VOL15NO6 | JUN2018 - STELLENBOSCH UNIVERSITY
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Vol 15 No 6 | Jun 2018
: +27 (0)21 918 4144
@: future@ifr.sun.ac.za
Publication of:
Institute for Futures Research
Stellenbosch University
PO Box 2010
BELLVILLE
7535
Word processing and formatting:
Karen TheronEditorial
The kind of future we want, and strive for, says a lot about us. This may seem self-evident, but how
much time do we really spend thinking about the future we want to create? Moreover, how much time
do we spend creating our desired future, compared to the time we spend being reactive, focusing on
non-value-adding activities or trying to please the powers that be?
Imagine stacking up our corporate or organisational hours in piles. These would be marked for reporting
on the past, dealing with the demands of the now, and considering and creating the future we want.
Intuitively, for most organisations, the bulk of our time would go to the first two columns. Financial re-
porting by its nature is backward looking, and so are management reports and performance reviews.
The demands of dealing with the ‘now’ leaves only a meagre sliver of time to allocate to the future.
But if you could consciously choose where your hours are stacked, how would you change the picture?
While understanding the past is non-negotiable for charting the future, we also need to understand that
management reports, in the absence of a clear strategy to make changes and achieve a better future,
are not going to deliver the improvements to keep our organisations on track. Reporting, in isolation of
action, only provides a false sense of comfort. So does doing the wrong things, even if you do them
more efficiently than anyone else.
Neither a wise man nor a brave man lies down on the tracks of history to wait for the train of the
future to run over him. - Dwight D. Eisenhower
The best way to predict the future is to create it. - Peter Drucker
The future is best experienced as an active destination. While it is true that the future is bound to arrive
despite what we do, it is also true that the future we arrive at is decisively influenced by our actions and
decisions in both the past and present.
The monthly Scan@IFR publication is an opportunity to peek ahead at what the future holds, to consider
what these developments mean and to ask what the impact will be on your business. More importantly,
it needs to be your organisational talking point for the future you want to create for your business given
the dots on the horizon.
In this edition
Food business for the near future highlights emerging trends in the near-future of food production
and consumption preferences, including a preference for shorter food supply chains. Precision agri-
culture coming to a farm near you highlights how the entire food production system is changing in
response to new technologies that have the ability to impact our systems in deep-seated and funda-
mental ways, and to disrupt some of our most established industries.
Change of any kind is sure to disrupt and challenge the way we structure our societies. Several of the
articles in this month’s edition highlight these societal impacts. A place to call home and Foreigners
as targets both highlight the position of migrants and foreigners in our societies. Digital nomads, the
already occurring future of work consequence offers a unique peek into the digitally savvy subset of
the population who uses the Fourth Industrial Revolution as a stepping stone to a borderless work en-
vironment. But despite their educational status or skills level, digital nomads are still migrants who may
also come under pressure from the issues highlighted in the first two articles.
Adolescent mental health deserves to be on our agenda highlights the importance of teenage mental
health issues and argues that there are several layers of benefits to be had by targeting the issue head-
on.
iWhen it comes to keeping abreast of the trends that are shaping our societies – and our consumers –
Practicing foresight through social monitoring, listening, intelligence and prediction reminds us
of the importance of using the information sources at our disposal intelligently.
Recent news on our environmental futures has not been positive. The war on plastic pollution is just
beginning points out that we need to move beyond the old ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ narrative if we are
to successfully combat plastic pollution. It looks like we’ve blown our chances to meet the Paris
climate targets – now what? takes a step back to consider our options when it comes to creating our
desired futures now that it seems increasingly likely that we will miss our climate change-mitigation
targets.
This edition is certainly filled with new insights to help you quantify the impact of future trends on your
business. Designing your desired future – and devising the strategy to make it a reality – is up to you.
Here’s to the future!
Adri Saayman
Research Associate: Institute for Futures Research
Disclaimer: Our researchers and scanners occasionally include hyperlinks to articles that require addi-
tional action, such as information or subscription for access. While we endeavour to keep such hyper-
links to a minimum, we offer these links in the interest of a broad perspective – the very nature and spirit
of a scan.
iiNew World of Business
Food business for the near future
With the Northern Hemisphere summer in full swing, a number of articles and reports on food trends
were published recently.
The EU farmers’ association, Copa-Cogeca, estimates that on average 51% of the share of an agricul-
tural product goes to retailers, 28% to processors and only 21% to farmers. They seek to correct this
imbalance in the food supply chain through a drive for shorter food supply chains (SFSC) and the de-
regulation of markets. In Austria, 27% of farms are selling directly to consumers already, while in France
the number is steadily increasing. The main drivers behind the SFSC drive are fairer remuneration for
producers, fresher and less processed food for consumers and a smaller carbon footprint through the
whole chain.
Vertical farming is on the increase in urban areas. It supports the drive for shorter food supply chains
where food does not have to be processed or engineered to prevent spoilage while being transported,
stored or displayed through a long path from producer to consumer. Vertical farms come with the added
benefit of being very water efficient.
In the global beverage market, we see trends toward lower calories, lower alcohol content, single serv-
ings and unique flavours. Coca-Cola is launching a lemon-flavoured, transparent, zero-calorie drink
without caramel colouring in Japan, while 30 countries of the world will see Vita Coco launching a col-
lection of sparkling coconut water with 280 mg of the electrolyte potassium, only 25 calories and no
added sugar. Interesting products introduced in the alcoholic beverage market include new drinks made
from hemp milk, sparkling wine in single-serve aluminium cans, and sparkling water spiked with tequila
in ready-to-drink (RTD) cans.
Food products for niche markets are catching the attention of producers. There is a surge in products
for vegan and vegetarian barbeques, being driven by the increasing numbers of flexitarians that drasti-
cally reduce their meat intake. Products that claim to support wellness, because they contain ingredients
that mitigate age-related problems, are rising in popularity.
How do these trends impact the South African market? The trend towards shorter food supply chains in
Europe may hamper South African producers’ access to their market, while vertical farming opens new
opportunities for local urban dwellers. Consumers seeking new flavours and combinations in the global
beverage market may offer opportunities for South African producers to experiment with and introduce
global palates to our unique local flavours.
10 Global food and beverage trends transforming the Thai market. L Wan. Food Navigator Asia,
25 Jun 2018.
https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2018/06/25/10-global-food-and-beverage-trends-trans-
forming-the-Thai-market
Commission throws the ball to EU capitals on future of short food chains. S Michalopoulos.
EURACTIV, 25 Jun 2018.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/commission-throws-the-ball-to-eu-member-
states-on-future-of-short-food-chains/
Emergency foods in Japan turn up the taste. W Suzuki. Nikkei, 25 Jun 2018.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Emergency-foods-in-Japan-turn-up-the-taste
1Patent, trademark trends and healthy aging. A Baltatzis & G Eckhouse. Natural Products Insider,
22 Jun 2018.
https://www.naturalproductsinsider.com/branding-marketing/patent-trademark-trends-healthy-aging
Seven tech trends that will destroy globalization. P Yared. CNBC, 8 Jun 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/08/tech-trends-that-will-destroy-globalization-commentary.html
Vegan barbeque tops list of summer food trends for 2018. M Chiorando. Plant Based News, 21
Jun 2018.
https://www.plantbasednews.org/post/vegan-barbecue-tops-list-of-summer-food-trends-for-2018
What’s hitting the shelves? New products: June. R Arthur. Beverage Daily, 25 Jun 2018.
https://www.beveragedaily.com/Article/2018/06/25/New-product-launches-June-2018
Social Capital
Are we seeing the resurgence of the humanities?
Have we made a mistake focusing on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) de-
grees at the expense of the humanities? Since the Second World War, a degree in natural sciences or
engineering has been seen as the way to secure your future in the job market. But ironically, as the
Fourth Industrial Revolution progresses, the benefits of an education in the humanities are coming to
the fore.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is seeing a decrease in the jobs that primarily require physical and
manual labour and the use of basic cognitive skills (numeracy and literacy skills, like those used by
cashiers). Along with the demand for technological skills (advanced data analysis, IT, research and
engineering skills), the demand for higher cognitive skills (statistical analysis, writing, critical thinking
and complex information processing) and social and emotional skills (soft skills, like negotiation, empa-
thy, continuous learning and adaptability) is also predicted to increase. Some commentators argue that
technology is becoming so intuitive that many tasks can be accomplished without advanced program-
ming skill. This means high-end technology skills may not be as sought-after in future.
These factors have thrust skills like communication, observation, empathy and logical thinking to the
fore. The ability to work in a diverse environment, complex problem solving, coordination and active
listening are also necessary to succeed, as is the ability to exercise judgement and manage people and
resources effectively.
Many of these skills, it is argued, is best learned in the humanities, which can be seen as becoming a
foundational skill that is needed to underpin STEM degrees in the future. After many decades of being
the step-child in academic circles, could it be that we are about to see a resurgence in the humanities?
How a humanities degree will serve you in a disruptive economy. A Moro. The Conversation, 5
Jun 2081.
https://theconversation.com/how-a-humanities-degree-will-serve-you-in-a-disruptive-economy-97530
Humanities must step up to the next platform of scholarship. J Damousi. The Australian, 13 Jun
2018.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/opinion/humanities-must-step-up-to-the-next-plat-
form-of-scholarship/news-story/fe7dbb45602032b3c5df032a96e24b22
2The most dangerous and misunderstood threat to humanity is the human mind. N Barr & G Pen-
nycook. Quartz, 15 Jun 2018.
https://qz.com/1306065/the-most-dangerous-and-misunderstood-threat-to-humanity-is-the-human-
mind/
The 3 key skill sets for the workers of 2030. A Jezard. World Economic Forum, 1 Jun 2018.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/the-3-skill-sets-workers-need-to-develop-between-now-and-
2030
Why studying the humanities is just as important as science. World Economic Forum.
https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155404489011479/
Why tech needs the humanities. E Berridge. Tech Talk, Dec 2017.
https://www.ted.com/talks/eric_berridge_why_tech_needs_the_humanities
STEM may be the future – but liberal arts are timeless. T Marshall. Quartz. 27 Feb 2018.
https://qz.com/1215910/stem-may-be-the-future-but-liberal-arts-are-timeless/
A place to call home
The Economist recently asked: ‘Should people be free to choose the country in which they live?’ The
world is currently dealing with a myriad of immigration and refugee issues, and it does not promise to
end any time soon. Some people argue that opening a country’s borders threatens the safety and se-
curity (and economy) of the receiving country. Others feel that people are not supposed to live in poverty
and fear simply because they were born in a specific country, but should have the right to choose an-
other country of residence. The US policy (recently overturned) to separate children from migrant par-
ents at the borders caused an international outcry from political leaders, civil society and religious
groups.
South Africa is home to about 3.1m migrants (United Nations). The increase in the population (from
immigrants) has a similar effect on the economy as a standard increase in the population. The migrants
contribute to the economy with their wants and needs, generally increasing the size of the economy.
Not all of them are able to contribute substantially to tax revenues as many are low wage earners or
poor. However, the more people working and contributing to the economy, the better.
Europe has seen a large increase in refugees seeking asylum and a better life. This has (presumably)
given rise to right wing politics in many countries. But the refugees and migrants could address and
mitigate the challenge of Europe’s aging population.
The abolishment of slavery, eradication of colonisation and the institution of human rights laws have
done much to ensure equality for people around the world, but borders are creating restrictions on the
freedom of movement. Borders serve as walls to keep people in and out. As modern inhabitants of our
planet, we are working together to create a sustainable future for ourselves and future generations. We
have embraced multi-culturalism, and in many countries, like South Africa, we thrive because of our
diversity. Is it time to open borders everywhere and embrace true global citizenship?
The people of South Africa desperately need economic growth to facilitate wealth creation in order to
help lift them out of poverty and to aid their rise and transition to middle class living. Migrants have the
ability to create new job opportunities, and furthermore assist local businesses to increase their turno-
vers with their buying power. South Africans can choose to embrace immigrants, work together and
create a beneficial future for all, or they can choose to ignore the opportunity to establish a cooperative
African experience.
Asylum Seekers Are Boosting Europe's Economies, Study Says. S Malo. Global Citizen, 21 Jun
2018.
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/asylum-seekers-boost-europe-economies/
3‘Dodging the bullets was like going to hell but I had to save my children’. M Awoke. World Food
Programme Insight, 5 Jun 2018.
https://insight.wfp.org/dodging-the-bullets-was-like-going-to-hell-but-i-had-to-save-my-children-
b41483c7a45f
Do immigrants 'steal' jobs in SA? What the data tells us. Fin24, 19 Sep 2017.
https://www.fin24.com/Economy/do-immigrants-steal-jobs-in-sa-what-the-data-tells-us-20170919
European Countries Are About to Decide the Future for Vulnerable Refugees. And No One's
Talking About It. I Calderwood. Global Citizen, 19 Jun 2018.
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/european-countries-world-refugee-day-resettlement/
Migrants Are on the Rise Around the World, and Myths About them Are Shaping Attitudes. New
York Times, Jun 2018.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/20/business/economy/immigration-economic-impact.html
Should people be free to choose the country in which they live? The Economist, 18-25 Jun 2018.
https://debates.economist.com/debate/immigration
UN data on South Africa – Social Indicators.
http://data.un.org/en/iso/za.html
US migrant children policy reversal, still ‘fails’ thousands of detained youngsters: UN rights ex-
perts. UN News, 22 Jun 2018.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1012832
Local cryptocurrency as potential economy booster in the future
A worldwide pushback against globalisation has again highlighted the significance of some local eco-
nomic innovations. One example is the use of localised currencies. These currencies, which have been
used for ages, can be spent at participating organisations in a particular geographical locality.
One modern uptake on such currencies is an endeavour by a Russian banker turned farmer in the
farming village of Kolionovo near Moscow. Mikhail Shlyapnikov created the kolion as a local cryptocur-
rency in the village. He actually started issuing paper kolion in 2014, but they were banned by a Russian
court in 2015. So he started working on a cryptocurrency version, and in April 2017 raised US$ 500 000
in an initial coin offering (ICO).
Shlyapnikov has convinced around a hundred local farmers and suppliers in nearby towns and villages
to use the kolion, making paper roubles a rare site in this area. According to Shlyapnikov, there are
around US$ 2m kolion in circulation, and the coin’s price has increased since the ICO.
In contrast to bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies, which can be earned via mining with a computer,
kolion does not use this method. The tokens can be purchased via exchanges using other popular cryp-
tocurrencies or earned by helping residents of Kolionovo with construction or farming work, a process
known as ‘ploughing’.
Russia's economy has returned to growth after being hit by both plummeting oil prices and Western
sanctions, which resulted in the rouble losing half its value since 2014. Now Shlyapnikov and other
enthusiasts are pushing cryptocurrency as a way to insulate them from Russia's financial system. Cryp-
tocurrencies have boomed in the country thanks to good quality scientific and technical education and
some of the cheapest electricity in Europe to power the servers needed to mine them.
The emerging industry awaits regulations that President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Finance Ministry
to introduce by July. First drafts of the measures suggest that the rouble will remain the only legal form
of payment but ICOs and mining will be granted some legal protection. President Putin stated earlier in
42018 he wanted Russia to become more open to innovation, warning that ‘those who ride the techno-
logical wave will advance, others will drown’.
Russia might be an interesting case study in terms of local cryptocurrencies but other developments in
this regard should also be noted. In 2017, it was announced that work was started to create an ‘e-ora’
which will be the electronic version of the ora, which is the ‘local currency’ of Orania in Northern Cape.
The town of about 1 400 people adopted its own paper money, the ora, in 2004 to promote self-suffi-
ciency. It works as a local coupons system with the aim to promote local spending.
Many countries – including Uruguay, Chile and Kazakhstan – are actively investigating regulations re-
garding cryptocurrencies with the aim to promote their potential for innovative implementation. In the
longer run, such developments raise profound issues of an emerging spontaneous social order, in par-
ticular, the prospect of a crypto-anarchic society in which there is no longer any government role in the
monetary system and, potentially, no government at all.
The development of local cryptocurrencies also come with certain risks. Cryptocurrency is difficult to
regulate and enforce, threatening longstanding monetary systems and governments. The societal im-
pact of technologies might not always be what we expect. This trend will create new risks, but potentially
also new opportunities for the future.
Small business merchants especially could embrace local cryptocurrency, opening trade and business
beyond cash transactions, bypassing transaction fees and exchange rates. This might also assist de-
mocratisation, creating micro communities taking charge of their own future by establishing individual
free market ecosystems. However, this must not be used as an instrument to protect privilege and en-
hance inequality in the broader society.
A farm outside of Moscow gets a new chance at life in the crypto zone. A Ter-Gazaryan. Russia
Beyond, 26 May 2017.
https://www.rbth.com/science_and_tech/2017/05/26/a-farm-outside-of-moscow-gets-a-new-chance-at-
life-in-the-crypto-zone_771110
Orania wants its own Bitcoin. eNCA. 16 Jul 2017.
http://www.enca.com/south-africa/orania-eyes-move-to-e-cash
Russian town adopts its own cryptocurrency to replace Ruble. M Hrones, Bitcoinist, 6 Jun 2018.
https://bitcoinist.com/russian-town-adopts-cryptocurrency-replace-ruble/
Russian farmers are ditching the ruble for a new cryptocurrency. M Ilyushina. CNN Money, 4 Jun
2018.
http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/04/technology/russia-cryptocurrency-farmer-kolion/index.html
The Saber Case: How complementary currencies can go crypto and change the world. S O'Neal.
Cointelegraph, 2 Apr 2018.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-saber-case-how-complementary-currencies-can-go-crypto-and-
change-the-world
Uruguay to develop crypto regulations, focusing on Innovation. A Alexandre. Cointelegraph, 20
Jun 2018.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/uruguay-to-develop-crypto-regulations-focusing-on-innovation
Adolescent mental health deserves to be on our agenda
Already in 2016, the notion of a triple dividend from the investment in the health and well-being of adoles-
cents was coined by The Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Wellbeing. The triple dividend, to
adolescents and society, are the direct health benefits to them during their adolescent years, followed by
improved health and well-being during their adult years and, finally, as the parents of the next generation,
resulting in a positive impact on their children. The World Health Organization (WHO) defines adolescents
5as those between the ages of 10 and 19 in its report, Global Accelerated Action for the Health of Adoles-
cents (AA-HA!), which echoes many of the points made by The Lancet Commission.
In the WHO report, the United Nations Secretary-General said that attending to the health and well-
being of these youngsters, who represent at 1.2bn, or one-sixth of the global population, ‘[is] central to
everything we want to achieve, and to the overall success of the 2030 Agenda’. Although the report
deals extensively with all aspects of adolescent health, it is the fact that half of the mental disorders in
adults have their origins from the age of 14 that begs further elaboration.
Global mental health has recently received renewed attention with the tragic suicides of renowned fash-
ion designer Kate Spade and celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain. Despite the WHO endorsing the mantra
‘there is no health without mental health’ as far back as 2005, subject-matter experts have been lament-
ing that to date, not enough has been done to lessen the cost of mental disorders to humans and society.
The World Economic Forum calculates this cost to the global economy at about $1 trillion per annum,
as a result of the estimated productivity loss.
Closer to home, through the advocacy of Professor Crick Lund, mental health across the African conti-
nent has also been under the spotlight. Based on his research he argues that mental health, in the
African and South African contexts, takes on an additional level of urgency. Not only are the social and
cultural aspects of psychological health immensely complex in a country such as South Africa, but the
studies done by Lund and his colleagues have unequivocally established direct links between poverty
and mental illness. He further points out that, given the criticality of their development phase to the rest
of their productive lives, the mental health risks that young adults and adolescents face, and are sus-
ceptible to, should not be ignored.
In a study of adolescents across the Cape Metropolitan area, Das-Munshi et al. found that 41% of the
respondents suffer from some form of depression, 16% from anxiety and 21% from post-traumatic stress
disorder, with a strong predisposal towards adolescents from previously disadvantaged demographics.
This dire state of local affairs, viewed in conjunction with the latest youth unemployment figures released
by Statistics SA (Q1: 2018, 38.2%), supports the call to action by Lund and his fellow mental health
advocates for the urgent implementation of the dust-covered 2013 National Mental Health Policy Frame-
work and improved allocation of resources to mental health initiatives. Failing this, says Lund, ‘young
people are really left to their own basically…’
South Africa’s current 10.3m adolescents are the workforce of the future. If this country wants to capi-
talise on the triple dividend derived from an investment in the health and well-being of this cohort, espe-
cially their mental health, there can be no waiting for the full implementation of South African National
Health Insurance (NHI). The Bill, which is now open for comment, and the full implementation of the
scheme, is still approximately eight or more years away. With an estimated 10-fold economic benefit
that can be derived by an investment in adolescent health and well-being, stakeholders from national
government, civil society and business can hardly afford to forego this opportunity.
Adolescents: health risks and solutions. World Health Organization, 5 Feb 2018.
http://www.who.int/en/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/adolescents-health-risks-and-solutions
By Limiting Access To Treatment, Poverty Exacerbates Mental Illness. M Ntsabo. The Daily Vox,
13 Jan 2018.
https://www.thedailyvox.co.za/by-limiting-access-to-treatment-poverty-exacerbates-mental-illness-
mihlali-ntsabo/
Depression is the no. 1 cause of ill health and disability worldwide. A Jezard. World Economic
Forum, 18 May 2018.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/depression-prevents-many-of-us-from-leading-healthy-and-
productive-lives-being-the-no-1-cause-of-ill-health-and-disability-worldwide
Global Accelerated Action for the Health of Adolescents (AA-HA!): guidance to support country
implementation. World Health Organization, May 2017.
http://www.who.int/maternal_child_adolescent/topics/adolescence/framework-accelerated-action/en/
6Mental Health and the Global Agenda. A Becker & A Kleinman. The New England Journal of
Medicine, 4 Jul 2013.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra1110827
Mental health: facing the challenges, building solutions. World Health Organization, 2005.
http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/noncommunicable-diseases/mental-health/publica-
tions/2005/mental-health-facing-the-challenges,-building-solutions
Making a case for investing in mental health. Yiba.co.za, 31 May 2018.
https://yiba.co.za/making-a-case-for-investing-in-mental-health/
Mental Health Inequalities in Adolescents Growing Up in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Cross-
Sectional Survey, SHaW Study. Das-Munshi et al. OpenUCT, 3 May 2016.
https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/22347
NHI looms: bills open for comment. K Khumalo. IOL, 23 Jun 2018.
https://www.iol.co.za/personal-finance/nhi-looms-bills-open-for-comment-15648316
Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100 – South Africa 2017. populationpyramid.net.
https://www.populationpyramid.net/south-africa/2017/
The Lancet: Investing in adolescent health and education could bring 10-fold economic benefit.
Eurekalert.org, 19 Apr 2017.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-04/tl-tli041817.php
Want more people to get help? Make mental healthcare more affordable. A Perovic. The Guard-
ian, 13 Jun 2018.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/13/want-more-people-to-get-help-make-mental-
healthcare-more-affordable
Youth unemployment still high in Q1: 2018. Statistics SA, 15 May 2018.
http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=11129
Sustainability
It looks like we’ve blown our chances to meet the Paris climate targets – now what?
There is a growing realisation that climate change is accelerating and that we are likely to exceed the
aim of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5°C (and possibly also miss the 2°C upper-level target)
enshrined the Paris climate change agreement.
A recent report found global temperatures have already increased by 1°C and are increasing at a rate
of about 0.2°C per decade. Recently, we also heard that Antarctica’s ice sheet was melting much faster
than previously reported, and that ice loss is speeding up. It is estimated that between 1992 and 2017,
3 trillion tons of ice was already lost – equivalent to a sea-level rise of 8mm.
As the effects of climate change start to exert a real and tangible effect on the world, limiting carbon
emissions is likely to be a growing focus around the world. Recently, we have seen the state of Hawaii
in the USA pass legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, while the Carbon Neutral Coalition is encour-
aging cities, countries and companies to aim for carbon neutrality.
7How we will go about doing this, remains a challenge, with many efforts having unintended conse-
quences of their own. For example, burning wood is considered carbon neutral in the EU. This has
sparked a sharp increase of the use of wood pellets to generate electricity. Because of the carbon
neutrality assigned to wood as an energy source, this enables the EU to meet its emission targets,
spurring them to use 80% of the world’s wood pellets in 2015 (the bulk of which is produced in the USA).
This comes with sizable transport costs. Also, it is estimated that this contributes 25% of the total carbon
emissions associated with biomass energy in Europe. With the carbon neutrality of wood as a fuel
source already under debate, it is not clear how sustainable this strategy is in the long run. Alternatives
would need to be considered.
Furthermore, there are indications that we could reach a tipping point beyond which it would only be
possible to reverse the effects of global warming if we directly remove carbon dioxide from the atmos-
phere, and where merely limiting increases, or being carbon neutral, would no longer be enough.
Therefore, recent news that the cost of carbon capture may have been grossly over-estimated in the past,
making it feasible to directly capture carbon from the air, has been making headlines. While previous
estimates put the cost of carbon capture at $1 000 per ton, a new study sets an upper limit of $232 and a
lower limit of $94. The company responsible for the new technology intends to use the captured carbon
dioxide to create carbon-neutral fuel by combining the carbon with hydrogen. The feasibility of successfully
adapting this technology for large-scale production, however, still needs to be proven.
The race is on to find new technologies to help us meet the climate change challenges ahead. As the
costs of climate change starts to mount, it remains to be seen if we will become desperate enough to
employ morally ambivalent technologies like geo-engineering to address the problem. Geo-engineering
involves intentionally altering the earth’s climate – a process, it is argued, we understand too poorly to
use at scale. It could have disastrous unintended and irreversible consequences – yet its proponents
believe it could buy us time when we have exhausted all other options.
Of course, just changing our business models by embracing the circular economy might be a safer, and
more sustainable approach to mitigating our climate change challenges. Recently, a study by the Finnish
Innovation Fund Sitra and the European Foundation estimated that embracing the principles behind the
circular economy in the EU could contribute to halving industrial emissions by 2050. With its focus on
improved design, extending product lifespans and reusing materials, circular business models mean we
become much more efficient and less resource intensive. This could put us in a far better position to
meet our targets, especially when combined with other efforts and the use of renewable energy sources,
despite the current challenges.
Antarctic Melt Rate Has Tripled in the Last 25 Years. C Harvey. Scientific American, 14 Jun 2018.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/antarctic-melt-rate-has-tripled-in-the-last-25-years/
Circular Economy Is Crucial to Paris Goals – Study. United Nations Climate Change, 6 Jun 2018.
https://unfccc.int/news/circular-economy-is-crucial-to-paris-goals-study
Cheap Carbon Capture Technology Might Make Our Climate Goals Possible. D Robitzski. Futur-
ism, 8 Jun 2018.
https://futurism.com/cheap-carbon-capture-technology-might-make-our-climate-goals-possible/
Hawaii just passed a law to make the state carbon neutral by 2045. A Peters. Fast Company, 4
Jun 2018.
https://www.fastcompany.com/40580669/hawaii-just-passed-a-law-to-make-the-state-carbon-neutral-
by-2045
Geoengineering: The quick, and potentially catastrophic, fix for climate change. M Dulaney. ABC
News, 4 Jun 2018.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/geoengineering-the-risky-fix-climate-change/9822022
8Maybe we can afford to suck CO2 out of the sky after all. J Temple. Technology Review, 7 Jun
2018.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611369/maybe-we-can-afford-to-suck-cosub2sub-out-of-the-sky-
after-all/
Only ‘rapid and far-reaching’ changes will stop global warming exceeding 1.5C target by 2040,
leaked UN report reveals. J Gabbatiss. Independent, 16 Jun 2018.
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-paris-agreement-global-warming-temper-
ature-un-report-ipcc-a8400506.html
Summary of the Paris Agreement. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change.
UNFCCC eHandbook.
http://bigpicture.unfccc.int/#content-the-paris-agreemen
There's a Huge Problem With US And EU Claims That Wood Burning Is "Carbon Neutral". C
Cassella. Science Alert, 15 Jun 2018.
https://www.sciencealert.com/us-europe-labels-burning-forest-biomass-wood-carbon-neutral-renewa-
ble
This Gasoline Is Made of Carbon Sucked From the Air. S Leahy. National Geographic, 7 Jun 2018.
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/carbon-engineering-liquid-fuel-carbon-capture-neutral-
science/
We CAN build a carbon-neutral world by 2050. Here's how. E Farnworth. World Economic Forum,
4 Jun 2018.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/the-world-will-be-carbon-neutral-by-2050-but-at-what-cost/
The war on plastic pollution is just beginning
Plastic pollution has become a serious global crisis affecting various ecosystems. It is estimated that
over 8m tonnes of plastic enter the oceans each year and more than 600 marine species are harmed
by plastic waste; by weight there will be more plastic than fish in the ocean by 2050. Particular worrying
in terms of this growing plastic pollution is single-use plastic items such as grocery bags, straws, cotton
buds, cigarette butts, plastic drinking bottles and bottle caps. Fortunately, many countries are moving
forward with compulsory recycling and/or banning of many single-use plastic items altogether.
In South Africa, the rate of plastic recycling is estimated at only about 41.8%, which together with in-
creasing plastic pollution indicates that as a country we are not doing enough yet. Johannesburg, which
is at serious risk of running out of landfill space, has recently announced that it will become the first city
with compulsory recycling. While this is a great step in the direction towards curbing plastic pollution,
other cities will need to follow suit, and much work remains to be done to educate residents about the
importance of recycling. Globally, a significant effort is being made to limit the use of single-use plastics
in the first place. Over 60 countries have banned or placed levies on various single-use plastics. In
Africa, for example, 50% of all territories have placed restrictions on plastic bags. Further afield, the EU
is currently discussing an EU-wide ban of most single-use plastics, which will be coupled with an in-
creasing drive to collect and recycle other plastics, such as plastic bottles.
On 1 July 2018 a ban on single-use plastic bags will come into effect in Queensland, Australia. Some
retailers there are taking a more proactive approach by removing plastic grocery bags from their shops
nationwide. Similarly, in South Africa, a few retailers are also going beyond what is legally required of
them. To create awareness around plastic pollution Spar recently ran a campaign where ten plastic bags
could be swapped for a reusable paper bag. Woolworths has announced that it aims to go without plastic
grocery bags and other single-use plastics, such as cutlery and straws, by 2022.
There are indications that around the world recycling and plastic saving measures are becoming in-
creasingly popular. For example, a recent Australian survey showed that 71% of those surveyed support
the plastic bag ban mentioned above. A further indication of this is how communities and individuals are
9thinking of innovative ways to diminish plastic waste. To limit the waste produced by straws, 500m of
which are used in the USA alone every single day, campaigns are being run to replace these with any-
thing from paper straws to stainless steel straws and even pasta straws. Back here in South Africa, a
different but equally innovative way to deal with plastic waste is the eco-brick. Eco-bricks are made of
shrink-wrapped plastic drinking bottles filled with small pieces of plastic waste. These bottles need to
have a certain minimum weight. Therefore, people need to fill them with as much waste as possible
before dropping them off at a central location from where they can be utilised in construction projects.
While these initiatives and developments are encouraging, and have the ability to drastically improve
our environment, it needs to be said that this alone will never be able to address the magnitude of the
plastic waste challenge our planet is faced with. These initiatives and campaigns against visible plastic
pollution should be seen as the low-hanging fruit – the beginning of the war against plastic pollution.
Micro- and nano-plastics from industrial pellets and the degradation of larger plastic pieces, micro-beads
in personal care products, and micro- and nano-fibres from clothing items have seeped into our water
supplies and into the food chain where they could cause serious health risks. To prevent irreversible
environmental damage resulting from these types of plastics, immediate and aggressive action is
needed. It starts with consumer education about what goods contain micro plastics and it goes beyond
the old ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ narrative.
EU proposes ban on single-use plastics. Business Day, 28 May 2018.
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/europe/2018-05-28-eu-proposes-ban-on-single-use-plastics/
Hoedspruit: Take a stand against single-use plastics. B Coetzee. Letaba Herald, 17 Jun 2018.
https://letabaherald.co.za/53557/hoedspruit-take-stand-single-use-plastics/
‘If you can’t re-use it‚ refuse it’ – advice for Joburg residents as recycling becomes compulsory.
T Mpembe. Times Live, 14 Jun 2018.
https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2018-06-14-if-you-cant-re-use-it-refuse-it--advice-for-
joburg-residents-as-recycling-becomes-compulsory-from-july-1/
New study reveals global plans to curb single-use plastic pollution. A Schwartz. Mail & Guardian,
5 Jun 2018.
https://mg.co.za/article/2018-06-05-new-study-reveals-global-plans-to-curb-single-use-plastic-pollution
Plastic bag ban wins overwhelming support. F Chung. news.com.au, 18 Jun 2018.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/plastic-bag-ban-wins-overwhelming-support/news-
story/abcd0a8f74e1666a1278a805d105126d
Plastic straws are on their way out — these green alternatives are the best way to drink this
summer. K Bratskeir. Mic, 7 Jun 2018.
https://mic.com/articles/189699/plastic-straws-are-on-their-way-out-these-green-alternatives-are-the-
best-way-to-drink-this-summer#.lpWbLu7xV
There’s much more to the plastic pollution crisis than carrier bags. N Kalebaila. Mail & Guardian,
6 Jun 2018.
https://mg.co.za/article/2018-06-06-00-theres-much-more-to-the-plastic-pollution-crisis-than-carrier-
bags
Woolworths says goodbye to plastic, but it will take time. D Alfreds. News 24, 6 Jun 2018.
https://www.news24.com/Green/News/woolworths-says-goodbye-to-plastic-but-it-will-take-time-
20180606
10Security
Muslim extremism in South and Southern Africa?
On the afternoon of Thursday, 10 May 2018, two or three men attacked the Imam Hussein mosque in
Ottowa, near Verulam, in the province of KwaZulu-Natal. A library containing Qur’ans and other holy
texts was set alight, as was a relic room. The attack is seen by some as a struggle between the Sunni
and Shi’a Muslims, which date back 1 300 years. The Shi’a Muslims form a small portion of Muslims in
South Africa.
The perception has always been that Sunni and Shi’a populations in South Africa get on remarkably
peacefully compared to the rest of the world. However, this does not seem to be totally true. Local
groups calling themselves Islamic Awakening, Ahlus Sunnah Defence League and Darul Islam Task
Team have previously disseminated inflammatory statements about Shi’as. They have called for Shi’a
Muslims to be banned from Muslim graveyards and barred from marrying Sunnis, for Shi’a-owned res-
taurants to be prevented from attaining halaal certification, and for Shi’a children to be potentially pro-
hibited from attending Islamic schools. These appear to be fringe groups, but more mainstream bodies
have, in the recent past, expressed similar views.
Many people agree that the attack cannot be attributed to the age-old feud between Shi’as and Sunnis.
Other theories vary from a mistaken assassination attempt, to agent provocateurs trying to divide the
Muslim community in terms of what is happening in Palestine. According to the Hawks, there were
elements of extremism in the attack.
On 14 June 2018, two worshippers were stabbed to death and two others were injured in an attack at a
mosque in Malmesbury, in the Western Cape. The assailant was shot dead by police after he apparently
tried to attack officers. The attacker was a Somali, and apparently had a history of mental illness. Until
recently (at the time of writing), the police have still not yet determined the motives for the killings.
These attacks could be totally unrelated. They probably are. What is a source of concern, is that we are
not just seeing this form of religious intolerance here in South Africa. In the northeast province of Mozam-
bique, we have seen an increasing number of attacks by Muslim extremists since 5 October 2017.
Originally known as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama – Arabic for ‘followers of the prophet’ – the group is com-
monly referred to by locals and officials as ‘Al-Shabaab’, although it has no known link to the notorious
Somali jihadist group of the same name.
In late 2015, academic researchers investigating radical groupings estimated that the movement had
around 100 cells in the region. The group is made up of ‘socially marginalised young people without
formal employment or formal education’, according to researchers at Mozambique's Eduardo Mondlane
University.
This group has similar objectives as Boko Haram in Nigeria. They want the imposition of Sharia Law,
and they want Western education replaced by Islamic Studies.
We need to be very clear that this is not what Islam is about. Having said that, we need to accept that
there are those with their own extremist version of Islam. These groups have given Muslims worldwide
a bad reputation, especially among ignorant and narrow-minded people.
What is a source of concern, is that in an area that has been free of religious intolerance, at least on the
surface, we are increasingly seeing a number of extremist actions with a religious undertone. Given the
significant diversity of religions in South Africa, the country cannot afford any form of intolerance.
11Camera inside Verulam mosque wasn’t working at time of attack – committee chairperson. M
Mngadi. News24, 17 May 2018.
https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/camera-inside-verulam-mosque-wasnt-working-at-time-of-
attack-committee-chairperson-20180517
Hawks take over Malmesbury mosque attack probe. S Fisher. Eyewitness News, Jun 2018.
http://ewn.co.za/2018/06/15/hawks-take-over-malmesbury-mosque-attack-probe
Inside the community where terror struck. R Davis. Daily Maverick, 17 May 2018.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-05-17-inside-the-community-where-terror-
struck/#.WyvA3y17How
Malmesbury mosque attack motive yet to be determined. M Mortlock. Eyewitness News, Jun
2018.
http://ewn.co.za/2018/06/18/malmesbury-mosque-attack-motive-yet-to-be-determined
Mozambique’s jihadists terror group: Who are they and what do they want? News24, 14 Jun 2018.
https://www.news24.com/Africa/News/mozambiques-jihadists-terror-group-who-are-they-and-what-do-
they-want-20180614
Foreigners as targets
South Africa’s security issues are spread over a wide range of challenges. Previous issues of Scan@IFR
have referred to the challenge of food security, the potential security challenge of the unemployed youth,
and the potential challenge of Muslim extremism.
Another security issue that is creating problems for South Africa as well as Africa is the phenomenon of
xenophobia. It does seem that this challenge is also linked to the phenomenon of youth unemployment
in South Africa.
According to Xenowatch, attacks on foreigner-owned shops are the third-most common form of xeno-
phobia. Between 1994 and May 2018, it has counted 227 acts of looting, the third-most prevalent form
of attack, after damage to property (254 incidents) and assault (240 incidents).
In May this year, foreign shopkeepers were ordered out of the townships of Inanda, Ntuzuma and
KwaMashu in the north of Durban by the business association of the region. However, nothing came
from the threat as police kept foreign shop-owners safe.
The incident forms part of a growing trend of attacks on foreigner-owned shops. A 2016 study on jobs
by the Development Policy Research Unit at UCT and the World Bank found that immigrants saw the
opportunities of township businesses quicker than local youth. Data indicates that South African town-
ship youth are not responding to the full potential of business opportunities in their own communities.
Immigrants, however, have responded more effectively to employment and business. As South Africa
has a youth unemployment rate of over 50% (6m youths), most youth will need to find employment in
the informal sector. This places a significant amount of pressure on opportunities in this sector, more so
when local youths feel their opportunities are exploited unfairly by foreigners.
Interestingly, Xenowatch estimates that foreigners entering the labour force have minimal overall effects
on jobs, but may create wage suppression or replacement in certain sectors or sub-sectors.
Attacks on foreigners in South Africa have created an outcry of protest from both within and without the
country. We have also seen protest actions in countries such as Nigeria against incidents of xenophobia
in South Africa. The latest incidents of xenophobia have included attacks on trucks and truck drivers
from Zambia and other Southern African countries.
Following a number of incidents, the Zambian government issued two travel advisory alerts to truck
drivers and transporters entering South Africa. According to the Zambian High Commissioner to SA,
12truckers and truck drivers should remain alert and follow security protocols issued by the South African
government. He has also called on Zambian truckers to avoid using routes which were experiencing
picketing, protests or demonstrations of any kind in order to save lives and goods. About six Zambian
registered trucks were recently caught up in separate local violent protests. Zambia’s High Commis-
sioner has also expressed concern that the sporadic attacks on Zambian truckers in South Africa could
affect trade volumes between the two countries.
It seems that it was not specifically Zambian trucks that were targeted, but foreign trucks in general.
Also, in some cases, it appears that the trucks got caught in protests over local issues. A number of
trucks came from Zimbabwe, Botswana, Congo and Zambia. Given the situation, there was a subtle
threat that this could force Zambia to begin to use other ports, such as Dar es Salaam and Walvis Bay.
This could also be true for other Southern African countries using South African ports, roads and rail-
ways.
As it is, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique are negotiating a rail connection between these three
countries to link the two landlocked countries with the harbour of Maputo.
South Africa cannot afford to be viewed as a country that is intolerant towards foreigners. Not only will
it lose diplomatic support for its initiatives, but it could lose support for its facilities, with landlocked
countries opting to use the ports available in Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia and Tanzania.
Attackers throw petrol bombs at Zambian trucks in South Africa: officials. Reuters, 10 May 2018.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-zambia-safrica-attacks/attackers-throw-petrol-bombs-at-zambian-
trucks-in-south-africa-officials-idUSKBN1IB22I
Attack on Zambian trucks may affect trade with South Africa – Mwamba. J Mwenda. Diggers
News, 14 May 2018.
https://diggers.news/local/2018/05/14/attack-on-zambian-trucks-may-affect-trade-with-south-africa-
mwamba/
Xenophobic Attacks: Do Foreigners REALLY Squeeze Locals Out Of Jobs And Opportunities? F
Haffajee. Huffington Post, 12 Jun 2018.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.za/2018/06/11/xenophobic-attacks-do-foreigners-really-squeeze-locals-
out-of-jobs-and-opportunities_a_23456097/
Zambia issues a second travel advisory alert to truck drivers and transporters entering South
Africa. Lusaka Times, 24 Jun 2018.
https://www.lusakatimes.com/2018/06/24/zambia-issues-a-second-travel-advisory-alert-to-truck-driv-
ers-and-transporters-entering-south-africa/
Zambia raises concern to South Africa over attacks on truck drivers. African News, 10 May 2018.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/10/c_137170380.htm
Technology &
Innovation
Precision agriculture coming to a farm near you
The future of farming is bright due to technological innovation centred on precision agriculture. The goal
with precision agriculture is to reduce the complexity of farming while also ensuring that the best produce
reaches the consumer at the cheapest possible price – not just in developed countries but also in the
developing world. Precision agriculture is generally seen as the utilisation of satellite and cellular net-
13works, GPS, sensor and internet of things (IoT) devices, robotics, control systems, automation and var-
ious other technological and communications innovations in agriculture. Drones, robots and intelligent
monitoring systems are already successfully being used in research and field trials.
Precision agriculture is expected to grow by up to US$43.4bn by the year 2025. The United Nations
Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimated that the global population will reach 9.2bn by 2050.
The FAO is of the view that to feed such a global population requires greater efficiency in current farming
methods and not more crop fields or cattle.
The current approach is to turn ordinary farms into smart farms with the initial support of artificial intelli-
gence (AI) and machine vision. The latter encompasses all industrial and non-industrial applications in
which a combination of hardware and software provides operational guidance to devices in the execu-
tion of their functions based on the capture and processing of images. Such systems rely on digital
sensors protected inside industrial cameras with specialised optics to acquire images, so that computer
hardware and software can process, analyse and measure various characteristics for decision making.
Smart farming is the term used to describe the use of modern information and communications technol-
ogies to enhance, monitor, automate or improve agricultural operations and processes. AI is expected
to become more commonly used through the implementation of technologies such as IoT sensors and
devices and more advanced AI systems. This is a necessary development for the future of farming to
reduce the chaos and complexity of farming stemming from thousands of interrelated variables at play
that range from the amount of nutrients in the soil to rain levels, temperature, the presence of insects,
and whether it is sunny or cloudy.
AI in agriculture is emerging in three major areas: (a) agricultural robotics, (b) soil and crop monitoring,
and (c) predictive analytics. Early applications of AI for farming point to the following enhanced future
applications:
Drones for in-depth field analysis, long-distance crop spraying and high-efficiency crop monitor-
ing
Driverless tractors, allowing more hectares to be worked for longer periods of time
Automated irrigation systems using real-time machine learning to constantly maintain desired
soil conditions to increase average yields
Crop health monitoring, which produces diagnostics specific to individual plots or even single
plants
Facial recognition for easy monitoring of an entire heard of animals with minimal interaction to
enable individual monitoring of group behaviour, early detection of lameness and accurate re-
cording of feeding habits.
AI systems will also assist in overcoming the inevitable data overload associated with this type of tech-
nological approach to farming – the systems would be able to interpret, understand and communicate
data in a way that is considerably more practical for farmers and those working in industrial agriculture.
Farmers and the industry can use AI algorithms to make better field decisions that enhance the proba-
bilities of a successful harvest. Breeders also can use AI algorithms to make the plants themselves
better. The combination of these uses could ultimately lead to lower prices at the supermarket.
One of the major problems in agriculture is pests and diseases destroying the produce before it matures.
Although the weather plays a part in these problems, human practises are a huge contributing factor. In
this regard, the disruption of the natural equilibrium through overuse of pesticides that kill the natural
enemies of these pests, poor agricultural practises, and large-scale monocultures are mainly to blame.
Luckily, AI is developing rapidly to solve these problems. Transfer learning is being used to teach AI to
recognise crop diseases and pest damage.
Precision agriculture has the potential to disrupt one of the most mature and established industries in
the global economy. The pesticide and seed industry is worth US$100bn globally with herbicide sales
alone accounting for US$26bn. Current farming methods involve spraying large amounts of indiscrimi-
nate weed killer over fields full of crops that have been genetically tweaked (usually by the same com-
pany that makes the weed killer) to resist the chemicals.
14Business opportunities abound. The World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit that was held in March 2018
in San Francisco, USA, brought together more than 1000 agro-tech leaders to discuss the way forward
and establish business opportunities. The Summit’s aim was to accelerate the commercialisation of
advanced agricultural technologies by generating global partnerships and collaborations. This is in sup-
port of the current trend with AI in agriculture where new tech start-ups are implementing agricultural
technological solutions. In some cases the start-ups have been bought by big agro-industry companies;
for example, the 180-year-old Deere & Company (John Deere) acquired Blue River Technology, a ma-
chine learning-centric start-up. Blue River provided the so-called ‘see and spray’ technology, which uti-
lises real-time machine learning to process images of weeds and crops. The crop sprayer is then in-
structed what and where to spray. Similarly, the Swiss company ecoRobotix raised US$10.6m as ven-
ture capital to develop its autonomous weeding robots – these robots will help farmers to produce health-
ier food with a more efficient and sustainable use of herbicides through decreasing total herbicide use
by a factor of 20.
Developing countries may be constrained in pursuing the global trend due to technological disad-
vantages but these countries are trying hard to leap-frog into the AI future of agriculture. In India, farmers
do not have the same internet coverage or technology expertise on rural farms as their counterparts in
the developed world. Nevertheless, they take additional steps and apply the AI techniques to provide
actionable insights on top of the raw data and imagery that are collected from the farms. They have
developed low-cost connectivity solutions on which IoT sensors and AI hardware could operate. In this
regard, they designed a system that uses new technologies, such as TV white spaces, to gather data
from the farms at a very low cost. This technology allows several connections over a few kilometres
enabling them to collect data from sensors as well as from drones and cameras.
In South Africa, precision farming is also taking root. In fact, most implements sold today in the country
include some form of data collection already installed, whether it is precision planting tools or harvest
monitoring. Farmers who adopted precision farming technology in South Africa are of the opinion that
they do achieve better yields over time at lower costs, while the impact on the environment is reduced
dramatically. The South African government is also keen to invest in precision farming in the country as
it believes that such farming would attract a new generation of farmers. Seed funding from the govern-
ment is, however, needed while a new strategy in farming that will benefit the youth has to be devised.
It is not expected that farmers will become obsolete. The knowledge and intuition that farmers have will
still play a role albeit in a different context. Current trends indicate that AI and automation will do the
majority of the work but that human oversight will remain. AI will complement and challenge how deci-
sions are made and perhaps improve farming practices. There will be a reduction of farm workers but
since the expertise will shift from farmer to AI, farm workers could be transformed into farmers as farming
expertise becomes democratised through AI – expertise will shift from the expert farmer to the expert AI
that will assist both the expert farmer and the new farmer. In this way farming in a developing context
will be on par with those in a developed context.
Precision agriculture is not only the probable future but also the preferred future. It should be seen as a
method to produce a better future by converging human knowledge with technological innovation to
create a sustainable earth.
AI and Machine Vision Redefining Precision Agriculture. Lanner, 22 Mar 2018.
https://www.lanner-america.com/blog/ai-machine-vision-redefining-precision-agriculture/
A Survey on Precision Agriculture: Technologies and Challenges. A Ullah et al. The 3rd Interna-
tional Conference on Next Generation Computing, 1 Jan 2018.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322160804_A_Survey_on_Precision_Agriculture_Technolo-
gies_and_Challenges
Can Artificial Intelligence help improve agricultural productivity? Food and Agricultural organi-
zation of the United Nations, 19 Dec 2017.
http://www.fao.org/e-agriculture/news/can-artificial-intelligence-help-improve-agricultural-productivity
15You can also read
