PLATFORM MERGERS AND ANTITRUST - Bruegel
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WORKING PAPER | ISSUE 01/2021 | UPDATED VERSION 15 JUNE 2021 PLATFORM MERGERS AND ANTITRUST GEOFFREY PARKER, GEORGIOS PETROPOULOS AND MARSHALL VAN ALSTYNE Platform ecosystems rely on economies of scale, data-driven economies of scope, high quality algorithmic systems, and strong network effects that frequently promote winner-takes-most markets. Some platform firms have grown rapidly and their merger and acquisition strategies have been very important factors in their growth. Big platforms’ market dominance has generated competition concerns that are difficult to assess with current merger policy tools. We examine the acquisition strategies of the five major US firms—Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft—since their inception. We discuss the main merger and acquisition theories of harm that can restrict market competition and reduce consumer welfare. To address competition concerns about acquisitions in big platform ecosystems we develop a four step proposal that incorporates: (1) a new ex-ante regulatory framework, (2) an update of the conditions under which the notification of mergers should be compulsory and the burden of proof should be reversed, (3) differential regulatory priorities in investigating horizontal versus vertical acquisitions, and (4) an update of competition enforcement tools to increase visibility into market data and trends. Geoffrey Parker: Dartmouth College Georgios Petropoulos: Bruegel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University Marshall Van Alstyne: Boston University We are very thankful to Aidai Kozubekova and Nicole Evans for their superb research assistance. The paper benefitted greatly from discussions with Erik Brynjolfsson, Luis Cabral, Avinash Collis, Maria Demertzis, Nestor Duch-Brown, Justus Haucap, Bertin Martens, Maciej Sobolewski, Tommaso Valletti and Guntram Wolff, as well as seminar participants at Bruegel. Georgios Petropoulos gratefully acknowledges financial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 799093. Finally, we gratefully acknowledge editorial assistance from Elizabeth Parker. Recommended citation: Parker, G., G. Petropoulos and M. Van Alstyne (2021) ‘Platform mergers and antitrust, Working Paper 01/2021, Bruegel
1 Introduction Merger activity can be anticompetitive. It can also enhance efficiency. We explore this simultaneous problem and opportunity for platform firms and their digital ecosystems. Such firms have become increasingly dominant in the global economy and, as a result, are drawing significant regulatory scrutiny. Our goal is to catalogue the magnitude of platform merger and acquisition (M&A) activity for the largest platforms, describe their varying motives, explore the potential for harm, and put forth a set of proposals that might mitigate such harm. These proposals are designed to (1) improve the flow of information, (2) adjust the notification threshold and the burden of proof in merger cases, (3) better assess the dynamic effects of mergers, and (4) suggest updates to merger policy tools. Consumers interact with third parties via platforms and use them to find relevant products and services that suit their needs and preferences1. Producers and service providers (eg manufacturers and retailers, content providers, app developers) can promote their goods, often without the constraints of geographical barriers and can access large user bases that allow them to grow their businesses. It is the interactions between users of the same or different types that create value in digital ecosystems. In many cases, platform intermediaries are present in digital ecosystems and provide services that promote value production and facilitate interactions between users. Platforms adopt open infrastructures in which they provide services that are attractive to external users. Users join these infrastructures to both consume a platform’s services and interact with other users. Platforms also adopt and enforce governance rules over the access and behaviour of the users on the infrastructure as well as dispute resolution mechanisms when these rules are challenged by market participants. The degree of openness is a critical choice that platforms must make (Eisenmann et al, 2009). Depending on a platform’s choice, value creation can be primarily internal, primarily external, or some intermediate combination. Internal value creation is achieved through platforms’ own production of output (products and services) that is directly valuable to their users. External value creation refers to external contributors such as app developers, service providers, and other external producers who can increase a user’s benefit from participation in the platform. The allocation of value creation between the platform and its ecosystem of value adders defines the so-called “inverted firm” problem that considers whether to create value inside or outside (Parker et al, 2017, 2018). Many platforms have 1 It is in fact this modularity of allowing “a set of distinct yet interdependent organizations to coordinate without full hierarchical fiat” that contributed to the emergence of platform ecosystems (Jacobides et al, 2018). 1
followed the path of external production; they harness certain users as producers representing an external labour force that is not captured by traditional labour statistics. One critical area of platform activity is their unprecedented ability to capture data from the various users who transact on the platform. Combined with this access, the technological progress related to artificial intelligence and machine learning has led to the development of revolutionary techniques that treat data as a valuable asset. Platforms collect data from their users and “translate” this information into new or improved services, more tailored user offerings, and better matched interactions with other users of the ecosystem. Such information is valuable at an individual level, as it leads to personalisation of services. But, when platforms have a large number of users, additional efficiency benefits are realised through information aggregation. These efficiencies arise from economies of scope (Martens, 2020): merging two complementary datasets can generate more insights and economic value compared to keeping them in separate data silos. Hence, when two datasets are complementary and not entirely separable, applying data analytics techniques to the merged set can yield more insights and be more productive than applying it to each set separately, especially when the marginal cost of applying analytics to a more complex dataset is small. Data-driven economies of scope can be very valuable to platform ecosystems because they also facilitate strategies of platform’s expansion both horizontally and vertically. Platforms can repurpose the insights from data and information they have collected to operate in closely (horizontal) adjacent markets where this information can be helpful. For example, by getting unique insights in general online search and by better understanding the preferences of its users, a platform can more easily develop services in complementary businesses, such as comparison-shopping services, online job listings, and online flight search services. In addition, platforms use data to explore vertical expansion and compete directly with upstream producers that operate in their infrastructure, exactly because the aggregate information provides a privileged view better than that of any individual producer. For instance, mobile operating system platforms have entered lucrative upstream applications such as music streaming, mapping, news provision, and fitness. For another example, Amazon frequently enters the markets of its suppliers (Zhu and Liu, 2018; Zhu, 2019). Critical for a platform’s prominence within its core business or its expansion in other vertical or horizontal markets are two other economic forces that are commonly seen in digital ecosystems. First, we observe significant economies of scale. Digital goods and services are typically produced at a 2
significant fixed cost but no or little variable cost (Varian et al, 2004). In other words, the cost of production is much less than proportional to the number of customers served. Hence, once established, digital firms can grow quickly by expanding their operations to new users or adjacent markets at minimum cost. Second, network effects are particularly important in many of these ecosystems. The user’s value from participating in the platform can increase with the participation of other users – on the same or another side of the platform – within the ecosystem. These three forces – economies of scope, economies of scale, and network effects – contributed to an increase in the first-mover advantage and to the emergence of a few winner-take-most platforms that serve as gatekeepers for the digital ecosystems they operate: they orchestrate large numbers of interactions among their users, who depend on the gatekeeper for addressing scale economies and market failures that individuals cannot address themselves. In other words, gatekeepers exercise increased control over whole platform ecosystems that i) makes difficult to contest by existing or new market operators, irrespective of how innovative and efficient they may be; ii) makes difficult for users to find alternative paths, outside the gatekeeper, to be active in the online ecosystem in an efficient way. To address the competitive concerns that emerge with the development of some super-platforms through the combination of these forces, Parker et al (2020) argued that we need more structural solutions that rely on ex-ante regulation, as an additional instrument that harmonically complements ex-post enforcement. This paper goes further by focusing on how we can combine ex-ante regulatory instruments with merger control and antitrust enforcement. It deals with platforms that are central enough to be characterised as infrastructure gatekeepers because of the very large number of interactions they handle. It studies the M&A expansion strategies of these platforms as well as their impact on the competitive landscape. We analyse the potential anticompetitive harms of such acquisitions and argue that a new ex-ante regulatory approach for information sharing, complemented with a proper update of merger policy analysis and tools can help online ecosystems become more competitive and innovative with platform M&As that primarily promote efficiency gains and are beneficial for consumers. Further, M&As are important strategic decisions that allow platforms to i) establish their presence in their core business and grow larger; ii) expand in related horizontal markets with the acquisition of relevant technologies and a workforce from the merged entities; and iii) expand in vertical markets benefitting both from the efficiencies of vertical integration and the information advantages relative to ecosystem partners. 3
The remainder of this paper is organised as follows: Section 2 briefly presents the core platform business models of the five largest western platforms: Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft (we refer to these firms collectively with the acronym GAFAM). Section 3 presents qualitative and quantitative evidence regarding the M&A activity of GAFAMs since the start of their operations. We also discuss how mergers contributed to the horizontal or vertical and conglomerate expansion of these platforms. Section 3 presents the main theories of harm as well as efficiencies associated with these mergers. Section 4 briefly describes our proposal, starting with the basic principles of the regulatory proposal of PPVA, and how it can address certain competition concerns related to M&As. We then discuss potential updates to merger policy analysis and competition tools so that they fit better the platform age. Section 5 concludes. 2 GAFAMs as digital platforms Digital platforms can be defined as digital resources that operate at the intermediary level that promote value production and facilitate interactions between their users. Individual users or consumers visit the platform to consume some goods through their interaction with other users and constitute the downstream side of the platform. Business users visit the platform to supply their products and services to the demand side and they constitute the upstream side of the platform. Put differently, each is also an “inverted” firm in the sense that enormous value is created outside the firm itself and the standard upstream-downstream factions blur. Users often create value for other users, as in the case of user generated content, and suppliers often create value for other suppliers as in the case of shared developer files. GAFAMs have developed their own ecosystems in which they provide a variety of intermediary services but they are also present in the upstream market competing with external business users and in the downstream market orchestrating user behaviour. The interaction of users occurs through the platform's infrastructure. Platforms typically decide the access and governance rules that users should satisfy once they join their infrastructure. These rules also define the degree of openness of the platform and subsequently how value is created, balancing internal and external creation. GAFAMs differ with respect to these aspects. For example, in the social media market, Facebook adopts an open infrastructure that allows app developers to provide functionalities that increase the 4
(externally produced) value of the platform2. Better applications increase the probability of individual users to spend more time on the platform and interact with each other. The main source of revenue for Facebook is the interactions between individual users and advertisers through an ad-auction monetisation mechanism. In contrast, Microsoft’s LinkedIn adopts a more closed infrastructure, with more control and monitoring over app developers products that become available in the platform, while keeping similar monetisation strategies (eg promotion of content and relevant ads in exchange of a commission). Microsoft’s core platform is its operating system for desktop and mobile devices (Windows). App developers (upstream side) design software applications that run on the Windows platform to make it more useful for its users (downstream side). Additional related platform markets are the ones of office software applications (eg Microsoft Office) and browser market (eg Microsoft Edge) where developers develop add-ons that expand their functionalities. Moreover, from GAFAM firms, Microsoft is the one that has been more engaged by developing a gaming platform that helps gamers and suppliers of relevant content to interact. Apple exclusively attaches its platform model on the hardware it manufactures (eg personal computers, smartphones). Users of its hardware products can only get software applications through Apple’s app store, which is the platform for their interaction with app developers. For participating in this app store, developers have to comply with access rules and pricing policy as well as provide to Apple a commission3 for all the in-app transactions they will be engaged with hardware users. Amazon’s core platform is an online marketplace for the interaction between supply and demand of products that are consumed physically or digitally. In addition, Amazon has developed a crowdsourcing marketplace (MTurk) for services that makes it easier for individuals and businesses to outsource their processes and jobs to a distributed workforce who can perform these tasks virtually. Last but not least, Google’s main platform has to do with online search. But, the internet company has developed additional platforms like the Google Android mobile operating system, which is open source and facilitates interactions between software developers and mobile smartphone users. 2 However, the possibilities of the app developers to do that were somewhat restricted following the Cambridge Analytica scandal, with the imposition of new rules in favour of transparency and privacy protection. 3 https://www.apple.com/ie/ios/app-store/principles-practices/. 5
One common characteristic of GAFAMs is that they are also present to the upstream side of the platforms they operate and manage. So, they directly compete with external business users such as suppliers of goods and app developers. They also have explored further possibilities over the vertical structure of the digital value chain which gave rise to focus on new markets and digital applications that are linked to their core platform business. For example, Amazon has developed a system for distribution of its marketplace products which has become more efficient with its focus on robotic systems and drones. Apple is advancing its manufactured products parallel to its platform business and the software application it designs for them. Amazon, Google and Microsoft are the leading vendors in the Infrastructure-as-a-Service cloud computing market that help firms advance and improve their products without being constrained from on premises costly investments on infrastructure. So, another common characteristic of these big platforms is that they have been pioneering in exploring promising avenues of the digital space that while to some extent are linked to their core platform business, they belong to the non-platform part of these firms operations. 3 M&A strategies of big platforms Platforms have developed distinct M&A strategies over time as their businesses have evolved. To understand these, we created a dataset of all publicly reported GAFAM M&As, from their inception to August 2020. For this data set we relied on information on M&As provided by Crunchbase, Wikipedia, the Thurman Arnold Project at Yale University, and Microsoft Investor Relations Acquisition History. For each merger observation further research was performed to identify the price of the acquisition, the acquired firm, its specialisation and the industry it belongs to, how the acquired firm was integrated in the business model of the big tech company, whether the acquisition involved technology transfer, talent acquisition, or both (balanced). We also collected public statements by the merged entities and used them to assess the motive of each acquisition and the strategic value it brings to the acquirer platforms. The number of acquisitions for each of these firms are reported in Figure 1 together with the month and the year of their first recorded acquisition. The total number of acquisitions is 825. Google has the greatest average number of acquisitions per year (13.11) since its first recorded M&A in 2001. Microsoft (7.24) and Facebook (6.8) follow with M&As since 1988 and 2005, respectively. 6
Figure 2 reports the number of M&As M of eac h of these firms from 20 000 to 2019.. GAFAMs collectively increaseed their M&AA activity in 2010 (mainlly because of o the increaased M&A acctivity by Google and Faceboook) while in 2014 2 the number of acquuisitions reached a recorrd number off 73 (out of which w 37 were Gooogle acquisiitions). In the last decadde, as discusssed below, we have seeen that GAFAAMs have developed a significcant M&A acctivity with thhe acquisitioon of either complemenntary or subsstitutable units thaat expand theeir business activities. Figure 11: 825 mergeers and acquisitions by GGAFAM occurrred from 198 87 - 2020: Google 330%, Microsooft 29%, Apple 16%, Amazzon 13%, Faccebook 12% Figure 22: Number of GAFAM merggers and acqquisitions peer firm and yeear betweenn 2000-2019 9 7
It is worthwhile to briefly describe the broad M&A plan of these firms. Starting with Amazon, we identify a phase of establishment first as an online retailer. Early acquisitions served as an opportunity for a geographic expansion. Amazon entered the UK, Germany, and China as an online retailer. At the same time, Amazon acquired other online retailers whose specialisations covered a wide range of products, thus combining the acquired firms’ functionality and their customers’ data to improve Amazon services. That also came together with the acquisition of specific tools that, on the one hand, can make the online retail experience more user-friendly and, on the other hand, can contribute to its more effective monetisation. For example, Amazon managed to outbid eBay to acquire LiveBid.com in 1999, the sole provider of live-event auctions on the Internet at the time. Amazon implemented LiveBid.com's technology on its online retail activities. Moreover, the acquisition of Alexa Internet in the same year helped Amazon to better understand the online behaviour of users and closely monitor how consumers reacted to its products and services. After 2006, Amazon expanded the range of its acquisitions beyond the establishment, improvement and expansion of its online retail activities. It started to acquire firms relevant to its web services (which primarily focus on business users). Amazon also became more active in acquisitions in the field of media entertainment subsequent to its entry into the film and television industry through the Prime Video unit. In the last decade, Amazon Web Services became the most active unit of Amazon in acquisitions. At the same time, other acquisitions increasingly targeted artificial intelligence firms as well as firms that specialise in robotic systems and drones. Amazon’s most expensive acquisitions are those that added new capabilities or markets to its business model4: Zappos in 2009: Amazon initially tried to compete with Zappos in the online shoe retail market, through its subsidiary Endless.com, without much success. The acquisition of Zappos was an alternative way to increase its market prominence by eliminating one of its main competitors. Following the acquisition, Amazon closed Endless.com. Kiva Systems in 2012: The acquisition of the maker of service robots at warehouses allowed Amazon to improve the efficiency of operations at its fulfilment centres. Whole Foods Market in 2017: This allowed Amazon to integrate its digital infrastructure with a retail distribution network grocery store and the types of products offered by grocers. This integration proved to be particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic. 4 The price of GAFAM acquisitions is often not reported. We are referring here to the pool of acquisitions for which the price was disclosed. 8
Ring in 2018: This acquisition of a network connected video doorbell company signalled the ambition of Amazon to develop smart home devices with the help of its artificial intelligence technology. Pillpack in 2018: Amazon’s acquisition of this online pharmacy signals the intention of the company to expand in retail markets for pharmaceutical products. Zoox in 2020: Zoox’s ground-up technology, which includes developing zero-emission vehicles built specifically for autonomous use, could significantly contribute to Amazon’s future operations in the area of transportation. Moving to the second firm of our sample, Apple has, throughout most of its history, adopted a closed ecosystem for its products. Before the development of the iPhone and its associated App Store, a major objective of Apple’s acquisition strategies had been to introduce additional functionalities in its core business of personal computers. These acquisitions had to do with relevant software applications that can run in the Macintosh operating system or that aim at updating the operating system. Interestingly, in 1997 Apple acquired Power Computing Corporation which developed clones that ran the Macintosh operating system. The objective of the acquisition was to replicate Microsoft’s and Intel’s success in fostering cheaper hardware in order to expand Apple’s position in operating systems. However, Steve Jobs reversed the decision that same year because Power Computing was cannibalising Apple hardware sales instead of expanding the market5. Without a license to use Apple’s operating system software, Power Computing went out of business in 19986. With the development of the internet, Apple targeted its acquisition strategies towards information technologies that provided particular services for Apple’s online network. Examples include identification of suspicious websites that are engaged in illegal activities, development of educational content for teachers and students compatible with iPod, and web applications relevant to office work. Apple also grew in music applications with the acquisition of SoundJam MP, one of the most highly acclaimed MP3 players for the Macintosh. The development of the iPhone and the associated App Store brought Apple to a new era that significantly affected its acquisition strategies. The focus shifted to human-machine interaction by acquiring online applications related to its mobile operating system, maps and navigation, online search, the voice control software Siri (acquired in 2010 and later evolved into Apple’s personal 5 https://www.nytimes.com/1997/09/03/business/apple-decides-cloning-isn-t-its-route-back-to- profitability.html. 6 https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/cyber/week/013098power.html. 9
assistant), music and books, semiconductor manufacturing, database analytics, facial and speech recognition, mobile photography, and so on. During the last five years, Apple has been targeting firms that are active in artificial intelligence and its applications (especially those related to Siri), as well as in online payment services, and has developed an interest in autonomous vehicles. The secrecy of the firm over its merger deals makes it hard to develop clear insight into the price of its most expensive mergers. Among the values that are disclosed, the acquisition of Intel’s smartphone modem business and consumer audio products manufacturer Beats Electronics were the most expensive. Beats provided manufacturing capacity and also offered an online streaming service, which was discontinued when Apple moved its subscribers to Apple music. In the app space, navigator app HopStop.com was the costliest. Facebook, the youngest of the five companies in our sample, started its M&A activity with a focus on creating a user-friendly social network experience. That motivated the acquisition of functionalities such as shaping an online conversation, enabling photo sharing, creating an environment for travellers to share their stories, and providing updates for live events or an online instant messaging platform. At the same time, other acquisitions focused on the monetisation channel through targeted advertising techniques. The last 6 years, Facebook has been particularly active in the acquisition of companies that specialise in computer vision, virtual and augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Facebook’s three most expensive acquisitions were: Instagram (acquired in 2012): a video and photo social network sharing platform. Its services are considered substitutes for those of the Facebook platform (see Argentesi et al. 2021 for a critical review of this case). WhatsApp (acquired in 2014): a platform that allows its users to send text messages, make voice and video calls, and share images, documents, user locations, and other media to each other. This platform provides similar services to Facebook Messenger. Oculus (acquired in 2014): a producer of virtual reality headsets designed for video gaming. Oculus has been instrumental in the virtual reality unit of Facebook, motivating further acquisitions designed to augment and complement the virtual reality applications of the platform. Facebook M&A activity has been motivated to some extent by the platform’s competitive concerns. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and CFO David Ebersman, in their email conversation over the 10
acquisition of platforms like Instagram, revealed by The Verge7, agreed that one of the objectives for such acquisitions is to neutralise competitors and to prevent them from growing and disrupting Facebook’s market operation. Similar concerns were raised in the acquisition of WhatsApp at the record price of $19 billion, the second most expensive acquisition by GAFAMs behind Microsoft’s acquisition of LinkedIn (at a price of $26 billion). Published Facebook conversations and charts8 illustrate that Facebook was monitoring WhatsApp and found out that its user base was steadily increasing in such a way that it could evolve to become a potential competitor of Facebook9. Google’s early M&A activity focused on establishing its presence in online search. The company pursued acquisitions relevant to the personalisation of search services, customer relationship management, and the efficiency of its online advertising system. With the acquisition of Android in 2005, Google directed much of its M&A activity towards its mobile ecosystem. Another important acquisition was YouTube which allowed Google to become a dominant firm in video sharing. It augmented the YouTube system with the acquisition of extra functionalities for desktop and mobile video sharing. In the last decade, the firm started investing in firms in the cloud computing market while, since 2013, it has focused on acquisitions in the field of home automation, artificial intelligence, image recognition, natural language processing, and machine learning. The most expensive Google acquisition was its 2011 acquisition of Motorola mobility for $12.5 billion. This allowed the company to become more active in the smartphone market. However, facing losses, in 2014 it sold the hardware business to Lenovo for $2.9 billion while keeping Motorola’s patent portfolio as a complement to the Android ecosystem10. Google’s second most expensive acquisition was for Nest Labs in 2014, which helped the firm to gain a footing in the growing market for web-connected household appliances. The third most costly acquisition was DoubleClick in 2007, which became a core unit in Google’s advertising strategy. DoubleClick offers technology products intended to increase the purchasing efficiency of advertisers and to minimise unsold inventory for publishers. Another merger of significant value was the acquisition of Waze in 2013, a GPS navigation software system 7 https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/29/21345723/facebook-instagram-documents-emails-mark-zuckerberg- kevin-systrom-hearing. 8 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/charliewarzel/why-facebook-bought-whatsapp. 9 Gautier and Lamesch (2020) assign the potential killer acquisition motive to Facebook for the target firm Masquerade, a picture sharing app that offers filters for selfies. Their classification test involves the following conditions: i) The core business of the acquired firm is at a market where the GAFAM has significant market power; ii) the acquired firm should have a sufficiently large user base; iii) the acquired firm should continue its business line after the acquisition. 10 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jan/29/google-motorola-lenovo-sale. 11
with real-time crowdsourced traffic conditions. Waze provided a close substitute to Google’s maps and navigator unit. Microsoft first reported acquisition in our sample took place in 1987. Early acquisitions focused on software applications for personal computers and computer networks. They targeted new functionalities that were further developed to provide better home, office and entertainment services. In 2000, the company began to acquire computer gaming assets. For example, Microsoft purchased Bungie studios in 200011. The purchase allowed Microsoft to launch its Xbox game console with the exclusive game Halo, developed by Bungie12. Other acquisition targets included developers of tools that facilitate information sharing among online users and of web services that provide security and protection for online activities. Acquisitions shifted to mobile applications from 2007 while Microsoft also acquired the mobile phone business of manufacturer Nokia in 2013 to create the Microsoft Mobile unit. Later acquisitions, apart from online gaming, also focused on the cloud computing market where Microsoft’s Azure division is one of the main vendors (together with Amazon and Google). The acquisition of developer’s platform GitHub in 2018 illustrates an acquisition strategy of purchasing assets that gain additional access to developer communities13. Significant and costly acquisitions include: aQuantive in 2007: The acquisition of this advertising network that provides digital marketing and technology solutions was integrated with Microsoft’s online search engine Bing in order to better monetise users’ search activities in the advertising side. Skype in 2011: The internet communications company supported Microsoft devices such as Xbox and Kinect, Windows Phone, and a wide array of Windows devices, allowing Microsoft to integrate Skype users with Lync, Outlook, Xbox Live, and other communities. LinkedIn in 2016: The professional social networking site introduced Microsoft in a new business line with the possibility to combine its software suite with the network’s structure. This is the largest recorded acquisition in GAFAM history. 11 https://www.ign.com/articles/2000/06/20/microsoft-acquires-bungie. 12 https://www.sfgate.com/entertainment/article/Microsoft-puts-on-its-game-face-New-Xbox-isn-t- 2856291.php. 13 https://hbr.org/2018/06/why-microsoft-is-willing-to-pay-so-much-for-github. 12
One releevant aspect to the acquiisition strate gies has to do d with the type of assett that is acqu uired. The M&A deaal can incorpporate eitherr a complem entary technnology transfer, where thhe new techn nology is integrateed into the core of each GAFAM’s ttechnologiess, increasing the functioonalities of itts digital ecosystem. The M& &A deal migh ht also servee as a meanns of hiring specialised personnel who w have proven ttheir ability to build novel and profitabble digital appplications (ooften referredd to as acquihires). In many caases, an M&AA deal servess both purposses. Figure 3 presents preliminary results forr the percenntage of M& &A deals foor each GAFFAM that incorporrated a talentt acquisition (acquihire) and the share of M&A deeals that incoorporated tecchnology transfer (assets andd technology, where techhnology was either patented or not paatented). Thee column ‘balanceed’ refers to the percenttage of acquuisitions thatt incorporatee both talentt and technology. In addition, the percenntage of tech minant acquissitions (only technology transfer is involved) hnology-dom and thosse where only acquihire took t place arre reported. Figure 33: Mergers annd acquisitioon goals: % B Balanced, % Acquihire, A % Technology T TTransfer Google aand Apple haave the tenddency to acqquire both talent and technology at a share that exceeds 70%. Miccrosoft acquiired technoloogy in more than 99% of its acquisitioons, but it accquired talen nt in only 53% of itts M&A dealss. On the otheer hand, Faceebook, tendeed to acquire talent througgh its acquissitions, at a rate off more than 92%, 9 while tecchnology tra nsfer only occcurred abou ut half the tim me. Overall, our data anaalysis suggests that the M&A strateggies of these big firms caan serve a number of purposees that beneffit these bussinesses andd create valuue. We develop the follow wing typologgy of four overlappping broad caategories of firms’ f acquis ition strategiies. 13
An additional complementary functionality that can help the company provide more efficient services related to its core business (examples are provided in Table 1), New functionalities, products and services added in the vertical value chain that make the platform market more attractive (see Table 2), Substitutable, competing services in firm’s core intermediary or vertical markets of operation that reduce competition (see examples at Table 3 for each of the GAFAM firm) Human capital, either as talent employed by the target firm, or a large user base orchestrated by that firm (see Figure 3). Table 1: Complementary functionalities integrated to the core platform services Amazon Apple Facebook Google Microsoft LiveBid.com Schemasoft Spool (Facial Neotonic Software Fox Software (Online (Developer of recognition software (Provider of (Provider of broadcast software for social networks) services for e-mail database service for components for discussion software) auctions) facilitating digital groups) information workflow) Accept.com Spruce Storylane (Online Applied Semantics Altamira (Image (longer-range Technologies advertising services) (Online composition solutions to (Graphics advertising) technology) simplify person- software) to-person and business-to- consumer transactions on the Internet) Touchco (In Snappy Labs Pebbles (Provider of ZipDash (Traffic ShadowFactor touch screen (Photography cellular network analysis in online (Software for technology) software) technology) maps) multiplayer Internet gaming) Goodreads FingerWorks Two Big Ears reMail (search tool OmniBrowse (Social reading (Multitouch (Developer of an for email) (Wireless data service) technology) application for services) recording video selfie animations) 14
Table 2: New products and services added at the vertical structure Amazon Apple Facebook Google Microsoft Fabric.com Emagic (Mapping Pryte (Developer of a 2Web Hotmail (Web- (Online fabric company that pedometer that works Technologies based email store that offers offers mass with iPhone) (Online service) custom transit spreadsheets) measured and information) cut fabrics, as well as patterns, sewing tools and accessories) Reflexive PowerSchool Wit.ai (In-house Marratech FASA Interactive Entertainment (Student music production (Videoconferencin (Interactive (Developer and information studio) g) entertainment distributor of systems) software) video games) IMDb (Online Spotsetter Infiniled (Platform for Upstartle (Word CompareNet database of (technology, creating electronic processor) (Online information which involves products through a comparison- related to retail layering social 3D printing process) shopping goods) data on top of a services) maps interface) Table 3: Acquisition of firms that produce substitutable goods/services Amazon Apple Facebook Google Microsoft Bookpages Lala.com (Music FriendFeed (Social Orion (Web search Lionhead Studios (Online streaming) media platform) engine) Sprinks (Game developer) bookstore) Telebook (Online MOG (Music Chai Labs (Online Aardvark (Social StorSimple (Cloud- bookstore) streaming) sharing platform for search platform) integrated storage travellers) solutions) Zappos (Online HopStop.com WhatsApp Episodic (Online R2 Studios (Home shoe retailer) (Online maps) (Messaging platform) video platform) entertainment) Woot (Online Swell (Music Instagram (Social Plink (Mobile Mojang (Game retailer) streaming) media platform) search engine) developer) 15
4 Theories of harm of M&As in platform ecosystems M&A events occur frequently. In the EU, in the last 31 years, 8083 mergers have generated government notification (following the threshold notification policy14 applied in the EU) from which only 30 proposed mergers have been blocked and another 140 were cleared with the imposition of remedies15. Prohibitions of mergers is not a popular practice because in many cases M&As either do not raise serious competition concerns or they generate efficiency gains that outweigh competitive harm. A successful merger regulation should prohibit market consolidations that reduce consumer welfare through the restriction of competition. Motta (2004) provides a general framework for the efficiency gains and the anticompetitive effects of mergers for one sided markets. In the case of horizontal mergers, efficiency gains can emerge through improvements in the production process of products and services as well as in the development of greater quality products. The increased market power due to the merger should be analysed in comparison to the efficiency gains that are expected to be realised in order to compute the overall welfare effects through a case by case analysis. Horizontal mergers may also give rise to collusive equilibria that should factor into analysis. When concentration increases across the vertical structure, competition concerns like the risk of foreclosure may arise. However, vertical mergers can also incorporate benefits through the more efficient integration of the vertical chain that removes inefficiencies like double marginalisation, induce lower production costs and helps vertically integrated structures to better link demand preferences with the production of goods. For merger analysis in which digital platforms are involved we need to adjust this general framework in order to capture the specificities of the big digital platform markets discussed above. As discussed in Section 3, M&A strategies can generate additional value by adding new functionalities in the horizontal or vertical chain. However, there are also competition concerns that should be addressed. We divide them into three broad categories: Dynamic competitive concerns, Horizontal and conglomerate merger concerns, Vertical merger concerns. 14 https://ec.europa.eu/competition-policy/system/files/2021-02/merger_control_procedures_en.pdf. 15 https://ec.europa.eu/competition/mergers/statistics.pdf. 16
Before we move forward with the competitive concerns of our framework, it is important to provide a practical distinction between the second and the third categories. To do that, we follow the “End-to-End” principle of Saltzer et al (1981) used to distinguish what goes into the network layer (platform) and what goes into the ends (app layer). The principle suggests that high use functions that most users need should reside in the core of a system where they are always available to all users, while lower use functions that appeal to only niche subsets of users should be at the periphery (ends) where they can be consumed only by those who require them. The reason is that the addition of each system function incurs an overhead cost in reduced execution efficiency. The implication for platforms is that ecosystem partners, ie app producers, should provide the highly variable low use functions in order to provide customised solutions in particular industry verticals. In-game animation is a vertical or end node example. This function is not universal and not all users enjoy games. By contrast, the platform should provide low variety high use functions that span industry verticals. Cut-and-paste is a horizontal example. All users and most applications use it. Hence, efficiency requires it be implemented once, within the operating system itself, for use by any application on top. This principle is fundamental to the design of the Internet and corresponds to the view of platforms as a core set of stable and slowly evolving functions under a layer of modular rapidly evolving functions (Baldwin and Woodard, 2009). Firms use the end-to-end principle to design business platforms (Parker et al, 2016). For example, consultants from firms such as Infosys and Accenture create solutions on top of platforms such as SAP that are specialised for firms in industries such as automotive manufacturing, government services, and energy production. Critically, when functions provided by ecosystem partners become widely demanded, the platform is likely to acquire or replicate those functions in order to include them in the core system where they can be more efficiently provided to all users. Notably, the right to absorb functionality appears as a clause in SAP contracts (Parker and Van Alstyne, 2018). A consumer example of this transition is voice control that began as a separate application but has become part of the standard interface embedded in most operating systems. Absorption into the platform layer means that the platform reduces transaction costs where both users and developers must integrate disparate technologies, thus increasing consumer welfare16. Apple’s acquisition of Siri, for example, illustrates destruction of value to other speech app developers even as it increased iOS value to other speech using developers and all speech using consumers. So, the distinction between horizontal/conglomerate and vertical mergers in platform markets incorporates the following dimension17: horizontal acquisitions require the merged entity to be 16 Absorption is modelled formally in Parker and Van Alstyne (2018). 17 This distinction becomes important for the policy recommendations of Section 5. 17
integrated into core platform infrastructure in order to realise efficiencies of supply (beyond efficiencies of demand). Vertical acquisitions are added as functions, on top of the intermediary’s digital infrastructure, adding value through efficiencies of demand. By the end-to-end principle, the former should affect many more users than the latter. We first discuss dynamic potential harms that might result from mergers and acquisitions, especially when carried out by dominant platforms18. The first theory of harm that we consider is the so-called killer acquisition. Killer acquisitions refer to the situation where incumbent firms acquire targets solely to discontinue the target’s innovation projects in order to pre-empt future competition. Consumer welfare can decrease because consumers miss the benefits from increased competition as well as the alternative consumption choices from new products and services within the same market that would have developed if the acquisition had not taken place. Killer acquisitions can occur at the platform intermediary level, where potential competitors can develop future substitutable services to big platforms. They can also occur at the upstream level where platforms’ upstream subsidiaries can be threatened in the future from the development of new products and services by new upstream competitors. The term was introduced by Cunningham et al (2020) who, using pharmaceutical industry data, showed that acquired drug projects by incumbent firms are less likely to be developed when they overlap with the acquirer’s existing product portfolio. This is especially the case when the incumbent’s market power is large because of weak competition or patent protection. The authors conclude that about 6% of acquisitions in their sample are killer acquisitions. These acquisitions usually escape antitrust scrutiny as they are often below the revenue notification threshold that would make authorities likely to investigate. Comparing the pharmaceutical and digital industries, it is important to note that pharmaceutical markets have a clearer structure and better information flow regarding who the potential competitor might be (Cabral, 2020). Therapeutic markets are reasonably well defined. In addition, heavy regulation of drug development provides information to authorities related to the products as well as the agreements made across the production and distribution of drugs (eg the length and the validity of patent protection) and the relationship between generic and name brand manufacturers. 18 For additional theories of harm in specific environments see Motta and Peitz (2020). Here we keep the analysis of theories of harm in a general setting. 18
In digital markets, information structures and the identification of potential competitors can be much more difficult to ascertain—but not impossible. The development of market analytic techniques allows observers to closely monitor market trends and identify firms that are growing relatively fast in the same or in closely adjacent markets to ones where big incumbent platforms operate. For example, the UK parliamentary inquiry19 revealed that: “Facebook used Onavo to conduct global surveys of the usage of mobile apps by customers, and apparently without their knowledge. They used this data to assess not just how many people had downloaded apps, but how often they used them. This knowledge helped them to decide which companies to acquire, and which to treat as a threat.” Big platforms are more likely to have such insights than the authorities responsible for assessing the market impact of mergers. This information asymmetry has made it more difficult for competition authorities to assign a killer acquisition motive in M&A activities. Acquisitions that only involve talent acquisition (acquihire) can also be relevant to this theory of harm. Big platforms can acquire the talent from their competitors or potential competitors (with highly substitutable technologies) in order to protect their market position and eliminate the market competition threat. This does not mean that all mergers that only involve specialised human capital acquisitions are motivated by such strategic and anticompetitive motives. Especially, when they occur across the vertical value chain or when the acquired firm is not a competitor/potential competitor. Then, they can be linked with the efforts for a more efficient vertical integration of new functionalities with a parallel improvement of the management structure of the acquired firms. A second theory of harm has to do with the impact of M&A on small firms operating in related markets. Empirical evidence from Koski et al (2020) and Kamepalli et al (2020) showed that big technology firm acquisitions can create a so-called “kill-zone” effect. Namely, these studies have found that technology giants’ buyouts subsequently reduced market entry rates and decreased the supply of venture capital funding and investment available to start-ups that operate in the target product markets of tech giants’ acquisitions. The intuition for this result is two-fold: First, once a big tech firm has acquired a start-up in a specific, closely adjacent, complementary or conglomerate market, then this has a negative effect on other small firms in that market because they find it harder to compete with the technology giant. This occurs because of economic forces such as network effects, 19 https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-committees/culture-media-and-sport/Note- by-Chair-and-selected-documents-ordered-from-Six4Three.pdf. 19
economies of scale, and data-driven economies of scope that are significant in big platform markets. When the technology giants enter, in this case through acquisitions, venture capitalists do not find it attractive to continue to invest in small firms in those markets (or potential entrants in those markets) as they feel that it is more difficult for their investment to pay off. Small firms and potential entrants are subsequently more constrained in investing in product solutions that can help them to enter and efficiently compete in the market. Second, many small firms launch their business and innovate with the purpose of becoming acquired by bigger firms with terms that are profitable for their investors. This is particularly true in digital markets. Pay out from acquisition provides the initial impetus to invest. For small digital firms, it is a sign of great success to be bought by a big technology firm. So, keeping the “acquisition dream” alive can have a significant impact on entrepreneurship and can be associated with more innovation and therefore with greater social value. But, once one of these firms is acquired by a big technology firm, the probability of acquisition for another small entrant that operates in the market decreases. There is a significant first mover advantage, and when the “winner” is selected by a big tech firm, it is harder for the remaining firms in the market to continue their business operations unaffected. Dynamic concerns can also arise when a M&A strategy of one firm is affected by the M&A strategy of its competitors. In this case, counterfactual analysis can give rise to new theories of harm. For example, following Nocke and Whinston (2013), let Platform A acquire a firm. If, in the absence of this merger, Platform B would have acquired the same firm, then it is relevant to assess the consumer welfare under the former and latter mergers rather than as a standalone firm. If, under alternate acquirer B, consumer welfare is higher, then the merger with platform A is undesirable. This suggests that there may be a pre-emption game in which firms race to propose a merger first. If the counterfactual analysis suggests that, if the merger is not approved, a welfare-enhancing merger deal will follow, then the first merger reduces welfare. Bryan and Hovenkamp (2020) make a similar point. In a model with differentiated products, they show that an acquisition by a stronger potential acquirer prevents its rival from obtaining access to a new technology developed by the target firm. Thus, its motivation for the acquisition may be to exclude a weaker rival from gaining access to the target's technology, which may endanger the long-term viability of the rival. 20
Moreover, platform envelopment (Eisenmann et al, 2011; Condorelli and Padilla, 2020) has important dynamic implications that can lead to market foreclosure: Through envelopment, a big service provider in one platform market can merge with a firm that operates in another market and combine its own functionality with that of the acquired entity in a multi-platform bundle that leverages shared user relationships. In this way, platform envelopers capture market share in the new market by foreclosing the incumbent/competitors access to users. Hence, platform envelopment relies on network effects and leveraging market power from one market to the other, increasing in this way their market prominence across different markets. Moving ahead in our framework, we now consider the case of a horizontal merger20 between two platforms that serve consumers at a price of zero. Such pricing is often observed in two-sided networks where platforms can internalise network effects that cross different types of users (Rochet and Tirole, 2003; Parker and Van Alstyne, 2005) increasing the value created. However, the merged entity may be able to extract higher surplus from the side of the market that joins the platform to interact with consumers. Examples include advertisers, developers, and third-party producers. Platforms typically adopt monetisation strategies that allow them to receive a payment for the interactions they facilitate. An advertiser, for example, has to pay a per interaction fee to the platform to interact with consumers. If the merged entity is able, through increased market power, to charge a larger fee to the advertiser, it is very likely that part of this fee will increase the price of the advertiser’s product paid by consumers on the other side of the platform market. So, the ability of the platform to extract higher surplus at the production side can create a competitive bottleneck (Armstrong, 2006) that leads indirectly to higher prices on the consumption side, thus decreasing consumer welfare. As the horizontal merger reduces competition in the production side and business users have fewer options to multihome, the merged entity is able to extract greater share of surplus in the upstream side by increasing prices imposed on business users. On conglomerate mergers, it should be noted that they can incorporate efficiency gains through one- stop shopping (Klemperer and Padilla, 1997). Consumers, by visiting the merged entity’s shop, can consume the bundle of products they want. They do not have to visit different providers for each of the standalone products they wish to consume. But, efficiencies can also exist in the supply side by the integration of additional functionalities on platform’s infrastructures as already discussed. However, overall welfare implications depend on the degree of product differentiation and the magnitude of 20 The insights from non-platform markets can also be relevant to the evaluation of horizontal mergers and provide other potential theories of harm that should be properly assessed. See for example, the analysis of Farrell and Shapiro (1990, 2010), Barros and Cabral (1994) and Federico et al (2017, 2018). 21
search costs. For example, Rhodes and Zhou (2019) study single-product firms that supply different products and can merge to form a multiproduct firm. They model demand as consumers who wish to buy multiple products and, due to search frictions, value the one-stop shopping convenience associated with a multiproduct firm. They find that, when search frictions are relatively low, the equilibrium market structure is asymmetric, with different retail formats coexisting. This allows firms to better segment the market and, as such, typically leads to a weak price competition with negative welfare implications for consumers. Vertical mergers can generate additional concerns that eventually lead to market foreclosure21. When a dominant platform merges with a supplier of services, then it may offer preferential access for this supplier to the demand side, restricting consumers’ options as a result. At the same time, it may use the data and information it collects from external suppliers that participate in its ecosystem to the benefit of its own subsidiary when it designs its upstream selling strategies and products. In both cases, the playing field in the upstream market is distorted as the platform leverages its role as an intermediary to gain market power in the upstream market. Such distortions of competition may even lead to market foreclosure when big platforms enjoy a significant data advantage and network effects are prominent. Specific strategies with potential anticompetitive functions include self-preferencing, tying and bundling practices as well as disproportionate access rules and platform participation fees. 5 Regulation and merger policy in the digital age According to ex-post competition policy enforcement, theories of harm in each of the three broad categories should be compared to the efficiency gains and value creation that are achieved through proposed mergers following a case-by-case analysis. Following Parker et al (2020), this paper follows an alternative path of ex-ante regulation with a parallel proper adjustment of antitrust tools. In digital ecosystems, created value can be related to significant economies of scale, data driven economies of scope (eg economies of scope in data aggregation) and an increase in the value derived through network effects22. The same forces that generate competition concerns can also create value. Our main focus in the analysis that follows is to develop regulatory 21 See for example Comanor (1967), Sallinger (1994), Chen (2001) and Rey and Tirole (2007) for antitrust analysis of vertical mergers in “traditional” markets. 22 See relevant discussion in the introduction. 22
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