KEY LEARNINGS IN MEAT IN THE ERA OF COVID-19
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Tracking the Dramatic Pivot of U.S. Consumer and Shopper Behavior KEY LEARNINGS IN MEAT IN THE ERA OF COVID-19 May 20, 2020 Chris DuBois, Senior Vice President, Protein Jonna Parker, Principal, Fresh Center of Excellence Pete Swanson, Senior Consultant, Fresh Center of Excellence
Today’s Agenda
Exploring how evolving market and consumer outlooks will impact current and likely future behavior
Changing Retail Evolving Impact on Deep Dive into The Road Ahead
Experience Behavior Meat Buying Claims
Sources:
• IRI Point of Sale Data, including Daily Chain POS Data
• IRI E-Market Insights®
• Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™ Panel and Weekly Consumer Panel Solutions
• IRI Weekly Pulse Surveys
• IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Fresh Model
• 210 Analytics Consumer Surveys and Marketplace Pictures
Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal and COVID-19 Dashboard for more reports and updates.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Insights and Strategic
Guidance for Better Decisions
IRI’s Online Resources Include Real-Time
Updates and Weekly Reports Which Track
the Impact of the Virus on CPG and Retail
The IRI COVID-19 Info Portal
Includes COVID-19 impact analyses and reports,
webinar replays, podcasts and the latest thought
leadership on supply chain, consumer behavior,
channel shifts for the U.S. and international
markets
The IRI COVID-19 Data Dashboard and
CPG Economic Indicators
Tracks the daily impact of COVID-19 via
the IRI CPG Demand Index™, IRI CPG
Supply Index™, IRI CPG Inflation
Tracker™ and data on top-selling and out-
of-stock categories and consumer
sentiment on social media
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
Measures Tightening Further, Creating Changed Trip and Traffic Patterns
Source: 210 Analytics
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Consumers Anticipate That COVID-19 Shopping Behaviors Will Become the
New Normal
Important Store Factors to Return to Normal Shopping – Very Important: Store Must Have This
“Thinking ahead to your shopping plans in the next month, how important are the below in
determining your level of comfort in returning to normal store shopping habits?”
Most critical
41% 49% 51% 56%
Nice to have
Limiting the Customers Store staff Hand sanitizer
23% 23% 25% 34% number of being required being required & wipes being
Least critical shoppers in to wear face to wear face available
Require Contact-less Self-checkout Presence of store masks in masks upon store
customers to credit card option (scan plexiglass store entry
11% 14%
bag their own option for items myself) dividers for
Mobile pay Customer groceries if payment cashiers
option (with temperature using a re-
smartphone) checks upon usable bag
store entry (so staff don't
have to touch
them)
Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/1-5/3 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
After an Initial Shift to More Stockpile-Oriented Items, Fresh Foods Are a Considerable
Buyer and Transaction Driver in the Last Few Weeks – A Trend Expected to Continue
Total U.S. All Outlets Fresh Foods Consumer Purchasing Dynamics
Trips per Buyer
% chg. vs. YA
Buyers
29% 26% Less trips to any store
% Chg. vs. YA 2%
in a week…
-5% 0%
-4%
-16% -4%
3.5 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6
Actuals
6% 4% 5% Avg Basket Size
4%
0% % chg. vs. YA
28% 32% 35% 33% 31%
and consistently 14% 16% 17%
-2%
-1%
-1%
bigger total store
baskets on each trip 03-15-20 03-22-20 03-29-20 04-05-20 04-12-20 04-19-20 04-26-20 05-03-20
110.1 107.2 102.0 104.5 103.6 104.0 105.9 106.8 $60.2 $60.5 $61.3 $68.7 $70.0 $71.2 $69.3 $69.8
Actuals
Actuals (M)
Source: IRI Panel 8 weeks ending May 3, 2020. All Outlets.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
The World is Reopening: COVID-19 Openings as of May 13, 2020
Non-Essential Approximate
Restricted Business Weeks in
Assembly Closure Quarantine Notes on Re-Openings or Lifted Restrictions
Italy Mar 9 Mar 12 10 Bars and restaurants will reopen June 1
Hair salons and shops begin to open while bars,
France Mar 13 Mar 14 9
restaurants and theatres remain closed
Germany Mar 22 Mar 16 8 By mid-June, Germany will ease border restrictions
Netherlands Mar 15 Mar 23 9 Primary and middle schools begin to reopen
On May 14, New Zealand moves to level allowing for
New Zealand Mar 19 Mar 23 8
restaurants and retail stores to open
Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a plan for when
UK Mar 23 Mar 23 8
schools and shops will open soon
Select states have begun to ease restrictions on
U.S. Mar 16 by state 9
businesses and allow for openings with capacity restraints
Partial reopening on May 11 with stores and restaurants
Spain by region March 14 9
opening with restrictions
Source: Literature Search
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Re-Opening Measures Have Dominated the U.S. National Conversation in the
Last Week with Varied and Staggered Plans From State-To-State
Source: NY Times published on 5/18/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 9
In April, Many Pandemic Epicenter States Also Saw Extremely High Meat Sales;
As States Re-Open in Varying Ways, Their Meat Sales Will Likely Have Varied Impact
Latest 4 weeks ending 5/3/20
TOTAL MEAT
Source: IRI Total US Multi-Outlet, Total Meat Department, data ending 5/3/20, states not shaded are not available as a multi-outlet projection
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10Consumers Increasingly Believe COVID-19 Will Linger for Months;
Economic Woes Are Predicted to Last More Than a Year
Expected Length of Coronavirus Health and Economic Crises
How Long Respondents Believe the
COVID-19 Health Crisis Will Last*
3/13-3/15 5/1-5/3
1 wk. - 3 mos. 66% 36%
4 - 12 mos. 32% 37%
Concerns About the Duration
of an Economic Recession
Increased This Week
53% believe it will be
more than 12
months before
the economy recovers
*Note: numbers do not = 100 due to rounding / Source: IRI Consumer Survey fielded among Primary Grocery Shoppers in the National Consumer Panel, March 13 – April 19, 2020.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11Consumers are Cooking More from Scratch vs. Pre-COVID-19; Most
Households Will Continue to Cook at Home as Stay-At-Home Orders Ease
c
35%
50% or Less
51-80%
40%
Creating more meals
from scratch 81-100%
73%
53%
Will continue to create
38%
meals from scratch 19%
more than I did before 22%
coronavirus.* 8%
Category
Percent of Meals1for Category
Percent of Meals2 for
All HH Members All HH Members
Prepared at Home Prepared at Home
before COVID-19 Currently
*Note: Those who said they are creating meals from scratch at home more due to coronavirus (477)
Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/1-5/3 among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12Although Shoppers Continued to be Focused on Convenience and Value,
Many are Choosing Stores Based on Social Distancing and Safety Protocols
Store Choice Drivers for Groceries and Household Essentials in Past Month
Which of the following describes how you’ve been choosing where to shop
for groceries and other household essentials during the past month?
Can get most things I want to buy in that one store 53%
Most conveniently located near my home 53%
Lowest prices or best deals 33%
Least crowded or limits customers who can enter 20%
Requires customers and staff to wear masks 18%
Offers self-checkout 17%
Special hours for seniors/those with health conditions 13%
Plexi-glass dividers in front of the cashier 11%
Online ordering with curbside pickup 10%
Contact-less credit card payment option 4%
Store is helping the community (donating food, etc) 4%
Mobile-pay option (pay through smartphone) 2%
Does not apply, only shopped online for home delivery in past month 4%
Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/1-5/3 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13For Fresh, Grocery and Club Gained Share from Mass and Specialty;
the Pandemic Favored Limited Trips from Trusted, Local Retailers
w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e w/e
3/8/20 3/15/20 3/22/20 3/29/20 4/5/20 4/12/20 4/19/20 4/26/20 5/3/20
Specialty
8.9% 7.0% 6.1% 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 6.1% 6.4% 6.3%
Club
10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 10.5% 10.4% 9.9% 11.3% 10.9% 11.6%
Supercenter
17.3% 15.9% 18.1% 16.9% 16.6% 16.1% 16.6% 16.2% 15.9%
Grocery
60.2% 64.2% 62.6% 63.5% 63.8% 64.3% 62.9% 62.7% 62.4%
Source: IRI Household Panel including fixed and random-weight, Data Ending 5/3/2020 – color coding vs prior week / Note: Supercenter = MassX And SupercenterX + Walmart
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Nonessential Workers Will Return to Working Outside the Home but Work-From-
Home Days Will Increase; There will be a Lag Before Kids Return to Daycare
Changes to Work Habits: When there are not any government stay-at-home mandates that impact you,
when will you do each of the following?
c
9% Will wait a month or more after the restrictions are lifted before doing this
Will wait a few extra weeks after the restrictions are lifted before doing this
19% 38% Go back to my usual way of doing this as soon as possible after restrictions are lifted
Have been doing this about the same amount as usual during the past month
39%
25%
33% of those employed plan to
work from home 3+ days per
week after restrictions are lifted,
24%
vs. 21% before COVID-19
34%
14%
Go to work at location outside home My young child/children will go to
daycare or I will have a childcare
provider come to my home
Base= the 37% of Total Respondents Who Base: the 7% of Total Respondents Who
Plan to Work at least 1 Day at a Location Have a Child Under Age 6 Typically in
other than Home and Expect to be Daycare or with Home Childcare
Employed after Restrictions are Lifted Provider n=85
Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/1-5/3 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15Retailer product limits dampen demand
Q. For items that were in-stock to buy, did you reduce the number of items you bought on any recent
shopping occasion due to a retailer limiting the amount per shopper for certain items?
% who responded: Yes, there was a purchase limit on certain items so I bought fewer than I wanted:
63%
60%
54%
46% c
Wave 2
Wave 3
Wave 4
Wave 5
N/A
Wave 1
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 March 20-22 March 27-20 April 3-5 April 10-12;
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16E-Commerce Gains Will Stick in a Post-
COVID-19 World; Consumers Increasingly
Buy Into Click and Collect
13% 14%
buying more using curbside
groceries online pick-up more
for home delivery often
After stay-at-home restrictions end
40% using curbside pickup
more often
50% plan to get more of their
groceries this way
Source: IRI Consumer Survey fielded among Primary Grocery Shoppers in the National Consumer Panel, March 13 – April 19, 2020.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17U.S. E-Commerce Sales Continued to Accelerate United
in the Second Four Weeks Since COVID-19 States
Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total E-Commerce In Store Online - Edible Only # COVID-19 Cases
Online Online - Nonedible Only
90% 770k
85%
80%
73%
70% 65%
68%
60% 56%
50%
52%
37%
40% 30%
33% 26% 39%
30%
32%
24%
20% 15%
10% 3%
0% 0% 0k 0k 34k
4 Weeks Ending 01-26-20 4 Weeks Ending 02-23-20 4 Weeks Ending 03-22-20 4 Weeks Ending 04-19-20
E-Comm %
16.2% 15.7% 14.7% 18.7%
share of total
Source: IRI eMarket Insights Model, based on 204 releasable eMarket Insights categories, In Store from Total MULO / Case count from Worldometer as of May 1, 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18For Meat, E-Commerce Growth has Been Considerable for Brick-and-Mortar Grocers’
Sites While Online Multicategory and Online Specialty Saw Holiday-Related Spikes
Dollar % Change vs. YA, Total Meat, E-commerce Top Channels
Source: IRI eMarket Insights data, period ending 4/19/20 for tracked Meat categories
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 20
All Generations Are Impacted by the Health and Economic Toll of COVID-19
But the Most Lasting Shifts Will Occur Among Millennials and Older Gen Z
BABY SILENT
GEN Z MILLENNIALS GEN X BOOMERS GENERATION
1996 – 2010 1977 – 1995 1965 – 1976 1946 – 1964 1945 and prior
(ages 10-24) (ages 25-43) (ages 44-55) (ages 56-74) (ages 75+)
Widespread Columbine Iranian Hostage Vietnam Great Depression
Terrorism: ISIS, Shootings and Crisis
Boston Marathon Special-Event Civil Rights WWII
Shootings Challenger Disaster Movement
Bombings Korean War
9/11 Collapse of JFK / MLK
Mass Shootings: The Cold War
Berlin Wall Assassinations
Sandy Hook,
Hurricane Katrina
Parkland, Orlando AIDS Epidemic
The Great Recession
The Great Recession The Great Recession
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21Millennials Are Among the Hardest Hit By the
Health and Financial Fallout of COVID-19
THEIR JOBS ARE AT RISK THEY’RE NOT TAKING THEY’RE ALSO
THIS LIGHTLY PARENTS
45% of 18-29 year-olds and
31% of 31-38 year-olds have 55% are extremely Two-thirds of Millennials in
experienced work reductions concerned about peak child bearing years (30-
due to the coronavirus the coronavirus 38 year-olds) have children
50%
45% 43%
35%
31%
25%
Working Less / Furloughed / Lost Job HH Income at Risk Because of Coronavirus
Because of Coronavirus
Total Younger Millennials Older Millennials
ages 18-29 ages 30-38
Source: IRI Survey fielded 5/1-5/3 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers / 1 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention / 2 SOURCE: www.census.gov
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22Already Financially Vulnerable,
Millennials Expect the Economic Crisis
to Last Longer Than the Health Crisis
~40%
of Millennials have
had their work Expected Duration Expected Duration
hours reduced or of Health Crisis of Economic Crisis
lost their jobs as a
34%
result of the COVID- 42% 36%
19 crisis to date 73% 74% 67%
21% 23%
20%
$497.6B 26%
29% 25%
13% 10%
13%
student loan debt 10% 13% 13% 10%
8% 15%
8% 5%
among 15.1MM 3%
borrowers aged 25-341 Total Younger Older Total Younger Older
Millennials Millennials Millennials Millennials
7+ Months 4-6 Months 2-3 Months 1 Month or Less
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 23Millennial Households Saw the Biggest
Increase in Meat-Department Buying
Highest Meat Dept. Dollars Per Buyer
Growth and Their Top Growth Proteins / Cuts
Demographics with Highest Growth
+50% Spending Proteins / Cuts
Under 35, Single, Beef Steak, Chicken c
No Kids, City Thighs, Fresh Pork
Under 35, w/ Kids, Chicken Wings, Beef
Mid to Low Income, City Roast, Sausage,
Under 35, w/ Kids, Beef Steak,
Upper Income, City Chicken Legs, Ham
Ages 45-64 with Kids, Chicken Wings,
Mid to Low Income Cubed Beef, Pork Ribs
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight, Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20; Photo credit: 210 Analytics
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 24Moving Forward – Address the Varying
Needs of the Millennial Generation
Build Confidence
Use technology and positive reinforcement to create more personalized
connections to help Millennials through what they don’t know or what they
may want to try, be it budget stretching or meal prep.
Boost Safety and Health
Communicate commitments to safety, whether in-store or on-pack.
Showcase strategies that support wellness goals.
Support the You-Only-Live-Once Connection
Demonstrate how your products or shopping experiences move life ‘beyond the
ordinary’ and into something special. Use social media and/or contests to celebrate.
Create Value Through Ease
From intuitive online grocery shopping and apps, to quick meal
planning ideas, the Millennial value equation is more than low prices.
Reframe Price
Help these shoppers understand cost per meal, or ways to extend/expand product uses.
Bring the Out-of-Home Experience In-Home
Millennials are not in a hurry to resume out-of-home activities; help them
DIY varying aspects of their lives, including meal, cocktail and hair color kits.
Combat Kid Boredom
Two thirds of 30-38 year-olds have kids under 18. Become a trusted source
for fun and learning and facilitate kid involvement in meal planning and prep.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 25© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 26
After an Unprecedented Mid-March Peak in Pandemic Buying, Sales Remain
Elevated Week Over Week, With Other Food Outpacing Fresh Growth
Dollar % Chg. vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // Total Store Including Both Fixed and Random-Weight
52 weeks ending Feb 2020 benchmarks
F&B ex Fresh: +1.7%
78.7% 80.6%
Fresh Foods: +1.3%
Nonedibles: +1.4%
62.6%
45.9%
46.8%
44.3% 25.0% 29.8% 30.1% 31.4%
25.4%
20.4% 18.3% 23.1%
16.5%
12.6% 22.3%
3.9% 9.1% 10.5% 8.8%
5.4%
3.1% 4.6% 3.5% 1.5% 1.0%
-1.0%
0.3% -0.4%
03-01-20 03-08-20 03-15-20 03-22-20 03-29-20 04-05-20 04-12-20 04-19-20 04-26-20 05-03-20
F&B ex Fresh Fresh Foods Non Edibles
Source: IRI TSV+ Perimeter Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 27Wider View on Fresh Foods Performance – Meat was Consistently King
Total Store with Fresh Total Edibles Excl. Fresh Fresh Perimeter Produce Department
3/1/2020 1.9% 3/1/2020 2.9% 3/1/2020 -0.7% 3/1/2020 0.4%
3/8/2020 10.6% 3/8/2020 8.9% 3/8/2020 3.4% 3/8/2020 3.8%
3/15/2020 62.5% 3/15/2020 78.2% 3/15/2020 44.9% 3/15/2020 34.5%
3/22/2020 58.2% 3/22/2020 80.2% 3/22/2020 45.1% 3/22/2020 29.7%
3/29/2020 14.3% 3/29/2020 24.7% 3/29/2020 11.8% 3/29/2020 8.1%
4/5/2020 16.9% 4/5/2020 29.4% 4/5/2020 15.8% 4/5/2020 14.2%
4/12/2020 16.4% 4/12/2020 29.5% 4/12/2020 17.6% 4/12/2020 16.3%
17.20
5/3/2020 18.30% 5/3/2020 25.40% 5/3/2020 18.30% 5/3/2020
%
Meat Department Total Bakery Total Seafood Deli Department
3/1/2020 -1.4% 3/1/2020 3/1/2020 19.2% 3/1/2020 -1.1%
-4.2%
3/8/2020 7.3% 3/8/2020 3/8/2020 2.1% 3/8/2020 1.0%
2.4%
3/15/2020 76.7%
3/15/2020 78.8% 3/15/2020 76.1% 3/15/2020 15.9%
3/22/2020 91.3% 3/22/2020 3/22/2020 81.3% 3/22/2020
49.2%
3/29/2020 37.2% 3/29/2020 3/29/2020 21.9% 3/29/2020
6.9%
4/5/2020 41.2% 4/5/2020 4/5/2020 22.2% 4/5/2020 -20.1%
9.3%
4/12/2020 42.9% 4/12/2020 4/12/2020 26.5% 4/12/2020 -22.5%
9.7%
5/3/2020 52% 5/3/2020 5/3/2020 38.50% 5/3/2020 -27.0%
25%
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 28Meat Dollar Sales Continue to Outpace Volume Sales, With Gap Growing;
Price per Volume Is up 13% versus Year Ago in the Last 4 Weeks
Consumer fear of potential product shortages fueled extreme demand, even in light of implied price pressure
Fresh Meat Sales by Week During COVID-19 Crisis
91.8%
80.3% 78.0%
71.6% 51.3%
36.8% 43.6% 49.7%
41.4%
28.5% 34.5% 36.4% 17.1% 37.2%
34.8%
8.1%
-0.9% 5.2% 2.7%
-3.9%
3.1.20 3.8.20 3.15.20 3.22.20 3.29.20 4.5.20 4.12.20 4.19.20 4.26.20 5.3.20
Meat Dollar Sales Meat Volume Sales
Source: IRI MULO POS data for periods indicated – Fixed and Random Weight items integrated
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 29As Consumers Buy More Meat for At-Home Occasions, Key
Consumer Purchase Metrics Show Considerable Growth vs. 2019
The Meat Department Has Benefitted From Growth
On Sales, Buyers, Trips and Dollars / Trip
Latest 4 Weeks Ending 5/3/2020 vs. YA
58.4
36.4
18.3 19.4 17.9
13.5
11.4
2.6
Dollar Sales % Buyers % Change vs. Product Trips per Dollars per Trip %
Change vs. YA YA Buyer % Change vs. Change vs. YA
YA
All Trip Missions Pantry Stocking
Source: IRI MULO panel, All Outlets Combined – Fixed and Random Weight items integrated
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30Continued Short-Term Stress as Meat Wholesale Markets Remain Volatile
U.S. Wholesale Beef and
Pork Pricing (USDA)
• Wholesale beef and pork
prices doubled in April.
• Recent pork production is
down ~24% from 2019
levels, while beef is 32%
below 2019 volumes.
• However, stress is short-
term and pork should
rebound to 2019 levels;
beef will improve but remain
down 5% from 2019.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE!
Source: Bloomberg / USDA
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31The Supply Chain Stress Can Vary by Day and by Protein
Source: 210 Analytics
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32IRI Supply Index Illustrates Meat Supply Chain Stress Impacting
U.S. In-Stock Positions
% In-Stock
• Daily meat in-stock levels are down ~18ppts from pre-COVID-19 levels.
• Consumers are encountering sparse inventory levels and out-of-stocks on key items.
• A growing number of retailers are enforcing purchase limits on total number of meat packages.
• A combination of constrained supply and stock-up buying continues to stress the meat system.
• President Trump’s Executive Order on April 29 cites Defense Production Act to keep plants operating.
• Starting May 1, processing plants that were closed to address COVID-19 outbreaks are reopening.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE
Source: IRI CPG Supply Index
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33Average Items Per Store Selling is Down – 35 Items vs. a Year Ago for Total Meat
Average Items per Store Selling Chg. vs. YA
11
-9 -10
-25
-29
-34 -35
-32 -37
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measure Average Items per Store Selling (note: item must sell to be counted- not a measure of impressions on shelf) of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34Average Price Per Pound for Total Meat Has Increased to $0.35 in the Latest
WE 5-3-2020; Prior to the Crisis it was $3.40, But is Now $3.81 in the Latest Week
Average Price per Pound Chg. vs. YA – Total Meat
$0.46
$0.38
$0.35
$0.27
$0.22
$0.18 $0.18 $0.18
$0.10
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Average Price Per Pound (Dollars divided by Volume) Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 35Every Region is Experiencing High Meat Sales Growth, Greatest in South Central
Fresh Meat | % Change Dollars vs. Year Ago | IRI Regions | 52 w/e 2/23/20 and 9 Weeks Ending 5-3-20
WEST PLAINS
Total U.S. MULO 2.1% | 42.7% 0.5% | 42.8%
GREAT LAKES
+1.4% 52 Weeks 2/23/20 0.8% | 45.8%
+45.8% 9 Weeks 5/3/20 NORTH EAST
0.3% | 44.0%
MID SOUTH
1.4% | 47.6%
CALIFORNIA
1.0% | 46.2%
SOUTH EAST
2.2% | 46.8%
SOUTH CENTRAL
2.3% | 48.8%
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Dollar Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 36Meat Has Had an Extremely Strong Presence in Social Media –
3.6 Million Mention Trip as Many as Any Other Food Department
Mentions of Meat and Related Terms Are Up 66% vs. the Pre-COVID-19 Period
25% of Meat Social Media Discussions Are Negative – Up From 20% Before the Pandemic
c
Supply Continues to Dominate the Conversation –
Sample of Posts from May 12-14, 2020
Source: IRI Social Pulse powered by Infegy / Jan 1 – 5/14/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 37Meat Sales
Fresh Meat is $45.2B
in All Outlets
Processed Rfg Meat is $14.3B
+1.4% +2.0% $
+0.6% lb
-1.1% $
$ Growth 52 w/e 2-23-20 -3.2% lb
Pre-Pandemic
-0.1% +1.7% $
+1.0% lb
-0.4% $
-0.8% lb
lbs Growth 52 w/e 2-23-20
Pre-Pandemic
Processed Rfg Meat +1.5% $ / -0.8% lbs
Source: IRI Market Advantage Total Store View + Perimeter, Total Meat, 52 ending 2/23/2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 38Meat Sales Since Pandemic Declared:
in All Outlets Fresh Meat is $12.1B
+45%
Processed Rfg Meat is $4.0B
+48% $ +52% $
$ Growth Latest +37% lb +44% lb
10 w/e 5/10/20
+35% +33% $
+29% lb
+49% $
+37% lb
lbs Growth Latest
10 w/e 5/10/20
Processed Rfg Meat +49% $ / +38% lbs
Source: IRI Market Advantage Total Store View + Perimeter, Total Meat, 10 wks ending 5/10/2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 39Overall the Various Meat Sources Have Trended Similarly Throughout the
Latest 9 Weeks
$ % Chg vs. YA Weekly Trend During Pandemic / Total U.S. MULO Data Ending 5-3-2020
59.3%
59.1%
53.1%
32.5%
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020
Total Meat Beef Chicken Pork Turkey
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Dollar Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20; Lamb, Veal and Exotics not show
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 40Dollar Sales for Meat Were Up Only Slightly Prior to the Pandemic, But is a Leading
Area of Store Growth During COVID-19 as All Meat Types See High Sales Change
Dollar Sales Growth / Comparison Pre and During Pandemic / Total U.S. MULO Ending 5-3-20
70.9%
50.7% 51.6%
45.8% 48.0%
34.2%
18.2% 16.6%
1.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.2%
-0.4% -1.1% -0.7%
-9.8%
Total Meat Beef Chicken Pork Turkey Lamb Veal Exotic
52 w/e Prior Latest 9 weeks
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Dollar Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 41After Years of Flat Pounds Growth, the COVID-19 Pandemic Has Moved
a Considerable Amount More Volume Consistently Across Proteins
Volume (in Pounds) Sales Growth / Comparison Pre and During Pandemic / Total U.S. MULO Ending 5-3-20
66.2%
43.9%
37.1% 38.7%
35.3%
29.8%
12.3%
9.4%
0.6% 1.0% 1.0%
-0.1% -0.8% -2.5%
-3.2%
-9.6%
Total Meat Beef Chicken Pork Turkey Lamb Veal Exotic
52 w/e Prior Latest 9 weeks
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Volume (lbs) Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42Meat Sales Surged Due to Consumers Buying More During the Trip
~60% of Meat’s Multi-Billion Year Over Year Gain is Due to
Increased Spend, Not Frequency or Reach Expansion
CUTS WITH HIGHEST GROWTH ACROSS ALL OUTLETS
Whole Bird Turkey Ground Beef Chicken Wings Cubed Beef Pork Ribs
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight, Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43COVID-19 Pandemic Expanded Consumers’ Horizons on What Meat to Buy
14% More Protein / Cuts Per Buyer During the 4 Weeks Ending April 19 Than the Same Period Last Year
2X Ground Beef Had 2X More Buyer
Increase Than Any Other Cut
Many Meat Cuts that Saw the High Increased Household Penetration
Fresh Pork – All Cuts, Beef Steak, Chicken Breasts, Chicken Wings, Chicken Thighs
c
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight, Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 44With Deeper Engagement in Meat, Many Cuts Split the Consumer’s Wallet
No One Protein or Cut Had More Than 1/3 of All Dollars Spent by Their Buyers in Fresh Meat
32% 27% 25% 23%
Ground Beef Lamb Chicken Breasts Whole Bird Turkey
Beef Steak Ham Beef Roast
31% 25% 25%
Note: Ham and Lamb saw high share of wallet in this period in both years due to Easter falling within these 4 weeks
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight Measure: Share of Buyer’s Wallet (among product buyers), Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 45Whole Bird Turkey Was an Example of a Slow-Cooking /
Roasted Meat Item That Saw a Demand Surge During
the Pandemic – With New and Surprising Buyers
Growth Across Multiple Purchase Metrics – 4 WE 4.19.20 vs. YA
− +60% Dollar Sales
− +30% More Buyers
− +13% Spent in Dollars Spent per Unit
Households Driving Whole Bird Turkey Sales Growth During COVID-19
− Female HOH Fill Time Employed +103%
− Top 25 Largest Markets +83%
− Lower Income +81%
− Gen X (Born 1965-1980)
− 2 Person HHs
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight, Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 46Ground Beef Lead Sales Growth Rates at the Beginning of the Pandemic Period,
But in the Latest 3 Weeks Chicken Has Experienced Stronger Growth
$ % Chg. vs. YA Weekly Trend During Pandemic / Fresh Meat Grinds / Total U.S. MULO WE 5-3-20
53.9%
51.0%
46.2%
39.3%
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020
Ground Beef Ground Chicken Ground Pork Ground Turkey
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Dollar Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20; all other grinds not show
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 47Ground Has Been Doing Extremely Well as a Versatile, Easy-To-Prepare Cut;
Smaller Proteins Stepped in When Ground Beef Started Running Low
Over the week ending May 3 versus the comparable week in 2019:
+51% +39% +54% +39%
GROUND GROUND GROUND GROUND
BEEF TURKEY CHICKEN PORK
Source: IRI, Total US, MULO, 1 week % growth versus year ago
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 48Ground Meat Has Experienced Very Strong Growth in Both Dollars and Volume;
Yet, Higher Price Per Pound With Dollar Trend Outpacing Especially in Turkey Grind
Dollar Sales Growth for Ground Meat
45.8% 48.0% 50.7%
34.2%
1.4% 2.0% 1.7%
-0.4%
Ground Beef Ground Chicken Ground Pork Ground Turkey
52 w/e Prior Latest 9 weeks
Volume Sales Growth for Ground Meat
39.4% 41.9%
32.8% 36.4%
7.7%
0.9%
-2.8% -0.5%
Ground Beef Ground Chicken Ground Pork Ground Turkey
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Volume (lbs) Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 49Ground Beef’s Explosive 53% Dollar
Growth Across All Outlets Came from an
Increase in Every Shopper Behavior Metric
Ground Beef is Truly Having a Material Impact
in American Households During COVID-19
49% of U.S. households bought ground beef in the 4
WE 4.19, 7 ppts. more than the prior year
32% of additional dollars (more than $1B) was from
buyers who did not buy during the prior year
$5 The average household spent $5 more on
ground beef than the prior year, +30%
23% 23% of buyers bought 2+ times in the 4-week
period – 6% more than prior year
Source: IRI Panel Data including both fixed and random-weight, Total US All Outlets, 4 weeks ending 4-19-20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 50Ham Sales Growth Drastically Outperformed Other Processed Meat Initially Driven by
Easter, Recently Surged as Assortment Diminishes, Consumers Seek Comfort, Value
$ % Chg. vs. YA Weekly Trend During Pandemic / Processed Meat Categories /
Total U.S. MULO WE 5-3-2020
86.7%
58.5%
49.7%
36.0%
3/8/2020 3/15/2020 3/22/2020 3/29/2020 4/5/2020 4/12/2020 4/19/2020 4/26/2020 5/3/2020
Smoked Ham/Pork Sausage Bacon Frankfurters
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Dollar Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20; Refrigerated Lunchmeats not show
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 51Frankfurters Led for Dollar Sales Growth of Processed Meats at +54% In Latest 9
Weeks; Higher Average Price Paid Was Large Contributor as Volume Increased Less
Dollar Sales Growth for Processed Meats
51.5% 51.6% 53.7%
39.9%
2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
-1.1%
Smoked Ham/Pork Sausage Bacon Frankfurters
Volume Sales Growth for Processed Meats
50.4%
43.8% 39.6%
17.3%
1.2%
-0.2% -0.6%
-6.4%
Smoked Ham/Pork Sausage Bacon Frankfurters
Source: IRI POS, Total U.S. MULO; Measures: Volume (lbs) Sales % Change vs YA as of 5/3/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 52Plant-Based Growth Was Strong Prior to the Pandemic; Similar to Traditional Meat,
Meat Alternatives Have Experienced Immense Weekly Growth During the Pandemic
Fresh Meat Alternatives Total U.S. MULO Ending 5-3-20
87.6%
76.8%
26.8%
21.5%
$ % Chg vs YA Vol $ Chg vs YA
52 w/e Prior Latest 9 weeks
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 53Meat Alternatives Posted Sales Explosions During the Initial Stock-Up Weeks, But
Sales Have Trended Only Slightly Above Pre-Pandemic and Share Remains 1%
Fresh (Non-Frozen) Meat Alternative Sales and Share of Total Meat
Fresh (non-frozen) meat alternatives dollars Share meat alternatives vs. total (meat + alternatives)
$35,000,000 1.50% 1.60%
1.51%
1.42% 1.43%
$30,000,000 1.32% 1.34% 1.40%
1.27% 1.30% 1.27%
1.23%
1.20%
$25,000,000
1.18%
1.00%
$20,000,000
0.80%
$15,000,000
0.60%
$10,000,000
0.40%
$5,000,000 0.20%
$0 0.00%
3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 5/3 5/10
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 54Meat Alternatives Saw Increased Social Media Mentions Earlier in the Year
and the Initial Pandemic Buying Period, But Are Much, Much Lower Than Meat
Meat Alternative Terms Have 99% Less Social Media Discussion Than Meat
While Meat is Up 61% During COVID-19; Meat Alternatives Are Only
c
Seeing a 19% Increase in Social Chatter Since Before The Pandemic
Mentions Are Mixed – Availability a Common Theme –
Sample of Posts From May 12-14, 2020
Source: IRI Social Pulse powered by Infegy / Jan 1 – 5/14/20
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 55© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 56
Pre-Pandemic Value-Added Products Continued to Drive Growth for the Meat
Department; Opportunity in Poultry as Growth and Share Decline
Total Meat Department Value-Add Pre-Pandemic 52 weeks ending 2/23/20 :
Dollar Growth +2.4% Dollar Share 9.5 % of sales (9.3 share prior year)
VA Protein Dollar Growth vs Year Ago L52 weeks ending 2/23/20
X.X = Share Points to Total Protein
Beef 2.9%
8.9
-0.5% Chicken
8.0
Pork 6.3%
16.1
Turkey
-4.8% 10.4
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, Data Ending 2/232020 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 57Value-Added Meat Products’ Growth During Pandemic Is Unprecedented;
Share to Total Protein Has Actually Declined Across All Proteins From Year Prior
Total Meat Department Value-Add Latest 10 weeks:
Dollar Growth 26.5% Dollar Share 10.1 % of sales (10 weeks a year ago: 11.1%)
VA Protein Dollar Growth – Pandemic Time Period vs Year Ago
X.X = Share Points to Total Protein
Beef
10.6 25.4%
Chicken 16.4%
7.2
Pork 36.7%
15.8
Turkey 44.0%
12.0
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, Data Ending 5/102020 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 58NAE Continues Growth
No Antibiotics Ever
Across All Major
$ % Growth and $ Share
Proteins
52 Wk (Pre)
35% Growth
+0.6% +3.7% +0.2% +7.8%
Pandemic
Growth
+62% +32% +49% +66%
of consumers said (Pre)
SHARE
4.1 37.2 4.1 11.7
that free of antibiotics
is important when Pandemic
fresh food shopping SHARE
4.6 36.6 4.1 14.3
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, (Pre)Data Ending 2/23/2020 and (Pandemic) Data Ending 4/19/20 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight Source: 2019 IRI Fresh Survey
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 59Southeast, California Experienced Strong Growth Pre-Pandemic; NAE Has Gained
Share Point in Northeast Since Pandemic
Fresh Meat – NO ANTIBIOTICS EVER | % Change Dollars vs. Year Ago | IRI Regions
WEST PLAINS
Total U.S. MULO 2.9% | 36.0% -3.2% | 33.8%
GREAT LAKES
+3.2% 52 wks (Pre) -0.5% | 32.7%
+39% Pandemic NORTHEAST
2.3% | 49.5%
Share Points - NAE
(Pre) Pandemic Chg
TOTAL U.S. 13.2% 13.1% -0.1
CALIFORNIA 9.4% 9.4% 0.0
MIDSOUTH GREAT LAKES 14.2% 13.5% -0.6
1.7% | 36.3% MIDSOUTH 14.2% 14.1% -0.1
NORTHEAST 17.1% 18.0% 1.0
PLAINS 11.0% 10.5% -0.4
CALIFORNIA SOUTH CENTRAL 10.5% 9.9% -0.6
9.5% | 36.2% SOUTHEAST 15.4% 14.9% -0.5
WEST 9.2% 9.2% 0.0
SOUTHEAST
10.5% | 38.7%
SOUTH CENTRAL
-0.4% | 31.6%
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, (Pre)Data Ending 2/23/2020 and (Pandemic) Data Ending 4/19/20 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 60Organic Growth is Strong
Organic Claims
in Beef and Turkey
$ % Growth and $ Share
52 Wk (Pre)
20% Growth
+9.8% +4.6% -25% +8.9%
Pandemic
Growth
+57% +26% -9.7% +39%
of consumers said (Pre)
SHARE
1.3 5.3 0.1 2.1
that organic is important
when fresh food shopping Pandemic
SHARE
1.4 5.2 0.1 2.2
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, (Pre)Data Ending 2/23/2020 and (Pandemic) Data Ending 4/19/20 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight Source: 2019 IRI Fresh Survey
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 61Organic Has Grown Across All Regions Pre and Throughout Pandemic Time Period;
Nearly 60% of All Organic Meat Sales Derive from Northeast, California and Midsouth
Fresh Meat - ORGANIC | % Change Dollars vs Year Ago | IRI Regions
WEST PLAINS
Total U.S. MULO 7.3% | 32.1% 0.9% | 33.0%
GREAT LAKES
+5.7% 52 wks (Pre) 3.2% | 30.0%
+35.6% Pandemic NORTHEAST
3.9% | 28.5%
Share Points - Organic
(Pre) Pandemic Chg
TOTAL U.S. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0
CALIFORNIA 3.6% 3.6% 0.0
MIDSOUTH GREAT LAKES 1.5% 1.5% 0.0
8.4% | 43.3% MIDSOUTH 2.2% 2.3% 0.1
NORTHEAST 3.2% 3.2% 0.0
PLAINS 1.1% 1.1% 0.0
CALIFORNIA SOUTH CENTRAL 1.2% 1.2% 0.0
6.6% | 38.5% SOUTHEAST 1.3% 1.4% 0.1
WEST 2.5% 2.4% -0.1
SOUTHEAST
6.4% | 45.6%
SOUTH CENTRAL
8.2% | 43.8%
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, (Pre)Data Ending 2/23/2020 and (Pandemic) Data Ending 4/19/20 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 62Grass-Fed Beef Growth Has Slowed Prior to Pandemic Signifying Opportunity
to Gain New Buyers and Additional Usage Occasions
Grass-Fed Beef
HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION
12.4%
Are Repeat Buyers of
52 Wk (Pre) Pandemic 3 YR CAGR (2019) Grass-Fed Beef
$ GROWTH +1% +48% +7% 6.2%
0.6%
LBS
GROWTH +2% +46% +11%
% of Dollars Spent on
AVG Grass-Fed Beef per
PRICE/LB $7.00 $7.16 $7.13 Trip
0.6% 65.5 Days
SHARE 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% Purchase Cycle
Sources: Household Panel data UPC + RW Reference Guide. All Outlets,
L52wks 2019 and ^ IRI Shopper Loyalty FSP data for Grocery (Food)
Source: IRI Market Advantage, US MULO, (Pre)Data Ending 2/23/2020 and (Pandemic) Data Ending 4/19/20 *Fixed Weight + Random Weight
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 63ahead
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 64Meat Department Takeaways and Key Considerations
• COVID-19 turned consumers’ attention to meat in an unprecedented way with more at-
home cooking from scratch driving experimentation and interest
• Recent media, supply constraints and price pressures brought about unprecedented
demand and changed behaviors expected to stay for the near-term
• Shoppers are deeply engaged with meat more than ever before
Recommendations:
• New buyers and behaviors are valuable to reinforce – this summer is a prime time to
market especially via targeted digital and online ordering engagement
• Proactively plan for the new economic reality – strategic pricing and promotional
engagement is overdue and now table-stakes in the meat department
• Consider new competitive and departmental realities – now is the time for solutions, not
silos, to capture and keep concentrated market share
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 65IRI’s Four Part Webinar
Series Tracking the
Dramatic Pivot of the
U.S. Consumer and Replay Available Here Replay Available Here
Shopper During the
COVID-19 Pandemic
Replay Available Here Replay Available Soon
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 66© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 67
Chris DuBois
Chris.Dubois@IRIworldwide.com
Jonna Parker
Jonna.Parker@IRIworldwide.com
Pete Swanson
Peter.SwansonJr@IRIworldwide.com
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 68You can also read
