Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021

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Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national
responses on European railway markets in 2020
                   July 2021
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
Introduction
                                                       Participating countries

                           AT - Austria                                                                       LV - Latvia
                     BE - Belgium                                                                               LT – Lithuania
                 BG - Bulgaria                                                                                     NL - Netherlands
                HR - Croatia                                                                                          NO - Norway
     CZ – Czech Republic                                                                                                PL - Poland
             EE - Estonia                                                                                               PT - Portugal
            FI - Finland                                                                                                 RO - Romania
            FR - France                                                                                                  RS – Serbia
          DE - Germany                                                                                                 SK - Slovakia
            GR – Greece                                                                                               SI - Slovenia
             HU - Hungary                                                                                            ES - Spain
                   IE - Ireland                                                                                     SE - Sweden
                          IT - Italy                                                                            UK - United Kingdom

   SCOPE                                                                    CONTENT OF THE REPORT
                                                                                       Qualitative impacts of the COVID-19 crisis

                                                                                        The rail passenger market
             26                   2019            2020
                                        changes                                         The rail freight market
        countries
                                                                                        Train departures
  Analysis of the temporal
  impacts of the COVID-19                                                               Punctuality of trains
  pandemic throughout 2020
                                                                                        + separate Excel dataset

  IRG-Rail publications to monitor the COVID-19 impacts
        May 2020                              April 2021                                 July 2021                            April 2022
                                                                                                                                              ▼

       IRG-Rail statement1:               9th Market Monitoring                    Impacts of the COVID-19               10th Market Monitoring
    “European rail regulators               Report2 – Focus on                    crisis and national responses           Report : global annual
   contribute to the recovery            COVID-19 impacts in the                       on European railway              and five-year changes on
    from the COVID-19 crisis”             first 6 months of 2020                          markets in 2020               European railway markets

1https://irg-rail.eu/irg/news/press-release/264,European-rail-regulators-contribute-to-the-recovery-from-the-COVID-19-crisis.html
2https://irg-rail.eu/irg/documents/market-monitoring/312,2021.html

2 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
01 // Introduction

IRG-Rail – A network of cooperation
The Independent Regulators’ Group-Rail (IRG-Rail) was established by 15 European rail regulatory bodies in
June 2011. From the beginning, the objective of the group has been to establish a network of cooperation
between member regulatory organizations in the railway sector. The group has expanded over the years and
today includes members from 31 countries.
IRG-Rail members aim to consistently deal with regulatory challenges and rail developments across Europe.
IRG-Rail acts as a platform for cooperation, sharing best practice and promoting a consistent application of the
European regulatory framework. As put forward in the Group’s statutory document3, “the overall aim of IRG-Rail
is to facilitate the creation of a single, competitive, efficient and sustainable railway market in Europe”.

            what we do
             Article 56 (paragraph 2) of Directive 2012/34/EU states that regulatory bodies have a formal duty to monitor the
             situation in the railway market. Market monitoring is therefore an essential task for the national regulatory bodies. It is
             also a vital instrument for enhancing market transparency, setting direction for the activities of regulatory bodies and
             encouraging market participants to develop and improve their activities.

             General aim of IRG-Rail Market Monitoring Working Group
                                  The IRG-Rail Market Monitoring Working group was set up as a platform for cooperation and
                                  exchange of best practices in terms of collection and analysis of data. The group has agreed on a
                                  set of guidelines4 for gathering railway related data. Based on the results of a yearly collection, an
                                  annual Market Monitoring Report is elaborated by the Working Group.
                                  The Ninth IRG-Rail’s Market Monitoring Report was published in April 2021. It provides an annual
                                  overview of market developments and the economic conditions in the railway sector in 2019 with
                                  respect to IRG-Rail member countries. The report also enables comparison over time regarding
                                  the development and competitiveness of the railway market.

             A specific analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic
                                  The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic significantly impacted European railway markets due to its
                                  effect on the global mobility of European passengers and freight transport in 2020. In line with
                                  regulatory bodies’ responsibility to monitor their respective markets, this publication provides an
                                  annual overview of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on rail markets observed in 2020
                                  (compared with 2019). This publication examines changes in rail traffic and demand (for freight
                                  and passenger services), quality of service (punctuality of trains), and additional impacts and
                                  specific measures adopted for the rail sector by countries to mitigate the impacts and to ensure the
                                  public health.
                                  This overview is based on data collected by IRG-Rail in 2020 and 2021 focusing on indicators
                                  which highlight the impact of the pandemic during 2020. The data from the graphics are available
                                  on the IRG-Rail website5.

            Methodology
                                  It is the responsibility of each regulatory body to gather, quality-assure and submit data according
                                  to the guidelines agreed upon by the Working Group. The Working Group has developed a common
                                  template in order to ease the effort for the regulatory bodies and to ensure the comparability of the
                                  data. Data can originate from market surveys carried out by the regulatory bodies and/or national
                                  statistics as well as additional trustworthy sources. In the case of this specific publication and due
                                  to the early date for data collection of the COVID-19 impacts in 2020, several statistics gathered
                                  from countries are based on estimations. All data might be updated and consolidated and must be
                                  considered temporary for this publication.
                                  Twenty-six countries contributed to this Report. However, most countries were not able to provide
                                  complete data. In order to ensure reliable and consistent information, this report only presents
                                  indicators for which enough data was made available. Consequently, some analyses are performed
                                  using data from a selection of the participating countries. In each section of the report, key figures
                                  and analyses presented use a consistent sample of countries. Therefore, some sections may not
                                  cover all 26 countries. Detailed information and specific data by country are provided as well in
                                  each section of this publication.

3
  https://www.irg-rail.eu/irg/about-irg-rail/general-information/About-the-IRG-Rail.html
4
  The guidelines can be found on IRG-Rail website.
5
  The data can be found here.

                                                                                           Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 3
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
01 // Introduction

                The COVID-19 crisis has significantly impacted the EU transport system in 2020. The spread of the virus has led to
                restrictions of international and domestic travels and has caused a global decline in the demand for passenger transport
                while allowing rail transport to still provide crucial services. This has also been the case for the transportation of goods
                despite a global setback of the economic activity as well for freight transport.
                This led to decreases in 2020 for transport demand in general, of about -48% for annual passenger-km and of -7%
                for freight tonne-km. The smaller decline of rail transport supply (-8% for departures for passenger trains
                and -6% for freight trains) mostly concerned the second quarter of 2020. Rail freight transport even showed an
                increase in comparison with 2019 during the last quarter of the year. In parallel to this drop in rail transport activity, the
                punctuality of rail transport showed improvement during all quarters of 2020 for both passenger and freight services.
                Despite the application of temporary or permanent measures adopted to limit the impact of the pandemic on the railway
                sector (among which the adjustments of track access charges or state aids), the railway undertakings suffered direct
                economic consequences of this drop of rail activities. At the date of publication of this report the consolidated financial
                impacts in revenues have not been collected by IRG-Rail. The first results presented in the 9th Market Monitoring Report
                of IRG-Rail (temporary indicators based on a reduced panel of countries who could provide the data) showed global
                decreases for most countries during the first six months of 2020 of both passenger and freight revenues. The European
                infrastructure managers also recorded decreases of the access charges (from RUs and subsidies) collected for the first
                semester, with substantial differences between countries though.
                This is the second IRG-Rail publication of 2021 focusing on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic after the publication of
                the 9th Market Monitoring report. IRG-Rail will continue to closely monitor these impacts and responses for 2020 as well
                as for the coming years to assess how the European railway markets recover from the COVID-19 crisis. To support this
                work, IRG-Rail will publish its 10th Market Monitoring report in early 2022. This will include a complementary analysis
                (including financial analysis) and a more complete overview of key rail indicators.

                                                Impacts of COVID-19 on
                                                  European Railways
Passenger services
                                                Passenger-km                                  Departures                                Punctuality

          Full year                                ▼48%                                       ▼8%                                  ▲2.3 pp
                                                    (24 countries)                             (23 countries)                             (20 countries)

                                              Q1      Q2      Q3       Q4                Q1      Q2      Q3       Q4               Q1       Q2      Q3      Q4
          Quarterly                                                                     -3%              -4%      -1%                      4,2pp
                                             -16%                                                                                 0,9pp            2,0pp 2,8pp
                                                                                                -25%
                                                             -42%
                                                                      -55%
                                                     -76%

Freight services
                                             Freight tonne-km                                 Departures                                Punctuality

          Full year                                 ▼7%                                       ▼6%                                  ▲4.0 pp
                                                    (23 countries)                             (24 countries)                             (17 countries)

                                              Q1      Q2      Q3       Q4                Q1      Q2      Q3       Q4               Q1       Q2      Q3      Q4

          Quarterly                                                    4%                                         2%                       6,1pp
                                                                                                                                  4,1pp
                                                                                                                                                   3,1pp   3,0pp

                                             -9%              -7%                       -7%              -6%
                                                     -15%                                       -14%

   Notes: All comparisons are for 2020 compared with 2019. The number of IRG countries are provided under each metric in brackets. Punctuality is measured by the
          percentage of trains that arrived on time. The threshold used is based on the national thresholds applied for this statistic (see Chapter 6 for details).

4 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
02
                                                         Qualitative impacts
                                                       of the COVID-19 crisis
                                                              and responses

  Impacts and measures 2020

        2 main phases of
           impacts :                                            194 days
                                                                   €4.22
                                                          on average with                               13 / 26 states
                                                           requirements
                                                            average TAC/                           provided financial aids
  23Feb.|31Mar. –► 30Jun.
                                                        recommendations
                                                             per train-km to                              to RUs
   Mid Oct. –► Dec. 2020                                    stay at home

The sample used to calculate these figures is specified in the following pages.

                                                                                  Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 5
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
02 // Qualitative impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and responses

    Global restrictions on rail transport demand
                                                      Figure 1 – Calendar of “Stay at home” requirements/recommendations per country6
The COVID-19 pandemic affected all
European countries during the majority                                   1 Jan   31 Jan 1 Mar   1 Apr     1 May   1 Jun   1 Jul   1 Aug 31 Aug 1 Oct     31 Oct 1 Dec 31 Dec
of 2020. From March 2020, most                                       Italy                23 Feb
                                                               Denmark                       3 Mar
countries implemented strict measures                   The Netherlands
                                                               Germany
                                                                                                12 Mar
                                                                                               9 Mar
of confinement or restrictions on                               Hungary
                                                               Romania
                                                                                                12 Mar
                                                                                                12 Mar
internal movement, resulting in a                               Slovakia
                                                                 Kosovo
                                                                                                12 Mar
                                                                                                13 Mar
major drop in global mobility in all                                Latvia
                                                                       UK
                                                                                                13 Mar
                                                                                                13 Mar
countries. This affected demand for rail                        Slovenia                         14 Mar
                                                                    Spain                        14 Mar
transport, as well as other modes of                     Czech Republic                          15 Mar
                                                                   Serbia                        15 Mar
transport.                                                        Austria                         16 Mar
                                                                 Finland                          16 Mar
                                                               Lithuania                          16 Mar
                                                                  France                          17 Mar
                                                            Luxembourg                            17 Mar
In most cases, restrictive measures on                       Switzerland                          17 Mar
                                                                Belgium                            18 Mar
internal movements lasted for the                               Bulgaria                           18 Mar
                                                                Portugal                           19 Mar
entirety of the second quarter of 2020.                           Croatia
                                                                  Greece
                                                                                                    23 Mar
                                                                                                    23 Mar
A second phase of strict measures was                           Sweden
                                                                  Ireland
                                                                                                     25 Mar
                                                                                                     26 Mar
seen in several countries during the                             Estonia
                                                                  Poland
                                                                                                      29 Mar
                                                                                                       31 Mar
last quarter of 2020.                                            Norway                                                                                        5 Nov
                                                                                      lockdown measures with exceptions           recommendations not leaving house

                                                                                                                   Figure 2 – Number of days in 2020 with “stay
     There were differences in lockdown measures and their impact on rail transport                                at home” requirements/recommendations6
     demand:
     •       The implementation of measures to specific train services. In several countries there
             was no regulatory restriction on the transport of goods, and some freight services
             even saw an increase in their demand for domestic distribution (e.g. UK).
     •       The implementation by geographical region. Some internal restrictions on movement
             varied at a regional level, as well as for national and international travels. This was
             the case for example in Italy, UK and Germany.
     16 countries reintroduced land, air and sea border control in light of the COVID-19
     pandemic, banning or at least restricting international movements.

         The drop in passenger demand due to lockdown measures and transport
         restrictions imposed by the national authorities had a direct impact on the
         economy of the railway sector, with the partial or complete shutdown of several
         railway activities (in particular international services)

         Other derived impacts have also been observed by railway undertakings
         (RUs) or the infrastructure managers (IMs) as a result of the pandemic:

         •    Limitation of the capacity of transport: some countries implemented rules to limit the capacity of passenger trains by as
              much as 50% or 40% (e.g. Croatia, Italy, France, Portugal, Spain), to prohibit the sale of more tickets than the
              available seats (e.g. Denmark), or to close train stations with short platforms where no social distancing could be
              maintained (UK);
         •    Timetable adjustments: reduced timetables were put in place (e.g. Austria, Belgium, Finland, Italy, Norway,
              Slovakia, UK) especially for PSO services, with the aim of ensuring minimal passenger services and essential connections
              or a higher reliability of train services, or allowing more capacity for freight services. The scheduled timetable was
              maintained during large parts of the year in Portugal, Sweden in order to avoid congestion on board trains. For freight
              transport the conditions of proposal of alternative rail/road PSO services were facilitated in some countries (e.g. Poland);
         •    The implementation of additional sanitary measures to prevent the spread of the virus was adopted by several RUs in
              Europe, leading to potential additional costs. In Finland new services were put in place to allow the purchase of an empty
              adjoining place or a cabin for your own use.
         •    A temporary relaxation of legal terms for passenger ticket change, cancellation, extension of the validity period, or
              refunding of season tickets were adopted in Austria, Finland, France, Germany or UK. An extension of the validity
              period of legal documents of RUs (e.g. safety certificate and train driving licence, deadlines for staff training) was adopted
              in some countries (e.g. Poland, Spain);
         •    A decrease of tariffs for wagon rentals due to the decrease in freight transportation was also noted by RUs in Estonia;
         •    The suspension of planned rail maintenance by infrastructure managers was noted in some countries (e.g. Belgium) due
              to subcontractors being unavailable. Other countries (e.g. Austria) indicated that due to reduced traffic the main
              infrastructure manager was able to focus on construction and maintenance work.
6 Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, indicator C6 “Stay at home requirements”. The indicator records orders (either requirements or
recommendations) to “shelter-in-place” and otherwise confine to the home.

6 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
02 // Qualitative impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and responses

    Response measures adopted in 2020

           Some temporary or permanent financial measures were                                            Regulation (EU) 2020/1429 establishing
           adopted in 2020 to limit the impact of the pandemic on the                                     measures for a sustainable rail market in
           railway sector by the states or infrastructure managers:                                       view of the COVID-19 outbreak
           •     Adjustment of track access charges: six countries noted                                  On October 7th, 2020, regulation (EU) 2020/1429
                 adjustments in the charging principles applied by infrastructure                         establishing measures for a sustainable rail
                 managers for rail activities. These adjustments could be applied as                      market in view of the COVID-19 outbreak was
                 raw discounts of global or specific charges, the postponing of the                       adopted. This regulation includes temporary
                 invoicing, or as changes of the references for charges or discount                       measures to help the railway sector to face the
                                                                                                          impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. It enables
                 schemes to take into account the sudden decrease of volumes.                             Member States to authorise infrastructure
                 Several infrastructure managers also decided to apply a relaxation                       managers to remove, postpone or lower the
                 of cancellation charges or reservation penalties.                                        charges for access in rail infrastructure during the
           •     State aids to railway undertakings have been provided in various                         pandemic, while ensuring state aids to the IMs
                                                                                                          for this loss of revenue. This temporary
                 ways to limit the impacts for the railway sector, as a funding of
                                                                                                          regulation which substitutes to the actual
                 track access charges (three countries), and 13 RBs noted a raw                           European regulatory framework for track access
                 compensation of loss of revenue (with possible incentives) or as an                      charges, first applied during a period of reference
                 increase of public subsidies. 16 countries also granted temporary                        going from March 1st 2020 until December 31th
                 unemployment aid and subsidised loans, or the postponement of                            2020, but has been extended until June 30th 2021
                 public charges or debts. Temporary PSO contracts have been                               by Commission delegated regulation (EU)
                 granted as well in two countries.                                                        2020/2180 of December 18th, 2020.

           •     State aids to the infrastructure managers or specific funding and                        At the time of the publication, several countries
                 incentives for infrastructure projects (or direct capital increase)                      considered applying for 2020 or 2021 specific
                 were also granted in specific countries to compensate for their loss                     national regulations in line with Regulation (EU)
                                                                                                          2020/1429, but no country directly applied this
                 of revenue.
                                                                                                          European regulation.

 Figure 3 – Financial measures adopted by states or infrastructure managers by category
                 Adjustment of Track Access Charges (TAC) and
                                                                                  State aids to the railway undertakings or infrastructure managers
                          cancellation/reservation charges
                                                     Relaxation of             Compensation Compensations                Loan facilities, credit
                 Changes                  Changes                                                                                                  Temporary
                            Postponing               cancellation              for the loss of for the loss of Temporary    guarantees, or
                  of the                   of the                    Fundings                                                                    unemployment
                               of the                  charges /              revenue for the revenue for the     PSO    postponing of public
                 level of                reference                    of TAC                                                                     aid and short-
                             invoicing                reservation              infrastructure      railway      contract charges or debts (or
                   TAC                    for TAC                                                                                                  term work
                                                       penalties                  manager       undertakings               “tax vacation”)
    Austria                                               x             x            x                               x                                   x
   Belgium                                                x                                                                           x                  x
   Bulgaria
    Croatia                                               x                                           x                               x
Czech Republic
    Estonia                                 x                                                         x
    Finland                                                                                           x                               x
    France                                                              x                             x                                                  x
   Germany                                               x              x             x               x                               x                  x
    Greece                                                                                            x
   Hungary                                                                            x               x
    Ireland
      Italy         x           x                         x                           x               x                               x                  x
     Latvia                                                                                                                           x
   Lithuania                                                                                                                          x
 Netherlands                                                                                          x
    Norway                      x                         x                                                          x                x                  x
    Poland                                                x                                           x                               x
   Portugal                                               x
   Romania                                                                            x               x                               x                  x
     Serbia
   Slovakia         x
   Slovenia                                               x                                                                                              x
     Spain                                  x             x                                                                           x
    Sweden                      x                                                                     x                               x                  x
       UK                                                                                             x                                                  x
               This overview of global impacts and measures taken by States / Regulatory bodies / Infrastructure managers is based on
               free text-field answers collected by IRG-Rail at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 focusing on indicators which
               highlight the impact of the pandemic during 2020. This section aims to show a collection of factors cited by countries but
               does not represent an exhaustive overview of impacts and measures observed for every country in the panel.
               The complete answers to these qualitative questions can be found in the dataset published with the report.

                                                                                          Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 7
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
03
                                           The rail passenger market

         2019  2020 comparison

                                                                                         [-25% to -65%]
                                                                                           passenger-km
                                                                                          for PSO services

                 -11%                                               -48%                 [-41% to -93%]
                                                                                             passenger-km
                    train-km                                     passenger-km            for non-PSO services

       The sample used to calculate these figures is specified in the following pages.

8 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
03 // The rail passenger market in 2020

               Passenger traffic - A decrease of almost 50 %
               compared with 2019
                •   Passenger traffic indicates a severe shortfall in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. All of the 24 countries
                    providing data showed a negative difference between 2019 and 2020.
                •   Passenger-km came down from 419 billion in 2019 to 217 billion in 2020 which was an average decrease of
                    48%, ranging from -26% to -65%.

Figure 4 – Change in passenger-km, comparison 2020/2019

 -65%                                                           Ireland
 -65%                                                           UK
        -59%                                                    Spain
        -59%                                                    Netherlands
           -55%                                                 Belgium
             -54%                                               Norway
                -49%                                            Greece
                 -49%                                           Portugal
                 -48%                                           Total IRG-Rail
                  -47%                                          Slovakia
                   -46%                                         Lithuania
                    -46%                                        Sweden
                    -46%                                        Austria
                      -43%                                      Slovenia
                       -43%                                     Finland
                       -43%                                     Poland
                        -42%                                    Germany
                         -41%                                   France
                          -41%                                  Czech Republic
                            -39%                                Croatia
                             -37%                               Hungary
                                -34%                            Romania
                                -34%                            Latvia
                                 -33%                           Estonia
                                        -26%                    Bulgaria

  A total of 2.9 billion passenger train-km were recorded for the    well), PSO services were partly or fully maintained by public
 25 countries which submitted data. This was a 11% reduction         authorities to guarantee a minimum access to public transport.
 from 3.2 billion passenger train-km in the previous year. This      Passenger train-km fell in all countries, apart from Hungary
 drop can be attributed to a reduced number of trains in many        (increased by 1%). In Hungary, operators were not requested
 countries. However, in several countries such as Germany,           to significantly reduce their PSO services in order to ensure safe
 Austria, Bulgaria (and possibly other European countries as         travel on trains.

          Figure 5 – Change in passenger train-km,
                                                                      -23%                                            Slovenia
          comparison 2020/2019
                                                                        -22%                                          Italy
                                                                          -21%                                        Greece
                                                                           -21%                                       France
                                                                             -19%                                     UK
                                                                               -17%                                   Serbia
                                                                                -16%                                  Croatia
                                                                                 -15%                                 Ireland
                                                                                    -13%                              Lithuania
                                                                                      -12%                            Sweden
                                                                                       -11%                           Portugal
                                                                                       -11%                           Total IRG-Rail
                                                                                        -10%                          Norway
                                                                                          -9%                         Romania
                                                                                           -9%                        Netherlands
                                                                                            -8%                       Slovakia
                                                                                             -7%                      Finland
                                                                                              -7%                     Belgium
                                                                                               -6%                    Poland
                                                                                               -6%                    Austria
                                                                                                 -5%                  Estonia
                                                                                                   -3%                Czech Republic
                                                                                                     -2%              Bulgaria
                                                                                                      -1%             Germany
                                                                                                      -1%             Latvia
                                                                                                            1%        Hungary

                                                                         Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 9
Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and national responses on European railway markets in 2020 - July 2021
03 // The rail passenger market in 2020

             Passenger services – The drop for passenger traffic was
             greater for non-PSO services in most countries
                 For PSO-traffic, passenger-km in 19 countries                    PSO. In the majority of countries, the drop between
                decreased from 228 billion in 2019 to 119 billion in              2019 and 2020 ranges from -30 to -50%. This is
                2020, a fall of nearly 50%. The largest decreases were            because, even if trains kept running in some countries,
                in Ireland and the UK. In Austria, from April 2020                there was a large reduction in passengers due to "stay
                onwards, long-distance trains from Vienna to Salzburg             at home" recommendations of the governments.
                (including incumbent’s trains) were temporarily made

                                                           Figure 6 – Change in PSO passenger-km, comparison 2020/2019

                                                                         -65%                                              Ireland
                                                                         -65%                                              UK
                                                                                -54%                                       Belgium
                                                                                   -49%                                    Spain
                                                                                   -49%                                    Greece
                                                                                    -48%                                   Total IRG-Rail
                                                                                    -48%                                   Slovenia
                                                                                      -44%                                 Portugal
                                                                                        -41%                               Finland
                                                                                        -41%                               France
                                                                                          -39%                             Germany
                                                                                          -38%                             Croatia
                                                                                           -37%                            Czech Republic
                                                                                           -37%                            Hungary
                                                                                             -34%                          Romania
                                                                                              -32%                         Latvia
                                                                                               -31%                        Lithuania
                                                                                                -29%                       Estonia
                                                                                                 -29%                      Austria
                                                                                                   -25%                    Bulgaria

             For non-PSO traffic, passenger-km in 17 countries                  borders and therefore were the first to be stopped when
            decreased from 128 billion in 2019 to 66 billion in 2020,           countries announced their lockdown measures. As an
            meaning that half of the non-PSO traffic was eliminated.            exception, Slovenia showed an increase in non-PSO traffic
            The drop exceeded 50% in 13 of the 17 countries and                 in 2020. The reason for such an increase was the
            even 80% in four countries. In some countries, such as              introduction of several non-PSO international tourist trains
            Estonia, Finland and Latvia non-PSO services stopped                from Czech Republic and Slovakia via Slovenia to Croatia.
            running entirely. Moreover, in many countries non-PSO               These trains ran predominantly during the summer
            services are international trains which have to cross               months to Rijeka.

                                                         Figure 7 – Change in non-PSO passenger-km, comparison 2020/2019

                                                               -93%                                                   Estonia
                                                               -88%                                                   Austria
                                                                  -81%                                                Finland
                                                                  -81%                                                Lithuania
                                                                   -79%                                               Latvia
                                                                      -72%                                            UK
                                                                       -71%                                           Portugal
                                                                        -70%                                          Croatia
                                                                        -70%                                          Bulgaria
                                                                          -66%                                        Spain
                                                                           -65%                                       Belgium
                                                                            -62%                                      Czech Republic
                                                                             -61%                                     Greece
                                                                                 -49%                                 Total IRG-Rail
                                                                                  -47%                                Germany
                                                                                    -43%                              Hungary
                                                                                     -41%                             France
                                                                                                                +258% Slovenia

10 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
03 // The rail passenger market in 2020

              The occupancy rate (pass-km/train-km) dropped by
              more than 40% on average – Q2 was the most
              affected quarter
                                                Figure 8 – Change in passenger-km per train-km, comparison 2020/2019

 As a result of the                                            -59%                                                         Ireland
decreasing train-km and                                          -57%                                                       UK
reduced passenger-km, the                                          -55%                                                     Netherlands
derived ratio of these two                                           -52%                                                   Belgium
indicators decreased by                                                 -49%                                                Norway
42% on average for the 23                                                       -43%                                        Slovakia
countries providing data.                                                       -42%                                        Portugal
While the downturn of the                                                        -42%                                       Total IRG-Rail
occupancy rate can be                                                            -42%                                       Austria
partly explained by the                                                           -42%                                      Germany
strictness      of      the                                                         -39%                                    Czech Republic
lockdown/"stay at home"                                                             -39%                                    Poland
restrictions, other factors                                                          -39%                                   Finland
such as changes in mobility                                                          -39%                                   Sweden
behaviour could also have                                                             -38%                                  Hungary
played a role in this                                                                 -38%                                  Lithuania
decrease.                                                                               -36%                                Greece
                                                                                          -33%                              Latvia
                                                                                             -30%                           Estonia
                                                                                               -27%                         Romania
                                                                                               -27%                         Croatia
                                                                                                -26%                        Slovenia
                                                                                                -26%                        France
                                                                                                 -25%                       Bulgaria

Railway undertakings in all monitored countries started off in 2020 with large growth
rates for their passenger traffic (except for France due to a strike). All countries
were then severely impacted by the pandemic when governments were forced to
impose lockdown measures in March, April and May. Some countries, such as Italy
or France, only reached one fifth of the traffic in passenger train-km compared with
the previous year, while in Slovenia and Serbia all passenger services were
suspended in April. On average in all monitored countries, train-km dropped by 42%
in April and almost 30% in way undertakings May. With several of these measures
being upheld throughout the year, only a few countries managed to recover their
traffic. Due to another lockdown at the end of 2020, most European countries’                      Figure 9 – Change in passenger train-km,
railway undertakings faced another downturn but not as heavy as in the Q2 2020.                    monthly comparison

                                          Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr     May     Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
                             Slov enia    +7%    +12%   -48%   -100%   -66%     -3%   +6% +8% +8% +2% -58%            -48%
                                  Italy   +2%    +4%    -43%    -74%   -58%    -28%    -9%  -8%  -6%  -6% -17%        -23%
                               Greece     +3%    +5%    -26%    -76%   -48%    -21%    -4%  -1%  -5%  -1% -35%        -43%
                               France     -28%   +6%    -39%    -84%   -61%    -32%    -8%  -4%  -2% +4% -31%         +133%
                                Serbia     -5%   +11%   -35%   -100%   -48%     -2%    -7%  -9%  -5% +0% -2%           -9%
                             Lithuania    +11%   +14%   +4%     -34%   -28%    -22%   -18% -11% -10% -10% -20%        -28%
                                                                                                                                     0%
                              Sweden      +2%    +5%     -2%    -23%   -27%    -20%   -14% -13% -9% -10% -8%          -21%
                              Portugal    +2%    +5%     -9%    -40%   -22%     -7%   -11% -7%   -6%  -9% -12%        -12%           -20%
                                   IRG     -3%   +4%    -16%    -42%   -29%    -11%    -5%  -4%  -1%  -1%  -9%         +7%
                                                                                                                                     -40%
                             Slov akia     -0%   +4%    -16%    -30%   -18%     -7%   +1% -3%    -5%  -7%  -7%         -5%
                               Finland    +6%    +9%    +0%      -9%   -26%    -18%   -14% -8%   -6%  -6%  -6%         -4%           -60%
                              Belgium      -0%   +4%    -14%    -44%   -12%     -3%    -4%  -2%  -0%  -2%  -3%         +2%
                                                                                                                                     -80%
                                Poland    +7%    +10%    -7%    -32%   -29%    -14%    -4%  -4% +1% -0%    -1%         -2%
                              Estonia     +6%    +9%    +2%     -31%   -27%    -16%    -8%  -6% +4% +3% +6%            +3%
                       Czech Republic     +4%    +6%     -5%    -21%   -15%     -6%   +2% +2% +1% +0% -2%              -1%
                            Germany       +3%    +1%     -2%    -17%    -7%    +7%     -4%  -2% +2% -1% +0%            +8%
                                Latv ia   +4%    +8%    +1%      -5%    -5%     -4%    -1%  -1%  -1%  -1%  -1%         -3%

                                                                             Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 11
04
                                                              The rail freight market

         2019  2020 comparison

                                                               -5%
                                                               train-km

                                                                                                -7% tonne-km
     Changes in freight train-km, monthly comparison
       Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
                                                                                 4%
                                                                                           6%   [-47% to +16%] among countries
              1%                                                          1%

       -8%
                     -6%
                                           -8%
                                                   -5%
                                                          -8%
                                                                  0%
                                                                                                -1% change in freight load
                                                                                                factor (tonne-km/train-km)
                                   -17%
                            -19%

         The sample used to calculate these figures is specified in the following pages.

12 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
04 // The rail freight market in 2020

                 Freight traffic – Mixed impact throughout Europe with
                 5% global decrease compared with 2019
In general, freight traffic was much less affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than passenger traffic in 2020. In some countries, freight
services were prioritised amid the contraction of passenger traffic. In the 23 monitored countries a total of 386.6 billion net tonne-km
were transported. This was a decrease of 7% compared to 2019, with a total of 413.8 billion net-tonne km. The differences between
the monitored countries are significant (and often similar in tonne-km and train-km). In Latvia, freight traffic decreased in tonne-km
by 47%. Estonia also experienced a severe drop by 18%. Most countries experienced decreases, but net tonne-km actually increased
in Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and Hungary. Portugal and Norway showed a strong growth in freight train-km while recording a decrease
in net tonne-km at the same time.
          Figure 10 – Change in freight train-km, comparison 2020/2019
                                                                                                A total of 732.2 million freight train-km
                                                                                                were recorded for the 26 countries that
                                                                    32% Portugal                submitted data. This was a 5%
                                                              17%       Norway                  reduction from 771.7 million freight
                                                            11%         Greece
                                                            11%         Croatia                 train-km in 2019.
                                                          4%            Bulgaria
                                                          3%            Ireland
                                                         1%             Serbia
                                                  -1%                   Germany           As the GDP of the EU fell by roughly 4.8% in
                                                  -2%                   Lithuania         2020 according to EUROSTAT, the reduction
                                                 -3%                    Sweden
                                                 -4%                    Italy             of freight train-km can at least partly be
                                                -5%                     Slovenia          explained by the general drop in economic
                                                -5%                     Total IRG-Rail    activity due to the COVID-19 crisis. Although
                                                -5%                     Finland
                                                -6%                     Netherlands       the total IRG-Rail average development in
                                                -6%                     Poland            freight train-km is quite close to the
                                               -7%                      Romania           development of the EU GDP, the development
                                               -7%                      Austria
                                               -7%                      Hungary           in single countries varies widely: from a rise of
                                               -7%                      Slovakia          32% in Portugal to a decrease of 43% in
                                               -8%                      Czech Republic
                                             -10%                       Belgium           Latvia. Seven countries reported an increase
                                            -11%                        UK                in freight train-km, while 19 out of 26
                                            -11%                        France            countries registered a decrease.
                                           -14%                         Spain
                                         -20%                           Estonia
                                  -43%                                  Latvia            The sharp drop in Latvia can be explained by
                                                                                          a substantial increase in 2019 due to the
                                                                                          closure of a large coal terminal in Russia,
                                                                                          which led to a diversion of the cargo to other
     In 2020, a total of 386.6 billion net                                                ports, i.e. in Latvia. As the Russian coal
     tonne-km were recorded for the 23                                                    terminal reopened in 2020, Latvian cargo
     countries that submitted data. This was                                              decreased again. Furthermore, Russian
     a 7% reduction from 413.8 billion                                                    transports through Latvia decreased due to
     net tonne-km in 2019.                                                                sanctions imposed on Russia.

 This fall can be attributed to a reduction in freight         Figure 11 – Change in net tonne-km, comparison 2020/2019
services during the pandemic and closed borders
between some countries, especially during Q2 2020.                                                                         16% Bulgaria
                                                                                                                          14% Greece
Globally, the international supply chain was
                                                                                                                         12% Croatia
disrupted due to grounded planes and some cargo                                                                       2%       Hungary
ships were denied entry to ports. This disruption                                                               -1%            Finland
could have had an effect on rail freight.                                                                       -1%            Sweden
                                                                                                               -2%             Lithuania
 Net tonne-km decreased in 2020 in 19 out of 23                                                                                Portugal
                                                                                                              -4%
reported countries, while four countries (Bulgaria,                                                           -4%              Germany
Greece, Croatia and Hungary) recorded an increase.                                                           -5%               Czech Republic
The increase in Croatia can mainly be attributed to                                                         -5%                Netherlands
an increase in cereal exports from Hungary to Italy                                                         -6%                Norway
that have been transported through Croatia. Other                                                           -6%                Austria
goods’ transportation such as wood from Hungary                                                            -7%                 Total IRG-Rail
to Italy via Croatia as well as container transports                                                       -7%                 Poland
                                                                                                           -7%                 France
from Hungary to Croatian ports also played a role in
                                                                                                           -7%                 Slovenia
the increase. For Hungary especially, international                                                       -8%                  Slovakia
transport led to a growth: in 2020, four new railway                                                     -9%                   Belgium
undertakings that are mainly active in international                                                   -10%                    UK
transport entered the market. The increase for                                                       -14%                      Spain
Greece can also be explained by a new railway                                                        -15%                      Romania
undertaking that started operating in 2018 and                                                     -18%                        Estonia
since then gradually developed its work.                                                 -47%                                  Latvia

                                                                            Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 13
04 // The rail freight market in 2020

               The freight net tonne-km per train-km remained stable
               in Europe in 2020 (-1%) – moderate month-on-month
               decreases in traffic throughout 2020
Figure 12 – Change in net tonne-km per freight train-km, comparison 2020/2019
                                                                                                           The graph on net tonne-km per
                                                                                                          train-km shows the development of
                                                                             12%   Bulgaria
                                                                                   Hungary
                                                                                                          weight-intensity of the driven freight
                                                                            10%
                                                                       5%          France                 km. Although the overall IRG-Rail
                                                                       4%          Finland                average of the 23 countries that
                                                                      3%           Czech Republic         submitted data seems relatively
                                                                      3%           Greece                 constant (decrease of 1% vs. 2019),
                                                                     2%            Estonia                the development varies widely
                                                                    1%             Sweden                 between the        countries. While
                                                                    1%             Austria                Bulgaria reported an increase of
                                                                    1%             Croatia
                                                                                                          12%, Portugal showed a decrease of
                                                                   1%              UK
                                                                   1%              Belgium                27%. This could suggest that the
                                                                   0%              Netherlands            structure of the transported goods
                                                                   0%              Lithuania              has changed either to heavier goods
                                                                   0%              Spain                  that led to a higher load factor (i.e.
                                                           -1%                     Poland                 Bulgaria), or towards lighter goods
                                                          -1%                      Slovakia               that led to a lower load factor (i.e.
                                                          -1%                      Total IRG-Rail         Portugal).    For     Norway,      the
                                                         -2%                       Slovenia
                                                                                                          development can be explained by
                                                         -3%                       Germany
                                                                                   Latvia
                                                                                                          the increase in transport of light
                                                      -7%
                                                    -9%                            Romania                intermodal goods, such as food and
                                          -19%                                     Norway                 packages,     while    simultaneously
                                      -27%                                         Portugal               heavy industrial transportation such
                                                                                                          as lumber, iron, cars and airplane
                                                                                                          fuel decreased. Eight out of 23
                                                                                                          countries showed a downturn in net
 The heatmap shows that the decrease of freight train-km on average for the shown 17                      tonne-km per train-km, while in 15
 countries was strongest in April and May, where we observe a decrease of 19% and                         countries stable results or increases
 17% respectively compared to 2019. The decreases were moderate from June to                              were observed.
 September before a growth in freight traffic was observed during the last quarter of
 the year.
 National development varies widely: from a sharp fall in Latvia in June (-56%) to a
 strong rise in Portugal (+66%) in February. The hike of +150% in France in December
 is strongly influenced by a strike that led to a very low value in December 2019. The
 months most affected were April and May: In April, all but two countries show a
 decrease- in May, all but three countries. November and December saw the strongest
 increases: In November, 10 out of 17 countries had increases in freight train-km, while                Figure 13 – Change in freight train-km,
 in December there were increases in 13 countries.                                                      monthly comparison

                                      Jan    Feb    Mar     Apr    May      Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep     Oct    Nov    Dec
                            Latv ia   -51%   -48%   -48%    -45%    -45%    -56%   -42%   -39%   -38%    -37%   -32%   -23%
                          Estonia     -27%   -30%   -26%    -26%    -24%    -23%   -19%    -1%   -20%    -18%   -13%    -5%
                           France     -23%    -6%   -22%    -35%    -30%    -10%   -10%   -14%   -10%    -11%    -4%   +150%
                                UK     -0%   +1%    -11%    -29%    -27%    -19%   -14%   -11%   -10%     -4%    -2%    +3%
                          Belgium      -6%   +1%    -14%    -25%    -27%    -12%   -14%   -10%    -5%     -9%    -2%   +15%
                   Czech Republic     -10%    -4%   -10%    -20%    -17%     -9%    -9%   -11%    -3%     -2%    -1%    +6%
                         Slov akia    -15%   -12%   -12%    -16%    -14%    -13%    -6%    -3%    -7%     -1%   +4%    +14%        0%
                            Poland    -12%    -6%   -15%    -20%    -12%     -8%    -7%    -2%   +2%      -3%   +4%    +12%
                                                                                                                                   -20%
                           Finland     -5%   -27%    -6%     -2%    +0%      -3%   -10%    -8%    -5%     -4%   +5%     +2%
                               IRG     -8%   +1%     -6%    -19%    -17%     -8%    -5%    -8%    -0%    +1%    +4%     +6%        -40%
                         Slov enia     -4%    -4%    -8%    -14%    -12%     -3%   -12%   -10%    -3%    +2%    +3%     +5%
                                                                                                                                   -60%
                              Italy    -1%   +5%    -11%    -30%    -23%    -11%    -2%    -0%   +1%     +8%    +13%   +13%
                          Sweden       -1%   +2%     -1%     -7%     -8%    +3%     -3%   +0%     -2%     -7%    -2%    -6%        -80%
                         Lithuania    -18%    -6%    -7%     -7%     -5%     -5%    -7%   +2%    +10%    +8%    +5%     +6%
                        Germany        -3%   +9%    +5%     -15%    -15%     -5%   +0%    -10%   +6%     +9%    +8%     -7%
                            Serbia     -2%   +14%    -4%     -6%     -9%    +2%    +2%    +7%     -4%    +1%    +5%     +3%
                           Greece     +23%   +34%   -16%    +21%    +8%      -1%   +12%   +4%    +0%     +2%    +20%   +34%
                          Portugal    +51%   +66%   +2%     +27%    +41%    +27%   +27%   +27%   +43%    +29%   +14%   +46%

  14 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
05
                                                                       Train departures

2019  2020 comparison

                           -8% passenger train departures -40%
                           [-30% 0%] among countries
                                         to
                                                                                                          largest monthly
                                                                                                          drop of

                           -6% freight train departures                                                   departures
                                                                                                          observed in
                           [-37% to +24%] among countries                                                 April 2020

 The sample used to calculate these figures is specified in the following pages.

                                                                            Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 15
05 // Train departures in 2020

                     The passenger train departures fell by 8% on
                     average in 2020, with largest drop of 40% in April
   Figure 14 – Change in passenger train
   departures, comparison 2020/2019                                                            -30%                                                         Slovenia
                                                                                                           -22%                                             Lithuania
                                                                                                                  -18%                                      Italy
     The number of passenger trains fell                                                                           -18%                                     Croatia
                                                                                                                     -17%                                   Estonia
    during 2020, particularly from March to
                                                                                                                     -17%                                   UK
    June when widespread restrictions                                                                                                                       France
                                                                                                                      -16%
    were imposed in most countries.                                                                                     -15%                                Ireland
     During 2020 there were 34.4 million                                                                                    -13%                            Serbia
                                                                                                                             -12%                           Greece
    passenger trains running in 23
                                                                                                                                    -9%                     Norway
    countries. This was a decrease of 8%                                                                                              -8%                   IRG-Rail
    compared to 2019, when 37.6 million                                                                                                -8%                  Poland
    passenger trains ran. This shows that                                                                                              -8%                  Romania
    many countries were running reduced                                                                                                  -7%                Sweden
    timetables. Capacity of trains had to be                                                                                              -6%               Portugal
    reduced to meet social distancing                                                                                                     -6%               Slovakia
    restrictions, and the number of trains is                                                                                              -6%              Belgium
    not directly linked to passenger                                                                                                             -3%        Finland
                                                                                                                                                 -3%        Austria
    numbers (which fell by 48%).
                                                                                                                                                   -2%      Hungary
     During the first wave of the pandemic                                                                                                           -1%    Bulgaria
    from March 2020, services were kept                                                                                                                0%   Latvia
    running for the use of key workers.                                                                                                                0%   Germany
    Service numbers were adjusted in
    stages as restrictions were relaxed.

 Looking at the full year, 22 of the participating countries                              Although the number of departures increased in some countries
 experienced a fall in passenger train numbers. In Latvia and                            in Q1, there were decreases in nearly all countries in Q2 (with
 Germany, the number of trains was unchanged. The largest                                exception of Bulgaria, where the number remained unchanged).
 decrease was in Slovenia, where numbers fell by 30% due to                              In Q3 and Q4, the number of passenger trains compared to 2019
 suspension of services between 22 March and 10 May. The next                            fell in 18 countries.
 largest decreases were in Lithuania (-22%), Italy and Croatia
 (-18%), Estonia and the UK (-17%).

                                                                                                      The combined monthly data from 17 countries show that
                                                                                                      the number of passenger trains fell by 2% in January.
    Figure 15 – Change in passenger train departures, monthly                                         This can be attributed to strike action in France, where
    comparison                                                                                        the number of trains in January 2020 fell by 29%.
                                                                                                      In March there was a fall of 13%, as restrictions were
              Jan    Feb    Mar   Apr   May   Jun    Jul    Aug    Sep     Oct    Nov   Dec           imposed throughout the month. The largest decrease
Slovenia      +1%    +5%    -51% -100% -75%    -8%    -2%    -2%    +2%     -0%   -64% -52%           was in April where numbers fell by 4%, from 2.8 million
Lithuania     +7%    +11%    -3% -43% -41%    -11%   -32%   -23%    -24%   -23%   -32% -41%
                                                                                                      to 1.6 million. More services started to run from June
   France     -29%   +3%    -37% -79% -56%    -64%    -6%    -1%    +3%    +3%    -14% +148%
      Italy   +0%    +4%    -35% -66% -46%    -23%   -11%   -12%     -7%    -5%    -6%  -9%           due to a relaxation in lockdown measures, and there
  Estonia     +2%    +5%     -3% -45% -45%    -31%   -19%   -20%    -15%   -10%   -11% -10%           were small decreases in July and August.
        UK    +3%    +5%    -10% -44% -39%    -27%   -22%   -20%    -11%   -11%   -14% -8%
   Serbia      -3%   +17%   -32% -100% -44%   +3%    +2%    +0%     +0%    +3%    +4% -5%             In September and October, the number of trains running
               -2%   +4%    -13% -40% -27%    -17%    -7%    -6%     -1%    -2%    -5% +5%            in all participating countries was similar to numbers in
 Norway       +1%    +4%    -11% -32% -23%    -11%    -8%   -14%     -2%    -6%    -4%  -8%
                                                                                                      2019. However, this did vary by country, with decreases
  Poland      +2%    +5%     -9% -32% -29%    -15%    -8%    -7%    +1%     -1%   +0% -1%
 Sweden       +1%    +4%     -2% -17% -22%    -14%   -12%    -6%     -4%    -4%    -6%  -4%           of more than 10% in three countries (UK, Estonia and
Portugal       -1%   +0%    -11% -36% -12%    +0%     -5%    -2%    +0%     -4%    -3%  -5%           Lithuania). In November there was a decrease of more
Slovakia      +1%    +4%    -15% -28% -16%     -4%    -1%    -3%     -4%    -5%    -3%  -2%           than 10% in six countries.
Belgium       +0%    +5%    -12% -41% -11%     -3%    -4%   +1%      -0%    -3%    -5% +3%
 Finland      +4%    +7%     -2%  -3% -12%     -8%    -9%    -5%     -2%    -4%    -3%  -1%           While in April lockdown measures affected train numbers
  Greece      +28%   +31%    -1% -54% -15%    +7%    +2%    +4%     +1%    +7%    -16% -20%
                                                                                                      in all countries, in the second half of the year levels of
   Latvia     +1%    +5%    +0% -5%     -8%    -1%    -1%   +2%     +3%     -1%    -1% +1%
Germany       +2%    +4%     -3% -22% -6%     +3%    +5%    +3%     +6%    +5%    +5% +4%             restrictions varied in each countries. This led to increased
                                                                                                      train numbers in some countries (similar to 2019 levels)
                                                                                                      and decreases in others.
                                                                                                      Germany was the only country where from June onwards
                                   -100% -75% -50% -25% 0%        25%                                 passenger train numbers were higher compared to the
                                                                                                      same month in 2019. The largest decreases in train
                                                                                                      numbers in November and December was in Slovenia.

    16 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
05 // Train departures in 2020

                The freight train departures fell by 6% on average
                in 2020
                                                                                                               The number of freight trains fell during
  Figure 16 – Change in freight train departures, comparison 2020/2019                                         2020, particularly during the months
                                                                                                               April to June.
                           -37%                                                            Latvia
                                                                                                               During 2020 there were 4.0 million
                                       -15%                                                Romania
                                         -13%                                              Spain
                                                                                                               freight trains running in 24 countries.
                                          -12%                                             UK                  This was a decrease of 6% compared to
                                          -12%                                             France              2019, when 4.3 million freight trains ran.
                                           -11%                                            Estonia             There were increases in numbers in
                                            -10%                                           Slovenia            some countries, with the largest
                                               -8%                                         Slovakia            increase in Ireland (+24%). However,
                                                -7%                                        Hungary             this was due to lower-than-expected
                                                -7%                                        Austria             freight train departure figures in Ireland
                                                 -6%                                       IRG                 for 2019, when works resulted in some
                                                 -6%                                       Finland             rail freight services being replaced by
                                                 -6%                                       Serbia
                                                                                                               road haulage for their duration. Greece,
                                                  -6%                                      Belgium
                                                                                                               Lithuania and Croatia also ran more
                                                  -6%                                      Poland
                                                   -5%                                     Italy               freight trains in 2020 compared to 2019.
                                                    -4%                                    Bulgaria            Although numbers were reduced, some
                                                    -4%                                    Germany             countries prioritised freight services as
                                                      -2%                                  Sweden
                                                                                                               passenger train numbers decreased.
                                                      -2%                                  Norway
                                                                                                               Freight services were needed for the
                                                        0%                                 Portugal
                                                                  2%                       Greece              rising demand in goods such as food,
                                                                   3%                      Lithuania           fuel and medicine during the pandemic.
                                                                     6%                    Croatia             Whereas the IRG total was a decrease
                                                                                  24%      Ireland
                                                                                                               of 6%, there were some increases in
                                                                                                               departure numbers (Greece, Lithuania,
                                                                                                               Croatia and Ireland).

The combined monthly data from number of
freight departures fell by 9% and 5% in
January and February, suggesting this was
due to reasons other than the pandemic. The          Figure 17 – Change in freight train departures, monthly comparison
largest decrease was 20% in April, from
287,000 trains to 231,000. The extent varied
                                                                    Jan    Feb     Mar     Apr    May     Jun         Jul         Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec
with falls of over 20% in 8 countries, but
there was an increase of 11% in Greece.                 Latvia      -47%   -43%     -41%   -35%   -36%     -47%       -33%        -31%   -38%   -35%   -29%   -25%
                                                       France       -22%   -6%      -21%   -33%   -28%     -55%       -14%        -13%   -8%    -11%   -6%    +111%
In May the number of freight trains                     Spain       -11%   -3%      -12%   -37%   -33%     -12%       -14%        -16%   -8%    -14%   -5%    +11%

decreased by 18%, and there were smaller                    UK      -6%    -1%      -12%   -30%   -25%     -17%       -13%        -11%   -10%   -6%    -6%    +0%
                                                      Estonia       -19%   -23%     -21%   -21%   -19%     -15%       +1%         +4%    -9%    -7%    -4%    +11%
decreases of 1-7% between June and                  Slovenia         -5%   -5%      -13%   -24%   -19%     -9%        -15%        -13%   -8%    -5%    -3%    -3%
October. The combined numbers increased in          Slovakia        -15%   -9%      -10%   -20%   -17%     -10%       -7%         -7%    -5%    -1%    +2%    +11%
November and December. This was driven                     IRG      -9%    -5%      -9%    -20%   -18%     -11%       -7%         -6%    -1%    -3%    +2%    +14%
by increase in services in Germany and                Finland        -8%   -31%     -7%    -2%    -0%      -4%        -10%        -9%    -1%    -6%    +4%    -0%

Poland.                                                Serbia        -6%   +0%      -9%    -9%    -15%     -4%        -2%         -3%    -7%    -7%    -3%    -7%
                                                     Belgium        -3%    +1%      -5%    -20%   -23%     -9%        -13%        -10%   +1%    -4%    +4%    +15%
The largest decreases were in Latvia, due to           Poland       -14%   -7%      -13%   -19%   -13%     -6%        -7%         -1%    +1%    -2%    +4%    +11%
                                                          Italy      -4%   +3%      -10%   -28%   -21%     -11%       -6%         -6%    -1%    +4%    +11%   +11%
changes in the world market meaning less
                                                    Germany          -5%   -6%      -6%    -18%   -18%     -5%        -4%         -4%    +3%    -0%    +4%    +11%
cargo was transported through Latvian ports,         Sweden          -5%   +2%      -0%    -2%    -7%      +5%        -7%         -1%    -3%    -6%    -3%    +6%
and Russia and Belarus also reducing traffic.         Norway        -4%    +2%      -0%    -0%    -9%      +2%        -0%         +2%    +2%    -9%    -7%    +6%
                                                     Portugal       -10%   +60%     +6%    -4%    -17%     -13%       -12%        -14%   +1%    -5%    -6%    +81%
Lithuania was the only country where freight           Greece       +27%   +13%     -8%    +11%   -9%      -13%       +5%         -2%    -7%    -3%    +3%    +12%
train numbers were higher compared to the           Lithuania       -16%   -5%      -4%    -5%    -5%      +35%       -3%         +8%    +14%   +11%   +10%   +9%
same month in 2019, from June 2020
onwards. Strike action in France in December
2019 and January 2020 affected freight train
numbers, leading to a large increase in                                                                 -30%     0%         30%
December 2020 compared with December
2019.

                                                                                  Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 17
06
                                                                                        Punctuality

           2019  2020 comparison
                                                                                         The % of trains arriving
 17/20 countries                                                                         on-time increased by
 recorded annual improvement
 of punctuality for passenger
 trains
                                                                                   >4    pp for 3 countries
                                                                                   for passenger trains

  16/17 countries                                                                  >9    pp for 2 countries
  recorded annual improvement
                                                                                   for freight trains
  of punctuality for freight trains
 The sample used to calculate these figures is specified in the following pages.

18 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
06 // Punctuality of train services in 2020

                     The punctuality of passenger services improved in
                     almost all countries in 2020
 This measure looks at the percentage of passenger trains that arrived on time/within schedule. In most countries this is measured by
 the number of services that arrive within 5 minutes 0 seconds of the scheduled arrival time, however some countries adopt different
 punctuality thresholds (e.g. within 3 minutes). This difference in thresholds should not affect the data, as the same ‘on-time’ measure
 was used consistently by a country in both 2019 and 2020.

 Figure 18 – Change in percentage points (pp) of passenger trains arriving on time*,                                                        Looking at data for the full
 comparison 2020/2019                                                                                                                       year in 2020, 17 of the 20
                                                                                                                                            countries that submitted
  Romania                                                         5,0pp                                                                     data       reported        an
           UK                                                  4,4pp                                                                        improvement        in     the
    Greece                                                    4,3pp                                                                         punctuality of their services
     Finland                                               3,9pp                                                                            compared with the previous
   Portugal                                             3,5pp
                                                                                                                                            year. The largest increase
   Bulgaria                                           3,3pp
   Belgium
                                                                                                                                            was in Romania where
                                                      3,3pp
    Norway                                           3,1pp                                                                                  punctuality improved from
         Italy                                      3,0pp                                                                                   77% in 2019 to 82% in 2020
   Hungary                                      2,4pp                                                                                       (up 5.0 percentage points).
   Sweden                                      2,3pp                                                                                        There was also notable
     Poland                                   2,2pp                                                                                         improvements in the United
  Germany                                    2,0pp                                                                                          Kingdom (up 4.4pp) and
     Austria                               1,8pp                                                                                            Greece (up 4.3pp). The
   Slovenia                            1,2pp                                                                                                punctuality rates in the
     France                           0,9pp                                                                                                 Netherlands, Croatia and
      Latvia                      0,3pp
                                                                                                                                            Lithuania    were     largely
Netherlands                    0,0pp
    Croatia
                                                                                                                                            unchanged compared with
               0,0pp
  Lithuania -0,3pp                                                                                                                          the previous year.
*
  Threshold used by country: 5min29s for Austria;
5min59s for Belgium, Poland and Sweden; 5min00s or
10min00s for Spain (different between services); 5min00s
                                                                          This pattern of improvements in                        timetable and depart stations on
for all other countries                                                   punctuality can be attributed to                       time. With fewer trains running,
                                                                          multiple factors. The reduction in                     there was less wear and tear on the
                                                                          passenger numbers resulted in less                     network and less congestion. This
                                                                          crowding and subsequently a fall in                    reduced the likelihood of knock-on
   Figure 19 shows how punctuality rates changed over                     the time trains spent at stations                      impacts on other services when
  the course of 2020 (compared to 2019). This                             (dwell time). This meant trains were                   incidents occurred.
  highlights the overall improvements in punctuality                      able to run according to the
  since the start of the pandemic. Increases in January
  and February cannot be attributed to the pandemic as
  they preceded the introduction of restrictive measures
  in most cases.
                                                                          Figure 19 – Change in percentage points (pp) of passenger trains arriving
  By April, all 13 countries reported improvements in                     on-time, monthly comparison
  punctuality rates compared with the previous year.
  These improvements continued in June and July as                                   Jan     Feb     Mar      Apr    May      Jun     Jul     Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec
  many countries eased restrictions.                                          UK    -3.3 pp -4.5 pp -1.2 pp +6.1 pp +6.1 pp +6.8 pp +9.0 pp +5.4 pp +6.1 pp +7.0 pp +11.3 pp+10.4 pp

                                                                          Finland   +13.7 pp +8.4 pp +3.1 pp +3.6 pp +2.8 pp +1.1 pp +2.9 pp +0.1 pp +0.5 pp +3.8 pp +3.1 pp +3.2 pp
   By August, there was increased variation between
  countries. Some countries continued to show                         Portugal      -4.1 pp -2.6 pp +0.4 pp +5.6 pp +6.1 pp +3.7 pp +5.7 pp +5.8 pp +3.9 pp +4.7 pp +6.1 pp +7.3 pp

  substantial improvements compared to the previous                   Belgium       +2.2 pp -0.1 pp +1.3 pp +6.2 pp +5.9 pp +5.4 pp +3.5 pp 0.0 pp +1.8 pp +3.5 pp +6.4 pp +4.5 pp

  year. These include Norway (+6.6pp), Portugal                           Norway    +0.2 pp +3.6 pp +2.0 pp +1.5 pp +4.7 pp +2.4 pp +5.9 pp +6.6 pp +3.4 pp +1.9 pp +3.2 pp +2.9 pp
  (+5.8pp) and the United Kingdom (+5.4pp).                                 Italy   +2.6 pp +0.7 pp +3.3 pp +6.2 pp +5.3 pp +4.4 pp +2.0 pp -1.0 pp +1.0 pp +2.0 pp +9.0 pp +4.0 pp
  However, these improvements were not universal,                     Sweden        +3.3 pp +4.0 pp +2.0 pp +3.0 pp +3.0 pp +3.3 pp +2.6 pp +2.6 pp +1.3 pp +1.6 pp +0.8 pp +0.7 pp
  with Lithuania, France, Italy and Slovenia all reporting                Poland    +2.5 pp -0.1 pp +2.4 pp +4.0 pp +4.2 pp +3.6 pp +2.1 pp +1.2 pp +1.8 pp +3.9 pp +1.9 pp +0.1 pp
  a deterioration in punctuality rates compared to the                Germany       +2.5 pp +0.4 pp +3.1 pp +5.0 pp +4.6 pp +2.4 pp +2.3 pp +0.9 pp +1.0 pp +0.0 pp +0.3 pp +2.8 pp
  previous year.
                                                                      Slovenia      -1.2 pp -2.0 pp -1.2 pp         +3.9 pp +6.1 pp -0.2 pp -1.0 pp -1.3 pp -0.9 pp -0.5 pp +1.6 pp
  In most cases, this reflected already high levels of                    France    -2.7 pp -1.9 pp -0.6 pp +3.5 pp -0.1 pp +2.3 pp +2.4 pp -1.5 pp +1.3 pp +1.9 pp +6.5 pp +8.1 pp
  performance in 2019 (for example, Lithuania reported                     Latvia   +0.9 pp +0.4 pp +0.1 pp +0.1 pp +0.3 pp +0.4 pp +1.0 pp +0.0 pp -0.1 pp +0.4 pp +0.1 pp +0.2 pp
  a punctuality rate of 96.9% in August 2019).                       Lithuania      +1.6 pp -0.4 pp -0.8 pp +0.3 pp -1.8 pp -0.4 pp -0.2 pp -3.7 pp -3.0 pp +0.2 pp +1.6 pp +0.2 pp

   By the end of 2020, punctuality had improved in all
  countries. This is likely to reflect the tightening of
  restrictions in many countries      and the fact that
  punctuality rates are typically lower in winter months                                                                     0       5        10
  as weather conditions worsen.

                                                                                         Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets // 19
06 // Punctuality of train services in 2020

                    The punctuality of freight services increased by
                    more than 5 pp in five countries
This section looks at the punctuality of freight services in 2020 compared to the previous year. Countries use different punctuality
thresholds, ranging from within five minutes to within 60 minutes of scheduled arrival time. Similar to passenger services
punctuality, these differences should not affect the analysis as the same thresholds were used in both years.

                                                           Figure 20 – Change in percentage points (pp) of freight trains arriving on-time*,
                                                           comparison 2020/2019
 Looking at data for 2020, most
countries reported improvements in                           Finland                                                           10,4pp
the punctuality of freight services                              Italy                                                     9,0pp
compared with 2019. The largest                            Portugal                                                7,0pp
increase was in Finland where                              Hungary                                                6,7pp
punctuality increased from 71.7% in                        Sweden                                            5,1pp
2019 to 82.2% in 2020 (up 10.4 pp).                          Poland                                        4,5pp
                                                            Norway                                        4,2pp
It should be noted that Finland
                                                             Austria                                     3,8pp
reported a substantial increase in                         Belgium                                     3,5pp
freight punctuality in January and                        Germany                                      3,4pp
February, therefore these year-on-                          Croatia                                    3,3pp
year improvements cannot solely be                        Lithuania                                    3,3pp
attributed to the effects of the                              Latvia                                2,6pp
pandemic. There were also notable                            France                             1,1pp
                                                           Slovenia                             1,1pp
improvements in Italy (up 9.0 pp),
                                                          Romania                               1,0pp
Portugal (up 7.0 pp) and Hungary (up                       Bulgaria       -1,4pp
5.1 pp). The only country where
punctuality worsened was in Bulgaria
                                                          *
(down 1.4 pp).                                              Threshold used by country: 5min59s for Sweden; 15min00s for Germany and Portugal; 15min59s for
                                                          Poland; 30min00s for Austria and Belgium; 60min00s for Romania and Spain; 5min00s for all other countries

Like passenger trains, the reduction in freight services led to                           allocation with less passenger trains. There were greater
improvements in punctuality. As the number of trains on the                               improvements in freight punctuality compared to passenger
network was reduced, there was less network congestion and                                services. Of the 17 countries that submitted data on both
conflicts between train paths. With fewer passengers                                      freight and passenger punctuality, 14 showed greater
travelling, freight services were prioritised in some countries.                          improvements in freight punctuality than for passenger
This meant that freight trains were given priority in slot                                services.

                                                                                                                  Figure 21 shows how freight punctuality
    Figure 21 – Change in percentage points (pp) of freight trains arriving on-                                  rates have changed over the course of
    time, comparison 2020/2019
                                                                                                                 2020 (compared to the previous year). This
              Jan     Feb     Mar      Apr    May      Jun       Jul     Aug        Sep   Oct   Nov    Dec
                                                                                                                 highlights the overall improvements in
                                                                                                                 freight punctuality since the start of the
  Finland    +32.8 pp+24.6 pp+13.5 pp +8.4 pp +5.3 pp +5.0 pp +8.8 pp +5.6 pp +2.1 pp +5.2 pp +3.9 pp +6.0 pp    pandemic. As with passenger services,
     Italy   +5.6 pp +5.1 pp +14.6 pp+29.0 pp+20.5 pp+12.6 pp +6.0 pp +4.0 pp +2.0 pp +2.0 pp +10.0 pp +2.0 pp   despite    some       countries    showing
  Portugal   +9.6 pp +9.2 pp +7.1 pp +14.7 pp+11.0 pp +4.5 pp +3.1 pp +8.6 pp -0.7 pp +0.9 pp +5.9 pp +11.0 pp   improvements in punctuality in January to
                                                                                                                 March, these increases cannot be
  Sweden     -2.0 pp +7.0 pp +4.0 pp +3.0 pp +10.0 pp+10.0 pp +5.0 pp +8.0 pp +3.0 pp +2.0 pp +1.0 pp +3.0 pp
                                                                                                                 attributed to the pandemic as they
   Poland    +8.6 pp +4.4 pp +6.0 pp +10.7 pp +9.7 pp +6.0 pp +1.9 pp -1.1 pp +1.0 pp +4.7 pp +2.4 pp +1.9 pp    preceded the introduction of restrictive
  Norway     +9.9 pp +8.2 pp +2.6 pp +0.6 pp +3.2 pp +0.6 pp +5.5 pp +2.2 pp +1.6 pp +4.0 pp +7.2 pp +3.9 pp     measures in most cases.
  Belgium    +0.1 pp -5.1 pp -1.7 pp +8.9 pp +1.4 pp +7.9 pp +5.8 pp +3.0 pp +6.2 pp +5.1 pp +5.6 pp +7.7 pp
                                                                                                                  From April to July, 11 countries reported
 Germany     +4.9 pp +0.7 pp +2.1 pp +10.9 pp+10.0 pp +5.8 pp +6.4 pp +6.6 pp +1.7 pp -2.8 pp -2.8 pp +0.8 pp
                                                                                                                 improvements       in    punctuality   rates
 Lithuania   +4.5 pp +5.4 pp +4.6 pp +6.2 pp +5.8 pp +7.1 pp +9.6 pp +1.1 pp -0.3 pp +2.2 pp -1.7 pp -0.9 pp
                                                                                                                 compared to the previous year. These
    Latvia   +2.5 pp +1.3 pp +4.9 pp +3.5 pp +4.1 pp +2.9 pp +3.0 pp +1.4 pp -0.6 pp +2.4 pp +1.3 pp +2.9 pp     improvements were greater than those
   France    -2.5 pp +2.2 pp +4.3 pp +5.4 pp +2.4 pp +6.0 pp +5.0 pp -4.3 pp -4.5 pp +2.0 pp +5.2 pp +8.1 pp     reported for passenger services, and
                                                                                                                 punctuality in Italy increased by 29
 Slovenia    +4.6 pp +6.1 pp +2.3 pp +2.5 pp -6.4 pp +0.5 pp +1.9 pp -2.6 pp -1.6 pp -2.2 pp +2.4 pp +5.7 pp
                                                                                                                 percentage points. From August onwards,
                                                                                                                 the improvements were smaller. This
                                                                                                                 reflects increased network activity with a
                                                                                                                 rise in freight and passenger train numbers
                                                -5    0      5    10     15    20                                compared to earlier in the year.

  20 // Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on 2020 railway markets
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