                                linked to Russia, The Hill, 17 January 2019
Matej Tonin (Slovenia) Rapporteur, Artificial
Intelligence: Implications for NATO’S
Armed Forces, Draft Report, NATO                Defence Budgets, Procurement
Parliamentary Assembly, Science and             and Burden Sharing
Technology Committee, Sub-Committee on
Technology Trends and Security, 5 April         The     burden-sharing   debate    that
2019                                            dominated the NATO Summit in July
                                                2018 (see NATO Watch Observatory No.
Chris Demchak, We Need a NATO/EU for            48) continued to be a key background
Cyber Defense, Defense One, 24 March
2019
                                                issue in the first half of 2019. The
                                                annual publication by the International
NATO Takes Huawei Security Concerns             Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS),
Seriously: Stoltenberg, Security Week, 15       Military Balance, showed that NATO's
March 2019
                                                27 European countries fell short of the
NATO counters cyber threats with network        two per cent target by $102 billion in
collaboration, Shepherd Media, 25 February      2018, adding that European NATO
2019                                            members would "collectively have had
Researchers found and tracked NATO              to increase their spending by 38 per
troops and tricked them into disobeying         cent" to hit the two percent target in
orders for just $60, Task and Purpose, 19       2018.
February 2019
                                                In May, the NATO Communications and
Matt Field, NATO researchers used social        Information (NCI) Agency announced
media to learn details of a military exercise   that it is planning to issue bids for or
and manipulate troops. It wasn’t very hard      award contracts totalling 1.4 billion
to do, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
                                                Euros in the next 18 months, as
19 February 2019
                                                follows:

10
Satellite communications (189 million         NATO edges towards Trump's spending
EUR) transmission services for space,         demands, Germany lags, Reuters, 14 March
ground and control resources to               2019
support NATO operations from 2020 to          NATO launches innovation challenge to
2034;                                         inventors and entrepreneurs, NATO News
                                              Release, 12 March 2019
Cyber security (129 million EUR) for
refreshing and optimizing the security        After NATO Funding Success, Trump Eyes
technology         for        NATO’s          More Defense Money from Allies, CBN
communications     and    information         News, 12 March 2019
systems;                                      NATO Selects BlackBerry's Encrypted Voice
                                              Technology to Secure its Calls, PR
Deployable Communications and                 Newswire, 12 March 2019
Information Systems (153.2 million
EUR);                                         Timo Kivimäki, Power, contribution and
                                              dependence in NATO burden sharing,
Nuclear Command and Control                   European Security, Vol. 28 No.1, 2019,
Services (15-to-20 million EUR) to            pp.66-84
develop software and procure IT               Steinar Brandslet, Are European NATO
equipment, among other things;                states freeloading? Science Nordic, 10
Chemical, Biological, Radiological            March 2019
and Nuclear (CBRN) functional                 Industry conference brings business
services (10 million EUR) to develop          leaders together to learn about NATO
software, replace certain ageing tools        funding    opportunities, NATO  News
and support command and control of            Release, 21 February 2019
CBRN assets; and                              Cybèle Greenberg, Rethink 2%: NATO
Joint Intelligence, Surveillance and          ‘Defense Spending’ Should Favor Cyber,
                                              Defense One, 21 February 2019
Reconnaissance (17 million EUR) to
provide      additional   intelligence        Disputes over defence budgets will
collecting and sharing capabilities to        continue to divide NATO, The Economist,
NATO Commands.                                15 February 2019
                                              Europeans $100 billion short of NATO
NATO Agency plans for 1.4 billion EUR in      spending pledge: study, AFP, 15 February
upcoming business opportunities, NCI          2019
Agency News Release, 20 May 2019
                                              Jeremy Shapiro, America the Mercenary:
US and NATO Radios Can't Talk to Each         Trump’s plan to bill NATO, ECFR, 12
Other. The Air Force Wants to Change That,    February 2019
Military.com, 26 April 2019
                                              NATO to receive NASMDEF facility for soft-
NATO helps Allies speed up sharing of         kill countermeasures assessment, Jane’s
weapons, NATO News Release, 27 March          Navy International, 4 February 2019
2019
                                              Allies receive new land munitions through
Max Bergmann, To strengthen NATO,             NATO project, NATO News Release, 31
Congress must help end its reliance on        January 2019
Russian equipment, Defense One, 26 March
2019                                          NATO secures additional SALIS surge
                                              capability with Antonov, Janes Defence
NATO to receive first Northrop surveillance   Weekly, 14 January 2019
drone, years late, Reuters, 18 March 2019
                                              Johannes Blum and Niklas Potrafke, Does a
Alliance unity 'more important than ever,'    Change     of    Government      Influence
NATO chief says as defense spending rises,    Compliance with International Agreements?
Stars and Stripes, 14 March 2019              Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two
NATO Allies Like Germany Risk Another         Percent Target, Defence and Peace
Spending Fight With Trump, Bloomberg, 14      Economics, 2019
March 2019

11
NATO extends Antonov’s SALIS contract,        Azerbaijan
Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7 January 2019
                                              Azerbaijan joined the North Atlantic
                                              Cooperation Council in 1992. This
Energy Security                               forum for dialogue was succeeded in
According to the 2018 Brussels Summit         1997 by the Euro-Atlantic Partnership
Declaration, energy security plays an         Council. Bilateral cooperation began
important role in NATO’s common               when Azerbaijan joined the Partnership
security. A stable and reliable energy        for Peace programme in 1994.
supply     increases    the     alliance’s    Azerbaijan has supported several
resilience    against    political     and    NATO-led peace-support operations.
economic pressure (para 76). While            Ilgar Gurbanov, Azerbaijan and NATO Mark
acknowledging      these    issues      are   25 Years of Partnership, Eurasia Daily
primarily the responsibility of national      Monitor Volume 16, Issue 71, 15 May 2019
authorities, NATO “will continue regular
                                              25 years of NATO - Azerbaijan partnership:
allied consultations on issues related to     Director General of NATO’s International
energy security” and “refine NATO’s           Military Staff visits Azerbaijan, NATO News
role in energy security in accordance         Release, 23 April 2019
with    established    principles      and
guidelines, and continue to develop           Belarus
NATO’s capacity to support national
authorities    in   protecting     critical   Belarusian-NATO relations began in
infrastructure”.                              1992, when the country joined the
                                              North Atlantic Cooperation Council,
John Bowlus, Energy Conjoins NATO, 70
                                              transformed into the Euro-Atlantic
Years Later, Energy Reporters, 11 April
2019                                          Partnership Council in 1997. In 1995,
                                              Belarus joined NATO’s Partnership for
NATO ENSEC COE and JRC held the main          Peace (PfP) programme. The first
planning conference for the flagship          Individual Partnership Programme with
Tabletop exercise Coherent Resilience
                                              Belarus was endorsed by the NATO
2019, NATO Energy Security Centre of
Excellence, 5 April 2019                      Council in July 1997. Since then, the
                                              number of annual joint activities the
Lukas Trakimavičius, NATO's Achilles' Heel:   Programme has increased more than
Power Grids, Real Clear Defense, 9 January    six-fold.
2019
                                              Arseny Sivitsky, Not an Enemy: Belarus
                                              Seeks Warmer Relations With NATO, Eurasia
Enlargement & Partnerships                    Daily Monitor Volume: 16 Issue: 40, 12
                                              March 2019
Australia
NATO and Australia are strengthening          Bosnia Herzegovina
relations, building on dialogue and           Bosnia and Herzegovina has been a
cooperation that have been developing         NATO partner, through the NATO
since 2005. In a joint political              Partnership for Peace programme,
declaration in June 2012, NATO and            since 2006.
Australia signalled their commitment to
strengthen cooperation, and since             Admiral Foggo in Sarajevo: NATO
February 2013, work is being taken            committed to a strong partnership with
forward     through      an   Individual      BiH, European Western Balkans, 7 May 2019
Partnership       and       Cooperation       NATO and Bosnia and Herzegovina sign
Programme.                                    agreement on protection of classified
                                              information, NATO News Release, 12 March
Graeme Dobell, NATO and ANZUS as              2019
contrasting cousins, The Strategist, 29
April 2019

12
Director General of the NATO International      Colombia
Military Staff Discusses Regional Stability
with Bosnian Officials, NATO News Release,      In May 2018 Colombia became the
27 February 2019                                latest NATO ‘partner across the globe’.
Sean Maguire and Ryan Scherba, The Bosnia       Colombia’s demining centre joins NATO
Boondoggle: This Is Why Sarajevo Can't Join     network, NATO News Release, 18 March
NATO, The National Interest, 13 January         2019
2019
                                                NATO Revises Defense Codification System
                                                in Colombia, Dialogo-Americas, 4 January
Brazil
                                                2019
During a press conference in March with
the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro,        Egypt
President Trump apparently suggested
making the South American nation a              Egypt engages with NATO through the
member of NATO. “I also intend to               Mediterranean Dialogue (see below).
designate Brazil as a major non-NATO ally
or even possibly, if you start thinking about   Egyptian Journalists visit NATO HQ, NATO
it, maybe a NATO ally,” he said. However,       News Release, 8 April 2019
this remains an extremely unlikely              Young Egyptian Diplomats visit NATO HQ,
prospect.                                       NATO News Release, 22 February 2019
Brazil Isn’t Ready for Trump’s Invitation to    EU-NATO Relations
NATO, Bloomberg, 23 March 2019
                                                Following the signature of the Joint
China-NATO relations                            Declaration on NATO-EU cooperation in
                                                Warsaw in July 2016, NATO and the EU
NATO has maintained a dialogue with
                                                have been discussing how to expand
countries that are not part of its
                                                their joint work, including by bringing
partnership frameworks, on an ad-hoc
                                                more coherence in their respective
basis, since the 1990s. One such
                                                defence      capability    development
country is China. While there was no
                                                priorities and output. The European
mention of China in the 2018 Brussels
                                                Council Conclusions of June 2018
Summit Declaration, the 2018 US
                                                called for further deepening of NATO-
National Defense Strategy cites China
                                                EU cooperation. And in July 2018 a new
as a strategic competitor.
                                                Brussels Joint Declaration was signed
The Trump administration continues to           by the NATO Secretary General, the
push NATO to address potential threats          President of the European Council, and
from China in its day-to-day work in            the President of the European
Brussels, as part of a shift in US              Commission.
priorities away from fighting Islamist
terrorists and towards a so-called era of       NATO and the EU signed a further
great power competition.                        agreement on 10 December 2018 to
                                                cooperate     in    promoting     good
David A. Andelman, NATO countries need          governance in the defence and security
to stop China from winning the 5G race,         sector. As part of this agreement, the
CNN, 15 April 2019                              EU will contribute 2 million EUR to the
Kadri Kaska, Henrik Beckvard and Tomáš          NATO Building Integrity Trust Fund for
Minárik, Huawei, 5G and China as a Security     2019-2022.
Threat, The NATO Cooperative Cyber
Defence Centre of Excellence, 2019              NATO, EU military brass duck the
                                                transatlantic bullets flying over PESCO and
Erik Brattberg, Time for NATO to Talk           the EDF, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 24 May
About China, Carnegie Europe, 25 March          2019
2019
                                                NATO and EU discuss defence against
Robbie Gramer, Trump Wants NATO’s Eyes          hybrid warfare, NATO News Release, 14
on China, Foreign Policy, 20 March 2019         March 2019

13
Jo   Coelmont,       European      Strategic   per cent. 53 per cent of NATO
Autonomy: which military level of ambition?    supporters in the April poll believed
Egmont Security Policy Brief, No.109, March    that the alliance would help Georgia
2019                                           preserve its security and 27 per cent
Elie Perot, The art of commitments: NATO,      said joining NATO would lead to
the EU, and the interplay between law and      restoration of the country’s territorial
politics within Europe’s collective defence    integrity. The poll also found that
architecture, European Security, Vol. 28       Russian military aggression remains
No.1, 2019, pp. 40-65                          the top security concern of Georgians
David   Herszenhorn,     Europe’s   NATO       (31 per cent), followed by fear of an
problem, Politico, 14 February 2019            occupation of South Ossetia and
In Romania, Secretary General praises          Abkhazia (11 per cent), Russian
deepening NATO-EU cooperation, NATO            propaganda (10 per cent) and terrorism
News Release, 30 January 2019                  (four per cent).
Fabrice Pothier, A European army: can the      Georgia: 77% support accession to EU, 74%
dream become a reality? IISS Comment, 7        – to NATO, Jam News, 21 May 2019
January 2019
                                               Neil Hauer, The West Takes NATO for
Sven Biscop, Fighting for Europe: European     Granted. One Country Still Wants In, The
Strategic Autonomy and the Use of Force,       Atlantic, 3 April 2019
Egmont Paper 103, January 2019
                                               NATO Allied Land Command signs letter of
Finland                                        cooperation with Georgia Defence Forces,
                                               DVIDS, 31 March 2019
Finland joined NATO’s Partnership for
                                               NATO Military Committee visit Georgia in
Peace in 1994 and became a member              show of continued support, NATO News
of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council       Release, 29 March 2019
in 1997. Finland is one of NATO’s most
active partners and has contributed to         NATO agreed Georgia would join. Why
                                               hasn’t it happened? PRI, 27 March 2019
NATO-led operations and missions in
the Balkans and Afghanistan. It is one         NATO’s Stoltenberg says Georgia is still on
of five countries that has enhanced            track to eventually join the alliance, New
opportunities    for     dialogue   and        Europe, 27 March 2019
cooperation with NATO.                         Secretary General visits NATO-Georgia
                                               exercise, NATO News Release, 25 March
Pauli Järvenpää, Finland and NATO: So          2019
Close, Yet So Far, EESTI – Estonia, 22 April
2019                                           Joint press conference with NATO Secretary
                                               General Jens Stoltenberg and the Prime
Georgia                                        Minister of Georgia, Mamuka Bakhtadze, 24
                                               March 2019
A 2008 Bucharest Summit Declaration
                                               Georgian    defence   minister  attends
promised eventual NATO membership
                                               multinational   workshop     on    Non-
for Georgia – a position reiterated at         Commissioned Officers, NATO News
several NATO summits since, and most           Release, 25 March 2019
recently in July 2018.
                                               NATO countries to begin military exercises
According to an opinion poll conducted         in Georgia, AA.com, 11 March 2019
in April by the National Democratic
                                               NATO and Georgian parliamentarians
Institute, 77 per cent of Georgians            discuss security in the Black Sea, Georgia’s
would support their country joining the        NATO integration, NATO PA News Release,
EU while 74 per cent would support             22 February 2019
NATO membership – a slight increase
                                               Zurabishvili Says Georgia is Ready for
compared with a similar poll in January,
                                               Integration into NATO, Georgia Today, 24
when support for the EU and NATO               January 2019
were surveyed at 72 per cent and 64

14
Secretary General welcomes President of        Mediterranean Dialogue
Georgia to NATO, NATO News Release, 23
January 2019                                   NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue (MD)
                                               was initiated in 1994 by the North
Israel                                         Atlantic Council and currently involves
                                               seven non-NATO countries in the
Israel has been a member of NATO’s             region: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan,
Mediterranean Dialogue since it was            Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. The
initiated in 1994 and is developing            MD aims to contribute to regional
closer cooperation with the alliance,          security and stability, achieve better
including maritime partnerships.               mutual understanding.
IDF Deputy Chief of Staff returns from         NATO      Secretary   General    Jens
NATO conference, Jerusalem Post, 24 May        Stoltenberg, with the 29 Permanent
2019                                           Representatives of the North Atlantic
Michael Sieveking, NATO and Israel are         Council marked the 25th anniversary of
right to deepen ties, New Europe, 23 May       the Mediterranean Dialogue on 6 May
2019                                           2019 in Ankara, Turkey. They were
IDF Deputy Chief of Staff to take part in      joined by the Ambassador of North
NATO     Military  Committee     Meeting,      Macedonia and senior diplomats of the
Jerusalem Post, 20 May 2019                    seven nations participating in the
Abbas: I Agreed to U.S.-led NATO force in      partnership forum.
‘Palestine’, Jerusalem Post, 24 March 2019     NATO     marks   25th  anniversary of
NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose             Mediterranean Dialogue, NATO News
Gottemoeller visits Israel, NATO News          Release, 6 May 2019
Release, 21 January 2019                       NATO and the Kingdom of Morocco co-
                                               organize a public diplomacy seminar
Jordan                                         celebrating the 25th anniversary of the
NATO supports Jordan in the areas of           Mediterranean Dialogue, NATO News
cyber defence, border security and             Release, 5 February 2019
counter improvised explosive devices
                                               New Zealand
(C-IED). In February 2018, NATO
launched a Defence Capacity Building           NATO and New Zealand have been
Project to enhance Jordan’s capacity in        engaged in dialogue and cooperation
national     resilience  and     crisis        since 2001. New Zealand is one of a
management.                                    range of countries beyond the Euro-
                                               Atlantic area—often referred to as
NATO and United Nations working together       “partners across the globe”—with
to strengthen Jordan’s security and defence
                                               which NATO is developing relations.
capacity against terrorist threats, NATO
News Release, 6 March 2019                     Since 2012 work has been taken
                                               forward     through  an    Individual
Kuwait                                         Partnership      and    Cooperation
                                               Programme.
Kuwait is a member of NATO's Istanbul
Cooperation Initiative and hosts the           NATO seeks NZ support for new Iraq
NATO-ICI Regional Center, which was            training programme, Radio NZ, 26 January
inaugurated in Kuwait City in 2017. In         2019
November 2018, Kuwait inaugurated              Secretary General: NATO and New Zealand
the offices of its first ever diplomatic       are close partners, NATO News Release, 25
mission to NATO.                               January 2019

Young Kuwaiti Diplomats share views with       North Macedonia
NATO officials during a recent visit at NATO
Headquarters, NATO News Release, 12            Macedonia is set to join NATO as the
March 2019                                     alliance’s 30th member after changing

15
its name to the Republic of North             Ausrine Armonaite (Lithuania) Rapporteur,
Macedonia. Agreement on the name              NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Economics
change was reached with Greece in             and Security Committee (ESC), Sub-
2018. The name dispute between                Committee on Transition and Development
                                              (ESCTD), The Republic of North Macedonia:
Skopje and Athens dates back to 1991,
                                              Political Change, NATO Accession and
when Macedonia peacefully broke away          Economic Transition, Draft Report, 8 April
from      Yugoslavia,     declaring   its     2019
independence under the name Republic
of Macedonia. Greece had objected to          After Prespa: Could the North Macedonia
                                              name     agreement   fall  apart? ECFR
the name Macedonia, saying it implied
                                              Commentary, 28 March 2019
territorial claims on the northern Greek
region with the same name. Greece had         NATO Secretary General welcomes the
cited the dispute to veto Macedonia's         Prime Minister Zoran Zaev of North
bid to join both NATO and the EU.             Macedonia, NATO News Release, 20 March
                                              2019
On 25 January, Greece’s parliament
                                              Leaders of the Republic of North Macedonia
approved the change and in February           see NATO accession as key to regional
NATO signed an accession agreement            stabilisation and domestic reform, NATO
with North Macedonia. Each NATO               PA News Release, 18 March 2019
member state now has to ratify the
                                              Todd   Carney,    What    Does   North
accession protocol—five have done so
                                              Macedonia’s Name Change Have to Do with
to date (Albania, Bulgaria, Greece,           NATO? Lawfare, 8 March 2019
Montenegro and Slovenia).
                                              Gil Barndollar, Macedonia is set to join
In May, in a presidential runoff, voters      NATO — an alliance that can’t fight,
in    North   Macedonia     elected    a      Defense News, 13 February 2019
government-backed candidate who
                                              Macedonia officially changes its name to
plans to bring the country into NATO          North Macedonia, The Guardian, 12
under its new name over a rival who           February 2019
had vowed to challenge the name
change if elected. Stevo Pendarovski, a       Maxim Samorukov, Macedonia Joining
                                              NATO Is a Self-Inflicted Defeat for Russia,
joint candidate of the governing Social
                                              Moscow Times, 10 February 2019
Democrats and 30 smaller parties,
received about 52 per cent of the vote,       Greece approves protocol for 'North
compared with about 45 per cent for           Macedonia' to join NATO with 153 votes,
his opponent, Gordana Siljanovska             Ekathemerini, 8 February 2019
Davkova.                                      Leonid Bershidsky, Trump Doesn’t Need
                                              North Macedonia in NATO, Bloomberg, 7
Maxim Samorukov, Double or quits: A           February 2019
Russian approach to North Macedonia and
NATO, European Leadership Network, 14         Nato to add Macedonia despite Putin
May 2019                                      warning, EU Observer, 7 February 2019

North Macedonia's pro-Western candidate       Jonathan Katz, Evelyn Farkas and Zhikica
wins presidential vote, Reuters, 5 May 2019   Pagovski,    The      Agreement     Over
                                              Macedonia’s Name Is a Glimmer of Hope in
Supporter of North Macedonia Name             Europe, GMF (Blog), 6 February 2019
Change Wins Presidency, New York Times,
5 May 2019                                    Macedonia    signs    Nato     accession
                                              agreement, BBC News, 6 February 2019
Renamed North Macedonia Revisits Row
That Opened NATO Path, Bloomberg, 5 May       NATO Allies sign Accession Protocol for the
2019                                          future Republic of North Macedonia, NATO
                                              News Release, 6 February 2019
Dimitar Bechev, The Impact of North
Macedonia's Accession to NATO, RUSI           NATO To Sign Accession Pact With
Newsbrief, 25 April 2019                      Macedonia, Paving Way For Membership,
                                              Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 2
                                              February 2019

16
What’s in a Name? Membership in NATO,          Azita Raji, The Partnership for Peace: A
The Cipher Brief, 1 February 2019              Quiet NATO Success Story, War on the
                                               Rocks, 8 April 2019
James Pardew, Something remarkable just
happened in the Balkans, The Hill, 31          Secretary General praises NATO’s Open
January 2019                                   Door policy at enlargement anniversary
                                               event, NATO News Release, 18 March 2019
Greek lawmakers ratify Macedonia name
change, clearing way for NATO, EU              Mike Sweeney, NATO Expansion Got Some
membership, Defense News, 25 January           Big Things Right, War on the Rocks, 7
2019                                           March 2019
NATO intelligence chief visits Skopje for      Matthew Cancian and Mark Cancian, It Is
talks on defence reforms, NATO News            Long Past Time to Stop Expanding NATO,
Release, 21 January 2019                       War On The Rocks, 1 March 2019
Macedonia approves historical deal with
Greece to rename itself North Macedonia,       Science for Peace and Security
Independent, 13 January 2019                   Programme
EU and NATO officials congratulate             The NATO Science for Peace and
Macedonia on amending the Constitution,        Security Programme was created in
Western Balkans, 12 January 2019               1958 to promote the training of
Macedonian PM Urges Parliament To Back
                                               scientists, encourage the sharing of
Name Change, Radio Free Europe/ Radio          knowledge, and build networks of
Liberty, 9 January 2019                        experts.
Process of constitutional changes in           NATO works on quantum cryptography
Macedonia to enter final phase, Zaev           with Malta, NATO News Release, 16 April
optimistic, Western Balkans, 4 January         2019
2019
                                               Serbia
Policy
                                               Unlike other Western Balkan partners,
Hal Brands, If NATO Expansion Was a            Serbia does not aspire to join NATO.
Mistake, Why Hasn’t Putin Invaded?             However, the country is deepening its
Bloomberg, 14 May 2019
                                               political dialogue and cooperation with
                                               the alliance on issues of common
NATO Partnership Programmes have
                                               interest, such as defence reforms.
witnessed a constant growth in the past
two decades. Today the system has              Inspired by NATO Bombing, Serbian Artist
become close to unmanageable in                Turns Trauma into Art, Balkan Insight, 30
terms of administrative burden and             May 2019
oversight—not only with regard to the          Serbian president blasts NATO aggression
numbers of partner countries but also          as crime that turned the clock back, TASS,
when it comes to the types of                  27 March 2019
programmes,        initiatives      and
                                               20 years on, Serbian victims of NATO
frameworks, funding and review                 bombings feel forgotten, France 24, 21
mechanisms. This Working Paper                 March 2019
argues     that     the      Partnership
Programmes are in need of adaptation           Serbia Just Got More Russian-Made MiG
                                               Fighters as Arms Race With NATO-Member
and proposes possible steps into that
                                               Croatia Escalates, TIME, 25 February 2019
direction
Wolfgang     Rudischhauser,      Adaptations   Sweden
Needed: NATO Partnership Programmes in
the 21st century, German Federal Academy
                                               NATO and Sweden actively cooperate in
for Security Policy, Security Policy Working   peace and security operations, and the
Paper No. 11/2019, May 2019                    country has been a major contributor to
                                               NATO-led operations and missions in
                                               the Balkans and Afghanistan. Sweden

17
joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace in         Secretary General and Tunisian Foreign
1994 and became a member of the                Minister take stock of partnership between
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in           NATO and Tunisia, NATO News Release, 16
1997. Sweden is one of five countries          May 2019
that has enhanced opportunities for            NATO trains the Tunisian Navy on maritime
dialogue and cooperation with NATO.            simulators, NATO News Release, 22 March
                                               2019
A report for the Swedish Parliament
concluded in January that Sweden               Ukraine
should not join the Treaty on the
Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)          It has been 25 years since Ukraine
“in    its  present    form”.  Diverse         joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace
stakeholders have been submitting              programme and Since 2014, in the
assessments of the report and the              wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
Swedish Government is expected to              cooperation has been intensified. In
make an official decision whether to           January, Ukraine purchased over
join the TPNW in due course.                   $770,000 worth of .50 calibre sniper
                                               rifles from Canada, indicating another
Wheels up for airforce exercise in the skies   step in the direction of the Ukrainian
over   northern     Scandinava,      Barents   military adopting a number of small
Observer, 26 May 2019                          arms (and ammunition) in common
Riina Kaljurand, The Hem and Haw of Sweden’s   standardized usage with NATO forces.
Relationship with NATO, EESTI – Estonia, 22
April 2019                                     In March NATO and the European Union
                                               condemned Russia's 2014 annexation
The past decade has seen substantial           of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula five
shifts in Swedish security policy and          years after Moscow declared the region
major change in the domestic debate            Russian territory. NATO allies said in a
about NATO. For the first time, all of         statement that "we strongly condemn
the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are     this act, which we do not and will not
calling for a full NATO membership,            recognize”. They also criticized Russia's
and popular support for NATO has               military buildup in Crimea and alleged
increased. Yet public opinion contains         rights abuses including "arbitrary
ambiguities    and     paradoxes      that     detentions, arrest, and torture" against
complicate the picture. At the same            members of the Crimean Tartar
time as support for NATO has                   community.
increased, the public is overwhelmingly
                                               Illia Ponomarenko, NATO-Ukraine: Where
for continued military non-alignment.          does relationship stand after 25 years of
Karl Ydén, Joakim Berndtsson and Magnus        talks? Kiev Post, 31 May 2019
Petersson, Sweden and the issue of NATO        Zelenskiy    team    backs     continued
membership: exploring a public opinion         cooperation with NATO, Kyiv Post, 23 April
paradox, Defence Studies, Vol. 19 No.1,        2019
2019, pp.1-18
                                               Sergey Sukhankin, Ukraine’s Thorny Path to
                                               NATO Membership: Mission (im)possible?
Tunisia                                        EESTI – Estonia, 22 April 2019
In 2014, 20 years after joining the            Ukrainian    Presidential   Front-Runner
Mediterranean    Dialogue     initiative,      Pledges to hold Referendum on NATO,
Tunisia entered a NATO individual              Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 18 April
partnership      and       cooperation         2019
programme focused on priority areas            Ukraine caught in cross-fire as Russia-
including counter-terrorism and border         NATO cooperation curtailed, UNIAN, 17
security.                                      April 2019

18
NATO intensifies scientific cooperation      and a NATO Intelligence Division to
with Ukraine, NATO News Release, 11 April    better understand the security threats.
2019                                         In March, the NATO Joint Intelligence
Nikola Mikovic, NATO in the Black Sea: How   and Security Division (JISD), in
will Russia Respond? International Policy    conjunction with the Netherlands
Digest, 5 April 2019                         Defence Intelligence and Security
Cadets from Ukraine’s Naval Forces           Service, hosted the 20th annual NATO
Institute train on NATO mine trawler, Kyiv   Warning Intelligence Working Group
Post, 27 March 2019                          and Symposium, in Amsterdam. Over
                                             the course of the three-day event,
Statement by the North Atlantic Council on
Crimea, NATO News Release, 18 March
                                             intelligence      practitioners      and
2019                                         policymakers exchanged views on the
                                             diverse    threats    and     challenges
NATO-Ukraine      Commission   discusses     currently facing NATO.
situation in Crimea, NATO News Release, 6
March 2019                                   NATO and the United Nations mark
Ukraine expects NATO to provide              continued cooperation against terrorism,
Membership Action Plan, set date of          NATO News Release, 7 May 2019
accession, Ukrinform, 23 February 2019       NATO Nations discuss Warning Intelligence
Ukraine President Signs Constitutional       Reform, NATO News Release, 1 April 2019
Amendment On NATO, EU Membership,
Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty, 19
                                             Maritime Security
February 2019
Ukrainian Parliament Passes Constitutional   NATO’s Maritime Strategy, agreed in
Amendment To Reflect EU, NATO                2011, sets out a series of activities that
Aspirations, Radio Free Europe/ Radio        includes collective defence, crisis
Liberty, 7 February 2019                     management, cooperative security and
                                             maritime security.
Ukrainian snipers are about to get this
powerful new upgrade courtesy of Canada,     Rowan Allport, Fill the Cracks in NATO’s
Military Times, 7 January 2019               Maritime Strategy, Defense One, 3 January
                                             2019
UN-NATO Relations
NATO and the United Nations are              Military Exercises
building on dialogue and cooperation
developed after the end of the Cold          For 2019, a total of 102 NATO
War. A structured framework for              exercises are planned; 39 of them are
cooperation was set out in a Joint           open to partner participation. Allies
Declaration agreed in 2008. In March         reported that they will conduct 208
NATO took part in the annual UN              national and multinational exercises.
Peacekeeping Ministerial Conference in       The exercises led by NATO and allies
New York. The alliance was represented       this year include around 25 exercises
by Clare Hutchinson, NATO Secretary          primarily focused on the land domain,
General’s Special Representative for         27 exercises focused on the air
Women, Peace and Security.                   domain, and 12 exercises focused
                                             mainly on maritime operations. Many
NATO participates in UN Peacekeeping         other exercises train specific functions
Ministerial meeting in New York, NATO        or skills such as cyber defence, crisis
News Release, 1 April 2019                   response decision-making, Chemical,
                                             Biological,    Radiological      Nuclear
Intelligence                                 defence, logistics, communications and
                                             medical. Military exercises conducted
In recent years, NATO has stepped up         so far in 2019 include:
its efforts in Intelligence by creating an
Assistant Secretary General position

19
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