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UFRGSMUN | UFRGS Model United Nations ISSN 2318-3195 | v. 7 2019 | p. 374-421 CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLO- CATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES Anna Angélica Nogueira Amaral1 Artur Holzschuh Frantz2 Beatriz Vieira Rauber3 Lorenso Andreoli da Silva4 Mariane Di Domenico5 ABSTRACT Created in 2011, the Crisis Response Window (CRW) of the International Develop- ment Association (IDA) is a part of a broader system of development promotion. Under the contemporary scenario of ever-increasing challenges to overcoming underdevelopment, rapid response mechanisms gain importance in the world sta- ge. The present Study Guide seeks to address the theoretical and practical debates underlying previous and current actions of the CRW, assessing its role as a deve- lopment finance institution. Furthermore, the conditions for IDA action, as well as for the CRW to be utilized, are described, followed by short case studies of said situations. Additionally, the historical background and the statement of the issue are followed by the presentation of the previous international actions taken in this regard. IDA, therefore, should debate both the technical aspects of the criteria for CRW funds allocation and the practical dynamics of approving projects and setting strategies. 1 Anna Angélica is a fifth-year student of International Relations at UnB. 2 Artur is a third-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and Director at IDA. 3 Beatriz is a fourth-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and Director at IDA. 4 Lorenso is a fifth-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and Director at IDA. 5 Mariane is a second-year student of International Relations at UFRGS and Assistant-Director at IDA. 375
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION 1 INTRODUCTION Throughout the 20th century, economic and social development have been among the main concerns of governments and international ins- titutions. The international community witnessed, during the first half of that century, the severe consequences of economic crises and generalized war for their populations. The Great Depression of 1929 put a large number of countries in economic recession and their populations in severe diffi- culties to ensure their subsistence. Right after the world had overcome the aforementioned crisis, World War II destroyed mainly the European conti- nent, putting the states of the region in economic and social scourge once more (Hobsbawm 1995). The creation of the World Bank Group (WBG) occurred in this his- torical context. Established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods conference, the World Bank was founded with the purpose of financing and delivering eco- nomic aid for those countries destroyed by the Second World War which, in this case, were European economies. The Bank was successful at this task, since the countries in Europe demonstrated industrial and economic grow- th at the beginning of the 1950s. Having achieved the primary mission of the Bank, the administration changed its focus from reconstruction to de- velopment and poverty mitigation in the next decades (Carvalho 2004). It was due to this change of purpose that the International Develo- pment Association (IDA) was created. Founded in 1959, IDA has the objecti- ve of reducing poverty and inequality in countries with low Gross Domestic Product per capita by granting long-term loans to finance infrastructure, social security systems, and aid to their financial health, especially con- sidering their external debt solvency. Since its creation, IDA grew in the number of member-countries, budget, and scope, as it started to grant emergency loans for nations severely impaired by a crisis in the new mil- lennium (IDA 2019). Having acquired considerable knowledge in fighting crisis, supported by the international community, IDA decided to propo- se the creation of the Crisis Response Window (CRW) in 2009. The CRW is a mechanism through which IDA can disburse amounts of capital, in the form of loans and grants, to provide quick financial aid for developing cou- ntries struck by exogenous shocks that lead to crises (IDA 2018a). Therefore, the present study guide has the objective of analyzing the CRW of IDA. In order to do so, this paper will be divided into four main parts. The first one will present the history of the World Bank Group, IDA and the CRW in order to understand the historical factors that led to the creation of the World Bank and other institutions and mechanisms. Mo- reover, it is important to understand the purposes for the creation of these organizations, since they are directly related to each of the objects of histo- rical analysis. The importance of IDA’s financial assistance for development and the combat of inequality in developing countries will also be addres- 376
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES sed, followed by the description of the creation of the CRW. In the second part, the functioning of the CRW will be approached, discussing the requisites that countries struck by crises must fulfill to ac- cess CRW funds. The types of crises that could trigger IDA’s aid, how the CRW is financed and the challenges that the Board of IDA encounters to determine if a country qualifies for this aid will also be considered in this part. At last, the three types of crises considered by the CRW will be expo- sed. The difficulties and singularities of each type will be discussed, as well as the particularities that lenders of financial aid have to consider in order to mitigate the losses each crisis provokes. In the third section of this paper, previous actions carried out by the CRW will be exposed. In this section, examples of the crises mentioned above, and the Board’s strategies to aid those countries will be discussed. In the final section, the position of each member of the Board regarding the CRW mechanism and its possible allowances will be clarified. 2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND The World Bank (WB) was created in 1944 during the Bretton Woods Conference. It is one of the major institutions for aid and development in existence, having poverty reduction and economic growth as its primary mission. It consists of five institutions, those being the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Develop- ment Agency (IDA), the International Financial Corporation (IFC), the Mul- tilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and the International Cen- tre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) (WBG 2019c). The IBRD is responsible for lending to middle-income and creditwor- thy low-income nations, while IDA provides credits6 and grants to the poo- rest countries’ governments. Together, these two institutions are generally referred by the term World Bank (WB) (WBG 2019c). 2.1 CREATION OF THE WORLD BANK The 20th century represented a great turn in international relations in many different forms, disassembling its common manners and calling for a new architecture of the world order. In the aftermath of the Great Depression and World War II, forty-four nations intending to build new pillars for the international economic order gathered in the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference between July 1st and 22nd of 1944, la- ter known as the Bretton Woods Conference (Dreher, Sturm, and Vreeland 2007). 6 IDA’s credits consist of interest-free loans (Baldwin 1961). 377
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION The Bretton Woods Conference focused on ruling a new monetary and financial system understanding the need to overcome the limitations of the gold standard and competitive exchange devaluation policies (Car- valho 2004). Two main proposals guided the conference, one raised by the English economist Sir John Maynard Keynes and the other by the Ameri- can Harry Dexter White. In spite of their diametrically opposite positions, they agreed on the concern regarding the reemergence of a new period of recession, similar to the 1929 crisis and consented on the essentiality of economic cooperation based on full employment and economic stability to promote prosperity and peace among the nations. It resulted in the esta- blishment of three institutions that were essential to reshape the post-war world: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) and the World Bank (WB) (Pereira 2009). Through understating the maintenance of the monetary system and trade policy as two of the national governments’ fundamental responsibili- ties, the monetary disorder taught the value of cooperation. The interwar detrimental experience with restrictive and discriminatory policies made clear the urgency for a multilateral organization to prevent national go- vernments from returning to the allegedly harmful protectionist policies. Those cluster ideas facilitated an international comprehension that led to the creation of the IMF and the concept of an International Trade Orga- nization (ITO) that could only take place after the end of the war, broadly discussed in Bretton Woods (Gavin and Rodrik 1995). However, this paper should focus on the other institution created in Bretton Woods, the World Bank, initially known as the International Bank for Reconstruction (IBR). In a time when capital had already been channe- led bilaterally by private capital market, loans and grants, the WB concept was based on a multilateral mechanism responsible for directing capital from plentiful nations to areas in need of economic development, blurring the obvious economic and political advantages of the bilateral agreements (Gavin and Rodrik 1995). The WB was created to assist rebuilding European nations that were devastated by the War, reason why it was originally called the Internatio- nal Bank for Reconstruction. The development component of the Interna- tional Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) was incorporated years after, with the return of growth in Europe and when other actors began to take upon themselves the role of supporting nations’ reconstruc- tion, the WB policies suffered a reorientation, shifting its focus to develo- ping countries, especially to its members in Latin America, Africa, and Asia during the 1950s and 1960s (WBG 2019a). A new scope of the World Bank Group (WBG)7 works began in the 7 In the present study guide, the term “World Bank Group” refers to the institutions’ five agencies – IBRD, IDA, IFC, ICSID, and MIGA –, whereas “World Bank” refers only to the first two agencies. Throu- ghout the 1950s and 1960s, when IFC and IDA were created, respectively, the World Bank became the World Bank Group to better represent its new and broad institutional framework (WBG 2019a). 378
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES 1970s with its growing attention to poverty eradication. It was characteri- zed by the exponential increase of loans and the rise of sectoral and struc- tural adjustment programs, aiming the reform of developing countries’ ins- titutions in the context of economic liberalization. The mandate of Robert McNamara as the WBG President, from 1968 to 1981, was fundamental for the WB’s reorientation since his conception of international security was closely related to poverty and social injustice (Pereira 2009). As a result, the WBG actions shifted from “reconstruction” to “development”. Neverthe- less, the Bank’s new model was very criticized since the reduction of the public sector role in the face of privatization policies had resulted in incre- ased unemployment rates and decreased health and education qualities. Since the early years of the WBG, development was claimed to be one of the key goals of the organization, always following the Bank’s neoclassi- cal approach (Medani 1986). It is relevant to understand the main theoreti- cal perspectives concerning development, in order to grasp the reasoning behind actions taken by IDA and the criticism it receives. As with most aspects of economic sciences, theories on develop- ment can be generally classified into two broad groups: orthodox and he- terodox (Cruz e Silva and Gonçalves 2015). The first one is based on tra- ditional neoclassical principles and is more usually represented by the Theory of Modernization. This approach suggests that societies must go through an almost evolutionary process with several determined phases, which vary from author to author, in order to achieve the status of “mo- dern society” – characterized by westernized political structures and an open-market economy. The second one is a general term to designate the- ories that oppose the neoclassical mainstream. One of the most relevant heterodox approaches is the Theory of Dependency, which defends that governments should participate more actively in the economy to achieve development, be it by controlling exchange rates, promoting national ca- pitals or by protecting the internal industry and providing public funding to less competitive sectors (Reyes 2001). The World Bank Group generally adheres to the modernization theory, setting the guidelines to be followed by impoverished nations to achieve development in accordance with the liberal international economic order (Medani 1986). This theoretical description above is intended to inform the sub- sequent effort to understand contemporary development dynamics and the role of the World Bank in the process. Throughout the 20th and early 21st centuries, its theoretical paradigm became more pragmatic. In some instances, such as negotiation of foreign debts and implementation of aus- tere fiscal policies, the World Bank, alongside the International Monetary Fund (IMF), kept faithful to its orthodox neoclassical origins (Rapley 2007). However, in critical situations, such as environmental crises or deep econo- mic recessions, the institution embraces heterodox ideas, most notably by 379
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION encouraging public spending to promote countercyclical measures8. The duality of this approach is relevant in order to keep continuous contact between development finance institutions and low-income countries, so that crisis response may be faster and more appropriate (Velde 2011). Nowadays, the WBG is the primary international institution respon- sible for promoting economic development in the world by sponsoring projects of multiple scopes in emerging market countries as well as the world’s most impoverished economies (Dreher, Sturm, and Vreeland 2007). With the participation of 189 member states, the WBG has over 10.000 em- ployees (WBG 2019b) and has disbursed for the year of 2018 resources that reached the amount of USD 46 billion (WBG 2018a). Thus, new themes were added to the Bank’s agenda, such as conflict prevention, post-conflict re- construction, corruption, social development and development guided by the community. 2.2 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCY (IDA) ONSET In the early 1950s, the rising success of the WB’s initial goal in Europe and the advent of its new vision aiming to help developing countries led to the understanding that, in order to reach the more economically vul- nerable countries, it was necessary to soften the Bank’s loan terms so that these nations would be able to afford to borrow the financial assets needed for their growth (IDA 2019). Bearing that in mind, the International Deve- lopment Association (IDA) was created in 1959 as a subsidiary of the IBRD seeking to reduce poverty and inequalities in the global living conditions by providing countries with lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita with interest-free9 and long-term loans, with a grace period of 10 years and payment period of 35 to 40 years (Lavelle 2011). Such credits were to be used for investing in infrastructure, in human capital, and in sectors that need rapid and efficient reforms for sustainable growth. Additionally, the institution also provides debt relief for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC), to help them ensure their debt sustainability (IDA 2019). Essentially, IDA was designed to enable WB poorest client countries to repay their lo- ans aiming at their development. Initially, the Articles of Agreement for IDA had 15 signatories, and, 8 Countercyclical measures, also known as countercyclical policies, refer to instances in which gover- nments combine fiscal and monetary policies to soften the effects of the cycles of growth and crises in capitalist economies so as to promote more stable and sustained development. This a common concept in most macroeconomic theories, but the specific means to achieve such goals may vary from one the- orist to others (Taylor 2000). 9 An interest-free loan, also known as a soft loan or concessional terms, is a term used to describe capital lending operations that bypass the normal process by providing loans with lenient terms of repayment. It is based on either a no or a low-interest charge, maybe enabling the payment in incon- vertible local currency – meaning that the creditor can agree not to convert it for a determined period of time (Baldwin 1961). 380
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES within eight months of its creation, IDA already counted with 51 members and had allocated credits worth over USD 100 million to four countries10. Nowadays, IDA has grown in significance and is composed of 173 nations, whose representatives meet twice a week in regular sessions and every three years to analyze and replace the funds of the Association. Currently, the objectives of the institution comprise reducing disparities between countries, focusing on primary education, basic health, access to water and sanitary treatment, and a better insertion of the population into the natio- nal economy, increasing productivity (IDA 2019). As explained prior to this section, IDA and the IBRD form together the WBG development lending arm, which made it possible for them to operate as a single entity. For a country to be a member of IDA, it must be a member of IBRD. They also share the same president and the IBRD Board of Gover- nors and Board of Executive Directors are officially valid for IDA as well, if these countries are also members of IDA. There are 24 Executive Direc- tors, 5 of them being appointees from each of the five largest shareholders, while the other 19 are elected by the remaining Governors, clustered in 19 groups according to their cultural and ethnic characteristics, each group electing its representative (Engel 2012). Usually, the Board’s decisions are consensual, but the WB uses a voting system based on quotas, determined by the countries’ amount of shares in the institution or their level of subs- cription. The appointees are able to cast the number of votes held by the member that nominated them, while the elected representatives cast the number of votes that they received in the election (Engel 2012). Distinctly from the IBRD, IDA does not raise its financial capital on international capital markets. It requires periodic contributions from we- althier developed countries in regular replenishment11 rounds. It also re- ceives profits from the IBRD itself. The cited rounds are important because they include debates on the allocation criteria to be used by the WB len- ding procedures during the next three years (Lavelle 2011). Since its creation, IDA has totaled USD 369 billion in credits and grants, with approximately USD 20 billion over the last three years, and has become the leading source of interest-free loans to 75 HIPCs. It is impor- tant to note that some countries fit both IDA and IBRD terms, since their low income is combined with a high capacity of payment. A country is tem- porarily part of IDA, meaning that once they have the necessary resources to invest in basic sectors of the society and develop themselves, they leave the IDA category. Nevertheless, they keep providing funds for those remai- ning countries to develop. Through its history, 44 states have “graduated”, 10 The initial four recipient countries of IDA were Chile, Honduras, India, and Sudan (IDA 2019). 11 Every three years, the members of IDA gather to establish – through donations – the budget of the organization for the next three years. The meeting also serves to review the members of the association and formulate new IDA policies. These periods of three years are called replenishment periods and are identified by their number. For example, the 16th replenishment period – when the permanent CRW was established – is called IDA16 (IDA 2018e). 381
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION meaning that they have overcome the conditions required by IDA’s loaning criteria, while others have re-entered it (IDA 2019). 2.3 IDA AND DEVELOPMENT As previously presented, IDA is the organ within the World Bank Group responsible for the promotion of development in every low-income and some medium-income countries12. IDA was strengthened in the past few decades in response to the criticism directed at the Bank for its genera- lized position regarding development — focusing on liberalization and the opening of small and weak internal markets (Hopkins 1986). The creation of the IDA’s Regional Window in 2003, therefore, marked a shift in the ins- titution’s policy, now aiming at country-specific strategies in the pursuit of development. Thus, the organization started giving more emphasis to the particular challenges faced by each country or region in the financing of projects. The new approach seeks to encourage regional integration both through policy coordination in the formation of institutions and the crea- tion of regionally integrated infrastructure. This indicates IDA has taken a more diversified stance on the means whereby development may be achie- ved, signaling a tendency towards more case-oriented approaches (WBG 2019d). At the end of the 20th century, some scholars questioned the ef- fectivity of the World Bank in fulfilling its role in aiding weak economies at that point in time. It was said that, since the creation of the institution, the internal situation of countries had improved to a level in which they had to rely less on foreign capital and international aid. However, even tho- se scholars recognized the necessity for more funds to be directed to IDA, in order to better reach the countries that needed them most (Culpeper, Berry, and Stewart 1997). This comes to support IDA’s relevance growth in the 21st century, helping respond to new challenges faced globally (WBG 2019d). IDA, thus, has intensified its actions in several areas in order to keep the Bank’s presence relevant in developing countries. The Associa- tion, apart from having its specific windows, also takes direct action in hel- ping manage economies and fund projects. Analytical studies and reports are produced to, alongside groups of advisors promoted by IDA, help gover- nments to better employ the newly acquired resources. The funds are lent according to a series of criteria, including national income per capita, risk of debt insolvency, and IBRD creditworthiness. Depending on the specific situation of each nation, IDA may decide on the proportion of funds to be disbursed as grants or as regular and blend credits with very long maturity 12 ome medium-income countries are funded only by IBRD within World Bank, while others are also eligible to IDA funds, especially during crises. 382
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES periods (IDA 2018c). Technical issues and a more in-depth debate on the matter are presented below. 2.4 CREATION OF THE CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW (CRW) Towards the end of the 21st century’s first decade, several emerging economic dynamics challenged the traditional financing mechanisms wi- thin the framework of the World Bank. These new situations spurred the creation of new institutionalized manners by which developing countries could receive financial support from IDA (IDA 2010c). Therefore, the pre- sent section seeks to address the historical conditions that required inno- vation within the World Bank Group, as well as the solutions found. Between 2007 and 2009, a combination of factors such as the finan- cialization of capitals, the commodity boom, and the housing bubble in the United States, which was then the most important market in the world, set the stage for a large-scale crisis. The impact of the crash of the financial market in the so-called real economy, represented by growing unemploy- ment and shrinking production and consumption, quickly spread across borders, generating one of the biggest international crises in history (Fos- ter 2008). The American economic tragedy reached the rest of the world in several ways, most notably, according to some scholars, affecting de- veloping and impoverished nations (Griffith-Jones and Ocampo 2009). However, it is also essential to point out that this crisis had the distinctive characteristic of heavily impacting the most advanced economies in the world, setting the stage for the emergence of countries such as Brazil, Rus- sia, China, India, and South Africa (BRICS), among others. These countries managed to recover faster from the initial shock and take advantage of the unstable environment to take a greater role in the international economy, most notably within multilateral forums (Ramos et al. 2012). Arguably, the most important transmission channel through which the crisis hit other areas of the world was the decrease in commodity prices, affecting more directly the poorest countries, which tend to rely on exporting a small va- riety of primary goods (Griffith-Jones and Ocampo 2009). Besides exogenous economic shocks, another contemporary challen- ge that affects poor and developing countries more heavily than their we- althy peers is climate change. The processes of industrialization and urba- nization that took place over the past decades and centuries have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Most of these gases are produced by developed or emerging nations, which account for over 75% of said gas releases (Union of Concerned Scientists 2018). However, the steady rise of Earth’s surface temperature, caused by industrial, livestock and other human-induced forms of greenhouse gas emissions, have a dis- proportionate effect over the poorest countries (Mendelsohn, Dinar, and Williams 2006). The destruction of their weak or non-existent infrastructu- 383
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION re caused by natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and storms — that happen more frequently and with greater magnitude because of the higher temperatures — is one of the more direct manners whereby these nations are impacted (Mijalković and Cvetković 2013). These immediate effects have both short and long-term consequences. In the short-term, the disas- ters destroy critical infrastructure and contribute to generalized outbre- aks of several diseases, overwhelming public health systems and causing severe human losses. In the long-term, however, the impacts may be more far-reaching, since the destruction of infrastructure associated with the exporting sector, as well as the damage to crops and other products, trigger a sequence of events that might cause trade deficits, economic recession and, ultimately, food shortage (Diaz 2007). Thus, the necessity of establishing frameworks within international institutions to address not only these economic and climatic but also sani- tary issues was brought forward. Various international organizations made efforts in that direction, including the United Nations (UN), which pio- neered such endeavors in many ways. The creation of the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund and its rapid response window was of the first major attempts to address the new challenges of the 21st century. The goal was to further the funding to assist countries affected by seve- re humanitarian crises through donations from its Member States (United Nations 2005). However, the amount of money available for said operations was limited by the will of donor nations to contribute; and the eligibility criteria established by the various UN aid agencies, which are rather flexi- ble, enable funds to be directed to countries that are not necessarily among the poorest in the world (United Nations 2011). Considering those flaws, it fell upon other institutions, such as the World Bank Group, to provide rapid response funding, following stricter guidelines, to poor countries in emergencies (Baulch 2004). Within the World Bank Group, it was suitable that IDA took respon- sibility for providing financial support to impoverished countries facing crises. Two mechanisms were put in place at the beginning of this decade to formalize and facilitate quick responses to critical situations: the Crisis Response Window (CRW), and the Immediate Response Mechanism (IRM). Each of these funding processes serves a different purpose, in the sense that they are based on different approaches and have different goals in providing the financial resources to handle with emergencies (IDA 2018a, 2018b). The IRM, created in late 2011, is a significant asset to IDA’s crisis ma- nagement structure. The idea behind the creation of the mechanism was to enable the disbursement of funding for countries facing crises or emer- gencies in the shortest time possible. For a country to be eligible to receive funding from the IRM, it should, besides already being an IDA country, be facing “[...] major adverse economic and/or social impacts resulting from an actual or imminent natural or man-made crisis or disaster.” (WBG 2007, 384
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES 1). If the nation complies with such criteria, it will be able to draw up to 5 percent of its undisbursed IDA portfolio13. Smaller nations, that have small undisbursed portfolios, may demand up to USD 5 million in financing, even if that is higher than the previously established 5 percent, in order to be able to adequately respond to emergencies (WBG 2011). Thus, the IRM ser- ves its purpose providing short-term financing to smaller disasters or to prevent the escalation of situations. However, long-term disaster manage- ment and recovery fall beyond the scope of this mechanism (WBG 2018a). The CRW, on the other hand, proposed in 2009 and effectively created at the beginning of 2011, provides emergency financing with long-term de- velopment goals. It encompasses a wider array of emergencies, such as lar- ge-scale natural disasters, severe economic shocks, and epidemics as well as other public health calamities (IDA 2018a). Reaffirming the need for IDA to take more decisive actions to help low-income countries deal with the aftermath of the 2008-9 financial crisis and with ever more frequent natu- ral disasters, the proposal for the creation of the CRW intended to make around USD 1,5 billion available for crisis recovery within its first IDA cycle (IDA 2009). However, after the proper establishment of the CRW in 2011, it met an extraordinarily high demand for funding within the first few years of existence, which required a mid-cycle doubling of the available funds for IDA17, initially set at USD 900 million. This demand decreased over the following years, but the CRW continues to be crucial to the financing of crisis response and post-emergency reconstruction in a timely and trans- parent manner, as was its original intention (WBG 2018b). 3 STATEMENT OF THE ISSUE In light of the historical background, the next section seeks to ad- dress more directly the actions taken by IDA and its Crisis Response Win- dow, as well as the principles basing it. Firstly, a discussion on development and the role of foreign financial aid, such as the one provided by the CRW, will be presented. Afterward, the study guide addresses the conditions under which IDA lends funds and countries are eligible to receive them. Finally, this section presents examples of current situations in which the CRW is being utilized to deal with crises of different natures. The point, therefore, is to present the reasoning behind the actions taken, as well as to state both theoretical and practical aspects of the issue. 3.1 CRW FINANCING AND CONDITIONS 13 Undisbursed balance is the amount of IDA funds available to one country that has not yet been com- mitted to other projects within that same IDA cycle (IDA 1992). 385
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION When thinking about the functioning of IDA’s Crisis Response Win- dow, two major concerns are presented to the Board of Governors of the organization. Primarily, problems regarding the financing of the CRW: from which fund or budget the capital to finance the CRW projects should come from and the amount of money that should be allocated for the Cri- sis Response initiative. With the financial question resolved, the Board must decide which countries are worthy of receiving aid from IDA; in other words, which conditions allow a nation to receive financing through the CRW mechanism. Therewithal, criteria that establish which crises are seve- re enough to be approached by the CRW and priorities for the allocation of resources within these nations engulfed by crisis also must be formulated by the Governors (IDA 2009, 2010b). All of these questions are going to be explained in the following two sections. 3.1.1 FUNDING THE CRW AND COUNTRY ELIGIBILITY The first question to be approached is the matter of the financing of the CRW. As of the creation of its pilot project14, in 2010, the problem of where to find the money to finance the project emerged (IDA 2010c). The simplest response is to reallocate from the already established budget of the fiscal years that compose the current period of replenishment of IDA and transfer to CRW projects. Albeit a simple solution – and although the budget for the CRW corresponds to less than 10% of the total IDA expen- diture15 –, the mere budgetary rearrangement comes with the price of the deviance of the utmost purpose of IDA, namely the financing of long-term projects that promote sustained development in poor countries (WBG 2019e). By transferring resources from the current budget of IDA to the newly created CRW mechanism, the Board could be “taxing” the finance of other current projects of the organization. In other words, IDA’s budget has already been committed to projects of sustainable development in the long-term. Channeling parts of the budget for the CRW would correspond to a shortage of resources for these types of projects, which are of utmost importance for the combat of impoverishment and underdevelopment worldwide. Therefore, the simple management of resources of the budget is not a viable choice (IDA 2010b). When by the time of the 16th IDA replenishment cycle, some solu- tions for this problem were brought to appreciation for the establishment 14 Before the CRW consolidation as a permanent mechanism of IDA, a pilot CRW was created in 2010 as a test for the permanent one that would be implemented – regarding the experiences that occurred in the pilot model – in 16th replenishment (IDA 2010c). 15 n the last years, the percentage of the CRW budget in relation to the total IDA budget has been growing. During IDA16, CRW represented 1,5% of all IDAs expenditure; in IDA17, 3%; and in IDA18, 4% (WBG 2019e). 386
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES of the permanent CRW. Three solutions were found for the financing pro- blem. The first one consists of the ex-ante financing of the CRW projects. In this modality, donors in every IDA cycle would establish a certain amount of money to be utilized in the CRW initiative only. The second option would consist in the ex-post financing. In this type of financing, the organization would disburse its own resources for the financing of the CRW projects, while the member countries would be responsible for compensating IDA’s hand out in the next replenishment cycle with additional donations to the organization’s budget (IDA 2010a). Both modalities have their positive and negative points. Ex-ante financing permits a less complicated financing scheme and a rapid deploy- ment of the resources for nations in crisis. On the other hand, determining the budget for the CRW before the request of project financing could beco- me a problem, due to the uncertainties related to crises. The Board cannot predict the number of crises that will occur worldwide during the reple- nishment cycles, therefore the budget allocated could be insufficient to at- tend the needs of the countries eligible for the CRW financing. The ex-post financing has the precise benefit of more budgetary flexibility concerning the possible demands of countries in crisis that can access the CRW resour- ces. However, members of IDA showed their concern in being able to refund IDA’s disbursements in the subsequent replenishment cycle (IDA 2010a). The third solution is, in reality, a complementary modality of the other two types of financing presented. It consists of the creation of a trust fund, in accordance with the already existing ones in IDA, for the CRW. In that way, member countries would be invited to contribute with this trust fund – as an extra donation, additional to IDA’s replenishment budget con- tribution. Donor countries could also establish a mild precondition for the utilization of their donation16 (IDA 2010a). This trust fund, therefore, could be an auxiliary method of financing the CRW projects. Member countries of the Board decided on the ex-ante financing option during the creation of the permanent Crisis Response Window. The problem involving this kind of financing modality, however, persisted. It was decided, then, that an additional contribution could be made by the countries, if the amount of money dedicated to the CRW runs out in the middle of the replenishment cycle. Moreover, if the additional borrowing is not possible, the IBRD could make bridge loans to the countries in need of assistance (IDA 2010a). With the budget for the functioning of the Crisis Response Window determined, it is necessary to comprehend the variables that make a cou- ntry eligible for the CRW aid. The conjugation of multiple factors defines if a nation is worthy of the crisis response financing – such as what caused the crisis, its severity, the level of development of the country, etc. The next 16 Donor countries can allocate their donations with a “soft earmarkation”. In other words, they pro- vide an amount of money that will be used when a certain kind of crisis, specified by the donor, occurs (IDA 2010b). 387
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION paragraphs will approach these factors. For a country to be eligible for financial aid of the CRW, it first must be classified – within the World Bank Group classification – as an IDA-only country (IDA 2009, 2010a, 2012). To be classified as an IDA-only country me- ans that these specific countries have a low level17of Gross National Income (GNI) per capita and do not have access to other financial institutions that grant loans as the IRBD and the IMF, for instance (Moss, Standley, and Bird- sall 2004). Nowadays, 59 of the 75 IDA borrowers are countries classified as IDA-only (IDA 2018b), which are eligible for the CRW financial assistance. However, this classification is not the only pre-existing requisite, as oil ex- porter economies cannot apply for the CRW assistance18 (IDA 2012, 2018a). Therefore, 57 countries can receive the aid of the crisis response mecha- nism (IDA 2012, 2018b)19. 3.1.2 DEFINING CRISIS ELIGIBILITY Having defined the countries that are allowed to receive financial assistance from the CRW, it is necessary to establish the other criteria for eligibility. Even though the crisis response initiative was created for com- bating the deleterious effects of the 2008-9 economic crisis and natural di- sasters, not every area suffered these negative effects equally, as not every natural disaster or economic crisis has the same severity. In a reality of scarce resources, it is important to delimit a clear method for the allocation of financial aid (IDA 2010b). Therefore, not every crisis will trigger the financial help of the CRW. To be eligible for the financial aid of the CRW, these must attend to two criteria. Primarily, the crisis the candidate state is suffering must be caused by an external shock – due to economic, natural or sanitary causes (IDA 2010b). Recognizing the difficulty in some cases to determine if the situation that a nation is going through is caused by external or internal factors, it was decided that the Board of IDA will have to analyze and define each case individually (IDA 2010b). 17 The World Bank Group divides their associate countries into four income groups, being the “low- -income” the bottom group of countries and the “high-income” the top income group of countries. To be identified as a low-income country, the state needs to have a GNI per capita equal to or lower than USD 995 (WBG 2018c). 18 According to the Board, nations that export oil have accumulated great revenue from the price leve- rage in the last years, granting them the financial resources needed to build the economic resilience to endure the global economic crisis period. However, the Board can reach the understanding that these countries do not have any economic advantage as oil exporters anymore, allowing them to receive financial help in future crises (IDA 2012). 19 At the beginning of the Crisis Response Window program, Angola, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria were not considered to receive help through the mechanism for being oil exporters. Howe- ver, since Angola and Nigeria were graduated from the IDA-only condition recently, these two nations cannot apply for CRW funds in any given condition anymore (IDA 2012, 2018b). 388
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES Once the Board has verified the external nature of the crisis of a possible borrower country, there is still one more condition that the coun- tries must contemplate for receiving the grants of IDA’s crisis response (IDA 2010b). In order to borrow money from the CRW, the crisis experienced by the country must cause a drop of at least 3% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projection of the country’s economy (IDA 2010b). This precondition of a considerable drop in the GDP projection was established by IDA becau- se, if a less strict condition was stipulated for releasing funds to nations suffering from a crisis, the core objective of the crisis response initiative would be compromised and perhaps the countries in most need of assistan- ce would not receive sufficient resources (IDA 2010b). At last, it is important to determine which countries would recei- ve preference in the CRW. As mentioned above, the amount of capital the CRW possesses to assist states in crisis is considerably limited. Therefore, a criterion must exist to prioritize those nations that suffer more from the consequences of a crisis (IDA 2009). As a result, IDA-only candidates are classified according to measurements that represent their vulnerability ba- sed on their situation before the beginning of the crisis and the impact of it in the countries’ future (IDA 2009). Countries are classified based on their pre-existing needs – measured by their GNI per capita rate – before the occurrence of the crisis and by the impact of the crisis in their country – measured by the decline in the GDP growth prediction after the crisis. (IDA 2009). These two economic data are used as variables to determine which country will have more funds and projects allocated to. Utilizing these two variables, the Board classified the preexisting necessities and the crisis im- pact projection of the applicants for aid as “low” or “high” to better guide the funds’ allocation. In other words, countries with high preexisting need will have less capabilities to manage the adversities brought by the exter- nal shock, owing to the lack of social security nets for their population, the lack of financial power to assist their population or their macroeconomy, and the low acquisitive power of the households of these countries. Thus, those nations will receive more aid and more resources than those with lower needs (IDA 2009). Following the same logic used for the previous needs, the countries most affected in their GDP forecast by the crisis will receive the largest amounts of money and be prioritized by the CRW (IDA 2009). Therefore, it is correct to assume that countries with greater previous needs and that suffered more with the impacts of the crisis will receive more aid from the CRW; on the other hand, states with fewer necessities and less affected by the crisis will receive lowest amounts of money from IDA (IDA 2009). It is important to highlight that the grading of the crisis impact and the pre- vious needs of the IDA-only countries will be made by the Board. It will be the responsibility of the Board to establish which countries will receive priority in the financial help between the economies with high preceding 389
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION needs and low crisis impact forecast and the high crisis impact economies with low previous necessities. With the channels of financing of the Crisis Response Window analyzed and the conditions that allow a state to request aid from this IDA mechanism set, it is necessary to better investigate the causes that drive the nations into the crisis. The next sessions will discuss each type of crisis that is in the scope of the CRW aid and the ways to mitigate their damages in the countries through the financial help provided by IDA. 3.2 CRISIS SITUATIONS AND POSSIBLE OUTCOMES To better understand the complexity of the challenges that borrowing countries from IDA may face, it is important to take notice of the origins and possible solutions of each model of crisis. As seen, the bureaucratic apparatus of the organizations takes into account an extensive number of preconditions in order to use the Crisis Response Window’s funding. The- refore, each case must be scrutinized by the Board of Governors in order to determine the best approach to a viable and sustainable crisis resolution. The following subsections aim to explore such particularisms of the three viable crisis aid options as well as to better elaborate on how to handle their outcomes. 3.2.1 ECONOMIC CRISIS SITUATION The primary objective attributed to the Crisis Response Window was to serve as an emergency aiding fund to those poor countries facing severe economic crises. Given the current crisis faced worldwide, the conditions, as well as the utilized concept, must be properly delineated. An economic crisis occurs when the annual growth rate of a real GDP per capita drops below zero, becoming negative. Therefore, “severe economic crisis” may be interpreted as a drastic reduction – at least -3% according to IDA re- gulation – deeply affecting developing economies and compromising its living standard (Hausmann, Rodriguez and Wagner 2008; IDA 2010b). Cur- rently, the International System faces an unstable financial ground, due to the dissolution of the former structure of the Washington Consensus; consequently one can highlight worldwide struggle with loan debts, and the central states’ skepticism with sponsoring poorest countries economic crises’ relief, as some of the contemporary challenges of the global eco- nomy (Brookings 2007). Notwithstanding, the CRW structure persists in order to guarantee at least some degree of financial aid to those in arduous economic situations. In the matters of economic crises, it is important to notice that their existence is not an exceptional situation in the world order or tra- 390
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES ditional economic functionality, but a default dysfunctional characteristic of the capitalist system (Minsky 1982). Therefore, the terms of condition and requirements in order to acquire any help from international institu- tions are foremost strict and bureaucratic. Although economic crises affect negatively all countries upon which they befall, it is undeniable that the impact in poor and developing countries have bigger internal proportions; even though it is important to note that economic fallout in large econo- mies and great powers ends up affecting the world economy as a whole (Hausmann, Rodriguez and Wagner 2008). The main reasons for such dis- parities are structural economic deficiencies, such as productive speciali- zation in one product exclusively, high rates of unemployment, or other specific settings of the country (Hausmann and Kingler 2006). While analyzing past economic crises, the importance of rapid res- ponses is noteworthy, for when not contained, their escalation is certain (Hausmann, Rodriguez and Wagner 2008). As it was observed by Mishkin (1999), given the terms that guide the loaning conditions of the IMF, every loan must be thoroughly negotiated, and because of that, it may take va- rious months before the institution’s funds are at the country’s disposal. Hence, when the aid is finally available, the crisis has often escalated in such a way that the amount needed to cope with the situation would finan- cially damage the resources of any possible donor or lender organization. All things considered, the need for quick provisions becomes evident; one way to attend such a viable solution – that is already arranged by the CRW – is to have strict and clear terms and conditions for loan admissions (Haus- mann, Rodriguez and Wagner 2008; Mishkin 1999). Nevertheless, when it comes to the actual decision-making of the Board of Governors of the CRW, the process can be held up for political or contingency motivations. This must be avoided at all costs if the objective of the Board is to effectively aid and mitigate severe economic crises. In the past three decades, the International System experienced three global recessions, namely in 1982, 1991 and 2009. As appointed by the IDA Resource Mobilization Department (2010) – based on IMF World Economic Outlook data –, in all those episodes, 30 percent or more of IDA countries faced a growth decline that can be classified as a severe economic crisis (IDA 2010a). As it was previously mentioned regarding the procedures to be accepted as a viable borrower by the CRW’s Bureau, the Board must be informed of the need to access the CRW resources which will be approved if the crisis has been caused by exogenous shocks – that affected multiple IDA exclusive countries, or spread widely within a specific region – followed by a projected decline of GDP growth of 3 percent minimum. These pre- -requisites are subsequently followed by an analysis of the fiscal impact that highlights the importance of an international response (IDA 2018a). Recent examples of the usage of such bureaucracy were during the Fiscal Year of 2017, in which USD 150 million of the CRW quota was allocated as a response to commodity price shocks in Chad, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra 391
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Leone (IDA 2017). 3.2.2 ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS SITUATION The Crisis Response Window is also an important response tool in environmental crisis situations. Although its original focus was to assist developing countries suffering from economic shocks, the increasing num- ber of natural disasters linked to climate changes in the last decades has shown the urgency of this situation to also be addressed by the CRW me- chanism, which has a major role in the crisis impacts mitigation (IDA 2009). The CRW performance has developed new forms to address the needs of each case, given that all operations must consider the specificities and main requirements of each situation and place (WBG 2019f). From the un- derstanding that environmental phenomena directly affect states all over the world, the CRW, through international cooperation, strives to rebuild and to prepare the impacted countries for future crises (IDA 2009; WBG 2019g). Climate change impacts lives worldwide. The Global Facility for Di- saster Reconstruction and Resilience (2016) estimates that about 2 billion people were affected by natural disasters in the last few years, which also caused the death of more than one million people and economic losses that reached around three trillion dollars (WBG 2019h). The main reason for these events is the increase and aggravation of floods, the sea level rise, storms, hurricanes, and intense heat waves, which result from global war- ming intensified by human action (Viola and Basso 2016; WBG 2019g). Con- sequently, climate change also deteriorates water and food supplies contri- buting to the spreading of diseases that directly affect the most vulnerable portions of the population, such as low-income citizens and small island re- sidents. Therefore, not only is the development of these populations thre- atened, but also is their dependence on external help increased (GFDRR 2016, WBG 2019i). To deal with the complexity of this situation it is necessary to appro- ach reality through different strategies (GFDRR 2018a). When working with reconstruction and recovery of affected places, it is important to consider the risk variables identified by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (2018a), those being hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The first one is linked to natural phenomena such as floods, earthquakes, and storms; exposure takes into account the physical characteristics of the site which is being analyzed, as its location and topography; the risk variable focus in the aspects that demonstrate how susceptible to the effects of a hazard that place is (GFDRR, 2018b). According to this, the World Risk Report (Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft 2018) established that the most vulnerable places to environmental disasters are located in Oceania, Southeast Asia, Central America, and Afri- ca. These regions concentrate a group of smaller states in need of special 392
CRISIS RESPONSE WINDOW: FUNDS ALLOCATION FOR ECONOMICALLY DISRUPTIVE CRISES aid, which are called Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and together these states represent 5% of the global population of developing countries (IDA 2009). Given their small size and usual geographical isolation, their vulnerability is enhanced, meaning that when any natural event happens, all the population is affected (WBG 2019g, GFDRR 2017). These conditions also imply human, economic, and environmental costs, as well as long-term impacts. To avoid that, it is necessary to put more effort into solutions to mitigate and resolve the impacts by reacting with structural reforms, pro- viding infrastructure and public services (IDA 2009). In 2017, many regions were affected by natural hazards. In the “Latin America and Caribbean” and the “Europe and Central Asia” (ECA) regions, hurricanes and earthquakes caused hundreds of deaths and abundant los- ses. In Africa, natural disasters were intensified by previous problems as- sociated with a lack of food security and poverty. In the “Middle East and North Africa” (MENA), as well as in South Asian regions, the natural pheno- mena still threaten the population and the economy (GFDRR 2018a). Even though all regions are vulnerable to these situations, the “East and Pacific” (EAP) is five times more prone to face natural disasters (GF- DRR 2018a); nevertheless, they are not able to reduce disaster risk without external help (Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft 2018). Developed countries have a fundamental role in assisting these regions, given their higher incomes and infrastructure know-how to resist and mitigate the consequences of natural hazards (WBG 2019g). The major amount of resources intended to help crisis situations of environmental character goes mostly to mitigation – used to avoid and to reduce the impacts of climate change – and the remaining amount goes to adaptation – responsible for dealing with present and future impacts (Bosello, Carraro, and de Cian 2010). Nonetheless, both mitigation measu- res and adaptation ones need to be addressed together (Biesbroek, Swart, and Van Der Knaap 2009). The main explanation for this specific spending regards the difficulty to perceive immediate benefits from adaptation fi- nancing, given unknown circumstances, such as time, frequency, and mag- nitude of the possible hazards, since mechanisms of adaptation are mostly noticeable in a long-term period. The ability to manage development re- quires certain considerations about the present and future possibility of impacts of climate change risks. It requires actions in order to attain adap- tation and resilience capacity, once these characteristics are profoundly connected to development (WBG 2019i). It is common to realize that prolonged crises are associated with fragility, conflict, and violence that mutually reinforce each other and are capable of intensifying and delaying recovery periods. In this case, it is im- portant to approach the concern revolving around basic services such as transport, healthcare, and education, three of the most affected services after a crisis (GFDRR 2018a). In these scenarios, when the CRW financing aid is required, some steps must be followed, starting with the immediate 393
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