London's Ultra Low Emission Zone: Developing evidence based policies to tackle vehicle emissions in London - Polis Network
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London's Ultra Low Emission Zone: Developing evidence based policies to tackle vehicle emissions in London Claire Cheriyan – Principal Analyst
London’s Air Quality
NO2 – a Europe-wide problem
3
NO2 – a London problem
2010
2020
2025
Legal
limit
4
Emissions based charging schemes
The Central London Ultra Low Emission Zone
September
2020
Euro VI (
Timeline of – 2008 Low Emission Zone launched
events
– February 2013 - The Mayor announced his intention to
introduce an ultra low emission zone in central London
– March 2015 - The Mayor confirms the introduction of
Ultra Low Emission Zone in central London from
September 2020
– October 2015 - The Mayor confirms supporting taxi and
PHV measures
– December 2015 – publication of Defra Air Quality
Action plan
– May 2016 Sadiq Khan elected Mayor
– June 2016 Announcement of package of air quality
measures
– 2017 consult on expanding ULEZ options
7
Bringing the Central London Ultra Low Emission
Zone in sooner
September September
2019 2020
24/7
8
Expanding the ULEZ standards to Inner London
for all vehicles
TBC
From
2020
24/7
9
Expanding the ULEZ standards to the whole of
London for heavy vehicles
From
2020
24/7
10Supporting measures with procurement
implications
TfL Licensed Taxis
• All newly licensed taxis from 2018 will have to be petrol Zero Emission Capable vehicles
• Grants for the purchase of new ZEC taxis
• Voluntary decommissioning scheme for the oldest taxis
TfL Licensed Private Hire Vehicles
• Similar phasing in of plug-in vehicles into the Private Hire fleet
TfL Regulated Bus Fleet
• Buses will meet ULEZ standards by 2019 plus by 2020 all single decker buses in central ULEZ
will be zero emission at tailpipe and double decker buses will be hybrid
• Implementing Low Emission Bus Zones – tackling the worst pollution hotspots by delivering
cleaner buses on the dirtiest routes first
Additional measures
• Proposed £10 Emissions Surcharge on the most polluting vehicles entering central London from 2017
during charging hours
• Developing a detailed proposal for a national diesel scrappage scheme for Government to implement
• Air quality alerts at tube stations and bus stops
11The evidence base: understanding emissions sources 12
Understanding sources of pollution - the London Atmospheric
Emissions Inventory (LAEI)
Rail
Shipping
Road
The inventory consists of river and rail
links and thousands of road links.
Can extract vehicle flows / kilometres
and emissions breakdowns at link level*
13NOx road transport emissions by area – 2020
shows the importance of tackling TfL regulated vehicles
Taxi
3% 3%
11% 9%
TfL Bus
5% 6%
13% Diesel
9% 15%
18% Car
11%
Petrol
17% Car
14% Van and
16% 23% Minibus
3%
Motorcy
22% cle
5%
6% 38% HGV
50%
Non-TfL
Bus and
Coach
14The evidence base: determining the effectiveness of solutions 15
Understanding how polluting different vehicle types are:
legislated emissions standards
Euro 4 petrol is an equivalent
NOx standard to Euro 6 diesel
16Understanding how polluting different vehicle types
are: TfL test data
New European Drive Cycle (NEDC)
140.0
NEDC Cycle - 2 Phase Test
Phase 2 - EUDC Cycle
Phase 1 - ECE Cycle - 0 - 800 Seconds
Phase 2 - EUDC Cycle - 801 - 1200 Seconds
120.0
100.0 TfL Passenger Car Drive Cycle
Speed (km/h)
Phase 1 - ECE Cycle
80.0
120
60.0
100
80
Velocity (km/h)
40.0
20.0
60
0.0
40
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
20 Time (Seconds)
0
1101
1211
1321
1431
1541
1651
1761
1871
1981
2091
2201
2311
1
111
221
331
441
551
661
771
881
991
Time (seconds)
17Understanding how polluting different vehicle types
are: TfL test data
18
https://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/environment/clearing-londons-air/euro-6-emissionsUnderstanding how polluting different vehicle types are:
developing a bespoke retrofit standard for TfL buses
Criterion from Euro III retrofit TfL Compared
programme in 2012 Standard to EU
Emissions
legislation
PM conversion (%) >90 ~ EU VI
NOx conversion (%) >70 > EU V
NO2 conversion (%) >50 Not limited
Success
Criterion Peak NH3 slip (ppm)The evidence base: the role of incentives for the taxi industry 20
Reducing emissions from the taxi fleet
• Rules around setting fares and picking up passengers mean taxis cannot sensibly be
incorporated into a road charging scheme like private hire vehicles
• Needed to find a solution that used the licensing rules
• Plug-in petrol hybrid vehicles, that meet the other standards required of taxis, are
in development
• Shifting the taxi fleet to these Zero Emission Capable (ZEC) vehicles will
dramatically decrease their emissions (currently emissions are equivalent to a large
diesel van)
• From 2018 all new taxis must be ZEC.
– EmittingHow to accelerate the uptake of ZEC taxis
• Around 1200 - 1400 new vehilces enter the market each year in London
• Currently vehicles can licensed until they are 15 years old
• Grants would be available to lower the upfront cost of a Zero Emission Capable
taxi
• But to achieve the necessary emissions savings we needed to accelerate the uptake
and remove the older vehicles from the fleet sooner.
• A key part of accelerating the uptake is to create movement within the fleet
22Regulatory solution
• Initially proposed to reduce the age limit for licensed taxis from 15 years to
10 years
• In doing so we wanted to acknowledge the impact on vehicle values and
offer compensation
23Incentive solution
• Due to the pressures on the taxi industry the Mayor didn’t want to place
further regulation on the market
• Therefore we developed a voluntary decommissioning scheme
• Between 2017 and 2020 owners of vehicles older than 10 years can receive
a payment to remove that vehicle from the London fleet
• Vehicle doesn’t have to be scrapped but cannot be licensed in London
again
• Amount of money given starts at around £5,000 for an 11 year old vehicle
and decreases as the vehicle gets older.
• Assessment of the policy involved modelling the response from different
segments of the market (fleet owners, owner operators etc).
24A note on procurement of cameras 25
A large part of our assessment of the central ULEZ charging
scheme relied on the use of Automatic Number Pate
Recognition cameras.
• Good coverage in
central London due to
congestion charge
• Capture a lot of vehicle
movements
• Data matched to the UK
licensing database but
we don’t get all the
information we need
(Euro standards) so
need to infer it
26Now looking at a larger area of London and we have issues
with our bespoke user interface in capturing the necessary
data
• Coverage outside of CCZ is
much more sparse
• Set up for monitoring heavy
vehicle movements, not cars
• User interface not set up to
interrogate datasets by
“inner” and “outer” London
• Importance of recognising
sub-categories more
important (e.g. residents)
• Much larger dataset
27Creating new zones means more enforcement cameras
which comes with a cost
• New zone is 18 times the size of the Central ULEZ
• Very little enforcement equipment currently in place and potentially large
costs to set up
• Need to determine the appropriate level of camera coverage to encourage
compliance Boundary Only Key Radial and Cordon Complete coverage
Routes
Vehicles captured No intra-boundary Avoiding is difficult – Unable to avoid even on
trips captured – these majority of traffic captured minor roads
are c.40 per cent of - c.100 per cent captured
inner London trips
Compliance and Low High Very High
emissions savings
Cost (installation Tens of millions to set Variable depending on >£100m to install and
and running) up and operate each number of routes covered operate each year
year
28Any questions?
clairecheriyan@tfl.gov.uk
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