New Zealand Country Intelligence Risk Report - ASU Study Abroad
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Intelligence and Analysis Services
Country Intelligence Risk Report
New Zealand
Overall Risk Rating: Negligible - Low | 1.75
Drum Cussac Group Limited Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)Intelligence and Analysis Services
Contents
Country Risk Rating Breakdown ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Country Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Security
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Conflict .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Criminality ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Unrest ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Political
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Government Stability ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Corruption ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Rule of Law ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Sanctions .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Infrastructural
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Aviation ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Overland ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Utilities .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Cyber .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Environmental
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Seismic ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Storm Systems ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Climatic ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Manmade ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Medical
Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Disease ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Facilities .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Pharmaceuticals ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Water .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Threat Scale Reference ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
Drum Cussac Group Limited 2 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)Intelligence and Analysis Services
Country Risk Rating Breakdown
Country Overall Risk Rating Negligible - Low | 1.75
Security Risk Rating Negligible - Low | 1.50
Conflict Criminality Terrorism Unrest
Negligible | 1.25 Negligible | 1.25 Negligible - Low | 1.75 Negligible | 1.25
Environmental Risk Rating Low | 2.25
Seismic Storm Systems Climatic Manmade
Moderate | 3.00 Low | 2.25 Negligible - Low | 1.50 Negligible | 1.25
Infrastructural Risk Rating Low | 2.00
Aviation Overland Utilities Cyber
Negligible - Low | 1.50 Low | 2.00 Negligible - Low | 1.50 Low | 2.00
Political Risk Rating Negligible | 1.25
Government Stability Corruption Rule of Law Sanctions
Negligible - Low | 1.50 Negligible | 1.25 Negligible | 1.25 Negligible | 1.25
Medical Risk Rating Negligible - Low | 1.50
Disease Facilities Pharmaceuticals Water
Negligible - Low | 1.50 Negligible - Low | 1.50 Negligible - Low | 1.50 Negligible | 1.25
Drum Cussac Group Limited 3 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)Intelligence and Analysis Services Country Overview Negligible - Low | 1.75 New Zealand has enjoyed political stability since gaining independence from the United Kingdom. The security risk environment in the country is relatively benign, with no credible threat of conflict and a relatively low threat from terrorism. However, criminal activity, primarily opportunistic theft, does occur and foreign travellers have occasionally been targeted in major urban centres. New Zealand is vulnerable to multiple natural hazards including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity and tropical cyclones, which have the potential to overwhelm disaster preparedness and recovery measures. The country is also highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, posing considerable long-term threats to sectors such as agriculture. Security Negligible - Low | 1.50 Overview Although levels remain low, criminal activity, particularly petty and opportunistic theft, does occur and foreign travellers have occasionally been targeted, particularly in major tourist areas and urban centres. An increase in thefts from vehicles has been a growing concern in recent years, and thefts from hotel rooms have been reported in some areas. The frequency of violent crime remains very low and foreign travellers are rarely affected. Demonstrations and political gatherings are held with some frequency in New Zealand's urban centres over a range of local, domestic and international political and socio-economic issues. However, these are generally small compared to those held in many other countries and typically remain peaceful. Wide-scale industrial action also occurs infrequently and can cause localised disruption to travel and some services. The threat from terrorism in New Zealand has historically been low, with little evidence of extremist networks operating in the country and no significant terrorist attacks having occurred since several small, isolated, and unrelated bombings in the 1980s. However, the killing of 50 people in gun attacks on two mosques in Christchurch by a far-right extremist on 15 March 2019, the most devastating attack in the country's history, forced a reassessment of the risk of terrorism and an increase in the national threat level. New Zealand maintains strong, friendly relations with its neighbours and does not face any significant conflict threats. Conflict Negligible | 1.25 New Zealand maintains strong, friendly relations with its neighbours and does not face any significant conflict threats. The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is relatively small but professional and undertakes regular small-scale deployments in support of international peacekeeping operations, particularly in the South Pacific region, as well as deployments in conflict zones in support of international partners. It also engages in exercises with neighbouring countries with which New Zealand has defence cooperation agreements. Drum Cussac Group Limited 4 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Terrorism Negligible - Low | 1.75 New Zealand does not have a significant history of terrorist attacks and has long been considered to be largely removed from the threat of international terrorism. There has been little evidence of extremist networks operating in the country and no significant terrorist attacks have occurred since several small, isolated and unrelated bombings in the 1980s. The country has stood in stark contrast to Europe and countries elsewhere in the region, including its neighbour Australia, which have seen an increasing terrorist threat in recent years amid the rise of the Islamic State (IS) group, and has made very few terrorism arrests at a time when hundreds of remotely-radicalised extremists were being arrested elsewhere. The country's terrorism threat level, set by the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG), remained at its second lowest stage of very low from its introduction in 2004 until it was raised to low in 2014 amid a rising international threat from IS, although an attack was still not expected. However, the gun attack on a mosque and an Islamic cultural centre in Christchurch in March 2019 raised the spectre of far-right terrorism in New Zealand. At least 50 people were killed and dozens injured in the assaults carried out by a single gunman, Australian national Brenton Tarrant, which shocked the country. In the immediate aftermath of the incident, the CTAG took the unprecedented step of increasing New Zealand's terrorism threat level to high, suggesting that another attack was likely. The increase facilitated increased security measures and police deployments but also came amid fears of possible copycat far-right and retaliatory Islamist attacks. The CTAG reduced the terrorism threat level to medium on 17 April, indicating that an attack remains feasible, although there have been no reports regarding any specific threat or terrorist groups operating in the country. Security and intelligence agencies have increased their focus on far-right extremism and the well-integrated nature of New Zealand's Muslim communities reducing the threat from Islamic terrorism. However, the threat from terrorism in the country is still considered to be relatively low Criminality Negligible | 1.25 Although New Zealand has a low crime rate by international standards, the most common threat to foreign travellers and expatriates comes from petty theft. Pickpocketing is occasionally reported in central areas of Wellington, Auckland and Christchurch, with hotspots for petty theft including crowded areas such as tourist sites, transportation hubs and parks. Criminals may also loiter outside of popular hotels and restaurants although this is believed to be uncommon. Thefts from parked vehicles have become increasingly common in recent years, with thieves often targeting hire cars and camper vans. In Auckland, car parks and streets within the borders of Queen Street, Symonds Street, K Road and Wellesley Street East, as well the vicinity of Broadway and St Lukes Shopping Centre, have been identified as high-risk areas for vehicular break-ins. Theft from vehicles also occurs in parking areas of major commercial complexes in Christchurch such as Westfield Riccarton and The Palms as well as other tourist locations such as the Coromandel Peninsula, Rotorua and Queenstown. New Zealand has also experienced an increase in residential burglaries and thefts from hotel rooms in recent years. Violent crime does occur in New Zealand, but the frequency is generally very low. The majority of reported incidents involve local residents, although foreign travellers can fall victim to such crimes. Higher risk areas for violent crime include parts of Auckland, notably Britomart, streets bordering Karangahape Road and Queen Street, and the Central West area, Christchurch's Hagley Park and Cathedral Square, and Queenstown's central suburb of Queenstown Hill. Organised criminal groups involved in narcotics smuggling, extortion, human trafficking, money laundering and other illegal activities also operate in New Zealand. However, the risk of foreign travellers being directly affected by organised crime is low. Unrest Negligible | 1.25 Protests and industrial action in response to political issues, environmental concerns and labour-related grievances are occasionally held in New Zealand's urban centres. In recent years, unpopular government policies, international trade agreements, a perceived slow response to natural disasters and environmental issues have become common triggers for demonstrations. In general, demonstrations and public gatherings remain peaceful and do not present a significant risk to foreign travellers or interests. However, industrial action can occasionally lead to travel and service disruption. Drum Cussac Group Limited 5 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Political Negligible | 1.25 Overview New Zealand has a stable political system and there are few significant challenges to the current government. Corruption in the country is generally low, but a number of recent scandals relating to access to information and corrupt practices by politicians have undermined confidence to an extent. The rule of law is well observed and the judiciary is independent. Government Stability Negligible - Low | 1.50 New Zealand has enjoyed political stability since gaining independence from the United Kingdom. The 2017 general election was won by the Labour party which formed a coalition with New Zealand First under Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. However, the minority government relies on the support of the Green Party to pass legislation. There are currently few challenges to government stability. However, the reliance on a confidence and supply agreement with the Green Party means that the government may find it difficult to maintain a majority in parliament in the medium term. Corruption Negligible | 1.25 The risk of corruption in New Zealand is very low. The country is currently second in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) with a 2018 CPI score of 87 out of 100. A comprehensive regulatory regime, including the Crimes Act, and a well-observed code of conduct for all state service workers effectively curtail corruption in the public sector. Bribery in the public sector is almost non-existent, and the illicit diversion of public funds is very rare. However, the public sector's reputation has been diminished somewhat due to a number of issues relating to access to information. A number of government-related alleged corrupt practices and unscrupulous party donations have also tarnished the country's reputation to a lesser extent. Rule of Law Negligible | 1.25 The rule of law has been one of New Zealand's main foundations since it gained independence from the United Kingdom. Government officials are known to be bound by law, reflected by a low level of corruption and a low risk of nepotism in the public sector. The judiciary operates in a highly transparent manner and is rarely involved in incidents of biased and selective adjudication of the law. Authorities also share information and empower the people with the necessary tools to hold the government accountable through public deliberations and participation. Regulatory regimes are effectively implemented, while fundamental human rights are observed and respected. New Zealand placed eighth highest in the World Justice Project's 2018 Rule of Law Index, which uses 47 sub-indicators across nine major categories that measure a country's rule of law. Sanctions Negligible | 1.25 There are currently no international sanctions imposed on New Zealand. Drum Cussac Group Limited 6 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Infrastructural Low | 2.00 Overview There are no significant concerns over the regulatory oversight of New Zealand's aviation industry, and air travel in the country is safe. However, severe weather conditions can cause significant disruption to flight services. Overland travel can also be affected by inclement weather, and some mountain roads may be blocked by snow during winter months. Roads in New Zealand are generally well maintained but secondary routes tend to be narrow whilst those in mountainous areas can be steep and winding. The country also has high levels of energy security, extensive mobile network coverage and fast, reliable internet connections. However, cybercrime is a growing concern due to an increase in incidents and their overall impact on the national economy. Aviation Negligible - Low | 1.50 There are no significant concerns over the regulatory oversight of New Zealand's aviation industry and air travel in the country is safe. However, flight operations have occasionally been disrupted by severe weather conditions, particularly cyclones. Auckland International Airport (AKL), located 21km (13 miles) south of the city centre on the North Island, is the largest and busiest international airport in the country. AKL is served by many major international airlines with flights to Asia, the Americas and Europe as well as regional destinations. Wellington International Airport (WLG), 5.5km (3 miles) southeast of the city and also on the North Island, mainly serves domestic flights, although there are also several international routes. Christchurch International Airport (CHC), approximately 12km (7 miles) northwest of the city on the South Island, serves a handful of regional destinations as well as numerous domestic routes. Queenstown Airport (ZQN), situated approximately 8km (5 miles) from downtown Queenstown, provides domestic flights as well as international flights to Australia. Security and amenities at airports in New Zealand are considered to meet international standards. Efforts to expand several airports are ongoing, including a NZ80 million development that will increase the size of AKL's international departures lounge, connect the domestic terminal with the international terminal and see the construction of a second runway by 2025. Overland Low | 2.00 New Zealand's road network is extensive, connecting both urban and rural areas on the North and South islands, and generally well maintained. Most main roads have adequate signage and lighting, although main roads and motorways are limited outside of major urban centres. Most secondary roads are narrow, while those in mountain areas are often steep and winding. Inclement weather can cause overland travel disruption and hazardous driving conditions. According to the Ministry of Transport, there were 291 fatal road accidents in 2015, with a rate of 6.9 deaths per 100,000 population. Although the rate is still significantly lower than the global average of 17.4 per 100,000, it is around double the rate in some western European countries. There is a good rail network on both the North and South Islands, although only Auckland and Wellington have metropolitan monorail systems. The main rail operator is KiwiRail. Other operators include Veolia, which runs railways in Auckland and its suburbs, and Taieri Gorge Railway, which operates trains around Dunedin. An inter-island rail ferry service is also available between Wellington on the South Island and Picton on the North Island several times daily. Utilities Negligible - Low | 1.50 Almost all of New Zealand's population has access to the country's electricity network, with generation capacity coming mainly from renewable energy sources, including geothermal, hydropower and wind. Electricity tariffs are considered to be relatively cheap and below average amongst members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). New Zealand also has a high level of energy security, generally attributed to a diversity of sources and competitive markets. Mobile communications coverage is also extensive. According to the Ministry of Communications, at least 80 percent of the population has access to 4G high-speed mobile data services. This is expected to reach 90 percent by 2019, as operators plan to improve network coverage. However, coverage is more patchy in rural areas, particularly in mountainous areas of the South Island. Almost the entire adult population has access to the internet via landline connections or mobile devices. Overall speeds are fast and reliable. Drum Cussac Group Limited 7 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Cyber Low | 2.00 There have been concerns regarding cyber-crime in New Zealand, with the New Zealand Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recording incidents including attacks on companies and government departments. Due to the growing threat of cyber-crime, the government has announced a number of measures since late 2015 to strengthen the country's cyber-security infrastructure and regulatory regime. These include the establishment of the Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT), police training and a reassessment of existing laws that deal with cybercrime. Drum Cussac Group Limited 8 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Environmental Low | 2.25 Overview New Zealand is vulnerable to multiple natural hazards including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity and tropical cyclones, which have the potential to overwhelm disaster preparedness and recovery measures. Powerful storm systems can cause significant infrastructural damage and disruption during the November to April cyclone season, especially in areas along or near the northern coast. Severe weather can pose a particularly high risk in more remote mountainous areas that frequently see flooding following periods of heavy rainfall. Weather conditions can change rapidly and some areas can quickly become cut off. New Zealand experiences thousands of earthquakes every year but only a fraction of these are strong enough to be felt and the majority of earthquakes do not cause significant damage or casualties. However, the country has experienced several severe earthquakes in recent years which have caused widespread damage, particularly the 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Major offshore earthquakes can bring a risk of tsunamis and a warning system is in place for coastal areas of the country. Seismic Moderate | 3.00 Due to its location in the Pacific Ocean's seismically active Ring of Fire region, New Zealand experiences regular earthquakes. Thousands of earthquakes occur each year, although only between 150 and 200 of these are strong enough to be felt. High-risk areas include coastal sections of Westland as well as several parts of Grey, Hurunui, Marlborough and Kaikoura, all located on the South Island. The majority of earthquakes do not cause significant damage or casualties, but the country has experienced several severe earthquakes in recent years which have caused widespread damage. In one of the country's deadliest natural disasters, at least 185 people were killed and hundreds of others injured after a 6.3-magnitude earthquake hit near the city of Christchurch in February 2011. The economic cost was approximately USD30 billion (NZD40 billion). Major offshore earthquakes bring a risk of tsunamis and a warning system is in place for coastal areas of the country. Warnings are broadcast via local media, although tsunamis can strike within minutes of an earthquake and warnings may not be issued in time. New Zealand has several active volcanic sites including Mount Ruapehu, Mount Tongariro and White Island. Volcanic activity at these sites is closely monitored but eruptions can occur at short notice. Storm Systems Low | 2.25 New Zealand is highly vulnerable to storm systems during the cyclone season from November to April. Lows, storms and cyclones typically enter the country from the Pacific Ocean and can bring heavy rain and strong winds, especially to communities along or near the coast. These storm systems can also affect major urban centres, including Auckland, and trigger major floods and landslides, as well as uproot trees, overturn vehicles, damage power lines, cause infrastructural damage and result in human casualties. Weather conditions during the winter months of June, July and August can be harsh and cause hazardous driving conditions, especially in mountainous areas. Weather conditions can change rapidly and some areas can quickly become cut off, posing a significant risk for those walking or climbing in remote locations. Although the country has comprehensive natural disaster preparedness and recovery programmes, powerful storm systems can overwhelm these measures. The government has experienced more challenges in addressing the threat of these storm systems as the impact of meteorological phenomena has increased in recent years, with some environmentalists blaming climate change. Climatic Negligible - Low | 1.50 New Zealand has a generally temperate climate. Temperatures remain mild for most of the year, and there is often little variation between summer and winter. However, mountainous and northernmost areas tend to experience more significant temperature variations and can see extreme temperatures linked to severe weather. Government data reveals that the country has experienced a harsher and more unpredictable climate in recent years due to a number of issues, including climate change. The country is likely to be susceptible to further climatic change in the future. Drum Cussac Group Limited 9 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Manmade Negligible | 1.25 There are no known significant man-made threats in New Zealand. Drum Cussac Group Limited 10 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services Medical Negligible - Low | 1.50 Overview There are no major health-related hazards in New Zealand, although mosquito-borne diseases including dengue, chikungunya and Zika are present on the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau. Medical facilities in the country are of a high standard but those on the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau provide only limited services. A number of countries including the UK and Australia have reciprocal health agreements with New Zealand which cover short-term emergency medical treatment. Disease Negligible - Low | 1.50 There are no major health-related hazards in New Zealand, although mosquito-borne diseases including dengue, chikungunya and Zika are present on the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau. Travellers in these areas should take precautions to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes such as using insect repellent and wearing light-coloured, loose-fitting clothing. Facilities Negligible - Low | 1.50 Medical facilities in the country are of a high standard but those on the Cook Islands, Niue and Tokelau provide only limited services. New Zealand has both privately owned and government-funded hospitals as well as several specialist clinics. Most medical facilities are equipped with the latest equipment and staffed by well-qualified medical practitioners. A number of countries including the UK and Australia have reciprocal health agreements with New Zealand which cover short-term emergency medical treatment. Major hospitals in the country include the Auckland City Hospital, Middlemore Hospital or North Shore Hospital in Auckland; Boulcott Hospital, Wellington Hospital and Southern Cross Hospital in Wellington; Christchurch Hospital, Christchurch Women's Hospital and The Princess Margaret Hospital in Christchurch; and Queenstown Medical Centre, Arrowtown Surgery and Wakatipu Medical Centre in Queenstown. Pharmaceuticals Negligible - Low | 1.50 Medicines are available at pharmacies, with some operating 24 hours in major cities like Auckland. There are also online pharmacies that offer nationwide delivery services. It should be noted that prescription pharmaceuticals can only be obtained through a pharmacist. The government subsidises many common drugs and medical products in the country, although subsidies are not extended to all customers. Travellers can also bring prescribed pharmaceuticals into the country so long as the quantity will not be over three month's usage. Water Negligible | 1.25 Tap water is considered safe to drink in New Zealand. Drum Cussac Group Limited 11 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)
Intelligence and Analysis Services
Threat Rating
Threat Level Implication
The operating environment is benign and there are only isolated threats to business
1 - Negligible
and/or travel.
The operating environment is generally permissive, although there are a limited
2 – Low
number of threats to business and/or travel that requires basic mitigations.
The operating environment is challenging and there are serious threats to business
3 – Moderate
and/or travel that requires some mitigations.
The operating environment is hostile and there are significant threats to business,
4 – High
personal safety and/or travel, requiring comprehensive mitigations and planning.
The operating environment is characterised by pervasive direct threats to business,
5 – Extreme
personal safety and/or travel, requiring strict risk management procedures.
Drum Cussac Group Limited 12 Last Updated: 29 Jan 2021, 17:52 (UTC)Intelligence and Analysis Services
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escalation of any factors affecting any such judgment.
Copyright
Copyright 2016 Drum Cussac Group Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the express prior consent of Drum
Cussac Group Ltd.
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