Oregon's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010
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Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories The following agencies collaborated on this technical report: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality Oregon Department of Energy Oregon Department of Transportation July 18, 2013
Alternative formats (Braille, large type) of this document can be made available. Contact DEQ’s Office of Communications & Outreach, Portland, at (503) 229-5696, or toll-free in Oregon at 1-800-452-4011, ext. 5696.
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Contacts
Oregon Department of Environmental Quality
503-229-5696, Toll free in Oregon: 800-452-4011
Colin McConnaha: mcconnaha.colin@deq.state.or.us
David Allaway: allaway.david@deq.state.or.us
Oregon Department of Energy
503-378-4035, Toll free in Oregon: 800-221-8035
Bill Drumheller: bill.drumheller@odoe.state.or.us
Oregon Department of Transportation
503-986-4103
Brian Dunn: brian.g.dunn@odot.state.or.us
Acknowledgments
Production of this technical report was a joint effort of the Oregon Department of Energy,
Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, and Oregon Department of Transportation, with
contributions from several additional organizations.
Report authors:
• Colin McConnaha and David Allaway, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality
• Bill Drumheller, Oregon Department of Energy
• Brian Gregor, Oregon Department of Transportation
Additional contributors include:
• Andrea Curtis, Jordan Palmeri, John Mathews, Peter Spendelow, and Loretta Pickerell,
Oregon Department of Environmental Quality
• Robbie Andrew and Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environmental
Research in Oslo
• Perry Lindstrom, U.S. Energy Information Administration
• Leif Hockstad and Andrea Denny, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• Ramón Bueno, Stockholm Environment Institute
• Andrew Yost, Oregon Department of Forestry
• Stephanie Page, Oregon Department of Agriculture
• David Turner, Mark Harmon, and Beverly Law, Oregon State University
Numerous Oregon businesses, associations, organizations, and other interested parties have
made valuable contributions through participation in advisory groups, committees, technical
reviews, and stakeholder processes that have been integral to all of these inventory efforts.
Their input has been greatly appreciated.Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Table of Contents
Executive summary ....................................................................................................................... 1
Findings..................................................................................................................................... 1
In-boundary inventory .......................................................................................................... 2
Consumption-based inventory .............................................................................................. 2
Expanded transportation sector inventory ............................................................................ 3
Comparison of results ........................................................................................................... 5
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 6
CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories .............................................. 7
1. Overview ........................................................................................................................... 7
2. Why inventory emissions? ................................................................................................ 7
3. Greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon.............................................................................. 8
4. Why have multiple inventories? ..................................................................................... 10
CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electricity use emissions inventory ................................... 13
1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 13
2. In-boundary emissions .................................................................................................... 14
Transportation sector emissions.......................................................................................... 16
Residential and commercial emissions ............................................................................... 17
Industrial emissions ............................................................................................................ 19
In-state electricity generation.............................................................................................. 21
Agriculture emissions ......................................................................................................... 22
Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the “net inventory” framework ........................ 23
3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 24
Electricity end use ............................................................................................................... 24
Emissions per capita ........................................................................................................... 26
CHAPTER THREE: Consumption-based emissions inventory ................................................. 29
1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 29
Classification of emissions ................................................................................................. 30
2. Consumption-based emissions ........................................................................................ 33
Changes in consumption-based emissions from 2005 to 2010 ........................................... 35
3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 38
Emissions by life-cycle phase and subcategory .................................................................. 38
Emissions by location ......................................................................................................... 42
Emissions by type of consumer and household income ..................................................... 43
Emissions intensities ........................................................................................................... 45
Emissions intensities by production location ...................................................................... 47
Emissions by consuming vs. producing sectors .................................................................. 48
CHAPTER FOUR: Expanded transportation sector emissions inventory .................................. 50
1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 50
2. Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle travel .............................................. 54Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories 3. Freight ............................................................................................................................. 58 4. Air Passenger .................................................................................................................. 60 CHAPTER FIVE: Comparison of the emissions inventories ..................................................... 62 1. Comparing In-Boundary and Consumption-Based Emissions........................................ 62 2. Comparing Transportation-Related Emissions ............................................................... 63 3. Calculating a “grand total” of emissions......................................................................... 63 4. Change in emissions over time ....................................................................................... 64 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix A: Data sources for the in-boundary inventory .......................................................... 66 Appendix B: Methodology for the consumption-based inventory.............................................. 67 Appendix C: STS approach to estimating transportation emissions ........................................... 68
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Executive summary
This report is a joint effort of the Oregon Departments of Energy (ODOE), Environmental Quality
(ODEQ), and Transportation (ODOT) to provide a comprehensive and multi-faceted inventory of
Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions. Inventorying emissions is a necessary step for tracking progress
toward legislatively adopted goals for arresting emissions growth by 2010 and reducing Oregon’s
emissions to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 75 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
This report represents the next step in the evolution of greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon by including
two important changes to inventories performed in previous years.
The first major change is the use of data reported directly to the state via the Oregon Greenhouse Gas
Reporting Program. For 2010, the in-boundary inventory changes from an entirely "top down" modeling
estimate to a primarily "bottom up" aggregation of reported data from the emission sources themselves.
These reported emissions data are derived from actual fuel volumes and electricity supplied in Oregon
reported by the state’s fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The reported data also include emissions
calculated by the state’s largest industrial emitters.
The second change is the inclusion in this report of three separate inventories:
1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associated
with the use of electricity within Oregon. This inventory is similar to those prepared by many
other states. Emissions collected in this inventory come from the combustion of fuel used in
Oregon, the processing and disposal of waste, the generation and transmission of electricity used
in Oregon, and agricultural and industrial operations.
2. Consumption-based emissions: Global emissions associated with satisfying Oregon’s
consumption of goods and services, including energy. This inventory includes global emissions
associated with the wide range of “stuff” that Oregonians purchase, including food, vehicles,
appliances, furnishings, and electronics, as well as services, fuels and electricity.
3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the emissions associated with
travel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement. This expanded evaluation of
transportation emissions encompasses life-cycle emissions from fuel use by ground and
commercial vehicle travel, freight movement of in-bound goods by all other modes of
transportation (heavy trucks, railroads, ships, airplanes, and pipelines), and air passenger travel.
This report has been prepared to improve our understanding of how Oregon and Oregonians contribute to
global emissions of greenhouse gases, the sources and activities causing the emissions, and how the
emissions have changed (or not) in recent years. No single approach to inventorying these emissions is
necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, and
governments contribute to emissions - and by extension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - span
nearly all activities that Oregonians engage in. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state, and
as a consequence of both production and consumption. No single accounting method adequately captures
all of the emissions. Considering all three inventory approaches together presents a more comprehensive
perspective of how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and provides a more complete
understanding of possible methods for reducing these emissions.
Findings
Following are results from the three inventories; they are initially presented separately, and then
compared.
1Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
In-boundary inventory
Figure ES.1 summarizes the results of the in-boundary inventory. This inventory has been developed with
data from 1990 through 2010, and illustrates how the state’s emissions have changed during this period
within four primary sectors. Transportation has remained the largest contributor to the state’s in-boundary
emissions (22.6 million metric tons CO2 equivalent, or million MTCO2e in 2010), however emissions
from the residential and commercial sector have grown to similar levels in recent years (22.3 million
MTCO2e in 2010). Overall, emissions have declined since 2007, led by reduced emissions from the
industrial and transportation sectors.
Figure ES.1
Oregon in-boundary emissions by sector, 1990 - 2010
80
70
60
Million MTCO2e
50
40
30 Agriculture
Industrial
20
Residential & Commercial
10
Transportation
0
Consumption-based inventory
Emissions from the consumption-based inventory are only available for 2005 and 2010. Table ES.1
shows emissions by 16 commodity types across three life-cycle stages. The data from this inventory show
essentially no change in total emissions from Oregonian’s consumption, though there are some shifts
between the commodity types. Just three broad commodity types represent half of all consumption-based
emissions: vehicles and parts (19 percent), appliances (16 percent), and food and beverages (14 percent).
Emissions associated with vehicles and appliances are mostly from their use (e.g. fuel and electricity). In
contrast, emissions associated with food are primarily related to production.
2Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Table ES.1
Oregon consumption-based emissions, by category, 2005 and 2010
(Million MTCO2e)
2005 2010
Pre- Pre-
purchase Use* Disposal Total purchase Use* Disposal Total
Vehicles and parts 2.6 13.0Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Figure ES.2
Transportation sector emissions, 1990 and 2010
35
30 Air
Passenger
Million MTCO2e
25
20 Freight
15
10 Ground
Pass. &
5 Comm.
Serv.
0
1990 2010
Figure ES.3
Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle emissions, 1990, 2005 and 2010
(Million MTCO2e)
Per-capita emissions
(metric tons CO2e)
Population
(millions)
Total emissions
(million metric tons CO2e)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
2010 2005 1990
Figure ES.3 shows that per-capita emissions from ground passenger and commercial service vehicle
travel have declined from 4.6 metric tons per person in 1990 to 3.7 tons in 2010. During this same period,
population grew from 2.9 million to 3.8 million. From 2005 to 2010, lower per-capita emissions as a
result of both improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled more than
offset population growth and resulted in a reduction in overall ground transportation emissions from
Oregon households and businesses, although these remain higher than 1990 emissions.
4Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Comparison of results
The three inventories employ significantly different accounting approaches that encompass distinct
emission sources and accordingly produce different characterizations of Oregon’s emissions. Given the
different scopes and data sources used by these inventories, it is helpful to understand the areas of overlap
between them and the emissions sources uniquely captured by each.
Figure ES.4
Comparison of the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories (2010)
Figure ES.4 illustrates how much the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories account for the
same emissions (albeit using different data sources and methods), and the emissions uniquely accounted
for in each inventory. In-boundary emissions for 2010 were 62.8 million MTCO2e. Consumption-based
emissions were higher, at 74.7 million MTCO2e. Together, these two inventories account for a much
larger amount – approximately 102.9 million MTCO2e. Emissions shared between these two inventories
include approximately 34.5 million MTCO2e. These include emissions from household use of fuels and
electricity, as well as in-state production of goods and services that are purchased by Oregon households
and governments.
The in-boundary inventory includes 28.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the consumption-based
inventory. This is primarily the in-state emissions (plus emissions from electricity use) associated with
production of commercial, industrial, and agricultural goods and services that are exported.
The consumption-based inventory includes 40.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the in-boundary
inventory. These emissions occur in other states and nations producing goods and services that are
ultimately consumed by Oregon households and government, and certain business purchases. These
emissions also include the out-of-state “fuel cycle” (pre-combustion or well-to-pump) emissions
associated with producing purchased electricity and fuels.
The expanded transportation sector inventory captures the most transport-related emissions (31.2 million
MTCO2e in 2010). Like the consumption-based inventory, these emissions include the full life cycle of
fuels and the emissions from Oregonians even when they travel out-of-state. However, the expanded
transportation inventory follows both households and businesses, while the consumption-based inventory
excludes most business travel.
5Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Conclusion Emissions in the in-boundary inventory declined approximately eight percent between 2005 and 2010, while the consumption-based inventory shows no change between these years, even as population grew. As described above, improvements in vehicle efficiency and reduction in per-capita travel by light-duty vehicles have resulted in a recent decline in emissions from passenger vehicles, while emissions from the freight and air travel market segments have increased. Oregon’s legislated greenhouse gas reduction goal for 2010 is to arrest emissions growth and to begin reducing emissions. These inventories demonstrate that for recent years, regardless of the inventory approach utilized, the 2010 greenhouse gas emission reduction goal of arresting emissions growth has been met. Future inventories will determine if Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions decline toward the 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction goals the state has established. 6
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories
1. Overview
This technical report provides Oregon greenhouse gas emissions data for 2010 and previous years in three
separate inventories:
1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associated
with the use of electricity within Oregon. Information on carbon sequestration is also included.
2. Consumption-based emissions: World-wide emissions associated with satisfying Oregon’s’
consumption of goods and services, including energy.
3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the “well to wheels”
emissions associated with travel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement.
Understanding how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions is an important element in evaluating
how emissions are changing over time, and how they could be reduced. Oregon residents, businesses, and
government contribute to emissions in many different ways. By providing these three perspectives
together for the first time, this report offers the most complete picture to date of how Oregon and
Oregonians contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Why inventory emissions?
Inventorying greenhouse gas emissions is a necessary step in understanding how Oregonians contribute to
climate change, how these emissions change over time, and what actions could reduce emissions.
Several state policies also direct Oregon’s state government to evaluate greenhouse gas emissions. In
1992, Oregon adopted a benchmark to hold carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels. This benchmark was
part of the state’s overall efforts to quantify progress toward a wide variety of goals, including Oregon’s
environment. More recently, the 2007 Oregon Legislature adopted greenhouse gas reduction goals and
established Oregon’s policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The goals as set forth in ORS 468A.205
include the following emission reduction targets:
• By 2010, Oregon will arrest the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and begin to reduce emissions,
• By 2020, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are 10 percent below 1990 levels, and
• By 2050, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are at least 75 percent below 1990 levels.
Developing greenhouse gas emission inventories allows Oregonians to track progress toward these goals.
The 2007 Oregon Legislature also established the Oregon Global Warming Commission through House
Bill 3543, and directed state agencies to provide support to the Commission. The Commission has
indicated on numerous occasions - including in its Interim Roadmap to 2020 and 2011 Report to the
Legislature - that emissions inventories should be periodically updated in order to inform rigorous
analysis and to track progress toward the emissions reduction goals.
In 2010, the Oregon Legislature adopted a requirement that a statewide transportation strategy be
developed “to aid in achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals set forth in ORS 468A.205.”
ODOT worked extensively with transportation stakeholders including state, regional and local
governments, other state agencies, business, and advocacy groups to develop a vision of what it will take
7Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories to substantially reduce transportation sector emissions and to identify promising strategies for moving forward to meet the vision. The first phase of the strategy development process was completed on March 20, 2013 with the acceptance of the Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction1 (STS) by the Oregon Transportation Commission. Oregon's Environmental Quality Commission has also demonstrated interest in greenhouse gas accounting and inventories. The commission adopted rules requiring reporting of emissions from a variety of industrial and commercial sources and from suppliers of fuels and electricity. The rules established the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program that is implemented by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The Commission also adopted Materials Management in Oregon: 2050 Vision and Framework for Action which calls for periodic updates to Oregon's consumption-based emissions inventory. The consumption-based inventory is also developed by DEQ. In addition, the 2009 Jobs and Transportation Act and SB 1059 (2010) required the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) to establish light-duty vehicle GHG emissions reduction targets for all metropolitan areas of the state. These laws required DEQ, the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE), and the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to develop the technical analysis for supporting LCDC rulemaking. 3. Greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon Oregon has inventoried greenhouse gases for over 20 years, and has contributed to several innovations in greenhouse gas inventories at the state level, as new data sources and estimation methodologies are developed, and new policy and evaluation needs are identified. Initially, Oregon and other states were limited in the types of greenhouse gas data that they were able to collect, analyze, and use to prepare inventories. Emissions data that is measured or computed directly from emissions sources was historically available only for the largest power generation sources; this quantification method is called the “bottom up” approach. Oregon inventoried greenhouse gas emissions from other sources using estimation and modeling techniques called the "top down" approach. The top down approach uses techniques based on statewide energy use, industrial activity, and socioeconomic indicators, and appropriate emissions factors, to quantify emissions. The historic state inventories focused on sources of emissions located inside Oregon's borders. This approach draws on methods first set forth in 1994 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for use by nations in compiling official greenhouse gas inventories. The Panel’s methods serve as the official standards for nations to create inventories and track progress towards emission-reduction goals, such as those established in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency adapted these methods for voluntary use by U.S. states; EPA’s adaptation is called the State Inventory Tool (SIT), which Oregon uses for its “top down” inventory. A focus on emissions from in-boundary sources offers several advantages. At the global scale, consistent accounting by every nation of all in-boundary sources allows all national inventories to be summed into a global total without double-counting. Consistency between jurisdictions facilitates comparison and evaluation of changes in emissions over time. The in-boundary inventory allows us to compare the data over time within Oregon and in relation to other states. By focusing on emissions within the state, the in- boundary inventory highlights opportunities for reducing the production of greenhouse gases within 1 Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, Volume 1, March 2013. 8
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Oregon. These reductions can increase the energy efficiency of Oregon households and businesses and reduce Oregonians’ use of the most potent greenhouse gases. Oregon was one of the first states to expand its emissions inventory to include the emissions associated with the use of electricity in the state, whether the electricity was generated in Oregon or imported into Oregon from out of state. This approach enhances Oregon's ability to influence reductions in electricity- related emissions through both conservation (reducing use of electricity, regardless of where the power is generated) and clean energy initiatives such as the state's Renewable Portfolio Standard. Including imported electricity emissions has become increasingly common in accounting for electricity-related emissions at the state and local level.2 Washington and California also employ this practice. For the 2010 emissions year, more precise greenhouse gas emissions data is available for the in-boundary and electricity use inventory. Mandatory greenhouse gas reporting began in 2009 for major industrial emitters, and expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The mandatory reporting requirement is a new and important source of “bottom up” emissions data that enhances ongoing efforts to track Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, about 80 percent of emissions in the in-boundary and electricity use inventory come from data reported to the state directly from industrial emitters, fuel suppliers, and electric utilities. Integrating these new “bottom up” data with the “top down” data improves the accuracy and reliability of Oregon’s greenhouse gas inventory. Another new development is the use of different accounting frameworks, or inventories, coupled with the use of life-cycle accounting techniques, to better understand how Oregonians contribute to global emissions. Historically, inventories focused on estimating emissions at a single moment in time. However, the total carbon footprint of a product, and the cumulative impact of an action or policy, may be more accurately characterized if the emissions associated with the product or action over the course of time are counted, regardless of where the emissions occur. Unlike many other pollutants, greenhouse gases have global impacts. For example, Oregon households have the same impact on Oregon's climate if they burn a gallon of gas in Oregon or a gallon of gas while driving through another state. Extending Oregon’s inventories to include Oregonians’ out-of-state emissions is consistent with how Oregon accounts for electricity use. The trans-boundary approach is being applied in Oregon in two ways: accounting of emissions based on our consumption, and expanding our accounting of emissions from the transportation sector. Oregon's consumption-based inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with Oregon's consumption, defined in economic terms as "final demand" of goods and services (including energy) by Oregon households and government, as well as business capital and inventory formation. The consumption-based inventory primarily uses "top down" economic modeling, but with a very different geographic framework than the in-boundary emissions inventory. It accounts for emissions in Oregon only if they are associated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregon households, governments, and businesses. It also estimates emissions elsewhere in the world, but similarly only if they are associated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregonians. The consumption-based inventory offers a perspective on the carbon footprint of Oregonians, one that includes not only the emissions that occur in the state as a result of purchase and use decisions, but also those emissions occurring elsewhere, with a particular focus on emissions that are "imported" along with the products that we consume. This inventory helps design strategies that lower the carbon intensity of goods and services consumed by 2 While commonly referred to as a "consumption-based approach" to electricity emissions, it differs from the approach used in Oregon's full consumption-based inventory in two important regards. First, it only accounts for emissions at the point of electricity generation, whereas the consumption-based inventory described later in this report includes life-cycle emissions. Second, the in-boundary inventory includes emissions associated with all electricity used in Oregon, regardless of user, while the consumption-based inventory only counts the emissions associated with Oregon consumption, defined in economic terms as "final demand" by households and governments, which includes direct use of electricity by households and governments. 9
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Oregonians and create incentives for Oregon’s in- and out-of-state suppliers to shift to production
methods that reduce their carbon footprint.
The ODOT has developed a third accounting framework, one which expands our understanding of the
overall contribution of Oregonians’ travel to global greenhouse gas emissions. The expanded
transportation sector inventory divides transportation-related emissions into three travel market segments:
ground passenger and commercial service travel of Oregonians, air passenger travel of Oregonians, and
transportation of goods to destinations in Oregon. In the first two, it considers the worldwide, life-cycle
emissions associated with moving Oregon residents and employees of Oregon businesses and
governments. It shows impacts of travel decisions by Oregonians, regardless of where they travel. Such a
"demand-based" approach to modeling transportation impacts is increasingly common in community-
scale inventories. This third inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with all freight trips
that terminate in Oregon, regardless of where they originate. Again, life-cycle emissions ("well-to-
wheel") are considered. This approach shines more light on the movement of goods into Oregon that are
used both by households and businesses.
4. Why have multiple inventories?
Oregon's greenhouse gas inventories are used by many different parties and for a variety of purposes,
including identifying major sources of emissions, setting goals, identifying trends, tracking progress,
evaluating the emissions reduction potential of various policy options, and communicating to the public
how the state contributes to emissions. Multiple inventorying approaches help meet these different needs
and uses by providing a more comprehensive perspective on the state’s emissions.
The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, and governments contribute to emissions - and by
extension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - span nearly all activities that Oregonians engage
in. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state as a consequence of both production and
consumption. No single accounting method adequately captures all of the emissions, or even all of the
major sources of emissions. While both the in-boundary emissions inventory and the consumption-based
emissions inventory span multiple economic sectors, and both tell important stories, they also each, by
themselves, omit significant emissions associated with Oregon's economy. The expanded transportation
sector inventory offers a deeper dive into transportation-related emissions, but is silent on emissions in
other sectors of the economy (although transportation is inextricably linked to every economic sector of
activity).
Table 1.1 provides a summary of each of the three inventory frameworks and provides a high-level
comparison between them. Each framework is described in detail in subsequent sections of this report.
Table 1.1
Comparison of inventories
Expanded transportation
In-boundary Consumption-based sector
General In-state emissions and Globally-distributed emissions Life-cycle emissions
description the use of electricity in- associated with satisfying associated with travel by
state. Optional consumption (economic final Oregonians and in-bound
adjustments for in-state demand) by Oregon. freight travel.
electricity generation
and for sequestration.
Scope Economy-wide Economy-wide Transportation only
10Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
In-boundary Consumption-based Expanded
transportation sector
Data currently Annually since 1990 2005 and 2010 only 1990 and 2010, with
available some interim data
Treatment of Emissions from in-state Life cycle emissions of: 1) fuel Life cycle emissions of:
transportation use (sales) of used in vehicles by Oregon 1) Ground transport of
sector3 transportation fuels by households and government; 2) people by Oregon
all users (Oregonians, purchase of transport services households, businesses
pass-through travel); (e.g., air tickets) by Oregon and government; 2) air
combustion emissions households and government; 3) transport of Oregonians;
only (not life-cycle) all transportation emissions and 3) movement of
associated with the movement freight for trips
and supply chains of goods and terminating in Oregon.4
services consumed.
Treatment of Emissions at the points Worldwide life-cycle emissions Only included when
electric power of electric power of 1) electricity used directly by electricity is used for
sector generation for all Oregon households and transportation (e.g., light
electricity used in governments (but not rail) or in the production
Oregon. Separate businesses), and 2) all electricity of fuels used in
estimate of emissions used in the provision and supply transportation.
from in-state generation chains of goods and services
consumed by Oregon
Treatment of All other in-state Includes worldwide emissions of Not included
other sources sources are included 1) heating fuels used by Oregon
(e.g., heating fuels, households and governments; 2)
industrial process solid waste produced by Oregon
emissions, fertilizer and households and governments; 3)
landfill emissions) all other emissions from supply
chains of goods and services
consumed in Oregon
Inventory Historically "Top "Top Down" "Top Down"
approach Down", 2010 primarily
"Bottom Up"
Primary Energy efficiency in Lowering carbon intensity of Improving vehicles’ fuel
reduction households, businesses Oregonians’ frequently efficiency, reducing the
strategies that and industry, and consumed goods and services, carbon intensity of fuels,
affect this reducing fuel use in and informing businesses and and shifting travel to
inventory transportation governments how they can lower more carbon-efficient
their overall carbon footprint modes such as transit,
carpooling, biking, etc.
3
The consumption-based and expanded transportation sector inventories consider travel regardless of location
4
Specific to freight, the difference between consumption-based and expanded transportation sector emissions can be illustrated
by an example. Consider a bakery in Oregon that sells into both Oregon and surrounding markets. The bakery purchases flour
from a mill in Washington State, which in turn buys all of its grain from a farm in Oregon. The farm, in turn, purchases fertilizer
from a producer in Idaho. The expanded transportation approach would include all of the emissions associated with all trips that
terminate in Oregon, including transporting all of the fertilizer to Oregon (even if some of the resulting wheat were exported for
use in other states) and all of the flour to Oregon (even if some of the resulting bread were exported for use in other states).
Emissions from trips not terminating in Oregon would not be counted. In contrast, the consumption-based approach would count
all of the transportation emissions up the entire supply chain (flour from Washington to Oregon; grain from Oregon to
Washington; fertilizer from Idaho to Oregon; and so on) but only to the extent the flour (final input) is used by the bakery to
satisfy final consumption in Oregon. Whenever fuels are used, both approaches use life cycle ("well to wheels") emissions, that
is, the emissions not only from combustion of the fuels, but also extracting/growing, refining/producing, and transporting them.
11Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories No inventory method is necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. For example, the in-boundary inventory tells us about emissions within Oregon and from Oregonians’ statewide energy use, while the consumption-based inventory tells us about the emissions associated with the production, use and disposal of goods and services consumed by Oregonians. The in-boundary inventory tells us about nearly all in-state travel, including pass-through travel, while the consumption-based and expanded transportation sector inventories each offer more (but different) detail on vehicle and air travel by Oregonians, and the emissions of inbound freight. Each inventory shows unique information, despite substantial overlap between the data.5 Considering all three inventory approaches together provides a more comprehensive picture of how Oregon contributes to emissions and presents a more comprehensive understanding of potential solutions. 5 The overlap between inventories means that total emissions as estimated in each of the three approaches cannot simply be added to each other to produce a "grand total". Doing so would result in significant double- or even triple-counting. Chapter 5 discusses this in more detail. 12
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electricity use emissions inventory 1. Inventory overview Oregon’s in-boundary and electricity use inventory estimates greenhouse gas emissions that occur within the state’s jurisdictional boundary and that are associated with the generation of electricity used by Oregonians within that boundary. This inventory includes emissions from the combustion of fuel used in Oregon, the processing and disposal of waste and other materials, the generation and transmission of electricity used in Oregon, agricultural and industrial operations, and as a result of a variety of other processes. Most of these emissions occur within the state, though some electricity used by Oregonians is generated out of state, and the emissions from this out of state generation are included in this inventory. Similarly, emissions from electricity generation occurring in Oregon that is used out of state are presented separately and not included in the statewide emission totals of this inventory. This inventory may be especially helpful to policy makers at the state, regional and local levels as they seek to identify and prioritize strategies to reduce emissions from in-state activities and from electricity use. In addition, the inventory may help measure the efficacy of those emission reduction strategies put into place. The inventory also helps to communicate how each sector in Oregon contributes to emissions in the state, with a focus on emissions from in-state energy use and industrial activities. The 2010 in-boundary inventory was conducted by ODOE and DEQ using data collected by DEQ through the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, output and analysis generated by ODOE using the US EPA State Inventory Tool (SIT), and other estimates generated by DEQ. Greenhouse gas emissions reported to DEQ represent a new source of “bottom up” emissions data that improve the accuracy of efforts to track Oregon’s greenhouse gas emissions. The data reported to DEQ includes actual fuel volumes and electricity supplied in Oregon and emissions from industrial facilities. The reported data were integrated with the “top down” inventory data that ODOE has historically compiled using the SIT, creating a combined “bottom up” and “top down” inventory for 2010. The “top down” inventory is based on a wide range of modeling, estimation, and quantification techniques using energy, agricultural, waste, and socioeconomic data. Integrating the two approaches provides a more comprehensive inventory because it contains estimation and modeling of emissions in certain sectors not fully covered by the reported data. For example, emissions from agricultural activities are not reported to DEQ, but are provided through the inventory work done by ODOE using statistics from the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the modeling tools available through the SIT. Finally, all of the historical data from 1990 to 2009, which is derived largely from the SIT and custom analysis work done at both ODOE and DEQ, was combined with the 2010 data to create a complete time series of greenhouse gas emissions data from 1990 through 2010. DEQ’s mandatory greenhouse gas reporting rules are contained in Oregon Administrative Rules chapter 340 division 215. The reporting program took effect in 2009 by requiring reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from certain industrial facilities with emissions over 2,500 MTCO2e. Most of these facilities report emissions from onsite fuel combustion and some facilities report emissions from industrial processes such as cement production and pulp and paper manufacturing. DEQ’s greenhouse gas reporting program expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities. Companies that distribute gasoline, diesel and aircraft fuels in Oregon report the fuel they supply and the greenhouse gas emissions that resulted from the combustion of this fuel. Similarly, natural gas suppliers report the volume of natural gas provided to Oregon end users and the emissions that resulted from the combustion of this gas. These emissions from fuel suppliers are calculated using emission factors described in EPA’s federal greenhouse gas reporting rule. 13
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Electric utilities report to DEQ the amount of electricity they supply to Oregonians and estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the generation of this electricity. Emissions from generation are calculated based on the generating fuel type and facility characteristics when this information is known. Utilities use DEQ’s default emission factor to estimate emissions if the generating fuel type isn’t known, such as for market purchases made by the utility. Emissions data that are not available from the greenhouse gas reporting program are primarily obtained from the SIT and from sector-specific analysis performed at ODOE and DEQ. The SIT represents a state- level representation of the national greenhouse gas inventory completed by EPA for the United States in accordance with its international obligations. Where possible or practical the SIT uses the same data sources and methodologies as the EPA’s federal inventory to estimate state-level emissions, although often with emission or activity factors that have been specifically tailored for individual states. For the majority of emission categories, especially those that are energy-related, excellent data and factors are available from the tool. However, for other emission categories, especially for industrial processes and agricultural activities, the tool must rely on broader estimation techniques. In those few cases where state- level data are largely absent the tool will estimate emissions by taking the emission totals from the national inventory and prorating those emissions based on population or some activity factor, like economic activity. More commonly some state-level data will be available, such as material inputs into a production process, and emissions can be calculated by combining those data with an emissions factor derived from the national inventory. In order to use the highest quality data for the 2010 inventory, data from the Oregon greenhouse gas reporting program is integrated with either the SIT or analysis done at ODOE or DEQ. Roughly 80 percent of the total emissions in the 2010 inventory are derived from the Oregon greenhouse gas reporting program. In a few cases the reported data from this program were judged likely to be incomplete based on historical estimates. In those cases the SIT data were used, although future revisions of the inventory may provide an opportunity for the reported data to be used once they can be verified to be complete and accurate. A detailed accounting of the origin of each emission category in the in-boundary emission inventory can be found in Appendix A. Finally, the calculated greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to one of four key economic sectors – Transportation, Residential & Commercial, Industrial, and Agriculture. Attribution of emission categories to each sector is based on EPA’s similar sector-level reporting process in the national inventory. To the extent possible the EPA model is followed, although in some cases there are not state-level data that can be applied in the same way (e.g., there are no state-level data available for electricity consumption at the farm level). For energy emission categories that apply across multiple sectors, and for which only a single estimate exists from the reported data, the data are attributed to sectors based on the proportion of consumption in each sector as found in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) State Energy Data System for the same category. A variety of other assumptions are made to facilitate the sector assignment process. Details on these assumptions can be found in the national inventory (Box 2-1)6 and in Appendix A of this report. 2. In-boundary emissions Following is a discussion of the 2010 inventory, how it compares with prior years, and how the new reported data differ from the modeled estimates. First, we compare key economic sectors and their trends in recent years, and then we examine the sectors in greater detail. ODOE has developed the in-boundary 6 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2011, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-13- 001, 2013. 14
Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
inventories for Oregon from 1990 through 2009. This 2010 inventory is the first to use the data reported
to DEQ’s greenhouse gas reporting program as the primary basis for measuring emissions.
Emissions in the 2010 in-boundary inventory are slightly lower than estimates of 2009 emissions, though
the relative contributions of the state’s economic sectors are similar to previous years.
Table 2.1
Oregon emissions by sector, 1990 – 2010
(Million MTCO2e)
Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Transportation 21.0 22.5 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 24.2 24.0 22.6
Residential & commercial 16.3 19.7 22.9 23.7 22.4 24.1 24.1 23.4 22.3
Industrial 14.1 16.9 18.1 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.0 12.4 12.4
Agriculture 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.4
Total 56.2 64.4 70.3 68.3 67.6 69.9 67.6 64.8 62.8
Table 2.1 summarizes greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors since 1990. Transportation remains
the largest contributor to the state’s in-boundary emissions, closely followed by residential and
commercial activities. The industrial sector is the third largest contributor, with about half the emissions
associated with the transportation or the residential and commercial sectors. Finally, agricultural activity
is a distant fourth. Overall, emissions have declined approximately eight percent or 5.5 million MTCO2e
between 2005 and 2010.
Figure 2.1
Oregon emissions by sector, 1990 - 2010
80
70
60
Million MTCO2e
50
40
Agriculture
30
Industrial
20
Residential & Commercial
10
Transportation
0
Figure 2.1 illustrates how the state’s emissions have changed in each economic sector since 1990.
Emissions from agriculture have been somewhat constant, at slightly above 5 million MTCO2e each year.
The transportation sector has fluctuated just above 20 million MTCO2e, while the residential and
15Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
commercial sector has grown from approximately 16 million MTCO2e in the early 1990s to over 20
million MTCO2e in 2000, and remained somewhat constant from 2000 to 2010. The industrial sector’s
emissions rose gradually through the 1990s to a peak in 1999 of 19.3 million MTCO2e, and declined most
years since then, and were just 12.4 million MTCO2e in 2010.
Figure 2.2
Oregon emissions by greenhouse gas type
80
70
60
Million MTCO2e
50
40
High Global Warming Potential Gases
30
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
20
Methane (CH4)
10
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
0
Figure 2.2 illustrates how the state’s emissions have changed since 1990 by the relative contribution of
each greenhouse gas type. The relative contributions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
been somewhat constant, comprising 82.6 percent, 9 percent and 5 percent of the total emissions in 2010,
respectively. High global warming potential gases, composed of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) have risen from about one percent of the state’s
emissions in the early 1990s to over three percent in 2010. This increase can be partially accounted for by
the rise of the electronics manufacturing industry in Oregon and the increased use of air conditioning in
Oregon.
Transportation sector emissions
Emissions attributed to transportation are primarily from fuel used by on-road vehicles, including
passenger cars and trucks, as well as freight and commercial vehicles. This sector also includes aviation
fuel and off-road transportation such as farm vehicles, locomotives, and boats.
16Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:
In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories
Figure 2.3
Oregon emissions from transportation fuel use
30
25
20
Million MTCO2e
15
Non CO2 gases
Other fuels
10
Aviation fuels
Diesel & residuals
5
Gasoline
0
Figure 2.3 illustrates how the state’s emissions from transportation fuel have changed since 1990 by the
relative contribution of each fuel type. Non CO2 gases include methane and nitrous oxide that are by-
products of fuel combustion and fluorinated gases with high global warming potential from air
conditioning and other auxiliary systems on vehicles. The other fuels category includes propane, natural
gas, lubricant emissions and electricity. Aviation fuels include kerosene jet fuel, aviation-grade gasoline,
and naphtha jet fuel. Diesel & residuals include all distillate and residual fuels used for transportation.
Total emissions from transportation have changed modestly between 1990 and 2010. During this period,
emissions peaked in 2007 at 25.7 million MTCO2e, and have since declined 12 percent to 22.6 million
MTCO2e. It is important to note the shift in fuel proportions from 2009 to 2010 for gasoline and diesel
fuels. The 2010 data are from reports by companies that supply fuel in Oregon, while the 2009 data are
estimates from EPA’s State Inventory Tool based on data from the EIA. The reported data show an
increase in emissions from gasoline use from the 12.7 million MTCO2e estimated by EPA’s SIT model
for 2009 to 13.9 million MTCO2e in 2010. Conversely, the reported data show a decrease in emissions
from diesel use from 6.5 million MTCO2e estimated by the SIT for 2009 to 5.0 million MTCO2e in 2010.
The reported data should be more accurate than estimates from SIT, but it’s possible that some of the
changes in emissions from 2009 to 2010 are partly due to changes in methodology, from “top down”
quantification techniques to “bottom up” reported data. DEQ is working to ensure companies report fuel
volumes and emissions correctly. If DEQ discovers changes to the reported data or ways to improve the
accuracy of the data, it will update the values in this inventory.
Residential and commercial emissions
Emissions from residential and commercial activities come primarily from generation of electricity and
natural gas combustion to meet the energy demand from this sector. Other sources of emissions from this
sector include small amounts of petroleum fuels burned primarily for heating, decomposition of waste in
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