Industry Report Real Estate Services in Australia - Whiteark
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Industry Update Real Estate Services in Australia WHITEARK.COM.AU The Real Estate Services industry is forecast to expand over the next five years by 2.4% to $29.7B. Industry operators primarily appraise, purchase, sell (by auction or private treaty), manage or rent residential property, commercial property, or a combination of the two. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW SEGMENTATI ON OF PRODUCTS AND SERVI CES SHARE OF I NDUSTRY REVENUE Property sales | increased as a share of industry revenue over the last 5 years due to increased investor demand and falling interest rates. Property management | declined in share of revenue due a fall in the number of 69% properties sold for investment purposes and growth in other segments. Property lending | Increased demand for rental properties has led to this segment increasing as a share of revenue. Demand for residential rental property has increased due to rising housing prices. Furthermore, numerous owners of commercial properties have adopted sale and leaseback schemes to gain access to more income in the short term. 15% Other including property valuations, fiduciary and escrow consulting, consultancy fees, 7% and reimbursement from property owners | growth in other segments and increasing competition from online services have caused this segment to decline as a share of 9% revenue. EXTERNAL FACTORS Number of Mortgage Residential Consumer Residential housing transfers affordability housing loan rates sentiment index housing prices SUPPLY CHAIN REAL ESTATE SERVICES IN AUSTRALIA SUPPLIERS BUYERS 1st Tier 1st Tier • Specialised Design Services in Australia • Office Property Operators in Australia • Wired Telecommunications Network Operation in • Retail Property Operators in Australia Australia • Industrial and Other Property Operators in • Wireless Telecommunications Carriers in Australia Australia 2nd Tier • Residential Property Operators in Australia • Computer System Design Services in Australia • Finance in Australia • Computer and Computer Peripheral Wholesaling in 2nd Tier Australia • Consumers in Australia • Computer and Electronic Equipment Repair in Australia Source: IBISWorld | Real Estate Services in Australia July 2019
Industry profitability has fallen over the past five WHITEARK.COM.AU years, due to intense industry competition and an increasingly saturated market. DEMAND DETERMINANTS Demand is mainly influenced by the level and value of property sales and leasing activity. Factors influencing the number of property transactions include property values and yields, interest rates, economic growth, business profitability, household incomes, household wealth, taxation regulations, growth and ageing of the population, rising employment and the number of people per household. Demand for residential real estate services is also affected by the frequency with which people move homes and the extent to which people invest in rental housing property assets. Residential property revenue is positively affected by population growth, new home construction, low interest rates, the availability of flexible mortgage products and the volume of the total stock of housing. Revenue also increases when housing prices rise at a relatively fast rate, as growing household wealth drives consumers to either relocate to areas with superior facilities or invest in residential property. Furthermore, workforce growth and increased retiree mobility have boosted housing sales activity. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND OPERATING CONDITIONS STRUCTURE OVERVIEW POSITIVE IMPACT MIXED IMPACT NEGATIVE IMPACT Technological Change Low Revenue Volatility Medium Industry Assistance Low, Steady Capital Intensity Low Life Cycle Mature Competition High, Increasing Concentration Low Barriers to Entry Medium Regulation/Policy High Industry Globalisation High KEY SUCCESS FACTORS Given the high level of competition, real estate agents that use an aggressive marketing approach can benefit from referrals and an extensive client base. Ability to effectively communicate and negotiate. Operators that effectively manage their properties and tenants can maintain client loyalty, and build a long-term leasing revenue stream. Having contacts within key markets will enable real estate agencies to generate more business and provide more detailed services to customers. Industry operators that conduct property/market research activities can strengthen their sales revenue and property management activities. Customers tend to prefer operators located close to the markets that they serve. Sellers often seek agents with a knowledge of local properties comparable to their own. Access to highly skilled workforce. Operators need to offer competitive commission structures to attract and retain skilled sales staff. Source: IBISWorld | Real Estate Services in Australia July 2019
Property listing websites are gradually changing the landscape within the Real Estate Services Industry. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND OPERATING CONDITIONS INTERNAL COMPETITION EXTERNAL COMPETITION Firms need to focus on factors such as developing a Arises when a vendor finds a buyer for the property referral base, managing clients, office fit-out, without the services of real estate agents. This trend selecting sales staff, training, and monitoring and has increased due to online listing websites motivating staff. (Gumtree) where vendors are able to advertise Real estate agents also use effective properties without paying commissions to real estate advertising/promotion approaches to gain a agents, minimising selling costs. competitive advantage. POTENTIAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION FACTOR LEVEL DISRUPTION Rate of innovation Medium Potential Adding new patent technologies is in line with the average across all industries. Innovation concentration Very High Very Likely However, concentration of technologies is Ease of entry Very High Very Likely high which creates potential for innovation outside the focus of industry leaders to gain Rate of entry Very High Very Likely traction. Market concentration Medium Potential PROPERTY LI STI NG WEBSI TES ARE CHANGI NG THE LANDSCAPE… Driven locally by activities undertaken by domain.com.au and realestate.com.au, which have a dominant market share within the real estate advertising marketplace. Property listing websites have national and even international reaches, significantly increasing exposure to potential purchasers. Furthermore, specialist listing websites such as myfun.com are being established, and offer Australian property for sale to overseas markets. These websites have been gradually adding new features over the past five years. As a result, these websites are increasingly able to provide the specialist advice regarding valuations and neighborhood amenities that were previously sought from real estate agents. Virtual tours offer the ability to view a property for sale or for lease remotely. Virtual tours can streamline inspection processes, decreasing the labour requirements for industry operators. In the future, VR headsets are expected to be an increasingly common way to present virtual tours. Household and commercial VR headset technology is increasing in popularity and can provide another way for real estate agencies to market properties for sale. Source: IBISWorld | Real Estate Services in Australia July 2019
A booming residential property market has supported operators in the Real Estate Services industry over the past five years. CURRENT PERFORMANCE 2015 - 2020 REVENUE PROFIT PROFIT MARGIN $23.6B 5.4B 20.4% ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 +1.2% -3.0% -4.8pp BUSINESSES EMPLOYMENT WAGES 40K 137K $8.2B ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 ANNUAL GROWTH 2015-2020 +1.2% +2.5% +0.9% REVENUE TRENDS 2015-2020 Revenue $B Revenue Growth % 9.2% 7.1% 5.0% 28.5 27.9 26.8 26.1 26.3 -2.2% 24.9 -4.0% -1.7% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Industry revenue has grown over the five years 2015-2020 to 1.2%, mostly driven by government initiatives, low interest rates and strong demand for properties. Over the last couple of years, the residential property market has slowed mostly due to government restrictions on foreign investments, declining property prices and disruption from COVID-19. Falls in Sydney and Melbourne markets have reduced average housing prices nationally, with stagnant/declining prices reducing the supply of residential properties. Investor-led purchases and baby boomers increasingly downsizing to smaller properties have benefited property sales and property management segments. Activity in the commercial real estate market has been subdued, although activity has been more positive in Sydney and Melbourne. Most demand growth for commercial property has occurred in the office property segment as the Australian economy shifted from a manufacturing-base to a service-base. IIndustry operators that focus on office property management have benefited, as most new service-based businesses rent or lease their office space. The retail and industrial property markets have both grown modestly. Retailers' performances have been constrained by negative consumer sentiment and growing competition from online retailers. Australia's shift from manufacturing has negatively affected the industrial property market with falling manufacturer numbers constraining growth in demand for industrial property. Despite strong growth in the residential property market boosting demand for industry services, fierce competition among industry operators and intensifying competition from online services has reduced industry profit margins. The digitisation of real estate services is anticipated to challenge traditional operators. Source: IBISWorld | Real Estate Services in Australia July 2019
Online property portals, such as realestate.com.au and Domain.com.au, are anticipated to increase their market share over the next five years. OUTLOOK 2020 - 2025 REVENUE FORECAST 2020-2025 Revenue $B Revenue Growth % CAGR 3.2% +2.4% 2.8% 2.7% 1.5% 1.9% 26.3 -1.7% 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.7 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 OVERVIEW Residential housing prices are expected to rise, driving an increase in the number of housing transfers. However, forecast increases in loan rates and growing competition from digital competitors are anticipated to constrain revenue growth. Strong consumer demand and higher sales prices will boost operators' commissions, although this increase will likely be offset by increased investment in technology to enhance their operations. Online listings are anticipated to increasingly compete with the industry's services, as they allow vendors to bypass real estate agents. The commercial property market is anticipated to strengthen. Demand for office space is projected to increase as Australia continues to transition to a service-based economy. In addition, demand for industrial real estate is anticipated to grow marginally. Demand for retail space affiliated with food consumption, such as restaurants, cafes and bars, is likely to remain higher than demand in the wider retail property market. Technological advancements are likely to increase the popularity of virtual property tours. Operators are also anticipated to adopt new application processes that incorporate customers' smartphones and dedicate more of their marketing budget to online initiatives. External competition trends that have developed over the past five years, primarily relating to the digitisation of real estate services, are expected to continue. Several real estate advertising websites have caused controversy by using their increasing market power to raise advertising costs, using their data for free property valuations and approaching vendors directly to upsell advertisements. Some property operators have responded by withholding price advertisements from their websites, which has affected property valuation data. The industry's new operating environment will require firms to reassess their business models to ensure they retain a significant role in selling and managing property. Employment is forecast to rise over the next five years, with many operators responding to rising competition by employing additional staff with greater expertise and technical knowledge to retain or win customers. Source: IBISWorld | Real Estate Services in Australia July 2019
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