OIL & GAS - August 2021 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Advantage India 4 Market Overview and Trends 6 Sector Drivers 9 Recent Trends and Strategies 24 Growth Drivers 30 Opportunities 36 Key Industry Contacts 38 Appendix 40 2
Executive summary 2. WORLD’S THIRD-LARGEST 3. THIRD-LARGEST ENERGY CONSUMER CONSUMER OF OIL According to IEA (India Energy Outlook India’s consumption of petroleum products grew 4.5% to 213.69 MMT in 4. FOURTH-LARGEST 2021), primary energy demand is expected to nearly double to 1,123 million tonnes of oil FY20 from 213.22 MMT in FY19. LNG IMPORTER equivalent, as the country's gross domestic India retained its spot as the third-largest product (GDP) is expected to increase to consumer of oil in the world in 2019. LNG import in the country accounted USD 8.6 trillion by 2040. for about one-fourth of total gas demand, which is estimated to double over the next five years. To meet this 1. SECOND-LARGEST rising demand the country plans to increase its LNG import capacity to REFINER IN ASIA 50 MT in the coming years. India increasingly relies on imported As of May 01, 2020, India’s oil 2 3 LNG. It is the fourth-largest LNG refining capacity stood at importer. 259.3 million metric tonnes India’s LNG import stood at 33.68 (MMT), making it the second- billion cubic meters (bcm) in FY20. largest refiner in Asia. Private companies owned about 35.19% of the total refining capacity in FY20. India is planning to double its refining capacity to 450-500 1 4 million tonnes by 2030. Notes: MMT - Million Metric Tonnes, Mtoe - Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent; mbpd - Million Barrels Per Day, LNG - Liquified Natural Gas 3
Advantage India 2. GROWING DEMAND 3. RAPID EXPANSION India is the world’s third-largest energy consumer India aims to commercialise 50% of its SPR (strategic petroleum reserves) to globally. raise funds and build additional storage tanks to offset high oil prices. Diesel demand in India is expected to double to In July 2021, the Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Mr. Nitin 163 MT by 2029-30. Gadkari inaugurated India’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility plant in According to the International Energy Agency Nagpur, Maharashtra. (IEA), consumption of natural gas in India is In July 2021, Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced to spend expected to grow by 25 billion cubic metres Rs. 300 billion (US$ 4.03 billion) in FY22 to boost the oil & gas output. (bcm), registering an average annual growth of In February 2021, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced that the 9% until 2024. Government of India plans to invest ~Rs. 7.5 trillion (US$ 102.49 billion) on oil and gas infrastructure in the next five years. The industry is expected to attract US$ 25 billion investment in exploration 1. SUPPORTIVE FDI and production by 2022. Refining capacity in the country is expected to increase to 667 MTPA by 2040. GUIDELINES In July 2021, the Department for 4. POLICY SUPPORT Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) approved In Union Budget 2021, the an order allowing 100% foreign government allocated funds direct investments (FDIs) under worth Rs. 12,480 crore (US$ automatic route for oil and gas 1.71 billion) for direct benefit 2 3 PSUs. transfer of LPG (liquefied The Government has allowed petroleum gas) and Rs. 1,078 100% foreign direct investment crore (US$ 147.31 million) to (FDI) in upstream and private feedstock subsidy to sector refining projects. BCPL/Assam Gas Cracker The FDI limit for public sector Complex. refining projects has been raised In Union Budget 2021, the 1 4 to 49% without any Finance Minister announced to disinvestment or dilution of provide 1 crore more LPG domestic equity in existing connections under Pradhan PSUs. Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) scheme. 5
State-owned companies dominate oil and gas in India India remained the third-largest energy consumer in 2019. India’s crude oil production in FY20 stood at 32.2 MMT. Crude oil production stood at 4.9 MMT in FY22 (April-May 2021) and was 30.5 MMT for FY21. Assam, Gujarat and Rajasthan account for more than 96% of oil production in India. India’s existing strategic oil reserves (SPR) is ~5.3 million tonnes. India had 4.7 thousand million barrels of proven oil reserves and produced 37.5 million tonnes in 2019. Oil production is expected to rise and reach 36 bcm^ by 2021. State-owned ONGC dominate the upstream segment. Upstream segment - exploration and It is the largest upstream company in Exploration and Production (E&P) segment, accounting production for approximately 70.0% of the country’s total oil and gas output. Midstream IOCL operates a 14,701 km network of crude, gas and product pipelines, with a capacity of Indian Oil and segment - storage 94.6 million metric tonnes per annum of oil and 20.0 million metric standard cubic meters per Gas sector and transportation day of gas. IOCL is the largest company, controls 11 out of 22 Indian refineries, and has a combined capacity of 80.7 MTPA. Downstream segment - refining, Reliance launched India’s 1st privately owned refinery in 1999 and has gained considerable processing and market share (30%). In January 2021, the company operated its plant at 96.1% capacity. marketing Nayara Energy Limited’s (NEL’s) Vadinar refinery has a capacity of 20 mmtpa, accounting for almost 10% of the total refining capacity. Notes: bcm - Billion Cubic Metres, mbpd - Million Barrels Per Day, mmscmd - Million Metric Standard Cubic Metre Per Day, mmtpa -- million metric tons per annum, ^As per IEA Source: BP Statistical Review 2020, US Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell 7
Oil supply and demand in India Imports and domestic oil production in India (mbpd) 0.68 0.64 0.72 0.64 0.74 0.61 4.41 4.53 4.54 4.28 4.06 3.96 0.15 0.90 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* Oil Imports Oil Production Diesel was the most consumed oil product in India and accounted for 39% of petroleum product consumption in 2019. It is used primarily for commercial transportation and further, in the industrial and agricultural sectors. Oil demand is expected to rise by 5.8 mbpd in 2040 from 5.27 mbpd in 2019. Oil demand increased 3.11% to 5.27 mbpd in 2019 from 5.11 mbpd the previous year. Rapid economic growth is leading to greater outputs, which in turn is increasing the demand of oil for production and transportation In FY21, crude oil imports decreased to 3.96 mbpd from 4.54 mbpd in FY20. Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, mbpd - Million Barrels Per Day, P - Provisional, ^As per OPEC, Based on 50 MMT = 1 MBPD, * - Until June 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2020 8
Sector Drivers 9
Gas supply and demand in India Total Gas Consumption in the Country (MMSCM) Domestic Gas Production and Imports (BCM) 70000 70.00 60000 60.00 64,451 64,144 60,798 60,646 59,170 57,367 50000 55,697 50.00 33.89 28.74 52,517 52,375 51,300 26.33 32.86 21.39 24.69 40000 40.00 30000 30.00 32.88 31.80 15,515 31.24 30.92 31.18 28.67 20000 20.00 10.00 7.56 10000 8.17 0 0.00 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* FY17 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* Gas production Gas Imports Demand is not likely to simmer down anytime soon, given strong economic growth and rising urbanisation. Gas consumption is projected to reach 143.08 bcm by 2040. The Government is planning to invest US$ 2.86 billion in the upstream oil and gas production to double the natural gas production to 60 bcm and drill more than 120 exploration wells by 2022. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India’s medium-term outlook for natural gas consumption remains solid due to rising infrastructure and supportive environment policies. Industrial consumers are expected to account for ~40% of India’s net demand growth. The demand is also expected to be driven by sectors such as residential, transport and energy. India’s natural gas imports increased at a CAGR of 9.0% between FY16 and FY21. LPG penetration rate of households reached ~97% in early 2020 compared with 56% in 2016. Note: F - Forecast, bcm - Billion Cubic Metres, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate, * - Until June 2021 Source: PPAC, BP Statistical Review 2020 10
Exports of petroleum products from India Product-wise Exports of Petroleum Products from India in FY22* Exports of Petroleum Products from India (MMT) (thousand metric tonnes) 80 9,000 8,000 70 7,000 7,659 60 65.5 66.8 65.7 6,000 60.5 61.1 3,413 5,000 50 56.8 4,000 1,565 40 3,000 1,181 2,000 704 512 30 124 1,000 5 1 1 0 - 20 14.7 0 MS! LPG Naphtha$ ATF# LDO SKO HSD Fuel Oil Petcoke / CBFS Others% Bitumen LOBS/ Lube Oil 10 0 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* India is one of the largest exporters of refinery products due to the presence of various refineries. Exports of petroleum products from India reached 56.8 MMT in FY21 from 60.5 MMT in FY16. The total value of petroleum products exported from the country increased to US$ 35.8 billion in FY20 from US$ 34.89 billion in FY19. HSD was the major export item among petroleum products, followed by MS, ATF and Naptha. Note: MMT - Million Metric Tonnes, P - Provisional, HSD - High speed Diesel, MS - Motor Spirit, ATF - Aviation Turbine Fuel, LPG - Liquefied Petroleum Gas, LDO - Light Diesel Oil, SKO - Superior Kerosene Oil, LOBS - Lubricating Oil Base Stocks, ^Others includes Hexane, Benzene, MTO (Mineral Turpentine Oil), Sulphur, etc, *- Until April 2021 Source: PPAC, BP Statistical Review 2020 11
Upstream segment: crude oil and gas production… (1/2) Annual Crude Oil Production (in MMT) Crude Oil Production (in MMT) 40 40.0 35 19.1 35.0 18.4 18.1 18.1 11.4 10.4 9.9 30 16.0 30.0 9.6 8.4 15.4 7.4 25 25.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.9 20.0 22.4 3.3 20 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.2 19.6 15 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.5 15.0 16.2 15.1 10 10.0 1.9 3.9 5.0 0.7 5 4.8 3.8 - - FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* Onshore Offshore ONGC OIL Pvt/JV Almost half of India’s crude oil production is from offshore fields, although this share is diminishing in the past few years as production from the large, ageing Mumbai High field has declined. In India, crude oil production stood at 30.5 MMT in FY21 and was 32.2 MMT in FY20 Onshore production accounted for 49.53%, while offshore contributed the remaining 50.47%. ONGC accounted for ~66.19% of the total crude oil production in India in FY21. Notes: MMT - Million Metric Tonne, JV - Joint Venture, P-Provisional, * - Until May 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 12
Upstream segment: crude oil and gas production… (2/2) Annual Gas Production (million metric standard cubic metre) Annual Gas Production (million metric standard cubic metre) 50,000 35,000 2,881 2,722 2,838 2,937 2,668 45,000 30,000 2,480 43,645.1 6,338 5,477 40,000 8,235 6,872 4,766 38,474.8 35,000 25,000 4,319 24,675 23,746 23,429 30,000 31,802.3 22,088 20,000 21,177 25,000 26,395.2 24,860.6 15,000 23,011.7 20,000 22,117.1 22,038.2 22,010.6 20,631.1 10,045.8 18,427.2 9,903.9 9,893.4 15,000 9,601.0 21,872 9,293.9 9,237.5 9,083.8 9,011.7 8,876.9 8,795.6 8,577.0 10,000 675 10,000 2,441 2,464.3 5,000 5,532.2 5,000 5,052 0 - FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY21 FY22* FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* FY20 Onshore^ Offshore ONGC Pvt/JV OIL Note: JV - Joint Venture, ^Including CBM production, * - Until June 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 13
Upstream segment: exploration and development activities Development drilling activities (FY19P) Exploration activities (FY19P) 1200 400 350 1000 266 649 300 800 250 600 200 149 150 400 100 338 200 85 165 50 59 0 63 0 Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore Wells Meterage ('000 metres) Wells Meterage ('000 metres) In FY19P, 1,228,000 metres of wells were explored and developed and 545 wells were drilled in the country. State-owned oil companies undertake most of the upstream drilling and exploration work. The Government is planning to invest US$ 2.86 billion in the upstream oil and gas production to double the natural gas production to 60 bcm and drill more than 120 exploration wells by 2022. Notes: P- Provisional, *OALP - Open Acreage Licensing Policy Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, BMI 14
Pipelines: crude pipeline network Shares in Crude Pipeline Network by Length Shares in Crude Pipeline Network by Capacity (out of 10,419 kms, as of June 01, 2021) (out of 147.9 mmtpa, as of June 01, 2021) IOCL ONGC 20.08% 25.36% OIL 40.97% IOC 6.09% 50.88% 12.31% ONGC OIL 11.45% 32.86% Others* Others* As of June 1, 2021, India had 10,419 kms of crude pipeline, with capacity of 147.9 mmtpa. In terms of length, IOCL accounts for 50.88% (5,301 kms) of India’s crude pipeline network. In terms of actual capacities, ONGC leads with 40.97%, followed by IOCL at 32.86%. Note: km - Kilometre, mmtpa - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, *Others includes HMEL, BPCL and Cairn Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 15
Pipelines: existing pipelines in India Length and capacity of products and crude oil pipeline by company (as of June 01, 2021) IOCL BPCL(1) HPCL(2) OIL ONGC Cairn HMEL Others (GAIL and Petronet India.) Total industry Length (kms) Product 9,400 2,241 3,775 654 - - - 2,395 18,465 Pipeline Crude oil 5,301 937 - 1,193 1,283 688 1,017 - 10,419 Pipeline Total 14,701 3,178 3,775 1,847 1,283 688 1,017 2,395 28,884 Capacity of Crude Oil Pipelines (mmtpa) Product 47.5 19.5 34.7 1.7 - - - 9.4 112.2 Pipeline Crude oil 48.6 7.8 - 9 60.6 10.7 11.3 - 147.9 Pipeline Total 94.6 27.3 34.7 10.7 60.6 10.7 11.3 9.4 260.1 Government of India is planning to invest Rs. 70,000 crore (US$ 9.97 billion) to expand the gas pipeline network across the country. Note: kms - Kilometres, mmtpa - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, (1)Includes Petronet Cochin-Coimbatore-Karur Product pipeline, (2)Includes Petronet Mangalore-Hassan-Bangalore Product Pipeline Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 16
Pipelines: refined products and LPG pipeline network Shares in Products Pipeline Network under Operation by Shares in products pipeline network under operation by length Length (out of 18,465 kms, as on June 01, 2021) (out of 17,016 kms, as on December 31, 2020) 1.82% 0.91% 6.13% GAIL IOC 12.97% GSPL 8.53% 3.54% HPCL PIL 12.14% 13.23% BPCL 50.91% Reliance OIL 69.39% IOCL 20.44% Others Others With 9,400 kms of refined products pipeline in India, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) leads the segment with 50.91%, as of June 01, 2021. Top three companies IOCL, HPCL and BPCL contribute more than 80% of the total length of product pipeline network in the country. As of December 31, 2020, Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) had the largest share (69.39% or 11,884 kms) of the country’s natural gas pipeline network (17,126 kms). In November 2020, oil regulator Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) simplified the country's gas pipeline tariff structure to make fuel more affordable for distant users and attract investment for building gas infrastructure. Note: km - Kilometre, mmtpa - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, LPG - Liquefied Petroleum Gas, IOC - Indian Oil Corporation, HPCL - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, BPCL - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, OIL - Oil India Limited, (1)Others include GAIL and Petronet India Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 17
Downstream segment: refinery crude throughput… (1/2) Refinery Crude Throughput (MMT) 300 250 88.20 91.16 88.04 89.50 91.09 88.53 88.66 200 88.27 88.23 81.18 78.00 74.44 81.38 150 169.16 164.80 161.70 38.29 48.54 154.30 160.77 33.43 134.22 134.73 144.20 143.80 100 122.58 130.57 108.03 112.5 112.17 112.13 115.11 50 0 FY10 FY21 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY22* Public sector Private sector India has 23 refineries - 18 are in the public sector, two in the joint sector and three in the private sector. India’s state refineries have upgraded their facilities to comply with a new government requirement to produce oil products with the equivalent of Euro VI emission standards. Crude oil throughput of public sector refineries increased at a CAGR of 2.06%, from 108.03 MMT in FY07 to 143.8 MMT in FY21. At the same time, crude oil throughput of private sector refineries recorded a CAGR of 6.24%, from 33.43 MMT to 70.0 MMT. The share of private sector refineries throughput in the total crude throughput grew from 29.99% in FY07 to 35.19% in FY20. Note: MMT - Million Metric Tonne, Public Sector includes IOCL ,BPCL ,HPCL, CPCL and ONGC, Private sector includes RIL and NEL, * - Until June 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 18
Downstream segment: refinery crude throughput… (2/2) Shares in India’s Total Refining Capacity Total Installed Refinery Capacity (MMT) (as of June 01, 2021) 300.00 4.60% IOC 250.00 6.04% 110.00 88.20 88.20 88.20 105.50 95.00 95.00 8.00% 27.89% RIL 200.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 93.00 76.50 BPCL 150.00 162.10 161.70 161.70 142.10 142.07 139.00 10.84% 135.07 249.9 MMT 100.00 120.07 120.07 120.07 120.07 HPCL 116.89 50.00 NEL 15.33% 0.00 ONGC 27.29% CPCL Public sector Private sector (incl JV) As of June 01, 2021, the sector’s total installed provisional refinery capacity stood at 249.9 MMT and IOC emerged as the largest domestic refiner, with a capacity of 69.7 MMT. In FY21, the top three companies, IOC, RIL and BPCL, contributed 70.6% to India's total refining capacity. Note: MMT - Million Metric Tonne; HPCL - Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd, BPCL - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, OIL - Oil India Limited, ONGC - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, IOCL - Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, CPCL - Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, * - Until June 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, PPAC 19
Downstream segment: petroleum products Production of Petroleum Products by Fractionators (TMT) 4,931.22 4,759.56 4,608.00 4,212.18 3,657.15 3,457.75 3,377.16 1,021.57 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22* Consumption of petroleum products in India increased to 213.7 MMT in FY20 from 194.60 MMT in FY17. Petroleum products derived from crude oil include light distillates such as LPG, naphtha; middle distillates such as kerosene; and heavy ends such as furnace, lube oils, bitumen, petroleum coke and paraffin wax. Production of petroleum products by fractionators reached 4,212.18 TMT in FY21. Note: MMT - Million Metric Tonne, TMT - Thousand Metric Tonne, P – Provisional, * - Until June 2021 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 20
Downstream segment: distribution and marketing The total number of OMC retail outlets increased to 77,331, as of Downstream distribution statistics (MMT) June 01, 2021 (P), from 59,595 in FY17. 250.0 In India, IOCL, as of June 01, 2021 (P), owned the highest number of retail outlets (32,177), followed by BPCL (18,652) and HPCL (18,692). 200.0 102.36 107.50 107.58 93.69 93.69 96.61 As of June 01, 2021 (P), there were 25,104 LPG distributors (under 97.36 109.72 150.0 97.36 PSUs) in India. 100.0 114.30 112.20 111.30 111.30 110.50 104.50 97.70 89.57 85.10 50.0 0.0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22# Product pipeline Natural Gas Pipeline* Capacity (mmtpa) Length (kms) Pipeline as of as of June 01, 2021 June 01, 2021 Crude Pipeline 147.9 10,419 Product Pipeline 112.2 18,465 Natural Gas Pipeline* 337.3 17,126 Note: MMT - Million Metric Tonne, mmtpa - Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum, OMC - Oil Marketing Companies, (P) - Provisional, PSU - Public Sector Unit, *- on December 31, 2020 for natural gas pipeline, #- on June 1, 2021 for product pipeline Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 21
State-wise list of CNG stations in the country State CNG Stations as of November 30, 2020 State CNG Stations as of November 30, 2020 Andhra Pradesh 72 Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan* 2 Assam 1 Madhya Pradesh & Uttar Pradesh* 2 Bihar 9 Maharashtra 397 Maharashtra & Gujarat 12 Chandigarh, Haryana, Punjab & 15 Himachal Pradesh* National Capital Territory of Delhi 421 (UT) Dadara & Nagar Haveli 7 Odisha 19 Daman and Diu 4 Puducherry & Tamil Nadu* 1 Daman and Diu & Gujarat 9 Punjab 69 Goa 4 Rajasthan 39 Gujarat 709 Tamil Nadu 2 Haryana 137 Telangana 73 Haryana & Himachal Pradesh* 2 Tripura 11 Haryana & Punjab* 4 Uttar Pradesh 340 Himachal Pradesh 1 Uttar Pradesh & Rajasthan* 25 Jharkhand 13 Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand* 1 Karnataka 37 Uttarakhand 10 Kerala 12 West Bengal 13 Madhya Pradesh 70 Total 2,543 Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas * Some of the GAs authorized by PNGRB span areas in more than one state; Compressed natural gas (CNG) 22
Key domestic oil and gas companies Total Income from Ownership Company Operations in FY20 (%) as of FY20 (US$ billion) 56.98% Indian Oil Corporation Limited 79.97 state-owned Reliance Industries Public Listed 87.1 Bharat Petroleum Corporation 54.31% 46.78 Limited state-owned 51.11% Hindustan Petroleum state-owned (through 37.83 Corporation Limited ONGC) 68.07% ONGC 13.57 state-owned 53.59% GAIL India Limited 9.43 state-owned 66.13% Oil India Limited 1.93 state-owned Note: : FY - Indian Financial Year from April-March Source: Company’s Annual Report 2019-20 23
Recent Trends and Strategies 24
Notable trends in the oil and gas sector 1. Coal Bed Methane (CBM) 5. Open Acreage • CBM policy was designed to be liberal and Licensing Policy investor-friendly. The 1st commercial • Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP), production of CBM was initiated in July which allows an explorer to study the data 2007 at about 72,000 cubic metres per day. available and bid for blocks of his choice, • Production in 2019-20 stood at 655.44 has been initiated to increase foreign million cubic metres. 5 participation by global E & P companies like . 1 Shell, BP, Conoco Phillips etc. • In January 2020, Open Acreage Licensing 2. Underground Coal Programme Bid Round-V offered 8 sedimentary basins and 11 blocks with a Gasification (UCG) total area of 19,789.04 sq.km. • The technology was first widely used in the US in 1800s and in India (Kolkata and Mumbai) in early 1900s. 2 4 4. Oil Pricing • UCG is currently the only feasible technology available to harness energy • Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting from deep unmineable coal seams Countries (OPEC) meets 78% of India's economically and in an eco-friendly crude oil demand, 59% LPG needs and manner. It reduces capital outlay, 3 ~38% LNG consumption as of 2020. operating costs and output gas expenses • In November 2020, the Indian by 25-50% vis-a-vis surface gasification. government urged OPEC to remove 3. Gas hydrates and bio-fuels pricing anomalies for different regions with a view to help the Corona-battered • The Government initiated the National Gas Hydrate global oil industry get back to normalcy. Programme (NGHP), a consortium of national E & P companies and research institutions, to map gas hydrates for use as an alternate source of energy. • Bio-fuels (bio-ethanol and bio-diesel) are alternate sources of energy from domestic renewable resources. These have lower emissions compared to petroleum or diesel. 25
Strategies adopted … (1/4) 1 Expansion To expand beyond the natural gas business, in July 2021, GAIL (India) Ltd. announced to invest ~Rs. 5,000 crore (US$ 670.18 million) to establish a portfolio of renewable energy targeting a capacity of at least 1 gigawatts and build plants for both compressed biogas and ethanol. In July 2021, IndianOil Petronas Pvt. Ltd. announced its plan to establish a new brand for auto fuels retailing in India to further expand its business operations in the country. In June 2021, the government announced that it will auction unmonetised large oil and gas fields of state-owned ONGC and OIL to boost hydrocarbon production. In February 2021, Petronet LNG announced its plans to increase in its Dahej terminal's capacity by 29% to 22.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to meet the rising demand. Key Indian oil retailers such as Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum have announced plans to increase the capacity of their outlets in rural areas in 2021. In February 2021, ONGC announced that by May 2021, it would increase natural gas output from a KG basin block to 2.5-3 million standard cubic meters per day. In February 2021, the government launched key oil & gas projects in Assam, such as INDMAX Unit at Indian Oil’s Bongaigaon Refinery, Oil India Limited's secondary tank farm at Madhuban, Dibrugarh and a ‘Gas Compressor Station’ at Hebeda Village, Makum and Tinsukia remotely from Dhemaji in Assam. In February 2021, the government launched key oil and gas projects such as the Ramanathapuram – Thoothukudi natural gas pipeline and Gasoline Desulphurisation Unit at Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited, Manali. As per the Union Budget 2019-20, under scheme ‘Kayakave Kailasa’, the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas enabled SC/ST entrepreneurs in providing bulk LPG Transportation. State run energy firms Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum and Indian Oil Corp have plans to spend US$ 20 billion on refinery expansions to add units by 2022. India targets US$ 100 billion worth investment in gas infrastructure by 2022 and to add another 228 cities to the gas distribution (CGD) network. This would include setting up RLNG terminals, pipeline projects, completion of the gas grid and setting up of CGD network in more cities. On September 15, 2020, the Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi inaugurated the three petroleum sector projects in Bihar which cost more than Rs. 900 crores (US$ 122 million) In October 2020, Torrent Gas Ltd. announced plan to spend Rs. 8,000 crore (US$ 1.1 billion) over the next five years to expand its urban gas operations with the aim of setting up 500 CNG dispensing pumps by March 2023. Source: Bloomberg reports, News Articles 26
Strategies adopted… (2/4) 2 Diversification • Oil companies are focusing on vertical integration for next stage of growth. For instance, oil producer Oil India Ltd. is planning to build and operate refineries, while Indian Oil is planning to enter oil and gas exploration • In July 2021, India diversified procurement for crude by announcing its first shipment from Guyana scheduled next month. This move also indicates a future roadmap for extended alliance with Guyana in the oil & gas sector. 3 Investments to enhance production • In July 2021, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) announced plan to establish its first-generation ethanol production plant in Telangana at an estimated investment of Rs. 1,000 crore (US$ 134.04 million). • The Indian oil and natural gas sector is likely to witness an investment of US$ 206 billion in the next eight to ten years. • Indian Oil Company (IOC) is planning to invest Rs. 1.43 lakh crore (US$ 22.19 billion) to double its oil refining capacity to 150 million tonnes by 2030. • ONGC plans to invest more than US$ 500 million in Mumbai High. • In February 2020, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) announced plans to invest Rs. 500 crore (US$ 71.54 million) at Chitradurga in Karnataka. • In December 2020, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) announced plans to invest Rs. 1,689 crore (US$ 228.81 million) in new projects in Andhra Pradesh. This includes Rs. 1,522 crore (US$ 206.19 million) on petro products infrastructure and Rs.167 crore (US$ 22.62 million) on LPG storage facilities. 4 Commercial use of oil • In October 2020, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) allowed Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) to commercially use 50% of the oil it had stored in Indian underground strategic reserves. • This flexibility will encourage the company to store more oil in the three strategic petroleum reserves built at Visakhapatnam, Mangalore, and Padur and will act as an insurance against supply and price disruptions. Notes: ISEER - Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio Source: News Articles, techARC1 27
Strategies adopted… (3/4) 5 Pilot project Initiated for Shale Gas Production in India • Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has started Shale Gas exploration by spudding the first Shale Gas well RNSG-1 in Burdwan district of West Bengal. • In 2018, Great Eastern Energy Corp (GEECL) announced to invest US$ 2 billion over the next ten years in West Bengal to explore shale gas reserves. • As of March 2017, 22 assessment wells (5 exclusive shale gas in Cambay basin and 17 dual objective wells) in 19 Petroleum Mining Lease (PML) blocks have been drilled and required data are being generated/evaluated for shale gas/oil assessment. 6 Move to non-conventional energy resources • The Government is planning to set up around 5,000 compressed biogas (CBG) plants by 2023. • In July 2021, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) announced to establish India’s first green hydrogen plant at Mathura refinery to introduce green hydrogen activities and projects in oil and gas sector in the country. • In July 2021, ONGC, an upstream oil company, and NTPC announced plan to expand the offshore wind energy development in India and accelerate presence in the renewable energy space. • JBM signed an MoU with the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG), Govt. of India, for the development of Compressed Biogas (CBG) Projects. • In December 2020, the Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas and Steel Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan laid the foundation stone for the Leafiniti Bioenergy’s CBG plant in the Bagalkot district of Karnataka. This plant will utilise 200 TPD (tonnes per day) of press mud and will be commissioned at an estimated cost of Rs. 42 crore (US$ 5.6 million). 7 More focus upon small companies • Private sector units like Adani, Sun Petrochemicals and few new entrants have bagged 1/3rd of small oil and gas fields. Source: CEAMA, India Retail Report, Business Line, IMAP India, News Sources 28
Strategies adopted… (4/4) 8 Innovate for India • In February 2021, IndianOil Corp. Ltd. signed a ‘statement of intent’ with Greenstat Hydrogen India Pvt. Ltd. to establish a centre of excellence for Hydrogen value chain and other related technologies such as hydrogen storage, fuel cells, etc. • In December 2020, the Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas and Steel Mr. Dharmendra Pradhan has appealed to the scientific community to Innovate for India (I4I) and create competitive advantages to make India ‘Aatmanirbhar’. 9 High Octane Petrol • In December 2020, Indian Oil launched a world-class premium grade Petrol (Octane 100) in India. Branded as XP100, the premium- grade petrol was launched in 10 cities. 10 ONGC Videsh • In June 2021, ONGC Videsh is in the process to raise US$ 525 million in overseas foreign money loans from a mixture of home and overseas lenders to repay bonds maturing in the subsequent months. • ONGC Videsh, the abroad arm of the state-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, is in discussion with half a dozen international and domestic banks for the loan and intends to close the deal this month and draw down next month. Source: CEAMA, India Retail Report, Business Line, IMAP India, News Sources 29
Growth Drivers 30
Growth drivers Growing demand Favourable business condition Government support Robust growth in domestic 100% FDI investment Abundant raw material market allowed Increasing demand for Skilled labour Favourable policies natural gas Notes: TCM - Trillion Cubic Metres, EandP - Exploration and Production Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, US Energy Information Administration, BP Statistical Review of World 2015 Energy, June 2012; BMI 31
Rising demand Crude oil consumption and forecast (MT) Natural gas consumption and forecast (BCM) 160 CAGR 3.60% CAGR 4.18% 600 140 143.08 500 120 500.00 400 100 80 300 60 200 40 58.10 221.56 100 20 0 0 2017 2040F 2018 2040F Energy demand of India is anticipated to grow faster than energy demand of all major economies on the back of robust economic growth.Consequently, India’s energy demand as a percentage of global energy demand is expected to rise to 11% in 2040 from ~6% in 2017. Crude oil consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.60% to 500 million tonnes by 2040 from 221.56 million tonnes in 2017. Natural Gas consumption is forecast to increase at a CAGR of 4.18% to 143.08 million tonnes by 2040 from 58.10 million tonnes in 2018. Diesel demand in India is expected to double to 163 million tonnes (MT) by 2029-30. As of May 20, 2020, Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) delivered 6.8 crore LPG cylinders to Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Package (PMGKP) beneficiaries. India’s oil demand is projected to rise at the fastest pace in the world to reach 10 million barrels per day by 2030, from 5.05 million barrel per day in 2020. According to government data, India's natural gas production increased by 22.7% YoY in April 2021, as Reliance Industries Ltd. and its partner, BP plc, increased production in the KG-D6 block on the east coast. Notes: F-Forecast, MT - Million Tonnes, BCM - Billion Cubic Metres Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019, BP Energy Outlook 2019 32
Regulatory overview of the industry 1 National Policy on Biofuels, 2018 • Proposed an indicative target of 20% blending of ethanol in petrol and 5% blending of biodiesel in diesel by 2030. • Promoted advanced biofuels through a viability gap funding scheme of Rs. 5,000 crore (US$ 745.82 million) in six years for 2G ethanol Bio refineries along with additional tax incentives. 2 Ethanol Procurement Policy • The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas released an ‘Ethanol Procurement Policy’ on a long-term basis under the ‘Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme’ (October 11, 2019), which covers modalities for long-term ethanol procurement, proposed mechanisms for long-term procurement contracts, pricing methodology and other topics. 3 Liquefied natural gas (LNG) policy • The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas released a draft LNG policy that aims to increase the country's LNG re-gasification capacity from 42.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) to 70 mtpa by 2030 and 100 mtpa by 2040. 4 Open Acreage Licensing Launched in June 2017, it allowed companies to carve out area for petroleum exploration and production. The policy, launched under Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), replaced New Exploration and Licensing Policy under which bidders did not have the freedom of carving out areas for E&P. Source: CEAMA, India Retail Report, Business Line, IMAP India, News Sources 33
FDI investments in petroleum and gas in India FDI Inflow in Petroleum and Natural Gas between April 2000 and September 2020 (US$ billion) 8.00 0.81 7.82 0.18 0.03 0.14 7.00 1.10 0.07 6.00 2.10 0.10 5.00 4.00 2.70 0.10 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 FY01-FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY01-FY20 FDI inflow in India’s petroleum and natural gas sector stood at US$ 7.92 billion between April 2000 and March 2021. India has invited global firms to invest in its strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) owing to the country’s rising energy consumption. India’s share in global energy consumption is set to rise from 7% to 12% in 2050. Source: Department Of Promotion Of Industry And Internal Trade 34
M&A activities in the Indian oil and gas sector Date announced Acquirer name Target name Value of deal (US$ million) Oil India Ltd. (54.16%), Engineers India Bharat Petroleum Corporation (Numaligarh Mar 2021 1,361 (4.4%) and Government of Assam (3.2%) Refinery 61.5% stake) Jan 2021 Total Adani Green Energy (20% minority stake) 2,500 Bharat Oman Refineries (BORL) Dec 2020 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Not disclosed (36.62% stake) East West Pipeline (EWPL) (Previously Mar 2019 Brookfield known as Reliance Gas Transportation 1,800 Infrastructure) Apr 2018 Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) Shell Exploration & Production, Oman 329 Feb 2018 ONGC HPCL (51.11% stake) 57,020.39 Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (10% stake in Feb 2018 ONGC Videsh 600 offshore oilfield) Aug 2017 Rosneft Essar Oil (49% stake) 1,290 Dec 2016 Oil and Natural Gas Corp's Gujarat State Petroleum Co's 1,200 Dec 2015 ONGC Videsh Ltd. (OVL) Vankor oil field 1,260 Jan 2015 Bharat Forge Mecanique Generale Langroise 12.82 Jun 2014 Gulf Petrochem Ltd. Sah Petroleums Limited 7.13 Mar 2014 IOCL Progress Energy Canada Ltd. Not disclosed Mar 2014 IOCL Progress Energy Canada Ltd. Not disclosed Mar 2014 IOCL Progress Energy Canada Ltd. Not disclosed Source: Thomson Banker, News Articles 35
Opportunities 36
Opportunities 1. Midstream segment 3. Upstream segment Expansion in the transmission network of gas pipelines. Locating new fields for exploration: 78% As of March 2021, Petroleum and Natural of the country’s sedimentary area is yet to be explored. 1 Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) authorised the ~33,764-km natural gas Increasing the share of natural gas: The pipeline network to develop a national gas government is working towards increasing grid and boost the availability of natural the share of gas from 6.2% (currently) to gas in India. 15% of the energy mix by 2030. LNG imports have increased significantly. Development of unconventional This provides an opportunity to boost resources: CBM fields in deep sea. production capacity. Opportunities for secondary/tertiary oil In light of mounting LNG production, huge producing techniques. Higher demand for skilled labour and opportunity lies for LNG terminal operation, engineering, procurement and construction services. 2 3 oilfield services and equipment. India is in the initial discussions with Russia for US$ 2-3 billion investment in upstream oil assets. 2. Down stream segment India is already a refining hub with 21 refineries, and expansion is planned for tapping foreign investment in export-oriented infrastructure, including product pipelines and export terminals. Development of City Gas Distribution (CGD) networks similar to Delhi and Mumbai’s CGDs. • India is set to expand India’s natural gas grid to 34,500 kms by adding another 17,000 km gas pipeline. The regasification capacity of the existing 42 MMT per annum will be expanded to 61 MMT per year by the year 2022. Indian companies are expected to spend Rs.100 billion (US$ 1.35 billion) over three years on 1,000 liquefied natural gas (LNG) stations along main roads and industrial corridors and in mining areas to cut diesel consumption. As per preliminary data of gasoline sales, fuel consumption in India registered growth in June 2021 and is expected to further recover by end-2021. Gasoline sales by state refiners stood at 2.12 million tonnes in June 2021, registering an increase of 5.7% YoY. 37
Key Industry Contacts 38
Contact information Name Address Contact person Telephone E-mail Oil Industry 3rd Floor, Tower C, Plot No. 2, Mr. Ajay Srivastava, 0120-2594630 Development Sector - 73, Noida, Uttar Financial Adviser and facao.oidb@nic.in 0120-2594603 Board (OIDB) Pradesh - 201301 Chief Accounts Officer Petroleum Conservation Sanrakshan Bhavan, 10 Bhikaji 91-11- 26198799 Research Cama Place, New Delhi - Mr. Alok Tripathi, ED pcra@pcra.org Ext.301 Association 110066 (PCRA) Ministry of Power, 4th floor, Bureau of Energy Mr. Abhay Bakre, 91-11- 26178316, SEWA Bhawan, RK Puram, dg-bee@nic.in Efficiency (BEE) Director General 91-11- 26179699 New Delhi - 110066 Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Oil Industry Safety 8th Floor, OIDB Bhawan, Plot Mr. Varanasi 0120-2593800 rao.vj@gov.in Directorate No 2, Janardhana Rao, ED Sector-73, Noida, Uttar Pradesh-201301 Ministry of Petroleum and Petroleum Planning Natural Gas, 2nd floor, Core-8, Mr. Vinod Kumar, and Analysis Cell SCOPE Complex, 7 Institutional Deputy Director - 011-24306153 webadm@ppac.gov.in (PPAC) Area, Lodhi Road, New Delhi - Information Technology 110003 Ministry of Petroleum and Directorate General Mr. Atanu Chakraborty, Natural Gas, OIDB Bhawan, 0120 - 2472001 dg@dghindia.org of Hydrocarbons Director General Plot No 2, Sector 73, Noida 39
Appendix 40
Glossary B/D (or bpd): Barrels Per Day MBPD (or mbpd): Million Barrels Per Day BCM (or bcm): Billion Cubic Metres CBM: Coal Bed Methane CGD: City Gas Distribution EandP: Exploration and Production FDI: Foreign Direct Investment FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March) FY20 implies April 2019 to March 2020 GoI: Government of India Rs.: Indian Rupee PM: Prime Minister LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas MMT (or MMT): Million Metric Tonne MMTPA (or mmtpa): Million Metric Tonnes Per Annum EBITDA: Earning Before Interest Taxes Depreciation Amortisation NRL: Numaligarh Refinery Limited CPCL: Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited HPCL: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited BPCL: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited 41
Glossary IOC: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd EOL: Essar Oil Ltd RPL: Reliance Petroleum Limited MRPL: Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited PCCK: Petronet Cochin-Coimbatore-Karur PMHB: Petronet Mangalore-Hassan-Bangalore OALP: Open Acreage Licensing Policy TOE (or toe): Tonnes of Oil Equivalent US$ : US Dollar ONGC: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India IOCL: Indian Oil Corporation Limited mn bbl: Million Barrels CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate JV: Joint Venture UCG: Underground Coal Gasification NGL: Natural Gas Liquids OMCs: Oil Marketing Companies NHGP: National Gas Hydrate Programme Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number 42
Exchange rates Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Exchange Rates (Calendar Year) Year Rs. Equivalent of one US$ Year Rs. Equivalent of one US$ 2004-05 44.95 2005 44.11 2005-06 44.28 2006 45.33 2006-07 45.29 2007 41.29 2007-08 40.24 2008 43.42 2008-09 45.91 2009 48.35 2009-10 47.42 2010 45.74 2010-11 45.58 2011 46.67 2011-12 2012 53.49 47.95 2013 58.63 2012-13 54.45 2014 61.03 2013-14 60.50 2015 64.15 2014-15 61.15 2016 67.21 2015-16 65.46 2017 65.12 2016-17 67.09 2018 68.36 2017-18 64.45 2019 69.89 2018-19 69.89 2019-20 70.49 2020 74.18 2020-21 72.59 2021* 74.48 Note: As of July 2021 Source: Reserve Bank of India, Average for the year 43
Disclaimer India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) engaged Sutherland Global Services Private Limited to prepare/update this presentation. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF, delivered during the course of engagement under the Professional Service Agreement signed by the Parties. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Sutherland Global Services’ Private Limited and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Sutherland Global Services Private Limited and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability, damages or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Sutherland Global Services Private Limited nor IBEF shall be liable for any special, direct, indirect or consequential damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation. 44
You can also read