Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 25-26, 2022
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_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 1 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 25–26, 2022 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Patricia Zobel, Deputy Manager, System Open Market and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys- Account tem was held by videoconference on Tuesday, Janu- ary 25, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, January 26, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. 1 Board Attendance Matthew J. Eichner, 2 Director, Division of Reserve Jerome H. Powell, Chair Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board; John C. Williams, Vice Chair Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division of Michelle W. Bowman Supervision and Regulation, Board Lael Brainard James Bullard Daniel M. Covitz, Deputy Director, Division of Esther L. George Research and Statistics, Board; Sally Davies, Loretta J. Mester Deputy Director, Division of International Christopher J. Waller Finance, Board; Rochelle M. Edge, Deputy Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; Meredith Black, Charles L. Evans, Patrick Harker, Michael T. Kiley, Deputy Director, Division of Naureen Hassan, and Neel Kashkari, Alternate Financial Stability, Board Members of the Committee Jon Faust and Joshua Gallin, Senior Special Advisers to Thomas I. Barkin, Raphael W. Bostic, and Mary C. the Chair, Division of Board Members, Board Daly, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectively Antulio N. Bomfim, Jane E. Ihrig, Kurt F. Lewis, and Nitish R. Sinha, Special Advisers to the Board, Kenneth C. Montgomery, Interim President of the Division of Board Members, Board Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Division of James A. Clouse, Secretary Board Members, Board Matthew M. Luecke, Deputy Secretary Brian J. Bonis, Assistant Secretary Michael G. Palumbo, Senior Associate Director, Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary Division of Research and Statistics, Board Mark E. Van Der Weide, General Counsel Michael Held, Deputy General Counsel Stephanie E. Curcuru,2 Associate Director, Division of Trevor A. Reeve, Economist International Finance, Board; Eric C. Engstrom Stacey Tevlin, Economist and Christopher J. Gust, Associate Directors, Beth Anne Wilson, Economist Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; Glenn Follette, Associate Director, Division of Research Shaghil Ahmed, Brian M. Doyle, Carlos Garriga, and Statistics, Board Joseph W. Gruber, David E. Lebow, Ellis W. Tallman, Geoffrey Tootell, and William Wascher, Erik A. Heitfield, Deputy Associate Director, Division Associate Economists of Research and Statistics, Board; Laura Lipscomb and Zeynep Senyuz,2 Deputy Associate Directors, Lorie K. Logan, Manager, System Open Market Division of Monetary Affairs, Board Account 1 The Federal Open Market Committee is referenced as the 2 Attended through the discussion of principles for reducing “FOMC” and the “Committee” in these minutes; the Board the size of the balance sheet. of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is referenced as the “Board” in these minutes.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 2 Federal Open Market Committee Etienne Gagnon2 and Andrew Meldrum, Assistant Deborah Leonard2 and Rania Perry,2 Vice Presidents, Directors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York Mark A. Carlson, Adviser, Division of Monetary James Dolmas, Economic Policy Adviser and Senior Affairs, Board Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Alyssa G. Anderson and Valerie S. Hinojosa, Section Radhika Mithal,2 Markets Officer, Federal Reserve Chiefs, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; Bank of New York Penelope A. Beattie, 3 Section Chief, Office of the Secretary, Board Annual Organizational Matters 4 The agenda for this meeting reported that advices of the Alyssa Arute, Manager, Division of Reserve Bank election of the following members and alternate mem- Operations and Payment Systems, Board bers of the Federal Open Market Committee for a term beginning January 25, 2022, were received and that these Camille Bryan, Senior Project Manager, Division of individuals executed their oaths of office. Monetary Affairs, Board The elected members and alternate members were as fol- lows: David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with Naureen Hassan, First Vice President Damjan Pfajfar, Mary Tian, and Randall A. Williams, of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as alternate Group Managers, Division of Monetary Affairs, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank Board of Philadelphia, as alternate David B. Cashin, Principal Economist, Division of Loretta J. Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank Research and Statistics, Board; Erin E. Ferris, of Cleveland, with Charles L. Evans, President of the Kyungmin Kim, and Bernd Schlusche,2 Principal Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as alternate Economists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Colin J. Hottman, Principal Economist, Division St. Louis, with Meredith Black, Interim President of the of International Finance, Board Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as alternate David Na,2 Senior Financial Institution and Policy Esther L. George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank Analyst, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Kansas City, with Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, as alternate. Isaiah C. Ahn, Information Management Analyst, By unanimous vote, the following officers of the Com- Division of Monetary Affairs, Board mittee were selected to serve until the selection of their successors at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the David Altig, Kartik B. Athreya, and Sylvain Leduc, Committee in 2023: Executive Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Richmond, and San Francisco, Jerome H. Powell Chair respectively John C. Williams Vice Chair James A. Clouse Secretary Anne Baum, John Clark,2 Spencer Krane, Paolo A. Matthew M. Luecke Deputy Secretary Pesenti, Julie Ann Remache,2 Keith Sill, and Mark Brian J. Bonis Assistant Secretary L.J. Wright, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Michelle A. Smith Assistant Secretary Reserve Banks of New York, New York, Chicago, Mark E. Van Der Weide General Counsel New York, New York, Philadelphia, and Michael Held Deputy General Counsel Minneapolis, respectively Richard M. Ashton Assistant General Counsel 3 Attended Tuesday’s session only. 4 Committee organizational documents are available at www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/rules_authoriza- tions.htm.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 3 Trevor Reeve Economist A. To buy or sell in the open market securities that Stacey Tevlin Economist are direct obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to prin- Beth Anne Wilson Economist cipal and interest by, the United States, and securities that are direct obligations of, or fully guaranteed as to Shaghil Ahmed principal and interest by, any agency of the United Brian M. Doyle States, that are eligible for purchase or sale under Sec- Carlos Garriga tion 14(b) of the Federal Reserve Act (“Eligible Secu- Joseph W. Gruber rities”) for the System Open Market Account Beverly Hirtle (“SOMA”): David E. Lebow i. As an outright operation with securities dealers Ellis W. Tallman and foreign and international accounts maintained Geoffrey Tootell at the Selected Bank: on a same-day or deferred de- William Wascher Associate Economists livery basis (including such transactions as are com- monly referred to as dollar rolls and coupon swaps) By unanimous vote, the Committee selected the Federal at market prices; or Reserve Bank of New York to execute transactions for ii. As a temporary operation: on a same-day or the System Open Market Account (SOMA). deferred delivery basis, to purchase such Eligible Se- By unanimous vote, the Committee selected Lorie K. curities subject to an agreement to resell (“repo Logan and Patricia Zobel to serve at the pleasure of the transactions”) or to sell such Eligible Securities sub- Committee as manager and deputy manager of the ject to an agreement to repurchase (“reverse repo SOMA, respectively, on the understanding that these se- transactions”) for a term of 65 business days or less, lections were subject to being satisfactory to the Federal at rates that, unless otherwise authorized by the Reserve Bank of New York. Committee, are determined by competitive bidding, after applying reasonable limitations on the volume Secretary’s note: The Federal Reserve Bank of of agreements with individual counterparties; New York subsequently sent advice that the B. To allow Eligible Securities in the SOMA to ma- manager and deputy manager selections indi- ture without replacement; cated previously were satisfactory. C. To exchange, at market prices, in connection By unanimous vote, the Committee voted to reaffirm with a Treasury auction, maturing Eligible Securities in without revision the Authorization for Domestic Open the SOMA with the Treasury, in the case of Eligible Market Operations, as shown below. By unanimous Securities that are direct obligations of the United vote, the Committee voted to reaffirm without revision States or that are fully guaranteed as to principal and the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations and interest by the United States; and to amend the Foreign Currency Directive to remove ref- D. To exchange, at market prices, maturing Eligible erences to the temporary dollar liquidity swap arrange- Securities in the SOMA with an agency of the United ments with foreign central banks, as shown below. The States, in the case of Eligible Securities that are direct Guidelines for the Conduct of System Open Market Op- obligations of that agency or that are fully guaranteed erations in Federal-Agency Issues remained suspended. as to principal and interest by that agency. AUTHORIZATION FOR DOMESTIC OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS SECURITIES LENDING (As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022) 2. In order to ensure the effective conduct of open OPEN MARKET TRANSACTIONS market operations, the Committee authorizes the Se- lected Bank to operate a program to lend Eligible Secu- 1. The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Com- rities held in the SOMA to dealers on an overnight basis mittee”) authorizes and directs the Federal Reserve Bank (except that the Selected Bank may lend Eligible Securi- selected by the Committee to execute open market trans- ties for longer than an overnight term to accommodate actions (the “Selected Bank”), to the extent necessary to weekend, holiday, and similar trading conventions). carry out the most recent domestic policy directive A. Such securities lending must be: adopted by the Committee: i. At rates determined by competitive bidding; ii. At a minimum lending fee consistent with the objectives of the program;
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 4 Federal Open Market Committee iii. Subject to reasonable limitations on the total ii. Undertake repo transactions in Eligible Securi- amount of a specific issue of Eligible Securities that ties with Foreign Accounts; and may be auctioned; and B. Any Federal Reserve Bank that maintains Cus- iv. Subject to reasonable limitations on the tomer Accounts, for any such Customer Account, amount of Eligible Securities that each borrower when appropriate and subject to all other necessary may borrow. authorization and approvals, to: B. The Selected Bank may: i. Undertake repo transactions in Eligible Securi- i. Reject bids that, as determined in its sole dis- ties with dealers with a corresponding reverse repo cretion, could facilitate a bidder’s ability to control a transaction in such Eligible Securities with the Cus- single issue; tomer Accounts; and ii. Accept Treasury securities or cash as collateral ii. Undertake intra-day repo transactions in Eligi- for any loan of securities authorized in this para- ble Securities with Foreign Accounts. graph 2; and Transactions undertaken with Customer Accounts un- iii. Accept agency securities as collateral only for a der the provisions of this paragraph 4 may provide for a loan of agency securities authorized in this para- service fee when appropriate. Transactions undertaken graph 2. with Customer Accounts are also subject to the authori- zation or approval of other entities, including the Board OPERATIONAL READINESS TESTING of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and, when involving accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve 3. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to Bank as fiscal agent of the United States, the United undertake transactions of the type described in para- States Department of the Treasury. graphs 1 and 2 from time to time for the purpose of test- ing operational readiness, subject to the following limi- ADDITIONAL MATTERS tations: A. All transactions authorized in this paragraph 3 5. The Committee authorizes the Chair of the Com- shall be conducted with prior notice to the Commit- mittee, in fostering the Committee’s objectives during tee; any period between meetings of the Committee, to in- B. The aggregate par value of the transactions au- struct the Selected Bank to act on behalf of the Commit- thorized in this paragraph 3 that are of the type de- tee to: scribed in paragraph 1.A.i, 1.B, 1.C and 1.D shall not A. Adjust somewhat in exceptional circumstances exceed $5 billion per calendar year; and the stance of monetary policy and to take actions that C. The outstanding amount of the transactions de- may result in material changes in the composition and scribed in paragraphs 1.A.ii and 2 shall not exceed size of the assets in the SOMA; or $5 billion at any given time. B. Undertake transactions with respect to Eligible Securities in order to appropriately address temporary TRANSACTIONS WITH CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS disruptions of an operational or highly unusual nature in U.S. dollar funding markets. 4. In order to ensure the effective conduct of open Any such adjustment described in subparagraph A of market operations, while assisting in the provision of this paragraph 5 shall be made in the context of the short-term investments or other authorized services for Committee’s discussion and decision about the stance of foreign central bank and international accounts main- policy at its most recent meeting and the Committee’s tained at a Federal Reserve Bank (the “Foreign Ac- long-run objectives to foster maximum employment and counts”) and accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve price stability, and shall be based on economic, financial, Bank as fiscal agent of the United States pursuant to sec- and monetary developments since the most recent meet- tion 15 of the Federal Reserve Act (together with the ing of the Committee. The Chair, whenever feasible, will Foreign Accounts, the “Customer Accounts”), the Com- consult with the Committee before making any instruc- mittee authorizes the following when undertaken on tion under this paragraph 5. terms comparable to those available in the open market: A. The Selected Bank, for the SOMA, to: i. Undertake reverse repo transactions in Eligible Securities held in the SOMA with the Customer Ac- counts for a term of 65 business days or less; and
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 5 AUTHORIZATION FOR FOREIGN CURRENCY STANDALONE SPOT AND FORWARD TRANS- OPERATIONS ACTIONS (As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022) 3. For any operation that involves standalone spot or IN GENERAL forward transactions in foreign currencies: A. Approval of such operation is required as fol- 1. The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Com- lows: mittee”) authorizes the Federal Reserve Bank selected by i. The Committee must direct the Selected Bank the Committee (the “Selected Bank”) to execute open in advance to execute the operation if it would result market transactions for the System Open Market Ac- in the overall volume of standalone spot and for- count as provided in this Authorization, to the extent ward transactions in foreign currencies, as defined necessary to carry out any foreign currency directive of in paragraph 3.C of this Authorization, exceeding the Committee: $5 billion since the close of the most recent regular A. To purchase and sell foreign currencies (also meeting of the Committee. The Foreign Currency known as cable transfers) at home and abroad in the Subcommittee (the “Subcommittee”) must direct open market, including with the United States Treas- the Selected Bank in advance to execute the opera- ury, with foreign monetary authorities, with the Bank tion if the Subcommittee believes that consultation for International Settlements, and with other entities with the Committee is not feasible in the time avail- in the open market. This authorization to purchase able. and sell foreign currencies encompasses purchases and ii. The Committee authorizes the Subcommittee sales through standalone spot or forward transactions to direct the Selected Bank in advance to execute the and through foreign exchange swap transactions. For operation if it would result in the overall volume of purposes of this Authorization, foreign exchange standalone spot and forward transactions in foreign swap transactions are: swap transactions with the currencies, as defined in paragraph 3.C of this Au- United States Treasury (also known as warehousing thorization, totaling $5 billion or less since the close transactions), swap transactions with other central of the most recent regular meeting of the Commit- banks under reciprocal currency arrangements, swap tee. transactions with other central banks understanding B. Such an operation also shall be: dollar liquidity and foreign currency liquidity swap ar- i. Generally directed at countering disorderly rangements, and swap transactions with other entities market conditions; or in the open market. ii. Undertaken to adjust System balances in light B. To hold balances of, and to have outstanding for- of probable future needs for currencies; or ward contracts to receive or to deliver, foreign curren- iii. Conducted for such other purposes as may be cies. determined by the Committee. 2. All transactions in foreign currencies undertaken C. For purposes of this Authorization, the overall pursuant to paragraph 1 above shall, unless otherwise volume of standalone spot and forward transactions authorized by the Committee, be conducted: in foreign currencies is defined as the sum (disregard- A. In a manner consistent with the obligations re- ing signs) of the dollar values of individual foreign cur- garding exchange arrangements under Article IV of rencies purchased and sold, valued at the time of the the Articles of Agreement of the International Mone- transaction. tary Fund (IMF).1 B. In close and continuous cooperation and consul- WAREHOUSING tation, as appropriate, with the United States Treasury. C. In consultation, as appropriate, with foreign 4. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank, with monetary authorities, foreign central banks, and inter- the prior approval of the Subcommittee and at the re- national monetary institutions. quest of the United States Treasury, to conduct swap D. At prevailing market rates. transactions with the United States Exchange Stabiliza- tion Fund established by section 10 of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 under agreements in which the Selected Bank purchases foreign currencies from the Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Exchange Stabilization Fund repurchases the foreign currencies from the Selected
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 6 Federal Open Market Committee Bank at a later date (such purchases and sales also known any changes in terms, and the terms shall be con- as warehousing). sistent with principles discussed with and guidance provided by the Committee. RECIPROCAL CURRENCY ARRANGEMENTS, AND STANDING DOLLAR AND FOREIGN CUR- OTHER OPERATIONS IN FOREIGN CURREN- RENCY LIQUIDITY SWAPS CIES 5. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to 6. Any other operations in foreign currencies for maintain reciprocal currency arrangements established which governance is not otherwise specified in this Au- under the North American Framework Agreement, thorization (such as foreign exchange swap transactions standing dollar liquidity swap arrangements, temporary with private-sector counterparties) must be authorized dollar liquidity swap arrangements, and standing foreign and directed in advance by the Committee. currency liquidity swap arrangements as provided in this Authorization and to the extent necessary to carry out FOREIGN CURRENCY HOLDINGS any foreign currency directive of the Committee. A. For reciprocal currency arrangements all draw- 7. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to ings must be approved in advance by the Committee hold foreign currencies for the System Open Market Ac- (or by the Subcommittee, if the Subcommittee be- count in accounts maintained at foreign central banks, lieves that consultation with the Committee is not fea- the Bank for International Settlements, and such other sible in the time available). foreign institutions as approved by the Board of Gover- B. For standing and temporary dollar liquidity swap nors under Section 214.5 of Regulation N, to the extent arrangements all drawings must be approved in ad- necessary to carry out any foreign currency directive of vance by the Chair. The Chair may approve a schedule the Committee. of potential drawings, and may delegate to the man- A. The Selected Bank shall manage all holdings of ager, System Open Market Account, the authority to foreign currencies for the System Open Market Ac- approve individual drawings that occur according to count: the schedule approved by the Chair. i. Primarily, to ensure sufficient liquidity to ena- C. For standing foreign currency liquidity swap ar- ble the Selected Bank to conduct foreign currency rangements all drawings must be approved in advance operations as directed by the Committee; by the Committee (or by the Subcommittee, if the ii. Secondarily, to maintain a high degree of Subcommittee believes that consultation with the safety; Committee is not feasible in the time available). iii. Subject to paragraphs 7.A.i and 7.A.ii, to pro- D. Operations involving standing and temporary vide the highest rate of return possible in each cur- dollar liquidity swap arrangements and standing for- rency; and eign currency liquidity swap arrangements shall gener- iv. To achieve such other objectives as may be au- ally be directed at countering strains in financial mar- thorized by the Committee. kets in the United States or abroad, or reducing the B. The Selected Bank may manage such foreign cur- risk that they could emerge, so as to mitigate their ef- rency holdings by: fects on economic and financial conditions in the i. Purchasing and selling obligations of, or fully United States. guaranteed as to principal and interest by, a foreign E. For reciprocal currency arrangements, standing government or agency thereof (“Permitted Foreign and temporary dollar liquidity swap arrangements, and Securities”) through outright purchases and sales; standing foreign currency liquidity swap arrangements: ii. Purchasing Permitted Foreign Securities under i. All arrangements are subject to annual review agreements for repurchase of such Permitted For- and approval by the Committee; eign Securities and selling such securities under ii. Any new arrangements must be approved by agreements for the resale of such securities; and the Committee; and iii. Managing balances in various time and other iii. Any changes in the terms of existing arrange- deposit accounts at foreign institutions approved by ments must be approved in advance by the Chair. the Board of Governors under Regulation N. The Chair shall keep the Committee informed of C. The Subcommittee, in consultation with the Committee, may provide additional instructions to the
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 7 Selected Bank regarding holdings of foreign curren- Chair, whenever feasible, will consult with the Commit- cies. tee before making any instruction under this paragraph. __________________________ ADDITIONAL MATTERS 1 In general, as specified in Article IV, each member of the IMF undertakes to collaborate with the IMF and other 8. The Committee authorizes the Chair: members to assure orderly exchange arrangements and to A. With the prior approval of the Committee, to en- promote a stable system of exchange rates. These obligations include seeking to direct the member’s economic and financial ter into any needed agreement or understanding with policies toward the objective of fostering orderly economic the Secretary of the United States Treasury about the growth with reasonable price stability. These obligations also division of responsibility for foreign currency opera- include avoiding manipulating exchange rates or the tions between the System and the United States Treas- international monetary system in such a way that would ury; impede effective balance of payments adjustment or to give B. To advise the Secretary of the United States an unfair competitive advantage over other members. Treasury concerning System foreign currency opera- tions, and to consult with the Secretary on policy mat- FOREIGN CURRENCY DIRECTIVE ters relating to foreign currency operations; (As amended effective January 25, 2022) C. To designate Federal Reserve System persons au- 1. The Committee directs the Federal Reserve Bank thorized to communicate with the United States selected by the Committee (the “Selected Bank”) to ex- Treasury concerning System Open Market Account ecute open market transactions, for the System Open foreign currency operations; and Market Account, in accordance with the provisions of D. From time to time, to transmit appropriate re- the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations (the ports and information to the National Advisory Coun- “Authorization”) and subject to the limits in this Di- cil on International Monetary and Financial Policies. rective. 9. The Committee authorizes the Selected Bank to 2. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to exe- undertake transactions of the type described in this Au- cute warehousing transactions, if so requested by the thorization, and foreign exchange and investment United States Treasury and if approved by the Foreign transactions that it may be otherwise authorized to Currency Subcommittee (the “Subcommittee”), subject undertake, from time to time for the purpose of testing to the limitation that the outstanding balance of United operational readiness. The aggregate amount of such States dollars provided to the United States Treasury as transactions shall not exceed $2.5 billion per calendar a result of these transactions not at any time exceed year. These transactions shall be conducted with prior $5 billion. notice to the Committee. 3. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to main- 10. All Federal Reserve banks shall participate in the tain, for the System Open Market Account: foreign currency operations for System Open Market A. Reciprocal currency arrangements with the fol- Account in accordance with paragraph 3G(1) of the lowing foreign central banks: Board of Governors’ Statement of Procedure with Re- spect to Foreign Relationships of Federal Reserve Banks Foreign central bank Maximum amount dated January 1, 1944. (millions of dollars 11. Any authority of the Subcommittee pursuant to or equivalent) this Authorization may be exercised by the Chair if the Bank of Canada 2,000 Chair believes that consultation with the Subcommittee Bank of Mexico 3,000 is not feasible in the time available. The Chair shall promptly report to the Subcommittee any action ap- B. Standing dollar liquidity swap arrangements with proved by the Chair pursuant to this paragraph. the following foreign central banks: 12. The Committee authorizes the Chair, in excep- tional circumstances where it would not be feasible to Bank of Canada convene the Committee, to foster the Committee’s ob- Bank of England jectives by instructing the Selected Bank to engage in Bank of Japan foreign currency operations not otherwise authorized European Central Bank pursuant to this Authorization. Any such action shall be Swiss National Bank made in the context of the Committee’s discussion and decisions regarding foreign currency operations. The
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 8 Federal Open Market Committee C. Standing foreign currency liquidity swap arrange- (iii) be conducted with a minimum bid rate set at a level ments with the following foreign central banks: directed by the Committee; (iv) be offered on an over- night basis (except that the Open Market Desk at the Bank of Canada Selected Bank may extend the term for longer than an Bank of England overnight term to accommodate weekend, holiday, and Bank of Japan similar trading conventions); and (v) be subject to an ag- European Central Bank gregate operation limit of $500 billion. The aggregate Swiss National Bank operation limit can be temporarily increased at the dis- cretion of the Chair. These operations shall be con- 4. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to hold ducted by the Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank and to invest foreign currencies in the portfolio in ac- until otherwise directed by the Committee. cordance with the provisions of paragraph 7 of the Au- STANDING FIMA REPURCHASE AGREEMENT thorization. RESOLUTION 5. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to report (As amended effective January 25, 2022) to the Committee, at each regular meeting of the Com- mittee, on transactions undertaken pursuant to para- The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Commit- graphs 1 and 6 of the Authorization. The Selected Bank tee”) authorizes and directs the Open Market Desk at is also directed to provide quarterly reports to the Com- the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the “Selected mittee regarding the management of the foreign cur- Bank”), for the System Open Market Account rency holdings pursuant to paragraph 7 of the Authori- (“SOMA”), to offer to purchase U.S. Treasury securities zation. subject to an agreement to resell (“repurchase agreement 6. The Committee directs the Selected Bank to con- transactions”) with foreign central bank and interna- duct testing of transactions for the purpose of opera- tional accounts maintained at a Federal Reserve Bank tional readiness in accordance with the provisions of (the “Foreign Accounts”). The repurchase agreement paragraph 9 of the Authorization. transactions hereby authorized and directed shall (i) in- The Committee voted unanimously to approve with clude only U.S. Treasury securities; (ii) be conducted minor revisions the Standing Repurchase Agreement Fa- with Foreign Accounts approved in advance by the For- cility Resolution, as shown below. All but one member eign Currency Subcommittee (the ”Subcommittee”); (iii) of the Committee voted to approve with minor revisions be conducted at an offering rate equal to the minimum the Standing FIMA Repurchase Agreement Resolution. bid rate for the standing repurchase agreement facility Governor Bowman abstained from the vote on the unless the Subcommittee establishes a different offering Standing FIMA Repurchase Agreement Resolution. rate; (iv) be offered on an overnight basis (except that The resolutions were modified to remove references to the Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank may extend a specific facility rate to allow for normal adjustment in the term for longer than an overnight term to accommo- the facility rates when the Committee makes changes to date weekend, holiday, and similar trading conventions); the target range for the federal funds rate. and (v) be subject to a per-counterparty limit of $60 bil- lion per day. The Subcommittee may approve changes STANDING REPURCHASE AGREEMENT FACIL- in the offering rate, the maturity of the transactions, eli- ITY RESOLUTION gible Foreign Accounts counterparties (either by ap- (As amended effective January 25, 2022) proving or removing account access), and the counter- The Federal Open Market Committee (the “Commit- party limit; and the Subcommittee shall keep the Com- tee”) authorizes and directs the Open Market Desk at mittee informed of any such changes. These transac- the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (the “Selected tions shall be undertaken by the Open Market Desk at Bank”), for the System Open Market Account the Selected Bank until otherwise directed by the Com- (“SOMA”), to conduct operations in which it offers to mittee. The Open Market Desk at the Selected Bank will purchase securities, subject to an agreement to resell also report at least annually to the Committee on facility (“repurchase agreement transactions”). The repurchase usage and the list of approved account holders. agreement transactions hereby authorized and directed Regarding the tough and comprehensive ethics rules for shall (i) include only U.S. Treasury securities, agency senior officials that were announced in October, the debt securities, and agency mortgage-backed securities; Chair indicated that staff were working through com- (ii) be conducted as open market operations with pri- ments received from policymakers and were aiming to mary dealers and depository institutions as participants;
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 9 circulate a new draft soon. Noting the urgency in bring- that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor mar- ing the new policy to completion, the Chair proposed ket. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to spec- that the Committee vote on a final draft as soon in the ify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s intermeeting period as possible. policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rec- In the Committee’s annual reconsideration of the State- ognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain ment on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strat- and subject to revision. The Committee considers a egy, all participants supported the statement as written, wide range of indicators in making these assessments. and the Committee voted unanimously to reaffirm with- The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily de- out revision. termined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee In discussing the statement, the Chair noted that, con- has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. sistent with previous communications, a formal frame- The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at work review would commence in 2024 and conclude in the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change 2025. That timing would allow perspectives on recent in the price index for personal consumption expendi- events to inform considerations of potential revisions to tures, is most consistent over the longer run with the the framework. Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are STATEMENT ON LONGER-RUN GOALS AND well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and mod- MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY (As reaffirmed effective January 25, 2022) erate long-term interest rates and enhance the Commit- tee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is face of significant economic disturbances. In order to firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Congress of promoting maximum employment, sta- the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages ble prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy deci- periods when inflation has been running persistently be- sions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity low 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncer- some time. tainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, Monetary policy actions tend to influence economic and enhances transparency and accountability, which are activity, employment, and prices with a lag. In setting essential in a democratic society. monetary policy, the Committee seeks over time to mit- Employment, inflation, and long-term interest rates igate shortfalls of employment from the Committee’s as- fluctuate over time in response to economic and finan- sessment of its maximum level and deviations of infla- cial disturbances. Monetary policy plays an important tion from its longer-run goal. Moreover, sustainably role in stabilizing the economy in response to these dis- achieving maximum employment and price stability de- turbances. The Committee’s primary means of adjusting pends on a stable financial system. Therefore, the Com- the stance of monetary policy is through changes in the mittee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the bal- judges that the level of the federal funds rate consistent ance of risks, including risks to the financial system that with maximum employment and price stability over the could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. longer run has declined relative to its historical average. The Committee’s employment and inflation objectives Therefore, the federal funds rate is likely to be con- are generally complementary. However, under circum- strained by its effective lower bound more frequently stances in which the Committee judges that the objec- than in the past. Owing in part to the proximity of in- tives are not complementary, it takes into account the terest rates to the effective lower bound, the Committee employment shortfalls and inflation deviations and the judges that downward risks to employment and inflation potentially different time horizons over which employ- have increased. The Committee is prepared to use its ment and inflation are projected to return to levels full range of tools to achieve its maximum employment judged consistent with its mandate. and price stability goals. The Committee intends to review these principles and The maximum level of employment is a broad-based to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organi- and inclusive goal that is not directly measurable and zational meeting each January, and to undertake roughly changes over time owing largely to nonmonetary factors
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 10 Federal Open Market Committee every five years a thorough public review of its monetary with much of the increase following the release of the policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. minutes for the December FOMC meeting. In addition, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads wid- Financial Developments and Open Market ened notably after having been stable at low levels for Operations the past year, reportedly driven by expectations for an The manager turned first to a review of domestic finan- earlier and faster runoff of agency MBS than had been cial market developments over the intermeeting period. expected. Treasury yields rose across the curve, led by higher real The manager turned next to a discussion of international yields. Expectations for tighter monetary policy ahead, financial market developments. Sovereign yields in- as well as an easing of COVID-related concerns, were creased across advanced foreign economies (AFEs), re- cited as contributing to the increase in yields. The portedly driven by receding concerns about the Omi- S&P 500 index declined around 5 percent, with sharp cron variant, elevated inflation readings, and, relatedly, moves toward the end of the period, reportedly expectations that central banks would remove policy ac- prompted by concerns about the implications of a commodation sooner than had been expected. Several tighter path of monetary policy and rising geopolitical central banks concluded their net asset purchases late risks. last year, and more were expected to do so this year. On Regarding the monetary policy outlook, with data show- the outlook for policy rates, several central banks had ing continuing tightening of labor market conditions and either already increased their policy rates or were ex- elevated inflationary pressures, policymaker communi- pected to do so later this year. cations were perceived as pointing to an earlier and The manager provided an update on issues related to faster removal of accommodation than market partici- monetary policy implementation. Reductions in the pants had previously expected. Against this backdrop, pace of the Committee’s net asset purchases had pro- respondents to the Open Market Desk’s surveys of pri- ceeded smoothly to date and functioning in Treasury mary dealers and market participants almost uniformly and agency MBS markets remained stable. Regarding projected that the Federal Reserve’s net asset purchases the potential for the Committee to reduce System Open would end by mid-March. The median survey projec- Market Account (SOMA) holdings in the future, market tion for the commencement of balance sheet runoff participants generally anticipated that SOMA redemp- shifted into the third quarter of this year, roughly a year tions could proceed smoothly at a somewhat faster pace and a half sooner than in the December surveys. Most than during the previous period of balance sheet reduc- survey respondents also expected the portfolio to de- tion from 2017 to 2019. However, some also noted that cline at a significantly faster pace than they did in De- SOMA redemptions would require significant adjust- cember. ments to private-sector balance sheets, as investors ab- Expectations for the path of the federal funds rate sorb the net increase in Treasury and agency MBS issu- shifted toward earlier rate increases, and interest rate fu- ance to the private sector and money markets transition tures priced in an increase in the target range for the fed- to lower levels of liquidity, and that these adjustments eral funds rate at the March FOMC meeting. On aver- could take some time. age, respondents to the Desk surveys assigned a roughly The manager discussed expectations for the evolution of 70 percent probability to an increase in the target range the Federal Reserve’s administered rates in connection in March. The expected path of the federal funds rate in with a potential future change in the target range for the the Desk surveys and derived from interest rate futures federal funds rate. The Desk survey responses suggested also steepened over the period. The median survey pro- expectations for administered rates to be raised by the jection for the most likely level of the target range at the same increment as the target range for the federal funds end of 2024 was about 2 percent, similar to December. rate. The manager noted that the current setting of ad- Nonetheless, survey respondents attached significant ministered rates relative to the target range had been probability to outcomes in which the target range moved working well and anticipated that it could continue to up more than indicated by the projected modal path. support effective policy implementation following any Changing views about the likely path of the Federal Re- increase in the target range in coming months, although serve’s balance sheet following the release of the Decem- adjustments could be warranted over time. ber FOMC minutes seemed to affect longer-term yields. By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk’s Far forward real yields moved higher over the period, domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. No
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 11 intervention operations occurred in foreign currencies tain and probably would remain so. Consequently, mar- for the System’s account during the intermeeting period. ket conditions would have to be monitored closely to determine the appropriate longer-run level of reserves Principles for Reducing the Size of the Balance and the size of the balance sheet. Sheet Participants continued their discussion of topics associ- Participants agreed that the Committee should reduce ated with potential adjustments in the Committee’s pol- the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings over time in a icy tools that may be appropriate to support the achieve- predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts ment of sustained strong labor market conditions and a reinvested of principal payments received from securi- return of inflation to levels consistent with the Commit- ties held in the SOMA. They also agreed that the SOMA tee’s longer-run 2 percent objective under a wide range should hold primarily Treasury securities in the longer of circumstances. At this meeting, participants dis- run. Regarding these two principles, many participants cussed high-level principles that could be released to the commented that sales of agency MBS or reinvesting public to describe the Committee’s approach for reduc- some portion of principal payments received from ing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. They agency MBS into Treasury securities may be appropriate agreed that the principles would address, at a high level, at some point in the future to enable suitable progress the sequence of adjustments in the interest rate and bal- toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composition con- ance sheet tools to reduce policy accommodation, the sisting primarily of Treasury securities. Committee’s approach to balance sheet runoff, and its Participants agreed that it was appropriate at this time intentions for the longer-run size and composition of the for the Committee to publish its high-level principles for balance sheet. The participants’ discussion was pre- reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. ceded by a staff presentation that reviewed key consid- They also agreed that it was important for the Commit- erations raised by participants at the December FOMC tee to retain the flexibility to adjust any of the details of meeting and examined how the proposed set of princi- its approach in light of changing economic and financial ples, which reflected those considerations, compared conditions. Participants noted that the principles would with the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans is- serve as an important guide in future deliberations on sued in 2014. balance sheet reduction. While no decisions regarding In their discussion, participants reaffirmed that changes specific details for reducing the size of the balance sheet in the target range for the federal funds rate are the Com- were made at this meeting, participants agreed to con- mittee’s primary means for adjusting the stance of mon- tinue their discussions at upcoming meetings. etary policy, as noted in the Committee’s Statement on Following the conclusion of the discussion, all partici- Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. Par- pants supported the proposed principles for reducing ticipants judged that the timing and pace of balance the size of the balance sheet. The Committee voted sheet reduction would be determined so as to promote unanimously to adopt the Principles for Reducing the the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-sta- Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, as shown bility goals and that it would be appropriate to begin the below. process of reducing the size of the balance sheet after the process of increasing the target range for the federal PRINCIPLES FOR REDUCING THE SIZE OF funds rate has begun. While participants agreed that de- THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S BALANCE SHEET tails on the timing and pace of balance sheet runoff (As adopted effective January 25, 2022) would be determined at upcoming meetings, participants generally noted that current economic and financial con- The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is ditions would likely warrant a faster pace of balance appropriate at this time to provide information regard- sheet runoff than during the period of balance sheet re- ing its planned approach for significantly reducing the duction from 2017 to 2019. Participants observed that, size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. All partici- in light of the current high level of the Federal Reserve’s pants agreed on the following elements: securities holdings, a significant reduction in the size of the balance sheet would likely be appropriate. Partici- • The Committee views changes in the target pants noted that the level of securities holdings con- range for the federal funds rate as its pri- sistent with implementing monetary policy efficiently mary means of adjusting the stance of mon- and effectively in an ample reserves regime was uncer- etary policy.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Page 12 Federal Open Market Committee • The Committee will determine the timing measured by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Sur- and pace of reducing the size of the Federal vey, moved down in November but remained well above Reserve's balance sheet so as to promote its pre-pandemic levels; the quits rate was also elevated. maximum employment and price stability Weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls, constructed goals. The Committee expects that reduc- by the Board’s staff using data provided by the payroll ing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance processor ADP that were available through the first half sheet will commence after the process of in- of January, pointed to a slower pace of private employ- creasing the target range for the federal ment gains relative to December. Average hourly earn- funds rate has begun. ings rose at an annual rate of 6.2 percent over the last three months of the year; although wage increases were • The Committee intends to reduce the Fed- widespread across industries, they were particularly no- eral Reserve's securities holdings over time table in the leisure and hospitality sector as well as the in a predictable manner primarily by adjust- transportation and warehousing sector. ing the amounts reinvested of principal pay- ments received from securities held in the Inflation readings remained high, and various indicators System Open Market Account (SOMA). suggested that inflationary pressures had broadened over the second half of 2021. Total PCE price inflation • Over time, the Committee intends to main- was 5.7 percent over the 12 months ending in Novem- tain securities holdings in amounts needed ber, and core PCE price inflation, which excludes to implement monetary policy efficiently changes in consumer energy prices and many consumer and effectively in its ample reserves regime. food prices, was 4.7 percent over the same period. The • In the longer run, the Committee intends to trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE inflation con- hold primarily Treasury securities in the structed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas was SOMA, thereby minimizing the effect of 2.8 percent in November, 1 percentage point higher Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation than its year-earlier rate of increase. In December, the of credit across sectors of the economy. 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) was 7.0 percent, while core CPI inflation was 5.5 percent • The Committee is prepared to adjust any of over the same period. The staff’s common inflation ex- the details of its approach to reducing the pectations index, which combines information from size of the balance sheet in light of eco- many indicators of inflation expectations and inflation nomic and financial developments. compensation, had largely leveled off over the fall and Staff Review of the Economic Situation was close to its 2014 average. The information available at the time of the January 25– Real PCE was unchanged in November, and available 26 meeting suggested that U.S. real gross domestic prod- indicators—including the components of the nominal uct (GDP) growth had picked up in the fourth quarter retail sales data used to estimate PCE—pointed to a de- after slowing in the third quarter. Labor market condi- cline in December, possibly reflecting the sharp rise in tions improved further in December, and indicators of COVID-19 cases in the second half of that month as labor compensation continued to show robust increases. well as some holiday sales having been pulled forward to Consumer price inflation through November—as meas- earlier months. Housing demand remained strong, and ured by the 12-month percentage change in the price in- available indicators suggested that residential investment dex for personal consumption expenditures (PCE)—re- increased in the fourth quarter. However, shortages of mained elevated. construction materials, buildable lots, and other inputs Total nonfarm payroll employment posted a moderate continued to weigh on activity in this sector. gain in December. The unemployment rate declined Business fixed investment appeared to post only a small from 4.2 percent in November to 3.9 percent in Decem- gain in the fourth quarter, as investment in transporta- ber. The unemployment rate for African Americans tion equipment was held back by supply bottlenecks and moved higher, and the Hispanic unemployment rate de- limited supplies of construction materials restrained clined; both rates remained well above the national aver- nonresidential structures investment. age. The labor force participation rate was unchanged in December, and the employment-to-population ratio Manufacturing output moved down in December after moved up. The private-sector job openings rate, as advancing strongly in October and November. Motor
_____________________________________________________________________________________________ Minutes of the Meeting of January 25–26, 2022 Page 13 vehicle assemblies reversed some of their November in- Short-term funding markets were stable, while participa- crease; in addition, manufacturing production outside of tion in the overnight reverse repurchase agreement motor vehicles ticked lower. (ON RRP) facility increased further. Market-based fi- nancing conditions remained accommodative, and bank Total real government purchases appeared to have fallen lending standards eased for most loan categories. in the fourth quarter. Although available data suggested that real federal purchases rose, indicators of real state The expected path for the federal funds rate over the and local government purchases pointed to a decline in next few years—implied by a straight read of overnight the fourth quarter despite state and local governments’ index swap quotes—rose notably since the December extremely strong budget positions and the widespread FOMC meeting, apparently reflecting less-accommoda- return to in-person schooling last fall. tive-than-expected FOMC communications and an eas- ing of concerns around the economic effects of the The U.S. international trade deficit widened at the end Omicron variant. Those factors also contributed to no- of last year. Imports of goods rose sharply in November table rises in 2-, 5-, and 10-year nominal Treasury yields. and December, led by increases in consumer goods, Inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation- while exports of goods were little changed over the two Protected Securities rose slightly, on net. months, on net, after surging in October. Shipping con- gestion and other bottlenecks continued to restrain the Broad equity indexes decreased markedly, on net, partic- level of trade in goods. Meanwhile, services exports ularly in the latter part of the intermeeting period, as jumped in November, reflecting a sizable increase in ex- shifts in expectations about the pace of monetary policy ports of travel services after the reopening of U.S. bor- tightening, global inflationary pressures, and escalating ders to vaccinated foreign travelers early in the month. tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighed on equity Even so, services trade was very low relative to pre-pan- prices. The one-month option-implied volatility on the demic norms, largely because the level of international S&P 500—the VIX—increased considerably, on net, to travel remained depressed. above the 90th percentile of its historical distribution. Incoming data suggested that foreign economic growth Spreads of investment- and speculative-grade corporate picked up in the fourth quarter of 2021 as economies in bonds widened modestly. Spreads of municipal bonds emerging Asia bounced back from lockdowns in the were roughly unchanged. third quarter induced by the Delta variant of the Short-term funding markets were stable over the inter- COVID-19 virus. Purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) meeting period. The effective federal funds rate and the pointed to improved supplier delivery times, and foreign Secured Overnight Financing Rate generally held steady vehicle production rose notably, suggesting that supply at 8 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively. Partic- bottlenecks continued to ease somewhat. However, the ipation in ON RRP operations averaged $1.6 trillion, rapid spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed pub- about $150 billion higher than during the previous inter- lic health restrictions in several countries, particularly in meeting period, and reached an all-time high of $1.9 tril- China, and appeared to be weighing on activity at the lion at year-end. Government money market funds con- start of the year. Inflation abroad continued to rise, tinued to receive investment inflows and accounted for mostly driven by further increases in retail energy prices, the majority of ON RRP take-up. effects from supply bottlenecks, and, in some emerging market economies (EMEs), by rising food prices. That Over the intermeeting period, movements in foreign as- set prices responded to waning concerns about the Omi- said, input and output price components of PMIs pro- vided some tentative signs that easing supply constraints cron variant’s potential economic effects and firming have started to contribute to some letup in inflationary views that monetary accommodation in several ad- pressures in several foreign economies. vanced economies will be removed at a faster pace than previously expected. Some market participants also Staff Review of the Financial Situation pointed to rising geopolitical tensions related to Russia Over the intermeeting period, easing concerns around as contributing to the moves. On net, AFE sovereign the economic effects of the Omicron variant and FOMC yields increased notably, most major foreign equity in- communications that were viewed as less accommoda- dexes declined moderately, and the broad dollar index tive than expected contributed to increases in Treasury decreased modestly. EME sovereign spreads widened, yields. Long-term sovereign yields in AFEs also rose no- and capital flows into EME-dedicated bond funds re- tably. Broad domestic equity indexes decreased mark- mained slightly negative, while flows into EME equity edly, and spreads of corporate bonds widened modestly. funds turned positive.
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