INTELLIGENT INVESTING - August 2020 Market review - Canaccord Genuity

 
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INTELLIGENT INVESTING - August 2020 Market review - Canaccord Genuity
INTELLIGENT
INVESTING
August 2020

Market review                                                                                       Contents
Markets have been in pause mode for the last month or so.                                           Market review                            1
On the one hand, central banks across the world continue to hose investors with vast amounts
                                                                                                    UK large-cap equities
of liquidity. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet has climbed to over US$7trn.
Since mid-March the Fed has bought assets at the rate of approximately US$300,000 every             Smurfit Kappa                            2
single second, or almost US$25bn every day. Other central banks have been just as prolific.         Smith & Nephew                           2
Neither have governments shown themselves to be slouches; stimulus packages worth
trillions have been put in place across the globe. And in further positive news there has been      UK small-cap equities
a slew of encouraging data on vaccine trials.                                                       Renew Holdings                           3
On the other hand, COVID-19 shows no signs of abating. It is exploding in Latin America             Vertu Motors                             3
and India, and is re-accelerating in the southern and western United States, in Japan and
the Middle East.                                                                                    Equity screen                            4
Meanwhile the market recovery has been dramatic. The S&P 500 Index in the US is now close           US equity
to its February all-time highs, while the technology-rich NASDAQ Composite has comfortably
                                                                                                    Intuit                                   5
surpassed them. This has some investors asking whether this is all too far too fast, especially
with no visibility of earnings in 2021 and some measures of valuation looking stretched.
                                                                                                    Investment fund
In the UK, with a less appealing mix of companies, the market recovery has not been so good;        Hipgnosis Songs                          5
arguably with a potential hard Brexit looming in the background, neither are our prospects.
The FTSE All-Share Index remains 17% down on the year-to-date and lower in capital terms            Profit takers                            6
than it was seven years ago.
Finally, there are now worries about the longer-term affordability of all the spending by
governments and central banks – and whether this will eventually find its way into higher
inflation, or tax rises, or both.                                                                       Intelligent Investing is defined as
                                                                                                        a marketing communication under
These conflicting forces have created a two-way pull, with beneficiaries of the new world,
                                                                                                        FCA, GFSC, JFSC and IOM FSA
like technology and healthcare, still making progress while those likely to be hurt, like banks
and travel companies, languishing. We see this pattern persisting until we gain a better insight        rules and is provided to clients as
into how next year progresses. It seems extraordinary that consensus estimates for US                   part of their service with CGWM.
company earnings for 2021 are actually higher than the level reached in 2019.                           The information provided here
We reflect this lack of direction in this issue of Intelligent Investing. Among UK larger               is not tailored advice – it has no
companies we look at healthcare equipment maker Smith & Nephew and packaging company                    regard for the specific investment
Smurfit Kappa. In smaller companies we consider Renew, the building services company, and               objectives, financial situation
Vertu, the motor retailer that has been hit hard by the impact of COVID-19. Our international           or needs of any specific person.
stock is Intuit, the US accounting and tax software specialist. In funds we look at music royalty       Investment involves risk. The value
investment trust Hipgnosis – an interesting approach, in our view. Finally, with so much focus          of investments and the income
on the loss of dividend income, our screen identifies possible dividend recovery plays.                 from them can go down as well as
We think we are in for a choppy ride over the coming months. But choppy periods throw up                up and you may not get back the
good opportunities to buy long-term investments at knockdown prices. We spend a huge                    amount originally invested.
amount of our time hunting for these for our clients.                                                   Past performance is not a reliable
Richard Champion                                                                                        indicator of future returns.
Deputy Chief Investment Officer, UK

                                                                                                                                              1
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
INTELLIGENT INVESTING - August 2020 Market review - Canaccord Genuity
• e-commerce
                                                                                                         Smurfit Kappa
                                                    • Consumers stepping away from                       Share price                  2,600p
                                                      one shop per week to smaller, more
                                                                                                         Market cap                   £6.2bn
                                                      frequent visits
                                                    • Convenience and discount stores, such                                           2019A    2020F   2021F

                                                      as Lidl and Tesco Metro, which use more            Revenue (£bn)                  9.0      8.6     8.8
                                                      corrugated packaging                               Earnings per share (p)         3.2      2.2     2.4

                                                    • More personalised packaging solutions              Dividend per share (p)         0.3      0.8     1.1
                                                                                                         Dividend yield                1.0%    2.8%    3.7%
                                                    • Switching from plastic to corrugated
                                                                                                         Free cash flow yield         11.8%    6.8%    7.9%
                                                    • Shelf-ready packaging which helps
                                                                                                         Price earnings ratio           8.7     12.8    11.9
                                                      staff by speeding up the shop floor
                                                      shelf-stacking process.                            Return on capital employed   17.9%    10.0%   10.9%

The complete package                                Ursula von der Leyen, the new European           Source: Quest®
                                                                                                     Note: 2020 and 2021 are forecast years
                                                    Commission President, is set on creating
Smurfit Kappa (Smurfit) is Europe’s no.1
                                                    a new green industry which we expect             of crisis (e.g. COVID-19) – while also providing
producer (c.20% market share) of corrugated,
                                                    corrugated packaging to be at the forefront      more stable margins and cash flows.
containerboard and ‘bag in box’ packaging.
                                                    of. Smurfit is also the most innovative
It is the only Pan-American producer of                                                              Despite all of its structural growth drivers,
                                                    packaging company which leads to
containerboard and corrugated packaging.                                                             the non-consumer packaging part of the
                                                    higher margins. Recent examples of its
It offers an unrivalled portfolio of paper-                                                          business (c.20% of sales) has been hit by
                                                    proprietary solutions include ShelfSmart,
packaging solutions (e.g. design consultancy,                                                        COVID-19 but is showing tentative signs
                                                    which has increased customer sales by
supply chain optimisation, packaging                                                                 of recovery. But with shares down c.14%
                                                    10% and SupplySmart, which has reduced
fulfilment), which it constantly innovates.                                                          since mid-February, we think the bad news
                                                    total customer packaging costs by 10%+.
                                                                                                     is more than in the price with the shares
As market leader, Smurfit leverages its             Importantly, Smurfit is in a good place to
                                                                                                     trading on 12.8x current year consensus
superior scale by offering a global solution        take advantage of the growth opportunity
                                                                                                     earnings, falling to 11.9x next year’s
through a network of 245 packaging                  in the Americas (21% of profits) which is
                                                                                                     earnings. It’s also worth noting that given
conversion plants, 34 paper mills and               several years behind Europe from both a
                                                                                                     the rapid rise of ESG (environmental, social
42 recycling plants, in 21 countries in             green and innovation perspective.
                                                                                                     and governance) investing, Smurfit ranks
Europe and 12 countries in the Americas.
                                                    Smurfit has a fully vertically integrated*       strongly with specialist data providers such
The corrugated packaging market continues           business model, producing all the paper          as Sustainalytics and MSCI.
to deliver robust growth (c.3% annually in          requirements of its packaging business.
                                                                                                     Simon McGarry
recent years) due to its multiple structural        This makes its offering even stronger and
                                                                                                     Senior Equity Analyst
growth drivers including:                           provides security of supply – crucial in times
                                                                                                     See glossary for definition.
                                                                                                     *

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                                                    • To grow margins, citing a number of
                                                      leaner peers with superior margins.
                                                                                                         Smith & Nephew
                                                                                                         Share price                  1,620p
                                                    Early signs were encouraging with organic            Market cap                   £14.2bn
                                                    growth accelerating from c.2% previously
                                                    to c.4.4% in 2019. In February, guidance                                          2019A    2020F   2021F
In recovery                                         for 2020 was set at 3.5%-4.5% organic                Revenue (£bn)                  3.9      3.6     4.1
                                                    growth with 0.75% of margin improvement.             Earnings per share (p)        73.2     51.8    78.4
Smith & Nephew (S&N) is a medical
                                                    There was also an increased desire to                Dividend per share (p)        28.3     20.5    29.9
equipment manufacturer with strong
                                                    grow via acquisitions having acquired
market positions across a variety of clinical                                                            Dividend yield                1.7%    1.3%    1.8%
                                                    four companies from March-June 2019.
areas. It is also the global no.2 player in high-                                                        Free cash flow yield          4.1%    2.5%    4.1%
growth markets such as sports medicine              Despite a brief period of uncertainty as             Price earnings ratio           n/a     31.3    20.6
and advanced wound management.                      Nawal announced he was stepping down                 Return on capital employed   13.6%    9.1%    14.2%
                                                    late last year, this was soon resolved with
S&N has delivered consistently strong                                                                Source: Quest®
                                                    Roland Diggelmann replacing him just
margins (currently c.23%) which haven’t                                                              Note: 2020 and 2021 are forecast years
                                                    10 days later. Diggelmann, who previously
dipped below 20% for 15 years – largely
                                                    led Roche Diagnostics, had fully endorsed        forced to cancel procedures such as hip
due to the oligopolistic structure of the
                                                    Nawana’s previous strategy having joined         and knee replacements.
orthopaedic market, with the four largest
                                                    the board as a non-executive director in
players having combined market share                                                                 Despite S&N’s share price outperforming
                                                    March 2018.
of 85%.                                                                                              the market year-to-date, COVID-19 has
                                                    S&N has been hit hard by COVID-19 due            given investors an opportunity; once
In recent years, S&N has reduced costs in
                                                    to elective medical procedures being             operations normalise, the business is
slower-growth areas to redeploy elsewhere.
                                                    postponed. However, there appear to              capable of consistently delivering 10%
This strategy accelerated under Namal
                                                    be some green shoots of recovery with            annual earnings per share. This is at a
Nawana, who joined as CEO in May 2018
                                                    April revenue down 47% year-on-year              multiple of just 22x last year’s earnings.
with two key priorities:
                                                    but June just 12%. And as we enter 2021,
                                                                                                     Simon McGarry
• To re-establish growth which was erratic          we expect a recovery of its end markets
                                                                                                     Senior Equity Analyst
  under previous management                         due to an influx of patients previously
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                                                                                                                                                          2
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
Investments in smaller companies are not suitable for all investors as they are high risk and tend to be more volatile and illiquid.
Selling may be difficult and they can fall further than the wider market. They are more exposed to fluctuations in the domestic
economy and growth is not guaranteed.

                                                The remaining profit is derived from its
                                                smaller Specialist Building division. This
                                                                                                    Renew Holdings
                                                focuses on the high-quality residential             Share price                  446p
                                                market in London and the home counties              Market cap                   £350m
                                                through its subsidiary, Walter Lilly.                                            2019A   2020F   2021F
Renewed confidence                              Renew operates in regulated markets                 Revenue (£m)                   600     600     664
                                                with high barriers to entry including scale         Earnings per share (p)        34.2    36.7    41.0
Renew provides essential engineering
                                                and safety. And as the work it carries out          Dividend per share (p)        11.5     6.4    13.0
services to maintain and renew critical
                                                is linked to non-discretionary operating
UK infrastructure and has a directly                                                                Dividend yield                3.0%    1.4%   2.9%
                                                budgets, trading has remained resilient in
employed, highly skilled workforce of                                                               Free cash flow yield          9.7%   12.1%   13.5%
                                                the face of COVID-19, with approximately
around 2,800 employees.                                                                             Price earnings ratio          11.3    12.2    10.9
                                                80% of activities continuing during the
Around 95% of operating profit is derived       peak of the crisis.                                 Return on capital employed   30.0%   33.8%   39.0%
from its Engineering Services division                                                          Source: Quest®
                                                Renew’s markets are driven by long-term
which focuses on the key markets of                                                             Note: 2020 and 2021 are forecast years
                                                programmes of spending on asset renewal
Energy (including Nuclear), Environmental
                                                and maintenance, often over many years.         The shares trade on an undemanding
and Infrastructure. These are largely
                                                Consequently, it has an order book of loyal,    12-month forward price earnings ratio
governed by regulation and benefit from
                                                long-term customers. The rail business is       of 11.2x, and with minimal debt (£16m
non-discretionary spend with long-term
                                                the group’s largest end market (c.43% of        in March 2020) there is also scope for
visibility of committed funding.
                                                revenue) and is expected to benefit from        earnings-enhancing acquisitions.
This division has national coverage             Network Rail’s ‘Control Period 6’ (CP6*)
                                                                                                Ian Berry
using its engineering workforce,                budget plan which started in April. Renewals
                                                                                                UK Small Cap Equity Analyst
which is supplemented by specialist             and maintenance spend is set to rise 25%
                                                under CP6 which ends in 2024.                    See glossary for definition.
subcontractors in civil, mechanical and
                                                                                                *

electrical engineering applications.
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                                                financial year end, COVID-19 caused the
                                                forced lockdown of Vertu’s dealerships
                                                                                                    Vertu Motors
                                                at the end of March impacting first-half            Share price                  21.6p
                                                trading. Most were reopened on 1 June               Market cap                   £79.2m
                                                and the 12 Scottish sites opened at the                                          2020A   2021F   2022F
The road ahead                                  end of June.                                        Revenue (£m)                   3.1     3.1     3.2
                                                Since reopening, sales and profit have              Earnings per share (p)         8.9     4.9     5.5
Vertu Motors operates a nationwide
                                                recovered strongly. In June the business            Dividend per share (p)         0.6     0.0     1.7
chain of franchised motor dealerships
                                                made £9m in profit – an increase on the
offering sale, servicing, parts and                                                                 Dividend yield                1.6%    0.0%   7.9%
                                                previous year. This is being attributed to
bodyshop facilities for new and used                                                                Free cash flow yield         16.5%   33.7%   24.6%
                                                pent-up demand with consumers having
cars and commercial vehicles. It is the                                                             Price earnings ratio           4.1     4.4     4.0
                                                increased savings ratios during lockdown,
fifth-largest motor retailer in the UK
                                                additional disposable income resulting              Return on capital employed   13.7%    6.2%   6.4%
with 133 sales and aftersales outlets.
                                                from cancelled travel plans and a desire        Source: Quest®
The group operates many of its                  to avoid public transport. Demand was           Note: 2021 and 2022 are forecast years
dealerships as Bristol Street Motors            especially strong in used cars where
                                                                                                Although there is some short-term trading
which is one of the largest automotive          supply constraints are resulting in
                                                                                                uncertainty and concerns over Brexit,
retail brands in the UK. It also has several    margins significantly above normal levels.
                                                                                                recent trade is encouraging, and the shares
premium franchise dealerships such as
                                                An acceleration of technology uptake            are underpinned by a strong balance sheet.
Volvo, Volkswagen, Land Rover, Audi,
                                                across the group enabled Vertu to reduce        Net tangible assets* are 46p a share (a
Mercedes-Benz and Jaguar, and is the
                                                headcount by c.6% over July. This and           50% discount to the share price) backed
largest operator of Honda dealerships
                                                other cost-saving measures are expected         by freehold property assets (c.£181m) and
in the UK. In Scotland it trades under the
                                                to deliver c.£10m in annualised savings.        net cash.
Macklin Motors brand.
                                                The shares currently trade on just 2.4x         Ian Berry
In Vertu’s financial year ending February
                                                prior financial year (to February 2020)         UK Small Cap Equity Analyst
2020, group revenue was up from +3% on
                                                earnings per share, compared with an             See glossary for definition.
the previous financial year with profit and
                                                                                                *

                                                average of 8.4x over the last 10 years.
earnings broadly unchanged. After the
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       When we talk about investing in smaller companies, we typically mean companies listed on AIM or those with a market
       capitalisation of less than £1bn, which are not within the FTSE 100.

                                                                                                                                                    3
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
from paying dividends for the rest of the               level. For the companies fortunate to be
                                                      year. Other areas that were forced to wind              able to do this, we expect the share prices
UK                                                    back on previous dividend commitments                   to react positively given the dearth of
EQUITY                                                include industrials and consumer                        reliable UK dividend income currently on
SCREEN
                                                      discretionary (e.g. retail, housebuilding               offer, coupled with the number of income
Dividend hunting                                      etc) where at least 90% of companies
                                                      cancelled their dividends completely.
                                                                                                              investment managers that became forced
                                                                                                              sellers once the dividends were cut.
It’s no secret that in the last few months
                                                      Nonetheless, there have been a few                      In the last two weeks companies such as
UK dividend income has been decimated by
                                                      pockets of resilience in sectors such as                BAE Systems, Smurfit Kappa (featured as
COVID-19, with 176 companies cancelling
                                                      technology, healthcare, consumer staples,               a separate article in this publication) and
payouts altogether and 30 cutting them in
                                                      mining and utilities who, for the most                  Bodycote have reinstated their dividends
the second quarter alone.
                                                      part, have paid their dividends. There has              having postponed/cancelled them during
Indeed, three quarters of the companies               also been a divergence between big and                  the height of the pandemic.
originally expected to pay a dividend during          small with the top 100 biggest dividend
                                                                                                              The table below shows a list of some of the
the second quarter, ended up either cutting           payers seeing a decline of 45% in dividend
                                                                                                              companies with strong resilient balance
or suspending them, culminating in a 57%              payments compared with 76% for the next
                                                                                                              sheets that we believe are well placed to
drop to £16.1bn - the worst on record.                250 biggest payers.
                                                                                                              reinstate their dividends in the coming
To put this into context, in the aftermath
                                                      To be clear, while we don’t expect an                   months, provided that they continue to
of the 2008 financial crisis just two fifths
                                                      immediate recovery in dividends to                      see improvements to their end markets in
of companies cut or cancelled payouts.
                                                      anywhere near 2019 levels, we do see                    the third quarter.
At a sector level, financials were hit the            scope for some of the companies that
                                                                                                              Simon McGarry
hardest accounting for more than half of the          cut their dividends in recent months to
                                                                                                              Senior Equity Analyst
c.£16bn decline in dividend income, in part           reinstate them in the latter part of this
due to the FCA prohibiting the big UK banks           year, albeit potentially rebased at a lower

                                                                     +12-month forward               Dividend per share           Prior year   Price change over

                                                                   Price           Return on                             Current
                                                      Market    earnings       EPS    capital    2 years                    year Net debt/
 Company name              Industry                value (£m)       ratio   growth employed         ago    Prior year   forecast  EBITDA       3 mths     12 mths

 Persimmon                 Household Durables          7,901        12.2      -7%        31.4%    235.0        235.0      115.4        -0.8        9.1       18.4

                           Interactive Media and
 Rightmove                                             4,930        38.4      12%     821.7%        6.5          2.8        3.5        -0.1       10.8        6.2
                           Services
                           Trading Companies and
 Howden Joinery                                        3,093        22.1      21%        41.4%     11.6         13.0        4.6        -0.9       -7.4       -9.7
                           Distributors
                           Electronic Equipment
 Spectris                  Instruments and             3,042        21.3      -3%        13.1%     61.0         65.1       53.0         0.1       -0.4       -4.6
                           Components

 Dunelm                    Specialty Retail            2,488        25.9       9%        47.6%     26.5         28.0        4.0         0.2       27.7       32.5

 Rotork                    Machinery                   2,481        25.5      -5%        27.1%      5.9          2.3        5.5        -0.6       10.7         -9

 Softcat                   IT Services                 2,383        31.5       7%     161.7%       12.1         14.9       25.3        -0.9        4.5       24.2

                           Trading Companies and
 Diploma                                               2,088        30.4       6%        24.5%     25.5         29.0       16.1         0.1        5.3       23.5
                           Distributors

 QinetiQ                   Aerospace and Defense       1,692        15.7      -1%        14.8%      6.6          6.6        8.8        -0.4       -4.3        0.5

 Keywords Studios          IT Services                 1,386        52.1      28%        13.9%      1.6          0.6        1.7         0.8       16.9       13.9

 Learning Technologies     Software                      938        32.8      -5%        19.0%      0.5          0.8        0.7         0.2       -1.4       12.8

                           Electronic Equipment
 Oxford Instruments        Instruments and               784        25.9     -23%        18.2%     14.4         14.4       12.9          -1       10.3        2.7
                           Components

 4imprint                  Media                         641        38.1      48%        75.5%     54.9         18.9       29.5        -0.7       17.9      -12.9

Source: Quest® and BloombergTM

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       Past performance and future forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

                                                                                                                                                                    4
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
returns filed in the US, highlighting the
                                                 growth opportunity.
                                                                                                  Intuit
                                                                                                  Share price                  US$302
                                                 One of the key barriers TurboTax faces in        Market cap                   US$78.8bn
                                                 gaining market share is that individuals
                                                 prefer professional advice when completing                                    2019A      2020F   2021F
Tax doesn’t have to                              their tax return to guarantee accuracy. To       Revenue (US$bn)                  6.8      7.4     8.0
                                                 overcome this, Intuit launched TurboTax Live
be taxing                                        in 2017, a slightly more expensive version
                                                                                                  Earnings per share (US$)
                                                                                                  Dividend per share (US$)
                                                                                                                                   6.0
                                                                                                                                   1.9
                                                                                                                                            5.5
                                                                                                                                            2.1
                                                                                                                                                    6.6
                                                                                                                                                    2.2
Intuit Inc. (Intuit) is an American business     of the software allowing users to speak via      Dividend yield                 0.8%     0.7%    0.7%
that provides accounting and tax                 video call to professional accountants when
                                                                                                  Free cash flow yield           2.9%     1.9%    2.3%
preparation software. It has two flagship        filing returns. This has helped Intuit gain
                                                                                                  Price earnings ratio            38.7     54.5    45.6
products: QuickBooks, accounting                 market share since launch.
software designed for self-employed                                                               Return on capital employed   128.0% 132.7% 145.7%
                                                 Revenues in the Small Business and
and small and medium-sized businesses;                                                           Source: Quest®
                                                 Self-Employed segment are generated
and TurboTax, software designed to help                                                          Note: 2020 and 2021 are forecast years
                                                 from the sale of QuickBooks, which has
individuals file their income tax returns                                                        practices has seen more individuals try
                                                 multiple versions tailored to meet the
in the US. The business consists of two                                                          the DIY tax software. However, the
                                                 needs of each target market.
main segments: Consumer, and Small                                                               pandemic has also disproportionately
Business and Self-Employed.                      QuickBooks has two main growth
                                                                                                 impacted small businesses, leading to
                                                 opportunities. The first is to expand
The Consumer segment generates                                                                   higher-than-average closures.
                                                 internationally; most revenues are
revenue from TurboTax sales, which                                                               Intuit reports on its first half of the year
                                                 currently generated in the US, with the UK,
provides a cheaper way for individuals                                                           on 21 August and we believe its value
                                                 Canada and Australia seen as core target
to file their tax return than paying a                                                           proposition, mission-critical software should
                                                 markets. The second is through selling
professional accountant. TurboTax has a                                                          support revenues over the second half.
                                                 its software to medium-sized businesses
leading market share of the so-called DIY
                                                 (companies of 10-100 people).
tax return market, but the DIY segment                                                           Dan Smith
still represents less than 50% of all tax        COVID-19 has had mixed impact on the            International Equity Analyst
                                                 business. The closure of accountancy
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These figures above are shown in US dollars (US$). These returns may differ significantly when converted to other currencies at the
prevailing exchange rates.

                                                   of songwriter and producer RedOne
                                                   who has written for a ream of artists              Hipgnosis Songs Fund
                                                   including Lady Gaga, Jennifer Lopez and
                                                                                                      Market cap                  £720m
                                                   One Direction. Lady Gaga’s songs with
                                                                                                      Share price                 117p
                                                   RedOne have achieved more than five
Chart topper                                       billion streams globally.
                                                                                                 Efficiencies in collecting revenue are also
                                                 • The way it structures the purchases of
The Hipgnosis Songs Fund aims to achieve                                                         expected as the fund’s administration is
                                                   songwriters’ music royalties – so for
income and capital growth by investing in                                                        transitioned to Kobalt Music over the next
                                                   example, if a Jennifer Lopez song the
songs (owning songwriters’ music royalties)                                                      two to three years. Kobalt is the preferred
                                                   fund owns gets played on the latest
rather than investing in companies, to                                                           administrator, which claims to be able to
                                                   Apple advert, the fund gets paid before
leverage the global rise of music streaming.                                                     recover 20% more income on a like-for-like
                                                   the advert even airs.
                                                                                                 basis relative to other administrators.
The fund owns 54 catalogues comprised            A long-term tailwind is provided by the
of multiple writers, performers and genres.                                                      Over the past year, the fund’s earnings have
                                                 growth in global music streaming, which is
In total, the portfolio features over 13,000                                                     covered this year’s 5p dividend two times
                                                 showing no signs of slowing. Additionally,
songs, 1,810 number-one hits (in at least                                                        over. We see this as an attractive way to get
                                                 a 2018 US Copyright Royalty Board ruling
one country), 49 Grammy winners – and                                                            exposure to music royalties with a unique
                                                 will increase the US songwriters’ royalty pot
currently generates gross income of c.6.7%.                                                      and proven strategy.
                                                 by 44% by 2022 meaning there is more for
The fund is unique due to:                       the fund to potentially go and buy. Other       Patrick Thomas
                                                 initiatives include having a dedicated team     Investment Director
• The calibre of music it buys – for example,    behind each song the fund owns, ensuring
  it owns the entire 337-song catalogue          that revenues are maximised.
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       Past performance and future forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

                                                                                                                                                     5
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
Profit takers
In addition to providing insight and analysis of particular investment opportunities each month, we also review stocks that have shown
strong performance in recent months and as a result investors might consider taking profits. Please do contact your Investment Manager
to discuss any of these ideas or any other aspect of your portfolio held at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management.

                                                                                                                                   Performance over previous

                                                                    Prior FY    Current FY            Prior FY      Current FY
                                       Market    Share price   dividend per    dividend per    price earnings    price earnings
 Company name                         cap (£m)           (p)       share (p)       share (p)             ratio             ratio   1 mth      3 mths       6 mths

 Indivior                                 993           136             0.0             0.0               4.0            -586.1     62%        168%            265%

 ITM Power                              1,281           268             0.0             0.0              -9.1             -15.0     -3%         71%            157%

 Petropavlovsk                          1,319            40             0.0             0.0              83.4              10.9     28%         59%            129%

 AO World                                 765           162             0.0             0.0            -514.0              39.5     11%        182%            109%

 CMC Markets                              941           326            15.0            15.3               3.9              10.7     20%         57%            107%

 Fresnillo                              9,292         1,261            10.9            13.2              36.9              45.5     50%         75%            104%

 S4 CAPITAL                             1,781           338             0.0             0.0             200.3              47.7     34%         88%            73%

 Hochschild                             1,412           275             1.5             2.2              24.3              60.0     43%        105%            69%

 Ocado                                 15,178         2,059             0.0             0.0             -72.9             -90.6      2%         27%            59%

 Centamin                               2,356           204             3.0             9.4              16.2              15.9     17%         26%            59%

 Polymetal                              9,059         1,920            46.8            79.5              10.5              13.3     21%         17%            54%

 Fevertree Drinks                       2,526         2,173            15.1            15.1              48.3              58.2      4%         27%            51%

 Avon Rubber                            1,024         3,345            20.8            27.1              13.6              35.1      6%         22%            37%

 Games Workshop                         2,993         9,160           145.0           100.0              24.3              44.7     14%         50%            37%

 Plus500                                1,293         1,220            49.1            91.4               7.8               6.3     -7%         -5%            34%

 Flutter Entertainment                 17,905        11,585           196.7            39.4              43.0              33.8      7%         23%            32%

 Avast Plc                              5,950           581            11.1            11.0              15.6              22.5     11%         23%            28%

 Ferrexpo                               1,069           182             5.0            13.5               3.6               5.4      8%         27%            27%

 Gamesys Group                          1,019           937             0.0            24.5               8.4               8.0      9%          2%            27%

 Reckitt Benckiser                     56,604         7,960           174.6           174.7              17.3              25.1      7%         24%            27%

 Team17 Group                             802           610             0.0             0.0              21.3              40.7     11%          6%            26%

 Kainos Group                           1,292         1,058             3.5            12.2              38.9              60.2     41%         47%            24%

 B&M European Retail                    4,637           463             8.1            12.1              18.4              16.3     16%         35%            24%

 Antofagasta                           10,307         1,046            13.4            12.3              24.5              39.4     12%         24%            21%

 Kaz Minerals                           2,637           558             9.1             5.9               5.7               8.7     16%         28%            21%

 Kingfisher                             5,254           250             3.3             3.9              12.7              12.9     12%         57%            20%

 Codemasters Group                        536           354             0.0             0.0              24.1              22.0      2%         30%            20%

 Spirax Sarco Eng                       7,771        10,550           110.0           113.8              30.3              43.6      5%         19%            17%

 Renishaw                               3,498         4,806            60.0             8.5              37.1              66.3     21%         35%            16%

 Rentokil Initial                      10,127           548             5.1             4.1              26.4              46.9      7%         15%            15%

Source: Quest®
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        Past performance and future forecast figures are not a reliable indicator of future results.

                                                                                                                                                                  6
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
Glossary
The glossary is not intended as a technical definition as most of these metrics can be calculated in a number of different ways.

 Control Period 6 (CP6)               Network Rail Control Periods are the five-year time spans into which Network Rail, the owner and
                                      operator of most of the rail infrastructure in Great Britain, works for financial and other planning
                                      purposes. Each Control Period begins on 1 April and ends on 31 March to coincide with the financial
                                      year. CP6 runs from 2019 to 2024.

 Dividend yield                       Dividend per share divided by the share price, often expressed as a percentage. For historic periods
                                      the average share price for the year is used, for forecasts the current share price is used.

 Earnings per share (EPS)             An indicator of a company’s profitability, it is the portion of profit after tax allocated to each
                                      outstanding share in issue.

 EBITDA                               Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation: enables better comparison between
                                      companies as it is not affected by the way that the company is financed or by subjective accounting
                                      charges for depreciation and amortisation.

 Free cash flow yield (FCF yield)     Free cash flow yield is the free cash flow per share (after interest, tax and maintenance capital
                                      expenditure) but before dividend and share buybacks divided by the current share price.

 Net asset value (NAV)                Net asset value (NAV) is the total value of all the securities in its portfolio, less any liabilities of the fund
                                      divided by the number of fund shares outstanding.

 Net tangible assets                  Calculated as the total assets of a company, minus any intangible assets such as goodwill, patents,
                                      and trademarks, less all liabilities and the par value of preferred stock.

 Price earnings ratio (P/E)           Share price divided by EPS. For historic periods the average share price for the year is used;
                                      for forecast years, the current share price is used. It shows how much investors are willing to
                                      pay per pound of earnings.

 Quest®                               Canaccord Genuity’s proprietary online valuation and analytical tool which combines consensus
                                      market figures with the Quest® Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation Model.

 Return on capital employed           A measure of a company’s profitability and the efficiency with which it uses its capital. It is calculated
 (ROCE)                               as operating profit divided by capital employed.

 Tables                               F – forecast results, figures based on the combined estimates of analysts covering the company.
                                      A – actual results, figures based on the company’s published results.

 Vertically integrated                The supply chain of the company is owned by that company.

Investments discussed in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should make their own investment decisions
based upon their own financial objectives and resources, and if in any doubt, seek specific advice from an investment adviser. This
document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment
research and we are not therefore subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination of investment research.

                                                                                                                                                      7
Intelligent Investing | August 2020
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