Illegal migration as a political weapon
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August 5, 2021
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania
Illegal migration as a political weapon
About the situation on the Belarusian-Lithuanian border
Jakob Wöllenstein, Elisabeth Bauer, Fausta Šimaitytė
Belarus will even double and take place from a total
The Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has of four Iraqi cities.
repeatedly threatened the EU to allow refugees Border security is currently given priority. Barbed
from war zones to enter the EU in response to the wire is to be built along the entire border. The
sanctions imposed on his country. The main establishment of a permanent border location is also
target is Lithuania, which has an almost 680 under discussion. The technical means for border
kilometer long and mostly unprotected border surveillance alone would cost 400 million euros. The
with Belarus. The increase in illegal migrant EU has so far pledged 12 million euros. So far, the
flows from Iraq and African countries is actively Lithuanian government has budgeted 100 million
promoted by the Belarusian regime. According to euros for overcoming the crisis.
Ylva Johansson, the EU Commissioner for Home
Affairs, this is not just a migration crisis, but an (Re) actions by Lithuania and the EU
act of aggression aimed at destabilization.
On July 2nd the Lithuanian government declared a
Data on illegal migration to Lithuania from third state of emergency2 due to the migration crisis and
countries via Belarus called the European border protection agency
FRONTEX for support on July 9th. FRONTEX
The number of illegal migrants who have entered announced on July 12th a Rapid Border Intervention
Lithuania via Belarus since the beginning of 2021 is Mission to the Lithuanian-Belarusian border.
4,110. This number is 44 times higher than the total Furthermore, they plan to provide additional support
number from 2020. 2,500 people in one month - that with personnel and special equipment. 100 Frontex
would be almost 70,000 people in proportion to officials are already in Lithuania.
Germany1. These numbers are reminiscent of the
situation with refugees in Germany from 2015-2016. Germany has sent 30 border guards bilaterally,
Lithuanian border guards suggest that in around 90 Latvia and Estonia is also providing support in this
percent of cases they succeed in detecting illegal area.
border crossings and in registering migrants. Most of
the others head straight for Western Europe, as Greece and Spain pledged assistance with exchange
Lithuania is only a stopover for them. of experience and Poland and Croatia pledged
humanitarian assistance.
A deportation of the migrants to Belarus is not At the EU level, the problem was discussed on March
possible because the Belarusian Foreign Ministry 12th, 2021 at the joint hearing of the EP committees
had already announced the initiation of the procedure for internal and foreign affairs and at the meeting of
to suspend the readmission agreement on May 28, the EU Council of Foreign Ministers. ‘It seems that
2021 - as a reaction to the fourth sanction package the Belarusian authorities are now facilitating
of the EU. Two days earlier, Lukashenka had irregular migration, possibly in retaliation for EU
declared that it would no longer stop illegal migrants restrictive measures and in response to Lithuanian
and drug trafficking at the EU border. support to civil society in Belarus,’ said EU
Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson.
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister recently held direct
talks with Ankara and Baghdad about taking back The Lithuanians also see the development as a
illegal migrants and limiting flights to Minsk. deliberately induced hybrid aggression, which is
However, without success - from August the flights to primarily directed against their country, but also
against the EU as a whole. So far Poland has only
1 FAZ, Lukaschenkos Rache, 27 Juli 2021. 2 http://www.infolex.lt/ta/702551Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 2
2
reported a few dozen illegal border crossings and the - The classification of illegal migrants - with the
Latvians even fewer. exception of women with children, pregnant women,
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis spoke minors and the disabled - as ‘accomplices’ in the
out in favor of a European readmission strategy at organization of illegal migration and a relevant
the Council of Ministers meeting, ‘because one residence regime;
country alone - be it Lithuania, be it Greece or Spain - The implementation of a clear information campaign
- faces a rather difficult path when it comes to about the real situation of illegal migrants in the
sending back people who have entered illegally. countries of origin.
Secondly, we have to be very strict with the regimes
that use this type of weapon.’ Should the hybrid aggression persist and worsen, the
government will be asked, after assessing the risk, to
The German Chancellor Angela Merkel called the open consultations with NATO member states, to call
actions of the Belarusian authorities ‘unacceptable’ on the member states of the European Union, the
on July 22nd and spoke out in favor of the creation of European Commission and other institutions to show
a common European asylum policy. Earlier, during solidarity in combating hybrid aggression3.
his visit to Lithuania on May 5th, the President of the
European Council, Charles Michel pledged solidarity In addition, a tightening of the law was initiated
and support for Lithuania on behalf of the EU states. which, among other factors, is intended to deprive
On July 9th a call was published by the foreign illegal migrants of the right to appeal after a first
committees of the parliaments of the USA, the UK, instance decision on their status. It was decided to
and ten EU countries urging new sanctions against shorten the asylum procedure to ten days and to
Lukashenka's regime because of the targeted restrict the free movement of migrants who have
fomenting of a migration crisis. illegally crossed the border. The Seimas has
approved the proposal that detaining an illegal
On July 31st-August 1st, the EU Commissioner Ylva migrant can take up to six months.
Johansson visited Lithuania and spoke out in favor of
a physical barrier at the border. However, she also Further amendments to the legal acts stipulate that
said that she has no budget for it. During her visit to the presence in the country of foreigners who have
Lithuania, the Commissioner was open to further applied for asylum shortly after crossing the border
discussing the special situation for Lithuania. at border control posts or transit zones does not
count as entry into the territory of Lithuania until a
Domestic policy steps to deal with illegal decision has been made to accept an asylum seeker.
migration
It was also decided that the rights of asylum seekers
On July 13th, the Seimas passed a resolution ‘On may be temporarily restricted in the event of a war or
Coping with Hybrid Aggression’, which states that an emergency situation with a mass influx of illegal
countries hostile to Lithuania are engaging in hybrid migrants if they cannot be guaranteed for objective
aggression against Lithuania. reasons, with the exception of the right to material
reception and medical assistance.
Thereby creating a threatening situation on the
Lithuanian state boarder, which is also an external It remains to be seen whether the authorities, who
boarder of the EU and NATO. are already overwhelmed, can cope with the
accelerated procedure. Nevertheless, in the opinion
The resolution passed calls on the government to of the legal experts, it is not the change in the law on
take the following measures: immigrants that accelerates the asylum procedure,
- The use of the armed forces to protect the border; but the practical success in returning rejected asylum
- Immediate establishment of a physical obstacle at seekers to their countries of origin that will be
the border; decisive for coping with the migration crisis4.
- Identification and penalisation of the organizers of
the migration flows including natural and legal
persons in Belarus;
3 Resolution „Über die Bewältigung einer hybriden 4https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/dainius-
Aggression’ (Projekt Nr. XIVP-723 (2)): https://e- zalimas-darkart-apie-krizes-valstybe-negali-buti-kvailiu-
seimas.lrs.lt/portal/legalAct/lt/TAP/51e08400e39611eb866f ikaite-56-1541244?copied
e2e083228059Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 3
3
Criticism of changes in the law should influence Belarus through diplomatic
channels, also with the help of mediators. The right-
The Lithuanian Red Cross and several human rights wing populist forces that had gathered under the
organizations criticise the changes made to the law banner of the ‘family march’ also accused the
on the legal situation of migrants. They state the government saying that the migrant crisis was
changes would violate Lithuania's international caused by Lithuania's tough stance against the
obligations and violate the rights of refugees. Some Minsk regime and suggested a dialogue with
legal experts point to the possible unconstitutionality Lukashenko.
of the changes in the law because of the unsecured
legal remedies after a refusal of asylum decision. The President Nauseda has criticized such proposals,
head of the migration authority Evelina Gudzinskaitė indicating that a change of course in foreign policy
rejects this criticism. According to the EU directive and a dialogue with the dictator would be completely
and EU practice, one court is sufficient for asylum unacceptable. The sanctions against Belarus were
examination procedures, as the diverse practice of not imposed by Lithuania, but by the EU7.
other countries proves5.
Furthermore, the leader of the Social Democrats,
In light of the long-standing disagreements between Vilija Blinkevičiūtė explicitly formulated that the
the president and the government, President Gitanas current foreign policy course of Lithuania should not
Nausėda hesitated to sign the package of be changed but stated that the consequences could
amendments. He particularly criticized the violation be better assessed.
of human rights and called on parliament to rectify
the deficiencies in the law6. The parliamentary In addition, the representatives of the opposition
speaker Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen promised to review decided to turn to the President of the European
the law in the course of the autumn sittings. Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with a request to
review the Lithuanian government’s plan to build a
physical barrier on the border with Belarus. The
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė also defended the
‘Peasant Party’ pointed out that there was already a
changes in the law by stating that neither Lithuania
precedent at European level with Hungary, which
nor the illegally entered migrants were interested in
had lost the case relating to border construction
an excessive procedure.
before the European Court of Justice8.
However, it does not exclude adapting the decisions Opposition leader Skvernelis criticized the EU, which
regarding migrants to the changing situation if so far has only provided humanitarian aid, but has
concrete amendment proposals with formulations made no contribution to solving the problem9.
are introduced. She rejected the criticism of a Domestic Effects of the Migrant Crisis
possible violation of human rights, arguing that the
onslaught of migrants was triggered precisely The migration crisis may lead to a strengthening of
because Lithuania had actively defended the populist and subversive forces. So far, no radical
Belarusians' right to free elections vis-à-vis the party in Lithuania has won more than two percent of
regime. the vote, but society's distrust of political parties is
growing. The reception centers for the migrants close
Reaction of the opposition to their places of residence are more than
controversial among the local population and are
The chairman of the opposition ‘Peasant Party’ causing increasing social tensions. Prime Minister
Ramūnas Karbauskis opposes the government's Ingrida Šimonytė warned against turning the hybrid
crisis management and is convinced that attempts to
scare off migrants through information campaigns do
not make sense. According to Karbauskis, Lithuania
5 7 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/nauseda-su-
https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1454247/migracijos- diktatoriumi-nesikalbesime-taip-kaip-jis-galbut-
departamento-vadove-laukia-nausedos-paraso-po- tikisi.d?id=87800879
istatymu-del-migrantu-teisiu 8 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/karbauskis-musu-
6 BNS, Jul 14, Lithuanian president: we must respect
uzsienio-politika-migrantu-klausimu-yra-
migrants' rights, not to become walk-through yard. apgailetina.d?id=87763529
9 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/skvernelis-
negaili-kritikos-valdziai-jie-sugeba-kartoti-2009-uju-klaidas-
ir-sukelti-visiska-chaosa.d?id=87796401Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 4
4
attack into a hate crisis when hatred of the ‘strangers’ fears of society, the minister assured that the armed
gets incited.10 forces would be deployed to protect the population if
necessary, in order to relieve the border guards of
The protests against the accommodation of migrants this function.14 The Head of State Nausėda is in
are particularly strong in the opposition-ruled district agreement with the Defense Minister and considers
of Šalčininkai. During protests in the Dieveniškės and the state of emergency as a last resort.
Rūdninkai communities, subversive slogans were
heard among other things. The situation at the The opposition is divided over the introduction of the
military training area in Rūdininkai escalated when state of emergency. The chairman of the ‘Farmers'
around 150 protesters blocked the entrance to the Party’ Karbauskis speaks out against it because he
military compound and lit fires there. The police had fears that this could stop the protests directed against
to use tear gas to evict the protesters and two police the migrants. Opposition leader Skvernelis, on the
officers were injured. The police have launched a other hand, believes the introduction of a state of
pre-trial investigation into the organization of the emergency in the border areas is necessary in order
recent riots near the Rūdninkai military training to prevent greater damage, but also to prevent
area.11 potential provocations.
Schemes of illegal migration
Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė stated that residents
in the Šalčininkai district were deliberately incited to Research by journalists from the Lithuanian
protest against the accommodation of migrants and broadcaster LRT, the Russian publication
that a dialogue with the local population was Mediazona and the ‘Scanner Project’ as well as
prevented by the position of MEP Valdemaras investigations by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense
Tomaševskis from the Party of Lithuanian Poles.12 show that the regime in Belarus is directly involved in
She further argues that the communities led by the the organization of illegal migration.
ruling coalition or related parties are willing to engage The latest video recordings from ‘Frontex’ show that
in constructive dialogue resulting in less protest in Belarusian official bodies are involved in the event.15
those areas.
The Lithuanian secret service sees no anti-state According to statements made by migrants,
forces involved in the protests. At the same time, it Facebook groups in various languages of the Middle
has pointed out that the radicalization of sentiments East have been appearing since March, promoting
in Lithuanian society and an escalation of the Lithuania as the ‘best entry point into the EU and
situation could be in the interests of hostile states.13 Western Europe’.
In response to the worsening situation in Rūdininkai, For four years now there have been four regular Iraqi
the Conservative Interior Minister Agnė Bilotaitė Airlines flights a week from Baghdad to Minsk. But
suggested that consideration should be given to the issuing of visas to Belarus for tourist purposes
declaring a state of emergency in the border areas. was only resumed this spring. Since May 10th Minsk
In such a case, border control would be taken over is served by another Iraqi airline, Fly Baghdad. There
by the armed forces and access to the territory of are scheduled flights from Turkey to Minsk every day.
Lithuania would be blocked.
According to the sources mentioned above, criminals
Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas is against the offer potential ‘refugees’ Belarusian visas as well as
imposition of a state of emergency. There is still no flight tickets and travel vouchers to Minsk and
threat to the constitutional order. According to the guarantee them the border crossing to Lithuania. The
defense minister, the imposition of a state of legal part of the trip to Belarus is handled by a
emergency would worsen the situation in light of the network of Iraqi and Belarusian travel agencies. On
upcoming Russian-Belarusian military exercise the Belarusian side, the state travel company
‘Zapad’, among other factors. In order to allay the ‘Central Spa’ is to receive tourists from Iraq and
10 https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/i- 13 Lithuania's SSD sees no anti-state groups being active
simonyte-ruosemes-atremti-40-tukst-migrantu-antpludi-o- among anti-migrant protesters, VILNIUS, Jul 27, BNS.
dabar-esame-pasimete-56-1534396?copied 14https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1458692/ministras
11 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/bilotaite-del-
-kariuomene-prisides-prie-migrantu-apgyvendinimo-vietu-
ivykiu-rudninkuose-tai-buvo-pikta-tycine- apsaugos?fbclid=IwAR0784UXZ5zLUCu1uljTcz0Sz6yltejx
provokacija.d?id=87802247 VyTGXshEjd_-Uus6HW1K5Zov0aY
12 https://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu/lietuva/i- 15https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/lietuvoje/2/1461903/ministerij
simonyte-itampa-salcininku-kraste-kursto-v-tomasevskis- a-turi-galimu-irodymu-kad-baltarusijos-pareigunai-
56-1541072 dalyvauja-neteisetos-migracijos-organizavimeKonrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 5
5
accommodate them in hotels in Minsk for one to four guards were not aware of any incident at the border
days before they are chauffeured to the Lithuanian and that Belarus was responsible for what happened
border by smugglers. on the Belarusian side. At the same time, several
Lithuanian media portals received threatening letters
According to press reports, the border is usually in which a terrorist attack on several larger shopping
crossed on foot at night with appropriate briefing by centers, office buildings and authorities was
the ‘smugglers’. The ‘tour’ to Lithuania would cost the announced as an act of revenge for the ‘Muslim
potential refugee around 6,000 dollars. Should they brothers’.18
want to be transported further - to Germany, for
example - the price would rise to up to 15,000 dollars. A week earlier, Lukashenko had insulted Lithuanians
Some make the way from Minsk across the border as ‘Nazis’ because they allegedly tortured the
without ‘helpers’ on their own, following instructions migrants in Lithuania and deported them to Belarus,
from their ‘predecessors’ who have already reached increasing the possibility of radical and armed
Lithuania. Apparently, the regime in Minsk also Muslims entering the country for retaliation.
derives considerable financial benefits from the
scheme: each Iraqi has to leave 3,000 dollars as a An extraordinary session of the Lithuanian
deposit when issuing visas. This amount will be Parliament will take place on August 10, 2021, which
collected in favor of the Belarusian state if the ‘tourist’ is expected to decide on the imposition of a state of
does not return from the ‘trip’ to Belarus. If this emergency and the construction of the border wall.
calculation is correct, the regime in Minsk could have
collected more than 2 million euros from the more Domestic outlook
than 1,000 Iraqis who have already been arrested in
Lithuania. Despite the tense situation, there is a general
consensus that Lithuania must protect the EU's
The latest developments external border. Prime Minister Šimonytė assured
that Lithuania will not become a transit route for
In response to the increasing number of incoming migrants to other EU countries such as Germany or
illegal migrants, the Ministry of the Interior decided Sweden. However, voices calling for a review of the
on August 2, 2021 to prevent illegal migrants from EU migration policy at the European level are getting
crossing the border, if necessary with force. Migrants louder.
should be referred to border control posts or
embassies to apply for asylum there. It is expected that the number of migrants arriving
illegally in Lithuania will continue to increase. At least
Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis in an 10,000 more illegal migrants are expected by the end
interview said that the Belarusian regime has started of the year.
talks with West and North African countries in order
to start further trips to Belarus.16 However, the The Lithuanian border guards are currently planning
ambassador of the European Union (EU) to Iraq, to purchase 400 residential containers to
Martin Huth, has received information that flights accommodate the illegal migrants, mainly women
from Iraq to Minsk are to be suspended for the next and children, who have arrived in Lithuania. This
ten days. Allegedly ‘Iraq Airways’ informed all travel measure alone could cost Lithuania around 200
companies in the country about the suspended million euros.
flights.17
As a consequence, further tensions in the population
In addition, the Belarusian side is increasingly using are expected. The situation could develop in such a
verbal attacks as a means of propaganda against way that the state can no longer accept any more
Lithuania. Lukashenko has ordered an investigation migrants. The former chairman of the constitutional
into the alleged death of an Iraqi on the Lithuanian- court has pointed out that the social order of the
Belarusian border. Thereupon the Lithuanian Prime country could be endangered by the situation.
Minister Šimonytė stated that the Lithuanian border
16https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/pasaulyje/6/1462515/landsbe
rgio-interviu-politico-lukasenka-derasi-su-afrikos-salimis- 18 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/policija-pradejo-
del-nauju-kelioniu-krypciu tyrima-del-grasinimo-ivykdyti-teroristini- nusikaltima-tarp-
17 https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/es-ambasadorius-
galimu-taikiniu-akropolis-ozas-delfi.d?id=87875153
panasu-kad-skrydziai-is-irako-i-minska-kuriam-laikui-
atsaukiami.d?id=87874645Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Foundation Office Belarus/Lithuania August 2021 6
6
In addition, the former President Dalia Grybauskaitė for economic migrants the faster Lukashenka's
warned of a possible provocation of armed conflict on calculations can be thwarted. Until then, however,
the border since the Lithuanian military is involved in Poland in particular will have to adjust to secondary
the border security there. migration flows.
Conclusion
Viewed from the wider angle of Europe, the situation
Since those arriving are evidently primarily economic on the Belarus-Lithuania border is only a ‘subchapter’
refugees who are able to afford the expensive on the subject of flight and migration. Both the
journey by plane, the Lithuanians' strategy of working Lithuanians and Brussels aptly pointed out that this
together with the countries of origin to establish is a challenge for the EU as a whole. Common
identity and possibly limiting travel capacities and to answers must therefore be found, for example in
rely on information campaigns seems correct in order relation to asylum legislation, external border
to counter the fake news spread there. protection and the question of how to counter the
transparent strategy of smugglers to combine illegal
Should this group of people decrease in number, border crossings with the submission of (foreseeably
Chechnya in particular would stand out as a possible unsuccessful) asylum applications. The fact that the
further region of origin, since the residents there can problem of illegal border crossings is now affecting a
freely enter Belarus as citizens of Russia. Other country and a region in Lithuania for which the great
larger groups, such as people from Afghanistan, refugee crisis of 2015 seemed far away could at best
could only reach Belarus if the Central Asian states lead to a growing European-wide awareness of the
and Russia allow them to roam freely through their common concern making it it easier to find joint
territory or actively organize their onward journey, solutions. The fact that southern European countries
which is currently rather unlikely. were among the first to assure Lithuania of their
solidarity is a good and important sign.
On the other hand, it is important to protect the EU's
external border and to build sufficient capacities to
provide for the (still) arriving migrants properly and in
accordance with (human) rights and statutes. It goes
without saying that people who are actually entitled
to asylum must be helped and this is not questioned
by the Lithuanian government. However, the faster
the test procedures are completed and the clearer it
can be communicated to the outside world that
Lithuania does not grant free entry and onward travel
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V.
Jakob Wöllenstein, Elisabeth Bauer, Fausta Šimaitytė
Foreign representative Office Belarus / Office Baltic States
European and international cooperation.
www.kas.de
Jakob.Woellenstein@kas.de / Elisabeth.Bauer@kas.de
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