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Mutual Fund Review November 19, 2009 | Mutual Fund August 19, 2015 Mutual Fund Review
Mutual Fund Review August 19, 2015 Equity Markets ....................................................................................... 2 Debt Markets.......................................................................................... 3 MF industry synopsis ............................................................................ 4 MF Category Analysis............................................................................ 5 Equity funds...................................................................................... 5 Equity diversified funds ....................................................................... 6 Equity Infrastructure fund.................................................................... 7 Equity Banking Funds .......................................................................... 8 Equity FMCG........................................................................................ 8 Equity Pharma Funds .......................................................................... 9 Equity Technology Funds.................................................................... 9 Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) ....................................................... 10 Balanced funds ............................................................................... 11 Monthly Income Plans (MIP) .......................................................... 11 Arbitrage Funds .............................................................................. 12 Debt funds ...................................................................................... 13 Liquid Funds ...................................................................................... 14 Income funds..................................................................................... 15 Gilt Funds ........................................................................................ 16 Gold ETFs: Medium term outlook benign......................................... 17 Model Portfolios .................................................................................. 18 Equity funds model portfolio.......................................................... 18 Debt funds model portfolio ............................................................ 19 Top Picks.............................................................................................. 20 Note: Whenever, returns for the scheme are shown in the report, they are for the growth option of the scheme. ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research
CNX Nifty: Volatility increases in last few months Equity Markets 9000 Update 8500 Indian equity markets have been trading in a narrow range amid some volatility in the last two months 8000 Profit booking after the steady rise of nearly 9% in June-July, a 7500 stalemate in the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament and renewed weakness in Chinese equity markets weighed on sentiments. This 7000 resulted in a subdued performance thereafter 6500 The broader markets, however, continued their positive momentum with the BSE midcap index blazing to hit a new life-time high Nov-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Global markets recovered during July 2015 on receding concerns over Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Greece and the deal between Iran and the international community. However, volatility increased post a sharp correction in the Chinese Midcap, small caps outperform… market during August 2015 2.3 2.5 Worries over monsoons continue to recede with the overall deficit 2.0 coming down to 9% below its long term average for the period 0.9 1.5 -0.3 1.0 -0.7 -1.3 Return (%) 0.5 between June 1 and August 9, 2015. The sowing, domestically, has, 0.0 however, been encouraging post the initial spell of rains particularly in -0.5 -1.0 pulses, rice and oilseeds. The same will help contain any sharp rise in -1.5 -2.0 prices, going forward BSE BSE BSE 500 BSE 100 BSE Midcap Small Sensex Cap Outlook The fact that the markets factored in a slew of negativity surrounding Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research the Greek referendum, Chinese equity meltdown and weak monsoon Returns : July 16, 2015– August 14, 2015 forecast domestically while overcoming the overhead resistance adds IT shows maximum gain to the significance of this bullish turnaround 15 Continuance of FII buying in Indian equities is also likely to continue as 9.8 10 most emerging markets are facing various difficulties including a -13.6 commodity sell-off, slowing growth and currency depreciation. In this 3.3 2.8 1.8 5 0.7 0.1 Return (%) 0 backdrop, India remains relatively well placed as short-term money -5 flows there amid fast shrinking investment avenues -1.3 -2.3 -3.6 -5.6 -5.7 -10 Structurally, the outlook for the Indian equity markets has improved -15 significantly. This is on the back of a steep correction in commodities, Reality Auto Con.Dura FMCG Metal Healthcare Sensex PSU Banking Cap.Goods Oil &Gas IT especially crude oil & industrial metals, 75 bps repo rate cut, subsequent transmission of the same to the corporate balance sheets and relatively stable exchange rates Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research However, given that the markets have already rallied significantly in the Returns : July 16, 2015– August 14, 2015 last two years, particularly midcaps, some caution is required while investing. The investment strategy should be to utilise any 100-200 Research Analyst points correction in Nifty to build the equity portfolio Sachin Jain One of the major concerns for the market currently is the ongoing sachin.jain@icicisecurities.com logjam in Parliament, which may derail the passage of important reform Sheetal Ashar legislations like GST and Land Acquisition Bill. The deferral of sheetal.ashar@icicisecurites.com implementation of GST from April next year would be a major setback for the markets Isha Bansal isha.bansal@icicisecurities.com Corporate India is witnessing green shoots in terms of recovery and flow of operating leverage (increase in utilisation levels, change in favourable product mix and lower input costs) and financial leverage (improvement in working capital cycle and lower rates). This may gradually translate to improved profitability in a few quarters We expect markets to remain in a consolidation mode and undergo a base building process in the coming months amid volatility on global news flows and the result season. Any sharp correction should be utilised to build the equity portfolio ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 2
Debt Markets G-Sec yields turn volatile after rallying significantly last Update year In the third bi monthly monetary policy, RBI left the repo rate, CRR and 9.0 SLR unchanged due to front loading of the earlier rate cut, partial transmission to bank lending rates and upside surprise in CPI in June. 8.5 RBI, however, maintained an accommodative stance and revised down its January-March 2016 inflation projection by 20 bps to 5.8% Yield (%) 8.0 The liquidity environment remains comfortable with net selling under the LAF window averaging ~ | 3,345 crore in July (vs. borrowing of | 4,025 crore in June). Banks borrowed on an average |171 crore in July 7.5 2015 (until July 30) from the RBI’s marginal standing facility (MSF) Nov-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 compared with | 623 crore in the previous month CPI July 2015 slipped to an eight-month low of 3.78% while WPI came Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research in at -4.05% slightly below expectations. CPI food inflation (CFPI) dropped substantially to 2.15% YoY (0.8% MoM). Core CPI is hovering Fiscal roadmap around 4.1% YoY (0.4% MoM). CPI June 2015 was maintained at Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP Target 5.40%. WPI July 2015 stayed in the red at -4.05% for the ninth FY15 (Revised Estimates) 4.1 consecutive month. Core WPI at -1.39 signifies slack demand for input FY16 3.9 commodities FY17 3.5 FY18 3.0 On easing liquidity, three months to 12 months CP/CD rates have eased further by 10-20 bps in the last month. One year CP/CDs are currently trading at 8.40% and 7.85%, respectively Rates across maturities softened 10-20 bps during last month due to Source: RBI, ICICIdirect.com Research improved liquidity conditions and benign inflation outlook Brent crude oil fell sharply by around 18% during July on account of G-sec yield curve shifts lower expectations of low demand, going forward, due to weak economic data across the globe, especially from China and rise in supply from 8.2 Iran post lifting of international sanctions. Other widely used industrial 7.9 8.0 7.8 8.0 commodities like copper, zinc, rubber, sugar, etc. have also seen a 7.7 correction in global prices Yield (%) 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.5 As the fall in crude and industrial commodities is inflationary and fiscal 7.4 positive, this will keep the outlook for bond markets upbeat 1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr Outlook FII inflows into the Indian debt market have subsided as the limit for FII 13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15 investment in government securities has already been exhausted. FII flows have been negative since April 2015 to the extent of US$524 Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research million vs. net inflows of US$27 billion in FY15. With expectations of no increase in the limit in the near term, the same is keeping the pressure on the markets Corporate bond yield becoming steeper However, domestic mutual funds have been upbeat on the Indian debt 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.4 market outlook and have poured in | 1.31 lakh crore in the first four 8.5 8.5 8.3 months of FY16 8.4 Yield (%) 8.3 8.4 8.5 Concerns over below normal monsoons have subsided to a large 8.3 8.2 extent. As the fall in crude and industrial commodities is inflationary 8.1 and fiscal positive, this will keep the outlook for bond markets upbeat 8.0 1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr Indian debt markets remain attractive from a medium-term perspective 13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15 as the inflation trend remains on a downward trajectory and well within RBI’s target range Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Investors may consider both duration funds as well as accrual funds depending on their risk return profile ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 3
MF industry synopsis In July 2015, assets under management (AUM) grew 31% YoY to | 1317267 crore with share of equity oriented funds at 30% from 25% in July 2014. Total net inflows in MFs were | 119060 crore in July 2015 due to substantial inflows into liquid and income funds Inflows into equity schemes were at | 6133 crore during July 2015. Income funds received a handsome | 21713 crore of net inflows during July 2015. Liquid funds received inflows to the tune of | 89978 crore Exhibit 1: Equity AUM drives overall AUM 35% 1400000 32% 32% 31% 31% 31% 30% 31% 31% 1200000 29% 27% 25% 25% 1000000 23% 20% 19% 20% 800000 | Crore 15% 600000 10% 400000 1006452 1012824 1095653 1090309 1051343 1181356 1202196 1082807 1186364 1203547 1173294 1317267 959415 5% 200000 0% 0 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Total AUM (RHS) Growth (YoY) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 2: AUM share July 2014 Exhibit 3: AUM share July 2015…share of equity AUM increases significantly in past one year FOF(Overseas) Other ETFs 0% FOF(Overseas) Balanced 1% 2% Other ETFs 0% Equity Balanced 1% 25% 3% Equity Income 30% Income Gold ETFs 46% 42% 1% Gold ETFs 0% Money Market Gilt Gilt 24% 1% Money Market 1% 23% Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com, Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com, Research Exhibit 4: HDFC AMC maintains top position, Franklin Templeton records Exhibit 5: HDFC, Reliance highest contributors to increase in AAUM highest YoY growth in AAUM DSP BlackRock MF IDFC MF Others HDFC MF 1% 165013 200000 5% 13% 15% 155522 144693 175000 Jun-15 Jun-14 125502 150000 Kotak Mahindra Reliance MF 92730.2 MF 16% 125000 83693 4% | Cr 74312 100000 54497.9 48076.6 Ipru MF 36036.5 75000 130036 118056 112914 Franklin 13% 98556 79441 69213 50987 43694 35521 33113 50000 Tempelton MF 25000 10% Birla Sunlife MF SBI MF UTI MF 11% Reliance Tempelton Mahindra Ipru MF IDFC MF HDFC MF Sunlife MF UTI MF SBI MF BlackRock Franklin Kotak MF Birla DSP 6% 6% Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 4
MF Category Analysis Equity funds Midcap funds have significantly outperformed large cap funds in the last year Among sector funds, pharma funds delivered highest returns in the last year Exhibit 6: Pharma, midcap clear winners (returns as on August 16, 2015) 46.3 50 45 38.8 35.8 40 34.0 35 Midcap funds gained on multiple re-rating as a fall in 28.2 25.8 30 Returns (%) 24.2 23.9 commodity prices helped midcaps post better growth with 22.1 21.1 20.6 20.6 25 20.0 19.5 19.5 19.3 improved margins in Q1FY16 18.6 18.2 18.2 20 15.0 12.9 11.3 15 9.2 10 5.5 5 0 Pharma Mid cap Diversified Banking FMCG Technology Infrastructure Large Cap 1 year 3 Year 5 year Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research ; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns Exhibit 7: Inflow into equity funds moderates in July 2015 but still better Exhibit 8: Equity AUM soars led by record inflows, market rally 13500 10845 12273 10584 11500 393602 10076 372313 365166 9500 7946 8481 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) 345739 345139 345129 340936 6324 450000 319478 314684 7500 560049636651 6133 297160 5364 400000 280397 5840 266742 251630 5500 350000 | lakh Crore 3500 300000 1500 250000 -500 200000 -2500 150000 -4500 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Net inflow (Equity + ELSS) Equity +ELSS Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 9: Deployment of equity funds \ Exposure to banks and finance stocks together account for Consumer Industrial Industrial Allocation Banks Software Pharma Auto Finance Non- Construction Petroleum Capital the highest proportion with 27% of equity assets followed Products Durables Goods by technology and pharma | crore 78582 35410 29744 27164 24041 19826 17169 16022 15,892 14040 % of total 20.5 9.3 7.8 7.1 6.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 3.7 Source: Sebi, ICICIdirect.com Research, Sector Classification (as per Amfi) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 5
Equity diversified funds View Short term: Positive Equity diversified funds delivered healthy returns last year. Midcap Long-term: Positive funds were outperformers with 39% one year average return followed by multicap funds with one year average return of 24% and then large caps with 18% return against BSE Sensex return of 8% as on August 14, 2015 The fact that the markets factored in a slew of negative news surrounding the Greek referendum, Chinese equity meltdown and weak monsoon forecast domestically while overcoming the overhead resistance adds to the significance of this bullish turnaround Although earnings growth may remain muted in the next couple of quarters, it is expected to improve significantly in FY17 and FY18. The same may keep market sentiments upbeat The structural medium to long term outlook for the Indian equity market remains positive supported by lower commodity prices, benefit of lower interest rates and policy action by the government to spur investments and, consequently, overall growth. However, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term led by the ongoing logjam in Parliament, which may derail the passage of important reform legislations like GST and land acquisition bill The Sensex is currently trading at 17.3x FY16E EPS of | 1608 and 14.6x FY17E EPS of | 1901, which provides comfort. Investors should accumulate multicap funds following a buy on dips or SIP strategy Caution is required in midcap and small cap mutual funds as they have significantly outperformed large caps in the current market rally since September 2013. Therefore, if the overall market volatility increases, midcap and small caps funds in the near term may underperform. Investment in the same should only be over a five year investment horizon Recommended funds Large cap Axis Equity Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity ICICI Prudential Focused Bluechip Equity SBI Bluechip UTI Opportunities Diversified Franklin India Prima Plus Fund ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan Reliance Equity Opportunities Midcap HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund SBI Magnum Global Fund (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 6
Equity Infrastructure fund View After a clear mandate, the government unveiled its 10-year agenda to Short-term: Positive focus on infrastructure, especially in road & railways like the dedicated Long-term: Positive freight corridor (US$80 billion), Diamond Quadrilateral (Mumbai Ahmedabad bullet train preliminary cost pegged at | 65,000 crore), Sagar Mala project (| 1 lakh crore project) and Bharat Mala project (| 55000 crore project). With increased focus on road development, NHIDCL is set to award projects worth | 1.3 lakh crore over the next five years with additional 1500 km of highways under the Bharat Mala project whereas NHAI plans to award 20000 km of road projects (| 1.8 lakh crore) in the next couple of years. This lends comfort that there will be tangible opportunities in the long run for infrastructure players Secondly, the government's progress towards speeding up the decision making process towards low hanging fruits/stuck project worth | 8 lakh crore would not only lead to better execution but also improve the liquidity of various infrastructure projects Also, increase in allocation to road sector & ports, rationalisation of capital tax gains regime for sponsors & tax pass through status for infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) and establishment of National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) with initial annual outflow of | 20,000 crore in the recent Union Budget would pave the way for greater opportunities for various infrastructure players Thirdly, the relatively good monsoon than forecasted re-ignites the hopes of softening inflation and interest rates, which could lead to possible valuation upgrades on account of interest outgo and lower discount rates Fourthly, with the RBI's recent action allowing banks to issue long term bonds for infrastructure with benefits such as relaxation of CRR & SLR norms and longer duration of bonds, we believe the pressure on developers to fund infrastructure projects would ease. Hence, cost of funds and strain on cash flow are likely to reduce, going ahead Going ahead, while we believe there would be opportunities in the infrastructure, we remain selectively positive on the sector Preferred Picks Franklin Build India Fund Refer to HDFC Infrastructure Fund www.icicidirect.com for ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund details of the fund ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 7
Equity Banking Funds View Short-term: Neutral Subdued profitability continued for PSU banks in the quarter ending Long-term: Positive June 2015 due to lower growth (loan growth for most PSU Banks in single digits), subdued margins and rising NPA provisions. Further, there were no large gains on treasury investment front which supported their financials in the last three quarters against higher provisions Slippages i.e. fresh NPAs remain elevated for most PSU banks. During the quarter, a large part of slippages came from the restructured book. The management has indicated that NPA pain may continue for at least the next two quarters Private banks, on the other hand, continued with the healthy performance on profitability The recent reform measures planned under “Indradhanush” for PSU banks including capitalisation of | 25000 crore for FY16 is positive over the longer term. Appointment of private sector honchos can also be a game changer in overall strategy management of PSU banks We believe that, going ahead, asset quality woes and, consequently, growth concerns for PSU banks will continue for the bulk of FY16E. We suggest considering PSU bank stocks for a two-year investment horizon. Though private banks are also seeing moderation, a steady operational performance ahead should provide investors with better returns over the next two or three years. The expected turnaround in the economy should augur well for the banking sector, as a whole. Hence, we remain positive on the sector over the long term Preferred Picks ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Refer to Reliance Banking Fund www.icicidirect.com for UTI Thematic - Banking Sector Fund details of the fund Equity FMCG View FMCG companies continue to witness muted demand from both rural & Short-term: Neutral urban India. With the significant correction in commodity prices, the Long-term: Neutral industry has taken price cuts to pass on raw material benefit. This has affected revenue growth mainly due to the absence of a price hike in sales. However, a decline in commodity prices has resulted in a considerable expansion in operating margins despite companies increasing their advertisement & promotion (A&P) spend In the last month, the valuation multiples of FMCG companies have seen some contraction in the wake of stringent action by the food regulator after Nestlé’s Maggi controversy. We believe recent events would remain an overhang on FMCG stocks. This may result in a further contraction of premium multiples it commands vis-à-vis the market Preferred Picks ICICI Prudential FMCG Fund Refer to SBI FMCG Fund www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 8
Equity Pharma Funds View Strong visibility on the back of a good product basket and a reasonable Short-term: Neutral base business growth continue to attract buying interest in the pharma Long-term: Positive sector despite premium valuations US and Indian formulations remain the main growth drivers for the sector on the back of a strong pipeline and incremental product launches. Healthy operating margins, relatively low leverage and strong return ratios are some of the other attributes for most pharma players However, the pharma sector has significantly outperformed other sectors in the last few year. Therefore, they may undergo some consolidation in the near term Preferred Picks Reliance Pharma Fund Refer to SBI Pharma Fund www.icicidirect.com UTI-Pharma & Healthcare for details of the fund Equity Technology Funds View Tier-I IT companies reported average 3.1% QoQ (2.3% estimate) dollar Short-term: Neutral revenue growth in Q1FY16 vs. 1.2% decline in Q4FY15 and 3% in Long-term: Positive Q1FY15 as Q1 is a seasonally strong quarter and cross currencies were stable. Infosys reported stellar revenue beat, TCS and HCL Tech were inline while Wipro was marginally below. Wage hikes, visa expenses, business investments (S&M, onsite) were key margin headwinds which were partially offset by currency tailwinds and operational efficiency. FY16E commentary was upbeat led by healthy deal signings and traction in digital technologies Operationally, discretionary spending remains healthy in the US and led growth while other markets (Europe, APAC) were soft. Insurance, telecom and oil & gas verticals are structurally challenged and growth continues to be uneven. Average rupee has depreciated ~2% in Q2FY16E and could aid margins leading to earnings upgrade in FY16E, FY17E. Upsides could be in line with earnings upgrades given blended valuations are at ~17x FY17E. However, sharp sell-offs should be used to accumulate given long-term growth prospects. Preferred Picks ICICI Prudential Technology Fund Refer to DSPBR Technology fund www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 9
Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) In India, three kinds of ETFs are available: Equity Index ETFs, liquid ETFs and gold ETFs An equity index ETF tracks a particular equity index such as the BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty, Nifty Junior, etc An equity index ETF scores higher than index funds on several grounds. Traded volumes should be the major criterion that is used The expense of investing in ETFs is relatively less by 0.50-1.00% in while deciding on investment in ETFs. Higher volumes comparison to an index fund. The expense ratio for ETFs is in the range ensure lower spread and better pricing to investors... of 0.50-0.75% excluding brokerage while for index funds the expense ratio varies in the range of 1.0-1.5%. However, brokerage (which varies) Tracking error, though it should be considered, is not the is applicable on ETFs while there are no entry loads now on index funds deciding factor as variation among funds is not huge... The tracking error, which explains the extent of deviation of returns from the underlying index, is usually low in ETFs as it tracks the equity index on a real time basis whereas it is done only once in a day for index funds ETFs also provide liquidity as they are traded on stock exchanges and investors may subscribe or redeem them even on an intra-day basis. This is unavailable in index funds, which are subscribed/redeemed only on a closing NAV basis There are over 400 ETFs traded globally. ETFs are transparent and cost efficient. The decision on which ETF to buy should be largely governed by the decision on getting exposure in that asset class Volumes are higher only in the Goldman Sachs Benchmark ETFs and tracking error is also lowest at 0.01%. Therefore, it is our top pick for investors wanting Nifty-linked returns CPSE ETF is a new entry in the Goldman Sachs ETF offering. The ETF invests in selective 10 PSU stocks and has been listed on the exchange since April. It has delivered healthy 45% return since its launch. Also, bonus units at the end of the year will also provide additional benefit Exhibit 10: CPSE ETF leads outflows Exhibit 11: AUM moderates 1000 10000 8060 773 7795 752 7404 7322 7317 7170 7056 800 623 6702 8000 5997 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) 429 492 5465 600 5239 5083 4737 400 211 6000 128 | Crore 200 51 73 4000 0 2000 -200 -400 -216 0 -334 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 -600 -439 -800 -579 Nov-14 Aug-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Sep-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Dec-14 Other ETFs Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 10
Balanced funds View Balanced funds are hybrid funds. More than 65% of the overall portfolio Short-term: Positive is invested in equities. Hence, as per provisions of the Income Tax Act, Long-term: Positive 1961, any capital gains over one year become tax free. Also, dividends declared by funds are tax free In case you separately invest 35% of your investible corpus in a debt fund, the same will be subject to higher taxation. However, if the whole corpus is invested in balanced funds, 100% shall have lower taxation applicable as mentioned above Investors with a limited investible surplus and a lower risk After a sharp rally in equity markets, the funds can be a preferred appetite but with a willingness to invest in equities can investment avenue as the debt proportion serves to protect on look to invest in these funds intermediate relief rallies or the downturn while providing 65% participation on further upsides Exhibit 12: Moderate inflow… Exhibit 13: …leads to AUM growth 34550 5000 32259 4500 38000 4419 28749 4000 27015 33000 26507 26368 25792 24490 3500 22769 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) 28000 | Crore 21080 3000 18277 17293 23000 16217 2500 1789 2000 2075 1491 18000 732 879 1500 1358 1235 1183 13000 1000 835 1202 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 500 348 448 0 Nov-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jan-15 Feb-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Dec-14 Balanced Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Preferred Picks ICICI Prudential Balanced - Advantage Fund HDFC Balanced Fund Tata Balanced Fund (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) Monthly Income Plans (MIP) View An MIP offers investors an option to invest in debt with some Short-term: Neutral participation in equity, ~10-25% of the portfolio. They are suitable for Long-term: Positive investors who seek higher return from a debt portfolio and are comfortable taking nominal risk. The debt corpus of the portfolio provides regular income while the equity portion of the fund provides alpha. However, returns can also get eroded by a fall in equities MIP should be a preferred debt investment for funds that MIPs can be classified into aggressive MIP and conservative MIP based need to be parked for over two years on its equity allocation. Risk averse investors should invest in MIPs with lower equity allocation to avoid capital erosion The change in taxation announced in the Union Budget 2014, shall be applicable to MIP funds (refer to debt funds section for details) Preferred Picks Birla Sun Life MIP II - Savings 5 Plan ICICI Prudential MIP 25 DSPBR MIP Fund (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 11
Arbitrage Funds View Arbitrage funds seek to exploit market inefficiencies that get manifested Short-term: Positive as mispricing in the cash (stock) and derivative markets Long-term: Positive Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. A directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market and cost of funding makes futures positions biased Arbitrage funds are classified as equity funds as they invest into equity share and equity derivative instruments. Since these are classified as equity funds for taxation, dividends declared by the funds are tax free. No capital gains tax will be applicable if they are sold after a year These funds can be looked upon as an alternative to liquid funds. However, for these funds, returns totally depend on arbitrage opportunities available at a particular point of time and investors should consider reviewing the same before investing. Returns of arbitrage funds are non-linear and, therefore, unsuitable for investors who want consistent return across time period Arbitrage funds should be used as a liquid investment and should not be a major part of the investor’s portfolio Availability of arbitrage positions depends very much on the market scenario. Directional movement in the broader index attracts speculators in the market while cost of funding makes future positions biased In case of positive movement, long build-up in futures puts pricing in an upward bias and creates a window for direct arbitrage positions On the other hand, negative bias attracts fresh sellers in the market. Speculators try to sell the stock much cheaper than theoretical prices. In such situations, reverse arbitrage opportunities arise On the other hand, a range bound market does not give ample room to create arbitrage positions Preferred Picks ICICI Prudential Equity - Arbitrage Fund – Regular IDFC Arbitrage Fund - (Regular) Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund SBI Arbitrage Opportunities Fund (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 12
Debt funds Exhibit 14: Category average returns 14.00 11.77 11.55 12.00 9.72 8.93 8.90 8.90 8.87 8.77 8.74 8.72 10.00 8.40 8.14 8.13 Within short-term funds, credit opportunities funds have 8.00 delivered better consistent returns over a longer period % 4.77 6.00 3.36 4.00 2.00 0.00 6 months 1 year 3year Gilt Funds Income LT Income ST Income UST Liquid Source: ACE MF, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Returns as on August 16, 2015; Returns over one year are compounded annualised returns Exhibit 15: Deployment of funds: July 2015 Government Securities 1 year and above Corporate Debt CP Bank CD Investment into securities with maturity of less than 90 182 days to 1 year Bank CD Treasury Bills days and more than one year dominates total investments by mutual funds CBLO 90 days to 182 Bank CD days Other Money Market Investments Corporate Debt Less than 90 days CP Bank CD PSU Bonds 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 Securitised Debt Bank FD Source: SEBI, ICICIdirect.com Research Note : Holding as percentage of total AUM Exhibit 16: G-Sec yield curve Exhibit 17: Corporate bond curve 8.1 8.7 7.9 8.0 8.6 7.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9 8.5 7.9 8.4 8.4 8.4 Yield (%) Yield (%) 7.8 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.7 8.2 7.7 8.1 7.6 8.0 7.5 7.5 1yr 3yr 5yr 10 yr 1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr 13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15 13-Aug-15 16-Jul-15 Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 13
Liquid Funds View Neutral Liquid fund returns moderated to 8.1-8.7% pre tax from over 9% earned in the previous year The Reserve Bank’s proactive liquidity management operations ensured that Call rates stayed range bound around the policy rate reducing day- to-day volatility. The CBLO rates also hovered just above the repo rate. With an improvement in liquidity conditions, the certificate of deposit and commercial paper rates in the three month bracket also eased by over 100 bps to the 7.5-8% range from 9.1-9.3%. The same is likely to moderate returns in liquid funds going forward For less than a year, individuals in the higher tax bracket should opt for dividend option as the dividend distribution tax @ 28.325% is marginally lower. Also, though the tax arbitrage has reduced, they still earn better pre-tax returns over bank savings (3-4%) and current accounts (0-3%) Changes in taxation rules announced in Union Budget 2014 are also applicable to liquid funds, as post tax returns in less than a three-year period gets reduced for individuals falling in the higher tax bracket (30% tax slab) and for corporates Exhibit 18: Call rates near repo rate Exhibit 19: …CP/CD yields decline 12 10.0 11 9.5 10 9.0 9 % % 8 8.5 7 8.0 6 7.5 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-14 Jul-14 Apr-15 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Call rate 3M CD 3M CP Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 20: Flows into liquid funds remain volatile on institutional activity Exhibit 21: AUM increases in July due to net inflow 100,611 85,848 101,592 300738 89,978 278807 120,000 276070 266722 265358 330000 253899 245035 244220 25,589 228149 80,000 206979 280000 8,784 184525 178491 40,000 162562 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) 230000 | Crore 0 180000 -5,864 -15,657 -40,000 -47,330 130000 -50,786 -52,460 -80,000 -67,318 80000 -120,000 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Mar-15 -112,810 -160,000 -200,000 Money Market Nov-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Dec-14 Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Preferred Picks HDFC Cash Management Fund - Savings Plan SBI Magnum InstaCash Reliance Liquid Fund - Treasury Plan (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 14
Income funds View Ultra-short term: Positive In the income funds category, long term debt funds outperformed Short-term: Positive delivering 11.5% absolute return in last year (as on August 16, 2015) Long-term: Positive We continue to remain positive on the Indian debt markets as they are well placed to benefit from a structural improvement in macroeconomic data and expect the positive undertone of the debt market to sustain The corporate bond market segment continues to be attractive especially with expectations of an improvement in corporate profitability, going ahead, and an improved economic outlook. The credit opportunities funds are better placed due to stable returns and a change in taxation warranting a minimum holding period of three years to avail indexation benefits The recent sell-off in yields of government securities provide an investment opportunity for aggressive investors to add duration funds with a one or two year investment horizon. Credit opportunities fund can also be looked upon by investors who prefer stable returns profile Exhibit 22: Income funds witness substantial inflows Exhibit 23: AUM increases 25,000 21,713 19,844 555884 20,000 528900 522366 522178 520234 515773 514628 502154 500595 15,446 600000 475968 471651 461114 15,000 454495 550000 12,163 500000 Net Inflows 10,000 5,861 | Crore 450000 (| .Cr) 4,205 5,000 400000 350000 -152 0 -1,632 -2,510 300000 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 -5,000 -8,927 -10,080 Oct-14 -10,567 -10,000 Sep-14 -12,696 -15,000 Income Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research Recommended funds Ultra Short Term Funds Birla Sun Life Savings Fund Ultra-short-term fund returns are attractive on risk adjusted Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund basis ICICI Prudential Flexible income Short Term Funds Birla Sunlife short term fund Short-term funds will benefit as the bond curve reverts to HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund an upward slopping curve. Credit opportunities funds earn ICICI Pru Short Term Plan the highest accrual and are the best in the category Short Term Funds – Credit opportunities Birla Sunlife Medium term Franklin India Short term Plan HDFC Corporate debt opportunities ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Dynamic bond funds are suitable for all types of investors Long term/Dynamic and for longer duration. They can take exposure to all Birla Sunlife income plus durations as per the interest rate outlook and switch ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond Fund between G secs and corporate bonds IDFC dynamic bond fund (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 15
Gilt Funds View Short-term: Neutral In July 2015, gilt funds delivered 11.7% absolute return in the last year, Long-term: Neutral the highest among debt funds. We believe the odds remain in favour of the government securities yield trending down over the next one or two years. However, gilt funds will be less attractive due to the longer holding period (more than three years) as lower accrual income will neutralise the impact of moderate capital gains in the near term The front loaded rate cuts by the RBI can push overall interest rates down depending on how soon banks transmit it into the system by re- pricing their assets and liabilities lower The central government has signed a memorandum with the RBI setting out a clear inflation objective to bring the inflation rate to the mid-point of the band of 4 +/- 2%. CPI, as per our assessment, should average close to 5% for FY16 (on assumption of normal monsoon and a stable currency). The government’s commitment towards controlling price shocks and steps taken to improve the supply chain are commendable. Also, global prices that have corrected sharply are supportive be they crude, metal or food prices. Hence, inflation should likely stay on the intended path. This creates room for the RBI to cut rates by another 100-150 bps to earn a real return of ~1.5-2% On the supply front, the Budget has pegged the market borrowing for FY16 at | 6 lakh crore on a gross basis and | 4.56 lakh crore on a net basis. Both gross and net market borrowings were close to market expectations. Borrowings related concern is expected to come down, given the government’s commitment towards reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP by FY17 Aggressive investor can invest in gilt funds with an investment horizon of one or two years Recommended funds Birla Sun Life Gilt Plus - PF Plan - Regular ICICI Prudential LT Gilt Fund - PF Option - Regular (Refer to www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) Exhibit 24: Net inflows as low Inflation increases rate cut expectation 2500 2090 2058 1813 2000 1439 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) 1500 875 814 1000 367 500 190 164 132 110 -209 -279 0 -500 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 Oct-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Dec-14 Source: AMFI, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 16
Gold ETFs: Medium term outlook remain benign Global gold prices after falling sharply by ~7% during July 2015 on account of selling pressure form Chinese investors and expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and strength in the dollar index, recovered some of its losses in August 2015 after surprise devaluation of its currency by Chinese authorities The recent devaluation of Yuan by the Chinese government may increase fear about currency war among emerging markets. The same may provide some support to gold prices in the near term due to safe heaven demand However, the medium-term, investment demand for gold is largely governed by the broader economic climate. One of the major determinants of investment demand is inflationary concerns. With a low Technically, after the multiyear bull phase during 2004-12, global economic growth environment adding to deflationary pressure, gold prices corrected significantly. The violation of the long inflationary demand factor for gold remains absent in the near term term trend line highlights the breach of a decade long trend Another major determinant for global gold prices is real interest rates. of out performance and signals a period of medium-term With the US Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates, going forward, consolidation the opportunity cost of holding gold will increase while the same is likely to put pressure on gold prices from a medium-term perspective Exhibit 25: International gold price subdued… Exhibit 26: …domestic prices follows global trend 34000 1400 32000 1350 30000 1300 | 28000 1250 1200 26000 1150 24000 Apr-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 1100 1050 Nov-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Price (|/10 grams) Price ($/Ounce) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 27: Outflows for second year…. 0 -32 -38 Net Inflow ( | Cr ) -47 -50 -69 -74 -76 -86 -105 -111 -111 -112 -131 Two years of outflow -200 Nov-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Source: Amfi, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 17
Model Portfolios Equity funds model portfolio Investors who are wary of investing directly into equities can still get returns almost as good as equity markets through the mutual fund route. We have designed three mutual fund model portfolios, namely, conservative, moderate and aggressive mutual fund portfolios. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, investment objective, scheme ratings, and fund management. We have changed the mutual funds portfolio in July, to include midcap funds as we believe an improvement in the growth scenario may generate better alpha in midcap stocks over large cap stocks Exhibit 28: Equity model portfolio Particulars Aggressive Moderate Conservative Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly Risk Return High Risk- High Return Medium Risk - Low Risk - Low Return Medium Return Funds Allocation % Allocation Franklin India Prima Plus 20 20 20 Birla Sunlife Frontline Equity 20 20 20 ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - - 20 UTI Opportunites Fund - 20 20 Reliance Long term Equity 20 - - ICICI Prudential Value Discovery 20 20 20 HDFC Midcap Opportunities 20 20 Grand Total(a+b) 100 100 100 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 29: Model portfolio performance : One year performance (as on July 31,2015) 30% 25% 25% 21% 20% 16% 15% % 10% 8% 5% 0% Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100 Aggressive Moderate Conservative BSE 100 Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, ICICIdirect.com Research Portfolio inception date : April 15, 2009 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 18
Debt funds model portfolio We have designed three different mutual fund model portfolios for different investment duration namely less than six months, six months to one year and above one year. These portfolios have been designed keeping in mind various key parameters like investment horizon, interest rate scenarios, credit quality of the portfolio and fund management, etc. Exhibit 30: Debt funds model portfolio Particulars Time Horizon 0 – 6 months 6months - 1 Year Above 1 Year Liquidity with Objective Liquidity moderate return Above FD Review Interval Monthly Monthly Quarterly Very Low Risk - Medium Risk - Low Risk - High Risk Return Nominal Return Medium Return Return Funds Allocation % Allocation Ultra Short term Funds Birla SL Savings Fund 20 Franklin India Ultra Short Bond Fund 20 ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan 20 Short Term Debt Funds Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan 20 Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund 20 20 Birla Sunlife Short Term Opportunites Fund 20 Franklin India Short Term Income Fund 20 HDFC Medium Term Opportunities Fund 20 HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund 20 20 ICICI Prudential Regular Savings 20 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 20 IDFC SSI Short Term Sundaram Select Debt 20 UTI Short Term Fund Long Term/Dynamic Debt Funds IDFC Dynamic Bond fund 20 Total 100 100 100 Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 31: Model portfolio performance 12.0 11.10 9.82 10.0 9.24 9.28 8.33 8.37 8.0 6.0 % 4.0 2.0 0.0 0-6 Months 6Months - 1Year Above 1yr Portfolio Index Source: Crisil Fund Analyser, , ICICIdirect.com Research *Index: 0-6 month’s portfolio – Crisil Liquid Fund Index; 6 months-1 year – Crisil Short term Index Above 1 year: Crisil Composite Bond Index ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 19
Top Picks Exhibit 32: Category wise top picks Equity Category Top Picks Largecaps Axis Equity Fund Birla Sunlife Frontline equity Fund ICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity Fund UTI Opportunities Fund SBI Bluechip fund Midcaps HDFC Midcap Opportunities Fund ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund SBI Magnum Global Fund Diversified Franklin India Prima Plus ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan Reliance Equity Opportunities ELSS Axis Long Term Equity ICICI Prudential Tax Plan Franklin India Tax shield Debt Liquid Funds HDFC Cash Mgmnt Saving Plan ICIC Pru Liquid Plan Reliance Liquid Treasury Plan Ultra Short Term Birla Sunlife Savings Fund Franklin India Ultra Short Term Bond Fund ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan Short Term Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund ICICI Pru Short Term Plan Credit Opportunities Fund Birla Sunlife Medium Term Plan Franklin India Short term Plan ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Income Funds ICICI Prudenti Dynamic Bond Fund Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Regular Plan IDFC Dynamic Bond Fund Gilts Funds ICICI Pru Gilt Inv. PF Plan Birla Sunlife Gilt Plus MIP Birla Sunlife Savings 5 ICICI Prudential MIP 25 (Refer www.icicidirect.com for details of the fund) ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail MF Research Page 20
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 research@icicidirect.com Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, We Sachin Jain, CA, Sheetal Ashar, CA and Isha Bansal, MBA(Fin) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views ICICI Securities Limited, expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or Funds. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly 1st Floor, or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this Akruti report. Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC, Terms & conditions and other disclosures: Andheri (East) ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) AMFI Regn. No.: ARN-0845. 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