Norfolk's Story March 2021 - Norfolk Insight
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
Norfolk’s Story
March 2021
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
Contents
1 Key findings 3
2 Introduction 9
2.1 Purpose of ‘Norfolk’s Story’ 9
2.2 Statement on data 9
2.3 Norfolk the place – an overview 10
3 Norfolk’s population 12
3.1 Current population profile 12
3.2 Future population profile 15
4 Norfolk – both urban and rural 20
4.1 Classification 20
4.2 Population by district 21
4.3 Population by age 23
5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk 25
5.1 Income 25
5.2 Deprivation indices 26
5.3 Child poverty 29
5.4 Fuel poverty 32
6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk 33
6.1 Children’s and young people’s health 33
6.2 Adults’ health and lifestyle 34
6.3 Disease and poor health 35
6.4 Life expectancy and causes of death 37
7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk 39
7.1 National context 39
7.2 Local picture of crime and disorder 40
8 Norfolk’s economy 43
8.1 Structure of the local economy 43
8.2 Economic competitiveness 49
8.3 Labour market 53
9 Education and skills in Norfolk 56
9.1 Educational attainment 56
9.2 Skills 59
10 Concluding remarks 61
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
1 Key findings
This report highlights key and cross-cutting issues for Norfolk such as changes in
Norfolk’s population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then
be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision.
It is a high-level report that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans. As
a result, Norfolk’s Story is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the
development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation.
This report contains the most up to date data and information available at the time of
publication. Much of the data used in this report is published annually or quarterly.
Stringent methodological practices are in place to ensure published data is accurate
and reliable, and this means that there is often a lag in publication of data.
Consequently, the data and analysis contained in this report will often not reflect the
changed landscape resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020.
However, this report provides data and analysis that could contribute toward a baseline
to measure the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Norfolk’s population
• Norfolk’s population is around 907,800, with more people living in King’s Lynn &
West Norfolk and fewer people living in Great Yarmouth and North Norfolk.
• Over the five years since 2014, Norfolk’s population has increased by 3.5%.
• Norfolk’s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English,
Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9%).
• The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and this
varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich.
• There are around 160 languages spoken in Norfolk. English is not the first
language of around 12,400 school children in the county.
• Norfolk’s population could rise by an estimated 60,600 over the decade to 2028 -
this is an increase of 6.7%.
• South Norfolk, Breckland and Broadland are projected to be the fastest growing
districts in the county.
• In the main, Norfolk has an ageing population. It is expected that around 27% of
the population will be aged 65 and over by 2028.
• The 85+ population of Norfolk is projected to grow significantly with a 24%
increase by 2028.
• Norfolk’s population is projected to exceed one million by 2036.
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
Norfolk – both urban and rural
• While Norfolk’s land area is around 93% rural, just over half our residents live in
an environment that can be classed as urban.
• Over the past few years, there has been a shift in where people live in Norfolk,
with an increase in numbers of people living in urban settings and a
corresponding reduction of people living in rural settings.
• All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in
urban areas and none of Norfolk’s districts is wholly rural.
• There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split at district level over recent
years, with people living in an urban setting markedly increasing in Breckland,
King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and South Norfolk.
• Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its urban/rural split, but conversely
with an increase in people living in a rural setting.
• People in Norfolk aged 45 to 64 and older people aged 65+ are more likely to live
in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0 to 15,
younger adults aged 16 to 29 and adults aged 30 to 44.
• Almost 60% of Norfolk people aged 65+ live in rural areas.
Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk
• The average annual gross pay in Norfolk is around £22,860. Over the last year
Norfolk’s pay gap has widened compared with national pay levels.
• Great Yarmouth has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in
the county, compared with the previous year, with South Norfolk having a
decrease.
• The Indices of Deprivation 2019 show that Norfolk has experienced an increase
in relative deprivation compared with 2015 and 2010.
• Of Norfolk’s 538 LSOAs, 97 have moved to a relatively more deprived decile
compared with 2015.
• Around 135,000 Norfolk residents live in areas which have been classified as
being among the 20% most deprived in England.
• The most deprived areas in Norfolk are largely centred around the urban areas
such as Norwich, Great Yarmouth, and King’s Lynn, as well as some market
towns such as Thetford, Dereham, and Watton.
• There are around 21,820 children living in families with Absolute low-income, and
around 28,150 children living in families with Relative low-income in Norfolk.
• Great Yarmouth, Norwich and North Norfolk each have higher rates of children
living in low-income families, for both Absolute and Relative low-income, than the
Norfolk average.
• There are around 45,600 Norfolk households in fuel poverty.
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
• Except for Norwich and Great Yarmouth, the level of households in fuel poverty
has increased (worsened) over the year for each of Norfolk’s districts.
• North Norfolk has the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the
county.
Health and wellbeing in Norfolk
• Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years has seen a reducing trend over the
past ten years for Norfolk.
• Norfolk has a significantly worse rate of women smoking during pregnancy (at the
time of delivery) than the England average.
• Over recent years, Norfolk’s level of childhood obesity has an increasing trend,
with the latest data showing one in five children are obese.
• Over recent years, prevalence of smoking in adults aged 18 and over for Norfolk
peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased until 2017 when the rate
started to increase.
• Two in three Norfolk adults are classed as overweight or obese.
• Three in ten Norfolk adults do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their
health.
• Overall, Norfolk people continue to rate their life satisfaction more highly than the
England average, although their anxiety level has worsened over the last year.
• For Norfolk, the numbers diagnosed with diabetes are getting closer to what
would be expected, suggesting that identification of the condition is improving.
However, the number (and proportion) of people diagnosed is increasing.
• For Norfolk during 2018/19, there were around 1,300 emergency admissions to
hospitals as a result of hip fractures.
• During the three-year period 2017 to 2019, in Norfolk around 265 people killed
themselves. The rate for emergency hospital stays due to self-harm in Norfolk is
significantly lower than the England average.
• Norfolk’s rate of admissions to hospital for alcohol-related conditions is not
significantly different to the England average.
• For Norfolk, around three in five people with dementia have been diagnosed.
• For Norfolk, life expectancy for males is 80.1 years and for females is 84.1 years,
with both being significantly better than the England average. Males are living in
poor health for an average of 17 years and females for 21 years.
Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk
• For most people Norfolk is very safe - it continues to have one of the lowest
crime rates in the country.
• Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police in Norfolk decreased by
around 0.5% over the 12 months to September 2020.
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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021
• The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 residents for Norfolk has decreased
to 71.6, which continues to be better (lower) than the national rate.
• Total police recorded crime has decreased in the twelve months to September
2020 for Norwich and Great Yarmouth, with the other five Norfolk districts
showing increases.
• Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates than the
Norfolk average.
• Norfolk’s Crime Severity Score is better (lower) than the scores for the region and
nationally, although the county has a higher score increase, indicating that the
seriousness of types of crimes committed in Norfolk is increasing at a faster rate
than regionally and nationally.
Norfolk’s economy
• The most significant industry sector in Norfolk, in employment terms, continues to
be the health sector.
• The second most significant industry sector in employment terms continues to be
the retail sector.
• The third most significant industry sectors in employment terms are jointly the
manufacturing sector and education sector.
• Both the accommodation & food service sector and the agriculture, forestry &
fishing sector in Norfolk employ at a higher level than the region and nationally.
• Sectors where Norfolk notably employs at a lower level than regionally and
nationally include the business administration & support service sector; the
professional, scientific & technical sector; and the information & communication
sector.
• Norfolk has a relatively high proportion of part-time jobs compared with national
and regional averages.
• Over the last ten years, the proportion of people employed in higher paid
occupations in Norfolk has been consistently much higher than other
occupational groups, with a generally increasing trend.
• Over the last year, people employed in higher paid occupations have increased
their share of employment; proportions of people employed in administrative,
secretarial and skilled trade occupations, and people employed in caring, leisure,
other service occupations, sales and customer service occupations have
remained stable; compared with a decline in the proportion of people employed
as process plant & machine operatives and in elementary occupations.
• During 2019, the estimated number of NINo registrations to adult overseas
nationals in Norfolk is around 6,550, which is an increase of around 1,500 on the
previous year.
• Broadland and South Norfolk stand out as areas with significantly lower rates of
NINo registrations compared with the other Norfolk districts. Norwich has
consistently the highest rate of NINo registrations annually.
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• Norfolk’s GVA per capita has steadily increased in recent years but is typically
much lower than that of the UK, and the county’s rate of GVA growth is slower.
• Overall, the average weekly gross pay for full-time employee jobs during 2020 for
Norfolk was £537.30, which is around nine per cent below national pay, although
the gap is narrowing.
• For Norfolk, the rate of new enterprise start-ups had been higher than the rate of
enterprise closures until 2018, when the rate of enterprise closures exceeded
that of enterprise start-ups. In the most recent year, the rates of enterprise start-
ups and enterprise closures for Norfolk reached a parity.
• Businesses in Norfolk have a better rate of survival over five years than the East
of England region and England averages, based on 2014 business start-ups.
• The trend is for Norfolk’s employment rate to be above the national rate and
below the regional rate.
• The trend is for Norfolk’s unemployment rate to be generally lower than the
national rate, although there has been a tendency in recent years to bounce
above the national rate.
• Over the last few months, Norfolk’s monthly Claimant Count rate for
unemployment related benefits has remained below (better than) the average for
the East of England region and for England. There was a steep rise in March
2020 when COVID-19 lockdown restrictions were first introduced in the UK and
the rate has plateaued over the last few months at around 5.0%. This follows a
similar regional and national trend.
Education and skills in Norfolk
• At EYFS level, the percentage of Norfolk pupils achieving the expected standard
(a good level of development) has continued to increase and for 2019 has
exceeded the national average.
• Pupils eligible for free school meals are less likely to reach the expected standard
in all EYFS early learning goals, compared with other pupils.
• At KS2 level, the percentage of Norfolk children reaching/working at the expected
standard for test outcomes and teacher assessments for 2019 is below national
averages for headline measures.
• Disadvantaged pupils are less likely to reach the expected standard at KS2 in
reading, writing and maths, compared with other pupils.
• At KS4 level, Norfolk pupils’ performance for 2019 is below national averages for
headline measures.
• Disadvantaged pupils are less likely to attain English and maths at grade 5 or
above, compared with other pupils.
• Norfolk has a lower rate of higher qualifications within the working age population
and is falling behind the region and nationally more quickly.
• Around 37,500 of Norfolk’s 16 to 64-year olds have no qualifications.
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• The proportion of Norfolk’s 16 and 17-year olds participating in education and
training is lower than for the region and nationally.
• There were fewer apprenticeship starts for Norfolk during 2018/19 compared with
the previous year. Sectors having the highest numbers of starts are the Business,
Administration and Law sector and the Health, Public Services and Care sector.
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2 Introduction
2.1 Purpose of ‘Norfolk’s Story’
Norfolk County Council works with a wide range of partners from the public, private,
voluntary and community sectors, in order to achieve shared ambitions and objectives.
Local authorities, together with other partners, collect a range of data and evidence to
support service decision making and resource allocation. Norfolk’s Story aims to bring
key evidence together, along with nationally published data, to provide a robust
analysis of Norfolk.
The analysis highlights key and cross-cutting issues such as changes in our population,
deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the
planning of local service strategies and provision. This means that policy making at all
levels can be based around a shared understanding of local challenges and help make
sure that interventions delivered by different partners are aligned and complementary.
As a result, Norfolk’s Story is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the
development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation.
2.2 Statement on data
The data contained in this report comes from a range of national and local sources and
are the most recent figures available to illustrate the current picture in Norfolk. Sources
and dates of data have been acknowledged throughout the report.
The data used in this report is at various geographical levels, depending on what level
the data is available at and the most appropriate level to display the data. Some data
will be at local authority or district level, some at Middle level Super Output Area
(MSOA) and some at Lower level Super Output Area (LSOA)1. In order to provide more
context, local and national comparator data has been included where possible.
It is acknowledged that this report will not include everything about Norfolk and the
people of Norfolk, but it does contain key information to present a contextual picture.
Additional information can be found within Norfolk’s Joint Strategic Needs Assessment
(JSNA), which is hosted on Norfolk Insight, which may deal with some areas in more
detail (http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk). Norfolk Insight is the county’s locality-focused
information system and the host of Norfolk’s online JSNA. This is a public-facing
website which presents key data for Norfolk and allows this to be downloaded.
Much of the data used in this report is published annually or quarterly. Stringent
methodological practices are in place to ensure published data is accurate and reliable,
and this means that there is often a lag in publication of data. Consequently, the data
and analysis contained in this report will often not reflect the changed landscape
resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. However, this report
1
Within England and Wales a Lower Layer (minimum population of 1,000 and maximum population of
3,000) and a Middle Layer (minimum population of 5,000 and maximum population of 15,000) were
introduced in 2004. Unlike electoral wards, these SOA layers are of consistent size across the country
and will not be subjected to regular boundary change.
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provides data and analysis that could contribute toward a baseline to measure the
ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
2.3 Norfolk the place – an overview
Norfolk is made up of seven local authority areas - Breckland District; Broadland
District; Great Yarmouth Borough; King’s Lynn & West Norfolk Borough; North Norfolk
District; Norwich City; and South Norfolk District (Figure 2.1). At around 551,000
hectares Norfolk is the fifth largest county in England,2 with a population of around
907,8003 and 401,800 households4. Norwich is the only major city in the county and
there are also three large towns - Great Yarmouth, King’s Lynn and Thetford. The
estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has increased
from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.8% in 2019, with the corresponding reduction of people living
in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.2% in 2019.5
Figure 2.1: Map showing Norfolk district boundaries
Source: Norfolk County Council
2
ONS Open Geography Portal, Standard Area Measurements (2016) for Administrative Areas in the
United Kingdom (2019)
3
ONS, mid-2019 population estimates
4
ONS, 2018-based Household Projections in England
5
ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and ONS population density and land area measures 2014
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Norfolk’s natural environment is made up of a combination of outstanding coastline
(much of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), some of the
unique and internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and
woodland. The Broads is a nationally designated area of national park equivalent
status, where the Broads Authority is the local planning authority and has special
responsibilities for the area’s management.
Norfolk has around 6,100 miles of road. In terms of primary road transport connections,
the county has no motorways, but there are strategic trunk roads that provide road
connections to the rest of the region and the wider UK. The A47 trunk road crosses the
county west to east, linking to Peterborough and the midlands. The A17, although not a
trunk road, provides a main road link westward to Lincolnshire and the north. The A11
trunk road runs south west, from Norwich to London and the south east of England via
the M11/M25 (and via the A14 links with Cambridge). The A12 connects the eastern
end of the A47 at Great Yarmouth with Lowestoft in Suffolk. Although not a trunk road,
south of Lowestoft it connects to Ipswich, Colchester, Chelmsford and London. The
A1270 Broadland Northway (previously known as the Norwich Northern Distributor
Road NDR) is a dual-carriageway linking the A47 to the south east of Norwich to
Norwich International Airport to the north of the city, before finishing at the A1067
Fakenham Road to the north west of the city.
There are rail links to Norwich from the south and south west and there is a separate
line from the south to King’s Lynn. These routes link the county to Cambridge, London
and the south east. There are also rail connections to the midlands and the north via
Ely and Peterborough. Rail services continue beyond Norwich to Cromer and
Sheringham on the north coast and to Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft (Suffolk) on the
east coast. But there are no direct railway lines between King’s Lynn and Norwich and
rail connections between these centres are via Ely.
Ports at Great Yarmouth and King’s Lynn provide for offshore industries and for freight
movement to and from European ports and beyond. Great Yarmouth provides the
shortest sea crossing between the UK and the Netherlands and is England’s principal
support port for offshore energy in the Southern North Sea and is the closest viable
deep-water harbour to the East Anglia Array wind farm project. There are also several
minor harbours along the north coast which serve smaller vessels and support fishing,
leisure and tourism sectors. In addition to the Norfolk ports there are accessible
seaports just beyond our county boundaries, at Wisbech in Cambridgeshire and
Lowestoft in Suffolk.
The international airport at Norwich has regular connections within the UK and with the
hub at Schiphol in the Netherlands providing routes to worldwide destinations.
Norfolk has a large amount of planned growth over the next few years. Planned growth
by 2036 includes 88,000 new jobs, 30,000 successful new businesses and 140,000
new homes.6
6
New Anglia LEP Economic Strategy for Norfolk and Suffolk (November 2017) –
https://newanglia.co.uk/economic-strategy-for-norfolk-and-suffolk/
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3 Norfolk’s population
It is important to understand the current and projected population profile of the county,
in order to help plan public services and allocate resources now and for the future. This
section gives a picture of the local demographic.
3.1 Current population profile
The latest population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
are for mid-2019. Norfolk’s population is an estimated 907,8007 and the figures by local
authority are given in Table 3.1. This is an increase of around 4,100 compared with the
mid-2018 population, or an increase of 0.5%; Figure 3.1 shows that Norfolk’s annual
population increase has slowed over the last four years. Over the last five years since
2014, Norfolk’s population has increased by 3.5% (or around 30,400 people),
compared with an increase of 3.6% in the East of England region and 3.6% in England.
Table 3.1: Estimated population, mid-2018 and mid-2019
Local authority area Mid-2018 estimate Mid-2019 estimate
(thousands) (thousands)
Breckland 139.3 140.0
Broadland 129.5 130.8
Great Yarmouth 99.4 99.3
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 151.8 151.4
North Norfolk 104.6 104.8
Norwich 141.1 140.6
South Norfolk 138.0 140.9
Norfolk 903.7 907.8
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates
Note: figures may not equal due to rounding
7
ONS mid-2019 population estimates
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Figure 3.1: Norfolk annual population change, mid-2012 to mid-2019
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates
Figure 3.2 shows Norfolk’s population by percentage breakdown for each five-year age
group, by sex8. This shows that currently, the population is made up of slightly more
males in the younger age groups, until a gender parity is reached around age 30. From
this point onwards, there are slightly more females in each age group, becoming rather
more apparent for those aged 80 and over.
Over the five-year period from 2014, in terms of broad age groups, numbers of children
and young people in the county (aged 0-15) increased by around 7,000 (increase of
4.7% compared with an increase of 5.0% nationally); numbers of working age adults
(aged 16-64) increased by around 6,000 (increase of 1.1% compared with an increase
of 1.9% nationally); and numbers of older people (aged 65 and over) increased by
around 17,400 (increase of 8.5% compared with an increase of 8.6% nationally).
The estimates for mid-2019 confirm that Norfolk’s population has a much older age
profile than England as a whole, with 24.5% of Norfolk’s population aged 65 and over,
compared with 18.4% in England. Children and young people (aged 0 to 15) make up
17.0% of Norfolk’s population (compared with 19.2% nationally) and working age adults
(aged 16 to 64) make up 58.5% (compared with 62.4% nationally).
8
ONS mid-2019 population estimates
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Figure 3.2: Proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by five-year age group,
mid-2019
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates
Figure 3.3 shows population density (persons per square kilometre) in Norfolk, by
ward. The urban centres stand out as being more densely populated (represented by
the darker coloured areas on the map), but in addition to lower density rural areas the
map also shows moderately high densities in several contiguous areas – particularly in
the vicinity of Norwich and Great Yarmouth.
Figure 3.3: Norfolk population density at ward level
Source: ONS
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Norfolk’s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh,
Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9% in the 2011 Census). A
further 0.1% are Gypsy or Irish Travellers and 3.5% Other White. The proportion of
people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and at local authority level this
figure varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich.
In terms of national identity, the 2011 Census shows that 95% of people are associated
in some way with a UK, British or English identity, and the remaining five per cent with
other nationalities only. Around 22,900 (3.5% of passports held) are for EU countries
(after the UK and Ireland are excluded).
There are around 160 languages spoken as a first language other than English, by
Norfolk school children. Polish is the most widely spoken first language other than
English across Norfolk’s school children, with Lithuanian being the second most widely
spoken and Portuguese the third. Around 40% of all the county’s 12,400 children who
have a first language other than English speak one of Polish, Lithuanian or Portuguese
as a first language. Norwich has the greatest language diversity in the county with
around 130 languages spoken by school children as a first language other than
English, compared with North Norfolk, where around 50 languages are spoken.9
Although the number of people in Norfolk identifying as Christian has fallen over the
last decade, Christianity remains the main faith in the county (61% in the 2011
Census). Numbers of people identifying as Buddhist, Hindu and Muslim have increased
in the last decade, as have those with no religion.
3.2 Future population profile
To help plan public services and allocate resources for the future, we need an informed
estimate of what Norfolk’s population is likely to be over the long term. ONS prepares a
trend-based sub-national population projection for each local authority in the country,
and the current projections are 2018-based projections to 2044. The purpose of these
projections is to indicate how the population could change if recent past trends are
assumed to continue. The results are shown in Table 3.210.
On this basis, from 2018 to 2028 there is projected growth of around 60,600 people in
Norfolk – this is an increase of 6.7% which is above the East of England projected
increase of 5.0% and above the national projected increase of 5.0%. Looking further
ahead, there is projected growth from 2018 to 2043 of around 126,200 people in
Norfolk – this is an increase of 14.0% which is above the East of England projected
increase of 10.3% and above the national projected increase of 10.3%. For both
timescales, the largest increase in numbers is projected to be in South Norfolk, and the
smallest increase in numbers is projected to be in Great Yarmouth. Norfolk’s population
is projected to exceed one million by 2036.
9
NCC October 2020 School Census from LA maintained schools, academies, special schools and free
schools
10
ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
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Table 3.2: Projected population to 2028 and 2043
(thousands) 2018-2028 2018-2043
2018 2028 2043 increase increase
Local authority area Number % Number %
Breckland 139.3 151.2 164.4 11.9 8.6 25.1 18.0
Broadland 129.5 139.7 150.9 10.2 7.9 21.4 16.5
Great Yarmouth 99.4 102.6 106.8 3.2 3.2 7.4 7.5
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 151.8 155.4 160.2 3.6 2.3 8.4 5.5
North Norfolk 104.6 110.7 118.1 6.1 5.9 13.6 13.0
Norwich 141.1 146.3 152.4 5.1 3.7 11.2 8.0
South Norfolk 138.0 158.4 177.1 20.4 14.8 39.1 28.3
Norfolk 903.7 964.2 1029.9 60.6 6.7 126.2 14.0
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
Note: figures may not equal due to rounding
The age structure and distribution around the county of that future population is also
useful to know when long-term planning for future services. Overall, Norfolk’s
population is projected to increase over the ten years to 2028 by around 60,600 people,
or around 6.7% (Table 3.3). Norfolk’s oldest age groups are projected to grow the
quickest over the ten years to 2028, with numbers of 75 to 84-year-olds projected to
increase by around 37% and numbers of those aged 85 and over projected to increase
by around 24%. Numbers of those aged 0 to 14 are projected to fall by around two per
cent, with all other age groups projected to increase over the next ten years. Of course,
the age structure of the population varies across Norfolk’s local authority areas, but in
the main, looking forward to 2028, Norfolk continues to have an ageing population.
Table 3.3: Norfolk projected population change 2018-2028 by broad age group
(thousands) 2018 2028 2018-2028 change
Age group Number %
0-14 144.2 141.4 -2.8 -2.0
15-29 150.7 156.6 5.9 3.9
30-44 150.2 163.7 13.5 9.0
45-64 239.3 243.0 3.8 1.6
65-74 117.9 124.3 6.4 5.4
75-84 71.1 97.6 26.5 37.3
85+ 30.3 37.7 7.4 24.3
All ages 903.7 964.2 60.6 6.7
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
Note: figures may not equal due to rounding
Norfolk’s population aged 65 and over (around 24% of the population in 2018-based
sub-national population projections) is projected to increase to around 27% by 2028.
Over the ten years to 2028, the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by
around 40,300 people, or an increase of around 18.4% (Table 3.4). The highest
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percentage increases are in South Norfolk and Breckland and the lowest (and starting
from a lower base) is in Norwich.
Table 3.4: Projected increase in population aged 65 and over, 2018 to 2028
(thousands) 2018 2028 2018-2028 change
Local authority area Number %
Breckland 34.5 42.0 7.6 21.9
Broadland 33.2 39.2 6.0 18.1
Great Yarmouth 24.0 28.2 4.2 17.5
King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 39.2 45.2 6.0 15.3
North Norfolk 34.3 40.3 6.0 17.4
Norwich 21.0 23.7 2.8 13.3
South Norfolk 33.1 40.9 7.8 23.5
Norfolk 219.3 259.5 40.3 18.4
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
Note: figures may not equal due to rounding
Norfolk’s population aged 85 and over (around 3.4% of the population in 2018-based
sub-national population projections) is projected to increase to around 4.0% by 2028.
Over the ten years to 2028, the population aged 85 and over is projected to increase by
around 7,400 people, or an increase of around 24.3% (Table 3.5). The highest
percentage increases are in South Norfolk and Breckland and the lowest is in Norwich.
This age group is the most likely to require social care, so increases in the size of this
older group are likely to have a high impact on the demand for social care services.
Table 3.5: Projected increase in population aged 85 and over, 2018 to 2028
(thousands) 2018 2028 2018-2028 change
Local authority area Number %
Breckland 4.7 6.1 1.4 29.9
Broadland 4.6 5.8 1.2 26.5
Great Yarmouth 3.2 4.0 0.8 24.1
King’s Lynn & West Norfolk 5.1 6.1 1.0 19.5
North Norfolk 5.0 6.0 1.0 20.9
Norwich 3.3 3.7 0.4 10.9
South Norfolk 4.5 6.0 1.6 35.3
Norfolk 30.3 37.7 7.4 24.3
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
Note: figures may not equal due to rounding
The effects of the projected population change by broad age group are illustrated at
Figure 3.4. Population growth over the ten years to 2028 as a whole is heavily
influenced by growth in the 65+ population, though less so for Norwich. Populations are
projected to reduce in the 0 to 24 age group for Great Yarmouth, King’s Lynn & West
Norfolk and North Norfolk. Populations are projected to reduce in the 25 to 64 age
group for Great Yarmouth, King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and Norwich.
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Figure 3.4: Projected population change (%) by broad age group, 2018-2028
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
Figure 3.5 goes on to illustrate how these broad age groups are projected to vary
between local authority areas in 2028. The two divergent cases are North Norfolk and
Norwich. In the former there is projected to be a high proportion of the population aged
65 and over, related in part to the district’s popularity as a retirement area. In the latter
there is projected to be a high proportion aged under 25, related in part to the area’s
large student population and the tendency of graduates to remain in the area.
Figure 3.5: Projected broad age groups as percentage of population, 2028
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
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Looking further ahead, Figure 3.6 shows Norfolk’s population by percentage
breakdown for each five-year age group for 2018 compared with projections for 2043,
split by males and females. As a proportion of Norfolk’s whole population, the county’s
oldest age groups are projected to grow, compared with many of the other age groups
which are projected to reduce.
In short, going forward, Norfolk’s population will have a much older profile than now.
Figure 3.6: Projected proportion of males and females in Norfolk, by age group,
2018 compared with 2043
Source: ONS 2018-based sub-national population projections
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4 Norfolk – both urban and rural
We tend to think of Norfolk as being a rural county with great expanses of green open
space. We have a stunning natural environment from the outstanding coastline (much
of which is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), to the unique and
internationally famed Norfolk Broads and valuable heathland and woodland such as
Thetford Forest and The Brecks. But the picture is more complex than that.
4.1 Classification
Each LSOA in England has a rural or urban classification – for Norfolk there are four
rural classifications and one urban classification - assignments of LSOA/MSOA to rural
or urban categories are made by reference to the category to which the majority of their
constituent Output Areas (OA) are assigned. In the rural-urban classification (RUC) at
OA level, output areas are treated as ‘urban’ if they were allocated to a 2011 built-up
area with a population of 10,000 or more. On this basis, Figure 4.1 shows Norfolk to be
extremely rural, in particular with a good many sparse rural areas in the north of the
county, although this doesn’t tell us what proportions of people are living in each type of
area.
Figure 4.1: Rural and urban areas of Norfolk, by LSOA
Source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
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Table 4.1 shows how the county’s population and land area are divided between each
of the area types. Norfolk’s land area is around 93% rural, including smaller towns and
their fringes, villages and hamlets, and this area includes a little under half the county’s
population. The remaining seven per cent of the land area is classed as urban and
includes a little over half the county’s population. The concept of sparsity is essentially
one of population density, and around 88% of the county is classed as less sparse,
though this includes 95% of the population.
Norfolk’s population has seen a shift over recent years, with an increase in numbers of
people living in urban and less sparse town and fringe settings, and a corresponding
decrease in numbers of people living in sparse town and fringe and village settings.
The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has
increased from 47.5% in 2010 to 50.8% in 2019, with the corresponding reduction of
people living in a rural setting from 52.5% in 2010 to 49.2% in 2019.
Table 4.1: Norfolk urban and rural area types, mid-2019
Wider area Narrower area type Mid-2019 % of mid- % of
type population 2019 total
population land area
Urban City and town 461,500 50.8 7.2
Rural Town and fringe - less sparse 180,800 19.9 15.3
Town and fringe - sparse 22,200 2.4 1.4
Village and dispersed - less sparse 224,300 24.7 65.8
Village and dispersed - sparse 19,000 2.1 10.3
Total 907,800 100.0 100.0
Urban 461,500 50.8 7.2
Rural 446,300 49.2 92.8
Total 907,800 100.0 100.0
Less sparse 866,600 95.5 88.3
Sparse 41,200 4.5 11.7
Total 907,800 100.0 100.0
Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
4.2 Population by district
All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban
areas, and none of Norfolk’s districts is wholly rural (Table 4.2). So, while most of
Norfolk looks rural, more than half our residents live in an environment that can be
classed as urban. Figure 4.2 illustrates the broad urban/rural split of each area.
There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split at district level over recent years.
The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has markedly
increased in three districts since 2010. In Breckland, 43.1% live in an urban setting in
2019 compared with 33.7% in 2010; in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk, 42.4% live in an
urban setting compared with 33.4% in 2010; and in South Norfolk, 35.8% live in an
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urban setting compared with 22.3% in 2010. Great Yarmouth also has a marked
change in its population, but conversely with a shift in the other direction, with 33.6%
living in a rural setting, compared with 28.2% in 2010.
Table 4.2: Norfolk urban and rural population, mid-2019
Local authority area Rural Urban Total
Number % Number %
Breckland 79,600 56.9 60,400 43.1 140,000
Broadland 63,800 48.8 67,000 51.2 130,800
Great Yarmouth 33,400 33.6 66,000 66.4 99,300
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 87,200 57.6 64,200 42.4 151,400
North Norfolk 91,900 87.7 12,900 12.3 104,800
Norwich 0 0.0 140,600 100.0 140,600
South Norfolk 90,400 64.2 50,500 35.8 140,900
Norfolk 446,300 49.2 461,500 50.8 907,800
Note: Figures may not equal due to rounding
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
Figure 4.2: Norfolk’s rural and urban population, mid-2019
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
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4.3 Population by age
There are some differences in the age profiles of Norfolk’s urban and rural population,
and these should influence the decisions we make about access to services and
resource allocation. Figure 4.3 shows that middle aged (45-64) and older people (65+)
are more likely to be found in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of
children aged 0-15, younger adults aged 16-29 and adults aged 30-44. It is also worth
noting that almost 60% of people aged 65+ live in rural areas.
There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split by broad age group over recent
years. The estimated proportion of Norfolk’s population living in an urban setting has
increased since 2010 for each of the broad age groups.
Figure 4.3: Rural and urban population of Norfolk by age, mid-2019
Note: the sum of all the bars is 100 per cent of the Norfolk population
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
There is variation at local authority area level. Figure 4.4 shows that the 45-64 and 65
and over age groups are typically greater in number in the rural parts of each area than
the urban parts. Figure 4.5 shows the large number of 16-29-year olds in Norwich,
which is entirely urban.
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Figure 4.4: Age structure of rural areas, mid-2019
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
Figure 4.5: Age structure of urban areas, mid-2019
Source: ONS mid-2019 population estimates; and DEFRA Rural-urban classification code for small
areas, 2011
The information in this section shows that generally there are marked differences
between Norfolk’s urban and rural populations when we look at broad age groups. This
type of information should influence the decisions we make about access to services
and resource allocation. But we also know that not everyone classed as ‘older’, for
example, needs the same level of assistance or care. Chapter 5 about deprivation and
poverty goes on to identify further differences across the county that could affect the
way services are delivered.
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5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk
Issues related to deprivation and poverty are often intergenerational and can become
entrenched through an ongoing cycle of inequality and disadvantage. This can often
lead to low educational achievement, poor health, economic inactivity and failure to
reach full potential in life. Tackling these issues and breaking the cycle of disadvantage
should therefore have important benefits for future generations, who will then
experience greater opportunities.
5.1 Income
The average median11 annual gross pay for all Norfolk employees was around £22,860
in 2020 (provisional data) – an increase of 0.2% on the previous year (Table 5.1). This
compares with higher annual gross pay for the East of England of around £26,700 and
for England of around £26,060 in 2020.12 Over the last year, Norfolk’s pay gap has
widened, compared with national pay.
For the available 2020 data, South Norfolk and Norwich have higher than Norfolk
average pay, with Great Yarmouth having the lowest average pay in Norfolk; although
data for Broadland is unavailable. Great Yarmouth has had the highest average pay
increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with South
Norfolk having a decrease; although data for Broadland and North Norfolk is
unavailable.
Table 5.1: Annual median gross pay for all employees, 2020 (provisional data)
Area Median Gross Annual percentage
annual pay (£) change
Breckland 22,851 1.5
Broadland estimate unreliable estimate unreliable
Great Yarmouth 20,944 5.3
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 22,390 1.9
North Norfolk 21,941 estimate unreliable
Norwich 23,176 -0.2
South Norfolk 23,735 -5.7
Norfolk 22,857 0.2
East of England 26,697 2.4
England 26,055 3.6
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2020, ONS – Table 8.7a
11
The median is the value below which 50% of jobs fall. It is ONS's preferred measure of average
earnings as it is less affected by a relatively small number of very high earners and the skewed
distribution of earnings. It therefore gives a better indication of typical pay than the mean.
12
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 2020 (provisional), ONS – Table 8.7a
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/p
laceofresidencebylocalauthorityashetable8
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5.2 Deprivation indices
The English Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD2019), produced by the Ministry of
Housing, Communities & Local Government, identifies relative deprivation using a wide
range of indicators. The IoD2019 contains a series of domains, indices and a multiple
index (IMD), designed to measure different aspects of deprivation at LSOA level. It is
important to remember that not all deprived people live in deprived areas and not
everyone living in a deprived area is deprived. Variations within local authorities may be
at least as significant as variations between them. These are relative measures of
deprivation as it is impossible to tell whether a change in an area’s score compared
with previous indices - and hence its rank – is a real change in the level of deprivation
in an area or due to the scores of other areas going up or down.
Headline analysis of the IoD2019 shows13:
• The most recent IMD was released in September 2019. Norfolk ranked the 84th
relatively most deprived upper tier local authority out of 151 in total, based on the
rank of average scores measure, with a rank of 1 being the most relatively deprived.
• In 2015, Norfolk ranked the 88th relatively most deprived local authority, and 97th in
the 2010 IMD, showing an increase in relative deprivation over time.
• The domain of the IMD where Norfolk is the relatively least deprived is Crime, where
Norfolk is ranked 132 out of 151 upper tier local authorities, indicating that Norfolk is
a relatively safe place to live.
• Across all domains, Norfolk is the relatively most deprived in the Education, Skills,
and Training domain with a rank of 34 out of 151 upper tier local authorities, and the
Barriers to Housing and Services domain with a rank of 54.
• Areas in Broadland and South Norfolk are the relatively least deprived areas, with
no LSOAs in the most relatively deprived quintile.
• Norwich remains a relatively deprived area, apart from the south west of the city
around Eaton.
13
Norfolk County Council English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 – A county, district, and CCG
summary, LSOA analysis, and comparison to 2015 release, (July 2019) -
https://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/IMD_2019_Report_V2.pdf
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Figure 5.1 shows Norfolk’s rank across all the domains of the IoD2019, plus the overall
measure (IMD), the supplementary Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index
(IDACI), and the Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI). This is
based on the rank of average scores measure, with a rank of 1 being the most
relatively deprived upper tier local authority and a rank of 151 being the least relatively
deprived.
Figure 5.1: Norfolk rank for each domain of the Indices of Deprivation, 2019
Source: Norfolk County Council English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 – A county, district, and
CCG summary, LSOA analysis, and comparison to 2015 release, (July 2019)
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Figure 5.2 shows Norfolk neighbourhoods (LSOAs) by their national deprivation
quintile classification. For Norfolk, there are estimated to be around 135,000 people
living in the nationally most deprived 20% of LSOAs, or around 15% of the Norfolk
population. These are largely centred around the urban areas such as Norwich, Great
Yarmouth, and King’s Lynn, as well as some market towns such as Thetford, Dereham,
and Watton, despite there being less deprived areas just outside the market towns. In
comparison, around 117,000 of the Norfolk population live in the 20% relatively least
deprived LSOAs, which are mainly in South Norfolk and outside Norwich city in
Broadland.
Figure 5.2: national deprivation quintile for Norfolk LSOAs Index of Multiple
Deprivation, 2019
Source: Norfolk County Council English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 – A county, district, and
CCG summary, LSOA analysis, and comparison to 2015 release, (July 2019)
Figure 5.3 shows a map of Norfolk indicating which LSOAs have changed decile to a
relatively more or less deprived decile between the 2015 and 2019 IMD releases.
There have been changes across the county and changes have not been localised to
one area. Comparing Norfolk’s 538 LSOAs between the 2015 and 2019 IMD deciles,
95 (17.7%) moved to a relatively less deprived decile, 97 (18.0%) moved to a relatively
more deprived decile, and 346 (64.3%) remained within the same IMD decile. No LSOA
moved more than two deciles between the two IMD releases for the overall measure of
deprivation.
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Figure 5.3: Relative movement of LSOAs across Norfolk between deciles
comparing IMD 2019 with IMD 2015
Source: Norfolk County Council English Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2019 – A county, district, and
CCG summary, LSOA analysis, and comparison to 2015 release, (July 2019)
For more detailed information and analysis of deprivation and inequalities in Norfolk,
click here to go to Norfolk Insight14 and
click here to go to the Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government website 15
5.3 Child poverty
Research shows that children who grow up in poverty face a greater risk of having poor
health, being exposed to crime and failing to reach their full potential in life. With the
associated costs of tackling these issues, child poverty can impact significantly on
public finances as well as having a negative effect on individuals and communities.
Tackling child poverty will improve the experiences of many children, who will then
experience greater opportunities and social inclusion. As a result, these children should
have better outcomes, particularly health and educational attainment, in childhood and
14
http://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/
15
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019
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beyond. Breaking the cycle of disadvantage should therefore have important benefits
for future generations.
The Children in low-income families statistics16 complement and are calibrated to
DWP’s Households Below Average Income (HBAI) statistics, which contains the
headline measures for children in low-income households at a National and Regional
level, by providing local area statistics. A family must have claimed one or more of
Universal Credit, Tax Credits or Housing Benefit at any point in the year to be classed
as low-income in these statistics. Relative low-income measures families in low-income
in the reference year, whereas Absolute low-income measures families in low-income
based on what low-income looked like in 2010/11. Income is less than 60% of median
income Before Housing Costs (BHC) and is equivalised to adjust for family size and
composition.
Figure 5.4 shows that for 2018-19, the proportion of children aged under 16 living in
families with Absolute low-income is higher in Norfolk (14.3%) compared with the East
of England region (12.1%) and lower than England (15.3%). In terms of children living
in families with Relative low-income, Norfolk (18.4%) is higher compared with the East
of England region (15.4%) and the same as England (18.4%)17. For Norfolk, this means
that there are around 21,820 children aged under 16 living in families with Absolute
low-income, and around 28,150 children living in families with Relative low-income.
Figure 5.4: % of children aged under 16 living in low-income families, 2018-19
Source: Norfolk Insight DWP/ONS statistics
16
DWP Children in Low-Income Families statistics - https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/children-in-
low-income-families-local-area-statistics-201415-to-201819
17
Norfolk Insight DWP statistics - https://www.norfolkinsight.org.uk/deprivation/#page3
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Some areas of the county have higher rates of children living in low-income families
than others. For 2018-19, Great Yarmouth, Norwich and North Norfolk each have
higher rates of children living in low-income families, for both Absolute and Relative
low-income, than the Norfolk average, as detailed at Table 5.2. Norwich has more than
4,300 children living in Absolute low-income families and more than 5,800 children
living in Relative low-income families, which is the highest number of all of the Norfolk
local authority areas. Even in the area with the lowest rates, for South Norfolk there are
still around 2,500 children living in Absolute low-income families and around 3,200
children living in Relative low-income families.
Table 5.2: Children aged under 16 living in low-income families, 2018-19
Area Children in Families with Children in families with
Absolute low-income Relative low-income
Number % Number %
Breckland 3,276 13.5% 4,198 17.4%
Broadland 2,217 10.4% 2,832 13.3%
Great Yarmouth 3,460 19.5% 4,464 25.2%
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 3,788 14.3% 4,841 18.3%
North Norfolk 2,235 15.4% 2,799 19.2%
Norwich 4,326 18.1% 5,826 24.4%
South Norfolk 2,513 10.1% 3,191 12.8%
Norfolk 21,815 14.3% 28,151 18.4%
Source: DWP Children in Low-Income Families statistics, 2018-19
Table 5.3 shows the difference between rates of children living in low-income families
for 2018-19 compared with the previous year, by district. In terms of rates of children
living in Absolute low-income families, there has been an increase over the year for
Broadland, North Norfolk and South Norfolk. For rates of children living in Relative low-
income families, there has been an increase over the year for Breckland, Broadland
and North Norfolk.
Table 5.3: % children aged under 16 living in low-income families, by district,
2017-18 and 2018-19
Children in Families with Children in families with
Area Absolute low-income (%) Relative low-income (%)
2017/18 2018/19 2017/18 2018/19
Breckland 13.6% 13.5% 17.1% 17.4%
Broadland 9.8% 10.4% 12.7% 13.3%
Great Yarmouth 19.7% 19.5% 25.6% 25.2%
King's Lynn & West Norfolk 15.3% 14.3% 19.7% 18.3%
North Norfolk 14.5% 15.4% 18.9% 19.2%
Norwich 18.4% 18.1% 24.8% 24.4%
South Norfolk 9.8% 10.1% 12.8% 12.8%
Source: DWP Children in Low-Income Families statistics, 2018-19
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