INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
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Accelerating success. MAXIMISE THE POTENTIAL OF DATA IN-DEPTH DATA At the forefront of the real estate industry, we Granular datasets covering historical understand the demand and forecast data with over 2,000 datapoints updated quarterly. for reliable and accurate data is more prevalent than ever. Our enterprising technology, Colliers Edge, offers comprehensive DETAILED property data that enables TRANSACTIONS you to delve deeper into the Australian property Individual reporting of market, using data to major transactions. become more informed and deliver enduring value. Colliers Edge is a data subscription service developed by our in- INSIGHTS house research experts, Our experienced research team who collaborate with will help you understand quarterly our National network changes, as well as broader themes of operators to drive behind each sector and market. exceptional results. Joanne Henderson Director | Research +61 410 391 093 joanne.henderson@colliers.com colliers.com.au/colliersedge
CONTENTS Snapshot | Industrial & Logistics 4 National Overview 5 Sydney 7 Melbourne 10 Brisbane 13 Adelaide 15 Perth 17 Newcastle 19 Our Expertise 21 Accelerating success.
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS SNAPSHOT Brisbane* Net Face Capital Incentive Land Yield Rent Value Level Value $/sqm % $/sqm % $/sqm H1 2020 (Q1) $111 5.94% $1,874 16.2% $321 H2 2019 (Q3) $111 5.94% $1,874 16.2% $321 Sydney Net Face Capital Incentive Land Yield Rent Value Level Value $/sqm % $/sqm % $/sqm H1 2020 (Q1) $153 4.70% $3,292 9.3% $1,057 H2 2019 (Q3) $150 4.75% $3,162 9.2% $911 Adelaide Melbourne Net Face Capital Incentive Land Net Face Capital Incentive Land Yield Yield Rent Value Level Value Rent Value Level Value $/sqm % $/sqm % $/sqm $/sqm % $/sqm % $/sqm H1 2020 (Q1) $102 7.44% $1,410 11.6% $207 H1 2020 (Q1) $113 5.53% $2,052 14.3% $407 H2 2019 (Q3) $102 7.56% $1,385 11.3% $205 H2 2019 (Q3) $111 5.73% $1,975 14.3% $393 Perth * Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala Net Face Capital Incentive Land Yield Rent Value Level Value $/sqm % $/sqm % $/sqm H1 2020 (Q1) $79 6.87% $1,153 14.5% $440 H2 2019 (Q3) $79 6.91% $1,146 17.5% $441 Transport Infrastructure Projects, Billions (AUD) Share of Industrial Supply to be Delivered 2020 to 2023 $90 $80 4% $70 8% $60 $50 $40 20% 41% $30 $20 $10 $0 New South Victoria Queensland South Western Multiple 27% Wales Australia Australia States/Other Committed Possible Pending Under construction Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Source: Deloitte Access Economics Source: Colliers International 4
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 NATIONAL COVID-19 to drive e-commerce structural shift The value of e-commerce has increased exponentially as a result of OVERVIEW COVID-19 and the take-up of online retail will gain market share on brick-and-mortar retail sales as consumers are forced to buy online. COVID-19 is expected to lead to a significant structural and cultural shift in the way consumers buy their goods, many of which have not By Luke Crawford Associate Director | Research shopped via online platforms before. Long term, these buying habits luke.crawford@colliers.com are expected to be permanent as consumers become accustomed to the simplicity of online shopping and as a result COVID-19 will The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on financial accelerate the growth of online retail. markets globally. As a result, global economic growth will contract over the short term and many are now starting to draw comparisons Highlighting the persistent demand for online retail goods due to with the GFC in 2008 with regards to both occupier and investment global lockdown restrictions, Amazon in the US have hired 100,000 markets. The reality is, it remains too early to draw any major employees to cater towards its spike in demand for e-commerce conclusions and comparisons to the GFC as the COVID-19 situation goods. In Australia, we have seen retailers shift some of their staff to is still unfolding. However, recent data highlights that the ‘curve is online fulfilment as they try to keep up with demand while there have flattening’ which remains positive for the Australian economy over also been cases of retailers using their existing stores as smaller the short term when compared to other countries such as the US fulfilment centres or ‘dark stores’. Notably, this includes Kmart and and UK. Accent group which owns Athlete’s Foot, Platypus and Hype DC. Unlike the GFC where rents contracted between 9% and 25% in the Despite recent growth, the proportion of online retail sales in prime market and 15% and 25% in the secondary market depending Australia remains relatively small at 6.6%, particularly when on location and yields blow out to 8.5% for prime and 9.5% for compared to other global markets such as the US and UK where it secondary along the East Coast, industrial and logistics property is as high as 22%. However, given the abovementioned structural is well placed to ride out the short-term uncertainty. This outlook shift, we are forecasting that the share of online retail in Australia is underpinned by the recent growth in demand for transport and will more than double over the next few years. For the industrial and logistics and its key role to play in keeping the basic day to day logistics market, this will result in heighted demand for both larger necessities of Australians in supply. Notwithstanding this, there are distribution centres and smaller last mile centres close to densely going to be tenant casualties who are unable to trade through this populated areas. period and there are going to be others who experience a significant Online Retail Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales pick-up in business revenue. Tenant covenants will be increasingly 20% scrutinised going forward and length of WALE will never be more important as the flight to quality thematic plays out. 18% 16% While certain locations may see a fall in rents and a rise in incentives, we do not expect it to be to the same extent as we saw in the GFC. 14% Likewise, we do not expect yields to blow out by 150 basis points as 12% they did in the GFC. While there may be some softening of yields for 10% secondary assets as risk becomes priced in, core assets with strong 8% businesses within will remain highly sought after by both domestic and global capital and yields will remain firm. 6% The fundamentals for industrial and logistics property remain sound 4% over the long term and as a result the sector is expected to be 2% less impacted than others through this period. With the exception 0% of population growth which will take a hit in the short term as Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 net overseas migration drops significantly off the back of border closures, the other key drivers of infrastructure investment and Historical Base Case High Case growth in e-commerce will continue to remain strong in the current Source: ABS, Colliers International environment. 5
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 Occupier Market On the supply side, construction levels are expected to wane as developers place their short-term developments on hold. Unlike the At the beginning of the year we were expecting 2020 to be a GFC where vacancies were much higher than they are now and record year in terms of demand. In 2019, approximately 3.8 million supply was above current levels, a supply and demand mismatch is sqm of industrial and logistics space was leased (1,000sqm+), expected to remain in key markets. Broadly speaking, net face rents representing the second highest annual total on record. While are expected to remain at current levels with owners instead opting enquiry levels remain healthy in most markets, demand has shifted to drive incentives to secure tenants. towards defensive occupiers including food and beverage retailers, e-commerce groups (including fast moving consumer goods), Once coronavirus is contained and the impacts to businesses over transport and logistics providers, data centres and cold storage the medium term are better understood, we expect a significant pick- occupiers. Other businesses who were previously in the market for up in leasing activity as businesses begin to regroup and move ahead new or expansionary space have since placed these decisions on with previous capital expenditure plans. hold as they determine the impacts of COVID-19 on their business. Investment Market While long term requirements (10+ years) are still coming Investment volumes have weakened over the first quarter of 2020, through, there has been a notable spike in enquiry for short term with investment activity in the quarter being at its lowest level since overflow space and fulfillment centres. Highlighting this was the 2010. The weaker activity is the result of several institutions and announcement in late March that Coles will open three ‘pop-up’ corporates holding off on their divestment mandates as they wait to distribution centres in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland see the impact on headline investment metrics such as cap rates, to cater towards the rapid growth in food and grocery purchases. IRRs and value per square metre rates. Consumers are increasingly shifting their spending habits to non- discretionary goods and as a result expenditure at supermarkets Notwithstanding this, there remains substantial levels of capital is up 3.6% over the past year, while takeaway services and seeking to expand within the Australian logistics sector. More pharmaceutical goods are up even higher at 5.1% and 6.6% recently, private investors have become more active, particularly respectively in the year to February 2020, compared to 1.8% for all along the East Coast capital cities. Institutions remain focussed on retail goods. increasing their assets under management, however, their attention has shifted towards prime assets in core locations with sound Another positive that may emerge from the pandemic outbreak will covenants and long WALEs. be growth in the local manufacturing sector as certain products and goods are made locally to ensure future availability of these essential Up until recently, risk was often overlooked as groups aggressively products. The early signs of this are starting to emerge in food and expanded their presence in the market and as a result, there was pharmaceutical manufacturing industries and will assist the logistics little (if any) discount applied to weaker assets that didn’t have the sector through both increased domestic and offshore consumption. covenant or length of lease of prime core offerings. However, recent events have forced groups to reassess risk and chase security On the other hand, there are industrial and logistics businesses who and subsequently, the flight to quality will persist as the distinction are struggling in the current environment and will continue to do so and pricing between grades, locations and covenants comes to the over the foreseeable future. As a result, a large number of occupiers forefront. have approached their landlords for rental relief, particularly at the smaller end of the market where businesses don’t have the same What this ultimately means for the industrial and logistics market economies of scale as larger occupiers. While these requests need is that prime assets (both in regard to location and quality of the to be assessed on a case by case basis, it is important that they are building) with a strong covenant and long lease will be highly sought. negotiated in conjunction with the requirements under the National The distinction between these assets and assets with weaker Code of Conduct (for businesses with a turnover of $50 million or covenants and a shorter length of income will widen. The spread less). For larger tenants that fall outside of the Code, many landlords between prime and secondary assets is at historical lows and we remain open for discussion and the assessment will be done on its expect this to widen. The shift will largely be led by the secondary merits once financial information is provided. market with core offerings expected to retain their current pricing metrics. Similarly, with bank margins increasing by up to 75 basis The recent announcement of Government stimulus packages by points in some cases, there will be a flow on effect to prices to better both federal and state governments will provide a cushion effect reflect this. to businesses within the logistics space. The fiscal and regulatory measures are designed to keep small to medium enterprises (SMEs) Given the defensive nature of industrial and logistics property, operating and employing workers during this time. In addition, land coupled it being a more liquid asset compared to other property asset tax refunds of up to 25% for eligible landlords will assist in providing classes given the lower price point, industrial and logistics property is relief to struggling occupiers. expected to remain in favour with investors in 2020. 6
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 SYDNEY OVERVIEW Market Indicators - March 2020 Just over 750,000 sqm of new supply entered the market in 2019 and this is forecast to remain steady in 2020. Some speculative AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2) projects may be paused in the current environment. Prime Secondary L H L H Transport and logistics as well as consumer goods/FMCG occupiers $143 $164 $126 $145 have been the most active in the Sydney leasing market. Collectively, these groups account for 53% of active lease requirements in AVERAGE YIELDS Western Sydney. Prime Secondary L H L H Net face yields have remained flat over the past quarter and we 4.46% 4.92% 5.13% 5.67% expect this to remain the case over 2020. Alternatively, incentives are expected to creep upwards as landlords become more aggressive AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2) in their approach to secure a tenant. Prime Secondary L H L H The flow of capital seeking logistics assets in the Sydney market $2,924 $3,685 $2,240 $2,853 remains strong, albeit under the levels recorded in late 2019. The focus in 2020 will shift towards tenant covenant and length of WALE. DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY Risk will now be priced properly in the current environment as the 2020 ANNUAL AVERAGE flight to quality thematic plays out. The spread between prime and FORECAST (2010-2019) secondary yields is expected to widen from their current 70 basis point spread. 735,981m2 520,881m2 Sydney Industrial Yields, Prime and Secondary (%) Sydney Leasing Requirements, by Tenant Type Food / Production / Cold Store Other 10.0% 160 4% 6% Manufacturing / 9.0% 140 Engineering / Hi-Te ch Transport & 4% Logistics 8.0% 120 38% Construction / Hire / Service 7.0% 100 6% 6.0% 80 Health / 5.0% 60 Pharmaceutical 12% 4.0% 40 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-12 Mar-20 Wholesaler / Distribution / Service / Repairs Re tail & FMCG Bps Spread (RHS) Prime Secondary 15% 15% Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International 7
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 By Luke Crawford The focus for 2020 will shift towards tenant covenant and the Associate Director | Research security offered under the lease. Well located assets in core markets luke.crawford@colliers.com with a sound covenant and long WALE will continue to attract strong Overall, the performance of the Sydney industrial and logistics levels of capital from a diverse buyer pool. There are early signs market in the last six months has remained strong, however, this is already occurring with several major institutions flagging their there are some early signs emerging which show some hesitation intention to only participate on such assets in the short term. As a towards both the leasing and investment markets. 2020 started result, we expect yield metrics for these assets to remain firm as very strong for the local market with leasing and investment groups increasingly seek quality. demand remaining significant and this theme was expected to Alternatively, secondary assets are expected to be harder to price in continue over the year. The outbreak of COVID-19 towards the end changing market conditions with value largely to be determined by of the quarter has somewhat made the near-term outlook more the tenant’s ability to pay rent. Risk is now being priced properly by uncertain. Notwithstanding this, growth in e-commerce activity and investors and as a result secondary facilities and assets with weaker infrastructure investment coupled with heightened demand from covenants will require a discount and subsequently, we anticipate non-discretionary occupiers is supporting the logistics sector and yields to trend moderately upwards. demand for warehouses in strategic locations. In addition, the spread between prime and secondary yields is Following completions of 755,353 sqm in 2019, new construction expected to widen. In recent years, there was a lack of prime core activity is expected to remain strong in 2020 with just under assets brought to market and as such secondary assets were highly 750,000 sqm expected to enter the market. However, given a pursued, often without pricing in the appropriate levels of risk. moderate softening of the leasing market off the back of the current Consequently, the gap between prime and secondary narrowed to 70 economic environment, it is now likely that a number of institutions basis points, well below the historical average of 120 basis points. will place their short-term speculative developments on hold which With travel restrictions in place for offshore investors coupled with may somewhat reduce the level of forecast supply in 2020. For FIRB restrictions requiring all overseas purchases to be subject to active and aggressive groups, it presents an opportunity to deliver FIRB approval, we expect demand to largely stem from local players non-specialised assets that can be easily let. in the near term, albeit with offshore capital being deployed via Investment Market domestic managers. The rate of capital flows into the Sydney industrial and logistics market remains strong, however, several institutions are adopting a Leasing Market Macro drivers for industrial and logistics tenancy demand such as wait-and-see approach with regards to acquisitions and divestments. growth in e-commerce and infrastructure investment continue to As a result, the depth of capital is not as strong as it was at the support leasing activity across the Sydney market with take-up being end of 2019 and investors are becoming more selective in their recorded from a broad mix of industries. acquisitions. In 2019, approximately one million sqm of industrial space was While 2019 was dominated by local REITs and unlisted funds who leased across Sydney, over 75% of which stemmed from the acquired 89% of assets (by volume) over the period, the first quarter Western markets. Over the first quarter of 2020, approximately of 2020 has seen the re-emergence of private investors into the 220,000 sqm has been leased and highlights the strong start to market. Institutions remain active in the Sydney market, however, 2020 prior to COVID-19. By industry, take-up was strongest for their focus has shifted towards non specialised prime assets in core Transport and Logistics and Wholesale Trade sectors. locations (with a solid tenant profile) or opportunistic acquisitions which offer perceived value. As at Q1 2020, there was 750,090 sqm of industrial and logistics space available for lease (5,000sqm+) across Sydney, with 93% of In the 12 months to March 2020, investment volumes ($5 million these vacancies being existing warehouses. Alternatively, speculative +) for industrial and logistics assets in Sydney totalled almost $1.5 built facilities continue to record strong take-up with the bulk of billion, down 32% from the same time last year. Weaker investment facilities delivered over the past 12 months being leased prior to volumes are largely attributable to weaker activity over the first practical completion. quarter of 2020 when compared to the first quarter of 2019. While enquires and leasing demand for certain industries has Investment volumes are likely to remain weak over the first half of dropped off following COVID-19, there has also been a spike in 2020 and we are already seeing this play out with volumes over the enquiry for short term overflow space and fulfillment centres (mostly first quarter of 2020 well down on previous first quarter totals in from fast moving consumer goods retailers and their logistics recent years. So far in 2020, approximately $210 million of industrial providers). and logistics assets have traded in Sydney, compared to just over $580 million at the same time last year. The slowdown is the result of several institutions and corporates postponing divestment decisions in the near term. We note, there are several large assets on the market and if they trade would significantly boost investment volumes. 8
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 Sub-Markets rents grew by 8.0% to $199/sqm, slightly higher than secondary facilities which grew 6.9% over the same period to average $179/ West sqm (net). The continued growth in rents can also be attributed to Sydney’s West continues to perform well, accounting for the bulk of an improvement in access to and from the area off the back of major leasing activity over the past 12 months. Despite supply additions of infrastructure projects including the WestConnex. Due to significant approximately 720,000 sqm over the past year, vacancy rates across rental increases, many of the traditional industrial and logistics users the Western markets remain very tight and as a result, occupiers have continued to relocate to more affordable markets along the seeking space have had to broaden their search area to secure a M5 Motorway or in Western Sydney. Incentives for both prime and tenancy. secondary stock are currently sitting within the 5-8% range. The vacancy rate across the Western markets currently averages The investment market remains active with strong demand for 5.1% for buildings 5,000 sqm +. We note, the vacancy rate in the mixed-use and commercial development sites. Given the changing Outer West, North West and Western submarkets are tighter at nature of the surrounding area to residential, it is very likely that sub 4.0% with several leasing options in the South West being the certain suburbs in South Sydney including Alexandria will become catalyst behind the more elevated rate. more of a commercial office precinct over the next decade. Prime Enquiry levels remain healthy across Sydney’s West with industrial and logistics buildings are currently being traded at approximately 515,000 sqm in active briefs within the market, 36% of between 4.25% and 4.50%, while secondary assets are transacting which are focussed on the Outer West submarket and a further 29% at 4.75% and 5.25%. Yields in the area reflect the development are looking at the West submarket. By tenant type, 38% of this active potential of many sites with an upside to higher density uses. demand stems from transport and logistics providers and 15% from North consumer goods/retail/fast moving consumer goods. Alternatively, Overall, demand for industrial and logistics space has remained a number of other groups have paused their current expansion or generally static in the last six months within the North submarket relocation plans and subsequently we expect these occupiers will and is partly a function of a lack of available stock. Rents have take up their options or extend their current lease. recorded modest rental growth over the past year, with prime rents Average net face rents in the prime market have increased by 2.1% increasing 3.8% to $208/sqm (net), while modest outperformance over the 12 months to March 2020 and unchanged over the past was recorded in the secondary market, up 5.0% to $170/sqm over quarter to measure $128/sqm. For the secondary market, rental the same period. Incentives broadly range between 5.0% and 10.0% growth of 4.2% has been recorded over the past year (to average for prime and 6.0% to 12.0% for secondary assets. $117/sqm net), albeit with this growth occurring in 2019 with rents With very limited availability of stock, occupiers with requirements in remaining stable over the first three months of 2020. Incentive excess of 2,000 sqm continue to seek accommodation in alternative metrics for both the prime and secondary market currently ranges markets. The market is dominated by mostly SME businesses at the between 8-12%. higher end of the supply chain such as pharmaceutical, medical and Investment yields have remained stable over the past quarter and we IT companies or those with strong ties to the North Shore market. expect a divergence between prime and secondary assets will occur The only major addition to supply in the market will stem from the over the coming months while core assets with covenant strength Northern Beaches Business Park at Cromer which will provide will continue to exhibit tight cap rates. Prime assets in Sydney’s approximately 25,000sqm of industrial space. The timing of this West currently range between 4.5% and 5.0% while secondary are remains subject to securing a pre-commitment. Investment yields for higher at 5.25% to 5.75%. Land prices across the West market have prime assets in the area currently range between 4.5% to 5.0% and increased by almost 8.0% over the past year to range between $675 secondary assets range between 5.25% and 5.75%. (5ha+) and $960/sqm (
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 MELBOURNE OVERVIEW Market Indicators - March 2020 Underpinned by several significant pre-commitments in the West, leasing take-up has been well above the long term average and has AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2) stemmed largely from transport and logistics providers and retailers. Prime Secondary Investment volumes have slowed as many adopt a wait and see L H L H approach. Yields are expected to soften over the next 12 months, $105 $120 $74 $85 albeit concentrated in the secondary market as risk becomes priced in. Prime yields currently range between 5.25%-5.80% while AVERAGE YIELDS secondary yields range between 6.25% to 6.85%. Prime Secondary L H L H Recent leasing demand and enquiries are starting to shift towards defensive occupiers and those operating in the non-discretionary 5.25% 5.80% 6.20% 6.85% space. This includes cold storage providers, food and beverage retailers, e-commerce providers and transport and logistics groups. AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2) Prime Secondary The COVID-19 outbreak has the potential to revive Australia’s L H L H manufacturing capabilities and reduce our reliance on global supply chains as more goods are made locally. With Melbourne historically $1,823 $2,311 $1,091 $1,391 having strong ties to the manufacturing sector, Melbourne is well placed to capture demand from businesses in this space. DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY The prime market recorded rental growth of 1.1% YoY to March 2020 2020 ANNUAL AVERAGE FORECAST (2010-2019) while secondary rents outperformed, increasing 5.0% over the same period. Rental growth is expected to ease in 2020 and incentives are 711,996m2 384,340m2 expected to increase in selected markets. Melbourne Land Prices Vs Capital Values Melbourne Prime and Secondary Rents (sqm) Indexed to 100 in Mar-05 350 $120 $110 300 $100 250 $90 200 $80 150 $70 100 $60 50 $50 $40 0 Mar-20 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Prime Secondary Land Values (ex City Fringe) Prime Capital Values Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International 10
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 By Luke Crawford Associate Director | Research Sub-Markets luke.crawford@colliers.com City Fringe The Melbourne industrial and logistics property market has Given its proximity to the CBD and the Port of Melbourne, the City performed strongly over the past six months, with take-up being Fringe industrial market continues to attract investors, developers well above the long-term average, driven by a diverse tenant pool and occupiers alike. Well located industrial properties are increasingly including 3PL groups and retailers. For the investment market, there being redeveloped to accommodate alternative and higher order has been significant levels of capital seeking entry into the market uses further to rezoning, whilst core industrial assets remain in high and this has continued to place pressure on yield metrics. demand, particularly within the strategically located Port Melbourne However, given the outbreak of COVID-19 late in the Q1 2020 sub-market. Reflective of the tightly held nature of City Fringe site quarter, there has been a noticeable slowdown in both investment ownership, land values remain well above those in the inner ring or and occupier markets with many adopting a wait and see approach. suburban industrial areas. Outgoings have increased by around 50% However, long term the fundamentals remain sound as there is a over the past 12 months in line with increases in land tax and other $73 billion transport infrastructure pipeline in Melbourne and coupled statutory expenses. with the higher take-up of online retail and likely rebound in local Tenant demand has been strongest for 500-3,000 sqm tenancies, manufacturing post COVID-19, the outlook remains favourable. partly the result of a lack of larger sites available for lease. The Investment Market vacancy rate within the market remains tight, particularly the prime market at 3.8% (500sqm+). However, growth in net face rents has After recording $1.3 billion in investment volumes in 2019, activity been limited in the prime market over the past year largely as a result has slowed over the first quarter of 2020 with many investors, of the growth in outgoings. Prime net face rents currently average particularly institutions waiting on the sidelines over the short term. $200/sqm and vary depending on the size and composition of space Consequently, we anticipate volumes in 2020 to be well under being leased. Secondary net face rents average $110/sqm. Incentives the levels recorded in previous years with sales activity in the first broadly range between 5-10% for prime and 10-15% for secondary quarter of 2020 is at its lowest level since 2010. However, should which is the lowest across the Melbourne submarkets. shutdowns and other restrictions be scaled back in the first half of Looking ahead, a number of buildings will become available later in 2020, we anticipate that the second half of 2020 will be particularly 2020 and as a result, the total vacancy rate is expected to increase. busy as investors progress ahead with their divestment mandates. However, the bulk of these availabilities are within the secondary Given the global and local economic uncertainty, we expect there market and as a result, prime grade vacancy will remain tight and to be a flight to quality with regards to both asset type and tenant rents are expected to remain relatively stable over the next 12 covenant. Consequently, we expect there may be some softening months. of yield metrics over the next 12 months, albeit concentrated in the Within the investment market, limited transactions have occurred secondary market as risk becomes priced in. The current spread of over the past six months by virtue of the tightly held nature of the 100 basis points between prime and secondary yields in Melbourne market. The most recent notable investment sale to occur in the suggests this spread will widen in the current environment, trending precinct was 1-23 Wirraway Drive, Port Melbourne which was towards the long-term average of 153 basis points and the secondary acquired by GPT from a private investor, with a 6-year lease in place market is expected to bear the brunt of this movement. to Computershare for more than $30 million, reflecting an initial Leasing Market yield of sub-5%. This has reset pricing for prime industrial assets in Port Melbourne which now sit at 4.75%-5.25%. No change in yield Overall, tenancy demand has been significant across the Melbourne metrics has been recorded for secondary assets which remain at market, led by the West where high levels of activity has been 5.75-6.25%. recorded from transport and logistics providers as well as retailers. Leasing enquiries have dropped off as a result of COVID-19 as West businesses look to assess the impacts on their operations. However, The Melbourne West industrial and logistics market continues to we are starting to see a pick-up in demand from defensive occupiers be one of the most active markets in Australia and accounted for and those operating in the non-discretionary space and this has a large share of Melbourne’s pre-commitment activity over the included cold storage providers, food and beverage retailers, past six months. Major pre-commitments in 2020 include Uniqlo e-commerce providers and transport and logistics groups. (46,000 sqm) and Bridgestone (24,000 sqm) at Charter Hall’s Midwest Estate in Truganina while CEVA Logistics pre-committed While these occupiers are expected to account for a large share of to 37,307sqm within Frasers West Park Industrial estate, also at leasing volumes over the next 12 months, the COVID-19 outbreak Truganina. has the potential to revive Australia’s manufacturing capabilities and reduce our reliance on global supply chains as more goods are The speculative development market has also been active and made locally. With Melbourne historically having strong ties to the follows GPT committing Godfrey Hirst Carpets (14,402 sqm) and Pet manufacturing sector, Melbourne is well placed to capture demand Stock (12,088 sqm) to the stage 1 of their Gateway Logistics Hub. from businesses in this space. LOGOS also secured EFM Logistics Services Group (23,222 sqm) to their Marshall Court, Altona site and Aliro have leased half of their 45 11
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 National Drive, Truganina development to Quatius Logistics (8,500 have since announced their exit from the Australian market, however, sqm). construction of the facility continues to progress. Enquiries in the market remain at heathy levels, albeit down from the heights seen in The existing building market has been more subdued over the past the pre-COVID-19 period. six months, however, lease deals to Austpac (15,100 sqm) at 25 Briggs Drive, Derrimut and Monza Imports (5,049 sqm) at 209-213 The investment market remains tightly held with few assets trading Maidstone Street, Altona were concluded over the past quarter. over the past six months. Prime yields currently average 6.0% while secondary yields are higher at 6.9%. Despite the strong start to 2020, leasing enquiries have dropped off in recent weeks given the uncertainty of COVID-19 and subsequently South East and Outer East a number of occupiers are putting their leasing decisions on The South East and Outer East industrial and logistics market of hold. However, defensive occupiers remain active, highlighted by Melbourne recorded a strong start to 2020 with approximately Fernhurst’s recent pre-commitment to a 7,070 sqm purpose-built 79,500 sqm leased across 11 transactions (3,000 sqm+), almost cold storage facility at the Charter Hall Drystone Industrial Estate double the 10-year average. Given the strong leasing demand, the within Truganina. vacancy rate in the precinct is extremely tight at 2.2%. The prime There has been little movement in rentals over the last 12 months for market continues attract strong levels of demand with the vacancy both prime and secondary markets and this party reflects the level of rate currently sitting at 1.0% and subsequently there are a lack of supply which has entered the market. Prime net face rents currently leasing options available. The sweet spot for demand has been in average $82/sqm, while secondary net face rents are lower at $65/ the 5,000-10,000 sqm range, where nine transactions have occurred sqm. At this level, prime rents are 28% below the Melbourne average year to date. which accentuates the area’s appeal to prospective tenants and as Since the outbreak of COVID-19, new enquiries have dropped, a result, almost 340,000 sqm of leasing activity in 2019 stemmed particularly for long term lease deals. However, demand from from tenant migration from other Australian industrial and logistics non-discretionary occupiers has remained solid. More recently, markets. Tenant migration from the City Fringe (38%), North (30%) this included Vincent Cold Storage agreeing to a five-year lease and interstate markets (18%) were the dominant locations in which for a 8,655 sqm cold storage warehouse at 102-108 Bridge Road, tenants moved from in 2019. Keysborough. Transaction activity has been steady, however concentrated in the While demand for long term tenancies has waned, there has sub $10 million over the past quarter given the lack of prime core been a notable increase in short term enquires within the market, assets offered to the market. The most recent sale was Dexus’ particularly from food retailers (including supermarkets) who require acquisition of 22 Business Park Drive, Ravenhall for $9.0 million on a overflow space given the recent spike in demand. short-term sale and leaseback to AS Colour. Average yields for prime Rents have recorded modest increases over the past 12 months assets currently range between 4.75% to 5.25% while secondary with prime assets averaging $94/sqm in the South East and $103/ assets currently range from 6.5% to 7.0%. sqm in the Outer East. A more substantial increase was recorded North for the secondary markets and currently averages $76/sqm in the The North sub-market has seen continued strong tenant demand, South East and $77/sqm in the Outer East. Incentives broadly range particularly for new and prime grade stock. Reflecting this was between 10-20% across both prime and secondary grades. Mazda’s recent pre-commitment of 37,323 sqm within Frasers’ 4Ten Following a strong 2019 where approximately $600 million traded off Epping Business Park. Melbourne Airport continues to remain an the back of several large sale and leaseback transactions, investment attractive option for occupiers given the affordable economic rent and activity has slowed. A recent transaction in the precinct was 180 recent leasing demand has stemmed from Bapcor (48,000 sqm) and Browns Road, Noble Park which was acquired by a private investor Agility Logistics (30,000 sqm). from Quintessential Equity for $14.7 million. Prime yields currently Despite strong tenant demand, rents have remained largely range between 5.50%-5.75% and 6.25%-6.75% for secondary unchanged over the past year with prime net face rents currently across the market. averaging $85/sqm while secondary assets average $70/sqm (net face). Incentives remain at 15% for prime and 12% for secondary assets. The catalyst behind subdued rental growth has been the elevated vacancy rate which currently stands at 8.4% across the market. We note, the bulk of these vacancies exist at the larger end of the market (20,000sqm+) where there is just over 250,000 sqm available for lease. Leasing options for other size ranges is limited, particularly within the sub 10,000 sqm size range. Rental growth is expected to remain subdued within the market given the elevated vacancy rate and new supply additions which will enter the market. Most notably, this will include the Kaufland Distribution 385-397 Francis St, Brooklyn Centre (113,600 sqm) at MAB’s Merrifield Business Park. Kaufland Sold on behalf of QUBE. 12
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 BRISBANE OVERVIEW Market Indicators* - March 2020 Pre-commitment development activity dominates and drives leasing demand. The flight to quality remains an ongoing theme while AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2) demand for existing assets is steady, albeit lacking urgency. Prime Secondary Leasing demand and enquiries have been underpinned by transport L H L H and logistics providers while more recently there has been an $107 $114 $72 $90 uptick in demand recorded from manufacturing occupiers. The South precinct has been particularly active and reflects new supply AVERAGE YIELDS entering the market. Prime Secondary L H L H Despite the uncertain market conditions, developers continue to support development activity. In 2020, industrial completions across 5.70% 6.18% 7.00% 7.75% Brisbane are set to potentially total almost 400,000 sqm (projects under construction or already complete), moderately above the AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2) 375,000 sqm of new supply added in 2019. Prime Secondary L H L H Despite a generally tight vacancy rate across the market, rental $1,736 $2,012 $932 $1,289 growth is expected to remain subdued over the next 12 months, with isolated increases in incentives expected particularly for secondary grade assets. The patchy leasing market and new supply is the DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY catalyst behind this outlook. 2020 ANNUAL AVERAGE Recent market evidence supports a continued firm yield outlook FORECAST (2010-2019) for core assets. Secondary assets are likely to experience some 401,120m2 269,295m2 softening as leasing, covenant and asset risk becomes priced in. * Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala Brisbane Industrial Supply (sqm) Brisbane Prime and Secondary Yields (%) 450,000 11.0% 400,000 10.0% 350,000 9.0% 300,000 8.0% 250,000 7.0% 200,000 6.0% 150,000 5.0% 100,000 4.0% Mar-20 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Prime Secondary Source: Colliers International Note: 2020 - Completed and under construction projects only Source: Colliers International 13
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 By Karina Salas (21,200 sqm - Berrinba Logistics Park). Associate Director | Research karina.salas@colliers.com Although vacancy is moderate across the market, the patchy leasing market coupled with the development supply pipeline is expected to Leasing Market hamper rental growth over the medium term, with isolated increases Increasing occupier demand drives take up albeit in incentives expected particularly for secondary grade assets. The rents forecast to hold steady average prime grade net face rents across all precincts held steady Occupier demand in the Brisbane industrial and logistics market has in Q1 2020 at $111/sqm, while the average secondary grade net face remained steady over the past six months despite the uncertainties rents followed a similar trend, holding steady at $81/sqm. Incentives triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak, with increasing demand from across all precincts broadly range between 15-20% with the ATC industrial operators within the pharmaceutical and logistics sectors. region being at the lower end of this range. The flight to quality remains an ongoing theme with tenant activity focussed on the prime market as occupiers seek the operational Investment Market efficiencies derived from newer facilities. Demand continues to be The predominance of sale and leaseback skewed towards new construction with a steady stream of major transactions commitments to either D&C or speculatively developed space. Transaction volumes have risen significantly over the past year In contrast, the general leasing market is patchy with notably with approximately $1.6 billion changing hands in the 12 months less demand for existing accommodation, particularly within the to March 2020, up from $1.1 billion at the same time last year. The secondary market where a large portion of current vacancies exist. strong result over the past year stemmed from four $100 million plus The movement of tenants upgrading to higher quality premises sales which collectively accounted for 40% of investment volumes. has been facilitated by favourable incentive metrics which in some Institutions were the most active groups on the acquisition side, precincts are as high as 20%, particularly in Outer precincts like the representing 89% of sales (by volume) over the past 12 months while South and South West. corporates accounted for 36% of vendors by volume and came off the back of several large sale and leaseback transactions. Notably, During 2019, approximately 400,000 sqm of industrial and logistics sale and leaseback activity in Brisbane was headlined by the Arnotts space was leased (5,000sqm+) with 65% of this demand stemming facility in Virginia which was sold by KKR following their acquisition from the pre-commitment and speculative market. By sector, leasing of the Campbell Soup business to the Centuria Industrial REIT for demand and enquiries have been underpinned by transport and $211.8 million. logistics providers while more recently there has been an uptick in demand recorded from manufacturing occupiers. Like other markets, Across Brisbane the average prime yield currently stands at 5.94% take-up is shifting towards occupiers who provide non-discretionary and generally ranges between 5.5% to 6.5% depending on the goods, and this is highlighted by a logistic operator who has recently asset’s location. Secondary assets are priced at 7.38% on average sub-leased 10,000 sqm to support the supply of medical equipment and range between 6.75% to 8.0%, reflecting a 144 basis point to the State Government for a period of 12 months. spread to the prime market. The South precinct has been particularly active over the past six Looking ahead, investment volumes are expected to weaken as months and has represented the bulk of Brisbane’s leasing volumes institutions and corporates hold off on their divestment plans in the over the period. The increased rate of activity in the precinct partly short term. With demand from local and offshore groups waning reflects new supply entering the market with 151,000 sqm added in given the uncertainty in the market, private investors have become 2019. Notable lease deals to occur in the precinct include Lincoln increasingly active as they capitalise on a period of weaker capital Sentry, a subsidiary of Dulux, leasing 9,766 sqm at 243 Bradman depth. The strength of private investors was evidenced by the Street in Acacia Ridge. recent sale of 731 Curtin Avenue East in Pinkenba which sold to City Freeholds (Sydney based private investor) for $34.7 million while Despite the uncertain market conditions, developers continue to the residual buyer panel largely consisted of both local and interstate support development activity for projects backed with long-term investors. Reflecting a yield of 5.8%, the sale provided clarity that leases representing about 76% of the development activity completed yield metrics for well-located assets will hold up in the current in 2019. Similarly, we expect to see a deferral of speculative projects COVID-19 climate. over the short term. Supply levels in 2019 totalled circa 375,000 sqm, underpinned by the South and ATC regions which collectively Similar to the leasing market, the current economic environment is accounted for 62% of supply in 2019. expected to result in a flight to quality for well-located core assets with strong covenants. The lack of available investment opportunities Looking forward into 2020, industrial and logistics completions in recent years has seen investors move up the risk curve with across Brisbane are set to potentially total circa 400,000 sqm buyers more receptive to taking on leasing risk or less functional (projects under construction or already complete). The South and secondary assets, however, recent events are expected to result South West submarkets are expected to capture 82% of new supply in a moderate repricing of assets as risk becomes priced in. Given over the period and will primarily stem from purpose-built facilities this, a greater distinction between prime and secondary assets is including Rheinmetall (32,042 sqm - Redbank Motorway Estate), anticipated with yields for core offerings with a strong business DHL (20,567 sqm - Wembley Business Park) and CEVA Logistics profile expected to remain close to current levels. 14
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 ADELAIDE OVERVIEW Market Indicators - March 2020 Transaction activity above $5 million was strong in the last quarter of 2019, however, activity has since slowed with just one major sale being recorded in the first quarter of 2020. AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2) Prime Secondary There is still some activity in the market below $5 million which is L H L H being driven by private investors and owner occupiers. $88 $121 $56 $75 Institutional capital was a key feature of the Adelaide industrial market AVERAGE YIELDS accounting for 72% of total sales volumes during 2019, however this Prime Secondary may fall in 2020 with a limited supply of institutional grade assets being L H L H offered. The second half of 2020 could see some institutional and 6.40% 7.75% 8.00% 9.70% private owners divesting non-core assets. New Supply reached decade highs with circa 206,000 sqm of space AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2) completed during 2019 and 298,000 sqm expected to be completed Prime Secondary in 2020. Pre- commitment activity has driven the new supply with L H L H very limited speculative development. Institutional developers have $1,088 $1,486 $656 $1,045 become more prominent with most of these new developments being constructed by large institutional developers. DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY 2020 ANNUAL AVERAGE FORECAST (2010-2019) 298,853m2 84,072m2 Adelaide Industrial Supply (sqm) Prime Net Face YoY Rental Growth 350,000 20.0% 15.0% 300,000 10.0% 250,000 5.0% 200,000 0.0% 150,000 -5.0% -10.0% 100,000 -15.0% 50,000 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-11 Mar-20 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-19 Sep-11 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Inner North West Outer South Outer North Average Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International 15
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 By Kate Gray distancing measures with many retailers seeing significantly higher Director | Research volumes of online sales across several categories. We have also kate.gray@colliers.com seen interesting partnerships with Coles and Woolworths teaming Market Overview with Australia Post to deliver basic boxes to the vulnerable in the community. This also expands the delivery network of both major The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 and the social distance supermarkets. Going forward, the structural shift towards online measures which have been put in place to contain the spread created retail is expected to be permanent as consumers increasingly opt a great deal of uncertainty in the Adelaide industrial and logistics to buy their goods online. For the Adelaide industrial and logistics market. However, sentiment is beginning to improve for both the local market, this will result in a greater demand for well-located occupier and investment market with enquiries reverting towards the warehouse space. levels recorded pre COVID-19. Greater certainty following the release New supply in 2020 is forecast to reach over 204,000 sqm with of the Code of Conduct and subsequent ‘flattening of the curve’ have over 197,500 sqm completed in 2019. This is the highest level of been the catalysts behind the improved sentiment within the market new industrial supply since 2007. Major projects to be added to the in recent weeks. Adelaide market include distribution centres to Metcash at Gepps The Code of Conduct provides the framework for negotiation of rent Cross, Sigma Healthcare and Huhtamaki at Pooraka, OI Glass at West relief for tenants. To be covered by the code, the business needs Croydon and the expansion of the Woolworths distribution centre at an annual turnover of below $50 million and be qualified for the Gepps Cross. JobKeeper Program (see sales fall by more than 30%). Our early observations are that the industrial and logistics sector is better Market Outlook placed than the retail sector. The outlook for the Adelaide industrial market remains positive. Infrastructure investment remains key for growth in the Adelaide The Adelaide industrial market which has a traditionally strong industrial and logistics market, with the most recent state budget manufacturing base is expected to benefit post COVID-19, with committing A$5.4 billion to the final stages of the North-South several key industries expected to see more onshore manufacturing. Corridor. The state government stimulus has set aside $350 million Health equipment such as X-ray, ventilators, drug production, for ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure projects, which are likely to support and personal protective equipment is likely to see more onshore the industrial sector in the medium term. The A$1.2 billion of defence manufacturing. With Adelaide being the HQ for defence and space infrastructure construction continues at Osborne and is nearing investment in Australia we expect that these industries will continue completion, which will support the frigates and submarine projects to grow post the pandemic. due to commence in 2020 and 2023 respectively. In the mining With the structural shift to online retail expected to be permanent, sector, BHP announced that they are hiring 1,500 staff nationally logistics will be the big winner as retailers invest heavily in their with many in operational and skilled trade roles. We have also seen online platforms and supply chain networks. The growth in online several large manufacturers pivot production to new product lines shopping is expected to increase at a greater rate than pre COVID-19 with Bickfords producing hand sanitizer and Detmold Packaging and this will continue to drive the e-commerce sector both locally producing medical personal protective equipment including surgical and globally. Logistics providers are set to benefit with increased masks. consumer deliveries as a result. Manufacturing which has seen a decline over the last decade due Although we expect rental growth to plateau in the short term, a to cheaper offshore alternatives are now coming into focus as a key combination of increased demand for modern and efficient logistics in managing crisis situations and building onshore capabilities. The accommodation and a limited supply pipeline will ensure steady COVID 19 pandemic is likely to lead to a rethink of supply chains and rental growth over the medium to long term within the Adelaide an existing and historic reliance on significant offshore production for market. Industries which were traditionally view as being in decline some industries. Adelaide with a strong manufacturing base is well are expected to have a resurgence which places Adelaide as a key positioned to capitalize from this change. beneficiary of this growth. The short term impacts of COVID-19 on Our recent industrial sentiment survey across Australia shows that manufacturing may see longer term benefits for South Australia with most landlords are focused on the tenant solvency and pricing/ new technology allowing for more onshore manufacturing post the valuation benchmarks as the biggest challenges over the next 12 pandemic. months. We also see industrial and logistics assets being the most preferred asset class for investors over the next 12 months. Sales activity has slowed in the first quarter with the sale of the Thebarton Square campus being the largest sale recorded. Many of the listed funds which have industrial portfolios have performed better than others with a higher exposure to office and retail. These investments have held up in the current market, with tenants less likely to be significantly affected by the social distance restrictions. Logistics have been a big winner from COVID-19 and social Thebarton Square, Thebarton Sold for $17.25m on behalf of Australasian Property Developments Pty Ltd. 16
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020 PERTH OVERVIEW Market Indicators - March 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased uncertainty and has further impacted both consumer and business confidence AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2) in WA. Some tenants impacted by the government mandated Prime Secondary pandemic responses and global trading conditions have sought rent relief. However, a co-ordinated global fiscal and monetary stimulus L H L H response to this crisis could have beneficial outcomes for the states $73 $86 $55 $70 resources sector and the investment outlook. AVERAGE YIELDS It is still too early to see any distinct build-up of industrial space Prime Secondary vacancy, however, a vacancy increase is looking like a high L H L H probability, given the significant business disruptions that has taken 6.25% 7.49% 7.24% 8.43% place to date. But this isn’t expected to be widespread or on a large scale. Though any increase will see a flight to quality that will impact AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2) secondary grade stock in the future, unless a significant positive Prime Secondary economic turnaround emerges. L H L H There has been no reportable movement in market yields, but $1,016 $1,251 $673 $936 considering the interest rate outlook, we expect Prime yields to remain stable during 2020. The low cost of funds and lack of more favourable DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY yield alternatives will likely continue to see investor interest in the higher yielding Perth market. 2020 ANNUAL AVERAGE FORECAST (2010-2019) The current land demand outlook is subdued. Vacant land pricing will 242,314m2 likely remain stable with some negative adjustment undertones. 168,437m2 New supply outlook is currently forecasted to also be subdued. After 2020, the market is likely to experience new record low building completions during the following two year. Perth Industrial Supply (sqm) Perth Prime and Secondary Yields (%) 400,000 9.5% 350,000 9.0% 8.5% 300,000 8.0% 250,000 7.5% 200,000 7.0% 6.5% 150,000 6.0% 100,000 5.5% Mar-14 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-11 Mar-20 50,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Prime Secondary Source: Colliers International Source: Colliers International 17
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