MARKET OUTLOOK BURWOOD EAST - Frasers Property
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MARKET
OUTLOOK
BURWOOD EAST
Burwood East offers convenient access to local employment and
education centres as well as attractive lifestyle amenity, with
direct links to Melbourne's CBD via tram and major arterial roads.
01
Australian Economy
02
Why Melbourne
03
Walkability
& Accessibility
04
Infrastructure
05
Employment
& Education
06
Population
& Demographics
07
Residential Market
08
Rental Market
Prepared exclusively for
Frasers Property Group
January 2021
AUSTRALIAN
ECONOMY
Australia's economy has proven resilient amidst
turbulent times, with solid foundations for rebound
and growth.
Australia maintained strong economic growth over the international borders will likely reopen in 2021. This would
decade to 2019, with real GDP growing at an average set Australia on a steady recovery of population growth,
of 2.5% per annum. Australia is also a resilient likely hitting strong pre-COVID-19 population growth rates
economy, achieving positive growth of 1.9% in 2009 by 2026.
during the GFC. Recently, Australia's economy has
avoided a more severe contraction from the pandemic, Australia offers strong fundamentals for a resilient
when compared with other developed countries. economy - good governance, coupled with strong and
transparent institutions. This was clearly demonstrated
Australia's strong population growth is a key factor in the in Australia's effective pandemic response and resilience
country's growing economy. High levels of inward migration of the Australian dollar, which has strengthened since
ensure the country continues to benefit from a diverse March 2020. Australia has also implemented a range of
culture and strong international ties. In comparison with demand stimulating measures, such as stamp duty waiver,
other developed nations, Australia has experienced high monetary policy supporting the property sector, vaccine
average annual population growth, at 1.6% for the decade arrangements, and individual tax relief. These measures
to 2019. Recent international border closures have slowed have well-positioned Australia for a strong rebound in the
inward migration and population growth in the immediate years ahead.
term. However, Federal Budget has indicated that
REAL GDP GROWTH
Comparison of selected developed nations
Canada Japan New Zealand United Kingdom United States Australia
6.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.8% 2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7%
2.1% 2.6% 1.8%
4.0% 1.9%
2.0% -4.2%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: International Monetary Fund, Urbis
EXCHANGE RATE
Comparison of selected developed nations against AUD
SGD USD EUR CNY HKD
1.20 10.00
9.00
1.10
AUD/SGD, USD & EUR
AUD/CNY & HKD
8.00
1.00 7.00
0.90 6.00
5.00
0.80 4.00
0.70 3.00
2.00
0.60
1.00
0.50 0.00
Jun-2015 Jun-2016 Jun-2017 Jun-2018 Jun-2019 Jun-2020
Period (End of Month)
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Urbis
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH
2009-2019
1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% -0.1%
UNITED UNITED
AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND CANADA STATES JAPAN
KINGDOM
Source: The World Bank, Urbis.
Note that 2019 data is most recent.
2 Market Outlook Burwood East
WHY
MELBOURNE
Melbourne’s global brand continues to grow after
ranking second place for the World's Most Liveable
City, in 2018 and 2019.
In 2018 and 2019, Melbourne was ranked the second Melbourne's liveability not only attracts tourists, but also
most liveable city in the world. This follows seven makes it the fastest growing city in Australia in absolute
previous consecutive years as number one, as voted terms, growing by over 550,000 people between 2011
by the Economist Intelligence Unit. This strong and 2016. Greater Melbourne's population is anticipated
performance can be attributed to strong healthcare, to surpass Greater Sydney's within the next 15-20 years,
education and infrastructure, along with the city’s making it Australia's most populous city. Leading up to
cultural diversity, environment and political stability. this, Melbourne anticipates to welcome over 95,000
residents annually. Melbourne's internationally praised
Melbourne is a global events destination, hosting many
response to a second wave in 2020 has further enhanced
annual events which attract visitors from around the world.
its appeal to new residents as a liveable and safe city
in 2021. Melbourne's residential market has remained
EVENTS HOSTED IN MELBOURNE resilient, and despite an overall fall in sales and median
prices during 2020, apartment sales and house prices
Australian Open Tennis Grand Slam were still higher than the same period in the previous
year (2019). The aid of government stimulus like the
Melbourne F1 Grand Prix HomeBuilder and First Home Owner Grants and Stamp
Duty waivers, further supports Melbourne's residential
AFL Grand Final market recovery.
Melbourne Cup Racing Carnival MELBOURNE TOURISM
Year to March 2020
Virgin Australia Melbourne Fashion Festival
Melbourne Food and Wine Festival
Royal Melbourne Show
2.7M $7.6B
INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL
VISITORS VISITOR SPEND
Source: Tourism Research Australia
GREATER CITY - AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
Forecast to 2040 ('000)
Darwin
2.8
Canberra
6.4
Brisbane
42.6
Sydney
Perth 82.4
34.3 Melbourne
95.2
Adelaide
10.0
Hobart
Source: ABS, Urbis
Note: Projections are pre-COVID-19. 2.0
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Group 3
WALKABILITY
& ACCESSIBILITY
Port Phillip Bay
Presbyterian Ladies College
Deakin University
Burwood Campus
No. 75 Tram Line
AY
G HW
D HI
OO
W
B UR
Burwood Heights Burwood Brickworks
Shopping Centre Shopping Centre
Burwood One Tally Ho Dandenong
Shopping Centre Burwood East Reserve Business Park Ranges
Burwood East is located 17 kilometres east of RETAIL AMENITY
Melbourne’s CBD with access to major roads Burwood Brickworks features over 30 specialty stores,
including Burwood Highway and Blackburn including Woolworths, Dan Murphy's, Reading Cinemas,
Road which both link to the Monash Freeway. Acre Farm & Eatery, Insight Early Learning Centre, a
Additionally, Burwood East is well serviced by medical centre, Choice Pharmacy, Cannings Butcher and
Hu Hui Supermarket. Burwood One features over 70 stores,
Melbourne’s tram network with route 75 running including Kmart, Coles, Aldi, and a brand new casual dining
every 10 minutes during peak times to Docklands. court. Burwood Heights Shopping Centre offers more retail
Several bus routes also service the area and amenity, with a Woolworths and BWS Liquor store.
connect to railway stations providing a 30-minute
journey to Melbourne’s CBD.
4 Market Outlook Burwood East
Burwood East is easily accessible by public transport and is
well positioned for commuting into the city or escaping to the
beach or Dandenong Ranges for leisure.
Melbourne CBD
Box Hill Hospital
Wattle Park Golf Course
MIDDLEBOROUGH RD
Burwood East
Local Government
City of Whitehorse
Total Area
Ha
426 Ha
Open Space
32 Ha
Schools
6
Distance from
Melbourne CBD
17km
EMPLOYMENT & EDUCATION PARKS & RECREATION
Burwood East is surrounded by a range of employment Burwood East features ample open space and sporting
opportunities, including the Tally Ho Business Park and Box facilities including the East Burwood Reserve, which offers
Hill Hospital. The Tally Ho Business Park located at the tennis courts, two ovals, a cycling track, a basketball
intersection of Burwood Highway and Springvale Road is a key stadium and an athletics track. The Dandenong Ranges
hub for high technology business and innovation in the eastern are also an easy drive east for an afternoon bushwalk,
suburbs with corporations such as Motorola, Hewlett Packard, while Bay and Mornington Peninsula beaches are easily
Pronto Software and Fujitsu. accessible. This diverse mix of employment, education,
retail and lifestyle amenity continues to drive residential
Furthermore, Burwood East is close to Deakin University as demand within Burwood East.
well as numerous private and public schools, including Glen
Waverley Secondary College, Forest Hill College, Mount
Scopus Memorial College, Presbyterian Ladies' College, St
Benedict’s Primary School and Burwood East Primary School.
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Group 5
There are several infrastructure
projects underway or in the pipeline
INFRASTRUCTURE which will enhance Burwood East’s
liveability.
The City of Whitehorse will benefit from more than $50 billion dollars worth of private and public infrastructure
investment in the future pipeline. This includes commercial and mixed use projects, which will add to the existing
amenity in the area, and also generate additional local jobs.
BURWOOD DEAKIN UNIVERSITY
BRICKWORKS BURWOOD CAMPUS
SHOPPING CENTRE INFRASTRUCTURE
$118 MILLION AND UTILISATION
Completed Dec 2019. PLAN
$316.5 MILLION
The 13,000 sq.m Planned
shopping centre
officially opened for A total of 46 projects
trade in December are proposed for the
2019, offering a mix of flagships and localised speciality Burwood Campus between 2015 and 2024 as outlined in
stores across food and dining, entertainment, retail the Campus Infrastructure and Utilisation Plan. Significant
services, health and wellbeing. The centre aims to be the Projects include the refurbishment of several buildings to
most sustainable shopping centre in the world, with a focus create undergraduate teaching laboratories, a new School
on recycling rain and water waste, as well as sustainable of Law building and increased student accommodation
power generation. One of its key features is Australia's first creating quality affordable housing for an additional 505
urban agriculture project in a shopping centre, with a 2,000 students.
sq.m rooftop farm run by acre farm & eatery. In October 2016, Deakin commenced work on the Burwood
The shopping centre forms part of the development of the Link, a pedestrian crossing between the Burwood Highway
former Burwood Brickworks site, which will be a mixed and Elgar Road sides of Deakin’s Melbourne Burwood
use development across 18 hectares, including retail, Campus. The Burwood Link finished construction in
residential, commercial, leisure, health and wellbeing uses. mid-2017.
EPWORTH SURBURBAN
EASTERN PLUS RAIL LOOP
STAGE 1 $50 BILLION
$50 MILLION Construction to
Under construction. begin 2022+
Stage 1 of the The Suburban Rail
Epworth hospital Loop project aims
upgrade will include to improve Victoria’s
a new emergency public transport
department, 2 operating theatres, 60 overnight acute system, connecting
patient beds, 15 rehab beds, and 20 consulting suites. every major train line from the Frankston Line to the
Car parking for an additional 57 vehicles will span over Werribee line, and improving access to housing, jobs,
3 levels and will interjoin with the existing car park. The schools, universities and hospitals in Melbourne’s middle
new hospital facility will measure 15 stories in height and suburbs. Stage 1 of the project includes the construction
is estimated to complete in late 2020. of the south-east section of the loop, with a brand new
train station located in Burwood. The delivery of this rail
loop will connect residents to key employment precincts
in Clayton, Monash, Glen Waverley, Box Hill, Sunshine,
Bundoora and Werribee, as well as Melbourne Airport.
6 Market Outlook Burwood EastEMPLOYMENT 42,800 additional jobs are
& EDUCATION forecast for Melbourne's inner
south-eastern suburbs by 2031.
EMPLOYMENT EDUCATION
Proximity and access to Melbourne's CBD is likely to be an Deakin University's Melbourne Campus lies in the heart of
attractor for Burwood residents with 10% of those who are Burwood, ranked in the top 15 universities across Australia.
employed working there. A further 13% are employed within The university boasts over 61,000 students, almost 13,000
Burwood and Burwood East, primarily centred around the international students, and its English language Institute
Tally Ho Business Park. (DUELI) is the second largest university English language
centre in Australia. In 2019 Deakin ranked among the
Around 80% of employed Burwood and Burwood East
top 2% of universities worldwide according to all major
residents work in white collar jobs. This comprises
international university rankings including Times Higher
of managers, professionals, sales and administration
Education. Additionally, five private, three public and two
professions. The concentration of people in these jobs is
special schools are located in the Burwood East Study Area
6 percentage points higher than the Greater Melbourne
providing residents with access to all levels of education.
average.
Burwood East is well positioned to capitalise on future 2031 JOB FORECAST
employment growth as part of the Monash National Inner South East Region
Employment and Innovation Cluster, which according to
the Victorian Planning Authority already supports more than
75,000 jobs and $9.4 billion annually to the State economy. 2020 230,200 +42,800 jobs
Key industries in Melbourne’s inner south-eastern suburbs
anticipated to see growth by 2031, include retail trade,
healthcare and social assistance, professional, scientific and
technical services, education and training. Between 2020
2031 273,000
and 2031, an additional 42,800 new jobs are forecast for
this region, with the majority in community and business
services. Source: Plan Melbourne
10
08 04
07 01 06
09 Burwood
Brickworks
BURWOOD BURWOOD
EAST
03 02
05
SCHOOLS IN BURWOOD
AND BURWOOD EAST
01 Blackburn English Language 04 Burwood Heights Primary School 08 Presbyterian Ladies' College
School 05 Emmaus College 09 St Benedict’s School Primary
02 Burwood East Primary School 06 Forest Hill College School
03 Burwood East Special 07 Mount Scopus Memorial College 10 Wattle Park Primary School
Development School
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Group 7Burwood East and Burwood are projected to
POPULATION welcome nearly 10,000 additional residents
by 2036 - a 36% boost in population.
There are approximately 26,200 residents living in
Burwood East and Burwood. The area saw a 30% increase
to its population since 2001 reflecting an annual increase
of about 330 residents.
The latest government projections anticipate Burwood
East and Burwood growing more than it has historically.
By 2036, the area will welcome nearly 10,000 additional
residents equating to a population over 35,700.
The boost in population anticipated in Burwood East and
Burwood will mean a greater number of dwellings will be
required to support new residents.
Approximately 3,310 additional dwellings are needed to
support new residents between 2021 and 2036. Strong
future demand to live in Burwood East will only be further
propelled as the supply of developable land becomes
scarcer over time.
POPULATION FORECAST
Burwood East Study Area
35,760
32,670
29,700
26,760
23,670
21,940
20,470
19,990
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Source: ABS, SAFI, Urbis
Note: Projections are pre-COVID-19.
DWELLING FORECAST
Burwood East Study Area
13,580
12,440
11,390
10,270
9,060
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Source: ABS, SAFI, Urbis
Note: Projections are pre-COVID-19.
8 Market Outlook Burwood EastBurwood East is characterised by a young,
international demographic taking advantage
DEMOGRAPHICS of the high-quality education offered by
Deakin University.
The demographic profile of Burwood East and Burwood INCOME GROWTH - BURWOOD EAST / BURWOOD
reflects the impact of Deakin University with 15% of 2006 - 2016
residents aged between 20-24 years as at 2016. This is
over double that for Greater Melbourne at 7% and largely 2006 2016
attributable to the number of tertiary students living
in the area. Additionally, there are a higher proportion Average +27%
of residents over 65 years old in Burwood, accounting Household
for 18% of residents, compared with 14% in Greater Income Growth
Melbourne. Aside from these specific differences, there is
a reasonable depth across all age cohorts, which opens
up opportunities to provide a range of housing options. Average
Per Capita
Burwood East and Burwood is a popular residential Income Growth
area for foreign born residents, with 52% of residents 2006 2016
born overseas compared to 36% across Greater
Melbourne. This can in part be explained by the large +28%
number of international students residing in the suburb.
Source: ABS, Urbis
Recent border closures may have limited international
student numbers in the short-term, however Australia
remains an attractive destination for education, offering
proximity to Asia and a safe, livable environment. When WHO LIVES IN BURWOOD EAST / BURWOOD
borders reopen (likely next year), we expect recovery
Burwood East Greater
of international student arrivals. The housing structure
/Burwood Melbourne
across the area differs from the typical household
composition across Greater Melbourne with a higher 52% Overseas born
36%
proportion of group households, at 10% in Burwood East
and Burwood, compared with 5% in Greater Melbourne.
Average household and per capita incomes in the area
increased by 27% and 28% respectively in the 10 years 79% White collar 73%
to 2016. This may be attributed to the increase in white professionals
collar workers in the area who generally earn higher
incomes.
33% Bachelor Degree 27%
or higher
10% Group 5%
households
AGE DISTRIBUTION Source: ABS, Urbis
2016
Burwood East Study Area Greater Melbourne
20%
Population of Residents
15%
10%
5%
0%
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-55 55-59 60-64 65+
Age Bracket
Source: ABS, Urbis
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Group 9RESIDENTIAL Burwood East has a resilient apartment
MARKET market with its median price increasing 12%
in the year to July 2020.
SALE PRICE AFFORDABILITY GAP - BURWOOD EAST
Year to July 2020
Burwood East registered a median unit price of
$702,500 for the year to July 2020. Compared to the
surrounding suburbs of Vermont South, Glen Waverley,
Mount Waverley and Ashburton, this median price is
relatively more affordable. The difference is a median
price saving of between $168,000 and $527,500. $1,067,500
This provides a more achievable entry point into the HOUSE
market. The level of affordability Burwood East offers is
expected to be a driver for aspiring residents looking to
$365,000
GAP
move into the Eastern suburbs.
PRICE GROWTH UNITS
$702,500
Burwood East recorded median unit price growth of
3.6% per annum from 2010 to 2020. This demonstrates
healthy long-term growth in the area. Source: Pricefinder, Urbis
The resilient apartment market Burwood East retains
MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH
also extends in more recent periods. Median unit Burwood East - Units
price grew 12% in the last 12-months to July 2020.
Meanwhile, sales volumes increased by 87% from
2019 to 2020. This is attributable in part to Burwood
East's growing appeal as a suburb that can offer
space and livability, coupled with access to inner-city 3.6% 12.0%
amenities and jobs. It is also likely that Burwood East P.A.
has benefited from Federal Budget's recent stimulus
measures such as stamp duty waiver and expansion of
2010-20 2019-20
the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme. These growth
trends indicate continued demand for units in this area.
Source: Pricefinder, Urbis
AFFORDABILITY GAP
There is a relatively large affordability gap between
houses and units in Burwood East. In the year to July
2020, houses were 52% or $365,000 more expensive
than units. This may shift demand in favour of units as
the price point is more accessible to a broader range of
purchasers.
MEDIAN UNIT PRICE
Year to July 2020
Burwood
Median Unit Price East Saving
Burwood East $702,500
Vermont South $1,050,000 $347,500
Glen Waverley $870,500 $168,000
Mount Waverley $1,000,000 $297,500
Ashburton $1,230,000 $527,500
Source: Pricefinder, Urbis
10 Market Outlook Burwood EastRENTAL The median unit rent in Burwood East steadily
grew over the decade and has continued to
MARKET increase in the 12-months to September 2020
- demonstrating a resilient rental market.
RENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Renting is a popular form of housing tenure with a third
of households renting in Burwood East and Burwood. The
proportion of renters is higher than that across Greater
Melbourne at 31%. Burwood East and Burwood experienced THE PROPORTION OF RESIDENTS THAT
growth in the proportion of renters from 23% in 2006 to RENT IN BURWOOD EAST & BURWOOD
33% in 2016 - reflecting the strong rental market growth.
HAS INCREASED BY 10 PERCENTAGE
The rental market is supported by a high proportion of
of tertiary students in the area, likely attending Deakin
POINTS IN THE DECADE TO 2016.
university.
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS
The Burwood East catchment recorded median Burwood East Catchment^
weekly rents of $260, $430 and $540 for one, two $550 1 Bed 2 Bed 3 Bed
and three-bedroom units respectively over the year to
September 2020. $500
$450
Median weekly rent for units across the Burwood East
catchment have shown steady growth over the long-term. $400
The median rent across all units grew by 2.0% per annum
$350
over the past decade. The 12 months to September 2020
saw rents hold steady, even amidst border closures and $300
lockdowns during the recent pandemic. This is testament $250
to Burwood East's resilient rental market.
$200
Mar-20
Mar-14
Sep-20
Mar-16
Mar-19
Mar-13
Mar-18
Mar-15
Sep-10
Mar-12
Sep-14
Mar-17
Sep-16
Sep-19
Mar-11
Sep-13
Sep-18
Sep-15
Sep-12
Sep-17
Sep-11
RENTAL YIELD
Units in Burwood achieved an indicative gross rental
Rolling Annual - Quarters
yield at 3.3% in the 12-months to September 2020.
This outperformed most surrounding areas including Source: Department of Health & Human Services, Urbis
^Burwood East Catchment comprises the following suburbs: Burwood
Ashburton (2.5%), Glen Waverley (3.0%) and Vermont East, Burwood, Forest Hill, Vermont South, Ashburton and Ashwood.
South (2.2%).
INDICATIVE GROSS RENTAL YIELD - UNITS HOUSING TENURE - RENTER
September 2020 Change 2006 - 2016
2.5% 3.3% BURWOOD EAST
AND BURWOOD
GREATER
MELBOURNE
Ashburton Burwood East
2.5%
Mount Waverley 23% 2006 26%
3.0% 27% 2011 28%
Glen Waverley
3.3%
Burwood 2.2% 33% 2016 31%
Vermont South
Source: Pricefinder, Urbis Source: ABS, Urbis
Prepared exclusively for Frasers Property Group 11This publication was prepared by Urbis Pty Ltd on the instruction, and for the sole use and benefit of Frasers Property Group for the purpose set out in the publication and not for
any other purpose or use. The publication is not suitable for use by, may not be relied on by and may not be provided to any other party without the specific approval of Urbis Pty
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by Urbis in good faith, in the reasonable belief they are correct and not misleading as at the date of the publication. These are made and expressed as at the date of this publication
on the basis of and in reliance on the data and information sourced by Urbis from reputable third party suppliers and the instructing party and after taking account of reasonably
foreseeable circumstances and events. The Content may be affected by data and information arising, or unforeseen risks, events or circumstances occurring, after the date of
this publication, the likelihood and effect of which is not capable of prior assessment. The Content may be affected by known risks, events or circumstances the impact of which is
not capable of assessment as at the date of the publication. Achievement of the Content will also depend, among other things, on the action of others. It should be noted that past
performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The effects (both directly and indirectly) of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic conditions and the
resulting uncertainty in markets is impacting the Australian real estate market with market conditions changing daily. The extent of its impact and how long it will last is unknown.
This publication assumes (unless otherwise stated) the COVID-19 pandemic has not materially impacted the Content. However, as at the date of this publication we consider there
is a significant level of market uncertainty (including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic) and the Content may change (or may have changed) significantly and unexpectedly over
a relatively short period of time (including as a result of factors of which Urbis could not have reasonably been aware as at the publication date). Clearly the COVID-19 pandemic
and its impact is an important risk factor you must carefully consider when making any decisions regarding assets or business activities to which this publication relates. Any
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