Medtech (Overweight) Aesthetic devices market: Spotlight on innovation
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Industry Report | May 24, 2021 Medtech (Overweight) Aesthetic devices market: Spotlight on innovation Choong-hyun Kim, CFA choonghyun.kim@miraeasset.com Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Contents I. Key drivers: Vaccination and innovation 3 II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way 5 III. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market 11 IV. Domestic market trends 17 V. Top pick: Classys 19 2 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
I. Key drivers: Vaccination and innovation
COVID-19 vaccination • Vaccination rates are picking up globally.
status • In parts of the world where vaccination is well underway, new COVID-19 cases are falling.
• The US CDC lifted the mask mandate for vaccinated residents in both indoor and outdoor settings.
• Some countries are showing signs of a post-pandemic economic recovery.
Share of people who have received at least one COVID-19
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases by country (log scale)
vaccine dose
Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Our World in Data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
3 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
I. Key drivers: Vaccination and innovation
Innovation lifting stocks • Returns from bottom: +907% for Establishment Labs, +527% for InMode, +414% for Cutera, +217% for Lutronic,
+103% for Classys
to new heights
• Earnings have recovered on the reopening of aesthetic and dermatology clinics amid ongoing vaccinations.
• 2021F revenue growth guidance: +31-36% for InMode, +39-44% for Establishment Labs, +30% for Lutronic
• Companies with innovative technologies have seen particularly strong share performances and revenue growth.
• Given that some pandemic restrictions still remain in place, we expect top-line growth to accelerate further as the
post-pandemic recovery gains momentum.
• With the aesthetic devices market anticipated to continue robust growth, we think innovative companies merit
special attention.
Global energy-based aesthetic device makers: Market cap changes Global energy-based aesthetic device makers: Revenue growth
(8/7/19=100) (%) InMode Establishment Labs
350 Classys Lutronic 130 Cutera Lutronic
Establishment Labs Cutera Classys
InMode
300 110
90
250 Global COVID-19
70 spread
Global
200
COVID-19 spread 50
150 30
10
100
-10
50
-30
0 -50
1/20 7/20 1/21 2Q18 4Q18 2Q19 4Q19 2Q20 4Q20 2Q21F
Source Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities Research
4 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
Global energy-based • Interest in aesthetic treatments is growing in line with rising income levels and standard of living improvements.
aesthetic devices market • In particular, energy-based aesthetic devices—radiofrequency (RF)-based, ultrasound-based, laser-based, etc.—
have increased in popularity, as they enable minimally invasive procedures.
to grow at CAGR of 10% • Energy-based aesthetic devices have the following advantages:
1) Diverse treatment/care options (tattoo removal, hyperpigmentation treatment, body contouring, skin
tightening, blood vessel removal, etc.)
2) Non-surgical, minimally invasive procedures; as effective as surgeries for certain indications
3) Combination therapy (e.g., Ulthera + Thermage, facial contouring injections + Shurink, etc.)
• Between 2021 and 2025, the global energy-based aesthetic devices market is projected to grow from W4-5tr to
US$7.3bn (10% CAGR).
Energy-based aesthetic devices: Applications Global energy-based aesthetic devices: Market size and forecasts
Source: Cutera, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Lutronic, Mirae Asset Securities Research
5 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
1980s to mid-2000s: • The earliest technologies to emerge and gain acceptance were laser devices and intense pulsed light (IPL)
therapy for peeling, pigmentation treatments, hair removal, photorejuvenation, etc. Market leaders at the time
Laser devices lead were Cynosure, Cutera, Candela, and Lumenis.
market growth • Laser devices remain the most basic tool in dermatology clinics’ treatment arsenal, with over 40mn such
procedures performed annually around the globe.
• As relevant patents have mostly expired, competition has intensified.
• This situation has created opportunities for second-tier competitors, while encouraging incumbents to diversify
their product portfolios to other energy-based aesthetic devices.
Revenue comparison of top four players Low/medium-end device makers catching up with top-tier players
(US$mn) (US$mn) (x)
800 Cynosure 200 Cutera (L) 4
Syneron Candela
Lumenis Lutronic (L)
180
700 Cutera Cutera/Lutronic (R)
160
600 3
140
500
120
400 100 2
80
300
60
200 1
40
100
20
0 0 0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: Edgar, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
6 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
Mid-2000s onward: • Since the early/mid-2000s, aesthetic devices using a variety of energy types, such as RF (e.g., Solta Medical’s
Thermage), ultrasound, and cryolipolysis, have been developed.
Development of various
• Laser energy can penetrate the skin surface and upper dermis, while RF and ultrasound can reach deeper skin
energy-based aesthetic layers (lower dermis and fascia, respectively).
devices Birth of body • Due to the introduction of these new devices, surgical procedures such as facelifts and liposuction are
increasingly being replaced by non-surgical procedures such as body contouring and skin tightening.
contouring/skin • New entrants Solta Medical, Zeltiq, and Ulthera drove innovation. Premium procedures using their products
tightening market are now are widely performed.
Global financial crisis created opportunities for innovative companies
Energy-based aesthetic devices: Energy types and targeted skin layers
To catch up with incumbents
(US$mn) (x)
800 Big 4 incumbents (L) 10
New players (L)
9
700 Incumbents/new players (R)
8
600
7
500
6
400 5
4
300
3
200
2
100
1
0 0
03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: Merz, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Merz, Mirae Asset Securities Research
7 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
Comparison of facelift procedures
High-intensity focused
Surgery Hyaluronic acid filler injection Thread lift RF
ultrasound (HIFU)
RF energy is applied to the HIFU is applied to the skin's
Dermal filler is injected into Dissolvable threads are skin's deeper layers, causing deeper layers, causing
Skin is surgically removed
Procedure the lines, folds, and tissues of inserted underneath the skin collagen contraction and collagen contraction and
and repositioned
the face to lift sagging skin stimulating new collagen stimulating new collagen
production production
Degree of
Invasive Minimally invasive Minimally invasive Non-invasive Non-invasive
invasiveness
Nasolabial folds, tear troughs, Jawline, cheekbone,
Treatment area Face Face, neck Face, neck
forehead lines marionette lines
Interval between
One time One year Six months to one year Three months to one year Three months to one year
procedures
Procedure time Three-four hours 30 minutes 30 minutes 15-20 minutes 15-20 minutes
Takes several weeks for Takes several weeks for
tightening results to show; tightening results to show;
Recovery takes time; does not
Recovery takes time; relatively frequent treatments relatively frequent treatments
Cons Partial lifting last as long as surgery and required; possible skin
limited target customer base required; possible skin
filler injections damage; pain (numbing damage; pain (numbing cream
cream may be needed)
may be needed)
Price
W2-5mn W200-250,000 W500-600,000 W1.9mn W1-1.2mn
(global brand)
Price
W2-5mn W100-140,000 W100-200,000 W250-300,000 W250-300,000
(domestic brand)
Notes: Prices based on 1cc hyaluronic acid filler, four threads, 900 RF shots, and 300 HIFU shots
Source: Industry data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
8 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
II. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
2013-17: M&A fervor • In the mid-2010s, as the market experienced structural growth, M&As among energy-based aesthetic device
makers increased sharply.
sweeps market • Solta Medical developed the world’s first RF-based anti-wrinkle technology in 2002 and grew at a CAGR of 56% in
the subsequent decade. The firm was acquired by Valeant Pharmaceuticals in 2013 for US$250mn.
• In 2009, Ulthera became the first company to apply HIFU technology to skin lifting. The company grew at 83%
CAGR over the following years, before being acquired by Merz in 2014 for US$600mn.
• Zeltiq developed cryolipolysis technology in 2010. The company grew at a CAGR of 49% over the next seven years,
and was sold to Allergan in 2017 for US$2.5bn.
• In 2017, Hologic acquired medical aesthetic device maker Cynosure for US$1.65bn.
Zeltiq: Revenue trend (before acquisition by Allergan) Cynosure: Revenue trend (before acquisition by Hologic)
(US$mn) (US$mn)
450 500
404.5
450 433.5
400
354.2
400
350
CAGR: 49% 350 339.5
CAGR: 23%
300
292.4
255.4 300
250
250 226.0
200 174.5
200
150 153.5
139.7
111.6 150 124.3
110.6
100 76.2
68.1 100 78.4 72.8 81.8
56.3
50 41.6
25.5 50 23.0 27.1
1.6
0 0
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Edgar, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Edgar, Mirae Asset Securities Research
9 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchII. Minimally invasive: Energy-based devices leading the way
Since 2018: • Since the late 2010s, market growth has been driven by companies that generate high gross and OP margins.
Innovative companies • Technological innovation has led to high levels of customer satisfaction, justifying high selling prices and
lowering marketing expenses.
drive market growth • Based on its RF-assisted lipolysis (RFAL) and fractional RF technologies, InMode boasts a high ASP of US$120,000-
130,000 (vs. US$50,000-70,000 for other laser device makers). As such, the company displays a high OP margin of
85% despite its relatively low sales mix of consumables (12%).
• Classys has expanded the mid-end market thanks to the high functional value of its products. Although its ASP is
around half that of Ulthera, Classys has recorded an OP margin of 53%, buoyed by increased consumable sales
(gross margin estimated at 90%) stemming from explosive demand growth.
Classys: Revenue and OP margin trends InMode: Revenue and OP margin trends
(US$bn) (%) (US$mn) (%)
120 Revenue (L) OP margin (R) 60 300 Revenue (L) OP margin (R) 45
279.0
55 40
100 96.6 250
35
50 206.1
81.1
80 76.5 200 30
45
156.4 25
60 40 150
47.5 20
35 100.2
40 34.9 100 15
27.2 30 57.7 10
20 50
25 23.1 5
0 20 0 0
16 17 18 19 20 21F 16 17 18 19 20 21F
Source: Classys, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: InMode, Mirae Asset Securities Research
10 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
Global breast implant • In the aesthetics market, although minimally invasive procedures are coming into greater focus, more invasive
surgeries are still expanding.
market to grow at 7%
• Globally, the most widely performed cosmetic surgery is breast augmentation, with key markets being the US,
CAGR Brazil, and China.
• In 2019, breast augmentation accounted for the largest share (16%; 1.8mn procedures) of total cosmetic
surgeries performed globally (11.4mn), due in large part to: 1) the absence of a non-invasive substitute; and 2)
rising demand stemming from social media and fashion trends.
• We expect the global breast implant market to grow at a CAGR of 7% to US$3.05bn in 2027.
Global cosmetic surgery statistics Global breast implant market outlook
(‘000 procedures) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (US$bn)
Breast augmentation 1,348 1,489 1,649 1,677 1,863 1,796 3.1
CAGR: +7.2%
3.05
Liposuction 1,373 1,395 1,453 1,574 1,733 1,705 3.1
Double eyelid surgery 1,427 1,265 1,348 1,347 1,100 1,260 3.0
Abdominoplasty 683 759 769 802 889 924 3.0
Rhinoplasty 849 730 787 877 727 822 2.9
Breast lift 499 512 583 658 710 741
2.9
Breast reduction 432 423 466 489 534 600
2.8
Facial fat grafting 966 592 597 603 542 599
2.76
2.8
Buttock augmentation 222 289 332 372 347 479
2.7
Facelift 477 412 427 465 399 448
2.7
Other 1,218 1,969 2,434 2,270 2,163 2,438
2.6
Total 9,018 9,423 10,417 10,669 10,607 11,364 19 27
Source: ISAPS, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Fortune Business Insights, Mirae Asset Securities Research
11 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
Global breast augmentation data by country
10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Share
US 275,038 284,351 313,703 297,297 309,985 331,122 345,236 321,362 269,514 15%
Brazil 173,328 148,962 226,090 185,042 166,430 217,085 235,950 275,283 211,287 12%
Mexico 68,978 72,712 57,691 45,570 61,613 62,206 64,478 70,165 74,637 4%
Russia 22,758 20,572 84,235 67,896 4%
Germany 37,653 36,816 55,160 47,905 53,376 52,209 46,165 65,876 66,972 4%
Italy 66,765 62,055 26,520 23,400 54,128 54,045 64,976 56,073 3%
France 42,504 41,484 40,442 41,924 47,510 53,938 3%
Spain 25,016 25,135 38,820 46,493 48,559 3%
Turkey 19,348 14,680 38,484 45,893 3%
Colombia 45,562 38,779 44,403 39,881 46,702 44,080 45,570 42,774 39,720 2%
Korea 34,025 35,325 23,950 50,553
India 50,600 24,859 29,606 32,920
Japan 49,474 52,220 15,169 20,270 7,751
China 54,700 56,840
Others 297,030 290,461 1,011,198 652,941 705,403 618,529 878,125 1,022,070 861,062 48%
Total 1,262,779 1,205,251 1,773,585 1,348,197 1,488,992 1,649,271 1,677,320 1,862,506 1,795,551 100%
Source: ISAPS, Mirae Asset Securities Research
12 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
Market is highly • The breast implant market began in 1962, when the first breast enlargement surgery using silicone implants was
performed. The market is now highly oligopolistic, with Allergan (AbbVie), Mentor (J&J), GC Aesthetics, and Sientra
oligopolistic due to strict
controlling 85% of the market.
regulations and M&As 1) Medical markets that require invasive surgeries tend to be fairly conservative due to safety issues.
2) Innovation suffered a setback when worries about side effects forced the US FDA to suspend the
manufacturing and sales of silicone implants from 1992 to 2006. Larger companies that survived continued to
acquire smaller firms.
• In terms of filling type, cohesive gel (semi-solid silicone) implants are the most widely used, followed by saline
and liquid silicone.
In 1992, the US FDA banned silicone-filled breast implants Global breast implant M/S
15%
85%
Big 4 Other
Source: Allergan, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: MarketWatch, Mirae Asset Securities Research
13 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
A new player is taking • Breast implants can be divided into three types (smooth, micro-textured, and macro-textured) based on their
surface treatment.
the oligopolistic breast
• Macro-textured and tear-drop (anatomical) implants were previously the most popular implants in the market.
implant industry by
• However, reoperation rates were around 24-36% due to side effects such as capsular contracture and rupture.
storm (1) • Establishment Labs entered the market in 2011 by receiving the CE mark certification for micro-textured (round-
type) implants.
• As of Oct. 2020, the rate of capsular contracture/implant rupture in the company’s 1.3mn implants placed in the
past decade stands at less than 1%.
Established players’ clinical data (24-36% reoperation rate) Establishment Labs’ clinical data
Internal clinical data External clinical data
Tracking period Oct. 2010-Mar. 2018 Apr. 2013-Apr. 2016
No. of breast
446,773 implants 5,813 patients
plants/patients
Ruptures Less than 0.1% None
Capsular
Less than 0.1% None
contracture
0.76% (8.43% for control
Reoperation None
group)
Source: Establishment Labs, Mirae Asset Securities Research Note: External clinical data published in Aesthetic Surgery Journal in 2017
Source: Establishment Labs, Mirae Asset Securities Research
14 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
A new player is taking • Backed by its innovative breast implant technology, Establishment Labs recorded an astonishing 75% CAGR from
2015 to 2019 (before turning to negative growth in 2020 due to the pandemic).
the oligopolistic breast
• The company is making rapid progress in many regions, capturing the largest market share in Korea (one of the
implant industry by world’s most competitive markets) and holding a 40% market share in Sweden.
storm (2)
Domestic breast implant M/S Establishment Labs revenue
(%) (%) (US$mn) (%)
30 Motiva (L) Allergan + Mentor (R) 90 35 Revenue (L) YoY (R) 140
120
80 80 30
25 25 25 100
23 23 70
25 80
20 60
60
20
50 40
47
15 44 43 20
40 15
0
10 31 30
10 -20
20
5 -40
5
10
-60
0 0 0 0 -80
4Q15 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21
Source: Hans BioMed, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Establishment Labs, Mirae Asset Securities Research
15 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIII. Invasive: Innovations in breast implant market
Market shift arising from • Since 2018, a number of breast implant associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL) cases were
reported in women with macro-textured breast implants, which are treated to have a rough surface so that they
BIA-ALCL issue
adhere to the breast tissue.
• Allergan (AbbVie) was forced to recall its macro-textured type breast implants and scale back its presence to the
US, Canada, China, and Japan.
• The breast implant market is highly conservative by nature, and the correlation between macro-textured type
implants and BIA-ALCL was enough to change the perceptions of patients and physicians.
• We expect makers of micro-textured/smooth-type implants to gain further market share as a result.
Allergan’s (currently AbbVie) breast implant revenue Three types of breast implants (based on surface treatment)
(US$mn) (%)
140 Breast implants (L) YoY (R) 30
Recall of macro-textured type 20
120 breast implants
10
100 0
-10
80
-20
-30
60
-40
40 -50
-60
20
-70
0 -80
2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 4Q18 2Q19 4Q19
Source: Allergan, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Establishment Labs, Mirae Asset Securities Research
16 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIV. Domestic market trends
Outbound demand: • Initially, domestic energy-based aesthetic device makers generally relied on low prices to compete with global
peers.
Growing exports
• However, after accumulating know-how and clinical data in the domestic market, they started to look for growth
opportunities overseas.
• The COVID-19 outbreak put the brakes on overseas expansion efforts (import restrictions, social distancing
measures, etc.), but exports have steadily recovered since 2Q20.
• Notably, growing exports to the US (over 40% of the global aesthetic device market) should set the stage for a
valuation re-rating for domestic players.
Domestic aesthetic device makers’ export trend
(US$mn) (%)
200 Exports (L) YoY (R) 30
180
20
160
10
140
0
120
100 -10
80
-20
60
-30
40
-40
20
0 -50
1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21
Note: Based on HS code 901890
Source: TRASS, Mirae Asset Securities Research
17 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchIV. Domestic market trends
Inbound demand: • A growing number of people are visiting Korea for medical/aesthetic treatments.
Medical tourism on the • Most of the visitors are from China and Southeast Asian countries.
rise • The most popular procedures are cosmetic surgery and cosmetic dermatology treatments.
• Tourist numbers have plummeted since the COVID-19 outbreak. As travel restrictions ease, however, we think
medical tourism will become one of the key growth drivers for the domestic energy-based aesthetic devices
market.
Share of foreign patients by specialty (2019) No. of foreign patients and YoY growth
('000) (%)
600 No. of patients (L) YoY (R) 60
Internal medicine
Other 23%
23% 50
500
40
400
30
300 20
Plastic surgery 10
OB/GYN 18% 200
8%
0
100
Medical exams -10
11%
Dermatology
17% 0 -20
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Source: KHIDI, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: KHIDI, Mirae Asset Securities Research
18 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ) Top pick
Going global
Investment points
(Initiate) Buy
• High-margin structure supported by consumables business model: Gross margin has expanded from 69.8% in
2017 to 79.7% in 2020.
Target price (12M, W) 19,000
• Worries over Brazil offset by growing exports elsewhere: Earnings are rapidly improving, led by Japan,
Australia, and Russia.
Current price (5/24/21, W) 14,250 • Stable cash flow: Cash assets have increased from W10.5bn at end-2018 to W66.8bn at end-1Q21. Debt ratio
has also declined to 14.9%.
Expected return 33%
Valuation and recommendation
• We initiate our coverage on Classys with a Buy rating and target price of W19,000.
OP (21F, Wbn) 52 • The stock is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19.9x, a discount to global peers (22x).
Consensus OP (21F, Wbn) 54 • Risks: 1) COVID-19 resurgence; 2) persistent weakness in exports to Brazil; 3) increasing domestic competition;
EPS growth (21F, %) 12.5 and 4) lack of progress in business diversification
P/E (21F, x) 21.5
Market P/E (21F, x) 11.8
KOSDAQ 948.37
Market cap (Wbn) 922 150
CLASSYS (Dec.) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F
Shares outstanding (mn) 65 140 KOSDAQ Revenue (Wbn) 47 81 76 97 118 142
Free float (%) 25.9 130 OP (Wbn) 17 42 41 52 63 75
Foreign ownership (%) 7.9 120 OP margin (%) 36.2 51.9 53.9 53.6 53.4 52.8
Beta (12M) 0.49 NP (Wbn) 15 33 38 43 52 62
110
52-week low (W) 11,950 EPS (W) 242 534 590 664 802 958
100
52-week high (W) 17,500 ROE (%) 34.5 48.1 36.1 30.0 27.8 25.8
90
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 16.8 26.5 26.1 21.5 17.8 14.9
80
Absolute 2.9 -5.9 -12.6 P/B (x) 5.0 10.4 8.1 5.7 4.4 3.4
70
Relative 11.4 -13.5 -34.7 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.11 21.1 21.3 21.5 Div. yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent
Source: CLASSYS, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates
19 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Investment point 1: • Classys’s biggest strength is its high-margin consumables-based business model.
High-margin structure • Each of the company’s Shurink cartridges can typically deliver 12,000 shots and must be replaced after 40
uses.
supported by consumables
• We believe COGS ratio is around 30% for devices and 10% for consumables.
business model
• The company has supplied roughly 6,000 devices as of end-2020.
• Growing devices revenue has naturally led to an increase in the revenue mix of consumables (from 26% in
2017 to 49% in 2020).
• In the process, gross margin has expanded from 69.8% in 2017 to 79.7% in 2020.
Revenue breakdown by product (43-47% for consumables) Consumables mix vs. gross margin trend
(%) (%)
Classys Cluederm Consumables Skederm
1% 55 Consumables sales mix (L) 85
2% 3% 3% 2%
Gross margin (R)
50
26%
33% 80
43% 49% 47%
45
11%
75
11% 40
8%
6% 8%
35
70
60% 30
53%
45% 43% 43% 65
25
20 60
17 18 19 20 1Q21 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
20 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Investment point 2: • On top of Classys’s phenomenal top-line growth in the domestic market, exports have continued to increase
in recent years. Brazil, in particular, has stood out as the most important export market.
Worries over Brazil offset
• For this reason, the resurgence of COVID-19 in Brazil has sparked worries about revenue.
by growing exports
• On the bright side, revenue growth is rapidly improving elsewhere, especially in Japan, Australia, and Russia.
elsewhere The revenue mix of regions outside Korea and Brazil has risen from 39% in 2018 to 54% in 1Q21.
• Rather than excessively worrying over the risk in Brazil, we advise focusing on the company’s expansion in
other export markets.
Brazil revenue trend Ex-Brazil export trend
(Wbn) (%) (Wbn) (%)
4.0 Brazil (L) YoY (R) 350 14.0 Other regions (L) YoY (R) 50
300 40
3.5 12.0
250 30
3.0
10.0 20
200
2.5 10
150
8.0
2.0 100 0
6.0
50 -10
1.5
0 4.0 -20
1.0
-50 -30
2.0
0.5 -40
-100
0.0 -150 0.0 -50
1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
21 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Investment point 3: • Classys has continued to generate healthy free cash flow thanks to its strong revenue growth and high-
margin business structure.
Stable cash flow
• As a result, cash assets have increased from W10.5bn at end-2018 to W66.8bn at end-1Q21.
• Debt ratio has also declined from 48.3% at end-2018 to 14.9% at end-1Q21, further strengthening the balance
sheet.
• Stable cash flow and the high percentage of cash holdings should allow the company to pursue M&A deals or
invest in R&D.
Cash and equivalents Free cash flow trend
(Wbn) (Wbn)
80 20 FCF
Cash and equivalents 15
70
10
60
5
50
0
40 -5
-10
30
-15
20
-20
10
-25
0 -30
1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
22 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Earnings forecasts • For 2021, we forecast revenue to grow 26.4% YoY to W96.6bn.
• For Korea and Brazil, both of which are still grappling with COVID-19, we see meager growth of 2.4% and 0.1%
YoY, respectively. However, as economies elsewhere reopen on the back of vaccine distribution, we expect
exports (excluding Brazil) to expand 59.2% YoY, driving overall top-line growth.
• While there are concerns over domestic earnings, new product rollouts (Shurink Universe and Volnewmer) later
this year/early next year should have positive effects.
• We forecast operating profit to grow 26.9% YoY to W51.5bn (OP margin of 53.3%).
Earnings forecasts
(Wbn) 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21F 3Q21F 4Q21F 2020 2021F 2022F
Revenue 21.4 14.6 19.6 20.9 21.3 24.1 25.1 26.1 76.5 96.6 118.2
Classys 9.2 5.8 8.2 9.7 9.2 10.0 10.5 11.0 32.9 40.7 50.4
Cluederm 1.4 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.2 4.4 8.7 10.4
Consumables 10.5 7.6 9.9 9.8 10.1 11.3 11.9 12.5 37.7 45.8 55.9
Cosmetics 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.5
OP 13.4 6.4 11.9 8.9 10.9 12.9 13.5 14.2 40.6 51.5 63.1
Pretax profit 14.7 6.2 11.5 6.9 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.2 39.3 53.3 63.3
NP (owners of parent) 11.4 4.7 8.8 13.2 9.6 10.6 11.1 11.7 38.2 43.0 51.9
OP margin (%) 62.7 43.6 60.6 42.8 51.1 53.5 53.9 54.4 53.1 53.3 53.4
Pretax margin (%) 68.6 42.5 58.6 33.2 58.9 53.6 54.1 54.5 51.4 55.1 53.6
Net margin (%) 21.4 14.6 19.6 20.9 21.3 24.1 25.1 26.1 76.5 96.6 118.2
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates
23 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Valuation and risks • We present a target price of W19,000 on Classys. With 33.3% upside potential, we present a Buy rating on the
stock.
• We derived our target price by applying a P/E of 25x—the stock’s peak multiple over the past year—to our 12-
month forward net profit estimate of W46.7bn.
• We view our target valuation as highly achievable, considering: 1) the stock’s historical peak multiple of 28x; and
2) the fact that aesthetic companies with high exposure to consumables have traded at the upper end of the 20x
range or above 30x P/E during their high-growth periods.
• At present, Classys is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 19.9x, in line with global peers (22x).
• Risks: 1) COVID-19 resurgence; 2) persistent weakness in exports to Brazil; 3) increasing domestic competition;
and 4) lack of progress in business diversification.
Valuation
Value Notes
Target multiple (x) 25 Peak P/E multiple over the past year
NP (Wbn) 46.7 12-month forward EPS
Valuation (Wbn) 1,167
Share count (shares) 64,716,864 As of end-Mar. 2021
Target price (W) 19,000
Current price (W) 14,250
Upside potential (%) 33.3%
Source: TRASS, Mirae Asset Securities Research
24 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Global peer valuation (Wbn)
Market OP margin (%) P/E (x) P/S (x) ROE (%) Revenue (Wbn)
cap 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F
InMode 2,960 35.3 38.7 38.1 30.4 25.1 23.1 11.2 9.4 7.9 34.9 33.6 26.9 243 314 376
Hugel 2,537 37.0 41.0 42.4 46.6 32.9 26.2 10.9 9.5 7.9 5.8 9.7 11.1 211 268 322
Establishment
1,761 -33.0 -16.2 -9.6 - - - 17.3 13.1 10.4 -33.5 -39.5 -47.0 100 134 169
Labs
Medytox 1,095 -26.3 1.6 18.4 - - - 6.8 7.0 5.8 -11.8 4.3 13.0 141 157 190
Classys 903 53.1 56.8 58.0 24.9 19.5 15.4 11.8 9.0 7.1 36.0 32.3 30.7 76 101 127
L&C Bio 643 22.2 29.7 31.0 59.8 - - 19.6 15.3 11.7 18.6 13.9 16.0 33 42 55
Cutera 589 -15.5 0.3 5.1 - - - 3.1 2.5 2.3 -31.5 1.4 5.5 174 229 254
Lutronic 275 5.4 14.7 27.9 - 15.0 6.5 2.2 1.9 1.6 -14.7 15.6 28.1 116 145 173
Venus Concept 110 -87.0 -20.8 -10.7 - - - 0.9 1.0 0.8 -144.0 - - 92 114 139
Avg. -1.0 16.2 22.3 40.4 23.1 17.8 9.3 7.6 6.2 -15.6 8.9 10.5 132 167 200
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Securities Research
Foreign and institutional net buying 12-month forward P/E band chart
(Wbn) (W) (W)
140 Share price (R) 20,000 30x 25x
20000
120 Domestic institutions (L) 18,000 18000
100 16,000 16000 20x
Foreign investors (L)
80 14,000 14000
12,000 12000 15x
60
10,000 10000
40
8,000 8000 10x
20 6,000 6000
0 4,000 4000
-20 2,000 2000
-40 0 0
1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 1/19 7/19 1/20 7/20 1/21 18 19 20 21
Source: Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Mirae Asset Securities Research
25 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Company overview • Established in 2007, Classys went public on the KOSDAQ in 2017 through a merger with KTB SPAC 2.
• The company’s core product is Shurink, an HIFU facelift device.
• The company has a consumables-based business model that generates high margins and has supplied around
6,000 devices globally as of end-2020. The revenue mix of consumables overtook that of devices in 2020.
• More than 60% of revenue comes from exports, with the biggest export market being Brazil.
Classys’s flagship brand Shurink
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Securities Research
26 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ)
Key charts
Revenue breakdown by region Revenue breakdown by product
Korea Brazil Other Classys Cluederm Consumables Skederm
2% 3% 3% 2% 1%
26%
39% 43% 33%
49% 54% 43% 49% 47%
63% 11%
11%
12%
12% 8% 8%
9% 6%
10%
4.8%
60% 53%
42% 49% 45% 45% 43% 43%
32.6% 36%
17 18 19 20 1Q21 17 18 19 20 1Q21
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
Ownership breakdown
Other
18%
Foreign investors
8%
Jung Sung-jae
51%
Affiliates
23%
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Securities Research
27 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchClassys (214150 KQ) Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F (Wbn) 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue 76 97 118 142 Current assets 83 124 175 237 P/E (x) 26.1 21.5 17.8 14.9 Cost of revenue 16 19 24 28 Cash & equivalents 64 96 142 198 P/CF (x) 22.5 17.1 14.1 11.9 GP 60 78 94 114 AR & other receivables 3 4 5 6 P/B (x) 8.1 5.7 4.4 3.4 SG&A expenses 20 26 31 39 Inventory 10 12 15 18 EV/EBITDA (x) 21.7 15.2 11.7 9.2 OP (adj.) 41 52 63 75 Other current assets 6 12 13 15 EPS (W) 590 664 802 958 OP 41 52 63 75 Non-current assets 55 56 57 57 CFPS (W) 684 834 1,011 1,199 Non-operating profit -2 1 0 1 Investments in associates 0 0 0 0 BPS (W) 1,913 2,516 3,259 4,157 Net financial income 0 0 0 0 PP&E 50 51 51 51 DPS (W) 60 60 60 60 Net income from associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible assets 1 1 1 1 Dividend payout ratio (%) 10.2 9.0 7.5 6.3 Pretax profit 39 53 63 76 Total assets 138 180 232 294 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Income tax 1 10 11 14 Current liabilities 13 17 20 24 Revenue growth (%) -6.2 27.6 21.6 20.3 Profit from continuing opera 38 43 52 62 AP & other payables 1 1 1 2 EBITDA growth (%) 0.0 25.6 20.4 20.0 Profit from discontinued ope 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabil 0 0 0 0 OP growth (%) -2.4 26.8 21.2 19.0 NP 38 43 52 62 Other current liabilities 12 16 19 22 EPS growth (%) 10.5 12.5 20.8 19.5 Attributable to owners 38 43 52 62 Non-current liabilities 0 1 1 1 AR turnover (x) 27.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 Attributable to minority inter 0 0 0 0 Long-term financial liabili 0 0 0 0 Inventory turnover (x) 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 Total comprehensive income 38 43 52 62 Other non-current liabiliti 0 1 1 1 AP turnover (x) 54.8 52.5 52.5 52.5 Attributable to owners 38 43 52 62 Total liabilities 14 17 21 25 ROA (%) 30.4 27.0 25.2 23.6 Attributable to minority inter 0 0 0 0 Equity attributable to own 124 163 211 269 ROE (%) 36.1 30.0 27.8 25.8 EBITDA 43 54 65 78 Capital stock 6 6 6 6 ROIC (%) 76.9 77.5 95.1 113.1 FCF 37 37 52 62 Capital surplus 24 24 24 24 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.3 EBITDA margin (%) 56.6 55.7 55.1 54.9 Retained earnings 93 132 180 238 Current ratio (%) 617.2 736.1 865.3 968.7 OP margin (%) 53.9 53.6 53.4 52.8 Minority interests 0 0 0 0 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -55.5 -65.0 -72.8 -78.4 Net margin (%) 50.0 44.3 44.1 43.7 Shareholders' equity 124 163 211 269 Interest coverage ratio (x) 240.4 4,496.9 4,813.7 5,185.8 Source: CLASSYS, Mirae Asset Securities Research estimates 28 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities Research
Important disclosures and disclaimers
Two-year rating and TP history
Company Date Rating TP (W)
(W) CLASSYS
CLASSYS (214150) 05/24/21 Buy 19,000 20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
May 19 May 20 May 21
Stock ratings Sector ratings
Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months
Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months
Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months
Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse
Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆)
* Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months.
* Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise.
* The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings.
* TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
Ratings distribution and investment banking services
Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
Ratings distribution 79.00% 13.00% 7.00% 1.00%
Investment banking services 63.16% 31.58% 5.26% 0.00%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2021)
29 | Medtech Mirae Asset Securities ResearchDisclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject company's shares outstanding. Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Securities”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Securities, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. 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