Met Office science strategy 2010-2015 - Unified science and modelling for unified prediction
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Met Office science strategy 2010–2015 Unified science and modelling for unified prediction Integrating our research and prediction capabilities to deliver world-leading weather and climate services
Summary This document outlines the top-level science strategy for the Met Office, which responds to the increasing demand for seamless prediction systems across all timescales, from hours to decades, and for the atmosphere, oceans and land surface. It recognises the unique position of the Met Office in having world-class weather forecasting and climate prediction in one place. Exploiting the benefits of those synergies between the science and modelling of weather, oceans and climate, lies at the heart of this strategy. The strategy takes the new agenda of seamless science and prediction and focuses the Met Office research agenda around four major science challenges: (i) forecasting hazardous weather from hours to decades; (ii) water cycle and quantitative precipitation forecasting on all scales; (iii) monthly to decadal prediction in a changing climate; and (iv) sensitivity of the Earth system to human activities. It is advocated that an increasing emphasis on higher resolution modelling, a focus on research into processes and phenomena in the ocean-atmosphere-land-cryosphere system, and an enhanced use of Earth observation are the necessary scientific foundations for tackling these challenges. A new research structure is therefore proposed, aimed at delivering efficiencies and accelerating progress, and setting in place mechanisms for greater integration and innovation in the science base. The strategy also considers other elements that are required to maintain the Met Office as a world-leading scientific organisation. These include a more strategic approach to partnerships, both nationally and internationally, delivery of the necessary infrastructure for research and services, improved processes for staff recruitment and development, and better methods for communicating and disseminating our science.
1. Context In the past, the separation between weather and climate
research has been essential and understandable because
numerical weather prediction was far more advanced and
Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather and climate sophisticated and because the science of climate prediction was
has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific relatively immature. That is increasingly no longer the case.
endeavour. This is partly because the remarkable increase in With the growing appreciation of the importance of hazardous
skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and weather in driving some of the most profound impacts of
more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of climate variability and change, and with the developing interest
decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now in monthly to decadal forecasts from users, there is a clear need
widely accepted and the realisation is growing rapidly that it for a more seamless approach to modelling and prediction. At
will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly the same time observations of the Earth system, especially from
or indirectly. space, are providing ever-increasing information about the
current state of the full system, essential for initialising climate
The challenge for the Met Office is to remain at the cutting- forecasts. Climate science is now sufficiently mature that
edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the providing a structured operational delivery of climate forecasts,
atmosphere, oceans and fully coupled climate system. This will to underpin a wide range of services, is a logical development.
provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all
sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and
climatic conditions, whether now or in the future.
Seamless forecasting services
Forecast lead-time
Observations
and past data Hour Day Week Month Season Year Decade Century
Mitigation policies
Infrastructure planning
Homeland & international security
Adaptation strategies
Regulator standards
Financial & property portfolio risk management
Climate
vulnerability
analysis Investment strategy
Aid agencies & international development
Market trading
Maintenance planning
Scenario
Insurance/re-insurance hazards
planning
Resource planning: energy, water, food
Operations planning
Disruption planning
Weather warnings
Emergency response
Proposed seamless forecasting system and related services.
01
The Met Office is uniquely placed to deliver the proposed The first is access to increasing computer power which has
seamless approach since it has world-class capabilities in enabled much higher resolution to be used in modelling.
weather and climate prediction. It has a modelling system that For weather forecasting this has meant the ability to run
can span all the scales of interest from the individual cloud operational models at cloud system resolving scale (~1 km).
to the whole globe, and one that can increasingly include all This has the potential to deliver a step change in our ability
components of the system — ocean, land, ecosystems and to forecast the likelihood and location of extreme weather
ice. This means that the same science and modelling can events, especially heavy rainfall. The capability to run models
potentially be applied to forecasting tomorrow’s weather as at very high resolution has also reinvigorated the concept of
it can to predicting what the statistics of weather — especially computational laboratories for the explicit modelling of key
hazardous weather — may be like ten or 100 years from now. processes and interactions in the atmosphere, which will be
critical for improving physical parametrizations.
One of the key strengths of the Met Office is the direct pull-
through of research into improved products and services. For climate prediction, increased computing power has meant
Access to core scientific expertise is vital for delivering the best that it is now possible to perform simulations which represent
service to our customers. Similarly, understanding the needs of synoptic weather systems more accurately (~50 km) and are
our customers enriches the science we do. A major factor in our closer to the global resolutions used in weather forecasting. At
success as an organisation has been the integration of core and the same time, the resolution of the ocean models (~1/4°) is
applied research. As the climate changes and societies’ needs beginning to capture the effects of eddies and is approaching
for weather and climate information grow, it will be crucial that that used in ocean forecasting.
we maintain that dialogue to ensure that our investment in
long-term, strategic research is made wisely. The second factor is the realisation that we are already in the
position where some level of climate change is unavoidable
and that society will need to adapt sooner rather than later.
In achieving a more unified and seamless approach, the
Even without climate change, society is increasingly vulnerable
Met Office is likely to realise some significant advantages
to hazardous weather and natural climate variability. This
and efficiencies in its science, model development and
means that information is required not at a global scale, but
underpinning technical capabilities. With appropriate
at a regional and local scale and increasingly for lead-times
reorganisation to build on the synergies between weather
of months to decades rather than for the end of the century.
forecasting and climate prediction, and between core and
At the same time, there is a growing awareness that the most
applied research, the Met Office will be in the best possible
serious impacts of climate change will be felt through changes
position to take a world lead in weather and climate services. It
in rainfall patterns, extremes of climate variability, and the
is this that has set the context for the proposed restructuring of intensity and frequency of hazardous weather events. This
Met Office research and development (R&D). new agenda is revolutionising climate science and prediction,
and the urgency of the problem is requiring an increasingly
operational delivery of climate services. This is recognised
2. Drivers of change by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and was
addressed by the 3rd World Climate Conference (WCC-3) held
in 2009, the key outcome of which is to establish a Global
There are a number of drivers of change — both external and Framework for Climate Services.
internal — which make a new strategy essential for the Met
Office to deliver the best weather and climate services, most Both factors, increased computing power, and the new
effectively and efficiently. These drivers reflect the changing international agenda for seamless prediction and climate
nature of international weather and climate science and the services, make a more unified approach to weather forecasting
services that society demands, the challenges of acquiring the and climate prediction practical and desirable, and are
levels of supercomputing needed to deliver that science, and therefore important drivers of change in the focus and
the undoubted funding pressures on the Met Office in the structure of the Met Office Science Programme.
coming years. These will require us to be more efficient and to
look beyond the Met Office for the intellectual and technical Finally, the expansion of our service provision to include the
capability and capacity that we’ll need. Climate Service will mean more investment in applied research
in order to provide the new products and services. This means
In the last few years, two major factors have served to there must be greater alignment of research across weather
bring about revolutions in weather forecasting and climate and climate science, and continuing efforts to seek synergies
prediction, and to increasingly erode the traditional and rationalisation in the products and services we provide. All
boundaries between weather and climate science. these internal factors are drivers of change if we are to deliver
to our full potential within the likely budgetary constraints.
02
The increasingly challenging nature of the science that
3. Science imperatives underpins our observational, modelling and prediction
activities is an important driver of change. The Met Office will
need to be in a position with its partners to drive the science
Complex fluid-flows in the atmosphere and oceans are a
forward on many fronts in order to tackle what we regard
fundamental feature of the Earth system. They transport
as the four major challenges to which the Met Office must
energy, momentum, and material substances within and
respond in the coming decade. All transcend the boundaries
between system components. These flows occur over a
between weather and climate science, and thus drive us
wide range of spatial scales, and evolve over a wide range
towards a more integrated approach to our research. These
of timescales. ‘Small’ scales of motion that are known to be
can be summarised as follows.
important cannot be simulated directly in global models on
current computers and must therefore be parametrized in
terms of resolved scales. 3.1 Forecasting hazardous weather from
hours to decades
A clear imperative is to develop models of much higher
Hazardous weather covers not just intense rainfall and
resolution so as to be able to simulate explicitly flows down to
damaging winds, but also heatwaves, poor air quality
smaller scales and to capture potential non-linear interactions
and coastal impacts, such as storm surges. Whether it be
between different space and time scales, and between
forecasting the local detail a few hours or a few days ahead,
different components of the Earth system. This brings further
or whether it be assessing what climate change may mean for
benefits in terms of exploiting the wealth of information
the frequency and intensity of such weather events in future
in Earth observation systems through more advanced data
decades, the science that underpins our understanding and
assimilation systems and model evaluation. It will be vital
ability to model hazardous weather will be common across all
that our modelling capability is underpinned by the ongoing
timescales.
provision of weather and climate observations of sufficient
quality to initialise predictions, evaluate forecast skill and
Improving forecasts of hazardous weather requires moving to
monitor changes in the climate system.
much higher resolution in all our models, on all timescales. In
weather forecasting from a few hours to a day or so ahead,
We know that building higher resolution models is necessary
it means coming down to the local level so that fundamental
for advancing weather and climate prediction capabilities, but
atmospheric processes, such as cumulus convection, and
increased resolution alone is not sufficient. At all resolutions,
the local landscape are represented more completely. For
a continuing effort to improve the parametrizations of sub-
coastal regions there may be real benefits from including an
grid scale processes in both the atmosphere and oceans is
interactive coastal ocean in the model.
an absolute imperative. This requires maintaining our skills in
combining theory, observations and modelling to understand
how the atmosphere and oceans work and how sub-grid scale
processes should be represented.
Long-term vision
for delivering local
information on
the likelihood and
characteristics of N x Global predictions at
Example of a cloud system
resolving simulation showing
multi-scale organisation of clouds
and weather systems (Courtesy:
Earth Simulator Centre,
Yokohama, Japan).
Defining the initial conditions for local forecasts, how to Recommendations:
use more unconventional observations and develop the • To pursue an aggressive strategy of increasing model
observational base, such as radar and lidar, and how these resolution both horizontally and vertically and developing
can be linked to variables within the model, all present new improved parametrizations of sub-grid scale processes,
challenges. At these scales, especially in convective situations, within the constraints of available computing resources.
even a forecast for a few hours ahead will need to be • To exploit more fully our capability for local weather
probabilistic in formulation. nowcasting and forecasting, by improving the methods
for initialising, and for performing and interpreting
For forecast lead-times beyond 2–3 days, the skill of the global probabilistic predictions with UKV model.
forecast will be critical in setting the context for hazardous
• To increase our understanding of the large-scale context
weather. This will require continued investment in global
of hazardous weather and to improve the ability of
data assimilation research to exploit new Earth observations,
global models to capture those key weather and climate
continued reduction in model biases, especially in the Tropics
regimes.
and related to tropical convection, by developing improved
sub-grid scale parametrizations, and a concerted effort to • To develop a joined-up approach to the applied science
move to higher resolution both horizontally and vertically. of translating hazardous weather into societal impacts at
the regional and local level.
In climate prediction, providing robust information on the
statistics of future hazardous weather at regional and local 3.2 Water cycle and quantitative
levels means moving to global model resolutions that capture
synoptic weather systems with greater fidelity, much as is
precipitation forecasting
needed in global weather forecasting. At the same time, we
Water is a fundamental ingredient of the Earth system,
must understand more fully the weather and climate regimes
supporting plant, animal and marine life. Water vapour
in which hazardous weather forms, such as El Niño cycles and
constitutes the Earth’s most abundant and important
its global teleconnections, and extra-tropical phenomena such
greenhouse gas, and water in its various forms (vapour,
as blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This means that
liquid, solid) determines the characteristics and spatio-
our global weather and climate models must be more skilful
temporal evolution of the Earth system. Latent heat release
at representing weather regimes and global teleconnections.
from precipitation, particularly in the Tropics, is a major
There will continue to be a need to downscale global and driver of the global circulation, which acts to transport heat,
regional climate information to the local level, however much moisture and momentum around the climate system. Natural
the resolution of our prediction models improves. Again, the ecosystems depend on precipitation, and so water has a
expertise developed in local weather forecasting for the UK fundamental role to play in other cycles of the Earth system
can be carried through into informing how to downscale such as the carbon and nitrogen cycles.
regional climate predictions. The implementation of the 1.5
km UKV1 forecast model has already demonstrated a step The atmospheric water cycle is the driving force of weather
change in capturing extreme weather events, especially and climate, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of
intense rainfall. Our strategy is to bring together regional precipitation — too much, too little, at the wrong time, in
modelling capabilities across weather and climate to exploit the wrong place — have profound effects on all aspects of
the synergies and deliver benefits. life. Despite decades of research, quantitative precipitation
forecasting (QPF) remains an enormous challenge.
Finally, in both weather forecasting and climate prediction,
how hazardous weather translates into effects on society In mid-latitudes, rain-bearing systems are typically synoptic
requires much closer integration with the impacts community. or finer in scale and this presents particular constraints on the
We are already experienced in the applied science of resolution of the modelling systems we must use. Significant
translating weather forecasts into user-driven products and advances have been achieved recently with the development
services. In many cases, the same concepts and methodologies of the UKV model. This has the potential to provide better
can be taken through into the climate area, thus realising the guidance on the intensity of precipitation, especially in
significant benefits of the joint presence of weather forecasting situations with strong synoptic forcing, as was the case
and climate prediction within the Met Office. for the Cockermouth floods in November 2009. However,
considerable research is still required on the initiation of
1
Variable resolution regional model with 1.5km resolution over the UK.
convective storms and on how to include the stochastic nature
04
of convective precipitation in the prediction system. As well as Our goal must be to develop a more holistic approach to
the modelling challenges, maintaining and developing further understanding, modelling and predicting the global and
the observational network — especially the radar network — regional terrestrial water cycle and its role in the impacts of
will be necessary to initialise and verify model predictions. hazardous weather, climate variability and climate change.
This must extend from the prediction of hydrological extremes
In the Tropics, rainfall is dominated by cumulus convection, (floods and droughts), to an integrated assessment of water,
which itself is organised on a vast range of different space food and fibre.
and time scales, from the diurnal cycle of individual clouds to
the planetary monsoon systems of Australasia and Africa. The Recommendations:
challenge of representing the multi-scale nature of tropical • To develop further our capability to produce and interpret
convection in global models is widely recognised. This limits probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall events over the
our ability to forecast beyond a few days in the Tropics and UK with lead-times of hours to days, especially those of
potentially compromises our global extended range and convective origin.
longer term predictions. • To ensure that the observational network is adequate
for initialising and verifying quantitative precipitation
A concerted effort to use cloud system resolving models, forecasts at the local and regional level.
combined with new satellite observations of cloud structures,
• To develop the capability to perform ultra-high resolution
to develop new understanding of organised convection is
process studies of convection, cloud microphysics
a central part of our strategy for tackling this key problem.
and precipitation processes to inform improved
Such studies will also provide information on the multi-scale
parametrizations in global and regional models, and to
interactions between physics and dynamics and guide the
test these against field studies and new Earth observation
design of stochastic-based parametrizations. These are likely
datasets.
to gain in importance as the multi-scale nature of ocean and
atmospheric flows is increasingly understood. • To develop a more holistic approach to the terrestrial
water cycle with particular emphasis on hydrology,
Over the last decade or so, the definition of the global water the hydrological and related impacts of variations and
cycle has evolved from being just a physical system to one changes in precipitation intensity and frequency.
that describes the combined effects of physical, biological,
biogeochemical and human processes. This system recognises
that humans interfere with the global water cycle in many
ways through, for example, the increasing extraction of
water from rivers and aquifers (more than 50% of easily The global hydrological cycle
available freshwater is currently used
by humans), irrigation of crops, and
changes in land use that affect evapo-
transpiration and alter the nature and
seasonality of run-off.
Key issues for climate change that
hinge on the global water cycle
include: (i) the strength and variability
of global and regional hydrological
cycles in a warmer world; (ii)
freshwater forcing and salinity budget
of the global oceans; (iii) terrestrial
ecosystems and their dependence on
water availability; (iv) fate of polar
ice-caps and glaciers with consequent
sea-level rise. Water, its availability and
its quality, lies at the core of many of
the impacts of climate variability and
change, and adequate access to water
will have major implications, societally,
economically and politically, in the
coming decades.Concept of an Ensemble Prediction
System and the various sources Time
of uncertainty that need to be Forecast uncertainty
represented.
Initial condition
uncertainty
Model
uncertainty
Analysis
Climatology Deterministic
Model uncertainty arises from forecast
stochastic, unresolved processes
3.3 Monthly to decadal prediction in a and parameter uncertainty
changing climate
The societal requirement for climate information is changing. role on timescales of hours to days, especially in the Tropics.
Across the UK government and the business sectors, it is The question of when and how to include an interactive
now generally accepted that the global climate is warming ocean in global weather prediction needs to be addressed,
and the requirement to adapt to current and unavoidable but potentially offers the opportunity for greater synergy
future climate change is growing. The emphasis is towards between global weather and ocean forecasting, and between
more regional and impacts-based predictions, with a focus global weather and climate prediction. This would also
on monthly to decadal timescales. It is clear that there is an naturally provide a bridge between atmosphere and ocean
increasing requirement for robust and more detailed science data assimilation, and ensure a consistent approach to
to evaluate adaptation and planning options, and this is one global forecast initialisation across all timescales from days to
of the key drivers of our strategy to move to much higher decades.
resolutions in our climate models. In addition, even without
global warming, society is becoming more vulnerable to Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now well established in
natural climate variability through increasing exposure of extended range and climate forecasting, but the techniques
populations and infrastructure, so the need for reliable to represent forecast uncertainty and sample adequately
monthly to inter-annual predictions is growing, especially in the phase space of the forecasts are quite diverse. These
the Tropics. range from initial condition uncertainty (including optimal
perturbations and ensemble data assimilation), through
We know that the frequency and intensity of drought, stochastic physics to represent the influence of unresolved
flooding and heatwaves appear to be changing, and processes, to the use of perturbed parameters in the
that these extreme events are most likely to occur when parametrizations to represent model uncertainty. These
natural climate variability reinforces anthropogenic climate methods essentially address different aspects of forecast and
change. This fact alone drives the need for initialised climate model uncertainty, but there is currently little understanding
predictions. These take into account the current phase of of the relative importance of each for forecasts on different
natural climate variability and combine it with expected lead-times. A new research activity is proposed that will bring
increases in greenhouse gases to produce improved near-term together the various techniques used in weather forecasting
climate predictions. and climate prediction to develop a seamless EPS.
In the coming decades we are going into uncharted territory Monthly to decadal prediction is still in its infancy and
as far as the Earth’s climate is concerned; and, an important the potential predictability in the climate system for these
way of building confidence in our models, and hence our timescales is largely unknown and probably underestimated
projections, is by continuously testing them in daily to because of model shortcomings. A key activity must therefore
seasonal to decadal predictions. It will be crucially important be the evaluation of model performance with a greater focus
that we build effective links across the forecasts for these on processes and phenomena that are fundamental for
different timescales and how these forecasts are then used by delivering improved confidence in the predictions. Recent
various sectors. research has already shown that higher horizontal and vertical
resolution has the potential to increase significantly the
These new challenges require a step change in the range predictability in parts of the world where it is currently low,
of climate predictions we produce and the expert advice such as western Europe. At the same time, more sophisticated
we give. Correspondingly, these have implications for the measures of defining and verifying forecast skill for the
scientific research that needs to be undertaken. Attaining a different lead-times need to be developed. These should take
seamless prediction system, as outlined earlier, which exploits account of users’ needs, and therefore stronger links must be
the synergies across weather and climate, will present some established between the science and the service provision.
new scientific challenges.
Recommendations:
Initialised climate predictions require a definition of the • To bring together global atmosphere and ocean data
current state of the climate system, especially the oceans. assimilation and forecasting activities to advance the
Whilst we have expertise in independent atmosphere and development of more consistent coupled initialisation and
ocean data assimilations, we do not yet know whether a forecasting methodologies.
fully coupled data assimilation system is feasible. It is also
• To develop a seamless Ensemble Prediction System
increasingly apparent that the upper ocean may play a key
across timescales from days to decades, that considers all
sources of uncertainty.
06Holistic approach to Earth
system modelling which includes
Water Physical
demand Urbanisation
management options and human climate
responses
Clouds Greenhouse
gases
Water cycle Impacts Carbon cycle
Permafrost
of climate Fires
Irrigation change
Damming Deforestation
Dust
Organic
Aerosols compounds
Ecosystems
Human Chemistry
Agriculture
emissions
Forestry
• To focus model evaluation on processes and phenomena behaviour of ice in the climate system — collapse of major
in the climate system which have the potential to improve ice-sheets, loss of Arctic sea-ice and melting permafrost
predictability, and to develop measures of forecast skill — and the potential for massive releases of methane from
that reflect more directly users’ needs. ocean hydrates. Much of the science behind these is still very
immature and tackling them will require a multi-disciplinary
3.4 Sensitivity of the Earth system to human approach that must reach far beyond the Met Office. Our
unique role is the capability to bring this multi-disciplinary
activities science together within the holistic Earth system model so that
How sensitive the Earth system will be to human activities, the full range of interactions and feedbacks can be explored.
both greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change, remains
hugely uncertain, particularly beyond the next few decades. As our knowledge and understanding of the full Earth system
Reducing that uncertainty has to be one of the major develops, we will need to continually reassess what constitutes
challenges for the Met Office in the coming years. This will dangerous climate change, where and for whom, and what
require us to accelerate the development of holistic Earth new mitigation policies may mean for emissions, atmospheric
system models so that we can assess with greater confidence composition and longer term climate change. Avoiding
the risks of dangerous, abrupt or unexpected climate changes, dangerous climate change will require a much more detailed
especially those associated with biogeochemical cycles. examination of regional impacts and management options,
which must include socio-economic dependencies. We will
An essential component of understanding the sensitivity therefore seek to transform the Earth system model into an
of the Earth system to human activities is through detailed Integrated Assessment System by working with key socio-
monitoring and attribution studies. We will seek to maintain economic groups in the UK. Furthermore, radical solutions
our strengths in climate monitoring and climate change to global warming using geo-engineering must be properly
detection by engaging strongly with WMO initiatives to assessed and that can only be done using full Earth system
produce long-term, robust climate records, and by working and integrated assessment models.
actively within the GMES2 framework.
Recommendations:
Furthermore, we need to understand whether natural weather • To pursue an ambitious programme of research and
and climate variability may interact with global warming in development with our partners to deliver a world-leading,
a non-linear way to produce unprecedented changes in the holistic Earth system model.
Earth system. The attribution of current changes in climate, • To engage in international efforts to monitor the Earth
and increasingly in the Earth system, will require us to draw system and to detect possible changes.
on the best modelling and statistical methodologies. The
• To understand the influence of natural weather and
attribution of extreme events to global warming will grow
climate variability on Earth system processes and
in importance for decision-making around mitigation and
feedbacks, and to assess the importance of model
adaptation and it will be essential that we provide the best
resolution.
possible advice. So, just as increasing model resolution must
be a goal for weather forecasting and monthly to decadal • To develop robust methods for attributing changes in
climate prediction, it must also be an essential part of our climate, especially related to hazardous weather and
research on Earth system processes and feedbacks. climate extremes, by combining observations and models
of the Earth system.
Reducing uncertainties in model climate sensitivity, especially • To extend the Earth system model to include socio-
related to clouds, still needs more research. But the prospects economics, so that integrated cost/benefit analyses of
for progress are good, with new satellite observations and mitigation policies for avoiding dangerous climate change
process-based modelling. On the other hand, potentially can be made.
unexpected and rapid changes, which could lead to an • To reduce the uncertainty and to provide more confident
acceleration of global warming and much more extreme assessments of the range of climate sensitivities to human
impacts, are major causes for concern. These include the activities.
response of the water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, the
2
Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (www.gmes.info) is
the European Initiative for the establishment of a European capacity
for Earth Observation. 074. A new structure (i) Bringing together all R&D under a single Director of
Science. The Director of Science will deliver an integrated
science programme supported by Deputy Directors in
for delivering Met Weather, Climate and Foundation Science and by the Heads
of Science Partnerships and Integration and Innovation. The
Office research and proposed new structure is shown below and the various
strategic areas that fall within the three science areas are
development:
given in the accompanying table. The Director of Science
will also be supported by the Head of Science Programme
Administration, who will be responsible for all human
A key part of this strategy is the restructuring of Met Office resources as well as the project and financial management
Research and Development (R&D) to ensure that the Met of the whole programme, working with the Directorate
Office is best placed to tackle new challenges, and to be fit for Programme Coordinators. This structure should enable
purpose to deliver the products and services that customers greater flow of resource between the three elements of
will require 5–10 years from now, especially as climate change the programme, as and when required by the science and
begins to bite. services.
An imperative for any new structure is that it must continue to (ii) Forming a new directorate in Foundation Science.
ensure the world-leading status of the Met Office in Numerical This will bring together those elements of R&D which are
Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate change research and fundamental to Met Office excellence across weather and
prediction. Furthermore, it must recognise that the long- climate prediction. This will require some rationalisation and
term health and viability of the Met Office as a world-leading reorganisation within existing groupings. A new group in
service will depend on maintaining a cutting-edge science Global Unified Model (UM) Development and Evaluation is
base in-house across all key areas. It is only by having that proposed. This will deliver the required integration in UM
core of expertise that we will be able to engage effectively structure, development and evaluation more efficiently and
with our partners. effectively. The intention is that this new grouping will deliver
benefits across the programme, and it is anticipated that
The previous sections have developed the arguments around other new groupings will enter Foundation Science as the
the drivers and imperatives for a more unified approach to programme develops.
delivering our science and predictions. The proposed new
structure endeavours to keep the best of the existing R&D (iii) Establishing a programme of integrating and
structure whilst moving towards this greater unification innovating activities. The elements of this programme will
in the science and modelling where appropriate. It is also evolve with time and will cover initially those areas of research
aimed at providing greater opportunities for integration and that currently do not function effectively, as well as new
innovation, offering a distinct role for the Met Office Fellows and emerging areas of science that are more innovative and
and Expert Scientists. It is anticipated that the proposed strategic. As specific areas mature, they will be taken through
structure may be part of the transition to an increasingly into the appropriate Directorate and new topics will be
unified science programme, as areas of science mature and identified and implemented. The Met Office Research Fellows
new priorities for research emerge. and Expert Scientists are expected to play a major role in the
development and delivery of this programme. Staff will be
For many reasons — scientific, technical and customer-based drawn from the three Research Directorates to contribute to
— maintaining clearly identifiable programmes in weather the chosen activities as and when required. Initial areas where
and climate research is regarded as essential in the short-term. investment will be made include: coupled data assimilation,
Also, the current division of research across the major strategic land-surface modelling, seamless ensemble prediction
areas is still fit for purpose so there are no reasons to make systems, atmospheric composition and air quality.
substantial changes. However, there are clear imperatives for
improving integration across the existing R&D programmes
for the reasons stated above. It is proposed that this is
achieved in three ways:
08Head, Integration Chief Scientist Head, Science
and Innovation Director of Partnerships
Science
Head, Science Programme
Administration
Deputy Director, Deputy Director, Deputy Director,
Climate Science Foundation Science Weather Science
Head, Met Office
Hadley Centre
The Met Office Science Directorate
The management group for the Met Office Science The strategic science areas covered by each of the Directorates
Programme will consist of the Director of Science with the are outlined below. These reflect the core areas of research
three Deputy Directors and two Heads of Programmes. The that the Met Office must continue to invest in, if it is to
Met Office Science Advisory Committee (MOSAC) will be provide the range of services across weather and climate that
expanded to cover all aspects of science and will provide society will increasingly need. There are nevertheless synergies
advice to the Director of Science on the strategic development between the core areas in all three Directorates (e.g. between
of the Met Office Science Programme. As happens now, the Climate Monitoring & Attribution and Satellite Applications,
Chair of MOSAC will report to the Met Office Board. Existing between Ocean Forecasting and Oceans, Cryosphere &
Science Review Groups (SRGs) for reviewing specific areas Dangerous Climate Change). One of the principal aims of
(e.g. Met Office Hadley Centre Science Review Group) will the new structure is to ensure that these are recognised
continue for as long as required by the relevant Customer and exploited to their full capacity. The intention is that this
Groups. The Chairs of those groups will also be members of structure will also enable us to prioritise areas of research
MOSAC to ensure continuity. so that we continue to deliver the best possible Science
Programme when resources are limited.
Strategic science areas within each Directorate
Climate Science Foundation Science Weather Science
Understanding Observational Based Operational Weather
Climate Change Research Forecasting and IT
Climate Monitoring Atmospheric Processes
Satellite Applications
and Attribution and Parametizations
Monthly to Decadal Global UM Development Data Assimilation
Variability and Prediction and Evaluation and Ensembles
Oceans, Cryosphere and Dynamics Research
Ocean Forecasting
Dangerous Climate Change (and Scalable Codes)
Earth System Science
Customer Applications
and Mitigation studies
Climate Impacts and
Adaptation Studies
095. Collaboration: We propose therefore to establish a new group under
a Head of Science Partnerships that will coordinate and
develop the expanding range of collaborative activities.
building stronger These activities will include:
(i) Bringing a more structured approach to our
partnerships partnerships with international UM users by:
(i) agreeing joint research plans and sharing research
and development activities; (ii) developing more effective
Until recently, the science of weather and climate has largely
mechanisms for exchanging code and results;
been the domain of physicists and mathematicians, but
(iii) considering how the computing demands of seamless
increasingly we need to engage with many other disciplines,
ensemble prediction can be shared.
from chemistry and biology to geography, engineering and
social science. The evolution to a truly interdisciplinary science (ii) Strengthening and extending the Joint Weather
will pose new challenges but also new opportunities. and Climate Research Programme with NERC to:
(i) encompass the major elements of joint ownership
At the same time, the modelling, prediction and computing of national capability which are critical for the UK science
challenges have grown, especially as we look towards base (specifically, model codes, research supercomputing
higher resolution models and seamless prediction systems. and major observational platforms); and (ii) facilitate
Collaboration will be essential for delivering the capability greater alignment of directed research and major research
that we will require in the coming decade if we are to deliver initiatives to ensure maximum benefits and efficiency.
a world-class weather and climate service. There is also
(iii) Developing a more effective relationship with the
no doubt that engaging with the users of our predictions
Research Councils and the LWEC programme to ensure
raises many new and exciting science questions, so the
that our national capability in the science, modelling
right structures will need to be put in place to facilitate that
and prediction of the weather, oceans and climate is used
knowledge exchange.
to maximum effect, and that opportunities exist for the
Met Office to lead or participate in LWEC and related
It is with this backdrop that the Met Office has embraced its
programmes where appropriate.
role as an integrator and facilitator of weather and climate
modelling, research and prediction, and now places building (iv) Establishing the Met Office Academic Partnership
stronger partnerships at the core of its science strategy. Scheme as an effective interface between academic
We have already actively pursued the provision of the UM research, training and career development, and the
system to national and international organisations, and we delivery of user-driven products and services. This
are beginning to reap the benefits of those partnerships. We major initiative will set in place formal arrangements
have worked with the Natural Environment Research Council with leading universities for collaboration on key areas of
(NERC) to establish the Joint Weather and Climate Research science of common interest to both organisations.
Programme, a development of real strategic importance. We It will facilitate exchange fellowships and sabbaticals,
increasingly see ourselves playing a key role in the cross- sponsor undergraduate and PhD prizes, internships
Government, cross-Research Council programme on Living and studentships, for example by focusing the existing
with Environmental Change (LWEC), both in research and in CASE award scheme on areas of strategic importance,
delivery. and contributing to the education, training and career
development of young researchers in both institutions.
These activities need to be strengthened and extended as the The intention is for staff to move more freely between
demands of the science grow, and the challenge of acquiring the Met Office and academia to deliver improved levels of
and maintaining the right level of research infrastructure, knowledge exchange.
especially supercomputing, is to be answered.
(v) Establishing the Met Office Industrial Fellowship
Scheme with key customers, sectors and companies, to
create opportunities for staff from customer organisations
(including Government departments) to spend time in
the Met Office and vice versa. This will instil a greater
level of understanding of customers’ needs and of the Met
Office’s capabilities to deliver those needs. The potential
for the Technology Strategy Board to facilitate this scheme
will be explored in collaboration with the Research
Councils.
106. Recruitment and staff 7. Research
development infrastructure
The success of the Met Office as a world-leading scientific Addressing the four major science challenges that underpin
institution relies on the quality and commitment of its staff, the delivery of the best possible weather and climate
and therefore on recruiting and retaining the best scientists. services, will need sustained access to a world-class research
This is already challenging with the rapid growth in job infrastructure, especially modelling and software engineering,
opportunities in environmental science in both the academic supercomputing hardware and observational platforms. Some
and private sectors. Presenting the Met Office as an exciting of these can be delivered in partnership, especially with NERC,
and vibrant research environment with opportunities to but it has to be recognised that these are the bedrock of our
participate in a wide range of cutting-edge science must be science programme and that without them the Met Office
part of our strategy for attracting and retaining the best. will not be in a position, 5–10 years from now, to deliver the
Better communication of our research through the web and products, services and advice that society will need.
other media will be essential.
We will need to be even more targeted in our recruitment 7.1 Modelling
of the best science graduates. Alongside the Academic Modelling underpins everything we do — from research to
Partnership Scheme outlined above, other mechanisms for operations and services. Our weather and climate model
linking with leading universities will be considered. This could codes are increasingly complex and computationally
include structured vacation training and work experience demanding as well as being technically challenging to
programmes, undergraduate ‘industrial’ scholarships and maintain. So, alongside the ongoing investment in computing
prizes. Our use of CASE awards to PhD students should be hardware, there is an urgent need to develop a much
targeted at the best candidates. stronger capability in computational science and software
development.
In order to retain and develop our scientists, we must offer
more opportunities for advancement, for self-development, In the coming years we must tackle the technological
creativity and innovation. We should seek to give our best challenges of exploiting petascale computing. Next
scientists in the order of 20% of their time to pursue their generation machines will be based on multi-core, massively
personal research ideas and for this to be recognised within parallel architectures and all model codes, not just those of
the staff review process. Sabbaticals and exchange visits with the Met Office, will need to be rewritten to scale across many
our academic and industrial partners should be encouraged as thousands of processors. This is an urgent problem which
part of this scheme. We should also ensure that our mentoring will need dedicated resources to tackle it and will affect all
of young scientists is of the highest quality and that they are areas of our research and delivery. At the same time, we will
more fully engaged in programme planning and the wider need to develop innovative ways to analyse and visualise the
research of the Met Office. massive datasets that we produce. Both issues will require
us to nurture and grow a new generation of weather and
The proposed restructuring of Met Office R&D should climate scientists who are expert in both the science and
enable more opportunities for advancement and leadership, computational methods.
especially through the new programme on Integration and
Innovation. It is anticipated that the Expert Scientist and Currently, computational science and software engineering
Research Fellow roles will provide greater opportunities are under-resourced in the Met Office, with the effect
for research leadership internally and externally, and will that scientists spend a disproportionate amount of time
increasingly be focused on delivering the Science Strategy. on technical problems. Mechanisms to bring together the
computational science and Information Technology (IT)
Recommendations: support within the Science Programme must be pursued. At
• Seek ways to present the Met Office as a vibrant the same time, we will need to find other avenues to acquire
and exciting science organisation with wide-ranging the expertise and support that we need, particularly through
opportunities for research. our partner organisations such as NERC, and through leading
• Extend the targeting of our recruitment at the best IT companies. Forming new strategic alliances with centres
graduates through a range of mechanisms, including of excellence in computational science should be part of our
formal partnerships with leading universities. strategy.
• Provide more opportunities for Continuing Professional
Development and for career progression within the
organisation.
11Joint Met Office and NERC
Facility for Airborne Atmospheric
Measurements.
7.2 Supercomputing 7.3 Observational platforms and
It has been recognised for some time that the science of instrumentation
weather and climate is ahead of the availability of computing Advancing our models and predictive capabilities relies
power, and that more skilful and confident predictions on all heavily on better understanding of atmospheric processes and
timescales could be delivered if more computing power was interactions. Retaining a strong capability in observationally
available. A key element of this strategy must therefore be to based research will be crucial from now onwards, to provide
make the case, scientifically and operationally, for substantially the underpinning science for the four major challenges
increased resources. outlined earlier. The UK Facility for Airborne Atmospheric
Measurements (FAAM) provides us with access to a highly
The difference between operational and research computing instrumented research aircraft which allows us to play a world-
requirements needs to be recognised. Operational delivery leading role in atmospheric science and to engage in major
requires the appropriate capacity to deliver a suite of international field experiments. Without those opportunities
weather forecasts on a 24-hour, 7-day a week basis, without the future development of our models, particular at the local
interruption. Increasingly it will also need to accommodate and regional level, would be weakened substantially.
an operational suite of climate predictions. Consequently,
operational supercomputing needs to be robust and under This facility is operated jointly with NERC and this partnership
our control, and it needs a substantial partition for pre- provides many benefits scientifically which we should seek to
operational development and testing. We will increasingly maintain and grow. It also provides an important platform for
need to develop strong economic arguments for the customer-driven applications and can be deployed rapidly in
continuing investment by Government in operational environmental emergencies. Retaining this national capability
supercomputing. must continue to be a high priority for the Met Office. We
should seek to do this in collaboration with NERC through the
Research, on the other hand, requires access to advanced Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme.
computing capability in order to make further progress
in model resolution and complexity, data assimilation and In addition to the research aircraft, ground-based
process-based research. The delivery of this capability can observational sites will continue to be important for
be different from the operational system and could involve atmospheric research and we should seek a stronger
national (such as extending the current joint partition of the collaboration with NERC in developing and maintaining at
Met Office machine with NERC) or international partnering least one highly instrumented site in the UK.
arrangements. Our strategy should be to play a leading role in
the development of national, European and/or international The development of new instrumentation for observing the
initiatives for research supercomputing, and being prepared atmosphere should also be part of the Met Office Science
to consider a range of funding models, including business Strategy from now onwards. As our modelling and predictive
investment. capabilities at regional and local levels grow, it will be
essential that the observational base keeps pace with those
developments, in terms of both research and operations.
Collaboration with the academic community and the
instrument providers on metrology and the development of
prototype instruments needs to be developed further as a core
part of our strategy.
12EUMETSAT Third Generation Weather Satellite (left) and
ESA’s EarthCare mission (right).
7.4 Space-borne Earth Observation Recommendations:
• To develop a stronger base in computational science to
Earth observation from space will play an increasingly tackle the challenges of next generation, scalable models,
important role in all areas of the Science Programme. It and of analysing and visualising weather and climate data.
underpins our weather forecasting and will more and more
define our climate monitoring, attribution and prediction • To make a strong case for enhanced investment in
activities. It will be essential, therefore, that ongoing supercomputing at the national level to support
commitments to invest in weather and climate observing operational delivery across weather and climate
systems are secured internationally. We will continue to use prediction.
our expertise in the science applications of Earth observation • To engage proactively in European and international
to help steer the future priorities of the EUMETSAT and ESA initiatives for access to petascale/exascale supercomputing
capability to enable cutting-edge research.
The focus of our Earth observation activities has traditionally
been on the physical variables of the atmosphere, such as • To develop a joint strategy with NERC to sustain our
temperature, humidity and winds. These data are crucial to world-class capabilities in observational platforms.
our weather forecasting capabilities and currently give us • To facilitate the development of new instrumentation to
an additional 12 hours of skill in the northern hemisphere enhance our operational observational capabilities in the
and as much as 48 hours in the southern hemisphere. As UK.
the information content of satellite observations increases, • To continue to invest in the exploitation of Earth
with the development of high resolution, multi-spectral observation data and to engage actively in setting
measurements, there must be a sustained effort in developing priorities for future investment in space-borne
more sophisticated retrieval algorithms and data assimilation measurements.
techniques, so that these observations can be exploited fully.
Moreover, the Met Office will increasingly need to consider
satellite measurements of other components of the Earth
system such as cloud vertical structure, atmospheric
composition (including dust, aerosols and greenhouse gas
concentrations), oceanography, hydrology and ecosystems.
These data are essential for model development and
evaluation as well as for providing the range of products
and services that society will require. This is challenging
research. Collaboration with leading groups in the UK and
Europe — especially through the GMES programme and ESA’s
International Space Innovation Centre at Harwell — will be
essential.
138. International 9. Communicating our
leadership science and positioning
A key element of this strategy is to maintain the Met Office
amongst the leading weather and climate science institutes in
the Met Office within the
the world, and to position it as the world-leader in the delivery
of a seamless prediction service from weather forecasting for a UK science base
few hours ahead to climate prediction out to decades.
An overarching imperative of the new Science Strategy is to
As weather and climate prediction becomes increasingly promote the Met Office as a major scientific organisation
complex, the number of viable systems around the world at the forefront of weather and climate research, and as an
is likely to decline. Our strategy of working with national international leader in weather and climate prediction and
met. services and offering the Unified Model system should services. Whilst our science credentials are known by our
be strengthened. We should take an increasingly strong peers, there are clear requirements for communicating our
role internationally in capacity building, especially in those science capabilities more widely, in part as our response for
countries that cannot sustain their own research and the call for more openness and transparency in research,
predictive capabilities. This is a key part of our strategy in methods and data.
developing the UK Climate Service so that it has global reach.
The new research pages of the website will be developed
International collaboration and engagement in major further to provide increasing visibility of our science, not
international initiatives is an essential part of maintaining only to fellow researchers but to our stakeholders, customers
a vibrant research programme and securing our world- and the general public. Other methods for communicating
class status. We will continue in our proactive engagement our science will be developed using a range of media and
with WMO research activities, especially through the World drawing on external consultants. As part of the professional
Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate development of the science staff, training in science
Research Programme (WCRP), by ensuring that the Met Office communication will be strengthened. There will be a major
is represented on the relevant committees and by offering effort to improve our visualisation tools as an aid to better
leadership in areas where we have specific expertise. Over communication.
the years, the Met Office has made major contribution to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), providing As part of our wider strategy to secure the future of the
many Lead and Contributing Authors to the Assessment Met Office, the key role that the Met Office plays in the UK
Reports. We will continue to do so, as well as contributing science base will be established more firmly. Securing and
to the shaping of the future structure of the Reports as the promoting the position of the Met Office as a world-leading
demands on climate change prediction grow. science organisation pervades every aspect of this Science
Strategy. We will continue to engage proactively with the
Within Europe, the rapidly emerging interests in climate Chief Scientific Advisors across Government departments, and
services are likely to have a major impact on the structure to seek better and more constructive opportunities to work
of European climate science, modelling and prediction. Our with the Research Councils in ways that reflect our scientific
strategy is to engage fully with the opportunities that will capabilities.
arise within the future EU Framework Programmes and seek
to provide leadership, as we did through the FP6 ENSEMBLES
Programme, whilst preserving our national capability.
Recommendations:
• To grow the international use of the UM system as the
‘model of choice’ in a structured way that benefits the
Met Office.
• To engage proactively in international research
organisations especially the WWRP and WCRP.
• To seek a greater leadership role in European weather and
climate science and prediction activities.
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