Joint Strategic Plan 2022-2025 - PEOPLE IN ARGYLL AND BUTE WILL LIVE LONGER, HEALTHIER INDEPENDENT LIVES - NHS Highland
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Joint Strategic Plan 2022-2025 PEOPLE IN ARGYLL AND BUTE WILL LIVE LONGER, HEALTHIER INDEPENDENT LIVES This document can be made available in a range of formats and languages, For contact details please see the last page of this document.
CONTENTS Priorities and Commissioning Intentions 3 National Health and Wellbeing Outcomes & Strategic Objectives 4 Foreword 5 Introduction 6 Background and Context 7 Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) and Population Profiles 10 Engagement - What you told us 23 Remobilisation 32 Transformation and Service Redesign- How will we get there? 33 Performance Measurement - How will we know? 92 Financial Implications - What will we spend? 93 APPENDICES Appendix 1 - Housing Contribution Appendix 8 - Mid-Argyll Locality Statement Profile Appendix 2 - JSNA and Population Appendix 9 - Kintyre Locality Profile Profile References Appendix 10 - Islay, Jura and Appendix 3 - HSCP Profile 2020/21 Colonsay Locality Profile Argyll and Bute Appendix 11 - Oban and Lorn Appendix 4 - List Profiles 2020/21 Locality Profile HSCP and Localities Summary Appendix 12 - Mull, Iona, Coll and Appendix 5 - Bute Locality Profile Tiree Locality Profile Appendix 6 - Cowal Locality Profile Appendix 13 - Strategic Performance Monitoring Appendix 7 - Helensburgh and Lomond Locality Profile 2
PRIORITIES AND COMMISSIONING INTENTIONS • We will ensure from the point of assessment, people are • We will ensure that people can live safely in given informed choices and options to meet their specific their own home and limit the time spent in personal outcomes and wishes hospital • We will work with carers as partners in the care of their • We will refocus on preventative services, loved ones including a shift to digital technology using • We will ensure all services deliver a more personalised type Telecare and Telehealth to reduce hospital visits of support and admissions • We will aim to have services based within communities to • We will keep adults, children and young people prevent people moving away and bringing people back into safe from harm Argyll and Bute • We will ensure that everyone who is part of • We want all services to comply with the National Health providing support is trauma informed and Social Care Standards for Health and Social Care: My Support, My Life • We will ensure that every decision will be made in consultation and engagement with the people of Argyll and Bute, and will have a positive effect for those with E LONGER, protected characteristics WI LL LIV HEA • We will communicate in a clear, open UTE LTH B IE and transparent way D R N IN A D LL EP GY EN AR DE E IN NT PEOPL LIVES • We want all commissioned • We will work with services to work in communities, providers partnership with HSCP and advocacy bodies to set staff, people who use the a vision for their community service, their carers and and co-produce community families to support personal based services to support outcomes and empower service people with options and choice users to successfully engage and continue to contribute to the life of • Where possible we will their community commission services locally and build capacity providers and third sector • We will develop a preventative approach partners in line with the five pillars of and promote independence and self- Community Wealth Building management within our communities. All services will enable, not disable, including • We will ensure that we have an inequalities supporting self-management; physical sensitive practice, targeting resources activity; enablement where they have most impact 3
NATIONAL HEALTH AND WELLBEING OUTCOMES & STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES National Health and Strategic Wellbeing Outcomes Objectives Reduce the number of avoidable emergency People are able to look after and improve their hospital admissions & minimise the time that own health and wellbeing and live in good health people are delayed in hospital for longer People, including those with disabilities or long term conditions, or who are frail, are able to live, as far as Support people to live fulfilling lives in their reasonably practicable, independently and at home or in a own homes for as long as possible homely setting in the community Institute a continuous quality improvement People who use health and social care services management process across the functions have positive experiences of those services, and delegated to the partnership have their dignity respected Health and social care services are centred on helping maintain or improve the quality of life of #KEEPTHEPROMISE people who use those services Promote health and wellbeing across our Health and social care services contribute to communities and age groups reducing health inequalities People who provide unpaid care are supported to look after their own health and wellbeing, including to reduce Support unpaid carers, to reduce the impact of their any negative impact of their caring role on their own caring role on their own health and wellbeing health and wellbeing Promote health and wellbeing across People using health and social care services our communities and age groups are safe from harm People who work in health and social care services feel Support staff to continuously improve the engaged with the work they do and are supported to information, support and care they deliver continually improve the information, support, care and treatment they provide Resources are used effectively and efficiently in the Efficiently and effectively manage all provision of health and social care resources to deliver best value 4
FOREWORD Welcome to the Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership’s (HSCP) third Strategic Plan for the years 2022-25. Creating and developing a Strategic Plan during the Covid 19 Pandemic has had its challenges. This has been magnified by the uncertainty ahead with the significant legislative changes on the horizon mainly the National Care Service and the Independent Review of Adult Social Care. That aside, the HSCP feel now is the time to set out our strategic direction for the next 3 years, to be ambitious, values based and aspirational yet realistic around what we can achieve and to support the remobilisation of services following the impact the pandemic has had on our services, workforce and society as a whole. As a rural Health and Social Care Partnership, our geography and demographic can at times be perceived as challenging but in Argyll and Bute we have tried to use this as an opportunity to push our boundaries around the use of digital technology, when appropriate, and different ways of working. Covid 19 has forced us to enact changes and seize opportunities when they have come our way, and we now have the opportunity to share what we have learnt, to learn from others and to develop the way we deliver services, preparing us for the future. This is just the start of the process. The Joint Strategic Plan pulls together for each strategic area, the objectives and priorities for the coming three years and how these will be measured and monitored. All of the priorities and actions will be linked to the objectives, priorities, and the intention is to ensure that every staff member and every service works towards our ultimate vision. Our focus on community wellbeing and the development of local services will also contribute to the economic stability of the area. Over the last 3 years, we have strengthened the governance of our Integration Joint board to ensure operational accountability. We have worked hard to try and improve our approach to integration by building on the success of multi-disciplinary teams and practices and this next strategic plan will continue to do this as we assess the need for transformation of services. Despite the pressures and challenges of the pandemic, we have worked hard to engage with our partners, stakeholders, and specifically our residents in Argyll and Bute to develop this plan, with the aim of ensuring we support people in Argyll and Bute to lead long, healthy, independent lives. Sarah Compton-Bishop Chair of Argyll & Bute Integration Joint Board 5
INTRODUCTION I would like to introduce myself as the Chief Officer for Argyll and Bute Health and Social Care Partnership. Firstly, we need to acknowledge that we have been, and still are, in unprecedented times. We all, as individuals, families, communities and services had to respond quickly to the impact of Covid-19. Unfortunately, we are still in the midst of this and have a requirement to continue to maintain existing services. However, it is important that we do not lose the lessons of how we all pulled together in a crisis, how partnerships were forged, how communities pulled together, how bureaucracy was removed as a barrier. It is also important to plan. To plan for now and to plan ahead for the future. Planning is about taking time to understand the health and social care needs of our local communities, islands, families and individuals to allow us to work with our partners in the NHS and Local Authority and throughout the public, third and independent sectors to think about what services we want in place in response. There are some services which are available to everyone which can be either preventative, like vaccination and screening programmes or available when we are feeling unwell like GPs and Pharmacists. However, there are times when each of us can be more vulnerable and need health and social care specialist or support services. This could be due to age, a medical condition, disability, trauma or life circumstances. We have set out the vision People in A&B will live longer healthier independent lives and our high level priorities of; • Prevention, early intervention and enablement, • Choice and control and Innovation, • Living well and active citizenship, • Community co-production” Our Strategic Plan hopefully maps for you a realistic picture of a complicated landscape, and creates the conditions to share resources, maximise the potential of the totality of our assets and strive ahead as we come out of the Covid 19 Pandemic and look towards living with not only Covid but the consequences we have seen from it well into the future. In particular we are looking to develop a Islands Strategy over 2022/23. The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded us, once again, that our workforce are our greatest resource and this plan will also guide us as our plans to promote the wellbeing of staff through our workforce and that of our partners. We are currently developing a National Health and Social Care Workforce Strategy, which will be incorporated as part of this plan later in the year. I look forward to working with you all in Argyll and Bute to achieve the best Health and Social Care service we can Fiona Davies and to lead our organisation through these uncertain and changing times ahead. Chief Officer Argyll & Bute HSCP If you would like to share feedback on the Joint Strategic plan and/or Specific Individual area. Please share your comments and feedback via our online survey click here. A paper Survey can be requested please contact nhsh.strategicplanning@nhs.scot 6
BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT Argyll and Bute HSCP brings together a wide range of health and social care services across Argyll and Bute. Services are provided by the HSCP or are purchased from the Independent and Third Sector. SERVICES FOR ALL STAGES OF LIFE In Argyll and Bute, the HSCP delivers and purchases a broad range of services covering all aspects of health and social care. Included in the remit of the HSCP are: • NHS services ; Community hospitals; Acute Care; Primary Care (including GPs); Allied Health Professionals, Community Health Services, Maternity Services • Public Health services including the Prevention agenda • Adult social care services including services for older adults; people with learning disabilities; and people with mental health problems • Children & Families social care services • Alcohol and Drug Services • Gender Based Violence THE INTEGRATION • Child and Adult Protection JOINT BOARD • Criminal and Community Justice Services The Public Bodies (Joint Working) (Scotland) Act, In bringing together all these services within one establishing integrated health and social care partnership and one strategy we aim for services to work partnerships on a legal footing, came into effect closer together so that people receive the right level of on 2 April 2014 and this is the third Strategic care at the right time from our workforce of professional Plan of the Integration Joint Board (IJB). staff and can move through services easily. We need to ensure that we plan services strategically The HSCP is governed by the IJB – a separate from the population and local data, evidence and what legal entity in its own right - which is responsible people and our workforce tell us. We need a range of for planning and overseeing the delivery of services from prevention programmes to critical care. community health, social work and social care services. The IJB is responsible for allocating the All services are strategically driven by local and national integrated revenue budget for health and social priorities and full service details are provided within the care in accordance with the objectives set out in its Strategic Plan. 5.6a Argyll and Bute Integration Scheme The IJB includes members from NHS Highland, Argyll & Bute Council, representatives of the Third Sector, Independent Sector, staff representatives and others representing the interests of patients, service users and carers. 7
A THREE YEAR VISION We have decided to develop a three year strategy for our services as there are some legislative changes coming over the next three years which would make it difficult to plan any longer than this. However, our objectives, priorities and commissioning intentions are unlikely to change as they have been set in line with the Review of Adult Social Care. We will continue to work to meet the Health and Wellbeing Outcomes and national and local outcomes set within individual strategies. Each service is currently developing their own Operational Plan and Commissioning Plan and as such our HSCP Strategic Plan will be an iterative document in response to these plans, and in response to the national policy developments and the recovery plans following Covid-19. The diagram in the next page shows how all of the strategies will link into the Joint Strategic Plan and the Joint Strategic Commissioning Strategy The monitoring of the plan will be on a quarterly basis when the performance measurement targets are presented to the IJB and the Strategic Planning Group (SPG). Working with third and community sector partners The HSCP is making a clear statement about working with a wide range of partners from the Third and Independent sectors to improve the health and wellbeing of our communities. Supporting people to take control and responsibility for their own health and wellbeing means co-producing a range of services that are designed and led by local communities. This will not only support the prevention agenda but in developing the capacity of organisations to deliver community led services it will also support community wealth building and resilience. We will also link into the localities alongside our Locality Planning Groups and Community Planning Partnership to deliver support and services in keeping with local need and have plans to develop a specific Islands strategy. Third Sector Independent Sector Localities Community Planning Partnership A&B HSCP 8
4 PRIORITY 8 STRATEGIC AREAS OBJECTIVES NINE HEALTH & WELLBEING OBJECTIVES JOINT STRATEGIC PLAN ENGAGEMENT GOVERNANCE JOINT STRATEGIC COMMISIONING STRATEGY LOCALITY PLANNING STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION GROUPS PLANNING GROUP BOARD CLIENT GROUP COMMISSIONING PLANS LIVING WELL NETWORKS STRATEGIC HOUSING STRATEGIES MENTAL HEALTH GENDER-BASED VIOLENCE LEARNING DISABILITY OLDER PEOPLE CARERS SUICIDE PREVENTION CHILDREN & YOUNG PEOPLE ALCOHOL & DRUG PARTNERSHIP PHYSICAL ACTIVITY PREVENTION / LIVING WELL CHILD POVERTY ACTION PLAN DIGITAL SOCIAL MITIGATION 9
JOINT STRATEGIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT (JSNA) AND POPULATION PROFILES Understanding Argyll and Bute As set out in the 2019/20 to 2021/22 Joint Strategic plan, Argyll and Bute HSCP is divided into four locality planning areas. Within three localities, there are further divisions into ‘local areas’ which consist of groupings of natural geographical communities and/or service provision. Planning may sometimes be necessary for smaller areas within a locality e.g. for one island. Localities and local areas are as follows: HSCP Local Settlement Hospital Locality Area (of 500 people or more) [1]1 Bute Rothesay, Port Bannatyne Victoria Hospital Bute and Cowal Dunoon, Hunter’s Quay, (B&C) Cowal Cowal Community Hospital Innellen, Tighnabruich Helensburgh Helensburgh, Cardross, Victoria Integrated Care and Lomond Gareochhead, Rosneath, Kilcreggen Centre, Helensburgh (H&L) Mid Argyll Community Hospital and Mid Argyll Lochgilphead, Tarbert, Ardrishaig Integrated Care Centre Mid Argyll, Kintyre and Kintyre Campbeltown Campbeltown Hospital Islay (MAKI) Islay and Jura Bowmore, Port Ellen Islay Hospital Oban, Lorn, Oban and Lorn Oban, Dunbeg Lorn & Island Hospital and the isles (OLI) Mull, Iona, Tobermory Mull & Iona Community Hospital Coll, Tiree and Colonsay Our Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) for adults was conducted in 2019 [2] with a data review for children and families completed in 2020 [3]. In addition, the 2019 Director of Public Health’s Annual Report highlighted population and health trends in NHS Highland [4]. To update the information gathered, profiles have been provided by Public Health Scotland Local Intelligence Support Team (PHS LIST) [6]. The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic mean that some 2020 and 2021 data is difficult to interpret; reviews conducted prior to COVID-19 provide the best available information in some areas. A specific review into the impact of COVID-19 was conducted in December 2020 [6]. The summary presented here draws on all these resources and aims to highlight the health and wellbeing of the population of Argyll and Bute as well as the challenges for Argyll and Bute HSCP in planning and delivering health and social care services. Please see Appendix 2 for references and Appendices 3-12 for accompanying documents. 1 NRS, 2016 Settlements and Localities | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk) 10
Figure 1 Argyll and Bute HSCP Locality Planning Group areas 2022/2025 Areas are represented based on a best fit of 2011 datazone areas with an adjustment to place colonsay in OLI Bule & Cowal Helensburgh & Lomond Mid Argyll, Kintyre & Islay Oban, Lom & The Isles Locality Planning Groups (LPGs) are required to develop, engage, communicate and enact the implementation of the 3 year Strategic Plan, at locality level, by developing their own annual Locality implementation plan. Following an Option Appraisal Workshop in October 2018 attended by Locality planning group members, participants’ agreed that the model of nine locality planning groups was not working and required urgent revision to achieve more efficient and effective shared planning across Argyll & Bute. A ‘Four Locality Planning Group Model’ overwhelmingly emerged as the preferred model for future locality planning arrangements in Argyll and Bute. Unfortunately, the Locality Planning Groups across Argyll and Bute were put on hold due to the operational focus required by HSCP during the pandemic. The HSCP is committed to re-establishing the groups within the first year of this plan. 11
DEMOGRAPHICS The 2020 mid-year population estimate for Argyll and Bute is 85,430, a 3.6% decrease since 2010, with the number of deaths registered higher than the number of births each year since the early 1990s [2]. 85,430 PEOPLE 3.6% SINCE 2010 In particular, the population of working age has decreased and is projected to continue to do so. Alongside this, the population of those under 16 has decreased and this is also projected to continue [3]. In contrast, the population of those aged 75 and over has increased each year since 2002 with 11.7% of the population aged 75+ compared to 8.6% in Scotland as WORKING AGE POPULATION a whole [2]. The number of people aged 75+ and 85+ is projected to continue to increase over the next 10 years [3]. Bute and Cowal have the highest proportion of people aged over 65 [4]. THE OLDEST IN THE POPULATION CHALLENGES • Increased demand for health and social care services from continued increases in the numbers of older people. • Increased need for end of life care [9, p. 77]. • Maintain workforce as the population of working age decreases. 12
LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES A significant remote and rural geography Argyll and Bute is the second largest Council area in Scotland by area (after Highland), with the third lowest overall population density in Scotland (after Highland and Na h-Eileanan Siar) [2]. 47% population live in ‘Rural’ areas (2020) [2] [5]. Helensburgh is relatively well-connected via land transport links with the central belt and is the only settlement classified as ‘Urban’ [5]. 69% population (live in ‘Very Remote’ areas (rural or small towns) (2020) [2] [5]. 45% of small areas are within the most access deprived in Scotland [6]. 23 inhabited islands at the 2011 census [7]. There is a lower ratio of people of working age to other ages in remote and rural areas [9, p. 13] [2, p. A1.5]. Deprivation and Poverty – associated with poorer health and wellbeing [9, p. 40] 1 in 10 of the population are estimated to be income deprived (9.7%), lower than for Scotland as a whole (12.1%) [6]. 17% of the population of Bute are estimated to be income deprived with Cowal (13.2%) and Kintyre (13.2%) also having a higher proportion than Scotland as a whole [6]. There is fragility in the economy in Argyll and Bute due to reliance on part-time and seasonal employment [13] [2, p. A2.6] [69]. Small areas within the most deprived 20% in Scotland can be found in parts of Campbeltown, Helensburgh, Hunter’s Quay, Dunoon, Rothesay and Oban. Bute, along with Helensburgh, have small areas within the 20% least deprived in Scotland [6]. Deprivation within rural areas is likely to be hidden by the mixed socioeconomic status of small rural areas [14]; 76% of those identified within Argyll and Bute as being income deprived do not live in one of the most deprived 20% of areas in Scotland [6] [2, p. A2.5]. 17% of those aged under 16 (2,215 children) are estimated to be living in relative poverty (2019/20) in Argyll and Bute [16]. Child poverty has long-term implications [15] and the proportion living in relative poverty has increased since 2013/14 in Argyll and Bute alongside the rest of the UK [16]. Minimum income standards (the income needed to afford ‘essential’ items) is high in remote, rural and island areas [17]. A factor in this is higher fuel costs; Argyll and Bute has high rates of fuel poverty in comparison to Scotland [18]. 13
LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES Trauma experience Childhood experience of trauma is associated with poorer health and wellbeing outcomes [8] [11]. 160 children (aged 0-17) in Argyll and Bute are classified as looked after (5-year average at 31st July 2016-2020) [19]. 49 children were on the child protection register (at 31st July 2020) [19]. 177 children were referred to the children’s reporter in 2020/21. Some were referred more than once resulting in a total of 228 referrals, 39 of which were for an offence [20]. 687 reported incidents of domestic abuse (2019/20). Reported rates have increased since 2003/04 are lower than for Scotland [21]. Although crime rates are relatively low, they are higher in more deprived areas [2, p. A2.12]. People with unmet Health and Social care needs can impact on Police Services. The impact of trauma experience can be mitigated against [8]. Housing Over 1 in 5 live alone and this is projected to increase (NRS) [9, p. 15] [2, p. A2.10]. The balance of care between residential or in the community has already shifted considerably towards looking after people at home [2, p. B3.11]. 52.8% of those age 65+ with long term care needs (10+ hours home care per week) were looked after at home (2018/19) [22]. Our housing needs assessment provided evidence of need for adaptations to support independent living at home [2, p. A2.10] [23]. There is evidence for need for affordable housing in some areas, which may be a barrier for the HSCP workforce [24]. Argyll and Bute has high rates of: • Empty properties in some areas • Second homes in some areas • Older housing stock 100 homeless application a year (the majority of which have support needs) [2, p. A2.10]. 14
LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES Seasonal factors Argyll and Bute has an increased temporary population in the summer months; this likely occurs both from tourism and longer stays in second homes [2]. Mortality increases in winter months as for Scotland as a whole [25]. Unpaid care As there are more people living with limiting conditions, the number of unpaid carers has increased [9, p. 71]. Unpaid care can impact on carers own health and wellbeing [26]. Carers, including young carers, may not identify themselves as such [2]. As many as 12,000 people aged 16+ provide unpaid care in Argyll and Bute with the highest proportion estimated to be residing in Bute, Cowal and Kintyre (estimated using Scottish Health Survey results and population estimates) [2]. Climate Climate change is a challenge that may impact health and wellbeing through several routes including through extreme weather and flood risk, changing disease risk, air pollution, migration and food security and it is likely to have greatest impact on those already vulnerable [28] [29]. With many island and coastal communities, parts of Argyll and Bute are more at risk of the impact of adverse weather events and disruption to transport networks including ferry travel and coastal roads. A new 2022-2026 climate emergency and sustainability strategy for the NHS in Scotland is being developed [30] . CHALLENGES • Accessibility of services for all • Need for housing adaptations including across a significant to support independent living remote and rural geography at home • Prevention and mitigation of • Seasonal fluctuations poverty and deprivation in demand • Prevention and mitigation of • Impact of unpaid care on carers trauma experience • Impact of adverse weather and • Increasing numbers of people reducing our carbon footprint living alone and social isolation and waste 15
HEALTH AND WELLBEING STATUS Life expectancy at birth (2018-20)[31] Life expectancy is slightly higher in Argyll and Bute than for Scotland as a whole [4]. Increases in life expectancy that were observed before 2012-2014, have slowed down (stalled) since 2012-2014 [2, p. A3.2] [9, p. 19] [32]. 81.6 years 76.8 years Inequalities That female life expectancy is higher compared to male life expectancy is an example of an inequality (an unjust and avoidable difference) [33] . Another is that life expectancy is lower in those living in the most deprived compared to least deprived areas [9, p. 57] and that the stalling of increases in life expectancy since 2012-2014 have been particularly in those living in the most deprived areas, with evidence linking this to austerity measures [32]. • People who live in areas with higher rates of poverty are more likely to: • Have babies with a low birthweight [9, p. 46] • Be overweight or obese when starting Primary One [9, p. 48] • Be admitted to hospital with asthma [9, p. 53]; COPD [9, p. 54]; a mental health problem [9, p. 55] and to have a potentially preventable admission for a chronic condition [9, p. 56] [2, p. A3.8] People who live in areas with higher rates of poverty are less likely to: • Be exclusively breast feeding at the 6 - 8 week review [9, p. 47] • Take up bowel cancer, breast cancer and aortic aneurysm screening [9, p. 49] • Live as long as people in more affluent areas [9, p. 57] [2, p. A3.8] The NHS Highland Director of Public Health’s Annual Report for 2019 [9] also highlights that: Gypsy / Traveller people have the worst health of any ethnic group in Scotland. LGBTQ+ people have worse health outcomes on average, and 14% report avoiding healthcare because of fear of discrimination. People with learning disabilities are more likely to experience low incomes, poor housing, social isolation and loneliness, bullying and abuse than people who do not have a learning disability. 330 adults with learning disabilities were known to Argyll and Bute Council (2019) [37]. 16
HEALTH AND WELLBEING STATUS Long term conditions Scottish core survey results indicate that 1 in 4 adults in Argyll and Bute are living with a limiting long term physical or mental health problem [34][35]. This proportion increases with increasing age. Through records of service use, Public Health Scotland estimates 24% people in Argyll and Bute are estimated to be living with a physical health condition, the most common of which is arthritis [4]. The proportion of people with multimorbidity (the presence of 2 or more conditions) increases with increasing age. ScotPHO burden of disease study (2019) [36] Highest burden of disease, by broad disease groups: • Through early mortality: cancers and cardiovascular diseases • Through disability: mental health disorders and musculoskeletal disorders Highest burden of disease by individual causes of disease: • Through early mortality: ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, cerebrovascular disease, ‘other cancers’, drug-use disorders, colorectal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ‘self-harm and interpersonal violence’ and lower respiratory infections. • Through disability: low back and neck pain, depression, headache disorders, anxiety disorders, osteoarthritis, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, ‘other musculoskeletal disorders’, ‘age-related and other hearing loss’ and alcohol use disorders. The prevalence of many conditions varies by age with the highest burden of disease for those under 15 including congenital birth defects and asthma. Long term conditions Some conditions are likely to be under-diagnosed including: [2, p. A3.7] • Dementia • Hypertension • Type II diabetes Due to increased number of older people and improved survival for some conditions, our DPH report [9] and HSCP needs assessment [2] indicate likely future increases in: • New and existing cancer diagnoses [9, p. 28] • Frailty [9, p. 36] • Musculosketal and orthopaedic problems • Sensory conditions associated with older age • Type II diabetes [9, p. 31] • Children and younger people with care needs [8, p. 29] • Dementia [9, p. 37] • Multimorbidity 17
HEALTH AND WELLBEING STATUS Frailty is associate with older age and people with frailty are more vulnerable to adverse outcomes following a relatively minor change or event. 14% of those 60+ in Argyll and Bute have been estimated to be frail, but this proportion increases with age considerably by age [9]. Crude rates of falls rates in Argyll and Bute are higher than for Scotland, which might be partially accounted for a higher proportion of older people in Argyll and Bute [4]. However, admission rates due to falls for those in specific older age bands e.g. 75-84 and 85+ are also higher in Argyll and Bute [38]. Mental health and illness 19% prescribed drugs for anxiety, depression or psychosis (2019/20) and this proportion increased in recent years up to 2019/20 [23] [5] Almost 50% of girls in S4 had abnormal/borderline scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) (a measure of Mental Health), asked as part of the Scottish Schools Adolescent Lifestyle and Substance Misuse Survey (SALSUS) [3]. In the 2018 included participation from every secondary school in Argyll and Bute, achieving a more robust sample than in previous years [3] Admissions due to intentional self-harm in young women (age 15-24) [40]. Suicide 66 suicides were reported in Argyll and Bute (2016-2020) [47] with higher rates in males compared to females and in the most deprived compared to the least deprived areas [41]. Challenges • Increasing numbers of people with care needs • Tackle (reduce) inequalities in health and wellbeing • Management of people with one or more long-term conditions • Prevention of long-term conditions • Under-diagnosis of certain conditions • Accessibility of services for those with sensory conditions • Mental health support e.g. through mental health first aiders, trauma informed communities and training in suicide prevention. 18
BEHAVIOURAL FACTORS As well as deprivation and life circumstances, age and genetic risk, behavioural and metabolic/ clinical risks influence health and wellbeing [4, p. 33] [2, p. A4]. Smoking 14.5% adults in Argyll and Bute are estimated to smoke (95% confidence: 11.1% – 17.8%, 2019) [42]. This has been decreasing but is higher in more deprived areas. Physical activity, diet and healthy weight [43] < 1 in 4 (22%) of adults within the Highland Health Board area eat 5 or more portions of fruit or vegetables a day (2016-2019). 66% females and 73% males meet recommendations for physical activity (2016-2019). Over a quarter (28%) of adults within the Highland Health Board area are obese (BMI 30 or higher, 2016-2019) [43]. 75% of children in P1 with healthy weight, lower than for Scotland as a whole (2019/20) [23]. Alcohol and drugs Hospital stays due to drug use in Argyll and Bute have increased in recent years and are more likely in the most deprived areas. Drug-specific deaths have also increased [5] [23]. 23% of adults are estimated to drink at hazardous/harmful levels (2016-2019) [43]. Sexual Health [46] Health Protection Scotland reported, up to 2019 a reduction in new HIV infections and a reduction between 2018 and 2019 in Syphilis infections, albeit from a peak in 2018. Chlamydia and Gonorrhoea infections show increases in recent years [45]. Rates of teenage pregnancies have been falling [44]. Reducing unintended teenage pregnancy remains a priority for the Scottish Government. Challenges • Enable and support behaviour change to reduce risk behaviours • Address risk factors and inequalities in risk behaviours 19
IMPACT OF COVID-19 Harms due to COVID-19 can be caused both directly by the disease but also indirectly by changes to or reductions in other health and social care services, by the impacts of social distancing measures or by the economic impact of the pandemic. The Scottish Government has set out what it refers to as the Four Harms of COVID-19 [48]: 1. Direct Health Impact of COVID-19: The direct impact of COVID-19 refers to the impact of having COVID-19. This includes the disease, hospitalisation, death and long COVID. 16,294 people had tested positive for COVID-19 in Argyll and Bute up to 27th February 2022, which is an underestimate of the total number of people who will have been infected with the virus [52]. The rate per head of population who have had a positive test (19,072.9 per 100,000) is lower than for Scotland (25,448.2 per 100,000). Sadly, 140 residents of Argyll and Bute have been registered with COVID-19 as any cause of death (occurring between 01 March 2020 and 31 January 2022), for which COVID-19 was the underlying cause in 120 deaths [51]. This is a lower age standardised rate (66.4 per 100,000) than for Scotland (109.5 per 100,000). Rates of death involving COVID-19 have been higher for older people, for those living in the most deprived compared to least deprived areas and in urban compared to rural areas. The number of people with long COVID in Argyll and Bute is uncertain. Scottish Government modelling projects that, on 6th March 2022, between 1.1% and 2.9% of the population of Scotland would self-classify with long Covid for 12 weeks or more after their first confirmed (or suspected) infection [50]. 2. Other health impacts: Other health impacts refers to the impact on delivery and use of health and social care services other than those related to COVID-19. During the first national lockdown and subsequently, NHS service use reduced in many areas including [48] : • A&E attendances • Planned and emergency hospital attendances • GP attendance Change in service use could be due to some or all of the following [53]: • Reduced need • Reduced demand • Reduced availability Waiting lists for new outpatient appointments across Scotland are 49% higher at end December 2021 than end December 2019 [54]. Waiting lists for inpatient or day case admissions across Scotland are 50% higher at end December 2021 than end December 2019 [54]. Excess Deaths Across Scotland, deaths in 2020 and 2021 exceeded the average for 2015-2019 by 11% and 10% respectively [57]. Around a third of the excess deaths in the first wave were not attributed directly to COVID-19 [53] [56] [55]. In Argyll and Bute, there were 6% more deaths in 2020 than the average for 2015-2019 [57]. 20
IMPACT OF COVID-19 3. Societal impacts: Societal impacts, relating to restrictions put in place to reduce the spread of the virus all impact on health e.g. through isolation or anxiety. Harm to children through missing education and contact with others is likely to impact most greatly on those from families on lower incomes [58]. There is evidence of an increase in domestic abuse through lockdown [59] and an increase in households applying for crisis grants [60]. Although not felt by all, negative impacts on mental health, including deterioration for those with mental health conditions have been described [61], including on children and young people [41, p. 42]. Reported survey data showed high levels of concern over the threat of losing employment [48]. Emerging evidence suggests that physical activity, diet and weight have also been affected [62]. Harm due to substance use may also have increased [63]. There is evidence that those with disability and those asked to shield have also been negatively impacted in many ways including reduced physical activity and increases in anxiety [64]. Older people have experienced increases in frailty and deconditioning due to lack of physical activity and increases in cognitive decline [65]. Many unpaid carers have lost support but taken on more burden of caring [66]. Health and social care staff, and other keyworkers are likely to have experienced increased pressures at work [41, p. 43]. Some groups are more likely to be negatively affected by restrictions and changes due to COVID-19, widening already existing inequalities in health and wellbeing. Identified groups more likely to experience indirect harm due to COVID-19 include [67]: • Young people (18-25) • People who use substances or who are in recovery • Women • People with a disability • People on low-income • People who are homeless • Families with children • People in the criminal justice system • Older People • People who are part of the Black, Asian • People with mental health problems and Minority Ethnic (BAME) community 4. Economic impacts: The economic impact of COVID-19 is also relevant to health and wellbeing. Many measures of health and wellbeing show an association with poverty or socioeconomic status. Those experiencing reduced income or uncertainty around income may be more at risk of harm to health. The economic impact of COVID-19 included a large decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and reductions in employment and income [48]. The economy of Argyll and Bute, with a reliance on the tourism industry, may make it particularly vulnerable [68]. The economic impact of COVID-19 is unequal, with those on low incomes and in seasonal employment most at risk and generating widening inequalities in income and employment [67]. There are many links between income, employment and health4 and greater inequalities in income are associated with overall poorer health[1]. Child poverty, which can have long lasting impact on health and wellbeing across the life course, is likely to increase. 21
IMPACT OF COVID-19 Summary COVID-19 has, in many ways, impacted most where there was already need e.g. increasing existing inequalities, impacting mental health and wellbeing and increasing waiting times for services. Responses to the pandemic have further accelerated existing changes towards care at home and remote delivery of services e.g. use of online tools to deliver online consultations. There remains uncertainty over the longer term impact of COVID-19. Evidence for the impact of COVID-19 is still emerging and the full impact is likely to take more time both to occur and to be evidenced. Challenges • Impact experienced unequally • Impact on unpaid carers • Increase demand for services due to lower uptake • Frailty and deconditioning during pandemic • Continuing uncertainty • Increased trauma experience • Staff mental health and wellbeing COMMUNICATION AND ENGAGEMENT Challenges • Collated feedback from previous engagement activities suggests a need to improve engagement with the public [2]. 22
ENGAGEMENT - WHAT YOU TOLD US A single ‘Engagement and Communications Action Plan’ was developed for both the JSCS and the HSCP Joint Strategic Plan to act on the declared vision that: We want to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to input into the future shape of health and social care services. We want to know the stories of how Covid has affected people and what we can learn from experiences. Identified stakeholders were invited to events planned in collaboration with the ihub – Transformational Redesign Unit (Strategic Planning Portfolio) of Healthcare Improvement Scotland. Online formats, including novel formats for the HSCP (Google Jamboard, Slido and the use of live and recorded webinars) were chosen due to COVID-19 restrictions. The table below describes the numbers of participants. What’s working? What’s not working? Think creatively, what would you do? What: What has happened in the last 3 years? Where are Stakeholder we now? What has been the Service Areas Format Participants Group impact? Staff Adult Conversation Café and 35 incl 3 So what: What have we Services* Jamboard facilitators gained? What have we lost? Adult Conversation Café and 15 incl 3 What shifts are needed? What Staff Services* Jamboard facilitators are priorities? Learning Disabilities Staff & Physical Dysabilities Conversation Café and 17 Now What: How do we take Jamboard (LD&PD) this forward? Staff Mental Health & Conversation Café and 31 incl 2 Addictions (MH&A) Jamboard facilitators Staff All Survey 1 (S1) 16 Staff All Survey 2 (S2) 89 Please share your Questions, Comments and Ideas SPG Strategic Planning Conversation Café 27 incl 3 Group and Jamboard facilitators Commissioned Third Providers Conversation Café 30 and Independent sector and Jamboard Providers From what has been heard Care homes and at Care at Conversation Café today what are the questions Providers Home Providers and Jamboard 31 and issues you wish to raise? Public / Open All Joined Live Webinar 36 What do you see the main developments in your area Public / All Watched Replay 21 over the next 3 years? Open Webinar Public / Joined Slido: active 60 | How do we foster All Open users Slido Poll: 51 collaboration over the next 3 years? Public / Online 24 All Open Survey 23
DRAFT PRIORITIES Staff surveys survey respondents were more likely than not to indicate that the draft priorities were meaningful and that they were aspirational and ambitious Meaningful Aspirational and ambitious Priorites 75% (n=87) 66% (n=88) Source: Saff Survey 2 results Saff Survey 1, combined Priorities and Commissioning Intertions: 60% meaningful (n=15) 40% Aspirational (n=15) Comments received from across the staff and provider feedback supported priorities relating to Prevention and early Intervention as well as Choice and Control I work in the field of Access to choice of Agree with Early intervention is I think you have Learning Disability social care services priorities. Great crucial for families choice & control and all of the above across the whole that Prevention and under pressure to spot on will enhance and of A&B. Too many Early Intervention reduce further risk improve the quality area’s have no are right at the top and future crisis and quantity of life services available for those I support Staff Public/Open Providers Staff Staff Results from the public survey, although from small numbers of people, provided evidence for potential for improvement in areas related to the priorities Only 2 out You / They were made of 19 people fully aware of the I believe they are Definitely aspirational as in the public community organisations what we should there is no money for early survey reacted locally where you / they already be doing intervention services positively to: could access support Staff Staff Challenges to the proposed Priorities and Commissioning intentions were that they: • Comprise buzz-words/ difficult language Language They’re quite inarguable as (co-production needs to be defined) seems broad principles. For them to cliche’d and be truly meaningful, they will • Are unattainable/unrealistic or difficult to achieve unauthentic need to measurable and linked • Need action to achieve them with goals at clinical team level • Need to be specific and measurable Staff Staff • Should be done already 24
WHERE WE ARE NOW Across the consultation, the The people - always the contribution of individual people/ people do their best staff was strongly recognised. Public/Open There was recognition of significant changes to services implemented over the course of the previous strategic plan and changes within HSCP senior management. All areas of engagement acknowledged the impact of COVID-19: Staff seem exhausted, less Negative impacts on staff and staffing (including burn-out and motivated and some have shortages) left the services. Contracts haven’t been renewed, so • Stretched services (including increased waiting times) families unable to find who • Increased use of technology is now managing their case • Shift of balance of care to the community Public/Open • COVID-19 impact of health and wellbeing of the population • Increase in service appreciation Although benefits were seen with the use of technology, feedback also cautioned regarding the impact of digital exclusion and need for face-to-face service provision. Travel is essential to access many services for A&B residents much of which requires travel to specialist The most common challenges with accessing HSCP services, as described in services in GG&C the public consultation were: • Long waiting times (49% Slido respondents and 35% of survey Public/Open respondents) • Lack of service availability (over 30% in each consultation method) • Travel required (over 30% in each consultation method) was highlighted by over 30% in each consultation method. Over 30% Slido respondents highlighted Some parts of argyll and • Lack of face to face provision (over 30% Slido respondents) and over Bute have more services 30% Survey respondents highlighted than others. More rural areas, staff seem to • Lack of communication from services (over 30% Survey respondents) struggle to cover basics • Difficulties knowing what services are available and how to access them (over 30% Survey respondents). Public/Open 25
Comments from survey respondents highlighted travel to GGC for specialist services and difficulties providing rural service provision. Staff shortages and services gaps were also highlighted. Current gaps with services was a theme that was repeated in Public, Provider and Staff engagement feedback. No specialist services in the No nursing Crisis in Not enough This is all well and good but area people have to move home in private providers the services to support this out of area and they can’t Oban area, care so not to happen for young people move back. Even areas within which needs provision much after diagnosis aren’t there? Argyll and Bute are a long way to be (POC’s) choice of For example if you have a from each other and family/ looked at service child diagnosed with autism community connections/ Staff where is the training for parents around this? Staff Public/Open Providers Staff Staff I think the HSCP do not Why are so many people Not enough flexibility to Gap in responder understand how vastly going out of area, are there ‘wrap around’ someone hours can be an different service delivery not the numbers of places leaving hospital or in crisis issue for clients with is across the area available in argyll and bute in community dementia Public/Open Provider Staff (CS) Staff (OA&D) Shortages in staffing was a key theme repeated across different areas, particularly within social care but also affecting other staffing groups. Flow of patients through Massive problem with Staffing barrier to What is your plan to get the hospitals- delays in shortage of carers SDS, great need but more carers ie Home Care being discharged have to provide care at small population of Dunoon is in urgent need resulted in real harm/ home causing delayed workers of Carers, Families cant get deterioration of the discharges in hospitals packages What is your Plan individual Staff (Hosp) Staff (CS) Providers Public/Open 26
The ongoing financial pressures faced by health and social care services was recognised but also, particularly in relation to commissioning, providers highlighted the difficulties with short-term and insecure funding arrangements. Services are really It may take some time for providers to build We need seed under pressure with up any trust in the words offered by Senior funding to allow us constant re-structuring Partnership Personnel however I believe this may to inact changes in or transformation, change if the Partnership show they have listened commissioning but not budget cuts and staff and offer care at home providers financial stability stop what we are doing shortages instead of the current spot purchase agreement at the same time Staff survey Providers Staff (SPG) Financial pressure from an individual perspective also had an impact on choice. Direct payment rates for option 2 don’t cover cost of most providers so only choice is option 3 or topping up themselves. If areas are mapped to providers there is no choice at all Providers Staff highlighted difficulties with building space/infrastructure. MAKI office space not Modernising our facilities to fit for purpose. Ongoing ensure they are fit for purpose longstanding issues and ready for the future Staff Staff (SPG) 27
This included some perceived limitation in specialist accommodation in the community. Not enough suitable Very limited accommodation in local supported living areas for Dementia clients in A and B Staff Staff (MH&A) Work culture There was acknowledge of the focus on work culture after the Sturrock review, with comments highlighting need for further work in this area. Not sure if it’s possible but perhaps How do you wish to address the find a way to help each profession challenges of “hierarchy” between to understand the work of the other health & social care? -from professions. Help them understand observation whilst there may be the tasks involved and the unique efforts to have integration it is a pressures of each workplace and un-balanced see-saw work type Staff Public / Open Value and celebrate staff input in all sectors, supportive working environment Staff 28
THE FUTURE Principles of providing services to support people were present in themes across all the engagement conducted Need for good communication with clients and partners What happened to the Co-production Client and family expectations - consultation work that was done a of services to improved management, clearer few years ago in OLI around this fit local needs, provision of what is provided and provision? A day spent discussing preferences not provided by carer’s, within a options and considering and available package of care implications of each. Felt like time resources well spent but no follow-up? Public/Open Public/Open Staff (Hosp) Joint working – with partners and community groups Re-alignment and more Barriers as cannot share information Better community equitable opportunities with commissioned providers, can integration, between external and we not share support plan and possibly with more internal providers assessments with care providers 3rd sector input Providers Staff (Hosp) Public/Open Geographical accessibility (and transport) OLI is a very rural area Transport issues Better local Providing care locally with the islands included, across the access to to needing it, reducing so other issues affect localities services patients having to this area, travel time etc travel to access care Providers Staff Public Staff (Hosp) 29
Person centred – continuity of provision from a client perspective Shifts - need investment People are people. A person-centred Ensuring that focus on outcome of approach, provided by well-trained and vacancies are filled individuals and not multi-skilled workers surely leads to positive quickly, so we know follow old patterns of outcomes, rather than fixating on client who to contact service provision groups and assuming that people with a certain health condition or impairment have presumed similarities Staff – (SPG) Providers Public/Open Respite from unpaid care/support for carers Ensure that all those involved in public interface and decision making fully Lack of respite resources understand and are committed to for carers to give them implementing the above mentioned Acts. proper breaks away from (Statutory Guidance for the Self-directed caring role Support (Scotland) Act 2013, and the Carers (Scotland) Act 2016) Providers Staff (OA&D) Quality, safety, governance Some HSCPs require a brief Greater focus on outcomes and linking Better community care. 4-weekly return covering resource consumption and allocation Improve home care. KPIs as part of the contract to the impact we make on people lives Make social work staff monitoring process rather than focussing on inputs more visible Providers Staff (SPG) Public/Open 30
Hospital at home and Redesigning older staff outreaching if people care home/care we had more staff at home services to be to do this, would more core and cluster Staff and public had suggestions relating to improve links for both where appropriate the model of care between community and Community and hospital hospital including: Staff (Hosp) Providers • Step up and down provision • Intermediate care Third sector home Struan Lodge were • Core and cluster models from home community doing step up step options to offer support down a number of rather than admission years ago. We are • Hospital at home services situated next to Cowal community Hospital this should be reinstated Staff (MH&A) Public/Open FEEDBACK ABOUT THE CONSULTATION There was feedback on the consultation itself. The limitations of the consultation in the low response rates for the public survey and need for continued engagement was also highlighted. Keep jamboard running 28 people to date, in a population of more How do you plan to build permanently for suggestions than 80,000, partaking in a poorly designed partnerships with local “island” - as long as there is feedback poll, is of limited utility. It would be good to communities? You say it is an to know this is being listened hear ideas of more meaningful consultation. ‘important conversation to - even if don’t always agree Staff Public/Open Public/Open This webinar seems to focus on More discussion about older adults. What about adults with what is actually needed personal problems or relationship/ in the area - its not one family issues? size fits all Public/Open Public/Open 31
REMOBILISATION The remobilisation of services across both health and social care is a Scottish Government priority and frontline staff and managers are working hard to achieve this across the Health & Social Care Partnership (HSCP). The success of the vaccinations programme has reduced deaths but the ongoing impact of responding to variants of Covid-19 has created a growing backlog of patients waiting much longer for treatment. The HSCP has developed a remobilisation (recovery) plan to reduce the backlog and transform how care is delivered to meet our population need. The plan will focus on creatively adding additional activity into the system and have a robust waiting list management system ensuring that the most urgent patients receive their care first. Risks to our remobilisation • Uncertainty about how the Covid-19 pandemic will develop and the potential impact of future surges on the NHS • Workforce issues, including the need to make sure that staff have time and support to rest and take leave and concerns about sustainability because of retirals, recruitment challenges, redeployment and having the appropriate skills mix Covid-19 • Concerns about the longer-term impact of Covid-19 on the population and the way in which health and social care services will be delivered. Examples include the resources needed to further develop the role of public health services; the ongoing need for enhanced infection prevention and control measures; and the impact of unidentified and unmet healthcare needs on the demand for services. The HSCP also plan to introduce a centralised booking service to ensure that patient pathways are appropriate, any variances can be addressed, access is improved for patients and resources are maximised leading to reduced waiting times. A centralised booking service would improve service accessibility and patient care through redesigning: • Physio / MSK Virtual service (Orthopaedic redesign) • Ophthalmology imaging hubs and referral onwards to GGC virtual Ophthalmology service • ENT service where LIH is potentially the hub for all diagnostics including naseo-endoscopes and increased use of Audiology to support virtual appointments/ treatments Shift to virtual consultations: • During the Covid Pandemic we have seen an increased shift in the increased use of technology and patients utilising alternative pathways of care and accessing virtual appointments, either via NHS Near me or telephone, patients can also access consultants from other sites using this technology. • It is vital that as part of the remobilisation the HSCP harness these opportunities to embed and enhance these new ways of working as the blended “norm” where possible and we need to set an ambitious but realistic target across all clinical specialties including AHPs. The NHS Near me infrastructure continues to grow, the TEC team are supporting clinicians to use it and look to further work with NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde to support the pressure specialities. 32
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