PROJECTION OF DRY BEANS CULTIVATION AREA FOR TURKEY: CASE OF CENTER ANATOLIAN REGION - Jgiass

J. Glob. Innov. Agric. Soc. Sci.,2020,, 8(4):195-201
ISSN (Online): 2311-3839; ISSN (Print): 2312-5225
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22194/JGIASS/8.922
http://www.jgiass.com

 PROJECTION OF DRY BEANS CULTIVATION AREA FOR TURKEY: CASE
 OF CENTER ANATOLIAN REGION
 Hasan Gokhan Dogan*, Mustafa Kan and Arzu Kan
 Kirsehir Ahi Evran University, Agricultural Faculty, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kirsehir-Turkey
 *
 Corresponding author’s e-mail: hg.dogan@ahievran.edu.tr

Dry beans are an agricultural product within the legume family. It is a product included in irrigated farming systems and has a
higher profit margin compared to other products. It is an important resource in meeting the protein needs of people with low
income. In this study, dry bean projections with the ARIMA model have been made for the provinces of Central Anatolia
Region and Turkey in general. The ARIMA model projected that there was an important volatility in the dry bean production
areas over the years. As a result of the estimations, although a rising trend in the period up to 2023, especially after the estimate
was made in 2021 will again switch to a down trend. In the light of the information obtained, it is recommended to eliminate
the factors that will adversely affect the producer's production decisions. It is recommended to further support cost factors to
provide price stability and to examine the actors in the supply chain.
Keywords: Fabaceae, Legumes, Dry bean, Vegetable protein, ARIMA model, Turkey.

INTRODUCTION acreage and production amount is among the top 20 countries.
 However, it is seen that both the area and the production are
Agriculture is the main sector in meeting the nutritional needs in a decreasing trend (2000-2017).
of people. The sustainability of the sector and fair distribution
of production is the strategic goal of every country. For this
reason, the concept of food security is gaining importance day
by day. This concept is so important that it points to the
problems of hunger and malnutrition in many countries in
today's world. In this context, the agricultural sector is the
production center of the protein that people need with plant
and animal production. In some conditions, it becomes
difficult to provide animal protein and people turn to plant
sources. In plant sources, edible grain legumes come to the
fore. Figure 1. The major legume producing countries of the
Legumes are grown in almost all parts of the world and 200 world (FAO, 2020).
species are known to be cultivated (Akçin, 1988). Edible
legumes are a source of protein for more than 2 billion people Legume, which is one of Turkey's traditional agricultural
around the world. It is low in fat, high in carbohydrates and products, comes in second after cereals. The most produced
nutritious. 22% of plant-based proteins and 7% of are dried beans, chickpeas and lentils. It is important that
carbohydrates in human nutrition in the world; 38% of chickpeas and lentils in arid and semi-arid areas and beans in
proteins in animal nutrition and 5% of carbohydrates are irrigated areas are planted, increasing the yield per unit area
obtained from edible legumes (Adak et al., 2010). On the and reducing fallow lands. With the "Reduction of Fallow
other hand, animal feed is an important group in crop rotation Lands" Project implemented in the early 1980s, our legume
due to its properties such as binding free nitrogen in the air. production increased, fallow areas narrowed, and in 1990 the
The role of legumes in the sustainable agriculture system can cultivation area reached up to 2 million hectares. There have
be listed as low carbon footprint, a healthy soil, fight against been significant reduction in cultivation area and production
diseases and pests, saving water, importance in human since the 2000s. Although being first in the world legume
nutrition and economics. production during the last 10 years, but acreage decreased by
The proportional shares of the top 5 countries in terms of 40% and production decreased by 29% in Turkey
production area in the world for edible legumes during 2000- (FAOSTAT, 2020; TURKSTAT, 2019).
2017 are shown in Figure 1. India ranks first in terms of world Among the legumes, dry beans are cultivated on the largest
edible legume production area. Turkey in the total amount of area in the world. It is grown in 126 countries around the

Dogan, Kan & Kan

world. Dry bean cultivation areas, which are mostly grown in Dry bean cultivation area, production amount and yield values
Asia and America, were at the level of 25 million hectares in the last 10 years for the provinces of Karaman, Konya,
between 1980-2000; however, it reached 34.5 million Nevşehir and Yozgat in the study area are given in Table 1.
hectares in 2018 (FAOSTAT, 2020). Dry beans, as of 2018,
it constitutes 36.04% of legume cultivation areas and 32.98% Table 1. Dry bean production area, yield and total
of legume production. India comes first in dry bean production in the last 10 years for Karaman,
production areas with 13.5 million ha; Brazil (2.8 million ha) Konya, Nevşehir, Yozgat Provinces.
and Myanmar (2.7 million ha) follow India. In production, Dry Bean
India again ranks first with 6.2 million tons. India is followed Provinces Cultivated Yield (kg/da) Total Product
by Myanmar (4.8 million tons), Brazil (2.9 million tons) Area (da) (Tones)
(FAOSTAT, 2020). 2009
Only 14% of the dry beans produced in the world are Karaman 51920 341 17712
subjected to trade. Since legume products are an important Konya 162680 316 51477
source of plant-based protein, the remaining 86% of the Nevşehir 8170 136 1109
production is aimed at meeting the domestic demand of the Yozgat 11645 120 1395
countries (TOB, 2019). 2019
A total of 73 provinces in Turkey cultivated dry bean in the Karaman 89580 288 25826
year 2019. Konya, Nevşehir, Karaman and Yozgat are the Konya 148331 335 49664
provinces where production is the most intense (TURKSTAT, Nevşehir 73259 295 21637
2020). Especially the Central Anatolia Region, where these Yozgat 4315 131 566
provinces are located, is regarded as the center of dry bean Disparity (%)
production. Edible legumes have an important place in Karaman 72.53 -15.54 45.81
nutrition processes. Dry bean agriculture, which is among the Konya -8.82 6.01 -3.52
edible legumes, also has an important place in the policies of Nevşehir 796.68 116.91 1851.04
the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. When some studies Yozgat -62.95 9.17 -59.43
on legumes are examined, Bayaner and Uzunlu (1999)
proposed effective policies for legumes production in A decrease is seen in Konya and Yozgat provinces in terms of
Turkey's keeping in view the importance in world trade. cultivation area in the last 10 years (Table 1). In terms of
Karabak and Cevher (2002), in a study conducted in the production amount, it can be stated that similarly, there is
Central Anatolia Region identified factors such as price significant decrease in Konya and Yozgat provinces.
instability, weakness of product exchanges, ineffectiveness of
the state's regulatory capability, and forward product sales as
limiting factors in legume production. Gündüz and Esengün
(2004) also emphasized that the producers do not have a say
in price determination due to the formation of agricultural
product prices in the free market, and the fluctuation in gross
income is caused by fluctuations in prices rather than yields.
Uzunöz (2009) found that although the domestic terms of
trade were realized in favor of agriculture, but the real income
of the legume producer’s decreased. It has been stated that the
terms of trade for dried beans, lentils and chickpeas have been
in a downward trend in recent years, causing a decline in the
real income of these producers. According to Hasdemir et al.
(2015) the amount of premiums paid to producers under the
 Figure 2. Dry bean planting, production and yield
name of difference payment support, and the availability of
 distribution by years in Turkey (TURKSTAT,
fertilizer and quality seeds at affordable prices are moderately
 2020).
important conditions for producers. For this reason, it has
been concluded that it is important to develop and maintain
 The last 15 years in Turkey beans production areas showed
the existing policies on fertilizer and diesel and certified
 42.50% decrease and 10% decrease in total production (Fig.
legume seed support. Kan et al. (2019) in their study on local
 2). Yield increased by 55.82%. Despite the significant
bean populations in the Central Kızılırmak Basin, presented
 increase in yield, the same level of increase was not observed
the recommendations on the status of local bean populations,
 in total production due to the contraction in cultivation areas
the capital assets of the producers growing these populations
 and other factors. Legumes share in Turkey field crops
and how to evaluate these populations.
 sowing area in the 1980s was 3%, which especially

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Dry beans cultivation projection

Narrowing of Fallow Field (NAD) in 1990 within the RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
framework increased to 11.2%, while in 2014 decreased to
3.1% (Kün et al., 2005; TURKSTAT, 2019). The decrease in ARIMA model results for the dry bean growing areas in
production is less than the cultivation areas, but limited Turkey are given in Table 2.
studies, articles and reports on this subject are available for
the reasons of the decrease. Many reasons have been shown Table 2. ARIMA Model for dry bean cultivation areas in
such as high production costs, low produce prices, requiring Turkey.
intense labor (village population is old due to migration from Dependent Variable: Dry Bean Cultivation Area Prob.
rural to urban and the problem of finding seasonal workers), Selected Model: (2,4)(0,1)
use of local varieties, diseases, weeds, and the varieties used AIC: -2.91827015474
are not suitable for mechanization (Adak, 2010; Ton et al., Variable Coefficient Std. Dev. t-stat.
2014; Ünüvar, 2014; Gülümser, 2016; Bolat et al., 2017; C -0.029138 0.0032 -8.94880 0.0000
 AR(1) 1.919919 0.1248 15.38651 0.0000
GDARP, 2019). However, the producer's priority problems,
 AR(2) -0.996835 0.1124 -8.87111 0.0000
the producer's solutions to these problems, demands and MA(1) -1.064195 3337.3400 -0.00032 0.9997
concrete suggestions to guide policy makers were not MA(2) 0.271858 534.5889 0.00051 0.9996
presented. MA(3) -1.064248 1173.4080 -0.00091 0.9993
In this study, dry bean planting area estimates were presented MA(4) 0.999940 3933.2950 0.00025 0.9998
with ARIMA model. Konya, Karaman, Nevşehir, Yozgat SMA(1) -0.999952 7998.8210 -0.00012 0.9999
provinces were determined as research areas. These provinces SIGMASQ 0.001054 1.0818 0.00097 0.9992
account for 35% of the total dry bean production area. Also R2 0.680634 Ad. R2 0.5590
made estimates for overall Turkey. F-statistic 5.594398 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0007

MATERIALS AND METHOD The selected ARIMA model can be expressed as (2,4) (0,1)
 as indictaed in Table 2. The lowest AIC (Akaike Information
In this study, cultivation/production projections has been Criteria), which is taken into consideration in the model
made for Karaman, Konya, Nevşehir, Yozgat and Turkey. selection, was determined as -2.91827015474. The coefficient
While making these projections, ARIMA (Autoregressive of determination obtained is 0.68 and represents the model at
Integrated Moving Average) model was used with the help of the level of 68%. The model is completely statistically
the data set created with time series. The research period significant at the p

Dogan, Kan & Kan

The projections made according to the ARIMA model for Estimation of dry bean cultivation areas for the province of
Turkey's 2023 dry bean cultivation areas are presented in Karaman for the year 2023 is given in Table 5. It can be
Table 3. It showed cultivation area about 892543 da. predicted that the cultivation area of dry beans in Karaman
According to this, Turkey had a lower level of cultivation area province will be in 70692 da by 2023.
by 2019.
 Table 5. Estimates of field dry beans cultivation by 2023
Table 3. Estimates of field dry beans cultivation by 2023 in Karaman province.
 in Turkey. Year Cultivation Area (da)
 Year Cultivation Area (da) 2023 70692.83
 2023 892543.04
 The results of ARIMA model for the cultivation area of dry
The results of ARIMA model for the cultivated area of dry beans in Konya is given in Table 6. The bean cultivated area
beans in Karaman province are given in Table 4. These results for Konya province determined by ARIMA model was (0,2)
stated that the accepted model is (2,1) (0,0). The AIC value (0,0). The smallest AIC value considered in determining the
was determined as 0.440034903926 based on the criteria for model was 23.0139046658. The determination coefficient of
obtaining the lowest AIC value in the model selection criteria. the model is 0.47 and it explains the model at the level of 47%.
The coefficient of determination of the model was obtained as The model is statistically significant at the level of p

Dry beans cultivation projection

Estimation of dry bean cultivation area in Konya province by Estimation of dry bean cultivation area in Nevşehir province
2023 year is given in Table 7, which predicts that the 2023- is given in the Table 9 for 2023 year. The projection for the
year estimate for the dry bean cultivation area of Konya is province of Nevşehir is as 20687 da for 2023 year.
159469 da.
 Table 9. Estimates of field dry beans cultivation by 2023
Table 7. Estimates of field dry beans cultivation by 2023
 in Nevsehir province.
 in Konya province.
 Year Cultivation Area (da)
 Year Cultivation Area (da)
 2023 20687.16
 2023 159469.25
 The results of ARIMA model for dry bean cultivation area in
The results of ARIMA model for dry bean cultivation area in
 Yozgat are given in Table 10. The bean cultivation area for
Nevşehir province are given in Table 8. When the ARIMA
 Yozgat was determined by ARIMA model as (2,1) (0,0). The
model results were examined, the dry bean cultivation area in
 AIC value was 0.92355847735. The R2 value, which reflects
Nevşehir province were estimated as (2,1) (0,0). The lowest
 the explanation power of the model, is 0.89 and it can be
AIC value, which is the criteria for determining the model,
 stated that it explains 89% of the model. The created model is
was obtained as 20.7532823324. The coefficient of
 completely meaningful and statistically significant at p

Dogan, Kan & Kan

Estimation of dry bean cultivation area in Yozgat province is Baklagil Ürünlerinin (Nohut, Kur Fasulye, Kırmızı
given in the Table 11 for 2023 year. The cultivation area of Mercimek) Arz Zinciri Yapısının İncelenmesi".
dry beans in Yozgat can be predicted as 12818 da for 2023
year. REFERENCES

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 [Received 10 Jun 2020; Accepted 28 sept- 2020; Published (online) 29 Dec 2020]

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