Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte

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Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate
Predictions
2023
Dubai market review
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Contents
  Executive summary                         04

  Dubai real estate market performance

  Hospitality market                        08

  Residential market                        10

  Office market                             12

  Retail market                             14

  Industrial and logistics market           17

  Key contacts                              18

                                                                                03
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Executive summary
Dubai real estate market performance
Pent-up demand from travellers and increased spending by residents led the post-pandemic recovery of the real estate sector in
Dubai. Amidst global economic uncertainty and recessionary fears, Dubai’s status as a safe haven has attracted investors to the
market throughout 2022. However, inflation remains a concern for consumers and is expected to impact sentiment resulting in
price discovery and rent increases leading into 2023.

                     Hospitality
                     Occupancy for Dubai averaged 70% at the end of 2022, compared to the same period in 2021, while the average
                     ADR over this period has increased by 37% year-on-year to AED 641. This is higher than the majority of the
                     regional and international markets.

                     Residential
                     Average sales prices for residential property in Dubai increased by approximately 12% between Q3 2021 and
                     Q3 2022 to reach AED 1,203 per sq ft. Average rents also increased by approximately 19% over the same period,
                     rising to AED 73 per sq ft as as at the end of 2022. Gross yields reflect 6.1% compared to 5.7% in 2021.

                     Offices
                     Office rents have recovered to pre-pandemic levels registering an increase of 12% at the end of 2022 over the
                     same period.

04
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Retail
Consumer spending growth fueled the retail sector recovery in both online and traditional mall formats. The
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates that the total UAE retail sales volume will increase by approximately
4.2% in 2022, with sales expected to increase by 3.9% on average between 2023 to 2026.

Industrial and logistics
Average warehouse rents have continued to recover as demand from logistics companies remains buoyant and
freight movements at the airports surpass 2020 levels by 22% and 3% at Dubai International Airport (DXB) and
Dubai World Central (DWC) respectively.

                                                                                                                    05
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Dubai real
estate market
performance

06
Middle East Real Estate Predictions - 2023 Dubai market review - Deloitte
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Hospitality market                08
Residential market                10
Office market                     12
Retail market                     14
Industrial and logistics market   17

                                                                              07
Dubai’s hospitality market
The hospitality market recovery strengthened during 2022 as key
performance indicators tracked higher than the previous year despite total
visitor numbers remaining below pre-pandemic levels.
Review of 2022 performance                                                                     Dubai hotel performance percentage change, January 2021 to
Dubai welcomed 10.1 million overnight visitors in the first nine                               September 2021 vs January 2022 to September 2022
                                                                                                                    70
months of 2022, with the highest number of international guests
                                                                                                                                                                            64%
arriving from India at 1.2 million and more than double the
                                                                                                                    60
number of visitors from Oman, KSA and the UK compared to
the previous year. International visitors are still lower than pre-
                                                                                                                    50
pandemic levels, with a total of 12.1 million visitors in Dubai during
                                                                                          Y-o-y% change from 2021

2019.
                                                                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                                      37%
The YTD September 2022 occupancy for Dubai averaged 70%                                                             30
compared to 59% for the same period in 2021, while the average
ADR over this period has increased by 37% year-on-year to                                                           20           20%
AED 641. This is higher than the majority of the regional and
international markets, as shown on the following page.                                                              10

As seen in the adjacent graph, both ADR and occupancy improved                                                      0
significantly from the previous year as a market-wide recovery                                                            Occupancy (%)               ADR                  RevPAR
was supported by ease of travel and the lifting of capacity and
                                                                                               Source: Business Intelligence and Reporting (DTCM)
personal protective equipment (PPE) related restrictions. The
first three months of the year were the strongest for occupancy
performance, reaching 91% in March.

   Dubai hotel market performance, January to September 2022

                   1,000
                            71%                     91%                                                                                                                             100%
                                                                     59%
                                        85%
                                                                                                                                                                                    80%
                    750                                                              73%
ADR/RevPAR (AED)

                                                                                                                            63%           61%                         69%           60%
                                                                                                                                                             64%
                    500

                                                                                                                                                                                    40%

                    250
                                                                                                                                                                                    20%
                           850
                                 601

                                       784

                                             663

                                                   888

                                                         809

                                                                   789

                                                                         462

                                                                                    590

                                                                                                   429

                                                                                                                           447
                                                                                                                                 280

                                                                                                                                          435

                                                                                                                                                263

                                                                                                                                                        425

                                                                                                                                                               272

                                                                                                                                                                     446

                                                                                                                                                                            307

                      0                                                                                                                                                             0%
                           January     February    March             April           May                                     June          July             August   September

                                                               ADR (AED)       RevPAR (AED)                              Occupancy (%)

   Source: STR Global

08
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Post-pandemic recovery                                                                           UAE Tourism Strategy 2031
The YTD September 2022 data STR shows all performance metrics                                    In mid-November 2022, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin
are tracking above 2019 levels with the exception of city-wide                                   Rashid Al Maktoum launched the UAE Tourism Strategy 2031,
occupancy. In addition to international visitors, activity from                                  which aims to strengthen the position of the UAE as one of the
residents has supported the recovery of the hospitality sector in                                best destinations in the world for tourism.
Dubai.
                                                                                                 The goal is to boost the country’s competitiveness as an
ADRs are tracking 22.6% higher than 2019 levels, resulting in a                                  international tourism destination by attracting AED 100 billion as
18% increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) from 2019                                    additional tourism investments and welcoming 40 million hotel
levels.                                                                                          guests in 2031.

Data from the Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing                                       The strategy includes 25 initiatives and policies to support the
(DTCM) shows an increase in the average length of stay, which was                                development of the tourism sector in the country with a targeted
3.4 nights from January to September 2019 and has increased to                                   gross domestic product (GDP) contribution of AED 450 billion in
4.0 nights over the same period in 2022.                                                         2031, representing an annual increase of AED 27 billion.

 Dubai ADR and occupancy vs regional markets, YTD September 2022

                   350                                                                     70%                                                                                    70%
                                   68%
                   300                                    62%                                                                                                                     60%

                                                                                                                                                                                         Occupancy (%)
                                                                                 57%                      52%                                          58%
                   250                                                                                                 47%                                             51%        50%
ADR (US$)

                                               46%
                   200                                                                                                                   44%                                      40%
                   150                                               38%                                                                                                          30%

                   100                                                                                                                                                            20%

                   50                                                                                                                                                             10%
                                   104

                                                140

                                                           125

                                                                                               175

                                                                                                           214

                                                                                                                           169

                                                                                                                                          107

                                                                                                                                                        169
                                                                      97

                                                                                  88

                                                                                                                                                                        75
                    0                                                                                                                                                              0%
                              Abu Dhabi        Amman     Cairo &   Casablanca    Doha      Dubai         Jeddah      Manama          Muscat            Riyadh         Sharm el
                                                          Giza                  center                                                                                 Sheikh

                                                                                   ADR (US$)         Occupancy (%)

 Source: STR Global

   Dubai ADR and occupancy vs international markets, YTD September 2022

                                                                                                                                 65%
                   350                                                                                             68%                                                            70%
                   300                                                          67%                                                                                               60%
                                                                                          71%                                                   55%
ADR/RevPAR (US$)

                   250                                     70%                                                                                                                    50%
                                                                                                                                                                                        Occupancy (%)

                                                                                                                                                              60%
                   200                                                59%                               62%                                                                       40%
                                         63%     50%
                   150
                                                                                                                                                                          51%     30%
                         45%
                   100                                                                                                                                                            20%

                   50                                                                                                                                                             10%
                                         116

                                                  115

                                                             175

                                                                       138

                                                                                  217

                                                                                           202

                                                                                                         135

                                                                                                                     266

                                                                                                                                  306

                                                                                                                                                 201

                                                                                                                                                                166
                           73

                                                                                                                                                                             99

                   0                                                                                                                                                              0%
                         Beijing     Berlin     Beunos     Dubai      Hong      London Los Angeles Madrid         New York       Paris          Rome       Sydney         Tokyo
                                                 Aires                Kong

                                                                                   ADR (US$)         Occupancy (%)

   Source: STR Global

                                                                                                                                                                                             09
Dubai’s residential market
Amidst global economic uncertainty and recessionary fears, Dubai’s status as
a safe haven has attracted investors during 2022, with transaction levels rising
year-on-year surpassing 2019 levels.
Review of 2022 performance                                                                                                  Dubai ranging from 38% to 43% and Deira was the only location
Average sales prices for residential property in Dubai increased                                                            to record a decline of 5%. Transaction volumes have increased by
by approximately 12% between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 to reach                                                                   56% YTD September 2022 when compared to the same period in
AED 1,203 per sq ft. Average rents have also increased by                                                                   2021 and have more than doubled from 2019 levels for the same
approximately 19% over the same period, rising to AED 73 per                                                                period. Secondary market properties constituted 55% of the total
sq ft as of September 2022. Gross yields reflect 6.1%, compared                                                             transactions in the first nine months of this year, with Business
to 5.7% in YTD September 2021 as rental growth has outpaced                                                                 Bay, Dubai Marina and Jumeirah Village Circle recording the
growth in prices.                                                                                                           highest number of transactions.

The average trend masks a much more varied sub-market picture                                                               The market continues to be dominated by cash buyers while
with Mohammed Bin Rashed City, Palm Jumeirah and Business                                                                   demand for affordable villas and townhouses from existing
Bay being the top three sales price growth areas year-on-year                                                               residents has driven rental activity in this segment. Rents in this
against Dubai Land, Dubai South and Dubai Creek Harbour as                                                                  category began to recover by the end of 2020, while the apartment
the locations with the highest price declines. By comparison, rent                                                          segment began to show signs of improved performance from the
increases were highest in Jumeirah, Palm Jumeirah and Downtown                                                              first half of 2021.

     Dubai residential sales prices, Q1 2007 to Q3 2022
                                        Lehman Bros.                                                            Last market                                            Travel restrictions and
                                           collapse                                                                peak                                                 lockdown measures

                             1,600
                             1,400
    Price (AED per sq ft)

                             1,200
                             1,000
                              800
                              600
                              400
                              200
                               0
                                        2007

                                                      2008

                                                                    2009

                                                                             2010

                                                                                    2011

                                                                                             2012

                                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                     2014

                                                                                                                                    2015

                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                            2017

                                                                                                                                                                      2018

                                                                                                                                                                               2019

                                                                                                                                                                                          2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2022

                                                                                              Villa                Apartment                 Residential

     Dubai residential rents, Q1 2009 to Q3 2022

                                                                                           Last market                                                          Travel restrictions and
                                                                                              peak                                                               lockdown measures
                            80
                            70
                            60
Rent (AED per sq ft)

                            50
                            40
                            30
                            20
                            10
                            0
                                 2009

                                               2010

                                                             2011

                                                                           2012

                                                                                    2013

                                                                                               2014

                                                                                                            2015

                                                                                                                             2016

                                                                                                                                           2017

                                                                                                                                                         2018

                                                                                                                                                                     2019

                                                                                                                                                                                2020

                                                                                                                                                                                             2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2022

                                                                                              Villa                Apartment                 Dubai average
 Source: REIDIN
10
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Dubai residential sales prices by location, Q3 2022

                                                         Palm Jumeirah Villas
                                                         AED 4,831 47%

                                                Dubai Marina
                                                AED 1,536 5%
                                                                             Palm Jumeirah Apartments
                                  Jumeirah Lakes Towers                      AED 1,857 34%
                                  AED 1,045 2%
                                                                                           Downtown
                                                            Dubai Sports                   AED 2,159 14%
                                                            City
                                                          AED 724 -1.5%

                                                                                                             Business
                   Dubai South    Discovery
                                                                                                             Bay
                 AED 701 -17%     Gardens                                       Duabi Land
                                                                                                             AED 1,732    27%
                                  AED 556 12%                                   AED 787 -11%

                                       Al Furjan
                                                                                               Mohammed Bin
                                       AED 918 14%
                                                                                               Rashid City
                                                    Arabian Ranches Villas                     AED 2,076 51%                       Dubai Creek Harbour
                                                                                                                                   AED 1,682   -4%
                                                      AED 1,191 -3%

                                                                                                           AED 539       18%

                                                                Positive         Neutral       Negative

Source: REIDIN
Note: Sales prices are quoted in AED per sq ft with year-on-year change in %

     Metric              Apartment                Apartment                  Villa rent       Villa sales price    Dubai average          Dubai average
                            rent                  sales price              (AED per sq ft     (AED per sq ft)      rent (AED per            sales price
                        (AED per sq ft          (AED per sq ft)              per year)                             sq ft per year)        (AED per sq ft)
                          per year)

      2021                   AED 64                AED 1,027                   AED 58            AED 1,126                AED 61             AED 1,076

      2022                   AED 74                AED 1,105                   AED 70            AED 1,302                AED 73             AED 1,203

   Y-o-y trend
                               17%                     8%                       21%                 16%                    19%                  12%

                                                                                                                                                         11
Dubai’s office market
  Office rents have recovered to pre-pandemic levels registering an increase
  of 12% YTD in September 2022 compared to the same period last year.
  Occupiers continue to assess relocation and consolidation opportunities in an
  environment of increasing fit-out costs.
  Review of 2022 performance                                                                                                                                                             The majority of government services, banks and professional
  The post-pandemic workplace forms an integral part of corporate                                                                                                                        services companies have returned to the office while media,
  occupier recovery strategies as issues of staff retention and                                                                                                                          technology and design firms have largely embraced hybrid working
  employee engagement came to the fore over the last two                                                                                                                                 models. Demand for office space continues to be defined by
  years. The office market in Dubai has historically been driven by                                                                                                                      growth in business operations in key sectors of the economy.
  international companies looking to establish a regional market
  base in the Emirate. This segment of the market typically seeks                                                                                                                               Dubai employment in financial and business services, 2015 to 2022f

  prime central business district (CBD) properties, where rents were
  the quickest to recover in 2022.                                                                                                                                                                                   600                                                                                                                                       15%

  Limited grade A stock within or in proximity to the central                                                                                                                                                        500                                                                                                                                       10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    12%
  business district of DIFC/Downtown has allowed building owners                                                                                                                                                                                                          10%                                                      1%            3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     400                                                               8%                                                                        5%
  to maintain rent levels this year. Inflation linked rental escalations                                                                                                                                                                                  3%
                                                                                                                                                                                            Persons in Thousands

  have impacted ongoing leases for corporate tenants, even as the                                                                                                                                                    300                                                                                                                                        -0%
  role of the office continues to be reassessed. Capital investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     200                                                                                                                                        -5%
  for fit-outs has previously been provided on stock outside of CBD
  locations as an incentive to tenants and this trend is expected to                                                                                                                                                 100                                                                                                                                       -10%
  continue.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0                                                                                                                                 -15%
  Dubai Statistics Centre forecasts GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2015         2016 2017                    2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f
  2022 led by the hospitality, food and beverage (F&B), real estate,
  wholesale and retail, transport, manufacturing and financial                                                                                                                                                                                        Employment - financial and business service
  services sectors. As a result, hiring levels across key sectors is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Year-on-year change (%)
  expected to increase and will have a positive impact on office
                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Oxford Economics; Note: f:forecast
  demand.
      Dubai average office rents, Q1 2015 to Q3 2022

                         125 126 125 126 125 124 124 124 122                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         140
                                                             121 121 121 119 119
                                                                                 116 115 114
                                                                                             112 110 108                                    110 114
                                                                                                         106 103                    105 107                                                                                                                                                                                                                          120
                                                                                                                 101 100 99 101 102
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100
AED per sq ft per year

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      80

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      60

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      40

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                         Q1-2015

                                   Q2-2015

                                             Q3-2015

                                                       Q4-2015

                                                                 Q1-2016

                                                                           Q2-2016
                                                                                     Q3-2016

                                                                                               Q4-2016

                                                                                                         Q1-2017

                                                                                                                   Q2-2017

                                                                                                                             Q3-2017

                                                                                                                                       Q4-2017

                                                                                                                                                 Q1-2018

                                                                                                                                                           Q2-2018

                                                                                                                                                                     Q3-2018

                                                                                                                                                                               Q1-2022

                                                                                                                                                                                         Q1-2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q2-2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q3-2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q4-2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q1-2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Q2-2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q3-2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q4-2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Q1-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q2-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q3-2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Q1-2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q1-2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q2-2022

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q3-2022

      Source: REIDIN
      Note: Rents quoted above exclude service charge

  12
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

                                                                                                          WTC/SZR**             Deira
                                                                                                          AED 126               AED 83
                                                                                           DIFC
                                                                                           AED 259

                                TECOM                               Downtown
                                                                    AED 202
                                AED 165

    JLT*
    AED 81
                              Al Barsha
                                                                                                     Business                  Al Garhoud
                              AED 82                                                                 Bay
                                                                                                                               AED 76
                                                                                                     AED 105

                                                                                                                            Bur Dubai
                                                                                                                            AED 87

Rents are quoted AED per sq ft per year
Rents are average achieved rents for shell and core offices exclusive of service charges
*Jumeirah Lakes Towers
**World Trade Centre/Sheikh Zayed Road

 Area           DIFC          Bur             Al           Deira          WTC/           Al             Busi-    Down-         TECOM          JLT        Dubai
                             Dubai          Garh-                         SZR          Barsha           ness     town                                    aver-
                                             oud                                                        Bay                                               age

 2020            216            90             75            86            111               77          84           177        166           71          101

 2021            239            82             69            80            109               75          87           164        167           72          102

 Y-o-y
 trend           8%             6%           10%             4%           16%               9%          21%       23%            -1%          13%          12%

 2022            259            87             76            83            126               82          105          202        165           81          114

Source: REIDIN, Deloitte

                                                                                                                                                                 13
Dubai’s retail market
Consumer spending growth fueled retail sector recovery in both online and
traditional mall formats.
Review of 2022 performance                                                     UAE retail sales volume growth, 2017 to 2026f
The EIU estimates that the total UAE retail sales volume will
increase by approximately 4.2% in 2022, with sales expected to                                         9%                                 7.7%
increase by 3.9% a year on average over the remainder of the                                           6%                                        4.2%
                                                                                                                                                         5.3%
                                                                                                                                                                4.0% 3.6%
forecast period.                                                                                                                                                            2.7%

                                                                         Retail sales volume growth
                                                                                                       3% 1.9%
                                                                                                                   0.9% 1.5%
                                                                                                       0%
Emaar Malls, which owns and operates approximately 6.8 million
sq ft of retail gross leasable area (GLA)1, registered 24% growth in                                   -3%

revenue during the first nine months of 2022, when compared to                                         -6%
the same period in 2021. Meanwhile average occupancy for the                                           -9%
Emaar portfolio, which includes Dubai Mall, Dubai Marina Mall,                                                                    -9.7%
                                                                                                      -12%
Gold & Diamond Park, Souk Al Bahar and other community retail
                                                                                                             2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f
centres stood at 96% as of September 2022. Dubai Hills Mall, the
newest entrant among the portfolio opened in February 2022 and
had achieved an occupancy of 87% as of September 2022.                         Source: EIU                       a:actual, e:EIU estimate, f: EIU forecast

Meanwhile, Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) point of sale (POS) data2 shows       For residents, ‘other malls’, which include smaller community cen-
that overall, consumer spending increased by 20% from January           tres and convenience retail, as well as ‘non-mall’ outlets continue
to September 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 and               to dominate in 2022 due to their convenience and proximity to
retail sector growth was 15%, with non-retail up 29%. According to      residential areas. Majid Al Futtaim footfall data reveals an increase
the MAF data, fashion spending was the highest growth category          of 15% in mall visitors during YTD September 2022 compared to
increasing 23% from 2021 levels and gaining 25% on 2019 levels.         the same period in 2021.
January to March recorded the strongest sales through YTD
September, contributing 44% of the growth for the first nine            Inflation remains a concern for consumers and is expected to
months compared to the same period in 2021. This mirrored the           impact the overall discretionary spending in 2023. Omnichannel
highest performing months in the hospitality sector as highlighted      formats are allowing consumers to search for discounts and deals,
previously.                                                             with retailers focusing on a seamless shopping experience through
                                                                        an increased use of data and technology. The UAE e-commerce
Dubai consumer preferences                                              market is expected to reach US$ 9.2 billion in 2026 according to
The Dubai Mall and Mall of the Emirates have historically been          the analysis by the Dubai Chamber of Commerce. This growth
the majority of the demand from visitors, collectively capturing        will be supported by increasing mobile e-commerce transactions
51% of total tourist retail demand in 2022. Demand from tourists        through the availability of applications.
recovered during 2022 due to ease of travel and the lifting of re-
strictions. Additionally, retail centres continue to rely on resident
footfall and spend.

Note:
(1) Emaar Malls, Q3 2021 Results Presentation
(2) Majid Al Futtaim ‘State of the UAE Retail Economy’ Q3 2022 Report

14
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

   Cannibalising shopping malls:
   how does a newly opened asset and its
   location affect consumer behaviour?
   Spatial cannibalisation, also referred to as, customer loss to competition
   or to one’s own assets, is of crucial importance to retailers and commercial
   developers alike.
   Deloitte has partnered with Perigon AI to analyse the impact of                               credit card spend allows spending patterns for established centres
   a new mall on existing retail developments. If you could reliably                             and the impact of new centres to be assessed.
   estimate spatial cannibalisation when planning for retail expansion,
   developing a new mall or monitoring the performance of your                                   As a case study to demonstrate this approach we review
   assets, will consumers previously populating other locations switch                           the impact the newly opened Dubai Hills Mall has had on it's
   to your location? How does the location, e-commerce, marketing                                catchment. Below we see the weekly relative footfall in Dubai Hills
   campaigns and tenant mix affect this expansion?                                               Mall starting from week 1 of operations. We can see a steady
                                                                                                 growth in the number of visitors to the mall in the first few weeks,
   Utilising mathematical modelling and AI to process a vast array of                            mounting to a spike in week 6.
   data ranging from human mobility data to geographically granular

                    1.0                                                                                                  1. Weekly relative footfall
Relative footfall

                                                                                                                         A spike in visitors to Dubai Hills Mall
                    0.8
                                                                                                                         in the first few weeks, called a honeymoon
                    0.6                                                                                                  period , known as a phase of discovery,
                                                                                                                         exploration and 'checking it out'.
                    0.4

                    0.2
                                                                                                                            Dubai Hills Mall visitation
                     0
                          1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
                                                               Weeks after opening
   Note: The indicated relative footfall is a score obtained from streams of big data, depicting footfall on a given
   week between its all-time minimum (0) and all-time maximum (1). As seen on the graph, footfall in Dubai Hills
   Mall reached its maximum on week 6 during the period analysed.

   2. Where do these customers come from?                                                        Ranches - Mira Community axis, along Umm Suqeim Street.
   We see the trade areas clustered around Dubai Hills Mall (green                               The honeymoon period attracted customers from a wide range of
   pin) in the first week, expanding to cover larger swathes of Dubai                            neighbourhoods such as Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina, and JLT,
   reaching peak coverage on week 6. The primary trade areas of                                  considered as high-end central high-end central areas with an
   the mall then come back to 'normal' with the mall and the Arabian                             abundant supply of retail destinations.

   Week 1                                                                   Week 6                                           Week 11

                                                                                                                                                                     15
5.0%                                                                                                                                      3. Mall cannibalisation
4.5%
                                                                                                                                          What happened to the visitation patterns
4.0%
                                                                                                                                          for other retail destinations after
3.5%
3.0%                                                                                                                                      Dubai Hills Mall opened? Is there any
2.5%                                                                                                                                      cannibalisation effect? As seen on the left
2.0%                                                                                                                                      graph, 4.6% of all of all regular visitors to
1.5%                                                                                                                                      Souq Extra Al Barsha 2 switched to Dubai
1.0%                                                                                                                                      Hills Mall. On the right tail, 1.1% of all the
0.5%
                                                                                                                                          visitors to Mall of the Emirates switched to
0.0%     Souq    My City Arabian   The Lei-   Avenues Mudon AI Barsha Mira    Mead-      J3    The Village Club Vista    Mall of   Dana   Dubai Hills Mall. We can immediately see
         Extra Center AI Ranches    sure        Mall  Commu-   Mall  Commu-    ows      Mall      Mall       Mare         the      Mall
       AI Barsha Barsha Commu-     Center               nity           nity   Village                                   Emirates          that the retail destinations affected the
       2 Center            nity                        Center
                          Center                                                                                                          most are primarily community centers and
                                                                                                                                          smaller retail lifestyle destination concepts,
        Percentage of customers cannibalised by Dubai Hills Mall
                                                                                                                                          rather than big shopping malls.

                                                                                                                                          4. Cannibalisation string plot
                                                                                                                                          If we look at the spatial distribution of the
                                                                                                                                          retail destinations most cannibalised by
                                                                                                                                          Dubai Hills Mall, we can see an interesting
                                                                                                                                          pattern: They are concentrated near the
                                                                                                                                          mall, and spread along Umm Suqeim
                                                                                                                                          Street and its extension, Al Qudra Road
                                                                                                                                          (highlighted in blue), serving Dubai's
                                                                                                                                          outer communities, to include Al Barsha 2
                                                                                                                                          and Dubai Hills, to Arabian Ranches,
                                                                                                                                          Sustainable City, and beyond.

Mall cannibalisation                           1%      2%       3%      4%         5%

5. A quick look at the tenant mix at Dubai Hills Mall
Dubai Hills Mall is placed on the artery connecting the upscale outer communities to Downtown Dubai. Dubai Hills Mall has accordingly
been positioned to attract residents from these communities as its primary trade area. The tenant mix reveals how community-oriented
its offerings are, to include family entertainment, F&B concepts, DIY hardware shops and barbershops. We can also see a selection of
comparison goods, offering brands seen in Dubai's 'super regional centres' in a more accessible format.

16
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Dubai’s industrial and logistics
market
Average warehouse rents continue to recover as demand from logistics
companies remains buoyant and freight movements at the airports surpass
2020 levels.
Review of 2022 performance                                                             UAE imports and exports, 2018 to 2025f
The two Dubai airports (DWC and DXB) have a combined capacity
                                                                                                   500
of almost 2.8 million tons and are supported by airport adjacent as
well as city-wide warehousing facilities. At the end of 2021, freight
                                                                                                   400
movements at the two airports had increased in comparison to
the 2020 levels, although they were still below 2019 levels. DXB
                                                                                                   300
is currently the third busiest hub in the world for international
                                                                                     US$ billion

air freight with rapid transfer time to Port Rashid or Jebel Ali.
                                                                                                   200
Meanwhile, DWC’s dedicated bonded link to Jebel Ali Port has
enabled a rapid transit of sea to air cargo, supporting a swifter
                                                                                                   100
recovery for the industrial and logistics market in Dubai.
                                                                                                     -
E-commerce focused zones such as Dubai CommerCity and Dubai                                              2009   2020    2021f      2022f    2023f   2024f   2025f
South’s e-commerce cluster have been added to the supply in                                                     Imports USD$bn      Exports US$bn
recent years, while JAZFA is also developing additional logistics
                                                                                       Source: Fitch Solutions; Note: f:forecast
capacity. Meanwhile, there are still limited international grade
specification warehouses in other parts of Dubai and this could
lead to redevelopment projects in older areas such as Al Quoz,
Umm Ramool among others.

Dubai key logistics indicators, 2021 vs 2022 (millions)

       Metric                            DWC                                 DXB                                   Jebal Ali                        Road freight
                                   cargo throughput                   cargo throughput                             tonnage                            tonnes
                                                                                                                 throughput

        2021f                             0.94 m                             2.65 m                                 7.05 m                            30.64 m
        Y-o-y
        trend                                5%                                 3%                                     1%                               3%

        2022f                             0.99 m                             2.73 m                                 7.14 m                            31.46 m
Source: Fitch Solutions
f: forecast

Dubai average warehouse rents, Q3 2022

                          JAFZA
                          AED 22

                                                                                                                                   DAFZA
                                                                                                                                   AED 26
                Dubai South                                              Al Quoz
                AED 26                            DIP                    AED 35
                                                  AED 26

Rents are quoted AED per sq ft per year
Rents are average achieved rents for purpose built warehouses exclusive of service charges
Source: Deloitte
                                                                                                                                                                    17
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

Key contacts
Stefan Burch
Partner
Head of Real Estate
Deloitte Middle East
sburch@deloitte.com

Oliver Morgan
Partner
Head of Real Estate Development
Deloitte Middle East
omorgan@deloitte.com

Jaime Liversidge
Director
Head of Real Estate Valuations
Deloitte Middle East
jliversidge@deloitte.com

Dunia Joulani
Director
Head of Travel, Hospitality and Leisure (EMEA)
Deloitte Middle East
djoulani@deloitte.com

Manika Dhama
Director
Head of Research, Real Estate Development
Deloitte Middle East
mdhama@deloitte.com

18
Middle East Real Estate Predictions | 2023

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