Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 25-26, 2022

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                           Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
                                         January 25–26, 2022
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee          Patricia Zobel, Deputy Manager, System Open Market
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys-            Account
tem was held by videoconference on Tuesday, Janu-
ary 25, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday,        Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary,
January 26, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. 1                                 Board
Attendance
                                                              Matthew J. Eichner, 2 Director, Division of Reserve
    Jerome H. Powell, Chair
                                                                 Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board;
    John C. Williams, Vice Chair
                                                                 Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of
    Michelle W. Bowman
                                                                 Supervision and Regulation, Board
    Lael Brainard
    James Bullard
                                                              Daniel M. Covitz, Deputy Director, Division of
    Esther L. George
                                                                 Research and Statistics, Board; Sally Davies,
    Loretta J. Mester
                                                                 Deputy Director, Division of International
    Christopher J. Waller
                                                                 Finance, Board; Rochelle M. Edge, Deputy
                                                                 Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board;
Meredith Black, Charles L. Evans, Patrick Harker,
                                                                 Michael T. Kiley, Deputy Director, Division of
   Naureen Hassan, and Neel Kashkari, Alternate
                                                                 Financial Stability, Board
   Members of the Committee
                                                              Jon Faust and Joshua Gallin, Senior Special Advisers to
Thomas I. Barkin, Raphael W. Bostic, and Mary C.
                                                                  the Chair, Division of Board Members, Board
   Daly, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of
   Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectively
                                                              Antulio N. Bomfim, Jane E. Ihrig, Kurt F. Lewis, and
                                                                 Nitish R. Sinha, Special Advisers to the Board,
Kenneth C. Montgomery, Interim President of the
                                                                 Division of Board Members, Board
   Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
                                                              Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Division of
James A. Clouse, Secretary
                                                                  Board Members, Board
Matthew M. Luecke, Deputy Secretary
Brian J. Bonis, Assistant Secretary
                                                              Michael G. Palumbo, Senior Associate Director,
Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary
                                                                 Division of Research and Statistics, Board
Mark E. Van Der Weide, General Counsel
Michael Held, Deputy General Counsel
                                                              Stephanie E. Curcuru,2 Associate Director, Division of
Trevor A. Reeve, Economist
                                                                  International Finance, Board; Eric C. Engstrom
Stacey Tevlin, Economist
                                                                  and Christopher J. Gust, Associate Directors,
Beth Anne Wilson, Economist
                                                                  Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; Glenn
                                                                  Follette, Associate Director, Division of Research
Shaghil Ahmed, Brian M. Doyle, Carlos Garriga,
                                                                  and Statistics, Board
    Joseph W. Gruber, David E. Lebow, Ellis W.
    Tallman, Geoffrey Tootell, and William Wascher,
                                                              Erik A. Heitfield, Deputy Associate Director, Division
    Associate Economists
                                                                  of Research and Statistics, Board; Laura Lipscomb
                                                                  and Zeynep Senyuz,2 Deputy Associate Directors,
Lorie K. Logan, Manager, System Open Market
                                                                  Division of Monetary Affairs, Board
    Account

1 The Federal Open Market Committee is referenced as the      2 Attended through the discussion of principles for reducing

“FOMC” and the “Committee” in these minutes; the Board        the size of the balance sheet.
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is referenced as
the “Board” in these minutes.
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Page 2                            Federal Open Market Committee

Etienne Gagnon2 and Andrew Meldrum, Assistant             Deborah Leonard2 and Rania Perry,2 Vice Presidents,
    Directors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board           Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Mark A. Carlson, Adviser, Division of Monetary            James Dolmas, Economic Policy Adviser and Senior
   Affairs, Board                                            Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Alyssa G. Anderson and Valerie S. Hinojosa, Section       Radhika Mithal,2 Markets Officer, Federal Reserve
    Chiefs, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board;             Bank of New York
    Penelope A. Beattie, 3 Section Chief, Office of the
    Secretary, Board                                      Annual Organizational Matters 4
                                                          The agenda for this meeting reported that advices of the
Alyssa Arute, Manager, Division of Reserve Bank           election of the following members and alternate mem-
    Operations and Payment Systems, Board                 bers of the Federal Open Market Committee for a term
                                                          beginning January 25, 2022, were received and that these
Camille Bryan, Senior Project Manager, Division of        individuals executed their oaths of office.
   Monetary Affairs, Board
                                                          The elected members and alternate members were as fol-
                                                          lows:
David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of
   Monetary Affairs, Board                                John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank
                                                          of New York, with Naureen Hassan, First Vice President
Damjan Pfajfar, Mary Tian, and Randall A. Williams,       of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as alternate
   Group Managers, Division of Monetary Affairs,
                                                          Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank
   Board
                                                          of Philadelphia, as alternate
David B. Cashin, Principal Economist, Division of         Loretta J. Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank
   Research and Statistics, Board; Erin E. Ferris,        of Cleveland, with Charles L. Evans, President of the
   Kyungmin Kim, and Bernd Schlusche,2 Principal          Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as alternate
   Economists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board;       James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of
   Colin J. Hottman, Principal Economist, Division        St. Louis, with Meredith Black, Interim President of the
   of International Finance, Board                        Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as alternate
David Na,2 Senior Financial Institution and Policy        Esther L. George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank
   Analyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board           of Kansas City, with Neel Kashkari, President of the
                                                          Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, as alternate.
Isaiah C. Ahn, Information Management Analyst,            By unanimous vote, the following officers of the Com-
     Division of Monetary Affairs, Board                  mittee were selected to serve until the selection of their
                                                          successors at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the
David Altig, Kartik B. Athreya, and Sylvain Leduc,        Committee in 2023:
   Executive Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks
   of Atlanta, Richmond, and San Francisco,               Jerome H. Powell             Chair
   respectively                                           John C. Williams             Vice Chair
                                                          James A. Clouse              Secretary
Anne Baum, John Clark,2 Spencer Krane, Paolo A.           Matthew M. Luecke            Deputy Secretary
   Pesenti, Julie Ann Remache,2 Keith Sill, and Mark      Brian J. Bonis               Assistant Secretary
   L.J. Wright, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal           Michelle A. Smith            Assistant Secretary
   Reserve Banks of New York, New York, Chicago,          Mark E. Van Der Weide        General Counsel
   New York, New York, Philadelphia, and                  Michael Held                 Deputy General Counsel
   Minneapolis, respectively                              Richard M. Ashton            Assistant General Counsel

3   Attended Tuesday’s session only.                      4  Committee organizational documents are available at
                                                          www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/rules_authoriza-
                                                          tions.htm.
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                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022               Page 3

Trevor Reeve                 Economist                         A. To buy or sell in the open market securities that
Stacey Tevlin                Economist                         are direct obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to prin-
Beth Anne Wilson             Economist                         cipal and interest by, the United States, and securities
                                                               that are direct obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to
Shaghil Ahmed                                                  principal and interest by, any agency of the United
Brian M. Doyle                                                 States, that are eligible for purchase or sale under Sec-
Carlos Garriga                                                 tion 14(b) of the Federal Reserve Act (“Eligible Secu-
Joseph W. Gruber                                               rities”) for the System Open Market Account
Beverly Hirtle                                                 (“SOMA”):
David E. Lebow                                                    i.    As an outright operation with securities dealers
Ellis W. Tallman                                                  and foreign and international accounts maintained
Geoffrey Tootell                                                  at the Selected Bank: on a same-day or deferred de-
William Wascher              Associate Economists                 livery basis (including such transactions as are com-
                                                                  monly referred to as dollar rolls and coupon swaps)
By unanimous vote, the Committee selected the Federal
                                                                  at market prices; or
Reserve Bank of New York to execute transactions for
                                                                  ii. As a temporary operation: on a same-day or
the System Open Market Account (SOMA).
                                                                  deferred delivery basis, to purchase such Eligible Se-
By unanimous vote, the Committee selected Lorie K.                curities subject to an agreement to resell (“repo
Logan and Patricia Zobel to serve at the pleasure of the          transactions”) or to sell such Eligible Securities sub-
Committee as manager and deputy manager of the                    ject to an agreement to repurchase (“reverse repo
SOMA, respectively, on the understanding that these se-           transactions”) for a term of 65 business days or less,
lections were subject to being satisfactory to the Federal        at rates that, unless otherwise authorized by the
Reserve Bank of New York.                                         Committee, are determined by competitive bidding,
                                                                  after applying reasonable limitations on the volume
    Secretary’s note: The Federal Reserve Bank of
                                                                  of agreements with individual counterparties;
    New York subsequently sent advice that the
                                                               B. To allow Eligible Securities in the SOMA to ma-
    manager and deputy manager selections indi-
                                                               ture without replacement;
    cated previously were satisfactory.
                                                               C. To exchange, at market prices, in connection
By unanimous vote, the Committee voted to reaffirm             with a Treasury auction, maturing Eligible Securities in
without revision the Authorization for Domestic Open           the SOMA with the Treasury, in the case of Eligible
Market Operations, as shown below. By unanimous                Securities that are direct obligations of the United
vote, the Committee voted to reaffirm without revision         States or that are fully guaranteed as to principal and
the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations and          interest by the United States; and
to amend the Foreign Currency Directive to remove ref-         D. To exchange, at market prices, maturing Eligible
erences to the temporary dollar liquidity swap arrange-        Securities in the SOMA with an agency of the United
ments with foreign central banks, as shown below. The          States, in the case of Eligible Securities that are direct
Guidelines for the Conduct of System Open Market Op-           obligations of that agency or that are fully guaranteed
erations in Federal-Agency Issues remained suspended.          as to principal and interest by that agency.
AUTHORIZATION FOR DOMESTIC OPEN
MARKET OPERATIONS                                            SECURITIES LENDING
(As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022)
                                                             2. In order to ensure the effective conduct of open
OPEN MARKET TRANSACTIONS                                     market operations, the Committee authorizes the Se-
                                                             lected Bank to operate a program to lend Eligible Secu-
1. The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Com-              rities held in the SOMA to dealers on an overnight basis
mittee”) authorizes and directs the Federal Reserve Bank     (except that the Selected Bank may lend Eligible Securi-
selected by the Committee to execute open market trans-      ties for longer than an overnight term to accommodate
actions (the “Selected Bank”), to the extent necessary to    weekend, holiday, and similar trading conventions).
carry out the most recent domestic policy directive             A. Such securities lending must be:
adopted by the Committee:                                         i.    At rates determined by competitive bidding;
                                                                  ii. At a minimum lending fee consistent with the
                                                                  objectives of the program;
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    iii. Subject to reasonable limitations on the total              ii. Undertake repo transactions in Eligible Securi-
    amount of a specific issue of Eligible Securities that           ties with Foreign Accounts; and
    may be auctioned; and                                         B. Any Federal Reserve Bank that maintains Cus-
    iv. Subject to reasonable limitations on the                  tomer Accounts, for any such Customer Account,
    amount of Eligible Securities that each borrower              when appropriate and subject to all other necessary
    may borrow.                                                   authorization and approvals, to:
  B. The Selected Bank may:                                          i.    Undertake repo transactions in Eligible Securi-
    i.    Reject bids that, as determined in its sole dis-           ties with dealers with a corresponding reverse repo
    cretion, could facilitate a bidder’s ability to control a        transaction in such Eligible Securities with the Cus-
    single issue;                                                    tomer Accounts; and
    ii. Accept Treasury securities or cash as collateral             ii. Undertake intra-day repo transactions in Eligi-
    for any loan of securities authorized in this para-              ble Securities with Foreign Accounts.
    graph 2; and                                                Transactions undertaken with Customer Accounts un-
    iii. Accept agency securities as collateral only for a      der the provisions of this paragraph 4 may provide for a
    loan of agency securities authorized in this para-          service fee when appropriate. Transactions undertaken
    graph 2.                                                    with Customer Accounts are also subject to the authori-
                                                                zation or approval of other entities, including the Board
OPERATIONAL READINESS TESTING                                   of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and, when
                                                                involving accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve
3. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to                Bank as fiscal agent of the United States, the United
undertake transactions of the type described in para-           States Department of the Treasury.
graphs 1 and 2 from time to time for the purpose of test-
ing operational readiness, subject to the following limi-       ADDITIONAL MATTERS
tations:
  A. All transactions authorized in this paragraph 3            5. The Committee authorizes the Chair of the Com-
  shall be conducted with prior notice to the Commit-           mittee, in fostering the Committee’s objectives during
  tee;                                                          any period between meetings of the Committee, to in-
  B. The aggregate par value of the transactions au-            struct the Selected Bank to act on behalf of the Commit-
  thorized in this paragraph 3 that are of the type de-         tee to:
  scribed in paragraph 1.A.i, 1.B, 1.C and 1.D shall not           A. Adjust somewhat in exceptional circumstances
  exceed $5 billion per calendar year; and                         the stance of monetary policy and to take actions that
  C. The outstanding amount of the transactions de-                may result in material changes in the composition and
  scribed in paragraphs 1.A.ii and 2 shall not exceed              size of the assets in the SOMA; or
  $5 billion at any given time.                                    B. Undertake transactions with respect to Eligible
                                                                   Securities in order to appropriately address temporary
TRANSACTIONS WITH CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS                                disruptions of an operational or highly unusual nature
                                                                   in U.S. dollar funding markets.
4. In order to ensure the effective conduct of open             Any such adjustment described in subparagraph A of
market operations, while assisting in the provision of          this paragraph 5 shall be made in the context of the
short-term investments or other authorized services for         Committee’s discussion and decision about the stance of
foreign central bank and international accounts main-           policy at its most recent meeting and the Committee’s
tained at a Federal Reserve Bank (the “Foreign Ac-              long-run objectives to foster maximum employment and
counts”) and accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve           price stability, and shall be based on economic, financial,
Bank as fiscal agent of the United States pursuant to sec-      and monetary developments since the most recent meet-
tion 15 of the Federal Reserve Act (together with the           ing of the Committee. The Chair, whenever feasible, will
Foreign Accounts, the “Customer Accounts”), the Com-            consult with the Committee before making any instruc-
mittee authorizes the following when undertaken on              tion under this paragraph 5.
terms comparable to those available in the open market:
   A. The Selected Bank, for the SOMA, to:
     i.   Undertake reverse repo transactions in Eligible
     Securities held in the SOMA with the Customer Ac-
     counts for a term of 65 business days or less; and
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                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022               Page 5

AUTHORIZATION FOR FOREIGN CURRENCY                           STANDALONE SPOT AND FORWARD TRANS-
OPERATIONS                                                   ACTIONS
(As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022)
                                                             3. For any operation that involves standalone spot or
IN GENERAL
                                                             forward transactions in foreign currencies:
                                                               A. Approval of such operation is required as fol-
1. The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Com-
                                                               lows:
mittee”) authorizes the Federal Reserve Bank selected by
                                                                 i.    The Committee must direct the Selected Bank
the Committee (the “Selected Bank”) to execute open
                                                                 in advance to execute the operation if it would result
market transactions for the System Open Market Ac-
                                                                 in the overall volume of standalone spot and for-
count as provided in this Authorization, to the extent
                                                                 ward transactions in foreign currencies, as defined
necessary to carry out any foreign currency directive of
                                                                 in paragraph 3.C of this Authorization, exceeding
the Committee:
                                                                 $5 billion since the close of the most recent regular
  A. To purchase and sell foreign currencies (also
                                                                 meeting of the Committee. The Foreign Currency
  known as cable transfers) at home and abroad in the
                                                                 Subcommittee (the “Subcommittee”) must direct
  open market, including with the United States Treas-
                                                                 the Selected Bank in advance to execute the opera-
  ury, with foreign monetary authorities, with the Bank
                                                                 tion if the Subcommittee believes that consultation
  for International Settlements, and with other entities
                                                                 with the Committee is not feasible in the time avail-
  in the open market. This authorization to purchase
                                                                 able.
  and sell foreign currencies encompasses purchases and
                                                                 ii. The Committee authorizes the Subcommittee
  sales through standalone spot or forward transactions
                                                                 to direct the Selected Bank in advance to execute the
  and through foreign exchange swap transactions. For
                                                                 operation if it would result in the overall volume of
  purposes of this Authorization, foreign exchange
                                                                 standalone spot and forward transactions in foreign
  swap transactions are: swap transactions with the
                                                                 currencies, as defined in paragraph 3.C of this Au-
  United States Treasury (also known as warehousing
                                                                 thorization, totaling $5 billion or less since the close
  transactions), swap transactions with other central
                                                                 of the most recent regular meeting of the Commit-
  banks under reciprocal currency arrangements, swap
                                                                 tee.
  transactions with other central banks understanding
                                                               B. Such an operation also shall be:
  dollar liquidity and foreign currency liquidity swap ar-
                                                                 i.    Generally directed at countering disorderly
  rangements, and swap transactions with other entities
                                                                 market conditions; or
  in the open market.
                                                                 ii. Undertaken to adjust System balances in light
  B. To hold balances of, and to have outstanding for-
                                                                 of probable future needs for currencies; or
  ward contracts to receive or to deliver, foreign curren-
                                                                 iii. Conducted for such other purposes as may be
  cies.
                                                                 determined by the Committee.
2. All transactions in foreign currencies undertaken
                                                               C. For purposes of this Authorization, the overall
pursuant to paragraph 1 above shall, unless otherwise
                                                               volume of standalone spot and forward transactions
authorized by the Committee, be conducted:
                                                               in foreign currencies is defined as the sum (disregard-
  A. In a manner consistent with the obligations re-
                                                               ing signs) of the dollar values of individual foreign cur-
  garding exchange arrangements under Article IV of
                                                               rencies purchased and sold, valued at the time of the
  the Articles of Agreement of the International Mone-
                                                               transaction.
  tary Fund (IMF).1
  B. In close and continuous cooperation and consul-
                                                             WAREHOUSING
  tation, as appropriate, with the United States Treasury.
  C. In consultation, as appropriate, with foreign
                                                             4. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank, with
  monetary authorities, foreign central banks, and inter-
                                                             the prior approval of the Subcommittee and at the re-
  national monetary institutions.
                                                             quest of the United States Treasury, to conduct swap
  D. At prevailing market rates.
                                                             transactions with the United States Exchange Stabiliza-
                                                             tion Fund established by section 10 of the Gold Reserve
                                                             Act of 1934 under agreements in which the Selected
                                                             Bank purchases foreign currencies from the Exchange
                                                             Stabilization Fund and the Exchange Stabilization Fund
                                                             repurchases the foreign currencies from the Selected
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Page 6                            Federal Open Market Committee

Bank at a later date (such purchases and sales also known        any changes in terms, and the terms shall be con-
as warehousing).                                                 sistent with principles discussed with and guidance
                                                                 provided by the Committee.
RECIPROCAL CURRENCY ARRANGEMENTS,
AND STANDING DOLLAR AND FOREIGN CUR-                         OTHER OPERATIONS IN FOREIGN CURREN-
RENCY LIQUIDITY SWAPS                                        CIES

5. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to             6. Any other operations in foreign currencies for
maintain reciprocal currency arrangements established        which governance is not otherwise specified in this Au-
under the North American Framework Agreement,                thorization (such as foreign exchange swap transactions
standing dollar liquidity swap arrangements, temporary       with private-sector counterparties) must be authorized
dollar liquidity swap arrangements, and standing foreign     and directed in advance by the Committee.
currency liquidity swap arrangements as provided in this
Authorization and to the extent necessary to carry out       FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDINGS
any foreign currency directive of the Committee.
  A. For reciprocal currency arrangements all draw-          7. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to
  ings must be approved in advance by the Committee          hold foreign currencies for the System Open Market Ac-
  (or by the Subcommittee, if the Subcommittee be-           count in accounts maintained at foreign central banks,
  lieves that consultation with the Committee is not fea-    the Bank for International Settlements, and such other
  sible in the time available).                              foreign institutions as approved by the Board of Gover-
  B. For standing and temporary dollar liquidity swap        nors under Section 214.5 of Regulation N, to the extent
  arrangements all drawings must be approved in ad-          necessary to carry out any foreign currency directive of
  vance by the Chair. The Chair may approve a schedule       the Committee.
  of potential drawings, and may delegate to the man-          A. The Selected Bank shall manage all holdings of
  ager, System Open Market Account, the authority to           foreign currencies for the System Open Market Ac-
  approve individual drawings that occur according to          count:
  the schedule approved by the Chair.                            i.    Primarily, to ensure sufficient liquidity to ena-
  C. For standing foreign currency liquidity swap ar-            ble the Selected Bank to conduct foreign currency
  rangements all drawings must be approved in advance            operations as directed by the Committee;
  by the Committee (or by the Subcommittee, if the               ii. Secondarily, to maintain a high degree of
  Subcommittee believes that consultation with the               safety;
  Committee is not feasible in the time available).              iii. Subject to paragraphs 7.A.i and 7.A.ii, to pro-
  D. Operations involving standing and temporary                 vide the highest rate of return possible in each cur-
  dollar liquidity swap arrangements and standing for-           rency; and
  eign currency liquidity swap arrangements shall gener-         iv. To achieve such other objectives as may be au-
  ally be directed at countering strains in financial mar-       thorized by the Committee.
  kets in the United States or abroad, or reducing the         B. The Selected Bank may manage such foreign cur-
  risk that they could emerge, so as to mitigate their ef-     rency holdings by:
  fects on economic and financial conditions in the              i.    Purchasing and selling obligations of, or fully
  United States.                                                 guaranteed as to principal and interest by, a foreign
  E. For reciprocal currency arrangements, standing              government or agency thereof (“Permitted Foreign
  and temporary dollar liquidity swap arrangements, and          Securities”) through outright purchases and sales;
  standing foreign currency liquidity swap arrangements:         ii. Purchasing Permitted Foreign Securities under
     i.    All arrangements are subject to annual review         agreements for repurchase of such Permitted For-
     and approval by the Committee;                              eign Securities and selling such securities under
     ii.   Any new arrangements must be approved by              agreements for the resale of such securities; and
     the Committee; and                                          iii. Managing balances in various time and other
     iii. Any changes in the terms of existing arrange-          deposit accounts at foreign institutions approved by
     ments must be approved in advance by the Chair.             the Board of Governors under Regulation N.
     The Chair shall keep the Committee informed of            C. The Subcommittee, in consultation with the
                                                               Committee, may provide additional instructions to the
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                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022               Page 7

     Selected Bank regarding holdings of foreign curren-     Chair, whenever feasible, will consult with the Commit-
     cies.                                                   tee before making any instruction under this paragraph.
                                                             __________________________
ADDITIONAL MATTERS                                           1 In general, as specified in Article IV, each member of the
                                                             IMF undertakes to collaborate with the IMF and other
8.     The Committee authorizes the Chair:                   members to assure orderly exchange arrangements and to
   A. With the prior approval of the Committee, to en-       promote a stable system of exchange rates. These obligations
                                                             include seeking to direct the member’s economic and financial
   ter into any needed agreement or understanding with
                                                             policies toward the objective of fostering orderly economic
   the Secretary of the United States Treasury about the     growth with reasonable price stability. These obligations also
   division of responsibility for foreign currency opera-    include avoiding manipulating exchange rates or the
   tions between the System and the United States Treas-     international monetary system in such a way that would
   ury;                                                      impede effective balance of payments adjustment or to give
   B. To advise the Secretary of the United States           an unfair competitive advantage over other members.
   Treasury concerning System foreign currency opera-
   tions, and to consult with the Secretary on policy mat-   FOREIGN CURRENCY DIRECTIVE
   ters relating to foreign currency operations;             (As amended effective January 25, 2022)
   C. To designate Federal Reserve System persons au-
                                                             1. The Committee directs the Federal Reserve Bank
   thorized to communicate with the United States
                                                             selected by the Committee (the “Selected Bank”) to ex-
   Treasury concerning System Open Market Account
                                                             ecute open market transactions, for the System Open
   foreign currency operations; and
                                                             Market Account, in accordance with the provisions of
   D. From time to time, to transmit appropriate re-
                                                             the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations (the
   ports and information to the National Advisory Coun-
                                                             “Authorization”) and subject to the limits in this Di-
   cil on International Monetary and Financial Policies.
                                                             rective.
9. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to
                                                             2. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to exe-
undertake transactions of the type described in this Au-
                                                             cute warehousing transactions, if so requested by the
thorization, and foreign exchange and investment
                                                             United States Treasury and if approved by the Foreign
transactions that it may be otherwise authorized to
                                                             Currency Subcommittee (the “Subcommittee”), subject
undertake, from time to time for the purpose of testing
                                                             to the limitation that the outstanding balance of United
operational readiness. The aggregate amount of such
                                                             States dollars provided to the United States Treasury as
transactions shall not exceed $2.5 billion per calendar
                                                             a result of these transactions not at any time exceed
year. These transactions shall be conducted with prior
                                                             $5 billion.
notice to the Committee.
                                                             3. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to main-
10. All Federal Reserve banks shall participate in the
                                                             tain, for the System Open Market Account:
foreign currency operations for System Open Market
                                                                A. Reciprocal currency arrangements with the fol-
Account in accordance with paragraph 3G(1) of the
                                                                lowing foreign central banks:
Board of Governors’ Statement of Procedure with Re-
spect to Foreign Relationships of Federal Reserve Banks
                                                                 Foreign central bank    Maximum amount
dated January 1, 1944.
                                                                                         (millions of dollars
11. Any authority of the Subcommittee pursuant to
                                                                                         or equivalent)
this Authorization may be exercised by the Chair if the
                                                                 Bank of Canada                   2,000
Chair believes that consultation with the Subcommittee
                                                                 Bank of Mexico                   3,000
is not feasible in the time available. The Chair shall
promptly report to the Subcommittee any action ap-
                                                                 B. Standing dollar liquidity swap arrangements with
proved by the Chair pursuant to this paragraph.
                                                                 the following foreign central banks:
12. The Committee authorizes the Chair, in excep-
tional circumstances where it would not be feasible to
                                                                 Bank of Canada
convene the Committee, to foster the Committee’s ob-
                                                                 Bank of England
jectives by instructing the Selected Bank to engage in
                                                                 Bank of Japan
foreign currency operations not otherwise authorized
                                                                 European Central Bank
pursuant to this Authorization. Any such action shall be
                                                                 Swiss National Bank
made in the context of the Committee’s discussion and
decisions regarding foreign currency operations. The
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Page 8                            Federal Open Market Committee

  C. Standing foreign currency liquidity swap arrange-       (iii) be conducted with a minimum bid rate set at a level
  ments with the following foreign central banks:            directed by the Committee; (iv) be offered on an over-
                                                             night basis (except that the Open Market Desk at the
  Bank of Canada                                             Selected Bank may extend the term for longer than an
  Bank of England                                            overnight term to accommodate weekend, holiday, and
  Bank of Japan                                              similar trading conventions); and (v) be subject to an ag-
  European Central Bank                                      gregate operation limit of $500 billion. The aggregate
  Swiss National Bank                                        operation limit can be temporarily increased at the dis-
                                                             cretion of the Chair. These operations shall be con-
4. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to hold           ducted by the Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank
and to invest foreign currencies in the portfolio in ac-     until otherwise directed by the Committee.
cordance with the provisions of paragraph 7 of the Au-
                                                             STANDING FIMA REPURCHASE AGREEMENT
thorization.
                                                             RESOLUTION
5. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to report
                                                             (As amended effective January 25, 2022)
to the Committee, at each regular meeting of the Com-
mittee, on transactions undertaken pursuant to para-         The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Commit-
graphs 1 and 6 of the Authorization. The Selected Bank       tee”) authorizes and directs the Open Market Desk at
is also directed to provide quarterly reports to the Com-    the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the “Selected
mittee regarding the management of the foreign cur-          Bank”), for the System Open Market Account
rency holdings pursuant to paragraph 7 of the Authori-       (“SOMA”), to offer to purchase U.S. Treasury securities
zation.                                                      subject to an agreement to resell (“repurchase agreement
6. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to con-           transactions”) with foreign central bank and interna-
duct testing of transactions for the purpose of opera-       tional accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve Bank
tional readiness in accordance with the provisions of        (the “Foreign Accounts”). The repurchase agreement
paragraph 9 of the Authorization.                            transactions hereby authorized and directed shall (i) in-
   The Committee voted unanimously to approve with           clude only U.S. Treasury securities; (ii) be conducted
minor revisions the Standing Repurchase Agreement Fa-        with Foreign Accounts approved in advance by the For-
cility Resolution, as shown below. All but one member        eign Currency Subcommittee (the ”Subcommittee”); (iii)
of the Committee voted to approve with minor revisions       be conducted at an offering rate equal to the minimum
the Standing FIMA Repurchase Agreement Resolution.           bid rate for the standing repurchase agreement facility
Governor Bowman abstained from the vote on the               unless the Subcommittee establishes a different offering
Standing FIMA Repurchase Agreement Resolution.               rate; (iv) be offered on an overnight basis (except that
The resolutions were modified to remove references to        the Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank may extend
a specific facility rate to allow for normal adjustment in   the term for longer than an overnight term to accommo-
the facility rates when the Committee makes changes to       date weekend, holiday, and similar trading conventions);
the target range for the federal funds rate.                 and (v) be subject to a per-counterparty limit of $60 bil-
                                                             lion per day. The Subcommittee may approve changes
STANDING REPURCHASE AGREEMENT FACIL-
                                                             in the offering rate, the maturity of the transactions, eli-
ITY RESOLUTION
                                                             gible Foreign Accounts counterparties (either by ap-
(As amended effective January 25, 2022)
                                                             proving or removing account access), and the counter-
The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Commit-              party limit; and the Subcommittee shall keep the Com-
tee”) authorizes and directs the Open Market Desk at         mittee informed of any such changes. These transac-
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the “Selected          tions shall be undertaken by the Open Market Desk at
Bank”), for the System Open Market Account                   the Selected Bank until otherwise directed by the Com-
(“SOMA”), to conduct operations in which it offers to        mittee. The Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank will
purchase securities, subject to an agreement to resell       also report at least annually to the Committee on facility
(“repurchase agreement transactions”). The repurchase        usage and the list of approved account holders.
agreement transactions hereby authorized and directed
                                                             Regarding the tough and comprehensive ethics rules for
shall (i) include only U.S. Treasury securities, agency
                                                             senior officials that were announced in October, the
debt securities, and agency mortgage-backed securities;
                                                             Chair indicated that staff were working through com-
(ii) be conducted as open market operations with pri-
                                                             ments received from policymakers and were aiming to
mary dealers and depository institutions as participants;
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022               Page 9

circulate a new draft soon. Noting the urgency in bring-      that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor mar-
ing the new policy to completion, the Chair proposed          ket. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to spec-
that the Committee vote on a final draft as soon in the       ify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s
intermeeting period as possible.                              policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the
                                                              shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rec-
In the Committee’s annual reconsideration of the State-
                                                              ognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain
ment on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strat-
                                                              and subject to revision. The Committee considers a
egy, all participants supported the statement as written,
                                                              wide range of indicators in making these assessments.
and the Committee voted unanimously to reaffirm with-
                                                                 The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily de-
out revision.
                                                              termined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee
In discussing the statement, the Chair noted that, con-       has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation.
sistent with previous communications, a formal frame-         The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at
work review would commence in 2024 and conclude in            the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change
2025. That timing would allow perspectives on recent          in the price index for personal consumption expendi-
events to inform considerations of potential revisions to     tures, is most consistent over the longer run with the
the framework.                                                Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. The Committee
                                                              judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are
STATEMENT ON LONGER-RUN GOALS AND
                                                              well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and mod-
MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY
(As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022)                    erate long-term interest rates and enhance the Commit-
                                                              tee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the
   The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is                face of significant economic disturbances. In order to
firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from     anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level,
the Congress of promoting maximum employment, sta-            the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages
ble prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The        2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following
Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy deci-          periods when inflation has been running persistently be-
sions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity      low 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely
facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households        aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for
and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncer-         some time.
tainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy,          Monetary policy actions tend to influence economic
and enhances transparency and accountability, which are       activity, employment, and prices with a lag. In setting
essential in a democratic society.                            monetary policy, the Committee seeks over time to mit-
   Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates        igate shortfalls of employment from the Committee’s as-
fluctuate over time in response to economic and finan-        sessment of its maximum level and deviations of infla-
cial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important         tion from its longer-run goal. Moreover, sustainably
role in stabilizing the economy in response to these dis-     achieving maximum employment and price stability de-
turbances. The Committee’s primary means of adjusting         pends on a stable financial system. Therefore, the Com-
the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the       mittee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its
target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee        medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the bal-
judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent    ance of risks, including risks to the financial system that
with maximum employment and price stability over the          could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
longer run has declined relative to its historical average.      The Committee’s employment and inflation objectives
Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be con-        are generally complementary. However, under circum-
strained by its effective lower bound more frequently         stances in which the Committee judges that the objec-
than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of in-       tives are not complementary, it takes into account the
terest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee      employment shortfalls and inflation deviations and the
judges that downward risks to employment and inflation        potentially different time horizons over which employ-
have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its          ment and inflation are projected to return to levels
full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment         judged consistent with its mandate.
and price stability goals.                                       The Committee intends to review these principles and
   The maximum level of employment is a broad-based           to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organi-
and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and        zational meeting each January, and to undertake roughly
changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Page 10                           Federal Open Market Committee

every five years a thorough public review of its monetary      with much of the increase following the release of the
policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.           minutes for the December FOMC meeting. In addition,
                                                               agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads wid-
Financial Developments and Open Market                         ened notably after having been stable at low levels for
Operations                                                     the past year, reportedly driven by expectations for an
The manager turned first to a review of domestic finan-        earlier and faster runoff of agency MBS than had been
cial market developments over the intermeeting period.         expected.
Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by higher real
                                                               The manager turned next to a discussion of international
yields. Expectations for tighter monetary policy ahead,
                                                               financial market developments. Sovereign yields in-
as well as an easing of COVID-related concerns, were
                                                               creased across advanced foreign economies (AFEs), re-
cited as contributing to the increase in yields. The
                                                               portedly driven by receding concerns about the Omi-
S&P 500 index declined around 5 percent, with sharp
                                                               cron variant, elevated inflation readings, and, relatedly,
moves toward the end of the period, reportedly
                                                               expectations that central banks would remove policy ac-
prompted by concerns about the implications of a
                                                               commodation sooner than had been expected. Several
tighter path of monetary policy and rising geopolitical
                                                               central banks concluded their net asset purchases late
risks.
                                                               last year, and more were expected to do so this year. On
Regarding the monetary policy outlook, with data show-         the outlook for policy rates, several central banks had
ing continuing tightening of labor market conditions and       either already increased their policy rates or were ex-
elevated inflationary pressures, policymaker communi-          pected to do so later this year.
cations were perceived as pointing to an earlier and
                                                               The manager provided an update on issues related to
faster removal of accommodation than market partici-
                                                               monetary policy implementation. Reductions in the
pants had previously expected. Against this backdrop,
                                                               pace of the Committee’s net asset purchases had pro-
respondents to the Open Market Desk’s surveys of pri-
                                                               ceeded smoothly to date and functioning in Treasury
mary dealers and market participants almost uniformly
                                                               and agency MBS markets remained stable. Regarding
projected that the Federal Reserve’s net asset purchases
                                                               the potential for the Committee to reduce System Open
would end by mid-March. The median survey projec-
                                                               Market Account (SOMA) holdings in the future, market
tion for the commencement of balance sheet runoff
                                                               participants generally anticipated that SOMA redemp-
shifted into the third quarter of this year, roughly a year
                                                               tions could proceed smoothly at a somewhat faster pace
and a half sooner than in the December surveys. Most
                                                               than during the previous period of balance sheet reduc-
survey respondents also expected the portfolio to de-
                                                               tion from 2017 to 2019. However, some also noted that
cline at a significantly faster pace than they did in De-
                                                               SOMA redemptions would require significant adjust-
cember.
                                                               ments to private-sector balance sheets, as investors ab-
Expectations for the path of the federal funds rate            sorb the net increase in Treasury and agency MBS issu-
shifted toward earlier rate increases, and interest rate fu-   ance to the private sector and money markets transition
tures priced in an increase in the target range for the fed-   to lower levels of liquidity, and that these adjustments
eral funds rate at the March FOMC meeting. On aver-            could take some time.
age, respondents to the Desk surveys assigned a roughly
                                                               The manager discussed expectations for the evolution of
70 percent probability to an increase in the target range
                                                               the Federal Reserve’s administered rates in connection
in March. The expected path of the federal funds rate in
                                                               with a potential future change in the target range for the
the Desk surveys and derived from interest rate futures
                                                               federal funds rate. The Desk survey responses suggested
also steepened over the period. The median survey pro-
                                                               expectations for administered rates to be raised by the
jection for the most likely level of the target range at the
                                                               same increment as the target range for the federal funds
end of 2024 was about 2 percent, similar to December.
                                                               rate. The manager noted that the current setting of ad-
Nonetheless, survey respondents attached significant
                                                               ministered rates relative to the target range had been
probability to outcomes in which the target range moved
                                                               working well and anticipated that it could continue to
up more than indicated by the projected modal path.
                                                               support effective policy implementation following any
Changing views about the likely path of the Federal Re-        increase in the target range in coming months, although
serve’s balance sheet following the release of the Decem-      adjustments could be warranted over time.
ber FOMC minutes seemed to affect longer-term yields.
                                                               By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s
Far forward real yields moved higher over the period,
                                                               domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. No
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022              Page 11

intervention operations occurred in foreign currencies        tain and probably would remain so. Consequently, mar-
for the System’s account during the intermeeting period.      ket conditions would have to be monitored closely to
                                                              determine the appropriate longer-run level of reserves
Principles for Reducing the Size of the Balance
                                                              and the size of the balance sheet.
Sheet
Participants continued their discussion of topics associ-     Participants agreed that the Committee should reduce
ated with potential adjustments in the Committee’s pol-       the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings over time in a
icy tools that may be appropriate to support the achieve-     predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts
ment of sustained strong labor market conditions and a        reinvested of principal payments received from securi-
return of inflation to levels consistent with the Commit-     ties held in the SOMA. They also agreed that the SOMA
tee’s longer-run 2 percent objective under a wide range       should hold primarily Treasury securities in the longer
of circumstances. At this meeting, participants dis-          run. Regarding these two principles, many participants
cussed high-level principles that could be released to the    commented that sales of agency MBS or reinvesting
public to describe the Committee’s approach for reduc-        some portion of principal payments received from
ing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. They     agency MBS into Treasury securities may be appropriate
agreed that the principles would address, at a high level,    at some point in the future to enable suitable progress
the sequence of adjustments in the interest rate and bal-     toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composition con-
ance sheet tools to reduce policy accommodation, the          sisting primarily of Treasury securities.
Committee’s approach to balance sheet runoff, and its
                                                              Participants agreed that it was appropriate at this time
intentions for the longer-run size and composition of the
                                                              for the Committee to publish its high-level principles for
balance sheet. The participants’ discussion was pre-
                                                              reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
ceded by a staff presentation that reviewed key consid-
                                                              They also agreed that it was important for the Commit-
erations raised by participants at the December FOMC
                                                              tee to retain the flexibility to adjust any of the details of
meeting and examined how the proposed set of princi-
                                                              its approach in light of changing economic and financial
ples, which reflected those considerations, compared
                                                              conditions. Participants noted that the principles would
with the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans is-
                                                              serve as an important guide in future deliberations on
sued in 2014.
                                                              balance sheet reduction. While no decisions regarding
In their discussion, participants reaffirmed that changes     specific details for reducing the size of the balance sheet
in the target range for the federal funds rate are the Com-   were made at this meeting, participants agreed to con-
mittee’s primary means for adjusting the stance of mon-       tinue their discussions at upcoming meetings.
etary policy, as noted in the Committee’s Statement on
                                                              Following the conclusion of the discussion, all partici-
Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. Par-
                                                              pants supported the proposed principles for reducing
ticipants judged that the timing and pace of balance
                                                              the size of the balance sheet. The Committee voted
sheet reduction would be determined so as to promote
                                                              unanimously to adopt the Principles for Reducing the
the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-sta-
                                                              Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, as shown
bility goals and that it would be appropriate to begin the
                                                              below.
process of reducing the size of the balance sheet after
the process of increasing the target range for the federal    PRINCIPLES FOR REDUCING THE SIZE OF
funds rate has begun. While participants agreed that de-      THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S BALANCE SHEET
tails on the timing and pace of balance sheet runoff          (As adopted effective January 25, 2022)
would be determined at upcoming meetings, participants
generally noted that current economic and financial con-      The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is
ditions would likely warrant a faster pace of balance         appropriate at this time to provide information regard-
sheet runoff than during the period of balance sheet re-      ing its planned approach for significantly reducing the
duction from 2017 to 2019. Participants observed that,        size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. All partici-
in light of the current high level of the Federal Reserve’s   pants agreed on the following elements:
securities holdings, a significant reduction in the size of
the balance sheet would likely be appropriate. Partici-           •    The Committee views changes in the target
pants noted that the level of securities holdings con-                 range for the federal funds rate as its pri-
sistent with implementing monetary policy efficiently                  mary means of adjusting the stance of mon-
and effectively in an ample reserves regime was uncer-                 etary policy.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
Page 12                           Federal Open Market Committee

    •   The Committee will determine the timing             measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Sur-
        and pace of reducing the size of the Federal        vey, moved down in November but remained well above
        Reserve's balance sheet so as to promote its        pre-pandemic levels; the quits rate was also elevated.
        maximum employment and price stability              Weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls, constructed
        goals. The Committee expects that reduc-            by the Board’s staff using data provided by the payroll
        ing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance       processor ADP that were available through the first half
        sheet will commence after the process of in-        of January, pointed to a slower pace of private employ-
        creasing the target range for the federal           ment gains relative to December. Average hourly earn-
        funds rate has begun.                               ings rose at an annual rate of 6.2 percent over the last
                                                            three months of the year; although wage increases were
    •   The Committee intends to reduce the Fed-            widespread across industries, they were particularly no-
        eral Reserve's securities holdings over time        table in the leisure and hospitality sector as well as the
        in a predictable manner primarily by adjust-        transportation and warehousing sector.
        ing the amounts reinvested of principal pay-
        ments received from securities held in the          Inflation readings remained high, and various indicators
        System Open Market Account (SOMA).                  suggested that inflationary pressures had broadened
                                                            over the second half of 2021. Total PCE price inflation
    •   Over time, the Committee intends to main-           was 5.7 percent over the 12 months ending in Novem-
        tain securities holdings in amounts needed          ber, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes
        to implement monetary policy efficiently            changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer
        and effectively in its ample reserves regime.       food prices, was 4.7 percent over the same period. The
    •   In the longer run, the Committee intends to         trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation con-
        hold primarily Treasury securities in the           structed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was
        SOMA, thereby minimizing the effect of              2.8 percent in November, 1 percentage point higher
        Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation          than its year-earlier rate of increase. In December, the
        of credit across sectors of the economy.            12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was
                                                            7.0 percent, while core CPI inflation was 5.5 percent
    •   The Committee is prepared to adjust any of          over the same period. The staff’s common inflation ex-
        the details of its approach to reducing the         pectations index, which combines information from
        size of the balance sheet in light of eco-          many indicators of inflation expectations and inflation
        nomic and financial developments.                   compensation, had largely leveled off over the fall and
Staff Review of the Economic Situation                      was close to its 2014 average.
The information available at the time of the January 25–    Real PCE was unchanged in November, and available
26 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic prod-    indicators—including the components of the nominal
uct (GDP) growth had picked up in the fourth quarter        retail sales data used to estimate PCE—pointed to a de-
after slowing in the third quarter. Labor market condi-     cline in December, possibly reflecting the sharp rise in
tions improved further in December, and indicators of       COVID-19 cases in the second half of that month as
labor compensation continued to show robust increases.      well as some holiday sales having been pulled forward to
Consumer price inflation through November—as meas-          earlier months. Housing demand remained strong, and
ured by the 12-month percentage change in the price in-     available indicators suggested that residential investment
dex for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—re-         increased in the fourth quarter. However, shortages of
mained elevated.                                            construction materials, buildable lots, and other inputs
Total nonfarm payroll employment posted a moderate          continued to weigh on activity in this sector.
gain in December. The unemployment rate declined            Business fixed investment appeared to post only a small
from 4.2 percent in November to 3.9 percent in Decem-       gain in the fourth quarter, as investment in transporta-
ber. The unemployment rate for African Americans            tion equipment was held back by supply bottlenecks and
moved higher, and the Hispanic unemployment rate de-        limited supplies of construction materials restrained
clined; both rates remained well above the national aver-   nonresidential structures investment.
age. The labor force participation rate was unchanged
in December, and the employment-to-population ratio         Manufacturing output moved down in December after
moved up. The private-sector job openings rate, as          advancing strongly in October and November. Motor
_____________________________________________________________________________________________
                            Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022              Page 13

vehicle assemblies reversed some of their November in-          Short-term funding markets were stable, while participa-
crease; in addition, manufacturing production outside of        tion in the overnight reverse repurchase agreement
motor vehicles ticked lower.                                    (ON RRP) facility increased further. Market-based fi-
                                                                nancing conditions remained accommodative, and bank
Total real government purchases appeared to have fallen
                                                                lending standards eased for most loan categories.
in the fourth quarter. Although available data suggested
that real federal purchases rose, indicators of real state      The expected path for the federal funds rate over the
and local government purchases pointed to a decline in          next few years—implied by a straight read of overnight
the fourth quarter despite state and local governments’         index swap quotes—rose notably since the December
extremely strong budget positions and the widespread            FOMC meeting, apparently reflecting less-accommoda-
return to in-person schooling last fall.                        tive-than-expected FOMC communications and an eas-
                                                                ing of concerns around the economic effects of the
The U.S. international trade deficit widened at the end
                                                                Omicron variant. Those factors also contributed to no-
of last year. Imports of goods rose sharply in November
                                                                table rises in 2-, 5-, and 10-year nominal Treasury yields.
and December, led by increases in consumer goods,
                                                                Inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-
while exports of goods were little changed over the two
                                                                Protected Securities rose slightly, on net.
months, on net, after surging in October. Shipping con-
gestion and other bottlenecks continued to restrain the         Broad equity indexes decreased markedly, on net, partic-
level of trade in goods. Meanwhile, services exports            ularly in the latter part of the intermeeting period, as
jumped in November, reflecting a sizable increase in ex-        shifts in expectations about the pace of monetary policy
ports of travel services after the reopening of U.S. bor-       tightening, global inflationary pressures, and escalating
ders to vaccinated foreign travelers early in the month.        tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighed on equity
Even so, services trade was very low relative to pre-pan-       prices. The one-month option-implied volatility on the
demic norms, largely because the level of international         S&P 500—the VIX—increased considerably, on net, to
travel remained depressed.                                      above the 90th percentile of its historical distribution.
Incoming data suggested that foreign economic growth            Spreads of investment- and speculative-grade corporate
picked up in the fourth quarter of 2021 as economies in         bonds widened modestly. Spreads of municipal bonds
emerging Asia bounced back from lockdowns in the                were roughly unchanged.
third quarter induced by the Delta variant of the               Short-term funding markets were stable over the inter-
COVID-19 virus. Purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)              meeting period. The effective federal funds rate and the
pointed to improved supplier delivery times, and foreign        Secured Overnight Financing Rate generally held steady
vehicle production rose notably, suggesting that supply         at 8 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively. Partic-
bottlenecks continued to ease somewhat. However, the            ipation in ON RRP operations averaged $1.6 trillion,
rapid spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed pub-         about $150 billion higher than during the previous inter-
lic health restrictions in several countries, particularly in   meeting period, and reached an all-time high of $1.9 tril-
China, and appeared to be weighing on activity at the           lion at year-end. Government money market funds con-
start of the year. Inflation abroad continued to rise,          tinued to receive investment inflows and accounted for
mostly driven by further increases in retail energy prices,     the majority of ON RRP take-up.
effects from supply bottlenecks, and, in some emerging
market economies (EMEs), by rising food prices. That            Over the intermeeting period, movements in foreign as-
                                                                set prices responded to waning concerns about the Omi-
said, input and output price components of PMIs pro-
vided some tentative signs that easing supply constraints       cron variant’s potential economic effects and firming
have started to contribute to some letup in inflationary        views that monetary accommodation in several ad-
pressures in several foreign economies.                         vanced economies will be removed at a faster pace than
                                                                previously expected. Some market participants also
Staff Review of the Financial Situation                         pointed to rising geopolitical tensions related to Russia
Over the intermeeting period, easing concerns around            as contributing to the moves. On net, AFE sovereign
the economic effects of the Omicron variant and FOMC            yields increased notably, most major foreign equity in-
communications that were viewed as less accommoda-              dexes declined moderately, and the broad dollar index
tive than expected contributed to increases in Treasury         decreased modestly. EME sovereign spreads widened,
yields. Long-term sovereign yields in AFEs also rose no-        and capital flows into EME-dedicated bond funds re-
tably. Broad domestic equity indexes decreased mark-            mained slightly negative, while flows into EME equity
edly, and spreads of corporate bonds widened modestly.          funds turned positive.
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