Only Familiar Information is a "Curse": Children's Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know
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Child Development, January/February 2021, Volume 92, Number 1, Pages 54–75 Only Familiar Information is a “Curse”: Children’s Ability to Predict What Their Peers Know Siba Ghrear , Klint Fung, Taeh Haddock, and Susan A.J. Birch University of British Columbia The ability to make inferences about what one’s peers know is critical for social interaction and communica- tion. Three experiments (n = 309) examined the curse of knowledge, the tendency to be biased by one’s knowledge when reasoning about others’ knowledge, in children’s estimates of their peers’ knowledge. Four- to 7-year-olds were taught the answers to factual questions and estimated how many peers would know the answers. When children learned familiar answers, they showed a curse of knowledge in their peer estimates. But, when children learned unfamiliar answers to the same questions, they did not show a curse of knowl- edge. These data shed light on the mechanisms underlying perspective taking, supporting a fluency misattri- bution account of the curse of knowledge. The capacity to infer and reason about other peo- Loewenstein, & Weber, 1989), refers to the tendency ple’s perspectives is essential for social well-being to be biased by one’s current knowledge (or belief) and efficient communication. There are vast indi- when reasoning about a less informed perspective. vidual differences in this capacity, whereby more Different manifestations of this bias have received accurate perspective taking is associated with many various names in the literature, including: “hind- positive outcomes (e.g., fewer relationship prob- sight bias” (Bernstein, Aßfalg, Kumar, & Ackerman, lems, higher academic achievement, more prosocial 2016), “creeping determinism” (see Fischhoff, 1975), behaviour; Caputi, Lecce, Pagnin, & Banerjee, 2012; the “knew-it-all-along effect” (e.g., Wood, 1978), Fink, Begeer, Peterson, Slaughter, & de Rosnay, “adult egocentrism” (e.g., Royzman, Cassidy, & 2015; Lecce, Caputi, Pagnin, & Banerjee, 2017; Baron, 2003), “reality bias” (e.g., Mitchell & Taylor, Smith & Rose, 2011; for reviews see: Haddock, Lau, 1999), “outcome bias” (Baron & Hershey, 1988), Ghrear, & Birch, 2017). An important component of and “curse of belief” (Ichikawa & Steup, 2013). In reasoning about other perspectives is the ability to each case, the bias described is consistent with the make inferences about what others know. For tendency to be influenced by one’s current knowl- example, to effectively communicate with others edge when reasoning about a more na€ıve perspec- one must routinely infer what others already know tive, so hereafter we use the overarching term, the to gauge what information needs elaboration. “curse of knowledge,” or sometimes simply “the The ability to make inferences about the knowl- bias.” edge of others is, however, susceptible to bias (i.e., A wealth of cognitive and social psychological a systematic distortion in thinking; Haselton, Nettle, research has investigated the pervasive nature of & Murray, 2015). When individuals know a piece the curse of knowledge and its effects on social cog- of information they tend to overestimate the likeli- nition and memory. The curse of knowledge is hood that others will also know this information, robust and widespread. It persists after explicitly compared to individuals who do not know (see warning participants about it and giving cash Ghrear, Birch, & Bernstein, 2016). For example, a incentives to avoid it (Camerer et al., 1989; Pohl & child who knows the hiding location of his candy Hell, 1996). It occurs across a variety of paradigms may overestimate how likely his siblings are to and information types (Blank, Fischer, & Erdfelder, know the hiding location as well. This bias, coined 2003; Bryant & Brockway, 1997; Tykocinski, Pick, & “the curse of knowledge” (e.g., Camerer, Kedmi, 2002), across cultures (Heine & Lehman, 1996; Pohl, Bender, & Lachmann, 2002), and has This research was supported by Social Sciences and Humani- been documented in many applied settings, ties Research Council of Canada (435-2013-0445, 752-2017-2358). Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Siba Ghrear, Department of Psychology, University of British © 2020 Society for Research in Child Development Columbia, 2136 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4. Electronic All rights reserved. 0009-3920/2021/9201-0004 mail may be sent to siba.ghrear@psych.ubc.ca. DOI: 10.1111/cdev.13437
Only Familiar Information is Curse 55 including business, education and politics, as well adults, and even babies will share their knowledge as in academic writing and legal, political, and (Taylor, Cartwright, & Bowden, 1991). medical decision-making (e.g., Harley, 2007; Pinker, 2014). We begin by briefly reviewing the literature Manifestation 2: The Curse of Knowledge in Judging on the bias in adults and children, distinguishing What Another Individual Knows between three different manifestations: (a) its effect on one’s ability to recall his or her earlier, more To examine the second manifestation among na€ıve, knowledge state in hindsight, (b) its effect on adults, researchers typically use the “hypothetical the ability to infer another individual’s knowledge design” where they present participants with state, and (c) its effect on one’s ability to estimate answers to a set of questions and then ask how how widely known information is among others. another individual, who had not learned the This third manifestation is of particular interest in answer, would respond (Pohl, 2007). For example, the current experiments. Fischhoff (1975) provided participants with descrip- tions of an historical event involving the war between the British and the Gurkha. Some partici- Three Manifestations of the Curse of Knowledge pants did not learn the war’s outcome, whereas others learned that “The British and the Gurkha Manifestation 1: The Curse of Knowledge in Recalling reached a military stalemate.” Subsequently, partici- One’s Earlier Perspective pants considered several possible outcomes, includ- To investigate the first manifestation (also known ing the actual outcome. For each of these outcomes, as, “hindsight bias” or “the knew-it-all-along” participants estimated how likely it would be for a effect) among adults, researchers typically use the na€ıve peer to predict that outcome. Compared to “memory design” where they ask participants to participants who did not learn the outcome, partici- answer a set of questions (Pohl, 2007). Later, partic- pants who knew the outcome estimated that a ipants learn the correct answers and must recall na€ıve peer would be more likely to predict that out- their original answers. Participants’ recollections of come of the war. In this study, and many others their original answers tend to be biased toward the like it, participants’ current knowledge biases their newly learned answers. For example, Fischhoff and ability to infer what someone else would think (for Beyth (1975) asked participants to predict the likeli- reviews see: Hoffrage & Pohl, 2003). hood of a set of possible outcomes of Nixon’s In a developmental demonstration of this mani- future visit to the USSR (e.g., a joint space program festation, Birch and Bloom (2003) investigated chil- between United States and the USSR). Upon learn- dren’s ability to infer another’s knowledge of the ing the outcomes of Nixon’s visit, participants were contents of different containers when the children asked to recall their earlier predictions of the likeli- were informed of the containers’ contents versus hood of the different outcomes. Participants’ recol- when they were uninformed. Three- to 5-year-old lections were biased toward their newfound children saw sets of containers, each containing “a knowledge of the outcome. Specifically, participants special thing inside.” Children learned that Percy, a were more likely to erroneously recall having pre- puppet, had seen what was inside one set, but not dicted the actual outcome. In that study, and many the other. On half the trials, children saw what was others like it (e.g., Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, inside both sets of containers; on remaining trials, 2000), participants’ current knowledge biased their children did not see what was inside either set, recollections of what they had previously thought resulting in a 2 9 2 cross between Percy’s knowl- (see Blank, Musch, & Pohl, 2007; Pohl, 2007). edge (or ignorance) and the child’s knowledge (or Similarly, Taylor, Esbensen, and Bennett (1994) ignorance). When children knew the containers’ found that when young children learned new infor- contents, they overestimated Percy’s knowledge mation (e.g., the color chartreuse) they claimed they compared to when they did not know the contain- knew it all along. They were unable to differentiate ers’ contents. That is, knowledge of the containers’ between knowledge that they learned a long time contents led to overestimations about what Percy ago (e.g., the color red), and knowledge that they knew. The magnitude of the bias decreased signifi- learned that day (see also Sutherland, Cimpian, Les- cantly between 3 and 5 years of age. These age-re- lie, & Gelman, 2015). Importantly, young children lated changes lend support to claims that the curse are not just attempting to “look smart,” they think of knowledge may contribute to young children’s that others would know this information too. In difficulty with false belief reasoning—the so-called fact, young children sometimes claim that peers, “litmus” test of children’s “theory of mind,” or
56 Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch their ability to reason about mental states (e.g., There is research confirming that children can Birch, 2005; Birch & Bloom, 2003; Bernstein, Atance, make a variety of inferences about a group’s knowl- Loftus, & Meltzoff, 2004; Royzman et al., 2003). edge; for instance, children can infer that adults Similarly, in a visual perspective taking measure tend to know more than children (e.g., Cluver, Hey- used in the current study, Bernstein, Atance, Melt- man, & Carver, 2013; Fitneva, 2010; Rakoczy, zoff, and Loftus (2007) found that knowledgeable Hamann, Warneken, & Tomasello, 2010). Nonethe- children and adults were more likely to overesti- less, there is little work examining the important mate another individual’s knowledge. In this proce- role of the curse of knowledge in children’s infer- dure, referred to as the Visual Hindsight Bias ences about a group’s knowledge. To our knowl- measure (VHB measure; developed by Harley, Carl- edge, there is only one study (to date) that sen, & Loftus, 2004; see Figure S1), 3- to 5-year-old specifically examined how the curse of knowledge children and adults saw degraded images of com- affects children’s inferences about their peers’ mon objects that gradually clarified on a computer. knowledge. In that study, 40 children from a noma- In a baseline condition, participants identified an dic pastoralist culture in Northern Kenya were image as it clarified. In a hindsight condition, par- taught the answers to some factual questions and ticipants first saw a clear version of the image, and not others. Males, but not females, overestimated then estimated when another individual, a puppet how many of their peers would know the answers named Ernie, would identify the image as it clari- to the questions they were taught compared to fied. The researchers found that after seeing the those they were not taught. No statistical differ- clear images of the objects, participants overesti- ences emerged with age, though the study was lim- mated how early, in the course of clarification, ited in its ability to make clear developmental Ernie would be able to identify the degraded conclusions given that the participants’ ages were images. In a follow-up study examining partici- estimated, since the Western calendar is not used to pants from 3 to 95 years of age, Bernstein, Erd- track birth dates in their culture (Ghrear, Chudek, felder, Meltzoff, Peria, and Loftus (2011) found that Fung, Mathew, & Birch, 2019). In our Experiment 1, the curse of knowledge follows a U-shaped trajec- we expand upon that work to provide the first tory across the life span, with young children and assessment of the role of the curse of knowledge in aging adults exhibiting a greater curse of knowl- North American children’s judgments of their edge than older children and younger adults (for peers’ knowledge and how it changes with devel- related research see, Bernstein et al., 2007; Lagat- opment. tuta, Sayfan, & Harvey, 2014). Rationale, Design, and Hypotheses for Experiment 1 Manifestation 3: The Curse of Knowledge in Judging In our social world, there are several situations How Widely Known Information is Among One’s Peers where one must make inferences about how wide- To investigate the third manifestation of the spread knowledge will be among a group of people. curse of knowledge, adult participants are pre- These situations include, for instance: the coordina- sented with questions and asked to estimate how tion and communication that occurs in team sports many of their peers will know the answers to each and group projects, or when public speaking, report- of the questions (e.g., Birch, Brosseau-Liard, Had- ing the news, writing, and teaching. In Experiment 1, dock, & Ghrear, 2017). Importantly, the participants we investigated the magnitude of the curse of knowl- are taught some of the answers but not others. Par- edge in children’s estimates of their peers knowl- ticipants who knew the answer to a question esti- edge. To do this, 4- to 7-year-old participants were mated that more peers would also know the presented with eight factual questions and were answer to the question, compared to participants asked how many children “about your age” would who did not know the answer to the same ques- know the answers (referred to hereafter as the peer tion. Critically, participants who did not know the estimates, or PE, task). For half of the questions, the answer were more accurate in estimating how “Knowledgeable trials,” they were told the answers widely known the information is among their peers, before they made their PE using a 5-option visual compared to the participants who knew the answer; scale indicating how widely known information is hence, the “curse” of knowledge (see also Heine & among their peers (Figure 1A). For the other ques- Lehman, 1996; Nickerson, Baddeley, & Freeman, tions, the “Ignorant trials,” they were not told the 1987; Pohl et al., 2002). answers before making PE. We counterbalanced
Only Familiar Information is Curse 57 Figure 1. (Panel A) The peer estimates task’s 5-option visual scale. Children used this scale to indicate their estimates of how many peers would know the answers to each question. (Panel B) Sample picture with four possible options for the questions. After testing, we assessed children’s knowledge about the questions presented in the Test Phase. Children were asked each question and presented with four possible answers. which set of questions served as Ignorant trials PE task would be correlated with the magnitude of across children (see Table 1). Subsequently, partici- their bias in the VHB measure, after controlling for pants were administered the VHB measure, a mea- any age-related changes. However, we suspected sure of the second manifestation of the bias that the effect size of the relation would be small, developed by Harley et al. (2004; discussed above), given (a) the differences in reasoning about a speci- to gauge the nature of the relation between the differ- fic individual versus a more abstract group of chil- ent manifestations. dren “about your age,” and (b) the different We formed three predictions based on previous methods employed by the two measures (e.g., con- research. First, we hypothesized that children ceptual vs. perceptual). would be cursed by their knowledge when judging how widespread their knowledge is among their peers, given the aforementioned literature showing Experiment 1 that children exhibit the other two manifestations of the bias (e.g., Birch & Bloom, 2003; Bernstein et al., Method 2007; Lagattuta et al., 2014; Royzman et al., 2003; Participants Sutherland & Cimpian, 2015; Wood, 1978). Specifi- cally, we predicted that children would make big- We recruited 125 children from a multicultural ger PE in the Knowledgeable trials (when they city in North America between January and June were told the answers) compared to the Ignorant 2016. We recruited this sample through multiple trials (when they were not told the answers). Sec- strategies, including contacting families through ond, given the literature suggesting that younger the university’s recruitment database, approaching children tend to be more cursed by their knowledge parents in a children’s museum, and contacting than older children and adults (Bernstein et al., parents through school recruitment, where teachers 2007; Birch & Bloom, 2003), we hypothesized that sent students home with consent forms. Predomi- older children would be less likely to overestimate nately, we recruited children who belonged to how widely known information is among their middle or upper-middle class families. We aimed peers when they know the information compared for a sample of children who were functional in to when they do not. Lastly, given research on English, and who spoke English at least 50% of adults suggesting that the ability to infer the knowl- their daily lives. We only tested children who were edge of an individual and a group are related eager to participate. Children were tested individu- (Christensen-Szalanski & Willham, 1991), we pre- ally in our laboratory, at a museum, or at local dicted that the magnitude of children’s bias in the schools.
Table 1 58 Mean Peer Estimates (PE) for Each Question Across Knowledge and Ignorant Trials in Experiments 1 and 2 Experiment 1 Experiment 2 Mean PE in Mean PE Magnitude knowledgeable in ignorant Magnitude Mean PE in Mean PE in Factual question Answers of bias trials trials Familiar answers of bias knowledge trials ignorant trials Set A How many children Fairyfly !.67 (p < .001) 1.39 2.06 Ladybug (57.4%) .59 2.39 1.80 will know which kind (p < .001) of insect, or bug, is the smallest? How many children Polar bear .12 (p > .60) 2.41 2.29 Polar bear (44.7%) .46 2.76 2.3 will know which (p = .004) Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch kind of bear is the largest? How many children The basset !.04 (p > .85) 1.98 2.02 Poodle (27.7%) .73 2.37 1.64 will know which hound (p < .001) kind of dog cannot swim? How many children Flea !.52 (p = .005) 2.27 2.79 Rabbit (40.4%) .36 3.22 2.86 will know which (p = .006) animal is the best jumper? Set A average !.29 (p = .015) 2.00 2.29 .54 2.69 2.15 (SD = .79) (SD = .85) (p < .001) (SD = .53) (SD = .64) Set B How many children Ruppell’s !.60 (p = .002) 1.81 2.41 Eagle (65.3%) .82 2.78 1.96 will know which vulture (p < .001) kind of bird can fly the highest? How many children The back .16 (p > .35) 1.33 1.16 Top of the head (42.9%) !.03 1.54 1.57 will know which of the neck (p > .85) part of the human body is called a nape? How many children Sailfish !.05 (p > .75) 2.15 2.20 The Mako shark (46.9%) .07 2.20 2.13 will know which (p > .70) animal is the fastest in the sea? How many children The greater !.51 (p = .004) 1.73 2.24 Bat (49%) .50 2.46 1.96 will know which wax moth (p = .012) animal has the best hearing?
Only Familiar Information is Curse 59 For the PE task, we analyzed the data of 101 chil- ignorant trials Note. For the Magnitude of Bias columns, we reported the mean difference in peer estimates for Knowledgeable and Ignorant trials, and we ran one-sample t-tests to examine whether the differences were significantly different than zero (i.e., no bias). We reported the p-values in brackets. In Experiment 2, we taught children fake but familiar answers in the Knowledgeable Trials. These answers were most commonly selected as being correct in Experiment 1 (see Procedure). In brackets, under the familiar answers, we indicated the Mean PE in (SD = .84) dren (66% male). Of the children who were excluded 1.91 from analyses, five of them were excluded because they were distracted, were unable to follow instruc- tions, or did not understand English. Nineteen chil- dren were excluded because they failed the knowledge trials Mean PE in exclusion criteria (discussed in Experiment 1, Proce- (SD = .88) dure), suggesting that they did not understand the 2.25 task. According to G*Power post hoc analyses, given our sample size, we had 0.77 power of detecting a Experiment 2 small to medium effect of the magnitude of bias, if it existed. Children who were included in our analyses percentage of children who selected those answers as being correct when they were not taught the answers to those questions in Experiment 1. Magnitude (p = .009) of bias were 4–7 years old (M = 6 years 0 months; .34 range = 4 years 0 months–7 years 11 months); includ- ing twenty-four 4-year-olds (M = 4,5; range = 4,0– 4,11), twenty-five 5-year-olds (M = 5,5; range = 5,0– 5,11), twenty-five 6-year-olds (M = 6,6; range = 6,0– Familiar answers 6,10), and twenty-seven 7-year-olds (M = 7,4; range = 7,0–7,11). Fifty-two per cent were Caucasian, 13% were East or Southeast Asian, 8% were South Asian, and 22% were of mixed background. Parents did not disclose the ethnicity for the remaining 5%. From the 125 children recruited, 117 children completed the VHB measure. From this sample, 99 in ignorant (SD = .72) children’s data were included in our analyses of the Mean PE trials 2.00 VHB measure. As for the children’s data that were excluded, seven were excluded because they were distracted, five did not understand the task or did not follow instructions (e.g., peeked behind the knowledgeable Mean PE in (SD = .90) screens), three did not complete sufficient trials, one trials 1.75 participant did not speak English, and two were excluded because of experimenter error. According Experiment 1 to G*Power post hoc analyses, given our sample size, we had over 0.90 power of detecting a med- !.25 (p = .049) ium effect size of the hindsight bias, if it existed. Magnitude of bias Children who were included in analyses were 4- to 7-years-old (M = 5 years 11 months; range = 4 years 0 month–7 years 11 months; 61% male); including twenty-seven 4-year-olds (M = 4,6; range = 4,0–4,11), twenty-five 5-year-olds (M = 5,5; range = 5,0–5,11), Answers twenty-two 6-year-olds (M = 6,5; range = 6,0–6,11), and twenty-five 7-year-olds (M = 7,4; range = 7,0– 7,11). Fifty-four percent of the participants were Caucasian, 13% were East and Southeast Asian, 8% were South Asian, and 21% were of mixed back- ground. Factual question Set B average Material For the PE Task, we used a 5-point visual scale that represents a progressively larger number of Continued peers: none, a couple, some, a lot, and a whole lot. Table 1 For example, the first point is “none” and the box does not have any child silhouettes, the second
60 Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch point is “a couple” and the box contains two child Demonstration phase. Subsequently, the experi- silhouettes, the third point is “some” and the box menter administered three demonstration trials contains six child silhouettes, and so on (Fig- where she showed the child how to make a PE. ure 1A). Through these trials, the experimenter showed the For the VHB measure, we used materials akin to participant how to make a PE for an easy question, those used in the VHB measure in Bernstein et al. a difficult question, and a question that is medium (2007). The procedure involved four objects that in difficulty. To demonstrate an easy question, the measured up to 5 in. long: a bird, a school bus, a experimenter asked, “A cow says moo. How many tree, and a horse. The materials included a box children your age will know that?” then the experi- measuring 13 9 15 in. with one open side and a menter went on to say that a whole lot of children three-ringed binder placed on top of the box. The will know the answer to that question and she binder held 10 clear plastic sheets speckled with pointed to “a whole lot” on the 5-point scale. To black dots. These sheets hung in front of the open demonstrate a difficult question, the experimenter side of the box, to occlude the participant’s view of showed children a picture of an odd object and said what was inside. Each sheet had a unique pattern “This is a holophonor. How many children your of black dots that cover 5% of each sheet, such that age will know that?” Then the experimenter went each sheet was transparent but blurry. Behind the on to say that no children would know the answer 10th sheet it was extremely difficult to identify the to this question and pointed to “none” on the 5- object inside the box, however, as the experimenter point scale. Lastly, to demonstrate a medium in dif- flipped through the sheets the view of the object ficulty question, the experimenter asked, “a giraffe became clearer (Figure 2). is the tallest animal. How many children your age will know that?” then she went on to say that some children will know the answer to this question and Procedure she pointed to “some.” Warm-up phase. For each study session, the PE test phase. For the experimental trials, the experimenter introduced herself, and asked the experimenter asked the child to make PE about child some questions about his or her hobbies, to how many children would know different factual get the child comfortable answering questions. The questions. Each question was presented with a cor- experimenter then showed the participant the scale responding picture (e.g., a question about fish was and discussed the different amounts of children presented with a silhouette of a fish). The questions associated with each point on the scale (Figure 1A). were divided into two sets; Sets A and B. All par- Then, the experimenter explained that she will ask ticipants were presented with both sets of ques- some questions about how many of the child’s tions: half of the participants were taught the peers will know different things. The child was answers to Set A, and not Set B, whereas the other asked to indicate their answers by pointing to one half were taught the answers to Set B, and not Set of the points on the scale. A. Thus, answers for half of the questions were Figure 2. Material for Visual Hindsight Bias (VHB) measure. We used this material to conduct the VHB measure (Bernstein et al., 2011). We used the binder and the box in Panel A to hide each toy (see Panel B). In the Baseline condition, we hid each toy in the box and covered it up with the 10 plastic sheets making it difficult to see what was inside the box. Then we removed one sheet at a time and asked children what was inside the box. In the Hindsight condition, we repeated the same procedure, however, children were asked to estimate when Ernie, a puppet, could see inside the box.
Only Familiar Information is Curse 61 taught to children prior to making their PE (e.g., confirmed that the child believed that Ernie could “A Ruppell’s vulture can fly the highest. How identify the toy because he could currently see it, as many children will know which kind of bird can opposed to the child thinking that Ernie has seen fly the highest?”), and the other half of the ques- the toy before (only one child’s data was excluded tions were not taught (e.g., “How many children for that reason). will know which kind of bear is the largest?”). Half of the participants were presented with Set A first, whereas the other half were presented with Set B Results first. To ensure that children had no prior knowl- PE Task: Did Children Show the Curse of Knowledge? edge about the questions before the experimental session, we selected unfamiliar (or unique) factual Before we began our main analyses, we con- trivia-like questions (Table 1). firmed that participants did not know the answers The child was then asked two posttest questions to the questions that they were not taught. Here to further confirm that they understood the 5-point chance for each question is 25% because the ques- scale: “How many children like to be happy?” and tion was presented as a four-option forced choice “How many children like to be sad?” If the child task. To compare children’s total score on the four indicated that less than “some” of their peers like to Ignorant trials, we ran a one-sample t-test com- be happy, or that more than “some” of their peers paring their mean score against one (i.e., chance like to be sad, then we inferred that the child did for four questions). Children’s mean score was not understand the task and we excluded their 0.73 which was significantly below chance, data. Lastly, the experimenter asked the child the t(98) = !3.67, p < .001, confirming that children factual questions with four possible response were unlikely to know the answers to the questions options (Figure 1B), to confirm that children did that were not taught, even when given the opportu- not know the answers to the questions they were nity to guess the correct answer from four possible not taught. answers. VHB measure. Following the PE Task most To examine the effect of knowledge on PE, we children agreed to participate in the VHB measure. created a magnitude of bias score for each child In a Baseline condition, the experimenter hid a toy by subtracting each child’s PE in the knowledge- inside a box, behind the 10 speckled sheets, such able trials by the average PE in the Ignorant that it was impossible for the child to see the hid- (baseline) trials for each factual question. Given den toy. The experimenter then removed one sheet that children estimated that some factual questions at a time, so that the toy became progressively were more difficult than others (e.g., Table 1, for a clearer, and the child was asked what he or she summary of the baseline estimates of peer’s thought the toy was, before each sheet was knowledge by question), we used these difference removed. When the child identified the toy, the scores to account for differences in question diffi- experimenter noted how many of the 10 sheets had culty. That is, for each factual question (e.g., How been removed. The experimenter completed this many children will know which bird can fly the procedure four times with four different toys. In highest?), we subtracted each child’s PE when the Hindsight condition that followed directly (i.e., they were taught the answer to the question (e.g., with no delay), the experimenter introduced Ernie, Ruppell’s vulture can fly the highest) by the aver- the puppet, and explained that Ernie is just as age PE when children did not learn the answer to smart as the participant, but he had never played the question (see Blank, Nestler, von Collani, & this game before. The experimenter told the child Fischer, 2008, for similar analyses). We then exam- that they will be playing the same game with Ernie. ined whether the average magnitude of bias The experimenter then hid each toy, and once across factual questions was significantly different again, removed each sheet. During this round, the from zero. A one-sample t-test showed that the child was asked to indicate when Ernie could iden- average magnitude of bias was significantly differ- tify the toy behind the sheets. When the child indi- ent than zero, t(100) = !2.68, p = .009, d = .27. cated that Ernie identified the toy, the experimenter Contrary to our prediction, however, children asked the child “What will Ernie say is inside the made lower PE when they learned the answers to box?” If the child indicated the appropriate toy, the the factual questions, compared to when they did experimenter noted the number of sheets removed. not learn the answers (average magnitude of Then, the experimenter asked the child how Ernie bias = !0.24). Note, we confirmed that children knew what was inside the box. This question were attentive to the information we taught them,
62 Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch as they recalled the answers significantly above estimation. To examine whether children showed chance (Table S1). the curse of knowledge in the VHB measure, we entered the number of sheets removed to uncover the identity of the toy as a continuous dependent PE Task: Did the Magnitude of the Bias Decrease With variable nested within participants (i.e., 0–10). Con- Age? dition, centered age (in months), and their interac- We conducted a multiple linear regression inves- tion were entered as predictors. As expected tigating the effect of age (in months) on the average (Table 2), we found a main effect of the curse of magnitude of bias, as well as the effect of set order knowledge, p < .001; that is, children removed (i.e., whether children were presented with Set A or more sheets, in the Baseline condition, when they B first), Set taught (i.e., whether children were were identifying the toys themselves, compared to taught the answers to Set A or Set B) and sex. Hindsight condition, when they removed sheets to Using the enter method, we found that age, set estimate when Ernie can identify the toys. We also order, set taught, and sex, explained a significant found a significant interaction between age and amount of the variance, F(3, 97) = 7.49, p < .001, condition, p < .01. Probing the interaction suggested with an adjusted R2 of .16. Age was a significant that the number of sheets removed in the Hindsight predictor of the magnitude of bias (b = !.42, condition was significantly lower than in the Base- p < .001), whereas set order (b = !.13, p > .15), set line condition across all ages and the difference was taught (b = !.02, p > .80), and sex (b = .03, p > .70) larger for younger than older participants (Fig- were not significant predictors. That is, older chil- ure S2). That is, as observed in previous studies dren were more likely to make lower PE upon (e.g., Bernstein et al., 2011), younger children learning the answers to factual questions, compared showed a bigger curse of knowledge in the VHB to younger children (see Figure 3, for an illustration measure than older children. of the magnitude of bias by age in years). Did Performance on the PE Task Correlate With VHB Measure: Did Children Show the Bias? If So, Did Performance on the VHB Measure? It Decrease With Age? To create a magnitude of bias score for the VHB For our main analyses here, we conducted multi- measure, we took the average of the differences level regression using the lme4 package (Bates, between the number of sheets children removed in M€achler, Bolker, & Walker, 2015) in the R environ- the Baseline condition and the Hindsight condition ment (R Core Development Team, 2016), and we to identify each object. We found a significant probed interactions and calculated regions of signif- bivariate correlation between magnitude of bias in icance with the online calculator (Preacher, Curran, the PE task and the VHB measure, r(81) = .34, & Bauer, 2006). Maximum likelihood was used for p = .002. Indeed, the association between the mag- nitude of the bias in the PE task and VHB measure is significant, even after controlling for age, r(78) = .27, p = .014. Children who showed a bigger magnitude of bias in the PE task (i.e., the children who were cursed by their knowledge in the PE task) were likely to also show a bigger curse of knowledge in the VHB measure. Discussion In contradiction to our first prediction, we found that on average 4- to 7-year-old children were more Figure 3. The magnitude of bias by age in Experiment 1 in peer likely to make lower PE when they learned the estimates (PE) task. To calculate the magnitude of bias, we sub- answers to the factual questions, and this tendency tracted children’s PE in each Knowledgeable trial by the average to make lower estimates upon learning the answers PE for the Ignorant trial and averaged across these difference increased with age. Also, we found that children’s scores. As illustrated, the magnitude of bias decreases with age, such that older children tended to make lower PE in the Knowl- performance on the VHB measure was related to edgeable trials versus the Ignorant trials. Error bars represent their performance on the PE task, such that children standard error. who showed a bigger magnitude of bias in the
Only Familiar Information is Curse 63 Table 2 Experiment 1 Multilevel Regression Analyses Visual Hindsight Bias Measure Intercept + Predictor Intercept only Intercept + condition Condition 9 Age Fixed Intercept 7.44 (.12)*** 7.44 (.12)*** 7.44 (.12)*** Condition (recognition = !.5, hindsight = .5) !1.17 (.12)*** !1.17 (.12)*** Age in months (centered) !0.005 (.009) Condition 9 Age 0.03 (.009)** Random Variance of participant-level error 1.10 1.15 1.15 Variance of response-level error 3.32 2.93 2.90 Deviance 3,326.3 3,239.6 3,231.0 Akaike information criterion 3,332.3 3,247.6 3,243.0 Bayesian information criterion 3,346.3 3,266.3 3,271.0 Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. **p < .01. ***p < .001. VHB measure tended to show a bigger magnitude diminished, prevented, or even reversed under cer- of bias in the PE task (i.e., greater PE when they tain circumstances, such as when information is sur- knew the factual questions vs. when they did not). prising or implausible (e.g., Birch & Bloom, 2007; This suggests that the two manifestations of the Mazursky & Ofir, 1990; Ofir & Mazursky, 1997; Pohl curse of knowledge are related, even though they et al., 2002; Sanna & Schwarz, 2003; Wasserman, Lem- were assessed using two very different designs: one pert, & Hastie, 1991; Yopchick & Kim, 2012). focused on conceptual information (animal facts) Much debate exists over the specific cognitive and the other focused on perceptual information mechanism that mediates the bias (e.g., Bernstein, (visual recognition of objects), thereby eliminating Kumar, Masson, & Levitin, 2018; Pezzo, 2003, Pohl, any concern that shared method variance could 1998; Pohl, Bayen, Arnold, Auer, & Martin, 2018; account for this relation. Wasserman et al., 1991). We believe that the instances Why did we find a reversal of the typical curse that do not result in the curse of knowledge are as the- of knowledge in the PE task, such that children (on oretically informative (if not more informative) than average) made lower, not higher, PE when they instances that result in the curse of knowledge. As knew the answers? We suspect that children such, we capitalized on this unique opportunity showed this pattern of responses for theoretically afforded by the unexpected results to investigate the interesting reasons—namely because the answers to factors that mediate the curse of knowledge. In Exper- those questions were especially unfamiliar, and iments 2 and 3, we examined the factors that do, ver- therefore lacked a sense of fluency (i.e., ease in pro- sus do not, contribute to the curse of knowledge. cessing). When designing Experiment 1, we inten- Before outlining the rationale and hypotheses for tionally selected factual questions (e.g., “What Experiments 2 and 3, we first review key literature animal has the best hearing?” Answer: “The discussing the mechanisms underlying the curse of Greater Wax Moth”) that children were very unli- knowledge. kely to know, to ensure that children did not know the answers for the set of factual questions in the Mechanisms Underlying the Curse of Knowledge Ignorant trials (i.e., so we could experimentally manipulate knowing vs. not knowing). According to an inhibitory control account, the Even though we predicted that children would curse of knowledge can be overcome by suppress- show the curse of knowledge in their PE, this contra- ing, or inhibiting, one’s privileged knowledge when dictory finding fits with research in adults demon- reasoning about a na€ıve perspective (e.g., Bayen, strating the unique circumstances that circumvent the Pohl, Erdfelder, & Auer, 2007). For example, if you typically observed curse of knowledge. Although the know the location of the Trevi Fountain, you must curse of knowledge appears to be the prevalent out- inhibit that information (Rome, Italy) to make accu- come of acquiring new information, some research rate inferences about others’ knowledge. Con- with adult participants has found that the bias can be versely, an inability to adequately inhibit your
64 Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch knowledge contributes to the bias. Inhibitory con- similar series of degraded images, but they were trol, as a cognitive skill, develops across childhood instructed to estimate when a na€ıve peer would and deteriorates with older age (e.g., Groß & identify the celebrities. For each trial, in the hind- Bayen, 2015), consistent with the age-related sight condition, participants saw a clear image of changes associated with the curse of knowledge the celebrity (visual knowledge), and then the where young children and aging adults are more degraded images. Importantly, in this condition, affected by the bias (e.g., Bernstein et al., 2011). participants saw the degraded images of celebrities Researchers have also proposed fluency misattri- that they themselves identified in the baseline con- bution as a mechanism that contributes to the curse dition (Familiar celebrities), as well as degraded of knowledge. Researchers suggest that when infor- image of celebrities that they had not identified mation feels fluent (i.e., easy to process, easy to before (New celebrities). Participants knew the recall, or easy to integrate with our existing knowl- identities of both the Familiar and New celebrities, edge structures), we tend to think that this informa- but they had previous experience identifying the tion is obvious to others (Bernstein et al., 2018; Familiar celebrities, and as such would have pro- Birch et al., 2017; Harley et al., 2004). In other cessed that information more fluently. Participants’ words, we misattribute the subjective ease associ- knowledge of the celebrities’ identity led to overes- ated with a piece of information to its objective timations of how early, in the course of clarification, ease, or foreseeability, to others. According to a flu- the na€ıve peer would identify the celebrities. Impor- ency misattribution account, the curse of knowledge tantly, participants were more likely to show the is not due to a failure to inhibit the content of one’s bias for the Familiar celebrities compared to the knowledge, but rather a tendency to misinterpret New celebrities. The latter finding suggests that the ease (fluency) with which the information is familiarity with processing the images evoked a processed, or comes to mind. For example, if one feeling of fluency that strengthened the effect of the knows that the Trevi Fountain is in Rome, one bias. That is, fluency misattribution contributed to must be able to fully discount the ease with which the curse of knowledge over and above the effect of this information comes to mind to make accurate simply possessing knowledge (see also Birch et al., inferences about others’ knowledge of this fact. 2017). Fluency misattribution results in errors in a vari- Importantly, the fluency misattribution account ety of judgments in perceptual, conceptual, and is quite different from the inhibitory control account social reasoning, but it stems from an otherwise of the curse of knowledge. The key difference here useful heuristic, namely fluency attribution (see is that the fluency misattribution account suggests Whittlesea, 1993, for a review). Information that has that there are specific characteristics of knowledge been processed before (due to prior exposure) is (e.g., familiarity, prior exposure) that contribute to, processed more fluently (Jacoby & Whitehouse, or minimize (e.g., unfamiliarity) the curse of knowl- 1989; Whittlesea, 1993). As such, it serves an impor- edge. Fluency misattribution emphasizes the role of tant memory function by signaling that we have fluently processing the information, whereas the previously encountered the information. That is, inhibitory control account emphasizes the role of when participants process information fluently, possessing knowledge. That is, according to the flu- they attribute those feelings of fluency to prior ency misattribution account, certain types of knowl- exposure (e.g., Jacoby & Dallas, 1981). Fluency edge (i.e., information that is easy to process) will misattribution occurs when the subjective feeling of lead to larger bias in our judgments, whereas fluency is attributed to something other than prior according to the inhibitory control account, as it exposure. For instance, individuals may misat- currently stands, any knowledge can lead to the tribute the feeling of fluency to an inaccurate bias. source, such as how objectively easy the informa- tion is, or how widely known it is. Rationale, Design, and Hypotheses for Experiment 2 Harley et al. (2004) were the first to examine the effect of fluency misattribution on the curse of We hypothesized that children made lower PE knowledge, by using a VHB design. In one condi- upon learning the answers to the factual questions tion (baseline), participants watched degraded in Experiment 1, because the answers to the ques- images of celebrity faces gradually clarify. For each tions were unfamiliar, not just unknown, and there- image, participants indicated when they could iden- fore they did not feel fluent to children. For tify the celebrity. Subsequently, in the hindsight example, children may have never heard of “the condition, participants were asked to watch a Greater Wax Moth” before. This unfamiliarity likely
Only Familiar Information is Curse 65 led to a dysfluency in the processing of the infor- the true answer to at least one of the questions that mation, which negated the fluency misattribution they were taught. Recall, we replaced the true (un- process. Indeed, this is the opposite of the curse of familiar) answers with fake (familiar) answers, so knowledge effect that these same children showed children who knew the true answers may question in the VHB measure, where the items were made the researcher’s validity as an informant, and there- fluent via repeated exposure over the 10 trials. We fore our experimental manipulation could have suspected that if the answers in the PE tasks con- been compromised. Note that our findings were tained more familiar information (e.g., the “bat” consistent even if we did not exclude these chil- has the best hearing), children would show a typi- dren’s data. We decided to exclude their data, cal curse of knowledge. To test this hypothesis, in because they did not meet our preset exclusion cri- Experiment 2, we presented children with the same teria. questions as in Experiment 1, except we taught chil- According to G*Power post hoc analyses, given dren fake, but familiar (and therefore more fluent), our sample size, we had over 0.9 power of detect- answers. We hypothesized that unlike in Experi- ing a medium effect of the magnitude of bias, if it ment 1, children would show a typical curse of existed. Children who were included in our analy- knowledge and think that questions they were ses were 4–7 years old (M = 5 years 11 months; taught were more widely known among their range = 4 years 0 months–7 years 11 months): peers, than questions they were not taught. More- twenty-five 4-year-olds (M = 4,5; range = 4,0–4,9), over, we predicted that familiar answers in Experi- twenty-nine 5-year-olds (M = 5,5; range = 5,0–5,11), ment 2 would lead to a greater curse of knowledge, twenty-four 6-year-olds (M = 6,5; range = 6,0–6,11), than the unfamiliar answers in Experiment 1. Our and twenty-six 7-year-olds (M = 7,7; range = 7, other predictions for Experiment 2 were the same 0–7,11). Forty per cent of the participants were Cau- as Experiment 1: We predicted that age would casian, 29% were East or Southeast Asian, 4% were moderate the effect of the curse of knowledge on South Asian, and 19% were of mixed background. PE (i.e., older children will show a smaller curse of As for the remaining 8%, parents did not disclose knowledge compared to younger children) and that their ethnic background. children’s performance in the PE task would corre- From the 176 children recruited, 105 children par- late modestly with their performance on the VHB ticipated in the VHB measure. From this sample, 93 measure, even after controlling for age effects. children’s data were included in our analyses of the VHB measure. Of the children who were excluded from analyses, five decided not to continue, four Experiment 2 were very distracted, three did not follow instruc- tions or did not understand the task (e.g., a child Method thought that Ernie knew which toys were hidden because he overheard the researcher). According to Participants G*Power post hoc analyses, given our sample size, We recruited 176 children from a multicultural we had over 0.90 power of detecting a medium city in North America between November 2016 and effect size of the hindsight bias, if it existed. The November 2017. We used the same recruitment children included in our analyses were 4- to 7-year- strategies as Experiment 1 (see Participants), and olds (M = 5 years 10 months; range = 4 years we aimed for a similar sample of children (e.g., 1 month–7 years 11 months; 47% male). Thirty-two functional in English, eager to participate). Again, 4-year-olds (M = 4,5; range = 4,1–4,11), seventeen children belonged to middle or upper-middle class 5-year-olds (M = 5,5; range = 5,1–5,11), twenty-one families, and they were tested individually in our 6-year-olds (M = 6,6; range = 6,0–6,11), and twenty- laboratory, at a museum, or at local schools. three 7-year-olds (M = 7,6; range = 7,1–7,11). Forty- For the PE task, we analyzed the data of 104 seven per cent of the participants were Caucasian, children (46% male). Of the children who were 25% were East or Southeast Asian, 5% were South excluded from analyses, 11 were excluded because Asian, and 18% were of mixed background. they did not follow instructions, or did not com- plete sufficient trials. Forty-one participants were Material and Procedure excluded because they failed the exclusion criteria (discussed in Experiment 1 Procedure) suggesting Experiment 2 used the same material and fol- that they did not understand the task. Lastly, 20 lowed the same procedure as Experiment 1. Except, participants’ data were excluded because they knew we replaced the accurate, but unfamiliar, answers
66 Ghrear, Fung, Haddock, and Birch to the questions with fake, but familiar, answers. between age and condition, p < .05. Probing the Specifically, in Experiment 2, we used the most interaction suggested that the number of sheets commonly selected guesses from Experiment 1, removed in the hindsight condition was signifi- Ignorant trials, when children were asked the fac- cantly lower than in the Baseline condition across tual questions and presented with four possible all ages and the difference was larger for younger answers (Figure 1b). For example, we told partici- than older participants: Younger children showed a pants that the “lady bug” instead of the “fairyfly” bigger curse of knowledge effect than older chil- is the smallest insect (see Table 1). We made par- dren (Figure S3). ents aware that children would be given fake, but familiar, answers to some of the factual questions Did Performance on the PE Task Correlate With during the informed consent, and at the end of test- Performance on the VHB Measure? ing, we told children the accurate answers to the factual questions. We did not find a significant bivariate correlation between the magnitude of bias in the PE task and VHB measure, r(62) = .16, p = .21. Indeed, the cor- Results relation was not significant, when we controlled for age, r(59) = .12, p = .37. That is, children’s perfor- PE Task: Did Children Show the Curse of Knowledge? mance on the PE task appeared to be unrelated to Like Experiment 1, we confirmed that children their performance on the VHB measure. were unlikely to have prior knowledge of the fac- tual questions by examining their answers to the Does the Magnitude of the Curse of Knowledge Differ questions in the Ignorant trials, t(103) = !5.36, Across Experiment 1 and 2? p < .001. Then, we computed the magnitude of bias scores for each child. We found that children To directly compare the effects of being taught showed a significant curse of knowledge effect, familiar versus unfamiliar answers to the questions, such that the magnitude of the bias (M = 0.44) was we conducted a multiple linear regression investi- significantly bigger than zero, t(103) = 6.24, gating the effect of experiment (1, 2), as well as age p < .001, d = .61. Children made bigger PE when on the magnitude of bias. We found a significant they were taught the answers to the factual ques- regression equation, F(2, 201) = 30.21, p < .001, with tions, compared to when they were not taught—the an adjusted R2 of .22. Both experiment (b = .39, classic curse of knowledge. p < .001) and age (b = !.27, p < .001) were signifi- cant predictors of the curse of knowledge. When children were taught familiar answers to the factual PE Task: Did the Magnitude of Bias Decrease With questions, they made bigger PE for the Knowledge- Age? able trials compared to the Ignorant trials. And Again, we conducted a multiple linear regression investigating the effect of age on the magnitude of the bias, as well as the effect of set order, set taught, and sex. We found that these variables did not explain a significant amount of the variance in the magnitude of the bias, F(4, 98) = 1.18, p = .32, with an adjusted R2 of .01. Age was marginally predictive of the magnitude of bias (b = !.16, p = .12), such that older children showed a smaller magnitude of bias compared to younger children (see Figure 4). VHB Measure: Did children Show the Bias? If So, Did It Decrease With Age? Figure 4. The magnitude of bias by age in Experiment 2 in peer We used the same analyses plan as Experiment estimates (PE) task. Overall, children showed a magnitude of bias that is significantly bigger than zero, demonstrating the typi- 1, condition, centered age, and their interaction cal curse of knowledge effect. Children made higher PE when were entered as predictors. As shown in Table 3, they learned the familiar answers to the factual questions, com- we found a main effect of the curse of knowledge, pared to when they did not learn the answers. Error bars reflect p < .001. We also found a significant interaction standard error.
Only Familiar Information is Curse 67 Table 3 Experiment 2 Multilevel Regression Analyses Visual Hindsight Bias Measure Intercept + Predictor Intercept only Intercept + condition Condition 9 Age Fixed Intercept 7.33 (.13)*** 7.33 (.13)*** 7.33 (.13)*** Condition (recognition = !.5, hindsight = .5) !1.60 (.13)*** !1.60 (.13)*** Age in months (centered) !0.010 (.008) Condition 9 Age 0.02 (.009)* Random Variance of participant-level error 1.04 1.12 1.12 Variance of response-level error 3.94 3.21 3.18 Deviance 3,219.4 3,086.9 3,080.1 Akaike information criterion 3,225.4 3,094.9 3,092.1 Bayesian information criterion 3,239.2 3,113.3 3,119.8 Note. Standard errors are in parentheses. *p < .05. ***p < .001. overall, younger children showed a bigger curse of questions made lower PE compared to baseline knowledge compared to older children. (Ignorant) estimates; whereas children who were presented with familiar answers to those same questions made bigger PE compared to the baseline Discussion estimates. In Experiment 2, when children were taught One limitation of the cross-experimental compar- familiar answers to the same factual questions as in isions is that children were not randomly assigned Experiment 1, children made higher PE for the to the two experiments. Experiment 1 data collec- questions that were taught versus the questions that tion was completed before we started data collec- were not taught, as hypothesized. That is, upon tion for Experiment 2. To address this limitation, hearing answers that contained familiar items, chil- we conducted Experiment 3, where children were dren estimated that the questions that they were randomly assigned to one of three conditions; an taught would be more widely known compared to Unfamiliar condition, a Familiar condition, or an the questions that they were not taught. There was Ignorant condition. In all three conditions, we pre- only modest support for our second prediction; the sented children with the same six factual questions. magnitude of the curse of knowledge in the PE task In the Ignorant condition, we did not teach children decreased marginally with age in Experiment 2, but answers to the factual questions, before asking significantly when combining Experiments 1 and 2, them to make PE (e.g., “How many children will suggesting that the age-related decline previously know which kind of insect can fly the highest?”). In observed in the other two manifestations of the the Familiar condition, we taught children familiar curse of knowledge is also present in children’s answers to the factual questions (e.g., “the butterfly judgments of how prevalent knowledge is among can fly the highest”) before asking them to make one’s peers, but may not be as robust. This time, PE. In the Unfamiliar condition, we taught children when we taught children familiar answers in the unfamiliar answers to the factual questions (e.g., PE task, we did not find a significant correlation “the stonefly can fly the highest”) before asking between the magnitude of the bias in the PE task them to make PE. and the VHB measure. We discuss the implications In this experiment, we used a different set of of not finding a correlation between the two tasks questions from those used in Experiments 1 and 2, in the General Discussion. to confirm that the curse of knowledge is not speci- Importantly, we found an interaction between fic to the factual questions we used in Experiment 1 Experiment 1 and 2 on PE, such that children and 2. This time, we directly examined the effect of showed a curse of knowledge in Experiment 2 but familiarity on the curse of knowledge. We selected not in Experiment 1; children showed a reversal of 11 pairs of familiar and unfamiliar animals, and we the bias in Experiment 1. That is, children who conducted a pretest to confirm that one of the ani- were presented with unfamiliar answers to the mals was more familiar to children than the other.
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