Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
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Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Contents Executive summary 04 Dubai real estate market performance Hospitality market 08 Residential market 10 Office market 12 Retail market 14 Industrial and logistics market 17 Key contacts 18 03
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Executive summary Dubai real estate market performance Pent-up demand from travellers and increased spending by residents led the post-pandemic recovery of the real estate sector in Dubai. Amidst global economic uncertainty and recessionary fears, Dubai’s status as a safe haven has attracted investors to the market throughout 2022. However, inflation remains a concern for consumers and is expected to impact sentiment resulting in price discovery and rent increases leading into 2023. Hospitality Occupancy for Dubai averaged 70% at the end of 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, while the average ADR over this period has increased by 37% year-on-year to AED 641. This is higher than the majority of the regional and international markets. Residential Average sales prices for residential property in Dubai increased by approximately 12% between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 to reach AED 1,203 per sq ft. Average rents also increased by approximately 19% over the same period, rising to AED 73 per sq ft as as at the end of 2022. Gross yields reflect 6.1% compared to 5.7% in 2021. Offices Office rents have recovered to pre-pandemic levels registering an increase of 12% at the end of 2022 over the same period. 04
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Retail Consumer spending growth fueled the retail sector recovery in both online and traditional mall formats. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates that the total UAE retail sales volume will increase by approximately 4.2% in 2022, with sales expected to increase by 3.9% on average between 2023 to 2026. Industrial and logistics Average warehouse rents have continued to recover as demand from logistics companies remains buoyant and freight movements at the airports surpass 2020 levels by 22% and 3% at Dubai International Airport (DXB) and Dubai World Central (DWC) respectively. 05
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Hospitality market 08 Residential market 10 Office market 12 Retail market 14 Industrial and logistics market 17 07
Dubai’s hospitality market The hospitality market recovery strengthened during 2022 as key performance indicators tracked higher than the previous year despite total visitor numbers remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Review of 2022 performance Dubai hotel performance percentage change, January 2021 to Dubai welcomed 10.1 million overnight visitors in the first nine September 2021 vs January 2022 to September 2022 70 months of 2022, with the highest number of international guests 64% arriving from India at 1.2 million and more than double the 60 number of visitors from Oman, KSA and the UK compared to the previous year. International visitors are still lower than pre- 50 pandemic levels, with a total of 12.1 million visitors in Dubai during Y-o-y% change from 2021 2019. 40 37% The YTD September 2022 occupancy for Dubai averaged 70% 30 compared to 59% for the same period in 2021, while the average ADR over this period has increased by 37% year-on-year to 20 20% AED 641. This is higher than the majority of the regional and international markets, as shown on the following page. 10 As seen in the adjacent graph, both ADR and occupancy improved 0 significantly from the previous year as a market-wide recovery Occupancy (%) ADR RevPAR was supported by ease of travel and the lifting of capacity and Source: Business Intelligence and Reporting (DTCM) personal protective equipment (PPE) related restrictions. The first three months of the year were the strongest for occupancy performance, reaching 91% in March. Dubai hotel market performance, January to September 2022 1,000 71% 91% 100% 59% 85% 80% 750 73% ADR/RevPAR (AED) 63% 61% 69% 60% 64% 500 40% 250 20% 850 601 784 663 888 809 789 462 590 429 447 280 435 263 425 272 446 307 0 0% January February March April May June July August September ADR (AED) RevPAR (AED) Occupancy (%) Source: STR Global 08
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Post-pandemic recovery UAE Tourism Strategy 2031 The YTD September 2022 data STR shows all performance metrics In mid-November 2022, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin are tracking above 2019 levels with the exception of city-wide Rashid Al Maktoum launched the UAE Tourism Strategy 2031, occupancy. In addition to international visitors, activity from which aims to strengthen the position of the UAE as one of the residents has supported the recovery of the hospitality sector in best destinations in the world for tourism. Dubai. The goal is to boost the country’s competitiveness as an ADRs are tracking 22.6% higher than 2019 levels, resulting in a international tourism destination by attracting AED 100 billion as 18% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) from 2019 additional tourism investments and welcoming 40 million hotel levels. guests in 2031. Data from the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing The strategy includes 25 initiatives and policies to support the (DTCM) shows an increase in the average length of stay, which was development of the tourism sector in the country with a targeted 3.4 nights from January to September 2019 and has increased to gross domestic product (GDP) contribution of AED 450 billion in 4.0 nights over the same period in 2022. 2031, representing an annual increase of AED 27 billion. Dubai ADR and occupancy vs regional markets, YTD September 2022 350 70% 70% 68% 300 62% 60% Occupancy (%) 57% 52% 58% 250 47% 51% 50% ADR (US$) 46% 200 44% 40% 150 38% 30% 100 20% 50 10% 104 140 125 175 214 169 107 169 97 88 75 0 0% Abu Dhabi Amman Cairo & Casablanca Doha Dubai Jeddah Manama Muscat Riyadh Sharm el Giza center Sheikh ADR (US$) Occupancy (%) Source: STR Global Dubai ADR and occupancy vs international markets, YTD September 2022 65% 350 68% 70% 300 67% 60% 71% 55% ADR/RevPAR (US$) 250 70% 50% Occupancy (%) 60% 200 59% 62% 40% 63% 50% 150 51% 30% 45% 100 20% 50 10% 116 115 175 138 217 202 135 266 306 201 166 73 99 0 0% Beijing Berlin Beunos Dubai Hong London Los Angeles Madrid New York Paris Rome Sydney Tokyo Aires Kong ADR (US$) Occupancy (%) Source: STR Global 09
Dubai’s residential market Amidst global economic uncertainty and recessionary fears, Dubai’s status as a safe haven has attracted investors during 2022, with transaction levels rising year-on-year surpassing 2019 levels. Review of 2022 performance Dubai ranging from 38% to 43% and Deira was the only location Average sales prices for residential property in Dubai increased to record a decline of 5%. Transaction volumes have increased by by approximately 12% between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 to reach 56% YTD September 2022 when compared to the same period in AED 1,203 per sq ft. Average rents have also increased by 2021 and have more than doubled from 2019 levels for the same approximately 19% over the same period, rising to AED 73 per period. Secondary market properties constituted 55% of the total sq ft as of September 2022. Gross yields reflect 6.1%, compared transactions in the first nine months of this year, with Business to 5.7% in YTD September 2021 as rental growth has outpaced Bay, Dubai Marina and Jumeirah Village Circle recording the growth in prices. highest number of transactions. The average trend masks a much more varied sub-market picture The market continues to be dominated by cash buyers while with Mohammed Bin Rashed City, Palm Jumeirah and Business demand for affordable villas and townhouses from existing Bay being the top three sales price growth areas year-on-year residents has driven rental activity in this segment. Rents in this against Dubai Land, Dubai South and Dubai Creek Harbour as category began to recover by the end of 2020, while the apartment the locations with the highest price declines. By comparison, rent segment began to show signs of improved performance from the increases were highest in Jumeirah, Palm Jumeirah and Downtown first half of 2021. Dubai residential sales prices, Q1 2007 to Q3 2022 Lehman Bros. Last market Travel restrictions and collapse peak lockdown measures 1,600 1,400 Price (AED per sq ft) 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Villa Apartment Residential Dubai residential rents, Q1 2009 to Q3 2022 Last market Travel restrictions and peak lockdown measures 80 70 60 Rent (AED per sq ft) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Villa Apartment Dubai average Source: REIDIN 10
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Dubai residential sales prices by location, Q3 2022 Palm Jumeirah Villas AED 4,831 47% Dubai Marina AED 1,536 5% Palm Jumeirah Apartments Jumeirah Lakes Towers AED 1,857 34% AED 1,045 2% Downtown Dubai Sports AED 2,159 14% City AED 724 -1.5% Business Dubai South Discovery Bay AED 701 -17% Gardens Duabi Land AED 1,732 27% AED 556 12% AED 787 -11% Al Furjan Mohammed Bin AED 918 14% Rashid City Arabian Ranches Villas AED 2,076 51% Dubai Creek Harbour AED 1,682 -4% AED 1,191 -3% AED 539 18% Positive Neutral Negative Source: REIDIN Note: Sales prices are quoted in AED per sq ft with year-on-year change in % Metric Apartment Apartment Villa rent Villa sales price Dubai average Dubai average rent sales price (AED per sq ft (AED per sq ft) rent (AED per sales price (AED per sq ft (AED per sq ft) per year) sq ft per year) (AED per sq ft) per year) 2021 AED 64 AED 1,027 AED 58 AED 1,126 AED 61 AED 1,076 2022 AED 74 AED 1,105 AED 70 AED 1,302 AED 73 AED 1,203 Y-o-y trend 17% 8% 21% 16% 19% 12% 11
Dubai’s office market Office rents have recovered to pre-pandemic levels registering an increase of 12% YTD in September 2022 compared to the same period last year. Occupiers continue to assess relocation and consolidation opportunities in an environment of increasing fit-out costs. Review of 2022 performance The majority of government services, banks and professional The post-pandemic workplace forms an integral part of corporate services companies have returned to the office while media, occupier recovery strategies as issues of staff retention and technology and design firms have largely embraced hybrid working employee engagement came to the fore over the last two models. Demand for office space continues to be defined by years. The office market in Dubai has historically been driven by growth in business operations in key sectors of the economy. international companies looking to establish a regional market base in the Emirate. This segment of the market typically seeks Dubai employment in financial and business services, 2015 to 2022f prime central business district (CBD) properties, where rents were the quickest to recover in 2022. 600 15% Limited grade A stock within or in proximity to the central 500 10% 12% business district of DIFC/Downtown has allowed building owners 10% 1% 3% 400 8% 5% to maintain rent levels this year. Inflation linked rental escalations 3% Persons in Thousands have impacted ongoing leases for corporate tenants, even as the 300 -0% role of the office continues to be reassessed. Capital investment 200 -5% for fit-outs has previously been provided on stock outside of CBD locations as an incentive to tenants and this trend is expected to 100 -10% continue. -10% 0 -15% Dubai Statistics Centre forecasts GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f 2022 led by the hospitality, food and beverage (F&B), real estate, wholesale and retail, transport, manufacturing and financial Employment - financial and business service services sectors. As a result, hiring levels across key sectors is Year-on-year change (%) expected to increase and will have a positive impact on office Source: Oxford Economics; Note: f:forecast demand. Dubai average office rents, Q1 2015 to Q3 2022 125 126 125 126 125 124 124 124 122 140 121 121 121 119 119 116 115 114 112 110 108 110 114 106 103 105 107 120 101 100 99 101 102 100 AED per sq ft per year 80 60 40 20 0 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2022 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q1-2022 Q1-2022 Q2-2022 Q3-2022 Source: REIDIN Note: Rents quoted above exclude service charge 12
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 WTC/SZR** Deira AED 126 AED 83 DIFC AED 259 TECOM Downtown AED 202 AED 165 JLT* AED 81 Al Barsha Business Al Garhoud AED 82 Bay AED 76 AED 105 Bur Dubai AED 87 Rents are quoted AED per sq ft per year Rents are average achieved rents for shell and core offices exclusive of service charges *Jumeirah Lakes Towers **World Trade Centre/Sheikh Zayed Road Area DIFC Bur Al Deira WTC/ Al Busi- Down- TECOM JLT Dubai Dubai Garh- SZR Barsha ness town aver- oud Bay age 2020 216 90 75 86 111 77 84 177 166 71 101 2021 239 82 69 80 109 75 87 164 167 72 102 Y-o-y trend 8% 6% 10% 4% 16% 9% 21% 23% -1% 13% 12% 2022 259 87 76 83 126 82 105 202 165 81 114 Source: REIDIN, Deloitte 13
Dubai’s retail market Consumer spending growth fueled retail sector recovery in both online and traditional mall formats. Review of 2022 performance UAE retail sales volume growth, 2017 to 2026f The EIU estimates that the total UAE retail sales volume will increase by approximately 4.2% in 2022, with sales expected to 9% 7.7% increase by 3.9% a year on average over the remainder of the 6% 4.2% 5.3% 4.0% 3.6% forecast period. 2.7% Retail sales volume growth 3% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0% Emaar Malls, which owns and operates approximately 6.8 million sq ft of retail gross leasable area (GLA)1, registered 24% growth in -3% revenue during the first nine months of 2022, when compared to -6% the same period in 2021. Meanwhile average occupancy for the -9% Emaar portfolio, which includes Dubai Mall, Dubai Marina Mall, -9.7% -12% Gold & Diamond Park, Souk Al Bahar and other community retail 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f centres stood at 96% as of September 2022. Dubai Hills Mall, the newest entrant among the portfolio opened in February 2022 and had achieved an occupancy of 87% as of September 2022. Source: EIU a:actual, e:EIU estimate, f: EIU forecast Meanwhile, Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) point of sale (POS) data2 shows For residents, ‘other malls’, which include smaller community cen- that overall, consumer spending increased by 20% from January tres and convenience retail, as well as ‘non-mall’ outlets continue to September 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and to dominate in 2022 due to their convenience and proximity to retail sector growth was 15%, with non-retail up 29%. According to residential areas. Majid Al Futtaim footfall data reveals an increase the MAF data, fashion spending was the highest growth category of 15% in mall visitors during YTD September 2022 compared to increasing 23% from 2021 levels and gaining 25% on 2019 levels. the same period in 2021. January to March recorded the strongest sales through YTD September, contributing 44% of the growth for the first nine Inflation remains a concern for consumers and is expected to months compared to the same period in 2021. This mirrored the impact the overall discretionary spending in 2023. Omnichannel highest performing months in the hospitality sector as highlighted formats are allowing consumers to search for discounts and deals, previously. with retailers focusing on a seamless shopping experience through an increased use of data and technology. The UAE e-commerce Dubai consumer preferences market is expected to reach US$ 9.2 billion in 2026 according to The Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates have historically been the analysis by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce. This growth the majority of the demand from visitors, collectively capturing will be supported by increasing mobile e-commerce transactions 51% of total tourist retail demand in 2022. Demand from tourists through the availability of applications. recovered during 2022 due to ease of travel and the lifting of re- strictions. Additionally, retail centres continue to rely on resident footfall and spend. Note: (1) Emaar Malls, Q3 2021 Results Presentation (2) Majid Al Futtaim ‘State of the UAE Retail Economy’ Q3 2022 Report 14
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Cannibalising shopping malls: how does a newly opened asset and its location affect consumer behaviour? Spatial cannibalisation, also referred to as, customer loss to competition or to one’s own assets, is of crucial importance to retailers and commercial developers alike. Deloitte has partnered with Perigon AI to analyse the impact of credit card spend allows spending patterns for established centres a new mall on existing retail developments. If you could reliably and the impact of new centres to be assessed. estimate spatial cannibalisation when planning for retail expansion, developing a new mall or monitoring the performance of your As a case study to demonstrate this approach we review assets, will consumers previously populating other locations switch the impact the newly opened Dubai Hills Mall has had on it's to your location? How does the location, e-commerce, marketing catchment. Below we see the weekly relative footfall in Dubai Hills campaigns and tenant mix affect this expansion? Mall starting from week 1 of operations. We can see a steady growth in the number of visitors to the mall in the first few weeks, Utilising mathematical modelling and AI to process a vast array of mounting to a spike in week 6. data ranging from human mobility data to geographically granular 1.0 1. Weekly relative footfall Relative footfall A spike in visitors to Dubai Hills Mall 0.8 in the first few weeks, called a honeymoon 0.6 period , known as a phase of discovery, exploration and 'checking it out'. 0.4 0.2 Dubai Hills Mall visitation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Weeks after opening Note: The indicated relative footfall is a score obtained from streams of big data, depicting footfall on a given week between its all-time minimum (0) and all-time maximum (1). As seen on the graph, footfall in Dubai Hills Mall reached its maximum on week 6 during the period analysed. 2. Where do these customers come from? Ranches - Mira Community axis, along Umm Suqeim Street. We see the trade areas clustered around Dubai Hills Mall (green The honeymoon period attracted customers from a wide range of pin) in the first week, expanding to cover larger swathes of Dubai neighbourhoods such as Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina, and JLT, reaching peak coverage on week 6. The primary trade areas of considered as high-end central high-end central areas with an the mall then come back to 'normal' with the mall and the Arabian abundant supply of retail destinations. Week 1 Week 6 Week 11 15
5.0% 3. Mall cannibalisation 4.5% What happened to the visitation patterns 4.0% for other retail destinations after 3.5% 3.0% Dubai Hills Mall opened? Is there any 2.5% cannibalisation effect? As seen on the left 2.0% graph, 4.6% of all of all regular visitors to 1.5% Souq Extra Al Barsha 2 switched to Dubai 1.0% Hills Mall. On the right tail, 1.1% of all the 0.5% visitors to Mall of the Emirates switched to 0.0% Souq My City Arabian The Lei- Avenues Mudon AI Barsha Mira Mead- J3 The Village Club Vista Mall of Dana Dubai Hills Mall. We can immediately see Extra Center AI Ranches sure Mall Commu- Mall Commu- ows Mall Mall Mare the Mall AI Barsha Barsha Commu- Center nity nity Village Emirates that the retail destinations affected the 2 Center nity Center Center most are primarily community centers and smaller retail lifestyle destination concepts, Percentage of customers cannibalised by Dubai Hills Mall rather than big shopping malls. 4. Cannibalisation string plot If we look at the spatial distribution of the retail destinations most cannibalised by Dubai Hills Mall, we can see an interesting pattern: They are concentrated near the mall, and spread along Umm Suqeim Street and its extension, Al Qudra Road (highlighted in blue), serving Dubai's outer communities, to include Al Barsha 2 and Dubai Hills, to Arabian Ranches, Sustainable City, and beyond. Mall cannibalisation 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 5. A quick look at the tenant mix at Dubai Hills Mall Dubai Hills Mall is placed on the artery connecting the upscale outer communities to Downtown Dubai. Dubai Hills Mall has accordingly been positioned to attract residents from these communities as its primary trade area. The tenant mix reveals how community-oriented its offerings are, to include family entertainment, F&B concepts, DIY hardware shops and barbershops. We can also see a selection of comparison goods, offering brands seen in Dubai's 'super regional centres' in a more accessible format. 16
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Dubai’s industrial and logistics market Average warehouse rents continue to recover as demand from logistics companies remains buoyant and freight movements at the airports surpass 2020 levels. Review of 2022 performance UAE imports and exports, 2018 to 2025f The two Dubai airports (DWC and DXB) have a combined capacity 500 of almost 2.8 million tons and are supported by airport adjacent as well as city-wide warehousing facilities. At the end of 2021, freight 400 movements at the two airports had increased in comparison to the 2020 levels, although they were still below 2019 levels. DXB 300 is currently the third busiest hub in the world for international US$ billion air freight with rapid transfer time to Port Rashid or Jebel Ali. 200 Meanwhile, DWC’s dedicated bonded link to Jebel Ali Port has enabled a rapid transit of sea to air cargo, supporting a swifter 100 recovery for the industrial and logistics market in Dubai. - E-commerce focused zones such as Dubai CommerCity and Dubai 2009 2020 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f South’s e-commerce cluster have been added to the supply in Imports USD$bn Exports US$bn recent years, while JAZFA is also developing additional logistics Source: Fitch Solutions; Note: f:forecast capacity. Meanwhile, there are still limited international grade specification warehouses in other parts of Dubai and this could lead to redevelopment projects in older areas such as Al Quoz, Umm Ramool among others. Dubai key logistics indicators, 2021 vs 2022 (millions) Metric DWC DXB Jebal Ali Road freight cargo throughput cargo throughput tonnage tonnes throughput 2021f 0.94 m 2.65 m 7.05 m 30.64 m Y-o-y trend 5% 3% 1% 3% 2022f 0.99 m 2.73 m 7.14 m 31.46 m Source: Fitch Solutions f: forecast Dubai average warehouse rents, Q3 2022 JAFZA AED 22 DAFZA AED 26 Dubai South Al Quoz AED 26 DIP AED 35 AED 26 Rents are quoted AED per sq ft per year Rents are average achieved rents for purpose built warehouses exclusive of service charges Source: Deloitte 17
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 Key contacts Stefan Burch Partner Head of Real Estate Deloitte Middle East sburch@deloitte.com Oliver Morgan Partner Head of Real Estate Development Deloitte Middle East omorgan@deloitte.com Jaime Liversidge Director Head of Real Estate Valuations Deloitte Middle East jliversidge@deloitte.com Dunia Joulani Director Head of Travel, Hospitality and Leisure (EMEA) Deloitte Middle East djoulani@deloitte.com Manika Dhama Director Head of Research, Real Estate Development Deloitte Middle East mdhama@deloitte.com 18
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023 19
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