INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International

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INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
Research &
Forecast Report

                  Accelerating success.

INDUSTRIAL
First Half 2020
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
Accelerating success.

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INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
CONTENTS

     Snapshot | Industrial & Logistics                     4

     National Overview                                     5

     Sydney                                                7

     Melbourne                                            10

     Brisbane                                             13

     Adelaide                                             15

     Perth                                                17

     Newcastle                                            19

     Our Expertise                                        21

                                         Accelerating success.
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS
SNAPSHOT
                                                                                                               Brisbane*
                                                                                                            Net Face                        Capital       Incentive         Land
                                                                                                                             Yield
                                                                                                              Rent                          Value           Level           Value
                                                                                                             $/sqm             %            $/sqm             %            $/sqm

                                                                                          H1 2020 (Q1)        $111           5.94%          $1,874          16.2%           $321

                                                                                          H2 2019 (Q3)         $111          5.94%          $1,874          16.2%           $321

                                                                                                               Sydney
                                                                                                            Net Face                        Capital       Incentive         Land
                                                                                                                             Yield
                                                                                                              Rent                          Value           Level           Value
                                                                                                             $/sqm             %            $/sqm             %            $/sqm

                                                                                          H1 2020 (Q1)        $153           4.70%          $3,292          9.3%           $1,057

                                                                                          H2 2019 (Q3)        $150           4.75%          $3,162          9.2%            $911

                  Adelaide                                                                                     Melbourne
                Net Face                           Capital      Incentive         Land                      Net Face                        Capital       Incentive         Land
                                     Yield                                                                                   Yield
                  Rent                             Value          Level           Value                       Rent                          Value           Level           Value
                 $/sqm                %            $/sqm            %             $/sqm                      $/sqm             %            $/sqm             %            $/sqm

H1 2020 (Q1)     $102               7.44%          $1,410         11.6%           $207    H1 2020 (Q1)        $113           5.53%          $2,052          14.3%           $407

H2 2019 (Q3)      $102              7.56%          $1,385         11.3%           $205    H2 2019 (Q3)         $111          5.73%          $1,975          14.3%           $393

                  Perth                                                                   * Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala

                Net Face                           Capital      Incentive         Land
                                     Yield
                  Rent                             Value          Level           Value
                 $/sqm                %            $/sqm            %             $/sqm

H1 2020 (Q1)      $79               6.87%          $1,153         14.5%           $440

H2 2019 (Q3)      $79               6.91%          $1,146         17.5%           $441

Transport Infrastructure Projects, Billions (AUD)                                         Share of Industrial Supply to be Delivered 2020 to 2023
    $90
    $80
                                                                                                                                   4%
    $70                                                                                                                    8%
    $60
    $50
    $40                                                                                                          20%                                  41%
    $30
    $20
    $10
     $0
          New South     Victoria      Queensland     South       Western     Multiple
                                                                                                                             27%
            Wales                                   Australia    Australia States/Other

               Committed           Possible   Pending        Under construction
                                                                                                    Sydney        Melbourne          Brisbane     Adelaide        Perth
Source: Deloitte Access Economics
                                                                                          Source: Colliers International

4
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

NATIONAL                                                                    COVID-19 to drive e-commerce structural shift
                                                                            The value of e-commerce has increased exponentially as a result of

OVERVIEW                                                                    COVID-19 and the take-up of online retail will gain market share on
                                                                            brick-and-mortar retail sales as consumers are forced to buy online.
                                                                            COVID-19 is expected to lead to a significant structural and cultural
                                                                            shift in the way consumers buy their goods, many of which have not
By Luke Crawford
Associate Director | Research                                               shopped via online platforms before. Long term, these buying habits
luke.crawford@colliers.com                                                  are expected to be permanent as consumers become accustomed
                                                                            to the simplicity of online shopping and as a result COVID-19 will
The outbreak of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on financial          accelerate the growth of online retail.
markets globally. As a result, global economic growth will contract
over the short term and many are now starting to draw comparisons           Highlighting the persistent demand for online retail goods due to
with the GFC in 2008 with regards to both occupier and investment           global lockdown restrictions, Amazon in the US have hired 100,000
markets. The reality is, it remains too early to draw any major             employees to cater towards its spike in demand for e-commerce
conclusions and comparisons to the GFC as the COVID-19 situation            goods. In Australia, we have seen retailers shift some of their staff to
is still unfolding. However, recent data highlights that the ‘curve is      online fulfilment as they try to keep up with demand while there have
flattening’ which remains positive for the Australian economy over          also been cases of retailers using their existing stores as smaller
the short term when compared to other countries such as the US              fulfilment centres or ‘dark stores’. Notably, this includes Kmart and
and UK.                                                                     Accent group which owns Athlete’s Foot, Platypus and Hype DC.

Unlike the GFC where rents contracted between 9% and 25% in the             Despite recent growth, the proportion of online retail sales in
prime market and 15% and 25% in the secondary market depending              Australia remains relatively small at 6.6%, particularly when
on location and yields blow out to 8.5% for prime and 9.5% for              compared to other global markets such as the US and UK where it
secondary along the East Coast, industrial and logistics property           is as high as 22%. However, given the abovementioned structural
is well placed to ride out the short-term uncertainty. This outlook         shift, we are forecasting that the share of online retail in Australia
is underpinned by the recent growth in demand for transport and             will more than double over the next few years. For the industrial and
logistics and its key role to play in keeping the basic day to day          logistics market, this will result in heighted demand for both larger
necessities of Australians in supply. Notwithstanding this, there are       distribution centres and smaller last mile centres close to densely
going to be tenant casualties who are unable to trade through this          populated areas.
period and there are going to be others who experience a significant
                                                                            Online Retail Sales as a % of Total Retail Sales
pick-up in business revenue. Tenant covenants will be increasingly
                                                                             20%
scrutinised going forward and length of WALE will never be more
important as the flight to quality thematic plays out.                       18%

                                                                             16%
While certain locations may see a fall in rents and a rise in incentives,
we do not expect it to be to the same extent as we saw in the GFC.           14%

Likewise, we do not expect yields to blow out by 150 basis points as         12%
they did in the GFC. While there may be some softening of yields for
                                                                             10%
secondary assets as risk becomes priced in, core assets with strong
                                                                              8%
businesses within will remain highly sought after by both domestic
and global capital and yields will remain firm.                               6%

The fundamentals for industrial and logistics property remain sound           4%

over the long term and as a result the sector is expected to be               2%
less impacted than others through this period. With the exception             0%
of population growth which will take a hit in the short term as
                                                                                   Jun-14

                                                                                                     Jun-15

                                                                                                                       Jun-16

                                                                                                                                         Jun-17

                                                                                                                                                           Jun-18

                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-19
                                                                                            Dec-14

                                                                                                              Dec-15

                                                                                                                                Dec-16

                                                                                                                                                  Dec-17

                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-18

                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-19
                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Dec-22

net overseas migration drops significantly off the back of border
closures, the other key drivers of infrastructure investment and                                                 Historical                                Base Case                             High Case
growth in e-commerce will continue to remain strong in the current
                                                                            Source: ABS, Colliers International
environment.

5
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

Occupier Market                                                            On the supply side, construction levels are expected to wane as
                                                                           developers place their short-term developments on hold. Unlike the
At the beginning of the year we were expecting 2020 to be a
                                                                           GFC where vacancies were much higher than they are now and
record year in terms of demand. In 2019, approximately 3.8 million
                                                                           supply was above current levels, a supply and demand mismatch is
sqm of industrial and logistics space was leased (1,000sqm+),
                                                                           expected to remain in key markets. Broadly speaking, net face rents
representing the second highest annual total on record. While
                                                                           are expected to remain at current levels with owners instead opting
enquiry levels remain healthy in most markets, demand has shifted
                                                                           to drive incentives to secure tenants.
towards defensive occupiers including food and beverage retailers,
e-commerce groups (including fast moving consumer goods),                  Once coronavirus is contained and the impacts to businesses over
transport and logistics providers, data centres and cold storage           the medium term are better understood, we expect a significant pick-
occupiers. Other businesses who were previously in the market for          up in leasing activity as businesses begin to regroup and move ahead
new or expansionary space have since placed these decisions on             with previous capital expenditure plans.
hold as they determine the impacts of COVID-19 on their business.          Investment Market
While long term requirements (10+ years) are still coming                  Investment volumes have weakened over the first quarter of 2020,
through, there has been a notable spike in enquiry for short term          with investment activity in the quarter being at its lowest level since
overflow space and fulfillment centres. Highlighting this was the          2010. The weaker activity is the result of several institutions and
announcement in late March that Coles will open three ‘pop-up’             corporates holding off on their divestment mandates as they wait to
distribution centres in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland           see the impact on headline investment metrics such as cap rates,
to cater towards the rapid growth in food and grocery purchases.           IRRs and value per square metre rates.
Consumers are increasingly shifting their spending habits to non-
discretionary goods and as a result expenditure at supermarkets            Notwithstanding this, there remains substantial levels of capital
is up 3.6% over the past year, while takeaway services and                 seeking to expand within the Australian logistics sector. More
pharmaceutical goods are up even higher at 5.1% and 6.6%                   recently, private investors have become more active, particularly
respectively in the year to February 2020, compared to 1.8% for all        along the East Coast capital cities. Institutions remain focussed on
retail goods.                                                              increasing their assets under management, however, their attention
                                                                           has shifted towards prime assets in core locations with sound
Another positive that may emerge from the pandemic outbreak will           covenants and long WALEs.
be growth in the local manufacturing sector as certain products and
goods are made locally to ensure future availability of these essential    Up until recently, risk was often overlooked as groups aggressively
products. The early signs of this are starting to emerge in food and       expanded their presence in the market and as a result, there was
pharmaceutical manufacturing industries and will assist the logistics      little (if any) discount applied to weaker assets that didn’t have the
sector through both increased domestic and offshore consumption.           covenant or length of lease of prime core offerings. However, recent
                                                                           events have forced groups to reassess risk and chase security
On the other hand, there are industrial and logistics businesses who       and subsequently, the flight to quality will persist as the distinction
are struggling in the current environment and will continue to do so       and pricing between grades, locations and covenants comes to the
over the foreseeable future. As a result, a large number of occupiers      forefront.
have approached their landlords for rental relief, particularly at the
smaller end of the market where businesses don’t have the same             What this ultimately means for the industrial and logistics market
economies of scale as larger occupiers. While these requests need          is that prime assets (both in regard to location and quality of the
to be assessed on a case by case basis, it is important that they are      building) with a strong covenant and long lease will be highly sought.
negotiated in conjunction with the requirements under the National         The distinction between these assets and assets with weaker
Code of Conduct (for businesses with a turnover of $50 million or          covenants and a shorter length of income will widen. The spread
less). For larger tenants that fall outside of the Code, many landlords    between prime and secondary assets is at historical lows and we
remain open for discussion and the assessment will be done on its          expect this to widen. The shift will largely be led by the secondary
merits once financial information is provided.                             market with core offerings expected to retain their current pricing
                                                                           metrics. Similarly, with bank margins increasing by up to 75 basis
The recent announcement of Government stimulus packages by                 points in some cases, there will be a flow on effect to prices to better
both federal and state governments will provide a cushion effect           reflect this.
to businesses within the logistics space. The fiscal and regulatory
measures are designed to keep small to medium enterprises (SMEs)           Given the defensive nature of industrial and logistics property,
operating and employing workers during this time. In addition, land        coupled it being a more liquid asset compared to other property asset
tax refunds of up to 25% for eligible landlords will assist in providing   classes given the lower price point, industrial and logistics property is
relief to struggling occupiers.                                            expected to remain in favour with investors in 2020.

6
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

SYDNEY
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - March 2020                                                                                                                            Just over 750,000 sqm of new supply entered the market in 2019
                                                                                                                                                          and this is forecast to remain steady in 2020. Some speculative
                          AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                                                                                   projects may be paused in the current environment.
                          Prime                Secondary
                          L                                      H                                       L                                 H
                                                                                                                                                          Transport and logistics as well as consumer goods/FMCG occupiers
                      $143                               $164                                         $126                             $145
                                                                                                                                                          have been the most active in the Sydney leasing market. Collectively,
                                                                                                                                                          these groups account for 53% of active lease requirements in
                          AVERAGE YIELDS                                                                                                                  Western Sydney.
                          Prime                                                                        Secondary
                          L                                      H                                       L                                 H
                                                                                                                                                          Net face yields have remained flat over the past quarter and we
                    4.46%                               4.92%                                         5.13%                          5.67%                expect this to remain the case over 2020. Alternatively, incentives
                                                                                                                                                          are expected to creep upwards as landlords become more aggressive
                          AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)                                                                                                   in their approach to secure a tenant.
                          Prime                 Secondary
                          L                                      H                                       L                                 H              The flow of capital seeking logistics assets in the Sydney market
                   $2,924                               $3,685                                        $2,240                         $2,853               remains strong, albeit under the levels recorded in late 2019. The
                                                                                                                                                          focus in 2020 will shift towards tenant covenant and length of WALE.

                                               DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY
                                                                                                                                                          Risk will now be priced properly in the current environment as the
                          2020                                                               ANNUAL AVERAGE                                               flight to quality thematic plays out. The spread between prime and
                          FORECAST                                                           (2010-2019)                                                  secondary yields is expected to widen from their current 70 basis
                                                                                                                                                          point spread.
                          735,981m2                                                            520,881m2

Sydney Industrial Yields, Prime and Secondary (%)                                                                                                         Sydney Leasing Requirements, by Tenant Type
                                                                                                                                                                               Food / Production / Cold Store   Other
10.0%                                                                                                                                               160
                                                                                                                                                                                           4%                    6%
                                                                                                                                                              Manufacturing /
 9.0%                                                                                                                                               140
                                                                                                                                                            Engineering / Hi-Te ch                                             Transport &
                                                                                                                                                                    4%                                                          Logistics
 8.0%                                                                                                                                               120                                                                           38%

                                                                                                                                                          Construction / Hire / Service
 7.0%                                                                                                                                               100
                                                                                                                                                                      6%

 6.0%                                                                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                                                      Health /
 5.0%                                                                                                                                               60             Pharmaceutical
                                                                                                                                                                       12%

 4.0%                                                                                                                                               40
        Mar-06

                 Mar-07

                           Mar-08

                                    Mar-09

                                               Mar-10

                                                        Mar-11

                                                                          Mar-13

                                                                                    Mar-14

                                                                                             Mar-15

                                                                                                       Mar-16

                                                                                                                Mar-17

                                                                                                                         Mar-18

                                                                                                                                  Mar-19
                                                                 Mar-12

                                                                                                                                           Mar-20

                                                                                                                                                                 Wholesaler / Distribution /
                                                                                                                                                                    Service / Repairs                             Re tail & FMCG
                                             Bps Spread (RHS)                      Prime               Secondary                                                           15%                                          15%

Source: Colliers International                                                                                                                            Source: Colliers International

7
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

By Luke Crawford                                                         The focus for 2020 will shift towards tenant covenant and the
Associate Director | Research                                            security offered under the lease. Well located assets in core markets
luke.crawford@colliers.com
                                                                         with a sound covenant and long WALE will continue to attract strong
Overall, the performance of the Sydney industrial and logistics          levels of capital from a diverse buyer pool. There are early signs
market in the last six months has remained strong, however,              this is already occurring with several major institutions flagging their
there are some early signs emerging which show some hesitation           intention to only participate on such assets in the short term. As a
towards both the leasing and investment markets. 2020 started            result, we expect yield metrics for these assets to remain firm as
very strong for the local market with leasing and investment             groups increasingly seek quality.
demand remaining significant and this theme was expected to              Alternatively, secondary assets are expected to be harder to price in
continue over the year. The outbreak of COVID-19 towards the end         changing market conditions with value largely to be determined by
of the quarter has somewhat made the near-term outlook more              the tenant’s ability to pay rent. Risk is now being priced properly by
uncertain. Notwithstanding this, growth in e-commerce activity and       investors and as a result secondary facilities and assets with weaker
infrastructure investment coupled with heightened demand from            covenants will require a discount and subsequently, we anticipate
non-discretionary occupiers is supporting the logistics sector and       yields to trend moderately upwards.
demand for warehouses in strategic locations.
                                                                         In addition, the spread between prime and secondary yields is
Following completions of 755,353 sqm in 2019, new construction           expected to widen. In recent years, there was a lack of prime core
activity is expected to remain strong in 2020 with just under            assets brought to market and as such secondary assets were highly
750,000 sqm expected to enter the market. However, given a               pursued, often without pricing in the appropriate levels of risk.
moderate softening of the leasing market off the back of the current     Consequently, the gap between prime and secondary narrowed to 70
economic environment, it is now likely that a number of institutions     basis points, well below the historical average of 120 basis points.
will place their short-term speculative developments on hold which
                                                                         With travel restrictions in place for offshore investors coupled with
may somewhat reduce the level of forecast supply in 2020. For
                                                                         FIRB restrictions requiring all overseas purchases to be subject to
active and aggressive groups, it presents an opportunity to deliver
                                                                         FIRB approval, we expect demand to largely stem from local players
non-specialised assets that can be easily let.
                                                                         in the near term, albeit with offshore capital being deployed via

Investment Market                                                        domestic managers.

The rate of capital flows into the Sydney industrial and logistics
market remains strong, however, several institutions are adopting a
                                                                         Leasing Market
                                                                         Macro drivers for industrial and logistics tenancy demand such as
wait-and-see approach with regards to acquisitions and divestments.
                                                                         growth in e-commerce and infrastructure investment continue to
As a result, the depth of capital is not as strong as it was at the
                                                                         support leasing activity across the Sydney market with take-up being
end of 2019 and investors are becoming more selective in their
                                                                         recorded from a broad mix of industries.
acquisitions.
                                                                         In 2019, approximately one million sqm of industrial space was
While 2019 was dominated by local REITs and unlisted funds who
                                                                         leased across Sydney, over 75% of which stemmed from the
acquired 89% of assets (by volume) over the period, the first quarter
                                                                         Western markets. Over the first quarter of 2020, approximately
of 2020 has seen the re-emergence of private investors into the
                                                                         220,000 sqm has been leased and highlights the strong start to
market. Institutions remain active in the Sydney market, however,
                                                                         2020 prior to COVID-19. By industry, take-up was strongest for
their focus has shifted towards non specialised prime assets in core
                                                                         Transport and Logistics and Wholesale Trade sectors.
locations (with a solid tenant profile) or opportunistic acquisitions
which offer perceived value.                                             As at Q1 2020, there was 750,090 sqm of industrial and logistics
                                                                         space available for lease (5,000sqm+) across Sydney, with 93% of
In the 12 months to March 2020, investment volumes ($5 million
                                                                         these vacancies being existing warehouses. Alternatively, speculative
+) for industrial and logistics assets in Sydney totalled almost $1.5
                                                                         built facilities continue to record strong take-up with the bulk of
billion, down 32% from the same time last year. Weaker investment
                                                                         facilities delivered over the past 12 months being leased prior to
volumes are largely attributable to weaker activity over the first
                                                                         practical completion.
quarter of 2020 when compared to the first quarter of 2019.
                                                                         While enquires and leasing demand for certain industries has
Investment volumes are likely to remain weak over the first half of
                                                                         dropped off following COVID-19, there has also been a spike in
2020 and we are already seeing this play out with volumes over the
                                                                         enquiry for short term overflow space and fulfillment centres (mostly
first quarter of 2020 well down on previous first quarter totals in
                                                                         from fast moving consumer goods retailers and their logistics
recent years. So far in 2020, approximately $210 million of industrial
                                                                         providers).
and logistics assets have traded in Sydney, compared to just over
$580 million at the same time last year. The slowdown is the
result of several institutions and corporates postponing divestment
decisions in the near term. We note, there are several large assets
on the market and if they trade would significantly boost investment
volumes.

8
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

Sub-Markets                                                              rents grew by 8.0% to $199/sqm, slightly higher than secondary
                                                                         facilities which grew 6.9% over the same period to average $179/
West                                                                     sqm (net). The continued growth in rents can also be attributed to
Sydney’s West continues to perform well, accounting for the bulk of      an improvement in access to and from the area off the back of major
leasing activity over the past 12 months. Despite supply additions of    infrastructure projects including the WestConnex. Due to significant
approximately 720,000 sqm over the past year, vacancy rates across       rental increases, many of the traditional industrial and logistics users
the Western markets remain very tight and as a result, occupiers         have continued to relocate to more affordable markets along the
seeking space have had to broaden their search area to secure a          M5 Motorway or in Western Sydney. Incentives for both prime and
tenancy.                                                                 secondary stock are currently sitting within the 5-8% range.
The vacancy rate across the Western markets currently averages           The investment market remains active with strong demand for
5.1% for buildings 5,000 sqm +. We note, the vacancy rate in the         mixed-use and commercial development sites. Given the changing
Outer West, North West and Western submarkets are tighter at             nature of the surrounding area to residential, it is very likely that
sub 4.0% with several leasing options in the South West being the        certain suburbs in South Sydney including Alexandria will become
catalyst behind the more elevated rate.                                  more of a commercial office precinct over the next decade. Prime
Enquiry levels remain healthy across Sydney’s West with                  industrial and logistics buildings are currently being traded at
approximately 515,000 sqm in active briefs within the market, 36% of     between 4.25% and 4.50%, while secondary assets are transacting
which are focussed on the Outer West submarket and a further 29%         at 4.75% and 5.25%. Yields in the area reflect the development
are looking at the West submarket. By tenant type, 38% of this active    potential of many sites with an upside to higher density uses.
demand stems from transport and logistics providers and 15% from         North
consumer goods/retail/fast moving consumer goods. Alternatively,         Overall, demand for industrial and logistics space has remained
a number of other groups have paused their current expansion or          generally static in the last six months within the North submarket
relocation plans and subsequently we expect these occupiers will         and is partly a function of a lack of available stock. Rents have
take up their options or extend their current lease.                     recorded modest rental growth over the past year, with prime rents
Average net face rents in the prime market have increased by 2.1%        increasing 3.8% to $208/sqm (net), while modest outperformance
over the 12 months to March 2020 and unchanged over the past             was recorded in the secondary market, up 5.0% to $170/sqm over
quarter to measure $128/sqm. For the secondary market, rental            the same period. Incentives broadly range between 5.0% and 10.0%
growth of 4.2% has been recorded over the past year (to average          for prime and 6.0% to 12.0% for secondary assets.
$117/sqm net), albeit with this growth occurring in 2019 with rents      With very limited availability of stock, occupiers with requirements in
remaining stable over the first three months of 2020. Incentive          excess of 2,000 sqm continue to seek accommodation in alternative
metrics for both the prime and secondary market currently ranges         markets. The market is dominated by mostly SME businesses at the
between 8-12%.                                                           higher end of the supply chain such as pharmaceutical, medical and
Investment yields have remained stable over the past quarter and we      IT companies or those with strong ties to the North Shore market.
expect a divergence between prime and secondary assets will occur        The only major addition to supply in the market will stem from the
over the coming months while core assets with covenant strength          Northern Beaches Business Park at Cromer which will provide
will continue to exhibit tight cap rates. Prime assets in Sydney’s       approximately 25,000sqm of industrial space. The timing of this
West currently range between 4.5% and 5.0% while secondary are           remains subject to securing a pre-commitment. Investment yields for
higher at 5.25% to 5.75%. Land prices across the West market have        prime assets in the area currently range between 4.5% to 5.0% and
increased by almost 8.0% over the past year to range between $675        secondary assets range between 5.25% and 5.75%.
(5ha+) and $960/sqm (
INDUSTRIAL First Half 2020 - Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

MELBOURNE
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - March 2020                                                                                                                            Underpinned by several significant pre-commitments in the West,
                                                                                                                                                          leasing take-up has been well above the long term average and has
                           AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                                                                                  stemmed largely from transport and logistics providers and retailers.
                           Prime                Secondary
                                                                                                                                                          Investment volumes have slowed as many adopt a wait and see
                            L                                   H                                       L                                H
                                                                                                                                                          approach. Yields are expected to soften over the next 12 months,
                       $105                              $120                                        $74                                $85
                                                                                                                                                          albeit concentrated in the secondary market as risk becomes priced
                                                                                                                                                          in. Prime yields currently range between 5.25%-5.80% while
                           AVERAGE YIELDS                                                                                                                 secondary yields range between 6.25% to 6.85%.
                           Prime                                                                     Secondary
                            L                                   H                                       L                                H                Recent leasing demand and enquiries are starting to shift towards
                                                                                                                                                          defensive occupiers and those operating in the non-discretionary
                     5.25%                              5.80%                                       6.20%                          6.85%
                                                                                                                                                          space. This includes cold storage providers, food and beverage
                                                                                                                                                          retailers, e-commerce providers and transport and logistics groups.
                           AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)
                           Prime                 Secondary                                                                                                The COVID-19 outbreak has the potential to revive Australia’s
                            L                                   H                                       L                                H                manufacturing capabilities and reduce our reliance on global supply
                                                                                                                                                          chains as more goods are made locally. With Melbourne historically
                    $1,823                             $2,311                                       $1,091                         $1,391
                                                                                                                                                          having strong ties to the manufacturing sector, Melbourne is well
                                                                                                                                                          placed to capture demand from businesses in this space.
                                              DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY

                                                                                                                                                          The prime market recorded rental growth of 1.1% YoY to March 2020
                           2020                                                            ANNUAL AVERAGE
                           FORECAST                                                        (2010-2019)                                                    while secondary rents outperformed, increasing 5.0% over the same
                                                                                                                                                          period. Rental growth is expected to ease in 2020 and incentives are
                            711,996m2                                                         384,340m2                                                   expected to increase in selected markets.

Melbourne Land Prices Vs Capital Values                                                                                                                   Melbourne Prime and Secondary Rents (sqm)
            Indexed to 100 in Mar-05
350                                                                                                                                                       $120
                                                                                                                                                           $110
300
                                                                                                                                                          $100
250
                                                                                                                                                           $90
200                                                                                                                                                        $80
 150                                                                                                                                                       $70
 100                                                                                                                                                       $60
 50                                                                                                                                                        $50
                                                                                                                                                           $40
     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-20
                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-11

                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-12

                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mar-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-19
                                                                                                                                                 Mar-20
         Mar-05
                  Mar-06
                            Mar-07
                                     Mar-08
                                              Mar-09
                                                       Mar-10
                                                                Mar-11
                                                                         Mar-12
                                                                                  Mar-13
                                                                                           Mar-14
                                                                                                    Mar-15
                                                                                                             Mar-16
                                                                                                                      Mar-17
                                                                                                                               Mar-18
                                                                                                                                        Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Prime            Secondary
                           Land Values (ex City Fringe)                                         Prime Capital Values
Source: Colliers International                                                                                                                            Source: Colliers International

10
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

By Luke Crawford
Associate Director | Research                                             Sub-Markets
luke.crawford@colliers.com
                                                                          City Fringe
The Melbourne industrial and logistics property market has
                                                                          Given its proximity to the CBD and the Port of Melbourne, the City
performed strongly over the past six months, with take-up being
                                                                          Fringe industrial market continues to attract investors, developers
well above the long-term average, driven by a diverse tenant pool
                                                                          and occupiers alike. Well located industrial properties are increasingly
including 3PL groups and retailers. For the investment market, there
                                                                          being redeveloped to accommodate alternative and higher order
has been significant levels of capital seeking entry into the market
                                                                          uses further to rezoning, whilst core industrial assets remain in high
and this has continued to place pressure on yield metrics.
                                                                          demand, particularly within the strategically located Port Melbourne
However, given the outbreak of COVID-19 late in the Q1 2020               sub-market. Reflective of the tightly held nature of City Fringe site
quarter, there has been a noticeable slowdown in both investment          ownership, land values remain well above those in the inner ring or
and occupier markets with many adopting a wait and see approach.          suburban industrial areas. Outgoings have increased by around 50%
However, long term the fundamentals remain sound as there is a            over the past 12 months in line with increases in land tax and other
$73 billion transport infrastructure pipeline in Melbourne and coupled    statutory expenses.
with the higher take-up of online retail and likely rebound in local
                                                                          Tenant demand has been strongest for 500-3,000 sqm tenancies,
manufacturing post COVID-19, the outlook remains favourable.
                                                                          partly the result of a lack of larger sites available for lease. The

Investment Market                                                         vacancy rate within the market remains tight, particularly the prime
                                                                          market at 3.8% (500sqm+). However, growth in net face rents has
After recording $1.3 billion in investment volumes in 2019, activity      been limited in the prime market over the past year largely as a result
has slowed over the first quarter of 2020 with many investors,            of the growth in outgoings. Prime net face rents currently average
particularly institutions waiting on the sidelines over the short term.   $200/sqm and vary depending on the size and composition of space
Consequently, we anticipate volumes in 2020 to be well under              being leased. Secondary net face rents average $110/sqm. Incentives
the levels recorded in previous years with sales activity in the first    broadly range between 5-10% for prime and 10-15% for secondary
quarter of 2020 is at its lowest level since 2010. However, should        which is the lowest across the Melbourne submarkets.
shutdowns and other restrictions be scaled back in the first half of
                                                                          Looking ahead, a number of buildings will become available later in
2020, we anticipate that the second half of 2020 will be particularly
                                                                          2020 and as a result, the total vacancy rate is expected to increase.
busy as investors progress ahead with their divestment mandates.
                                                                          However, the bulk of these availabilities are within the secondary
Given the global and local economic uncertainty, we expect there          market and as a result, prime grade vacancy will remain tight and
to be a flight to quality with regards to both asset type and tenant      rents are expected to remain relatively stable over the next 12
covenant. Consequently, we expect there may be some softening             months.
of yield metrics over the next 12 months, albeit concentrated in the
                                                                          Within the investment market, limited transactions have occurred
secondary market as risk becomes priced in. The current spread of
                                                                          over the past six months by virtue of the tightly held nature of the
100 basis points between prime and secondary yields in Melbourne
                                                                          market. The most recent notable investment sale to occur in the
suggests this spread will widen in the current environment, trending
                                                                          precinct was 1-23 Wirraway Drive, Port Melbourne which was
towards the long-term average of 153 basis points and the secondary
                                                                          acquired by GPT from a private investor, with a 6-year lease in place
market is expected to bear the brunt of this movement.
                                                                          to Computershare for more than $30 million, reflecting an initial

Leasing Market                                                            yield of sub-5%. This has reset pricing for prime industrial assets in
                                                                          Port Melbourne which now sit at 4.75%-5.25%. No change in yield
Overall, tenancy demand has been significant across the Melbourne
                                                                          metrics has been recorded for secondary assets which remain at
market, led by the West where high levels of activity has been
                                                                          5.75-6.25%.
recorded from transport and logistics providers as well as retailers.
Leasing enquiries have dropped off as a result of COVID-19 as             West
businesses look to assess the impacts on their operations. However,       The Melbourne West industrial and logistics market continues to
we are starting to see a pick-up in demand from defensive occupiers       be one of the most active markets in Australia and accounted for
and those operating in the non-discretionary space and this has           a large share of Melbourne’s pre-commitment activity over the
included cold storage providers, food and beverage retailers,             past six months. Major pre-commitments in 2020 include Uniqlo
e-commerce providers and transport and logistics groups.                  (46,000 sqm) and Bridgestone (24,000 sqm) at Charter Hall’s
                                                                          Midwest Estate in Truganina while CEVA Logistics pre-committed
While these occupiers are expected to account for a large share of
                                                                          to 37,307sqm within Frasers West Park Industrial estate, also at
leasing volumes over the next 12 months, the COVID-19 outbreak
                                                                          Truganina.
has the potential to revive Australia’s manufacturing capabilities
and reduce our reliance on global supply chains as more goods are         The speculative development market has also been active and
made locally. With Melbourne historically having strong ties to the       follows GPT committing Godfrey Hirst Carpets (14,402 sqm) and Pet
manufacturing sector, Melbourne is well placed to capture demand          Stock (12,088 sqm) to the stage 1 of their Gateway Logistics Hub.
from businesses in this space.                                            LOGOS also secured EFM Logistics Services Group (23,222 sqm) to
                                                                          their Marshall Court, Altona site and Aliro have leased half of their 45

11
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

National Drive, Truganina development to Quatius Logistics (8,500        have since announced their exit from the Australian market, however,
sqm).                                                                    construction of the facility continues to progress. Enquiries in the
                                                                         market remain at heathy levels, albeit down from the heights seen in
The existing building market has been more subdued over the past
                                                                         the pre-COVID-19 period.
six months, however, lease deals to Austpac (15,100 sqm) at 25
Briggs Drive, Derrimut and Monza Imports (5,049 sqm) at 209-213          The investment market remains tightly held with few assets trading
Maidstone Street, Altona were concluded over the past quarter.           over the past six months. Prime yields currently average 6.0% while
                                                                         secondary yields are higher at 6.9%.
Despite the strong start to 2020, leasing enquiries have dropped off
in recent weeks given the uncertainty of COVID-19 and subsequently       South East and Outer East
a number of occupiers are putting their leasing decisions on             The South East and Outer East industrial and logistics market of
hold. However, defensive occupiers remain active, highlighted by         Melbourne recorded a strong start to 2020 with approximately
Fernhurst’s recent pre-commitment to a 7,070 sqm purpose-built           79,500 sqm leased across 11 transactions (3,000 sqm+), almost
cold storage facility at the Charter Hall Drystone Industrial Estate     double the 10-year average. Given the strong leasing demand, the
within Truganina.                                                        vacancy rate in the precinct is extremely tight at 2.2%. The prime
There has been little movement in rentals over the last 12 months for    market continues attract strong levels of demand with the vacancy
both prime and secondary markets and this party reflects the level of    rate currently sitting at 1.0% and subsequently there are a lack of
supply which has entered the market. Prime net face rents currently      leasing options available. The sweet spot for demand has been in
average $82/sqm, while secondary net face rents are lower at $65/        the 5,000-10,000 sqm range, where nine transactions have occurred
sqm. At this level, prime rents are 28% below the Melbourne average      year to date.
which accentuates the area’s appeal to prospective tenants and as        Since the outbreak of COVID-19, new enquiries have dropped,
a result, almost 340,000 sqm of leasing activity in 2019 stemmed         particularly for long term lease deals. However, demand from
from tenant migration from other Australian industrial and logistics     non-discretionary occupiers has remained solid. More recently,
markets. Tenant migration from the City Fringe (38%), North (30%)        this included Vincent Cold Storage agreeing to a five-year lease
and interstate markets (18%) were the dominant locations in which        for a 8,655 sqm cold storage warehouse at 102-108 Bridge Road,
tenants moved from in 2019.                                              Keysborough.
Transaction activity has been steady, however concentrated in the        While demand for long term tenancies has waned, there has
sub $10 million over the past quarter given the lack of prime core       been a notable increase in short term enquires within the market,
assets offered to the market. The most recent sale was Dexus’            particularly from food retailers (including supermarkets) who require
acquisition of 22 Business Park Drive, Ravenhall for $9.0 million on a   overflow space given the recent spike in demand.
short-term sale and leaseback to AS Colour. Average yields for prime
                                                                         Rents have recorded modest increases over the past 12 months
assets currently range between 4.75% to 5.25% while secondary
                                                                         with prime assets averaging $94/sqm in the South East and $103/
assets currently range from 6.5% to 7.0%.
                                                                         sqm in the Outer East. A more substantial increase was recorded
North                                                                    for the secondary markets and currently averages $76/sqm in the
The North sub-market has seen continued strong tenant demand,            South East and $77/sqm in the Outer East. Incentives broadly range
particularly for new and prime grade stock. Reflecting this was          between 10-20% across both prime and secondary grades.
Mazda’s recent pre-commitment of 37,323 sqm within Frasers’ 4Ten
                                                                         Following a strong 2019 where approximately $600 million traded off
Epping Business Park. Melbourne Airport continues to remain an
                                                                         the back of several large sale and leaseback transactions, investment
attractive option for occupiers given the affordable economic rent and
                                                                         activity has slowed. A recent transaction in the precinct was 180
recent leasing demand has stemmed from Bapcor (48,000 sqm) and
                                                                         Browns Road, Noble Park which was acquired by a private investor
Agility Logistics (30,000 sqm).
                                                                         from Quintessential Equity for $14.7 million. Prime yields currently
Despite strong tenant demand, rents have remained largely                range between 5.50%-5.75% and 6.25%-6.75% for secondary
unchanged over the past year with prime net face rents currently         across the market.
averaging $85/sqm while secondary assets average $70/sqm (net
face). Incentives remain at 15% for prime and 12% for secondary
assets. The catalyst behind subdued rental growth has been the
elevated vacancy rate which currently stands at 8.4% across the
market. We note, the bulk of these vacancies exist at the larger end
of the market (20,000sqm+) where there is just over 250,000 sqm
available for lease. Leasing options for other size ranges is limited,
particularly within the sub 10,000 sqm size range.

Rental growth is expected to remain subdued within the market given
the elevated vacancy rate and new supply additions which will enter
the market. Most notably, this will include the Kaufland Distribution
                                                                         385-397 Francis St, Brooklyn
Centre (113,600 sqm) at MAB’s Merrifield Business Park. Kaufland
                                                                         Sold on behalf of QUBE.

12
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

BRISBANE
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators* - March 2020                                                                Pre-commitment development activity dominates and drives leasing
                                                                                               demand. The flight to quality remains an ongoing theme while
               AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                                                   demand for existing assets is steady, albeit lacking urgency.
               Prime                Secondary
                                                                                               Leasing demand and enquiries have been underpinned by transport
                 L                  H                        L                  H
                                                                                               and logistics providers while more recently there has been an
              $107                $114                     $72                 $90             uptick in demand recorded from manufacturing occupiers. The
                                                                                               South precinct has been particularly active and reflects new supply
               AVERAGE YIELDS                                                                  entering the market.
               Prime                                       Secondary
                 L                  H                        L                  H              Despite the uncertain market conditions, developers continue to
                                                                                               support development activity. In 2020, industrial completions across
             5.70%               6.18%                   7.00%               7.75%
                                                                                               Brisbane are set to potentially total almost 400,000 sqm (projects
                                                                                               under construction or already complete), moderately above the
               AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)                                                   375,000 sqm of new supply added in 2019.
               Prime                 Secondary
                 L                  H                        L                  H              Despite a generally tight vacancy rate across the market, rental
             $1,736              $2,012                   $932               $1,289            growth is expected to remain subdued over the next 12 months, with
                                                                                               isolated increases in incentives expected particularly for secondary
                                                                                               grade assets. The patchy leasing market and new supply is the
                           DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                                                  catalyst behind this outlook.

               2020                                   ANNUAL AVERAGE                           Recent market evidence supports a continued firm yield outlook
               FORECAST                               (2010-2019)                              for core assets. Secondary assets are likely to experience some
                 401,120m2                             269,295m2                               softening as leasing, covenant and asset risk becomes priced in.

* Includes the following precincts: ATC, North and Outer North, South, South West and Yatala

Brisbane Industrial Supply (sqm)                                                               Brisbane Prime and Secondary Yields (%)
450,000
                                                                                               11.0%
400,000
                                                                                               10.0%
350,000
                                                                                                9.0%
300,000
                                                                                                8.0%
250,000
                                                                                                7.0%
200,000                                                                                         6.0%
 150,000                                                                                        5.0%
 100,000                                                                                        4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mar-20
                                                                                                       Mar-05
                                                                                                                Mar-06
                                                                                                                         Mar-07
                                                                                                                                  Mar-08
                                                                                                                                           Mar-09
                                                                                                                                                    Mar-10
                                                                                                                                                             Mar-11
                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-12
                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-13
                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-19

  50,000
        0
             2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
                                                                                                                                                    Prime                      Secondary
Source: Colliers International
Note: 2020 - Completed and under construction projects only                                    Source: Colliers International

13
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

By Karina Salas
                                                                          (21,200 sqm - Berrinba Logistics Park).
Associate Director | Research
karina.salas@colliers.com                                                 Although vacancy is moderate across the market, the patchy leasing
                                                                          market coupled with the development supply pipeline is expected to
Leasing Market                                                            hamper rental growth over the medium term, with isolated increases
Increasing occupier demand drives take up albeit                          in incentives expected particularly for secondary grade assets. The
rents forecast to hold steady                                             average prime grade net face rents across all precincts held steady
Occupier demand in the Brisbane industrial and logistics market has       in Q1 2020 at $111/sqm, while the average secondary grade net face
remained steady over the past six months despite the uncertainties        rents followed a similar trend, holding steady at $81/sqm. Incentives
triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak, with increasing demand from           across all precincts broadly range between 15-20% with the ATC
industrial operators within the pharmaceutical and logistics sectors.     region being at the lower end of this range.
The flight to quality remains an ongoing theme with tenant activity
focussed on the prime market as occupiers seek the operational            Investment Market
efficiencies derived from newer facilities. Demand continues to be        The predominance of sale and leaseback
skewed towards new construction with a steady stream of major             transactions
commitments to either D&C or speculatively developed space.               Transaction volumes have risen significantly over the past year
In contrast, the general leasing market is patchy with notably            with approximately $1.6 billion changing hands in the 12 months
less demand for existing accommodation, particularly within the           to March 2020, up from $1.1 billion at the same time last year. The
secondary market where a large portion of current vacancies exist.        strong result over the past year stemmed from four $100 million plus
The movement of tenants upgrading to higher quality premises              sales which collectively accounted for 40% of investment volumes.
has been facilitated by favourable incentive metrics which in some        Institutions were the most active groups on the acquisition side,
precincts are as high as 20%, particularly in Outer precincts like the    representing 89% of sales (by volume) over the past 12 months while
South and South West.                                                     corporates accounted for 36% of vendors by volume and came off
                                                                          the back of several large sale and leaseback transactions. Notably,
During 2019, approximately 400,000 sqm of industrial and logistics        sale and leaseback activity in Brisbane was headlined by the Arnotts
space was leased (5,000sqm+) with 65% of this demand stemming             facility in Virginia which was sold by KKR following their acquisition
from the pre-commitment and speculative market. By sector, leasing        of the Campbell Soup business to the Centuria Industrial REIT for
demand and enquiries have been underpinned by transport and               $211.8 million.
logistics providers while more recently there has been an uptick in
demand recorded from manufacturing occupiers. Like other markets,         Across Brisbane the average prime yield currently stands at 5.94%
take-up is shifting towards occupiers who provide non-discretionary       and generally ranges between 5.5% to 6.5% depending on the
goods, and this is highlighted by a logistic operator who has recently    asset’s location. Secondary assets are priced at 7.38% on average
sub-leased 10,000 sqm to support the supply of medical equipment          and range between 6.75% to 8.0%, reflecting a 144 basis point
to the State Government for a period of 12 months.                        spread to the prime market.

The South precinct has been particularly active over the past six         Looking ahead, investment volumes are expected to weaken as
months and has represented the bulk of Brisbane’s leasing volumes         institutions and corporates hold off on their divestment plans in the
over the period. The increased rate of activity in the precinct partly    short term. With demand from local and offshore groups waning
reflects new supply entering the market with 151,000 sqm added in         given the uncertainty in the market, private investors have become
2019. Notable lease deals to occur in the precinct include Lincoln        increasingly active as they capitalise on a period of weaker capital
Sentry, a subsidiary of Dulux, leasing 9,766 sqm at 243 Bradman           depth. The strength of private investors was evidenced by the
Street in Acacia Ridge.                                                   recent sale of 731 Curtin Avenue East in Pinkenba which sold to City
                                                                          Freeholds (Sydney based private investor) for $34.7 million while
Despite the uncertain market conditions, developers continue to           the residual buyer panel largely consisted of both local and interstate
support development activity for projects backed with long-term           investors. Reflecting a yield of 5.8%, the sale provided clarity that
leases representing about 76% of the development activity completed       yield metrics for well-located assets will hold up in the current
in 2019. Similarly, we expect to see a deferral of speculative projects   COVID-19 climate.
over the short term. Supply levels in 2019 totalled circa 375,000
sqm, underpinned by the South and ATC regions which collectively          Similar to the leasing market, the current economic environment is
accounted for 62% of supply in 2019.                                      expected to result in a flight to quality for well-located core assets
                                                                          with strong covenants. The lack of available investment opportunities
Looking forward into 2020, industrial and logistics completions           in recent years has seen investors move up the risk curve with
across Brisbane are set to potentially total circa 400,000 sqm            buyers more receptive to taking on leasing risk or less functional
(projects under construction or already complete). The South and          secondary assets, however, recent events are expected to result
South West submarkets are expected to capture 82% of new supply           in a moderate repricing of assets as risk becomes priced in. Given
over the period and will primarily stem from purpose-built facilities     this, a greater distinction between prime and secondary assets is
including Rheinmetall (32,042 sqm - Redbank Motorway Estate),             anticipated with yields for core offerings with a strong business
DHL (20,567 sqm - Wembley Business Park) and CEVA Logistics               profile expected to remain close to current levels.

14
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

ADELAIDE
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - March 2020                                      Transaction activity above $5 million was strong in the last quarter
                                                                    of 2019, however, activity has since slowed with just one major sale
                                                                    being recorded in the first quarter of 2020.
             AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)
             Prime                Secondary
                                                                    There is still some activity in the market below $5 million which is
              L                  H             L             H      being driven by private investors and owner occupiers.
             $88             $121            $56            $75
                                                                    Institutional capital was a key feature of the Adelaide industrial market
             AVERAGE YIELDS                                         accounting for 72% of total sales volumes during 2019, however this
             Prime                           Secondary              may fall in 2020 with a limited supply of institutional grade assets being
              L                  H             L             H      offered. The second half of 2020 could see some institutional and
           6.40%            7.75%           8.00%          9.70%    private owners divesting non-core assets.

                                                                    New Supply reached decade highs with circa 206,000 sqm of space
             AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)
                                                                    completed during 2019 and 298,000 sqm expected to be completed
             Prime                 Secondary
                                                                    in 2020. Pre- commitment activity has driven the new supply with
              L                  H             L             H      very limited speculative development. Institutional developers have
           $1,088           $1,486           $656          $1,045   become more prominent with most of these new developments being
                                                                    constructed by large institutional developers.

                        DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY

             2020                        ANNUAL AVERAGE
             FORECAST                    (2010-2019)
              298,853m2                    84,072m2

Adelaide Industrial Supply (sqm)                                    Prime Net Face YoY Rental Growth

350,000                                                              20.0%

                                                                     15.0%
300,000
                                                                     10.0%
250,000
                                                                      5.0%
200,000                                                               0.0%

 150,000                                                             -5.0%

                                                                    -10.0%
 100,000
                                                                    -15.0%
 50,000
                                                                             Mar-10

                                                                                                                 Mar-12

                                                                                                                                                     Mar-14
                                                                                                                                   Mar-13

                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-15

                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-19
                                                                                               Mar-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-20
                                                                                      Sep-10

                                                                                                                          Sep-12

                                                                                                                                            Sep-13

                                                                                                                                                              Sep-14

                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-19
                                                                                                        Sep-11

       0
           2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020               Inner North                               West                       Outer South                              Outer North                                Average

Source: Colliers International                                      Source: Colliers International

15
INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

By Kate Gray                                                               distancing measures with many retailers seeing significantly higher
Director | Research                                                        volumes of online sales across several categories. We have also
kate.gray@colliers.com
                                                                           seen interesting partnerships with Coles and Woolworths teaming

Market Overview                                                            with Australia Post to deliver basic boxes to the vulnerable in the
                                                                           community. This also expands the delivery network of both major
The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 and the social distance                  supermarkets. Going forward, the structural shift towards online
measures which have been put in place to contain the spread created        retail is expected to be permanent as consumers increasingly opt
a great deal of uncertainty in the Adelaide industrial and logistics       to buy their goods online. For the Adelaide industrial and logistics
market. However, sentiment is beginning to improve for both the local      market, this will result in a greater demand for well-located
occupier and investment market with enquiries reverting towards the        warehouse space.
levels recorded pre COVID-19. Greater certainty following the release
                                                                           New supply in 2020 is forecast to reach over 204,000 sqm with
of the Code of Conduct and subsequent ‘flattening of the curve’ have
                                                                           over 197,500 sqm completed in 2019. This is the highest level of
been the catalysts behind the improved sentiment within the market
                                                                           new industrial supply since 2007. Major projects to be added to the
in recent weeks.
                                                                           Adelaide market include distribution centres to Metcash at Gepps
The Code of Conduct provides the framework for negotiation of rent         Cross, Sigma Healthcare and Huhtamaki at Pooraka, OI Glass at West
relief for tenants. To be covered by the code, the business needs          Croydon and the expansion of the Woolworths distribution centre at
an annual turnover of below $50 million and be qualified for the           Gepps Cross.
JobKeeper Program (see sales fall by more than 30%). Our early
observations are that the industrial and logistics sector is better        Market Outlook
placed than the retail sector.
                                                                           The outlook for the Adelaide industrial market remains positive.
Infrastructure investment remains key for growth in the Adelaide           The Adelaide industrial market which has a traditionally strong
industrial and logistics market, with the most recent state budget         manufacturing base is expected to benefit post COVID-19, with
committing A$5.4 billion to the final stages of the North-South            several key industries expected to see more onshore manufacturing.
Corridor. The state government stimulus has set aside $350 million         Health equipment such as X-ray, ventilators, drug production,
for ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure projects, which are likely to support    and personal protective equipment is likely to see more onshore
the industrial sector in the medium term. The A$1.2 billion of defence     manufacturing. With Adelaide being the HQ for defence and space
infrastructure construction continues at Osborne and is nearing            investment in Australia we expect that these industries will continue
completion, which will support the frigates and submarine projects         to grow post the pandemic.
due to commence in 2020 and 2023 respectively. In the mining
                                                                           With the structural shift to online retail expected to be permanent,
sector, BHP announced that they are hiring 1,500 staff nationally
                                                                           logistics will be the big winner as retailers invest heavily in their
with many in operational and skilled trade roles. We have also seen
                                                                           online platforms and supply chain networks. The growth in online
several large manufacturers pivot production to new product lines
                                                                           shopping is expected to increase at a greater rate than pre COVID-19
with Bickfords producing hand sanitizer and Detmold Packaging
                                                                           and this will continue to drive the e-commerce sector both locally
producing medical personal protective equipment including surgical
                                                                           and globally. Logistics providers are set to benefit with increased
masks.
                                                                           consumer deliveries as a result.
Manufacturing which has seen a decline over the last decade due
                                                                           Although we expect rental growth to plateau in the short term, a
to cheaper offshore alternatives are now coming into focus as a key
                                                                           combination of increased demand for modern and efficient logistics
in managing crisis situations and building onshore capabilities. The
                                                                           accommodation and a limited supply pipeline will ensure steady
COVID 19 pandemic is likely to lead to a rethink of supply chains and
                                                                           rental growth over the medium to long term within the Adelaide
an existing and historic reliance on significant offshore production for
                                                                           market. Industries which were traditionally view as being in decline
some industries. Adelaide with a strong manufacturing base is well
                                                                           are expected to have a resurgence which places Adelaide as a key
positioned to capitalize from this change.
                                                                           beneficiary of this growth. The short term impacts of COVID-19 on
Our recent industrial sentiment survey across Australia shows that         manufacturing may see longer term benefits for South Australia with
most landlords are focused on the tenant solvency and pricing/             new technology allowing for more onshore manufacturing post the
valuation benchmarks as the biggest challenges over the next 12            pandemic.
months. We also see industrial and logistics assets being the most
preferred asset class for investors over the next 12 months.

Sales activity has slowed in the first quarter with the sale of the
Thebarton Square campus being the largest sale recorded. Many
of the listed funds which have industrial portfolios have performed
better than others with a higher exposure to office and retail. These
investments have held up in the current market, with tenants less
likely to be significantly affected by the social distance restrictions.
Logistics have been a big winner from COVID-19 and social                  Thebarton Square, Thebarton
                                                                           Sold for $17.25m on behalf of Australasian Property Developments Pty Ltd.

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INDUSTRIAL | Research & Forecast Report | H1 2020

PERTH
OVERVIEW
Market Indicators - March 2020                                         The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased uncertainty
                                                                       and has further impacted both consumer and business confidence
             AVERAGE NET FACE RENTS ($/m2)                             in WA. Some tenants impacted by the government mandated
             Prime                Secondary                            pandemic responses and global trading conditions have sought rent
                                                                       relief. However, a co-ordinated global fiscal and monetary stimulus
              L                  H               L                 H
                                                                       response to this crisis could have beneficial outcomes for the states
             $73                 $86           $55             $70
                                                                       resources sector and the investment outlook.

             AVERAGE YIELDS                                            It is still too early to see any distinct build-up of industrial space
             Prime                             Secondary               vacancy, however, a vacancy increase is looking like a high
              L                  H               L                 H   probability, given the significant business disruptions that has taken
           6.25%            7.49%             7.24%           8.43%    place to date. But this isn’t expected to be widespread or on a large
                                                                       scale. Though any increase will see a flight to quality that will impact
             AVERAGE CAPITAL VALUE* ($/m2)                             secondary grade stock in the future, unless a significant positive
             Prime                 Secondary                           economic turnaround emerges.

              L                  H               L                 H
                                                                       There has been no reportable movement in market yields, but
           $1,016           $1,251             $673            $936
                                                                       considering the interest rate outlook, we expect Prime yields to remain
                                                                       stable during 2020. The low cost of funds and lack of more favourable
                        DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY                             yield alternatives will likely continue to see investor interest in the
                                                                       higher yielding Perth market.
             2020                          ANNUAL AVERAGE
             FORECAST                      (2010-2019)                 The current land demand outlook is subdued. Vacant land pricing will
                                            242,314m2                  likely remain stable with some negative adjustment undertones.
              168,437m2

                                                                       New supply outlook is currently forecasted to also be subdued. After
                                                                       2020, the market is likely to experience new record low building
                                                                       completions during the following two year.

Perth Industrial Supply (sqm)                                          Perth Prime and Secondary Yields (%)

400,000                                                                9.5%
350,000                                                                9.0%
                                                                       8.5%
300,000
                                                                       8.0%
250,000                                                                7.5%
200,000
                                                                       7.0%
                                                                       6.5%
150,000                                                                6.0%
100,000                                                                5.5%
                                                                                                                   Mar-14

                                                                                                                                                       Mar-18

                                                                                                                                                                Mar-19
                                                                              Mar-10

                                                                                                Mar-12

                                                                                                         Mar-13

                                                                                                                            Mar-15

                                                                                                                                     Mar-16

                                                                                                                                              Mar-17
                                                                                       Mar-11

                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-20

 50,000

      0
          2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020                                             Prime              Secondary

Source: Colliers International                                         Source: Colliers International

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