INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
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CONTENTS FOREWORD 1 Figure 17 Turkish insurance sector total coverage 36 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Figure 18 Insurance sectors support to economic growth 37 2 STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 9 Figure 19 Role of insurance in fostering investments 2.1. Strong demand fundamentals 11 (European example) 38 2.2. Competitive market environment with successful growth 13 Figure 20 Catastrophe recovery role of insurance sector 39 2.3. Challenges on Technical Profitability 14 Figure 21 Combined ratio and technical results breakdown 2.4. Turkey’s potential for increasing insurance penetration 16 by key branches (2018) 46 2.4.1. Motor Third Party Liability insurance 20 Figure 22 Source of financing of total healthcare expenditure 2.4.2. Property insurance 22 in Turkey 49 2.4.3. Health insurance 25 Figure 23 Coverage of public healthcare systems in select 2.4.4. Motor own damage insurance 28 countries 50 2.4.5. Life insurance and Pensions 30 Figure 24 Comparison of pensions contribution p.a. 3 ROLE OF INSURANCE IN SOCIETY 33 penetration vs. life insurance penetration 51 3.1. Economic role of insurance 36 Figure 25 Breakdown of life premiums and # of policies 3.2. Financial role of insurance 37 by sales approach 52 3.3. Disciplining role of insurance 38 Figure 26 Overview of economics of agency channel 53 3.4. Risk management role of insurance 39 Figure 27 Penetration potential 59 4 BARRIERS AND STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE Figure 28 Target state vs. today in key branches 60 INSURANCE SECTOR IN TURKEY 41 Figure 29 Expected GWP in each scenario 61 4.1. Barriers related to general context 42 Figure 30 Expected penetration level in each scenario 62 4.2. Barriers related to market infrastructure 44 Figure 31 Vision and objectives of the insurance sector 64 4.3. Barriers related to branches 45 Figure 32 Strategic initiatives 65 4.4. Barriers related to distribution channels 53 Figure 33 Case examples of insurance sector and 4.5. Barriers related to regulations 55 government collaboration in the UK 67 SECTOR VISION, STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES, AND Figure 34 Insurance awareness program best practices ROAD-MAP 57 in select countries 68 5.1. Growth potential and objectives 58 Figure 35 Case example of Association of British Insurers’ 5.2. Vision and strategic objectives 64 self-regulatory role 70 5.3. Strategic initiatives 66 Figure 36 Key consideration in regulator set-up 71 5.4. Strategic road-map 82 Figure 37 Case example: Regulator set-up in Austria 72 Figure 38 Case example: Regulator set-up in the UK 73 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 39 Case example: Regulator set-up in Spain 74 Figure 1 Key population statistics 11 Figure 40 Role of PMI in national health system in select Figure 2 Gross written insurance premiums and GDP European countries 76 growth rate 12 Figure 41 Micro-insurance offerings targeting micro, Figure 3 Gross written premiums in Turkey 13 small and medium enterprises 78 Figure 4 Insurance sector profitability in non-life and life Figure 42 Approach to address protection gaps 78 branches 14 Figure 43 Case example: Apprenticeship model in the UK 79 Figure 5 Combined ratio in non-life branch (2014-2018) 15 Figure 44 Insurance databases in select European countries 80 Figure 6 Key economic factors imposing challenge on Figure 45 Role of brokers and agencies in select countries 81 insurance sector 16 Figure 46 Licensing requirements for insurance roles Figure 7 Average income by income bands (in deciles) 17 in Spain 82 Figure 8 Median income and insurance & pensions annual Figure 47 Strategic initiative prioritization 83 contribution penetration 18 Figure 48 Time-plan of the strategic road-map 84 Figure 9 Factors affecting insurance penetration by branch 19 Figure 10 Modelling of MTPL penetration 20 LIST OF TABLES Figure 11 Modelling of property insurance penetration 23 Table 1: Sanctions against uninsured vehicles in Figure 12 Property insurance practices in France 24 MTPL branch 21 Figure 13 Modelling of health insurance penetration 26 Table 4 Key characteristics of micro-insurance 48 Figure 14 Private medical insurance in Slovenia 27 Figure 15 Modelling of motor own damage insurance penetration 29 Figure 16 Modelling of life insurance and pensions contribution penetration 31
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 1 FOREWORD VARIOUS STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSURANCE AND PENSION INDUSTRY AND TO INCREASE INSURANCE PENETRATION. TSB PERFORMED A COMMON WORK WITH MEMBER INSURANCE COMPANIES TO ADDRESS THE STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES FOR THE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TO DETERMINE THE 5 YEARS ROAD MAP OF THE SECTOR. As a neutral and reliable authority, of 20% in the last five years, current been conducted and international the vision of the Insurance 2% penetration rate is low compared benchmarking studies have been Association of Turkey is the reference to peer countries with similar income carried out. Growth potential of the institution in the field of insurance levels. Over the past five years, sector has been identified and the and private pension through motor branch have been the driver of barriers that the sector is facing. conducting research, activities of non-life insurance, credit protection In light of the sector’s identified publicity and education, organizing branch and, due to incentives, barriers, a new vision, 5 strategic and coordinating the activities pensions have been the driver of life objectives and a road-map with 14 of all stakeholders in the sector. insurance. Given the current growth initiatives to achieve this vision have Representing the sector at the potential of the sector and future been specified. highest level, TSB conducts studies acceleration in GDP growth of Turkey, We express our gratitude to in line with the sector’s needs, seeks the role of the sector is expected stakeholders of the sector for their solutions for the sectoral issues to become more critical than ever. valuable contributions to this study. and contributes to the sustainable Furthermore, age demographics and We hope that by shaping the sectoral development of the sector. expected population increase rate practices and policies, “Sector are promising in terms of the size of In that regard, TSB has decided to Strategy Report” will be beneficial the population that will create further prepare a roadmap to guide the for our sector, community and other demand for insurance products in sector and to shape the sector stakeholders. short and middle-term. strategy in Turkey. However, there are number of Insurance constitutes one of the structural barriers in the way of key pillars of modern societies. sector development and penetration At its core, insurance creates increase. TSB has conducted a social benefit through pooling study with insurance companies to and distribution of individuals’ and address these barriers and define companies’ risks. In face of adverse a five-year road map for the sector. events, insurers uphold security and With the outcomes of the Strategy stability in the society by covering the Determination Workshop on February losses incurred by individuals and 7, 2019, the Perception Survey companies. report, which was also made by Turkish insurance sector, which dates the Association, constituted other back to 1870s, is going through important sources. To draw a clear critical times. While the premiums in picture of the sector, meetings the sector have grown with a CAGR with various stakeholders have
4 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3% State and potential of the sector years. As past successful growth made a clear investment case Turkish insurance sector has for foreign capital, numerous achieved strong growth in the international insurance companies past few years and the insurance have commenced their operations penetration rate of gross premiums IDEAL PENETRATION and annual pension contributions to in Turkey. 62 insurance companies operating in the sector and their GDP has reached to 2%. Sector can LEVEL OF TURKEY be characterized under 3 themes: market shares indicate strong competition dynamics and a WITH INCOME LEVEL • Sector has strong demand competitive market. fundamentals: Demand • There is potential for higher fundamentals supported by young insurance penetration: Analyses population and expected growth of cross-country penetration after economic stabilization are rates and income levels have promising for the insurance sector. shown that Turkish insurance Young population constitutes a sector has the potential to reach significant component of the Turkish higher penetration rate. While population, hence there is a sizable current penetration rate of 2% is population which is expected to a significant achievement, there demand insurance products. In line is still a long way to provide a with that, companies and individuals better protection against risks for need protection against number of companies and individuals. risks which require social transfer mechanisms for efficient financing. Currently, insurance sector is filling that role in the society and intends to develop and expand that role. • Competitive market environment with successful growth over the past: The sector has achieved strong growth in both life and non-life branches in the past
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 5 Considering income levels in Turkey, Just as it is the case in other Branches: Sustainability of non- insurance sector has potential to countries, insurance sector is critical life insurance is threatened by the reach 3% penetration. Yet, globally for Turkey given its roles. As the heavy focus on motor products and there are countries which have insurance sector develops further, technical losses incurred in MTPL. reached penetration rates beyond it is expected to fulfill its role better Meanwhile, there are significant their fair share. Key differentiator and make greater contributions to protection gaps in many branches, for these countries is positioning of Turkey’s economic development. In implying high vulnerability against insurance by the public authorities. that regard, it is crucial to address adverse events for many households Steps to be taken in this area, Turkey the barriers and structural challenges and businesses. In health, broad reaching a penetration level of over ahead of the sectoral development. coverage by universal health 4% of the insurance sector may insurance compared to international Barriers and structural challenges allow positive decomposed between benchmarks, reduces the need of the insurance sector in Turkey countries. for private health insurance. Main Barriers and structural challenges of challenges in life are life insurance Role of insurance in society the sector are assessed under five positioning and life insurance gap. Main function of insurance is to pillars: Also, sector-wide innovation has been provide protection for individuals and limited. General context: Under this pillar, businesses against adverse events societal challenges or challenges Distribution channels: This pillar out of their control. When certain related to macroeconomic conditions analyzes the challenges pertaining risks realize, insurance supports have been addressed. National to distribution channels. It is recovery processes of individuals and income levels and effects of relevant observed that particularly agencies businesses by compensating their developments are discussed under are struggling to meet the new losses. In addition to that, insurance challenges related to macroeconomic requirements that have emerged sector takes on 4 critical roles: conditions. As national income level in line with market developments. • Economic role: Insurance determines purchasing power and Given the emerging customer trends, supports overall economic growth demand for insurance products, emerging technologies, fragmented though social transfer of risks the penetration rate in Turkey is market structure composed of small that individuals and entities face low compared to the peer middle agencies, limited collaboration of and supports new ventures and income countries. Recognition of agencies with insurers in employee innovation. Insurance supports role of insurance, sector cohesion, development and technological economic stability and protects consumer trust and awareness, investments, business model of investments. prevalence of risky business model in agencies is under threat. Digitalization non-life are the other challenges that in distribution channels has also • Financial role: Insurance are analyzed under this pillar. been limited due to the constraints companies create long-term such as regulatory requirements. funding enabled through assets and Market infrastructure: This As distribution channels hold the liability maturity. It can also provide pillar examines institutions and customer data and relationship, counter-cyclical financing given long- capabilities of the sector. While the insurance companies were not able term and predictable liabilities. sector needs an institutionally and to deepen their relationship with financially independent regulatory • Disciplining role of insurance: customers. body to provide required checks Increase awareness of risks and balances, the association across sectors and individuals and needs to position itself to promote promotes self-protection against sector priorities and act as a strong risks. advocate of these priorities. Most • Risk management role: Provide significant challenges in terms protection through pooling of of capabilities are constraints risks and undertakes burden from in technical and managerial social state in help enterprises and resources, limited development individuals. of next generation technical capabilities (pricing, claims handling, underwriting) and limited use of joint data and analytics.
6 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VISION Regulation: Some of the challenges growth and penetration rate that stated under this pillar limit sector’s is higher than expected levels in ability to adapt global developments cross country comparisons. Launch in the sector. Requirements such of complementary pension system as physical policies and signatures that is currently in the agenda, BECOMING A STRONG restrict the digitalization of closer collaboration with public and processes; complex and expensive regulatory authorities can help the AND SUSTAINABLE product development processes (due sector reach a size of 300-350 billion to approval requirements) restrict TL in the next 5 years. In this case, INSURANCE SECTOR innovation in the sector. While by increasing the penetration rate by TO PROVIDE A unclarity around sector standards and inefficient financial controls make another 1%, with a penetration rate of 4-4.5%, the performance of the SIGNIFICANT it more difficult to constrain the sector will be higher than expected. undesired practices in the sector, CONTRIBUTION TO regulatory unclarities in customer Strategic Objective 1 – Improve customer trust, awareness and rights and data protection create TURKEY’S ECONOMIC challenges regarding customer engagement: Actions regarding consumer-focused approach and AND SOCIAL protection. It is required to perform a critical and detailed review of protection of consumer are critical for reaching this objective. These steps DEVELOPMENT regulations aiming consistency include clarification of contracts, and alignment with technological better monitoring of customer developments satisfaction, clarification of code of Sector vision, strategic objectives, conduct, increasing awareness of road map distribution channels. This objective also includes initiatives around With the critical role of the sector for increasing insurance awareness social and economic development, through the following an engaging growth potential and structural communication strategy. Finally, challenges considered, a new vision, strengthening self-regulation of the strategic objectives and a road map sector to prevent deviations from to reach the objectives have been ethical practices and increasing defined. sector-wide collaboration through the The strategic vision of the sector reform of the sector association is is to “Establish a strong insurance vital for this objective. sector which takes an important role Strategic Objective 2 – Revise a in building Turkey’s future”. To achieve modern institutional structure: this vision, 14 initiatives around Set up of an independent and 5 strategic objectives have been strong regulator is crucial for defined. the development of the sector. With the implementation of the The regulator will contribute to identified initiatives, insurance trustworthiness and efficiency of the penetration of 2% is expected to sector by taking an active role in reach 3% in the next five years and increasing the clarity and consistency the sector is expected to reach a of the regulations and introducing size of 300-350 billion TL with 22% a stricter mechanism to implement CAGR. With support from public financial controls. Another initiative authorities, Turkey can unlock further under this objective is adoption of
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 7 future-looking, stable and consistent Deterrence can be increased help it respond adequately to the regulations. With the adoption by revising the penalties and evolving needs of all stakeholders of more agile product approval collaborating in detecting and tracking in a changing world. One of the processes and establishment of leakages with the authorities. important steps under this objective “sandbox” framework to support is enhancing the skill set of talent Strategic Objective 4 – Expand innovation, the sector’s capacity is pool (in technical and managerial insurance offerings and engage expected to be enhanced. Engaging roles). This initiative covers action with emerging ecosystems: This communication strategy and reform items such as expansion of sector objective is primarily concerned with of TSB mentioned in previous talent pool, creation of talent skilling proliferation of insurance products, objective will support the modern programs. With improvement of increase in penetration rates and institutional structure. sector data sharing and analytics minimization of protection gaps, capabilities and creation of Strategic Objective 3 – Develop hence primary initiative for this databases that enable decision- close and effective partnership objective would be increasing product making, it is aimed to ameliorate with the government and and channel variety to promote technical capability of the sector. regulator: This objective entails inclusiveness. This initiative suggests Finally, agencies which constitute initiatives for working closely with increasing awareness around basic an important stakeholder should be the government and the regulator insurance products (e.g. casco supported in preparing for future to reduce the burden on the public and home insurance), cultivating with emphasis on their financial sector and to develop the insurance products already getting traction sustainability, positioning, ability to sector. One of the areas to work (e.g. cyber risks, credit and surety keep up with digitalized world and together is devising the role of products), strengthening inclusive should be assisted in working more insurance in health system. Role value propositions in insurance (e.g. efficiently. sharing between public and private takaful). In increasing the variety of sectors is critical for the development products, services and channels, of private medical insurance. Another micro insurance products stand out working area would be reduction of as they target low-income households total cost of MTPL and improvement and SMEs. Another important of branch profitability. Efficient use initiative to note is improvement of of data, cost reduction through sector data sharing and analytics preventive measures, more granular capabilities. As part of this initiative, differentiation in pricing in the short- collaboration with authorities is run, switch to free market system necessary for addressing regulatory in the long-run is envisioned under barriers for digital products and this initiative. Repositioning of life services, and implementation of clear insurance considering expected and consistent standards. pension system second Pillar is Strategic Objective 5 – Enhance another important initiative for this sector participants’ capabilities objective. This initiative requires and sophistication: Previous determining the tax benefit in life strategic objectives aim to address products and products that are the relationship of the sector with suitable to the institutional agenda the customer, public and regulatory and designing the support of authorities and to increase efficiency public authorities. Finally, through of the sector. Final strategic objective increased deterrence and stickiness, is structured around building improvement of compliance in the sector’s own capabilities to compulsory lines is recommended.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 9 2 STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR
10 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 20% In last five years, the Turkish • 3. Technical profitability is insurance sector has grown with a challenged by structural hurdles CAGR of 20%. Insurance penetration and the sector is open to the which covers non-life, life and annual macroeconomic effects: Structural pension contributions has reached hurdles affect the sector adversely, CAGR OF INSURANCE to 2%. Yet the market is heavily limiting technical profitability in the SECTOR IN THE LAST focused on motor products. Sector is struggling to achieve a technical non-life branch. Non-life profitability has shrunk over the past years, FIVE YEARS profit, hence relies on investment delivering similar returns to risk- income to make a net profit. free rate in 2018. Profitability levels are above international markets in Market can be characterized under 4 life and pensions branch. main themes: • 4. There is a potential for higher • 1. Strong demand fundamentals: penetration level: Insurance Insurance market in Turkey is penetration is highly dependent underpenetrated and possess on income levels (i.e. ability to upside opportunity given its afford insurance) of a country, yet demographics and economic at branch level there are various growth potential. other drivers for penetration and • 2. Competitive market unique practices emerge to achieve environment with successful penetration above fair share. In growth: Insurance sector is a that regard, there is an opportunity prominent sector in Turkey with to increase the penetration level in broad set of stakeholders. The Turkey. sector has grown with a CAGR of 20% in the last five years, making a clear investment thesis. Competitive market context is established across business branches.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 11 70% 2.1. Strong demand fundamentals 64 years old, pinpointing a large insurable population, and ~25% of the Insurance market in Turkey is population is younger than 15 years underpenetrated and possess upside old indicating strong demand in the opportunity given its demographics mid-term. Furthermore, population and economic growth potential. growth rate is substantially higher TARGET POPULATION Turkey has considerably younger than that of many countries in Europe. BETWEEN AGE OF 15- population compared to European markets, yet the potential has not 64 yet been fully translated in overall insurance sector penetration. ~70% of the population is between 15- Figure 1 Key population statistics1 Population size and growth Population by age group CEE countries, 2017, MM Turkey vs. EU 27, 2017 Population size 2018 (MM) 80.8 46.3 325.9 11.4 66.0 60.6 64.8 10.6 5.7 17.1 10.8 144.0 38.0 82.7 19.6 9.8 42.2 7.1 65+ 1.5% 55-64 1.0% Population growth CAGR (%) 45-54 0.5% Age group 35-44 0.0% 25-34 -0.5% 15-24 -1.0%
12 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR Size of insurance market is closely correlated with overall economic development. Over the past decade, gross written premium evolution resembled GDP growth pattern. Looking forward, GDP growth is promising and is expected to outperform many developed European markets. Figure 2 Gross written insurance premiums and GDP growth rate 2 Historical GDP and insurance GWP growth GDP growth rates1 average in selected countries 2006–2018, (year-on-year change in %) % 32% 1.00 6.5 6.1 30% 0.95 Enforcement of rigid 6.0 0.90 28% MTPL tariffs temporarily decoupled GDP and 0.85 5.5 26% GWP growth in 2016 0.80 5.0 24% 0.75 22% 0.70 4.5 0.65 20% 4.0 0.60 18% 0.55 3.5 3.3 16% 0.50 3.2 0.45 3.0 14% 2.7 0.40 12% 2.5 0.35 2.2 10% 0.30 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 8% 0.25 1.6 1.5 0.20 1.2 1.3 6% Historically there has been a 0.15 1.0 4% strong relationship between GDP 0.10 0.5 2% and GWP, both in nominal and in 0.5 0.4 0.05 real terms 0% 0.00 0.0 Turkey Italy France Germany Spain United Kingdom Poland 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Nominal GDP growth Nominal insurance GWP growth 2013-2017 2017-2023 2 Constant prices (2010); Source: Worldbank, Turkish Insurance Association
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 13 55 2.2. Competitive market is established across business environment with successful branches. growth Insurance sector has reached ~55 BILLION TL Insurance sector is a prominent BN TL in gross written premiums, sector in Turkey with broad set of growing with 20% CAGR over the past 5 years. Non-life branches GROSS WRITTEN stakeholders. The sector has grown with a CAGR of 20% in the last five account for the majority of the market PREMIUMS OF THE years, making a clear investment and share of life has been stable. INSURANCE SECTOR thesis. Competitive market context Figure 3 Gross written premiums in Turkey3 Non-life and Life GWP Segment growth 2014–2018, BN TL (CAGR ’14-18’) 55 54.7 13% 21% 50 (6.9) 46.6 20% 11% 45 15% (6.2) 21% (6.8) 40.5 40 12% 11% (5.0) (5.0) 35 10% 31.0 (4.2) 30 12% (3.8) 26.0 11% 25 13% (3.4) (3.3) 11% (2.9) 20 20% 15 10 76% 77% 77% 75% 76% (19.8) (23.8) (31.2) (34.7) (41.5) 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Life Health P&C 3 Source: TSB Insurance ecosystem in Turkey chambers. Insurance market is Market has attracted significant consists of a number of key fragment with 62 players, and total foreign investment, and majority of stakeholder groups – Associations premiums or fund size of top 5 player the top players are subsidiaries of & Committees, Regulator & in non-life, life and pensions market global insurance incumbents. Share Supervisor, Consumers, Ministries, account for 44%, 53% and 72% of the foreign capital in the sector Insurance companies, Distributors respectively, indicating competitive remains high over the past 5 years at and various supporting entities such market environment. around 70%. as loss adjusters, pools and sector
14 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 2.3. Challenges on Technical profitability in the non-life branches. international markets in life and Profitability Non-life profitability has shrunk pensions branch. Depreciation of over the past years, delivering currency and inflation are negatively Structural hurdles affect the similar returns to risk-free rate in affecting profitability. sector adversely, limiting technical 2018. Profitability levels are above Figure 4 Insurance sector profitability in non-life and life branches4 ROE for Life insurance companies in Turkey Benchmark vs. European peers – Life 2014–2018, TRTK2YT 2016 40% 37.6% 40% 38% 31.3% 31% 30% 30% 27% 25.0% 23.1% 20% 20% 18.0% 20% 18% 16.3% 16.5% 18.1% 14.0% 14.7% 14.6% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 9% 11.5% 8% 7% 7% 9.0% 9.7% 9.6% 5% 2% 0% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Germany Denmark Finland Italy Norway Poland Slovenia Switzerland Brazil Hungary United States Czech Republic Turkey, 2017 Turkey, 2018 ROE Risk Free Rate of TR Risk Free Rate+Equity premium ROE for Non‑Life insurance companies in Turkey Benchmark vs. European peers – Non‑Life 2014-2018, TRTK2YT 2016 25% 23.1% 25% 20% 16.5% 18.1% 20% 20% 20% 14.0% 14.7% 14.6% 19% 20% 15% 18% 15.1% 16% 9.7% 9.7% 13.6% 15% 15% 10% 13% 5% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9.0% 9.6% 11.5% 20.1% 0% -7.4% 5% 5% 4% -5% 3% -10% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Germany Denmark Finland Italy Norway Poland Slovenia Switzerland Brazil Hungary United States Czech Republic Turkey, 2017 Turkey, 2018 ROE Risk Free Rate of TR Risk Free rate + Equity Premium 4 Source: TSB, OECD global insurance trends report, Thompson Reuters Datastream ; Note: Yearly average of 2 year Turkish government bond yield (TRTK2YT) is used as risk-free rate. A constant 5% equity is assumed.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 15 Furthermore, sector was compensating negative technical results with returns from investments, which are mainly investment in low risk local investment vehicles. These vehicles performance is mainly dependent on the interest rates in Turkey. Negative technical results mainly stem from dysfunctional economics of motor third party liability insurance products. Figure 5 Combined ratio in non-life branch (2014-2018)5 Net combined ratios for Non-Life insurance companies 2014-2018 115% 111% 103% 9% 104% 106% 7% Other expense 8% 8% 8% Historically, non-life 22% 21% Distribution commission 22% 21% 21% insurance companies have been making underwriting losses Loss ratio on their books as evidenced by high combined ratios 73% 84% 75% 77% 82% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The underwriting losses have been compensated Net technical result by substantial excl. allocated investment -213 -2,150 -370 -901 -2,367 incomes on income (MM TL) investment, which have led to …And including relatively high RoE investment income 1,084 -418 1,830 2,268 3,273 in the industry (MM TL) 5 Source: TSB, SDK, OECD global insurance trends report, AXCO analysis
16 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR Recent macro-economic and the fall in inflation, is seen as a • Interest rates: Life insurance is developments are expected to positive development. highly dependent on credit-linked challenge sector in near and mid-term life products. In 2017, credit-linked • Inflation: Affordability is very future in three folds: products account for ca. 75% of important factor in insurance, premiums and 55% of policies. • Currency depreciation: Motor high inflation results in loss of Interest rates have increased from lines account for ca. 50% of purchasing power, hence limits low 10%s to above 20% in the last insurance, devaluation affects disposable income for buying few years. High interest rates curb insurers in two-folds, first motor insurance. Furthermore, margins lending volumes which affects credit demand decreases as vehicles in real terms are severely affected linked business, such as term-life prices spike in local currency as insurance prices do not adjust dependent life insurance business, terms, second MTPL premiums are real-time given the policy durations. casco and property insurance. linked to Turkish Liras, yet cost of On the other hand, in the second On the other hand, in the second spare parts increase with foreign half of the year, the stabilization in half of the year, the stabilization exchange, resulting in increased the economy, with the stabilization in the economy, with the fall in claims costs. On the other hand, of exchange rates and the fall interest rate, is seen as a positive in the second half of the year, the in inflation, is seen as a positive development. stabilization in the economy, with development. the stabilization of exchange rates Figure 6 Key economic factors imposing challenge on insurance sector6 Significant currency devaluation Significant inflation Significant increase in interest rates FX rates Consumer price index TRLIBOR1M 7.5 24% 30% 7.0 22% 6.5 20% 6.0 18% 5.5 20% 5.0 16% 4.5 14% 4.0 12% 3.5 10% 10% 3.0 8% 2.5 6% 2.0 1.5 4% 1.0 2% 0% 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 USD/TL EUR/TL 6 Source: Turkstat, Oxford Economics, S&P market intelligence 2.4. Turkey’s potential for Key factors affecting the insurance to increase the role of private increasing insurance penetration penetration can be examined under 3 sector (ex: incentives, compulsory main categories: insurance etc.). Insurance penetration is highly dependent on income levels (i.e. • Macroeconomic factors: Income • Cultural and geographical factors: ability to afford insurance) of a level, workforce participation, Frequency of the risk realization (ex: country, yet at branch level there are insurance affordability, economic high risk of hail storm, hurricanes various other drivers for penetration growth, population growth, share of etc.), risk awareness and social and unique practices emerge to urban population. solidarity. achieve penetration above fair share. • Role of the government: In that regard, there is an opportunity Government’s role in coping with to increase the penetration level in risks (ex: role of government in Turkey. disaster financing), mechanisms
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 17 From insureds perspective, insurance ownership has a direct link with an individual’s income level. Buying behavior can be characterized in four stages: Figure 7 Average income by income bands (in deciles)7 Mean annual income by income decile in Turkey 2017, K USD Significantly below Unable to save Compulsory Short‑term Long‑term poverty risks risks 20 19.2 15 10 8.8 6.8 5.6 5 4.7 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.3 1.4 0 1st Decile 2nd Decile 3rd Decile 4th Decile 5th Decile 6th Decile 7th Decile 8th Decile 9th Decile 10th Decile 7 Source: TurkStat, Türk-iş STAGE 1: Unaffordable STAGE 3: Short-term risks the income (i.e. affordability) is, the higher number of potential insured Individuals who do not have enough As assets of an individual reaches people are. income and do not own assets/ a certain level, ownership of health properties to protect therefore insurance, property insurance, short- In Turkey, equivalized famine line don’t buy (and cannot afford) term life insurance and personal (6.4 K TL/1.8 K USD), minimum core insurance protection (some accident insurance increases. This is wage (17 K TL/4.6 K USD) and penetration in unemployment the first step of voluntary insurance, equivalized poverty line (21 K insurance, credit-linked life, micro as the individual has properties or TL/5.8 K USD) create inherent insurance can be considered here, risks to insure and owns compulsory barriers in increasing penetration by but it does not affect the overall protections. limiting the addressable population profile of the group). with conventional insurance STAGE 4: Long-term risks coverages. STAGE 2: Compulsory insurance Voluntary protection against long Individuals who have enough income term risks such as retirement and to make down payment on a car death happen typically after covering loan or a mortgage typically become for short term risks and requires eligible for compulsory insurance higher income levels. (MTPL, fire, earthquake, credit-linked This behavior is closely linked with life, etc.). income levels. Overall, the higher
18 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR Figure 8 Median income and insurance & pensions annual contribution penetration8 Median equivalized income1 vs. Non‑life + Life + Pension contribution penetration to GDP 2017 16.0% 14.0% Australia Netherlands 12.0% United Kingdom Insurance penetration Finland Denmark 10.0% Canada United States ItalyJ France Chile y 8.0% Japan New Zealand Ireland Sweden Portugal Belgium 6.0% Germany sve v Brazil Slovenia Alm Austria Bl çik Morocco B Russia 4.0% Czech Republic Poland Colombia Slovak Republic Mexico Hungary Vietnam 2.0% Greece Serbia Turkey Tunisia Egypt Sb it nY 0.0% Nigeria - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Median Income, USD 1 “Median income/GDP” of other countries are assumed to be the same for Colombia, Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco 8 Source: TurkStat, OECD, Gallup, Swiss Re, Türk‑iş, Expert opinion Based on the income levels, Turkey’s In addition to income levels, various regression analysis. Accordingly, penetration level – with 2% insurance factors drive insurance penetration outperforming countries were and annual pensions contribution at branch level. To unveil these investigated to identify practices penetration is slightly below its fair factors various factors were tested supporting penetration. share. using single-factor and multi-factor
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 19 Figure 9 Factors affecting insurance penetration by branch9 Factors driving insurance penetration at different stages1 2017 Unaffordable Compulsory Short‑term risks Long – term risks % of population unable to save MTPL Casco Life and Pensions # of vehicles GDP/Capita GPD/Capita # of vehicles/capita Average vehicle age Financial literacy Damage cost/GDP Damage frequency Average individual wealth Leakage Vehicle and part prices Participation in workforce Property2 Health Share of urban population GDP/Capita GDP/Capita # of dwellings/offices Total health spend Directly proportional Crime rate Government share Inversely proportional Participation in workforce 9 Source: TurkStat, WHO, UN, OECD, Eurostat, EC, Insurance Europe, AXCO, World Bank, BMI, Gallup, Swiss Re, CIA Factbook, National Transportation Auth.
20 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 2.4.1. Motor Third Party Liability vehicles, damage costs and leakage. 10% (~1 mm vehicles) but mostly insurance Penetration gap for Turkey in MTPL in motorbikes and tractors at 70% Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) branch is mainly driven by leakage (~2 mm vehicles)) and 50% (~1 mm penetration is dependent on which is at around 20%. Leakage vehicles) respectively. vehicle ownership, total number of is partially at automobiles with Figure 10 Modelling of MTPL penetration10 There is upside potential to increase MTPL penetration in Turkey by minimizing leakage to EU levels MTPL – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels 1.0% 0.0015 0.8% Italy 0.0010 Actual penetration Poland Bulgaria 0.6% Slovenia 0.0005 Croatia Spain Austria. Belgium United Kingdom Germany Czech Republic Turkey Greece 0.4% Finland Portugal 0.0000 Hungary Denmark France Netherlands Norway 0.2% Latvia -0.0005 Sweden 0.0% -0.0010 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% Predicted Penetration -0.0015 Croatia Denmark United Kingdom Czech Republic Poland Belgium Italy Hungary Spain Germany Greece Norway Slovenia Austria Sweden Finland Latvia Bulgaria Netherlands Portugal France Turkey # of vehicles # of vehicles/capita Damage cost/GDP Leakage1 10 Source: AXCO, Eurostat, Insurance Europe, World Bank, OECD, TurkStat, European Automotive Manufacturers’ Association Countries with low level of MTPL leakage established deterrence mechanisms with strong sanctions.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 21 Table 1: Sanctions against uninsured vehicles in MTPL branch11 Country Enforcement practice Monetary Penalty Turkey • Monthly penalty is imposed to owners of uninsured cars 0.16% of premium • Owners of uninsured cars lose their right to no claims discount (monthly accrued in case insurance is not renewed) Croatia • Awareness program “Stop Uninsured Driving” initiated - • Intensified police effort Czech Republic • Daily penalty imposed to owners of uninsured cars USD 2 (daily) • Penalties fund compensation of victims of uninsured drivers and guarantee MTPL obligations Denmark • Daily penalty imposed to owners of uninsured cars USD 37 (daily) • Further incompliance leads to removal of vehicle from the register and removal of license plate United Kingdom • Owners of uninsured cars risk one time monetary penalty GBP 1000 (one time) • Uninsured cars taken away from owners 11 Source: AXCO, Insurance Europe, public commentaries
22 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 2.4.2. Property insurance participation in workforce explain some countries stand out with high property insurance penetration. insurance penetration in the branch. GDP per capita, number of dwellings Yet, in addition to these factors and offices, burglary rate and
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 23 Figure 11 Modelling of property insurance penetration12 Turkey is at expected level given underlying drivers of penetration Property insurance – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels 0.5 1.4% Denmark 0.4 1.2% 0.3 1.0% Actual penetration 0.2 0.8% France Austria Sweden 0.1 Spain Slovenia Belgium 0.6% Norway Cyprus United Kingdom 0.0 Czech Republic Germany Netherlands Finland Hungary 0.4% Portugal Croatia -0.1 Bulgaria Italy Poland Turkey Malta Greece 0.2% -0.2 Latvia 0.0% -0.3 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% -0.4 Denmark France Cyprus Spain Slovenia Hungary Austria United Kingdom Bulgaria Turkey Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Portugal Norway Sweden Poland Italy Finland Latvia Germany Greece Malta Netherlands Predicted Penetration GDP/Capita # of dwellings/offices Crime rate1 Participation in workforce 12 Source: AXCO, Eurostat, European Commission Energy Department Buildings Database, UN, Worldbank, TESK, Minister of Technology and Sector press release Government’s approach to disaster and calamities compensation act. expects landowners to secure their recovery financing is an important Therefore, property insurance assets against storms and hails. determinant of property insurance penetration is lower than that is Furthermore, property insurance is penetration. In Netherlands, although expected in the country. Whereas compulsory for mortgaged properties country is prone to flood risk, flood in Denmark, hail and storm related which also supports penetration. risk considered uninsurable and climate risk is high yet government hedged through disaster funds has very low intervention and
24 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR Figure 12 Property insurance practices in France13 PROPERTY INSURANCE PRACTICES IN FRANCE Property insurance in France GDP penetration in X3.6 GDP/Capita PPP x1.6 0.8% 42,850 respective branch Turkey (USD) Turkey Additional factors Level Description Extent of Mortgage lenders require property owners to insure the enforcement buildings. For rental property, tenant is obliged to obtain a property insurance. Voluntary Conditional Compulsory Cancellation Cancellation within the first year is not possible. policies Cancellation of insurance contract only possible with the proof of another replacing contract. There are also Flexible Strict auto‑renewal clauses in contracts, increasing stickiness. Contract periods Duration of contracts for large corporate accounts is 2–3 years Annual Long‑term Insurance There is a better understanding of risks and higher level awareness of insurance awareness in France. Low High 13 Source: AXCO, press releases France is also one of the countries France, tenants are obliged to obtain policy requires a proof of replacement where property insurance penetration property insurance and auto-renewal contract from another company or higher than expected levels. In is common practice. Cancellation of a end of rental agreement.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 25 2.4.3. Health insurance government‘s share in healthcare insurance penetration. Considering financing. High national spend on Turkey’s situation among those Health insurance penetration healthcare, high GDP/Capita and metrics slightly below the expected is dependent on total spend on low share of public financing drives penetration level. healthcare, GDP/capita and
26 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR Figure 13 Modelling of health insurance penetration14 Turkey is at expected level given the factors driving health insurance penetration Health – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels 5.00% 1.2% United States 4.50% 1.0% 4.00% 0.8% Realized penetration 3.50% 0.6% 3.00% 0.4% 2.50% 0.2% 2.00% Switzerland Slovenia France 0.0% 1.50% Germany Australia -0.2% 1.00% Austria Portugal Brazil 0.50% -0.4% Poland United Kingdom Turkey Norway 0.00% -0.6% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% -0.8% Predicted penetration Slovenia Australia France Canada Germany Denmark Poland United States Mexico New Zealand Austria Russia Portugal Colombia Turkey Czech Republic Slovak Republic Italy Belgium Argentina Chile United Kingdom Switzerland Hungary Norway Brazil Greece Sweden GDP/Capita Total health spend Government share 14 Source: OECD, Eurostat, Worldbank, WHO, AXCO countries where above the expected government pays for certain portion longer with minimum contract period level penetration is achieved, for of the cost. Rest is either financed of 18 months. To incentivize early instance, in Slovenia or Australia a out of pocket, or most commonly adoption, delays in obtaining voluntary number of practices are observed. paid by a supplementary insurance. supplementary insurance is penalized Cancellation policies are flexible with an additional levy on premiums. In Slovenia, a co-payment model to consider consumer protection is used, in which depending on angle. Typically contract periods are the criticality of the treatment
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 27 Figure 14 Private medical insurance in Slovenia15 PRIVATE MEDICAL INSURANCE IN SLOVENIA In Slovenia, a co-payment model out of pocket, or most commonly paid longer with minimum contract period is used, in which depending on by a supplementary insurance. of 18 months. To incentivize early the criticality of the treatment Cancellation policies are flexible adoption, delays in obtaining voluntary government pays for certain portion to consider consumer protection supplementary insurance is penalized of the cost. Rest is either financed angle. Typically contract periods are with an additional levy on premiums. Private medical insurance in Slovenia GDP penetration in x7.1 GDP/Capita PPP x1.3 1.5% 34,900 respective branch Turkey (USD) Turkey Factors Level Description Coverage of public Typically uses a co‑payment model. Depending on facilities criticality of the operation co‑payment contribution varies Low High Extent of Insurance has a mandatory part which is run by Health enforcement Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Yet, majority of population supplements/complements to the mandatory portion to increase co‑payment coverage Voluntary Conditional Compulsory Cancellation Easy to cancel as auto‑renewal does not exist. Also policies requires 30 days notice for cancellation Flexible Strict Contract periods Minimum contract period is 18 months for health policies Annual Long‑term Other factors Delays in obtaining a voluntary supplementary insurance (after becoming eligible for mandatory insurance) results in 3% premium loading 15 Source: AXCO In Australia, a different model penalties such as surcharge for health insurance packages with is place. Government strongly purchase at old age or uninsured high easy to understand restrictions incentivized private medical insurance income earners. and coverage. Although the model (PMI) and public system requires - “Government recognizes the fact supported insurance penetration additional coverage such as access to that private healthcare users take and presents a good example for private hospitals, dental, spectacles, pressure off the public system, collaboration between insurers and home nursing etc. which are especially with respect to public government, it hinders a healthy addressed by PMI. Almost half of hospitals.” competitive market environment as the population own private medical the model is community rated rather insurance. Government incentives – Health insurance association of than individual risk rated and risk- include rebates on health insurance Australia - equalization mechanisms are in place premiums depending on age and Lately, in collaboration with insurers to reallocate risks among companies. income, young buyer discount and government created standard
28 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 2.4.4. Motor own damage Turkey has further upside potential bundle offerings with MTPL either insurance in terms of penetration. Although as a complementary partial or in MOD branch, other than these comprehensive own damage cover Motor own damage (MOD) metrics success is heavily dependent (often adding extended liability penetration is dependent on GDP per on company performance and cultural coverage as well) Capita, average vehicle age, damage aspects, in many country companies frequency and vehicle and part prices.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 29 Figure 15 Modelling of motor own damage insurance penetration16 There is further upside potential to increase Casco penetration in Turkey Casco – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels 0.3% 0.70% Denmark 0.60% Slovenia France 0.2% Switzerland 0.50% Actual penetration Sweden Spain 0.40% Finland 0.1% Slovak Republic Norway Czech Republic Malta Poland Latvia 0.30% Netherlands Croatia Germany Turkey 0.0% 0.20% Portugal Hungary Italy 0.10% Greece -0.1% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70% -0.2% Predicted penetration Slovenia Denmark Finland Poland Czech Republic Spain Croatia Sweden France Slovak Republic Hungary Switzerland Malta Germany Netherlands Turkey Portugal Norway Greece Latvia Italy GDP/Capita Damage frequency Average vehicle age Vehicle and part prices 16 For Switzerland, Spain and Netherlands damage frequency is assumed to be average of Western European peers; for Latvia, Eastern European peers Source: AXCO, Eurostat, Insurance Europe, World Bank, OECD, TurkStat, European Automotive Manufacturers’ Association
30 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR 2.4.5. Life insurance and Pensions penetration is mainly dependent on of urban population. Turkey has room GDP per capita, financial literacy, for increasing penetration in this Life and pension penetration - average individual wealth levels, branch. measured as life insurance premiums participation in workforce and share and annual pensions contribution -
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 31 Figure 16 Modelling of life insurance and pensions contribution penetration17 Life + pension penetration Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels 4% 10.0% 9.0% United Kingdom 3% 8.0% Denmark Chile 7.0% Iceland Actual penetration Italy France 2% 6.0% Netherlands Sweden 5.0% 1% Canada 4.0% Portugal Norway Belgium Estonia Spain 3.0% Finland 0% Czech Republic Germany Austria 2.0% Slovenia Mexico Poland Hungary 1.0% -1% Turkey Greece Latvia 0.0% -2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Predicted Penetration -3% Chile Italy United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands Estonia France Poland Czech Republic Slovenia Iceland Hungary Portugal Sweden Turkey Germany Norway Finland Austria Mexico Latvia Canada Spain Belgium Greece GPD/Capita Financial literacy Average individual wealth Participation in workforce Urban Population 17 Source: OECD, Worldbank, Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, Credit Suisse In addition to aforementioned metrics, Furthermore, protection and annuities are limited. Term life and role of government is critical in life savings lines are tax incentivized and endowments are main lines in the and pensions branch. For example, unemployment and funeral insurances life insurance branch. Although in Chile which achieved significantly are compulsory. life insurance for mortgages is not above its fair share, a mandatory mandatory, it has notable size (over In the UK, auto-enrolment system funded pensions scheme is in place, one third of the term life business) is in place which boosts penetration minimum level of contribution is set and a common practice, which grew through occupational pensions and to 10% of income. At the time of with growing mortgage business over tax benefits exist. Cancellation is retirement pensioner can opt for the last few years. Multi-benefit plans harder with deterrence mechanism pension payment, an annuity or a are common combining life, critical established to prevent early exist. combination of both. Many individuals illness, unemployment covering who is not willing to carry longevity Majority of annuity business is individual and family members. risk transfer pension to life insurance conversion of pensions pot into companies for annuity payments. annuities and purchased life
32 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 33 3 ROLE OF INSURANCE IN SOCIETY
34 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024) 3. ROLE OF INSURANCE IN SOCIETY18 Main benefit of the insurance is risks of insureds, insurance is often • Disciplining role of insurance: generally perceived as it provides a precondition for the development Increase awareness of risks protection against risks that of other productive activities, such across sectors and individuals and individuals and entities have limited as buying a home and starting or promotes self-protection against control. Had the risk been realized, expanding a business. risks. insurance would support them in Role of insurance can be summarized • Risk management role: Provide recovery. Although hedging and in four holistic groups: protection through pooling of mitigating such risks is a key function risks and undertakes burden from of insurance, it is just one of its • Economic role: Insurance social state in help enterprises and roles in the broader context. In case supports overall economic growth individuals. of small businesses it may mean though social transfer of risks spending all lifetime savings for that individuals and entities face recovery of a disaster or in case of and supports new ventures and life insurance it may mean providing innovation. enough income for one’s family in • Financial role: Insurance case of death. companies create long-term Insurance, however, has much funding enabled through assets and more comprehensive impact than liability maturity. It can also provide provision of protection, though its counter-cyclical financing given long- value to government, financial sector, term and predictable liabilities. businesses and public derive from this primary function. Because it manages, diversifies and absorbs the
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