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Issue: The Restaurant Business

                    The Restaurant Business

                          By: Lisa Rabasca Roepe

                                                                                   Pub. Date: July 24, 2017
                                                                            Access Date: October 20, 2020
                                                                           DOI: 10.1177/237455680322.n1
Source URL: http://businessresearcher.sagepub.com/sbr-1863-103550-2825393/20170724/the-restaurant-business
                                                            ©2020 SAGE Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Issue: The Restaurant Business The Restaurant Business - SAGE ...
©2020 SAGE Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Is eating out still in?

Executive Summary
The U.S. restaurant industry faces a fundamental problem: too many eateries and not enough customers. Challenging the industry are
disruptive forces that include a sharp decline in the number of people eating lunch out, stiff competition from food trucks, the rise of home-
delivered meals and other food and the indirect effects of changing lifestyles such as greater online shopping. The total number of
restaurants has fallen by 2 percent since 2014, and traffic at the remaining ones has been essentially flat. Full-service casual chain
restaurants are especially hard-pressed, while lower-end fast-food chains that serve breakfast all day are in better shape and high-end
restaurants in prosperous coastal cities are doing well.
Among the key takeaways:
      Retail food prices decreased by 1.3 percent in 2016, while restaurant prices rose 2.5 percent as labor and health care costs
      increased.
      Diners who patronize fast-food and fast-casual establishments at least twice a week intend to cut back their visits by 8 percent and
      13 percent, respectively, over the next 12 months.
      Digital ordering via smartphone apps has grown 18 percent over the past year, creating a growth opportunity for restaurants.

Full Report

           Le Garage Restaurant in Wiscasset, Maine, closed in April after 40 years in business. Restaurants are being squeezed by
           growing competition and rising costs. (Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)

Americans love to eat and drink – so much so that they ranked those activities as more important than careers, personal fulfillment or even
religion, according to a survey by the market research firm Datassential. 1
So if gastronomy comes before godliness, why was 2016 the worst year for the restaurant industry since the 2007–09 recession,
according to QSR Magazine? Why were restaurants’ aggregate sales down in every quarter, the first time that has happened since 2009,
according to the research and analytics firm TDn2K? 2 In a nation of food lovers, why is the industry struggling?
The answer to this paradox, analysts say, can be found in a long list of disruptive forces buffeting the restaurant business, which include:
      A plunge in the number of people going out to lunch.

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      Growing competition from ready-to-serve meals, food trucks and home-delivered meal kits.
      More takeout and less dining inside restaurants, which depresses sales of drinks and desserts.
      Changing consumer tastes that prioritize travel over dining out.
      Indirect effects of lifestyle changes, such as more people working at home and shopping online.
Another important source of trouble is that, for the first time ever, purchasing food at a grocery store is cheaper than buying it at a fast-food
restaurant, says Molly Harnischfeger, a director of restaurants, hospitality and leisure practice at AlixPartners, a management consultant.
And that gap is widening, she says.
As a result, consumers have decided that restaurants are no longer a good value. In fact, more than half – 56 percent – of the consumers
who plan to purchase more meals from grocery or convenience stores said they are motived by price, ahead of quality and convenience,
according to an April 2017 AlixPartners’ survey. 3
Last year was the first in nearly 50 years that grocery store prices dropped, decreasing by 1.3 percent, according to the U.S. Department
of Agriculture. 4 In comparison, restaurant prices increased by 2.5 percent in 2016, according to Wallace B. Doolin, chairman and founder
of TDn2K and Black Box Intelligence, a consulting firm that provides restaurant-industry metrics, sales trends and performance data.
“Restaurants are paying the price for taking too much price,” he says.
The U.S. restaurant industry has a sizable impact on the nation’s economy. The industry employed 11.7 million people as of June,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which amounts to more than 7 percent of the overall U.S. workforce. 5 This year, the industry’s
annual sales are projected to be $799 billion, about 4 percent of total U.S. gross domestic product. 6 Restaurant sales generate tax
dollars for local communities; for every dollar spent in restaurants, an additional $2 is generated in sales for other industries, producing
more tax dollars and economic activity, says Dawn Sweeney, president and CEO of the National Restaurant Association. The industries
that benefit range from construction to marketing and advertising to equipment manufacturing, according to Sarah Dolan, the association’s
director of media relations.

Mid-Market Restaurants Feel the Squeeze
Restaurants being hit the hardest are the full-service casual chains such as Chili’s, Applebee’s and Red Lobster. Full-service chain
restaurants have experienced declining traffic for several years and have never fully recovered from the 2007–09 recession, says Bonnie
Riggs, chief restaurant analyst with the NPD Group Inc., a market research firm based in Port Washington, N.Y. What little growth the
restaurant industry has seen since the recession has been with fast-casual restaurants such as Chipotle Mexican Grill, Five Guys and
Panera Bread. Traffic at fast-casual restaurants had been increasing by 1 percent annually since 2011, but in 2016 even that modest
increase ended, Riggs says.
“A lot of that has to do with restaurant operators increasing their prices quarter after quarter to cover increasing health care and wage
costs,” she says. “The price-value relationship is out of whack and consumers have decided that restaurants are no longer a good value.”
(At the start of this year, 19 states increased their minimum wage, and two others plus the District of Columbia will do so later in 2017;
some states allow businesses to pay workers who receive tips a base wage below the legal minimum.) 7
In addition, increased competition for the consumer’s discretionary income has made it harder for restaurants to lure customers. 8 A
February 2017 survey of 1,008 U.S. consumers by AlixPartners found that diners who eat at fast-food and fast-casual establishments at
least twice a week plan to reduce their visits by 8 percent and 13 percent, respectively, over the next year. The reason cited by 50 percent
of the participants was to save money; among that group, 32 percent said they were saving for “travel experiences.”
Meanwhile, low- and middle-income households are finding they have less discretionary income as the costs of housing and transportation
have increased and are changing their spending habits as a result. Low-income households are devoting a greater share of their budget
to basic needs than 30 years ago, according to a 2016 report by The Hamilton Project, an economic research group within the Brookings
Institution, a Washington think tank. 9 Low-income and middle-income households spend about 80 percent of their budget on housing,
food, transportation, health care, and clothing, the Hamilton report also found. In fact, according to the report, for low-income households,
almost 41 percent of their budget goes to housing, which is up 5.5 percent from 1984.
At the same time, wages for most workers have been flat or even falling for decades, according to a 2014 report by the Pew Research
Center, a Washington think tank. 10 While diners in large cities can support multiple restaurants, patrons in smaller towns and cities are
not dining out often enough to support the variety of eateries that have been built over time.

Digital Ordering Wins Widespread Popularity
Majority in most age groups have ordered food online

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                  Source: “Online Ordering Usage Report: 2017,” orderTalk, p.3, https://tinyurl.com/yb8zerkt

                  More than half of people in most age groups have used an app or website to order takeout food. Millennials
                  rely on it most, but one-third of seniors also say they have used it.

Yet while restaurants in the middle are feeling the squeeze, lower- and higher-end restaurants are doing fine. High-end luxury dining grew
last year in East and West Coast cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Washington and, according to data from the
real estate firm Trulia, residents there spent at least half their food budget on dining out. 11 Fine dining is up this year, but only slightly,
Doolin says. “The people who can afford to eat out, do eat out and will eat out as often as they want.” However, Riggs warns that fine
dining cannot carry the entire industry because it represents only 1 percent of the market. “We hear so much about it, but the masses, the
general population, can’t afford it,” she says.
With so many choices, here is a quick primer on dining options:
      Fast-food restaurants, also known as quick-service restaurants, typically serve hamburgers, pizza, or fried chicken prepared in
      quantity using a standardized method. Examples include McDonalds, Taco Bell and KFC.
      Fast-casual restaurants do not offer full-table service but provide a higher quality of food than traditional fast-food restaurants, using
      few frozen or processed ingredients. Examples include Boston Market, Five Guys, Panera Bread and Chipotle Mexican Grill.
      Casual dining restaurants offer full table service provided by a wait staff. Examples include Denny’s, Applebees and Chili’s.
On the lower end, quick-service restaurants have benefited from people who are economizing and trying to spend less money on eating
out, Doolin says. Many are trading down from fast casual to quick service, he says. For restaurants such as Denny’s and McDonald’s that
serve breakfast all day, sales are up 8 percent, Riggs says. Breakfast has been a growth driver, she says, perhaps because it satisfies
the need for convenience for busy workers who do not always have time to make breakfast. In fact, she adds, several quick-service
restaurants such as Subway and Taco Bell are adding breakfast items as a means to attract more customers.
Casual-dining chain restaurants have a hard time differentiating themselves to customers, Doolin says. “Everyone is serving a similar
product, for a similar price, in a similar building and with a similar atmosphere,” he says. Often their biggest competition comes from local
independent restaurants with a smaller menu that offers better quality food than most chains are able to, he says.
“Local independent restaurants are pulling people in because they’re new and unique,” Doolin says, pointing to popular local chains
including Lettuce Entertain You Restaurants in Chicago and Starr Restaurants in Philadelphia. “Most major cities have one or two
entrepreneurs creating a unique collection of restaurants in the marketplace.” Yet even local independent restaurants are feeling the
squeeze, with about 5 percent of them closing their doors in the last four years, according to the NPD Group. Analyst Riggs says this is the
steepest decline since NPD began tracking openings and closings in 1998.

A Restaurant Glut

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Riggs says the industry is struggling with a basic problem: There are too many restaurants and not enough customers, and the glut is
hurting the entire industry and not just the fast-casual category. “We now have more restaurants than bodies to fill them,” she says.
The number of U.S. restaurants peaked in 2014 at 637,584, according to Statista, an online statistics, market research and business
intelligence portal. 12 U.S. restaurants totaled 624,301 in 2016, down 1 percent from 632,572 in 2015, according to the NPD Group. 13
But even with these closures, the oversupply remains. “The industry is already overbuilt and continues to build, though not at rates we’re
accustomed to,” Doolin says. Given the decline in sales, the U.S. restaurant sector may be oversupplied by as many as 4,500 restaurants,
Harnischfeger says.
                                 For the first three months of 2017, there were 62 billion restaurant visits by customers, the same number for
                                 the comparable period in 2016, Riggs says. “The only way to drive growth is to increase the frequency of
                                 visits,” she says. However, finding ways to increase customer visits will be a challenge, because
                                 consumers are cutting back on their lunchtime and dinnertime trips to restaurants. Last year, restaurants
                                 saw the lowest level of lunchtime traffic in at least four decades. U.S. consumers made 433 million fewer
                                 trips to restaurants at lunchtime in 2016 than they did in the previous year, resulting in roughly $3.2 billion in
                                 lost business, according to the NPD Group. 14
                                 At the same time, fewer customers are eating dinner in restaurants. According to the NPD Group, 48
                                 percent of dinners purchased at a restaurant are eaten at home as takeout. 15 This hurts profits because
                                 restaurants make more money when diners eat in and purchase soft drinks, alcoholic beverages,
Molly Harnischfeger of           appetizers and desserts.
AlixPartners
                               Further, consumers have more takeout options than before. As more grocery stores offer high-end
                               prepared meals, the line between retail food service and restaurants is blurring. While restaurant visits are
declining, revenue for prepared food service at supermarkets grew an average of 10 percent a year from 2005 to 2015, according to
Technomic Inc., a Chicago research and consulting firm that specializes in the food and restaurant industry. 16
Consumers’ changing lifestyles also may be responsible. For instance, more people are working from home and, as a result, are less
likely to eat lunch out. In 2015, the number of people working at least some of the time at home rose to 24 percent, according to the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 17 An increase in online shopping means fewer trips to the mall, which in turn means fewer visits to chain
restaurants. Doolin warns that mall closures could further exacerbate the loss of customers for chain restaurants. Analysts predict 25
percent to 30 percent of the 1,100 enclosed U.S. malls will go out of business in the next five to 10 years, he says.
“In the past, restaurants utilized the retail traffic drivers to generate visits to their restaurants,” Doolin says. “With the weakness in retail
traffic, some developers are utilizing restaurants to now drive traffic to the mall and its other occupants.” There is a danger that this will
further exacerbate the oversupply problem, resulting in too many restaurants splitting up the same traffic without another activity driving
traffic to the mall, he says. “In the very best malls, you find a careful mix of relevant retail, entertainment and restaurants” that brings in
complementary traffic, he says.
Overall, restaurants are struggling to give consumers a reason to leave their homes and come in for a meal; it is certainly not cheaper
prices or more convenience. Time is a precious commodity for consumers, Doolin says. Full-service restaurants that can lure customers
will need to satisfy each diner’s expectations, he says, and that is becoming increasingly difficult to do as restaurants struggle to find and
keep reliable employees. The turnover rate in the restaurants-and-accommodations sector was 72.9 percent in 2016, up slightly from 72.2
percent in 2015 (although lower than the 80.7 rate in pre-recession 2007), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 18
Good service is often what encourages consumers to return, Doolin says. Customers wants to be treated
well from moment they walk in the door to when they leave, but the service in most restaurants has become
“abysmal,” Riggs says. In an attempt to cut costs, restaurant operators are hiring fewer staff members and
relying more on part-time help, Riggs says, but this has led to more employees who are disgruntled and
more unsatisfied customers. “Consumers don’t want to spend an hour somewhere eating dinner if they’re
not having a great experience,” says Rick Zambrano, owner of Eatery Pulse News, an industry trade
publication.
In fact, 25 percent of consumers said they would rather order through a digital platform than traditional wait
staff, according to the 2017 American Express Restaurant Trade Survey. 19 The survey finds that
Millennials have the biggest appetite for digital dining experiences, from ordering take-out through a mobile
app to ordering and paying for their meal using a kiosk at their table to posting photos of what they are
eating on social media.
“Restaurants have to service two different mindsets – Millennials who are super tech-focused and Baby
Boomers who are often put off by technology,” Harnischfeger says. The challenge is that, when restaurants
give priority to tech-savvy customers, it slows down in-house ordering and, ultimately can frustrate Baby             Dawn Sweeney, National
Boomers, she says. This creates a tension over how restaurants can best serve the needs of two types of               Restaurant Association CEO
consumers who experience restaurants differently.

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The Potential of Digital Ordering
If there is a bright spot in the restaurant industry, it is the growth of delivery and its potential to bring in more customers, especially those
accustomed to using technology to make their lives easier. Although pizza continues to dominate U.S. delivery, non-pizza delivery has
risen by 30 percent in the past four years, according to the NPD Group’s Riggs.
Digital ordering via smartphone apps, in particular, has grown 18 percent over the past year, Harnischfeger says. Those under age 35,
African Americans and higher-income households are more likely to order using technology. Younger consumers prefer to order in
advance and schedule their food delivery (50 percent) while older consumers (25 percent) tend to order in the moment, according to
AlixPartners. Regardless of the timing, delivery offers an opportunity for restaurants to increase their customer base, and several fast-food
restaurants are taking advantage of the trend, including McDonald’s, Red Robin and Panera. “Restaurant delivery is a $100 billion-dollar
market, and it’s exploding,” Lucy Brady, McDonald’s senior vice president of corporate strategy and business development, told investors
in March. 20 McDonald’s uses Uber‘s UberEATS service to offer delivery from more than 2,000 U.S. restaurants.
                                 Although AlixPartners found that consumers prefer ordering from a restaurant directly (53 percent) versus a
                                 third-party (6 percent), restaurants such as McDonald’s and Red Robin are partnering with Uber and
                                 DoorDash, respectively, because it is cheaper to use a third party than to pay for their own delivery vehicles
                                 and drivers, Harnischfeger says. Panera employs roughly 4,000 drivers and is looking at hiring an
                                 additional 10,000 this year. The restaurant is also developing a delivery app that would allow customers to
                                 track the time and location of their delivery, much as Uber allows customers to see when their driver will
                                 arrive to pick them up for a trip. 21
                                 However, Zambrano warns that the same technology that is helping restaurants to connect with consumers
                                 is also helping to create dining options that compete directly with restaurants. Chefs in New York City, San
                                 Francisco and Washington are creating delivery-only operations that allow them to save money on rising
                                 rent and wages while providing gourmet meals for about $15 a person. 22

                                 Which Restaurants Will Survive?

Lucy Brady of McDonald’s
                                 Although consumers have not fully embraced restaurant loyalty programs, analysts say these programs
                                 could be the key to getting more consumers in the door, especially as customers indicate they are
                                 increasingly interested in using promotions and coupons to save money on dining out.
According to AlixPartners, 48 percent of consumers said they plan to use coupons, promotions and discounts this year to save money
while dining out, compared with 39 percent last year. Loyalty programs are slowly gaining traction, with 19 percent of consumers in 2017
indicating that these programs are extremely influential when they are deciding where to dine versus 14 percent last year. Yet customers
are fickle. Despite their interest in saving money, only 60 percent of consumers say they have joined a restaurant loyalty program,
according to AlixPartners.
The NPD Group asked customers who plan to cut back on dining out what restaurants could do to entice them to visit. More than 60
percent said regular discounts would bring them back, Riggs says. Most fast-casual restaurants already offer discounts and deals, Riggs
says, but they are not the type of deals consumers seek. Consumers want a discount on a regular menu item, not something small like a
free fountain drink. They also want a reward program that they can easily use with their smartphones, Riggs says.
Riggs warns that discounts and loyalty programs alone might not be enough to get consumers back in the door. “Restaurants really need
to evaluate prices, if they expect to get consumers back, especially the general population,” she says. Restaurants in areas with lots of
tourism, foot traffic and higher income will be fine, Riggs says, but in smaller towns and cities, most patrons cannot afford to pay these
prices. “The restaurants that will survive will be the ones that can blend the experience of eating a great meal out with convenience,”
Zambrano says.

About the Author
Lisa Rabasca Roepe is a journalist who writes about the culture of work, personal finance, the media and technology. Her work has
appeared in Fast Company, Ozy.com, Good, Quartz, The Week, HR Magazine, Men’s Journal and Eater. She is also a Forbes
contributor. She has written previously for Business Researcher on business accelerators and craft brewers.

Chronology

Early- to mid-      Chains are established and spread.
20th century

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1919               A&W opens its first restaurant in Lodi, Calif., followed by White Castle in 1921.
1944               Howard Johnson, one of the biggest U.S. restaurant chains, closes 188 outlets due to World War II food rationing,
                   leaving only 12 open. In 2016, it will close all but one restaurant in Lake George, N.Y.
1953               The predecessor to Burger King opens in Jacksonville, Fla., followed by Ray Kroc’s first McDonalds’ outlet in Des
                   Plaines, Ill., in 1955.
1958               Pizza Hut opens its first restaurant in June 1958 in Wichita, Kan., founded by two Wichita State University students,
                   brothers Dan and Frank Carney.
1968               Red Lobster, one of the first full-service fast-casual chains, opens.
Late 20th and      Changing tastes reshape the industry.
21st centuries
1993               Chipotle Mexican Grill, one of the first U.S. fast-casual chains to highlight locally grown ingredients, opens.
1999               SeamlessWeb, later known as Seamless, is founded to provide customers a Web-based system for ordering food
                   from restaurants and caterers.
2008               The modern food-truck craze starts in Los Angeles with Kogi BBQ.… With the United States mired in the worst
                   recession since World War II, total restaurant industry sales drop 1.2 percent in inflation-adjusted terms, according to
                   the National Restaurant Association.
2009               Industry sales fall another 2.9 percent, according to the restaurant association.
2014               The number of restaurants in the United States peaks at 637,584, according to Statista, an online portal for business
                   statistics and research.
2016               The number of U.S. restaurants is at 624,301, down 1 percent from 632,572 in 2015, according to the market research
                   firm NPD Group.… Retail food prices decrease by 1.3 percent while restaurant prices increase by 2.5 percent,
                   according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; for the first time, food bought at a grocery store is less expensive than
                   that purchased at a fast-food restaurant, according to Molly Harnischfeger of management consultant AlixPartners.

Resources for Further Study
Bibliography
Books

“So, You’re Thinking About Owning, Operating or Investing in a Restaurant …: How to Get Into the Restaurant Business with Eyes Wide
Open,” RSG LLC, 2016. This book by Restaurant Startup & Growth and RestaurantOwner.com explains what you need to know before
investing in a restaurant.
Fields, Roger, “Restaurant Success by the Numbers, Second Edition: A Money-Guy’s Guide to Opening the Next New Hot Spot,” Ten
Speed Press, 2014. This one-stop guide to opening a restaurant from an accountant-turned-restaurateur shows aspiring proprietors how
to succeed in the crucial first year and beyond.

Articles

“2016 Was the Worst Restaurant Year Since the Recession,” QSR, Jan. 13, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yaupfvd3. A magazine focused on
quick-service and fast-casual restaurants looks at overall industry data for 2016 and concludes that it was not a good year.
Jargon, Julie, “Diners Are Finding $13 Burgers Hard to Swallow,” The Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yddksn5p.
Lunch traffic at quick-serve hamburger restaurants dropped by 5 percent in 2016, the biggest year-over-year decline ever recorded,
according to a market research firm.
Jargon, Julie, “Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition,” The Wall Street Journal, May 30, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/y9wmp7u2. Americans
made 433 million fewer trips to restaurants at lunchtime in 2016 than in the previous year, resulting in roughly $3.2 billion in lost business
for restaurants, according to market research.

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Thompson, Derek, “The Paradox of American Restaurants,” The Atlantic, June 20, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/ycu7a2yy. While the quality and
variety of food in the United States has never been better, the restaurant industry is struggling, a journalist concludes.

Reports and Studies

“Global restaurant outlook: feeding the global consumer,” AlixPartners, October 2016, http://tinyurl.com/y9ko4x24. This report from a
consulting firm includes interviews with executives from more than 40 different restaurant concepts about how they plan to address
worldwide consumer trends in the future.
“Mobile Invasion: Mobile Payments in Restaurants,” National Restaurant Association, May 11, 2015, http://tinyurl.com/y7oxtprf. This trade
group’s white paper looks at the benefits of mobile payment and how to leverage the trend to expand a business.
“What’s Hot Culinary Forecast,” National Restaurant Association, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/nyq9nhh. This annual forecast, based on a survey
of almost 1,300 chefs, predicts food and menu trends for the coming year, including more chef-driven fast-casual restaurants and more
restaurants offering locally sourced ingredients.

The Next Step
Social Media

Breuninger, Kevin, “How social media is transforming your dinner,” CNBC, July 8, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/yd4rf6vv. To court new
customers, some restaurants are creating meals that have the potential to go viral on social media.
Hagerty, Kyle, “How Instagram And Retail Created The Perfect Recipe For Restaurant Anchors,” Bisnow, July 12, 2017,
https://tinyurl.com/y8xslxgm. Sharing photos, a staple of social media culture, has created a thriving business model for food halls being
built in areas that did not receive much foot traffic or patronage.
Yagoda, Maria, “Do Restaurants Come Up with Dishes Just for the ‘Gram?” Food and Wine, July 7, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/y9h6qqay. A
food writer examines how restaurants put in extra time and effort to ensure their dishes look appealing on social media. Many chefs and
marketing managers now collaborate in considering whether a dish is photogenic.

Technology

Baskas, Harriet, “Gate delivery could be game-changer for airports,” USA Today, July 10, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/ya2dq5ta. A new food
service application is debuting at Baltimore/Washington International Airport that will allow passengers to order food, beverages and
products on an app and have it delivered at their gate. The service is expected to expand nationwide after its debut.
Radu, Sintia, “Blue Apron promised to bring disruption to the food business. Then it got disrupted,” The Washington Post, June 21, 2017,
https://tinyurl.com/ybbojyr2. Amazon’s plans to buy Whole Foods Market has forced Blue Apron, once hoping to be more innovative than
grocery chains and restaurants, to reevaluate its business model just as the meal-kit company was launching an IPO.
Sherman, Elisabeth, “Food Delivery Market Surging Thanks to Online Orders,” Food & Wine, July 13, 2017, https://tinyurl.com/ycokpxjr.
The meal delivery market is projected to grow in value by 79 percent in the next five years due to the ease and convenience that online
ordering platforms such as Grubhub provide consumers.

Organizations
AlixPartners
2099 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W., #300, Washington, DC 20006
1-202-756-9000
www.alixpartners.com/
Global consulting firm that tracks the restaurant industry.
Black Box Intelligence
17304 Preston Road, Dallas, TX 75252
1-972-364-0490
www.blackboxintelligence.com
Consulting firm that provides restaurant-industry metrics, sales trends and performance data.
National Restaurant Association
2055 L St., N.W., #700, Washington, DC 20036

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1-202-331-5900
www.restaurant.org
One of the largest food service trade associations in the world, supporting more than 500,000 restaurant businesses.
NPD Group Inc.
900 W. Shore Road, Port Washington, NY 11050
1-516-625-0700
www.npd.com
Global information company that tracks the restaurant industry.
Statista Inc.
55 Broad St., 30th floor, New York, NY 10004
1-212-433-2270
www.statista.com/
Online portal for statistics, market research and business intelligence.
Technomic
300 S. Riverside Plaza, Suite 1600, Chicago, IL 60606
1-312-876-0004
http://www.technomic.com/
Business management consulting firm that specializes in the food service industry.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Postal Square Building, 2 Massachusetts Ave., N.E., Washington, DC 20212
1-202-691-5200
www.bls.gov
Federal agency that collects data on employment and wages.
U.S. Department of Agriculture
1400 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, DC 20250
1-202-720-2791
www.usda.gov
Government department that tracks food prices.

Notes
[1] “5 food trends to put on your menu,” National Restaurant Association, June 13, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/ycy7semb.
[2] “2016 Was the Worst Restaurant Year Since the Recession,” QSR, Jan. 13, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yaupfvd3.
[3] “From the Challenges of Technology, Delivery and Labor Costs, to Sparse Growth Possibilities, the Restaurant Industry Faces a
Defining Moment, Says AlixPartners Study,” AlixPartners, April 10, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/y72jy6ws.
[4] Annemarie Kuhns and David Levin, “Consumers Paid Less for Grocery Store Foods in 2016 Than in 2015,” United States Department
of Agriculture Economic Research Service, March 6, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/y83xurxr.
[5] “Industries at a Glance – Food Services and Drinking Places,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, data extracted July 14, 2017,
http://tinyurl.com/yddgx65a; “Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, data extracted July 17, 2017,
http://tinyurl.com/y835cqw9.
[6] “Industry Impact,” National Restaurant Association, http://tinyurl.com/y96e3c3g.
[7] Michael Edison Hayden, “19 States Increase Minimum Wage at Start of 2017,” ABC News, Jan. 1, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yd8pdnve.
[8] “From the Challenges of Technology,” AlixPartners, op. cit.
[9] Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, et al., “Where Does All the Money Go: Shifts in Household Spending Over the Past 30 Years,” The
Hamilton Project, June 2, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/y8k74kbp.
[10] Drew DeSilver, “For most workers, real wages have barely budged for decades,” Pew Research Center, Oct. 9, 2014,
http://tinyurl.com/qxuhn2o.
[11] Cameron Simons, “America’s Most Diverse Dining Destinations,” Trulia, Aug. 17, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/ydeu7fgx.

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[12] “Number of Restaurants in the Unites States from 2011 to 2016,” Statista, http://tinyurl.com/yapq4f4b.
[13] Jon C. Ogg, “Total Number of U.S. Restaurants in Decline in 2016,” 24/7WallStreet, Sept. 19, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/ycowqhtj.
[14] Julie Jargon, “Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition,” The Wall Street Journal, May 30, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/y9wmp7u2.
[15] Justin Fox, “Nobody cooks anymore, but is that a bad thing?” Chicago Tribune, Nov. 27, 2016, http://tinyurl.com/y8mf9ute.
[16] Vince Dixon, “The Rise of the Grocerant,” Eater, Feb. 27, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yclojmo5.
[17] Jargon, op. cit.
[18] “Hospitality employee turnover rate edged higher in 2016,” National Restaurant Association, March 16, 2017,
http://tinyurl.com/ycmvr9py.
[19] “Tweet What You Eat: Diners and Restaurateurs Embrace the ‘Food Selfie,’ Online Ordering and the Fight Against Food Waste,”
press release, American Express, May 22, 2017, http://tinyurl.com/yccwrxln.
[20] Julie Jargon, “Fast Food Chains, Upscale Restaurants Want to Bring You Lunch,” Dow Jones Newswires/Fox Business, June 1,
2017, http://tinyurl.com/yawwuzjz.
[21] Sarah Whitten, “Panera to add 10,000 jobs by the end of 2017 as it expands delivery,” CNBC, April 24, 2017,
http://tinyurl.com/l9n62p9.
[22] Kate Stoltzfus, “The Best Meal Delivery Services in D.C. (And We’re Not Talking Uber Eats),” DCist, June 7, 2017,
http://tinyurl.com/y9xbmyaa.

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