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CONTINUE READING
ISSUE BRIEF: Special Edi on

    THE ROAD TO 9/11
    AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

    BY ALI SOUFAN
    SEPTEMBER 2021
                                                                           thesoufancenter.org

   KEY FINDINGS
• Al-Qaeda could not have developed its              • Long before the U.S. withdrawal, al-Qaeda
  plans for the September 11 attacks—nor               had already returned to Afghanistan, with
  selected its operatives, nor trained them,           hundreds of members and training camps
  nor coordinated their deployment to the              in Helmand province and elsewhere.
  United States—without a haven in                     Training at these camps is provided to
  Afghanistan from which to operate.                   Taliban fighters and foreigners, and the UN
                                                       has reported that the Taliban and al-Qaeda
• Most trainees in the camps never joined al-          “show no indication of breaking ties.”
  Qaeda; of the 10,000 to 20,000 who passed
  through the camps between 1996 and                 • Recommendations include: address the
  2001, only a few hundred became                      vacuums created by conflict and instability,
  members. The others were supposed to                 and deploying all levers of government,
  gain combat experience in Afghanistan,               including development assistance,
  Chechnya, or another theater, and the                diplomatic tools, and cultural and
  heightened terrorist risk in the region in           educational support, to address the
  the early 2000s has been largely attributed          conditions which enable terrorism; not to
  to veterans or returnees from the camps.             diminish attention to counterterrorism and
                                                       Afghanistan to pursue “great power
• When it came to its big attacks, al-Qaeda            competition”; strengthen capacities of
  planned centrally, using its base in                 frontline officials, including those who
  Afghanistan to bring the main plotters               work at borders, financial institutions, and
  together under the guidance of Osama bin             in communities, to identify potential risks;
  Laden. But when it came time for the                 declassify relevant documents to allow
  operatives to head to their target, al-Qaeda         survivors and analysts to better understand
  for security reasons invariably gave cell            the relationships between key players
  leaders significant autonomy.                        leading up to the attacks.

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                INTRODUCTION
                         Twenty years ago, in the fall of 2001, having            o p e ra v e s , n o r t ra i n e d t h e m , n o r
                         already spent years chasing Osama bin                    coordinated their deployment to the United
                         Laden, I found myself near Kabul, standing in            States—without a haven in Afghanistan from
                         one of the al-Qaeda leader’s safehouses—or               which to operate. Today, thanks to the
                         what remained of it. Intense coali on                    withdrawal of Western combat troops and
                         bombardment had reduced the building to                  the resurgence of Taliban power, al-Qaeda
                         rubble. Together with my fellow inves gators,            and its ilk may be poised to retake that
                         I si ed through the remains, looking for                 advantage—and, possibly, to grow even
                         evidence that might lead us to the al-Qaeda              stronger than before.
                         leader or his lieutenants. Toward the end of
                         our search, I picked up one of the many
                         bricks lying around and turned it over in my
                         hands. If this brick could talk, I wondered,               DEPARTURE AND RETURN
                         what could it tell us about how an atrocity on
                         the scale of 9/11 was conceived, planned,                As late as the spring of 1996, it must have
                         and carried out?                                         seemed that al-Qaeda was well on the road
                                                                                  to defeat. Under interna onal pressure, the
                         Nearly twenty years later, we know more                  Islamist government of Sudan, bin Laden’s
                         about that story—though not all, partly                  home away from home for the past four-and-
                         thanks to con nued secrecy around its more               a-bit years, had nally expelled him, in the
                         diploma cally sensi ve aspects. One element              process con sca ng prac cally all of his
                         stands out as crucial: al-Qaeda could not                assets in the country. Together with around
                         have developed its plans—nor selected its                50 followers, bin Laden limped back to the

                         September 11, 2001 Attack on New York's World Trade Center (AP Photo/ William Kratzke)

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ll have                                                           The movement took Kandahar in April 1996
                                          him, the country where he had rst made his                                                                and overran the capital, Kabul, in September
                                          name as an insurgent commander and                                                                        of the same year. Mullah Omar had himself
                                            nancier in the war against Soviet occupa on                                                             proclaimed Emir al-Muminin—Commander
                                          in the 1980s: Afghanistan.                                                                                of the Faithful—a tle held by the Islamic
                                                                                                                                                    caliphs of old. He took the alleged cloak of
                                          Bin Laden’s fortunes had fallen far since then.                                                           Prophet Mohammed from its reliquary in
                                          As if to underline al-Qaeda’s precarious state,                                                           Kandahar and donned it, anoin ng himself as
                                          within days of bin Laden’s ight from Sudan,                                                               the Prophet’s successor. But the Taliban
                                          one of his most trusted lieutenants, Abu                                                                  would never control the whole country. In
                                          Ubaidah al-Banshiri, was killed in the M/V                                                                par cular, the Northern Alliance—a coali on
                                          Bukoba ferry disaster on Lake Victoria in                                                                 of ethnic minority mili as under a
                                          Tanzania.                                                                                                 charisma c commander, Ahmad Shah
                                                                                                                                                    Masoud—would con nue to defy them un l
                                                                                                                                                    the end. Only three other countries ever
                                                                                                                                                    recognized the Taliban as the government of
                                                                                                                                                    Afghanistan: its southern neighbor, Pakistan,
                                                                                                                                                    which provided the Taliban with weapons
                                                                                                                                                    and cash; Saudi Arabia; and a close Saudi ally,
                                                                                                                                                    the United Arab Emirates.

                                                                                                                                                    The Taliban welcomed like-minded militants
                                                                                                                                                    from across the Muslim world. Between 1996
                                                                                                                                                    and 2001, Saudis, Yemenis, North Africans,
                                                                                                                                                    Pales nians, Kurds, Pakistanis, Uzbeks,
                                                                                                                                                    Uighurs, and others all made their way to
                                                                                                                                                    Afghanistan, seeking to rebuild their
                                                                                                                                                    fortunes. By 2001, around 14 foreign jihadi
                                                                                                                                                    groups were concentrated on Afghan soil,
                                                                                                                                                    comprising at least 1,800 ghters. The main
                                          Osama bin Laden, Dec. 1998 (AP Photo/Rahimullah                                                           objec ve of all of these militants was the
                                          Yousafzai)                                                                                                same: to train for war in Afghanistan and go
                                                                                                                                                    on to ght in theaters around the world—
                                                                                                                                                    including at various mes the Balkans,
                                          The USSR’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in                                                                 Chechnya, Algeria, and Afghanistan itself
                                          1989 had sounded the star ng gun on a                                                                     (although in the last case some felt queasy
                                          bloody civil war between fragments of the                                                                 about killing their fellow Muslims in the
                                          mujahideen guerillas who had fought the                                                                   Northern Alliance). A jihadi entering
                                          Soviet occupiers. One group, called the                                                                   Afghanistan in the 1990s would nd poten al
                                          Taliban (literally, “pupils”), emerged under                                                              a lia ons laid out like a sample pla er.
                                          the leadership of an illiterate village mys c
                                          named Mullah Mohammed Omar who                                                                            Al-Qaeda’s new problem, therefore, was not
                                          claimed to have had a divine vision calling                                                               so much iden fying new members as
                                          him to bring peace to Afghanistan. Mullah                                                                 direc ng the ood of recruits toward itself
                                          Omar’s version of “peace,” it turned out, was                                                             and away from ercely compe ve rival
                                          to kill anyone who stood in his way.                                                                      organizations. But bin Laden, characteris cally,

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so much so that this became one of the
                                                   nguishing al-Qaeda from a crowded eld,                                                    ideological factors behind the eventual ri
                                               he soon realized, would be to provoke the                                                     between al-Qaeda and a rival claimant to
                                               United States into singling him out as public                                                 that tle, ISIS.
                                               enemy number one. Thus, within months of
                                               his arrival in Afghanistan, around the me                                                     When it came to rela ons with the Taliban,
                                               the Taliban were consolida ng control over                                                    the al-Qaeda leader had a few aces in the
                                               Kabul, bin Laden issued a fatwa declaring all-                                                hole. First, his personal charisma and history
                                               out war on America.                                                                           as a revered mujahideen commander against
                                                                                                                                             the Soviets meant he had to be treated with
                                               At least ini ally, this did not please the                                                    the utmost respect, at least publicly. His
                                               Taliban leadership, who felt it would hinder                                                  status as an Arab, and especially one from
                                               t h e i r q u e st fo r w i d e r i nte r n a o n a l                                         Saudi Arabia—the Land of the Two Holy
                                               recogni on. A er bin Laden gave a                                                             Mosques—garnered him par cular reverence
                                               par cularly bellicose interview to CNN in                                                     among non-Arab Muslims. Second, al-Qaeda
                                               March 1997, Mullah Omar insisted that al-                                                     members, unlike some foreign ghters, had
                                               Qaeda move closer to the Taliban power base                                                   no compunc on about gh ng the Northern
                                               of Kandahar, the be er to keep an eye on                                                      Alliance—something that became even more
                                               them. Bin Laden complied, moving from the                                                     urgent shortly a er the group’s return to
                                               for ed cave complex at Tora Bora to the                                                       Afghanistan, when the Taliban came close to
                                               lea er surroundings of Tarnak Farms—much                                                      losing Kabul twice in the span of a few
                                               to the relief of his wives and children.                                                      m o nt h s . F i n a l l y, a n d p e r h a ps m o st
                                                                                                                                             importantly, bin Laden was, as always, a
                                               The following year, a er the East Africa U.S.                                                 money magnet. His “Golden Chain” of
                                               Embassy bombings and America’s retaliatory                                                    wealthy backers—most of them Saudis like
                                               missile strikes on Afghan soil, bin Laden was                                                 bin Laden himself—had evidently survived
                                               obliged to placate his hosts further by                                                       the ight from Sudan, and bin Laden was
                                               swearing bayat—allegiance—to Mullah Omar                                                      willing to share some of the largesse with his
                                               as Commander of the Faithful. Ini ally, he did                                                hosts.
                                               so in secret, and apparently with good
                                               reason. When word got out, it soured al-                                                      This support convinced Mullah Omar to
                                               Qaeda in the eyes of some, including bin                                                      indulge al-Qaeda. The group’s members were
                                               Laden’s own bodyguard, Abu Jandal, who                                                        allowed to travel to Afghanistan; move freely
                                               eventually le the organiza on in part                                                         once there; import and export materiel
                                               because he didn’t want to take orders from                                                    without restric on; put Afghan government
                                               the Taliban, even if the arrangement was                                                      license plates on their vehicles; and, perhaps
                                               mostly symbolic.                                                                              most importantly of all, establish a number of
                                                                                                                                             training camps. Eventually, bin Laden was
                                               Bin Laden’s oath, however cynically                                                           able to convince the Taliban to shut down
                                               mo vated, bound al-Qaeda s ll further to                                                      other Arab-run camps in Afghanistan and put
                                               the Taliban and to Afghanistan. A er Mullah                                                   him in overall charge of those that remained.
                                               Omar’s death, bin Laden’s successor, Ayman
                                               al-Zawahiri, has renewed al-Qaeda’s bayat to                                                  One long me bin Laden associate, Mustafa
                                               each succeeding Taliban leader. Al-Qaeda has                                                  Hamid, described al-Qaeda in this period as
                                               held dogma cally to the Taliban’s claim to be                                                 “behaving in Afghanistan as if they had an
                                               the only legi mate “Islamic State” on earth—                                                  individual state inside Afghanistan: a state

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                   inside the state.” In early 2000, the sta of                                                                                  Afghanistan, bin Laden spent a great por on
                                                   the U.S. Na onal Security Council put it more                                                                                 of his resources on building the group’s
                                                   bluntly: “Under the Taliban, Afghanistan is                                                                                   network of training camps. A pipeline soon
                                                   not so much a state sponsor of terrorism as it                                                                                developed. Recruits, ferried across the
                                                   is a state sponsored by terrorists.”                                                                                          border from Pakistan by the Taliban, would
                                                                                                                                                                                 arrive at a guesthouse, where they would be
                                                                                                                                                                                 sized up, quizzed about their backgrounds,
                                                                                                                                                                                 specialist skills, and prior entanglements with
                                                          REBUILDING THE BASE                                                                                                    law enforcement or intelligence, and treated
                                                                                                                                                                                 to sermons on discipline and “morals.”
                                                   An early turning point for al-Qaeda came at                                                                                   Assuming they passed the sni test—al-
                                                   the end of 1996, when a group of                                                                                              Qaeda was always wary of in ltra on by
                                                   experienced jihadis known as the “Northern                                                                                    foreign intelligence, and with good reason—
                                                   Ba alion” (not to be confused with the                                                                                        the recruits would move on to a 15-day boot
                                                   Northern Alliance) arrived at the                                                                                             camp, followed by another 45 days of basic
                                                   organiza on’s training camp of Jihad Wal                                                                                      training in military discipline and forma ons,
                                                   near the border with Pakistan. Originally                                                                                     small arms, rst aid, naviga on, and so on.
                                                   bound for combat in Tajikistan, the group’s                                                                                   This por on would culminate in maneuvers
                                                   40 members had been dismayed to nd that                                                                                       involving a staged a ack on a target—o en a
                                                   the war there appeared to be winding down.                                                                                    fake U.S. military base al-Qaeda had built out
                                                   In a series of sermons over several days, bin                                                                                 in the desert, complete with a agpole
                                                   Laden pitched al-Qaeda membership as an                                                                                       displaying the stars and stripes.
                                                   alterna ve. Only 17 of the 40 accepted; but
                                                   they included some of the most                                                                                                From the cohorts passing through these basic
                                                   consequen al members in the organiza on’s                                                                                     classes, a select few would be singled out for
                                                   history, among them Walid bin A ash (aka                                                                                      advanced training in skills such as
                                                   Khallad), a Saudi of Yemeni origin, who would                                                                                 reconnaissance, hijacking, espionage, and
                                                   train in al-Qaeda’s camps, lose a brother and                                                                                 assassina on. Di erent camps had di erent
                                                   a leg in ba le against the Northern Alliance,                                                                                 special es; for example, Banshiri Camp
                                                   and go on to serve as one of the principal                                                                                    (named for Abu Ubaidah al-Banshiri, the bin
                                                   planners behind the 9/11 a acks.                                                                                              Laden lieutenant killed in the ferry disaster in
                                                                                                                                                                                 Tanzania) specialized in two mainstays of
                                                   Planted in Afghan soil, al-Qaeda grew with                                                                                    terrorism: improvised explosive devices and
                                                   alarming speed. It established routes for                                                                                     urban warfare. Occasionally, bin Laden
                                                   smuggling opera ves through Pakistan and                                                                                      himself would par cipate as an instructor,
                                                   Iran, including safe houses in both of those                                                                                  giving inspira onal speeches and training
                                                   countries. It developed a complex governing                                                                                   people on night exercises.
                                                   structure, with ministerial por olios including
                                                   training, military, security, administra on,                                                                                  Most trainees never joined al-Qaeda; of the
                                                   and more. It supported the crea on of a                                                                                       10,000 to 20,000 who passed through the
                                                   chemical weapons lab near Jalalabad and a                                                                                     camps between 1996 and 2001, only a few
                                                   biological warfare facility near Kandahar.                                                                                    hundred became pledged members. The
                                                                                                                                                                                 others were supposed to gain combat
                                                   As be ed his mission of making al-Qaeda                                                                                       experience in Afghanistan, Chechnya, or
                                                   t h e p re - e m i n e nt fo re i g n fa c o n i n                                                                            another theater of war, then return to their

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                         Damaged Hull of the USS Cole at the Yemeni port of Aden, Oct. 2000 (AP Photo/Dimitri Messinis)

                                    home countries in the core of the Muslim                                                                 established in Afghanistan, however, the
                                    world—notably North Africa, South-East Asia,                                                             group could now begin plo ng its own
                                    Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.                                                                                 spectacular a acks in-house. Its campaign
                                                                                                                                             began in earnest with the August 1998
                                    A handful of trainees were marked out for                                                                bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and
                                    special “external opera ons” on behalf of al-                                                            Tanzania, in which more than 200 people
                                    Qaeda itself. During the two months of basic                                                             were murdered.
                                    training, the instructors had the opportunity
                                    to assess recruits for the desired combina on                                                            In response, the United States launched 66
                                    of fervor and pa ence—the la er being                                                                    cruise missiles at al-Qaeda facili es in Khost.
                                    necessary given the long planning cycles                                                                 The Clinton administra on made li le e ort
                                    needed for plo ng large-scale a acks against                                                             to determine whether bin Laden was home
                                    the West. The head of al-Farouq camp, Abu                                                                at the me, which of course he was not,
                                    Mohammed al-Masri (who would remain a                                                                    having ordered al-Qaeda facili es evacuated
                                    leader in al-Qaeda un l his eventual                                                                     as a precau on. Very few al-Qaeda members
                                    assassina on in Tehran in 2020) was said to                                                              were killed or wounded, and all of its leaders
                                    be especially adept at spo ng would-be                                                                   survived unscathed. The missiles destroyed a
                                    suicide bombers. Those singled out for these                                                             kitchen, a mosque, and a bathroom block.
                                    so-called “martyrdom opera ons” would be                                                                 Some even landed intact, without
                                    quietly removed from the mainstream and                                                                  detona ng; bin Laden allegedly sold them.
                                    placed in a special program.
                                                                                                                                             In the a ermath of this show of force, the
                                    Previously, al-Qaeda had played a suppor ng                                                              U.S. may have hoped al-Qaeda would cease
                                    role in a acks on America, such as the                                                                   and desist. The result was the opposite.
                                    infamous “Black Hawk Down” incident that                                                                 Being the target of an American a ack made
                                    precipitated U.S. withdrawal from Somalia in                                                             bin Laden even more of a hero than before,
                                    1993. With its facili es and structures                                                                  and recruitment increased concomitantly.

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behind the February 1993 World Trade
                                                             cal of al-Qaeda, instead turned                                                                       Center bombing, and the two had since
                                             their ire on America. Mullah Omar, who prior                                                                          plo ed together to blow up airliners in
                                             to the a acks had been in talks to hand bin                                                                           Southeast Asia in a plot codenamed
                                             Laden over to the Saudis, now reneged; the                                                                            “Bojinka.”
                                             Taliban, he realized, could not be seen as
                                             kowtowing to American “aggression.” Above                                                                             Now, KSM had something else in mind. He
                                             all, al-Qaeda increased its pres ge in the eyes                                                                       wanted to train opera ves as pilots and crash
                                             of jihadis in Afghanistan and around the                                                                              single-engine Cessna planes into the World
                                             world. Evidently, the strategy of pulling the                                                                         Trade Center in an a empt to nish what
                                              ger’s tail was a good one.                                                                                           Ramzi Yousef had started. KSM brought the
                                                                                                                                                                   idea to a fellow Afghanistan-based freelancer,
                                             In October 2000, al-Qaeda suicide bombers                                                                             Abu Zubaydah.
                                             a acked the USS Cole as it refueled in
                                             Yemen, killing seventeen American sailors. At                                                                         Zubaydah was unimpressed. “Flying Cessna
                                             bin Laden’s direc on, al-Qaeda made a glossy                                                                          planes into the World Trade Center will only
                                             propaganda video, juxtaposing a                                                                                       break windows,” he said. “At least ll the
                                             reenactment of the a ack with footage of                                                                              planes with explosives.”
                                             the training camps in Afghanistan. Again the
                                               ow of recruits and money increased. But                                                                             “That’s a good improvement,” KSM said.
                                             overall, bin Laden was disappointed with the                                                                          “Will you help me?”
                                             results; partly because, this me, the U.S.
                                             response was prac cally nonexistent. Most                                                                             Zubaydah demurred, referring KSM instead
                                             gallingly of all, bin Laden s ll had not                                                                              to bin Laden; and since al-Qaeda was also
                                             managed to unite the foreign terrorist groups                                                                         based in Afghanistan, KSM had li le di culty
                                             under his banner.                                                                                                     securing an audience. In the fall of 1996, KSM
                                                                                                                                                                   met bin Laden for the rst me and pitched
                                             The lesson bin Laden drew, typically, was that                                                                        his explosive-laden-Cessnas idea. At rst, bin
                                             he needed to carry out even bigger a acks.                                                                            Laden told KSM bluntly that his proposed
                                             As Salim Hamdan, bin Laden’s driver and                                                                               opera on was not feasible. Nevertheless, he
                                             con dant, later told me, “You brought 9/11                                                                            invited KSM to join al-Qaeda. KSM refused to
                                             on yourselves; you didn’t respond to the                                                                              pledge allegiance formally—he always liked
                                             Cole, so bin Laden had to hit harder.”                                                                                to keep his op ons open—but he stuck
                                                                                                                                                                   around anyway, helping with administra ve
                                                                                                                                                                   tasks while con nuing to pitch his
                                                                                                                                                                   masterplan. (Eventually, a er the East Africa
                                             THE “PLANES OPERATION”                                                                                                embassy bombings, KSM decided that bin
                                                                                                                                                                   Laden was the real deal and did pledge
                                                                                                                                                                   allegiance to him.)
                                             In early 1996, a few months before al-Qaeda
                                             was expelled from Sudan, a freelance
                                                                                                                                                                   Despite his early skep cism, bin Laden found
                                             terrorist named Khalid Sheikh Mohammed
                                                                                                                                                                   that he could not stop thinking about the
                                             had le Qatar with U.S. intelligence hot on
                                                                                                                                                                   “Planes Opera on,” as KSM called it. And as
                                             his heels. Like many jihadis at that me, KSM
                                                                                                                                                                   he thought about the poten al a acks, the
                                             made his way to Afghanistan. His nephew
                                                                                                                                                                   picture in his mind grew more and more
                                             Ramzi Yousef had been the mastermind
                                                                                                                                                                   violent—feasibility be damned.

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                   “Why go to war with an ax when you can use                                                                       Mohammed Atef, pored over the list of
                                                   a bulldozer?” bin Laden asked KSM. And the                                                                       poten al targets, boiling it down from an
                                                   al-Qaeda leader proceeded to outline a                                                                           ini al nine (which was deemed too
                                                   nightmare vision: al-Qaeda opera ves would                                                                       ambi ous) to just four: the White House, the
                                                   travel to the United States, hijack passenger                                                                    U.S. Capitol Building, the Pentagon, and the
                                                   jets on coast-to-coast routes—which would                                                                        World Trade Center.
                                                   therefore be fully laden with fuel—and crash
                                                   them into the World Trade Center and other                                                                       As requested, trainers in the specialist camps
                                                   targets. If they were lucky, bin Laden said,                                                                     sent a number of promising recruits to bin
                                                   they might even bring down a few upper                                                                           Laden. Two in par cular caught the leader’s
                                                     oors of the twin towers.                                                                                       eye: Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Midhar,
                                                                                                                                                                    both Saudis from well-to-do Meccan families
                                                   From a more prac cal point of view, the                                                                          not dissimilar to bin Laden’s own Jeddah-
                                                   argument that nally won bin Laden around                                                                         based clan (albeit much less wealthy than the
                                                   to the Planes Opera on was the one that                                                                          bin Ladens with their construc on empire).
                                                   aligned most perfectly with his number one                                                                       He sent Hazmi and Midhar for elite training
                                                   priority: a bloody and spectacular a ack                                                                         at Mes Ayak, a facility built inside an
                                                   against the United States would burnish al-                                                                      abandoned copper mine near Kabul. Their
                                                   Qaeda’s brand around the world, bringing                                                                         course was physical and kine c, involving
                                                   muscle and money to Afghanistan. Assuming                                                                        hand-to-hand combat, general tness, and a
                                                   it provoked a big enough backlash, it might                                                                      spec-ops course taught by a long- me al-
                                                   even force unity among the foreign groups in                                                                     Q a e d a l e a d e r a n d fo r m e r E g y p a n
                                                   the country, with bin Laden as their natural                                                                     commando, Saif al-Adel.
                                                   overlord.
                                                                                                                                                                    From the beginning, the Planes Opera on
                                                   Others—among them prac cally all al-                                                                             was a global one. Most of the training and
                                                   Qaeda’s top leadership—warned that a                                                                             planning took place in Afghanistan, of course.
                                                   su ciently large American military response                                                                      But the main hub for nance, travel, and
                                                   might bring down the Taliban and with them                                                                       other logis cs was the home of Ammar al-
                                                   al-Qaeda’s safe haven. Bin Laden sco ed at                                                                       Baluchi, another nephew of KSM, in the
                                                   this. The Americans would not send in                                                                            United Arab Emirates. Some of the
                                                   ground forces; their withdrawal from Somalia                                                                     coordina on mee ngs would take place in
                                                   and their weak responses to the embassy                                                                          Malaysia. KSM himself operated largely out
                                                   and Cole bombings proved it. And if they did                                                                     of a safehouse in Karachi, a port megalopolis
                                                   invade, so much the be er: Afghanistan was                                                                       in his ancestral home country of Pakistan.
                                                   called the grave of empires for a reason: it                                                                     There, he carried out research, reading
                                                   had seen o everyone from Alexander the                                                                           avia on magazines, watching movies that
                                                   Great to the Soviet Union. If the Americans                                                                      showed hijackings, and playing a ight
                                                   came, al-Qaeda would defeat them, and                                                                            simulator video game.
                                                   Osama bin Laden would reach his apotheosis.
                                                                                                                                                                    In December 1999, Hazmi and Midhar joined
                                                   Once bin Laden made up his mind, that was                                                                        KSM in Karachi for training in avia on, airline
                                                   that. By the spring of 1999, the Planes                                                                          security, Western culture, and basic English
                                                   Opera on had been approved and its                                                                               (KSM having himself studied in the United
                                                   planners were at work. At Tarnak Farms,                                                                          States). In these more cerebral ma ers, the
                                                   KSM, bin Laden, and al-Qaeda’s military chief,                                                                   two proved to be poor students—a trait that

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                 would eventually see them both demoted to                                                                                Hafs al-Masri, with backgrounds in special
                                                                 the status of mere “muscle” for the 9/11 plot                                                                            forces and policing respec vely.
                                                                 —and they le KSM exasperated by their
                                                                 inability to pick up even the most                                                                                       A er recording “martyrdom videos,” the four
                                                                 rudimentary English phrases.                                                                                             were sent back to Hamburg to obtain visas to
                                                                                                                                                                                          a end ight schools in the United States. In
                                                                                                                                                                                          Germany, they laid low, avoided extreme
                                                                                                                                                                                          mosques, and even shaved o their beards.
                                                                      THE HAMBURG CONTINGENT                                                                                              By mid-2000, three of the Hamburg
                                                                      & THE MUSCLE                                                                                                        Con ngent had obtained the requisite visas.
                                                                                                                                                                                          Only Ramzi Binalshibh’s applica on had been
                                                                                                                                                                                          rejected; as a Yemeni, he was automa cally
                                                                 No doubt worried by reports of Hazmi and                                                                                 suspected of intending to overstay and
                                                                 Midhar’s dismal performance, bin Laden was                                                                               b e c o m e a n u n d o c u m e n t e d w o r ke r.
                                                                 on the lookout for opera ves who might do                                                                                Binalshibh instead became an important
                                                                 be er. At the end of 1999, he suddenly                                                                                   manager in the plot, coordina ng the
                                                                 received not one but four.                                                                                               hijackers’ training and facilita ng their
                                                                                                                                                                                          movements between Afghan training camps
                                                                 Mohammed A a, Ramzi Binalshibh, Marwan                                                                                   and Western ci es.
                                                                 al-Shehhi, and Ziad Jarrah had all lived as
                                                                 students in Hamburg, Germany, where they                                                                                 As a result of Binalshibh’s visa failure, bin
                                                                 bonded over their shared extreme views,                                                                                  Laden was down a pilot; but soon he enjoyed
                                                                 under the in uence of a local preacher who                                                                               another stroke of good luck when, out of
                                                                 had allegedly fought the Soviets in                                                                                      nowhere, a recruit somehow even more
                                                                 Afghanistan in the 1980s. In long discussions                                                                            perfect than the Hamburg Four just
                                                                 at the apartment shared by A a, Binalshibh,                                                                              happened to show up at the al-Farouq basic
                                                                 and Shehhi, the four talked each other up to                                                                             training camp. Hani Hanjour’s applica on
                                                                 ever-increasing heights of an -Americanism,                                                                              form showed that he had not only studied
                                                                 culmina ng in a collec ve decision to travel                                                                             English in the United States; while there he
                                                                 to Afghanistan seeking jihadi training. Having                                                                           had obtained a pilot’s license from the
                                                                 presented themselves at the Taliban o ce in                                                                              Federal Avia on Administra on. Almost
                                                                 Que a, Pakistan, in the fall of 1999, they                                                                               immediately, Hanjour was sent to KSM.
                                                                 were escorted over the border and pledged                                                                                Between the Hamburg Con ngent, the two
                                                                 allegiance to al-Qaeda in Kandahar.                                                                                      Meccans, and Hanjour, the Planes Opera on
                                                                                                                                                                                          now had six opera ves, all of them poten al
                                                                 Bin Laden knew a windfall when he saw it.                                                                                pilots.
                                                                 These men seemed just as fervent as Hazmi
                                                                 and Midhar; but unlike the two Saudis, they                                                                              The plot s ll required “muscle”—hijackers to
                                                                 also had lived in the West; spoke at least                                                                               overpower the crews of the targeted planes
                                                                 passable English; possessed useful technical                                                                             and keep the passengers at bay. Between
                                                                 skills; and had poten al as pilots. A a, in                                                                              summer 2000 and spring 2001, Bin Laden
                                                                 par cular, was quickly iden ed as a natural                                                                              and Atef scoured al-Qaeda’s training camps
                                                                 opera onal leader. Almost at once, bin Laden                                                                             for likely candidates. Of the thirteen they
                                                                 had them separated from the other trainees                                                                               selected, twelve were Saudis and one was
                                                                 and placed in a special fast-track program run                                                                           from the United Arab Emirates. This tracked
                                                                 by two of his top brass, Saif al-Adel and Abu                                                                            demographics in the camps, in which 70% of

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                    recruits were from Saudi Arabia (another                                                                                       assistance. They got it: local contacts helped
                                                    20% were Yemeni and thus, like Binalshibh,                                                                                     them with, among other things, opening
                                                    unlikely to get U.S. visas). Some of the                                                                                       bank accounts and rent apartments.
                                                    “muscle” hijackers had apparently hoped to
                                                     ght in Chechnya, only to nd themselves                                                                                        It has long been suspected that some of
                                                    turned back by Russian border guards.                                                                                          those who assisted Hazmi and Midhar were,
                                                    According to Mustafa Hamid, some were                                                                                          or acted at the behest of, Saudi o cials. In its
                                                    poached from Abu Zubaydah’s con ngent at                                                                                         nal report, the 9/11 Commission found:
                                                    Khaldan, one of the non-al-Qaeda camps
                                                    which the Taliban had ordered closed.                                                                                              While in the United States, some of the
                                                                                                                                                                                       September 11 hijackers were in contact
                                                    The muscle were rst sent home to obtain                                                                                            with, and received support or assistance
                                                    U.S. visas, which each of them did with li le                                                                                      from, individuals who may be connected
                                                    to no trouble. Travel documents in hand, they                                                                                      to the Saudi Government. There is
                                                    returned to Afghanistan for specialist                                                                                             informa on, primarily from FBI sources,
                                                    training. Alongside hijacking, al-Qaeda’s                                                                                          that at least two of those individuals
                                                    instructors taught them other types of a ack,                                                                                      were alleged by some to be Saudi
                                                    so that they would not surmise the exact                                                                                           intelligence o cers.
                                                    nature of the opera on for which they had
                                                    been selected. In a par cularly grisly detail,                                                                                 Even that lukewarm conclusion, however—
                                                    the knife skills por on involved slaughtering                                                                                  together with more than two dozen pages
                                                    and butchering animals, in prepara on to do                                                                                    summarizing the mostly circumstan al
                                                    the same to human beings if necessary.                                                                                         evidence backing it up—was classi ed Top
                                                                                                                                                                                   Secret for thirteen years. Parts remain
                                                    Their founda onal training in Afghanistan                                                                                      r e d a c t e d t o t h i s d a y. S u c c e s s i v e
                                                    complete, the “muscle” traveled to KSM’s                                                                                       administra ons have kept poten ally
                                                    Karachi safehouse, where the mastermind                                                                                        illumina ng documents classi ed on the
                                                    put them through a basic version of his                                                                                        basis that to reveal them would risk
                                                    Western culture and English course. KSM                                                                                        “signi cant harm to the na onal security”—a
                                                    gave each $10,000 and sent them to Dubai,                                                                                      defense that, a er two decades, is wearing
                                                    where his nephew Ammar al-Baluchi                                                                                              dis nctly thin.
                                                    received them, helped them get acclima zed
                                                    to a Western-style city, and arranged for their                                                                                In a class ac on lawsuit currently pending
                                                    onward travel to the United States.                                                                                            against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
                                                                                                                                                                                   survivors of 9/11 and the families of many of
                                                                                                                                                                                   those who were murdered that day allege
                                                                                                                                                                                   that some of those who helped Hazmi and
                                                          ARRIVAL IN AMERICA                                                                                                       Midhar were, in fact, ac ve agents of the
                                                                                                                                                                                   Saudi Ministry of Islamic A airs, ac ng under
                                                                                                                                                                                   orders from Riyadh. An inves ga on by
                                                    Hazmi and Midhar arrived in Los Angeles in                                                                                     ProPublica and the New York Times found
                                                    January 2000, both traveling on valid U.S.                                                                                     indirect evidence of such a connec on. We
                                                    visas. They spent two weeks in the city                                                                                        must take these allega ons seriously, not
                                                    before moving on to San Diego. With their                                                                                      least because they are backed by sworn
                                                    shaky grasp of English and unfamiliarity with                                                                                  a davits from former FBI agents who have
                                                    Western ways, they needed a great deal of                                                                                      inves gated the ma er. The best way to deal

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                          with the ma er, of course, would be for the                                                       physically gh ng him for the airplane’s
                                                                          U.S. government to declassify documents                                                           controls during lessons. Nevertheless, by the
                                                                          rela ng to these contacts and allow the                                                           end of 2000 all three had obtained their
                                                                          public to see for themselves.                                                                     commercial pilot licenses and begun
                                                                                                                                                                            simulator training for ying big jets.
                                                                          Following their move to San Diego, Hazmi
                                                                          and Midhar soon enrolled in ight school, but                                                      Aside from a few trips to the Washington, DC
                                                                          their con nued infacility with English held                                                       area, the Hamburg Three stayed in Florida,
                                                                          them back, just as KSM had predicted. The                                                         while Hazmi and Hanjour moved to the
                                                                          two also displayed a stunning lack of regard                                                      suburbs of New York City. At these two East
                                                                          for opera onal security. At one ying school,                                                      Coast bases, they welcomed and assisted the
                                                                          they told an instructor who happened to                                                           muscle hijackers, who arrived from
                                                                          speak Arabic that they were not interested in                                                     Afghanistan via Ammar al-Baluchi’s Dubai
                                                                          single-engine planes and wanted to y big                                                          logis cs hub, singly or in pairs, during the
                                                                          passenger jets right away. Other instructors                                                        rst half of 2001. Khalid al-Midhar arrived on
                                                                          recalled their obvious lack of interest in                                                        July 4. As a result of his having gone AWOL
                                                                          perfec ng their takeo and landing skills.                                                         the previous year, Midhar had failed to
                                                                                                                                                                            complete his ight training and had wound
                                                                          Around ve months a er his and Hazmi’s                                                             up, like Hazmi, as muscle instead.
                                                                          arrival, Midhar le the United States and
                                                                          returned to his wife’s home in Yemen, where                                                       Exactly one month later, on August 4,
                                                                          his rst child had just been born. Hazmi                                                           another al-Qaeda member—another Saudi—
                                                                          stayed in San Diego alone; he was even listed,                                                    arrived at the airport in Orlando. Mohammed
                                                                          under his real name, in the city’s phone book.                                                    al-Qahtani had no return cket, no credible
                                                                          In December 2000, he was joined by Hanjour,                                                       reason for being in the United States, and
                                                                          the quali ed pilot bin Laden had plucked out                                                      nearly $3,000 in cash. Qahtani was allegedly
                                                                          of basic training at al-Farouq. Together, they                                                    the missing “twen eth hijacker’; if so, he was
                                                                          moved to Arizona, intending for Hazmi to                                                          the only one to be denied entry to the United
                                                                          enroll at Hanjour’s old ight school. But                                                          States.
                                                                          Hazmi remained a terrible student; at least
                                                                          two instructors told him he would be be er                                                        Later, when I interrogated Qahtani at
                                                                          o giving up, which he eventually did; by the                                                      Guantanamo Bay, he told me that while he
                                                                          day of the a acks, Hazmi would nd himself                                                         was sojourning with Ammar al-Baluchi in
                                                                          relieved of pilo ng du es and relegated to                                                        Dubai, he would o en go down to the
                                                                          the status of muscle.                                                                             waterfront and pray for a sign.

                                                                          Meanwhile, in early summer 2000, the three                                                        “God, if You approve of what I am about to
                                                                          visa-approved members of the Hamburg                                                              do, please facilitate it,” he would say as he
                                                                          Con ngent had arrived in the United States,                                                       stared out over the lapping waters of the
                                                                          but on the opposite coast. They enrolled in                                                       Persian Gulf. “But if you disapprove, please
                                                                           ight school in Venice, Florida, on the Gulf                                                      stop it.”
                                                                          Coast south of Sarasota. They may have been
                                                                          be er learners than Hazmi and Midhar, but                                                         It might be di cult to imagine a clearer sign
                                                                          they could be just as problema c when it                                                          of God’s disfavor than Qahtani’s failure to
                                                                          came to secrecy: one instructor remembered                                                        enter the United States; but Qahtani
                                                                          A a and Shehhi being aggressive and                                                               evidently chose to ignore it, for he said

                                                                                                                                                                       11
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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                  nothing—indeed, he promptly returned to                                                                                                                         that, if for any reason they could not reach
                                                                  bin Laden in Afghanistan, as we will see—and                                                                                                                    the mark, they were to crash the plane into
                                                                  the plot went ahead.                                                                                                                                            the ground, killing everyone on board.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  In the weeks and months leading up to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  a acks, several hijackers took test ights
                                                                   FINAL DESTINATIONS                                                                                                                                             domes cally on board similar aircra ,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  carrying box cu ers in their carry-on
                                                                  When it came to its big a acks, al-Qaeda                                                                                                                        baggage. On no occasion did they have
                                                                  planned centrally, using its base in                                                                                                                            trouble ge ng through security; and on
                                                                  Afghanistan to bring the main plo ers                                                                                                                           every one of the ights, they observed that
                                                                  together under the auspices of the ul mate                                                                                                                      the cockpit doors would be opened ten to
                                                                  decision-maker, Osama bin Laden. But when                                                                                                                          een minutes a er takeo . So regular was
                                                                  it came me for the opera ves to leave                                                                                                                           this prac ce that A a didn’t even bother
                                                                  Afghanistan and head to their target, al-                                                                                                                         guring out a backup plan in case the doors
                                                                  Qaeda for security reasons invariably gave                                                                                                                      didn’t open.
                                                                  cell leaders in the eld a wide margin to
                                                                  decide when and how to proceed. Thus, once                                                                                                                      With just six or so weeks le , A a’s Hamburg
                                                                  all the 9/11 opera ves were in the United                                                                                                                       colleague Ziad Jarrah came close to
                                                                  States, it fell to Mohammed A a, the                                                                                                                            abandoning the plot. On July 25, he ew back
                                                                  opera onal leader selected from among the                                                                                                                       to Germany to see his girlfriend—one of ve
                                                                  Hamburg Con ngent, to gure out the                                                                                                                              interna onal trips Jarrah made between
                                                                  details.                                                                                                                                                        arriving in the U.S. and carrying out the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  a acks. Ramzi Binalshibh, the Yemeni
                                                                  A a remained in contact with Binalshibh,                                                                                                                        member of the Hamburg Con ngent who
                                                                  who was helping to manage the plot from                                                                                                                         had become one of the plot’s principal
                                                                  Europe. At one occasion, they met in Spain.                                                                                                                     managers a er being turned down for a visa,
                                                                  Binalshibh passed instruc ons to A a from                                                                                                                       intercepted Jarrah at the airport in
                                                                  Bin Laden and the leadership in Afghanistan.                                                                                                                    Düsseldorf and convinced him to see the plot
                                                                  The two also devised a code for referring to                                                                                                                    through. Jarrah returned to the United States
                                                                  ta rg e t s , d i s g u i s i n g t h e i r te l e p h o n e                                                                                                    with his resolve renewed. In August, A a
                                                                  conversa on as a discussion of poten al                                                                                                                         oversaw coordina on mee ngs in Florida,
                                                                    elds of study (the principal hijackers were                                                                                                                   New Jersey, and Las Vegas. He gured out the
                                                                  ostensibly s ll students). Thus, “architecture”                                                                                                                 op mal date by cross-referencing four ights
                                                                  meant the World Trade Center; “law” was the                                                                                                                     that would be in the air simultaneously, with
                                                                  Capitol Building; “arts” the Pentagon; and                                                                                                                      airplane models the pilots knew how to y, at
                                                                  “poli cs” the White House, which the two                                                                                                                        the start of long routes (so that the planes
                                                                  were s ll considering as a possible target as                                                                                                                   would be laden with fuel), matching
                                                                  late as August 3.                                                                                                                                               everything up using searches on the website
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Travelocity.
                                                                  A a assigned teams to himself and the other
                                                                  three remaining pilots, taking care to                                                                                                                          On August 29, A a called Binalshibh at 3 a.m.
                                                                  distribute English language skills evenly, so                                                                                                                   Hamburg me.
                                                                  that each team would be able to control the
                                                                  passengers on its respec ve ight. He gave
                                                                  the pilots their targets and instructed them

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                         “One of my friends related a riddle to me,”                                                                          But bin Laden also had a plan to keep the
                                                                         A a said. “I cannot solve it… Two s cks, a                                                                           Taliban on-side. He was going to murder their
                                                                         dash, and a cake with a s ck down.”                                                                                  most bi er rival, the Northern Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                              commander Ahmad Shah Masoud. On
                                                                         11-9. The European standard for September                                                                            September 9, assassins posing as journalists
                                                                         11. It took Binalshibh a moment to get it, but                                                                       detonated a bomb hidden in their camera,
                                                                         then he said, “Tell your friend he has nothing                                                                       killing Masoud and themselves. The next day,
                                                                         to worry about. It’s such a sweet riddle.”                                                                           bin Laden took to the mountains, telling his
                                                                                                                                                                                              entourage something was afoot that would
                                                                         In the United States, al-Qaeda’s so-called                                                                           bring ghters ocking to his banner.
                                                                         “martyrs” set about enjoying the days le to
                                                                         them. A a pounded shots of vodka. Others                                                                             On the morning of September 11, A a,
                                                                         went to strip clubs. Within days, Binalshibh                                                                         Shehhi, Hanjour, and Jarrah boarded ights
                                                                         had packed his bags in Hamburg and set o                                                                             out of Boston, Newark, and Dulles with their
                                                                         for Afghanistan to tell bin Laden the good                                                                           respec ve teams. In each case, the modus
                                                                         news.                                                                                                                operandi was similar: the hijackers used box
                                                                                                                                                                                              cu ers to kill the pilots and pepper spray to
                                                                         For the al-Qaeda leader, the a acks could not                                                                        keep the passengers back while the
                                                                         come soon enough. Earlier that year, Mullah                                                                          designated pilot took the controls. A a’s
                                                                         Omar had a empted to se le the squabbling                                                                            plane hit the North Tower of the World Trade
                                                                         between the foreign militant groups by                                                                               Center; Shehhi’s the South Tower; Hanjour’s
                                                                         pu ng someone in overall charge of all of                                                                            the Pentagon. Jarrah’s team, down a man
                                                                         them: not bin Laden but an Uzbek                                                                                     because of Qahtani’s denial of entry to the
                                                                         commander, Juma Bai. This naturally                                                                                  United States—and further disadvantaged by
                                                                         dismayed al-Qaeda, as well as the other Arab                                                                         the plane’s delayed departure, which gave its
                                                                         groups, whose members always considered                                                                              passengers the chance to become aware of
                                                                         themselves a cut above mere Central Asians;                                                                          the earlier a acks—was overpowered.
                                                                         but bin Laden himself remained con dent.                                                                             Following A a’s orders, Jarrah crashed the
                                                                         Soon, he would pull o the ul mate                                                                                    plane into a eld in Pennsylvania. The plane
                                                                         provoca on against the United States; the                                                                            was about 20 minutes out from the U.S.
                                                                         one that would make him the undisputed                                                                               Capitol Building.
                                                                         leader among foreign ghters in Afghanistan.
                                                                         Only he and a few trusted lieutenants knew                                                                           In Afghanistan, traveling around with a small
                                                                         what was about to happen.                                                                                            entourage almost at random so as to avoid
                                                                                                                                                                                              detec on, bin Laden brie y camped by the
                                                                         In the spring, al-Qaeda had announced its                                                                            side of the road to watch the news unfold.
                                                                         long-planned merger with Egyp an Islamic                                                                             Unable to get a signal on his satellite
                                                                         Jihad, a group led by the former doctor                                                                              television, he instead listened on BBC Arabic
                                                                         Ayman al-Zawahiri. This announcement,                                                                                radio, silently coun ng o the a acks on his
                                                                         naturally, was accompanied by renewed                                                                                  ngers. With each crash, his followers
                                                                         bloodthirsty threats against the United                                                                              chanted and red their AK-47s into the air in
                                                                         States. As Mustafa Hamid was to recall years                                                                         celebra on.
                                                                         later, bin Laden “prac cally appointed
                                                                         himself as ruler of Afghanistan. It was some                                                                         Bin Laden shushed them. “There is more!” he
                                                                         kind of coup; declaring war on behalf of the                                                                         said. “Listen!”
                                                                         Afghan people and their emir.”

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                         In his own quiet way, bin Laden was just as                                                                                  in places like Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and la erly
                                         elated as his bodyguards. One thing irked                                                                                    Syria. A acks by opera ves trained in the
                                         him, however. While Salim Hamdan drove his                                                                                   Afghan camps con nued for a few years a er
                                         boss to yet another secret loca on, bin Laden                                                                                their dispersal; one example was the London
                                         pointed to a picture of the Capitol Building                                                                                 “7/7” bombings in 2005, whose opera onal
                                         and told his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, how                                                                                  leader, Mohammed Sidique Khan, had
                                         disappointed he was that the fourth plane                                                                                    trained with al-Qaeda. Some of al-Qaeda’s
                                         (which at the me he assumed the American                                                                                     component fac ons sought to inspire “lone-
                                         military had shot down) had failed to “hit                                                                                   wolf” a acks like the Boston Marathon
                                         that big dome.”                                                                                                              bombing of 2013, in which the a ackers
                                                                                                                                                                      learned bomb-making techniques from a
                                         For a brief moment in the a ermath of the                                                                                    magazine published by al-Qaeda in the
                                         a acks, bin Laden nally got everything he                                                                                    Arabian Peninsula. But without its powerbase
                                         wanted. From a base strength of about 400                                                                                    in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda could not con nue
                                         al-Qaeda members on September 11, the                                                                                        moun ng spectacular, large-scale a acks
                                         a acks drew around 2,000 foreign ghters to                                                                                   against the West.
                                         Afghanistan. And at last, the Taliban placed
                                         all the foreign militant groups under al-                                                                                    Bin Laden’s death in 2011 was a grievous
                                         Qaeda’s leadership—for the purposes of                                                                                       blow to al-Qaeda. Not only was bin Laden a
                                         moun ng a defense against the Americans.                                                                                     magnet for dona ons and recruits;
                                                                                                                                                                      documents found in his Abbotabad
                                         The U.S. ground invasion came as a shock to                                                                                  compound show that he was in overall
                                         many in al-Qaeda, among them some high-                                                                                      control of the organiza on un l the day he
                                         ranking members like Salim Hamdan,                                                                                           died. But the founder’s death would by no
                                         indoctrinated to believe that America was a                                                                                  means prove fatal to al-Qaeda.
                                         cowardly na on. While Saif al-Adel
                                         coordinated a last-ditch defense of Kandahar,
                                         bin Laden retreated to his cave complex at
                                         Tora Bora, the place he had lived for a me                                                                                    DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN
                                         on rst returning to Afghanistan in 1996. But
                                         he soon realized he could not defend it. Bin                                                                                 Less than two weeks a er 9/11, the Taliban
                                         Laden disappeared into the mountains with a                                                                                  leader Mullah Omar gave an interview to
                                         handful of retainers, leaving a force in the                                                                                 Voice of America. Asked why he did not just
                                         caves to hold o the Americans as long as                                                                                     turn over bin Laden in order to forestall an
                                         possible. One of those apprehended in the                                                                                    American invasion, he replied:
                                         area a er the fall of Tora Bora was the
                                         would-be twen eth hijacker, Mohammed al-                                                                                        I am considering two promises. One is the
                                         Qahtani, who claimed he had only been                                                                                           promise of God. The other is that of Bush.
                                         visi ng Afghanistan to perfect his falconry                                                                                     The promise of God is that my land is vast.
                                         skills—despite having been apprehended                                                                                          If you start a journey on God’s path, you
                                         along with bin Laden’s bodyguards.                                                                                              can reside anywhere on this earth and will
                                                                                                                                                                         be protected... The promise of Bush is
                                         Al-Qaeda quickly morphed from a                                                                                                 that there is no place on earth where you
                                         hierarchical mili a into a decentralized                                                                                        can hide that I cannot nd you. We will
                                         network of local organiza ons, most of them                                                                                     see which one of these two promises is
                                         primarily concerned with gh ng in civil wars                                                                                    ful lled.

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                       In the eyes of jihadis the world over, God has                                                                                                     embedded al-Qaeda militants have grown so
                                                       now delivered for the Taliban in spectacular                                                                                                       essen al to Taliban military opera ons that
                                                       style (albeit with assists from Pakistan, which                                                                                                    “it would be di cult, if not impossible, to
                                                       harbored the Taliban leadership; and from                                                                                                          separate [al-Qaeda] from its Taliban allies.”
                                                       the Trump administra on, which forced the
                                                       Afghan government of former president                                                                                                              This con nued alignment should surprise
                                                       Ashraf Ghani to release some 5,000 Taliban                                                                                                         nobody. Ever since bin Laden’s oath to
                                                       prisoners). As the Taliban rolled into Kabul                                                                                                       Mullah Omar in 1997—renewed to every
                                                       prac cally unopposed, congratula ons                                                                                                               subsequent Taliban leader—al-Qaeda has
                                                       poured in from militants around the world.                                                                                                         been in e ect a component of the Taliban’s
                                                       Even Hamas “congratulate[d] the Muslim                                                                                                             “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” The Taliban
                                                       Afghan people for the defeat of the American                                                                                                       refused to give up bin Laden in 2001, when
                                                       occupa on.”                                                                                                                                        they were on the back foot. They fought a
                                                                                                                                                                                                          war with a superpower for 20 years rather
                                                       As of this wri ng, the Taliban control all of                                                                                                      than betray al-Qaeda. Today, having won that
                                                       Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, including all the                                                                                                      war, there is no incen ve to break es.
                                                       territory held by the Northern Alliance prior
                                                       to 9/11. They are the de facto government of                                                                                                       As in the 1990s, al-Qaeda is not alone. Other
                                                       the country, and unlike last me, they are                                                                                                          foreign militant organiza ons present in the
                                                       unlikely to face many obstacles to de jure                                                                                                         country include groups of Pakistanis, Uzbeks,
                                                       recogni on. They are already in talks with a                                                                                                       Turkmens, Uighurs, and others. According to
                                                       poten al benefactor, China, which among                                                                                                            the UN team, there are around 8,000 to
                                                       other aspects of its diploma c clout can veto                                                                                                      10,000 foreign ghters in Afghanistan, and
                                                       any sanc ons regime proposed through the                                                                                                           “although the majority are a liated foremost
                                                       UN Security Council.                                                                                                                               with the Taliban, many also support Al-
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Qaida.” (An ISIS o shoot is also present,
                                                       Long before the American withdrawal, al-                                                                                                           although it frequently nds itself at
                                                       Qaeda had already returned to Afghanistan,                                                                                                         loggerheads with the Taliban.) The Taliban,
                                                       with hundreds of members across the                                                                                                                with its new geopoli cal sophis ca on, will
                                                       country, training camps and safe houses in                                                                                                         likely seek to use sympathe c terrorist
                                                       Helmand province, and a lesser presence                                                                                                            groups the way Iran does, to further its
                                                       elsewhere. The camps are large, and the                                                                                                            agenda throughout the region and beyond.
                                                       training on o er apparently covers, among                                                                                                          America’s defeat in Afghanistan plays
                                                       other things, explosives, mine-laying, and the                                                                                                     perfectly into al-Qaeda’s narra ve about
                                                       use of night vision equipment. One such                                                                                                            Western weakness: that the United States is
                                                       camp, at Shorabak near the Pakistani border,                                                                                                       a cowardly na on with no stomach for the
                                                       took 63 airstrikes and 200 U.S. ground troops                                                                                                      long war. The West will have a hard me
                                                       to dismantle—a bad omen for any U.S. policy                                                                                                        countering the resultant propaganda and
                                                       that seeks to control the al-Qaeda threat                                                                                                          recruitment bonanza. Meanwhile,
                                                       using drones and cruise missiles.                                                                                                                  Afghanistan looks like a propi ous place from
                                                                                                                                                                                                          which to (re)start a global jihad, especially
                                                       Training at these camps is reportedly being                                                                                                        with the demise of the Islamic State’s short-
                                                       provided not just to foreigners but to Taliban                                                                                                     lived empire in the Middle East and the
                                                        ghters, too, and a UN monitoring team has                                                                                                         stalemate in Syria. In some ways, in fact, it is
                                                       reported that the Taliban and al-Qaeda                                                                                                             an even more a rac ve des na on than it
                                                       “show no indica on of breaking es.” In fact,                                                                                                       was in 1996. Twenty- ve addi onal years of

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                                                con ict have ooded the country with yet                                                                                  (The nal phase is to unite the governments
                                                                                                more weaponry, while the United States has                                                                               into a worldwide caliphate, a goal which s ll
                                                                                                spent $36 billion upgrading its infrastructure                                                                           seems far o .)
                                                                                                —perfect for moving around recruits, money,
                                                                                                and weapons.                                                                                                             At this point, the West faces a lose-lose
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         situa on. To the extent that Phase Two goes
                                                                                                In June 2021, a UN report warned, not for                                                                                well, we will face an arc of instability from
                                                                                                the rst me, of al-Qaeda’s habit of “strategic                                                                            North Africa to South Asia. To the extent that
                                                                                                pa ence”—wai ng un l the me is right to                                                                                  it goes poorly, al-Qaeda has a renewed,
                                                                                                renew opera ons against the West. Today,                                                                                 reinforced base from which to launch more
                                                                                                there would appear to be li le to prevent al-                                                                            a acks.
                                                                                                Qaeda from re-establishing its external-
                                                                                                opera ons capability. Indeed, as the                                                                                     Star ng in 1996, it took al-Qaeda just ve
                                                                                                compe on for recruits in Afghanistan heats                                                                               years to build from near-ex nc on to the
                                                                                                up once more, the organiza on may again                                                                                  9/11 a acks. The crucible for its astonishing
                                                                                                come to view spectacular a acks on the West                                                                              resurrec on was a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan;
                                                                                                as an existen al necessity.                                                                                              and a crucial ingredient was American
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ina en on. The United States was a sleeping
                                                                                                Long before 9/11, we knew al-Qaeda's long-                                                                               giant, viewing al-Qaeda as li le more than a
                                                                                                term plan. In the mid-1990s, it was neatly                                                                               nuisance and devo ng so li le a en on to
                                                                                                summarized in a tract called The                                                                                         the problem that the eventual hijackers were
                                                                                                Management of Savagery, based by analogy                                                                                 allowed to pass unhindered through U.S.
                                                                                                on a simplis c concep on of how Germanic                                                                                 border control mul ple mes, even as they
                                                                                                tribes (“savages”) weakened and eventually                                                                               prepared to murder thousands of American
                                                                                                overran the Roman Empire.                                                                                                civilians. In the months and years to come,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         the West will be tempted to repeat its
                                                                                                Phase One was to create power vacuums by                                                                                 mistake, ignoring Afghanistan as a lost cause.
                                                                                                expelling the United States from the Muslim                                                                              It must resist this tempta on. Especially with
                                                                                                world. That work is now all but complete.                                                                                its military forces pulled back, its diploma c,
                                                                                                America enjoys li le in uence in Libya, Syria,                                                                           economic, intelligence, and law enforcement
                                                                                                Yemen, Iran, and now Afghanistan. In fact, 20                                                                            apparatus must remain hypervigilant against
                                                                                                years a er the so-called “War on Terror,” and                                                                            yet another global terrorist reboot.
                                                                                                 ve trillion dollars later, the United States
                                                                                                does not even have embassies in any of these
                                                                                                countries. It demonstrably cannot control its
                                                                                                nominal allies in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and
                                                                                                Pakistan. In Iraq, it is forced to tolerate
                                                                                                elected poli cal leaders who aunt their
                                                                                                membership in Iranian-controlled mili as,
                                                                                                some of which Washington has dubbed
                                                                                                terrorist groups.

                                                                                                With the United States in retreat across the
                                                                                                region, al-Qaeda will now move to Phase
                                                                                                Two: eventually lling those power vacuums
                                                                                                with en es based on the Taliban model.

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THE ROAD TO 9/11 AND THE DANGERS AHEAD

                                                                                                 RECOMMENDATIONS
                                                                                          1. Al-Qaeda’s strategy has been to exploit                                           3. Frontline o cials proved key to
                                                                                             con ict and chaos, and ll the vacuum                                                 iden fying and mi ga ng threats. States
                                                                                             le by na onal and interna onal                                                       and interna onal organiza ons should
                                                                                             a en on; it is therefore essen al to                                                 redouble e orts to strengthen capaci es
                                                                                             deploy all levers of government –                                                    of frontline o cials including those who
                                                                                             including development assistance,                                                    work at borders, travel and nancial
                                                                                             cultural and educa onal opportuni es,                                                ins tu ons, for example.
                                                                                             diploma c and policy tools – to address
                                                                                             the condi ons in which terrorism thrives                                          4. Declassifying relevant documents to
                                                                                             and terrorists nd their recruits.                                                    allow survivors and analysts to be er
                                                                                                                                                                                  understand the rela onships between
                                                                                          2. The United States should not diminish                                                key players leading up to the a acks,
                                                                                             a en on to counterterrorism and                                                      such as those alleged between the
                                                                                             Afghanistan to pursue “great power                                                   hijackers and the government of Saudi
                                                                                             compe on”; the two are not mutually                                                  Arabia, and hold states accountable for
                                                                                             exclusive and state and non-state                                                    their ac ons.
                                                                                             adversaries are likely to bene t from
                                                                                             American ina en on.

                                                                                          Militiamen Loyal to Ahmad Massoud in a Training Exercise in Panjshir Province, Aug. 2021

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