Investor presentation - First quarter 2021 May 2021 - bpost group
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Investor presentation First quarter 2021 Contents Financial Calendar Highlights & guidance Mail & Retail – 16-26 Cash flow – 63 12.05.2021 Parcels & Logistics Eurasia – 27-39 Balance sheet – 64 Ordinary General Meeting of Shareholders 1Q21 Highlights – 4 Parcels & Logistics N. America – 40-47 Financing Structure & Liquidity – 65 Outlook 2021 – 5 Project One – 48 Sustainability – 49-51 Additional Info 05.08.2021 (17:45 CET) bpost group at a glance Key financials FY20 – 67 Quarterly results 2Q21 Overview – 7 1Q21 results Results by segment FY20 – 68 09.11.2021 (17:45 CET) Purpose, mission and strategy – 8 EBIT bridge – 53 Relationship with State – 69 Ambitions & milestones – 9 Quarterly results 3Q21 Key financials – 54 USO & SGEI – 70 & 71 Investment rationale – 10 Results by segment – 55 European mail market – 72 Business transformation – 11 Mail & Retail – 56 & 57 Key contact – 73 Capital allocation – 12 Parcels & Logistics Eurasia – 58 & 59 Dividend policy – 13 Parcels & Logistics N. America – 60 & 61 Project governance process – 14 Corporate – 62 Management – 15 More on corporate.bpost.be/investors Disclaimer This presentation is based on information published by bpost group in its First Quarter 2021 Interim Financial Report, made available on May 5th, 2021 at 5.45pm CET and in its 2020 Annual Report available on corporate.bpost.be/investors. This information forms regulated information as defined in the Royal Decree of November 14th, 2007. The information in this document may include forward-looking statements1, which are based on current expectations and projections of management about future events. By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future whether or not outside the control of the Company. Such factors may cause actual results, performance or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Accordingly, no assurance is given that such forward-looking statements will prove to have been correct. They speak only as at the date of the Presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in factors affecting these statements. This material is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a solicitation of any offer to purchase any securities. 1 as defined among others under the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 2 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Highlights of 1Q21 1Q21 Strong start to the year driven by continued growth in parcels and e-commerce logistics on both sides of the Atlantic, and lower than expected impact of mail volume decline in Belgium Initial 2021 Group operating Mail & Retail Parcels & Logistics Parcels & Logistics guidance income Eurasia N. Am. raised, group € 1,019.9m € 70.6m € 37.3m € 8.2m adjusted EBIT up 9.1% 13.9% EBIT margin 13.0% EBIT margin 2.9% EBIT margin expected to compared to last year’s pre COVID-19 first • Total operating income at • Total operating income at • Total operating income at be above € € 506.8m (+1.4%) driven by € 287.8m (+34.8%) driven by € 282.1m (+7.9%) driven by quarter higher volume driven thriving e-commerce both continued strong growth at 310m intersegment income related domestically (Parcels BeNe Radial from existing customers to parcels volumes, partially +39.2%) and abroad (Cross- and new business signed in compensated by lower border +43.1%) 2020. revenues in Retail and lower Group adjusted than expected impact of the • Operating income Parcels B2X1 increased by +51.0% driven by • Adjusted EBIT increase of € +15.7m to € 8.2m driven by EBIT mail volume decline supported organic volumes at +54.1% growth in operating income by a positive price and mix from continued momentum in and operating leverage at € 115.5m impact e-commerce development Radial 11.3% EBIT margin • Underlying mail volume • Adjusted EBIT up € +20.4m decline at -7.8% and more than doubling, with up € +39.9m compared • Adjusted EBIT up € +5.5m margin improvement driven by to prior year (+8.4%) elevated proportion of parcels volumes handled through the integrated network 4 1 Parcels B2X sales and volumes do not include EuroSprinters and Dynagroup 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Increased 2021 group EBIT outlook Outlook FY21 In light of the strong first quarter results, and based on current assumptions of normalization for COVID-19 volumes for the rest of the year, bpost now expects the group adjusted EBIT to be above € 310m Mail & Parcels & Parcels & Group Dividend Retail Logistics Europe Logistics North & Asia America Total operating income: High single-digit % growth Mid- to high single-digit % Low to mid-single-digit % 2021 dividend in the range • Underlying Domestic in total operating income growth in total operating growth in total operating of 30-50% of IRFS net Mail volume decline up with parcels and e- income driven by Radial income profit and payable in May to -8% commerce logistics existing customers growth 2022 after the General Adjusted EBIT above • Approved mail pricing volumes expected to and new client launches, Shareholders’ Meeting, in € 310m of +6.0% normalize from elevated normalized for 2020 accordance with the new • Expected post COVID- COVID-19 levels COVID-19 spike Gross capex around dividend policy 19 recovery in VAS € 200-220m, geared Operating expenses will 4-5% adjusted EBIT towards the strategy to 7-9% adjusted EBIT margin include investments to margin grow omni-commerce grow omni-commerce logistics logistics in Europe 9-11% adjusted EBIT margin 5 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Belgium’s leading postal operator with parcel & e-commerce at a glance – group logistics activities in Europe, North-America and Asia Revenues % of total € 4,154.6m1 € 280.6m Transactional mail € 725m 18% Mail & Retail Advertising mail € 183m 4% revenues 6.8% € 1,736m EBIT 42% Press € 339m 8% Proximity and convenience retail network € 386m 9% € 519.1m € 200.9m Value added services € 103m 2% 12.5% net profit EBITDA Parcels & Logistics Parcels Be-Ne € 548m 13% Europe & Asia E-commerce logistics € 173m 4% 38,639 € 1,074m 26% Cross-border € 354m 9% average # FTE & interims Parcels & Logistics E-commerce logistics € 1,246m 30% North America € 1,329m International mail € 83m 2% 32% 2020 figures (adjusted) 1 41.8% Mail & Retail, 25.8% Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia, 32.0% Parcels & Logistics North America and 0.4% Corporate revenue 7 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Purpose, mission and strategy at a glance – group PURPOSE Your trusted guide to connect in a changing world MISSION We, the engaged employees of bpost group, take care of relations and transactions in an evolving physical and digital world. We build on our knowledge of society, customers and technologies. We create sustainable value for our worldwide customers and shareholders. STRATEGY We accelerate our transformation into an omni-commerce group close to society, while remaining an efficient mail provider in Belgium 8 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Ambitions and milestones at a glance – group AMBITIONS MILESTONES Accelerate e-commerce logistics in Europe p. 37-39 PaLo NA : 5 initiatives to further improve profitability p. 47 Joint vision for e-commerce logistics in Europe and North America p. 48 Best customer experience for receivers and senders p. 31 Support Belgian SME’s to embrace e-commerce p. 32 Increase NPS scores through innovative tracks p. 27 Further automate omni-commerce with robotics p. 40 New distribution model : ADM - Delta p. 24-25 Project One for overhead efficiency p. 49 Putting People, Planet & Proximity to ESG p. 50-52 Create additional proximity services in Belgium Retention with modernization of the existing services to Public authorities in Belgium bpost Academy 9 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
bpost group offers a strong investment rationale at a glance – group bpost group aims at being a responsible company, delivering sustainable returns to its shareholders What? How? We develop sustainable activities in the Growth in Experienced Multiple levers for A solid balance high growth e-commerce logistics & e-commerce management transformation of sheet with single parcels business in our logistics & parcels team with the legacy 'A' credit rating Belgium/Netherlands home market and through capex embedded business: natural key geographies in Europe and North and bolt-on M&A financial discipline attrition, America and a strong alternating business distribution transformation model, stable and track record predictable We continue to transform the mail and regulation, proximity business in the home market to network sustain solid cashflows optimization,… The financial ambition of CONNECT 2026 is to seek to more than compensate the EBIT loss from our Goal declining mail business in the trajectory 2021-2026, and gear for adjusted EBIT growth of bpost group 10 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
We accelerate our transformation into an omni-commerce group at a glance – group close to society, while remaining an efficient mail provider in Belgium This business transformation will require time and investments Different businesses with opposing dynamics are at different … they therefore require different levels of investments stages of their cycle with the inflection point being in the course of the business transformation unpredictable as to exact timing… EBIT Investments M&R PaLo’s PaLo’s M&R Time Time Our financial ambition is to seek to more than compensate the EBIT loss from our declining mail business in the trajectory 2021-2026, and gear for adjusted EBIT growth of bpost group. Going forward, we will give yearly financial guidance rather than long-term group EBIT targets since our business transformation is partly dependent on exogenous factors which are unpredictable in timing. 11 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Our capital allocation enables our business transformation at a glance – group To ultimately deliver durable shareholder value while being sustainable from a cash flow perspective and strive for investment grade Capital sources Capital allocation Capex Additional EBIT generation growth • For growth and maintenance, to foster EBIT • Development • Mail growth capex in E-commerce volume • Strict investment return criteria + - logistics decline • Parcels growth STARTING • Profitability Bolt-on M&A POINT enhancement plans • To accelerate growth in Radial Europe M&A • Strict investment return criteria Enable bpost CASH-FLOW group’s successful CASH FROM business BUFFER OPERATIONS transformation Working Dividends Additional while staying shareholder financially capital needs • Provide sustainable returns returns • Grow long-term shareholder value disciplined1 • Driven by the business mix and the shift away from the payments business at Radial Disposal of non-core assets Debt • Active portfolio management to identify non- reduction core assets and consider them for disposal 1 Financial discipline is reflected in our striving for an investment grade rating, based on internal cash generation 12 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
We remain committed to rewarding shareholders in a sustainable at a glance – group way, while we invest to position the company for growth IPO dividend policy until 2019 Updated dividend policy Minimum of 85% of BGAAP net profit of the mother company bpost SA/NV (unconsolidated) 1.29 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.26 1.13 Dividend pay-out ratio between 30-50% of IFRS net profit: 0.62 • Sustainable in the long run as it offers flexibility and headroom to manoeuvre through the business transformation • Timing of the annual dividend payment will be in the month of May after the Annual Shareholders Meeting 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 91% 85% 90% 85% 90% 100% 72%1 X% BGAAP net profit pay-out ratio 1 Exceptional deviation from the dividend policy due to COVID-19 to strengthen balance sheet & cash reserves for the long-term. Gross DPS on FY19 results was limited to the interim dividend paid in Dec-19 of € 0.62 13 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
All investments are tested against additional at a glance – group cash returns to shareholders • Increased rigour on all capex • Projects prioritised in line with strategic intents and targeted return • Optimising balance between growth and maintenance capex Rigorous project • Suite of metrics to ensure a balanced appraisal governance process Payback IRR NPV Consistent and thorough period application of return metrics • Projects must attain a minimum return surpassing bpost’s WACC by at least 2% while limiting the payback period • Investments reviewed periodically to monitor progress 14 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Our experienced management team has at a glance – group responsibilities down to the bottom-line Dirk Tirez Luc Cloet Kathleen Van Beveren Ilias Simpson Group CEO ad interim CEO Mail & Retail CEO Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia CEO Parcels & Logistics North CLO America Mark Michiels Leen Geirnaerdt Nico Cools CHRO CFO CIO 15 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Mail & Retail at a glance – M&R at a glance Sub-segments Revenues 2020, €m Key facts & figures 725 Transactional mail ~5.8m letters handled daily 183 Advertising mail ~20.7k 339 operational FTEs Press 387 Servicing 5m Proximity and convenience retail network letter boxes Value added services 103 5 industrial sorting centers 1,736 Total ~2,300 points of presence in Belgium 16 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Key value drivers for Mail & Retail at a glance – M&R Key value drivers From To Speed of mail volume decline -7.9% Between 9% - 11% in 2019 in 2021 Share of mail volume decline compensated 18-45% >50% through price increase over 2014-2017 Three contracts Extension Renegotiation/retendering of future 6th of the 2 press concessions until end 2022 Management contract and press concessions until end 2020; Extension compensation contractually set of the 6th Management contract until end 2021 Evolution of operating model Fixed D+1 Flexible, (mail collect and distribution) based model differentiated offering (everywhere, everyday) (prior vs. non-prior.) 17 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Domestic mail volume decline is accelerating at a glance – M&R 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191 2020 Key drivers Underlying change -4.2% -4.4% in domestic mail volume -5.0% -5.0% -5.8% -5.8% -7.9% • E-substitution at large -12.0% corporates and SMEs Transactional mail -3.7% -5.0% • Intensifying competition in -5.3% -5.9% -5.7% -8.1% -9.2% advertising media -11.3% 1.5% • Shift to digital for newspapers & magazines -3.0% -3.0% -4.7% -4.9% Advertising mail -7.2% -9.1% • Service level elasticity -18.8% from the implementation of the Alternating Distribution Model Press -3.0% -2.8% -2.8% -2.8% -3.7% -3.8% -5.3% -6.5% 1 As of start FY19 Transactional Mail excludes outbound and Press includes Ubiway press distribution 18 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Regulatory aspects at a glance – M&R Designated provider of the 4 key contracts with the Postal law of 10 February 2018 Universal Service Obligation Belgian State provides stable & predictable until end 20231 mail pricing framework • Collection, sorting, transport and distribution of • Management contract for the provision of the • Single piece mail & USO parcels falling within postal items up to 2kg and single piece postal USO (2019-2023) “small user basket” are subject to a price cap packages up to 10kg • 6th Management Contract (2016-2020 extended • Price cap2 = inflation - (volume evolution + • Collect and deliver 5x per week until end 2021, in view of the negotiation of the cost reduction factor x efficiency gains 7th Management Contract): for the provision of sharing factor) • Cover full territory of Belgium for collection and certain SGEIs, i.e. maintenance of retail network, delivery of items belonging to universal service • Volume and operational discounts allowed for cash at counter, cash payment of pensions at other USO products (bulk) • Apply uniform tariffs and an identical service home across the territory • Price increases done in practice on a yearly • 2 press concessions (2016-2020 extended for 2 basis: +5.1% on average in 2020 on all domestic years until end 2022): (1) for distribution of mail items; +6.0% on average for 2021 periodicals and (2) for distribution of newspapers 1 Refer to slide 80 for more details 2 Exact formula: Price cap = health index April n-1/health index April n-2 * (1 - [expected volume decline/(expected volume decline +1)] - 2.8%*33%) - 1 19 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
New Postal Law (Effective as of February 10, 2018) at a glance – M&R provides stable and predictable regulatory framework to increase prices in context of accelerating mail volume decline Drivers of the price cap formula Inflation Volume decline Efficiency gains Description Compensation for inflation Compensation for mail volume decline Mechanism to share 1/3 of the efficiency gains target with consumers Correlation Higher inflation results in Larger mail volume decline results Constant and fixed by law larger allowed price increase in larger allowed price increase to price cap Calculation Ratio of the health index as [V/(V+1)] with V as the expected Fixed by the law at 0.9% measured in April of the years negative volume trend on the Small (i.e., 1/3 of 2.8% efficiency logic n-1 and n-2 User Basket gains target) Illustrative example assuming 2% inflation and -6% average volume decline: Price cap1: 7.6% = 102% x [ 106.4% – 0.9% ] 1 Detailed formula: Price cap = (1 + inflation) * (1 - [V/(V+1)] – 0.9%) – 1, giving for the above example the following calculation (1+2%) * (1 – [-6%/(-6%+1)] – 0.9%) - 1 = 7.6% 20 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Price increase and mix effects expected to compensate at a glance – M&R >50% of mail volume decline Volume and price/mix impact on revenue €m Key drivers Domestic mail volume Domestic mail price/mix % Share of volume effect compensated by price/mix • Accelerating domestic mail 72% 45% 30% 31% 18% >50% volume decline 68 71 • New price cap mechanism of 67 60 Postal Law defining max price 57 increase for small user basket, 42 and serving as guideline for price increase on non-price 27 20 21 capped products 13 • Price increase partly offset by shift to less expensive 2013 14 15 16 17 2018-191 mail products Price increase on small Building on the New user basket rejected by Postal Law for price regulator regulated products 12018 was at 70%, 2019 was 58% 2020 was
Management has developed an at a glance – M&R extended set of cost control options Operating model Industrial Mail Collect & Distribution FTE Unit cost Centers Transport • Differentiated • Optimize mail • Align number of red • Introduce new • Further optimize FTE offering and sorting centers boxes to mail generation of mix Alternating footprint volume decline Georoute and time Distribution Model • Pursue continuous • Stop collect on potential • Take measures to improvement Saturday and management address absenteeism increase flexibility of • Simplify process for pick-up, delivery selected transactions and dispatch timing • Enhance customer constraints experience and • Transport productivity through optimization (fill-in digital (e.g., rate and routes) consumer preferences) 22 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
A differentiated offering enables a new distribution at a glance – M&R model to accommodate changing customer needs Differentiated offering Alternating Distribution Model Optimizing drop density as of January 1st, 2019 as of mid-March 2020 Share of houses receiving mail on any given day, % ADM: D+1 Mail Model until mid-March 2020: everywhere, everyday D+3 combined with D+1 Available to consumers Adjusted “day certain” distribution ~70 ~70 who need D+1 delivery frequency: in each street, mail will be ~55
A further review of the operating model in Belgium is at a glance – M&R required to align operations with expected market evolutions Drivers 2020-2021 2022-2023 onwards • Accelerated mail volume decline Alternating Distribution Model Delta Volumes • Strong increase of parcels volume Successful “big bang” nationwide roll- What out mid-March 2020 Re-invent the Mail & Parcels supply chain in Belgium based on expected market evolution, combining agility, cost and Delayed launch of gradual mail round service quality • Increase parcels margin reorganization process Profitability • Protect mail profitability How • Taking into account our social Full savings expected by 2022 / 2023 responsibility as one of the largest depending on the speed of the employers in Belgium • More flexibility asked by consumers reorganization • Bearing in mind evolving customer Market • Broader range of goods ordered needs (sender & receiver) demand online Volume changes linked to COVID-19 are • Responding to sustainability and other • Increasing EOY peaks taken into account market trends • Sustainability: carbon neutral Goal Market delivery • Maximize EBIT • Minimize capex trends • Urban low emission zones • Increase asset utilization • Congestion/mobility challenges 24 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Optimized employee mix and decrease of mail related at a glance – M&R FTEs will mitigate higher FTE needs in Parcels & Logistics Operational FTE evolution1 Age pyramid Natural attrition Average FTEs and interims, ‘000 Headcount bpost SA/NV per age, 31/12/20 Average 19.3 20.0 20.1 20.7 10,234 9,867 natural attrition Non pay-scale contractuals 6,667 is expected to Allocated Pay-scale contractuals 80-85% be at 1,400 to mail Civil servants FTEs/year Allocated to parcels 15-20% 2017 18 19 20 0-39 40-49 50+ Operational FTE mix evolution1 Average cost per contract type1 Indexed Other 10% 10% 9% 8% 17% 17% 16% 16% Contractual Contractual ~93 Auxiliary 39% 42% 47% 50% postman Auxiliary ~73 postman Civil servant 35% 31% 28% 26% Civil servant 100 17 18 19 20 1 bpost SA/NV scope, excluding retail network 25 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
We want to create exciting customer experiences at a glance – M&R to increase NPS scores through four innovative tracks Tracks How • By collecting and grouping all fulfillment, cross-border and last mile data we will be able to Build global digital knowledge on our have superior insights on our customers customers be it senders or receivers • By servicing our customers via a global customer engagement center where digital is the first interaction channel, we will offer a complete end-to-end service • bpost should become the only company in Belgium that has more than 5 million Make digital the first interaction medium customers identified digitally and mobile on the Belgian bpost app with our customers in Belgium • All our mail products have a digital component Technology is inherent part of the • A bpost innovation center supported by an agile way of working offers the opportunity to day-to-day operational activities and involve all our employees in innovation and our customers in the design of new products and services guarantees the right to play for all • Digital twins and Flow control towers will give real-time information on the performance of entities our factories and provide supply chain solutions for our fulfilment business New digital business lines and • Different solutions are being investigated opportunities to complement our omni-commerce revenue streams What will this bring us? Digital revenues and EBIT within the M&R business unit, as an alternative to declining mail EBIT 26 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Parcels & Logistics Europe and Asia at a glance – PaLo Eurasia at a glance Sub-segments Revenues 2020 (€m) Key facts & figures • Last-mile B2C delivery in the Peak days of up to Parcels BeNe 548 Benelux 670k parcels during end-of-year • Total of ~114m parcels in 2020 peak of 2020 • Mostly fulfilment & transport Fulfilment footprint activities in Europe spread over 8 E-commerce logistics 173 commercial locations • Activities include Radial EU, Active Ants and DynaFix covers over 8 commercial locations • International mail & parcels across 5 countries in Europe 354 • Majority of cross-border volume is Cross-border inbound mail and parcels from 3 main cross-border Europe and Asia activity centers 1,074 Total i.e. Brussels brucargo, Heathrow UK and Hong Kong 27 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Key value drivers for Parcels & Logistics Europe & Asia at a glance – PaLo Eurasia Sub-segments Key value drivers From To Parcels BeNe Ability to capture profitable growth in a competitive environment Volume growth rate of 20-30% with price/mix effect up to -6% over Double-digit volume growth rate, address price/mix, support Belgian 2016-2018 SME’s to increase online business BeNe-wide offering addressing customer requirements Focus on Belgium (sales force, BeNe-wide approach contracts, DHL partnership) Optimized last-mile operations based on parcels Parcel hubs where enough density Flexible parcels distribution characteristics and in line with delivery requirements footprint in close collaboration with Mail & Retail E-commerce Ability to organically capture market growth of ~10% p.a. (vs. in-sourcing, pan-European players) E-commerce logistics in PL, NL & BE and DynaFix Increase scale & skills by leveraging capabilities of Radial Europe and logistics Active Ants Cross-border Develop international cross-border parcels, also across continents Natural business evolution Developing international parcel flows driven by growing e-commerce activity Ability to maintain international mail volume 28 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Four strategic initiatives for Parcels BeNe at a glance – PaLo Eurasia Focus on 4 strategic initiatives Integrated Differentiate Attract key foreign Convenience BeNe offering pricing policy e-commerce players & Cost leadership • Dedicated, specialized • Strategic pricing initiatives • Partnerships with • Increased convenience sales force e-commerce players through improved receiver journey and additional pick- • Integrated commercial • E2E service offering up drop-off lockers (KPI: Net offers (“gateway to Europe”) Promoter Score) • Partnership with DHL • Flexible distribution footprint Parcels in close collaboration with Mail & Retail • Increase sorting capacity • Fulfilment infrastructure • Transport optimization • Digital excellence 29 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
We want to offer the best customer experience in at a glance – PaLo Eurasia business for receivers and for senders For receivers For senders We further adapt our parcel delivery to their preferences, and Build an integrated digital environment where SME senders can make interactions with bpost frictionless: manage all interactions with bpost, e.g. − Offer additional receiver preference options − Digital onboarding flow for a frictionless ‘early lifetime’ experience − Improve delivery timeslot logic and communication − Improved tooling for label creation and business track & − Use gamification tactics in receiver & postmen apps to trace boost usage & quality Interact with large senders’ systems & processes to align bpost’s − Offer option to chat with a human if our chatbot cannot and sender’s customer journeys to avoid overlap in a.o. help receiver communication & support Offer efficient & empathic support channels to minimize − Sign & pay for deliveries via mybpost app senders’ need to put effort in asking bpost for help with − Optimized and aligned experience through all our problems channels and customer touchpoints For C senders, offer integrated and optimized customer journey through all our channels (retail, app, web, call center …) 30 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
bpost will support Belgian SME’s to embrace at a glance – PaLo Eurasia e-commerce and increase their online business The Belgian e-commerce space is dominated by large international web shops. Only ~1/3 of parcels is sent by Belgian companies To help Belgian companies to increase their online business, we build on the recently launched “Every Business Online” offer, so it evolves to a suite of solutions: • Offer advice and solutions for doing e-commerce beyond logistics: − Consultative & community approach to increase customer’s expertise − Offer (partner) ecosystem of e-commerce tools with a.o. marketing & operational solutions • Offer an efficient, scalable & reliable first mile solution via pick-up and PUDO • Offer fulfilment solutions (start Active Ants BE in 2021) • Ensure a qualitative parcel delivery with a frictionless customer journey 31 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
We have an established position in at a glance – PaLo Eurasia the Belgian B2C/C2C parcels market 2019 parcel market1: 100% = € 1.6bn Unique selling proposition Offer best last-mile and broadest delivery options, B2C supported by acquisitions and partnerships: B2B • Home delivery 7/7 & evening delivery, including high-end deliveries (2-man) C2C • ~2,300 pick-up & drop-off points CAGR 2019-25e1, % volume growth • >360 parcel lockers in Belgium ~9% (2 new parcel lockers every week in 2020) • Click & Collect ~3% • Non-exclusive partnerships with DPDHL for B2C parcel delivery into Belgium (from Germany/France & Benelux) B2C / C2X B2B 1 Source: Effigy 32 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Partnership with DHL Parcels NL allows to cover the full at a glance – PaLo Eurasia BeNe region and to capture important cross-border flows Launched in June 2018 Purchasing behavior • NL is the most important import country to BE (~30% of import flows) • BE consumers mainly buy from NL players such as Bol.com and Coolblue Large NL-based e-commerce players • Looking for a BeNe wide offering with regards to last-mile • Benchmarking prices on a BeNe level Competitive offering • Very competitive & dynamic region with many large players such as PostNL, DHL, DPD, FedEx 33 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
The parcels operating model at a glance – PaLo Eurasia will be continuously optimized Optimize distribution cost Evolve towards dedicated Increase sorting capacity using drop density of mail parcel infrastructure to match rounds customer requirements • Maximize parcels in mail rounds • Nationwide Parcel distribution footprint to • Increase sorting capacity in the existing centers • Cost advantage due to higher drop density accommodate distribution of parcels that are of Brussels, Charleroi & Antwerp to cope with leading to lower unit costs not in mail rounds increasing volume (optimizing sorting footprint • Benefits for customer proximity and special mail & parcels) services e.g. late-in services, “large scale” • Use technology (e.g. address recognition) evening distribution or same day distribution 34 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Supported by acquisitions, bpost group has assets at a glance – PaLo Eurasia along the entire value chain of e-commerce logistics 1 2 Order Fulfilment • Order management • Order reception in warehouses in the proximity of clients • Payment services, tax services and fraud prevention • Preparation for shipment Realtime technology 4 3 Customer Care Delivery • Phone, email, social media & • Hybrid transport network for chat support high-end and urgent delivery • Advanced analytics • Last-mile delivery 35 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
E-commerce logistics development in Europe can be at a glance – PaLo Eurasia accelerated thanks to an already strong European footprint 8 ~1,250 Commercial fulfilment FTEs centers / facilities The UK Netherlands Germany Poland Belgium Italy 5 ~€ 173m Countries 2020 revenue Cold chain facility Fulfilment sites Personalized logistics 36 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
E-commerce logistics in Europe has at a glance – PaLo Eurasia 2 complementary engines of growth Type of clients E-tailers & click-and-mortar (omnichannel) Pure e-tailers Size of clients Medium/large Small/medium Level of automation Adapted per customer High (AutoStore + automated packaging) Level of customization High, product and price tailored by client Very low UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland Current locations (6 sites, 7th site in March 2021 in DE) the Netherlands (2 sites) Grow mainly organically in the countries where we Grow organically by opening 2 new international Ambitions are already present or in countries marked by sites per year in other European countries outside flexible & low-cost labour and easy access to NL. A new site will open in Germany and Belgium in Germany, complemented by targeted bolt-on M&A 2021 37 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Radial Europe, just like in the US, covers all key steps at a glance – PaLo Eurasia of the value chain unlike most competitors Technology Services Logistics - Fulfilment Logistics - Transport & delivery Customer care/Return management After Market 38 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Zoom on Innovation in omni-commerce at a glance – PaLo Eurasia Further modernize and automate operations with Robotics, reducing dependency and cost for labour acquisition & retention Context & ambitions How • Growing demand and industry shortage in reliable warehouse Technology capex focused on Innovation driven Initiatives to return labour, accelerated under COVID-19, will continue to drive sustainable productivity increases and labour expense savings over increased labour need and costs time • Cost of integration and implementation of robotics technologies • Current pilot with robots integrating with humans in the picking in fulfilment decreasing as more providers and solutions enter process to significantly increase picking UPH market and drive efficiencies • UI enhancements: handheld scanning devices • Productivity gains of 10%+ possible across certain process paths • Robotic kitting: establishment of robotic pods that provide reducing Radial’s cycle time automated kitting for clients with specific product characteristics. • Packaging profile accuracy: enhancement of weight and measure • Automation reduces risk exposure and cost linked to overall hiring devises needs to both bpost group and our clients • Scalable tech will help bpost group be flexible and well positioned to capture clients’ forecasted demand peaks in coming years 39 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Parcels & Logistics North America at a glance – PaLo N. Am. at a glance Sub-segments Revenues 2020, €m US e-commerce logistics Capabilities to support Objectives provider fulfilling 83m mid-sized e-tailers to parcels p.a. with proven expand cross-border and • Growth engine for bpost E-commerce logistics1 1,246 client base, IT last-mile distribution in group, to be a leading infrastructure and Canada and Australia omni-commerce capabilities along the E2E value chain service provider in the US with healthy financial International mail performance International Mail2 83 solutions and catalogue fulfilment through US • Grow with cross-border companies commerce • International mail providers delivering Total 1,329 profit through infrastructure optimization 1 Radial North America, Landmark Global, Apple Express and FDM 2 MSI, Imex, Mail Inc. = The Mail Group 40 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Acquisition of US-based Radial at a glance – PaLo N. Am. on 16 November 2017 Acquisition rationale Key acquisition data Radial Global Our growth • Enterprise Value: $ 820m • Integrated e-commerce logistics provides access to a larger and more • Sales 2017: $ 1,082m attractive profit pool • EBITDA 2017: $ 57m (5.3% margin) • Radial as growth engine and key profit contributor • 100% acquisition of the shares • Financed through a € 650m 8-year bond issue carrying a coupon of Presence in the US and Europe 1.25% (issued 4 July 2018) • Strengthen US position building on presence with Landmark Global • Scale bpost group’s e-commerce logistics capabilities in the Benelux and Europe Strong growth of e-commerce Key indicators for Radial North America • e-commerce is growing rapidly with US being an attractive and advanced space (+15% p.a. growth of online retail over 2004-2022e) • TCV of new business went from $ 217m in 2018 to $ 385m in 2019 and $ 1,188.4m in 2020, also positively impacted by longer-term • Transatlantic e-commerce is growing at >25% p.a. with 20% of European contracts parcels coming from the US • ~8,900 average # of FTEs & interims (2020) Knowledge and experience • 21 fulfilment centers mainly in the US, a 22nd fulfilment center is • Knowledge and experience of the e-commerce logistics chain increase announced and will open end 2Q21 exponentially with the acquisition of an experienced player 41 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Radial North America offers multiple services at a glance – PaLo N. Am. across the entire e-commerce logistics value chain Revenues Radial North share % America assets Description and key strengths Payment, Tax, Fraud Zero software Processing global payments, • 98.3% approval rate vs. 97.1% industry average maximizing successful authorization and Fraud and reconciling tax districts and • 1.6% manual review rate vs. 25% industry average Technology Prevention global duties 16% Omnichannel 8,700 Stores with fulfilment Optimizing efficiency of order • Ability to handle complex orders management, ship-from-store and Technology 12,500 Dropship suppliers in-store pick-up • < 12 weeks to deployment vs. competition 4-6 months • Scalability of technology Warehousing & 21 fulfilment sites Adapting warehouse management • 80%+ orders shipped day 0 and parcels preparation to fulfilment in North America e-commerce with pragmatic • ~100% US coverage automation • Experience of scaling employees / workforce up to ~20k Operations peak capacity 75% Freight 100% Managing a large network of carriers • Rates 5-15% cheaper than in-sourcing for mid-sized players for a seamless customer experience Management Asset light • Clients reached in 2.4 days on average Customer Care 9% 3,400+ Having a single view of customer’s • Advanced data analytics history and profile combined with Seats across 4 sites leading self-service tech 42 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Radial North America addressable market at a glance – PaLo N. Am. Online revenue e-tailers, US Addressable e-commerce logistics sector $ 800bn1 expected US online retail revenue in 2021 ~$ 800bn total Radial’s target $ 53-67bn US online Retail audience addressable e-commerce e-commerce e-commerce $ 2,000m • Mid-market segment revenue logistics ($ 20-200m online revenue) $ 265-270bn • Enterprise segment ($ 200-600m) • Some selected key accounts $ 20m ($ 600m-$ 2bn) 1 Source: Forrester Data, Online Retail Forecast, 2021 43 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Radial North America competitive landscape at a glance – PaLo N. Am. Independent e-commerce logistics providers Unique selling proposition • Radial has 20 years of experience in e-commerce logistics • It’s one of the few players to provide a one-stop shop Omnichannel Fulfilment Freight Customer Care & PT&F across the e-commerce value chain • These key features are making the difference ‐ Omnichannel & fraud prevention technology, such as Radial Order Management1 (ROM) ‐ Scale: national US coverage ‐ Quick time to launch ‐ Low start-up costs ‐ Robust service offering 1 for which Radial is positioned amongst the 2021 technology leaders in the global Omnichannel OMS market, according to the Quadrant Knowledge Solutions study 44 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Positive commercial development at Radial and at a glance – PaLo N. Am. financial results exceeding expectations in 2020 Commercially heading in the right direction FY18 & FY19 results impacted, as expected, by • We continue to reap benefits from our customer-focused • Churn (mostly in Fulfilment & Transport) and repricing, with approach, strong new signings in 2019, along with continued revenue growth from new and existing customers not fully improvement in NPS. Strong 2019 peak with a double-digit compensating revenue loss from clients terminating with Radial. increase in shipped parcels vs. 2018. • Webstore business phase-out, completed by end FY19 • Starting in 2Q18 and continuing in 2019 and 2020, we are seeing a positive contract renewal cycle for existing clients. FY20 EBIT uplift driven by high e-commerce • New contracts signed had a TCV of $ 385m for FY19, which was volumes translating into increased operating above target and above the previous 3 years ($ 150m in 2016 and leverage 2017, $ 217m in 2018). • Revenue increase mainly driven by Radial North America • Very strong TCV development continued in 2020, accelerated by recording significant growth of existing customers (+26.8%) driven COVID-19, with $ 1,188m total contract value signed, also by COVID-19 as well as new clients launched in 2019 (sales more positively impacted by longer-term contracts. than tripling), slightly offset by client churn. • FY20 adjusted EBIT above break-even at € 32.8m for PaLo NA 45 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
To further succeed, at a glance – PaLo N. Am. PaLo NA will implement 5 initiatives Transform the functional • Enhanced organization model around client accounts organization into a client • Cross-functional, agile account team to: (1) proactively & efficiently resolve issues in a coordinated way, (2) centric one improve client’s ease of navigation and interface and (3) generate business insights for the client Target the emerging brands • Radial currently has pockets of open space across its network that could fit “small” brands size profile segment to optimize • Radial drives a sales & marketing approach to compete on this segment through a standardized Value available fulfillment space Proposition • Radial is now working on a go-to-market strategy for ROM building on: Scale-up Radial Order − Flexibility to support and scale based on evolving market conditions & customer behaviors Management for the benefit − Cross selling ROM to existing Radial clients using other services of all entities of the group − Leveraging clients references for building brand recognition Further modernize and • Productivity gains of +10% possible across certain process paths reducing Radial’s cycle time automate operations with • Automation reduces risk exposure and cost linked to overall hiring needs Robotics • Scalable tech will help Radial to be flexible and well positioned to capture peaks in coming years Leverage synergies between • Integrate Landmark for all Radial clients as service offering the entities of PaLo NA and • Streamline systems further right size SG&A • Implement labor management systems for fulfillment and increase automation in billing process 46 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
E-commerce logistics NA & EU have a joint vision at a glance – PaLo N. Am. for 2026 and kicked off several concrete workstreams Ambitions Joint workstreams VISION Organizational structure and Joint Client Development • Bi-directional references and opportunities 2026 governance facilitates decision- • Knowledge sharing on geographies and prospects making and implementation • Shared marketing strategy and scale Commercial Effectiveness Support Grow omni- • Align Sales Ops: Standard Practices, Cadences & Metrics • Benchmark numbers and KPI’s for NA and EU Converging view Radial fulfilment • Commercial Systems (e.g., SalesForce) commerce model with streamlined revenues and EBIT, operations and KPIs Fulfilment & Carrier Mgmt methodologies • Best Practices scaling, automation, workforce • Leverage relationships with global carriers (e.g., DHL, with a substantial FedEx, UPS) • Knowledge sharing about smaller brands operations part in (e.g., Active Ants) Improved and aligned technology technology to support cross-border Technology Development development • ROM as Global OMS platform • Aligned WMS & TMS strategy • Sharing expertise in other tech domains (e.g., PTF) 47 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Project One targets group-wide overhead efficiency at a glance – group Context Ambition • The intent is to self-finance our business transformation Reduce the cost/revenue ratio with ONE percent every year through a focus on value driven spending as part of our DNA • As bpost group is transforming from a traditional mail company into an omni-commerce player that competes against other 3PL players, cost consciousness becomes more than ever important to embed in every layer of our organization How • We need to build new ways of doing things and abandon old • Simplify E2E-processes – make bpost group a simpler and future ones that have lost their value proof organization by inspecting and adapting end to end processes and encouraging cross-BU cooperation • Cost clearing / Hygienic cost revision – re-focus the available resources where possible to support the business transformation • Promote inter-mobility – focus on re-orientation to jobs with the highest added value thereby limiting external recruitment 48 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Sustainability is at the heart of our activities at a glance – group 3-pillar CSR strategy linked to United Nations People Proximity Planet Selected awards and recognition we care about our we are close to the we strive to reduce our employees and engage society impact on the • EcoVadis (clients index): Gold rating them environment • Ethibel Indexes: reconfirmed as a constituent of the Ethibel Sustainability Index (ESI) Excellence Europe since 19/03/2018 • Sustainalytics: score 17.7% (low risk) Shared Value Creation • • MSCI: Score A Vigeo Eiris: 91% (sector average: 71%) • Continuity of our business • ISS: Governance Score: 5, Environment Score: 1, Social Score: 3 • Employee satisfaction and engagement • Carbon Disclosure Project: Score B (peer average C) • Customer satisfaction • Employee health & • To our community • Green fleet safety • To our suppliers • Green buildings • Employee training and talent development • To our customers through our services • Waste management Ambitious CO2 reduction targets • Ethics & diversity • Social dialogue • Since 2007 bpost group has cut its CO2 emissions by almost 40% • Target of reducing CO2 emissions from activities by at least 20% by 2030 • By 2030, at least 50% of vehicles will be fully electric 49 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Sustainability, the road to a resilient bpost group at a glance – group Committed member of the Belgian Alliance for Climate Action 12 October 2020 Science Based bpost group Signing of the Targets Target setting Belgian SDG Public commitment program Charter to keep Global to set ambitious 2020 CEO engagement to Warming below targets COP 21 Paris the 2°C threshold 2018-2019 2017 2015 2016 50 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Putting People, Planet & Proximity into ESG at a glance – group Environment Social Governance Carbon footprint reduction program COVID response management: ensuring Materiality assessment: involving our • LNG trucks & Double Deck Trailers our people are safe and protected in stakeholders in our sustainability accordance with the latest health & roadmap • Ecozone Mechelen: Low & zero safety regulations emission delivery — — Joining the Belgian Alliance for Climate • LED lighting implementation Dual Learning: inclusive program Change: exchange of best practices with • Circular business: recycling more providing low skilled employees with a suppliers and clients than 10 million kg of e-waste in the formal diploma Netherlands 51 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
1Q21 Results
1Q21 EBIT above expectations, driven by continued volume growth 1Q21 in Parcels & Logistics and lower than expected impact of mail decline € million 115.5 -1.7 3.2 15.7 +39.9 20.4 75.6 5.5 112.3 4.6 Adjusted1 Reported 71.0 EBIT Mail & PaLo PaLo Corporate EBIT 1Q20 Retail Eurasia N. America 1Q21 1Adjusted excludes items that are non-recurring in nature and significant (> € 20m). All profits or losses on disposal of activities are adjusted whatever the amount they represent, as well as the amortization and impairment on the intangible assets recognized throughout the Purchase Price Allocation (PPA) of the acquisitions. Reversals of provisions whose addition had been excluded from income are also adjusted whatever the amount they represent. 53 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Key financials 1Q21 1Q21 € million Reported Adjusted1 1Q20 1Q21 1Q20 1Q21 %↑ 1 Amortization and impairments of intangibles recognized Total operating income 934.6 1,019.9 934.6 1,019.9 9.1% during PPA are adjusted, Operating expenses 797.4 842.7 797.4 842.7 5.7% leading to increase in EBITDA 137.2 177.2 137.2 177.2 29.2% EBIT (€ +3.2m) and income tax expense (€ +0.8m) Depreciation & Amortization 66.1 64.9 61.5 61.7 0.3% EBIT 71.0 1 112.3 75.6 1 115.5 52.8% Margin (%) 7.6% 11.0% 8.1% 11.3% 2 Adjusted FCF excludes the cash Financial result -4.3 -2.5 -4.3 -2.5 -40.8% Radial receives on behalf of its Profit before tax 71.5 109.8 76.1 113.0 customers for performing billing 48.5% services Income tax expense 23.6 1 29.2 23.8 1 29.9 25.6% Net profit 47.9 80.6 52.2 83.0 59.0% FCF 194.2 2 147.4 246.2 2 160.0 -35.0% Net Debt at March 31 619.9 388.3 619.9 388.3 -37.4% Capex 20.5 19.6 20.5 19.6 -4.2% Average # FTEs and interims 34,695 37,602 34,695 37,602 8.4% 1 Unaudited figures 54 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Results by segment 1Q21 1Q21 € million M&R PaLo Eurasia PaLo N. Am. Corp Eliminations Group External operating income 446.9 283.9 281.1 7.9 0.0 1,019.9 Intersegment operating income 59.9 3.9 0.9 102.6 -167.3 0.0 Total operating income 506.8 287.8 282.1 110.6 -167.3 1,019.9 Operating expenses 414.6 245.5 256.7 93.3 -167.3 842.7 EBITDA 92.2 42.3 25.4 17.3 177.2 Depreciation & Amortization 22.0 5.7 19.2 17.9 64.9 Reported EBIT 70.2 36.6 6.2 -0.6 112.3 Margin (%) 13.9% 12.7% 2.2% -0.6% 11.0% Adjusted EBIT 70.6 37.3 8.2 -0.6 115.5 Margin (%) 13.9% 13.0% 2.9% -0.6% 11.3% 55 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
Top-line decrease driven by COVID-19 impacts on retail 1Q21 – M&R and lower than expected impact of domestic mail volume decline M&R external operating income, € million Domestic Mail Transactional Advertising Operating income decline at € -3.4m: -9.6% underlying volume decline against -5.4% underlying volume decline against 1Q20 457.8 -8.8% in 1Q20, slightly supported by softer comparable base in Mar-20: • € -1.0m working days impact, COVID-19 communication in Mar-21. ‐ -22.4% YTD Feb-21, against tough • € -21.5m volume (-7.8% underlying comparable base of -3.9% from pre No change in known structural trends of 1 Transactional -3.1 volume decline) COVID-19 months. continued e-substitution, higher • € +19.1m from price and mix impact. acceptance of e-documents at the ‐ +41.1% Mar-21, better than Mar-20 at receivers’ side and digitization of C2B -39.4% from COVID-19 ban on Advertising -0.2 communication through mobile apps. promotions and non-essential retail 2 closure during lockdown of Mar-20. 1 2 3 1 2 3 Press -0.1 Proximity and Press Proximity and convenience Value added services 4 convenience -8.2 -1.0% underlying volume decline, retail network Higher revenues from fines solution which retail network benefiting from a good performance in were negatively impacted during lockdown Periodicals. Lower Ubiway retail revenues from of Mar-20. Value added reduced footfall as a result of COVID-19, 5 0.7 especially in travel environments. services Decline in banking & finance revenues due to the low interest rate environment and 1Q21 446.9 less ATM transactions. -10.8 3 4 5 56 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
EBIT increase driven by high parcel volumes handled through 1Q21 – M&R the mail network and lower than expected impact of mail decline € million Mail & Retail External operating income 1Q20 457.8 1Q21 446.9 %↑ -2.4% Key takeaways 1Q21 Transactional 193.3 190.2 -1.6% • Total operating income up € +6.8m (+1.4%) driven by (1) higher Advertising 47.8 47.6 -0.4% intersegment operating income related to higher parcels volumes, Press 86.1 86.0 -0.1% Proximity and convenience retail network 103.1 94.9 -7.9% partially compensated by (2) lower Ubiway retail revenues and (3) Value added services 27.5 28.2 2.7% lower than expected impact of mail volume decline combined with Intersegment operating income 42.2 59.9 41.8% price increases and mix impact. Total operating income 500.0 506.8 1.4% Operating expenses 413.8 414.6 0.2% • Operating expenses (incl. adjusted D&A) remained nearly stable (€ - 1.3m or +0.3%): EBITDA 86.1 92.2 7.1% Depreciation & Amortization 21.6 22.0 2.1% ‐ Higher payroll & interim costs driven by (1) headcount from higher Reported EBIT 64.6 70.2 8.7% parcel volumes and (2) price impact amongst other from salary Margin (%) 12.9% 13.9% indexation, merit increases and phasing holidays; together with Adjusted EBIT 65.2 70.6 8.4% higher costs for fleet and lower recoverable VAT Margin (%) 13.0% 13.9% Additional KPIs ‐ Compensated by the favourable evolution of the FTE wage mix, the Underlying Mail volume decline -9.9% -7.8% decrease of material costs from Ubiway retail and increased sorting Transactional -8.8% -9.6% activities cross-charged to PaLo Eurasia driven by growth in parcel Advertising -16.5% -5.4% volumes handled through the mail network. Press -5.2% -1.0% • M&R adjusted EBIT increased by € +5.5m to € 70.6m 57 1Q21 Roadshow presentation
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