NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
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Content NARGA Chairman’s Analysis 5 1. Executive summary 9 2. Australian food sustainabity at the crossroads 11 2.1 Australian population trends 2.2 Australian food consumption trends 2.3 Australian primary production trends 2.4 Australian processed food production trends 2.5 Australian food exports and imports trends 2.6 Food industry sustainability dilemma 3. Australian grocery industry - Context and structure 19 3.1 An employment perspective on the retail, grocery and food industries 3.2 Retail and grocery sectors - cross industry perspectives 3.3 Grocery sector - size, shares and stores context 4. Australian food and grocery industry & "paddock to plate" context and structure 29 4.1 The "paddock to plate" profiles and value add analysis 5. Appendix 39 5.1 Study methodology and sources 5.2 Study terms and definitions 5.3 Dairy industry case study 5.4 Private label case study 2
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NARGA Chairman’s Analysis There have been many inquiries into aspects of the and more food and at the same time creating Australian grocery industry, including the report of: conditions which will make it difficult for primary producers and manufacturers to remain viable. ·the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Technology We believe this is being driven by the unparalleled (the Reid Committee, 1997), hyper-concentration of the grocery retailing sector, where two major supermarket chains have the report of the Joint Select Committee on the · almost 80 per cent of packaged grocery sales. By Retailing Sector (the Baird Committee, 1999), comparison, the two largest grocery retailers in the United States (Wal-Mart and Kroger) jointly have 20 the ACCC’s report to the Senate On prices paid · per cent market share and the top five chains in the to suppliers by retailers in the Australian grocery United Kingdom have about 80 per cent. industry (2002), Governments have not to date acknowledged ·the Review of the Competition Provisions of the that the level of market concentration in the Trade Practices Act (the Dawson inquiry, 2003), Australian grocery retailing industry has been the Senate Economics References Committee · adversely affecting the ability of many Australian inquiry into The effectiveness of the Trade Practices primary producers to survive - the dairy farming Act 1974 in protecting small business (2004), sector is a case in point, as the Senate Economics References Committee reported earlier this year - ·the Report of the ACCC inquiry into the and processors and manufacturers are being forced competitiveness of retail prices for standard to bulk up through mergers and acquisitions to give groceries (2008) and various Senate Economics themselves some hope of negotiating fair deals with Committee inquiries, the major retailing chains. ·most recently the Senate Economics References These are the types of issues which were Committee’s report on dairy pricing (May 2010), acknowledged as early as 1997 in the Reid Milking it for all it’s worth - competition and pricing Committee’s report Finding a balance: Towards fair in the Australian dairy industry. trading in Australia. The problems remain today, but are more urgent. Piecemeal amendments to the The frequency of these inquiries suggests that there Trade Practices Act have been ineffective. are issues which remain unresolved, issues which continue to cause problems for Australian primary The ACCC’s 2008 grocery inquiry report found producers, processors and manufacturers, retailers that Woolworths and Coles were only “workably and consumers. competitive”. We think that was far too bland a conclusion: they merely share the market and This report reviews the entire food and grocery exert enormous power over their suppliers, their supply chain from paddock to plate. We believe this competitors and their customers, not through has been the first report to gather hard data on the efficiency or economies of scale, but simply entire supply chain. because of their dominant position in the market. The result is a clear picture of an industry facing There are a number of indications in this report serious issues: without concerted action by suggesting that the retail grocery market may not government, Australia risks losing its domestic food be genuinely competitive. These include: industry as we currently know it. • The disparity between volume and value growth The National Association of Retail Grocers of during the last decade (12 per cent versus 42 per Australia commissioned Accenture Australia to cent) that suggests an increase in profit margins conduct this research because we have grown taken at the retail level; (see page 13) increasingly concerned that the country with the cleanest paddocks in the world is importing more 5
• The margin shift from producer to retailer - in If these trends continue, substantial parts of the dairy sector, retailers take 80 per cent of the Australia’s domestic food industry are at risk. available gross profit, processors 16 per cent and farmers four per cent; (page 43) There is no simple, single remedy for the problems facing the Australian food and grocery industry. • The high degree of concentration of the retail grocery market with Woolworths and Coles However, it is clear that the market concentration identified as having a market share of around 80 of the Australian grocery retailing sector needs to per cent between them; (page 27) be addressed so that the market dominance of two major companies can be reduced over time. • The fact that Australia has a more stable retail growth pattern, less affected by the type of One way of ameliorating the market power of the fluctuations that would be expected as a result of major chains is the reintroduction of a prohibition greater price competition; (page 21) on anti-competitive price discrimination - a circumstance where suppliers, willingly or unwillingly, • The evidence of a ‘waterbed effect’ in prices are obliged to sell product to one (or several) paid by independent retailers, of which the customers at lower prices than are available to dairy industry is an example. This results in other customers, discounts that are unrelated to suppliers being forced to charge higher prices genuine discounts for economies of scale. to some customers for some products in order to compensate for lower prices being paid by the However, the advantage gained by anti- major chains; private label milk prices offered by competitive price discrimination at the point of the major chains have been offset by significant supply cannot be recovered by other competitors, price increases for cheese, yoghurt and ice cream even if they accept a lower profit margin. The result in the past few years; (page 43) is a heavy dampening of competition and, over time, further market concentration. • Growth in the lower quality private label market suggesting there is insufficient competitive When the Trade Practices Act was passed by the pressure to maintain product quality (pages 16, Parliament in 1974 it contained such a prohibition, 46). the then section 49, but after a sustained campaign by big business, it was repealed in 1995. The expansion of the major chains’ private label ranges in recent years has seen an increase in Interestingly, the campaign by big business began imported products from low-cost countries. As a almost immediately after the Trade Practices Act consequence, Australian primary producers and 1974 was passed and before any cases had been manufacturers have lost domestic market share. taken to court. The big business campaign was reflected in the recommendations of the Swanson This report highlights some of the problems which Committee as early as 1976. The Blunt Committee are evident in the market: repeated the recommendation in 1979. The campaign continued until the Hilmer Committee’s • Food consumption is growing faster than recommendation of repeal was acted on in 1995. population Yet the Trade Practices Commission did not take a single case to court from 1974 to 1995. • Food consumption is growing faster than food production It is now extremely clear that the assumption by the Hilmer Committee, echoing the Reid Committee • Food imports are growing faster than food exports and many others since - that a prohibition on anti- • Grocery industry growth has outpaced both gross competitive price discrimination was unnecessary domestic product and overall retail growth in the because section 46 of the Trade Practices Act second half of this decade (dealing with misuse of market power) could be used to address such conduct - was wrong and • Grocery prices are growing faster than the unsupported by any evidence whatsoever. consumer price index (and, because they constitute a significant part of the CPI, contribute Again, since the repeal of section 49, the ACCC has to increasing the CPI itself). never used section 46 of the TPA to test allegations of anti-competitive price discrimination in court. 6
That is a matter of record. Yet many small businesses, Governments need to acknowledge that the threats particularly in the grocery sector, have also said to the continued viability of the Australian food publicly that they cannot buy product at wholesale industry stem from the hyper-concentration of the cheaper than the major supermarket chains ask for retail sector and, as the inquiry reports listed earlier the identical product at retail. That circumstance indicate, there has been a long-term failure of the has nothing to do with economies of scale. regulatory framework to address such issues. We believe the reintroduction of a prohibition on JOHN CUMMINGS anti-competitive price discrimination is now critical. Chairman Australia and New Zealand are now the only two National Association of Retail Grocers of Australia OECD countries without such a prohibition, resulting November 2010 in a situation where the major supermarket chains, amongst other big corporations, are able to demand pricing advantages which suppliers could not deny them without risking the loss of one or other of their two largest customers, potentially to be replaced by imports. However, without a regulator committed to active monitoring of industry and application of the legislation, black letter law is largely irrelevant. The failure of regulatory commitment was noted as early as the 1997 report of the Reid Committee and is evident from the failure of the Trade Practices Commission or the ACCC to take a single allegation of anti-competitive price discrimination to court since 1974, under either section 49 or section 46. NARGA supports the recent observation by the Australian Food and Grocery Council that a whole of government response is needed to resolve the issues now facing the food industry. This would allow governments to engage with the individual sectors in the supply chain, beginning with the farming sectors which currently seem most at risk. NARGA believes Australians need and want a vibrant and secure farming sector. Processors and manufacturers require continuous reinvestment in their Australian facilities. Without such reinvestment, Australian operations of international companies are also likely to be at risk and governments need to understand that and create a climate of confidence for such investment. Finally, governments need to understand that the independent grocery retailing sector is the major source of competition for the major chains. Independent grocers offering a wide range of formats and market specialisations are the best defence for a competitive industry. 7
1. Executive summary The Australian food and grocery industry is at the Structurally, the “paddock to plate” value chain is cross roads and is in need of a holistic review and showing clear trends of consolidation across the response across the “paddock to plate” value-chain board: from farmers through processors through to forge a path forward. to the concentrated retail end of the value chain. There is evidence of tension in regards to the The trends over the last decade paint a picture that balance of power within the value chain between puts the ability of the local industry to support local the producers, processors and retailers. The case consumption in question. The three key trends that studies covering the dairy industry and the private drive this are: label category illustrate and expand on this, and the effects it may have on the local industry. 1. Food consumption is growing faster than population The Dairy case study in particular demonstrates some of tensions in the value chain – where the 2. F ood consumption is growing faster than food drive by the concentrated supermarket sector to production (which is in decline) offer lower private label milk to consumers, has 3. Food imports are growing faster than food exports had negative effects on the viability of producers and has placed processors into a situation where Primary production trends are on a decline in “prices of branded products have sometimes been volume terms overall. The growth of processed increased to offset overall cost increase, both for and manufactured goods for consumption lags branded and private label products” 1 behind growing local needs. And, although the retail sector is showing, in contrast, healthy growth, What does remain unresolved is the future direction its key participants are increasingly meeting the of the industry as a whole in Australia. Its importance production gap via imports. is undeniable. The trends are self-evident. The tension is documented. There seems to be a paradox at play in the industry – where Australia has a growing population The way forward, if the current patterns hold true, and growing per capita consumption, which is indicates further dilution of local capacity at both contrasted with a decrease in local supply of food primary and secondary level, and a corresponding and grocery products. increased reliance on imports to meet the consumption-production gap at the retail level. The The “paddock to plate” value of the food and question remains whether this will be in the best long grocery industry to Australia is significant. It is term interests for Australia, for Australian industry estimated that it generates $209 billion in sales. This and for Australian consumers. makes up more that 20 per cent of Australian GDP. It employs around 910,000 Australians which is well in excess of 411,000 workers linked to the grocery retail portion of the value chain. It also contributed 11.5 per cent of the total value of Australian exports. 1. Report from the Senate Economics References Committee, “Milking it for all its’ worth”, May 2010. 9
2. Australian food sustainabity at the crossroads The current, wide-ranging debate that focuses on Food Consumption is growing faster than sustainability of “big” vs. “small” Australia has a Population. parallel in the local food industry. The trends over Whereas population in Australia has increased by 11 the last decade potentially signal the fact that we per cent over the last decade, our ‘per capita’ food are facing a significant tension point in regards to consumption value and volumes increased by 58 long term sustainability of local food production per cent and 25 per cent respectively. that is able to effectively satisfy our consumption patterns. Food Consumption is growing faster than There are three linked trends that, once extended Production. into a forecast, point to this: Although food production has increased by 21 per cent in value terms since 2000, the volume 1. Food consumption is growing faster than of food production at primary level has actually population decreased by 11 per cent since 2000. Both of these are well below the pace of growth of population or 2. F ood consumption is growing faster than food consumption. production (which is in decline) It is evident that the current trends, if allowed 3. Food imports are growing faster than food exports to continue unabated, may create significant challenges in regards to the feasibility of local Fig 1. Australia - Food Supply and Demand Trends and industry effectively supporting the domestic Outlook demand, as well as creating a potential flow-on effect to increased reliance on food imports to Index (base year 2000) bridge this gap. 350 In fact, this trend of food imports growing faster than Histroy Trend forecast food exports is already evident in the data from the 300 past decade. Food exports values have actually slowly eroded (-4 per cent) whilst food imports 250 values have increased by 80 per cent in value between 2000 and now. This pattern is even more 200 3 2 1 evident with data that is volume based with the 150 imports to exports index gap widening further. These tension points raise questions as to whether 100 the Australian food industry is optimally positioned to face these challenges, in view of current changes 50 and trends in regards to its structure. We will now look in more detail at these cumulative trends that 0 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 create this tension point. Production $ Import $ Population Consumption $ Export $ Sources: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food manufacturing. Data have been indexed on year 2000 and linear trendline have been applied. 11
2.1 Australian population trends Between 2000 and 2009, population in Australia Fig 2. Australian population trend (2000-2009) grew from 19.2 million to just over 22 million, an 11 Population per cent increase. 23,000,000 Latest official ABS projections for population range from 30 million to 40 million by 2050, depending on the scenarios (low/high fertility, life expectancy, 22,000,000 overseas migration). This could represent a near doubling of our current numbers. 21,000,000 This population increase and the future projections need to be considered in relation to their effects on our food consumption rates and patterns, as well as how well the Australian food industry is poised and 20,000,000 structured to support them in the near future. They also need to be considered holistically across 19,000,000 the “paddock to plate” value chain at production, processing and retail components, and structure and trends in the Australian food and grocery 18,000,000 industry. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Let’s turn our attention first to the food consumption Source: ABS table 3101.0 ‘Australian demographic Statistics’. patterns. Fig 3. Australia Projected Population in Millions (2007 to 2051) Population in million ('000) 40,086.6 34,213.2 30,306.6 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2007 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Series A Series B Series C Series A: assumes Series B: assumes Series C: assumes low high levels of fertility, medium levels of levels of fertility, life expectancy, fertility, life life expectancy, overseas migration expectancy, overseas migration and interstate overseas migration and interstate migration flows and interstate migration flows migration flows Source: ABS catalogue 31010DO001_200909 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sep 2009, Table 9 Projected resident population, states & territories. 12
2.2 Australian food consumption trends Our food consumption continues to rise at a pace Fig 4. Grocery Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009) that is outstripping the population and GDP growth rates, thus creating pressure and additional demand Million (A$) for local fresh and processed foodstuffs. 100,000 40.0% Australians continue to consume more per capita 90,000 39.5% and this is reflected in the growth of grocery retail 80,000 39.0% turnover figures - the best data proxy for our food consumption - which have increased by 70 per cent 70,000 38.5% since the year 2000. (Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, 60,000 Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup) 38.0% 50,000 When we indexed consumption growth trends vs. 37.5% 40,000 population in the last decade, two key insights were 37.0% uncovered to support this trend: 30,000 20,000 36.5% • Consumption volumes have grown 12 per cent faster than population in the same period of time 10,000 36.0% •C onsumption values have grown 42 per cent faster 0.0 35.5% than population in the same period of time 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 Grocery retail has grown faster than GDP, reflecting Grocery retail Grocery % of total retail the fact that the per capita demand for food is on the rise, but also potentially linked to the diluting Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. factor that grocery retailers are including more categories in their portfolio to drive overall demand. Fig 5. Grocery Retail Share in GDP (2000-2009) Percentage 9.0 8.4 7.9 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 Grocery as % of GDP GDP % Growth Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’, table 11, Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. 13
2.3 Australian primary production trends Food production volumes are linked to many factors Fig 6. Australia agriculture food production trends – ranging from weather patterns, through legislative (2000-2008) and regulatory initiatives to the effects of global $ Millions Kilo tonnes trade and commodities demand patterns, as well 120,000 40000 as local demand requirements. As such, isolating any one of these as the overriding factor that drives 35000 100,000 the end volumes and values is an inexact science at 30000 best. 80,000 25000 What we are focusing on here are the overt facts related to the observed end patterns in production 60,000 20000 values and volumes and how they relate to the 15000 wider trends in the “paddock to plate” food industry 40,000 in Australia. 10000 20,000 At top line summary, the Australian food production 5000 patterns in the last decade indicate: 0.0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 • Value rise of 21 per cent over that period in time -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 olume decrease of 11 per cent over that period •V Agricultural food production (Volume) in time Agricultural food production (Value) These trends lag behind population growth trends Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Agricultural Food and more importantly consumption volume trends production by commodity. for Australia. This means that Australian food export revenues will be negatively impacted to allow Fig 7. Australia - Agricultural Food Production for diversion of local production to satisfy local Volume Trends (2000-2008) demand. 20% 16% As indicated, these trends may also reflect drought conditions and climate variability that have been 10% 5.4% 6.2% observed in Australia in recent years. [Drought is 1.5% already over in most places]. At a more detailed 0% level we can see the patchy volume growth patterns across some of the key commodities: -10% -12.5% • Positive growth – Sugar cane -20% •M arginal growth - Fisheries, livestock and -30% -29% vegetables -33.1% -40% • Negative growth - Grain, oil seeds, fruits and milk -50% -49.1% -60% Grains Oil seeds Sugar cane and peanuts Fruits Vegetables Livestock (production) Fisheries Milk (litre converted in kt) Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Agricultural Food production by commodity. 14
2.4 Australian processed food production trends The trend of lagging behind consumption demand Figs. 8 and 9. Processed Food Manufacturing growth gets more pervasive when we shift our (Index Value) attention to the processed food sector in Australia. Index (year base 2000) Only two categories seem to be keeping up with 250 consumption growth rates in regards to production rates. As such, the overall 37 per cent growth in 200 value between 2000 and 2009 for food production is not high enough to sustain local consumption growth rates. This signals the slowdown in the rate of 150 expansion of local manufacturing capacity as well as the slowdown of production efficiency and product innovation rates to keep up with local consumption 100 trends. As such, local production may need to be supported 50 by further imports to close the gap with projected consumption levels. 0 When we extend the current index patterns forward, 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 and use the consumption growth rate as the Meat processing Seafood processing Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food reference point, further detail emerges: manufacturing (values Dairy products have been indexed Fruit processing on year 2000). & veg processing Oil & fat processing Grain mill cereals processing • Sugar & confectionary and bakery products are Bakery products processing Sugar and confectionary the only two groups that are growing at a faster Outlook rate than consumption Other food processing Beverages Index (year base 2000) Consumption • Oil & fats manufacturing is declining not only 450 in regards to keeping up with the growth of Histroy Trend forecast 400 consumption but also in absolute terms 350 • The remaining commodities are not keeping up 300 with the growth of consumption and will need to be supported by imports to satisfy local consumption 250 growth. 200 These trends once again underline the apparent 150 divergence between local consumption growth rates and the changing way that the industry is currently 100 poised to support it locally. 50 The last piece of the trends puzzle – the imports 0 vs exports trend - suggests that if these patterns 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 continue the solution to this divergence will not lie in Meat processing Seafood processing increasing local capacity, but rather on increased reliance on imports. The question remains whether Dairy products processing Fruit & veg processing this is the right solution for our market and industry. Oil & fat processing Grain mill cereals processing Bakery products processing Sugar and confectionary Other food processing Beverages Consumption growth baseline Sources: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food manufacturing. Data have been indexed on year 2000 and linear trendline have been applied. 15
2.5 Australian food exports and imports trends Over the last decade – there has been a clear Fig 10. Food Imports and Exports Trend divergence in food exports and imports patterns: Kilo tonnes $ (million) • F ood Exports are in decline – decrease in value 35,000 30,000 (-4 per cent) and volume (-40 per cent) between 2000 and 2009 30,000 25,000 • F ood Imports are on the rise – increase in value 25,000 (+80 per cent) and volume (+94 per cent) 20,000 between 2000 and 2009 20,000 Further analysis reveals that the contribution of 15,000 food exports value to total Australian exports has 15,000 declined from 18 per cent in 2000 to 8 per cent in 10,000 2009 – this is a 55 per cent share decrease in one 10,000 decade. 5,000 5,000 As such, it is evident that the current trends and projections for population growth and increasing 0 0 consumption, combined with local food 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 production that is declining in volume terms have -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 the effect of: Food imports (volume) Food exports (volume) • T ransferring some of the potential export volumes Food imports (value) Food exports (value) to local consumption Source: ABS catalogue 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, table 12a and 13a used for export & import value. ABS • Increasing the import volumes to close the unpublished catalogue used for import and export volume. consumption gap In addition, current Australian currency strength is Fig 11. Australia - Food Products Imports Trends putting further pressure on local producers to stay Kilo tonnes $ (million) competitive with imported foods. 6,000 10,000 Lastly, it suggests that overseas sourcing for food 9,000 products is increasingly used as a long term 5,000 alternative by the food processing and grocery 8,000 retail industry in order to maintain all year long 7,000 supply in the market and bridge the gap to 4,000 growing consumption. 6,000 3,000 5,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 Food imports (volume) Food imports (value) Source: ABS catalogue 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, table 13a used for imports value. ABS unpublished catalogue used for imports volume. 16
2.6 Food industry sustainability dilemma As demonstrated, the Australian market is displaying • How important is the food industry to the a number of trends that are putting pressure on the Australian economy? long term sustainability of the “paddock to plate” food industry in this country. • What is the current size and structure of the industry at primary, manufacturing and retail We are facing a paradox where we have a level? growing population and growing per capita food consumption that is contrasted with decrease in • What is the level of concentration and competition local primary as well as processed food production across the food chain ? and exports, resulting in growing imports to bridge • What are the current trends and issues faced by the consumption gap. It seems that the local the players in the food chain in Australia? industry is not responding to the demand growth signals of a market economy, in fact it seems to be • Is concentration in the retail sector also resulting in going in the opposite direction. concentration in other sectors of the food chain? There are questions that come to mind as to what is driving these patterns and why it is happening: 17
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3. Australian grocery industry - context and structure The grocery industry is the key channel for food ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11). It has registered distribution and consumption. It is the single biggest a 70 per cent growth in the last decade and forms retail sector and makes up 39.6 per cent of total 8.4 per cent of the total Australian GDP, 27 per cent retail turnover in 2008-2009 (ABS Catalogue 8501.0 share growth in one decade. Fig 12. Grocery Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009) Million (A$) 100,000 40.0% 90,000 39.5% 80,000 39.0% 70,000 38.5% 60,000 38.0% 50,000 37.5% 40,000 37.0% 30,000 20,000 36.5% 10,000 36.0% 0.0 35.5% 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Grocery retail Grocery % of total retail Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Fig 13. Grocery Retail Growth (2000-2009) Growth (%) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Grocery retail % growth GDP % growth Total retail % growth Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. 19
Thus, the importance of the grocery industry and It has grown 62 per cent over the 2000-2009 period channel has increased in the last decade and (note that this is slightly slower than the food centric its growth has outpaced that of both GDP and grocery sector at 70 per cent growth in the same the overall retail sector in the second half of the period). It also registered $230 billion in turnover decade. in 2008-2009 financial year. The retail sector as a whole, now forms over 20 per cent of the total Similar trends are observed in the wider retail sector, Australian economy. which similarly has outpaced the GDP growth in Australia and is now a cornerstone of the Australian Australian retail has a more stable growth pattern economy. when compared to other countries. The patterns are much less “peaky” than those of other countries, such as France, Canada or Japan that oscillated between growth and stagnation. This may be indicative of reduced competition. However, the retail industry provides a steady growth “engine room” to the Australian economy and the other related industries that depend on it. 20
Fig 14. Grocery Retail Share in GDP (2000-2009) Fig 15. Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009) Percentage Millions (A$) 9.0 250,000 25% 8.4 7.9 8.0 7.6 7.3 6.8 6.9 7.0 200,000 7.0 20% 6.6 6.0 150,000 15% 5.0 4.0 100,000 10% 3.0 2.0 50,000 5% 1.0 0.0 0 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 Grocery as % of GDP GDP % Growth Retail turnover Retail turnover as a % of GDP Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’, table 11, Retail Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian Turnover, state by industry subgroup. Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. Fig 16. Retail Turnover Growth (2000-2009) Fig 17. Retail Growth (per cent): Global Comparison Growth (%) Growth (%) 10 25 9 20 8 15 7 10 6 5 5 4 0 3 -5 2 1 -10 0 -15 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 GDP growth Retail industry growth Australia US Canada Germany Australia GDP UK France Japan Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. Planet Retail. 21
3.1 An employment perspective on the retail, grocery and food industries The retail Industry is the single biggest employer The grocery component of this value chain has in the Australian Economy – with over 1.5 million shown healthy employment trends between 2000- Australians being part of the industry. The grocery 2008: sector on its own is in the top ten of the usual industry classifications and employs 411,000 people. • Overall employment grew 33 per cent , from 300,000 to 411,000 people An additional interesting perspective relates to the combined workforce that works in the grocery • Full time employed grew 25 per cent- from 131,700 sector as well as the upstream manufacturing to 164,000 people and primary production sectors. These form the • Grocery increased its share of total retail “paddock to plate” value chain, which employs employment to 27 per cent just over 912,000 Australians and ranks as the sixth biggest employer of its own accord. • Grocery increased its share of total employment to five per cent. This is the sector that is, as a whole, being affected by the trends that we have observed in the first part As a side note - Woolworths and Coles, the two of this report. These are the trends that are currently key retail grocery chains employ 53 per cent of the indicating that its sustainability is at risk. grocery workforce vs. their market share of 79 per cent. Fig 18. Total Employment by industry in 2008 Persons employed ('000) 1,600 1518 1,400 1,200 1,000 912.3 800 600 411.5 400 200 0 Retail Manufacturing Construction Education Gov. admin. Wholesale Finance and Agriculture, Comm. Electricity, trade and trade insurance forestry and services gas and defence fishing water supply Property Health and "Paddock Accom, Transport Grocery Personal and Cultural Mining and business community to Plate" cafes and and storage retail other services and services services restaurants recreational services Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’. 22
Fig 20. Grocery Retail Employment Growth (2000-2009) Fig 21. Grocery Retail Employment Profile (2008-09) 16% 14% 12% Coles 10% 113,000, 27% 8% Other 191,500, 47% 6% 4% Woolworths 2% 107,000, 26% 0% -2% -4% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sources: Coles and Woolworths annual reports 2009, ABS catalogue -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4. ‘other’ category includes employed persons in independents supermarkets and discounters, convenience & forecourts retailers, other specialized Grocery retail employment growth grocery retailers. Total retail employment growth Total employment growth Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4. Fig 19. Grocery Retail Employment Trend Persons ('000) 450 30% 400 25% 350 300 20% 250 15% 200 150 10% 100 5% 50 0 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Grocery retailing total employed Total employed in grocery versus total employed in retail (%) Grocery retailing full time employed Total employed in grocery versus total employed (%) Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4. 23
3.2 Retail and grocery sectors – cross industry perspectives It is also relevant to provide some additional cross- Fig 22. Employment Industry Comparison, 2008 industry perspective to the nature of the retail and Employees ('000) grocery sectors. 1,600 1518.0 1,400 Overall, retail is the largest employer in the 1,200 1090.2 1085.3 Australian economy. Grocery as a sector of retail 1,000 employs more people than the mining industry. 800 600 Taking the comparisons further than employment 411.5 400 and in the context of turnover figures, although 168.5 200 trailing the combined manufacturing sector, retail 0 has a turnover nearly twice that of the mining Retail Manufacturing Health Grocery Mining sector. trade industry retail Industry Lastly, with regard to the number of businesses, retail has twice as many as the manufacturing sector – Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4. signaling higher level of dispersal, although not to the same degree as the construction sector (which is populated by a large number of sole-trader Fig 23. Industry Turnover Comparison 2008 type businesses) , reflecting the need for grocery Turnover ($A billion) retail outlets to service widely distributed local 450 communities. 395.8 400 350 300 250 230.6 200 150 120.9 100 85.3 54.0 50 0 Manufacturing Retail Mining Grocery Health retail Industry Source: ABS: 81550DO001_200708 Australian Industry, 2007 -08 (Additional Data Cubes) Table 1 Fig 24. Industry Comparison: Number of Businesses (2007) No of businesses 350,000 322,404 300,000 250,000 219,273 200,000 150,000 106,565 92,318 100,000 50,000 31,560 7,205 0 Construction Retail Manufacturing Health Grocery Mining trade retailing Industry Sources: ABS Businesses by Industry Division 2003-2007 and catalogue 8165.0 counts of Australian businesses June 2003 to June 2007. 24
3.3 Grocery sector - size, shares and stores context Looking at the trends across the key channels in the Fig 25. Turnover by Grocery Channel (2000-2009) grocery sector provides additional perspective as Million (A$) to the dynamics of the industry. There, the patterns vary across the three key channels of: supermarkets, 120,000 specialist grocery retailers and convenience and 100,000 forecourt retailers2. 80,000 Across these key channels in grocery, supermarkets 68% 66.2% 67.4% have been the key growth drivers for this sector, with 60,000 $65.3 64.9% 65.1% their share of the sector rising from 63.5 per cent 63.5% to 68 per cent (from $43 billion to $62billion in the 40,000 23% 23% period 2003 to 2009, a total of 43 per cent growth). 24.4% 23.3% 23.7% 23.7% 23.4% 12,000 12.1% 11.8% 11.2% 11% 10.4% 9.6% 9% Smaller operators, such as specialist grocery retailers 0 and convenience and forecourt retailers registered 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 slower or patchy growth rates. Supermarkets The convenience sector has in fact shrunk in Specialist grocery retailers Convenience & forecourts retailers importance and registered negative growth in the Grocery retailing last three years of the decade, coinciding with the overall economic slowdown and increased Source: Euromonitor International: Retailing in Australia 2009. competitive pressures from other Grocery channels. Fig 26. Turnover Growth by Grocery Retail Channel (2000-2009) Million (A$) 10% 8% 8.8% 6.8% 6% 6.6% 6.7% 5.7% 4.4% 5.4% 5.6% 4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.8% 4.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4% 4.2% 4.3% 2% 1.5% 2.0% 0% -1.6% -1.5% -0.5% -0.2% -2% -0.9% 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-09 2008-09 Supermarkets (% growth) Specialist grocery retailers (% growth) Convenience & forecourts retailers (% growth) Total grocery retail turnover (% growth) Source: Euromonitor International: Retailing in Australia 2009. 2. “Supermarket outlet” indicates the ‘majors’ (Coles & Woolworths), and the ‘independents’ (IGA, Foodland, FoodWorks, Franklins and other bannered stores and limited assortment stores such as Aldi and SPAR). According to Euromonitor, these are retail outlets selling groceries with a selling space of between 400 and 2,500 square metres. ”Specialist grocery retailers” indicates the retail outlets specialising in the sale of mainly one category of food, drinks stores and tobacconists and includes bakers (bread and flour confectionery), butchers (meat and meat products), fishmongers (fish and seafood), greengrocers (fruit and vegetables), drinks stores (alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks), tobacconists (tobacco products and smokers’ accessories), cheesemongers, chocolatiers and other single food categories (Euromonitor). The convenience and forecourt retailers category is an aggregation of convenience stores, independent small grocers and forecourt retailers (chained and independent). (Euromonitor). 25
Market share statistics and trends across the grocery channels and even within the key supermarket channel, are hard to stabilize, due to different methodologies and data coverage across Fig 27. Market Shares: Supermarkets (2009) different sources. As such, the focus is on range of market share as opposed to exact measures. Coles 0.03% 1.4% Market share rankings in the supermarket sectors 14.4% Woolworths 2.2% are quite consistent, with Woolworths, Coles 3.7% IGA and IGA being the order of the major players. Combined market share of Woolworths and Coles FoodWorks ranges between 77 and 80.4 per cent. Shares for 46.2% 31.8% IGA banners range from 11.3 per cent (various Franklins publication and estimates from Metcash) to 14.4 per cent (Euromonitor). Spar The market share discussion in the supermarket Aldi sector gives rise to the much-discussed level of Source: Euromonitor, retailing in Australia 2009. industry concentration in this sector. Indeed, Australia has the most concentrated supermarket sectors in the world - whether one takes the top two or top three or top five players into account in the analysis. Fig 28. 2009 Turnover by supermarkets players (incl. Liquor sales) Turnover ($ billion) Cumul Market share incl. excl. incl. excl. incl. Liquor excl. Liquor Liquor Liquor sales Liquor Liquor sales sales sales sales sales Woolworths $32.8 $27.6 $32.8 $27.6 47.4 % 45.6 % Coles $22.5 $20.1 $55.3 $47.7 32.7 % 33.2 % IGA retail $8.2 $7.7 $63.5 $55.4 11.9 % 12.7 % FoodWorks $1.7 $1.6 $65.2 $57.0 2.5 % 2.6 % Franklins $0.9 $0.9 $66.1 $57.9 1.3 % 1.4 % Aldi $2.3 $2.3 $68.4 $60.2 3.3 % 3.8 % Spar $0.4 $0.4 $68.8 $60.6 0.6 % 0.7 % Total $68.8 $60.6 Sources: Company reports 2009, Euromonitor and other publications.. Convenience & forecourts retailers and specialist grocery retailers are excluded. Fig 29. Grocery retailing market shares – country comparison Country Market share Major players Top 2 No 3,4,5 Top 5 Australia 79.6 % 18 % 97 % Woolworths, Coles, IGA, Foodworks, Franklins UK 48 % 35.5 % 83.5 % Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury, Morrissons, Co-op Group USA 20 % 22 % 42 % Wallmart, Kroger, Target, Walgreens, Costco Source: Euromonitor and Planet Retail. 26
There has been continual dialogue and debate as With regard to the number of stores across the key to the impacts that such industry structure may have banners and groups, Woolworths, Coles and IGA on the wider industry and the “paddock to plate” take the top three spots. value chain. The facts that we are facing state that, since the mid 1970’s, Coles and Woolworths have When the supermarkets are broken out of the total consistently increased their market shares, going grocery numbers, IGA has around 25 per cent of from a combined 35 per cent in 1975 to 79 per store numbers, followed by Woolworths at 17 per cent cent combined in 2009 and only recently levelling and Coles at 16 per cent. FoodWorks, ALDI, SPAR and out. Australia has become the most concentrated Franklins complete the rankings for supermarkets. grocery market in the world. When compared to Caution should be taken when comparing store other countries, Australia is the only market where numbers, especially stores in a metropolitan area two players have close to 80 per cent of the market. versus stores in regional Australia (IGA, FoodWorks). We will now turn to provide additional context to Independents have 40 per cent of the grocery the grocery sector in regards to the store numbers. stores in Australia overall with only 20 per cent of the Across all the grocery retail stores, the single largest market, due to the fact that they serve many small sector in regards to store numbers - with over 3000 regional and rural communities, with stores smaller stores is the “Other” category which relates to small than those operated by the big chains in major independent grocery retailers, in the convenience & urban centres. forecourt retailing sector. Fig 31. Grocery Retail Number of Stores (2009) Fig 32. Supermarkets Store Numbers (2009) Coles Coles 1388 Woolworths 802 Woolworths (16%) 17% IGA 763 IGA 3033 FoodWorks 16% 1147 1215 FoodWorks (35%) 25% (14%) Franklins Franklins 844 Spar 18% 1278 Spar Aldi 710 (15%) 15% Aldi 7 Eleven 250 (3%) Others 476 NightOwl (5%) 410 55 89 85 (5%) Caltex 231 88 (1%) 2% (0.1%) 89 (3%) (1%) BP 231 198 2% 5% (2%) Others Source: Euromonitor, Retailing in Australia 2009. Companises annual Source: Euromonitor, Retailing in Australia, 2009, companies annual reports 2009 olso includes Bi-Lo and Coles Express. IGA includes IGA reports 2009. Express. Spar includes Spar Express. Fig 30. Growth in Market Share of Woolworths & Coles (1975-2009) 90% 80% 70% 60% 46.2% 44% 45% 46% 50% 42% 35% 40% 29% 32% 26% 28% 20% 30% 20% 16% 18% 20% 33% 34% 34.5% 34% 33.4% 26% 26% 10% 18% 18% 20% 22% 24% 22% 24% 0% 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Coles Woolworths Source: AC Nielsen, Euromonitor. 27
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4. Australian food and grocery industry & "paddock to plate" context and structure The impact of the food industry stretches beyond Fig 33. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million) the retail end of the value chain and encompasses 2008 the “paddock to plate” eco-system of businesses that grow, process, reprocess and then sell the food in Australia and beyond. We will look at the structure $9,955.6, and the components of this eco-system more $20,382.4, 11% 23% closely in this part of the report. Fresh foods We will start, however, by delving a bit deeper first $23,045.4, Processed 26% packaged foods into the make up of the retail side of the food story, to provide additional detail as to the nature of the Other non foods $35,938.8, mix of goods and the role of food categories at the 40% manufactured goods end of the value chain. In the following pages, we set out the turnover of each grocery category and Tobacco the value added at each step in the supply chain. Taken together, they account for a large part of the Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations. Australian economy. They also reflect the purchasing choices of Australian supermarket customers on a daily and weekly basis. When we look a typical breakdown of total grocery figures across the key departments - fresh foods, processed and packaged foods, other non- foods and manufactured goods and tobacco - it becomes apparent that food still is the major component of the total value of goods sold through this channel – making up 66 per cent of the total. 29
Processed packaged goods (40 per cent) and Fig 35. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million) fresh foods (26 per cent) - that is food-based by Grocery Channel (2008) departments - are the two biggest contributors to $ million overall sales value. In terms of categories, drinks and confectionary (16.6 per cent), general merchandise 40,000 (11.7 per cent) and tobacco (11.1 per cent) are the 35,000 8% top three key value categories. [Fig. 34] 11% 30,000 It can also be observed that the goods have 25,000 different sales patterns across channels, reflecting 20,000 18% shoppers’ preferences and shopping occasions and 8% 31% 15,000 81% 2% missions: 22% 10,000 74% • Supermarkets dominate the processed packaged 68% 26% 5,000 goods and non foods areas 53% 0 Fresh foods Processed Other non Tobacco • Specialist grocery retailers are still key for fresh packaged foods foods food manufactured goods • Convenience and forecourt retailers play a key Supermarkets Convenience & forecourts retailers part for tobacco. [Fig 35] Specialists grocery retailers Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations. Fig 34. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million) 2008 Drinks & confectionary 16.6% General merchandise & other 11.7% Tobacco 11.1% Dry grocery 10.3% Health, beauty & personal care 9.0% Fresh meat/poultry/fish 8.4% Bakery products 8.0% Dairy 7.5% Fresh vegetables 5.2% Frozen foods 4.4% Fresh fruits 4.2% Household products 2.2% Chilled processed foods 0.9% Eggs 0.5% 0% 2% 4% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Share of grocery turnover (%) Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations. 30
Looking at the break down of the figure further Fig 36. Fresh Foods Categories we can profile the relative importance of specific Turnover ($ million) 2008 categories within each of the departments: • Within fresh foods – fresh meat/poultry/fish is the key component (33 per cent), followed by dairy $6,701 $4,620 (29 per cent) and fresh vegetables (20 per cent). (29%) (20%) [Fig 36] Fresh vegetables $3,780 • For processed packaged goods – drinks and Fresh fruits (16%) confectionary makes up 41 per cent of the Eggs value, followed by dry grocery (26 per cent) and $7,500 packaged bakery (20 per cent). [Fig. 37] (33%) Fresh meat/ poultry/fish $445 • For non foods – general merchandise dominates (2%) Dairy at 51 per cent followed by Health and Beauty at 39 per cent. [Fig. 38] Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, IBIS (fruit & vegetable retailing in Australia 2009 and ‘meat, fish & poultry retailing in Australia’) and other official statistics from industry associations. Fig 37. Processed Packaged Foods Categories Turnover ($ Million) 2008 $7,133 (20%) Chilled processed foods $9,224 (26%) Frozen foods $14,871 (41%) Dry grocery $3,948 Bakery products (11%) Drinks & confectionary $763 (2%) Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations. Fig 38. Non Food Manufactured Goods Categories Turnover ($ Million) 2008 $1,946 (10%) Household products $10,420 $8,017 Health, (51%) (39%) beauty & personal care General merchandise & other Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations. 31
The data and analysis presented above profiles Fig 39. Employment across the Chain in 2008 the Australian retail end of the “paddock to plate” grocery industry value chain, one that is much 450,000 411,500 bigger and wider in regard to its impact on the 400,000 Australian economy than grocery retail on its own. 290,850 350,000 The contribution of the value-add component to 300,000 209,920 the economy, across the primary, manufacturing 250,000 and retail steps in the value chain, is worth $126 200,000 billion – 61 per cent of the total turn-over value. 150,000 These figures make the grocery “paddock to plate” value chain eco-system a mission critical part of the 100,000 Australian economy. 50,000 0 As hinted in the section where we explored the Produce Make Sell employment profiles of the key industries in Australia – the “paddock to plate” grocery value chain Employment across the chain in 2008 employs more than 912,000 Australians, which is Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market statistics’ table 4. well in excess of the 411,000 that are employed by the retail portion of the value chain. Overall, the grocery ”paddock to plate” value chain is Fig 40. Number of Businesses (2007) worth approximately $209 billion to the Australian economy in turn-over - close to 20 per cent of the 200,000 total economy. It is made up of more than 218,000 180,000 179,493 businesses. It contributed around $25 billion in export 160,000 income to the Australian economy in 2008 – 11.5 per 140,000 cent of total exports for Australia. 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 31,560 40,000 20,000 7,035 0 Produce Make Sell (Grocery retail) Number of businesses (2007) Source: ABS catalogue 8165.0 counts of Australian businesses June 2003 to June 2007. Fig 41. Exports & Imports overview 2008 (A$ billion) Exports Imports $25.64 $18.74 58% 42% Source: ABARE, Australian Food Statistics 2008. 32
At the same time, the current trends of lowered Fig 42. Australia - "Paddock to Plate" value chain production put into question the industry’s ability values in $ Billion to continue to generate added value to Australian $ billion GDP, and the feasibility of effectively addressing current consumption demands from Australian 250 consumers. 209 Looking at the values for the grocery "paddock to 200 plate" value chain across its key product categories provides additional insights into the structure of this 150 industry in Australia: 126 104 • Fresh categories make up 25 per cent of total 100 value chain value at $52 billion, and contribute $30 billion in value-add creation for the value 52 58 53 39 chain. This is a ratio of 57 per cent for value add 50 30 component to the overall value. 0 • Processed packaged foods make up 50 per cent Grocery total Fresh Processed Non-food of total value chain value and represent the categories packaged manufactured largest component of the grocery value chain foods categories categories with $104 billion. Processed packaged goods Value chain value Value add value contribute with $58 billion in value-add creation for the value chain. This is a ratio of 56 per cent for Sources: ABS, ABARE, Euromonitor (retailing in Australia, Packaged Foods the value added component to the overall value. Australia, soft drinks Australia, chilled processed foods Australia Pet food/care Australia, cosmetics & toiletries Australia, households care • Non food categories make up 25 per cent of total Australia, consumer health Australia), Industry associations, Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, AFGC state of the industry report 2009, IBIS value chain with $53 billion, and with $39 billion (supermarkets and other grocery stores in Australia). in value-add. This is a ratio of 73 per cent for the value add component to the overall value – the highest ratio across the three areas. Fig 43. Australia - "Paddock to Plate - Comparative Rates of Value add components 80% 73% 61% 60% 57% 56% 40% 20% 0 Grocery Fresh Processed Non-food total categories packaged manufactured foods categories categories Sources: ABS, ABARE, Euromonitor (retailing in Australia, Packaged Foods Australia, soft drinks Australia, chilled processed foods Australia Pet food/care Australia, cosmetics & toiletries Australia, households care Australia, consumer health Australia), Industry associations, Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, AFGC state of the industry report 2009, IBIS (supermarkets and other grocery stores in Australia). 33
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