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www.policymagazine.ca March — April 2022
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
Leadership and Turmoil
$7.95 Volume 10 – Issue 2
Leadership
avisé
RBC
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For more information about Green Collar Jobs please visit:
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In This Issue
Canadian Politics
Leadership
and Public and Turmoil
Policy
5 Thomas S. Axworthy
Has Canada Turned the Page on Foreign Policy Passivity?
Canadian Politics and
Public Policy 9 Jeremy Kinsman
The Ukraine Crisis: Putin’s Fateful War of Choice. Why?
EDITOR AND PUBLISHER
L. Ian MacDonald
lianmacdonald@gmail.com
12 Yaroslav Baran
Vladimir Putin, History’s Latest Chaos Actor
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Lisa Van Dusen
15 Lisa Van Dusen
Absurdity, Dear Boy, Absurdity: Presidential Leadership in
lvandusen@policymagazine.ca a New Kind of Turmoil
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Thomas S. Axworthy, 17 Lori Turnbull
The Requirements of Post-Blockade Leadership: Trust
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran,
James Baxter, Daniel Béland,
vs. Division, Unity vs. Opportunism
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano,
Stéphanie Chouinard, Margaret Clarke,
19 John Delacourt
Responding to the Unprecedented: The Politics of the Emergencies Act
Rachel Curran, Paul Deegan,
John Delacourt, Susan Delacourt, 21 Don Newman
After the Siege: Winners and Losers
Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier,
Helaina Gaspard, Martin Goldfarb,
Sarah Goldfeder, Patrick Gossage,
Frank Graves, Jeremy Kinsman, Preview – Budget 2022
Shachi Kurl, Philippe Lagassé,
Brad Lavigne, Jeremy Leonard,
Kevin Lynch, Leslie MacKinnon,
22 Kevin Page with Sahib Dhaliwal and Meagan Frendo
Fiscal Policy in a Time of Radical Uncertainty
Peter Mansbridge, Carissima Mathen,
Elizabeth May, Velma McColl, 24 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan
Macro Forecasting in Turbulent Times
Elizabeth Moody McIninch,
David McLaughlin, David Mitchell,
Don Newman, Geoff Norquay,
26 Perrin Beatty and Mark Agnew
Budget 2022: Getting Serious about Economic Growth
Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page,
André Pratte, Lee Richardson, 28 Cynthia Leach
Budgeting for a New Era of Greener, More Robust Growth
Colin Robertson, Robin V. Sears,
Vianne Timmons, Brian Topp,
Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt,
30 John Stackhouse
Energy Crisis to Climate Opportunity: Budget 2022 and Beyond
Anthony Wilson-Smith,
Dan Woynillowicz
WEB DESIGN
Nicolas Landry Canada
policy@nicolaslandry.ca
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
33 Robin V. Sears
Ed Broadbent, Improbable Giant of Social Democracy
Grace MacDonald
gmacdonald@policymagazine.ca 37 Elizabeth Moody McIninch
The Generational Change in War and Remembrance
GRAPHIC DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
Benoit Deneault
DESIGN CONSULTANT
Monica Thomas Book Reviews
Policy 41 Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith
Trump, Trudeau, Tweets, Truth: A Conversation
Policy is published six times annually
by LPAC Ltd. The contents are By Bill Fox
copyrighted, but may be reproduced
with permission and attribution in 43 Review by Lisa Van Dusen
Chasing History: A Kid in the Newsroom
print, and viewed free of charge at the
Policy home page at policymagazine.ca. By Carl Bernstein
Price: $7.95 per issue
Annual Subscription: $45.95 45 Review by James Munson
Cobalt: Cradle of the Demon Metals, Birth of a Mining Superpower
PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY By Charlie Angus
St. Joseph Communications,
1165 Kenaston Street,
Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4
47 Review by Paul Deegan
Ice War Diplomat: Hockey Meets Cold War Politics at the 1972 Summit Series
Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf By Gary J. Smith
Lounges across Canada, as well as
VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa
and Toronto.
Now available on PressReader.
Connect with us: @policy_mag facebook.com/policymagazine
Canada’s forests have a critical role to play in our collective fight against climate change. But how we manage them matters. Sustainable forest management and harvested wood products work together to capture and store carbon. Now is the time for Canada to leverage the power of sustainable forest management as a nature-based climate solution to deliver on our international commitments, grow our forest-based economy, and help our forests adapt to a changing climate. Learn more: forestryforthefuture.ca
4
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Leadership and Turmoil
W
elcome to the onset of “We have a huge task ahead of us as as founding chair of his important
spring, which we mark a democracy: we need to understand public policy institute on its 10th
with a cover package on what happened and why.” anniversary, which also marks his
the important and timely theme of 86th birthday. Robin has known Ed
The implications of these disruptive
Leadership and Turmoil. since the 1970s, and served as na-
events, home and away, are some-
From the occupation of Ottawa by a tional director of the NDP during
thing to be considered in a minori-
disruptive horde of blockaders to the Broadbent’s years as party leader.
ty Parliament, where leadership and
invasion of Ukraine by a Russian ty- government are on the line every day And in a moving recollection of her
rant, unwelcome and dangerous events in the House. John Delacourt offers father and his generation’s wartime
have posed unprecedented challenges his assessment of the politics of the service to Canada and freedom, Eliz-
to democracy and prosperity for Cana- Emergencies Act, while Don New- abeth Moody McIninch writes how
dian and international leaders. man weighs in with his column. they suffered from Post Traumatic
Tom Axworthy begins by making a Stress Disorder, before it was known
In our look ahead to Budget 2022, Kev-
case that Canada’s role as a leading as PTSD. Their plight was ignored by
in Page and student co-authors Sa-
middle power on the world stage has Ottawa, as has been the case for suc-
hib Dhaliwal and Megan Frendo write
diminished in the 21st century. ceeding generations of Canadian ser-
that traditional budgetary benchmarks
vice men and women, a scandalous
Jeremy Kinsman, a former ambassador to have been overtaken by new expecta-
situation to this day.
both Russia and to the European Union, tions for post-pandemic recovery.
brings a deeply informed perspective Finally, in Books: Spring List, we’re
Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan note
that the Putin Problem dates from the delighted to lead off with Anthony
that inflation, a supply management
end of the Cold War and the collapse Wilson-Smith’s strong review of Bill
crisis and labour shortages have also
of the Soviet empire three decades ago. Fox’s Trump, Trudeau, Tweets, Truth: A
confounded the conventional world
Mikhail Gorbachev won a Nobel Peace Conversation, an important work on
of budget forecasting. From the Ca-
Prize in 1990 for his historic role in end- media from a highly reliable source.
nadian Chamber of Commerce, CEO
ing the Cold War, but the 21st-century Lisa Van Dusen weighs in with her re-
Perrin Beatty and Senior VP Mark
ascension of the former KGB operative view of Carl Bernstein’s Chasing Histo-
Agnew say business wants Ottawa
has reversed that progress. ry: A Kid in the Newsroom, about how
to look past crisis management of
Yaroslav Baran, a prominent member the pandemic to encouraging new the Watergate legend fell in love with
of Canada’s Ukrainian diaspora, takes growth of the economy. In terms of the business at 16 as a copy boy, and
us through the historical context of delivering on commitments to clean who he was before he became half of
Ukrainian-Russian relations down to energy on climate change, RBC’s history’s most indelible byline.
the present-day crisis precipitated by Cynthia Leach considers post-pan- James Munson offers his assess-
the current occupant of the Kremlin. demic fiscal realities, as well as in- ment of Cobalt, the new bestseller
Our associate editor, Lisa Van Dusen, flation and commitments to social from NDP MP Charlie Angus on the
from her years in and writing about programs. And In the wake of the northern Ontario mining town and
Washington, brings exceptional in- disruptive invasion of Ukraine, RBC its role in developing Canada’s re-
sights to the pressures on President Joe Senior VP John Stackhouse suggests source-based economy. And, as the
Biden as leader of the Western world, “the emerging energy crisis of 2022 50th anniversary of the epic Cana-
particularly following the disastrous could become a climate opportunity da-Russia hockey series approaches
presidency of his predecessor. for 2023 and beyond.” in September, Paul Deegan looks at
I
At home, it took the Emergencies n our Canada section, we are de- Ice War Diplomat, by Gary J. Smith,
Act, never invoked since its passage lighted to offer two remarkable then a young officer in the foreign
in 1988, to end the illegal shutdown long-form articles. Robin Sears service, which played a role in mak-
of a G7 capital for three weeks. Now, offers a tribute to former NDP Lead- ing it happen.
as Dalhousie’s Lori Turnbull writes: er Ed Broadbent, retiring in March Enjoy.
Policy
5
LEADERSHIP AND TURMOIL
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with President Joe Biden at a virtual bilateral news conference in 2021. --Adam Scotti photo
Has Canada Turned the Page
on Foreign Policy Passivity?
Like so many things in our 21st-century, post-internet jobs and economic growth is also crit-
ical. Over three quarters (77 percent)
context of geopolitical competition, foreign policy isn’t what also believe it is important to be influ-
it used to be. The fight for domination once manifested ential on the world stage, a perspective
our political leaders should embrace
in battles over territory and spheres of influence now since foreign policy was almost totally
plays out in narrative warfare on social media screens absent from issues debated in the 2019
and in previously unthinkable headlines. Tom Axworthy, and 2021 election campaigns.
who served as a senior advisor to Prime Minister Pierre But the survey also reveals a critical dis-
connect between mass and informed
Trudeau, writes that Canada’s foreign policy needs a opinion, a chasm that informs the rest
reboot. Activism over Ukraine may be the spur. of this article. Sixty-three percent of Ca-
nadians believe that Canada is very or
Thomas S. Axworthy Canadians understand this: a recent moderately influential in world affairs,
(January 2022) comprehensive survey an increase of 10 percent since 2020.
I
n Policy Magazine in March 2018, by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute on This is a dangerous delusion. If Cana-
former Foreign Affairs Minister Canadian attitudes towards foreign dians believe we are influential in the
John Baird succinctly described policy found that 87 percent of Cana- world when we are not, this lets our de-
the fundamentals of a successful for- dians believe that defending Canadian cision makers off the hook — they can
eign policy: “Foreign policy is about values, such as democracy and human continue to under-invest in the mili-
two things: promoting our values rights, on the world stage, is important tary and development aid, play to do-
and promoting our interests.” and 85 percent believe that pursuing mestic voting blocs rather than do the
March—April 2022
6
hard work of diplomacy, and be con-
It is abundantly clear that in the realm of world
tent with government by press release
instead of building capabilities. politics and international relations, the phone
Contrary to the broadly held public
lines in the PMO, prior to the crisis in Ukraine, had not
view that Canada’s foreign policy in- exactly been ringing off the hook.
fluence is strong and even rising, the
annual review of the Canadian Foreign
Policy Journal gave only a C grade over-
times or roughly once a decade under politics and international relations,
all to Canadian foreign policy in 2021,
with the sub-categories of diplomacy prime ministers St-Laurent, Diefen- the phone lines in the PMO, prior to
and defence receiving a D+. Looking baker, Pearson, Trudeau, Mulroney the crisis in Ukraine, had not exactly
at results, versus the rhetoric of the and Chrétien. Unlike Australia, Can- been ringing off the hook.
Justin Trudeau government, the au- ada was not asked to join the 15-na- It was not always so. In the 50 years of
thors conclude: “This government has tion Regional Comprehensive Eco- the post-war era after 1945, roughly to
failed to provide any strategic guid- nomic Partnership in Asia. Signed in the end of the 20th century, Canada
ance on foreign policy since 2015.” 2020, this pact will create the world’s was often the first mover in suggesting
In 2020, Canada failed in its at- largest trading zone. Nor was Can- important initiatives such as NATO by
tempt to win election to a UN Secu- ada asked to join the United States, Louis St-Laurent or the Arctic Council
rity Council rotating seat, which fol- Australia and the United Kingdom in by Brian Mulroney. Canada had suffi-
lowed a failed attempt of the Harper 2021 in AUKUS, a new defence pact cient military resources to make peace-
government in 2010. Prior to the last aimed at containing the growing mil- keeping a reality (and a subsequent
20 years, Canada had been elected itary might of China. It is abundant- vocation) after Lester B. Pearson first
to the Security Council rotation six ly clear that in the realm of world suggested the concept in 1956. Under
Pierre Trudeau’s leadership, in 1976,
Canada was asked to join the G7, the
key coordinating body of democratic
economic powers. Mulroney’s govern-
ment negotiated the Canada-US Free
Trade Agreement of 1988 and Chré-
tien’s government initiated the Otta-
wa treaty on prohibiting the stockpil-
ing and use of landmines.
And it was not only ministers or prime
ministers who made a contribution:
many Canadian public servants and
diplomats were recognized by the
world community for their excellence.
John Humphrey drafted the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights in 1948,
John Allan Beesley was chair of the
drafting committee for the Law of the
Sea in the 1970s, and Elizabeth Dowd-
eswell in the 1980s helped negotiate
the Framework Agreement on Climate
Change and was subsequently elected
to head the United Nations Environ-
ment Program.
There have been foreign policy
achievements, of course, since 2000:
the Harper government negotiated the
Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic
and Trade Agreement (CETA) in 2014
and the current government of Jus-
Prime Minister Brian Mulroney built a close bilateral relationship with US Presidents Ronald Reagan
tin Trudeau preserved the NAFTA free
and George H.W. Bush, which enhanced Canada’s standing on the international stage on trade and trade agreement from the onslaught
the environment, and at the end of the Cold War. --Library and Archives Canada photo of Donald Trump, but the record of
Policy
7
achievement in the last 20 years looks
pretty thin when compared to the
highlights of the previous 60.
The main distinguishing feature be-
tween the successful foreign policy
achievements of 1945-2000 compared
to the recent lacklustre record is that the
prime ministers of the day understood
the realities of the world they had in-
herited. They adapted Canada’s foreign
policies to meet the challenges, they in-
vested in the tools of defence, develop-
ment and diplomacy to give Canada ca-
pabilities to match objectives, and they
personally engaged with foreign policy
priorities, sometimes even taking large
political risks to achieve their goals. The
postwar governments of Louis St-Lau-
rent and Lester Pearson understood that
the isolationism of Mackenzie King had
to go and they created the framework
of building international organizations
and regimes to bind, or at least influ-
ence, the great powers to follow inter-
national norms collectively negotiated.
They also invested in defence so that Prime Minister Louis St-Laurent with President Dwight D. Eisenhower at the White House in 1956,
as well as launching the idea of NATO, shortly before the creation of the North American Air Defence Command in 1957. Previously, St-Lau-
rent led Canada at the founding of NATO in 1949. --Toronto Star photo, courtesy Toronto Public Library
Canada made one of the most signifi-
cant early deployments to Europe. In
1960, according to the World Bank, skills of persuasion to bring this about. an War Museum, for example, recalled
Canada was still allocating 4 percent of James A. Baker, the influential secre- a visit to Ottawa by President Bush,
GDP to military expenditure, by 2020 tary of state for President George H.W., who asked his Canadian hosts for ideas
this had fallen to 1.4 percent. Bush has written: “Brian Mulroney un- on arms control. Officials came up with
C
oming to power in 1968, Pierre derstood that one of the major sources the idea of a revamped Open Skies pro-
Trudeau recognized that the age of Canada’s global influence rested on posal to build trust. When Mulroney
of colonial empire was over and building strong and durable ties with raised the idea with Bush in a subse-
that countries in Africa, Latin America, the United States.” The 1987 negoti- quent meeting at the White House, the
and Asia wanted their own voice and ation of the Canada-US FTA was one President made the proposal his own.
independent sway. He began by recog- result of this influence, but there were In the 1990s, the world was chang-
nizing the People’s Republic of China. lesser-known achievements, too. John ing again with the fall of the Berlin
He promoted La Francophonie, creat- Noble, in a 2020 address to the Canadi- Wall and the collapse of the Soviet
ed the International Development Re- Union. It was a hopeful era and the
search Center, was sympathetic to the government of Jean Chrétien, urged
Group of 77 developing nations who The main on by his foreign minister, Lloyd Ax-
sought economic fairness with the distinguishing worthy, moved with the times. Ot-
West and, in 1978, created Operation feature between the tawa proposed a new human securi-
Lifeline as an initiative to allow private successful foreign policy ty agenda with initiatives on a land
sponsorship of refugees, a first in the mines treaty, support of an Interna-
world. Trudeau allocated 0.5 percent of
achievements of 1945-2000 tional Criminal Court and an ethic
GDP to development assistance-today compared to the recent of the Responsibility to Protect perse-
it is only half as large at 0.26. Norway, lacklustre record is that cuted peoples even at the expense of
one of the countries that defeated Can- the prime ministers of the traditional state sovereignty. Chré-
ada for a seat on the Security Council tien and Axworthy took risks in call-
in 2020 spends over 1 percent of its
day understood the realities ing for a 1996 Ottawa conference to
GDP on development, Brian Mulroney of the world they had draft the landmine treaty — the US
wanted a robust relationship with the inherited. was opposed and who knew how
United States and used his notable many states would sign on? The saf-
March—April 2022
8
Prime Minister Jean Chrétien and President Bill Clinton in Ottawa in 1995. The Chrétien government successfully proposed an international land-
mines treaty initially opposed by the US. --Bernard Weil photo
est course was not to take any chanc- veloped reputation, which is a soft surefooted. Canada not only joined
es. But successful prime ministers take power asset. Canada has enjoyed the its allies in imposing economic sanc-
risks and when, in December 1996, reputation of a well-governed, order- tions on Russia and delivering weap-
the UN General assembly adopted a ly, prosperous, peaceful state which ons to Ukraine, but it has been a leader
resolution to ban anti-personnel land ranks high in human development in denying airspace to Russian civilian
mines, it had had 115 co-sponsors. indexes and is one of the immigra- aircraft, calling for the SWIFT transac-
tion magnets of the world. tions system to be added to the eco-
The Land Mines Treaty also shows the nomic sanctions and petitioning the
centrality of the partnership between This reputation, however, may now
be at risk. The recent obstruction of International Criminal Court to inves-
the leader of the government and the tigate alleged Russian war crimes.
the border with the United States,
foreign minister: St-Laurent-Pearson,
disruption of supply chains and com- In defending values and promoting in-
Trudeau-MacEachen, Mulroney-Clark,
mandeering of downtown Ottawa, terests internationally, Canadians need
Chrétien-Axworthy all complemented
the nation’s capital, by illegal block- a government capable of understand-
each other and brought different skills
ades has led to Canada, of all coun- ing the world and willing to invest the
to the table. The current Trudeau gov- tries, being identified as ground zero financial and human resources neces-
ernment has had five ministers of for- for a new form of anti-democracy at- sary to build reputation and achieve
eign affairs in a little over six years. No tack. In Canada today, a truck has be- real results. Preaching from a safe dis-
government serious about foreign pol- come a political weapon. tance is no substitute for such a needed
icy allows a revolving door to charac- strategy. The war in Ukraine may be a
But recent weeks have seen a burst of
terize its approach to the management turning point in showing that Canada
government activism: the Trudeau
of international relations. once again understands this truth.
government brought in the Emergen-
T
he successful prime ministers cies Act to give police new powers to Contributing Writer Thomas S, Axwor-
were able to take hard assets end the illegal blockades and, no soon- thy, Public Policy Chair of Massey Col-
of power – military strength er had this crisis ended, another began lege at University of Toronto, was Prin-
and economic clout – and use them with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Here cipal Secretary to Prime Minister Pierre
to achieve results. This, in turn, de- the government has been bold and Trudeau from 1981-84.
Policy9
Putin’s Fateful War of Choice
On behalf of the world, the Secretary-General of the UN plies this suggests Ukraine/Russian is-
sues are “family” matters. But Tolstoy
said February 23 on the eve of Russia’s all-out assault: also reminded us each unhappy fam-
“President Putin, stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. ily is unhappy in its own way (and
some can break up violently).
Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”
Start instead with the Bolshevik Rev-
He went ahead, with implications unknown at time of olution in 1917, which enveloped ev-
writing. The narrative informing events between Russia erybody across the Russian Empire in
and Ukraine, Russia and the West and Vladimir Putin and shared traumatic unhappiness from vi-
olent Soviet police-state Communism.
Joe Biden dates back to post-Cold War loose ends of the
PTSD, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder,
1990s. Longtime senior diplomat and former Ambassador can affect whole societies. Soviet trau-
to Moscow Jeremy Kinsman, who was there, explains. ma was suppressed by the immediate
need to resist Hitler’s murderous in-
vasion and by pride in postwar indus-
Jeremy Kinsman Background. “Tout comprendre, c’est tout trial and scientific accomplishments.
pardonner” (To understand all is to But Stalinist persecution of Ukrainian
F
oreground: Russia has invaded for-give all). This classic French apho- kulaks (wealthy farmers), state-creat-
Ukraine, all of it, as naked an ag- rism, lifted by both Tolstoy in War and ed starvation, gulags, and mass purges
gression as the world has seen Peace and Evelyn Waugh in Brideshead left cumulative psychological scarring.
since 1939. Revisited, is a romantic notion. Under-
Mikhail Gorbachev’s transformative
The US has for weeks been predict- standing what makes others tick, espe- programs of glasnost (openness) and
ing Russia intended to invade. This cially adversaries, is vital. But in diploma- perestroika (reconstruction) in the mid-
unilateral aggression of choice has cy, forgiveness is irrelevant. Diplomacy 1980s, to undo the police state and to
prompted almost universal condem- seeks livable, workable, outcomes from open up society and the economy, were
nation, and severe sanctions against clashes of interests, values, and even seen in the US as acceptance of dysfunc-
Russia. memory, requiring give and take. tional inability to compete in the arms
Putin seems confident Russia can Sadly, for this, diplomacy has suc- race and the international economy.
withstand economic sanctions be- cumbed to sheer force, for now. The USSR economy could have stag-
cause of its low debt and very am- Understanding where the antagonist, gered on several more years. Gor-
ple reserves ($620 billion), the strong Russia, is coming from is buried in bachev’s principal motive was a moral
price of oil and gas, his presumption traumas of its murderous 20th century judgment that transformation of Sovi-
China will substitute its economic history. Putin cherishes distant 10th et society needed prior relief of the leg-
support (not certain), and proven Rus- century ties, when Vladimir the Great acy of state crime. In advocating for
sian resilience. But Russia’s certain in- adopted Christianity for the Kievan openness and truth, he isolated Eastern
ternational isolation as a pariah state Rus, foretelling the spread of Eastern European puppet regimes, enabling
will be very uncomfortable. Domestic Orthodoxy into greater Russia. He im- mass dissent that exploded in Novem-
political support for war and its conse- ber, 1989, with the breach of the Ber-
quences are low. Vladimir Putin’s jus- lin Wall. The tumble of Communist re-
tification on grounds of Russian griev-
at the post-Gulf gimes eviscerated the Warsaw Pact of
ances, past and present, will possibly War G7 London meaning. At the Open Skies meeting in
play much less well than the dictator Summit, Gorbachev’s guest Ottawa in January, 1990, West Germa-
in his bubble believes. appearance on the veranda ny and East Germany, (GDR), agreed
How did it come to this, a flagrant of Lancaster House drew with the Second World War’s occupy-
ing powers, the USSR, the US, France
violation of international law, thor- officials lunching in the and the UK (“two plus four”) to negoti-
ough disruption of international be-
havioural norms, and of European
garden below spontaneously ate Germany’s reunification. It was the
peace that have governed affairs for to their feet to applaud the beginning of the end of the Cold War.
three quarters of a century? What do man most of them credited NATO ministers next met June 7th,
we need to understand about Russia? with ending the Cold War. 1990, under Margaret Thatcher’s chair-
Where to begin? manship at Turnberry Golf Course
March—April 202210
hard road. Havel reversed his inclina-
tion to dissolve both alliances, seeing
that NATO’s brand offered precious
Western identity credentials.
R
ussian attention was inward. Gor-
bachev had undertaken emanci-
pation from state Communism
without a lucid “Plan B” to transform
the economy. No one knew how, least
of all Western advisers whose “shock
therapy” had triggered economic and
social free-fall. An August coup by bit-
ter Communist throwbacks failed, but
Gorbachev’s popularity tanked. Rival
reformist president of the Russian Re-
public Boris Yeltsin failed to push him
Mikhail Gorbachev with President George H.W. Bush at the Helsinki Summit in September 1990, mark-
ing the end of the Cold War, and the pending reunification of Germany. --Bush Presidential Library photo out, so Yeltsin broke up the USSR.
That decision was made December 8th,
in Scotland (now owned by Don- Gorbachev endorsed a UN-sponsored in- 1991, at a Belarussian hunting lodge
ald Trump). German Foreign Minis- ternational force to reverse Saddam Hus- by Yeltsin and Leonid Kravchuk, par-
ter Hans-Dietrich Genscher agreed to sein’s invasion of Kuwait a month earli- ty boss of Ukraine. On December 20,
propose a “Message from Turnberry” er. Discussion intensified over Europe’s at the inaugural meeting of the North
to “seize the historic opportunities re- security architecture in light of momen- Atlantic Cooperation Council – the 16
sulting from the profound changes .... tous changes. Some leaders – Germany’s NATO and nine members of the War-
to help build a new peaceful order in Genscher, Czech leader Václav Havel – saw Pact – at which I was present in
Europe.” German Political Director Di- questioned the need for both NATO and Brussels, the Soviet ambassador, called
eter Kastrup asked his Canadian coun- the Warsaw Pact. repeatedly to the phone from Mos-
terpart, me, to shape the English. To- cow, relayed his instruction to remove
In November 1990, a grandiose Eu-
gether, with External Affairs Minister the USSR’s nameplate from the table.
rope-North American Paris summit de-
Joe Clark’s encouragement, we crafted We adjourned, believing that NATO’s
scribed as the Cold War peace confer-
NATO’s short message, “to extend to intrinsic vocation as an alliance orga-
ence launched Gorbachev’s concept
the Soviet Union and to all other Euro- nized in hostile opposition to Moscow
of a European common home, from
pean countries the hand of friendship was over. (It would return.)
“Vancouver to Vladivostok.” It created
and cooperation.” Headlines the next the Organization for Security and Co- For 20 years, NATO explored a wider
morning signaled the actual end of the operation in Europe (OSCE). In June, role (summarized in the post-Cold War
Cold War. The euphoria wouldn’t last. 1991, at the post-Gulf War G7 Lon- catchphrase “out of area or out of busi-
G
ermany’s reunification needed don Summit, Gorbachev’s guest ap- ness”), undertaking airstrikes in 1999 to
prior withdrawal of 400,000 So- pearance on the veranda of Lancaster end Slobodan Milosevic’s ethnic cleans-
viet troops. Chancellor Helmut House drew officials lunching in the ing siege of Kosovo. After the attacks of
Kohl offered Moscow massive financial garden below spontaneously to their 9/11, Canada moved that NATO for the
compensation. At a Bush-Gorbachev feet to applaud the man most of them first time activate Article 5 of its Char-
summit in early September 1990 in credited with ending the Cold War. ter to intervene collectively in response
Helsinki, Secretary of State James Baker to an attack on an alliance member,
But the summer’s confidence waned
(presented as “my lawyer,” by George launching its long and painful engage-
as unprecedented transformation
H.W. Bush) assured Gorbachev that as ment in Afghanistan. In 2011, NATO
challenges arose. In Warsaw, Budapest
USSR forces pulled out of East Germa- bombed Moammar Ghaddaffi’s army in
and Prague, newly empowered politi-
ny, NATO forces would not move “one Libya as it advanced on Benghazi.
cal dissidents with scant experience of
M
inch” to the East. Baker says he meant running anything, much less govern- eanwhile, the USSR’s 290 mil-
“into East Germany.” Gorbachev re- ments, found that opposition to pri- lion citizens broke into 15
grets his that his acquiescence implies or Communist regimes didn’t extend separate countries, surpris-
he had accepted NATO expansion. to unity on what to do next. These ingly peacefully. Twenty million eth-
Having myself asked both Baker and Gor- Western European societies shut in nic Russians opted to stay in non-Rus-
bachev in their retirements, I concluded by the Iron Curtain, yearning to re- sian new republics. Concern for Russian
the question was lost in translation at join Europe, now grasped that satisfy- minorities in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the
the buoyantly cordial Helsinki summit ing entry requirements of the Europe- Baltics, Moldova, and Georgia would
where, as Baker told NATO the next day, an Community would be a long and preoccupy Moscow for years. To fill
Policy11
the national identity space vacated by Putin manufactured wish the two countries to re-unite). It
Communism, leaders of new republics would isolate Russia for years, what-
often drew from established hostility to
this crisis knowing ever Putin’s closer but still wary auto-
the USSR, which they easily conflated Ukraine is not joining NATO, cratic fraternity with Xi Jinping.
with the Russian Republic. Russians, but in order to reclaim great NATO had been ready to address Rus-
who had decisively pushed breaking up power influence, greater sian security concerns — on inter-
the USSR and who had suffered more
from the Communist oppression than
Russia/NATO security parity. mediate nuclear weapons, military
infrastructure placement, and the
anyone, resented it. bigger picture, before Russia invaded
But they remained engulfed by insti- served to re-join interrupted European its neighbour. Now, there will be no
tutional collapse at home. The Rus- legacies. Most conceded, too, that the Summits for Putin with world leaders,
sian Navy’s commander told me when shameful 1940 annexation of the Bal- probably ever again.
I was serving as Canadian Ambassador tic states into the USSR via a deal with
Relations will now enter a nuclear winter
to Moscow that he was an out-place- Nazi Germany deserved remedy. The
of mutual opposition between Putin and
ment manager. We saw rotting hulks of entry of Romania, Bulgaria Slovenia,
the US, the West and even democracy.
nuclear-powered ships in Vladivostok. Slovakia, etc., was sullenly digested.
B W
Yeltsin begged for material western as- e are dealing with the af-
ut it was always clear that NA-
sistance. US President Bill Clinton un- termath of momentous
TO’s inclusion of Ukraine or
derstood the potential costs of letting events three decades ago.
Georgia would cross a red line.
“ol’ Boris” down but couldn’t move We lazily believed then we were liv-
Putin manufactured this crisis to pro-
Congress to do much to support Rus- ing the “end of history”, heralding
tect that line with an unobtainable
sia. By 1998, amid chaos and corrup- universal coalescence around a West-
formal agreement NATO will not ex-
tion, Russian democratic reformers fell ern democratic and market-based
pand, though he knows that in reality
decisively out of favour. Meanwhile, in model. We couldn’t know it would
Ukraine is not joining NATO. He wish-
1999 NATO admitted new members, almost crash in the financial collapse
es to reclaim for Russia great power in-
Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland. of 2008 or that an increasingly auto-
fluence, and greater Russia/NATO se-
cratic Putin would radicalize his hos-
The post-Yeltsin battle began. His curity parity. He believes the “Minsk
tile behaviour.
family turned to Vladimir Putin, re- accords” that meant to stabilize con-
putedly a reliable go-to apparatchik flict with the rebels of Donetsk and His distortion of truth and lethal
who quietly got things done. He re- Lugansk and award more autonomy threat to lives for the sake of a de-
placed Yeltsin on January 1, 2000. His to the Russian-speaking Donbas are monic dream of repossessing a dis-
first official foreign visitor was NATO’s hopelessly stalled. He chose aggression possessed past have, as Masha Gessen
Secretary general, George Robertson. against Ukraine for daring to exist. writes in the New Yorker, made it im-
Putin successfully redressed economic possible for decent people in Moscow
Putin wanted Ukraine to fail. A suc-
disarray and stabilized politics to pub- and Kiev “to live and to breathe.” It
cessful democratic Ukraine could be
lic acclaim, telling Russians that what must be ghastly for them.
mortally contagious to his corrupt
they needed was not another revolu- autocracy. He is a cynical and high- Life may now become ghastly for
tion, but a “Great Russia.” ly competitive man who sees democ- many more Russians who shrugged
But his growing subtraction from re- racy idealists as hypocritical, phony their shoulders at Putin’s absurd ex-
cently-gained democratic space in- US stooges. He prefers believing that cesses while enjoying new wealth
creased opposition from professional a Ukraine subordinate to Putin retain and travel, now about to be curtailed.
and middle classes, chafing at their im- operational features just like Russia’s, He is their disgrace, their madman -
posed “political infancy.” Putin played where corrupt oligarchs call the shots. no other way to put it.
the popular nationalist card, exploit- His choice of invading Ukraine, invit- Nonetheless, we need to understand
ing what former UK Foreign Minister ing death and destruction, and real the past and present to meet author
David Miliband describes as a legacy costs to his own country, raise issues F. Scott Fitzgerald’s functional test
of Russian humiliation at being treat- of the Russian leader’s grasp of reality of a first-rate intelligence — when
ed as the Cold War’s “losers,” to earn and certainly of morality. things seem hopeless, to determine
applause for standing up to the West. to make them otherwise.
Does he represent Russian opinion?
Western dismissal ofRussian positions Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman,
The surprise 2014 annexation of Rus-
that NATO’s expansion up to Russia’s served as Canadian Ambassador to
sian-speaking Crimea was popular in
borders violates 1990s understandings Moscow from 1992-96, as well as Am-
Russia but almost destroyed relations
“outlandish” fuelled the resentment. bassador to Rome, High Commissioner
with the West. By contrast, military
Still, most Russians were sufficiently incursion and occupation in Ukraine to London and Ambassador to the EU.
objective to understand that Czecho- would find little public support (only He is currently a Distinguished Fellow of
slovaks, Hungarians, and Poles de- 17 percent according to a Levada poll the Canadian International Council.
March—April 202212
Vladimir Putin, History’s
Latest Chaos Actor
In the unrelenting parade of chaos circuses that has besieged its own language and culture distinct
from that of medieval Ukraine.
the global public sphere since 2014, a war has now broken
Ukraine, in contrast, was moving to-
out in Europe. As the world watches the struggle between ward a more central-European orien-
an aspiring new world order dictator on one side and tation, with increasing political, trade
and cultural association with Lithu-
democracy, NATO, Europe and the United States on the ania and Poland. From this mix also
other, Ukraine expert and Earnscliffe Strategies Principal emerged one of Europe’s first proto-de-
Yaroslav Baran provides the backstory to Vladimir Putin’s mocracies: the “free state” of Cossacks
(which means “free men” in Turkic)
Ukraine obsession, along with some invaluable insight on established on the Ukrainian steppe
anti-Putin strategy. This is an updated version of a Policy and pushing out foreign overlords:
Lithuanians and Poles to the west, Ot-
Online piece published on January 27th. toman Turks to the south, and Mus-
covite invaders from the northeast.
A divergence in political culture also
Yaroslav Baran east of the medieval Ukrainian king- emerged; while Moscow increasingly
dom, then called-Kievan-Rus’ or Kiev- embraced the tenets of absolute mon-
T
he months-long crisis at an Ruthenia (after its capital and the archism, the Cossack Hetmanate in
Ukraine’s borders became a Rus’ Vikings who established the state). Ukraine yielded Europe’s first modern
full-fledged invasion – likely Yuri fled and regrouped in a sparse- constitution, post-Florentine republic
Europe’s biggest since 1945 – on Feb- ly-populated forestland called Suzdal, and elected head of state.
ruary 23rd. We have surpassed the and built a fort that would eventual-
The Ukrainian Hetmanate Republic
realm of diplomatic engagement into ly become Moscow. From this new
– one of Europe’s largest countries –
a hard discussion about how to stop base on the frontier of Kievan Rus’, he
continued to fend off Russian inva-
Russia’s advance. But if we want to launched raids on Kyiv and tried to sions for centuries until it fell to Rus-
know how to confront Vladimir Pu- shift the centre of power. In essence, sia’s Catherine II in 1775. And since
tin, we need to understand the back- he was the first Muscovite invader, set- that time, Ukrainians continued to
story: What are the psychology and ting off an 850-year trend. struggle to reassert their independence
motivation behind the Kremlin’s
A political reorganization occurred af- from Russia through peasant revolts, a
moves? How does Putin operate? And
ter a 240-year regional occupation by briefly-lived independent Ukrainian
why is it that this crisis matters glob-
the Golden Horde which sacked Kyiv in National Republic after First World
ally – beyond Ukraine, Europe, and
1240 and controlled Eastern Europe un- War, and a renewed Ukrainian Na-
the NATO-Russia face-off?
til the late-1400s. As the Mongol empire tional Republic in the latter half of
Why does Ukraine want to join NATO broke up, the Suzdal region – starting to the Second World War. The rest is re-
in the first place? It aspires to join the become known as “Muscovy” – estab- cent history: the Soviet Union’s disso-
world’s mightiest collective security lished its own state and by now evolved lution in 1991, Ukraine’s declaration
alliance precisely to protect itself from of independence that year, and a re-
Russia. Is this fear justified? Absolutely – newed hyper-nationalism under Vlad-
Given his motivations
not only by Putin’s latest full-scale in- imir Putin seeking to reverse what he
vasion, but as demonstrated by over of nationalism, has called the “the greatest geopoliti-
800 years of history. revisionist history, and a cal catastrophe of the 20th century.”
P
Today’s conflict can be traced back to toxic mix of revanchism and utin and his predecessors have
medieval Ukraine. We could start the irredentism, Putin’s coveted Ukraine not only for eco-
historical context with Prince Yuri ambitions cannot be nomic reasons, but for core rea-
Dolgorukyi “the Long-Armed” – a sons of national consciousness and his-
underestimated.
scion of the ruling Kievan dynasty– torical mythology. Without Ukraine,
who was banished to the outer north- Russian history starts in the 15th cen-
Policy13
President Mikhail Gorbachev and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney at 24 Sussex in May 1990. Under Mulroney, Canada became the first country to
recognize Ukraine’s independence as the Soviet Union crumbled in December 1991 --Toronto Star photo, courtesy Toronto Public Library
tury with the collapse of the Mongols This school of historical revisionism, immediately before authorizing his
and the emergence of Muscovy. By embodied by Putin, cannot accept the armed forces to invade. And let’s be
claiming Ukraine as its own – despite dissolution of the Soviet empire, which clear: existential passion is harder to
separate language and culture – Rus- it saw (ironically, given the discon- predict and mitigate than logical cal-
sia can lay claim to a more ancient me- nect between nationalism and Bolshe-
culations such as economic advantage.
dieval heritage that goes back to the vik theory) as the pinnacle of Russian
700s: the legacy of the Kievan em- greatness. Indeed, the lyrics of the So- Putin’s modus operandi is also entire-
pire, its rich ties to Byzantium, the in- viet anthem spoke of the USSR as a re- ly different than standard Western
troduction of Orthodox Christianity incarnation of “Great Rus’” or “Great diplomacy. Putin is oft referred to
to Eastern Europe, and a squarely Eu- Ruthenia” – i.e. medieval Ukraine. as a chess master. He will advance
ropean identity. Seven hundred years a pawn on the board (say, like Nord-
Given his motivations of nationalism,
of history are added, as is a legitimacy
revisionist history, and a toxic mix of Stream 2) and then leave it alone for
to the later mythology of the Russian
revanchism and irredentism, Putin’s seven years (say, until Angela Merkel
Orthodox Church as inheritor of the
ambitions cannot be underestimated. is gone), all the while keeping that
sacred role of “protector of the faith”
He laid bare his irrational zeal during pawn in his peripheral vision as other
– the “Third Rome” left standing after
the emphatic rant that evoked Nikita
the demise of the Roman Empire, the pieces move around the board, wait-
Khruschev’s “we will bury you” speech
sacking of Constantinople a thousand ing for it to become optimally useful.
years later, and the transfer of the title
Caesar (“Czar” in Russian) to Moscow. Putin may not follow An ex-KGB chief with a blackbelt in
But this only works by holding onto
the Chinese tradition Judo, Putin has a lifelong training in
patience, assessment, and identify-
Ukraine – 700 years of dots which of thinking in centuries, but
ing vulnerability – then striking at the
need to be connected to make the my- he does think in decades
right time. Even when matched with a
thology work. The psychology is not while the West thinks in bigger foe, he knows he can fell giants
dissimilar to the nouveau riche trying
to either buy, marry into, or swindle
quarters – or, at most, with patience, discipline, and throw-
an aristocratic title to solidify status four-year election cycles. ing all his force in precisely the right
through appropriated heritage. place at precisely the right time.
March—April 202214
A
s demonstrated with Crimea,
he will endure medium-term
Our leaders are still announcing sanctions in
pain to advance an empire-re- batches of dozens of oligarchs and government
storing legacy. Grab what you want, officials, rather than system-wide moves that could
hang on, batten the hatches until you paralyze the Russian economy and foment serious
ride out the storm. Restoring past glo-
discontent from within.
ries is worth years of sanctions, when
you know your resolve is stronger than
your foe’s. Putin knows attention spans
in the West tend to be short-lived, and
that Western governments change ble deterrence, and have offered lethal not only the potential destruction of
(sometimes with help from his own in- aid ranging from artillery to sniper ri- Ukraine and the destabilization of Eu-
fo-war campaigns). He knows practical fles and ammunition. But placing bets rope; it would also send a signal to fu-
considerations such as trade and natu- on Russian Roulette, the combined in- ture non-proliferation candidates (Iran?
ral gas supply eventually erode Western ternational response does not quite North Korea?) that international securi-
countries’ resolve to uphold sanctions. feel sufficiently united and resolute. ty assurances in exchange for disarma-
Thus he invaded Georgia and Moldo- Our leaders are still announcing sanc- ment won’t be respected. Buyer beware:
va. Thus he brought Chechnya to heel. tions in batches of dozens of oligarchs you can only rely on yourself, and the
And thus he seized both Crimea and and government officials, rather than best way to do so is to arm yourself to
part of Donbas from Ukraine. Putin system-wide moves that could paralyze the teeth. This not just a Ukrainian af-
may not follow the Chinese tradition the Russian economy and foment se- fair that can be written off by appeasers
of thinking in centuries, but he does rious discontent from within. True de- or cynics as “not our problem”. It is a
think in decades while the West thinks terrence with Putin requires Iran-level globally-impacting crisis whose conclu-
in quarters – or, at most, four-year elec- sanctions and ostracism, so the ruling sions will reverberate well beyond East-
tion cycles. And based on his experi- class can no longer access or visit its as- ern Europe. It will bear a heavy cost in
ence with Western response, he calcu- sets abroad, apparatchiks’ kids can no blood and treasure. Just how big a cost
lated that he can invade Ukraine and longer attend Western universities, and is up to us in how we respond.
watch Western govenrnments chase their commercial empires face trade The Kremlin’s actions are those of
each others’ tails in discord – partic- blockades at the border after also find- post-imperial atavism and insecurity.
ularly having already built a sanction ing their credit cards no longer working But they are very dangerous, and they
offset in China to soften any new sanc- on international e-commerce networks. are crimes of passion. NATO must un-
tions blow, with its hungry economy derstand them for what they are, un-
The Americans and British have a spe-
ready to consume any natural gas Ger- derstand what is motivating them, and
cial role in this crisis. We can debate all
many decides to turn off. understand the psychology of the per-
we want about whether this is “NATO’s
Facing this kind of aggressor, three fight” or not, and the degree to which petrators. They also need to fully grasp
things matter: unity, resolve, and cred- we should get involved in this war. But the broader implications of failure to
ibility. Anything short is seen by the if the moral obligation isn’t compelling stop Russia or live up to real security
Judo master as weakness waiting to be enough – stepping in to protect a France- commitments that have been made.
exploited. There can be no public dis- sized European country from being beat- Hanging in the balance may be the
sent between allies; the threatened re- en about by an imperialist aggressor – competition between two worldviews: a
course must be very painful (more there is a wider global threat to inaction. liberal-democratic and rules-based inter-
W
than after Crimea) and there can be no national order that upholds sovereignty
hen the Soviet Union dis-
bluffs like Obama’s “red line” in Syria. and democracy, or an ascendency of a
solved in 1991, Ukraine
Russo-Chinese autocratic world where
Where is the West? Until now, we became a nuclear power
great powers invade and partition at
maybe get a C+. Germany only reluc- overnight, setting off years of non-pro-
will, and where might is right.
tantly threatened to freeze the Nord- liferation talks. Through the Budapest
Stream 2 pipeline, amid a reliance on Memorandum of 1994, Ukraine gave Contributing writer Yaroslav Baran is na-
Russian natural gas Germany itself has up the world’s third-largest nuclear ar- tional Strategic Communications Prac-
fostered. France spent months speak- senal in exchange for security guaran- tice Lead with Earnscliffe Strategies. He
ing of reasonable negotiated com- tees from Russia, the US and UK. While has led numerous democratic and capac-
promise in tones ominously reminis- Russia’s annexation of Crimea was a ity-building projects in Ukraine, includ-
cent of the 1938 Munich Conference, blatant violation of the Budapest Mem- ing election observation missions and
and clearly out of touch with the real orandum, it could also be argued that training for civil society and parliamen-
Vladimir Putin. The UK, Estonia, Lith- insufficient response to Crimea is also tary groups. He is also past president of
uania, Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic a failure by the US and UK to live up the Ukrainian Canadian Congress in Ot-
and the US – and now also Canada — to their obligations under it. And fail- tawa, and serves on the executive of the
do recognize the importance of credi- ing to defend Ukraine now would mean Canada Ukraine Foundation.
Policy15
Absurdity, Dear Boy, Absurdity:
Presidential Leadership
in a New Kind of Turmoil
The internet has changed how political wars are fought by ship in Turbulent Times, the current pres-
ident of the United States is a good man
extending the disruptive capabilities of technology and tactics governing in bad times. Not just geo-
previously reserved for intelligence operations to broader political conflict, not just a pandemic,
events. The resulting epidemic of propaganda, performative or economic uncertainty or other cata-
clysms, but a moment in history when
lunacy and means-to-an-end public manipulation has any and all events can be amplified, dis-
redefined crisis management by redefining crisis. As torted, leveraged and politicized to gen-
longtime Washington columnist Lisa Van Dusen writes, erate mayhem and undermine the sta-
tus quo balance of power.
that challenge has defined Joe Biden’s presidency.
T
he famous Harold MacMillan re-
sponse to what constitutes the
Lisa Van Dusen ruptive volatility, fugitive tranquility. greatest leadership challenge —
The previously imponderable assault on
I
“Events, dear boy, events” — has be-
n her excellent 2018 study of pres- our cognitive assonance by horrifying come terribly ironic based on the an-
idents under pressure, Leadership presidencies, ruthless pandemics, trea- ti-reality reality that events are not what
in Turbulent Times, historian Do- sonous chaos actors and commodified they used to be. We are now more than
ris Kearns Goodwin imparts a to-do list thuggery has been attributed to more 20 years into a century that has seen a
gleaned from the similarities in approach metaphysical vandalism than were the
shift from analog, organic partisan war-
of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roos- crop circles of the 1990s before scien-
fare and geopolitical competition to
evelt, Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon tists concluded that their confound-
technologically enabled narrative war-
Johnson to governing in times of crisis. ing appearance in Gloucestershire corn
fare in which practices previously the
“Anticipate contending viewpoints,” fields fell “within the range of the sort
purview of intelligence operations —
“Shield colleagues from blame,” “Rally of thing done in hoaxes.”
misinformation, misdirection, industri-
support around a strategic target” and The military manifestation of the global alized mendacity, propaganda posing
“Give stakeholders a chance to shape war on democracy and battle for an il- as journalism, psyops including decep-
measures from the start,” are the keys to liberal world order currently playing out tion- and spoiler operations — have
leading through turmoil, per the exam- kinetically in Ukraine — unjustified by been mobilized toward the borderless
ples of four titans of American history. any rational casus belli and accompanied operational goal of discrediting and de-
Those entirely sensible pro tips are in our by a cavalcade of lies from the Kremlin stroying democracy. That campaign has
current context what “Always look both — is just the tragic, violent version of a now segued into the first war in Europe
ways before crossing the street” would be form warfare the likes of which history since Slobodan Milosevic waged his
in a zombie apocalypse, which is less a hadn’t witnessed until our post-internet bloodbath across the former Yugoslavia
reflection on the wisdom of Doris Kearns era and that makes President Joe Biden’s through the 1990s.
Goodwin — an international treasure — turbulence the first of its kind.
The war on democracy is, by necessi-
than on the often ghoulish environment In his first State of the Union address on ty, also a war on reality because democ-
in which today’s leaders function. March 1st, delivered amid the waning racy is an inherently attractive option
There is a temptation these days to at- catastrophe of the COVID pandemic, to human beings based on its unpar-
tribute the trend in especially wicked, the ongoing problem of inflation and alleled promise of self-government,
intractable problems that has defined the most aggressive power grab against freedom, quality control, freedom, ac-
our political and policy realm during European democracy since WWII, countability, freedom and peace. It has
the post-Obama period to an unprece- Biden said, “When the history of this taken a global village of bad actors the
dented, disharmonious convergence of era is written, Putin’s war on Ukraine two decades since the internet changed
scary words depicting mysterious phe- will have left Russia weaker and the rest everything to make something so com-
nomena conspiring to baffle all the of the world stronger.” pellingly appealing that countless peo-
usual analytical metrics — radical un- Unlike his immediate (and some previ- ple have died for it seem dysfunctional
predictability, volatile disruption, dis- ous) predecessor not profiled in Leader- and dangerous. Leadership in turmoil
March—April 202216
is no longer just about managing
events, it’s about recognizing that tur-
moil itself is now a weapon.
W
hen geopolitical players be-
have in ways that defy all
the norms and reasonable
expectations related to un-corrupted
choice architecture — incentives and
disincentives, power dynamics, observ-
able self-interest and overt probability
calculations — it could be that they’re
operating within a context of motives,
intentions, pressures and affiliations
Joe Biden being sworn in as American president at the US Capitol on January 20, 2021. Biden
that’s more complex than the face-val- is governing amid a redefinition of crisis that has transformed the nature of leadership in turmoil,
ue one informing diplomacy. writes Lisa Van Dusen. --Wikipedia
When political players behave in ways vocate for democracy, Biden has served crisis”, “Trumpism”, “narrative warfare”
that flout all accepted notions of elect- as a piñata for those tactics in unprec- (my preferred term) and, in defence and
ability, reputation, common sense, edented levels of manufactured hostili- security terms, “hybrid warfare”. That
and — in some cases — sanity, they ty, intractability and obstruction. other great conflict quote — attributed
may be acting according to risk-ben- to everyone from lexicographer Samuel
efit calculations skewed by interests Biden’s presidency, since the first six
Johnson to Senator Hiram Johnson —
other than the ones to which they’re months of successful, back-to-normal
that the first casualty of war is truth, has
publicly accountable. governance ended with the approv-
also become ironic. For the first time in
al-tanking cocktail of inflation, Afghan-
When protests claiming to be peaceful history, truth isn’t just a casualty of war,
istan and Omicron, has felt and looked
involve the deployment of heavy ma- but a relentlessly marginalized, misrep-
like a daily siege that amounts to the re-
chinery to paralyze a G7 capital and resented and maligned target.
verse of the one his predecessor waged
the use of viral reprehensibility to ha- No president in history has had to gov-
against the dignity of the office he held,
rass its residents and disseminate a por- ern in such avoidably onerous political
the peace of mind of his fellow citizens
trayal of democracy as a dystopian cir- and policy battlefield conditions. When
and the credibility of the nation he rep-
cus, crisis management takes on whole Abraham Lincoln was faced with the
resented on the world stage.
new dimensions. When so-called pro- seemingly insurmountable task of end-
testers defy rational strategy for pub- Public opinion polls, which seem to
ing slavery and reconciling America in
lic engagement by enraging the public; have ceased reflecting remotely plau-
the wake of the war required to disen-
when they abrogate all standard media sible collective sentiment sometime
gage the country from systemic evil,
relations practices by attacking reporters after the seesaw of unsavouriness that
he was functioning in an information
and raiding homeless shelters, either the was the 2016 presidential campaign, environment that — with apologies to
protest in question has been infiltrated remain an asymmetrical power deter- Doris Kearns Goodwin for rounding off
by agents provocateurs or was never legit- minant. That surely must make them — was probably 20 percent lies and 80
imate in the first place. When disrup- the single element left miraculously percent truth, not the reverse that ap-
tion operations are funded through the un-hacked by an orgy of anti-democ- plies today. What we are living through
transfer of millions of dollars in anon- racy corruption capture that has trans- is not inexplicable, it’s just unprece-
ymous foreign money during a global formed every other source of power in dented. There’s a difference.
war on democracy, chances are peaceful the world’s flagship democracy from
the Republican Party to the media to This is not the Civil War, the First World
protest is not the point.
War, the Second World War or the Viet-
T
the Supreme Court, and every source
his operationalization of events nam War. Like Vladimir Putin’s invasion
of democratic legitimacy from elector-
— a trend in domination most of Ukraine, this turmoil is manufactured
al infrastructure to voting rights.
horrendously apparent during to rationalize a pre-ordained outcome,
the entirety of the Trump presidency, The resulting vortex of toxic absurdi- which is a whole new kind of war. And
which was clearly a symptom, not the ty creates a layer of manufactured non- one that redefines the meaning of lead-
cause, or we wouldn’t still be dealing sense between the president of the Unit- ership in turbulent times.
with this phenomenon — has created a ed States and the reality in which he
Lisa Van Dusen is associate editor of Policy
leadership context in which character, must govern. Over the past six years, Magazine. She was Washington columnist
judgment, temperament and wisdom that alternative, performative “reality” for the Ottawa Citizen and Sun Media,
are meant to be deluged into irrele- of viral set pieces, crackpot conspiracy international writer for Peter Jennings at
vance by narrative warfare and propa- theories and tactical intractability has ABC News, and an editor at AP National in
ganda. As the most powerful, vocal ad- been called “post-truth”, “manufactured New York and UPI in Washington.
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