MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne

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MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
CANADIAN
MILITAR
 JOURNAL
         Y
        Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                    							CONTENTS

                                                   3     EDITOR’S CORNER

                                                   MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
                                                   4     The 21st Century Wright Flier: The Military Implications of Affordable Access
                                                         to Space
 Cover                                                       by Cole F. Petersen
 Candidates on the DP1 Gunner
 Course conduct anti-tank drills                   MILITARY PHILOSOPHY
 as part of their final evaluation                 13    e-Thinking: Pre-Empting Global Instability in the 21st Century
 before ‘getting badged’ and wel-                           by Eric Dion
 comed into the Royal Regiment
 of Artillery family at Canadian                   FORCE STRUCTURE
 Forces Base Gagetown,                             19    The Canadian Army Needs a Paradigm Shift
 Oromocto, New Brunswick,
                                                            by Wolfgang W. Riedel
 25 July 2019.
 DND photo GN04-2019-0721-061
                                                   LAW AND ORDER
 by Corporal Geneviève Lapointe
                                                   35    Cultural Property Protection and the Canadian Armed Forces
                                                            by Mark Blondeau

                                                   LEADERSHIP AND MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
                                                   47    Leadership within NATO: Canada’s 2018 Chairing of the NATO Military
                                                         Intelligence Committee
                                                             by Nicholas Dunning

                                                   VIEWS AND OPINIONS
                                                   55    In Limbo: The 22nd Battalion (French-Canadian), from Demobilization
                                                         to Integration into the Permanent Force
The 21st Century Wright                                      by Michel Litalien
Flyer: The Military                                61    Mental Health is Not Just a Challenge for War Heroes: Sometimes
Implications of Affordable                               Average People Need Help, Too
Access to Space                                             by Nathan Packer

                                                   COMMENTARY
                                                   65    All Quiet on the Northern Front?
                                                             by Martin Shadwick
                                                   72    Book Reviews

e-Thinking: Pre-Empting
Global Instability in the
21st Century

  Canadian Military Journal/Revue militaire canadienne is the official professional journal of the Canadian Armed Forces and the Department of
  National Defence. It is published quarterly under authority of the Minister of National Defence. Opinions expressed or implied in this publication are
  those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of National Defence, the Canadian Armed Forces, Canadian Military
  Journal, or any agency of the Government of Canada. Crown copyright is retained. Articles may be reproduced with permission of the Editor, on
  condition that appropriate credit is given to Canadian Military Journal. Each issue of the Journal is published simultaneously in print and electronic
  versions; it is available on the Internet at www.journal.forces.gc.ca.

          ISSN 1492-465X

 Canadian Military Journal              • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                                 1
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
CANADIAN
  How to Contact Us
   Canadian Military Journal
 PO Box 17000, Station Forces
                                                   MILITARY            JOURNAL
      Kingston, Ontario
                                                                 www.journal.forces.gc.ca
     CANADA, K7K 7B4
 E-mail: cmj.rmc@forces.gc.ca
                                              Editor-in-Chief                                                 Translation
                                                  David L. Bashow                                            Translation Bureau,
                                              (613) 541-5010 ext. 6148                             Public Services and Procurement Canada
                                                 bashow-d@rmc.ca

                                        Publication Manager                                                  Commentary
                                                   Claire Chartrand                                             Martin Shadwick
                                              (613) 541-5010 ext. 6837
                                               claire.chartrand@rmc.ca

                                                                          Editorial Advisor
                                                                                   Michael Boire

Text
The Canadian Army
Needs a Paradigm Shift                                                Oversight Committee

                                                                                 Chairman

                                                   Rear-Admiral L. Cassivi, Commander, Canadian Defence Academy (CDA)

                                                                                  Members

                                       Mr. David L. Bashow, Editor-in-Chief,                     Brigadier-General S. Bouchard, Commandant
                                         Canadian Military Journal (CMJ)                          Royal Military College of Canada (RMC)

                                       Colonel Marty Cournoyer, representing                            Major Chris Young, representing
                                            Chief of the Air Staff (CAS)                                 Chief of Staff Army Strategy

                                             Dr. H.J. Kowal, Principal,                                Lieutenant-Colonel Brent Clute,
                                      Royal Military College of Canada (RMC)                    Director Canadian Forces Military Law Centre
                                                                                                (CFMLC), Canadian Defence Academy (CDA)
                                      Captain (N) David Patchell, representing
Text                                      Chief of the Naval Staff (CNS)                         Ms. Hanya Soliman, representing Chief of the
Cultural Property                                                                                        Defence Intelligence (CDI)
Protection and the
Canadian Armed Forces
                                                                            Editorial Board

                                                  Dr. Douglas Bland                                           Professor Hamish Ion
                                             Major (ret’d) Michael Boire                                        Philippe Lagassé
                                                 Dr. Andrea Charron                                  Lieutenant-Colonel (ret’d) David Last
                                    Lieutenant-Colonel (ret’d) Douglas Delaney                                  Dr. Chris Madsen
                                     Chief Petty Officer 1st Class Mike Dionne                                  Dr. Sean Maloney
                                                 Dr. Rocky J. Dwyer                                        Professor Brian McKercher
                                   Lieutenant-Colonel (ret’d) Michael Goodspeed                                 Dr. Paul Mitchell
                                        Major-General (ret’d) Daniel Gosselin                                    Dr. Nezih Mrad
                                               Major Tanya Grodzinski                                          Dr. Scot Robertson
Text
Leadership   within                                 Dr. David Hall                                         Professor Stéphane Roussel
NATO: Canada’s 2018                          Professor Michael Hennessy                                      Professor Elinor Sloan
Chairing of the NATO                         Colonel (ret’d) Bernd Horn                                 Colonel (ret’d) Randall Wakelam
Military Intelligence
Committee
                                                                    NOT E TO R E A D ER S
                                As a bilingual journal, readers should take note that where citations are translated from their original language, the
                                abbreviation [TOQ] at the end of the note, which stands for “translation of original quote”, indicates to the readers
                                that the original citation can be found in the published version of the Journal in the other official language.

2                                                Canadian Military Journal                      • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
Editor’s Corner

W
                   elcome to the Spring 2020 edition of the            image of the Canadian ‘Pearsonian’ diplomatic and peacekeeping
                   Canadian Military Journal. As I pen these           legacy.” To that end, the author then examines the opportunities
                   words, (27 January), and while we are still         and responsibilities associated with Cultural Property Protection
                   very much in the throes of winter, my dear          for Canada, and offers a potential policy model for the Canadian
                   wife photographed three robins in one               Armed Forces.
of the maple trees in our deep snow-covered back yard this
morning. Good luck finding some worms this early, fellas!                   Finally, in our major article section, Defence Policy Advisor
                                                                       Nicholas Dunning within the Domains and Technology Policy
      Again, we have cobbled together quite a varied selection of      Directorate at National Defence, reviews Canada’s service
articles in this edition. Taking the point, infantry officer Major     and experience as the Chair of NATO’s Military Intelligence
Cole Petersen chronicles the rapid development of relatively-          Committee (MIC) in 2018. The author maintains: “Chairing the
cheap, reusable rockets for use in space, and how this recent          MIC provided Canada an elevated international profile in the intel-
initiative, generated by commercial industry, “…will lead to the       ligence community. Through this platform, Canada demonstrated
rapid expansion of military presence in space, establishing the        multinational leadership within NATO by leading intelligence
economic feasibility of space-based military operations for state      reforms that improved the Alliance’s ability to achieve accelerated
and non-state actors.” Next, Professor Eric Dion advances the          decision-making in support of planning, operations, and political
opinion that contemporary or innovative thinking, which he refers      decision-making.”
to as e-Thinking, is absolutely imperative in order to pre-empt
global instability in the 21st Century. “The Allies, as we refer to         Two very different opinion pieces in this issue… In the first,
the 20 percent of the world’s population living in the Occident,       Michel Litalien, the manager of the Canadian Armed Forces
have essentially been avoiding major wars at all cost, preventa-       Museums Network at the Directorate of History and Heritage, and
tively engaging in our world. Our interest fundamentally rests         a doctoral student in military history at Paul-Valéry University in
in stable socio-economic conditions for our way of life. In the        Montpellier, France, conducts an exploratory review of a brief-
21st Century, National Security and Global Defence is really about     but-uncertain period in the history of Canada’s fabled Royal
pre-empting instability.”                                              22nd Regiment, the Van Doos, pride of French-speaking Canada,
                                                                       from its demobilization in Montréal in May 1919, until its inte-
     Moving right along, Colonel (ret’d) Wolfgang Riedel, who          gration into Canada’s Permanent Force in April 1920. Litalien is
had a rich and varied 44-year career in both the Regular Force         followed by a very candid and courageous recounting by Combat
and the Reserve Force as an artillery officer, infantry officer, and   Engineer Major Nathan Packer of his own personal experiences
ultimately, as a legal officer, firmly believes that the Canadian      with PTSD, including the excellent help and support he received
Army is definitely not ready for the next major conflict, nor does     from many supportive entities, and an entreaty to other mem-
it project a credible deterrence. Therefore, he believes, “Canada      bers not to suffer in silence, to get the help that is available and
must re-assess what the Canadian Army’s structure ought to be,         non-judgemental, because Nathan believes it can “…make all of
and, in particular, critically examine the role and organization       the difference in the world.”
of the Army’s Primary Reserve component.” He is followed by
career intelligence officer Lieutenant-Commander Mark Blondeau              Next, our dedicated defence commentator, Martin Shadwick,
explores the world of cultural property, and more specifically, the    examines Canada’s historical position with respect to Arctic
conventions adopted by the international community with respect        sovereignty and security, and how the incumbent Trudeau gov-
to Cultural Property Protection. These are enshrined in the 1954       ernment intends to deal with it. Many issues abound. However,
Hague Convention for the Protection of Cultural Property in            in Martin’s words, “In the final analysis, North Warning System
the Event of Armed Conflict, and its two subsequent Protocols.         replacement, a revamped NORAD, and the future shape of Arctic
These Conventions, to which Canada acceded in 1998, which              search and rescue are very different policy topics, but make no
were borne out of the experiences of the Second World War (The         mistake – Arctic sovereignty and security issues, concerns, and
Monuments Men), and built upon more than a century of preceding        controversies are about to return to the Canadian political, media,
treaty and Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC) instruments, clearly          and public landscape.”
articulates the ethical foundation ‘…that damage to cultural
property belonging to any people whatsoever means damage to                 Finally, we close with a clutch of four very different book
the cultural heritage of all mankind, since each people makes its      reviews, which we hope will pique the interest of our readership.
contribution to the culture of the world.’ Blondeau believes: “This
ethical foundation resonates profoundly with a multi-cultural          Until the next time.
and globally-engaged Canada – it gels squarely with our liberal                                                        David L. Bashow
democratic ideals enshrined in such institutions as the Canadian
                                                                                                                        Editor-in-Chief
Charter of Rights and Freedoms (1982), and the much-vaunted
                                                                                                               Canadian Military Journal

Canadian Military Journal           • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                       3
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
Hilar y Morgan/Alamy Stock Photo/FWYM9B

                                          The first controlled, powered, and sustained heavier-than-air human flight, on 17 December 1903, four miles south of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina,
                                          by the Wright brothers.

                                          The 21st Century Wright Flier: The Military
                                          Implications of Affordable Access to Space
                                                                                                  by Cole F. Petersen

                                               Major Cole F. Petersen is an infantry officer with the Princess      will lead to the rapid expansion of military presence in space,
                                          Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry (PPCLI). He has served in              establishing the economic feasibility of space-based military
                                          1 PPCLI, 3 PPCLI, and HQ 1 Canadian Mechanized Brigade                    operations for state and non-state actors.
                                          Group (CMBG), and is a graduate of the United States Marine
                                          Corps Command and Staff College and the School of Advanced                     This rapid expansion will inevitably draw in the Canadian
                                          Warfighting. He is currently the Executive Assistant to the               Armed Forces (CAF), which currently possess only a relatively-
                                          Commander of Canadian Special Operations Forces Command                   modest military space capability. The Directorate of Space,
                                          (CANSOFCOM).                                                              established in 2011, conducts force generation of astronauts for
                                                                                                                    service with the US, manages force development and policy,
                                          Introduction                                                              and conducts force employment for Canadian Joint Operations

                                          T
                                                                                                                    Command (CJOC) through the Canadian Space Operations Centre.2
                                                        he 15 years between the first successful flight             Canadian military operations in space generally work through those
                                                        of an aircraft and the end of the First World War           of its allies, and consist largely of satellite support to the joint
                                                        (1903-1918) featured the development of most                force. But with the 21st Century Wright Flier – cheap, reusable
                                                        facets of modern air power, and the establish-              rockets currently making trips to space – the near-future demand
                                                        ment of the world’s first independent air force,            will exist for the CAF to expand its capability and capacity to oper-
                                          Great Britain’s Royal Air Force.1 The Wright Flier was a clear            ate in space to be capable of meeting future security challenges.
                                          harbinger of, among many things, change to the way wars are
                                          fought. The space age began shortly after the Second World                Background
                                          War, but it is only now, with recent developments by civilian
                                          industry, that the costs of access to space will be reduced to
                                          the point where rapid advances in space power will occur on
                                          a scale similar to the experience of airpower advancement
                                                                                                                    T   his expansion of capability and capacity in space for
                                                                                                                        Canada portended by cheap, reusable rockets represents
                                                                                                                    what the American theorist, space journalist, and historian Jim
                                          between 1903 and 1918. Over the next 15 years, the devel-                 Oberg describes as the fourth and final phase of a maturation
                                          opment of cheaper, reusable rockets by commercial industry                process for technology, namely ubiquitous use. In this phase,

                                          4                                                              Canadian Military Journal             • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
the technology becomes so pervasive that it is regarded as             first to service the International Space Station (2012), and the
simple and routine. In that regard, Oberg contends that space          first manufacturer – civilian or government – to produce a rocket
power went through its first phase, discovery, in the late-            capable of returning to earth and being relaunched into space
19th and early-20th Centuries embodied in the work of rocket           (2015-2016).9 Other companies in the civilian sector are follow-
pioneers, such as the Russian rocket scientist and pioneer of          ing the lead of SpaceX, including Rocket Lab and Vector Space
astronautic theory, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, and the distin-            Systems, and are in the midst of developing lightweight rockets
guished American physicist Robert H. Goddard, who is credited          capable of sending smaller payloads into orbit with higher fre-
with creating the world’s first liquid-fueled rocket. The second       quency, and at a reduced cost.10 These and others are developing
stage, application, was ushered in with the development of             technologies that will push the weight-to-cost ratio for travel into
rockets as military tools during the 1930s through the 1950s.          space to about $10,000 per pound, and perhaps lower, or 10% of
The current stage, acceptance, has been the norm since the             the cost of the Space Shuttle program, and about 20-25% less than
1960s, with the establishment of satellites and Intercontinental       the current market’s space service corporations, such as United
Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) as not merely a novelty, but as an          Launch Alliance or Orbital ATK.11
integral part of the superpower military arsenal.3
                                                                          In the next 15 years, general availability of rockets that move
     The dawn of the acceptance stage followed shortly after the material into space at a cost 10% or lower than current prices will
Soviet Union, in attempting to overcome the U.S advantage in eliminate a barrier and create the effect described by Oberg as
long-range bombers, succeeded in developing rocket technology “…easy access to space by second and third-tier players, whether
and placed the Sputnik 1 satellite into space.4 Subsumed by Cold governmental or non-governmental, whose presence would at the
War politics, space technology was quickly developed by both the very least complicate, and at worst endanger, current activities.”12
United States and the Soviet Union to deploy an array of satellites The high cost of space access has generally restricted the scale of
and intercontinental ballistic missiles to support their strategic military activities in space to those states with fairly predictable
approaches and operational capabilities. Today, space operations policies and agendas. As costs go down, however, and launch
in the form of satellite support to surveillance and communications facilities on Earth proliferate, the conditions for ubiquitous military
are considered so essential that a former US Air                                          use of space by state and possibly non-state
Force Chief of Staff claimed their loss would                                             actors will flourish. Canada will inevitably
mean, “…you go back to the Industrial Age.”5                                              need to join this rush of new actors in space.
Space operations are therefore accepted as the         “Space operations are
norm for those states that can afford to both           therefore accepted as                   The projected future state of expanded
generate and sustain them.                                                                military use of space creates security issues for
                                                          the norm for those
                                                                                          states, in particular, for those states that rely
     This norm is restricted and limited by             states  that can afford           on the stability of the current paradigm of how
what Oberg terms the “…impediments to the                  to both generate               space is used (and by whom) to support ter-
exercise of space power,” which he sees as                                                restrial military operations. For example, this
                                                          and sustain them.”
launch costs, launch bottlenecks (physical                                                future state will greatly expand the ability of
facilities from which to launch), hazards of                                              actors to neutralize or defeat their adversary’s
the space environment, and socio-political atti-                                          space-based satellites networks by putting
tudes towards the use of space for military purposes.6 Of these, anti-satellite systems into space with ease. Moreover, this future
launch costs are the “primary inhibitor of expanded commercial, state will promote greater use of space, due to the proliferation of
private, and even governmental activities in space.”7 The Space cheap delivery systems. What takes sealift days and airlift hours
Shuttle program, designed to make travel to and from space a to do will be economically possible in minutes by cheap, reusable
routine affair, cost some $500 million dollars (all costs in USD) rockets. The future state will also create increased competition
per launch, or a cost-to-weight ratio of about $50,000 dollars per for dominance of key areas of the Earth-Moon system to provide
pound. With the retirement of the Space Shuttle program, however, assured access for space systems. If this future state becomes a
both government and civilian organizations now rely upon large reality in 15 years, what will a future conflict scenario look like,
commercial firms for rocket services, with costs remaining high at and how can countries such as Canada prepare to deal with it?
$42,000 dollars per pound.8
                                                                       The Future State
      That said, in the next 15 years, emerging technological
developments have the potential to undercut this high cost-to-
weight ratio, changing the concept of the norm for movement from
Earth to space, and transitioning military space technology into
                                                                       A     ny discussion of the future state of the military use of
                                                                             space must begin with an understanding of the space
                                                                       environment, how it is currently used, and how changing tech-
the fourth phase of ubiquitous use. SpaceX, the current industry       nology will affect future use. For military purposes, the area
leader, founded in 2002, has achieved numerous milestones in           of space that the Earth-Moon system occupies can be divided
its efforts to revolutionize rocket technology. Indeed, it is the      into four regions.
first commercial enterprise to send a rocket into orbit (2008),
the first to return a spacecraft from low-earth orbit (2010), the

Canadian Military Journal           • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                       5
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
Within these regions,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 satellite operations, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 principal form of space opera-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 tion, currently occur almost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 exclusively in the second,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 circumterrestrial region,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 which can be subdivided
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 into four orbital zones (see
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Diagram 2). Low Earth Orbit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 lies between the end of the
D i a g r a m a d a p t e d f r o m J o h n M . C o l l i n s , M i l i t a r y S p a c e Fo r c e s : T h e N ex t 5 0 Ye a r s .

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Earth’s atmosphere (100 kilo-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 metres) and the inner edge of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 the Van Allen radiation belts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (480 kilometres). Medium
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Earth orbit stretches from the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 start of the Van Allen radia-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 tion belts to Geosynchronous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Orbit (480 kilometres
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 to 35,700 kilometres).
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Geosynchronous Orbit fills
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 a very small area where
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 orbiting satellites can match
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 the rotation of the Earth’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 axis, making it possible to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 lock them into a geosynchro-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 nous orbit, that is, passing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 the same location at the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 same time each day, or
                                                                                                                                     Diagram 1 – Regions of Earth-Moon System.13                                                                 a geostationary orbit,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                remaining over the same
                                                                                                                                           The first region is the Earth and its atmosphere, which           location. Anything beyond Geosynchronous Orbit is con-
                                                                                                                                     reaches from the Earth’s surface to 100 kilometres above it, or         sidered High Earth Orbit, which extends to limit of
                                                                                                                                     the distance where frictional heat strongly affects movement and        circumterrestrial space (80,000 kilometres).15
                                                                                                                                     re-entry to Earth. On top of
                                                                                                                                     this region is circumterrestrial
                                                                                                                                     space, reaching from 100 kilo-
                                                                                                                                     metres to 80,000 kilometres
                                                                                                                                     from Earth, and encompassing
                                                                                                                                     an area heavily influenced by
                                                                                                                                     Earth’s gravitational and mag-
                                                                                                                                     netic fields. The third region,
                                                                                                                                     the Moon and its environs,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  D i a g r a m a d a p t e d f r o m J o h n M . C o l l i n s , M i l i t a r y S p a c e Fo r c e s : Th e N ex t 5 0 Ye a r s , p. 17
                                                                                                                                     stretches from 80,000 kilo-
                                                                                                                                     metres to 770,000 kilometres
                                                                                                                                     from Earth, and defines an area
                                                                                                                                     where the dominant aspect is
                                                                                                                                     the interplay of the gravita-
                                                                                                                                     tional aspects of the Sun, the
                                                                                                                                     Moon, and other space bodies.
                                                                                                                                     The final region of space, the
                                                                                                                                     outer envelope, encompasses
                                                                                                                                     anything beyond 770,000 kilo-
                                                                                                                                     metres, an arbitrary distance
                                                                                                                                     set at twice the distance from
                                                                                                                                     Earth to the Moon, where
                                                                                                                                     the dominant physical forces
                                                                                                                                     become those of the Sun and
                                                                                                                                     other solar bodies.14

                                                                                                                                                                      Diagram 2 – Earth’s Orbital Zones.16

                                                                                                                                     6                                                             Canadian Military Journal          • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
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MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
     Satellite operations primarily occur in the Low Earth and               networks that operate therein, it will also reduce the costs and
Geosynchronous Orbits, and these regions are already quite clut-             difficulty of maintaining satellites, providing resiliency to net-
tered. The Union of Concerned Scientists tracks commercial and               works. Along with low cost rockets, miniaturization, and cheaper
military activity, and has identified 2,062 active satellites orbiting       access to space will reduce the costs of satellites. For example,
the Earth as of early-2019. Of these, just under half (43%) are              the newest Iridium Next communication satellites weigh almost
American owned, with 304 of these being military or govern-                  1,900 pounds each, and cost over $27 million per satellite.23
ment satellites. China operates 299 active satellites, while Russia          Satellites of this size and cost are gradually being replaced by what
has 153.17 Along with these operational satellites, there are over           are termed small satellites, weighing under 400 pounds, which are
20,000 other pieces of space debris larger than a softball, such             increasing in capability, and constitute the fastest growing share
as inoperative satellites or pieces of used rockets, that further            of the satellite market.24
clutter circumterrestrial space and threaten to damage or destroy
operational systems currently in orbit.18                                        In a future state where circumterrestrial space is more
                                                                            cluttered, and the prospect for satellite network interference is
      Satellite operations in this cluttered environment are                greater, small satellites launched from cheaper, reusable rockets
critical to terrestrial military operations for their ability to enhance    offer users a cheaper, easier way to sustain operational capabil-
reconnaissance, early warning, communications, and remotely-                ity and capacity. The big, expensive, and vulnerable networks
piloted vehicle operations. Consequently, militaries are conceiving         described by Robert Work will become small, inexpensive, and
of ways to degrade adversary satellite networks as part of war              easy to replace. In the future, when faced with a compromised
planning. In response to what former American Deputy Defense                satellite network due to willful attack or unintentional mishap,
Secretary Robert Work called a “…big, expensive, enormously                 a state like Canada will be able to quickly regenerate its GPS/
capable, but enormously vulnerable” American satellite network,             GNSS, surveillance, or communications network by the launch of
the U.S. has recently undertaken efforts to strengthen its defences         rockets with dozens, if not hundreds of small satellites to “reseed”
against potential anti-satellite (ASAT) attacks.19 Nevertheless,            orbit and bring operations back on line. The implication is that,
there is nowhere to hide objects in space from observation, and             in the future, states will possess, or contract, ready reserves of
with ASAT capabilities proliferating, protecting military satellite         small satellites to be launched into space by military or corporate
networks may prove to be a serious challenge.                                                    rockets to maintain critical, vulnerable satellite
                                                                                                 networks. Cheap, reusable rockets will enable
      While militaries must consider how to                                                      states to “regenerate” their satellites as fast as
work around degraded satellite capability,                “Satellite       operations            adversaries could take them out.
civilian satellite operations are equally vul-
                                                         primarily    occur in the
nerable, and perhaps, less resilient.20 Many                                                     While rocket technology will mean
civilian functions are dependent upon the                     Low Earth and                 increased flights of cargo from Earth to space
American Global Positioning System (GPS),                   Geosynchronous                  to sustain satellite networks, the same tech-
the world’s principal Global Navigational                                                   nology also provides for the possibility for
                                                            Orbits, and these
Satellite System (GNSS) network, for its pre-                                               using Low Earth Orbit as a highway for orbital
cise time tracking ability to drive commerce,              regions are already              mobility. Cheaper rockets that can land and
traffic control, and communications on a global              quite cluttered.”              be reused can become rockets which can be
scale. A loss of GPS/GNSS timing could affect                                               loaded with supplies, equipment, or person-
stock markets, automatic bank machines, cel-                                                nel, launched through Low Earth Orbit, and
lular phone towers, traffic light systems, air                                              accurately and safely landed, all in a more cost-
traffic control, and power distribution, potentially grinding critical effective manner. Low Earth Orbit will become a new orbital line
civilian infrastructure and financial transactions to a halt.21         of communication, to be used by military forces in conjunction
                                                                        with the traditional ground, air, and sea lines of communication,
      Cheaper, reusable rockets will expand access to the and will take only minutes to move large amounts of materiel
circumterrestrial region to more actors, making civilian and around the globe.
military satellite networks more vulnerable to intentional or unin-
tentional interference. While ASAT operations are traditionally              Surface-to-surface rocket transit through Low Earth Orbit is
envisioned as the launch of missiles to physically destroy satellites, being pioneered by SpaceX and its Mars Rocket program, now des-
there are other ways to attack satellite networks, such as using space ignated as the “Starship” (and previously designated the “BFR”).
vehicles to interfere, subtly damage, or jam adversary satellites.22 The Starship is the follow-on development to the Falcon Heavy
Interference does not even need to be intentional, or require the rocket, which conducted its maiden flight in February 2018. The
use of purpose-built ASAT platforms. Increased activity in orbit Falcon Heavy rocket, capable of lifting 64 metric tons (just over
creates increased chances of mishaps and the creation of space 140,000 pounds) into space, will be the most powerful rocket in
debris, which, travelling at high velocities, can damage satellites operation by a factor of two.25 The Starship’s capability will dwarf
and create a cascading effect of debris. With the lowering cost of the Falcon Heavy, and SpaceX owner Elon Musk announced in
space access, the capability to interfere with satellite networks can September 2017 that he intends to land a BFR-supported spacecraft
conceivably proliferate to second- and third-tier space powers, or with human explorers on Mars by the year 2022. The Starship
even to non-state actors.                                               will dwarf any rocket ever built, with the potential ability to be
                                                                        continuously refueled and reused to move up to 150 metric tons
      While cheap, reusable rockets will open circumterrestrial or over 330,000 pounds into orbit for each launch.26
space to more actors, thus increasing the vulnerability of satellite

Canadian Military Journal              • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                            7
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
Musk also advertised the ability of the Starship to conduct       The military implications of this technological
                                                                                                                         surface-to-surface transit on Earth. By moving through Low development are self-evident. As SpaceX’s pioneering work
                                                                                                                         Earth Orbit at a speed of 27,000 kilometres per hour, the Starship matures, military forces will be able to conduct logistics
                                                                                                                         could deliver cargo or passengers anywhere on the Earth in less through Low Earth Orbit. The Starship is planned to be capable
                                                                                                                         than one hour. Space pioneer and commentator Sam Dinkin of moving from 100+ metric tons, to possibly 150 metric tons
                                                                                                                         conducted a cost analysis of Musk’s concept of moving almost (330,000 pounds), of cargo. 150 metric tons is the equivalent to just
                                                                                                                         900 passengers and crew, a number similar                                           under two C-177 Globemaster loads, or one-
                                                                                                                         to the Airbus A380 that Musk claimed his                                            and-a- half C-5 Galaxy loads.29 A RAND study
                                                                                                                         Starship-powered shuttle could hold. While                                          looking at airlift requirements to deploy a US
                                                                                                                         reduced costs for the proposed BFR would not         “While using rockets           Army Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT)
                                                                                                                         materialize until a mature industry can develop         for administrative          estimated that 239 C-17 equivalents would
                                                                                                                         over the next 10-20 years (the timeframe of the   movement of personnel             be required to deploy an SBCT, three days of
                                                                                                                         future state being examined), Dinkin estimated                                      supplies, and debarkation sustainment.30 In
                                                                                                                         that a BFR could be procured at costs similar          and material is one          the future state, rocket replenishment could
                                                                                                                         to a A380, and could move passengers for just          possible avenue of           deploy a similar sized formation anywhere on
                                                                                                                         over one million dollars per trip, or $1,200 per                                    the planet with 108 flights, each with a flight
                                                                                                                                                                                 development, the
                                                                                                                         customer.27 Use of an orbital line of commu-                                        time of 30-45 minutes. While 108 flights are
                                                                                                                         nication with maturing rocket technology will         tactical deployment           likely an excessive demand, the movement of
                                                                                                                         enable terrestrial movement that takes days by         of combat forces is          a medium-weight armoured brigade provides a
                                                                                                                         ship and hours by aircraft to be completed in                                       useful reference point for movement capacity.
                                                                                                                                                                               another possibility.”
                                                                                                                         minutes by a rocket.                                                                Using the previous example of 900 personnel,
                                                                                                                                                                                                             deployment of the personnel of an infantry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               battalion to its prepositioned
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               equipment stocks can be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               accomplished in a single lift.
                          U s e d w i t h p e r m i s s i o n b y S p a c e X / h tt p : / / w w w. s p a c ex . c o m

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               This illustrates how reusable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rockets such as the SpaceX
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Starship can transform
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               surface-to-surface movement
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               of materiel through Low
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Earth Orbit.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     While using rockets for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                administrative movement of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                personnel and material is one
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                possible avenue of develop-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ment, the tactical deployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                of combat forces is another
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                possibility. This is not a new
                                                                                                                         Diagram 3 – SpaceX Rockets Compared to Other Successful Rockets.28                                     or novel idea, as the concept
D N D p h o t o FA 2 012 - 10 0 7- 01 b y S e r g e a n t R o n F l y n n

                                                                                                                         A C-177 Globemaster III.

                                                                                                                         8                                                           Canadian Military Journal       • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITAR Y JOURNAL Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020 - Revue militaire canadienne
MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
                                                                                                                                           of orbital deployment of soldiers has long existed, not only in               Among these five points, the fourth and fifth points of
                                                                                                                                           science fiction, but in military concept organizations. The US           liberation (L4 and L5) which exist at a 60 degree angle ahead of
                                                                                                                                           Marine Corps launched the Small Unit Space Transport and                 and behind the moon in its orbit, are considered to be potentially
                                                                                                                                           Insertion (SUSTAIN) project in 2003, which aimed to move a               key terrain. Their decisive impact stems from the fact that objects
                                                                                                                                           13-Marine squad with equipment anywhere on the Earth on                  located at these points can maintain a stable orbit with minimal
                                                                                                                                           a small tactical landing craft.31 It conceptualizes the launch of a      energy, observe the obverse sides of both the Earth and the Moon,
                                                                                                                                           landing craft from another vehicle, moving through sub-orbital           and occupy the exit of the gravity wells for both these bodies.33
                                                                                                                                           space to get to its objective, and by-passing national airspace issues   By ‘looking down’ the gravity well of both bodies of the Earth-
                                                                                                                                           to get to its objective area. Although conceptually different than       Moon system, a weaponized satellite or station theoretically ‘holds
                                                                                                                                           the orbital travel enabled by reusable rockets, it is conceivable        the high ground’ of that system, for it expends less energy and
                                                                                                                                           that a tactical landing vehicle could be designed for mounting on        can gain greater acceleration with equal input than an adversary
                                                                                                                                           a rocket, to be deployed from space, and landing dozens, if not          approaching from the some place within the gravity well.
                                                                                                                                           hundreds, of soldiers or marines in a form of “orbital assault.”
                                                                                                                                           Orbital quick reaction or special operations deployments could                Control of this ‘high ground’ in exo-atmospheric space could
                                                                                                                                           be made around the globe in thirty minutes.                              be exerted by denying access to the Earth-Moon system by ‘attack-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ing from above’ any space vehicle trying to move up from the
                                                                                                                                                In a future state where there is utility in orbital lines of        surface of Earth (or, conceivably, the Moon). Weapon systems
                                                                                                                                           communication for surface-to-surface travel and an increasing            located in the L4 and L5 positions have the advantage of detect-
                                                                                                                                           density of traffic in circumterrestrial space for satellite operations   ing movement and launching some sort of attack with, as opposed
                                                                                                                                           and maintenance, space control will become an essential element          to against, gravity’s pull. They are also above the most useful
                                                                                                                                           in military planning, just as air control is at present. Like areas      orbits, Low Earth and Geosynchronous, for satellite networks. To
                                                                                                                                           on the Earth, the Earth-Moon system has some ‘key terrain,’ or           date, the pursuit of space weapons has been relatively latent: the
                                                                                                                                           areas that give the force occupying them a marked advantage in           concepts exist, but the desire to execute them has not. A recent
                                                                                                                                           a confrontation. While space has no cardinal directions or ter-          study by space, security, and defence experts Wilson Wong and
                                                                                                                                           rain, there are key points in the Earth-Moon system that could be        James Fergusson determined that, so far, “…the great cost involved
                                                                                                                                           considered distinctive, if not decisive, due the impact of gravity.      with turning the orbit-to-surface concept into a credible deterrent,”
                                                                                                                                           These are known as the liberation points, or the points at which         and “…the ease at which a low orbiting satellite may be found
                                                                                                                                           the gravitational forces of two bodies balances out to create a          (and attacked)” has meant that most weapons are better off (and
                                                                                                                                           stable orbit, of which there are five for any two celestial bodies.      cheaper) if maintained on Earth.34 Anticipation of an increasingly-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         busier circumterrestrial region
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         of space could lead to a change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         in outlook on space weapons,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         with the L4 and L5 points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         representing the ideal loca-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         tion to overlook activity in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Earth-Moon system.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Space weapons to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          secure gravitationally-key
D i a g r a m a d a p t e d f r o m J o h n M . C o l l i n s , M i l i t a r y S p a c e Fo r c e s : Th e N ex t 5 0 Ye a r s , p. 2 0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ‘terrain,’ along with traffic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          along orbital lines of com-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          munication and an increase in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          satellite operations, represent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          aspects of a projected future
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          state caused by expanded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          military and civilian use of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          space. This change in poten-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          tial future warfare is driven by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          lower-cost, reusable rockets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          currently being pioneered by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          companies such as SpaceX,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and have serious potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          to create new security issues
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and changes to the paradigm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          of how space is used, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          who uses it. Countries such
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          as Canada, currently oper-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ating on the periphery of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          space operating nations, will
                                                                                                                                           Diagram 4 – Lunar Liberation Points (L).32                                                                     soon find itself required to

                                                                                                                                           Canadian Military Journal              • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                        9
maintain a permanent and expanded presence                                                 If cheap, reusable rockets as the hub to
             in low-Earth orbit to maintain adequate                                               enable future space development represents the
             defensive capabilities.                                “A busier, more                future state 15 years out, three critical impli-
                                                                 crowded Earth-Moon                cations and their effects upon military space
             Implications                                                                          operations must be considered now. First and
                                                                system will mean that
                                                                                                   foremost, the ‘genie is out of the bottle,’ and

             N     othing in the changes in how space
                   is used and who uses it described
             herein is based upon new-or-novel concepts.
                                                                the clash of merchant
                                                                and guardian interests
                                                                                                   the Earth-Moon system will lose its 70-year
                                                                                                   status as the preserve of governments and a
                                                                                                   few large corporations. Just as the Spanish
             Commercial rocket services, satellite min-         will occur at the state            claim to the Caribbean as a sort of ‘Spanish
             iaturization, space stations, civilian space          and global levels,              Lake’ was broken by the official and unofficial
             travel, space weapons, and the belief of a              increasing the                seafarers of rival nations during the 16th and
             progressively-greater presence of humanity                                            17th Centuries, SpaceX has created the condi-
             outside the confines of Earth are all ideas            requirement for                tions where smaller states and companies can
             that have been present in the literature of         accommodation and                 access, compete, and develop their potential in
             space for decades. What is new is SpaceX’s        coordination regarding              space. Without a doubt, Canada is in this group.
             achievement of a reusable space vehicle                                               Countries and corporations that currently oper-
             atop a rocket with the potential to vastly               space policy.”               ate in space must start considering now how
             reduce the costs of accessing space. This                                             they will handle new actors in the region while
             advance essentially serves as the platform                                            those that do not must consider how they can
             for future space development, as the practicality of ubiquitous best unlock the potential of their emerging access. For militaries,
             use, in both engineering and financial terms, now exists for the planning considerations concerning the concept of control of space
             near-future. SpaceX’s lower-cost, reusable rockets are the hub or space superiority, and the possibility of being forced to win it
             around which other concepts and technologies can be realized, or not being able to exercise it, will become as essential as those
             exploited, and further developed. As humanity moves towards who have been concerned with airpower superiority.
             a greater presence in space, the effects upon future war and
             military theory and practice will be as profound, as will effects      New actors in space leads to the second implication for states
             upon all other aspects of the human endeavor.                     to consider: tension, both interstate and intrastate, with respect to
                                                                               what the Executive Secretary of the American Space Council, Scott
                                                                                                                     Pace, has termed the cultures
                                                                                                                     of the merchants (focused
                                                                                                                     upon competition and profit)
                                                                                                                     and guardians (focused upon
                                                                                                                     order and protection).35 A
                                                                                                                     busier, more crowded Earth-
                                                                                                                     Moon system will mean that
                                                                                                                     the clash of merchant and
                                                                                                                     guardian interests will occur
                                                                                                                     at the state and global levels,
                                                                                                                     increasing the requirement for
                                                                                                                     accommodation and coordi-
                                                                                                                     nation regarding space policy.
                                                                                                                     Traditional political, defence,
                                                                                                                     and economic alliances need
                                                                                                                     to start considering today how
                                                                                                                     to coordinate their affairs on
                                                                                                                     the orbital highways of cir-
                                                                                                                     cumterrestrial space. New
                                                                                                                     methods of cooperation
                                                                                                                     between states and alliances
                                                                                                                     can build the necessary redun-
                                                                                                                     dancy of essential capabilities
                                                                                                                     to respond to cases of satel-
                                                                                                                     lite network failure, due to
                                                                                                                     intentional attack or inad-
                                                                                                                     vertent mishap. New forms
                                                                                                                     of traffic control will require
                                                                                                                     implementation as the vol-
Au t h o r

                                                                                                                     ume of traffic into and around

             Diagram 5 – Low-Cost, Reusable Rockets as the Hub for Future Space Development.

             10                                                           Canadian Military Journal        • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
Lanmas/Alamy Stock Photo/G3T04G

                                  17th Century Spanish Galleons.

                                  the circumterrestrial region overwhelms current Earth-based               The implications for the CAF are evident. Over the next
                                  monitoring systems. Much like the oceans today, the tension          15 years, space, and more specifically, the Earth-Moon system,
                                  tomorrow between space as an economic development concern            will become a key domain for competition between terrestrial
                                  and space as a national security factor will affect how all these    actors. The CAF, as part of its future capability horizon planning,
                                  coordination issues are addressed.                                   should consider the following questions:

                                       Further complicating coordination is the final implication      •   How will the CAF operate from space in 15 years?
                                  concerning military operations in the future state: the change in
                                                                                                       •   How will the increase in space operations affect
                                  infrastructure requirements for space operations in the face of
                                                                                                           CAF principles for command and control relationships,
                                  evolving rocket technology. Under the current paradigm, military
                                                                                                           mechanisms, and infrastructure for military operations?
                                  operations are conducted through large, fixed installations with
                                  established government agencies and contracted companies. These      •   How will the CAF access space in 15 years? Through
                                  are easy to monitor, and they act as bottlenecks for access, due         military procured rockets, civilian rockets, or a
                                  to throughput of launches. Smaller, lighter rockets and smaller          public-private venture?
                                  payloads require less infrastructure. This is already occurring,     •   What sort of Earth-based infrastructure will the CAF
                                  with launches from rocket Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL)             require to operate successfully in space in 15 years?
                                  vehicles and submarines putting small satellites into low Earth
                                  orbit.36 The reduction of logistics required to support a launch     •   How will the CAF generate the specialist personnel to
                                  will mean that rocket support facilities or vehicles could devolve       manage and execute operations in space in 15 years?
                                  from national assets to theatre or even tactical assets. Military
                                  planners must take this into account as they organize to support          Over the next 15 years, the development of cheaper, reusable
                                  and defeat future space operations.                                  rockets by commercial industry will lead to rapid expansion of
                                                                                                       military presence in space, establishing the economic feasibility

                                  Canadian Military Journal          • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                  11
of space-based military operations for state and non-state actors.                      space and low-earth orbit as a given, and a failure to address
Low cost, reusable rockets being pioneered by SpaceX will serve                         the questions listed earlier means the CAF will be ‘playing
as the hub for a host of other existing technologies and concepts                       catch-up,’ and will be ‘on the outside looking in’ towards a
to be developed and employed in space.                                                  potentially decisive domain for military operations. As we
                                                                                        observe SpaceX and other companies continue their drive to
Conclusion                                                                              improve their creations, we are watching the 21st Century’s
                                                                                        Wright Flyer take off, and like that modest flight in 1903, the

I n order to remain relevant in 15 years, Canada and the
  Canadian Armed Forces must start working now to deter-
mine how best to manage the implications. Planning for
                                                                                        potential of cost-effective, reusable rocket technology offers
                                                                                        to change the parameters of space power within a generation.

Canadian operations in the 2030s now must take access to

           NOTES
1    John Buckley, Air Power in the Age of Total               James Fergusson (Eds.), Military Space Power:           24    NASA, “What are SmallSats and CubeSats?”in
     War (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press,           A Reference Handbook, (Santa Barbara, CA:                     NASA.gov, 26 February 2015, at: https://www.
     1999), p. 67.                                             ABC-CLIO LLC, 2010), pp. 21-24.                               nasa.gov/content/what-are-smallsats-and-cube-
2    Marc Boucher, “An Overview of Canadian               16   Diagram adapted from John M. Collins, Military                sats, accessed 31 December 2017. Irene Klotz,
     Military in Space in 2014 – Part 1,” in SpaceQ.ca,        Space Forces: The Next 50 Years, p. 17.                       “Small satellites driving space industry growth:
     9 February 2015, at: https://spaceq.ca/an_over-      17   Satellite database at Union of Concerned Scientists,          report,” in Reuters, 11 July 2017, at: https://www.
     view_of_canadian_milspace_in_2014_-_part/,                “UCS Satellite Database,” UCSUSA.org, at:                     reuters.com/article/us-space-satellites/small-
     accessed 24 September 2019.                               http://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-data-               satellites-driving-space-industry-growth-report-
3    Jim Oberg, Space Power Theory (Washington,                base, accessed 2 December 2019. Satellite distri-             idUSKBN19W2LR, accessed 31 December 2017.
     D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1999), p. 119.          bution currently sees 92% (1892) of all satellites      25    Information on Falcon Heavy found on SpaceX
4    James Clay Moltz, Crowded Orbits: Conflict                in either low earth or geosynchronous orbit.                  company website, at: http://www.spacex.com/
     and Cooperation in Space (New York: Columbia         18   NASA, “Space Debris and Human Spacecraft.”                    falcon-heavy, 2 December 2019.
     University Press, 2014), p. 10.                           NASA.gov. 26 September 2013, at: https://www.           26    Information on BDR found on SpaceX com-
5    David Axe, “When it comes to war in space, U.S.           nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_                  pany website, at: http://www.spacex.com/starship,
     has the edge,” in Reuters.com, 10 August 2015, at:        debris.html, accessed 31 December 2017.                       2 December 2019.
     http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/08/09/    19   David Axe, “When it comes to war in space,              27    Sam Dinkin, “Estimating the cost of BFR,” in
     the-u-s-military-is-preparing-for-the-real-star-          U.S. has the edge,” in Washington Post, “Fearful              The Space Review, 9 October 2017, at: http://
     wars/, accessed 13 November 2017.                         after China’s anti-satellite missile tests, Pentagon          www.thespacereview.com/article/3343/1,
6    Oberg, pp. 67-68.                                         launches space command centre,” South China                   accessed 21 December 2017.
7    Ibid, p. 69.                                              Morning Post, 10 May 2016, at: http://www.              28    SpaceX company website, at: http://www.
8    Sarah Kramer and Dave Mosher, “Here’s How                 scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/                     spacex.com.
     much money it actually costs to launch stuff into         article/1943056/fearful-after-chinas-anti-satellite-    29    The C-17 can carry a load of 77 metric tons
     space,” in BusinessInsider.com., 20 July 2016, at:        missile-tests, accessed 31 December 2017.                     (170,900 pounds), while the C-5 can haul
     http://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-rocket-        20   Dan Glass, “What happens if GPS fails?” in The                122 metric tons (270,000 pounds). Statistics
     cargo-price-by-weight-2016-6/#bottle-of-water-            Atlantic, 13 June, 2016, at: https://www.theatlan-            obtained at the US Air Force webpage, at: http://
     9100-to-43180-1, accessed 13 November 2017.               tic.com/technology/archive/2016/06/what-hap-                  www.af.mil/.
9    Information found on SpaceX company website               pens-if-gps-fails/486824/, accessed 31 December         30    Alan Vick et al., The Stryker Brigade Combat
     at: http://www.spacex.com/about.                          2017.                                                         Team: Rethinking Strategic Responsiveness and
10   Information found on Rocket Lab at: https://www.     21   Lewis Dartnell, “What would happen if sat-                    Assessing Deployment Options (Santa Monica,
     rocketlabusa.com/about-us/ and Vector Space               ellites fell from the sky?” in The Telegraph,                 CA: RAND, 2002), pp. 15-28.
     Systems at: https://vectorspacesystems.com/com-           29 April 2014, at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/          31    David Axe, “Semper Fly: Marines in Space,” in
     pany/ websites.                                           culture/books/10785683/What-would-happen-                     Popular Science, 18 December 2006, at: https://
11   Kramer and Mosher. Also, see Andrew Chaikin,              if-satellites-fell-from-the-sky.html, accessed                www.popsci.com/military-aviation-space/arti-
     “Is SpaceX Changing the Rocket Equation?” in              31 December 2017.                                             cle/2006-12/semper-fly-marines-space, accessed
     Air & Space Magazine, January 2012, at: https://     22   Lee Billings, “War in Space May Be Closer Than                31 December 2017.
     www.airspacemag.com/space/is-spacex-chang-                Ever,” in Scientific American, 10 August 2015,          32    Diagram adapted from John M. Collins, Military
     ing-the-rocket-equation-132285884, accessed               at: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/               Space Forces: The Next 50 Years, p. 20.
     13 November 2017.                                         war-in-space-may-be-closer-than-ever/, accessed         33    Ibid., pp. 21-25.
12   Oberg, p. 69.                                             31 December 2017.                                       34    Wong and Fergusson, pp. 108-114.
13   Diagram adapted from John M. Collins, Military       23   Stephen Clark, “Iridium satellites rolling off assem-   35    Scott Pace, “Merchant and Guardian Challenges
     Space Forces: The Next 50 Years (Washington,              bly line in Arizona,” in Spaceflight Now, 13 July             in the Exercise of Spacepower,” in Toward a
     D.C.: Pergamon-Brassey’s, 1989), p. 7.                    2016, at: https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/07/13/              Theory of Spacepower: Selected Essays, Charles
14   Ibid., pp. 6-22.                                          iridium-satellites-rolling-off-assembly-line-in-ari-          D. Lutes et al., (Eds.), pp. 241-273 (Washington,
15   The division of orbital zones in the circumter-           zona/, accessed 31 December 2017.                             D.C.: National Defense University Press, 2011.),
     restrial region is arbitrary, and the convention                                                                        pp. 248-250.
     used here is from John M. Collins, Military Space                                                                 36    Oberg, Space Power Theory, pp. 70-71.
     Forces, pp. 15-16. Also see Wilson Wong and

12                                                                        Canadian Military Journal                         • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITARY PHILOSOPHY
G AU T I E R S t e p h a n e / S AG A P H OTO. C O M / A l a m y S t o c k P h o t o / D M B B 1 B

                                                                                                     The Thinker, by Auguste Rodin, in the gardens of the museum created in 1916 in Paris by the sculptor.

                                                                                                     e-Thinking: Pre-Empting Global Instability
                                                                                                     in the 21st Century
                                                                                                                                                                     by Eric Dion

                                                                                                          Eric Dion, CD, MBA, Ph.D., is a contract professor, an                 our contemporary (or e-) thinking. Indeed, global events do not
                                                                                                     executive management consultant and a military veteran who                  happen by accident; human designs have a great part to play.
                                                                                                     served for 25 years in the Canadian Forces. He teaches at the               As we invented the ‘World,’ ‘Time,’ and ‘Money,’ naturally, we
                                                                                                     Canadian Forces College, and his research focuses on the strategic          can deconstruct these ideas as Lego® blocks that can be melted
                                                                                                     management of national security and global defence.                         down intellectually, and then philosophically redesigned.
                                                                                                                                                                                 Taking an original comprehensive e-Thinking perspective, this
                                                                                                     Authorship Note                                                             article aims to deconstruct our most complex problems and

                                                                                                     T
                                                                                                                                                                                 cognitive dissonances in order to more fundamentally reflect
                                                                                                              his article is reflexive, and thus contains facts                  upon our epistemologies and way of thinking. Indeed, Einstein
                                                                                                              and opinions, which the author alone considered                    famously once said:
                                                                                                              appropriate and correct for the subject. It does
                                                                                                              not necessarily reflect the policy or the opinion                       “We can’t solve problems using the same logic we used
                                                                                                     of any agency, including the Government of Canada and the                        when we created them”
                                                                                                     Department of National Defence.                                                                                                ~ Einstein
                                                                                                     Introduction                                                                      Moreover, we will purport that e-Thinking is quintessen-
                                                                                                                                                                                 tial to pre-empt global instability. The Allies, as we refer to
                                                                                                     T    he advent of Cognitive Warfare within so-called Gray
                                                                                                          Zones is already upon our Allies.1 New thinking is no
                                                                                                     longer innovative, it is imperative to pre-empt global instability
                                                                                                                                                                                 20 percent of the world’s population living in the Occident, have
                                                                                                                                                                                 essentially been avoiding major wars at all cost, preventatively
                                                                                                                                                                                 engaging in our world. Our interest fundamentally rests in stable
                                                                                                     in the 21st Century. This article thus proposes to venture into             socio-economic conditions for our way of life. In the 21st Century,

                                                                                                     Canadian Military Journal              • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                     13
Situational Context

                                                                                                                                          I  t may appear global instability is at our doorstep,
                                                                                                                                             and moreover, in our ‘Internet of Things.’ Since
                                                                                                                                          the Allies have been wholly unable to manage
                                                                                                                                          the Middle-East conflicts with some intellectual
                                                                                                                                          wherewithal, it seems we are now facing an era of
                                                                                                                                          ‘unending warfare.’ Indeed, and from the start, the
                                                                                                                                          plan appears to have been to bog down the Allies
                                                                                                                                          in ‘civilisation wars.’ What is worse, Russia plays
                                                                                                                                          Hybrid Warfare, China plays Unrestricted Warfare,
                                                                                                                                          and non-state actors play Asymmetric Warfare. This
                                                                                                                                          global context thus creates a perception that we are
                                                                                                                                          in for a ‘long war’ in this century, and perhaps even
                                                                                                                                          in for a Fourth Generation War, as it materializes
                                                                                                                                          and develops. From this viewpoint, Afghanistan,
                                                                                                                                          Iraq, and Syria can be thought of as a contemporary
                                                                                                                                          litmus test.

                                                                                                                                               What is much less apparent and more ambiguous is
                                                                                                                                          the fact that the vast majority of today’s humanity lives
PictureLux/The Hollywood Archive/Alamy Stock Photo/PM4JD1

                                                                                                                                          much longer and livelier than any of their predecessors
                                                                                                                                          in modern times.2 Hence, major wars and conflicts the
                                                                                                                                          scale of world wars are avoided at all possible cost.
                                                                                                                                          Plausible war scenarios remain, but the potential of
                                                                                                                                          global contemporary war is much more unconventional
                                                                                                                                          in this perspective. However, they are still involving
                                                                                                                                          all crucial elements of power. Thus, new emerging
                                                                                                                                          approaches are not so much interesting as they are
                                                                                                                                          truly required because the global context has changed,
                                                                                                                                          at least, in our own perception of this environment.

                                                                                                                                       As we are building the World, we are creating
                                                                                                                                  our own military chaos, if only by accident. Thus:
                                                                                                                                  “[…] they came to realize that what to think and how
                                                            Albert Einstein, 14 January 1931.                                     to think are integral parts of the making and unmak-
                                                                                                                                  ing of contemporary conflicts.”3 Indeed, more people
                                                                                                                                           die in suicides annually than in all conflicts
                                                            National Security & Global Defence is really                                   around the world,4 although population dis-
                                                            about pre-empting instability.                                                 placement from these conflicts remains a major
                                                                                                              “What is much less           unaddressed issue, which impacts more the
                                                                  In a comprehensive perspective, six         apparent and more            living than the dead. Thus, different from the
                                                            dimensions support major human deci-                                           popular view, terror is not a strategic issue:
                                                            sion-making: The situational-context,            ambiguous is the fact         It is more of a globally- recurring annoying
                                                            socioculture, organisational structure,        that the vast majority of       wart, but not debilitating.5 Hence, the global
                                                            strategic policies, systemic processes          today’s humanity lives         contemporary context is intrinsically tied to
                                                            and synergistic dynamics. Each                                                 our own perception of it, as much as it still
                                                            dimension can be thought of                        much longer and             has to do with the cold hard facts, both of
                                                            independently, and it is what most theories of livelier than any of their      which we must therefore balance. As such,
                                                            our world do, placing the locus of thinking         predecessors in            the situation is not dire.
                                                            within one-or-two dimensions idiosyncrati-
                                                            cally. However, this meta-theoretical model            modern     times.”              Socio-Culture
                                                            really adds value when all dimensions are
                                                            considered interdependently, as complex
                                                            and ‘wicked’ problems in the ‘real world.’
                                                            Moreover, accepting that most of humanity is well intended,
                                                                                                                                                   A      s the rational-comprehensive perspective
                                                                                                                                                          has dominated through the industrial era,
                                                                                                                              in the information era, alternative perspectives to this paradigm have
                                                            it is an important philosophical underpinning to contemporary     emerged, specifically from the lens of social-constructivism. Often
                                                            war theory, which manages by exception and less by example.       conflated within context, the socio-cultural dimension now requires
                                                            Therefore, engaging constructively and proactively in the world   an analysis of its own system, within the system of six dimensions
                                                            are key premises.                                                 previously identified.

                                                            14                                                     Canadian Military Journal             • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020
MILITARY PHILOSOPHY
                                Indeed, war is a social construct, as the ‘war of peoples’         Organisational Structure
                           are waged by proxy through their militaries for governments.
                           Sometimes literally contracted out, warfare officially remains
                           the prerogative of nation-states, but socially constructed chal-
                           lenges to this Westphalian view have emerged through the ideas
                                                                                                   I  n order to ‘think outside of the box,’ there first must be an
                                                                                                      acknowledgement of the box itself. Thus, we are not propos-
                                                                                                   ing to burn the box that has served us well, but rather that we
                           of indirect warfare, such as terrorism and insurgency. No longer        think from the box and particularly for the box, beyond the box.
                           are Occidental peoples seemingly satisfied with their international     Without a box to start with, a box in which we are all educated
                           engagements, and this social-political pressure out-manoeuvers          and experienced, an entire endeavour is fundamentally devoid
                           contemporary warfare in their name’s sake.                              of intellectual structure. However, this is not the sole dimen-
                                                                                                   sion to consider, as we have argued herein. The military alone
                                 The soldier-citizen disconnect is more obvious, as the military   is unable to solve the root causes of contemporary and human
                           social contract is outdated. Our enemies include civilians within       conflicts, so even the false dichotomy between civilian and
                           their arcs of fire, but civilians are part of the solution. Citizens    military, similar to many others, needs revision.
                           are ‘fighters’ in their everyday lives because warfare is now social
                           and economic.                                                                We should promote Operations & Intelligence fusion
                                                                                                   structures akin to brawns with brains, and also integrate organisa-
                                “[Thus, terror] can be successfully challenged over the long       tions within the whole of National Security & Global Defence
                           run by prudent policies that maintain the fundamental tenets of         teams. By design, we can prepare a military offer of services while
                           society”6 – Raheel Raza, Their Jihad … Not My Jihad! Warfare,           we do not control the demand, which is both structural in terms
                           if legitimised by the people for the people, must maintain this         of physical and virtual organisation, and intellectual. The current
                           moral high ground. As such, our Allied militaries, carrying out         regimen of military silos does not provide a structurally-sound
                           the people’s wars, must be highly intelligence-aware, understand-       organisation in time and space and thought, when deconstruction
                           ing intelligence not simply as a military function for example,         of Regiments and reconstruction of Task Forces happens in the
                           but as a human function. “Thus, NCMs7 should be educated and            midst of battles. The main challenge that frustrates military plan-
                           empowered to think.”8 Therefore, our current military structures        ners is mostly organisational issues, and not so much strategic
                           of thought must be opened and rapidly transformed.                      issues, akin to ‘rearranging the chairs’…
DND photo/CFC J6 Imaging

                           Canadian Forces College Toronto.

                           Canadian Military Journal            • Vol. 20, No. 2, Spring 2020                                                                   15
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